And finally, after all the build-up, it's the World Cup Final. After all the hype after the Group Stages around the South American teams it's 2 European teams that will contest this match, Spain and Holland. Both are considered great underachievers at international level and neither have won the World Cup before, so we will have a new name on the trophy too. As I have already gone into great depth in previous blogs about line-ups and formations I will assess the key men for each team this time.
Spain v Holland, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Sunday 11th July
The Key Men
Spain
Iker Casillas
'San Iker' has not been his usual reliable self over the past season, but looked like he might be back to something approaching his best in the Semi-Final against Germany. He made some good saves in the match and will surely have regained some of the confidence he has lost after a season of dropping one clanger after another for Real Madrid. When in form Casillas is a brilliant goalkeeper and one of my favourites, du mostly to him going against the modern trend of having some absolute monsters between the sticks that most clubs seem to be going for. Whilst this does make the goal look smaller and coming for crosses easier, I personally prefer agility over these attributes. And that is something that Casillas has in abundance.
Carles Puyol
If you are a Sun reader you will have seen Terry 'El Tel' Venables (last seen 'aiding' Steve McClarens successful reign as England coach) deriding Puyol as Spain's weak link. I'd completely disagree with this assessment and like to personally call for that newspaper to either get some pundits who know what they're on about or to stop printing! I'll begin by saying that I'm sure Terry would no doubt refer to John Terry as one of the best central defenders in the world. I would then add that Puyol wrote the book on being a limited, but inspiring captain and leader. Essentially they are the same player, only I'd still have Puyol as a slightly better footballer, but that's just personal opinion. Puyol might not be Spain's captain (that's Casillas) but he is still a commanding leader. He is a brave player, and a clever one who knows when to take a booking or concede a freekick to benfit the team effort. He marshalls the backline and is more than happy to give the ball to his technically superior colleagues to lead the attack. In short, Venables is a moron.
Xavi and Iniesta
As seems to be the fashion I have classed these 2 as one player. And I really think they are almost 1 brain in 2 bodies, their understanding is almost telepathic! Xavi is the best passer on the planet, having made well over 500 so far this tournament, eclipsing anyone else involved, and over 75% have found there target. This is a truly outstanding achievement. Iniesta plays a more advanced role, but you can see he is always available for Xavi to pass to and then set off on the attack with his dribbling skills or lay the ball back to Xavi and move to a new position for another pass. It is this constant pass and move, tiki-taka, style that makes Spain so hard to beat. They are so happy on the ball that even close marking doesn't seem to ruffle their feathers! They just spin around give the ball, then position themselves for a possible return. Apart from the attacking benfits, the defensive protection this ball retention gives is invaluable. Most games Spain will have around 60% possession and put simply, when they have the ball the opposition can't score. I think this is a massively underappreciated skill that Xavi and Iniesta in particular have perfected. They are also tireless in their efforts to press the opposition when they don't have the ball to force mistakes and gain the ball back. They often do this high up the pitch so that there is even less threat from the other team. Some might find this boring, but personally I think it's a brilliant tactic.
David Villa
My choice for 3 or 4 years now as the best striker in world football. He plays in a sort of Thierry Henry-esque style, coming in from the wing, bearing down on goal. And for me he is just as good. He hasn't always been at the best clubs, but he has never scored less than 15 goals in a season since turning pro. Bear in mind this is better than Owen, Drogba, Raul, Henry, Shearer and Torres. No mean feat! He can score with his left and right feet as well as his head, from close range, long range and even takes a good freekick when called upon. Whilst many players seem to be either 'forwards' or 'non-scoring strikers' in modern formations, Villa is a goalscorer plain and simple. This team has not always looked great in attack at this tournament and Villa's goals have dragged Spain through and see him leading the chase for the Golden Boot, an honour he will surely win if he adds to his tally in this match. He has finally got his big move, at 28, to Barcelona, and I would expect to see he and Messi tearing defences apart next season.
Holland
Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong
These 2 are the midfield pivot Holland work from. They provide extra protection to Holland's defence and allow the attackers to do their stuff knowing that they are covered. Holland's defence is a well drilled unit, but Gregory Van Der Wiel aside, they are an ordinary bunch. Van Maarwijk has obviously recognised this and plays both these 2, slightly different, defensive midfielders. Van Bommel is possibly the most unashamedly dirty footballer the game currently has! He is the master of the niggly foul, shirt pull, slightly late challenge, but has also pefected doing it when he is less likely to get a booking. A lot of people will tell you that he's a horrible player, and they might be right, but this team wouldn't be half as good without him in it. He is the difference between Marco Van Basten's team at Euro 2008 and this version. Van Basten banished him form the squad and Van Maarwijk (his father-in-law!) has reaped the rewards of reinstating him. Nigel De Jong is the more physical presence. He is an absolute beast of a man who using this physicality to its full effect when trying to get the ball from the opposition. I thought he was absolutely fantastic at Man City last season and has been again in this tournament. He wins the ball and gives it to someone with more ability, and in this modern 4-2-3-1 formation that is his job, and he is fantastic at it. These 2 will be key to Hollands battle as they will be up against Alonso, Xavi and Iniesta. These 3 rarely give the ball away, and I would expect these 2 to try and impose themselves on Spain and try to disrupt their flowing football.
Wesley Sneijder
This is a man who has recovered form the disappointment of being bombed out of Real Madrid last summer to possibly become World Player of the Year! He was a casualty of the change in leadership at the Bernabeu last summer and Jose Mourinho took a punt on him that has been handsomely justified with some fantastic performances leading Inter Milan to an unprecedented treble. He plays behind the forwards in a central playmaker role. He looks for passes, shooting opportunities and space to exploit in the oppositions defence. He has got a share of the Golden Boot so far, although more than 1 goal was very dubiously his, and will look to score again to win that honour from midfield. With Robben missing early on and Van Persie yet to hit top form, Sneijder has been key to Hollands progression so far. For them to have a chance aginst this brilliant Spain team he will have to be excellent again. Spain will not let Holland have a lot of chances, so Sneijder needs to make the most of the one's that come their way.
Arjen Robben
The ex-Chelsea man came into the tournament off the back of a fantastic season in Germany for Bayern Munich, but carrying an injury. Now this shouldn't come as a shock to anyone that has followed his career! If he wasn't so prone to injury he would probably be the best winger in the world. Whilst I personally hate his pathetic swan-diving at the slightest touch then performing about 3 full rolls whilst in mock agony, I am not foolish enough to not recognise his great talent. He is almost as fast on the ball as off it and has great dribbling skills which put defneders on the back foot and off balance. This often opens up opportunities for himself or his team-mates and is a dying skill in the modern game unfortunately, as it is also one of the most exciting. A lot of coaches would try and drum this out of him, like Mourinho with Joe Cole, but he has been fortunate that in Van Gall and Van Maarwijk he has 2 that nurture this ability. Sergio Ramos and Joan Capdevilla are no slouches, but they will have their work cut out when Robben pops up on their flank!
Overall Assessment
It pains me to say it a bit, but I think Spain will come out victors in a dull game. With so much on the line I can't see Holland attacking as much as they might, but I think this is th only way to beat Spain. If you set up to counter attack them, then you need to regain possession. And as the German team found out in the Semi-Fianl that is easier said than done! Spain probably can play better than they have, but the simple fact is that they haven't needed to. They have the possession game down to a fine art and will no doubt dominate it again. I think we will probably see the game decided by a slice of luck for Holland or a David Villa piece of magic for Spain.
Betting
As I've mentioned, I do not see this being a goalfest. I would go under 2.5 at a widely available 1/2. I would look at a Spain 1-0 victory at a top priced 11/2 with Victor Chandler. I would probably also bet on a draw/Spain in the half-time/full-time market with 4/1 widely available.
Saturday, 10 July 2010
Friday, 9 July 2010
Battle of the best loser...
Tomorrow night sees the 3rd and 4th place play-off in the World Cup. Traditionally this game has not been taken that seriously and it's fairly easy to understand why! Can anyone from outside the countries involved remember any of these games or the results? Didn't think so!
Uruguay v Germany, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Saturday 10th July
Defence
I have been through these 2 teams before, so I wont go into too much detail again. Mainly because I really can't be bothered! I'll just assess the way I see things panning out in each area of the pitch without going into individual player detail.
We are seeing 2 very experienced defences in this match, and players who are used to playing with each other. Uruguay's impressive tournament has been built on the back of a solid backline although that all went a bit awry against Holland! Similarly Germany have been typically solid throughout as you'd expect, but they will have to cope with 2 strikers in form in Forlan and the returning Suarez for Uruguay. Both of these will be keen to add to their tally's and claim the Golden Boot, so I would imagine they'll be coming out all guns blazing.
These games are notoriously difficult to call as traditionally one team tries to win and the other doesn't. The hard part is working out which is which! Both have strong defences and exciting attackers. This should make for an interesting game as actually I think both teams will go for the victory. This being the case I think the impressive Germans will probably have too much for a worn-out Uruguayan back four.
Midfield
The midfields are very different. Uruguay are more quietly efficient, whereas some of the German players have really stepped up and announced themselves to the world so far. Bastian Schweinsteiger, Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil have all impressed, and would probably all be in the running for most people's team of the tournament so far. Schweinsteiger has revelled in Louis Van Gaal's new positon for him of defensive midfielder. He has the ability to tackle well and boundless energy to always be involved in play, as well as the ability on the ball you would expect of a man who started his career on the wing. Sami Khedira was only promoted from the U21 side this year, and probably wouldn't have played had Michael Ballack been fit. He has performed the role of keeping play ticking over and always providing an outlet for his teammates to pass too. I would not be suprised to see him get a big move before the summer is out. And Mesut Ozil is the next big playmaker! He is a traditional no10, playing off the striker(s) and constantly prompting and probing to exploit gaps and create chances. As I've mentioned Uruguay are more a functional unit more than a creative one and are really there to provide extra protection for the defence than provide any attacking thrust.
This looks a one-sided match up to me if Germany perform as we now know they are capable of. All the extra defensive responsibilities should be taking their toll on the Uruguayans by now. I can see them absolutely dominating midfield again and I would fancy Shweinsteiger and Ozil to be brilliant again.
Attack
This is where Uruguay have come to the fore so far. They have 2 attackers in great form and both still in with a shout for the Golden Boot. Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez have been on top of their respective games so far. Suarez sat out the Semi-Final after his heinous crime in the Quarters of handballing to save his team from certain defeat (an unselfish hero in my eyes!). Both of these 2 will pose the German defence problems and I would fancy one of them to grab a goal. Forlan has shown he is not afraid to shoot from distance, with 2 successes so far, and he is also on freekick duty. Suarez has shown that strikers knack of being in the right place at the right time and you begin to see how he got 49 (FORTY NINE) goals for Ajax last year. Another player who will surely get a big move soon. I would love to see Forlan grab a couple and the Golden Boot to see him get some long overdue recognition. He may have 'failed' at Man Utd, but he has banged them in in Spain and been top scorer in 2 of the last 3 years. Germany have the triumvate of Podolski, Klose and Mueller back together for this match with Mueller returning from suspension. Klose needs 2 goals to be the highest scorer ever in World Cup's and that should provide plenty of personal motivation tomorrow. Podolski seems a very keen individual and very confident in his own abilities. This will probably go some way to explain his performances and goals here after such a disappointing campaign in Germany with FC Koln. Mueller is listed in the 3 players for young player of the tournamnet, and rightly so. One of the unheard of German players coming into this, his direct running and 3 goals so far have made sure people know his name now! He is another who will want to cement his burgeoning reputation with another good performance.
I can see goals from both teams tomorrow night with such good, in-form players playing up front for both teams. I do fancy Germany to outscore the Uruguayan's as they have more firepower in my opinion and a far superior midfield backing them up.
Betting
This could be an interesting proposition depending on who you fancy to be trying. I think both will due to Uruguayan pride and German youthful endeavour. For this reason I think we might have a classic. I would be tempted to go for both teams to score at 4/6 with Bluesq.com. I also fancy Klose to take advantage of Uruguays defence and you can get 9/2 with various firms on first goalscorer or anytime at 6/5 again with Bluesq.com. Getting on over 2.5 goals at a widely available 8/13 looks a shrewd bet to me too.
Uruguay v Germany, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Saturday 10th July
Defence
I have been through these 2 teams before, so I wont go into too much detail again. Mainly because I really can't be bothered! I'll just assess the way I see things panning out in each area of the pitch without going into individual player detail.
We are seeing 2 very experienced defences in this match, and players who are used to playing with each other. Uruguay's impressive tournament has been built on the back of a solid backline although that all went a bit awry against Holland! Similarly Germany have been typically solid throughout as you'd expect, but they will have to cope with 2 strikers in form in Forlan and the returning Suarez for Uruguay. Both of these will be keen to add to their tally's and claim the Golden Boot, so I would imagine they'll be coming out all guns blazing.
These games are notoriously difficult to call as traditionally one team tries to win and the other doesn't. The hard part is working out which is which! Both have strong defences and exciting attackers. This should make for an interesting game as actually I think both teams will go for the victory. This being the case I think the impressive Germans will probably have too much for a worn-out Uruguayan back four.
Midfield
The midfields are very different. Uruguay are more quietly efficient, whereas some of the German players have really stepped up and announced themselves to the world so far. Bastian Schweinsteiger, Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil have all impressed, and would probably all be in the running for most people's team of the tournament so far. Schweinsteiger has revelled in Louis Van Gaal's new positon for him of defensive midfielder. He has the ability to tackle well and boundless energy to always be involved in play, as well as the ability on the ball you would expect of a man who started his career on the wing. Sami Khedira was only promoted from the U21 side this year, and probably wouldn't have played had Michael Ballack been fit. He has performed the role of keeping play ticking over and always providing an outlet for his teammates to pass too. I would not be suprised to see him get a big move before the summer is out. And Mesut Ozil is the next big playmaker! He is a traditional no10, playing off the striker(s) and constantly prompting and probing to exploit gaps and create chances. As I've mentioned Uruguay are more a functional unit more than a creative one and are really there to provide extra protection for the defence than provide any attacking thrust.
This looks a one-sided match up to me if Germany perform as we now know they are capable of. All the extra defensive responsibilities should be taking their toll on the Uruguayans by now. I can see them absolutely dominating midfield again and I would fancy Shweinsteiger and Ozil to be brilliant again.
Attack
This is where Uruguay have come to the fore so far. They have 2 attackers in great form and both still in with a shout for the Golden Boot. Diego Forlan and Luis Suarez have been on top of their respective games so far. Suarez sat out the Semi-Final after his heinous crime in the Quarters of handballing to save his team from certain defeat (an unselfish hero in my eyes!). Both of these 2 will pose the German defence problems and I would fancy one of them to grab a goal. Forlan has shown he is not afraid to shoot from distance, with 2 successes so far, and he is also on freekick duty. Suarez has shown that strikers knack of being in the right place at the right time and you begin to see how he got 49 (FORTY NINE) goals for Ajax last year. Another player who will surely get a big move soon. I would love to see Forlan grab a couple and the Golden Boot to see him get some long overdue recognition. He may have 'failed' at Man Utd, but he has banged them in in Spain and been top scorer in 2 of the last 3 years. Germany have the triumvate of Podolski, Klose and Mueller back together for this match with Mueller returning from suspension. Klose needs 2 goals to be the highest scorer ever in World Cup's and that should provide plenty of personal motivation tomorrow. Podolski seems a very keen individual and very confident in his own abilities. This will probably go some way to explain his performances and goals here after such a disappointing campaign in Germany with FC Koln. Mueller is listed in the 3 players for young player of the tournamnet, and rightly so. One of the unheard of German players coming into this, his direct running and 3 goals so far have made sure people know his name now! He is another who will want to cement his burgeoning reputation with another good performance.
I can see goals from both teams tomorrow night with such good, in-form players playing up front for both teams. I do fancy Germany to outscore the Uruguayan's as they have more firepower in my opinion and a far superior midfield backing them up.
Betting
This could be an interesting proposition depending on who you fancy to be trying. I think both will due to Uruguayan pride and German youthful endeavour. For this reason I think we might have a classic. I would be tempted to go for both teams to score at 4/6 with Bluesq.com. I also fancy Klose to take advantage of Uruguays defence and you can get 9/2 with various firms on first goalscorer or anytime at 6/5 again with Bluesq.com. Getting on over 2.5 goals at a widely available 8/13 looks a shrewd bet to me too.
Tuesday, 6 July 2010
Another day another Semi...
And on to the second of my World Cup Semi-Final previews and it's a repeat of the Euro 2008 final in this one. Germany have been the more impressive team so far and will be looking to gain revenge tomorrow night. So, without any further ado, here is my preview...
Germany v Spain, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Wednesday 7th July
Defence
We should see both teams lining up pretty similarly to their Quarter-Finals for this one. Sapin have had a settled back 4 now for around 2 years and barring injury it shouldn't change for this game. At left-back will be everyone's favourite injury-feigning, rolling around, card-waving, utter s**t, Joan Capdevilla! I always thought of him as a steady defender who provided useful attacking support. I suppose that still applies, but he has tarnished his reputation with his antics in the Portugal game for me. At centre back it will again be the Barcelona pair of Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol. These 2 have not looked that solid to me so far, Paraguay went at them for the first 20 minutes in the Quarter-Final and worried them. Germany are capable, as we've seen, of maintaining those levels for 90 minutes and I think this could prove crucial. At right-back it's Sergio Ramos. Along with David Villa I think he's the only Spanish player to emerge with his reputation enhanced. He has been up and down like a yo-yo every game and has rarely been caught out of position as well as teeing up scoring opportunities for the strikers. Personally I would be tempted to bring in Carlos Marchena for Pique at centre back to provide a more experienced head, but at this late stage it would be a major shock if that happened.
For Germany it will likely be the same back 4 as in their hugely successful performance against Argentina. This will have Philip Lahm at right-back. Along with Ramos I think this guy is the best in the world at right-back. He has a seemingly endless supply of energy and pops up in defence and attack and is rarely out of position. A brilliant player and one that would improve any team in the world. At centre back it will likely be Jerome Boateng and Per Mertesacker. Boateng has just signed for Man City and looked very good in his favoured position against the Argie's. He was part of the effort in silencing Argentina's attackers, including Messi, and was very impressive whilst doing it. Very quick and physical and should have no problems adapting to the Premier League. Mertesacker is more like the brains of the operation. He isn't anywhere near as quick, but is good positionally and helps the less experienced Boateng out in that respect. At left-back it will be probably be Arne Friedrich, who even popped up to score in the last match! An experienced pro, he will be steady at the back and look to support in attack when the opportunity arises.
This match will probably rest on the midfield performances, but the defences will play a part. David Villa has looked devastating so far and the German's will look to shackle him as they did Messi. If they do that they will cut off the only real goal threat Spain have had so far. The Spanish will have to improve markedly to cope with Germany's constant, relentless attacking. If they don't then the Germans will overrun them.
Midfield
This is where I think the match will be won or lost. For Spain there will be the triumvate of Xavi, Busquets and Alonso. I have already given my thoughts on Busquets, but I will repeat them. He is the weak link in this Spanish team, his lack of ability is so clear compared to everyone else on the team it's startling. His job is to win the ball and lay it off to Xavi or Alonso to do the damage. Too often though he tries to play the balls himself and gifts the opposition possession back. Xavi is the master of passing, he rarely gives the ball away and is always available to the other players. He keeps this Spanish team ticking. Alonso is also a master passer, but is more likely than Xavi to play a long aerial pass when he thinks it's required.
For Germany it is again a middle 3. Man of the match from the Argentina game Bastian Schweinsteiger is ostensibly the holding player. Due to his career initially beginning as a winger though he is more than capable of bringing the ball forward and helping out in attack. Argentina couldn't cope with this and the goal he layed on for Arne Friedrich is a perfect example of his game. Alongside him will be Sami Khedira. He is more a Xavi style player who keeps the ball moving and keeps possession for this German team. He is excellent at this and some of the morning's papers have linked him with Chelsea, I think he and Essien would make a brilliant partnership in midfield. Making up the 3 is the link man between defence and attack, Mesut Ozil. Whilst he is unlikely to be back helping out in defence too much he does come back to receive the ball from Khedira and Schweinsteiger to set attacks rolling. He was a bit quiet against Argentina as Schweinsteiger took centre stage, but demolished England and Australia to show the effect he can have.
Whilst many would imagine Spain will dominate midfield, and midfield possession, I think Germany can change this. Busquets is not, in my opinion, good enough to be in this team and Germany should walk all over him. I would bring in Bilbao's Javi Martinez, but this wont happen. Unless Busquets has the game of his life I think Spain are in for a rude awakening!
Attack
For Spain their attack so far has been all about one man, David Villa. He has almost single-handedly dragged Spain through and has backed up my assertion that he is the best striker in the world right now. Torres has looked little short of hopeless so far. I would personally put Fernando Llorente in from the start, but Torres is a popular member of the squad and a Del Bosque favourite so he will start. The trio is made up by Andres Iniesta. A brilliant player, though he has been a bit subdued so far here for some reason. They will all need to be firing on all cylinders as Germany have been the most impressive team on show at this World Cup so far barring the Serbia game. On the bench will be Mata, Navas and Llorente all hoping to make an impact if brought on. I have always been impressed with Navas when watching him in La Liga. However, when he has played in this tournament he has looked like Aaron Lennon, without the Blazin Squad haircut. All pace and no end product. Mata is more likely to come inside and shoot, but has not impressed me at all when he's featured. As I've mentioned I think Llorente should start, but expect to see him introduced from the bench if Spain are struggling.
Germany also have a front 3. Thomas Muller is suspended for this match though, and that will be a loss. Whilst he only has 1 season of club football under his belt he has been very good so far. He will be likely to be replaced by either Toni Kroos or Marko Marin, both impressive young players themselves. Kroos is a more direct replacement as more of a central player, Marin is a small, nippy right-winger. Germany will not be as potent whoever plays, but both are capable of coming in and impressing. Whoever is picked will line-up with Lukas Podolski and Miroslav Klose, the 2 Poles! Seriously though, both are proven players at this level and have seemingly put disappointing domestic seasons behind them to impress so far. Klose is closing in on the real Ronaldo's World Cup scoring record, and will be looking to add to his total against a so far unimpressive Spanish rearguard. Podolski always seems greedy to me, but he scores and Germany win so he can't be that bad!
I think Germany's form in attack against Spain's form in defence could spell disaster for Spain. Unless Spain up their game Germany could destroy them I think. Germany will be looking to contain David Villa, and if they do that I can't see how Spain will score.
Betting
Because of Spain's incredible record of the past 4 years and being reigning Euro champions I think there is some cracking prices around. I would be tempted to back Germany with a -1 handicap at 11/2 with Sportingbet, if Germany get ahead I can see them running riot as they have previously. I would take Germany to do it in 90 minutes at a widely available 7/4 too. Spain have some hot-heads in their squad in Puyol, Pique and Busquets so if, like me, you fancy a Germany win then 1 of them to get sent off might hold appeal at 3/1 with Paddypower on any sending off in the match.
Germany v Spain, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Wednesday 7th July
Defence
We should see both teams lining up pretty similarly to their Quarter-Finals for this one. Sapin have had a settled back 4 now for around 2 years and barring injury it shouldn't change for this game. At left-back will be everyone's favourite injury-feigning, rolling around, card-waving, utter s**t, Joan Capdevilla! I always thought of him as a steady defender who provided useful attacking support. I suppose that still applies, but he has tarnished his reputation with his antics in the Portugal game for me. At centre back it will again be the Barcelona pair of Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol. These 2 have not looked that solid to me so far, Paraguay went at them for the first 20 minutes in the Quarter-Final and worried them. Germany are capable, as we've seen, of maintaining those levels for 90 minutes and I think this could prove crucial. At right-back it's Sergio Ramos. Along with David Villa I think he's the only Spanish player to emerge with his reputation enhanced. He has been up and down like a yo-yo every game and has rarely been caught out of position as well as teeing up scoring opportunities for the strikers. Personally I would be tempted to bring in Carlos Marchena for Pique at centre back to provide a more experienced head, but at this late stage it would be a major shock if that happened.
For Germany it will likely be the same back 4 as in their hugely successful performance against Argentina. This will have Philip Lahm at right-back. Along with Ramos I think this guy is the best in the world at right-back. He has a seemingly endless supply of energy and pops up in defence and attack and is rarely out of position. A brilliant player and one that would improve any team in the world. At centre back it will likely be Jerome Boateng and Per Mertesacker. Boateng has just signed for Man City and looked very good in his favoured position against the Argie's. He was part of the effort in silencing Argentina's attackers, including Messi, and was very impressive whilst doing it. Very quick and physical and should have no problems adapting to the Premier League. Mertesacker is more like the brains of the operation. He isn't anywhere near as quick, but is good positionally and helps the less experienced Boateng out in that respect. At left-back it will be probably be Arne Friedrich, who even popped up to score in the last match! An experienced pro, he will be steady at the back and look to support in attack when the opportunity arises.
This match will probably rest on the midfield performances, but the defences will play a part. David Villa has looked devastating so far and the German's will look to shackle him as they did Messi. If they do that they will cut off the only real goal threat Spain have had so far. The Spanish will have to improve markedly to cope with Germany's constant, relentless attacking. If they don't then the Germans will overrun them.
Midfield
This is where I think the match will be won or lost. For Spain there will be the triumvate of Xavi, Busquets and Alonso. I have already given my thoughts on Busquets, but I will repeat them. He is the weak link in this Spanish team, his lack of ability is so clear compared to everyone else on the team it's startling. His job is to win the ball and lay it off to Xavi or Alonso to do the damage. Too often though he tries to play the balls himself and gifts the opposition possession back. Xavi is the master of passing, he rarely gives the ball away and is always available to the other players. He keeps this Spanish team ticking. Alonso is also a master passer, but is more likely than Xavi to play a long aerial pass when he thinks it's required.
For Germany it is again a middle 3. Man of the match from the Argentina game Bastian Schweinsteiger is ostensibly the holding player. Due to his career initially beginning as a winger though he is more than capable of bringing the ball forward and helping out in attack. Argentina couldn't cope with this and the goal he layed on for Arne Friedrich is a perfect example of his game. Alongside him will be Sami Khedira. He is more a Xavi style player who keeps the ball moving and keeps possession for this German team. He is excellent at this and some of the morning's papers have linked him with Chelsea, I think he and Essien would make a brilliant partnership in midfield. Making up the 3 is the link man between defence and attack, Mesut Ozil. Whilst he is unlikely to be back helping out in defence too much he does come back to receive the ball from Khedira and Schweinsteiger to set attacks rolling. He was a bit quiet against Argentina as Schweinsteiger took centre stage, but demolished England and Australia to show the effect he can have.
Whilst many would imagine Spain will dominate midfield, and midfield possession, I think Germany can change this. Busquets is not, in my opinion, good enough to be in this team and Germany should walk all over him. I would bring in Bilbao's Javi Martinez, but this wont happen. Unless Busquets has the game of his life I think Spain are in for a rude awakening!
Attack
For Spain their attack so far has been all about one man, David Villa. He has almost single-handedly dragged Spain through and has backed up my assertion that he is the best striker in the world right now. Torres has looked little short of hopeless so far. I would personally put Fernando Llorente in from the start, but Torres is a popular member of the squad and a Del Bosque favourite so he will start. The trio is made up by Andres Iniesta. A brilliant player, though he has been a bit subdued so far here for some reason. They will all need to be firing on all cylinders as Germany have been the most impressive team on show at this World Cup so far barring the Serbia game. On the bench will be Mata, Navas and Llorente all hoping to make an impact if brought on. I have always been impressed with Navas when watching him in La Liga. However, when he has played in this tournament he has looked like Aaron Lennon, without the Blazin Squad haircut. All pace and no end product. Mata is more likely to come inside and shoot, but has not impressed me at all when he's featured. As I've mentioned I think Llorente should start, but expect to see him introduced from the bench if Spain are struggling.
Germany also have a front 3. Thomas Muller is suspended for this match though, and that will be a loss. Whilst he only has 1 season of club football under his belt he has been very good so far. He will be likely to be replaced by either Toni Kroos or Marko Marin, both impressive young players themselves. Kroos is a more direct replacement as more of a central player, Marin is a small, nippy right-winger. Germany will not be as potent whoever plays, but both are capable of coming in and impressing. Whoever is picked will line-up with Lukas Podolski and Miroslav Klose, the 2 Poles! Seriously though, both are proven players at this level and have seemingly put disappointing domestic seasons behind them to impress so far. Klose is closing in on the real Ronaldo's World Cup scoring record, and will be looking to add to his total against a so far unimpressive Spanish rearguard. Podolski always seems greedy to me, but he scores and Germany win so he can't be that bad!
I think Germany's form in attack against Spain's form in defence could spell disaster for Spain. Unless Spain up their game Germany could destroy them I think. Germany will be looking to contain David Villa, and if they do that I can't see how Spain will score.
Betting
Because of Spain's incredible record of the past 4 years and being reigning Euro champions I think there is some cracking prices around. I would be tempted to back Germany with a -1 handicap at 11/2 with Sportingbet, if Germany get ahead I can see them running riot as they have previously. I would take Germany to do it in 90 minutes at a widely available 7/4 too. Spain have some hot-heads in their squad in Puyol, Pique and Busquets so if, like me, you fancy a Germany win then 1 of them to get sent off might hold appeal at 3/1 with Paddypower on any sending off in the match.
Monday, 5 July 2010
I've got a little Semi on...
And so here we are. We've narrowed down the original 32 entrants to just 4, with Germany, Holland, Uruguay and Spain the last teams standing. I will have a look at the teams again, same format as before, and attempt to analyse where the game may well be won or lost. First up it's:
Holland v Uruguay, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Tuesday 6th July
Defence
Holland, whilst not necessarily containing any names you might recognise, are extremely strong in defence. This is borne out in the stat that they have only conceded 3 goals in their 5 games so far. This is a great credit to Bert Van Marwiijk, their coach, as he has been picking the same defence when fit almost since taking over and they are now a compact, well-drilled unit. However, the right-back Gregory Van Wiel, one of the young players who has most impressed, is suspended for this match. He is likely to be replaced by John Heitinga shuffling across from centre back I would have thought. Heitinga played most of his time for Atletico Madrid in Spain at right-back and was known to struggle when up against dynamic wingers. At centre back I would have thought that we would see Andre Ooijer and the return of Joris Mathijsen. Mathijsen played the majority of the qualifying vampaign and there should be no problems in him slotting in next to experienced campaigner Ooijer. At left-back will again be the captain Gio Van Bronckhorst. This back 4 is very experienced, but without the dynamism of Van Wiel they are lacking in pace and attacking intent.
For Uruguay it should be the same back 4 we saw line-up against Ghana in the Quarter-Final. We should see the hugely impressive Jorge Fucile at left-back, and he should again provide sound defensive cover along with attacking support. At right-back should be Maxi Pereira, who has been a reliable defender so far, and will need to be up against Arjen Robben. At centre back we should again see the pairing of the 2 Diego's, Lugano and Godin. These 2 are both used to playing with each other and make a solid and reliable starting point. Holland have 3 attackers who are capable of winning a game on their own and the Uruguyan defence will need to be alert at all times to deal with the threat they pose.
I can see Van Bommel beiong given a detail to follow Diego Forlan and cut off the supply to Uruguay's forwards. The suspension of Luis Suarez also robs Uruguay of their most potent goal threat so far. I see this as hugely weighting the battle in Holland's defences favour. Uruguay's defence could well be in for a torrid time. Robben has looked better and better every game, Sneijder is orchestrating play, and Van Persie has looked threatening too. They will need to have the game of their lives to cope and I think the dream might end here.
Midfield
Holland have the 2 defensive midfield pivot that many teams favour now. They have Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong normally, but De Jong is suspended here. This could be a big miss as he has been a huge presence for them defensively so far. Demy De Zeuww of Ajax will probably fill in. He is 27 now and has been aound the Dutch League before getting his big move and fitting straight in. He wont be as dominating as De Jong, but with Suarez out he might not need to be. Sneijder again will be the link man, and he has carried this season'e exceptional form into the tournament so far. With Van Persie not quite firing on all cylinders, Sneijder is THE MAN in this team. If he plays well then I think it's bye, bye Uruguay!
For Uruguay it will be the 2 man pivot too. They play Eguren and Rios and they are both very disciplined. I would have thought they will be told that they are to stay back at all times to help out the defence with the threat Holland pose. Alvaro Pereira or Diego Perez will occupy the link man role and will probably be told to think of defence before bombing on and supporting the strikers. They could even bring in Nicolas Lodeiro's creativity in a flat 4 man midfield as Luis Suarez is suspended and it would provide more defensive support.
Again I see Holland dominating this match up. Sneijder has his eye on the player of the tournament gong and I would expect him to run this game and enhance his credentials even more.
Attack
Holland play Dirk Kuyt furthest up as a target man with Van Persie and Robben playing off him. This system works well as Dirk Kuyt is nothing if not hard-working. I personally think he-s dreadful at Liverpool, but a lot of that can be put down to his being played on the wing when he is patently not a winger in any shape or form! Robben was carrying an injury coming into the tournament. Van Maarwijk can again take great credit as his gamble on the glass man's recovery has paid off spectacularly so far. His insistence on throwing himself at the floor and rolling around certainly grates with me, but he is some player when in full-flight and puts defenders on the backfoot immediately. Van Persie hasn't been great so far, but he is still performing OK and is capable of unleashing rockets from his left-boot when the mood takes him.
Uruguay are usually heavily reliant on Diego Forlan and this is even more true as Luis Suarez is suspended for his heinous crime in the last match. I have seen people calling for huge bans and rule changes because of his handball, but I think he was adequately punished. The attacking team get a free shot from 12 yards, which any striker should score, and Uruguay lose a man too. I think anyone would have to agree they would do the same, so to brand him some sort of devil-man is a bit rich I think. As a wise friend of mine pointed out he will probably now be a national hero if they go on to triumph and will be able to ask any man for a lend of his wife for the night with no fear of repercussions! All the joking aside, he has been Uruguay's main goal threat and they will miss him sorely. The responsibility will fall on Forlan to somehow create and score and I think this will see them lose in this game.
In conclusion, I would say the loss of Suarez for Uruguay and Holland's stellar attack add up to misery for South America's last representatives. I can't see them scoring more than once and I think Holland will get 2 at least with the attacking force they have.
Betting
I would be inclined to back Holland for a clean sheet at 10/11 with Skybet. The 4/6 on offer for Holland to do it in 90 minutes looks massive to me with Skybet again. Holland beat Brazil and Uruguay edged past Ghana, how they can go with that price is beyond me and it should be snapped up! For a bit more value Betfred go 13/8 on the -1 handicap on Holland and I can see them covering that.
Holland v Uruguay, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Tuesday 6th July
Defence
Holland, whilst not necessarily containing any names you might recognise, are extremely strong in defence. This is borne out in the stat that they have only conceded 3 goals in their 5 games so far. This is a great credit to Bert Van Marwiijk, their coach, as he has been picking the same defence when fit almost since taking over and they are now a compact, well-drilled unit. However, the right-back Gregory Van Wiel, one of the young players who has most impressed, is suspended for this match. He is likely to be replaced by John Heitinga shuffling across from centre back I would have thought. Heitinga played most of his time for Atletico Madrid in Spain at right-back and was known to struggle when up against dynamic wingers. At centre back I would have thought that we would see Andre Ooijer and the return of Joris Mathijsen. Mathijsen played the majority of the qualifying vampaign and there should be no problems in him slotting in next to experienced campaigner Ooijer. At left-back will again be the captain Gio Van Bronckhorst. This back 4 is very experienced, but without the dynamism of Van Wiel they are lacking in pace and attacking intent.
For Uruguay it should be the same back 4 we saw line-up against Ghana in the Quarter-Final. We should see the hugely impressive Jorge Fucile at left-back, and he should again provide sound defensive cover along with attacking support. At right-back should be Maxi Pereira, who has been a reliable defender so far, and will need to be up against Arjen Robben. At centre back we should again see the pairing of the 2 Diego's, Lugano and Godin. These 2 are both used to playing with each other and make a solid and reliable starting point. Holland have 3 attackers who are capable of winning a game on their own and the Uruguyan defence will need to be alert at all times to deal with the threat they pose.
I can see Van Bommel beiong given a detail to follow Diego Forlan and cut off the supply to Uruguay's forwards. The suspension of Luis Suarez also robs Uruguay of their most potent goal threat so far. I see this as hugely weighting the battle in Holland's defences favour. Uruguay's defence could well be in for a torrid time. Robben has looked better and better every game, Sneijder is orchestrating play, and Van Persie has looked threatening too. They will need to have the game of their lives to cope and I think the dream might end here.
Midfield
Holland have the 2 defensive midfield pivot that many teams favour now. They have Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong normally, but De Jong is suspended here. This could be a big miss as he has been a huge presence for them defensively so far. Demy De Zeuww of Ajax will probably fill in. He is 27 now and has been aound the Dutch League before getting his big move and fitting straight in. He wont be as dominating as De Jong, but with Suarez out he might not need to be. Sneijder again will be the link man, and he has carried this season'e exceptional form into the tournament so far. With Van Persie not quite firing on all cylinders, Sneijder is THE MAN in this team. If he plays well then I think it's bye, bye Uruguay!
For Uruguay it will be the 2 man pivot too. They play Eguren and Rios and they are both very disciplined. I would have thought they will be told that they are to stay back at all times to help out the defence with the threat Holland pose. Alvaro Pereira or Diego Perez will occupy the link man role and will probably be told to think of defence before bombing on and supporting the strikers. They could even bring in Nicolas Lodeiro's creativity in a flat 4 man midfield as Luis Suarez is suspended and it would provide more defensive support.
Again I see Holland dominating this match up. Sneijder has his eye on the player of the tournament gong and I would expect him to run this game and enhance his credentials even more.
Attack
Holland play Dirk Kuyt furthest up as a target man with Van Persie and Robben playing off him. This system works well as Dirk Kuyt is nothing if not hard-working. I personally think he-s dreadful at Liverpool, but a lot of that can be put down to his being played on the wing when he is patently not a winger in any shape or form! Robben was carrying an injury coming into the tournament. Van Maarwijk can again take great credit as his gamble on the glass man's recovery has paid off spectacularly so far. His insistence on throwing himself at the floor and rolling around certainly grates with me, but he is some player when in full-flight and puts defenders on the backfoot immediately. Van Persie hasn't been great so far, but he is still performing OK and is capable of unleashing rockets from his left-boot when the mood takes him.
Uruguay are usually heavily reliant on Diego Forlan and this is even more true as Luis Suarez is suspended for his heinous crime in the last match. I have seen people calling for huge bans and rule changes because of his handball, but I think he was adequately punished. The attacking team get a free shot from 12 yards, which any striker should score, and Uruguay lose a man too. I think anyone would have to agree they would do the same, so to brand him some sort of devil-man is a bit rich I think. As a wise friend of mine pointed out he will probably now be a national hero if they go on to triumph and will be able to ask any man for a lend of his wife for the night with no fear of repercussions! All the joking aside, he has been Uruguay's main goal threat and they will miss him sorely. The responsibility will fall on Forlan to somehow create and score and I think this will see them lose in this game.
In conclusion, I would say the loss of Suarez for Uruguay and Holland's stellar attack add up to misery for South America's last representatives. I can't see them scoring more than once and I think Holland will get 2 at least with the attacking force they have.
Betting
I would be inclined to back Holland for a clean sheet at 10/11 with Skybet. The 4/6 on offer for Holland to do it in 90 minutes looks massive to me with Skybet again. Holland beat Brazil and Uruguay edged past Ghana, how they can go with that price is beyond me and it should be snapped up! For a bit more value Betfred go 13/8 on the -1 handicap on Holland and I can see them covering that.
Friday, 2 July 2010
4th one's a charm...
Here is my thoughts on the last of the 4 Quarter-Finals this weekend. I have covered both of these teams in a previous blog so I will try and add a bit of info on some of the squad players that might well feature too.
Spain v Paraguay, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Saturday 2nd June
Defence
Paraguay are a compact and experienced team in defence who are more bothered about not conceding than they are about marauding upfield and helping the attack. This is no bad thing as 1 goal concede so far will testify. They always looked resolute against Japan and never looked very likely to be carved open. At centre half it should be Da Silva of Sunderland and Claudio Morel. Both are experienced defenders, although we may see Caceres restored to the line-up after missing out through injury in the Japan game. The youngest member of Paraguay's defenders at the World Cup is Antonin Alcaraz at 27, so experience shouldn't be a problem. Saying that though, pace might!
For Spain it will be the usual suspects unless injury strikes. We will see Barcelona's pairing of Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol at centre half. Pique has looked a bit of a liability at times so far and will need to be better if Spain are to go on and the lift the cup. Puyol is the leader of the team and a symbol of Catalonia and Spain, he might be getting on, but he provides leadership for this team. My man of the match in the Portugal game would have been Sergio Ramos of Real Madrid at right-back. With Portugal lacking somewhat in attack Ramos supported he attack at every opprtunity and was brilliant. At left back we have the new Rivaldo, Joan Capdevilla, my villain of the tournament. There is little I hate more in the game than cheating, diving and trying to get opposition players booked/sent off. This despicable man did all 3 in one against Portugal, and whilst those cheating swine earnt it, I was not impressed one bit. The only change I could envisage would be Alvaro Arbreloa possibly coming in at left-back for his reliability.
The Paraguayan defence will have to have the game of their lives to contain this Spanish attack, and in particular the in-form David Villa. I can't see them doing it myself.
Midfield
Like a lot of modern teams Paraguay play a 4-3-3. This has Nestor Ortigoza or Edgar Barreto anchoring, both of whom are very reliable defensive players unlikely to be found near the oppositions penalty area. The impressive Cristian Riveros, who will be playing for Sunderland next year, will be with the experienced Enrique Vera in the centre. Riveros has impressed me with his astute passing and tactical awareness and looks likely to be a Premier League success.
Spain have the masters of tiki-taka football in the middle, Xavi and Iniesta. These 2 are almost one player really with an almost 6th sense understanding of where the other will be. Xabi Alonso of Real Madrid and Sergio Busquets of Barcelona play slightly behind. Busquets is a poor-man's Mascherano in my opinion, and anyone who read my last post will understand that's far from a compliment! He is Spain's weak link for me witha horrible touch and tendency to give away freekicks. Alonso is a great passer over any distance, long and short, and is a deep-lying playmaker for Spain in the Andrea Pirlo mold. It's a system designed to get the ball and then never lose it, and this is often the case!
I can see Paraguay having a horrible time trying to get moves going in midfield. Spain are quick to press and if Paraguay lose the ball it could be 10 minutes before they see it again.
Attack
Spain have Iniesta helping out in attack, but the main 2 protagonists are David Villa and Fernando Torres. Villa has proven himself to be the top striker in world football again at this tournament. He might not have been at Europe's biggest clubs so far, but he has always got goals and that's most important. Torres on the other hand has been woeful so far! Looking well short of fitness and form, Spain improved markedly when Fernando Llorente of Bilbao came on against Portugal. I doubt whether Spain will drop Torres though, but I do expect to see Llorente again if Torres is misfiring.
Paraguay will have a 3 pronged attack of Roque Santa Cruz, Hector Valdez and Lucas Barrios. Oscar Cardozo may start and will definitely feature at some point. Cardozo has the best scoring record of them, but the other 3 are favourites of the manager Gerardo Martino. I don't see it myself though. I think they will need the physical presence of Cardozo to cause Spain problems. Whilst the others are good players, I don't think they have enough to trouble Spain.
I see Spain's attack giving the Paraguayan defence a torrid time. Villa is in great form at the moment and I think it's a matter of time before Spain really open someone up. Sadly I think Paraguay might be that team.
Betting
I would handicap Spain in this one and expect them to cover a 1 goal handicap at 6/4 with various firms. I would have them to keep a clean sheet too at Evens at Boylesports with the stipulation Spain win too. I would again back David Villa for first goal too at 11/4 with William Hill.
Spain v Paraguay, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Saturday 2nd June
Defence
Paraguay are a compact and experienced team in defence who are more bothered about not conceding than they are about marauding upfield and helping the attack. This is no bad thing as 1 goal concede so far will testify. They always looked resolute against Japan and never looked very likely to be carved open. At centre half it should be Da Silva of Sunderland and Claudio Morel. Both are experienced defenders, although we may see Caceres restored to the line-up after missing out through injury in the Japan game. The youngest member of Paraguay's defenders at the World Cup is Antonin Alcaraz at 27, so experience shouldn't be a problem. Saying that though, pace might!
For Spain it will be the usual suspects unless injury strikes. We will see Barcelona's pairing of Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol at centre half. Pique has looked a bit of a liability at times so far and will need to be better if Spain are to go on and the lift the cup. Puyol is the leader of the team and a symbol of Catalonia and Spain, he might be getting on, but he provides leadership for this team. My man of the match in the Portugal game would have been Sergio Ramos of Real Madrid at right-back. With Portugal lacking somewhat in attack Ramos supported he attack at every opprtunity and was brilliant. At left back we have the new Rivaldo, Joan Capdevilla, my villain of the tournament. There is little I hate more in the game than cheating, diving and trying to get opposition players booked/sent off. This despicable man did all 3 in one against Portugal, and whilst those cheating swine earnt it, I was not impressed one bit. The only change I could envisage would be Alvaro Arbreloa possibly coming in at left-back for his reliability.
The Paraguayan defence will have to have the game of their lives to contain this Spanish attack, and in particular the in-form David Villa. I can't see them doing it myself.
Midfield
Like a lot of modern teams Paraguay play a 4-3-3. This has Nestor Ortigoza or Edgar Barreto anchoring, both of whom are very reliable defensive players unlikely to be found near the oppositions penalty area. The impressive Cristian Riveros, who will be playing for Sunderland next year, will be with the experienced Enrique Vera in the centre. Riveros has impressed me with his astute passing and tactical awareness and looks likely to be a Premier League success.
Spain have the masters of tiki-taka football in the middle, Xavi and Iniesta. These 2 are almost one player really with an almost 6th sense understanding of where the other will be. Xabi Alonso of Real Madrid and Sergio Busquets of Barcelona play slightly behind. Busquets is a poor-man's Mascherano in my opinion, and anyone who read my last post will understand that's far from a compliment! He is Spain's weak link for me witha horrible touch and tendency to give away freekicks. Alonso is a great passer over any distance, long and short, and is a deep-lying playmaker for Spain in the Andrea Pirlo mold. It's a system designed to get the ball and then never lose it, and this is often the case!
I can see Paraguay having a horrible time trying to get moves going in midfield. Spain are quick to press and if Paraguay lose the ball it could be 10 minutes before they see it again.
Attack
Spain have Iniesta helping out in attack, but the main 2 protagonists are David Villa and Fernando Torres. Villa has proven himself to be the top striker in world football again at this tournament. He might not have been at Europe's biggest clubs so far, but he has always got goals and that's most important. Torres on the other hand has been woeful so far! Looking well short of fitness and form, Spain improved markedly when Fernando Llorente of Bilbao came on against Portugal. I doubt whether Spain will drop Torres though, but I do expect to see Llorente again if Torres is misfiring.
Paraguay will have a 3 pronged attack of Roque Santa Cruz, Hector Valdez and Lucas Barrios. Oscar Cardozo may start and will definitely feature at some point. Cardozo has the best scoring record of them, but the other 3 are favourites of the manager Gerardo Martino. I don't see it myself though. I think they will need the physical presence of Cardozo to cause Spain problems. Whilst the others are good players, I don't think they have enough to trouble Spain.
I see Spain's attack giving the Paraguayan defence a torrid time. Villa is in great form at the moment and I think it's a matter of time before Spain really open someone up. Sadly I think Paraguay might be that team.
Betting
I would handicap Spain in this one and expect them to cover a 1 goal handicap at 6/4 with various firms. I would have them to keep a clean sheet too at Evens at Boylesports with the stipulation Spain win too. I would again back David Villa for first goal too at 11/4 with William Hill.
3 out of 4 ain't bad...
The 3rd of the 4 Quarter-Finals sees Argentina take on Germany. I really see this as being THE match of the tournament for excitement, Maradona's there for Christ's sake! These are 2 of histories most successful teams and 2 of the more impressive attacking forces so far so I really hope we're in for a treat tomorrow night!
Argentina v Germany, Kick-Off 3pm UK Time, Saturday 2nd July
Defence
Both of these teams have been criticised for their perceived weaknesses at the back, but so far they have carried them this far. Personally, I do agree with some of the points made about their weaknesses which I will go into here.
Argentina's back-line hasn't really been put to the test yet, and I think they'll consider themselves very lucky for that! Maradona, as expected, has made some very interesting choices in his back 4. Gabi Heinze, now of PSG, plays at left-back. Now, Gabi was a very good player in his time before, during and immediately after Man United, but now he's utter tosh! He's slow, petulant and just not good enough to cope if someone really gets at him, as I'd expect the Germans to do. At right-back it's either Jonas Gutierrez of Newcastle or Nicolas Otamendi of Velez Sarsfield. Gutierrez is a fairly mediocre winger by trade and is hopeless defensively, as you'd imagine, and Otamendi is a promising centre back who lacks the pace to play a full-back role. I would expect Germany to target the flanks and get some joy there. At centre half it's always Martin Demechelis of Bayern Munich alongside either Martin Samuel or Nicolas Burdisso, both of Inter Milan. Demechelis is the weakest of the 3, but under Maradona is a sure starter. None of them are quick, but Samuel is a very powerful player and reads the game well. If Germany, and Ozil in particular, are on form Argentina may find themselves in trouble!
Germany are lacking in pace at centre half too. Per Mertesacker of Werder Bremen and Arne Friedrich of Hertha Berlin are both vastly experienced though with over 65 caps each. They are a solid unit, but they will no doubt be troubled by the pace of Argentina's front 3. At full-back I would expect to see Philip Lahm, the captain, and Dennis Aogo or Jerome Boateng. Lahm is a brilliant modern full-back, full of running, defensively astute and capable of supporting the attack too. Aogo and Boateng are not! Both are, in my opinion, defensively suspect and prone to lapses of concentration. Expect to see Messi target whichever one gets the nod. I don't think the game will necessarily be decided here, although I really think Germany are going to get a lot of chances gifted by Argentina's poor defence.
Midfield
Argentina play a fairly normal 4-4-2, but with the wingers and forwards given licence to roam and swap positions at will. In the middle they normally start with Javier Mascherano of Liverpool and Juan Veron, now of Estudiantes. Personally I hate Macherano, let me make that clear! He is a horrible, petulant little player who constantly fouls and seems to have a very limited knowledge of how to actually play football. With that off my chest, he does have a role here as Veron's legs! Seba is in the twilight of his career now, and is in the team for his eye for a pass and nothing more. Angel Di Maria of Benfica and Maxi Rodriguez of Liverpool are the wingers. Di Maria is one of the rising stars of European football and is expected to move to Real Madrid after the tournament. I was very impressed with him at his club last year, but I don't think he's been great at this World Cup so far. Maxi isn't the same player who was so solid for Atletico Madrid and is another who I think has failed to live up to his billing so far.
Germany have, for me, had the most impressive midfield in the tournamnet so far. Bastian Schweinsteiger of Bayern Munich has been a revelation since Van Gaal spotted his potential and put him in a defensive midfield position last season. He is a terrier, like Mascherano, but as a bonus actually knows how to play football! He is accompanied by Sami Khedira of Stuttgart. Not a name I was massively familiar with pre0tournament, but now one of my favourite players so far. He is a very unfussy player, defensively astute, capable of great passing and calm. A revelation in the absence of Michael Ballack. Mesut Ozil completes the trio and is surely one of the players of the tournament so far. He is a classic playmaker given licence to roam by Jogi Low and prompts and probes all match. He will be one of the best in the world in a few years, mark my words! I see Germany winning this match up. Veron isn't anywhere near quick enough and I see him being a passenger as this game passes him by. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see Mascherano sent off either if they fall behind.
Attack
This is where Argentina undoubtebly have the edge. And that edge is Lionel 'The Flea' Messi! The best player I have ever seen, and he has proved it in this World Cup with everything but a goal so far. He has ran this Argentina team in much the way Maradona uesd to or Zidane did for France. Everytime a player has the ball they look to give it to Messi and for him to make things happen. Those that criticised hisunselfish display against Mexico will do well to notice he was often triple-marked, freeing up space for the other attackers. He will join Pele, Maradona and Di Stefano as one of the best ever I think. Alongside him is Carlos Tevez of Man City. I think he's every bit as good as Wayne Rooney myself, what he lacks in technique he makes up for in effort and he scores goals too when played up front. These 2 will give Germany a test like they haven't had yet.
Germany's attack will be the 3 pronged trident of Podolski, Klose and Mueller. All 3 contracted to Bayern Munich and all been impressive so far. Mueller has only completed his first full season last year, but looks like he's been there forever, a very mature player. Klose is lethal at international level, and particularly good in the air. He's not played loads of club football, but looks to have saved his best for the World Cup. Lukas Podolski reminds me of Milan Baros. He is an incredibly greedy player, he will always opt to shoot given half a chance, but he does have a good goalscoring record at this level. He caused England's Glen Johnson to have a terrible game last time out and will look to torment Argentina's full backs in the same way.
I think we will see goals here as both have good attacks and weaknesses to exploit in defence. Saying that, I think Germany have more threats and if Argentina go behind it will be interesting if they revert to type and implode spectactularly! I can't imagine Maradona being a calming influence!
Betting
I fancy goals goals, goals here and might go as far as over 4.5 available at 15/2 at Stan James for some longer odds. I would look at the sendings off market and take Blue Sq's 11/4 on Yes. I would back Germany in 90 minutes at a frankly massive 12/5 at Ladbrokes too. Germany to qualify at 13/10 with bet365 might appeal to those with less cojones!
Argentina v Germany, Kick-Off 3pm UK Time, Saturday 2nd July
Defence
Both of these teams have been criticised for their perceived weaknesses at the back, but so far they have carried them this far. Personally, I do agree with some of the points made about their weaknesses which I will go into here.
Argentina's back-line hasn't really been put to the test yet, and I think they'll consider themselves very lucky for that! Maradona, as expected, has made some very interesting choices in his back 4. Gabi Heinze, now of PSG, plays at left-back. Now, Gabi was a very good player in his time before, during and immediately after Man United, but now he's utter tosh! He's slow, petulant and just not good enough to cope if someone really gets at him, as I'd expect the Germans to do. At right-back it's either Jonas Gutierrez of Newcastle or Nicolas Otamendi of Velez Sarsfield. Gutierrez is a fairly mediocre winger by trade and is hopeless defensively, as you'd imagine, and Otamendi is a promising centre back who lacks the pace to play a full-back role. I would expect Germany to target the flanks and get some joy there. At centre half it's always Martin Demechelis of Bayern Munich alongside either Martin Samuel or Nicolas Burdisso, both of Inter Milan. Demechelis is the weakest of the 3, but under Maradona is a sure starter. None of them are quick, but Samuel is a very powerful player and reads the game well. If Germany, and Ozil in particular, are on form Argentina may find themselves in trouble!
Germany are lacking in pace at centre half too. Per Mertesacker of Werder Bremen and Arne Friedrich of Hertha Berlin are both vastly experienced though with over 65 caps each. They are a solid unit, but they will no doubt be troubled by the pace of Argentina's front 3. At full-back I would expect to see Philip Lahm, the captain, and Dennis Aogo or Jerome Boateng. Lahm is a brilliant modern full-back, full of running, defensively astute and capable of supporting the attack too. Aogo and Boateng are not! Both are, in my opinion, defensively suspect and prone to lapses of concentration. Expect to see Messi target whichever one gets the nod. I don't think the game will necessarily be decided here, although I really think Germany are going to get a lot of chances gifted by Argentina's poor defence.
Midfield
Argentina play a fairly normal 4-4-2, but with the wingers and forwards given licence to roam and swap positions at will. In the middle they normally start with Javier Mascherano of Liverpool and Juan Veron, now of Estudiantes. Personally I hate Macherano, let me make that clear! He is a horrible, petulant little player who constantly fouls and seems to have a very limited knowledge of how to actually play football. With that off my chest, he does have a role here as Veron's legs! Seba is in the twilight of his career now, and is in the team for his eye for a pass and nothing more. Angel Di Maria of Benfica and Maxi Rodriguez of Liverpool are the wingers. Di Maria is one of the rising stars of European football and is expected to move to Real Madrid after the tournament. I was very impressed with him at his club last year, but I don't think he's been great at this World Cup so far. Maxi isn't the same player who was so solid for Atletico Madrid and is another who I think has failed to live up to his billing so far.
Germany have, for me, had the most impressive midfield in the tournamnet so far. Bastian Schweinsteiger of Bayern Munich has been a revelation since Van Gaal spotted his potential and put him in a defensive midfield position last season. He is a terrier, like Mascherano, but as a bonus actually knows how to play football! He is accompanied by Sami Khedira of Stuttgart. Not a name I was massively familiar with pre0tournament, but now one of my favourite players so far. He is a very unfussy player, defensively astute, capable of great passing and calm. A revelation in the absence of Michael Ballack. Mesut Ozil completes the trio and is surely one of the players of the tournament so far. He is a classic playmaker given licence to roam by Jogi Low and prompts and probes all match. He will be one of the best in the world in a few years, mark my words! I see Germany winning this match up. Veron isn't anywhere near quick enough and I see him being a passenger as this game passes him by. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see Mascherano sent off either if they fall behind.
Attack
This is where Argentina undoubtebly have the edge. And that edge is Lionel 'The Flea' Messi! The best player I have ever seen, and he has proved it in this World Cup with everything but a goal so far. He has ran this Argentina team in much the way Maradona uesd to or Zidane did for France. Everytime a player has the ball they look to give it to Messi and for him to make things happen. Those that criticised hisunselfish display against Mexico will do well to notice he was often triple-marked, freeing up space for the other attackers. He will join Pele, Maradona and Di Stefano as one of the best ever I think. Alongside him is Carlos Tevez of Man City. I think he's every bit as good as Wayne Rooney myself, what he lacks in technique he makes up for in effort and he scores goals too when played up front. These 2 will give Germany a test like they haven't had yet.
Germany's attack will be the 3 pronged trident of Podolski, Klose and Mueller. All 3 contracted to Bayern Munich and all been impressive so far. Mueller has only completed his first full season last year, but looks like he's been there forever, a very mature player. Klose is lethal at international level, and particularly good in the air. He's not played loads of club football, but looks to have saved his best for the World Cup. Lukas Podolski reminds me of Milan Baros. He is an incredibly greedy player, he will always opt to shoot given half a chance, but he does have a good goalscoring record at this level. He caused England's Glen Johnson to have a terrible game last time out and will look to torment Argentina's full backs in the same way.
I think we will see goals here as both have good attacks and weaknesses to exploit in defence. Saying that, I think Germany have more threats and if Argentina go behind it will be interesting if they revert to type and implode spectactularly! I can't imagine Maradona being a calming influence!
Betting
I fancy goals goals, goals here and might go as far as over 4.5 available at 15/2 at Stan James for some longer odds. I would look at the sendings off market and take Blue Sq's 11/4 on Yes. I would back Germany in 90 minutes at a frankly massive 12/5 at Ladbrokes too. Germany to qualify at 13/10 with bet365 might appeal to those with less cojones!
Quarter finals continued...
So, here we are, after what seems like an eternity without football we are back today with the first 2 Quarter-Finals of this World Cup. I have looked at Brazil v Holland in my previous post so I will cast my glance towards Uruguay v Ghana in the underdogs game tonight. One of these 2 will make the Semi-Finals this year!
Both of these teams probably wouldn't have expected to make the Semi-Finals before the tournament began and yet one of them will do. As it goes, Uruguay were my tip pre-tournament for an outsider and I'm very happy with my investment at 200/1! But, to show I'm no genius I thought Ghana would really struggle in the absence of Chelsea's Michael Essien and yet here they are.
Uruguay v Ghana, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time
Defence
Ghana are a physically imposing team throughout the pitch and that is definitely true in defence. The full-backs are John Paintsil of Fulham at right back and Hans Sarpei of Leverkusen at left back. Paintsil might have failed to make it at West Ham, but flourished under Roy Hodgson at Fulham. I think he's a very good player who is capable of helping out in both defence and attack. Sarpei is 34 now and coming to the end of his career. This somewhat limits his attacking forays, but his experience means that he can still be very useful in defence. In the centre of defence are 2 behemoths of men in John Mensah of Sunderland and normally Samuel Inkoom of FC Basel. Mensah is by far the more experienced of the 2 with Inkoom only 20 years old and a graduate of the very successful under-21 team of last year. Defence has been Ghana's strong suit in this World Cup so far and I wouldn't expect Uruguay to get much change out of them, they will have to make the most of any chances that come their way.
Uruguay have a much more experienced and settled squad generally and this has been borne out in some very good team displays in defence so far. They also have the experience of playing in Europe which some of their Ghanaian counterparts don not yet. Victorino and Fucile lined up in the full-back positions and I would expect them to do the same for this match. Both are very solid full-backs, capable of defending and attacking as required, and Jorge Fucile has particularly impressed me so far in the tournament and for Porto last year. At centre back the pair I would expect to see is the 2 Diego's, Lugano of Fenerbahce and Godin of Villarreal. These 2 have played together for a few years now for Uruguay and you can see the understanding that has developed. Personally, I would expect Diego Godin to move to one of Europe's bigger clubs before long. In back-up they also have the highly rated Martin Caceres of Barcelona who can slot in at right-back or centre half. I really don't see them having too much trouble containing Asamoah Gyan.
Midfield
Ghana's midfield is missing the presence of their 2 most famous recent players, Michael Essien and Stephen Appiah. Whilst Appiah is present in South Africa he isn't a starter anymore. A lot of people, me included, thought they might struggle in their absence. But, they have actually been very impressive and have shown us some of the future stars we might soon see in Europe's big leagues. The 2 Boateng's started in the centre in their last match against the USA, Kevin-Prince of Portsmouth and Derek of Getafe. Kevin was one of the few bright spots in Portsmouth's campaign last year and has carried that form over into the World Cup. Anthony Annan is a very promising midfielder too who has been linked with a big move before and was looking good until injury struck in the last group game. He might be fitter for this though, and provides a creative edge they miss in his absence. Sulley Muntari, Jonathon Mensah and Andre Ayew make-up the 5 man midfield. Mensah is a huge presence and often sits in front of the defence providing extra cover. Muntari is good one minute and horrendous the next as anyone who has followed him at Portsmouth or Inter Milan will back me up on! Andre Ayew is a typically athletic midfielder who does the simple things well and covers a lot of ground. I think Ghana need Anthony Annan to be firing on all cylinders to have a chance as without that they look one dimensional and flat and very unlikely to score.
Uruguay are a blend of youth and experience in midfield. Maxi Pereira is a defender by trade and often plays the part of a holding midfielder in this team with very little remit to get beyond the halfway line. Whilst not his natural postion he seems to have adappted well to the role and does provide security for Uruguay's 3 attackers to stay upfield. Alvaro Pereira and Egidio Arévalo Ríos play a bit ahead of Maxi Pereira and supply Diego Forlan with the ball to create opportunities for himself and the other 2 attackers. Both are good players with Alvaro Pereira already in Europe at 19 at FC Porto and showing a lot of promise when given game time. Nicolas Lodeiro is at Ajax and is considered the big creative hope of Uruguyan football, however the coach, Oscar Tabares, doesn't seem to trust him enough to start yet. Expect to see him introduced late on to open up Ghana if Uruguay are tired. Sebastien Eguren is another who might feature, he is more of a defensive player and has a lot of European experience. I would expect Ghana to flood the midfield to try and stop the supply lines to Diego Forlan, but I can see Uruguay's experience telling and winning this battle.
Attackers
This is where Ghana have traditionally had problems and that has continued in this World Cup. Asamoah Gyan is ther lone striker and he has not massively impressed me so far. If you just look at the Top Goalscorer leaderboard and see his name with 3 goals next to it, you'd probably wonder what more he has to do to impress me? Well, 2 of those were penalties and in open play he looks cumbersome and his finishing isn't great either in my opinion. He will really need to up his game if he's going to score tonight and I think Uruguay's defence will marshal him with ease.
Uruguay have one of my favourite players Diego Forlan playing for them. In my opinion he is a vastly under-rated player in this country. European Golden Boot Winner in 2 of the last 3 years and not playing for Real Madrid or Barcelona is one hell of an achievement for me and one he doesn't get enough recognition for. He has performed more of a creative role in this World Cup but has 2 goals and is laying on lots of chances for his strike partner Luis Suarez of Ajax. Talking of whom has 3 goals so far and scored 49 in all competitions for Ajax last year. I can see hm getting 1 or 2 more here and providing David Villa with a challenge for the Golden Boot as well as probably earning a big move. The trio of attackers is made up by Edinson Cavani of Palermo. A player recently linked with Tottenham and a very creative influence too. I think he'll get his move to a bigger club this summer and go on to have a great impact wherever he ends up. I can see these 3 giving Ghana's defence all sorts of problems and I think if they score early they could go on to get 3 or even 4.
Betting
Both of these teams are tight at the back, but Ghana are also pretty toothless up front, so I'll back Uruguay to keep a clean sheet at a best priced 5/4 wih Coral and Ladbrokes. I'd also have the 2nd half as the half with most goals at a best priced 6/5 with Victor Chandler. I'll take Uruguay to do the job in 90 minutes with 11/10 widely available. For a longer shot I would probably look at 3-0 or 4-0 scorelines to Uruguay, these can be backed at around 20/1 and 50/1 respectively. Forlan and Suarez lead the betting at 9'2 and 11/2 for First Goalscorer and I'd look at that too.
Both of these teams probably wouldn't have expected to make the Semi-Finals before the tournament began and yet one of them will do. As it goes, Uruguay were my tip pre-tournament for an outsider and I'm very happy with my investment at 200/1! But, to show I'm no genius I thought Ghana would really struggle in the absence of Chelsea's Michael Essien and yet here they are.
Uruguay v Ghana, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time
Defence
Ghana are a physically imposing team throughout the pitch and that is definitely true in defence. The full-backs are John Paintsil of Fulham at right back and Hans Sarpei of Leverkusen at left back. Paintsil might have failed to make it at West Ham, but flourished under Roy Hodgson at Fulham. I think he's a very good player who is capable of helping out in both defence and attack. Sarpei is 34 now and coming to the end of his career. This somewhat limits his attacking forays, but his experience means that he can still be very useful in defence. In the centre of defence are 2 behemoths of men in John Mensah of Sunderland and normally Samuel Inkoom of FC Basel. Mensah is by far the more experienced of the 2 with Inkoom only 20 years old and a graduate of the very successful under-21 team of last year. Defence has been Ghana's strong suit in this World Cup so far and I wouldn't expect Uruguay to get much change out of them, they will have to make the most of any chances that come their way.
Uruguay have a much more experienced and settled squad generally and this has been borne out in some very good team displays in defence so far. They also have the experience of playing in Europe which some of their Ghanaian counterparts don not yet. Victorino and Fucile lined up in the full-back positions and I would expect them to do the same for this match. Both are very solid full-backs, capable of defending and attacking as required, and Jorge Fucile has particularly impressed me so far in the tournament and for Porto last year. At centre back the pair I would expect to see is the 2 Diego's, Lugano of Fenerbahce and Godin of Villarreal. These 2 have played together for a few years now for Uruguay and you can see the understanding that has developed. Personally, I would expect Diego Godin to move to one of Europe's bigger clubs before long. In back-up they also have the highly rated Martin Caceres of Barcelona who can slot in at right-back or centre half. I really don't see them having too much trouble containing Asamoah Gyan.
Midfield
Ghana's midfield is missing the presence of their 2 most famous recent players, Michael Essien and Stephen Appiah. Whilst Appiah is present in South Africa he isn't a starter anymore. A lot of people, me included, thought they might struggle in their absence. But, they have actually been very impressive and have shown us some of the future stars we might soon see in Europe's big leagues. The 2 Boateng's started in the centre in their last match against the USA, Kevin-Prince of Portsmouth and Derek of Getafe. Kevin was one of the few bright spots in Portsmouth's campaign last year and has carried that form over into the World Cup. Anthony Annan is a very promising midfielder too who has been linked with a big move before and was looking good until injury struck in the last group game. He might be fitter for this though, and provides a creative edge they miss in his absence. Sulley Muntari, Jonathon Mensah and Andre Ayew make-up the 5 man midfield. Mensah is a huge presence and often sits in front of the defence providing extra cover. Muntari is good one minute and horrendous the next as anyone who has followed him at Portsmouth or Inter Milan will back me up on! Andre Ayew is a typically athletic midfielder who does the simple things well and covers a lot of ground. I think Ghana need Anthony Annan to be firing on all cylinders to have a chance as without that they look one dimensional and flat and very unlikely to score.
Uruguay are a blend of youth and experience in midfield. Maxi Pereira is a defender by trade and often plays the part of a holding midfielder in this team with very little remit to get beyond the halfway line. Whilst not his natural postion he seems to have adappted well to the role and does provide security for Uruguay's 3 attackers to stay upfield. Alvaro Pereira and Egidio Arévalo Ríos play a bit ahead of Maxi Pereira and supply Diego Forlan with the ball to create opportunities for himself and the other 2 attackers. Both are good players with Alvaro Pereira already in Europe at 19 at FC Porto and showing a lot of promise when given game time. Nicolas Lodeiro is at Ajax and is considered the big creative hope of Uruguyan football, however the coach, Oscar Tabares, doesn't seem to trust him enough to start yet. Expect to see him introduced late on to open up Ghana if Uruguay are tired. Sebastien Eguren is another who might feature, he is more of a defensive player and has a lot of European experience. I would expect Ghana to flood the midfield to try and stop the supply lines to Diego Forlan, but I can see Uruguay's experience telling and winning this battle.
Attackers
This is where Ghana have traditionally had problems and that has continued in this World Cup. Asamoah Gyan is ther lone striker and he has not massively impressed me so far. If you just look at the Top Goalscorer leaderboard and see his name with 3 goals next to it, you'd probably wonder what more he has to do to impress me? Well, 2 of those were penalties and in open play he looks cumbersome and his finishing isn't great either in my opinion. He will really need to up his game if he's going to score tonight and I think Uruguay's defence will marshal him with ease.
Uruguay have one of my favourite players Diego Forlan playing for them. In my opinion he is a vastly under-rated player in this country. European Golden Boot Winner in 2 of the last 3 years and not playing for Real Madrid or Barcelona is one hell of an achievement for me and one he doesn't get enough recognition for. He has performed more of a creative role in this World Cup but has 2 goals and is laying on lots of chances for his strike partner Luis Suarez of Ajax. Talking of whom has 3 goals so far and scored 49 in all competitions for Ajax last year. I can see hm getting 1 or 2 more here and providing David Villa with a challenge for the Golden Boot as well as probably earning a big move. The trio of attackers is made up by Edinson Cavani of Palermo. A player recently linked with Tottenham and a very creative influence too. I think he'll get his move to a bigger club this summer and go on to have a great impact wherever he ends up. I can see these 3 giving Ghana's defence all sorts of problems and I think if they score early they could go on to get 3 or even 4.
Betting
Both of these teams are tight at the back, but Ghana are also pretty toothless up front, so I'll back Uruguay to keep a clean sheet at a best priced 5/4 wih Coral and Ladbrokes. I'd also have the 2nd half as the half with most goals at a best priced 6/5 with Victor Chandler. I'll take Uruguay to do the job in 90 minutes with 11/10 widely available. For a longer shot I would probably look at 3-0 or 4-0 scorelines to Uruguay, these can be backed at around 20/1 and 50/1 respectively. Forlan and Suarez lead the betting at 9'2 and 11/2 for First Goalscorer and I'd look at that too.
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