Well...this weekend seems to be a weekend of finals in terms of betting with the Champions League and also the play-off finals from The Championship as well as Leagues 1 and 2 in England. France is the only league in Europe that I pay any attention too that hasn't finished yet, but it's last games form there so I'll be avoiding them as nearly every position is tied up and I don't know how seriously teams will be taking their matches. The numerous end of season matches we have could well be dull affairs as there is so much riding on them that everyone is extremely careful to avoid any slip-ups that will cost their team the match. As mentioned previously, I am happy to keep the tips coming over the summer months from the leagues and tournaments that are still going on if there is a demand for it. So please leave a comment below if you're still wanting some guidance over the warmer months. Music comes from Black Rebel Motorcycle Club and the wondrous Fault Line, a cracking tune from a cracking album.
Stevenage v Torquay, League 2 Play-off Final 2011, Saturday 1500
The first match we come to this fine weekend is the League 2 play-off final with Stevenage and Torquay meeting. Stevenage under Graham Westley have become very effective, but pretty widely hated due to their managers many eccentricities. He is something of a modern day John Beck, he is more than happy to rub teams up the worng way before the match, to water the pitch, to take breaks around half an hour in to the match. He's a very intriguing character. They are a team built from the back forward, I personally remember seeing Jon Ashton at centre half against Cambridge and being hugely impressed. He's a bleeding enormous lump of a man, and he will clear the lines at every opportunity as well as posing a threat from set-pieces. Torquay beat Cambridge in the play-offs 3 years ago now in one of the most pathetic matches you're ever likely to see. Both teams froze on the day and either really deserved to go up after that performance. Torquay have a very similar goal difference to Stevenage, but they have scored and conceded more to get there. Chris Zebroski up front is their star man and is their top scorer. I see this being a tight match, mostly due to Stevenage's inherent reserved play. I think both sides will be happy to head into the break level. I would take the Half Time Draw at 2-14 with Betfair and also possibly take Stevenage to win 1-0 for a bit of extra money, best price for that is 8.0 with Totesport.
Huddersfield v P.O.S.H, League 1 Play-off Final 2011, Sunday 1500
I can barely bring myself to talk about this absolutely repulsive town and team, but for the sake of betting I'll try. Just before I do though I would advise everyone to avoid the dank, depressing, grey dump at all costs. A more horrible town you're unlikely to find. Now, back to the match. Both sides have reputations for playing attacking football under young, forward-thinking managers. Huddersfield under Lee Clark have a solid defence allied to a young, pacey attack. They have old head Zinedine Kilbane in midfield to provide calm and guidance to an otherwise youthful forward line. Jordan Rhodes has been a revelation since Roy Keane foolishly let him leave Ipswich for peanuts last year. With the future England international Benik Afobe also up front on loan from Arsenal, they have both pace and flair in abundance and have been unplayable at times this season. If they play to the best of their ability tomorrow then Huddersfield should win this comfortably. The problem will come if they let their standards slip. P.O.S.H are also a very attacking side, and if gaps appear in the Huddersfield backline they have the players to exploit them, in particular Craig Mackail-Smith. This will be likely to be his final match for P.O.S.H as both QPR and Norwich are supposedly looking to give him a go in the Prem next season. I think this will go to form if there's an early goal and we'll see end to end attacking and plenty of goals. I fancy Mackail-Smith to sign off with a goal and you can get 2.87 anytime with Stan James. I would also probably go for the Second Half to be higest scoring at 2.1 with Coral as both teams look to win.
Reading v Swansea, Championship Play-off Final 2011, Monday 1500
Another match with two sides perfectly capable of plenty of goals if the mood takes them. Swansea have been low scorers for the past few seasons, but have come alive of late with the loan signing of Fabio Borini from Chelsea. He has already agreed a move back home to Parma on the back of his excellent performances for the Jacks and this will be his last match in England. Reading have had one of the better strikers in the whole of the Championship this season in Shane Long. He's always been on the fringes of being the main man, but has come alive this season and has caught the attention of most of the Premier League outside of the Top 6. Whether Reading get there or not I would expect to see him in the top division next season. For Swansea, Ashley Williams has been a rock at the back and has picked up numerous club awards over the past few seasons and probably deserves his chance at Premier League level. There is also the fact that Swansea manager Brendan Rodgers was in charge at The Royals before Brian McDermott took over. He had not exactly set the world alight at Reading, but will probably feel he has something to prove to his old club and will be even more desperate to win this one. The bookies all have this as a tight one, but I think it could come alive if there is a goal before the hour mark. These matches are often dependent on a goal to get them going as the teams then know they have little choice but to go for a goal themselves. I fancy a goal early on so I'm happy to take on odds of 2.25 at William Hill on Over 2.5 goals. I would also get on Shane Long to add to his reputation with a goal, odds of 3.25 at Ladbrokes for him to score anytime look superb to me.
Manchester United v Barcelona, Champions League Final 2011, Saturday 1945
Da, da da. With both sides wrapping up the leagues in their respective countries with matches to spare, they have had plenty of time to prepare for this. It's a repeat of the final from 2009 and Sir Wrigley reckons he's learnt from the mistakes he made in that final. I think the biggest mistake was thinking he had a hope in hell of matching them anywhere on the pitch. Barcelona will go down in history as the most dominant team the game has ever seen. They regularly rack up possession percentages around 75% and no team can compete with that. The only way to beat them is to defend deep, let them play in front of you and hope they are short of inspiration for a change. Then hope to nick a goal when you get one of the few chances that will befall the opposition. I have seen a lot of people getting their knickers in a bunch this week over Barcelona's supposed 'constant cheating'. Now, I'm no fan of either Dani Alves or Sergio Busquets, as they're both two of the most disgusting cheats I've ever seen. The amount of rolling round, harranguing the referee and waving of imaginary cards is abhorrent. However, we are talking about Man Utd, the team that pretty much invented surrounding the referee to gain an advantage. And the disgusting antics of Alves and Biscuits are somewhat offset by the fact you are watching three of the world's best weaving patterns in play in Messi, Xavi and Iniesta. When you compare those three to Man Utd's probable midfield of Giggs, Carrick and Fletcher/Anderson, you get some ides of how much of a task Fergie faces. Giggs has done well in his more central role, but he pales in comparison to the very best there, Carrick is just about the worst big game player you'll ever see and Fletcher has barely played whilst Anderson has just gotten very fat. I think there's only one possible outcome, one-off match or not, and that's another Barcelona trophy parade. Take them at a fantastic 2.2 with William Hill to get the job done in 90 minutes. I would also be tempted to dabble at odds of 10.0 on a repeat of the 2-0 scoreline from 2009 at William Hill too.
Saturday, 28 May 2011
Friday, 20 May 2011
Better late than never...
Whether you agree with the title or not is probably up for debate, but nevertheless I'll treat you to a blog even though I don't really have time. I'm sure I have your utmost sympathies. Anyway, we're into the last matches of the season in most leagues so it can be incredibly difficult to predict the outcome of the games without team news. I'll try and find some games with something riding on them so we all have a better chance of a final payday. Lord knows what I'll be betting on over the summer, I'll have to research the South American Leagues I think. Maybe even tennis, although I certainly wont be tipping much of that and harming my wonderful reputation! I'll start with a bit of a political twist to music this week with Anti-Flag and One Trillion Dollars.
Aston Villa v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
This match should really be a no bet as both don't really have a great deal to play for except pride. However I see it as a potential thriller, with both sides going for broke with no repercussions to speak of. Pool seem to care little for the Europa League next season, but it looks like they'll have to stomach it. Villa have looked much better in the games since safety was assured for another season and Gary Mac has probably done his chances no harm as boss if Ged Houllier fails to reappear next season. The cynical amongst us may point to players like Ashley Young playing for a big move in the summer, but whatever the reason, Villa look impressive to me. I think they should be roughly even prices with Pool so I'll be having some on them at an appealing 3.25 with Victor Chandler. As an aside, if you ever want to get against Pool then Chandlers seem to be very happy to go best price.
Fulham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Once again I'm going against my better judgement on this really and playing it even though there is relatively little to play for. Arsenal are fighting for third spot and automatic qualification for the Champions League group stages, but it's out of their hands really. And they're in fooking terrible form losing 3 of the last 4. Villa last weekend were the latest beneficiaries of their debatable defending. Gooners fans must be tearing their hair out that Pat 'Yes Boss' Rice has signed an extension to his contract. Wenger has many qualities, but I think he needs someone to challenge him on his sides horrible defending at times, and Rice does not appear to be that man. Fulham seem to have beaten their away day blues as well as well as just playing with much more freedom since their place was confirmed a few weeks ago. Players like Clint Dempsey and Brede Hangeland pose the sort of problems Arsenal hate with their power and direct running, as well as set piece threat. I think it's well worth opposing the Gooners and seeing more protests from the supporters fed up with the increasing prices and reduced spectacle on offer. They are freely available at 1.91 at Coral Double Chance with the Draw and I'll be staking that.
Man Utd v Blackpool, Sunday 1600
This match has the potential to be an absolute belter for the neutrals. For the generally 8 or 9 fingers on one hand freak shows that are Blackpools support, those extra nails will be getting well and truly bitten. They must fancy their chances with United's eyes understandably on the Champions League and Barcelona. They're going to get their arses anded to them in my opinion, but they'll be wanting the key players as fresh as possible so expect to see the likes of Obertan and Bebe making an appearance. This should hugely fire up the Seasiders. I honestly don't think the two mentioned players would make Blackpool's line-up, so they have to fancy their chances. And as we all now know, defending will not be their priority. Mainly becasue they're worse than hopeless at it. Expect goals, and plenty of them. Back Over 3.5 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Gaziantepspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1800
This one should be interesting. Besiktas have not got anything to play for and Gaziantep have the chance to sign off for the season by beating one of Turkey's big boys. Gaziantep have secured Europa League football at the expense of Besiktas and it has mostly been because of their imperious home form. They have won 10 of their 16 home matches so far, only tasting defeat twice. They have only conceded 16 in that time too. And if you've ever watched any Turkish football you'll understand that's an impressive figure in a league that makes some pub football back four's look exceptional. The bookies have been cutting Gaziantep, but I still think there's some value in getting on the boat. I'd take them on a -1.0 Asian Hcap at 2.1 with Bet365, but I'd also encourage a back at 1.8 with Corbett Sports on the outright match prices.
Karabukspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
The battle at the top of the SuperLig has reached the last weekend, but it is as good as over with Trabzonspor requiring a 9 goal swing to topple Fener from the peak of the table. This will likely be beyond them, but Karabuk have little to play for at all and I would fully expect to see Trabzon run up an impressive scoreline in vain. They are not big scorers generally, the 3-1 win last weekend was a bit of a rarity in itself, but there's nothing for them to do except throw the kitchen sink at the opposition and pray for a minor miracle. The fact Yilmaz is back for them is huge, he has scored around 70% of their goals recently, and will need to be on top form to give them any hope of a memorable last day triumph. As I say, they wont do it, but they'll go down trying! I'd even back them at -2.0 with Bet365 at an appealing 2.5 such is my confidence in them.
Sivasspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
Another interesting match up with Fener needing to do no more than win really. They'll be happy with a 1-0 win, as they must be confident that Trabzon will fail to beat Karabuk by 10 goals. Sivasspor's season finished a few weeks ago and they will be unlikely to put up too much of a fight when Fener inevitably go ahead. They'll be thinking of their summer holidays, and probably a move to a club that can pay their wages. Fener and Sivass have both been involved in some very high scoring matches this season, and the odds reflect that. However comma I can see this being one of those matches where both teams are far too happy to settle for a low scoring match with no effort or risk of injury. Get on Under 2.5 goals at 2.62 with William Hill now.
Aston Villa v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
This match should really be a no bet as both don't really have a great deal to play for except pride. However I see it as a potential thriller, with both sides going for broke with no repercussions to speak of. Pool seem to care little for the Europa League next season, but it looks like they'll have to stomach it. Villa have looked much better in the games since safety was assured for another season and Gary Mac has probably done his chances no harm as boss if Ged Houllier fails to reappear next season. The cynical amongst us may point to players like Ashley Young playing for a big move in the summer, but whatever the reason, Villa look impressive to me. I think they should be roughly even prices with Pool so I'll be having some on them at an appealing 3.25 with Victor Chandler. As an aside, if you ever want to get against Pool then Chandlers seem to be very happy to go best price.
Fulham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Once again I'm going against my better judgement on this really and playing it even though there is relatively little to play for. Arsenal are fighting for third spot and automatic qualification for the Champions League group stages, but it's out of their hands really. And they're in fooking terrible form losing 3 of the last 4. Villa last weekend were the latest beneficiaries of their debatable defending. Gooners fans must be tearing their hair out that Pat 'Yes Boss' Rice has signed an extension to his contract. Wenger has many qualities, but I think he needs someone to challenge him on his sides horrible defending at times, and Rice does not appear to be that man. Fulham seem to have beaten their away day blues as well as well as just playing with much more freedom since their place was confirmed a few weeks ago. Players like Clint Dempsey and Brede Hangeland pose the sort of problems Arsenal hate with their power and direct running, as well as set piece threat. I think it's well worth opposing the Gooners and seeing more protests from the supporters fed up with the increasing prices and reduced spectacle on offer. They are freely available at 1.91 at Coral Double Chance with the Draw and I'll be staking that.
Man Utd v Blackpool, Sunday 1600
This match has the potential to be an absolute belter for the neutrals. For the generally 8 or 9 fingers on one hand freak shows that are Blackpools support, those extra nails will be getting well and truly bitten. They must fancy their chances with United's eyes understandably on the Champions League and Barcelona. They're going to get their arses anded to them in my opinion, but they'll be wanting the key players as fresh as possible so expect to see the likes of Obertan and Bebe making an appearance. This should hugely fire up the Seasiders. I honestly don't think the two mentioned players would make Blackpool's line-up, so they have to fancy their chances. And as we all now know, defending will not be their priority. Mainly becasue they're worse than hopeless at it. Expect goals, and plenty of them. Back Over 3.5 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Gaziantepspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1800
This one should be interesting. Besiktas have not got anything to play for and Gaziantep have the chance to sign off for the season by beating one of Turkey's big boys. Gaziantep have secured Europa League football at the expense of Besiktas and it has mostly been because of their imperious home form. They have won 10 of their 16 home matches so far, only tasting defeat twice. They have only conceded 16 in that time too. And if you've ever watched any Turkish football you'll understand that's an impressive figure in a league that makes some pub football back four's look exceptional. The bookies have been cutting Gaziantep, but I still think there's some value in getting on the boat. I'd take them on a -1.0 Asian Hcap at 2.1 with Bet365, but I'd also encourage a back at 1.8 with Corbett Sports on the outright match prices.
Karabukspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
The battle at the top of the SuperLig has reached the last weekend, but it is as good as over with Trabzonspor requiring a 9 goal swing to topple Fener from the peak of the table. This will likely be beyond them, but Karabuk have little to play for at all and I would fully expect to see Trabzon run up an impressive scoreline in vain. They are not big scorers generally, the 3-1 win last weekend was a bit of a rarity in itself, but there's nothing for them to do except throw the kitchen sink at the opposition and pray for a minor miracle. The fact Yilmaz is back for them is huge, he has scored around 70% of their goals recently, and will need to be on top form to give them any hope of a memorable last day triumph. As I say, they wont do it, but they'll go down trying! I'd even back them at -2.0 with Bet365 at an appealing 2.5 such is my confidence in them.
Sivasspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
Another interesting match up with Fener needing to do no more than win really. They'll be happy with a 1-0 win, as they must be confident that Trabzon will fail to beat Karabuk by 10 goals. Sivasspor's season finished a few weeks ago and they will be unlikely to put up too much of a fight when Fener inevitably go ahead. They'll be thinking of their summer holidays, and probably a move to a club that can pay their wages. Fener and Sivass have both been involved in some very high scoring matches this season, and the odds reflect that. However comma I can see this being one of those matches where both teams are far too happy to settle for a low scoring match with no effort or risk of injury. Get on Under 2.5 goals at 2.62 with William Hill now.
Friday, 6 May 2011
A thrilling climax...
Well, here we are at seasons end in nearly all the European Leagues. It's been a thriller as ever with the top 3 looking to be Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal, wow! This is something completely new isn't it? That being said, if Citeh can hold on to 4th spot then with the backing they have and the lure of Champions League football they may well be able to push on that bit more next year and shake things up. This week also saw both Man Utd and Barcelona make it through to the Champions League final at Wembley almost at a canter. Both sides scored first to as good as put their respective ties out of doubt and went on to secure their place. There's a lot of talk around how United can possibly beat Barca, and in my opinion, they can't. Whilst they are solid in defence for the most part, and Rooney and Hernandez are looking promising as a partnership, that midfield is dogshit. Utter tripe. Barca may not thrash them, Sir Wrigley should be too astute for that, but United will not see the ball and should be easily beaten. Music this week comes with a summery vibe...Mos Def and Ms Fat Booty.
Aston Villa v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Normally I'd avoid Wigan matches, and avoid watching Villa or Wigan matches. A pair of more turgid sides there is not in the Premier League. But, this time I'm keen to be involved. Villa are priced a bit longer than usual as it's all to play for for Wigan, and I think this is a bit of an error. Villa will still want to push as high up the table as they can, the players need to prove themselves, and the club will make more money that way. Darren Bent is always good for a goal against teams of Wigan's quality, or lack thereof, and I think Villa will probably nick it. Wigan are in the position they are for a reason. And that reason is their complete lack of quality barring Rodallega and McCarthy, neither of whom are scoring enough either. Get on Villa at 1.85 with Paddy Power now.
West Ham v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
This match is the definition of a relegation 6 pointer. The Hammers have retreated back to the majority of the seasons form since February's renaissance and are looking diabolical again. Blackburn have tried to play more football since the removal of Lamb Shank lookalike Big Fat Sam, but have failed miserably. They look toothless up front since the reinstatement of Jason Roberts, funny that, and leak goals at the back at an alarming rate. They've been particularly poor away from home so far this season and the Hammers must win this one to have a hope of staying up. And, I think they'll do it! They may be out of form, but they'll know it's now or never, and their strikers will all be playing to impress other managers and stay in the league even if the club fall. I see them giving their fans some hope to cling to. They are 2.0 are most firms and I'd take that.
Man Utd v Chelsea, Sunday 1610
The Big One at the other end of the table at Old Trafford. The home of the Asian fan hosts Chavski on Sunday and Utd will presumably be confident enough with their mostly imperious home form. Chelsea have hit form just at the right time to make a late push for the title and must win this or it's really all over for them, and possibly Ancelotti. Fernando Torres finally has his first goal, but still looks like a summer spent resting would do him good, and Drogba looks back to his best when through the centre. United have all their big guns to call on after resting most against Schalke, somewhat devaluing UEFA's premier competition, and Sir Wrigley will know this will finally be the title to beat Pool's 18 title record. He will send them out fired up for this. Wayne Rooney is back, and in one of his goal gluts, and I reckon he'll get one in this. David Luiz still leaves too much space and he should exploit this. I think the 2.4 at Paddy Power on a United win is good value as is the quotes of 2.6 for Rooney anytime with the same firm.
Valencia v Real Sociedad, Saturday 1700
A top v bottom clash from La Liga on Saturday afternoon. Valencia are in good goalscoring form with 15 goals in their last 6 matches and Roberto Soldado has 7 of those. He is in the form of his life and is greatly enjoying the service of the likes of Juan Mata and Joaquin. Sociedad have climbed to mid table, but are still only 4 points clear of relegation. They beat Barcelona last week, with the Catalans clearly having both eyes on Madrid in the week. They have wrapped up the title and know they can afford to drop points and rest for the Champions League. So I wouldn't read into that result too much. A more revealing stat is that they have lost 13 of their 17 away matches, and Valencia have only lost 4 times at home. They should coast this one and I'd back Soldado to score anytime at 2.05 with Victor Chandler.
Genoa v Sampdoria, Sunday 1945
The Genoa derby is on Sunday night in Serie A and it's usually a feisty affair! The two clubs have had fairly mediocre seasons this year and local pride is about all that's left to play for now. Since selling Antonio Cassano Samp have looked goalshy and have slumped to midtable. Genoa have lacked goals all season and that has kept them well away from European football next year. Expect all those anxieties and anger to be taken out on each other in this. Especially with the crowd baying after all day to get tanked up. I would back a Red Card at 2.7 with Unibet.
Bucaspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
Three games left to play and Trabzon and Fener are still locked together at the top of the table. They have been putting everything into their games of late knowing that any slip up at this stage will probably see them out of the race for the SuperLig. Some of the other matches have proved hard to predict with teams lacking effort in some matches then coming out all guns blazing next time, but the two giants have been all out all the time. They are a very short 1.3 away from home, but rightly so in my opinion. Bucaspor are 8 points away from safety and can be relegated if they lose this, and they will. Trabzon have led at half time in their last 4 home matches and have gone on to win them all from that position. That makes quotes of 1.83 at Paddy Power on such an eventuality look very appealing to me.
Sivasspor v Ankaragucu, Sunday 1800
This one sees Sivasspor with the chance to make sure they spend another seaosn in the SuperLig. As mentioned in the above tip, Bucaspor are 8 points adrift of Sivass with three to play. They play at the same time, but I'm sure Sivass will see this as perfectly winnable and be able to make themselves safe. They have had a revival since xmas and should see an Ankara side with little to play for off. Ankara shouldn't be discounted, they're a decent enough side, but I fancy Sivass to get the points they need. Back them at 2. with most firms to do so.
Aston Villa v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Normally I'd avoid Wigan matches, and avoid watching Villa or Wigan matches. A pair of more turgid sides there is not in the Premier League. But, this time I'm keen to be involved. Villa are priced a bit longer than usual as it's all to play for for Wigan, and I think this is a bit of an error. Villa will still want to push as high up the table as they can, the players need to prove themselves, and the club will make more money that way. Darren Bent is always good for a goal against teams of Wigan's quality, or lack thereof, and I think Villa will probably nick it. Wigan are in the position they are for a reason. And that reason is their complete lack of quality barring Rodallega and McCarthy, neither of whom are scoring enough either. Get on Villa at 1.85 with Paddy Power now.
West Ham v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
This match is the definition of a relegation 6 pointer. The Hammers have retreated back to the majority of the seasons form since February's renaissance and are looking diabolical again. Blackburn have tried to play more football since the removal of Lamb Shank lookalike Big Fat Sam, but have failed miserably. They look toothless up front since the reinstatement of Jason Roberts, funny that, and leak goals at the back at an alarming rate. They've been particularly poor away from home so far this season and the Hammers must win this one to have a hope of staying up. And, I think they'll do it! They may be out of form, but they'll know it's now or never, and their strikers will all be playing to impress other managers and stay in the league even if the club fall. I see them giving their fans some hope to cling to. They are 2.0 are most firms and I'd take that.
Man Utd v Chelsea, Sunday 1610
The Big One at the other end of the table at Old Trafford. The home of the Asian fan hosts Chavski on Sunday and Utd will presumably be confident enough with their mostly imperious home form. Chelsea have hit form just at the right time to make a late push for the title and must win this or it's really all over for them, and possibly Ancelotti. Fernando Torres finally has his first goal, but still looks like a summer spent resting would do him good, and Drogba looks back to his best when through the centre. United have all their big guns to call on after resting most against Schalke, somewhat devaluing UEFA's premier competition, and Sir Wrigley will know this will finally be the title to beat Pool's 18 title record. He will send them out fired up for this. Wayne Rooney is back, and in one of his goal gluts, and I reckon he'll get one in this. David Luiz still leaves too much space and he should exploit this. I think the 2.4 at Paddy Power on a United win is good value as is the quotes of 2.6 for Rooney anytime with the same firm.
Valencia v Real Sociedad, Saturday 1700
A top v bottom clash from La Liga on Saturday afternoon. Valencia are in good goalscoring form with 15 goals in their last 6 matches and Roberto Soldado has 7 of those. He is in the form of his life and is greatly enjoying the service of the likes of Juan Mata and Joaquin. Sociedad have climbed to mid table, but are still only 4 points clear of relegation. They beat Barcelona last week, with the Catalans clearly having both eyes on Madrid in the week. They have wrapped up the title and know they can afford to drop points and rest for the Champions League. So I wouldn't read into that result too much. A more revealing stat is that they have lost 13 of their 17 away matches, and Valencia have only lost 4 times at home. They should coast this one and I'd back Soldado to score anytime at 2.05 with Victor Chandler.
Genoa v Sampdoria, Sunday 1945
The Genoa derby is on Sunday night in Serie A and it's usually a feisty affair! The two clubs have had fairly mediocre seasons this year and local pride is about all that's left to play for now. Since selling Antonio Cassano Samp have looked goalshy and have slumped to midtable. Genoa have lacked goals all season and that has kept them well away from European football next year. Expect all those anxieties and anger to be taken out on each other in this. Especially with the crowd baying after all day to get tanked up. I would back a Red Card at 2.7 with Unibet.
Bucaspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
Three games left to play and Trabzon and Fener are still locked together at the top of the table. They have been putting everything into their games of late knowing that any slip up at this stage will probably see them out of the race for the SuperLig. Some of the other matches have proved hard to predict with teams lacking effort in some matches then coming out all guns blazing next time, but the two giants have been all out all the time. They are a very short 1.3 away from home, but rightly so in my opinion. Bucaspor are 8 points away from safety and can be relegated if they lose this, and they will. Trabzon have led at half time in their last 4 home matches and have gone on to win them all from that position. That makes quotes of 1.83 at Paddy Power on such an eventuality look very appealing to me.
Sivasspor v Ankaragucu, Sunday 1800
This one sees Sivasspor with the chance to make sure they spend another seaosn in the SuperLig. As mentioned in the above tip, Bucaspor are 8 points adrift of Sivass with three to play. They play at the same time, but I'm sure Sivass will see this as perfectly winnable and be able to make themselves safe. They have had a revival since xmas and should see an Ankara side with little to play for off. Ankara shouldn't be discounted, they're a decent enough side, but I fancy Sivass to get the points they need. Back them at 2. with most firms to do so.
Thursday, 28 April 2011
A return to form, sort of...
Well, I actually got a few last week, didn't I? However comma what I'd really like to have a little pre-tip moan about is last nights 'football' match between the 'world's greatest teams'. It was an absolute disgrace, and a stain on football in general. Rarely have I seen so much time in one match taken up by things other than football. The surrounding of the referee after every decision, making a flaming throw in look like it's the most contentious decision ever made, I mean jesus bloody wept. Everyone barring Leo Messi should be ashamed of that displey. I would however, particularly like to single out four men for abuse. Those men are Dani Alves, Sergio Biscuits, Angel Di Maria and Jose Mourinho. The first three can all be lumped into a category simply titled, 'Cheating Fuckers'. Alves and Biscuits are at this stuff every week and how the opposition fail to boot the dirty, face-holding, six time's rolling over, little shits in the face is beyond me. I'm livid just typing this out. Di Maria whilst not quite as serial an offender, was on his back more than Jordan last night. Mourinho, is the worst of the lot for me. I realise it's all mid games, designed to deflect attention etc, but he truly is a despicable little prick. Trying to take any sort of moral high ground after presiding over an Inter win last year thanks to an offside goal is ridiculous in the extreme. That's before you go on to his Porto team in the UEFA Cup and Champions League successes. Never have a team before or since spent more time delaying play through cheating. I, for one, hope UEFA throw the book at him, as football might be a quieter place, but an infinitely better one for me. Music this week comes from a new favourite of mine Matchbook Romance with Stories and Alibi's.
Blackpool v Stoke, Saturday 1500
First up is the Blackpool trying to gain a rare win at home to a Stoke side with little to play for in the Prem. I have seen a steady decline in neutral support for the Seasiders, possible coinciding with people getting very bored with rent-a-quote Ian 'Olly' Holloway. I must admit, I originally liked him from a distance, but his 'zany' quips have worn very thin, and are now clearly a device to mask his sides horrendous form. They have always gotten better results away from Bloomfield Road, when teams were surprised by their commitment to attack. Now though, teams have realised if you soak it up and counter their defence, to put it politely, has been utter dogshit. Stoke may well have one eye on the FA Cup final, but even their reserves are well schooled in the up and at 'em style Pulis specialises in, and they should be far too strong for rent-a-gob's lot. Betfred are out on a limb at 2.62 on Stoke and I'd take the high trouser wearing man on with that.
Liverpool v Newcastle, Sunday 1200
Next up is Andy Carroll's first chance to play against his ex-team. Whilst taking a couple of games to find his feet, the big man with the good touch now looks at home in the Pool side. At present, he is often feeding off lumps up field from the centre backs and holding the ball up, but you would imagine King Kenny is looking at proper wingers to supply him next season. Luis Suarez has also looked a quality signing and should be one to put in the small 'transferred his ability from the Eredivisie' pile. He may not be scoring by the bucketload, but his inventiveness and flair have been a shining beacon in Pool's often boring side. And he has already picked up plenty of assists. Newcastle have looked a shadow of the side since Wor Andy moved in January. They are not the most exciting team in the absence of a real presence up front, Shola Ameobi as only proved he is anything but a Prem striker down the years. I really think we could see a hiding in this one. I would even take Pool at -1.5 asian at 2.47 at Bet365 with some confidence after last weeks 5-0 win.
Manchester City v West Ham, Sunday 1600
Another match with a team currently looking out of sorts travelling to a tough away fixture. West Ham signing 68 strikers in January initially looked like it might pay dividends with a few wins picked up, including against Liverpool, but they have been sliding again recently. The defence still looks slow and cumbersome, and with Matt Upson as the senior half it's no surprise really, and the strikers have stopped scoring. Man City have picked up a bit of form at just the right time it seems. They may well be looking forward to the FA Cup, and will rightly be fav's for it, but they all know Champions League qualification is all-important. They will not be taking this match lightly and should brush the Irons aside in a ground where they have only tasted defeat twice all season and have conceded only 11 in 16 matches. With the Hammers strikers in such poor form, I'd back Citeh to continue their impressive home form and Win To Nil. Skybet will give you a standout 2.37 on such a thing and I'd take that.
Levante v Sporting Gijon, Sunday 1600
We see two of the better post-xmas sides in La Liga going head to head in Valencia on Sunday afternoon for this one. Levante looked doomed at xmas. They've been skint for years, regularly fail to pay their players and haven't made a real money buy in at least 3 years now. Luis Garcia's appointment as manager in January has turned the side around. Before last week they had only lost to Real Madrid since 29th Jan and Atleti who beat them last week have also been much improved of late. Gijon, similarly, have been in great form this calendar year. Two losses since the end of Jan would back this up. They have laboured to most of those though, and they are generally better in front of their own very passionate fans. I'm going to take Levante to win this one , but I'm not willing to put my balls on the line for it. The best price is currently is 2.2 with Stan James if you fancy following me in? I also think Felipe Caicedo is good value to score anytime at 2.62 with Paddy Power. He has been a man reborn under Garcia and often scores.
Toulouse v Lyon, Sunday 1600
A rare tip from Ligue Un for you this week. With it being the business end of the season, and the title still very much up for grabs, we are seeing rarely seen goalfests in matches. There is 5 points between Marseille in first spot and Lyon in third, as well as PSG only 3 points behind Lyon chasing Champs Lge qualification next season. This is making teams chase victories all the way to the end of matches as well as looking to top up their goal tallys. Most games in Ligue Un are boring, tepid, low-scoring affairs, so this is a welcome change for the poor souls that watch it. Lyon and Marseille were involved in 5 goal matches midweek with Lyon sneaking a 3-2 win in the last minute through Yoann Gorcuff. Toulouse are a decent side themselves at home, but Lyon have scored 23 away from 16 matches and I would expect them to triumph, or to go down in a goal glut trying. You can pick up odds of 2.3 on Betfair on over 2,5 goals and just this once I'd advocate a sneaky punt on that.
Sivasspor v Gencerbirligi, Friday 1800
The first match in the Turkish SuperLig this weekend has Sivas hosting Genc. Sivasspor might have lost 2-1 away at Ankara last weekend, but they have been on an impressive run of form since looking relegated at xmas. Genc themselves are unbeaten in 4 matches, but have been involved in games containing over 2.5 goals in 7 of the last 9 matches. Sivas have been involved in 7 over 2.5 matches in their last 10 games too. Both teams usually nick a goal and with both needing wins to see off lingering fears of relegation we should see a few here I believe. The Turkish SuperLig is not high scoring in general so you can often find slightly improved odds on overs in goal markets if you look hard enough, and this is a good example. In the English Prem I would imagine this to be a 1.8 shot on overs, but you can pick up 1.96 with Ladbrokes. Pick it up before it goes.
Trabzonspor v Gaziantepspor, Sunday 1700
Trabzon are still in the hunt for the title, but desperately need wins with Fener now ahead on goal difference. They are both on 70 points and can ill afford to do anything but win all their remaining games, as well as score the goals to make up the deficit. Gaziantepspor have been solid at home all season, but away form has been the downfall that has seen them outside pushing on for the title. With a record of 6-3-6 away from home they are far from mugs, but they have been beaten too often. As mentioned Trabzon will be supremely motivated and Gaz have all but wrapped up qualification for the Europa League next season and can afford to drop points. I can see a relentless attack from a team that has scored 28 and only conceded 11 in 15 home games this season. Get on Trabzon -1.5 at 2.42 with Bet365 and watch the goals fly in.
Blackpool v Stoke, Saturday 1500
First up is the Blackpool trying to gain a rare win at home to a Stoke side with little to play for in the Prem. I have seen a steady decline in neutral support for the Seasiders, possible coinciding with people getting very bored with rent-a-quote Ian 'Olly' Holloway. I must admit, I originally liked him from a distance, but his 'zany' quips have worn very thin, and are now clearly a device to mask his sides horrendous form. They have always gotten better results away from Bloomfield Road, when teams were surprised by their commitment to attack. Now though, teams have realised if you soak it up and counter their defence, to put it politely, has been utter dogshit. Stoke may well have one eye on the FA Cup final, but even their reserves are well schooled in the up and at 'em style Pulis specialises in, and they should be far too strong for rent-a-gob's lot. Betfred are out on a limb at 2.62 on Stoke and I'd take the high trouser wearing man on with that.
Liverpool v Newcastle, Sunday 1200
Next up is Andy Carroll's first chance to play against his ex-team. Whilst taking a couple of games to find his feet, the big man with the good touch now looks at home in the Pool side. At present, he is often feeding off lumps up field from the centre backs and holding the ball up, but you would imagine King Kenny is looking at proper wingers to supply him next season. Luis Suarez has also looked a quality signing and should be one to put in the small 'transferred his ability from the Eredivisie' pile. He may not be scoring by the bucketload, but his inventiveness and flair have been a shining beacon in Pool's often boring side. And he has already picked up plenty of assists. Newcastle have looked a shadow of the side since Wor Andy moved in January. They are not the most exciting team in the absence of a real presence up front, Shola Ameobi as only proved he is anything but a Prem striker down the years. I really think we could see a hiding in this one. I would even take Pool at -1.5 asian at 2.47 at Bet365 with some confidence after last weeks 5-0 win.
Manchester City v West Ham, Sunday 1600
Another match with a team currently looking out of sorts travelling to a tough away fixture. West Ham signing 68 strikers in January initially looked like it might pay dividends with a few wins picked up, including against Liverpool, but they have been sliding again recently. The defence still looks slow and cumbersome, and with Matt Upson as the senior half it's no surprise really, and the strikers have stopped scoring. Man City have picked up a bit of form at just the right time it seems. They may well be looking forward to the FA Cup, and will rightly be fav's for it, but they all know Champions League qualification is all-important. They will not be taking this match lightly and should brush the Irons aside in a ground where they have only tasted defeat twice all season and have conceded only 11 in 16 matches. With the Hammers strikers in such poor form, I'd back Citeh to continue their impressive home form and Win To Nil. Skybet will give you a standout 2.37 on such a thing and I'd take that.
Levante v Sporting Gijon, Sunday 1600
We see two of the better post-xmas sides in La Liga going head to head in Valencia on Sunday afternoon for this one. Levante looked doomed at xmas. They've been skint for years, regularly fail to pay their players and haven't made a real money buy in at least 3 years now. Luis Garcia's appointment as manager in January has turned the side around. Before last week they had only lost to Real Madrid since 29th Jan and Atleti who beat them last week have also been much improved of late. Gijon, similarly, have been in great form this calendar year. Two losses since the end of Jan would back this up. They have laboured to most of those though, and they are generally better in front of their own very passionate fans. I'm going to take Levante to win this one , but I'm not willing to put my balls on the line for it. The best price is currently is 2.2 with Stan James if you fancy following me in? I also think Felipe Caicedo is good value to score anytime at 2.62 with Paddy Power. He has been a man reborn under Garcia and often scores.
Toulouse v Lyon, Sunday 1600
A rare tip from Ligue Un for you this week. With it being the business end of the season, and the title still very much up for grabs, we are seeing rarely seen goalfests in matches. There is 5 points between Marseille in first spot and Lyon in third, as well as PSG only 3 points behind Lyon chasing Champs Lge qualification next season. This is making teams chase victories all the way to the end of matches as well as looking to top up their goal tallys. Most games in Ligue Un are boring, tepid, low-scoring affairs, so this is a welcome change for the poor souls that watch it. Lyon and Marseille were involved in 5 goal matches midweek with Lyon sneaking a 3-2 win in the last minute through Yoann Gorcuff. Toulouse are a decent side themselves at home, but Lyon have scored 23 away from 16 matches and I would expect them to triumph, or to go down in a goal glut trying. You can pick up odds of 2.3 on Betfair on over 2,5 goals and just this once I'd advocate a sneaky punt on that.
Sivasspor v Gencerbirligi, Friday 1800
The first match in the Turkish SuperLig this weekend has Sivas hosting Genc. Sivasspor might have lost 2-1 away at Ankara last weekend, but they have been on an impressive run of form since looking relegated at xmas. Genc themselves are unbeaten in 4 matches, but have been involved in games containing over 2.5 goals in 7 of the last 9 matches. Sivas have been involved in 7 over 2.5 matches in their last 10 games too. Both teams usually nick a goal and with both needing wins to see off lingering fears of relegation we should see a few here I believe. The Turkish SuperLig is not high scoring in general so you can often find slightly improved odds on overs in goal markets if you look hard enough, and this is a good example. In the English Prem I would imagine this to be a 1.8 shot on overs, but you can pick up 1.96 with Ladbrokes. Pick it up before it goes.
Trabzonspor v Gaziantepspor, Sunday 1700
Trabzon are still in the hunt for the title, but desperately need wins with Fener now ahead on goal difference. They are both on 70 points and can ill afford to do anything but win all their remaining games, as well as score the goals to make up the deficit. Gaziantepspor have been solid at home all season, but away form has been the downfall that has seen them outside pushing on for the title. With a record of 6-3-6 away from home they are far from mugs, but they have been beaten too often. As mentioned Trabzon will be supremely motivated and Gaz have all but wrapped up qualification for the Europa League next season and can afford to drop points. I can see a relentless attack from a team that has scored 28 and only conceded 11 in 15 home games this season. Get on Trabzon -1.5 at 2.42 with Bet365 and watch the goals fly in.
Friday, 22 April 2011
You're sh*t and you know you are...
The title this week is sadly a reference to my own tipping 'skills' over the past couple of weeks. To say I had been dreadful would be akin to saying Arsenal make things hard for themselves, a huge understatement. I am going to try and redeem myself this week obviously, but in my defence it is now reaching the nadir of the season and it's hard to know if everyone is making the effort. This week saw both Arsenal and Spuds dropping points in their respective title and Champions League qualification campaigns. I'd like to send out my sympathies to anyone unfortunate enough to support Arsenal. Having watched them against Sunderland, Blackburn and Spurs recently I have found myself tearing my hair out and their complete inability to close a game out. I'd be an exceptionally angry man if I actually gave a sod either way about the result. Musical recommendation this fine day is for Incubus with Wish You Were Here.
Aston Villa v Stoke, Saturday 1500
Stoke winning 5-0, well fuck me sideways. The impossible happened last weekend in the FA Cup Semi Final and Stoke actually had more possession than their opponents. This had not happened since their promotion to the Prem in any match against Premier League opponents. They gave Northern neighbours Bolton an absolute shellacking and could well have gained some long overdue respect. From me as much as anyone else. Villa's mini renaissance continued with a last gasp victory away at West Ham. Ged Houllier has been taken in to hospital this week, and with his history of illness it has to be asked whether he should just call it a day. Anyway, I'm sure Villa will put in a good performance. Footballers are fickle and now the team is winning matches I'm sure they are all Ged's biggest fans again after last months revolt. With Stok now as good as safe from relegation I wouldn't expect them to exert themselves too much with the cup final to come. Back Mr Darren Bent to score anytime at an industry leading 2.1 with Coral.
Wolves v Fulham, Saturday 1500
Mark Hughes many fans in the media must be very pleased with the way Sparky has turned around Fulham's early season form. It must be said that the poor performances like the 4-1 home tonking by Citeh have mostly come with the entire strike force out injured. All this being said though, they are still a poor side away from Craven Cottage. The effort is there still, but wins have come at a rate of only 1 from 16 matches this term. This has been going on for around 3 seasons now and shows no sign of abating. Wolves have been nothing short of workhorses this term, but sadly they have lacked that bit of flair/class that would push draws into wins. They don't find goals easy to come by at all and Mick McCarthy will surely be looking to remedy that if they are in the Prem or Champ next season. Kevin Doyle is a wonderful partner for a predator, but Ebanks-Blake and Fletcher have been about as useful as a chocolate teapot for most of the season. I see this being a drab affair probably decided by a goal either way. I do see Wolves somehow getting it though. Back them at a best priced 2.6 with Victor Chandler.
Bolton v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Sunday's match has Arsenal's fading title hopes on the road at the Reebok Stadium. I've already mentioned the pathetic lack of composure that led to a collapse from 3-1 up to 3-3 and hanging on at Shite Fart Lane so I wont go into any more detail. Bolton head into this with any hope of European football now a distant memory thanks to their FA Cup exit to Stoke at Wembley on Sunday. I would imagine Owen Coyle will be telling everyone that they're 'up for it' and other inane cliches, but they'd only be human if they aren't at full speed. Now that Coyle has taken over the Trotters they are also endeavouring to play football 'the right way' too. This is a laudable thing, and has seen them climb the table and show the fans a style of football unimaginable back in the Fat Sam days. Sadly thogh, this plays into the Gooners hands somewhat. I'm sure they'll make it look difficult, they always bloody do, and they'll probably give a goal away for good measure. But, I would expect them to get the job done. They are unbeaten in 15 in the league and that's not to be sneared at. William Hill are taking them on at 1.8 and I'm happy with that.
Valencia v Real Madrid, Saturday 1700
This is an intersting match up to start the La Liga weekend. Madrid know now that they cannot possibly hope to win the league having failed to beat Barca last weekend and have bigger fish to fry in the Champions League this midweek. I would fully expect the likes of Ozil and Ronaldo to start on the bench and be fairly unlikely to make it on to the field. Mourinho is nothing if not a masterful tactician and he will want his star men fresh to once again take on Barca in the week. This should play into the hands of a Valencia side playing some fantastic stuff of late. They are on a 3 match winning steak having scored 12 goals to 2 in the process. Roberto Soldado in particularly scintillating form having netted 6 of those. With Valencia out of every other competition and looking to cement their place in next seasons Champions League they will no doubt see a win as a huge confidence boost going into the tail end of the season. They have been shortening in price for a few days so I would snap up Victor Chandlers quotes of 2.5 on the home team while they last.
Sevilla v Villarreal, Sunday 2000
The late Sunday match in La Liga has Villarreal travelling to Sevilla for another intriguing match. It is widely accepted that Villarreal are confident enough in their league position that they are putting all their eggs in a basket labelled 'Europa League'. They have a 9 point cushion over 5th place Bilbao in La Liga and can afford to rest players in the league to wait for their semi final in midweek. Expect players like Ruben Castro and Guiseppe Rossi to be on the bench. Sevilla have been a different team in the second half of the season. The arrival of Ivan Rakitic and return to form of Fredi Kanoute have seen them unbeaten at home since the xmas break. They should see off a second string Yellow Submarine. Odds of 2.0 are still widely available and I would take them before line-ups are announced.
Galatasaray v Kayserispor, Saturday 1800
This match sees two of the teams in the worst form in the SuperLig going head to head. Gala have had a really poor season and find themselves in desperate need of points to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Kayserispor were in a comfortable 4th position until they seemingly switched off around the start of March. They haven't taken a point in 6 matches and are drifting towards mid table. Gala should be able to raise themselves for this match, the motivation to avoid complete embarrassment should see to that. They have had a tough run of matches lately including the two best teams Fener and Trabzon. They won their last match 3-2 away and that should also give them a timely boost heading into this. I'd be tempted to back them with a -1.0 asian hcap at Bet265 at odds of 2.25.
Karabukspor v Sivasspor, Saturday 1300
Also this weekend we see last weeks let down Karabuk taking on Sivasspor at home. Karabuk should have won last week, they conceded goals to the only attacks Istanbul BB had. And they also failed to capitalise on the numerous attacks they had. I would imagine they would again make plenty of chances, and I'd expect them to take at least one this time out. Sivasspor have been in great form over the last 5 matches, a record of 4 wins and 1 draw is great form in anyones book. And they have been scoring plenty of goals whilst doing so, 9 in those 5 games. I would expect an end to end match here, with both teams liable to errors at the back. Coral go 2.1 on over 2.5 goals and I think there's a great chance we'll see that.
Nurnberg v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
The match of the weekend in the Bundesliga could well come from this game in my view. Mainz started the season in great form, blooding numerous youngsters and blowing teams away at times. Nurnberg were quite the opposite and really struggled to get going. However comma Nurnberg have come on strong since xmas and have risen to sit in behind Mainz in 5th position. This has been in no small part down to striker Eiger recently, having picked up 3 goals in the last 3 matches. Mainz are a very good away side so I'm loathe to lay them, a record of 9 wins from 15 away is pretty formidable. I do think Stan James have gone to far in pricing the home team at 2.25 though, so sod it, I'll take them on.
Here ends this weeks tips. Hopefully we'll start getting back on track before I'm forced to crawl away!
Aston Villa v Stoke, Saturday 1500
Stoke winning 5-0, well fuck me sideways. The impossible happened last weekend in the FA Cup Semi Final and Stoke actually had more possession than their opponents. This had not happened since their promotion to the Prem in any match against Premier League opponents. They gave Northern neighbours Bolton an absolute shellacking and could well have gained some long overdue respect. From me as much as anyone else. Villa's mini renaissance continued with a last gasp victory away at West Ham. Ged Houllier has been taken in to hospital this week, and with his history of illness it has to be asked whether he should just call it a day. Anyway, I'm sure Villa will put in a good performance. Footballers are fickle and now the team is winning matches I'm sure they are all Ged's biggest fans again after last months revolt. With Stok now as good as safe from relegation I wouldn't expect them to exert themselves too much with the cup final to come. Back Mr Darren Bent to score anytime at an industry leading 2.1 with Coral.
Wolves v Fulham, Saturday 1500
Mark Hughes many fans in the media must be very pleased with the way Sparky has turned around Fulham's early season form. It must be said that the poor performances like the 4-1 home tonking by Citeh have mostly come with the entire strike force out injured. All this being said though, they are still a poor side away from Craven Cottage. The effort is there still, but wins have come at a rate of only 1 from 16 matches this term. This has been going on for around 3 seasons now and shows no sign of abating. Wolves have been nothing short of workhorses this term, but sadly they have lacked that bit of flair/class that would push draws into wins. They don't find goals easy to come by at all and Mick McCarthy will surely be looking to remedy that if they are in the Prem or Champ next season. Kevin Doyle is a wonderful partner for a predator, but Ebanks-Blake and Fletcher have been about as useful as a chocolate teapot for most of the season. I see this being a drab affair probably decided by a goal either way. I do see Wolves somehow getting it though. Back them at a best priced 2.6 with Victor Chandler.
Bolton v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Sunday's match has Arsenal's fading title hopes on the road at the Reebok Stadium. I've already mentioned the pathetic lack of composure that led to a collapse from 3-1 up to 3-3 and hanging on at Shite Fart Lane so I wont go into any more detail. Bolton head into this with any hope of European football now a distant memory thanks to their FA Cup exit to Stoke at Wembley on Sunday. I would imagine Owen Coyle will be telling everyone that they're 'up for it' and other inane cliches, but they'd only be human if they aren't at full speed. Now that Coyle has taken over the Trotters they are also endeavouring to play football 'the right way' too. This is a laudable thing, and has seen them climb the table and show the fans a style of football unimaginable back in the Fat Sam days. Sadly thogh, this plays into the Gooners hands somewhat. I'm sure they'll make it look difficult, they always bloody do, and they'll probably give a goal away for good measure. But, I would expect them to get the job done. They are unbeaten in 15 in the league and that's not to be sneared at. William Hill are taking them on at 1.8 and I'm happy with that.
Valencia v Real Madrid, Saturday 1700
This is an intersting match up to start the La Liga weekend. Madrid know now that they cannot possibly hope to win the league having failed to beat Barca last weekend and have bigger fish to fry in the Champions League this midweek. I would fully expect the likes of Ozil and Ronaldo to start on the bench and be fairly unlikely to make it on to the field. Mourinho is nothing if not a masterful tactician and he will want his star men fresh to once again take on Barca in the week. This should play into the hands of a Valencia side playing some fantastic stuff of late. They are on a 3 match winning steak having scored 12 goals to 2 in the process. Roberto Soldado in particularly scintillating form having netted 6 of those. With Valencia out of every other competition and looking to cement their place in next seasons Champions League they will no doubt see a win as a huge confidence boost going into the tail end of the season. They have been shortening in price for a few days so I would snap up Victor Chandlers quotes of 2.5 on the home team while they last.
Sevilla v Villarreal, Sunday 2000
The late Sunday match in La Liga has Villarreal travelling to Sevilla for another intriguing match. It is widely accepted that Villarreal are confident enough in their league position that they are putting all their eggs in a basket labelled 'Europa League'. They have a 9 point cushion over 5th place Bilbao in La Liga and can afford to rest players in the league to wait for their semi final in midweek. Expect players like Ruben Castro and Guiseppe Rossi to be on the bench. Sevilla have been a different team in the second half of the season. The arrival of Ivan Rakitic and return to form of Fredi Kanoute have seen them unbeaten at home since the xmas break. They should see off a second string Yellow Submarine. Odds of 2.0 are still widely available and I would take them before line-ups are announced.
Galatasaray v Kayserispor, Saturday 1800
This match sees two of the teams in the worst form in the SuperLig going head to head. Gala have had a really poor season and find themselves in desperate need of points to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Kayserispor were in a comfortable 4th position until they seemingly switched off around the start of March. They haven't taken a point in 6 matches and are drifting towards mid table. Gala should be able to raise themselves for this match, the motivation to avoid complete embarrassment should see to that. They have had a tough run of matches lately including the two best teams Fener and Trabzon. They won their last match 3-2 away and that should also give them a timely boost heading into this. I'd be tempted to back them with a -1.0 asian hcap at Bet265 at odds of 2.25.
Karabukspor v Sivasspor, Saturday 1300
Also this weekend we see last weeks let down Karabuk taking on Sivasspor at home. Karabuk should have won last week, they conceded goals to the only attacks Istanbul BB had. And they also failed to capitalise on the numerous attacks they had. I would imagine they would again make plenty of chances, and I'd expect them to take at least one this time out. Sivasspor have been in great form over the last 5 matches, a record of 4 wins and 1 draw is great form in anyones book. And they have been scoring plenty of goals whilst doing so, 9 in those 5 games. I would expect an end to end match here, with both teams liable to errors at the back. Coral go 2.1 on over 2.5 goals and I think there's a great chance we'll see that.
Nurnberg v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
The match of the weekend in the Bundesliga could well come from this game in my view. Mainz started the season in great form, blooding numerous youngsters and blowing teams away at times. Nurnberg were quite the opposite and really struggled to get going. However comma Nurnberg have come on strong since xmas and have risen to sit in behind Mainz in 5th position. This has been in no small part down to striker Eiger recently, having picked up 3 goals in the last 3 matches. Mainz are a very good away side so I'm loathe to lay them, a record of 9 wins from 15 away is pretty formidable. I do think Stan James have gone to far in pricing the home team at 2.25 though, so sod it, I'll take them on.
Here ends this weeks tips. Hopefully we'll start getting back on track before I'm forced to crawl away!
Friday, 15 April 2011
£87? For that? Sod off...
The title is a not so subtle reference to Chelsea's announcement that they plan to price even more 'normal' people out of the match going experience next season. This is particularly relevant to me as last weekend I had the 'pleasure' of a trip to Stamford Bridge. I've been to Old Trafford once before and hadn't visited a Premier League ground again since due to the complete lack of anything approaching an atmosphere at that match. Now, the pre-match pub with all the 'top boys' was cracking, but from there on in it was unbelievably diluted. I have never seen so many posh boys heading to a match before. Chino's as far as the eye could see. Once inside the view from the West Stand was superb, but not once did I here a particularly loud song being sung. This was a tad unfair as Wigan had only brought around 60 fans so there wasn't much for the fans to work with admittedly. All this is leading me to tell everyone to just boycott anywhere pushing prices like this and go support your local lower league team. You will be appreciated, the atmosphere will be at least 10 times better and the people will be able to actually hold a conversation about the sport they're watching. Music comes this week from new favourites Two Gallants with the storming Steady Rollin. An absolute humdinger of a tune!
West Brom v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
In the spirit of Chelsea being a soulless place, the team was almost as bad on both Saturday and Tuesday. The midfield is plainly not working at the moment. Lampard is not my favourite player, but if you aren't going to let him hover around the box the whole match, then don't bother with him. He isn't going to get up and down and his passing isn't good enough. Similarly Michael Essien is being restricted in a midfield 4 and looks a shadow of the monster he was 2 years ago. And Torres needs the summer break to try and recapture some sharpness and confidence. The rest of the team were laying chances on a plate for the last 10 minutes of the Wigan match and he somehow contrived to fluff the lot. West Brom have become very hard to beat under Woy Hodgson and have also had the returning Peter Odemwingie adding some unpredictability and goals to the side. He has been a revelation this season, settling in quickly and troubling every defence he has played against. Having seen Chelsea's season ended by Man Utd midweek I would expect them to simply go through the motions, and that wont be enough for me to beat this reinvigorated WBA side. Take WBA and the Draw on Double Chance at 2.2 with Betfred before it settles around 2.0 on matchday.
Arsenal v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
The big match of the weekend in the Prem sees Pool travelling to another soulless identikit stadium to play Arselol. See what I did there? Pool were actually very impressive in beating Citeh on Monday night, and Andy Carroll in particular. He absolutely bested the usually solid Citeh defence, and Joleon Lescott can surely now be gotten rid of in the summer if the Blues have any ambitions of challenging for the title next year. Arsenal took on Blackpool last time out and finally got a win for the first time since Orient in the FA Cup. Even then they were doing their level best to give Blackpool the chances to get back in the game. The problem for me is that they need some back up to Alex Song. He has developed into a fine defensive midfielder, but there is noone else at the club in his mould and they are lightweight in his absence or if he isn't in form. I see Carroll terrorising this Arsenal defence all afternoon, his physical presence is the sort of thing they hate and those 2 goals will have his confidence at a high point. Back him to find the old onion bag at a top priced 3.5 with Stan James.
Real Sociedad v Sporting Gijon, Sunday 1600
My pick from Spain this week sees current form team Gijon travelling to fairly hopeless Sociedad. A good run before xmas has Sociedad in the relative safety of mid table for now, but they haven't won in 7 matches and have looked like they're on their summer holidays for most of that run. They need to turn it round, but look completely at a loss for how to do it. Manuel Preciado gained some revenge over Jose Mourinho a couple of weeks back in breaking his amazing 9 year unbeaten home record. Particularly satisfying as Mourinho had criticised Gijon's performance against Barca earlier in the season and Preciado was less than amused. Anyway Gijon should give Sociedad a good fight as ever and I can see them coming away with at leat 1 point if not 3. Stan James will still give you 1.8 on Gijon and the Draw Double Chance and I'd be on that like a tramp on chips.
Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen, Sunday 1430
To Germany now with Hollywood FC taking on in form Leverkusen. It had been widely assumed that Borussia Dortmund had wrapped the title up about a month ago, but Leverkusen's imperious form has seen them cut the gap to 5 points and made people slightly rethink those opinions. Whilst Dortmund probably have done enough to hold on until seasons end, Bayer have certainly made them work for it. Munich dispensed with Van Gaal just recently after a poor season has them scrapping for even qualifying for next seasons Champions League. A grave situation for a club that considers itself amongst the best in the world. The squad has looked stagnant at times and many players have spoken out suggesting dressing room unrest is also an issue. And these things wont be solved overnight. For that reason I think they are worth opposing this week. The odds have been as long as I've ever seen on a match with Bayern at home, but you can still get 1.88 on Leverkusen and the Draw Double Chance at Bodog and I'd suggest doing that very thing.
Karabukspor v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1400
My first tip from the SuperLig this week has homers Karabuk taking on overachievers Istanbul BB. Istanbul have been above superpowers Besikltas and Galatasaray for most of a very impressive season, but have begun to look jaded in recent weeks. They don't score many and have relied on a tight defence to rise up the table and the toll is beginning to tell on a small squad. They were always better at home, but lost to lowly Sivasspor last weekend when hosting, and looked very lacklustre in doing so. Karabuk similarly have also been excellent at home, picking up 8 wins from 13 games and scoring 26 goals in the process. This sort of form and BB's tiredness mean I'm happy to be with the home side on this. Take the 2.16 available at Betfair before it goes below 2.0 tomorrow.
Antalyaspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1500
Next up is another team looking like they've given everything already this season in Eskisehirspor. They have been as impressive as Istanbul BB this season in climbing up as high as 4th position before fading to 7th just recently. They look like a Europa League place is beyond them now and have all but thrown in the towel. They have only won 4 from 14 away from home all season, and like many teams in Turkey have relied on home form to propel them up the table. Antalyaspor are comfortable in mid table obscurity, and similarly to BB have found goals hard to come by at times. They have won 5 from 14 at home, but only scored a paltry 15 goals in doing it. However, the last 2 matches have seen them hand out a 3-0 thrashing to Gala and also a thrilling away 3-2 win against Bursaspor that has ended their title hopes. This sudden burst of form and confidence should be enough to see off the higher placed Eski. Take Billy Hills 2.5 on the home win and thank me come Sunday tea time.
Manisaspor v Galatasaray, Monday 1800
Last up is Gala's trip to Manis on Monday evening. I've made a tidy little sum opposing them away from home this season and I see that run continuing on Monday. They looked particularly hopeless against Antalyaspor a couple of weeks ago and weren't much better in losing to Trabzon at home last weekend. There will never be a better time to play the fading giants and Manis have a fantastic opportunity to pick up 3 points. Gala don't do draws, only 3 from 28 matches this season, and Manis should add to their 5 home wins. They haven't won at home since late January, but at the prices I'm willing to punt on them finally doing so. They are still around 2.76 on Betfair and I would fully expect that to settle at more like 2.5 over the weekend so get on board now!
West Brom v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
In the spirit of Chelsea being a soulless place, the team was almost as bad on both Saturday and Tuesday. The midfield is plainly not working at the moment. Lampard is not my favourite player, but if you aren't going to let him hover around the box the whole match, then don't bother with him. He isn't going to get up and down and his passing isn't good enough. Similarly Michael Essien is being restricted in a midfield 4 and looks a shadow of the monster he was 2 years ago. And Torres needs the summer break to try and recapture some sharpness and confidence. The rest of the team were laying chances on a plate for the last 10 minutes of the Wigan match and he somehow contrived to fluff the lot. West Brom have become very hard to beat under Woy Hodgson and have also had the returning Peter Odemwingie adding some unpredictability and goals to the side. He has been a revelation this season, settling in quickly and troubling every defence he has played against. Having seen Chelsea's season ended by Man Utd midweek I would expect them to simply go through the motions, and that wont be enough for me to beat this reinvigorated WBA side. Take WBA and the Draw on Double Chance at 2.2 with Betfred before it settles around 2.0 on matchday.
Arsenal v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
The big match of the weekend in the Prem sees Pool travelling to another soulless identikit stadium to play Arselol. See what I did there? Pool were actually very impressive in beating Citeh on Monday night, and Andy Carroll in particular. He absolutely bested the usually solid Citeh defence, and Joleon Lescott can surely now be gotten rid of in the summer if the Blues have any ambitions of challenging for the title next year. Arsenal took on Blackpool last time out and finally got a win for the first time since Orient in the FA Cup. Even then they were doing their level best to give Blackpool the chances to get back in the game. The problem for me is that they need some back up to Alex Song. He has developed into a fine defensive midfielder, but there is noone else at the club in his mould and they are lightweight in his absence or if he isn't in form. I see Carroll terrorising this Arsenal defence all afternoon, his physical presence is the sort of thing they hate and those 2 goals will have his confidence at a high point. Back him to find the old onion bag at a top priced 3.5 with Stan James.
Real Sociedad v Sporting Gijon, Sunday 1600
My pick from Spain this week sees current form team Gijon travelling to fairly hopeless Sociedad. A good run before xmas has Sociedad in the relative safety of mid table for now, but they haven't won in 7 matches and have looked like they're on their summer holidays for most of that run. They need to turn it round, but look completely at a loss for how to do it. Manuel Preciado gained some revenge over Jose Mourinho a couple of weeks back in breaking his amazing 9 year unbeaten home record. Particularly satisfying as Mourinho had criticised Gijon's performance against Barca earlier in the season and Preciado was less than amused. Anyway Gijon should give Sociedad a good fight as ever and I can see them coming away with at leat 1 point if not 3. Stan James will still give you 1.8 on Gijon and the Draw Double Chance and I'd be on that like a tramp on chips.
Bayern Munich v Bayer Leverkusen, Sunday 1430
To Germany now with Hollywood FC taking on in form Leverkusen. It had been widely assumed that Borussia Dortmund had wrapped the title up about a month ago, but Leverkusen's imperious form has seen them cut the gap to 5 points and made people slightly rethink those opinions. Whilst Dortmund probably have done enough to hold on until seasons end, Bayer have certainly made them work for it. Munich dispensed with Van Gaal just recently after a poor season has them scrapping for even qualifying for next seasons Champions League. A grave situation for a club that considers itself amongst the best in the world. The squad has looked stagnant at times and many players have spoken out suggesting dressing room unrest is also an issue. And these things wont be solved overnight. For that reason I think they are worth opposing this week. The odds have been as long as I've ever seen on a match with Bayern at home, but you can still get 1.88 on Leverkusen and the Draw Double Chance at Bodog and I'd suggest doing that very thing.
Karabukspor v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1400
My first tip from the SuperLig this week has homers Karabuk taking on overachievers Istanbul BB. Istanbul have been above superpowers Besikltas and Galatasaray for most of a very impressive season, but have begun to look jaded in recent weeks. They don't score many and have relied on a tight defence to rise up the table and the toll is beginning to tell on a small squad. They were always better at home, but lost to lowly Sivasspor last weekend when hosting, and looked very lacklustre in doing so. Karabuk similarly have also been excellent at home, picking up 8 wins from 13 games and scoring 26 goals in the process. This sort of form and BB's tiredness mean I'm happy to be with the home side on this. Take the 2.16 available at Betfair before it goes below 2.0 tomorrow.
Antalyaspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1500
Next up is another team looking like they've given everything already this season in Eskisehirspor. They have been as impressive as Istanbul BB this season in climbing up as high as 4th position before fading to 7th just recently. They look like a Europa League place is beyond them now and have all but thrown in the towel. They have only won 4 from 14 away from home all season, and like many teams in Turkey have relied on home form to propel them up the table. Antalyaspor are comfortable in mid table obscurity, and similarly to BB have found goals hard to come by at times. They have won 5 from 14 at home, but only scored a paltry 15 goals in doing it. However, the last 2 matches have seen them hand out a 3-0 thrashing to Gala and also a thrilling away 3-2 win against Bursaspor that has ended their title hopes. This sudden burst of form and confidence should be enough to see off the higher placed Eski. Take Billy Hills 2.5 on the home win and thank me come Sunday tea time.
Manisaspor v Galatasaray, Monday 1800
Last up is Gala's trip to Manis on Monday evening. I've made a tidy little sum opposing them away from home this season and I see that run continuing on Monday. They looked particularly hopeless against Antalyaspor a couple of weeks ago and weren't much better in losing to Trabzon at home last weekend. There will never be a better time to play the fading giants and Manis have a fantastic opportunity to pick up 3 points. Gala don't do draws, only 3 from 28 matches this season, and Manis should add to their 5 home wins. They haven't won at home since late January, but at the prices I'm willing to punt on them finally doing so. They are still around 2.76 on Betfair and I would fully expect that to settle at more like 2.5 over the weekend so get on board now!
Thursday, 7 April 2011
Back to more mundane matters...
As the title suggests, I don't think we'll be witnessing any repeats of the midweek crackers we've seen from the UEFA competitions. This is obviously not including the borefest between In-Ger-Lund's representatives Chelsea and Man Utd on Wednesday. A horrific game brightened up by a really cracking goal from United. A cross field ball from the usually dreadful Carrick to Giggs then a great cross and finish applied by Wayne of Rooney. Speaking of everyone's favourite potato-headed neanderthal, he has picked up his ban for elbowing James McCarthy this week. At least, I assume that's what it's for or we're about to see players picking up suspensions for swearing in view of the camera in every match. The FA have once again proved their incompetence with this one and how they're staying in their jobs is a question for another time, they constantly fail miserably and still pick up their pay cheques. We have also seem Tottenham finally meeting a European power, and getting their arses handed to them. I can only assume I missed the bit where Redknapp's wonderful attacking talent overpowered Real. They were absolutely insipid, and the fact they've scored bugger all this year and bought crocked players has come back to haunt them. Music comes from the Blakroc album with ODB, Ludacris and Black Keys with the stamping Coochie.
Wolves v Everton, Saturday 1245
The Premier League weekend starts with Everton's injury ravaged squad travelling to Molineux. Professional Yorkshireman Mick McCarthy has assembled a team of battlers, who are a decent forward away from a mid-table outfit. The defence is no-nonsense and the midfield hard, with good wingers like recent England call-up Matt Jarvis and Michael Kightly. If there were someone prolific to partner the unselfish Kevin Doyle then they'd have turned plenty of narrow losses into draws and draws into wins. Everton have struggled all season, but have put enough wins on the board to not have to worry about relegation. I've mentioned before how I think David Moyes has lost the drive to take this stagnant team apart and build a new one. This summer will be the measure of that, as major changes are needed. Back to the betting and I think Wolves are good value here, Everton's injuries making them even more so. Back them at 2.62 with many firms putting that price up.
Tottenham v Stoke, Saturday 1500
My second tips comes from the weeks biggest losers Spurs. As predicted the tie is as good as over already and Harry Redknapp's stock is about to fall like a stone. Their league form has faltered to the point where re-qualification for the Champions League looks like a very long shot. He is also finally up on charges of taking bungs in the summer in one of the more open secrets in the game. The amount of shitty players the man has bought from dodgy areas like Africa and Eastern Europe leads me to think there may well be something in this. They have been dubbed 'The Entertainers' by the cheerleaders Sloppy Chops has in the media, regardless of the fact only 3 teams have scored less goals at home this season. The reason they are entertaining is only Rafa VDV and their horrendous defence. Stoke's non-football has again moved them well clear of relegation for the moment and most teams have still yet to figure out how to counter their physical game. They will play the same way they always play and I think Spurs will struggle with it. The Spurs defence is still injury hit and I would imagine any key players with a slight knock will be rested in the forlorn hope they can turn the Real match around. Steam in to the Draw and Stoke in Double Chance at 2.2 with Coral, it should be 2.0 for me.
Aston Villa v Newcastle, Sunday 1600
Last tip from the Premier League for this weekend comes from Villa Park on Sunday afternoon. Having been absolutely hopeless since Ged Houllier took over Villa looked like they got some bite back last weekend. They may not have beaten Everton, but the effort and application that has been missing was in evidence. And, of course, Darren Bent scored. The man always scores. Having had a mutiny stopped in it's tracks by Villa chairman Randy Lerner it looks like the players have tried to keep Villa away from The Championship in case their shit performances mean they all go down with the team. Newcastle have also not been great since the sale of talisman Andy Carroll. The rest of their strikers are Championship standard and not suprisingly they have struggled for goals. Joey Barton has again opened his mouth on the In-Ger-Lund team this week to L'Equipe and it makes good reading, especially his criticism of 'teachers pet' Gareth Barry. The problem is when Joey claims to be easily the best English midfielder, whilst he might have an outside claim, it's miles from a cast iron certainty. I see goals, goals, goals in this one. Bet365 go 1.95 on Over 2.5 goals and I think we'll see that.
Hercules v Espanyol, Sunday 1600
A match up from Spain provides the next source of increased income. Hercules had been worryingly poor since xmas and the dropping of star man Royston Drenthe. His displays on the left wing had lit up the team the first half of the season before he was dropped for daring to complain about not being paid. He was reinstated to the side last weekend and they impressed in winning. With young Royston probably the star man. Espanyol's home form has been great all season ,and is a big reason why they have stayed comfortably in the top half of the table, but their away form hasn't matched it. They have also been looking a bit jaded of late and that gives me a bit of confidence to back the home side here. Coral are again biggest price at 2.2 and I'd expect that to have gone by kick-off so get on now.
Eskisehirspor v Fenerbahce, Saturday 1700
First tip from Turkey this week has Fener travelling to Eski. Eski have been very good at hoem and have risen as high as 6th in the table off the back of that fact. Fener have been around the peak of the table most of the season, but have lost 4 away from home and only drawn once. Both sides are in very good form and are regularly outplaying the opposition. I see it as quite close to call and don't agree with the prices available at all. Most bookmakers seem to have priced it up with the name Fenerbahce in mind and not taken into account Eskisehirspor's impressive home performances. I think this gives an opportunity to have a poke at the home side. Prices are falling at the moment, but 4.3 is still available on the home win and I think it's worth a gamble at that price.
Istanbul BB v Sivasspor, Sunday 1200
An early kick off on Sunday has a favourite of mine Istanbul BB taking on Sivasspor. Siva had signed players like Darius Vassell over the summer and looked serious, but a lack of money saw the team in disarray soon enough and players leaving the club having not been paid for months. Their form has improved marginally just lately with the players left gelling some more after playing time together. But, Istanbul have been very good at home and have hovered around the top 6 all season on the basis of that. They won 2-1 at home last week, sadly they don't score enough to make it comfortable for backers. They should have more than enough for Sivasspor though so match prices of 2.6 at Bet365 look very appealing to me and will surely be more like 2.4 come kick off.
Galatasaray v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
Possibly the most well known Turkish team out side of Turkey is Gala. They had some great European campaigns on the not so distant past, playing the likes of Arsenal and Man Utd. But, they have fallen on hard times lately. Money hasn't been available the way it has been to city rivals Fener and it has shown in performances this season. They currently reside in lower mid-table obscurity and are coming in from a humiliating 3-0 loss last weekend. They have been beaten by lesser lights home and away all year. Trabzonspor have traditionally lived in the shadows of Istanbul's big 2 of Gala and Fener, and now upstarts Bursaspor have come on the scene. This season has seen something of a renaissance for them though, with them sitting atop the SuperLig for most of the season so far, and still hanging on desperate to pull away from chasing Fenerbahce. They are better than Gala, and should be able to get the job done. I think they'd be around 2.0 in England so I think the 2.2 at Betfair should be snapped up before it goes back to the 2.0 it should really be.
Wolves v Everton, Saturday 1245
The Premier League weekend starts with Everton's injury ravaged squad travelling to Molineux. Professional Yorkshireman Mick McCarthy has assembled a team of battlers, who are a decent forward away from a mid-table outfit. The defence is no-nonsense and the midfield hard, with good wingers like recent England call-up Matt Jarvis and Michael Kightly. If there were someone prolific to partner the unselfish Kevin Doyle then they'd have turned plenty of narrow losses into draws and draws into wins. Everton have struggled all season, but have put enough wins on the board to not have to worry about relegation. I've mentioned before how I think David Moyes has lost the drive to take this stagnant team apart and build a new one. This summer will be the measure of that, as major changes are needed. Back to the betting and I think Wolves are good value here, Everton's injuries making them even more so. Back them at 2.62 with many firms putting that price up.
Tottenham v Stoke, Saturday 1500
My second tips comes from the weeks biggest losers Spurs. As predicted the tie is as good as over already and Harry Redknapp's stock is about to fall like a stone. Their league form has faltered to the point where re-qualification for the Champions League looks like a very long shot. He is also finally up on charges of taking bungs in the summer in one of the more open secrets in the game. The amount of shitty players the man has bought from dodgy areas like Africa and Eastern Europe leads me to think there may well be something in this. They have been dubbed 'The Entertainers' by the cheerleaders Sloppy Chops has in the media, regardless of the fact only 3 teams have scored less goals at home this season. The reason they are entertaining is only Rafa VDV and their horrendous defence. Stoke's non-football has again moved them well clear of relegation for the moment and most teams have still yet to figure out how to counter their physical game. They will play the same way they always play and I think Spurs will struggle with it. The Spurs defence is still injury hit and I would imagine any key players with a slight knock will be rested in the forlorn hope they can turn the Real match around. Steam in to the Draw and Stoke in Double Chance at 2.2 with Coral, it should be 2.0 for me.
Aston Villa v Newcastle, Sunday 1600
Last tip from the Premier League for this weekend comes from Villa Park on Sunday afternoon. Having been absolutely hopeless since Ged Houllier took over Villa looked like they got some bite back last weekend. They may not have beaten Everton, but the effort and application that has been missing was in evidence. And, of course, Darren Bent scored. The man always scores. Having had a mutiny stopped in it's tracks by Villa chairman Randy Lerner it looks like the players have tried to keep Villa away from The Championship in case their shit performances mean they all go down with the team. Newcastle have also not been great since the sale of talisman Andy Carroll. The rest of their strikers are Championship standard and not suprisingly they have struggled for goals. Joey Barton has again opened his mouth on the In-Ger-Lund team this week to L'Equipe and it makes good reading, especially his criticism of 'teachers pet' Gareth Barry. The problem is when Joey claims to be easily the best English midfielder, whilst he might have an outside claim, it's miles from a cast iron certainty. I see goals, goals, goals in this one. Bet365 go 1.95 on Over 2.5 goals and I think we'll see that.
Hercules v Espanyol, Sunday 1600
A match up from Spain provides the next source of increased income. Hercules had been worryingly poor since xmas and the dropping of star man Royston Drenthe. His displays on the left wing had lit up the team the first half of the season before he was dropped for daring to complain about not being paid. He was reinstated to the side last weekend and they impressed in winning. With young Royston probably the star man. Espanyol's home form has been great all season ,and is a big reason why they have stayed comfortably in the top half of the table, but their away form hasn't matched it. They have also been looking a bit jaded of late and that gives me a bit of confidence to back the home side here. Coral are again biggest price at 2.2 and I'd expect that to have gone by kick-off so get on now.
Eskisehirspor v Fenerbahce, Saturday 1700
First tip from Turkey this week has Fener travelling to Eski. Eski have been very good at hoem and have risen as high as 6th in the table off the back of that fact. Fener have been around the peak of the table most of the season, but have lost 4 away from home and only drawn once. Both sides are in very good form and are regularly outplaying the opposition. I see it as quite close to call and don't agree with the prices available at all. Most bookmakers seem to have priced it up with the name Fenerbahce in mind and not taken into account Eskisehirspor's impressive home performances. I think this gives an opportunity to have a poke at the home side. Prices are falling at the moment, but 4.3 is still available on the home win and I think it's worth a gamble at that price.
Istanbul BB v Sivasspor, Sunday 1200
An early kick off on Sunday has a favourite of mine Istanbul BB taking on Sivasspor. Siva had signed players like Darius Vassell over the summer and looked serious, but a lack of money saw the team in disarray soon enough and players leaving the club having not been paid for months. Their form has improved marginally just lately with the players left gelling some more after playing time together. But, Istanbul have been very good at home and have hovered around the top 6 all season on the basis of that. They won 2-1 at home last week, sadly they don't score enough to make it comfortable for backers. They should have more than enough for Sivasspor though so match prices of 2.6 at Bet365 look very appealing to me and will surely be more like 2.4 come kick off.
Galatasaray v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
Possibly the most well known Turkish team out side of Turkey is Gala. They had some great European campaigns on the not so distant past, playing the likes of Arsenal and Man Utd. But, they have fallen on hard times lately. Money hasn't been available the way it has been to city rivals Fener and it has shown in performances this season. They currently reside in lower mid-table obscurity and are coming in from a humiliating 3-0 loss last weekend. They have been beaten by lesser lights home and away all year. Trabzonspor have traditionally lived in the shadows of Istanbul's big 2 of Gala and Fener, and now upstarts Bursaspor have come on the scene. This season has seen something of a renaissance for them though, with them sitting atop the SuperLig for most of the season so far, and still hanging on desperate to pull away from chasing Fenerbahce. They are better than Gala, and should be able to get the job done. I think they'd be around 2.0 in England so I think the 2.2 at Betfair should be snapped up before it goes back to the 2.0 it should really be.
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