Now if we discount my rather lacklustre attempt at tipping international matches two weeks ago, and I am keen to do just that, I am two blogs in a row in profit. I will add that I would only ever present my domestic league tips as the ones to seriously invest in as I do find international football very haphazard outside of the major tournaments themselves. So I will be looking to make it three in a row this week and hopefully make us all some extra mid-month cash.
This week saw the return of the 'Champions' League and all it's wondrousness. It also should serve as a reality check to all those saying that the Manchester clubs were ready to conquer all before them seeing as they both failed to win. I take particular issue with the assertion Man Utd are some sort of super team ready to start a new era of dominance. Put simply I think they have improved their midfield from abject to above average and by using Giggs more sparingly and without Scholes the play is bound to be quicker. They are better, but they're a little way away from Barcelona still. City look less than brilliant any time Nigel De Jong is out of the side. For all their undoubted talents there is noone who can fill the massive hole he leaves in the side when not around, the same can be said for Holland incidentally. Enough of that, let's get betting...
Music this week is an old favourite and it's Lit with Miserable.
Swansea v West Brom, Saturday 1500
Swansea will take comfort from the fact they were only beaten by a single fortunate goal by Arsenal last weekend, but it should not disguise the fact they once again looked thoroughly toothless up front. I thought they stood a chance of staying up as they do play good stuff at times and have plenty of willing in midfield, but Danny Graham looks hopelessly out of his depth at the top level. If their current form continues then they are going to be all but down by christmas. West Brom managed to wrestle a win from Norwich at Carrow Road last week in all senses of the term. Rarely will you see such a display of the dark arts of defending so often in one match, shirt pulling, barging, and a smack in the mouth for James Vaughan just some of the things that went on. Roy Hodgson is not generally associated with this side of the game, but he does set his defences up well and they should be able to cope with the blunt attack Swansea offer. With Peter Odemwingie up front too, I would fancy them to nick a goal. Back West Brom at 2.87 with Stan James.
Man Utd v Chelsea, Sunday 1600
The biggest match of the weekend sees Andres Villas Boas take his Chelsea side to Old Trafford to take on the latest 'bestest team ever' that Fergie has produced. I have already made my feelings known on that point so I wont go over that again. All being said though, they are a cut above all but neighbours City in the Premier League for me. And although they were held and generally outplayed by Benfica on Tuesday night, they rested players specifically for this match. Wayne Rooney has started the season with a smile on his face generally and with Javier Hernandez also returning I think Chelsea will be worried. Chelsea's problems are well documented and have been apparent for all to see for a couple of seasons now. Namely, they are getting very old all together and the younger players are not of sufficient quality to step up. Daniel Sturridge being the exception to that statement as he really does impress me every time I see him. With Didier Drogba still injured we will likely see the forlorn figure of Fernando Torres starting the match and still looking for his second Chelsea goal as he approaches 30 matches for the blues. He looks shot to me and a man who no longer trusts his body to do what it used to, a great shame. All this is leading to me believing United are good things at a shade below evens. Back Man Utd at 1.9 on Betfair.
Real Zaragoza v Espanyol, Sunday 1500
Off to Spain now and it's Barcelona's second side travelling to Zaragoza. A lot of people, me included, predicted a season of struggle for Espanyol and I see no reason to change that opinion. They sold there best player by a long way in Pablo Osvaldo to Roma in the summer and without his goals they should really struggle to pick up points. Zaragoza have so far only managed a measly draw from their two matches, but did face Real Madrid in the opener so that can be scrubbed off really. Spain's big two again look likely to dominate proceedings and make a mockery of any attempts to portray the league as a contest. Zaragoza looked better in their second match away to newly promoted Rayo and escaped with a scoreless drawer. I think they'll follow up that positive result by beating Espanyol. Back Zaragoza at 2.25 at Stan James.
Inter Milan v Roma, Saturday 1945
The biggest match of the weekend in Italy sees the thoroughly new look Roma under new management at all levels travelling to the San Siro to take on a faltering Inter side. New managers at both clubs will both of been hoping for quick starts, but sadly neither have gotten them. Gasperini at Inter has come in with his new 3-4-3 system and tried to shoehorn players into it een though it is completely alien and fails to make the most of talents such as Diego Forlan and Wesley Sneijder. The whole team looks disjointed, confused and generally a bit poor so far. Roma would have seen a home start against Cagliari as a very winnable match and one to build confidence from. Sadly for them they got beaten 2-1. I still think they will come good in trying to play more of a Spanish style in Italy, but understandably it may take time for all the new players to gel as a team. This game could be a dull 0-0 if both sides are happy not to get beaten again, or an absolute thriller if either decides to go guns blazing. I would back Roma and the Draw in Double Chance at 2.0 with Paddy Power and hope Inter's poor start continues.
Udinese v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
Last seasons slow starting dark horses Udinese host Fiorentina in an appetising clash on Sunday afternoon. The men from Florence are now a long way from the glory days of the nineties, but are a fairly solid upper mid-table side who are tought o beat at home. Udinese have always been a club to bring cheap players in young and then ship them out for huge profits before repeating the cycle. This summer was no different with them losing Alexis Sanchez to Barcelona. This has led to them being written off as a team in transition, but that does a great disservice to their recent history. They still have the evergreen Antonio Di Natale scoring the goals and a host of promising young players from around the globe. They opened with an impressive away win at Lecce with Di Natale already opening his account for the season. I think Udinese are great value this weekend. Back them at 2.2 with William Hill before the price goes.
Hamburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Saturday 1430
Monchengladbach are my current team to follow as they have opened their season impressively in the Bundesliga and have made me a decent little profit so far. This week they take on the one team in that league I currently wouldn't touch with free money, Hamburg. Since appointing former Chelsea Sporting Director Frank Arnesen over the summer he has taken it upon himself to purchase all the utter dross from Chelsea's youth sides under him. Players like Michael Mancienne and Jeffrey Brum have no place in a top European division and it is no surprise to me to see Hamburg already struggling horribly. They lie bottom of the table with one solitary point from five matches. I don't see their form improving any time soon as they simply don't have the players to compete. I would back Monchengladbach Draw No Bet with 2.1 widely available.
Orduspor v Manisaspor, Saturday 1800
First Turkish tip this weekend is again to be looked at as the league is only one match old so it is very early to be drawing conclusions. But, after last weeks successful laying of Besiktas paying dividends, I have somewhat grown in confidence enought o include two tips from the Super Lig. First up is newly promoted Orduspor hosting Manisaspor. Orduspor managed to limit a still very decent Fenerbahce side to only a 1-0 loss on Monday night and will have taken a lot of encouragement from that result. Manisaspor opened with a home draw against an also very good Trabzonspor side who went on to beat Inter midweek in the Champions League. More than a lot of leagues, Turkey seems to be very much a home win country. Most sides away from the big 4 or 5 tend to rely on good home form to keep them safe from harm and those that go down tend to do so because their home form has not held up. For this reason I'm going to get behind the newly promoted side. Back Orduspor at 2.4 with Stan James.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1530
I think we may well see goals, goals, goals in this match. Sivasspor follow many Turkish sides in having a truly abysmal defence and let in as many as they score during the course of a season. Eskisehirspor were actually a tight side last season, winning many matches by just the odd goal, and it pushed them towards European qualification. They have tried to improve on their meagre goals for column by drafting in Kris Boyd to see if his prolific talents from anywhere with 4 yards of goal can add another element to their game. They also heavily relied on home form last season and were relatively average away. I think this new, more cavalier approach may see them leaking a few more, especially away from home. Sivasspor are the sort of team to attack at all costs so I think getting behind overs is the way forward. Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.2 with Paddy Power.
Friday, 16 September 2011
Friday, 9 September 2011
Back to more interesting matters...
Well, thank christ that's all over. I hate international football when it isn't the tournament itself. In Europe it is particularly boring where there is such a huge chasm between some teams it is literally like men against boys at times. Why San Marino, Andorra and the like are allowed anywhere near proper football at this level is beyond me. But, as I said, thankfully the leagues all around Europe are back starting today so at least that's something.
Now normally I like to think I have a bit of an edge on the Turkish football as I spend quite a lot of time researching it and I doubt very much whether most bookmakers do. However, this weekend I may put a couple of matches up, but it is the first round of matches so it will be hard to pick with much certainty for a couple of weeks yet. This season in particular should be very interesting in the Super Lig as Fenerbahce are still coming to terms with the scandal around match fixing that engulfed them over the summer. They have mostly sold players with very little being added to the squad. Galatasasray reacted to their own poor season last time by signing all manner of players and are definitely the team to watch for me.
Musical recommendation this week is Osker with Strangled. I'm not sure if many, if any, of you actually enjoy this bit of the blog, but the album Idle Will Kill that this track comes from is fantastic.
Wolves v Tottenham, Saturday 1500
First pick this week comes from a game with two teams whose starts to the season have been very contrasting. Wolves had been something of a yo-yo club before they came up in 2009 under Mick McCarthy and Mick himself had a reputation as being a good manager, but not up to top level standards. But here we are in 2011 and Wolves are still here, and they have started the season looking very good. They will probably still find a European push too much, but they have built a decent squad and should comfortably avoid a relegation fight. The signing of Roger Johnson looks a very good one. The Birmingham defence was generally pretty sound and he was recognised as the better part of it. At Spurs Redknapp's stock continues to fall as the men for White Hart Lane look further away than ever from re-entering the Champions League. Nowhere is this more profoundly seen than with Man City viewing them as so little competition as to loan them Emanuel Adebayor. I'm sure Harry would cry his little eyes out at his 'tiny' squad and few additions, but if you examine his transfers into the club far too many have already been shipped out at a loss. At this stage of the season I think you've got to take them on. Back Wolves at a huge 3.12 with Victor Chandler.
Fulham v Blackburn, Sunday 1600
The afternoon match on Sunday brings my second tip for this weekend. Blackburn are making the trip down to Craven Cottage still looking for a point. They have looked truly hopeless so far and I am looking at the 4.5 I took on them being relegated as being nailed on already. Deadline day saw them finally sign some players, but whether they will be anything like enough to stop the rot is very dubious. The standout names are Scott Dann and Yakubu. Dann was injured for a lot of last season and centre half was not really where the problems lay so whilst I think he's a good player, I don't see that saving them at all. The Yak is an interesting one, he was a cracking player whilst at Portsmouth, but has struggled with 'fitness' issues for most of his time at Everton. He still looks a very large boy and it could take some time for him to bed in, if he does at all. Fulham have only got a solitary point so far as Martin Jol tries to shape the side how he would like. They have lost both away games, but for Fulham that isn't exactly a new story. As ever their problem has layed in scoring goals, with Clint Dempsey stepping up to be the new Tim Cahill and bringing most of their threat from midfield. The addition of Bryan Ruiz from Twente should add the creativity they have badly missed in the last couple of seasons as Danny Murphy's influence wanes. Back Fulham -1.0 asian at 2.25 with Paddy Power.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Kaiserslautern, Saturday 1430
I will avoid Italy's Serie A this weekend as it is the first matches and I'm keen to see how Napoli and Roma start before indulging over there. I'd also like to give Spain a couple more matches before I give any pointers over there. It is very hard to judge someone like Villarreal when they've been turned over by Barcelona as there is only one other team in that league of their quality. Germany is a much more level playing field, and is a big reason behind the growing popularity of the Bundesliga all over Europe. There tend to be goals in most matches and huge noisy crowds. This all adds up to a brilliant product to those who actually like watching the sport itself and the rest of Europe would do well to take a leaf out of ze Germans book. Four games in and we see Monchengladbach have started well with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. They have not lost at home and have scored 5 whilst conceding only 2 at home. Kaiserslautern have started poorly, as tipped by many with a close eye on the Bundesliga, and are yet to win. Looking at this there is only one team to back here. Back Monchengladback at 1.95 with Victor Chandler.
Wolfsburg v Schalke 04, Sunday 1630
The last match of the weekend in Germany sees Felix Magath taking his new side Wolfsburg to his old side Schalke. It's hard not to criticise Magath's management of both sides when you see Schalke flourishing at this early stage and Wolfsburg plunged into despair and with players and fans very unhappy already. Magath is something of a disciplinarian and whilst he has had success in the past, it is beginning to look like his methods have ceased to be effective. Wolfsburg have opened up with 1 win and 3 losses and Magath is already under pressure, pressure he has turned onto his players and seemingly made the problem worse. Schalke have started with 3 wins and 1 loss, they have won both at home and scored 6 whilst only conceding 1 in those two matches. Klaas Jan Huntelaar is finally beginning to find the form that made him such hot property in Holland a few years back and they look set to contend for a Champions League place at the least. I think you have to back Schalke at 2.87, again with Victor Chandler.
AJ Ajaccio v Valenciennes, Saturday 1800
At this early stage of the season in the terminally dull Ligue Un both of these sides look set to struggle. Both are without a win and are looking very poor. In a league renowned for it's lack of goals for newly promoted Ajaccio to have conceded 8 already in only four matches does not bode at all well for their season. Valenciennes have only scored 2 in four matches and currently sit bottom of the table. They have been on the slide for a couple of seasons as far as I am aware and will be unlikely to turn the season around enough to not be involved in the relegation battle. Looking purely at the stats you would have to imagine Valenciennes will get a couple of opportunities judging by Ajaccio's goal difference, but goals have been hard to come by for them. I think this will probably turn out a bore draw. Back the draw at 3.0 with that price widely available.
Montpellier v Nice, Sunday 1600
After four matches in France Montpellier sit proudly atop the league with 3 wins and a loss. They have won both matches at home and were only beaten by an injury time goal in their last match to destroy their unbeaten start. They have also scored 7 goals in their 2 home matches and conceded just 1. Nice have not started quite so well. They are still yet to win and have drawn 3 from 4 and also lost 1. The side was somewhat covered by Loic Remy's goals for a couple of seasons and in his absence they look very short of quality. I would be very surprised if Montpellier continued their form all the way through the season, but right now they are very impressive and Nice will not be looking forward to this match in their current malaise. I am confident Montpellier can get a comfortable win. Back Montpellier -1.0 asian at 2.35 with Bet365.
Eskisehirspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1530
The Turkish Super Lig restarts this weekend and there are a couple of players that should be pretty familiar to some in this country over there now. Eskisehir have signed ex-Rangers goal hanger extraordinaire Kris Boyd after his complete failure to do anything of note in the Championship. He ought to enjoy it more in Turkey though as generally the defending is pretty laissez faire and he will get opportunities. As mentioned there is no form at all at present so it is a mix of last seasons form and gut instinct on these tips. Besiktas did fine last season without setting the world alight like they wanted to after fairly major investment. Eskisehir were solid at home, but lacked goals to turn games, presumably where Boyd comes in. I think at this early stage Besiktas are worth opposing. Back Eskisehirspor Draw No Bet at 2.9 with Coral.
Now normally I like to think I have a bit of an edge on the Turkish football as I spend quite a lot of time researching it and I doubt very much whether most bookmakers do. However, this weekend I may put a couple of matches up, but it is the first round of matches so it will be hard to pick with much certainty for a couple of weeks yet. This season in particular should be very interesting in the Super Lig as Fenerbahce are still coming to terms with the scandal around match fixing that engulfed them over the summer. They have mostly sold players with very little being added to the squad. Galatasasray reacted to their own poor season last time by signing all manner of players and are definitely the team to watch for me.
Musical recommendation this week is Osker with Strangled. I'm not sure if many, if any, of you actually enjoy this bit of the blog, but the album Idle Will Kill that this track comes from is fantastic.
Wolves v Tottenham, Saturday 1500
First pick this week comes from a game with two teams whose starts to the season have been very contrasting. Wolves had been something of a yo-yo club before they came up in 2009 under Mick McCarthy and Mick himself had a reputation as being a good manager, but not up to top level standards. But here we are in 2011 and Wolves are still here, and they have started the season looking very good. They will probably still find a European push too much, but they have built a decent squad and should comfortably avoid a relegation fight. The signing of Roger Johnson looks a very good one. The Birmingham defence was generally pretty sound and he was recognised as the better part of it. At Spurs Redknapp's stock continues to fall as the men for White Hart Lane look further away than ever from re-entering the Champions League. Nowhere is this more profoundly seen than with Man City viewing them as so little competition as to loan them Emanuel Adebayor. I'm sure Harry would cry his little eyes out at his 'tiny' squad and few additions, but if you examine his transfers into the club far too many have already been shipped out at a loss. At this stage of the season I think you've got to take them on. Back Wolves at a huge 3.12 with Victor Chandler.
Fulham v Blackburn, Sunday 1600
The afternoon match on Sunday brings my second tip for this weekend. Blackburn are making the trip down to Craven Cottage still looking for a point. They have looked truly hopeless so far and I am looking at the 4.5 I took on them being relegated as being nailed on already. Deadline day saw them finally sign some players, but whether they will be anything like enough to stop the rot is very dubious. The standout names are Scott Dann and Yakubu. Dann was injured for a lot of last season and centre half was not really where the problems lay so whilst I think he's a good player, I don't see that saving them at all. The Yak is an interesting one, he was a cracking player whilst at Portsmouth, but has struggled with 'fitness' issues for most of his time at Everton. He still looks a very large boy and it could take some time for him to bed in, if he does at all. Fulham have only got a solitary point so far as Martin Jol tries to shape the side how he would like. They have lost both away games, but for Fulham that isn't exactly a new story. As ever their problem has layed in scoring goals, with Clint Dempsey stepping up to be the new Tim Cahill and bringing most of their threat from midfield. The addition of Bryan Ruiz from Twente should add the creativity they have badly missed in the last couple of seasons as Danny Murphy's influence wanes. Back Fulham -1.0 asian at 2.25 with Paddy Power.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Kaiserslautern, Saturday 1430
I will avoid Italy's Serie A this weekend as it is the first matches and I'm keen to see how Napoli and Roma start before indulging over there. I'd also like to give Spain a couple more matches before I give any pointers over there. It is very hard to judge someone like Villarreal when they've been turned over by Barcelona as there is only one other team in that league of their quality. Germany is a much more level playing field, and is a big reason behind the growing popularity of the Bundesliga all over Europe. There tend to be goals in most matches and huge noisy crowds. This all adds up to a brilliant product to those who actually like watching the sport itself and the rest of Europe would do well to take a leaf out of ze Germans book. Four games in and we see Monchengladbach have started well with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. They have not lost at home and have scored 5 whilst conceding only 2 at home. Kaiserslautern have started poorly, as tipped by many with a close eye on the Bundesliga, and are yet to win. Looking at this there is only one team to back here. Back Monchengladback at 1.95 with Victor Chandler.
Wolfsburg v Schalke 04, Sunday 1630
The last match of the weekend in Germany sees Felix Magath taking his new side Wolfsburg to his old side Schalke. It's hard not to criticise Magath's management of both sides when you see Schalke flourishing at this early stage and Wolfsburg plunged into despair and with players and fans very unhappy already. Magath is something of a disciplinarian and whilst he has had success in the past, it is beginning to look like his methods have ceased to be effective. Wolfsburg have opened up with 1 win and 3 losses and Magath is already under pressure, pressure he has turned onto his players and seemingly made the problem worse. Schalke have started with 3 wins and 1 loss, they have won both at home and scored 6 whilst only conceding 1 in those two matches. Klaas Jan Huntelaar is finally beginning to find the form that made him such hot property in Holland a few years back and they look set to contend for a Champions League place at the least. I think you have to back Schalke at 2.87, again with Victor Chandler.
AJ Ajaccio v Valenciennes, Saturday 1800
At this early stage of the season in the terminally dull Ligue Un both of these sides look set to struggle. Both are without a win and are looking very poor. In a league renowned for it's lack of goals for newly promoted Ajaccio to have conceded 8 already in only four matches does not bode at all well for their season. Valenciennes have only scored 2 in four matches and currently sit bottom of the table. They have been on the slide for a couple of seasons as far as I am aware and will be unlikely to turn the season around enough to not be involved in the relegation battle. Looking purely at the stats you would have to imagine Valenciennes will get a couple of opportunities judging by Ajaccio's goal difference, but goals have been hard to come by for them. I think this will probably turn out a bore draw. Back the draw at 3.0 with that price widely available.
Montpellier v Nice, Sunday 1600
After four matches in France Montpellier sit proudly atop the league with 3 wins and a loss. They have won both matches at home and were only beaten by an injury time goal in their last match to destroy their unbeaten start. They have also scored 7 goals in their 2 home matches and conceded just 1. Nice have not started quite so well. They are still yet to win and have drawn 3 from 4 and also lost 1. The side was somewhat covered by Loic Remy's goals for a couple of seasons and in his absence they look very short of quality. I would be very surprised if Montpellier continued their form all the way through the season, but right now they are very impressive and Nice will not be looking forward to this match in their current malaise. I am confident Montpellier can get a comfortable win. Back Montpellier -1.0 asian at 2.35 with Bet365.
Eskisehirspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1530
The Turkish Super Lig restarts this weekend and there are a couple of players that should be pretty familiar to some in this country over there now. Eskisehir have signed ex-Rangers goal hanger extraordinaire Kris Boyd after his complete failure to do anything of note in the Championship. He ought to enjoy it more in Turkey though as generally the defending is pretty laissez faire and he will get opportunities. As mentioned there is no form at all at present so it is a mix of last seasons form and gut instinct on these tips. Besiktas did fine last season without setting the world alight like they wanted to after fairly major investment. Eskisehir were solid at home, but lacked goals to turn games, presumably where Boyd comes in. I think at this early stage Besiktas are worth opposing. Back Eskisehirspor Draw No Bet at 2.9 with Coral.
Thursday, 1 September 2011
Just when I was getting good at this...
Last weekends tips saw me with the best strike rate I have had in a few weeks. As I have been banging on about for a couple of weeks I would like to think it is down to being better informed on how teams are playing and so on. Saying that I honestly thought Man Utd looked a little skinny at 1.5 against Arsenal, shows even I'm not perfect I guess.
Having gotten back into something of a groove we now see international football marching over the horizon to ruin all that. I know some people who swear by international betting, mainly due to the amount of no-hopers you can get against on handicaps. I tend to try and find a bit better odds than that though and this makes it more difficult. Teams can have breaks of 2 months between games and training together and this obviously has an effect on performance that is hard to quantify when looking for bets. However comma I will endeavour to find some value out there, although there may not be as many bets as sometimes.
Israel v Greece, Friday 1405
First match of the days Euro 2012 qualifying is also something I think is well worth a punt on. Israel is always a tough place to visit, be it as an international or club side. It's a good trek out of mainland Europe and also is quite an intimidating place to be playing football. This has led to many good sides struggling to come away from the country with full points. Greece have not exactly become more expansive since their thrilling Euro's win. They are built to not concede goals firstly and to try and impose themselves physically to sneak wins. They currently sit atop their group with 14 points ahead of both Israel and Croatia on 13 points each. Israel should see this as a chance to steal a march on their rivals, and I'll be backing them to do it. Back Israel at 2.3 at William Hill before the price goes.
Belarus v Bosnia, Friday 1830
Another side with a good home record are Belarus, so good they almost beat France at home in these very qualifiers. They have a number of players in the ever-improving Russian Premier League as well as a scattering in Germany and France. And also the wondrous dribbling non scorer Alex Hleb. They are technically pretty gifted in attacking positions, but typically Eastern European in their hard as nails approach at the back. They have so far played 4 matches at home in these qualifiers and both won and drawn 2 with no losses. Bosnia are very similar in set up essentially. They too have some very good attacking players, including the reborn Edin Dzeko, and some very tough defenders. It looks a very tough game to call, so tough I think I'll be hedging my bets. Back the Draw at a standout 3.4 with Stan James.
Northern Ireland v Serbia, Friday 1945
This is not a match I would particularly recommend watching. Northern Ireland have become something of the masters of reducing a game to nothing and trying to snatch goals from set pieces. And all power to them. They're a very small country in the grand scheme of things and this approach has stopped many predicted losses that the likes of Scotland and Wales would no doubt envy. So far they are unbeaten at home and are yet to concede a goal. This alone makes the fact the bookies have Serbia as favourites looking very odd. They definitely are a very good team, but are currently sitting behind Ireland in 3rd in their group. They're yet to really show what they're made of for whatever reason. With the likes of Nemandja Vidic in the side they should always have a chance, but the stats are against them here. I'm going to give myself a little bet of a hand by giving Northern Ireland a slight handicap too. Back Northern Ireland +0.25 asian at 2.02 at Bet365.
Albania v France, Friday 2000
Last bet for tomorrow and it is something of a long shot, albeit backed by goings on so far. Albania are currently second bottom to Luxembourg in the group, but crucially are unbeaten on their own turf. They have beaten Belarus in their last match and also drawn with a very decent Bosnia side. I can't tell you much about the individual players as I really haven't a clue, but they obviously put on a good show in front of their own fans. France have recovered from their horrendous World Cup by looking like being one of the major European forces once again. Under Laurent Blanc many new faces have been given a look in and this has played a part in freshening up the squad as well as giving more energy. I think they may well win, but I don't think they'll have it all their own way, especially with the players not fully into the league seasons yet. I would back Under 2.0 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Having gotten back into something of a groove we now see international football marching over the horizon to ruin all that. I know some people who swear by international betting, mainly due to the amount of no-hopers you can get against on handicaps. I tend to try and find a bit better odds than that though and this makes it more difficult. Teams can have breaks of 2 months between games and training together and this obviously has an effect on performance that is hard to quantify when looking for bets. However comma I will endeavour to find some value out there, although there may not be as many bets as sometimes.
Israel v Greece, Friday 1405
First match of the days Euro 2012 qualifying is also something I think is well worth a punt on. Israel is always a tough place to visit, be it as an international or club side. It's a good trek out of mainland Europe and also is quite an intimidating place to be playing football. This has led to many good sides struggling to come away from the country with full points. Greece have not exactly become more expansive since their thrilling Euro's win. They are built to not concede goals firstly and to try and impose themselves physically to sneak wins. They currently sit atop their group with 14 points ahead of both Israel and Croatia on 13 points each. Israel should see this as a chance to steal a march on their rivals, and I'll be backing them to do it. Back Israel at 2.3 at William Hill before the price goes.
Belarus v Bosnia, Friday 1830
Another side with a good home record are Belarus, so good they almost beat France at home in these very qualifiers. They have a number of players in the ever-improving Russian Premier League as well as a scattering in Germany and France. And also the wondrous dribbling non scorer Alex Hleb. They are technically pretty gifted in attacking positions, but typically Eastern European in their hard as nails approach at the back. They have so far played 4 matches at home in these qualifiers and both won and drawn 2 with no losses. Bosnia are very similar in set up essentially. They too have some very good attacking players, including the reborn Edin Dzeko, and some very tough defenders. It looks a very tough game to call, so tough I think I'll be hedging my bets. Back the Draw at a standout 3.4 with Stan James.
Northern Ireland v Serbia, Friday 1945
This is not a match I would particularly recommend watching. Northern Ireland have become something of the masters of reducing a game to nothing and trying to snatch goals from set pieces. And all power to them. They're a very small country in the grand scheme of things and this approach has stopped many predicted losses that the likes of Scotland and Wales would no doubt envy. So far they are unbeaten at home and are yet to concede a goal. This alone makes the fact the bookies have Serbia as favourites looking very odd. They definitely are a very good team, but are currently sitting behind Ireland in 3rd in their group. They're yet to really show what they're made of for whatever reason. With the likes of Nemandja Vidic in the side they should always have a chance, but the stats are against them here. I'm going to give myself a little bet of a hand by giving Northern Ireland a slight handicap too. Back Northern Ireland +0.25 asian at 2.02 at Bet365.
Albania v France, Friday 2000
Last bet for tomorrow and it is something of a long shot, albeit backed by goings on so far. Albania are currently second bottom to Luxembourg in the group, but crucially are unbeaten on their own turf. They have beaten Belarus in their last match and also drawn with a very decent Bosnia side. I can't tell you much about the individual players as I really haven't a clue, but they obviously put on a good show in front of their own fans. France have recovered from their horrendous World Cup by looking like being one of the major European forces once again. Under Laurent Blanc many new faces have been given a look in and this has played a part in freshening up the squad as well as giving more energy. I think they may well win, but I don't think they'll have it all their own way, especially with the players not fully into the league seasons yet. I would back Under 2.0 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Friday, 26 August 2011
Onwards and upwards...
To say I haven't had a stellar couple of weeks tipping would be a slight understatement. In my defence a lot of matches have only gone against me last minute and this time of the season is notoriously hard to pick winners due to a complete lack of playing time to judge the teams. But, I should be doing better. Those of you that also follow me on Twitter will have noticed that I picked 5 from 7 winners in the Careless Cup midweek, sadly I didn't have time around my actual job to put those up in the form of the blog.
Hopefully now that most sides have played 3 or 4 matches it should be slightly easier to get a feel of how they will be getting on this season. Obviously if you listen to some newspapers, or most sadly, Arsenal are probably going to be relegated as the worst team in the history of the game, Man Utd's new batch of kids will likely show Barcelona exactly how to play football and everyone else is largely irrelevant. Of course we know this is not the case. Blackburn are the worst side in the history of football, not Arsenal.
Music comes from the superb Lawrence Arms with the cracking Recovering the Opposable Thumb.
Wigan v QPR, Saturday 1230
Those of you that have followed this blog since inception will know that I am no lover, or backer, of Wigan. I think they're a black mark on the Premier League with their consistently poor displays and skin of the teeth survival every season. And then there's the fact that no bugger watches them. I appreciate they're there on merit, but there are an awful lot of teams I would rather see take their place. Anyway...they looked pretty good away at newly promoted Swansea last weekend to me. They actually offered a decent attacking threat and Ben Watson looks a tidy little player to me. On the other hand QPR have not looked very good since coming up. They were handed their own arses by Bolton on the first weekend at home and then somehow beat Everton without ever looking likely to last weekend. There is a feel-good factor around the club now due to the removing og the previous owners, but as yet the new guy has not had a chance to alter the Championship standard team. Back Wigan at a very appealing 2.42 on Betfair whilst it lasts.
Swansea v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
I got burnt on Swansea last week, but I'm going to try them once more before I start thinking they're a lost cause. They again looked a good footballing side against Wigan, but they look a little short of firepower and that may be their undoing over the course of the season. The goalkeeper Vorn looks a real signing to me, even if Swansea go down he should not be short of offers. If they are going to stay in the division then home form will be all important, and the fact they were only beaten 3 times at the Liberty last season suggests it can be made something of a fortress. Sunderland, and in particular their manager Steve Bruce, are a very interesting case to me. They have never been shy of spending decent amounts of cash, but they seem very un-concerned about the fact they have seen no progression at all from all that investment. Similarly there are no articles calling for Bruce's head and no major fan unrest on matchdays. Why is this? He has presided over a period of major investment and no results. He changes the team every season, then uses it as an excuse to say they need more time to play together. They have again started poorly and were knocked out of the Careless Cup by Brighton midweek. Back Swansea to add to the misery at 2.5 with William Hill.
Tottenham v Man City, Sunday 1330
One of the matches of an actual 'Super Sunday' this week has Man City's first real challenge of the season as they take on Spurs at White Hart Lane. The Blue side of Manchester has been getting very excited over the last month with some brilliant signings made and some good early performances. Sergio Aguero has obviously taken most of the headlines, but equally as important has been David Silva. He is a proper playmaker when given the opportunity and it is his runs and passes that are making it easy for Aguero and Dzeko so far. Spurs have started late due to the rioting that took place around them a couple of weeks ago. They opened up with their annual surrender to Man Utd in a truly hopeless second half on Monday night. Sloppy Chops has been doing his usual routine of whining about how he has absolutely no players to pick from and it's all everyone else's fault. The fact that not a single one of his signings has performed since he got there seems completely alien to the utter clown. I think Spurs will again be left chasing shadows by Silva in particular and I expect something of a statement of intent from City. Back Man City at 2.5 with Bet365.
Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen, Saturday 1430
To the Bundesliga and a match between two sides with two wins and a loss in their three matches played. Hoffenheim have established themselves as something of a mainstay since being promoted a few years back. They were bankrolled by a local businessman to a certain extent and it seems that they are now happy to be an upper mid-table side with hopes of Europe every season. Not too bad for a village side. They generally entertain and try to play on the front foot too which has endeared them to a lot of neutrals from abroad. Werder are a fantastic team to watch when in full flow. They have played Ossie Ardiles style football for a decade now where it doesn't matter how many you concede, so long as you score more. Last season saw an attempt to try defending fail miserably and happily they look back to playing with reckless abandon once again this year. I'm going looking for goals, goals, goals in this. Back Over 3.5 goals at 3.0 with William Hill.
Hannover 96 v Mainz 05, Sunday 1430
A second match from Germany this week with the two upstarts of last season meeting in Hannover. Hannover sit atop the Bundesliga after three matches with two wins and a draw, Mainz have won two and lost one. Both sides came into last season playing good attacking football and also promoting youngsters from within to do so. This comes with the twofold bonus that the players have no fear and also they constantly learn how to play best with each other with no pre-conceived ideas. This should in theory only make both sides stronger this season. Hannover also gained a very good draw away in Sevilla last night to progress to the Europa League group stages. Sadly Mainz were eliminated early on in something of a shock result. I think both sides are evenly matched, but home form swings it towards Hannover for me. Back Hannover at 2.3 with Betfair.
Nice v Brest, Saturday 1800
First of all shall we have a jolly good chortle at the away sides name? Brest! Those crazy surrendering French swine! Back to the football now. Nice have started the season horribly a draw and two losses from their three matches. Losing star striker Loic Remy seems to have hurt them a great deal and they have been considerably poorer for his absence. Brest have stayed in the top flight against all predictions with shock wins here and there also adding to their CV. They have started the season with three straight draws with three goals for and three goals against. They fit right in in France as they are not the most entertaining of sides. I think we could again see a draw in this one. Back the draw at 3.1 with most firms.
Tom Tomsk v Amkar, Saturday 1230
Final match this week comes from Russia. Two sides battling at the wrong end of the table currently meet and it will probably be a deathly dull affair. Russian matches are generally not blesses with goals and the two sides respective home and away records would bear out my feelings for this one. Tom Tomsk have won once at home all season and Amkar have won once away all season. Tom Tomsk have scored 8 in 11 home matches and Amkar have scored 7 in 9 away matches. This is not one to raise the temperature I'm afraid. However comma I really don't see off the back of those stats how Amkar can be pretty short priced favourites for this. I am willing to oppose the odds makers on this. Lay Amkar at 1.85 on Betfair, or wait for another bookmaker to come out with Double Chance and back Tom Tomsk and Draw.
Hopefully now that most sides have played 3 or 4 matches it should be slightly easier to get a feel of how they will be getting on this season. Obviously if you listen to some newspapers, or most sadly, Arsenal are probably going to be relegated as the worst team in the history of the game, Man Utd's new batch of kids will likely show Barcelona exactly how to play football and everyone else is largely irrelevant. Of course we know this is not the case. Blackburn are the worst side in the history of football, not Arsenal.
Music comes from the superb Lawrence Arms with the cracking Recovering the Opposable Thumb.
Wigan v QPR, Saturday 1230
Those of you that have followed this blog since inception will know that I am no lover, or backer, of Wigan. I think they're a black mark on the Premier League with their consistently poor displays and skin of the teeth survival every season. And then there's the fact that no bugger watches them. I appreciate they're there on merit, but there are an awful lot of teams I would rather see take their place. Anyway...they looked pretty good away at newly promoted Swansea last weekend to me. They actually offered a decent attacking threat and Ben Watson looks a tidy little player to me. On the other hand QPR have not looked very good since coming up. They were handed their own arses by Bolton on the first weekend at home and then somehow beat Everton without ever looking likely to last weekend. There is a feel-good factor around the club now due to the removing og the previous owners, but as yet the new guy has not had a chance to alter the Championship standard team. Back Wigan at a very appealing 2.42 on Betfair whilst it lasts.
Swansea v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
I got burnt on Swansea last week, but I'm going to try them once more before I start thinking they're a lost cause. They again looked a good footballing side against Wigan, but they look a little short of firepower and that may be their undoing over the course of the season. The goalkeeper Vorn looks a real signing to me, even if Swansea go down he should not be short of offers. If they are going to stay in the division then home form will be all important, and the fact they were only beaten 3 times at the Liberty last season suggests it can be made something of a fortress. Sunderland, and in particular their manager Steve Bruce, are a very interesting case to me. They have never been shy of spending decent amounts of cash, but they seem very un-concerned about the fact they have seen no progression at all from all that investment. Similarly there are no articles calling for Bruce's head and no major fan unrest on matchdays. Why is this? He has presided over a period of major investment and no results. He changes the team every season, then uses it as an excuse to say they need more time to play together. They have again started poorly and were knocked out of the Careless Cup by Brighton midweek. Back Swansea to add to the misery at 2.5 with William Hill.
Tottenham v Man City, Sunday 1330
One of the matches of an actual 'Super Sunday' this week has Man City's first real challenge of the season as they take on Spurs at White Hart Lane. The Blue side of Manchester has been getting very excited over the last month with some brilliant signings made and some good early performances. Sergio Aguero has obviously taken most of the headlines, but equally as important has been David Silva. He is a proper playmaker when given the opportunity and it is his runs and passes that are making it easy for Aguero and Dzeko so far. Spurs have started late due to the rioting that took place around them a couple of weeks ago. They opened up with their annual surrender to Man Utd in a truly hopeless second half on Monday night. Sloppy Chops has been doing his usual routine of whining about how he has absolutely no players to pick from and it's all everyone else's fault. The fact that not a single one of his signings has performed since he got there seems completely alien to the utter clown. I think Spurs will again be left chasing shadows by Silva in particular and I expect something of a statement of intent from City. Back Man City at 2.5 with Bet365.
Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen, Saturday 1430
To the Bundesliga and a match between two sides with two wins and a loss in their three matches played. Hoffenheim have established themselves as something of a mainstay since being promoted a few years back. They were bankrolled by a local businessman to a certain extent and it seems that they are now happy to be an upper mid-table side with hopes of Europe every season. Not too bad for a village side. They generally entertain and try to play on the front foot too which has endeared them to a lot of neutrals from abroad. Werder are a fantastic team to watch when in full flow. They have played Ossie Ardiles style football for a decade now where it doesn't matter how many you concede, so long as you score more. Last season saw an attempt to try defending fail miserably and happily they look back to playing with reckless abandon once again this year. I'm going looking for goals, goals, goals in this. Back Over 3.5 goals at 3.0 with William Hill.
Hannover 96 v Mainz 05, Sunday 1430
A second match from Germany this week with the two upstarts of last season meeting in Hannover. Hannover sit atop the Bundesliga after three matches with two wins and a draw, Mainz have won two and lost one. Both sides came into last season playing good attacking football and also promoting youngsters from within to do so. This comes with the twofold bonus that the players have no fear and also they constantly learn how to play best with each other with no pre-conceived ideas. This should in theory only make both sides stronger this season. Hannover also gained a very good draw away in Sevilla last night to progress to the Europa League group stages. Sadly Mainz were eliminated early on in something of a shock result. I think both sides are evenly matched, but home form swings it towards Hannover for me. Back Hannover at 2.3 with Betfair.
Nice v Brest, Saturday 1800
First of all shall we have a jolly good chortle at the away sides name? Brest! Those crazy surrendering French swine! Back to the football now. Nice have started the season horribly a draw and two losses from their three matches. Losing star striker Loic Remy seems to have hurt them a great deal and they have been considerably poorer for his absence. Brest have stayed in the top flight against all predictions with shock wins here and there also adding to their CV. They have started the season with three straight draws with three goals for and three goals against. They fit right in in France as they are not the most entertaining of sides. I think we could again see a draw in this one. Back the draw at 3.1 with most firms.
Tom Tomsk v Amkar, Saturday 1230
Final match this week comes from Russia. Two sides battling at the wrong end of the table currently meet and it will probably be a deathly dull affair. Russian matches are generally not blesses with goals and the two sides respective home and away records would bear out my feelings for this one. Tom Tomsk have won once at home all season and Amkar have won once away all season. Tom Tomsk have scored 8 in 11 home matches and Amkar have scored 7 in 9 away matches. This is not one to raise the temperature I'm afraid. However comma I really don't see off the back of those stats how Amkar can be pretty short priced favourites for this. I am willing to oppose the odds makers on this. Lay Amkar at 1.85 on Betfair, or wait for another bookmaker to come out with Double Chance and back Tom Tomsk and Draw.
Friday, 19 August 2011
Once again from my sick bed...
All together now...aaahhhh. I can not seem to get well at present so I am once again writing this from my bed surrounded by Vicks Vaporub and copious legal drugs. Enough looking for sympathy now. This week has seen some European preliminary qualifiers taking place involving English clubs as well as the probable postponement of the start of La Liga due to loads of money issues. The organisation being what it is in Spain it could literally be any time when they actually kick off. If you ever whinge about the FA in England or the big club bias, well it's got nothing on Spain. Barcelona and Real Madrid suck up all the money and leave a lot of teams in the Primera unable to even pay the players wages, estimates suggest a deficit of almost £50million. As for European qualifiers, they went mostly as expected. English clubs looked comfortable, except Arsenal, and Spurs showed just how far behind chilly Jockoland is now. Arsenal looked good going forward, but as they always seem to, they had no end product. New signing Gervinho looks the epitome of this problem. He is quick, skilful and able to beat a man, but he gets near the box and he looks absolutely clueless as to his next move. It might be nerves, but if it isn't then Wenger needs seriously questioning for again repeating his mistakes. Music this week is Against Me! with the absolutely brilliant Borne on the FM Waves of the Heart.
Swansea v Wigan, Saturday 1500
First up this week is Wales first Premier League representatives Swansea taking on the consistently struggling Wigan at the Liberty Stadium. Swansea lost their first match, but in the hour they held out at 0-0 they showed they have the players to stay up if they can get a good home record going and get some wins against the lesser lights of the division. There is no shame in losing to a Citeh side that should go on to contest the title with Man Utd, and to hold them until Sergio Aguero was introduced speaks volumes. Aguero will surely go on to be the best player in the Prem now, with Torres a shadow of his former self and Fabregas departed only the incredibly patriotic would see Rooney as his equal. He is skilful, strong, quick and can play off both feet, him and David Silva could tear through most teams. Wigan started with a draw against another new side in Norwich. That they led and were pegged back at home does not bode well for a season where they would have hoped to avoid yet another relegation battle. The problem is that they are a League 1 side bankrolled by Dave Whelan, and the two can not continue to mutually exist forever. This will likely be the season they fall for me, losing N'Zogbia is a terminal hit they could ill afford. Back Swansea to get their first points at 2.2 with Betfred.
Aston Villa v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
Next up is Villa hosting my pre-season tips for the drop Blackburn. Villa opened with a 0-0 draw at Fulham, nothing to get excited or gloomy about there. Fulham kicked off their season weeks ago with some Europa prelim's and Craven Cottage is always a bit of a fortress. Villa held their own and also made some chances. A lot of people looked at their struggles last season and the loss of Ashley Young and forecast another season of struggle, personally I think they'll be fine. N'Zogbia is a more than adequate replacement for Young and should continue to supply Darren Bent who will as always get goals. Their defence is much better than a lot of sides so those goals should be more than enough for at least mid-table obscurity/security. Blackburn started what will be a horrible season with a home defeat by Wolves despite leading 1-0. They have made no additions to a squad that looked horrifically out of it's depth last season. I think Formica, who scored last week, may well be the only bright spot. He looks a decent player and will probably get 10-15 goals if he plays regularly. I don't see that being nearly enough to cover for the glaring lack of quality elsewhere though. I think Bent will be looking forward to this, and with good reason. Back Villa -1.0 Asian at 2.35 with Bet365.
Chelsea v West Brom, Saturday 1730
Last tip from the Prem is Chelsea taking on Woy's West Bwom at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are supposedly in the process of recruiting some players from Villa Boas former employers Porto, and they can't come quick enough. Whilst Stoke is never an easy place to go, they looked bereft of ideas for the most part and had no width at all. They might have had plenty of managers since that utter prat Jose, but they have continued to play the same style and with mostly the same personnel. The problem is that they were at their peak when Jose was there and now the power that got them through has significantly dimmed. They need new, younger blood, and I was not impressed that Anelka was brought on last week and Sturridge ignored. West Brom opened with a tough match against Man Utd and didn't look overawed at all. Hodgson has them playing a style they are comfortable with and away from the glare of Anfield he seems much happier. Keeping Odemwingie is a real coup too, plenty of unproven strikers are moving or linked for far more than I'd imagine he would cost. Shane Long also looked like he had carried his confidence over from last season, he was happy to run at Utd and take shots. I think Chelsea may well sneak a win, but I don't see them thrashing Brom. Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.45 with Paddy Power.
Caen v Lille, Saturday 1800
I would say this is the best value of the weekend. Caen have started the Ligue Un season very well and have a perfect record of two wins from two matches. Lille have an awful record in August for the last few years and have failed to win in 3 seasons at the start I believe. They have not bucked the trend this year with a home loss and sneaking an away draw last weekend. Eden Hazard has impressed for the defending champions, but they are missing Gervinho and Moussa Sow is already looking like the painfully average striker he was every season before last year. None of this bodes at all well for Lille. I think Caen will sneak a win in this. There are never many goals in Ligue Un, making it a very unpopular option to viewers and therefore restricting TV money. This in turn leads to trouble luring and keeping players, although PSG are bucking that trend now with oil money. Back Caen at 4.0 on Betfair now, they should be more like 3.6.
Fc Koln v Kaiserslautern, Saturday 1730
The live match in Germany this week sees the ever entertaining Koln hosting Kaiserslautern. Koln are almost the Newcastle of Germany as I understand it. An absolute basket case of a club, with ideas they are much bigger than they realistically are. And added to that they have possibly the biggest egomaniac in German football since Steffan Edberg in Lukas Podolski. Whilst he is undoubtably a talented player, he is a Cologne boy and bringing him back to the club has only seemed to fuel his inflated sense of self-worth. He runs very little and is quick to criticise everyone else when things aren't going his way. Kaiserslautern are the second worst team from the first two matches having actually got a point compared to Koln's zero. They will probably struggle too, but probably wont be as much fun as Koln in doing so. There has been four goals in Kaiserslautern's two matches and a huge NINE in Koln's two. I see no reason why this wont continue to be the trend as they have a rather cavalier approach to defending. Back Over 2.5 goals at a very appealing 2.02 with Ladbrokes.
Heracles v Feyenoord, Sunday 1130
Continuing our tour of Europe we are in Holland for our last tip of the weekend. Traditionally one of the Eredivisie's big three sides along with Ajax and PSV are Feyenoord. However comma they have fallen on hard times the last few seasons with a lack of money the main reason for doing so. As soon as a player has come through their still impressive academy and looked decent they have been swept away, the latest being teenage striker Luc Castaignos who has joined Inter Milan. They will always have the pull to get players in to the club to avoid trouble, but most were predicting another season of mid-table at best. They have opened up by winning their first two matches and scoring five goals, keeping two clean sheets in the process. And against both sides they were very good for most of the match. Whether they can keep up this form for the whole season is doubtful, but they are a team on fire at present. Heracles have opened with a respectable win and a draw, albeit against two sides in Waalwijk and Breda who wont tear up any trees. They have scored twice in both matches though and should pose a test to Feyenoord. I think Feyenoord are a good price to win at 3.5, but I'm not confident enough they wont be happy with a draw. I think Feyenoord's Cabral is very good value to score anytime with Bet365 quoting the market. He bagged a brace in their last match too. Back Cabral to score anytime at 3.6 with Bet365.
Swansea v Wigan, Saturday 1500
First up this week is Wales first Premier League representatives Swansea taking on the consistently struggling Wigan at the Liberty Stadium. Swansea lost their first match, but in the hour they held out at 0-0 they showed they have the players to stay up if they can get a good home record going and get some wins against the lesser lights of the division. There is no shame in losing to a Citeh side that should go on to contest the title with Man Utd, and to hold them until Sergio Aguero was introduced speaks volumes. Aguero will surely go on to be the best player in the Prem now, with Torres a shadow of his former self and Fabregas departed only the incredibly patriotic would see Rooney as his equal. He is skilful, strong, quick and can play off both feet, him and David Silva could tear through most teams. Wigan started with a draw against another new side in Norwich. That they led and were pegged back at home does not bode well for a season where they would have hoped to avoid yet another relegation battle. The problem is that they are a League 1 side bankrolled by Dave Whelan, and the two can not continue to mutually exist forever. This will likely be the season they fall for me, losing N'Zogbia is a terminal hit they could ill afford. Back Swansea to get their first points at 2.2 with Betfred.
Aston Villa v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
Next up is Villa hosting my pre-season tips for the drop Blackburn. Villa opened with a 0-0 draw at Fulham, nothing to get excited or gloomy about there. Fulham kicked off their season weeks ago with some Europa prelim's and Craven Cottage is always a bit of a fortress. Villa held their own and also made some chances. A lot of people looked at their struggles last season and the loss of Ashley Young and forecast another season of struggle, personally I think they'll be fine. N'Zogbia is a more than adequate replacement for Young and should continue to supply Darren Bent who will as always get goals. Their defence is much better than a lot of sides so those goals should be more than enough for at least mid-table obscurity/security. Blackburn started what will be a horrible season with a home defeat by Wolves despite leading 1-0. They have made no additions to a squad that looked horrifically out of it's depth last season. I think Formica, who scored last week, may well be the only bright spot. He looks a decent player and will probably get 10-15 goals if he plays regularly. I don't see that being nearly enough to cover for the glaring lack of quality elsewhere though. I think Bent will be looking forward to this, and with good reason. Back Villa -1.0 Asian at 2.35 with Bet365.
Chelsea v West Brom, Saturday 1730
Last tip from the Prem is Chelsea taking on Woy's West Bwom at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are supposedly in the process of recruiting some players from Villa Boas former employers Porto, and they can't come quick enough. Whilst Stoke is never an easy place to go, they looked bereft of ideas for the most part and had no width at all. They might have had plenty of managers since that utter prat Jose, but they have continued to play the same style and with mostly the same personnel. The problem is that they were at their peak when Jose was there and now the power that got them through has significantly dimmed. They need new, younger blood, and I was not impressed that Anelka was brought on last week and Sturridge ignored. West Brom opened with a tough match against Man Utd and didn't look overawed at all. Hodgson has them playing a style they are comfortable with and away from the glare of Anfield he seems much happier. Keeping Odemwingie is a real coup too, plenty of unproven strikers are moving or linked for far more than I'd imagine he would cost. Shane Long also looked like he had carried his confidence over from last season, he was happy to run at Utd and take shots. I think Chelsea may well sneak a win, but I don't see them thrashing Brom. Back Under 2.5 goals at 2.45 with Paddy Power.
Caen v Lille, Saturday 1800
I would say this is the best value of the weekend. Caen have started the Ligue Un season very well and have a perfect record of two wins from two matches. Lille have an awful record in August for the last few years and have failed to win in 3 seasons at the start I believe. They have not bucked the trend this year with a home loss and sneaking an away draw last weekend. Eden Hazard has impressed for the defending champions, but they are missing Gervinho and Moussa Sow is already looking like the painfully average striker he was every season before last year. None of this bodes at all well for Lille. I think Caen will sneak a win in this. There are never many goals in Ligue Un, making it a very unpopular option to viewers and therefore restricting TV money. This in turn leads to trouble luring and keeping players, although PSG are bucking that trend now with oil money. Back Caen at 4.0 on Betfair now, they should be more like 3.6.
Fc Koln v Kaiserslautern, Saturday 1730
The live match in Germany this week sees the ever entertaining Koln hosting Kaiserslautern. Koln are almost the Newcastle of Germany as I understand it. An absolute basket case of a club, with ideas they are much bigger than they realistically are. And added to that they have possibly the biggest egomaniac in German football since Steffan Edberg in Lukas Podolski. Whilst he is undoubtably a talented player, he is a Cologne boy and bringing him back to the club has only seemed to fuel his inflated sense of self-worth. He runs very little and is quick to criticise everyone else when things aren't going his way. Kaiserslautern are the second worst team from the first two matches having actually got a point compared to Koln's zero. They will probably struggle too, but probably wont be as much fun as Koln in doing so. There has been four goals in Kaiserslautern's two matches and a huge NINE in Koln's two. I see no reason why this wont continue to be the trend as they have a rather cavalier approach to defending. Back Over 2.5 goals at a very appealing 2.02 with Ladbrokes.
Heracles v Feyenoord, Sunday 1130
Continuing our tour of Europe we are in Holland for our last tip of the weekend. Traditionally one of the Eredivisie's big three sides along with Ajax and PSV are Feyenoord. However comma they have fallen on hard times the last few seasons with a lack of money the main reason for doing so. As soon as a player has come through their still impressive academy and looked decent they have been swept away, the latest being teenage striker Luc Castaignos who has joined Inter Milan. They will always have the pull to get players in to the club to avoid trouble, but most were predicting another season of mid-table at best. They have opened up by winning their first two matches and scoring five goals, keeping two clean sheets in the process. And against both sides they were very good for most of the match. Whether they can keep up this form for the whole season is doubtful, but they are a team on fire at present. Heracles have opened with a respectable win and a draw, albeit against two sides in Waalwijk and Breda who wont tear up any trees. They have scored twice in both matches though and should pose a test to Feyenoord. I think Feyenoord are a good price to win at 3.5, but I'm not confident enough they wont be happy with a draw. I think Feyenoord's Cabral is very good value to score anytime with Bet365 quoting the market. He bagged a brace in their last match too. Back Cabral to score anytime at 3.6 with Bet365.
Wednesday, 6 July 2011
The Copa's Half Full...
Well, all the teams have now played once in the Copa America, and it's been a fairly damp squib so far. Both Argentina and Brazil failed to win their opening matches and now will be keen to get a win to ease their passages to the knockout stages. This is particularly important to Argentina with them being the hosts and the country still in mourning at River Plate's first ever relegation. Personally I'm hoping to pick some winners this time as I'm well aware all the upsets have cost me and you dearly so far!
Argentina v Colombia, Thursday 0145
First up is again the hosts, this time taking on tipped outsiders Colombia. Both underwhelmed in their opening matches. Argentina had to come from behind to grasp a draw from minnows Bolivia and Colombia failed to add to a solitary goal in 45 minutes against a poor 10 man Costa Rica side. I have always had faith in the Argie's to improve, mostly because they have Messi, but my faith is being tested. Coach Batista supposedly tried to mimic Barcelona in the first match in an effort to bring out Messi's best form, and it failed. He had looked impressive in recent matches though so I would expect to see them revert to a formula that suits the team as a whole rather than just their best player. Colombia haven't scored more than 2 in a match in over 3 years, and I knowingly went against form in their first match. If they couldn't put more than 1 past a 10 man Costa Rica B team then I'm beginning to fear for their longevity in the tournament. I think Argentina might nick this, but I don't think they'll run away with it. I'll back under 2.5 goals at a price of 1.95 with Bet365.
Bolivia v Costa Rica, Thursday 2315
The other game in Group A is between 2 of the lesser sides in the tournament in Bolivia and Costa Rica's under 22 side. I was very impressed with the organisation Bolivia showed in holding off Argentina in the main in their first match. They might have got lucky with their goal, but they probably deserved something from the match. Costa Rica were just lucky that Colombia didn't seem overly bothered in extending their lead from 1-0, even when the Costa Ricans were reduced to 10 men before half time. I think Bolivia will view this as very winnable, and a boost to their hopes of making the knockout stages, against the odds. I think William Hill are taking a chance at 2.0 on a Bolivia win and I'll be taking those odds.
Uruguay v Chile, Friday 2315
The two favourites for Group B meet late on Friday night in a match that will probably guarantee qualification for the winner. Uruguay were heavily tipped in a lot of media outlets to challenge Brazil and Argentina, but I still think their looking out of form since their great World Cup. This was somewhat backed up in their opening match with them falling behind and ultimately drawing with Peru. Luis Suarez got their goal, and he looks in great nick. Chile took on Mexico's C team in their opening match and emerged with a 2-1 victory. Mexico had sent an Under 22 side as guests and this was further weakened when 8 of that squad were sent home for liaising with ladies of ill repute. With all the upsets going on though, their victory looks quite impressive. They will definitely find it more difficult against Uruguay's impressive defence though. I fancy another draw in this one, with both teams as keen to avoid defeat as they are to win. Back it at a best priced 3.25 with Ladbrokes.
Peru v Mexico, Saturday 0145
The second match in Group B should be fairly interesting. Whoever wins this one should have a shot at reaching the knockout stages in their last group games. A draw would be ok for Peru, but with Chile left to play I would expect them to really go for this match. Mexico really are an unknown quantity to all but keen followers of their domestic league. It is a real chance for their young players to impress both their national manager and also any scouts at the games. For this reason they should not be underestimated, but equally Peru will rightly be favs for this match up. This being said I think Sportingbet have gone way out on a limb pricing Peru at 2.5 and I'd advise taking those odds now before they go.
Brazil v Paraguay, Saturday 2000
The evening match on Saturday sees my tournament tips Brazil taking on Paraguay. Brazil stuttered in their first match, having trouble breaking down a resiliant Venezuela side and finishing up 0-0. Venezuela have recently impressed in youth tournaments and some of the more impressive juniors are now making a name for themselves in the senior side. This is making Group C look like the most interesting group as every team has a chance of qualifying. Brazil are no longer the Samba, Joga Bonita side of old. They have something of a 'broken team', with the centre backs and central midfield instructed to stay back and hold whilst the full backs and forwards push on. Neymar looked disappointing to those expecting some sort of Messi Mark II with quotes of a £40mil price tag knocking around. He is not one to battle when it's tough going. Paraguay also opened up with a 0-0 draw, this time against Ecuador. I personally view Ecuador as better than Paraguay in a team sense and can easily see them being over-run by Brazil in this. Brazil will be keen to pick up a win and a cushion in their last match against the always tricky Ecuadorians. Back them -1.0 asian with Victor Chandler at 2.18.
Venezuela v Ecuador, Saturday 2230
Final match of these second round of games has 2 under-rated sides meeting. Both Venezuela and Ecuador picked up draws in their opening matches when starting as outsiders. In the case of Venezuela, they may well be a side to watch in the coming years. As mentioned, they have done well in youth tournaments in the last decade and it looks like they're beginning to reap the rewards. With Paraguay looking tired, and Uruguay with a World Cup hangover, they may well even qualify for Brazil 2014. Ecuador have become something of a fixture at World Cup's recently. Whilst they haven't got any superstars except maybe Antonio Valencia, they are a fantastic team who punch well above their weight. Goals have always been something of a problem for them though. However commma I can see some goals in this one. I think both sides will see this as the most winnable match and throw men forward accordingly. William Hill are as long as 2.5 for over 2.5 goals and I think that should be snapped up.
Argentina v Colombia, Thursday 0145
First up is again the hosts, this time taking on tipped outsiders Colombia. Both underwhelmed in their opening matches. Argentina had to come from behind to grasp a draw from minnows Bolivia and Colombia failed to add to a solitary goal in 45 minutes against a poor 10 man Costa Rica side. I have always had faith in the Argie's to improve, mostly because they have Messi, but my faith is being tested. Coach Batista supposedly tried to mimic Barcelona in the first match in an effort to bring out Messi's best form, and it failed. He had looked impressive in recent matches though so I would expect to see them revert to a formula that suits the team as a whole rather than just their best player. Colombia haven't scored more than 2 in a match in over 3 years, and I knowingly went against form in their first match. If they couldn't put more than 1 past a 10 man Costa Rica B team then I'm beginning to fear for their longevity in the tournament. I think Argentina might nick this, but I don't think they'll run away with it. I'll back under 2.5 goals at a price of 1.95 with Bet365.
Bolivia v Costa Rica, Thursday 2315
The other game in Group A is between 2 of the lesser sides in the tournament in Bolivia and Costa Rica's under 22 side. I was very impressed with the organisation Bolivia showed in holding off Argentina in the main in their first match. They might have got lucky with their goal, but they probably deserved something from the match. Costa Rica were just lucky that Colombia didn't seem overly bothered in extending their lead from 1-0, even when the Costa Ricans were reduced to 10 men before half time. I think Bolivia will view this as very winnable, and a boost to their hopes of making the knockout stages, against the odds. I think William Hill are taking a chance at 2.0 on a Bolivia win and I'll be taking those odds.
Uruguay v Chile, Friday 2315
The two favourites for Group B meet late on Friday night in a match that will probably guarantee qualification for the winner. Uruguay were heavily tipped in a lot of media outlets to challenge Brazil and Argentina, but I still think their looking out of form since their great World Cup. This was somewhat backed up in their opening match with them falling behind and ultimately drawing with Peru. Luis Suarez got their goal, and he looks in great nick. Chile took on Mexico's C team in their opening match and emerged with a 2-1 victory. Mexico had sent an Under 22 side as guests and this was further weakened when 8 of that squad were sent home for liaising with ladies of ill repute. With all the upsets going on though, their victory looks quite impressive. They will definitely find it more difficult against Uruguay's impressive defence though. I fancy another draw in this one, with both teams as keen to avoid defeat as they are to win. Back it at a best priced 3.25 with Ladbrokes.
Peru v Mexico, Saturday 0145
The second match in Group B should be fairly interesting. Whoever wins this one should have a shot at reaching the knockout stages in their last group games. A draw would be ok for Peru, but with Chile left to play I would expect them to really go for this match. Mexico really are an unknown quantity to all but keen followers of their domestic league. It is a real chance for their young players to impress both their national manager and also any scouts at the games. For this reason they should not be underestimated, but equally Peru will rightly be favs for this match up. This being said I think Sportingbet have gone way out on a limb pricing Peru at 2.5 and I'd advise taking those odds now before they go.
Brazil v Paraguay, Saturday 2000
The evening match on Saturday sees my tournament tips Brazil taking on Paraguay. Brazil stuttered in their first match, having trouble breaking down a resiliant Venezuela side and finishing up 0-0. Venezuela have recently impressed in youth tournaments and some of the more impressive juniors are now making a name for themselves in the senior side. This is making Group C look like the most interesting group as every team has a chance of qualifying. Brazil are no longer the Samba, Joga Bonita side of old. They have something of a 'broken team', with the centre backs and central midfield instructed to stay back and hold whilst the full backs and forwards push on. Neymar looked disappointing to those expecting some sort of Messi Mark II with quotes of a £40mil price tag knocking around. He is not one to battle when it's tough going. Paraguay also opened up with a 0-0 draw, this time against Ecuador. I personally view Ecuador as better than Paraguay in a team sense and can easily see them being over-run by Brazil in this. Brazil will be keen to pick up a win and a cushion in their last match against the always tricky Ecuadorians. Back them -1.0 asian with Victor Chandler at 2.18.
Venezuela v Ecuador, Saturday 2230
Final match of these second round of games has 2 under-rated sides meeting. Both Venezuela and Ecuador picked up draws in their opening matches when starting as outsiders. In the case of Venezuela, they may well be a side to watch in the coming years. As mentioned, they have done well in youth tournaments in the last decade and it looks like they're beginning to reap the rewards. With Paraguay looking tired, and Uruguay with a World Cup hangover, they may well even qualify for Brazil 2014. Ecuador have become something of a fixture at World Cup's recently. Whilst they haven't got any superstars except maybe Antonio Valencia, they are a fantastic team who punch well above their weight. Goals have always been something of a problem for them though. However commma I can see some goals in this one. I think both sides will see this as the most winnable match and throw men forward accordingly. William Hill are as long as 2.5 for over 2.5 goals and I think that should be snapped up.
Friday, 1 July 2011
Copa Load Of This...
Do you see what I did there? Tomorrow at 0145 GMT we finally have the kick-off in the first match of possibly the most colourful, entertaining, violent tournament in world football today, the Copa America. Argentina are hosting this feast of latin football, and I'm hopeful we'l see some cracking football, plenty of goals and hopefully some players we haven't seen a lot of yet. I would personally have my eyes open for Ganso of Brazil and Guarin of Uruguay. Both have been mentioned as fantastic players in certain publications, but have yet to capture the world's imagination and this could well be the tournament where they do that. I will look at each round of games as a group of six matches and publish every 4 or 5 days during the tournament to make sure I cover the lot.
Argentina v Bolivia, 0145 Saturday
As mentioned, the first match sees the hosts Argentina taking on perennial no-hopers Bolivia. Bolivia's most famous player is probably Marco Etcheverry, most remembered for getting sent off within minutes of his only World Cup appearance. Apart from that they have mostly been on the wrong end of some bad beatings. Argentina come into the tournament having lost a couple of recent friendlies, but not too much should be read into those. Sergio Batista has been blooding all sorts of fringe players of late to help him narrow down his squad and most, if not all, of them are unlikely to feature at all in this tournament. The Argentine public also view this as a chance to cast the country in a good light and the players will not be short of encouragement to do so. And they have the best player in football, which can't hurt can it? I would be backing a heavy win here. Even though the Albiceleste have a dodgy backline, I wouldn't expect Bolivia to score. I think the best value is on a bet of Argentina to win both halves at 1.8 with Stan James.
Colombia v Costa Rica, 1930 Saturday
Second game also comes from Group A and sees my outside tip, Colombia, taking on another whipping boy in Costa Rica. Costa Rica are probably most famous in this country for the bandy legged wonder Paolo Wanchope, a man who seemingly never knew himself what his legs were up to! These days they have no players in any big European Leagues and will probably be content to head home post tournament without suffering any embarrassments. Colombia contain Europe's most wanted striker in Radamel Falcao, a man who seemingly has it all in terms of the modern forward. He is also relatively free of ego, a rare trait in the modern footballer. I think he'll end up at Real Madrid as he has signed with Jose's dodgy agent friend Jorge Mendes, Skybet were 5.0 on that eventuality and I'd still be tempted at any price 4.0 or above. They also have his Porto teammate Freddy Guarin, who provided his supply line for most of the season. If these 2 can again link up then Colombia could go far here. I would back them -1.5 asian at 2.05 with Bet365 for this opening game.
Brazil v Venezuela, 2000 Sunday
Third game in and we see the other half of South America's big two with Brazil getting involved against another minnow in Venezuela. Venezuela have never been to the World Cup and have no pedigree in major tournaments at all. They are a small country and have never produced any players you or I would have heard of. This is absolutely no reason to right them off completely as a team, but they should provide no task for the might of Brazil. Under new coach Mario Menezes, Brazil have restructured the side. They are still tight at the back, a Dunga trait, but have blooded new, exciting players in the forward line as well as more attacking full backs. Lucas of Liverpool is also now a regular, mostly to provide extra cover when Marcelo and Dani Alves (the cheating prick of a man) go bombing on forward from full back. They usually start with Neymar, Pato and Ganso as a fluid triumvirate in the forward line now. All three are under 22 and come with the speed and audacity you might expect, also in Neymar's case some of the most pathetic diving you'll ever see. He'll seriously never make a career in England with the way he throws himself in the air now. I see this going a very similar way to Argentina's opener and will be betting the same market. I think there is some excellent value in Paddy Power quotes of 2.3 on Brazil to win both halves. Get involved with that.
Paraguay v Ecuador, 2230 Sunday
Fourth match in and we finally see a more even contest. Paraguay have been something of a force in South America for the last decade, producing players like Roque Santa Cruz and Lucas Barrios who have done well in Europe and aided them qualifying for World Cups. But, Santa Cruz looks half a man these days and his season at Blackburn where he scored a number of goals now looks like a one-off. They are simply not the team they were even a year ago. Other players like Paolo Da Silva and Cristian Riveros have ended up at European sides (Sunderland in this case) and found themselves out of the side and low on match practise and confidence. Ecuador on the other hand are always a danger. Whilst they have never really had a 'superstar' player, they are always a tight team unit and can cause most teams problems given the chance. Antonio Valencia will be their star man having returned strongly from injury for Man Utd at the end of the season. I think they are more than capable of giving Paraguay a scare, but it will probably be a low-scoring affair with both teams keen not to lose with Brazil also in Group B. Take the Draw or Ecuador in the Double Chance market at 1.9 with Skybet.
Uruguay v Peru, 2315 Monday
The final matches of this first round of games come from Group C. First up is World Cup surprise package Uruguay against Peru. Peru have probably not had much to shout about since the days of Trumpet playing Nobby Solano. They will probably be another team happy to escape the tournament having not suffered too heavy a defeat on the way. Uruguay's players have been on a high since the World Cup and in some cases have been on fire. This is particularly true of Napoli's Edison Cavani who ended the season as top scorer in Serie A and has been linked with a move away to a major team. Luis Suarez also finished the season well after transferring to Liverpool, looking like the only bit of creativity in a fairly workmanlike Pool side. Diego Forlan was the exception. After a couple of brilliant seasons at Atletico Madrid a fall out with management led to him often finding himself on the bench and angling for a move away from Spain's capital. This could well lead to some sluggish performances or a glorious swansong before one last big move. I would expect Uruguay to win this comfortably and will be backing them to win to nil at 2.0 with Ladbrokes as they have one of the best defences in South America.
Chile v Mexico, 0145 Tuesday
Last match of this tips blog comes from Group C in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Chile were a lot of people's outsiders for a decent World Cup run under Marcelo Bielsa and his somewhat different 3-3-1-3 formation. Sadly, the attacking flair that saw them looking excellent in qualifying deserted them at the tournament proper. Bielsa, having always been somewhat tricky to work with, was dispensed with after their exit. Their new coach, Claudio Borghi, has sought to make them a more difficult to beat side and they have lost some of the magic that made them a second team for many neutrals. Mexico have just come from winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup, North America's premier tournament, having spanked the USA 4-2 in the final. They have given a number of players time-off after that and head to this tournament with a team entirely made up of players from the Mexican League and Gio Dos Santos of Spurs. They may well see this as a chance to experiment and see how some fringe players cope with top level football. I certainly would not expect them to make too much of an impression. I wouldn't expect Mexico to have much to offer in attack in the absence of Man Utd's Javier Hernandez so I think Chile might well keep a clean sheet here. Ladbrokes go 2.1 on that possibility and I'll go for that in this one.
Argentina v Bolivia, 0145 Saturday
As mentioned, the first match sees the hosts Argentina taking on perennial no-hopers Bolivia. Bolivia's most famous player is probably Marco Etcheverry, most remembered for getting sent off within minutes of his only World Cup appearance. Apart from that they have mostly been on the wrong end of some bad beatings. Argentina come into the tournament having lost a couple of recent friendlies, but not too much should be read into those. Sergio Batista has been blooding all sorts of fringe players of late to help him narrow down his squad and most, if not all, of them are unlikely to feature at all in this tournament. The Argentine public also view this as a chance to cast the country in a good light and the players will not be short of encouragement to do so. And they have the best player in football, which can't hurt can it? I would be backing a heavy win here. Even though the Albiceleste have a dodgy backline, I wouldn't expect Bolivia to score. I think the best value is on a bet of Argentina to win both halves at 1.8 with Stan James.
Colombia v Costa Rica, 1930 Saturday
Second game also comes from Group A and sees my outside tip, Colombia, taking on another whipping boy in Costa Rica. Costa Rica are probably most famous in this country for the bandy legged wonder Paolo Wanchope, a man who seemingly never knew himself what his legs were up to! These days they have no players in any big European Leagues and will probably be content to head home post tournament without suffering any embarrassments. Colombia contain Europe's most wanted striker in Radamel Falcao, a man who seemingly has it all in terms of the modern forward. He is also relatively free of ego, a rare trait in the modern footballer. I think he'll end up at Real Madrid as he has signed with Jose's dodgy agent friend Jorge Mendes, Skybet were 5.0 on that eventuality and I'd still be tempted at any price 4.0 or above. They also have his Porto teammate Freddy Guarin, who provided his supply line for most of the season. If these 2 can again link up then Colombia could go far here. I would back them -1.5 asian at 2.05 with Bet365 for this opening game.
Brazil v Venezuela, 2000 Sunday
Third game in and we see the other half of South America's big two with Brazil getting involved against another minnow in Venezuela. Venezuela have never been to the World Cup and have no pedigree in major tournaments at all. They are a small country and have never produced any players you or I would have heard of. This is absolutely no reason to right them off completely as a team, but they should provide no task for the might of Brazil. Under new coach Mario Menezes, Brazil have restructured the side. They are still tight at the back, a Dunga trait, but have blooded new, exciting players in the forward line as well as more attacking full backs. Lucas of Liverpool is also now a regular, mostly to provide extra cover when Marcelo and Dani Alves (the cheating prick of a man) go bombing on forward from full back. They usually start with Neymar, Pato and Ganso as a fluid triumvirate in the forward line now. All three are under 22 and come with the speed and audacity you might expect, also in Neymar's case some of the most pathetic diving you'll ever see. He'll seriously never make a career in England with the way he throws himself in the air now. I see this going a very similar way to Argentina's opener and will be betting the same market. I think there is some excellent value in Paddy Power quotes of 2.3 on Brazil to win both halves. Get involved with that.
Paraguay v Ecuador, 2230 Sunday
Fourth match in and we finally see a more even contest. Paraguay have been something of a force in South America for the last decade, producing players like Roque Santa Cruz and Lucas Barrios who have done well in Europe and aided them qualifying for World Cups. But, Santa Cruz looks half a man these days and his season at Blackburn where he scored a number of goals now looks like a one-off. They are simply not the team they were even a year ago. Other players like Paolo Da Silva and Cristian Riveros have ended up at European sides (Sunderland in this case) and found themselves out of the side and low on match practise and confidence. Ecuador on the other hand are always a danger. Whilst they have never really had a 'superstar' player, they are always a tight team unit and can cause most teams problems given the chance. Antonio Valencia will be their star man having returned strongly from injury for Man Utd at the end of the season. I think they are more than capable of giving Paraguay a scare, but it will probably be a low-scoring affair with both teams keen not to lose with Brazil also in Group B. Take the Draw or Ecuador in the Double Chance market at 1.9 with Skybet.
Uruguay v Peru, 2315 Monday
The final matches of this first round of games come from Group C. First up is World Cup surprise package Uruguay against Peru. Peru have probably not had much to shout about since the days of Trumpet playing Nobby Solano. They will probably be another team happy to escape the tournament having not suffered too heavy a defeat on the way. Uruguay's players have been on a high since the World Cup and in some cases have been on fire. This is particularly true of Napoli's Edison Cavani who ended the season as top scorer in Serie A and has been linked with a move away to a major team. Luis Suarez also finished the season well after transferring to Liverpool, looking like the only bit of creativity in a fairly workmanlike Pool side. Diego Forlan was the exception. After a couple of brilliant seasons at Atletico Madrid a fall out with management led to him often finding himself on the bench and angling for a move away from Spain's capital. This could well lead to some sluggish performances or a glorious swansong before one last big move. I would expect Uruguay to win this comfortably and will be backing them to win to nil at 2.0 with Ladbrokes as they have one of the best defences in South America.
Chile v Mexico, 0145 Tuesday
Last match of this tips blog comes from Group C in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Chile were a lot of people's outsiders for a decent World Cup run under Marcelo Bielsa and his somewhat different 3-3-1-3 formation. Sadly, the attacking flair that saw them looking excellent in qualifying deserted them at the tournament proper. Bielsa, having always been somewhat tricky to work with, was dispensed with after their exit. Their new coach, Claudio Borghi, has sought to make them a more difficult to beat side and they have lost some of the magic that made them a second team for many neutrals. Mexico have just come from winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup, North America's premier tournament, having spanked the USA 4-2 in the final. They have given a number of players time-off after that and head to this tournament with a team entirely made up of players from the Mexican League and Gio Dos Santos of Spurs. They may well see this as a chance to experiment and see how some fringe players cope with top level football. I certainly would not expect them to make too much of an impression. I wouldn't expect Mexico to have much to offer in attack in the absence of Man Utd's Javier Hernandez so I think Chile might well keep a clean sheet here. Ladbrokes go 2.1 on that possibility and I'll go for that in this one.
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