An interesting week in Europe with Chelsea now the last men standing as England's representatives in European competition. I would say I hope this puts to bed any more suggestions that the Premier League is the best in the world, but I know it will still happen.
Chelsea should be commended for doing what only four teams before them have in overturning a 2 goal deficit in the second leg of their Champions League match with Napoli. The caveat is that they will be beaten by Barcelona, Real or Bayern comfortably and I wouldn't be in a rush to back them against anyone barring APOEL over two legs. The hurry to acclaim the old guard for the result should also be tempered with the acceptance they would not have made that effort for Villas Boas. You could say he has to earn that from them and his poor management led to lethargic performances, and that may be true, but they have been disgustingly unprofessional throughout the whole saga. Sadly, it is no more than we have come to expect from them either.
The title not-so-subtly alludes to both Manchester sides bowing out of the Europa League last night too. Both exits were embarrassing. United were outplayed in both legs by the side fighting for fourth in La Primera, and City left themselves too much to do against a side miles off Porto and Benfica in their domestic league. To go back to my first point, this really does show how far the Premier League is slipping at present. Many point to the boredom of Real and Barca endlessly sharing Spanish titles, and they're right on that score, but they fail to note that they would also walk any other league in the world in a similar fashion with their current sides.
Music comes from Johnny Cash with Cry!Cry!Cry!.
I am going to break with tradition and just have a multiple punt at England this week as I fail to see any particular value in the matches.
Back Chelsea, Man Utd and Tottenham as a treble.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Betis, Saturday 2100
The late match in Spain this Saturday sees two of last seasons promoted sides meeting in Madrid. Rayo have a very good case for being the most vehemently supported side in the capital as anyone who has been to the ground or watched them on TV will attest to. This raucous element can work both ways, as a home record of five wins, one draw and seven losses shows, but they have beaten Santander and Getafe recently whilst only losing to a solitary Ronaldo goal against Real. They sit comfortably in mid-table and could still possibly push for a European place which should see them maintaining maximum effort until the end of the season.
Betis have not fared quite so well since promotion. They could still slip back into the Segunda division as they are only four points clear of the final relegation spot. They are another side who have a rowdy home support, and they are famed throughout Spain for the more crazy element of that. Their away form has been the let down for them with a record of won four, drawn none and lost nine when away from home comforts. They are also without a win in their last three matches, although one of those was against Madrid, where they put up a decent fight.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.3 with Coral.
Levante v Villarreal, Sunday 1100
The early morning on Sunday has over-achievers Levante taking on this seasons major disappointments Villarreal in Valencia. Levante started off the season brilliantly, and in the absence of any side outside of the top three putting together a run of wins, they have held on at the top of the table to fight for European football. This has been in the main down to that early run, and them being very hard to beat at home. Their home record reads won seven, drawn three and lost three, they have scored twenty three and only conceded fourteen in those matches too. In a league with Real and Barca present that lack of conceding is no mean feat.
As mentioned Villarreal have been a huge disappointment this time out. They were only ever a very small club in the grand scheme of things, propped up by a local businessman to push them ahead of the other also rans. The scouting network that they set up in South America reaped huge rewards, as did taking big club failures like Forlan and Rossi from Man Utd and giving them the confidence to play again. Since the departure of Manuel Pellegrini as manager this has all come crashing down and they are a shadow of the side they were. They have been particulalrly poor away with only one win all season, with three draws and nine losses. I can't back them here.
Back Levante at 2.5 with Stan James.
Bologna v Chievo, Sunday 1400
Italy is fast approaching end game and we have two sides here who are fairly comfortably mired in mid-table. Bologna have, however, pushed on of late as they were in danger of falling into relegation trouble. They have only lost one of the last eleven, and that was to a very good Udinese side. This run has included a draw with Juventus as well as a resounding 3-0 win away at Inter Milan. Their bad start has their home and away form looking mixed taken on a whole season basis, but they are currently one of the hardest sides to beat in Serie A. The likes of Alessandro Diamanti who looked completely out of his depth at West Ham has been reborn as a flair forward who chips in with more than a fair share of goals.
Chievo have slipped back into regular mid-table finishes after almost a decade of over-achieving. The Flying Donkeys (Best. Nickname. Ever) have proven themselves to be worthy of a place in Serie A, although they are rarely pretty in getting results. They are yet another side who rely upon their small stadium giving them an advantage when other larger sides come to town, and this season that has again been the case. However comma away from home their defence can go missing. They have played fourteen away and won three, drawn four and lost seven. All this whilst scoring only eleven and conceding twenty two.
Back Bologna at 2.3 with William Hill.
Udinese v Napoli, Sunday 1945
The two sides that have given the big boys most to fear this season meet on Sunday night in Serie A in Udine. Udinese were right up with AC Milan for the vast majority of the season, but recently they have not been on a great run and have fallen behind the unbeaten Juventus as well as Lazio and Napoli. Their amazing home form has still been good, but away they have begun to struggle for the goals that bring wins. They are also now through to the Quarter Finals of the Europa League and that may well mean they take their eye off the ball in the weeks to come. As they are still fighting for a lucrative Champions League place though we will have to see how that pans out.
Napoli were eliminated from the Champions League themselves this weak after a lacklustre display saw them losing out to Chelsea in extra time. They have generally been particularly good away from home in Europe this season as their counter attacking game is suited to it, but the absence of Maggio in particular seemed to hurt them. This could possibly be as he is more often than not the man that links the flat centre of the park to the rampaging forwards and full backs. Without this middle man, they did look slightly disjointed. He will again be missing this match so I am tempted by longish odds on the home side.
Back Udinese at 2.62 with BetVictor.
Nurnberg v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1430
Only one pick from the Bundesliga this weekend I'm afraid. I'm going to get involved in this one mostly due to Wolfsburg's horrendous away form this season. Nurnberg themselves have been a surprise to many watchers as they sit in the top half of the table after many would have expected them to struggle, if not necessarily get involved in the relegation fight. Where they have differed from many sides below them is in actually winning matches as opposed to scraping draws. Nine wins from all matches this season has left them looking down on a number of sides. At home they go five wins, three draws and four losses so far with fifteen both scored and conceded. This lack of goals is the reason they have not moved higher up the table. They often contest tight matches so the other team always has a chance to nick victory too.
Wolfsburg's away form has been terrible, as mentioned before. They have a solitary win from thirteen away and only three draws and nine defeats. They have also conceded a raft of goals to leave them with only nine in the For column and an appalling thirty one in the Against. This record has not looked like abating recently sadly for them, in their last four away matches they have only scored one and conceded ten. They did pick up a draw, but it was against a very poor Kaiserslautern side.
Back Nurnberg at 2.1 with Coral.
Fenerbahce v Galatasaray, Saturday 1800
The Big One! The Istanbul derby between the two most successful sides in the history of the Super Lig takes place this Saturday evening and it is sure to be combustible. The tow sides hate each other and they are again vying for the top spot in the table as we approach the new end of season play-offs in Turkey. Fener have fallen behind in the race recently after spending big in January to make amends for a summer mostly spent battling allegations of match fixing, with have since been found to be true. They can also point to not losing the home derby since 1999 as a reason to be excited, but Gala are as good as they've been in many a year.
As mentioned Gala have recently streaked ahead at the peak of the Super Lig to go nine points clear of Fener. They have only lost three matches all season, and only one of those away from home. The derby is a completely different matter though. There can be guaranteed to be some strange decisions, players losing their heads to impress the fans and plenty of goals if most matches between the top sides this season are anything to go by. Gala and Fener both have some awesome firepower, and you can guarantee there will be goals as the defences simply are not up to the same standard.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.5 with SportingBet.
Also back Miroslav Stoch To Score Anytime at 2.95 with SportingBet.
Friday, 16 March 2012
Friday, 9 March 2012
The Weekend Starts Here...
Well, once again we find ourselves at the weekend, assessing the merits of all the matches and betting accordingly. Last weekend ended up in a small loss unfortunately, but those who follow @TopTopTips on the Twitter will have boosted the coffers with a few midweek winners.
Whilst on the subject of midweek football, we should mention Arsenal's 'brave' comeback against AC Milan. One of the words I always cringe when seeing in football parlance is 'brave'. Almost coming back from 4-0 down has absolutely nothing to do with bravery, what exactly is there to be scared of? Anyway, Arsenal managed to start like a train and were 3-0 up at half time with many fans and neutrals willing one of the most impressive turnarounds in years. However, once Alex Oxade-Chamberlain faded due to injury, sadly so did the Gunners. You could look at this as a positive in that he is already so important, or as a negative as Arsenal really shouldn't be relying on someone so young and raw to start any good play for them. The two Manchester clubs also lost in their Europa League first legs, with United by far the bigger losers. City lost to Sporting Lisbon 1-0 in Lisbon and showed enough to suggest they should breeze the second leg. United were beaten 2-3 at home by Athletic Bilbao, and they looked all at sea defensively for long periods. Once again the midfield was completely useless against a team willing to press and Fernando Llorente had a predictably easy time up against United's centre halves. It is going to be hard for United to turn this one round.
Music comes from I Am The Avalanche with I'll Be Back Around.
Bolton v QPR, Saturday 1245
It might not seem like it is that stage yet, but we are fast approaching the business end of the season all round Europe. In the Premier League most sides now have 11 matches left to play. Bolton have been abject for the majority of this season so far, and it seems strange that the fans have not been more vocal about this. It seems coming across as a nice guy, and preaching about playing 'the right way' can buy you more time in the hotseat. Owen Coyle started his life at the Trotter's well and has made some very astute loan signings to bolster his squad in the past, but this season this has not happened. The problem is obviously quality, but a look at their form table shows that they have won as many matches as Aston Villa, but have lost four more than any other side in the division. They have only two draws to their name.
QPR sacked Neil Warnock over xmas and installed Mark Hughes with the intention of arresting a worrying slide of poor results. So far this has not happened. Although Hughes was given considerably more money than most of the league's managers over January, the side has not gotten perceivably better yet. The likes of Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora have proven themselves at this level before, but for whatever reason they are not firing under Hughes yet. It is goals they are struggling for and with six of the current top seven left after this to play they could do with a win. However, I think the lack of goals may well haunt them again.
Back Bolton at 2.5 with William Hill.
Norwich City v Wigan, Sunday 1600
It is a measure of how far Norwich have come this season that they are odds on for this match against something of a Premier league stalwart in Wigan. They have featured heavily in this column throughout the season and have definitely given us all profit as the bookmakers were naturally cautious of a newly promoted side, giving punters decent returns. There is no secret to their success really, they're a well organised side who will put in the hard yards and get physical when necessary. Players like Grant Holt and Steve Morison who have risen from much lower levels have given Premier League defenders a torrid time with their approach. The likes of John Ruddy in goal have also recently received much deserved calls from some quarters for England recognition (he's a Cambridge United lad, don't you know!).
Wigan look like they will finally plunge back out of the Premier League this season, and personally I can't say I'll mourn their disappearance. Many will tell you Roberto Martinez has them playing good stuff and should be commended for sticking to his footballing principles, but I completely disagree. Playing pretty triangles occasionally and getting absolutely nowhere with it is bad management. I am not suggesting Big Sam era Bolton, but at least that got wins and kept Bolton in the league. There are some good footballers in the Wigan ranks, but they need help from some more direct players at times, particularly a striker who can actually score. I get the impression Martinez would turn his nose up at Grant Holt, and that says everything for me.
Back Norwich at 1.9 with Totesport.
Valencia v Mallorca, Sunday 1500
Valencia have once again tied up their 'best of the rest' tag in Spain, even having once again sold their best players to service their huge debt. Those who accuse Spain of being just like the SPL are somewhat missing the point I think. Whilst Barcelona and Madrid are miles better than the rest of the Primera, they would also be miles better whichever European league you dropped them in to. If you look at the European competitions this season teams like Valencia and Athletic Bilbao have shown they can compete with the best the continent has to offer, except the big two in Spain. The only problem they sometimes have can be a mid-season lull as it all becomes too easy and they realise they're stuck in third again. They will want to keep the winning habit going now though, as they are bidding for Europa League glory as well as consolidating that third spot in La Liga.
Mallorca have been struggling on limply for a couple of seasons now. They pick up just enough wins at home to scrape above the basement, but they are nowhere near climbing any higher than that. They are yet another club that has suffered from the lopsided TV money sharing in Spain that sees Barca and Real grab almost 80% I believe and therefore leaves everyone else fighting for scraps. Without a rich backer this means clubs like Mallorca almost have to get into debt to compete. They have only scored eight in twelve whilst conceding eighteen this season away from home so Valencia should do this comfortably.
Back Valencia -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Catania v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
One team who has exceeded expectations in Serie A this season is Catania. They were in the bottom half of the division last season and dispensed with their coach to appoint the untried Vincenzo Montella to manage this time out. Many will remember him from his successful playing days at Roma, and a short loan spell at Fulham in the twilight of his career. He has made them a very tidy little side though, tough to beat and with a decent forward line too. At home they have won six, drawn four and lost only two. And they have also scored a healthy eighteen whilst only conceding half that. They are also on the back of one loss in the past eight, although there has been a few draws.
Fiorentina have not kicked on as many of their fans would have hoped after their quick return to the highest level following their demotion for bankruptcy. They have qualified for Europe in the past, but have looked like even that is too much for them the past two seasons. They have certainly missed the injured Stefan Jovetic during his lengthy absences. They have been particularly poor away from home with only a solitary win from thirteen with five draws and seven losses. They have failed to win in five away matches recently.
Back Catania at 2.15 with Ladbrokes.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
A side who impressed most neutrals, but have failed to get going this year are Mainz in Germany's Bundesliga. They stalled for a long time and have recently kick started after the return of their talisman of years gone by, Mohamed Zidan. The Egyptian is a class act who has also strangely struggled whenever he has been away from Mainz. This is his third spell and naturally he is a huge fan favourite. He has scored in all five of the matches he has played in so far on this loan. They don't draw many anyway, with five wins and five losses and two draws at home so far, matches tend to be decided with a win for either side. They have also only lost once since Zidan's return, and that was to table topping Dortmund.
Nurnberg have been almost the opposite of Mainz in that they have slightly exceeded expectations to sit in the top half currently. The issue they have had has been scoring goals with any regularity, as a For column reading only twenty three in twenty four in a high scoring division like the Bundesliga will attest to. They have only drawn once away from home all season with four wins and seven losses the other results. They are on a three match winning streak, but I think Mainz have enough to end that on Saturday afternoon.
Back Mainz 05 at 2.1 with Boylesports.
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
After the Steve McClaren experiment ended last season Wolfsburg have settled back into being a mid-table side who could push for Europe given the opportunity. Obviously it was not that long ago they won the Bundesliga, but that was a bit of a freak season when players, form and others failings all combined to give them a shot, which they took. They play in the Volkswagen Arena and that has always been a bit of a fortress for them. This season has seen this continue with seven wins, two draws and only three losses at home all season. They have scored nineteen and conceded thirteen to somewhat mask their truly horrendous away record.
Leverkusen would have hoped to have given Barcelona a harder match in midweek, and would have been full of confidence after beating Bayern Munich last weekend in the league. However comma this did not happen. Lionel Messi once again showed why he probably is the best player the world has ever seen and scored five goals. For stats fans that is more in one match than Torres has in his entire Chelsea career so far. Leverkusen therefore do have only the league left to play for, but this defeat may well take a bit of getting over. They have found it harder going away and it should be a chance for Wolfsburg to capitalise.
Back Wolfsburg Draw No Bet at 2.2 with BlueSq.
Manisaspor v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Sunday 1100
No side has faded from a good start quite like Manisaspor. In the early stages they sat as high as fourth in the table after some very good home performances, they now lie second bottom only to the dreadful Ankaragucu who have already been relegated. They have not won at home since November and have also only won one match since the winter break. They are possibly the worst side in the Super Lig at present. They have managed to concede even more at home with twenty than the eighteen they've conceded away and look doomed.
Mersin did not start too well, but have found their feet enough to now be comfortably safe from the threat of relegation. What is very strange is that this is on the back of excellent away form. In the Super Lig it is nearly always home form which contributes most of a sides points, but Mersin are bucking this trend. They have won an amazing seven from fourteen away, which is comfortably more than all but table topping Galatasaray. They have to be backed for this.
Back Mersin Idman Yurdu at 3.1 with SportingBet.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Sunday 1700
Last up this week is column regulars Bursa travelling to Eskisehirspor. Eski were last seasons over-achievers due mainly to superior home form and an uncanny ability to eke out tight wins. They are incredibly well drilled and will very rarely open up to play at all. This means they can keep the scores level for long periods and wait for an opportunity to score from an opposition mistake or a set-piece. This is backed up by only conceding a very good twenty six in twenty nine matches home and away split evenly between the two. They also thrashed Ankaragucu last week on the back of a great 2-1 win against Fenerbahce the week before.
Bursa have recently improved to move steadily into the top half of the table. However, their poor first half of the season has left them with too much to do for a European qualifying spot. They have moved back up to eighth spot, but it is their away form that has been the biggest concern. They have played thirteen away and only won four, drawn four and lost five so far. They have also conceded a whopping twenty in those matches to leave themselves with far too much to do to get back on level terms when travelling.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.55 at SportingBet.
Whilst on the subject of midweek football, we should mention Arsenal's 'brave' comeback against AC Milan. One of the words I always cringe when seeing in football parlance is 'brave'. Almost coming back from 4-0 down has absolutely nothing to do with bravery, what exactly is there to be scared of? Anyway, Arsenal managed to start like a train and were 3-0 up at half time with many fans and neutrals willing one of the most impressive turnarounds in years. However, once Alex Oxade-Chamberlain faded due to injury, sadly so did the Gunners. You could look at this as a positive in that he is already so important, or as a negative as Arsenal really shouldn't be relying on someone so young and raw to start any good play for them. The two Manchester clubs also lost in their Europa League first legs, with United by far the bigger losers. City lost to Sporting Lisbon 1-0 in Lisbon and showed enough to suggest they should breeze the second leg. United were beaten 2-3 at home by Athletic Bilbao, and they looked all at sea defensively for long periods. Once again the midfield was completely useless against a team willing to press and Fernando Llorente had a predictably easy time up against United's centre halves. It is going to be hard for United to turn this one round.
Music comes from I Am The Avalanche with I'll Be Back Around.
Bolton v QPR, Saturday 1245
It might not seem like it is that stage yet, but we are fast approaching the business end of the season all round Europe. In the Premier League most sides now have 11 matches left to play. Bolton have been abject for the majority of this season so far, and it seems strange that the fans have not been more vocal about this. It seems coming across as a nice guy, and preaching about playing 'the right way' can buy you more time in the hotseat. Owen Coyle started his life at the Trotter's well and has made some very astute loan signings to bolster his squad in the past, but this season this has not happened. The problem is obviously quality, but a look at their form table shows that they have won as many matches as Aston Villa, but have lost four more than any other side in the division. They have only two draws to their name.
QPR sacked Neil Warnock over xmas and installed Mark Hughes with the intention of arresting a worrying slide of poor results. So far this has not happened. Although Hughes was given considerably more money than most of the league's managers over January, the side has not gotten perceivably better yet. The likes of Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora have proven themselves at this level before, but for whatever reason they are not firing under Hughes yet. It is goals they are struggling for and with six of the current top seven left after this to play they could do with a win. However, I think the lack of goals may well haunt them again.
Back Bolton at 2.5 with William Hill.
Norwich City v Wigan, Sunday 1600
It is a measure of how far Norwich have come this season that they are odds on for this match against something of a Premier league stalwart in Wigan. They have featured heavily in this column throughout the season and have definitely given us all profit as the bookmakers were naturally cautious of a newly promoted side, giving punters decent returns. There is no secret to their success really, they're a well organised side who will put in the hard yards and get physical when necessary. Players like Grant Holt and Steve Morison who have risen from much lower levels have given Premier League defenders a torrid time with their approach. The likes of John Ruddy in goal have also recently received much deserved calls from some quarters for England recognition (he's a Cambridge United lad, don't you know!).
Wigan look like they will finally plunge back out of the Premier League this season, and personally I can't say I'll mourn their disappearance. Many will tell you Roberto Martinez has them playing good stuff and should be commended for sticking to his footballing principles, but I completely disagree. Playing pretty triangles occasionally and getting absolutely nowhere with it is bad management. I am not suggesting Big Sam era Bolton, but at least that got wins and kept Bolton in the league. There are some good footballers in the Wigan ranks, but they need help from some more direct players at times, particularly a striker who can actually score. I get the impression Martinez would turn his nose up at Grant Holt, and that says everything for me.
Back Norwich at 1.9 with Totesport.
Valencia v Mallorca, Sunday 1500
Valencia have once again tied up their 'best of the rest' tag in Spain, even having once again sold their best players to service their huge debt. Those who accuse Spain of being just like the SPL are somewhat missing the point I think. Whilst Barcelona and Madrid are miles better than the rest of the Primera, they would also be miles better whichever European league you dropped them in to. If you look at the European competitions this season teams like Valencia and Athletic Bilbao have shown they can compete with the best the continent has to offer, except the big two in Spain. The only problem they sometimes have can be a mid-season lull as it all becomes too easy and they realise they're stuck in third again. They will want to keep the winning habit going now though, as they are bidding for Europa League glory as well as consolidating that third spot in La Liga.
Mallorca have been struggling on limply for a couple of seasons now. They pick up just enough wins at home to scrape above the basement, but they are nowhere near climbing any higher than that. They are yet another club that has suffered from the lopsided TV money sharing in Spain that sees Barca and Real grab almost 80% I believe and therefore leaves everyone else fighting for scraps. Without a rich backer this means clubs like Mallorca almost have to get into debt to compete. They have only scored eight in twelve whilst conceding eighteen this season away from home so Valencia should do this comfortably.
Back Valencia -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Catania v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
One team who has exceeded expectations in Serie A this season is Catania. They were in the bottom half of the division last season and dispensed with their coach to appoint the untried Vincenzo Montella to manage this time out. Many will remember him from his successful playing days at Roma, and a short loan spell at Fulham in the twilight of his career. He has made them a very tidy little side though, tough to beat and with a decent forward line too. At home they have won six, drawn four and lost only two. And they have also scored a healthy eighteen whilst only conceding half that. They are also on the back of one loss in the past eight, although there has been a few draws.
Fiorentina have not kicked on as many of their fans would have hoped after their quick return to the highest level following their demotion for bankruptcy. They have qualified for Europe in the past, but have looked like even that is too much for them the past two seasons. They have certainly missed the injured Stefan Jovetic during his lengthy absences. They have been particularly poor away from home with only a solitary win from thirteen with five draws and seven losses. They have failed to win in five away matches recently.
Back Catania at 2.15 with Ladbrokes.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
A side who impressed most neutrals, but have failed to get going this year are Mainz in Germany's Bundesliga. They stalled for a long time and have recently kick started after the return of their talisman of years gone by, Mohamed Zidan. The Egyptian is a class act who has also strangely struggled whenever he has been away from Mainz. This is his third spell and naturally he is a huge fan favourite. He has scored in all five of the matches he has played in so far on this loan. They don't draw many anyway, with five wins and five losses and two draws at home so far, matches tend to be decided with a win for either side. They have also only lost once since Zidan's return, and that was to table topping Dortmund.
Nurnberg have been almost the opposite of Mainz in that they have slightly exceeded expectations to sit in the top half currently. The issue they have had has been scoring goals with any regularity, as a For column reading only twenty three in twenty four in a high scoring division like the Bundesliga will attest to. They have only drawn once away from home all season with four wins and seven losses the other results. They are on a three match winning streak, but I think Mainz have enough to end that on Saturday afternoon.
Back Mainz 05 at 2.1 with Boylesports.
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
After the Steve McClaren experiment ended last season Wolfsburg have settled back into being a mid-table side who could push for Europe given the opportunity. Obviously it was not that long ago they won the Bundesliga, but that was a bit of a freak season when players, form and others failings all combined to give them a shot, which they took. They play in the Volkswagen Arena and that has always been a bit of a fortress for them. This season has seen this continue with seven wins, two draws and only three losses at home all season. They have scored nineteen and conceded thirteen to somewhat mask their truly horrendous away record.
Leverkusen would have hoped to have given Barcelona a harder match in midweek, and would have been full of confidence after beating Bayern Munich last weekend in the league. However comma this did not happen. Lionel Messi once again showed why he probably is the best player the world has ever seen and scored five goals. For stats fans that is more in one match than Torres has in his entire Chelsea career so far. Leverkusen therefore do have only the league left to play for, but this defeat may well take a bit of getting over. They have found it harder going away and it should be a chance for Wolfsburg to capitalise.
Back Wolfsburg Draw No Bet at 2.2 with BlueSq.
Manisaspor v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Sunday 1100
No side has faded from a good start quite like Manisaspor. In the early stages they sat as high as fourth in the table after some very good home performances, they now lie second bottom only to the dreadful Ankaragucu who have already been relegated. They have not won at home since November and have also only won one match since the winter break. They are possibly the worst side in the Super Lig at present. They have managed to concede even more at home with twenty than the eighteen they've conceded away and look doomed.
Mersin did not start too well, but have found their feet enough to now be comfortably safe from the threat of relegation. What is very strange is that this is on the back of excellent away form. In the Super Lig it is nearly always home form which contributes most of a sides points, but Mersin are bucking this trend. They have won an amazing seven from fourteen away, which is comfortably more than all but table topping Galatasaray. They have to be backed for this.
Back Mersin Idman Yurdu at 3.1 with SportingBet.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Sunday 1700
Last up this week is column regulars Bursa travelling to Eskisehirspor. Eski were last seasons over-achievers due mainly to superior home form and an uncanny ability to eke out tight wins. They are incredibly well drilled and will very rarely open up to play at all. This means they can keep the scores level for long periods and wait for an opportunity to score from an opposition mistake or a set-piece. This is backed up by only conceding a very good twenty six in twenty nine matches home and away split evenly between the two. They also thrashed Ankaragucu last week on the back of a great 2-1 win against Fenerbahce the week before.
Bursa have recently improved to move steadily into the top half of the table. However, their poor first half of the season has left them with too much to do for a European qualifying spot. They have moved back up to eighth spot, but it is their away form that has been the biggest concern. They have played thirteen away and only won four, drawn four and lost five so far. They have also conceded a whopping twenty in those matches to leave themselves with far too much to do to get back on level terms when travelling.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.55 at SportingBet.
Thursday, 1 March 2012
The Early Bird Etc...
Some cracking matches last weekend for the viewer, as well as a profitable one for followers. I didn't post any midweek tips as I'm no gambler on friendlies myself. Always hard to evaluate a non-competitive match, made even harder by withdrawals from squads and pressure from clubs not to tire players out.
As far as last weekend goes the most interesting match was definitely the North London derby between Arsenal and Spurs at The Emirates. Arsenal looked like their horrendous run was going to continue when they went 2-0 down before half time, but rallied to make it 2-2 at the break before going on to win 5-2. Some may have noticed a slight softening towards Harry Redknapp of late by myself, and I do still think he may well coax slightly more out of England's players, but there is something I fell has not been widely publicised and is a major mark against him. Namely, it is the fact that in all the success Spurs have had, they have rarely won the matches against the very best sides in the league. There is nothing wrong with beating everyone you really should, but both Eriksson and Capello did that. What the media and many seem to be calling for is a manager who can beat the best sides when put up against them, and Redknapp does not seem to have that in his resume. I foresee a slightly improved spirit when he assumes the role, but I don't see any significant progress towards winning a tournament.
Music comes from Mixtapes with And If We Both Fail?
Blackburn v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Two teams who have their own fans against them at present. Venky's moved to assure Rovers fans that no more key players would be sold this week, convenient really as the transfer window is shut so they couldn't sell them anyway. I have read that there is another protest about their ownership this weekend, and they can hardly be blamed. Saying this it does seem that the players and Steve Kean are trying their very best in very difficult circumstances and are getting some good results. The win against Man Utd over xmas being the standout result. They do have good attackers, and in Yakubu they have a striker many sides would take as a first choice, but the defence often lets them down. If they are to survive the drop to the Championship then they need to win these sorts of games.
Villa fans have a well earned reputation as whingers, but surely everyone can understand their moans this season as the unwanted Alex McCleish presides over some awful football, which isn't even grinding out results. They are simply horrendous to watch and with Darren Bent now missing and Charles N'Zogbia ostracised from the first team things could get worse yet. There is no invention to their play and McCleish seems happy to play out most of the ninety minutes without conceding before looking for a late clincher. Not what the fans consider their money's worth, and the calls for his head will only increase of they continue to hover dangerously close to the relegation spots.
Back Blackburn Rovers at 2.5 on Betfair.
Wigan v Swansea, Saturday 1500
Whilst we're on the subject of sides in trouble, Wigan are currently bottom of the table and are really in danger of being cut adrift if things don't improve. The source of their problems lies in the fact that they do not have a reliable regular goalscorer. Hugo Rodallega is nominally their centre forward, but he is more of a creator than a predator and they are struggling to get ahead in games due to this lack of cutting edge. Those that support manager Roberto Martinez will point to the fact that he gets the team playing 'properly', but it will also have to be accepted that this refusal to resort to blunter tactics may well see them finally drop out of the top division.
Under Brendan Rodgers Swansea have also been playing football on the floor and have picked up many plaudits for doing so this season. They are similar to Barcelona in that they don't have defenders who you would necessarily pick out as brilliant by any means, but the rest of the side use possession to keep the threat away and then press as a team when they want the ball back. When you add this to the attacking threat of Scott Sinclair's pace, Danny Graham's goal threat and loanee Gylffi Sigurdsson's flair and it is a potent mix. Much better sides than Wigan have fallen to the Swans and I can see them getting something here.
Back Swansea Draw No Bet at 2.2 with Ladbrokes.
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad, Sunday 1500
Bilbao have appeared numerous times in this column so far this season, and I still think they can offer good value when pitted against the right sides. They have always been a tough side to beat at home and that has slightly reduced this season, and it's something Marcelo Bielsa will be keen to reinstate. They certainly have some brilliant players in the likes of Iker Muniain and this summers major European target Javi Martinez. Most of the big sides in Europe have apparently been casting their eyes over the physically impressive specimen who can play equally adeptly in central midfield or central defence and is a natural leader. He shouldn't have any trouble getting his teammates fired up for the Basque derby though.
Sociedad have seemingly hovered around mid table for all of this season and look like they will end up there too. Their home record is good, but they have been let down away from home. They have only won three times in twelve matches away from home and have lost seven whilst only scoring twelve and conceding twenty two. In their last away match they were thrashed 4-1 by promoted Granada and again had a man sent off. They have been reduced to ten men on five occasions so far, and in the heat of this bitter rivalry I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again. They will struggle against Bilbao as it is, to lose a man would really set them back.
Back Athletic BIlbao -1.0 at 2.11 at BetVictor.
Udinese v Atalanta, Sunday 1400
One of my favourite sides to back this year have been Udinese, and in particular when they are at home. They have only lost once at home all season and also only drawn twice. All this whilst scoring twenty three goals to give them an almost two a game average and only conceding seven. This has led me to handicapping them on occasion, especially against poor away sides or low scorers. The goals of Antonio Di Natale continue to flow and after the international break he will have had plenty of rest and be raring to go. After a slip up to Fiorentina compounded by defeat at home by Milan, they have turned things round with a draw and then a 3-1 away victory over the greatly improved Bologna last time out to have them once again believing in a title push.
Atalanta look to be safe from relegation this season and that is mostly down to their home form. They have only lost twice at home all season and in those thirteen matches the defence has held firm only conceding ten. However comma away from home they have been a mixed bag. They have won three, drawn five and lost for whilst conceding eighteen. It is this that will need to be improved upon if they are to push for the top half of the table. They will not relish a trip to Udinese and I think they will struggle.
Back Udinese -0.5 at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Hannover 96 v Augsburg, Saturday 1430
One of last seasons surprise sides in the Bundesliga was Hannover and they have impressed again this season, just not quite as regularly. They play a pressing game which is maintained by having lots of young, committed players who are willing to do the running necessary to make these tactics work. They have been very impressive at home so afr and stand still unbeaten after eleven home matches. In these they have scored nineteen and conceded twelve. Since the xmas break they have only been defeated once home or away and that was in a rather unlucky 3-1 loss to top of the table Dortmund. Before that they had drawn two and won three out of five, with two wins and a draw at home. They aim to keep it tight at the back in the main and look to nick the odd goal. I think they are capable of more in this though.
Augsburg came back to the Bundesliga over the summer and have looked a little out of their depth for long periods. They lie fourth from bottom and a lot of that can be put down to not scoring enough, and their dreadful away form. This away record reads won one, drawn four and lost seven whilst only scoring ten, but conceding twenty four. They did have a good win last time out, but it was against the equally poor Hertha Berlin who still haven't properly recovered from Markus Babbel's resignation.
Back Hannover 96 -1.0 at 2.3 with Bet365.
Nurnberg v Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430
Nurnberg have been mid table most of the season and look to be well clear of relegation, but too far away from the summit to have any European aspirations. They do have a fairly solid side, but they lack creativity and a goal threat and it stops them from winning as many as they'd like to. At home they have four wins, three draws and four losses and have scored fourteen whilst conceding fifteen. In fact, in twenty three matches home and away they have only scored twenty two goals, which is very poor by Bundesliga standards.
Another column favourite are Monchengladbach and they appear again here. I do still think they are being underestimated by odds compilers at present. They have proven over almost two thirds of the season that they deserve to be considered alongside Bayern and Dortmund, but are always much longer prices. They don't score loads, but they have got thirty seven in twenty three matches due to the quality of attackers like Marco Reus. It is the goals against column that reveal their biggest strength. In those twenty three matches they have only conceded fourteen. Away from home they don't do draws, only one so far with six wins and four losses. They are also still unbeaten since the xmas break and I think it is well worth backing them to triumph here.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.5 with BetVictor.
Fenerbahce v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1700
Fener splashed the cash over the winter break to attempt to claw back the lead city rivals Galatasaray had built and so far it is looking further away than ever. They now trail by nine points and again failed to win last weekend to put the pressure on. They may well have spent big, but they have bought lots of attackers when a more sensible option might have been to tighten up a very leaky defence. They have not won away since xmas and have only kept a clean sheet in two of eleven matches since the break. They also seem to have trouble starting matches properly and have been behind at half time in six of those eleven recent matches.
Genclerbirligi have managed to stay in touch with the big boys and currently lie fifth, only behind Fener, Gala, Besiktas and Trabzon. This has largely been down to their forward with only three sides having scored more goals at this stage of the Super Lig. They take the same cavalier approach that has paid dividends for Sivasspor with most sides having poor defensive players they attack relentlessly in the hope that they will score more than the opposition. In their last six matches there have been over 3.5 goals in four and I wouldn't bet against it again here.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.62 with Paddy Power.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
The big game over the weekend in the Super Lig sees giants Besiktas take on the biggest side from outside of Istanbul Trabzonspor at home. Besiktas were very unfortunate to lose an end to end encounter with Gala last Sunday that ended 3-2 to Gala after a 92nd minute winner. The black and whites raised their game and showed why Fenerbahce should be worried more about being caught by Besiktas than catching Gala. Whilst they have been fallible away from home, they have a great record in Istanbul. They have played fourteen at home winning nine, drawing three and only losing twice. They have also scored twenty four and conceded fourteen.
Trabzonspor are now out of Europe having been eliminated by PSV and have possibly left it too late to mount a proper title assault with Gala so far ahead. They have again relied heavily upon the goals of star forward Yilmaz and some good home form to keep them in fourth spot in the table. They have seemed distracted recently and have uncharacteristically shipped a lot of goals. They have only won one of the last four and have conceded nine in those matches, including a dreadful home 2-3 defeat by Mersin Idman last weekend. They would have wanted an easier fixture this weekend.
Back Besiktas at 2.3 with Stan James.
As far as last weekend goes the most interesting match was definitely the North London derby between Arsenal and Spurs at The Emirates. Arsenal looked like their horrendous run was going to continue when they went 2-0 down before half time, but rallied to make it 2-2 at the break before going on to win 5-2. Some may have noticed a slight softening towards Harry Redknapp of late by myself, and I do still think he may well coax slightly more out of England's players, but there is something I fell has not been widely publicised and is a major mark against him. Namely, it is the fact that in all the success Spurs have had, they have rarely won the matches against the very best sides in the league. There is nothing wrong with beating everyone you really should, but both Eriksson and Capello did that. What the media and many seem to be calling for is a manager who can beat the best sides when put up against them, and Redknapp does not seem to have that in his resume. I foresee a slightly improved spirit when he assumes the role, but I don't see any significant progress towards winning a tournament.
Music comes from Mixtapes with And If We Both Fail?
Blackburn v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Two teams who have their own fans against them at present. Venky's moved to assure Rovers fans that no more key players would be sold this week, convenient really as the transfer window is shut so they couldn't sell them anyway. I have read that there is another protest about their ownership this weekend, and they can hardly be blamed. Saying this it does seem that the players and Steve Kean are trying their very best in very difficult circumstances and are getting some good results. The win against Man Utd over xmas being the standout result. They do have good attackers, and in Yakubu they have a striker many sides would take as a first choice, but the defence often lets them down. If they are to survive the drop to the Championship then they need to win these sorts of games.
Villa fans have a well earned reputation as whingers, but surely everyone can understand their moans this season as the unwanted Alex McCleish presides over some awful football, which isn't even grinding out results. They are simply horrendous to watch and with Darren Bent now missing and Charles N'Zogbia ostracised from the first team things could get worse yet. There is no invention to their play and McCleish seems happy to play out most of the ninety minutes without conceding before looking for a late clincher. Not what the fans consider their money's worth, and the calls for his head will only increase of they continue to hover dangerously close to the relegation spots.
Back Blackburn Rovers at 2.5 on Betfair.
Wigan v Swansea, Saturday 1500
Whilst we're on the subject of sides in trouble, Wigan are currently bottom of the table and are really in danger of being cut adrift if things don't improve. The source of their problems lies in the fact that they do not have a reliable regular goalscorer. Hugo Rodallega is nominally their centre forward, but he is more of a creator than a predator and they are struggling to get ahead in games due to this lack of cutting edge. Those that support manager Roberto Martinez will point to the fact that he gets the team playing 'properly', but it will also have to be accepted that this refusal to resort to blunter tactics may well see them finally drop out of the top division.
Under Brendan Rodgers Swansea have also been playing football on the floor and have picked up many plaudits for doing so this season. They are similar to Barcelona in that they don't have defenders who you would necessarily pick out as brilliant by any means, but the rest of the side use possession to keep the threat away and then press as a team when they want the ball back. When you add this to the attacking threat of Scott Sinclair's pace, Danny Graham's goal threat and loanee Gylffi Sigurdsson's flair and it is a potent mix. Much better sides than Wigan have fallen to the Swans and I can see them getting something here.
Back Swansea Draw No Bet at 2.2 with Ladbrokes.
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad, Sunday 1500
Bilbao have appeared numerous times in this column so far this season, and I still think they can offer good value when pitted against the right sides. They have always been a tough side to beat at home and that has slightly reduced this season, and it's something Marcelo Bielsa will be keen to reinstate. They certainly have some brilliant players in the likes of Iker Muniain and this summers major European target Javi Martinez. Most of the big sides in Europe have apparently been casting their eyes over the physically impressive specimen who can play equally adeptly in central midfield or central defence and is a natural leader. He shouldn't have any trouble getting his teammates fired up for the Basque derby though.
Sociedad have seemingly hovered around mid table for all of this season and look like they will end up there too. Their home record is good, but they have been let down away from home. They have only won three times in twelve matches away from home and have lost seven whilst only scoring twelve and conceding twenty two. In their last away match they were thrashed 4-1 by promoted Granada and again had a man sent off. They have been reduced to ten men on five occasions so far, and in the heat of this bitter rivalry I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again. They will struggle against Bilbao as it is, to lose a man would really set them back.
Back Athletic BIlbao -1.0 at 2.11 at BetVictor.
Udinese v Atalanta, Sunday 1400
One of my favourite sides to back this year have been Udinese, and in particular when they are at home. They have only lost once at home all season and also only drawn twice. All this whilst scoring twenty three goals to give them an almost two a game average and only conceding seven. This has led me to handicapping them on occasion, especially against poor away sides or low scorers. The goals of Antonio Di Natale continue to flow and after the international break he will have had plenty of rest and be raring to go. After a slip up to Fiorentina compounded by defeat at home by Milan, they have turned things round with a draw and then a 3-1 away victory over the greatly improved Bologna last time out to have them once again believing in a title push.
Atalanta look to be safe from relegation this season and that is mostly down to their home form. They have only lost twice at home all season and in those thirteen matches the defence has held firm only conceding ten. However comma away from home they have been a mixed bag. They have won three, drawn five and lost for whilst conceding eighteen. It is this that will need to be improved upon if they are to push for the top half of the table. They will not relish a trip to Udinese and I think they will struggle.
Back Udinese -0.5 at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Hannover 96 v Augsburg, Saturday 1430
One of last seasons surprise sides in the Bundesliga was Hannover and they have impressed again this season, just not quite as regularly. They play a pressing game which is maintained by having lots of young, committed players who are willing to do the running necessary to make these tactics work. They have been very impressive at home so afr and stand still unbeaten after eleven home matches. In these they have scored nineteen and conceded twelve. Since the xmas break they have only been defeated once home or away and that was in a rather unlucky 3-1 loss to top of the table Dortmund. Before that they had drawn two and won three out of five, with two wins and a draw at home. They aim to keep it tight at the back in the main and look to nick the odd goal. I think they are capable of more in this though.
Augsburg came back to the Bundesliga over the summer and have looked a little out of their depth for long periods. They lie fourth from bottom and a lot of that can be put down to not scoring enough, and their dreadful away form. This away record reads won one, drawn four and lost seven whilst only scoring ten, but conceding twenty four. They did have a good win last time out, but it was against the equally poor Hertha Berlin who still haven't properly recovered from Markus Babbel's resignation.
Back Hannover 96 -1.0 at 2.3 with Bet365.
Nurnberg v Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430
Nurnberg have been mid table most of the season and look to be well clear of relegation, but too far away from the summit to have any European aspirations. They do have a fairly solid side, but they lack creativity and a goal threat and it stops them from winning as many as they'd like to. At home they have four wins, three draws and four losses and have scored fourteen whilst conceding fifteen. In fact, in twenty three matches home and away they have only scored twenty two goals, which is very poor by Bundesliga standards.
Another column favourite are Monchengladbach and they appear again here. I do still think they are being underestimated by odds compilers at present. They have proven over almost two thirds of the season that they deserve to be considered alongside Bayern and Dortmund, but are always much longer prices. They don't score loads, but they have got thirty seven in twenty three matches due to the quality of attackers like Marco Reus. It is the goals against column that reveal their biggest strength. In those twenty three matches they have only conceded fourteen. Away from home they don't do draws, only one so far with six wins and four losses. They are also still unbeaten since the xmas break and I think it is well worth backing them to triumph here.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.5 with BetVictor.
Fenerbahce v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1700
Fener splashed the cash over the winter break to attempt to claw back the lead city rivals Galatasaray had built and so far it is looking further away than ever. They now trail by nine points and again failed to win last weekend to put the pressure on. They may well have spent big, but they have bought lots of attackers when a more sensible option might have been to tighten up a very leaky defence. They have not won away since xmas and have only kept a clean sheet in two of eleven matches since the break. They also seem to have trouble starting matches properly and have been behind at half time in six of those eleven recent matches.
Genclerbirligi have managed to stay in touch with the big boys and currently lie fifth, only behind Fener, Gala, Besiktas and Trabzon. This has largely been down to their forward with only three sides having scored more goals at this stage of the Super Lig. They take the same cavalier approach that has paid dividends for Sivasspor with most sides having poor defensive players they attack relentlessly in the hope that they will score more than the opposition. In their last six matches there have been over 3.5 goals in four and I wouldn't bet against it again here.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.62 with Paddy Power.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
The big game over the weekend in the Super Lig sees giants Besiktas take on the biggest side from outside of Istanbul Trabzonspor at home. Besiktas were very unfortunate to lose an end to end encounter with Gala last Sunday that ended 3-2 to Gala after a 92nd minute winner. The black and whites raised their game and showed why Fenerbahce should be worried more about being caught by Besiktas than catching Gala. Whilst they have been fallible away from home, they have a great record in Istanbul. They have played fourteen at home winning nine, drawing three and only losing twice. They have also scored twenty four and conceded fourteen.
Trabzonspor are now out of Europe having been eliminated by PSV and have possibly left it too late to mount a proper title assault with Gala so far ahead. They have again relied heavily upon the goals of star forward Yilmaz and some good home form to keep them in fourth spot in the table. They have seemed distracted recently and have uncharacteristically shipped a lot of goals. They have only won one of the last four and have conceded nine in those matches, including a dreadful home 2-3 defeat by Mersin Idman last weekend. They would have wanted an easier fixture this weekend.
Back Besiktas at 2.3 with Stan James.
Friday, 24 February 2012
That Time Again...
Last weekend saw a very decent profit after a few weeks of either small losses or small wins keeping us ticking over. Those of you that also follow me on the Twitter, @TopTopTips, will also have seen me post three out of three winners in the midweek Champions League matches. These were advising backing Napoli, backing Marseille and laying Bayern Munich.
Talking of opposing Chelsea, they were very poor again for long spells of their match. The away goal keeps them in the tie, but with Napoli at their best on the counter attack it will take a lot to stop them scoring again at Stamford Bridge. After an early goal from one of their few players to shine this season in Juan Mata, Chelsea again failed to deal with an attack that was not short of movement or pace. In truth, the lack of John Terry would probably have meant very little against an attack such as Napoli's. He would have possibly added slightly more organisation, but his lack of pace would have left them exposed anyway. I will not be calling for Villas Boas head, as it's easy money laying them at the moment, but also because he is trying to correct the error of not looking to lower the age of the side for a number of years. He is also seemingly fighting against the old core of Lampard and Terry not being at all pleased with the fact they are becoming increasingly dispensable to the new manager.
Music comes from Junior Battles with Nostalgic at 23.
Newcastle v Wolves, Saturday 1500
Newcastle host Wolves this Saturday still without a manager. It is becoming very embarrassing for the side from Molineux with a host of managers turning them down and now having to appoint Big Mick's assistant on a full time basis for the remainder of the season. Newcastle, on the other hand, have recovered from a small blip before xmas to again make a surge for European football next season. They may not have a large squad, but the addition of Papiss Cisse gives them cover for their most important player, Demba Ba. The two can also play together, forming a strike partnership that is equal to many a 'bigger' club. You only have to look at Arsenal to see that. The midfield pairing of Yohann Cabaye and Cheik Tiote could also be argued to be the best outside of Man City's first choice pairing. The doubts surrounding Alan Pardew, and to some extent Mike Ashley, have subsided slightly for the Geordie Nation.
As mentioned, Wolves are in a right state. They have now appointed a man with no previous experience to try and guide currently the worse side in the division to safety. The goals have dried up and the defence has looked like they've never met before at times, poor Wayne Hennessey looks lost behind them. I fail to see how they can turn it around, particularly on the back of the 5-1 thrashing handed out by neighbours WBA last weekend in the Black Country Derby. They look headed for another spell in the Championship, and on the back of their performances, it's where they belong.
Back Newcastle United -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Paddy Power.
Man City v Blackburn, Saturday 1730
A comfortable victory over Porto in the Europa League sees Man City progress with little needless energy expended. We could also yet see the return of Carlos Tevez to the side if he regains match fitness after he finally apologised for his appallong behaviour against Bayern Munich earlier in the season. City again look to me like they are going to storm off with the Premier League. The return of Vincent Kompany steadies the defence, Yaya Toure returning from the AFCON sees the midfield given extra energy and purpose and Sergio Aguero looks like he's in a good place again. Even Edin Dzeko is notching the odd goal! They have been known to take a while to get going this season and have often added numerous late goals as against Porto in midweek.
Blackburn are not quite as bad as I have occasionally made out. The calls for the head of manager Steve Kean have become less in recent weeks as regardless of anything else, it is clear the players are playing for him. The blame for the catastrophic signings and poor PR is rightly being pushed towards the owners, Venky's, and this leaves a better atmosphere at Ewood Park. The rather big-boned Yakubu has seemingly also rediscovered his scoring touch this season and provides the goal threat many clubs strugging seem to miss. I still think they'll end up in trouble, but they might yet have enough to survive.
Back Second Half Most Goals at 2.1 with Stan James.
Real Betis v Getafe, Saturday 1700
From Spain this weekend we see Getafe travelling to one of the madder clubs in La Liga. Betis have always revelled in their image of being slightly eccentric and the fans take this to extremes in most matches. This does provide a good atmosphere for the home side too. Having re-ascended to the Primera this season Betis have been a bit up and down, which is the same of nearly every other club. At present they are in an 'up' phase with wins in their last two matches. The away win in Bilbao will particularly have given them a boost as it is a very hard place to get a positive result. The striker Castro also looks full of confidence and will fancy himself against Getafe's brittle defence.
Getafe have also had a topsy turvy season with home form being as good as it usually is, but away form letting them down a lot. In twelve away matches they have lost seven and conceded twenty two goals. Their home stadium is a compact bowl and often devoid of noise, it's eerie, and teams don't like the trip there. The chronic lack of investment and cost cutting sees them with a paper thin squad of players, and without that advantage they have at home, they can all too easily be taken apart away. They have also not win in three matches now.
Back Real Betis at 2.1 with Blue Square.
AC Milan v Juventus, Saturday 1945
A huge match in Serie A this weekend sees first place AC hosting second in the table Juve. We all saw what AC are capable of in the hiding they dished out to Arsenal last week in the Champions League. When players like Ibrahimovic and Robinho are fit and in the mood they are quite some prospect. Throw in the likes of the reborn Kevin Prince-Boateng and commanding Thiago Silva at central midfield and centre back respectively and you have a very good side. They have spent the majority of the season at the top of Serie A, and it is their strikeforce that has been the difference. They have scored forty eight goals in twenty four matches, which is very good in the ever stingy Italian leagues. They have only lost one of eleven at home and have also conceded a miserly five in that time.
Juventus were not expected to mount a title challenge this season, but Antonio Conte has fashioned them into a solid side capable of hanging in their in every match. They are still unbeaten in twenty three matches home and away and for them it is their defence that is key to that record. They have only conceded an amazing fourteen in that time, and only six of those away. This probably gives you an idea of Conte's tactics. It's safety first stuff, with the likes of Milos Krasic deemed surplus to requirements due to his lack of defensive nous. They will take a draw in this, and I think they may well get it.
Back the Draw at 3.25 with BetFred.
Napoli v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Another big match sees Inter travelling to the South to Naples. Napoli have again showed in Europe that their forward line should be feared by all, as Chelsea discovered this time. The front four of Cavani, Hamsik, Lavezzi and Gargano are amongst the best in world football now, possibly the best beyond Barca and Real in Spain. Their league form has tailed off a bit to leave them to far behind for a proper title push, but they will want to go for Champions League qualification again. Cavani has now scored in each of the last three matches after a short dry spell and will be looking forward to facing an Inter side who are struggling.
Early on after the appointment of Claudio Ranieri it looked like Inter had steadied the ship and could even have pushed for Champions League football again after a disastrous start to their season. However comma that hope has now dissipated completely. They have fallen to seventh after failing to win in five league matches, as well as losing in the Copa Italia and also midweek in the Champions League. Ranieri must be feeling the pressure, and it looks like the problems can be traced to Sneijder's return to the side. The Dutchman is some player, but the thing Inter had found was a work ethic and lack of stars initially under Ranieri, and his reinstatement to the side has disrupted that. I fail to see how to solve this without a huge fall-out.
Back Napoli at 1.9 with Wiliam Hill.
Samsunspor v Bursaspor, Saturday 1400
First up in the Turkish Super Lig is struggling Samsunspor hosting Bursaspor. Samsun started the season horribly and are still suffering for it being perched above only the truly appalling Anakragucu. But, recently there have been signs they may well get on a run and pull clear of danger. This is mainly due to the inspired signing of striker Theofanis Gekas over the winter break. He may well resemble a homeless man, but he has scored goals wherever his career has taken him, and that has continued so far in Turkey. Since his arrival seven matches ago, Samsun have only lost twice. This run has also included the stunning 3-1 win over Fenerbahce and a confidence boosting 3-0 win over Ankara last weekend.
Bursaspor have featured numerous times this season as their fall from the top of the table has played out. They spent a lot of money to reach the summit, and now the investing has slowed they are reverting back to mid-table where they were before. They have now won the last two matches to regain some form, but they do not score enough to ever make me confident of backing them at regularly tight prices. I think their good recent form comes to an end here.
Back Samsunspor at 2.65 with SportingBet.
Galatasaray v Besiktas, Sunday 1700
One of the biggest matches in the calendar takes place this weekend with Istanbul powerhouses Gala and Besiktas clashing. Gala have led the table for the majority of the season and are now looking to hold off a Fenerbahce side who strengthened considerably over winter. Gala themselves have a number of players that were already very good, and this is why they probably were more concerned with holding on to players than bringing anyone in. The goalkeeper Muslera is being watched by numerous sides in more prominent leagues and the likes of Olof Mellberg, Milan Baros and Johan Elmander are all excellent players by Super Lig standards. Personally, I think they will be able to hold off their city rivals and win back the Super Lig crown.
Besiktas have fallen way behind both their city neighbours in recent seasons. This can mainly be put down to a terrible recruitment process that has seen them bringing in players like Guti who have looked more motivated by the attractive pay packets than showcasing their talents. This has only really been bucked by Ricardo Quaresma who seems to have found his level after a few years struggling in Europe's more major leagues. Simao can also still be very good on his day, but those days are becoming ever more infrequent.
Back Galatasaray at 1.95 with SportingBet.
Talking of opposing Chelsea, they were very poor again for long spells of their match. The away goal keeps them in the tie, but with Napoli at their best on the counter attack it will take a lot to stop them scoring again at Stamford Bridge. After an early goal from one of their few players to shine this season in Juan Mata, Chelsea again failed to deal with an attack that was not short of movement or pace. In truth, the lack of John Terry would probably have meant very little against an attack such as Napoli's. He would have possibly added slightly more organisation, but his lack of pace would have left them exposed anyway. I will not be calling for Villas Boas head, as it's easy money laying them at the moment, but also because he is trying to correct the error of not looking to lower the age of the side for a number of years. He is also seemingly fighting against the old core of Lampard and Terry not being at all pleased with the fact they are becoming increasingly dispensable to the new manager.
Music comes from Junior Battles with Nostalgic at 23.
Newcastle v Wolves, Saturday 1500
Newcastle host Wolves this Saturday still without a manager. It is becoming very embarrassing for the side from Molineux with a host of managers turning them down and now having to appoint Big Mick's assistant on a full time basis for the remainder of the season. Newcastle, on the other hand, have recovered from a small blip before xmas to again make a surge for European football next season. They may not have a large squad, but the addition of Papiss Cisse gives them cover for their most important player, Demba Ba. The two can also play together, forming a strike partnership that is equal to many a 'bigger' club. You only have to look at Arsenal to see that. The midfield pairing of Yohann Cabaye and Cheik Tiote could also be argued to be the best outside of Man City's first choice pairing. The doubts surrounding Alan Pardew, and to some extent Mike Ashley, have subsided slightly for the Geordie Nation.
As mentioned, Wolves are in a right state. They have now appointed a man with no previous experience to try and guide currently the worse side in the division to safety. The goals have dried up and the defence has looked like they've never met before at times, poor Wayne Hennessey looks lost behind them. I fail to see how they can turn it around, particularly on the back of the 5-1 thrashing handed out by neighbours WBA last weekend in the Black Country Derby. They look headed for another spell in the Championship, and on the back of their performances, it's where they belong.
Back Newcastle United -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Paddy Power.
Man City v Blackburn, Saturday 1730
A comfortable victory over Porto in the Europa League sees Man City progress with little needless energy expended. We could also yet see the return of Carlos Tevez to the side if he regains match fitness after he finally apologised for his appallong behaviour against Bayern Munich earlier in the season. City again look to me like they are going to storm off with the Premier League. The return of Vincent Kompany steadies the defence, Yaya Toure returning from the AFCON sees the midfield given extra energy and purpose and Sergio Aguero looks like he's in a good place again. Even Edin Dzeko is notching the odd goal! They have been known to take a while to get going this season and have often added numerous late goals as against Porto in midweek.
Blackburn are not quite as bad as I have occasionally made out. The calls for the head of manager Steve Kean have become less in recent weeks as regardless of anything else, it is clear the players are playing for him. The blame for the catastrophic signings and poor PR is rightly being pushed towards the owners, Venky's, and this leaves a better atmosphere at Ewood Park. The rather big-boned Yakubu has seemingly also rediscovered his scoring touch this season and provides the goal threat many clubs strugging seem to miss. I still think they'll end up in trouble, but they might yet have enough to survive.
Back Second Half Most Goals at 2.1 with Stan James.
Real Betis v Getafe, Saturday 1700
From Spain this weekend we see Getafe travelling to one of the madder clubs in La Liga. Betis have always revelled in their image of being slightly eccentric and the fans take this to extremes in most matches. This does provide a good atmosphere for the home side too. Having re-ascended to the Primera this season Betis have been a bit up and down, which is the same of nearly every other club. At present they are in an 'up' phase with wins in their last two matches. The away win in Bilbao will particularly have given them a boost as it is a very hard place to get a positive result. The striker Castro also looks full of confidence and will fancy himself against Getafe's brittle defence.
Getafe have also had a topsy turvy season with home form being as good as it usually is, but away form letting them down a lot. In twelve away matches they have lost seven and conceded twenty two goals. Their home stadium is a compact bowl and often devoid of noise, it's eerie, and teams don't like the trip there. The chronic lack of investment and cost cutting sees them with a paper thin squad of players, and without that advantage they have at home, they can all too easily be taken apart away. They have also not win in three matches now.
Back Real Betis at 2.1 with Blue Square.
AC Milan v Juventus, Saturday 1945
A huge match in Serie A this weekend sees first place AC hosting second in the table Juve. We all saw what AC are capable of in the hiding they dished out to Arsenal last week in the Champions League. When players like Ibrahimovic and Robinho are fit and in the mood they are quite some prospect. Throw in the likes of the reborn Kevin Prince-Boateng and commanding Thiago Silva at central midfield and centre back respectively and you have a very good side. They have spent the majority of the season at the top of Serie A, and it is their strikeforce that has been the difference. They have scored forty eight goals in twenty four matches, which is very good in the ever stingy Italian leagues. They have only lost one of eleven at home and have also conceded a miserly five in that time.
Juventus were not expected to mount a title challenge this season, but Antonio Conte has fashioned them into a solid side capable of hanging in their in every match. They are still unbeaten in twenty three matches home and away and for them it is their defence that is key to that record. They have only conceded an amazing fourteen in that time, and only six of those away. This probably gives you an idea of Conte's tactics. It's safety first stuff, with the likes of Milos Krasic deemed surplus to requirements due to his lack of defensive nous. They will take a draw in this, and I think they may well get it.
Back the Draw at 3.25 with BetFred.
Napoli v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Another big match sees Inter travelling to the South to Naples. Napoli have again showed in Europe that their forward line should be feared by all, as Chelsea discovered this time. The front four of Cavani, Hamsik, Lavezzi and Gargano are amongst the best in world football now, possibly the best beyond Barca and Real in Spain. Their league form has tailed off a bit to leave them to far behind for a proper title push, but they will want to go for Champions League qualification again. Cavani has now scored in each of the last three matches after a short dry spell and will be looking forward to facing an Inter side who are struggling.
Early on after the appointment of Claudio Ranieri it looked like Inter had steadied the ship and could even have pushed for Champions League football again after a disastrous start to their season. However comma that hope has now dissipated completely. They have fallen to seventh after failing to win in five league matches, as well as losing in the Copa Italia and also midweek in the Champions League. Ranieri must be feeling the pressure, and it looks like the problems can be traced to Sneijder's return to the side. The Dutchman is some player, but the thing Inter had found was a work ethic and lack of stars initially under Ranieri, and his reinstatement to the side has disrupted that. I fail to see how to solve this without a huge fall-out.
Back Napoli at 1.9 with Wiliam Hill.
Samsunspor v Bursaspor, Saturday 1400
First up in the Turkish Super Lig is struggling Samsunspor hosting Bursaspor. Samsun started the season horribly and are still suffering for it being perched above only the truly appalling Anakragucu. But, recently there have been signs they may well get on a run and pull clear of danger. This is mainly due to the inspired signing of striker Theofanis Gekas over the winter break. He may well resemble a homeless man, but he has scored goals wherever his career has taken him, and that has continued so far in Turkey. Since his arrival seven matches ago, Samsun have only lost twice. This run has also included the stunning 3-1 win over Fenerbahce and a confidence boosting 3-0 win over Ankara last weekend.
Bursaspor have featured numerous times this season as their fall from the top of the table has played out. They spent a lot of money to reach the summit, and now the investing has slowed they are reverting back to mid-table where they were before. They have now won the last two matches to regain some form, but they do not score enough to ever make me confident of backing them at regularly tight prices. I think their good recent form comes to an end here.
Back Samsunspor at 2.65 with SportingBet.
Galatasaray v Besiktas, Sunday 1700
One of the biggest matches in the calendar takes place this weekend with Istanbul powerhouses Gala and Besiktas clashing. Gala have led the table for the majority of the season and are now looking to hold off a Fenerbahce side who strengthened considerably over winter. Gala themselves have a number of players that were already very good, and this is why they probably were more concerned with holding on to players than bringing anyone in. The goalkeeper Muslera is being watched by numerous sides in more prominent leagues and the likes of Olof Mellberg, Milan Baros and Johan Elmander are all excellent players by Super Lig standards. Personally, I think they will be able to hold off their city rivals and win back the Super Lig crown.
Besiktas have fallen way behind both their city neighbours in recent seasons. This can mainly be put down to a terrible recruitment process that has seen them bringing in players like Guti who have looked more motivated by the attractive pay packets than showcasing their talents. This has only really been bucked by Ricardo Quaresma who seems to have found his level after a few years struggling in Europe's more major leagues. Simao can also still be very good on his day, but those days are becoming ever more infrequent.
Back Galatasaray at 1.95 with SportingBet.
Friday, 17 February 2012
A Minutes Silence For...
The death of Arsenal as we have come to know them. This week's main talking point with regards to English football was the thrashing AC Milan dealt out to a sorry Arsenal side in Italy. As a fan of a non-league side I had always had a soft spot for Arsenal as my 'big team'. The football they played at the start of Wenger's reign was a real pleasure to watch, both because it was exciting and so far removed from anything I'd seen before. Unfortunately the side has been on the slide for a few years now. They have come to rely on less and less world class players and are now down to just Robin Van Persie, and that was ruthlessly exposed by an AC Milan side who really are not brilliant. The defence is a shambles, the midfield is one-paced and all too easily out-fought, and the attack is now just Van Persie. I can only see this being remedied by a huge overhaul in the summer, and if Wenger is unwilling then it may be best for all concerned if he moves aside.
The FA Cup in England this weekend means there is less matches for me to pick from as I'm still not a Cup punter unless something looks outstanding value.
Music comes from The Roots with Stomp.
Norwich v Leicester, Saturday 1500
Norwich have featured a number of times in this column, and they have been a very profitable side for us this year. The Premier League is definitely weaker than at any time I can remember, barring Man City and Spurs I would argue every one of the 'major' clubs is regressing, but Norwich have performed brilliantly. They now look extremely comfortable in mid-table and could even push for Europe if they continue to play as well as they are. This comfort in the league means they should take the FA Cup very seriously. With Man City and Man Utd eliminated the competition is wide open for any side giving it a go. They also have a nice draw at home to a Championship side who have failed to live up to their pre-season billing as joint favourites for promotion.
Leicester spent big in the summer with the intention of automatic promotion being assured, this has not happened at all. Some poor results saw Sven Goran-Eriksson sacked a while ago, and things have not improved greatly since. The problem with signing a whole new team of players, regardless of how good they are, is that it is very hard to hit the ground running with everybody still getting to know each other and the system. They may well find that next season they kick on with a few tweaks, but I think they'll miss out this time.
Back Norwich at 1.95 with William Hill.
Athletic Bilbao v Malaga, Sunday 1500
Another side who have popped up here on occasion is Bilbao. I have mentioned previously how Marcelo Bielsa was brought in to change the approach of a side renowned for their physical prowess. He has definitely done this and at times the side play some fantastic stuff. The likes of Iker Muniain in particular have flourished in a system that lets them express their skills. The change of system has still found room for the more physical stylings of Fernando Llorente, the Spain forward is still the focal point of the side and is benefitting from the increased creativity behind him. At present it could be argued he should be first choice for the national side. With the final Champions League position still very much up for grabs Bilbao will be looking to turn their home ground back into the fortress it has always been.
Malaga were the first side in Spain to be the beneficiaries of oil money. At the end of last season it was announced they had been bought by another Arab investor and would be looking to push the club forward to eventually challenge at the top of the table. They have not quite spent as freely as some predicted and they have been very hit and miss. The likes of Santi Cazorla have shown their skills regularly, but some others have struggled to get going. This has been particularly true away from home with only two wins and seven losses from eleven matches away from home. They will not be relishing this trip at all.
Back Athletic Bilbao at 1.95 with Stan James.
Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1945
Over to Serie A and another column favourite with Udinese hosting Cagliari. Udinese have been hanging around the top of the table all season, but were dealt a blow last weekend when losing at home to AC Milan. That was, however, their first home defeat of the season, and they have only drawn one more from twelve home matches. They have been tight at the back, only conceding seven goals in those twelve games, and have also scored twenty three to average almost two goals a game. The defeat last week may well have dealt their title hopes a blow, but could well now free them up from that pressure and see them continue to hand out defeats to all visitors.
Cagliari have hovered around mid-table for much of the season and will probably be happy with that for now. Avoiding getting dragged into a relegation scrap should have been the aim, and they have achieved that on the back of their very good home form. They have been hard to beat, but goals have been a problem, with only twenty two scored in their twenty three matches so far. Whilst Italy is rarely free-scoring, that sort of record will stop a team making any sort of push up the table, and if the defence falters, matches will quickly be lost.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.75 with Bet365.
Kaiserslautern v Borussia Monchengladbach, Saturday 1430
Kaiserslautern have really struggled this season in the Bundesliga and will not be relishing the visit of title challengers Gladbach on Saturday. They currently sit in the relegation play-off position of third bottom and the stats reveal just why they have found it such hard work. They have not conceded nearly as many as some of the sides around them, but have scored a measly fifteen goals in twenty one matches. This has seen them drawing far too many matches as they struggle for the goals that could turn them into wins. They have only won three matches all season and it is this more than anything else which could well see them drop out of the top division.
As mentioned Gladbach are still fighting for a chance at the Bundesliga title. They sit three points off top club Dortmund and will still consider themselves as realistic challengers, especially with Marco Reus back and playing well. The forward is the key to Gladbach's turning good performances into fantastic wins. Since xmas they have played four a won three, drawing the other. This has included humping Bayern Munich 3-1 and also an accomplished performance in beating a very good Schalke side 3-0 last time out. They are in great form and it doesn't look likely to desert them anytime soon.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.37 with Coral.
Fenerbahce v Sivasspor, Saturday 1700
Some major investment over the winter break for Fenerbahce will have them confident of kicking on and overhauling Galatasaray in the Super Lig. They currently sit in second position and are six points off perennial rivals Gala, and their home form is the main reason they are still in touch. They have played twelve and have won ten of those and drawn two more, leaving them unbeaten at home so far. They have also only conceded seven goals in those twelve matches whilst scoring twenty four. The new signing of Moussa Sow from Lille in France has added an extra option to their attack, which has at times been all too reliant upon Miroslav Stoch.
Sivasspor have proven that sometimes attacking without a thought for defence can reap rewards. They have also relied on their home form to carry them through to a position of sixth in the table, with only one defeat at their own place so far. Their have been eighty two goals in their twenty three matches so far, and away from home they have been extra leaky at the back. As mentioned this is down to the fact they seem to have embraced an attack is the best policy system this term. In a league where goals are a rarity this often sees good prices available on Over Goals in their matches.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.0 with William Hill.
Kayserispor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1400
Another side who have at times performed much better than many expected have been Kayserispor. They have been as high in the table as fourth, but have slipped back to eleventh at present. With the league being as tight as it is outside of the top two they are still in a position to string some wins together and move back up the table. They have been far better at home with thirteen played, six wins, two draws and five defeats. They have also scored nineteen goals in those matches and only conceded fourteen. In Turkey this is not a bad record at all.
Trabzon are still enjoying European participation in the Europa league having dropped out of the Champions League at the group stage. This may well impact upon their league form though as the matches are on Thursday and as we have seen in the Premier League, a lot of sides struggle at the weekend immediately after their games. Trabzon have actually scored more than any other Super Lig side at home to see them in fourth in the table, but have only won four from thirteen away matches. They have also drawn five and have only scored just over half their home total in their away matches. They may well struggle for a win here.
Back Kayserispor Draw No Bet at 2.5 with Stan James.
The FA Cup in England this weekend means there is less matches for me to pick from as I'm still not a Cup punter unless something looks outstanding value.
Music comes from The Roots with Stomp.
Norwich v Leicester, Saturday 1500
Norwich have featured a number of times in this column, and they have been a very profitable side for us this year. The Premier League is definitely weaker than at any time I can remember, barring Man City and Spurs I would argue every one of the 'major' clubs is regressing, but Norwich have performed brilliantly. They now look extremely comfortable in mid-table and could even push for Europe if they continue to play as well as they are. This comfort in the league means they should take the FA Cup very seriously. With Man City and Man Utd eliminated the competition is wide open for any side giving it a go. They also have a nice draw at home to a Championship side who have failed to live up to their pre-season billing as joint favourites for promotion.
Leicester spent big in the summer with the intention of automatic promotion being assured, this has not happened at all. Some poor results saw Sven Goran-Eriksson sacked a while ago, and things have not improved greatly since. The problem with signing a whole new team of players, regardless of how good they are, is that it is very hard to hit the ground running with everybody still getting to know each other and the system. They may well find that next season they kick on with a few tweaks, but I think they'll miss out this time.
Back Norwich at 1.95 with William Hill.
Athletic Bilbao v Malaga, Sunday 1500
Another side who have popped up here on occasion is Bilbao. I have mentioned previously how Marcelo Bielsa was brought in to change the approach of a side renowned for their physical prowess. He has definitely done this and at times the side play some fantastic stuff. The likes of Iker Muniain in particular have flourished in a system that lets them express their skills. The change of system has still found room for the more physical stylings of Fernando Llorente, the Spain forward is still the focal point of the side and is benefitting from the increased creativity behind him. At present it could be argued he should be first choice for the national side. With the final Champions League position still very much up for grabs Bilbao will be looking to turn their home ground back into the fortress it has always been.
Malaga were the first side in Spain to be the beneficiaries of oil money. At the end of last season it was announced they had been bought by another Arab investor and would be looking to push the club forward to eventually challenge at the top of the table. They have not quite spent as freely as some predicted and they have been very hit and miss. The likes of Santi Cazorla have shown their skills regularly, but some others have struggled to get going. This has been particularly true away from home with only two wins and seven losses from eleven matches away from home. They will not be relishing this trip at all.
Back Athletic Bilbao at 1.95 with Stan James.
Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1945
Over to Serie A and another column favourite with Udinese hosting Cagliari. Udinese have been hanging around the top of the table all season, but were dealt a blow last weekend when losing at home to AC Milan. That was, however, their first home defeat of the season, and they have only drawn one more from twelve home matches. They have been tight at the back, only conceding seven goals in those twelve games, and have also scored twenty three to average almost two goals a game. The defeat last week may well have dealt their title hopes a blow, but could well now free them up from that pressure and see them continue to hand out defeats to all visitors.
Cagliari have hovered around mid-table for much of the season and will probably be happy with that for now. Avoiding getting dragged into a relegation scrap should have been the aim, and they have achieved that on the back of their very good home form. They have been hard to beat, but goals have been a problem, with only twenty two scored in their twenty three matches so far. Whilst Italy is rarely free-scoring, that sort of record will stop a team making any sort of push up the table, and if the defence falters, matches will quickly be lost.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.75 with Bet365.
Kaiserslautern v Borussia Monchengladbach, Saturday 1430
Kaiserslautern have really struggled this season in the Bundesliga and will not be relishing the visit of title challengers Gladbach on Saturday. They currently sit in the relegation play-off position of third bottom and the stats reveal just why they have found it such hard work. They have not conceded nearly as many as some of the sides around them, but have scored a measly fifteen goals in twenty one matches. This has seen them drawing far too many matches as they struggle for the goals that could turn them into wins. They have only won three matches all season and it is this more than anything else which could well see them drop out of the top division.
As mentioned Gladbach are still fighting for a chance at the Bundesliga title. They sit three points off top club Dortmund and will still consider themselves as realistic challengers, especially with Marco Reus back and playing well. The forward is the key to Gladbach's turning good performances into fantastic wins. Since xmas they have played four a won three, drawing the other. This has included humping Bayern Munich 3-1 and also an accomplished performance in beating a very good Schalke side 3-0 last time out. They are in great form and it doesn't look likely to desert them anytime soon.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.37 with Coral.
Fenerbahce v Sivasspor, Saturday 1700
Some major investment over the winter break for Fenerbahce will have them confident of kicking on and overhauling Galatasaray in the Super Lig. They currently sit in second position and are six points off perennial rivals Gala, and their home form is the main reason they are still in touch. They have played twelve and have won ten of those and drawn two more, leaving them unbeaten at home so far. They have also only conceded seven goals in those twelve matches whilst scoring twenty four. The new signing of Moussa Sow from Lille in France has added an extra option to their attack, which has at times been all too reliant upon Miroslav Stoch.
Sivasspor have proven that sometimes attacking without a thought for defence can reap rewards. They have also relied on their home form to carry them through to a position of sixth in the table, with only one defeat at their own place so far. Their have been eighty two goals in their twenty three matches so far, and away from home they have been extra leaky at the back. As mentioned this is down to the fact they seem to have embraced an attack is the best policy system this term. In a league where goals are a rarity this often sees good prices available on Over Goals in their matches.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.0 with William Hill.
Kayserispor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1400
Another side who have at times performed much better than many expected have been Kayserispor. They have been as high in the table as fourth, but have slipped back to eleventh at present. With the league being as tight as it is outside of the top two they are still in a position to string some wins together and move back up the table. They have been far better at home with thirteen played, six wins, two draws and five defeats. They have also scored nineteen goals in those matches and only conceded fourteen. In Turkey this is not a bad record at all.
Trabzon are still enjoying European participation in the Europa league having dropped out of the Champions League at the group stage. This may well impact upon their league form though as the matches are on Thursday and as we have seen in the Premier League, a lot of sides struggle at the weekend immediately after their games. Trabzon have actually scored more than any other Super Lig side at home to see them in fourth in the table, but have only won four from thirteen away matches. They have also drawn five and have only scored just over half their home total in their away matches. They may well struggle for a win here.
Back Kayserispor Draw No Bet at 2.5 with Stan James.
Friday, 10 February 2012
Bring out the orange ball...
It's that time of the year again, coloured balls and postponements are the order of the day. All over Europe for the past few weekends fixtures have fallen foul of the sub-zero temperatures and snowfall. This weekend certainly looks like the same may well happen.
Midweek saw little action anywhere at all. We had the Monday night borefest that was Liverpool v Spurs, and both sides looked pretty happy to leave without losing. Unfortunately for watchers this meant a terrible 0-0 scoreline, with a cat on the pitch about the most excitement produced.
Away from the pitch though saw huge changes for England's national team. I shan't go into huge detail, as you'd have had to of been in a cave not to know what I'm referring to. All I'll say is it is nothing short of a disgrace the way this nation's media has hounded out the most successful (in games won terms) manager because he was foreign and unwilling to play ball with the prats over interviews and the like. It looks like they'll get their man in Harry Redknapp, and I don't possibly see how he'll turn players that are Quarter Finalists at best into anything more.
Music from magnificently named Sister Kisser with Soul Glow.
Man Utd v Liverpool, Saturday 1245
The BIG one this weekend is also the first match of the weekend in the Premier League. Man Utd host Liverpool loking like they are again getting really going post xmas. Last weekend saw them mount an amazing comeback to draw with Chelsea having trailed 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. As I have stated many times before, I think it will be a damning indictment on the league if they do win it this year with surely one of the weakest squads for many a year at Old Trafford. But, if they do then credit to Fergie for getting them to that position I suppose. He certainly wont win the Champions League again without significant improvement though.
Liverpool will have Luis Suarez in the ranks and he will surely come in for some well-justified abuse for his racial taunting of Evra earlier in the season. Kenny Dalglish has also been giving a lesson in how not to do PR this year with his constant whingeing and refusal to admit guilt at all over the affair. He has also presided over a hell of a lot of money being chucked at some particularly average English players, and lo and behold, they have not performed well. Carroll and Downing stand out as wastes of money even when Fernando Torres went for more. Downing has done the square root of buggery on the wing, and Carroll has just looked hapless far to often.
Back United at 1.9 with William Hill.
Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday 1500
Oh Arsenal, the kings of inconsistency. Having had a terrible January they managed to beat Blackburn 7-1 last weekend, and could have had more. Once again Van Persie was fantastic, but Oxlade-Chamberlain and Theo impressed too, particularly shocking in Walcott's case. As much as it was a good result though, it must be stressed it was against a side fully capable of being awful at any point. That they are also missing their best player due to a stand off with the manager should also not be brushed aside. This sort of result means nothing in the grand scheme for me. Arsenal are fully capable of punishing a side like that given the chance, it's when the going gets tough they are found wanting and why they will not finish in the Top 4 this time out.
Sunderland could make a case that they would have pushed for the Champions League had they only dispensed with serially rubbish manager Steve Bruce earlier in the season. The appointment of Martin O'Neill has seen them as the form team in the entire league since that day. The likes of James McLean have been given a chance, and have grasped it with both hands to really impress. Lee Cattermole again looks an arguable alternative to Scott Parker for England rather than a sending off waiting to happen. I thought O'Neill's tenure at Villa showed he may well be out of touch with the modern game, but he is proving me very wrong at the moment and I would not touch Arsenal here.
Back Sunderland Draw No Bet at 2.62 with Bet365.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Schalke, Saturday 1730
The big televised match in Germany on Saturday evening sees a top of the table clash between Monchengladbach and Schalke. Both sides were probably not expected to do quite as well as they have this term, but are still currently in with a shout of a league title. Monchengladbach are probably the more shocking of the pair as they have not really been heard from in many years. The form of Marco Reus has been key to most of their better performances as the forward has plenty of pace, tricks and also chips in with his fair share of goals. Unfortunately for their fans he has been sold to Dortmund for this summer, but has vowed to show his best form before then.
Schalke have been there or thereabouts for much of the recent past without ever truly worrying the likes of Bayern. Last season they struggled under Felix Magath's autocratic management and with his never ending signings leaving them with no team cohesiveness at all. This season they have performed much better. The likes of Klaas Huntelaar are finally showing the form that brought him to Europe's attention at Ajax and Raul is still chipping in when selected. I can't see them holding on for a true title tilt, but they'll definitely be in the shake up.
Back Monchengladbach at 2.5 on Betfair.
FC Koln v Hamburg, Sunday 1630
Sunday sees perennially entertaining Koln (Cologne) hosting Hamburg. Having held on to star man Lukas Podolski in January the Koln fans will surely hope for a climb up the table into some sort of mid-table obscurity before dreaming again of a push for Europe next season. The problem seems to be that they always have to 'enjoy' some sort of crisis or they can't function properly. This season saw them start horrendously before finally settling into something resembling form and slowly climbing away from the relegation places. They currently sit 10th in the table having won four, drawn two and lost four at home. There away form has always been the issue, and with twenty six conceded in ten away games it is clear the problem still exists. However comma at home this has been less of a problem and they'll fancy something here.
Hamburg have been quiet dreadful for the most part all season. Having appointed former Chelsea Youth Director Frank Arnesen in some sort of all encompassing directorial role he proceeded to buy up a lot of the dross he'd accumulated at Chelsea and throw it out in Hamburg's first team. This has shown the players up as sub-standard in the main and leaves a club that was regularly in Europe not so long ago looking nervously over their shoulders at the base of the table. They picked up a draw at home to Munich last time out, but whilst they have indeed looked better since xmas, that is better than terrible and Koln have every chance at very appealing odds.
Back Koln at 3.2 with Boylesports.
Udinese v AC Milan, Saturday 1700
Another big match at the peak of the table in Europe. This time it's Serie A with upstarts Udinese hosting always challenging AC Milan. Udinese have again shown that a brilliant scouting network and hard-working players can reap huge rewards and challenge the established order given time. Every season they lose a couple of their best players, and every season they come back looking like it's not completely destabilised them. They have also again been able to rely upon the goalscoring prowess of Di Natale, who even at his age is scoring regularly and making his younger contemporaries look less than glittering.
AC have again shown their strength by pushing for the title without really considerably strengthening their side. Obviously when you have the experience of winning titles that players like Seedorf and Ibrahimovic have then that is invaluable. However, they have struggled without the mercurial Swede's goals when he has been suspended or injured and he is currently missing. This has seen them lose away at Lazio, draw at home to Napoli and get beaten at home by Juventus in the cup in midweek in their last three outings. They would not have wanted this trip now.
Back Udinese at 2.68 on Betfair.
Catania v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Next up is Catania hosting the suddenly exciting Genoa. Both sides are hovering around mid-table currently and relying on home form to keep them there. Catania have played ten at home so far, winning four, drawing four and only losing twice. This success can mostly be put down to a miserly defence which has only been breached eight times in those ten matches whilst the forwards have contributed thirteen to see a healthy return at home. Since xmas they have drawn two and lost two and there has been at least two goals in every match. They have conceded a goal apiece in both their home matches too.
Genoa have come back after the winter break a different side entirely. They have been going goal crazy, particularly in a league like Serie A where goals are always hard to come by. There have been a phenomenal twenty six goals in five matches since the break with the last two matches ending in 3-2 thrillers and a 5-3 before that. They seem to have changed approach to a gung-ho style of 'however many you score, we'll go for more' and it has had mixed results. But, it has made them great to watch for the neutrals. I see no reason for this madness to stop and will be betting accordingly.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.5 with SkyBet.
Genclerbirligi v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Saturday 1400
Two sides in opposite runs of form meet at Gencler on Saturday afternoon. Outside of the big two in Turkey of Fenerbahce and Galatasaray there is always room for other sides to mount a challenge and for the last couple of months it has been Gencler's turn to make a push. They are now up to fourth in the table and have an intimidating home record of played thirteen, won eight, drawn four and only lost once whilst scoring twenty four and only conceding ten. As this record would suggest, they are solid at the back and in striker Tum possess a man who will always score given a chance. They have won four and drawn two of the last six and are a formidable outfit.
Mersin won promotion and didn't start off too badly this season. However, this early form is now the only reason they are not firmly entrenched in the relegation mire. They have only won one match in the last nine and have succumbed to defeat in five of those, including a 5-1 home defeat by Sivasspor last time out. They are in dire straits and falling fast. I think the odds on Gencler are very generous this weekend.
Back Genclerbirligi at 1.9 with SportingBet.
Samsunspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1400
Another side in trouble this season is Samsunspor. They currently sit second bottom to the wretched Ankaragucu and since they are incredibly poor it says a lot. The problem is simple really for them, they don't score many and concede lots. They have only scored twenty four in twenty five matches and conceded a whopping thirty nine in that time to leave collecting wins difficult. They have been better at home with twelve played and an even share of four wins, four draws and four defeats, but their inconsistency is the issue. They have been beaten 4-2 by Istanbul BB at home and then beaten Fenerbahce 3-1 at home the following weekend.
Eskisehir were very close to European qualification last season and have again showed themselves to be no pushovers this time out. They are very hard to beat and collect a lot of 1-0 wins, becoming masters of snatching single goals and defending in numbers. It isn't fun to watch, but it certainly keeps them in the right half of the table. They have a very mixed record away form home however and anything could well happen here. Both sides will see this as winnable and that could produce a classic match.
Back Over 2.5 at 2.1 with William Hill.
Midweek saw little action anywhere at all. We had the Monday night borefest that was Liverpool v Spurs, and both sides looked pretty happy to leave without losing. Unfortunately for watchers this meant a terrible 0-0 scoreline, with a cat on the pitch about the most excitement produced.
Away from the pitch though saw huge changes for England's national team. I shan't go into huge detail, as you'd have had to of been in a cave not to know what I'm referring to. All I'll say is it is nothing short of a disgrace the way this nation's media has hounded out the most successful (in games won terms) manager because he was foreign and unwilling to play ball with the prats over interviews and the like. It looks like they'll get their man in Harry Redknapp, and I don't possibly see how he'll turn players that are Quarter Finalists at best into anything more.
Music from magnificently named Sister Kisser with Soul Glow.
Man Utd v Liverpool, Saturday 1245
The BIG one this weekend is also the first match of the weekend in the Premier League. Man Utd host Liverpool loking like they are again getting really going post xmas. Last weekend saw them mount an amazing comeback to draw with Chelsea having trailed 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. As I have stated many times before, I think it will be a damning indictment on the league if they do win it this year with surely one of the weakest squads for many a year at Old Trafford. But, if they do then credit to Fergie for getting them to that position I suppose. He certainly wont win the Champions League again without significant improvement though.
Liverpool will have Luis Suarez in the ranks and he will surely come in for some well-justified abuse for his racial taunting of Evra earlier in the season. Kenny Dalglish has also been giving a lesson in how not to do PR this year with his constant whingeing and refusal to admit guilt at all over the affair. He has also presided over a hell of a lot of money being chucked at some particularly average English players, and lo and behold, they have not performed well. Carroll and Downing stand out as wastes of money even when Fernando Torres went for more. Downing has done the square root of buggery on the wing, and Carroll has just looked hapless far to often.
Back United at 1.9 with William Hill.
Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday 1500
Oh Arsenal, the kings of inconsistency. Having had a terrible January they managed to beat Blackburn 7-1 last weekend, and could have had more. Once again Van Persie was fantastic, but Oxlade-Chamberlain and Theo impressed too, particularly shocking in Walcott's case. As much as it was a good result though, it must be stressed it was against a side fully capable of being awful at any point. That they are also missing their best player due to a stand off with the manager should also not be brushed aside. This sort of result means nothing in the grand scheme for me. Arsenal are fully capable of punishing a side like that given the chance, it's when the going gets tough they are found wanting and why they will not finish in the Top 4 this time out.
Sunderland could make a case that they would have pushed for the Champions League had they only dispensed with serially rubbish manager Steve Bruce earlier in the season. The appointment of Martin O'Neill has seen them as the form team in the entire league since that day. The likes of James McLean have been given a chance, and have grasped it with both hands to really impress. Lee Cattermole again looks an arguable alternative to Scott Parker for England rather than a sending off waiting to happen. I thought O'Neill's tenure at Villa showed he may well be out of touch with the modern game, but he is proving me very wrong at the moment and I would not touch Arsenal here.
Back Sunderland Draw No Bet at 2.62 with Bet365.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Schalke, Saturday 1730
The big televised match in Germany on Saturday evening sees a top of the table clash between Monchengladbach and Schalke. Both sides were probably not expected to do quite as well as they have this term, but are still currently in with a shout of a league title. Monchengladbach are probably the more shocking of the pair as they have not really been heard from in many years. The form of Marco Reus has been key to most of their better performances as the forward has plenty of pace, tricks and also chips in with his fair share of goals. Unfortunately for their fans he has been sold to Dortmund for this summer, but has vowed to show his best form before then.
Schalke have been there or thereabouts for much of the recent past without ever truly worrying the likes of Bayern. Last season they struggled under Felix Magath's autocratic management and with his never ending signings leaving them with no team cohesiveness at all. This season they have performed much better. The likes of Klaas Huntelaar are finally showing the form that brought him to Europe's attention at Ajax and Raul is still chipping in when selected. I can't see them holding on for a true title tilt, but they'll definitely be in the shake up.
Back Monchengladbach at 2.5 on Betfair.
FC Koln v Hamburg, Sunday 1630
Sunday sees perennially entertaining Koln (Cologne) hosting Hamburg. Having held on to star man Lukas Podolski in January the Koln fans will surely hope for a climb up the table into some sort of mid-table obscurity before dreaming again of a push for Europe next season. The problem seems to be that they always have to 'enjoy' some sort of crisis or they can't function properly. This season saw them start horrendously before finally settling into something resembling form and slowly climbing away from the relegation places. They currently sit 10th in the table having won four, drawn two and lost four at home. There away form has always been the issue, and with twenty six conceded in ten away games it is clear the problem still exists. However comma at home this has been less of a problem and they'll fancy something here.
Hamburg have been quiet dreadful for the most part all season. Having appointed former Chelsea Youth Director Frank Arnesen in some sort of all encompassing directorial role he proceeded to buy up a lot of the dross he'd accumulated at Chelsea and throw it out in Hamburg's first team. This has shown the players up as sub-standard in the main and leaves a club that was regularly in Europe not so long ago looking nervously over their shoulders at the base of the table. They picked up a draw at home to Munich last time out, but whilst they have indeed looked better since xmas, that is better than terrible and Koln have every chance at very appealing odds.
Back Koln at 3.2 with Boylesports.
Udinese v AC Milan, Saturday 1700
Another big match at the peak of the table in Europe. This time it's Serie A with upstarts Udinese hosting always challenging AC Milan. Udinese have again shown that a brilliant scouting network and hard-working players can reap huge rewards and challenge the established order given time. Every season they lose a couple of their best players, and every season they come back looking like it's not completely destabilised them. They have also again been able to rely upon the goalscoring prowess of Di Natale, who even at his age is scoring regularly and making his younger contemporaries look less than glittering.
AC have again shown their strength by pushing for the title without really considerably strengthening their side. Obviously when you have the experience of winning titles that players like Seedorf and Ibrahimovic have then that is invaluable. However, they have struggled without the mercurial Swede's goals when he has been suspended or injured and he is currently missing. This has seen them lose away at Lazio, draw at home to Napoli and get beaten at home by Juventus in the cup in midweek in their last three outings. They would not have wanted this trip now.
Back Udinese at 2.68 on Betfair.
Catania v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Next up is Catania hosting the suddenly exciting Genoa. Both sides are hovering around mid-table currently and relying on home form to keep them there. Catania have played ten at home so far, winning four, drawing four and only losing twice. This success can mostly be put down to a miserly defence which has only been breached eight times in those ten matches whilst the forwards have contributed thirteen to see a healthy return at home. Since xmas they have drawn two and lost two and there has been at least two goals in every match. They have conceded a goal apiece in both their home matches too.
Genoa have come back after the winter break a different side entirely. They have been going goal crazy, particularly in a league like Serie A where goals are always hard to come by. There have been a phenomenal twenty six goals in five matches since the break with the last two matches ending in 3-2 thrillers and a 5-3 before that. They seem to have changed approach to a gung-ho style of 'however many you score, we'll go for more' and it has had mixed results. But, it has made them great to watch for the neutrals. I see no reason for this madness to stop and will be betting accordingly.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.5 with SkyBet.
Genclerbirligi v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Saturday 1400
Two sides in opposite runs of form meet at Gencler on Saturday afternoon. Outside of the big two in Turkey of Fenerbahce and Galatasaray there is always room for other sides to mount a challenge and for the last couple of months it has been Gencler's turn to make a push. They are now up to fourth in the table and have an intimidating home record of played thirteen, won eight, drawn four and only lost once whilst scoring twenty four and only conceding ten. As this record would suggest, they are solid at the back and in striker Tum possess a man who will always score given a chance. They have won four and drawn two of the last six and are a formidable outfit.
Mersin won promotion and didn't start off too badly this season. However, this early form is now the only reason they are not firmly entrenched in the relegation mire. They have only won one match in the last nine and have succumbed to defeat in five of those, including a 5-1 home defeat by Sivasspor last time out. They are in dire straits and falling fast. I think the odds on Gencler are very generous this weekend.
Back Genclerbirligi at 1.9 with SportingBet.
Samsunspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1400
Another side in trouble this season is Samsunspor. They currently sit second bottom to the wretched Ankaragucu and since they are incredibly poor it says a lot. The problem is simple really for them, they don't score many and concede lots. They have only scored twenty four in twenty five matches and conceded a whopping thirty nine in that time to leave collecting wins difficult. They have been better at home with twelve played and an even share of four wins, four draws and four defeats, but their inconsistency is the issue. They have been beaten 4-2 by Istanbul BB at home and then beaten Fenerbahce 3-1 at home the following weekend.
Eskisehir were very close to European qualification last season and have again showed themselves to be no pushovers this time out. They are very hard to beat and collect a lot of 1-0 wins, becoming masters of snatching single goals and defending in numbers. It isn't fun to watch, but it certainly keeps them in the right half of the table. They have a very mixed record away form home however and anything could well happen here. Both sides will see this as winnable and that could produce a classic match.
Back Over 2.5 at 2.1 with William Hill.
Friday, 3 February 2012
Postcards from Siberia...
First of all I would like to offer my apologies for the lack of blog last weekend. I was taken away to Lithuania by my lovely girlfriend for my birthday so was not able to research the betting action properly. Those who follow me @TopTopTips on the Twitter will have seen two out of three land midweek for healthy profits.
There has been plenty of action in my absence from here so a brief summary is probably required:
1. Sunderland are the team in form, in fact they're in the best form in the whole of the Premier League since O'Neill's appointment.
2. Everton and QPR look to have made the biggest improvements to their squads and are worth watching.
3. Arsenal are dire, Man City need a comfortable win for confidence.
4. Fener and Gala in Turkey are out of form, Orduspor are doing great after Hector Cuper took over the managerial reigns.
5. Dortmund have come back looking back to their very best, title should be their's to lose.
6. Barca are vulnerable away from Camp Nou this year, Madrid like to give the opposition a headstart before beating them anyway.
Music this week comes from Sundowner with The War Is Noise.
QPR v Wolves, Saturday 1500
First up is the previously mentioned QPR now managed by Mark Hughes. Whilst I am distinctly of the opinion he is greatly over-rated as a manager he does get teams playing to their abilities, if not exceeding them. The signings QPR made before the transfer window closed have them looking a far better outfit than previously and they really ought to comfortably survive. The likes of Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora may not see them pushing on to Europe, but they're a lot more than the likes of Wolves or Blackburn have to offer. They raced into a 2-0 lead against Villa before surrendering it, but I would not expect them to do the same to a dreadful Wolves side.
Wolves are possibly the worst team currently playing in the Premier League and they didn't do anything in January to make me think they'll turn it round. Mick McCarthy has done well, in my opinion, to keep them around for more than one season with a side generally made up of Championship standard players. However comma these things can't continue when the players are not good enough and no major investment is forthcoming. I think this comes down to Big Mick not knowing much outside of the Championship as well as a lack of major investment behind the scenes. Regardless, I wouldn't back Wolves at present and will be against them away for the forseeable future.
Back QPR at 1.95 with William Hill.
Chelsea v Man Utd, Sunday 1600
The big one this weekend has Man Utd travelling to London to take on Chelsea. I wasn't involved in their midweek match away at Swansea, but with respective home and away records I certainly wouldn't have touched Chelsea at under even money. This was borne out in them falling behind and only snatching a fortunate late equaliser through Jose Bosingwa. As a lot of people mentioned last season and this, the squad is getting old together and a major overhaul is needed. I would be in no hurry to give Villas Boas the chop as he is signing some interesting young players, but there can be no doubt it could be a painful season this year, and possibly even next. They certainly will not relish the visit of United this weekend.
On to United, and as much as I have given them stick for having their worst team in years, they sit level top with neighbours City as I write this. I struggle to commend anyone for this, it is more a damning indictment of the rest of the league at the moment. Ferguson may well have motivated his side well, but the glaring deficiencies are not being addressed so I'll hold off from compliments until they are sorted. As mentioned though they are definitely grinding out results and will not fear the trip to Stamford Bridge.
Back Man Utd Draw No Bet at 2.05 with William Hill.
Hertha Berlin v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
Back to the Bundesliga on the blog! I can only see one standout bet this weekend and that's this one. Hertha Berlin are enjoying a return to the top league in Germany, but they are in danger of only making it a one season stay. They started off bad, improved a little, and are back to being horrendous again. They don't score many and have now not won in 9 matches. In the German Bundesliga where most teams are fairly open and goals fly in more than any other major European league having a lack of firepower can be enough to condemn a side, and Hertha look like that may be their fate.
Hannover were one of last season's success stories, promoting some young players and also changing to a hard pressing game that reaped rewards. They didn't start at all well this time out, but have turned it round to now sit just outside the title picture. They have struggled away from home with only one win and a paltry 6 goals to their name in nine matches and this is probably the source of their issues. I think both sides would take a draw in this.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with Ladbrokes.
Chievo v Parma, Sunday 1400
Here is a classic match up of good home form takes on rubbish away. Chievo were the shock success of the noughties in Serie A in as much as they have hung around when many other big sides have come and gone and come and gone again. They haven't thrown money around and have relied upon getting in the odd good foreign player and having plenty of battlers in their side. They have also made any side visiting their small stadium in Verona earn any points they get and that has continued this season. They have only lost two of nine at home this season with five wins and three draws, during this they may have only scored nine, but by only conceding seven they have earnt their points.
Parma have also survived when perhaps many expected them to fall after their benefactors Parmalat went bust in the late nineties. The days of signing the likes of Hidetoshi Nakata and Juan Veron are well past and every season is a struggle for points, but they're sticking around. They too rely upon a good home record and have struggled on the road. They have only won one of ten and lost six whilst scoring six and conceding a whopping twenty one. They are unbackable at the prices being offered for this.
Back Chievo at 2.37 at Coral.
Palermo v Atalanta, Sunday 1400
Now once again with a new manager Palermo are starting to show signs of improvement. They managed a very creditable 4-4 draw away at Inter midweek, and after their horrendous away form before Xmas that should definitely be seen as a positive. The one thing they have always had is good home form and are eight wins and two losses from their ten home matches. They have also started banging in the goals after settling into their slightly tinkered formation with eleven in the last three. They look like a push for Europe is definitely on the cards to me.
Atalanta have been hit and miss all season. They are not really any better home or away and can be quite unpredictable. They have however only won two of the last ten in Serie A and look out of luck for the most part. They have only scored one in the last four matches, albeit in a tough run, and are probably not looking forward to a trip to the south to take on home bankers Palermo.
Back Palermo at 1.83 at Stan James.
Gaziantepspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
Last season one of my favourite teams to back was Gaziantepspor as they had an awesome home record, but this season they've struggled considerably away and sit dangerously near the bottom of the Super Lig. They have won five of eleven at home and only lost three with a positive goal difference, but away they've only a solitary win from eleven and six losses. They are unbeaten in the last four at home and have won three of those.
Gala are still top of the league, but only really due to Fenerbahce also being very poor of late. Gala have only won one in four since the Xmas break and have not impressed at all in any match really. They beat Ankaragucu 4-0 at home, but for Ankara this season think Wigan, but times at least five. Every decent side in the Super Lig should be putting at least three past them and Gala merely went through the motions in beating them. Milan Baros will also be suspended for this one and with him goes a significant goal threat.
Back Gaziantepspor Draw No Bet at 2.62 with Stan James.
Bursaspor v Orduspor, Sunday 1400
The form side in the Super Lig of late is undoubtably Orduspor and they travel to this season's disappointment Bursaspor. Regular followers will know I've been against Bursa on a number of occasions this season and they've been good to us in terms of profit. After their two titles in a row and a decent push last season, they've fallen away drastically this time out. They currently sit in twelfth and have been ok at home, away has let them down. But, they are not scoring enough to see games out comfortably. This would be a concern for me and why I would still be loathe to be behind them at regularly short prices.
Orduspor were looking certain to be involved in the relegation scrap until appointing veteran manager Hector Cuper before Xmas. Since then they have been the form team in the Super Lig. They have not been beaten in seven and have won the last five. In that run they have also only conceded in two matches and look overpriced here to me. I would definitely want to be against the home side.
Back the Draw and Orduspor Double Chance at 2.0 with Boylesports.
There has been plenty of action in my absence from here so a brief summary is probably required:
1. Sunderland are the team in form, in fact they're in the best form in the whole of the Premier League since O'Neill's appointment.
2. Everton and QPR look to have made the biggest improvements to their squads and are worth watching.
3. Arsenal are dire, Man City need a comfortable win for confidence.
4. Fener and Gala in Turkey are out of form, Orduspor are doing great after Hector Cuper took over the managerial reigns.
5. Dortmund have come back looking back to their very best, title should be their's to lose.
6. Barca are vulnerable away from Camp Nou this year, Madrid like to give the opposition a headstart before beating them anyway.
Music this week comes from Sundowner with The War Is Noise.
QPR v Wolves, Saturday 1500
First up is the previously mentioned QPR now managed by Mark Hughes. Whilst I am distinctly of the opinion he is greatly over-rated as a manager he does get teams playing to their abilities, if not exceeding them. The signings QPR made before the transfer window closed have them looking a far better outfit than previously and they really ought to comfortably survive. The likes of Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora may not see them pushing on to Europe, but they're a lot more than the likes of Wolves or Blackburn have to offer. They raced into a 2-0 lead against Villa before surrendering it, but I would not expect them to do the same to a dreadful Wolves side.
Wolves are possibly the worst team currently playing in the Premier League and they didn't do anything in January to make me think they'll turn it round. Mick McCarthy has done well, in my opinion, to keep them around for more than one season with a side generally made up of Championship standard players. However comma these things can't continue when the players are not good enough and no major investment is forthcoming. I think this comes down to Big Mick not knowing much outside of the Championship as well as a lack of major investment behind the scenes. Regardless, I wouldn't back Wolves at present and will be against them away for the forseeable future.
Back QPR at 1.95 with William Hill.
Chelsea v Man Utd, Sunday 1600
The big one this weekend has Man Utd travelling to London to take on Chelsea. I wasn't involved in their midweek match away at Swansea, but with respective home and away records I certainly wouldn't have touched Chelsea at under even money. This was borne out in them falling behind and only snatching a fortunate late equaliser through Jose Bosingwa. As a lot of people mentioned last season and this, the squad is getting old together and a major overhaul is needed. I would be in no hurry to give Villas Boas the chop as he is signing some interesting young players, but there can be no doubt it could be a painful season this year, and possibly even next. They certainly will not relish the visit of United this weekend.
On to United, and as much as I have given them stick for having their worst team in years, they sit level top with neighbours City as I write this. I struggle to commend anyone for this, it is more a damning indictment of the rest of the league at the moment. Ferguson may well have motivated his side well, but the glaring deficiencies are not being addressed so I'll hold off from compliments until they are sorted. As mentioned though they are definitely grinding out results and will not fear the trip to Stamford Bridge.
Back Man Utd Draw No Bet at 2.05 with William Hill.
Hertha Berlin v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
Back to the Bundesliga on the blog! I can only see one standout bet this weekend and that's this one. Hertha Berlin are enjoying a return to the top league in Germany, but they are in danger of only making it a one season stay. They started off bad, improved a little, and are back to being horrendous again. They don't score many and have now not won in 9 matches. In the German Bundesliga where most teams are fairly open and goals fly in more than any other major European league having a lack of firepower can be enough to condemn a side, and Hertha look like that may be their fate.
Hannover were one of last season's success stories, promoting some young players and also changing to a hard pressing game that reaped rewards. They didn't start at all well this time out, but have turned it round to now sit just outside the title picture. They have struggled away from home with only one win and a paltry 6 goals to their name in nine matches and this is probably the source of their issues. I think both sides would take a draw in this.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with Ladbrokes.
Chievo v Parma, Sunday 1400
Here is a classic match up of good home form takes on rubbish away. Chievo were the shock success of the noughties in Serie A in as much as they have hung around when many other big sides have come and gone and come and gone again. They haven't thrown money around and have relied upon getting in the odd good foreign player and having plenty of battlers in their side. They have also made any side visiting their small stadium in Verona earn any points they get and that has continued this season. They have only lost two of nine at home this season with five wins and three draws, during this they may have only scored nine, but by only conceding seven they have earnt their points.
Parma have also survived when perhaps many expected them to fall after their benefactors Parmalat went bust in the late nineties. The days of signing the likes of Hidetoshi Nakata and Juan Veron are well past and every season is a struggle for points, but they're sticking around. They too rely upon a good home record and have struggled on the road. They have only won one of ten and lost six whilst scoring six and conceding a whopping twenty one. They are unbackable at the prices being offered for this.
Back Chievo at 2.37 at Coral.
Palermo v Atalanta, Sunday 1400
Now once again with a new manager Palermo are starting to show signs of improvement. They managed a very creditable 4-4 draw away at Inter midweek, and after their horrendous away form before Xmas that should definitely be seen as a positive. The one thing they have always had is good home form and are eight wins and two losses from their ten home matches. They have also started banging in the goals after settling into their slightly tinkered formation with eleven in the last three. They look like a push for Europe is definitely on the cards to me.
Atalanta have been hit and miss all season. They are not really any better home or away and can be quite unpredictable. They have however only won two of the last ten in Serie A and look out of luck for the most part. They have only scored one in the last four matches, albeit in a tough run, and are probably not looking forward to a trip to the south to take on home bankers Palermo.
Back Palermo at 1.83 at Stan James.
Gaziantepspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
Last season one of my favourite teams to back was Gaziantepspor as they had an awesome home record, but this season they've struggled considerably away and sit dangerously near the bottom of the Super Lig. They have won five of eleven at home and only lost three with a positive goal difference, but away they've only a solitary win from eleven and six losses. They are unbeaten in the last four at home and have won three of those.
Gala are still top of the league, but only really due to Fenerbahce also being very poor of late. Gala have only won one in four since the Xmas break and have not impressed at all in any match really. They beat Ankaragucu 4-0 at home, but for Ankara this season think Wigan, but times at least five. Every decent side in the Super Lig should be putting at least three past them and Gala merely went through the motions in beating them. Milan Baros will also be suspended for this one and with him goes a significant goal threat.
Back Gaziantepspor Draw No Bet at 2.62 with Stan James.
Bursaspor v Orduspor, Sunday 1400
The form side in the Super Lig of late is undoubtably Orduspor and they travel to this season's disappointment Bursaspor. Regular followers will know I've been against Bursa on a number of occasions this season and they've been good to us in terms of profit. After their two titles in a row and a decent push last season, they've fallen away drastically this time out. They currently sit in twelfth and have been ok at home, away has let them down. But, they are not scoring enough to see games out comfortably. This would be a concern for me and why I would still be loathe to be behind them at regularly short prices.
Orduspor were looking certain to be involved in the relegation scrap until appointing veteran manager Hector Cuper before Xmas. Since then they have been the form team in the Super Lig. They have not been beaten in seven and have won the last five. In that run they have also only conceded in two matches and look overpriced here to me. I would definitely want to be against the home side.
Back the Draw and Orduspor Double Chance at 2.0 with Boylesports.
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