Good day readers and welcome to the first weekend with a complete European fixture list to pick from. Italy's Serie A and Germnay's Bundesliga make up the magical five I pick from. As I have mentioned before, it it difficult to get it right on the opening fixtures as new players are bedding in, fitness can be off etc. With that in mind let's look back at last weeks profit and loss.
Week 1 - QPR v Swansea - lose 2 points, Newcastle v Tottenham - win 3.7 points, Man City v Southampton - lose 2 points, Celta Vigo v Malaga - lose 2 points, Mallorca v Espanyol - lose 1 point, Karabukspor v Trabzonspor - win 0.95 points, Istanbul BB v Besiktas - lose 1 point.
Leaving us down 3.35 points after Week 1. Let's hope we get an early boost this weekend!
Music comes from the glorious Daytrader with Living.
Swansea v West Ham, Saturday 1245
After my prediction of QPR to beat Swansea was made to look very foolish last week I may be forced to revise my opinion of them under Michael Laudrup. It could be the case that they caught QPR cold, but they looked excellent, in particular Michu carrying on where he left off for Rayo in Spain last year with a brace. In my defence I did say they had made some interesting signings and could well be brilliant, I just erred on the side of caution. There is also a school of thought that says that Brendan Rodgers merely took the Welsh side along their natural progression after the good work of Roberto Martinez and Paulo Sousa before him. If this were the case then the club is primed to move on again if Laudrup is good enough a manager to do this. If Laudrup is going to go for revolution and keep the pressing and passing model they already used with the odd player like Michu to provide some thrust and dynamism then a push for Europe could be an aim. But, surely I'm getting caught up in hyperbole now!
West Ham started with a narrow victory over an Aston Villa side who are probably still trying to escape the hangover of the Alex McCleish reign of terror. I am far from a fan of Sam Allardyce's sides, but the big man can certainly put together a side who will be unlikely to get in much trouble. The grit and determination always embodied in his teams is beginning to be there at West Ham, but last season showed they can still be as flaky as ever. They also leaked more goals than his sides usually do and Allardyce moved for James Collins at centre back over the summer, presumably to provide a mature head alongside his other defenders. The problem with this is that Collins best days are probably a fair way back now and I don't see him helping at all. I think West Ham will be alright this season, but I think games like this will see them well beaten apart from the odd miracle performance.
Back Swansea at 2.15 with BODOG. 3 points.
Southampton v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Another bet of mine to go down the first weekend was Man City to beat Southampton with an Asian Handicap of 2.0. To be honest, City probably did enough to get a comfortable victory, but let Saints back in the game after going ahead and rallied late on to take the victory. After dropping last seasons star striker Rickie Lambert to the bench, manager Nigel Adkins brought him and on and saw him make an impact against City. With a very decent goal I would assume he will be restored to the starting line-up for this match. There's probably been an over-reaction to the opening game in favour of Southampton, they certainly would have been fortunate to leave with a point on reflection, but I possibly underestimated them slightly in my antepost betting column. They should certainly view this as a winnable match and they didn't struggle for goals or attacking flair last season so I'm going to gamble on them taking the game to Wigan and having too much for them.
Wigan started with a 0-2 loss at home to Chelsea last Sunday and they were completely overrun at times by the likes of Eden Hazard and Ryan Bertrand. It's very easy to predict a season of struggle for them again, but I fail to see how to avoid in when a team is so dodgy at the back and lightweight up front. Their best player was again Victor Moses and if he does end up departing for Chelsea or Liverpool then I would really fear for them. Ivan Ramis was also signed as an answer to their perennial centre half issue and he looked hopelessly out of his depth in his debut match. Whilst Martinez was praised for lifting the side at the end of last season to survive, perhaps more should be made of the fact he was also responsible for them being in such a horrendous position to start with. Wigan rarely start that well and Southampton should be full of confidence after a narrow loss away to the champions.
Back Southampton at 2.15 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Liverpool v Man City, Sunday 1600
The biggest match this weekend sees champions Man City travelling to Anfield. Liverpool contrived to lose their opening fixture away to West Brom last weekend 3-0. They sadly showed all the similar problems of last season for the most part too. Luis Suarez buzzed around, looked skilful, beat players and then missed again and again. Pepe Reina looked a shadow of the keeper he was under Rafa Benitez. The wide players contributed very little. And then after last season where defence was their strong suit, Daniel Agger lost his head and was sent off. The partnership Agger and Martin Skrtl had formed was perhaps the only positive to come out of last season and they will miss the Dane for this match. Joe Allen looked like a good player, and linked pretty well with Lucas for the most part, but it is also hard to see how Steven Gerrard can be accommodated in Rodgers midfield if pressing and accurate passing are the keys. I would envisage him being given a fair crack at earning his spot, but I don't see how he can. I predict more bad than good again this season for Liverpool.
Man City dominated Southampton as expected last Sunday, but let them into the game with defensive errors to only end up with a 3-2 victory. The tinkering manager Roberto Mancini has been doing with a 3-4-3 formation pre-season could perhaps have led to this with the players getting back into the more normal 4-2-3-1 City tend to employ. The other major worry was the injury to Sergio Aguero, which has now been declared as not major. He'll not be available for this match though so I would expect Mario Balotelli to probably get his first start of the season after a good World Cup with Italy. If he shows the same hard work and power he did for his national team over the summer then the loss of Aguero will not be nearly as painful. The talking point from both last weekend and the Community Shield has been the return of Carlos Tevez to form. The little Argentine truly looks as fit as he has ever been and willing to graft as he really can when the mood takes him. If this Tevez stays fit and happy all season then City will have an extra threat against all opponents.
Back Manchester City at 2.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo, Saturday 1800
I struggle with Spanish football if I'm totally honest. There's the odd small runs that can be profitable if you spot them early and get on board, but other than that it's difficult. You can claim backing Barcelona and Real Madrid could work, possibly even handicapping, but I've little interest in it myself. That's not to wee on anyone's fire, all profit is good, but I can't get interest in such a boring set of matches. Outside of those two sides and Valencia there now seems to be no real good or bad sides particularly and this makes it quite hard as a casual observer of La Liga. I think from now on I'll see of laying short priced home favourites is a way to go. Celta Vigo possibly deserved more last weekend in losing at home to Malaga and Sociedad were roundly thrashed by Barcelona so lets' begin the experiment with a lay of Sociedad.
Lay Real Sociedad at 2.1 on Betfair. 1 point.
Pescara v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Italy's Serie A is back this week and it could shape up to be an interesting season with penny pinching at AC Milan, the usual uproar at Inter Milan and Juventus and Antonio Conte in hot water again. When you factor in Napoli, Udinese and possible others to come through it could be an interesting season.
Pescara have been promoted as champions of Serie B and are rewarded with the visit of giants Inter Milan on the opening weekend. They were very good at home last season with a record of fifteen wins, two draws and four losses. They also scored more than two goals a game at home on average and thoroughly deserved their promotion. They have a star man in Vladimir Weiss who got his grounding in the Premier League and looked a decent player when given a rare chance. There is also plenty of experience of Serie A within their squad and they will be hoping that it sees them through the season intact.
Inter were shambolic last season, and have been ever since the treble under Jose Mourinho. The current manager is the ex-youth team coach Andrea Stramaccioni who has no previous experience of anything like this level. He sort of stabilised the side after Claudio Ranieri's brief spell, but it is still to be seen whether he can bring any long term success to the club. They have shipped out Samuel Eto'o and numerous others from the Champions League winning squad and the only players of note left are now Maicon, Diego Milito, Esteban Cambiasso, Wesley Sneijder and Javier Zanetti. It could be argued that all of these have been shadows of themselves since that win and Sneijder in particular often seems more disruptive to the team than helpful. They're a club in need of direction and I don't think such a young, inexperienced manager is the way to get that.
Lay Inter Milan at 1.65 on Betfair. 2 points.
Stuttgart v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1945
Last season Germany's Bundesliga was very kind to me and I'll be hoping for that to continue this term. However comma it is very hard to see any great bets this weekend with so little to really go on. Dortmund kick off on Friday night, but at 1.3 I don't think they're backable at all. Bayern could be a lay away to newly promoted Greuther, but you'd have to be brave to get stuck in. I think the only one for me is Stuttgart hosting Wolfsburg. Stuttgart had a good, if not brilliant, season last year and finished in sixth position to qualify for European football. They were good at home winning ten of seventeen, scoring thirty six and only conceding seventeen. Since they have not really made any wholesale changes to their squad I would expect them to be about the same again come May. The likes of Dortmund and Monchengladbach have shown the benefit of stability and this should also benefit the Swabians. The 2-0 win against Dinamo Moscow in this weeks Europa League should also have them match fit and firing.
Wolfsburg had a topsy turvy season last time out and finished adrift of European football, but well away from relegation in the end. After their disastrous start they will have been quietly pleased with that, but with their title win still not that long ago will be hoping for an improvement this season. It is not hard to see where their problems lay last season, their away form was absolutely hopeless. They lost eleven of seventeen, with three draws and three wins and with a goal difference of minus twenty. They've not done a great deal of business over the summer that I have seen either so I think they may be more settled, but I don't think that Stuttgart will fear them particularly.
Back Stuttgart at 2.05 with William Hill. 2 points.
Orduspor v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1800
Orduspor signed some experienced players over the summer and are expected to consolidate their position in the Super Lig this time out. A 0-0 draw away at Mersin Idman Yurdu last weekend did nothing to dampen those thoughts for me. The key to doing well in Turkey doesn't seem to be too difficult, you need to have some organisation at the back and some flair in attack. If you can also throw in some midfielders who are not completely headless then you're not far off the Europa places. The midfielder and captain Jean-Jaques Gosso is a good player at this level and provides plenty of hard yards for his team. The experience of both Selcuk Sahin in defence and Bogdan Stancu in attack also mean the spine of the side is pretty strong and should see them avoid scrapping at the foot of the table. Home wins are always valuable and they should view this as a winnable match.
Eskisehirspor have had a few good seasons recently, but have not started this one so well. They were well beaten by a less than inspiring Marseille side in Europe last week to exit the Europa League before the group stage and then started the season with a disastrous last minute home loss to newly promoted Akhisar. The strong area of recent years has been their excellent defence, which has meant they have only needed to score a few goals to take 1-0 wins and keep high in the table. If this defensive solidity were to crumble, as it appears it may have, then they do not have enough goals in the side to stay safe. They will probably pull themselves together, but I think they're worth opposing in their current state.
Back Orduspor at 2.6 with SportingBet. 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray, Sunday 1945
The first Istanbul derby of the season is on Sunday with fallen Besiktas hosting champions Gala. Since following Turkish football I have noticed a similar pricing on Besiktas as you often see on Liverpool in England. People recognise the name, and they have always been a big side around the top three places, but they're no longer a force at all. They will finish near the top of the table in terms of positions because of their spending power and the relative weakness of the rest of the division, but they're miles off Gala and Fener. But, often they're a much shorter price than I think they should be because of this perceived strength. They do have some handy players like Manuel Fernandes who was briefly out of contract this summer and should really have found a better team, but there are too many like Simao and Ricardo Quaresma only in it for the pay cheque.
Gala, as mentioned, are a lot better than Besiktas on paper and on the pitch. They might even surprise a few people in the Champions League with a well put together side. The Uruguyan goalkeeper Fernando Muslera is excellent and probably deserves a better league to show off his talents. In defence Tomas Ujfalusi and Sabri Sarioglu are both experienced enough to know how to deal with most of the threats this division offers. Felipe Melo and the young Selcuk Inan are a good midfield pairing with Melo looking reborn after leaving Juventus on loan last season and then arranging the same deal again for this season. After signing last seasons league top scorer Burak Yilmaz many assumed he would partner the always hard working Johan Elmander in attack, but such has been Umur Bulut's form with ten goals in eight matches that he has yet to start. Basically Gala are spoilt for choice and should not be short of motivation to win.
Back Galatasaray at 2.3 with Stan James. 2 points.
Thursday, 23 August 2012
Thursday, 16 August 2012
Some Season's Start Here...
Welcome back everyone! After my hugely disappointing Euro2012 tipping escapades I will be looking to get back in business with the new seasons starting this week and next around Europe. This weekend sees England's Premier League, Turkey's Super Lig and Spain's Primera all kicking off so we'll be looking within them.
Also to bring the column in line with 'real' tipping services we will now be introducing a points system for how much to place on each bet. This is something I employ in my personal betting as whilst every choice I make I think represents a backable bet, I fancy some more than others and bet accordingly. There will also be a running total introduced. Every weekend will include last week's profit/loss with monthly updates too.
The points system is a 5 point one, with each point representing 20% of your maximum single bet stake. Therefore if your maximum stake is £25, then a 2 point bet would represent £10 and so on.
We'll kick off with some loud tunes from Refused with Protest Song '68.
QPR v Swansea, Saturday 1500
No early kick off in the Premier League so there is a big bundle of matches at 1500. This one is the first to grab me. I can only see QPR improving this term under Mark Hughes. Whilst I'm no huge fan of his personality and constant bleeting about how he was 'unfairly' sacked from Man City and the way he left Fulham, he can build a mid-table side. With Joey Barton also a constant pain dependent upon his mood, his twelve match ban may also work in Hughes favour if he can remove him from first-team routines. The loan signing of Djibril Cisse being made permanent looks a great move to me. He was good whilst on loan last season, except for the obvious disciplinary procedures which hopefully have been cut down after a summer to cool off. Also getting hold of Junior Hoilett was a real coup. The lively forward looked excellent in an often poor Blackburn side last season and adds extra attacking impetus, goals and assists. Hughes tends to build organised defences too and the signing of Rob Green is definitely an upgrade on Paddy Kenny in goal too. I think they could go well, and particularly at the compact Loftus Road.
Swansea did very well last season after promotion and won a number of plaudits for the way Brendan Rodgers had them playing. Unfortunately for the club Rodgers moved on to Liverpool and took key central midfielder Joe Allen with him. In has come Michael Laudrup, who has a mixed record in La Liga. He made Getafe a very good side and got them into Europe before failing at Mallorca miserably and walking out after numerous disagreements. Either of these things could happen at Swansea! He will probably look to continue the way Swansea have been playing, but has brought in some familiar players to him from Spain like Michu and Jonathan De Guzman. Both of these looked good players in Spain, and Michu was the highest scoring midfielder outside of Barcelona and Madrid, but adapting quickly may prove tough. I think Swansea are best avoided early on until everything settles down under Laudrup.
Back QPR at 2.1 with Stan James. 2 Points.
Newcastle v Tottenham, Saturday 1730
Two teams who excelled at points last season meet in the first match on Sky this season on Saturday. Newcastle surprised many people when their new signings gelled quickly to stay the course and finish in fifth last season. The summer has seen relatively little activity in or out so far at St James Park with Alan Pardew looking for full backs, but so far not bringing anyone in. The worry of whether they can maintain their position is a widely asked question at the moment, but the stability they have compared to many around them should work in their favour I think. Papiss Cisse's signing in January freshened up an already good attack and gives them a very good front three of Hatem Ben Arfa, Demba Ba and Cisse. This should worry most defences as they are all quick, all can dribble and all pose a goal threat. Cheik Tiote may miss this match, but then should return to form a brilliant partnership with Yohan Cabaye in the middle and the defence looks solid when everyone is fit. I think they'll go well again.
Tottenham moved pretty quickly to replace Harry Redknapp with Andres Villas Boas, but have then strangely seemed to not buy him anyone in a squad that is missing quality and numbers in key areas. This can often be seen when Redknapp leaves a club as he plans short term and often the incoming replacement suffers the consequences of this. Spurs have the over forty Brad Friedel in goal, decent full backs, a selection of crocked centre backs, lack of passing ability in midfield, injury prone wide players and one senior striker in Jermain Defoe. The sales of Luka Modric and Steven Pienaar added to Ledley King's retirement and Louis Saha, Ryan Nelsen, William Gallas and Emanuel Adebayor all leaving the club means I would be extremely worried as a fan. They have no time to add players before this match and I could see Newcastle getting a relatively easy early win.
Back Newcastle at 2.7 with William Hill. 3 Points.
Manchester City v Southampton, Sunday 1600
The champions return to action hosting newly promoted Southampton this Sunday. Having watched the Community Shield last weekend and seen Mancini continue his pre-season experimenting with 3-4-1-2 I would expect a return to a 4-2-3-1 in this match. Stefan Savic again looked like a rabbit in the headlights at times and surely Mancini will not persist with the formation unless someone more comfortable at centre back can be found. The good news from the match was that they got a good warm-up match and the strikers looked sharp. At the end of last season it looked like the beginnings of a good partnership between Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez and they both looked excellent against Chelsea. I think Mancini will probably falter again in the Champions League, but he'll retain the title as I fail to see any obvious weaknesses in the squad and the strikers mostly look hungry. It is an ominous sign for the rest of the league. If he can get another international centre back to add to the excellent Vincent Kompany and Joleon Lescott then they shouldn't falter like they did last season to let man Utd back in to the title chase. The strikers could get off to a brilliant start against Saints.
Southampton 'did a Norwich' and earnt back-to-back promotions from League 1 to the Premier League last season. The similarities in the sides don't end there either. Both have looked to the lower leagues and bought players consistently performing well and given them a chance, although Southampton have a very good youth academy bringing more players through. Then there is Rickie Lambert and Grant Holt. Both have scored loads of goals and never been given a chance until the last two seasons at a higher level. Holt thrived last season by using his strength in alliance with more than decent technique to provide Norwich with numerous goals and Saints fans will be hoping for the same from Lambert. I think they may be disappointed as I think Holt is the superior player and has more intelligence to his game. I fail to see how a mostly Championship side stops a thrashing here.
Back Manchester City -2.0 Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Bet365. 2 Points.
Celta Vigo v Malaga, Saturday 1800
The Spanish Primera returns on Saturday afternoon and first up is promoted Celta hosting previously free-spending Malaga. Celta had a very good run in the Primera in the late nineties and early part of this century before being bitten by money problems and falling to the Segunda and having to start from scratch. They have always been involved in the promotion picture though and finally climbed back this time round. They have a fairly raucous stadium who back them every week and last season conceded the joint least goals in their division. This should serve them well in the Primera as aside from the big boys most teams actually don't score too many and if they can get their forwards firing they'll have a very good chance of being clear of relegation worries. The fact they were also top scorers in the Segunda last season suggests they might.
Malaga were being widely tipped to be a future Champions League regular after the arrival of oil money two summers ago and an influx of talent including Ruud Van Nistelrooy, Santi Cazorla and Joaquin. However comma this summer has seen the wheels fall of spectacularly with revelations players have gone unpaid and sales have needed to be made to just carry on. This has seen Van Nistelrooy encouraged to retire (he did) and Santi Cazorla sold to Arsenal with more departures expected. They were challenging for the Champions League most of last season, but even this was almost by default with nobody aside from Barcelona and Real Madrid being able to perform every week. They were awful at times and particularly bad away from home. Celta were 3.2 shots for this match at the start of the week and have been cut a lot, but they still look a bet to me.
Back Celta De Vigo at 2.4 with BlueSq. 2 Points.
Mallorca v Espanyol, Saturday 2200
A side on the up meets a side on the slide on Saturday late evening in Spain. Mallorca were something of a force in Spain around a decade ago with the likes of Samuel Eto'o in the side, but have since fallen well off those heights. As with many clubs in Spain this is due to them almost being encouraged to invest well beyond their means on a gamble of Champions League football and then being left almost bankrupt if this is not achieved. If you imagine the Leeds situation at about 80%, it probably applies to at least ten sides in Spain's top division. The fact Barcelona and Real Madrid take so much TV money also compounds the problem. Anyway, Mallorca were fortunate to escape relegation last season and with the newly promoted sides looking alright they may not be so lucky this time. There's again been little activity to improve the playing squad and they may well struggle from the start.
Espanyol have steadily improved since appointing Mauricio Pochettino three years ago. He has built up the squad without much money to spend and has been rewarded with the move to the new stadium seeing an increase in crowds, revenue and improved performances from the players. The goalkeeper Cristian Alvarez is very good and Javi Lopez in front of him is a solid centre back. There is also Sergio Garcia, Juan Albin and Joan Capdevilla all adding experience and nous to the squad with the club looking to either bring through or sign young players who can benefit from these older heads. So far it seems to be working and with the financial side of the club seeming very stable for a Spanish side they should be looking forward to once again making a push for Europe.
Lay Mallorca at 2.05 on Betfair. 1 Point.
Karabukspor v Trabzonspor, Saturday 1500
The first match in the Super Lig is Friday, but I think that's best watched to see how the two sides play rather than getting involved in. Karabukspor hardly set the world alight last season, but they were well clear of relegation and scored quite a few for a side in their position. Their definite weakness was a penchant for occasionally getting hammered by a side when the defence seemingly decided to have a day off. Barring these mad matches they were a decent mid-table side. This season will largely depend on whether they can eradicate these strange lapses and push on to make a play for European football. This will probably be beyond them, but I don't see them being too worried about relegation.
Trabzonspor lost star striker Burak Yilmaz to champions Galatasaray and he takes over half of the sides goals from last season with him. The fact he was also available for only around £5million has somewhat hamstrung any attempts to replace him. On the positive side Yilmaz was definitely a greedy player and needed the whole team set up to serve him to thrive, which might see him not do so well at Gala. Trabzon however could benefit from his removal from the side if other players step up to provide goals and assists. Presumably manager Senol Gunes has been bright enough to try to alter the teams set-up tactically, but it could take a while for them to really start functioning. They may be best avoided the first few weeks.
Lay Trabzonspor at 1.95 on Betfair. 1 Point.
Istanbul BB v Besiktas, Sunday 1800
Istanbul BB have proven in the last two seasons that they can perform very well when they want and have had a brilliant home record on the back of a solid defence. They only lost once at home in all of last season and only conceded fifteen goals in those seventeen games. They don't score very many either, but they don't need to when they are as adept as they are at keeping clean sheets. They also don't seem to have headline grabbing players that will get poached on move around every summer and this familiarity will definitely be a factor in how well the team defends as they will be more than used to each others strengths and weaknesses.
Besiktas have continued their hit and mostly miss transfer policy of buying and offloading in bulk every single summer in the hope they somehow throw together a wonder team one season. This has seen them casting off last seasons best player by some distance in Manuel Fernandes and then re-signing him. They have also added ex-Rangers goalkeeper Allan McGregor, which actually looks a rare excellent investment to me. However, they do still have the likes of Simao and Ricardo Quaresma who should really set this league alight, but are clearly only in Turkey for the large tax free pay cheques. They'll not be awful this season, but don't expect them to make any sort of impact on the title picture. I think they'll struggle in games like this as they traditionally have done.
Back Istanbul BB at 2.8 with Stan James. 1 Point.
Also to bring the column in line with 'real' tipping services we will now be introducing a points system for how much to place on each bet. This is something I employ in my personal betting as whilst every choice I make I think represents a backable bet, I fancy some more than others and bet accordingly. There will also be a running total introduced. Every weekend will include last week's profit/loss with monthly updates too.
The points system is a 5 point one, with each point representing 20% of your maximum single bet stake. Therefore if your maximum stake is £25, then a 2 point bet would represent £10 and so on.
We'll kick off with some loud tunes from Refused with Protest Song '68.
QPR v Swansea, Saturday 1500
No early kick off in the Premier League so there is a big bundle of matches at 1500. This one is the first to grab me. I can only see QPR improving this term under Mark Hughes. Whilst I'm no huge fan of his personality and constant bleeting about how he was 'unfairly' sacked from Man City and the way he left Fulham, he can build a mid-table side. With Joey Barton also a constant pain dependent upon his mood, his twelve match ban may also work in Hughes favour if he can remove him from first-team routines. The loan signing of Djibril Cisse being made permanent looks a great move to me. He was good whilst on loan last season, except for the obvious disciplinary procedures which hopefully have been cut down after a summer to cool off. Also getting hold of Junior Hoilett was a real coup. The lively forward looked excellent in an often poor Blackburn side last season and adds extra attacking impetus, goals and assists. Hughes tends to build organised defences too and the signing of Rob Green is definitely an upgrade on Paddy Kenny in goal too. I think they could go well, and particularly at the compact Loftus Road.
Swansea did very well last season after promotion and won a number of plaudits for the way Brendan Rodgers had them playing. Unfortunately for the club Rodgers moved on to Liverpool and took key central midfielder Joe Allen with him. In has come Michael Laudrup, who has a mixed record in La Liga. He made Getafe a very good side and got them into Europe before failing at Mallorca miserably and walking out after numerous disagreements. Either of these things could happen at Swansea! He will probably look to continue the way Swansea have been playing, but has brought in some familiar players to him from Spain like Michu and Jonathan De Guzman. Both of these looked good players in Spain, and Michu was the highest scoring midfielder outside of Barcelona and Madrid, but adapting quickly may prove tough. I think Swansea are best avoided early on until everything settles down under Laudrup.
Back QPR at 2.1 with Stan James. 2 Points.
Newcastle v Tottenham, Saturday 1730
Two teams who excelled at points last season meet in the first match on Sky this season on Saturday. Newcastle surprised many people when their new signings gelled quickly to stay the course and finish in fifth last season. The summer has seen relatively little activity in or out so far at St James Park with Alan Pardew looking for full backs, but so far not bringing anyone in. The worry of whether they can maintain their position is a widely asked question at the moment, but the stability they have compared to many around them should work in their favour I think. Papiss Cisse's signing in January freshened up an already good attack and gives them a very good front three of Hatem Ben Arfa, Demba Ba and Cisse. This should worry most defences as they are all quick, all can dribble and all pose a goal threat. Cheik Tiote may miss this match, but then should return to form a brilliant partnership with Yohan Cabaye in the middle and the defence looks solid when everyone is fit. I think they'll go well again.
Tottenham moved pretty quickly to replace Harry Redknapp with Andres Villas Boas, but have then strangely seemed to not buy him anyone in a squad that is missing quality and numbers in key areas. This can often be seen when Redknapp leaves a club as he plans short term and often the incoming replacement suffers the consequences of this. Spurs have the over forty Brad Friedel in goal, decent full backs, a selection of crocked centre backs, lack of passing ability in midfield, injury prone wide players and one senior striker in Jermain Defoe. The sales of Luka Modric and Steven Pienaar added to Ledley King's retirement and Louis Saha, Ryan Nelsen, William Gallas and Emanuel Adebayor all leaving the club means I would be extremely worried as a fan. They have no time to add players before this match and I could see Newcastle getting a relatively easy early win.
Back Newcastle at 2.7 with William Hill. 3 Points.
Manchester City v Southampton, Sunday 1600
The champions return to action hosting newly promoted Southampton this Sunday. Having watched the Community Shield last weekend and seen Mancini continue his pre-season experimenting with 3-4-1-2 I would expect a return to a 4-2-3-1 in this match. Stefan Savic again looked like a rabbit in the headlights at times and surely Mancini will not persist with the formation unless someone more comfortable at centre back can be found. The good news from the match was that they got a good warm-up match and the strikers looked sharp. At the end of last season it looked like the beginnings of a good partnership between Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez and they both looked excellent against Chelsea. I think Mancini will probably falter again in the Champions League, but he'll retain the title as I fail to see any obvious weaknesses in the squad and the strikers mostly look hungry. It is an ominous sign for the rest of the league. If he can get another international centre back to add to the excellent Vincent Kompany and Joleon Lescott then they shouldn't falter like they did last season to let man Utd back in to the title chase. The strikers could get off to a brilliant start against Saints.
Southampton 'did a Norwich' and earnt back-to-back promotions from League 1 to the Premier League last season. The similarities in the sides don't end there either. Both have looked to the lower leagues and bought players consistently performing well and given them a chance, although Southampton have a very good youth academy bringing more players through. Then there is Rickie Lambert and Grant Holt. Both have scored loads of goals and never been given a chance until the last two seasons at a higher level. Holt thrived last season by using his strength in alliance with more than decent technique to provide Norwich with numerous goals and Saints fans will be hoping for the same from Lambert. I think they may be disappointed as I think Holt is the superior player and has more intelligence to his game. I fail to see how a mostly Championship side stops a thrashing here.
Back Manchester City -2.0 Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Bet365. 2 Points.
Celta Vigo v Malaga, Saturday 1800
The Spanish Primera returns on Saturday afternoon and first up is promoted Celta hosting previously free-spending Malaga. Celta had a very good run in the Primera in the late nineties and early part of this century before being bitten by money problems and falling to the Segunda and having to start from scratch. They have always been involved in the promotion picture though and finally climbed back this time round. They have a fairly raucous stadium who back them every week and last season conceded the joint least goals in their division. This should serve them well in the Primera as aside from the big boys most teams actually don't score too many and if they can get their forwards firing they'll have a very good chance of being clear of relegation worries. The fact they were also top scorers in the Segunda last season suggests they might.
Malaga were being widely tipped to be a future Champions League regular after the arrival of oil money two summers ago and an influx of talent including Ruud Van Nistelrooy, Santi Cazorla and Joaquin. However comma this summer has seen the wheels fall of spectacularly with revelations players have gone unpaid and sales have needed to be made to just carry on. This has seen Van Nistelrooy encouraged to retire (he did) and Santi Cazorla sold to Arsenal with more departures expected. They were challenging for the Champions League most of last season, but even this was almost by default with nobody aside from Barcelona and Real Madrid being able to perform every week. They were awful at times and particularly bad away from home. Celta were 3.2 shots for this match at the start of the week and have been cut a lot, but they still look a bet to me.
Back Celta De Vigo at 2.4 with BlueSq. 2 Points.
Mallorca v Espanyol, Saturday 2200
A side on the up meets a side on the slide on Saturday late evening in Spain. Mallorca were something of a force in Spain around a decade ago with the likes of Samuel Eto'o in the side, but have since fallen well off those heights. As with many clubs in Spain this is due to them almost being encouraged to invest well beyond their means on a gamble of Champions League football and then being left almost bankrupt if this is not achieved. If you imagine the Leeds situation at about 80%, it probably applies to at least ten sides in Spain's top division. The fact Barcelona and Real Madrid take so much TV money also compounds the problem. Anyway, Mallorca were fortunate to escape relegation last season and with the newly promoted sides looking alright they may not be so lucky this time. There's again been little activity to improve the playing squad and they may well struggle from the start.
Espanyol have steadily improved since appointing Mauricio Pochettino three years ago. He has built up the squad without much money to spend and has been rewarded with the move to the new stadium seeing an increase in crowds, revenue and improved performances from the players. The goalkeeper Cristian Alvarez is very good and Javi Lopez in front of him is a solid centre back. There is also Sergio Garcia, Juan Albin and Joan Capdevilla all adding experience and nous to the squad with the club looking to either bring through or sign young players who can benefit from these older heads. So far it seems to be working and with the financial side of the club seeming very stable for a Spanish side they should be looking forward to once again making a push for Europe.
Lay Mallorca at 2.05 on Betfair. 1 Point.
Karabukspor v Trabzonspor, Saturday 1500
The first match in the Super Lig is Friday, but I think that's best watched to see how the two sides play rather than getting involved in. Karabukspor hardly set the world alight last season, but they were well clear of relegation and scored quite a few for a side in their position. Their definite weakness was a penchant for occasionally getting hammered by a side when the defence seemingly decided to have a day off. Barring these mad matches they were a decent mid-table side. This season will largely depend on whether they can eradicate these strange lapses and push on to make a play for European football. This will probably be beyond them, but I don't see them being too worried about relegation.
Trabzonspor lost star striker Burak Yilmaz to champions Galatasaray and he takes over half of the sides goals from last season with him. The fact he was also available for only around £5million has somewhat hamstrung any attempts to replace him. On the positive side Yilmaz was definitely a greedy player and needed the whole team set up to serve him to thrive, which might see him not do so well at Gala. Trabzon however could benefit from his removal from the side if other players step up to provide goals and assists. Presumably manager Senol Gunes has been bright enough to try to alter the teams set-up tactically, but it could take a while for them to really start functioning. They may be best avoided the first few weeks.
Lay Trabzonspor at 1.95 on Betfair. 1 Point.
Istanbul BB v Besiktas, Sunday 1800
Istanbul BB have proven in the last two seasons that they can perform very well when they want and have had a brilliant home record on the back of a solid defence. They only lost once at home in all of last season and only conceded fifteen goals in those seventeen games. They don't score very many either, but they don't need to when they are as adept as they are at keeping clean sheets. They also don't seem to have headline grabbing players that will get poached on move around every summer and this familiarity will definitely be a factor in how well the team defends as they will be more than used to each others strengths and weaknesses.
Besiktas have continued their hit and mostly miss transfer policy of buying and offloading in bulk every single summer in the hope they somehow throw together a wonder team one season. This has seen them casting off last seasons best player by some distance in Manuel Fernandes and then re-signing him. They have also added ex-Rangers goalkeeper Allan McGregor, which actually looks a rare excellent investment to me. However, they do still have the likes of Simao and Ricardo Quaresma who should really set this league alight, but are clearly only in Turkey for the large tax free pay cheques. They'll not be awful this season, but don't expect them to make any sort of impact on the title picture. I think they'll struggle in games like this as they traditionally have done.
Back Istanbul BB at 2.8 with Stan James. 1 Point.
Tuesday, 14 August 2012
Antepost Continued...
And so we march onwards down the league system in England. Most British bookmakers will be employing traders with some very good knowledge of these markets too, so don't expect any huge value. There is always something given to the big name sides who find themselves down the leagues though, so if you know of a more 'provincial' club who have invested wisely you may get a good price on them.
English Championship
Outright
As the top five/six/seven pull further clear of the rest in the Premier League and purse strings are tightened at all levels below that we are seeing a levelling out of ability. The top half of the Championship could probably all have as good a stab at staying in the Premier League as any of the bottom six do. This makes it quite difficult to pick a winner with any huge degree of confidence, but does mean there could be some good prices to have a flutter at.
The bookies have their shortest priced six as the three relegated clubs of Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves joined by three big names with varying degrees of investment, Leeds, Nottingham Forest and Leicester. This is perfectly understandable as most people will simply see one of these names and throw it in an accumulator thinking they must have a chance. I would move to rule out Leicester and Forest straight away personally. Whilst both certainly have backers with money, they have appointed managers who don't inspire any confidence from me. I think Nigel Pearson and Sean O'Driscoll have their qualities, but I don't see either as necessarily leading a promotion charge. I also like to see a natural goalscorer in any side I back for this and I don't think either side possesses one of those on present form.
All of Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves have question marks over their managers. Owen Coyle has presided over a period of slowly slipping backwards culminating in relegation at Bolton. He obviously is well liked within the game as he rarely seems to get much stick in the press and is able to borrow some very good players on loan. If he can get Stuart Holden and Chung-Yong Lee playing as they were when they return from injury then Bolton should be best placed to return to the top flight. He also has the likes of Chris Eagles, Keith Andrews, Mark Davies and Kevin Davies who should all thrive at this level. Blackburn have been on a huge recruitment drive over the summer which could be considered slightly hit and miss. Anyone who has paid attention to the running of the club will probably not be surprised by this at all as there has been a lack of clear leadership since Venky's bought the club. Danny Murphy looks a good signing, but Nuno Gomes best years were around a decade ago. I wouldn't want my money on such a basket case. As for Wolves, they have appointed Stale Solbakken who did very well in his native Denmark before not doing so well in Germany. His Copenhagen sides were hard working and had physical forwards and if he can initiate a similar style at Wolves he should do well in these lowered expectations compared to his time at Cologne. Again though, I would want to see how they start before diving in.
Leeds should be involved with Neil Warnock in charge, there is seemingly few better at getting a side into the play-off mix in the Championship. However comma his squad is now without last seasons first choice midfield as Norwich came back to finally pinch captain Robert Snodgrass. The loss of their most influential player will hurt them, but Warnock should make them a lot tougher to beat. Keep an eye on the players coming in before the transfer window shuts. If Warnock can be clever with these then they could well challenge.
Looking at the rest Brighton and Blackpool appeal to me. Both had good seasons last time out. Brighton came up and consolidated their position in the Championship whilst playing some good football. If they can get ex-Spain international Vicente fit more regularly then they could certainly have a say. Blackpool again re-shuffled the squad under manager Ian Holloway and were rewarded with an appearance in the play-offs. Much will depend on how much more can be coaxed out of Kevin Phillips and whether last season star performer Matty Phillips can be held on to. I'd be tempted to gamble on both being around, then the price becomes quite a good looking trading opportunity.
Back Bolton at 8.5 with ToteSport.
Back Blackpool TO TRADE at 19.0 with SkyBet.
English League 1
Outright
An interesting couple of divisions now, as whilst I certainly keep an eye on what is going on in both they are never likely to be an area of expertise for me. There are a few fallen names in this division now too with Sheffield United, Portsmouth and Coventry all involved. With Portsmouth's myriad of financial issues though noone is expecting a challenge to come from Fratton Park. You also have clubs on the rise like Crawley, Swindon and MK Dons all expected to make a bid for promotion too so it should be an interesting season ahead.
Sheffield United naturally lead the betting. They are really more suited to at the very least Championship football in terms of set-up and support, but find themselves as beaten play-off contenders last season. The loss of striker Ched Evans was a huge blow to them once he was found guilty and sentenced to three years in prison. He had been responsible for around half their goals and they noticeably dropped off in performance after his removal. With him not really being replaced I'd struggle to see them as favourites for the title, although I'm sure they will rarely be outside the top six.
Second up is MK Dons who have been tipped as contenders ever since the appointment of manager Karl Robinson. The youngest manager in the league when appointed, he has shown he can get plenty out of a limited budget and the players like Alan Smith who seem keen to play for him shows his reputation is already burgeoning within the game. With there being numerous contenders this season they could easily be the side that steps up to lead.
Then we have relegated Coventry who had struggled to maintain their Championship place for a couple of years and finally fell down. They have bought numerous players in over the summer and like a few other sides I would want to observe their start before deciding whether they're a good bet or not.
Swindon and Crawley both came up from League 2 and are immediately installed as contenders. There have been numerous sides who have come up and straight away made a challenge for promotion and it is easy to understand with the ability levels between League 1 and League 2 not very pronounced away from top and bottom. Crawley sold their star strikers during the season last time and also lost their manager, but clung on for promotion in the end. I think they're not to be backed this time as they may well find this is a natural level for them without more significant investment in the playing squad. Swindon have been on the up and up since appointing Paolo Di Canio as manager. It was certainly a gamble to give the notoriously hot-headed player the reigns, but the players have responded to him and those that haven't have been quickly shipped out. He has them playing good attacking football and I think they're a real back for this.
Back MK Dons at 9.0 with Coral.
Back Swindon at 11.0 with ToteSport.
English League 2
Outright
On to League 2 now and again I'm no expert so I would not be laying out huge sums on my suggestions, they're more as a guide/nit of interest. I'll also happily take advice/comments in the section under the article if you think I've missed something. All correspondence is most welcome!
Heading the market here are Rotherham and newly promoted Fleetwood. Rotherham are clearly very highly fancied at odds of around 4.5. I would always be wary of prices that short in such a large division where injuries and losses of form happen regularly. The other issue comes with the fact that if they are setting the division alight then clubs in higher divisions will look to take the best players in January. I see all of these as a reason not to be on Rotherham at that price. They'll surely trade higher at some point so I'd sit tight and wait for better odds if you're desperate to back them. Fleetwood looked very good last season in the Blue Square and have, in the main, kept that team together so far. There was even talk of Joey Barton joining on loan to give an idea of their resources. They could well figure similarly to Crawley last term with the benefit of a good side who are in winning form. They look far more attractive than Rotherham to me.
Outside of those I think Southend should have a good season under Paul Sturrock. He's got a good record at smaller clubs and had them playing some good football last season at times. I'd expect them to push on and in a tight league that could be enough to see them out in front. As a longer price I would probably take York City. They've only been promoted this season, but they've long been a force in the Blue Square. They too have kept the bulk of their promotion winning side together and should still have the good feeling amongst the squad that could get them off to a good start. I certainly think they'll be around the top half so they seem a good price.
Back Fleetwood at 7.0 with StanJames.
Back Southend at 19.0 with Ladbrokes.
Back York City Each Way at 34.0 with ToteSport.
English Championship
Outright
As the top five/six/seven pull further clear of the rest in the Premier League and purse strings are tightened at all levels below that we are seeing a levelling out of ability. The top half of the Championship could probably all have as good a stab at staying in the Premier League as any of the bottom six do. This makes it quite difficult to pick a winner with any huge degree of confidence, but does mean there could be some good prices to have a flutter at.
The bookies have their shortest priced six as the three relegated clubs of Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves joined by three big names with varying degrees of investment, Leeds, Nottingham Forest and Leicester. This is perfectly understandable as most people will simply see one of these names and throw it in an accumulator thinking they must have a chance. I would move to rule out Leicester and Forest straight away personally. Whilst both certainly have backers with money, they have appointed managers who don't inspire any confidence from me. I think Nigel Pearson and Sean O'Driscoll have their qualities, but I don't see either as necessarily leading a promotion charge. I also like to see a natural goalscorer in any side I back for this and I don't think either side possesses one of those on present form.
All of Bolton, Blackburn and Wolves have question marks over their managers. Owen Coyle has presided over a period of slowly slipping backwards culminating in relegation at Bolton. He obviously is well liked within the game as he rarely seems to get much stick in the press and is able to borrow some very good players on loan. If he can get Stuart Holden and Chung-Yong Lee playing as they were when they return from injury then Bolton should be best placed to return to the top flight. He also has the likes of Chris Eagles, Keith Andrews, Mark Davies and Kevin Davies who should all thrive at this level. Blackburn have been on a huge recruitment drive over the summer which could be considered slightly hit and miss. Anyone who has paid attention to the running of the club will probably not be surprised by this at all as there has been a lack of clear leadership since Venky's bought the club. Danny Murphy looks a good signing, but Nuno Gomes best years were around a decade ago. I wouldn't want my money on such a basket case. As for Wolves, they have appointed Stale Solbakken who did very well in his native Denmark before not doing so well in Germany. His Copenhagen sides were hard working and had physical forwards and if he can initiate a similar style at Wolves he should do well in these lowered expectations compared to his time at Cologne. Again though, I would want to see how they start before diving in.
Leeds should be involved with Neil Warnock in charge, there is seemingly few better at getting a side into the play-off mix in the Championship. However comma his squad is now without last seasons first choice midfield as Norwich came back to finally pinch captain Robert Snodgrass. The loss of their most influential player will hurt them, but Warnock should make them a lot tougher to beat. Keep an eye on the players coming in before the transfer window shuts. If Warnock can be clever with these then they could well challenge.
Looking at the rest Brighton and Blackpool appeal to me. Both had good seasons last time out. Brighton came up and consolidated their position in the Championship whilst playing some good football. If they can get ex-Spain international Vicente fit more regularly then they could certainly have a say. Blackpool again re-shuffled the squad under manager Ian Holloway and were rewarded with an appearance in the play-offs. Much will depend on how much more can be coaxed out of Kevin Phillips and whether last season star performer Matty Phillips can be held on to. I'd be tempted to gamble on both being around, then the price becomes quite a good looking trading opportunity.
Back Bolton at 8.5 with ToteSport.
Back Blackpool TO TRADE at 19.0 with SkyBet.
English League 1
Outright
An interesting couple of divisions now, as whilst I certainly keep an eye on what is going on in both they are never likely to be an area of expertise for me. There are a few fallen names in this division now too with Sheffield United, Portsmouth and Coventry all involved. With Portsmouth's myriad of financial issues though noone is expecting a challenge to come from Fratton Park. You also have clubs on the rise like Crawley, Swindon and MK Dons all expected to make a bid for promotion too so it should be an interesting season ahead.
Sheffield United naturally lead the betting. They are really more suited to at the very least Championship football in terms of set-up and support, but find themselves as beaten play-off contenders last season. The loss of striker Ched Evans was a huge blow to them once he was found guilty and sentenced to three years in prison. He had been responsible for around half their goals and they noticeably dropped off in performance after his removal. With him not really being replaced I'd struggle to see them as favourites for the title, although I'm sure they will rarely be outside the top six.
Second up is MK Dons who have been tipped as contenders ever since the appointment of manager Karl Robinson. The youngest manager in the league when appointed, he has shown he can get plenty out of a limited budget and the players like Alan Smith who seem keen to play for him shows his reputation is already burgeoning within the game. With there being numerous contenders this season they could easily be the side that steps up to lead.
Then we have relegated Coventry who had struggled to maintain their Championship place for a couple of years and finally fell down. They have bought numerous players in over the summer and like a few other sides I would want to observe their start before deciding whether they're a good bet or not.
Swindon and Crawley both came up from League 2 and are immediately installed as contenders. There have been numerous sides who have come up and straight away made a challenge for promotion and it is easy to understand with the ability levels between League 1 and League 2 not very pronounced away from top and bottom. Crawley sold their star strikers during the season last time and also lost their manager, but clung on for promotion in the end. I think they're not to be backed this time as they may well find this is a natural level for them without more significant investment in the playing squad. Swindon have been on the up and up since appointing Paolo Di Canio as manager. It was certainly a gamble to give the notoriously hot-headed player the reigns, but the players have responded to him and those that haven't have been quickly shipped out. He has them playing good attacking football and I think they're a real back for this.
Back MK Dons at 9.0 with Coral.
Back Swindon at 11.0 with ToteSport.
English League 2
Outright
On to League 2 now and again I'm no expert so I would not be laying out huge sums on my suggestions, they're more as a guide/nit of interest. I'll also happily take advice/comments in the section under the article if you think I've missed something. All correspondence is most welcome!
Heading the market here are Rotherham and newly promoted Fleetwood. Rotherham are clearly very highly fancied at odds of around 4.5. I would always be wary of prices that short in such a large division where injuries and losses of form happen regularly. The other issue comes with the fact that if they are setting the division alight then clubs in higher divisions will look to take the best players in January. I see all of these as a reason not to be on Rotherham at that price. They'll surely trade higher at some point so I'd sit tight and wait for better odds if you're desperate to back them. Fleetwood looked very good last season in the Blue Square and have, in the main, kept that team together so far. There was even talk of Joey Barton joining on loan to give an idea of their resources. They could well figure similarly to Crawley last term with the benefit of a good side who are in winning form. They look far more attractive than Rotherham to me.
Outside of those I think Southend should have a good season under Paul Sturrock. He's got a good record at smaller clubs and had them playing some good football last season at times. I'd expect them to push on and in a tight league that could be enough to see them out in front. As a longer price I would probably take York City. They've only been promoted this season, but they've long been a force in the Blue Square. They too have kept the bulk of their promotion winning side together and should still have the good feeling amongst the squad that could get them off to a good start. I certainly think they'll be around the top half so they seem a good price.
Back Fleetwood at 7.0 with StanJames.
Back Southend at 19.0 with Ladbrokes.
Back York City Each Way at 34.0 with ToteSport.
Friday, 10 August 2012
Premier League Antepost Excitement...
Well, hello again one and all. I've had a little break from going into any in-depth analysis and stuck to trying to get an edge on Olympic sports the bookies don't usually price up. I mention this to remind everyone that the best way to make a profit in the long term from gambling is to try and find a niche and stick to it. With sports like weightlifting a bookmaker is never going to have in it's staff a proper trader and will simply ask someone to take a look at it and have a stab at pricing the markets. This can lead to huge oversights as well as sometimes markets being left open and un-monitored when there are withdrawals having huge effects on the market. Similarly if you do your betting on the Bolivian Premier League in football and do plenty of research, you'll be a step ahead of the bookies. Just something to keep in mind if you're a serious punter.
As we are only a week away from the big kick-off in a number of European leagues now seems a good time to see what is about to bet on in the antepost markets. There can sometimes be some great prices about if you don't mind tying your money up for the best part of nine months. But, you also have to factor in that over the course of nine months many factors can come into play that could derail a bet. I would either look to bet large and look to trade your bet when the odds shorten and get out, or too just play for fun with Lucky 15's or multiples bets on each league.
We shall start with the league with the most markets, the English Premier League and will follow up with a look through the English lower divisions, then a look around Europe.
English Premier League
Outright
The bookies have this priced as a cakewalk for the two Manchester sides this season and I see little wrong in that assessment. Both Arsenal and Chelsea have made some interesting, possibly excellent, signings, but it is very hard to be confident of them being strong with such changes too early on.
Chelsea in particular have added some very promising attacking talent in what looks like a move away from the 4-3-3 that they have employed since the days of Jose Mourinho. This is not hard to understand as with Didier Drogba moved on to China and Frank Lampard being employed further back they no longer have the most potent threats that system relied upon. They may well stick to a 4-3-3, but I would expect it to be much more fluid and pacey with Eden Hazard, Oscar and Juan Mata all behind Fernando Torres at points. I also have the feeling that Roberto Di Matteo is merely a stop-gap appointment and how he will cope with this array of attacking talent is anyone's guess. We could well see them flounder, play like Ossie Ardiles era Tottenham or blow most teams away. If you think it will all go together then I would recommend taking their price as it is pretty good if that happens, personally I think I'll avoid them for now.
Arsenal and Arsene Wenger seem set on re-writing their long heralded aim of bringing through the next generation of Invincibles from within the club. With every summer seemingly seeing the previous seasons stand out player leaving it's probably understandable Wenger is turning to players at their peak already. It looks increasingly like Robin Van Persie will leave so I'm going with the assumption he does. Arsenal have always shopped in the second tier of players, even the likes of Patrick Vieira and Thierry Henry had question marks over them when joining the club. This summer has been no different with Lukas Podolski failing to sparkle outside of Cologne previously, Olivier Giroud being a late bloomer and only scoring in Ligue Un and also Santi Cazorla having never been on a 'big' clubs shopping list. I would mark them up as the same as Chelsea personally in the maybe's column, although slightly further out in the betting. Question marks will always remain over the cover the midfield provide for the defence and if they sell Alex Song and bring in Nuri Sahin then I'd be more confident with him and Mikel Arteta in the middle sitting deeper. They are probably best avoided to begin with.
Manchester United are recently very tempting to write off with obvious areas of weakness in both full back positions and still in the centre of midfield. With Alex Ferguson again complaining about a lack of value in the transfer market it is hard not to get the impression his hands are tied when it comes to a big buy. The addition of Shinji Kagawa is an excellent one in my opinion and should provide the technique and flair that Wayne Rooney shows in flashes much more regularly. I would not be shocked to see Rooney again asked to play constantly at the peak of the attack and Kagawa, Nani, Valencia and Young doing the running and crossing. Rooney can flourish in this if he is disciplined enough to stick to the task and I'd not be surprised to see him run up a large goal tally. At present there is still a gaping hole in the centre of midfield that is currently filled by a rotating cast next to Michael Carrick. The ageing legs of Ryan Giggs and the eternally disappointing Anderson are not the answer and many United fans would still like to see a destroyer in there to leave Carrick to do what he can do very well in simply recycling the ball. Having Nemanja Vidic back at centre half should not be underestimated as he is by far their best defender and missed a large part of last season when they performed pretty well anyway. I would expect to see more of Phil Jones and Chris Smalling in defence at points, with Smalling possibly replacing Rafael if he does not improve on the defensive side of his game. Left back I would still expect to see someone brought in to challenge if not replace Patrice Evra who has been poor now for eighteen months. You can't rule them out with Ferguson in charge, but I'd expect to see an improvement from City so on to them.
Manchester City have not been very active at all in the transfer market this summer with only really being linked with Robin Van Persie, who they don't really need, and Daniel Agger, who they probably do. In saying that about Agger it does seem they are being held to ransom somewhat and I'd not be surprised to see them looking elsewhere for a cheaper option as a fully fit Joleon Lescott and Vincent Kompany will still be first choice and rightly so. Defence really was City's strongest point when those two were fit, but they looked a lot less confident when Stefan Savic had to be brought in and he looked overwhelmed too. It would probably be best for all if an older international player was brought in as cover. Centre of midfield was also excellent with Gareth Barry having an excellent season and keeping Nigel De Jong out of the side with his simple passing game complimenting City's copious forwards well. Yaya Toure looked an absolute beast at points brushing players aside and marauding towards goal dangerously and I don't see why that would not continue this term. Then you have the abundance of riches in attack that City possess. You have Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli, David Silva, Edin Dzeko, Adam Johnson, Carlos Tevez and currently still Emanuel Adebayor on the books. Tevez seems a lot happier now with Aguero around and those two with Silva and Balotelli could be a brilliant forward line if they get regular time together. They can all interchange and cause havoc. The most important aspect though will be that having won the Premier League they should no longer fear it and could get even better, a frightening prospect. Roberto Mancini will be expected to do better in the Champions League this season though.
Back Manchester City at 2.37 with William Hill.
Relegation
The opposite end of the table has become something of a lottery in recent years, although usually with one stand out candidate like Portsmouth or Blackburn. This season there isn't really the luxury of that with no teams in dire straits or looking hopelessly out of their depth.
The promoted sides lead the betting as ever with Reading favourites and Southampton following them. Personally I think the Royals will be fine. The squad that won the Championship is intact and additions like Adrian Mariappa as well as the big signing of Roman Pavluychenko make them look to me a lot better than a few other sides. Southampton I worry about though. They concede goals with their attacking style and they will be further punished for that in the Premier League. They could 'do a Blackpool', but I think they'll return to the second tier. West Ham are expected to stay up by the bookies and with some decent buys and Sam Allardyce in charge I'd agree with that. They may be involved in the scrap at points, but I can't see them dropping.
You then have the likes of Norwich and Swansea who could succumb to second season syndrome under new management. Norwich have presumably appointed Chris Hughton as a steady hand and I think that's a good idea, they have also added a couple more good Championship performers such as Leeds captain Robert Snodgrass and I think this policy will see them good. Swansea have taken more of a punt on Michael Laudrup who has made some interesting signings from La Liga where he has previously worked. Michu had a fantastic season at Rayo last year and looks a potential bargain at only £2million, but they still face losing key men Joe Allen and Scott Sinclair to Liverpool and ex-manager Brendan Rodgers which would disrupt tactics a lot. They could well fall if Laudrup fails to get them going early on.
You also have the likes of Stoke and West Brom who could well be involved for opposite reasons. Stoke have become something of a mainstay in the Premier League under Tony Pulis, but murmurings are growing louder at the Britannia that their often turgid style could do with evolving. I get the impression Pulis has signed flair players like Tuncay to appease the fans, but has not trusted them thereafter to actually put in the starting line-up. If the fans turn then t could be a long season and difficult for them. West Brom have appointed eternal assistant Steve Clarke to the managers position following the departure of Roy Hodgson. I'm no fan of long time number two's being pushed into managerial positions because of the suspicion of why they have always been behind the scenes. I think this could well backfire on WBA, as good a defensive coach as Clarke is I don't see him galvanising a side.
Back Southampton at 2.37 with BetVictor.
Back Swansea at 3.25 with Boylesports.
Back West Bromwich Albion at 5.5 with BetInternet.
Top Goalscorer
The other main market for betting is always Top Goalscorer. The two men that head the market are Sergio Aguero and Wayne Rooney and again I think that's correct from the bookies. What Fernando Torres is doing so near them in price though I'm not sure. He could rediscover his touch, but I would suggest after a dire eighteen months he should be further out in the betting.
With my opinion that the two Manchester clubs are set to dominate you have to look at their main men as the only realistic bets to win outright. Sergio Aguero is in my opinion the best player in the entire division and settled straight in last season and scored plenty of goals. The main issue would be rotation with City having so many forwards and multiple priorities. Roberto Mancini must be aware he needs to get to at least the knockout stages of the Champions League this season and will surely rest Aguero where necessary to keep him ready for these matches. I still think he's a good bet, but with him the same price as Rooney I think the United man is the bet of the two. It is well documented that Rooney dislikes rotation and will play in every match that he is picked for, giving Alex Ferguson a great bonus. If, as I think, he is also simply asked to play at the peak of the attack then he should be fresher more than Aguero who will no doubt be given a much looser role at City.
After these two you have to look for an Each Way bet I think and there's a few options. I would imagine goals will be shared at Chelsea so I can't back any of them. Arsenal will presumably be looking to supply Olivier Giroud with as many chances as possible as he is much more of a target man than they have had in the past. With forwards like Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla added this looks the case. I certainly don't think he's a bad bet, but it might be worth watching the Gunners first couple of games to see how they line-up before diving in. I would rule out Newcastle's African pair of Papiss Cisse and Demba Ba with the African Nations on the horizon. I do like the look of the two strikers on either side of the Mersey though. Nikola Jelavic looked fantastic at the tail end of last season after moving from Rangers and I would expect him to pick up where he left off with Steven Pienaar and Steven Naismith added to supply him the ball. Fabio Borini could thrive if left alone up front for Liverpool with the likes of Luis Suarez, Stewart Downing and presumably Joe Allen asked to look for him in the box at all opportunities. The diminutive striker is, to coin a phrase, a 'fox in the box' and as that often entails will require the supply to be a success. I'd gamble on Brendan Rodgers getting him that supply.
If you want a real long odds play then I'd look at Reading's Pavel Pogbrebnyak and QPR's Djibril Cisse. I'm a believer that in this market you should look for players who are the focal points of their teams attacks and both of these fit the bill. You would imagine both will play whenever they are fit and both crucially have experience of regularly scoring in the Premier League last season.
To Win
Back Wayne Rooney at 10.0 with BetVictor.
Each Way
Back Nikola Jelavic at 31.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Fabio Borini at 41.0 with BetVictor.
Back Pavel Pogbrebnyak at 101.0 at BetVictor.
Back Djibril Cisse at 81.0 with BetFred.
As we are only a week away from the big kick-off in a number of European leagues now seems a good time to see what is about to bet on in the antepost markets. There can sometimes be some great prices about if you don't mind tying your money up for the best part of nine months. But, you also have to factor in that over the course of nine months many factors can come into play that could derail a bet. I would either look to bet large and look to trade your bet when the odds shorten and get out, or too just play for fun with Lucky 15's or multiples bets on each league.
We shall start with the league with the most markets, the English Premier League and will follow up with a look through the English lower divisions, then a look around Europe.
English Premier League
Outright
The bookies have this priced as a cakewalk for the two Manchester sides this season and I see little wrong in that assessment. Both Arsenal and Chelsea have made some interesting, possibly excellent, signings, but it is very hard to be confident of them being strong with such changes too early on.
Chelsea in particular have added some very promising attacking talent in what looks like a move away from the 4-3-3 that they have employed since the days of Jose Mourinho. This is not hard to understand as with Didier Drogba moved on to China and Frank Lampard being employed further back they no longer have the most potent threats that system relied upon. They may well stick to a 4-3-3, but I would expect it to be much more fluid and pacey with Eden Hazard, Oscar and Juan Mata all behind Fernando Torres at points. I also have the feeling that Roberto Di Matteo is merely a stop-gap appointment and how he will cope with this array of attacking talent is anyone's guess. We could well see them flounder, play like Ossie Ardiles era Tottenham or blow most teams away. If you think it will all go together then I would recommend taking their price as it is pretty good if that happens, personally I think I'll avoid them for now.
Arsenal and Arsene Wenger seem set on re-writing their long heralded aim of bringing through the next generation of Invincibles from within the club. With every summer seemingly seeing the previous seasons stand out player leaving it's probably understandable Wenger is turning to players at their peak already. It looks increasingly like Robin Van Persie will leave so I'm going with the assumption he does. Arsenal have always shopped in the second tier of players, even the likes of Patrick Vieira and Thierry Henry had question marks over them when joining the club. This summer has been no different with Lukas Podolski failing to sparkle outside of Cologne previously, Olivier Giroud being a late bloomer and only scoring in Ligue Un and also Santi Cazorla having never been on a 'big' clubs shopping list. I would mark them up as the same as Chelsea personally in the maybe's column, although slightly further out in the betting. Question marks will always remain over the cover the midfield provide for the defence and if they sell Alex Song and bring in Nuri Sahin then I'd be more confident with him and Mikel Arteta in the middle sitting deeper. They are probably best avoided to begin with.
Manchester United are recently very tempting to write off with obvious areas of weakness in both full back positions and still in the centre of midfield. With Alex Ferguson again complaining about a lack of value in the transfer market it is hard not to get the impression his hands are tied when it comes to a big buy. The addition of Shinji Kagawa is an excellent one in my opinion and should provide the technique and flair that Wayne Rooney shows in flashes much more regularly. I would not be shocked to see Rooney again asked to play constantly at the peak of the attack and Kagawa, Nani, Valencia and Young doing the running and crossing. Rooney can flourish in this if he is disciplined enough to stick to the task and I'd not be surprised to see him run up a large goal tally. At present there is still a gaping hole in the centre of midfield that is currently filled by a rotating cast next to Michael Carrick. The ageing legs of Ryan Giggs and the eternally disappointing Anderson are not the answer and many United fans would still like to see a destroyer in there to leave Carrick to do what he can do very well in simply recycling the ball. Having Nemanja Vidic back at centre half should not be underestimated as he is by far their best defender and missed a large part of last season when they performed pretty well anyway. I would expect to see more of Phil Jones and Chris Smalling in defence at points, with Smalling possibly replacing Rafael if he does not improve on the defensive side of his game. Left back I would still expect to see someone brought in to challenge if not replace Patrice Evra who has been poor now for eighteen months. You can't rule them out with Ferguson in charge, but I'd expect to see an improvement from City so on to them.
Manchester City have not been very active at all in the transfer market this summer with only really being linked with Robin Van Persie, who they don't really need, and Daniel Agger, who they probably do. In saying that about Agger it does seem they are being held to ransom somewhat and I'd not be surprised to see them looking elsewhere for a cheaper option as a fully fit Joleon Lescott and Vincent Kompany will still be first choice and rightly so. Defence really was City's strongest point when those two were fit, but they looked a lot less confident when Stefan Savic had to be brought in and he looked overwhelmed too. It would probably be best for all if an older international player was brought in as cover. Centre of midfield was also excellent with Gareth Barry having an excellent season and keeping Nigel De Jong out of the side with his simple passing game complimenting City's copious forwards well. Yaya Toure looked an absolute beast at points brushing players aside and marauding towards goal dangerously and I don't see why that would not continue this term. Then you have the abundance of riches in attack that City possess. You have Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli, David Silva, Edin Dzeko, Adam Johnson, Carlos Tevez and currently still Emanuel Adebayor on the books. Tevez seems a lot happier now with Aguero around and those two with Silva and Balotelli could be a brilliant forward line if they get regular time together. They can all interchange and cause havoc. The most important aspect though will be that having won the Premier League they should no longer fear it and could get even better, a frightening prospect. Roberto Mancini will be expected to do better in the Champions League this season though.
Back Manchester City at 2.37 with William Hill.
Relegation
The opposite end of the table has become something of a lottery in recent years, although usually with one stand out candidate like Portsmouth or Blackburn. This season there isn't really the luxury of that with no teams in dire straits or looking hopelessly out of their depth.
The promoted sides lead the betting as ever with Reading favourites and Southampton following them. Personally I think the Royals will be fine. The squad that won the Championship is intact and additions like Adrian Mariappa as well as the big signing of Roman Pavluychenko make them look to me a lot better than a few other sides. Southampton I worry about though. They concede goals with their attacking style and they will be further punished for that in the Premier League. They could 'do a Blackpool', but I think they'll return to the second tier. West Ham are expected to stay up by the bookies and with some decent buys and Sam Allardyce in charge I'd agree with that. They may be involved in the scrap at points, but I can't see them dropping.
You then have the likes of Norwich and Swansea who could succumb to second season syndrome under new management. Norwich have presumably appointed Chris Hughton as a steady hand and I think that's a good idea, they have also added a couple more good Championship performers such as Leeds captain Robert Snodgrass and I think this policy will see them good. Swansea have taken more of a punt on Michael Laudrup who has made some interesting signings from La Liga where he has previously worked. Michu had a fantastic season at Rayo last year and looks a potential bargain at only £2million, but they still face losing key men Joe Allen and Scott Sinclair to Liverpool and ex-manager Brendan Rodgers which would disrupt tactics a lot. They could well fall if Laudrup fails to get them going early on.
You also have the likes of Stoke and West Brom who could well be involved for opposite reasons. Stoke have become something of a mainstay in the Premier League under Tony Pulis, but murmurings are growing louder at the Britannia that their often turgid style could do with evolving. I get the impression Pulis has signed flair players like Tuncay to appease the fans, but has not trusted them thereafter to actually put in the starting line-up. If the fans turn then t could be a long season and difficult for them. West Brom have appointed eternal assistant Steve Clarke to the managers position following the departure of Roy Hodgson. I'm no fan of long time number two's being pushed into managerial positions because of the suspicion of why they have always been behind the scenes. I think this could well backfire on WBA, as good a defensive coach as Clarke is I don't see him galvanising a side.
Back Southampton at 2.37 with BetVictor.
Back Swansea at 3.25 with Boylesports.
Back West Bromwich Albion at 5.5 with BetInternet.
Top Goalscorer
The other main market for betting is always Top Goalscorer. The two men that head the market are Sergio Aguero and Wayne Rooney and again I think that's correct from the bookies. What Fernando Torres is doing so near them in price though I'm not sure. He could rediscover his touch, but I would suggest after a dire eighteen months he should be further out in the betting.
With my opinion that the two Manchester clubs are set to dominate you have to look at their main men as the only realistic bets to win outright. Sergio Aguero is in my opinion the best player in the entire division and settled straight in last season and scored plenty of goals. The main issue would be rotation with City having so many forwards and multiple priorities. Roberto Mancini must be aware he needs to get to at least the knockout stages of the Champions League this season and will surely rest Aguero where necessary to keep him ready for these matches. I still think he's a good bet, but with him the same price as Rooney I think the United man is the bet of the two. It is well documented that Rooney dislikes rotation and will play in every match that he is picked for, giving Alex Ferguson a great bonus. If, as I think, he is also simply asked to play at the peak of the attack then he should be fresher more than Aguero who will no doubt be given a much looser role at City.
After these two you have to look for an Each Way bet I think and there's a few options. I would imagine goals will be shared at Chelsea so I can't back any of them. Arsenal will presumably be looking to supply Olivier Giroud with as many chances as possible as he is much more of a target man than they have had in the past. With forwards like Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla added this looks the case. I certainly don't think he's a bad bet, but it might be worth watching the Gunners first couple of games to see how they line-up before diving in. I would rule out Newcastle's African pair of Papiss Cisse and Demba Ba with the African Nations on the horizon. I do like the look of the two strikers on either side of the Mersey though. Nikola Jelavic looked fantastic at the tail end of last season after moving from Rangers and I would expect him to pick up where he left off with Steven Pienaar and Steven Naismith added to supply him the ball. Fabio Borini could thrive if left alone up front for Liverpool with the likes of Luis Suarez, Stewart Downing and presumably Joe Allen asked to look for him in the box at all opportunities. The diminutive striker is, to coin a phrase, a 'fox in the box' and as that often entails will require the supply to be a success. I'd gamble on Brendan Rodgers getting him that supply.
If you want a real long odds play then I'd look at Reading's Pavel Pogbrebnyak and QPR's Djibril Cisse. I'm a believer that in this market you should look for players who are the focal points of their teams attacks and both of these fit the bill. You would imagine both will play whenever they are fit and both crucially have experience of regularly scoring in the Premier League last season.
To Win
Back Wayne Rooney at 10.0 with BetVictor.
Each Way
Back Nikola Jelavic at 31.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Fabio Borini at 41.0 with BetVictor.
Back Pavel Pogbrebnyak at 101.0 at BetVictor.
Back Djibril Cisse at 81.0 with BetFred.
Friday, 29 June 2012
The End Of The Road...
Hello again all. I'll be honest first of all and admit this tournament I have made some errors in my assessments of teams relative strengths and weaknesses. I was far too confident on Poland's chances, and possibly a bit too enthusiastic about France also. On the other side of the coin, I was unfairly critical of the Czech Republic and also possibly overstated Germany's brilliance somewhat. As with all facets of life, you should learn from your mistakes and I hope that I have learnt something from this tournament. Namely that defence should always be the key area in a tournament side, and sadly it let down Germany when pushed.
The Wednesday night semi final between Iberian neighbours Portugal and Spain was as tight as most thought it would be. Portugal started the match clearly with the intention to press and harry Spain from as far back as possible, and it looked like it would work for them too. Nani also started the match very well, getting on the end of raking passes from Bruno Alves in particular and then ploughing forward to worry the Spanish defence. The problem for them came in that for all their efforts, there was noone there to give them a lead and something to hold on to later on. Cristiano Ronaldo made some good runs, but he did not have the end product and was probably slightly selfish as he often can be. His performance was probably best summed up by his choice to take the last 'hero' penalty when if he is the designated taker and Captain he really should have led from the front in my opinion. Nothing was going right for him all night and his team would have been best served by him occasionally laying it on for someone else.
Spain were all at sea in the first half as Portugal's pressing really seemed to ruffle them and stop them getting into their normal rhythm. The half time break saw Portugal seemingly come back out either tired on determined to simply play for a draw and it gave Spain back the initiative. In the second half of normal time they didn't really take advantage of this, although removing the lumbering Alvaro Negredo for Cesc Fabregas certainly saw them seem much more comfortable getting back to their strikerless formation. Once Jesus Navas was also introduced to add pace and width it was the start of a period of dominance Spain carried into extra time. They could well have got a goal in extra time were it not for some brilliant defending by the Portugese back four as well as a brilliant save from goalkeeper Rui Patricio from Andres Iniesta. This saw penalties as the decider and Spain held their nerve far better to progress to yet another major final.
The second semi final last night had Germany taking on their bogey side Italy in Warsaw. Manager Joachim Low should be looking back on some of his decisions in terms of personnel and formation with embarrassment for me. What on earth the point of seeing Miroslav Klose and Marco Reus as the best players against Greece then dropping them to the bench was only he can explain. I have been critical of Mario Gomez before now and I'll repeat my criticisms again. He is a lumbering, flat-track bully in every sense of the term. In a thrashing he will get you a goal or three, but against an organised defence his complete lack of movement leaves sides as good as down to ten men. Germany were not at their best, but with him as the only man in advanced positions they were never likely to score. After finding themselves two behind at half time both Klose and Reus entered the fray, but it was too late to save the side. The choice to move Mesut Ozil from playmaker after two brilliant performances to accommodate the distinctly average Toni Kroos was also baffling and hopefully Low will be asked serious questions on his return to Germany.
Italy played the same game they did against England in effect, and once again it was enough to see off a very talented German side. The truly amazing thing for me was how presumably the German coaching staff have watched Italy and their only attack seems to be the ball from Andrea Pirlo or Ricardo Montolivo over the top to Mario Balotelli, and yet they were undone by it. The first goal from Balotelli was down to a complete mix up in the German defence allowing him to sneak in and head Italy in front, but the second was a comedy of errors. A simple over the top pass should have been intercepted by Philip Lahm, who instead seemed in about four minds as to what he would do and in the end chose to watch it over his head before forlornly chasing after the forward. The finish from Balotelli was important as he has seemed unwilling to pull the trigger all tournament and that must bode well for the final now. The second half was a masterclass in what the Italians do better than anyone else, hold onto a lead. The back four barely put a foot wrong until the late concession of a penalty by the otherwise excellent Federico Balzaretti. It was too late for Germany though and Italy progressed to meet Spain in Kiev.
Italy v Spain, Sunday 1945
So, we now reach the conclusion of the last two weeks in Kiev for the final of Euro 2012. Whilst I mentioned Italy as a dark horse I am surprised to see them make the final, but they've deserved it. You could criticise other sides for not making more of an effort to shut down Andrea Pirlo and therefore stop their most creative talent, but they haven't and Italy have taken full advantage. There is probably also something to be said for Daniele De Rossi's role as a marauding defensive midfielder, almost performing the protector role Gennaro Gattuso performed for so many years with distinction. The removal of the ineffective Thiago Motta for Ricardo Montolivo in the last two matches has also seen a better all round performance. Motta is a very effective defensive midfielder, but Cesare Prandelli's choice to almost play him as a trequartista in the group stages looked as flawed on paper as it proved on the pitch. Montonlivo plays naturally for Fiorentina in a more advanced position and has added another option for the Italian defence to play through looking for the forwards Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano. These two have formed an impressive partnership in the knockout games against England and Germany with Balotelli playing as a target man of sorts and Cassano having a free role to roam behind and pull the opposition defences around as much as he can. This was all too apparent against Germany where he opened up all manner of gaps for Baloteeli to exploit, as he did perfectly for his second goal. I have been called up on my criticism of his seeming unwillingness to pull the trigger in previous matches, but he let go against Germany and got a brace to put him in a confident mood for the final. As for the defence, it's like the old saying goes 'There are only three things in life you can count on, death, taxes and a resolute Italian back four'. Joking aside, they were immense against a Germany side whose attackers had looked so impressive in most other matches. The return of Giorgio Chiellini to the starting line-up certainly aided them, as his organisation and experience were key in keeping the German's at bay. They definitely looked a lot more stable in defence than when they gifted England a few early chances in his absence. Having Chiellini and Balotelli fit and in form cannot be overstated in it's importance for the final on Sunday.
Spain have come in for criticism in this tournament for sticking with a style of play that certainly brings results for them, but at the expense of any real entertainment for the neutral. Many have been calling for a traditional forward to start for Spain and provide more cut and thrust and it seemed Vicente Del Bosque relented to the pressure and started Sevilla's Alvaro Negredo against Portugal. Having seen him lumber around and have the ball bounce off him for the first half it was no great surprise to see Cesc Fabregas brought on at half time and Spain revert back to their nominal 4-6-0 formation for the second period. This, coupled with Portugal abandoning their high pressure tactics, saw Spain gradually get into the game and assert their usual dominance of possession. Whilst they still didn't look particularly likely to score in normal time, they controlled the game to the extent Portugal were never going to. It is this almost anaesthatising of matches that makes them liable to criticism from neutrals. I am definitely in the camp that says they would like to see them go for the goals more, but it is incredibly hard to argue with a style of play that has them on the cusp of a unique hat-trick of tournament wins in a row. It is up to the opposition to beat them in reality, and as yet noone has established a system to beat them. Their pressurising of the ball will presumably put the pressure on Pirlo that England and Germany failed to do and it will be up to De Rossi and Montolivo to provide enough support to get him the time to pick his passes. Whilst Jordi Alba and Sergio Ramos have had good tournaments in defence for Spain, although they have mostly been praised for their attacking play. Gerard Pique came into the tournament off the back of a dreadful season for Barcelona and I think he is there to be gotten at by Balotelli. I think having seen Portugal limit Spain to just a couple of chances, the organised Italian defence should be able to do the same. In the group match between the two Italy showed they could create chances and with Balotelli on the back of a man of the match performance against Germany I think Spain are there to be layed.
Lay Spain at 2.2 on Betfair.
Back Both Teams To Score at 2.3 with BetVictor.
Back Mario Balotelli To Score Anytime at 3.75 with SportingBet.
The Wednesday night semi final between Iberian neighbours Portugal and Spain was as tight as most thought it would be. Portugal started the match clearly with the intention to press and harry Spain from as far back as possible, and it looked like it would work for them too. Nani also started the match very well, getting on the end of raking passes from Bruno Alves in particular and then ploughing forward to worry the Spanish defence. The problem for them came in that for all their efforts, there was noone there to give them a lead and something to hold on to later on. Cristiano Ronaldo made some good runs, but he did not have the end product and was probably slightly selfish as he often can be. His performance was probably best summed up by his choice to take the last 'hero' penalty when if he is the designated taker and Captain he really should have led from the front in my opinion. Nothing was going right for him all night and his team would have been best served by him occasionally laying it on for someone else.
Spain were all at sea in the first half as Portugal's pressing really seemed to ruffle them and stop them getting into their normal rhythm. The half time break saw Portugal seemingly come back out either tired on determined to simply play for a draw and it gave Spain back the initiative. In the second half of normal time they didn't really take advantage of this, although removing the lumbering Alvaro Negredo for Cesc Fabregas certainly saw them seem much more comfortable getting back to their strikerless formation. Once Jesus Navas was also introduced to add pace and width it was the start of a period of dominance Spain carried into extra time. They could well have got a goal in extra time were it not for some brilliant defending by the Portugese back four as well as a brilliant save from goalkeeper Rui Patricio from Andres Iniesta. This saw penalties as the decider and Spain held their nerve far better to progress to yet another major final.
The second semi final last night had Germany taking on their bogey side Italy in Warsaw. Manager Joachim Low should be looking back on some of his decisions in terms of personnel and formation with embarrassment for me. What on earth the point of seeing Miroslav Klose and Marco Reus as the best players against Greece then dropping them to the bench was only he can explain. I have been critical of Mario Gomez before now and I'll repeat my criticisms again. He is a lumbering, flat-track bully in every sense of the term. In a thrashing he will get you a goal or three, but against an organised defence his complete lack of movement leaves sides as good as down to ten men. Germany were not at their best, but with him as the only man in advanced positions they were never likely to score. After finding themselves two behind at half time both Klose and Reus entered the fray, but it was too late to save the side. The choice to move Mesut Ozil from playmaker after two brilliant performances to accommodate the distinctly average Toni Kroos was also baffling and hopefully Low will be asked serious questions on his return to Germany.
Italy played the same game they did against England in effect, and once again it was enough to see off a very talented German side. The truly amazing thing for me was how presumably the German coaching staff have watched Italy and their only attack seems to be the ball from Andrea Pirlo or Ricardo Montolivo over the top to Mario Balotelli, and yet they were undone by it. The first goal from Balotelli was down to a complete mix up in the German defence allowing him to sneak in and head Italy in front, but the second was a comedy of errors. A simple over the top pass should have been intercepted by Philip Lahm, who instead seemed in about four minds as to what he would do and in the end chose to watch it over his head before forlornly chasing after the forward. The finish from Balotelli was important as he has seemed unwilling to pull the trigger all tournament and that must bode well for the final now. The second half was a masterclass in what the Italians do better than anyone else, hold onto a lead. The back four barely put a foot wrong until the late concession of a penalty by the otherwise excellent Federico Balzaretti. It was too late for Germany though and Italy progressed to meet Spain in Kiev.
Italy v Spain, Sunday 1945
So, we now reach the conclusion of the last two weeks in Kiev for the final of Euro 2012. Whilst I mentioned Italy as a dark horse I am surprised to see them make the final, but they've deserved it. You could criticise other sides for not making more of an effort to shut down Andrea Pirlo and therefore stop their most creative talent, but they haven't and Italy have taken full advantage. There is probably also something to be said for Daniele De Rossi's role as a marauding defensive midfielder, almost performing the protector role Gennaro Gattuso performed for so many years with distinction. The removal of the ineffective Thiago Motta for Ricardo Montolivo in the last two matches has also seen a better all round performance. Motta is a very effective defensive midfielder, but Cesare Prandelli's choice to almost play him as a trequartista in the group stages looked as flawed on paper as it proved on the pitch. Montonlivo plays naturally for Fiorentina in a more advanced position and has added another option for the Italian defence to play through looking for the forwards Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano. These two have formed an impressive partnership in the knockout games against England and Germany with Balotelli playing as a target man of sorts and Cassano having a free role to roam behind and pull the opposition defences around as much as he can. This was all too apparent against Germany where he opened up all manner of gaps for Baloteeli to exploit, as he did perfectly for his second goal. I have been called up on my criticism of his seeming unwillingness to pull the trigger in previous matches, but he let go against Germany and got a brace to put him in a confident mood for the final. As for the defence, it's like the old saying goes 'There are only three things in life you can count on, death, taxes and a resolute Italian back four'. Joking aside, they were immense against a Germany side whose attackers had looked so impressive in most other matches. The return of Giorgio Chiellini to the starting line-up certainly aided them, as his organisation and experience were key in keeping the German's at bay. They definitely looked a lot more stable in defence than when they gifted England a few early chances in his absence. Having Chiellini and Balotelli fit and in form cannot be overstated in it's importance for the final on Sunday.
Spain have come in for criticism in this tournament for sticking with a style of play that certainly brings results for them, but at the expense of any real entertainment for the neutral. Many have been calling for a traditional forward to start for Spain and provide more cut and thrust and it seemed Vicente Del Bosque relented to the pressure and started Sevilla's Alvaro Negredo against Portugal. Having seen him lumber around and have the ball bounce off him for the first half it was no great surprise to see Cesc Fabregas brought on at half time and Spain revert back to their nominal 4-6-0 formation for the second period. This, coupled with Portugal abandoning their high pressure tactics, saw Spain gradually get into the game and assert their usual dominance of possession. Whilst they still didn't look particularly likely to score in normal time, they controlled the game to the extent Portugal were never going to. It is this almost anaesthatising of matches that makes them liable to criticism from neutrals. I am definitely in the camp that says they would like to see them go for the goals more, but it is incredibly hard to argue with a style of play that has them on the cusp of a unique hat-trick of tournament wins in a row. It is up to the opposition to beat them in reality, and as yet noone has established a system to beat them. Their pressurising of the ball will presumably put the pressure on Pirlo that England and Germany failed to do and it will be up to De Rossi and Montolivo to provide enough support to get him the time to pick his passes. Whilst Jordi Alba and Sergio Ramos have had good tournaments in defence for Spain, although they have mostly been praised for their attacking play. Gerard Pique came into the tournament off the back of a dreadful season for Barcelona and I think he is there to be gotten at by Balotelli. I think having seen Portugal limit Spain to just a couple of chances, the organised Italian defence should be able to do the same. In the group match between the two Italy showed they could create chances and with Balotelli on the back of a man of the match performance against Germany I think Spain are there to be layed.
Lay Spain at 2.2 on Betfair.
Back Both Teams To Score at 2.3 with BetVictor.
Back Mario Balotelli To Score Anytime at 3.75 with SportingBet.
Monday, 25 June 2012
We've Got Semi's...
Lol.
Hello again one and all. After admitting my guilt in some less than brilliant tips during the Group Stages of Euro 2012 I came storming back somewhat with the Quarter Finals. I got doubles up on the Portugal v Czech Rep and on Italy v England last night with profits on both nights for the other two matches too. It should be easier to predict when you know every player and system and it seems to have proved that way!
Both the Portugal v Czech Republic and Germany v Greece ended up with only one side looking likely to win in either match, although both suffered scares of sorts. In Portugal's case Cristiano Ronaldo managed to hit the post twice before he eventually netted the winner in the last fifteen minutes. The Real Madrid man's importance really can't be overstated in a side that does not look likely to score without his aid. The midfield and defence easily coped with the minimal threat posed by the Czech's too, with once again only the wingers impressing in fits and starts. Germany made numerous attacking changes for the match against Greece and showed off the skills of relative newcomers Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus. Reus in particular was a player who I have followed this season in the Bundesliga and he lived up to his performances for Monchengladbach by looking a constant threat and scoring too. Joachim Low is now in the envious position of having to pick three forwards from six who have all done well so far. And if he does reinstate any of Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski or Thomas Muller then they will be much fresher than their Italian counterparts. It is this amazing squad depth as much as anything else that makes them such hot favourites to triumph overall.
Spain's match followed the usual template sadly for those expecting any sort of thrills and spills. Laurent Blanc presumably fancied his side to soak up the Spanish pressure and hope for a break or set piece. Sadly his choice to leave his best wide players in the tournament, Samir Nasri and Jeremy Menez, left them looking completely impotent. Spain scored early after a rare cross from the byline from Jordi Alba was converted by Xabi Alonso. They then passed France into submission before gaining an injury time penalty which Alonso again scored. Last night saw England's match with Italy and it was actually more entertaining than I had expected. This was probably as much down to both sides taking most of the first half to settle down and both sides having chances. Mario Balotelli could have had three on a better night, but he hasn't looked completely confident in front of goal the whole tournament to me. England's defence again looked good, but Wayne Rooney has not performed since returning and was again ineffective and Scott Parker looked lost again at this level with a slower tempo. The better side probably did go through on balance. The fact that Germany have had extra rest and the match went to extra time and penalties should be a cause for concern for Cesare Prandelli though you would imagine.
Portugal v Spain, Wednesday 1945
These two neighbours go head to head on Wednesday night for the right to contest the final. Portugal are not anywhere near bad enough to be labelled a one man team, but they are possibly a one man attack. Whilst support comes from Nani, and probably Hugo Almeida after Helder Postiga's injury against the Czech's, if Ronaldo is subdued then Portugal don't look likely to score. Fortunately for Paulo Bento this has not been too much of an issue with Ronaldo looking brilliant in his last two matches and happy to have the responsibility of leading the side. Whatever you think of the man he is a brilliant player and second only to Lionel Messi in the world. Having led to Real Madrid to the La Liga title this season too he will know that if Portugal win Euro 2012 he will be nailed on to also take the World Player of The Year trophy himself. With the ego we all know he has this should provide all the motivation he needs to again perform. So far the defence has been relatively untested by a bombardment. Germany failed to sparkle when beating them 1-0 and Holland and Denmark only threatened sporadically, whilst the Czech's were no threat at all. A lot of this can be put down to the midfield three I think of Raul Meireles, Joao Moutinho and Miguel Veloso and there constant work off the ball. These three have all been clearly instructed to harry and chase the opposition then to look for Ronaldo or Nani when they have the ball themselves. Moutinho was the standout of the three against the Czech's with his constant intelligent use of the ball and assist for the goal. All three will need to be on top of their games to stop the Spanish midfield creating chances and to protect their defence. The fact that, rather than France, already play this system should actually help their cause and I would expect to see Ronaldo get a few chances if the midfield is playing well.
Spain have progressed largely without trouble, but have also failed to inspire either. They seem at times to be content to simply pass the ball around in midfield with no thought to grab a goal at all. Whether this is actually the gameplan or a reaction to the fact Xavi and Andres Iniesta are missing the dynamism of David Villa and club mate Messi to pass to is another question. The duty of being the furthest forward attacker has so far fallen to both Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres at different times. I think everyone is aware of Torres struggles since joining Chelsea last January and Fabregas has looked lively, but he is not a natural finisher. This has led to calls for either Fernando Llorente or Alvaro Negredo to get some time on the pitch to stake a claim from many in Spain as even the locals get bored by the lack of cutting edge the team has. The centre of defence is also not exactly secure at present with Gerard Pique coming off the back of his worst club season to date and Sergio Ramos not really being a natural centre back any more. Croatia and Italy both had chances against the Spaniard's and if they give up too many to Ronaldo he won't miss them all. They did come from behind to draw against Italy, but against a defence as well protected as Portugal's they may find it tougher. You can almost guarantee a tight match where Spain are involved as no team sees enough of the ball to run away with a match, and even fewer have the confidence to attack from the off. I wrote Portugal off pre-tournament, but I am now going to predict an upset and I think they will again make the final like they did at home in 2004.
Back Portugal To Qualify at 3.13 with StanJames.
Back Cristiano Ronaldo To Score Anytime at 3.0 with SportingBet.
Germany v Italy, Thursday 1945
The other Semi Final again sees two of Europe's most successful teams meeting. Germany have been mine and many others tip for the entire tournament from the outset and against Greece the attack finally came to life. Whilst Thomas Muller was doing a decent job for the team and Lukas Podolski had scored in the final group match, Joachim Low decided to rotate his entire forward line. This saw the introduction of seasoned campaigner Miroslav Klose and the two exciting young talents of Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus coming in. Both Klose and Reus scored in the 4-2 win and Schurrle certainly looked more lively than Muller or Podolski had for the majority of the tournament so far. The other benefit of this was that Mario Gomez and Podolski and Muller are completely rested now if they are restored to the starting line-up and that can only be a good thing for Germany. The defence has given away chances, as can be seen in conceding two to a Greek side with no great attacking talent, but this is probably more due to all of the defenders being allowed to march forward in the knowledge they'll score more than the opposition. Mats Hummels and Philip Lahm have both been found in shooting positions at times and they may well be asked to stay back a little more against a decent Italy side. There is also the fact Bastian Schweinsteiger is again carrying a knock and isn't training very much, but he should start again, albeit with slightly reduced mobility. Fortunately for him both Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil have been playing well so he should be able to sit back and simply pick passes again. I'm certain Italy will get chances, but I'm even more certain Germany will have more and possess better finishers in great form.
Italy came through on penalties against England and will be buoyant from that. However comma this must be weighed up against the two days less rest they have and the extra half hour they played for. There were also weaknesses again on show against England that would have been exploited by a better side. The defence gave away numerous chances that England's forwards failed to capitalise on in an opening half hour where they did not settle at all. If there is a repeat of this against Germany they could easily be two behind before they know what's happened. The loss of Giorgio Chiellini to injury is a huge miss for them as he, along with the ever excellent Gianluigi Buffon, is the main organiser of the defence and by far the most experienced of Italy's defenders. Once Italy had settled it was again Andrea Pirlo who dictated the way the game went. England's players presumably had not been instructed to apply extra pressure to the Juventus man and it allowed him to wander around picking up the ball and starting attacks almost at his leisure. I would foresee Sami Khedira being detailed to keep a close eye on him at all times and with him also likely to be feeling the effects of the Quarter Final at thirty three years old, Khedira will fancy his chances of stopping him. The other slight worry is that whilst Mario Balotelli has got himself into great positions throughout the tournament, he has looked edgy and unwilling to pull the trigger. If the bulk of Italy's chances again fall to him and he is off colour then they'll have no chance. All in all I think this is a step to far for an Italy side who have done well to get this far.
Back Germany at 1.9 with Paddy Power.
Back Marco Reus (only if he is named in the starting line-up) To Score Anytime at 3.75 with SkyBet.
Back Second Half in Half With Most Goals at 2.25 with Coral.
Hello again one and all. After admitting my guilt in some less than brilliant tips during the Group Stages of Euro 2012 I came storming back somewhat with the Quarter Finals. I got doubles up on the Portugal v Czech Rep and on Italy v England last night with profits on both nights for the other two matches too. It should be easier to predict when you know every player and system and it seems to have proved that way!
Both the Portugal v Czech Republic and Germany v Greece ended up with only one side looking likely to win in either match, although both suffered scares of sorts. In Portugal's case Cristiano Ronaldo managed to hit the post twice before he eventually netted the winner in the last fifteen minutes. The Real Madrid man's importance really can't be overstated in a side that does not look likely to score without his aid. The midfield and defence easily coped with the minimal threat posed by the Czech's too, with once again only the wingers impressing in fits and starts. Germany made numerous attacking changes for the match against Greece and showed off the skills of relative newcomers Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus. Reus in particular was a player who I have followed this season in the Bundesliga and he lived up to his performances for Monchengladbach by looking a constant threat and scoring too. Joachim Low is now in the envious position of having to pick three forwards from six who have all done well so far. And if he does reinstate any of Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski or Thomas Muller then they will be much fresher than their Italian counterparts. It is this amazing squad depth as much as anything else that makes them such hot favourites to triumph overall.
Spain's match followed the usual template sadly for those expecting any sort of thrills and spills. Laurent Blanc presumably fancied his side to soak up the Spanish pressure and hope for a break or set piece. Sadly his choice to leave his best wide players in the tournament, Samir Nasri and Jeremy Menez, left them looking completely impotent. Spain scored early after a rare cross from the byline from Jordi Alba was converted by Xabi Alonso. They then passed France into submission before gaining an injury time penalty which Alonso again scored. Last night saw England's match with Italy and it was actually more entertaining than I had expected. This was probably as much down to both sides taking most of the first half to settle down and both sides having chances. Mario Balotelli could have had three on a better night, but he hasn't looked completely confident in front of goal the whole tournament to me. England's defence again looked good, but Wayne Rooney has not performed since returning and was again ineffective and Scott Parker looked lost again at this level with a slower tempo. The better side probably did go through on balance. The fact that Germany have had extra rest and the match went to extra time and penalties should be a cause for concern for Cesare Prandelli though you would imagine.
Portugal v Spain, Wednesday 1945
These two neighbours go head to head on Wednesday night for the right to contest the final. Portugal are not anywhere near bad enough to be labelled a one man team, but they are possibly a one man attack. Whilst support comes from Nani, and probably Hugo Almeida after Helder Postiga's injury against the Czech's, if Ronaldo is subdued then Portugal don't look likely to score. Fortunately for Paulo Bento this has not been too much of an issue with Ronaldo looking brilliant in his last two matches and happy to have the responsibility of leading the side. Whatever you think of the man he is a brilliant player and second only to Lionel Messi in the world. Having led to Real Madrid to the La Liga title this season too he will know that if Portugal win Euro 2012 he will be nailed on to also take the World Player of The Year trophy himself. With the ego we all know he has this should provide all the motivation he needs to again perform. So far the defence has been relatively untested by a bombardment. Germany failed to sparkle when beating them 1-0 and Holland and Denmark only threatened sporadically, whilst the Czech's were no threat at all. A lot of this can be put down to the midfield three I think of Raul Meireles, Joao Moutinho and Miguel Veloso and there constant work off the ball. These three have all been clearly instructed to harry and chase the opposition then to look for Ronaldo or Nani when they have the ball themselves. Moutinho was the standout of the three against the Czech's with his constant intelligent use of the ball and assist for the goal. All three will need to be on top of their games to stop the Spanish midfield creating chances and to protect their defence. The fact that, rather than France, already play this system should actually help their cause and I would expect to see Ronaldo get a few chances if the midfield is playing well.
Spain have progressed largely without trouble, but have also failed to inspire either. They seem at times to be content to simply pass the ball around in midfield with no thought to grab a goal at all. Whether this is actually the gameplan or a reaction to the fact Xavi and Andres Iniesta are missing the dynamism of David Villa and club mate Messi to pass to is another question. The duty of being the furthest forward attacker has so far fallen to both Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres at different times. I think everyone is aware of Torres struggles since joining Chelsea last January and Fabregas has looked lively, but he is not a natural finisher. This has led to calls for either Fernando Llorente or Alvaro Negredo to get some time on the pitch to stake a claim from many in Spain as even the locals get bored by the lack of cutting edge the team has. The centre of defence is also not exactly secure at present with Gerard Pique coming off the back of his worst club season to date and Sergio Ramos not really being a natural centre back any more. Croatia and Italy both had chances against the Spaniard's and if they give up too many to Ronaldo he won't miss them all. They did come from behind to draw against Italy, but against a defence as well protected as Portugal's they may find it tougher. You can almost guarantee a tight match where Spain are involved as no team sees enough of the ball to run away with a match, and even fewer have the confidence to attack from the off. I wrote Portugal off pre-tournament, but I am now going to predict an upset and I think they will again make the final like they did at home in 2004.
Back Portugal To Qualify at 3.13 with StanJames.
Back Cristiano Ronaldo To Score Anytime at 3.0 with SportingBet.
Germany v Italy, Thursday 1945
The other Semi Final again sees two of Europe's most successful teams meeting. Germany have been mine and many others tip for the entire tournament from the outset and against Greece the attack finally came to life. Whilst Thomas Muller was doing a decent job for the team and Lukas Podolski had scored in the final group match, Joachim Low decided to rotate his entire forward line. This saw the introduction of seasoned campaigner Miroslav Klose and the two exciting young talents of Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus coming in. Both Klose and Reus scored in the 4-2 win and Schurrle certainly looked more lively than Muller or Podolski had for the majority of the tournament so far. The other benefit of this was that Mario Gomez and Podolski and Muller are completely rested now if they are restored to the starting line-up and that can only be a good thing for Germany. The defence has given away chances, as can be seen in conceding two to a Greek side with no great attacking talent, but this is probably more due to all of the defenders being allowed to march forward in the knowledge they'll score more than the opposition. Mats Hummels and Philip Lahm have both been found in shooting positions at times and they may well be asked to stay back a little more against a decent Italy side. There is also the fact Bastian Schweinsteiger is again carrying a knock and isn't training very much, but he should start again, albeit with slightly reduced mobility. Fortunately for him both Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil have been playing well so he should be able to sit back and simply pick passes again. I'm certain Italy will get chances, but I'm even more certain Germany will have more and possess better finishers in great form.
Italy came through on penalties against England and will be buoyant from that. However comma this must be weighed up against the two days less rest they have and the extra half hour they played for. There were also weaknesses again on show against England that would have been exploited by a better side. The defence gave away numerous chances that England's forwards failed to capitalise on in an opening half hour where they did not settle at all. If there is a repeat of this against Germany they could easily be two behind before they know what's happened. The loss of Giorgio Chiellini to injury is a huge miss for them as he, along with the ever excellent Gianluigi Buffon, is the main organiser of the defence and by far the most experienced of Italy's defenders. Once Italy had settled it was again Andrea Pirlo who dictated the way the game went. England's players presumably had not been instructed to apply extra pressure to the Juventus man and it allowed him to wander around picking up the ball and starting attacks almost at his leisure. I would foresee Sami Khedira being detailed to keep a close eye on him at all times and with him also likely to be feeling the effects of the Quarter Final at thirty three years old, Khedira will fancy his chances of stopping him. The other slight worry is that whilst Mario Balotelli has got himself into great positions throughout the tournament, he has looked edgy and unwilling to pull the trigger. If the bulk of Italy's chances again fall to him and he is off colour then they'll have no chance. All in all I think this is a step to far for an Italy side who have done well to get this far.
Back Germany at 1.9 with Paddy Power.
Back Marco Reus (only if he is named in the starting line-up) To Score Anytime at 3.75 with SkyBet.
Back Second Half in Half With Most Goals at 2.25 with Coral.
Friday, 22 June 2012
And Then There Was Eight, Part 2...
The first Quarter Final between Portugal and the Czech Republic was played last night, and it went largely as I would have expected. Portugal are not a hugely attacking side so it was always likely to be decided by a moment of brilliance from either Cristiano Ronaldo or Nani, as it happened Ronaldo had another brilliant match and got the only goal to see Portugal into the Semi Finals. We also got both tips up to almost double our money, hopefully this turn around in fortunes will last for the rest of the tournament.
A reminder that tonight is Germany v Greece and I have picked Germany -1 on the Handicap market and Mario Gomez to score. I can see this going off as either a complete attacking display from the German's, or if Greece can hold out for a while then as another efficient one or two nil win.
Spain v France, Saturday 1945
Spain are on for a historic hat-trick of tournament wins here, but as many have pointed out, they are not the team they were even two years ago anymore. They still dominate possession in every match they play with Xavi and Andres Iniesta as the fulcrum of the midfield, but they no longer possess anyone who can regularly finish these moves off. The loss to injury of David Villa early in last season has hurt them more than many were willing to give credit for. As a striker originally he always had in mind that moves should finish with a shot, which is something a lot of the rest of the side seem nervous of. The likes of David Silva, Cesc Fabregas and Iniesta have all been played along the forward line in the tournament, and Fabregas and Iniesta have looked good, but none of them have the goalscoring instincts that a striker would have. I can understand why Vicente Del Bosque has left Fernando Torres, Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo on the bench as Torres is hopelessly out of form and the other two don't naturally fit into Spain's style, but something may have to change if they are to win the whole thing. I still expect Del Bosque to start with Fabregas as his nominal striker in this match though as France can probably be nullified by packing the midfield as they too don't use a traditional striker. There has been something of a backlash in the Spanish media too over the fact Llorente and Negredo have not had a minute on the pitch between them, but they probably aren't hugely necessary to win this game.
France progressed in second in the end from Group D thanks to an insipid performance in their last match resulting in a 2-0 loss to Sweden. I had actually thought the Swede's had been very unlucky to lose their first two matches, and with Zlatan Ibrahimovic finally delivering for his country they were always dangerous. The thing that has shocked me somewhat is France's lack of cutting edge and urgency in the final third. Whilst there had been warnings that their defence could be a weakness it was largely supposed to be balanced out by their thrilling attackers. Karim Benzema in particular came into the tournament having finally come good on his huge promise at Real Madrid in the preceeding season, but he has not looked up to much to me. I have read that apparently his movement has been excellent, and maybe I've missed that, but he has rarely looked threatening. When you also have Franck Ribery and Samir Nasri hardly in sparkling form and it leaves them looking unlikely to live up to the hype as potential outsiders. This is without even mentioning the defence which was exposed in every single match and showed no signs of improvement. The suspension of hot-headed Phillipe Mexes could actually be a blessing in disguise as he has shown himself able to cope with Barcelona at Arsenal and that is still basically the Spain model. That being said I still find it hard to see France making many chances or keeping a clean sheet so I think this goes Spain's way.
Back Spain at 1.85 with BetVictor.
Back Spain 1-0 at 6.5 with Ladbrokes.
England v Italy, Sunday 1945
This is a match many expected England would not make it to after the squad was named and the warm-up friendlies played. To say some of the names in the squad were uninspiring is an understatement, and Roy Hodgson's tactic of ceding possession no matter the opposition is at times horrible to watch, but they qualified top of Group D. They have shown in every match that defence is their strongest area and for that reason it probably is no surprise to see the tactics Hodgson is employing. Joe Hart is again looking a hugely promising goalkeeper and in front of him all of the back four have had good tournaments. The full backs Glen Johnson and Ashley Cole have obviously been instructed to defend first and it has made them look very solid, which is a real bonus in the case of Johnson. John Terry and Joleon Lescott have also looked solid for the majority of the time at centre back, although Terry has again looked susceptible to pace and Italy will presumably have noticed that. I have always been a critic of Steven Gerrard for England and his tendency to not stick to a position and always try his 'Hollywood' balls, but he has been discipline personified so far and it is to his and Hodgson's immense credit. The other three midfielders have looked less impressive to me. Scott Parker looks headless at times and he is not the player some would have you believe, Ashley Young has looked good for around 20 minutes so far and James Milner is hard-working, but incredibly limited at this level. In the case of Young he is probably worth persisting with, but I'm not sure about the other two. Danny Welbeck and Wayne Rooney started the last match, and offered very little cohesion or threat for the most part. Rooney's touch again looked awful and his goal really came from a goalkeeping error and a 2 yard finish anyone could have scored. Welbeck moved around a lot without really doing anything. I would probably get Andy Carroll in for his physical threat and keep Rooney as he is more comfortable dropping deep and crossing for the big man.
Italy will line-up in a very similar fashion to England with two banks of four and probably Antonio Cassano and Antonio Di Natale up front. This could lead to a very dull match with both sides probably cancelling each other out for long spells. The biggest worry for the Italian's will be the loss of Giorgio Chiellini at centre back due to injury as he is the chief organiser and most experienced defender they have. More responsibility will now fall upon the goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon to organise the defence, which he should be able to do with his vast experience. Buffon has always been one of my favourite players due to his absolute brilliance throughout a twelve year career so far with very few spells where his performance dropped below outstanding. I would expect Leonardo Bonucci to step in to partner his club mate Andrea Barzagli so there shouldn't be too much problem there they will hope. The key player for Italy so far has been another veteran, Andrea Pirlo. His performances against Spain and in the first half against Croatia were excellent, but he was subdued thereafter. Italy will be hoping the rest he has had now will see him back to his best as he has more than enough to dictate the match with England happy to give up possession. The it will fall to Di Natale and Cassano to finish off any moves that Pirlo starts. Di Natale has had another brilliant season for Udinese, but his knees need rest and that is why he was withdrawn against Irleand presumably with this match in mind. If he and Cassano link up properly they could really cause problems for England. This one could well go to Extra Time, if not even penalties.
Back the Draw at 3.1 with Stan James.
Back Under 1.5 Goals at 2.5 with SkyBet.
A reminder that tonight is Germany v Greece and I have picked Germany -1 on the Handicap market and Mario Gomez to score. I can see this going off as either a complete attacking display from the German's, or if Greece can hold out for a while then as another efficient one or two nil win.
Spain v France, Saturday 1945
Spain are on for a historic hat-trick of tournament wins here, but as many have pointed out, they are not the team they were even two years ago anymore. They still dominate possession in every match they play with Xavi and Andres Iniesta as the fulcrum of the midfield, but they no longer possess anyone who can regularly finish these moves off. The loss to injury of David Villa early in last season has hurt them more than many were willing to give credit for. As a striker originally he always had in mind that moves should finish with a shot, which is something a lot of the rest of the side seem nervous of. The likes of David Silva, Cesc Fabregas and Iniesta have all been played along the forward line in the tournament, and Fabregas and Iniesta have looked good, but none of them have the goalscoring instincts that a striker would have. I can understand why Vicente Del Bosque has left Fernando Torres, Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo on the bench as Torres is hopelessly out of form and the other two don't naturally fit into Spain's style, but something may have to change if they are to win the whole thing. I still expect Del Bosque to start with Fabregas as his nominal striker in this match though as France can probably be nullified by packing the midfield as they too don't use a traditional striker. There has been something of a backlash in the Spanish media too over the fact Llorente and Negredo have not had a minute on the pitch between them, but they probably aren't hugely necessary to win this game.
France progressed in second in the end from Group D thanks to an insipid performance in their last match resulting in a 2-0 loss to Sweden. I had actually thought the Swede's had been very unlucky to lose their first two matches, and with Zlatan Ibrahimovic finally delivering for his country they were always dangerous. The thing that has shocked me somewhat is France's lack of cutting edge and urgency in the final third. Whilst there had been warnings that their defence could be a weakness it was largely supposed to be balanced out by their thrilling attackers. Karim Benzema in particular came into the tournament having finally come good on his huge promise at Real Madrid in the preceeding season, but he has not looked up to much to me. I have read that apparently his movement has been excellent, and maybe I've missed that, but he has rarely looked threatening. When you also have Franck Ribery and Samir Nasri hardly in sparkling form and it leaves them looking unlikely to live up to the hype as potential outsiders. This is without even mentioning the defence which was exposed in every single match and showed no signs of improvement. The suspension of hot-headed Phillipe Mexes could actually be a blessing in disguise as he has shown himself able to cope with Barcelona at Arsenal and that is still basically the Spain model. That being said I still find it hard to see France making many chances or keeping a clean sheet so I think this goes Spain's way.
Back Spain at 1.85 with BetVictor.
Back Spain 1-0 at 6.5 with Ladbrokes.
England v Italy, Sunday 1945
This is a match many expected England would not make it to after the squad was named and the warm-up friendlies played. To say some of the names in the squad were uninspiring is an understatement, and Roy Hodgson's tactic of ceding possession no matter the opposition is at times horrible to watch, but they qualified top of Group D. They have shown in every match that defence is their strongest area and for that reason it probably is no surprise to see the tactics Hodgson is employing. Joe Hart is again looking a hugely promising goalkeeper and in front of him all of the back four have had good tournaments. The full backs Glen Johnson and Ashley Cole have obviously been instructed to defend first and it has made them look very solid, which is a real bonus in the case of Johnson. John Terry and Joleon Lescott have also looked solid for the majority of the time at centre back, although Terry has again looked susceptible to pace and Italy will presumably have noticed that. I have always been a critic of Steven Gerrard for England and his tendency to not stick to a position and always try his 'Hollywood' balls, but he has been discipline personified so far and it is to his and Hodgson's immense credit. The other three midfielders have looked less impressive to me. Scott Parker looks headless at times and he is not the player some would have you believe, Ashley Young has looked good for around 20 minutes so far and James Milner is hard-working, but incredibly limited at this level. In the case of Young he is probably worth persisting with, but I'm not sure about the other two. Danny Welbeck and Wayne Rooney started the last match, and offered very little cohesion or threat for the most part. Rooney's touch again looked awful and his goal really came from a goalkeeping error and a 2 yard finish anyone could have scored. Welbeck moved around a lot without really doing anything. I would probably get Andy Carroll in for his physical threat and keep Rooney as he is more comfortable dropping deep and crossing for the big man.
Italy will line-up in a very similar fashion to England with two banks of four and probably Antonio Cassano and Antonio Di Natale up front. This could lead to a very dull match with both sides probably cancelling each other out for long spells. The biggest worry for the Italian's will be the loss of Giorgio Chiellini at centre back due to injury as he is the chief organiser and most experienced defender they have. More responsibility will now fall upon the goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon to organise the defence, which he should be able to do with his vast experience. Buffon has always been one of my favourite players due to his absolute brilliance throughout a twelve year career so far with very few spells where his performance dropped below outstanding. I would expect Leonardo Bonucci to step in to partner his club mate Andrea Barzagli so there shouldn't be too much problem there they will hope. The key player for Italy so far has been another veteran, Andrea Pirlo. His performances against Spain and in the first half against Croatia were excellent, but he was subdued thereafter. Italy will be hoping the rest he has had now will see him back to his best as he has more than enough to dictate the match with England happy to give up possession. The it will fall to Di Natale and Cassano to finish off any moves that Pirlo starts. Di Natale has had another brilliant season for Udinese, but his knees need rest and that is why he was withdrawn against Irleand presumably with this match in mind. If he and Cassano link up properly they could really cause problems for England. This one could well go to Extra Time, if not even penalties.
Back the Draw at 3.1 with Stan James.
Back Under 1.5 Goals at 2.5 with SkyBet.
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