Sorry about the pause in blogs, but I have been in the midst of seeking gainful employment so have been a bit distracted. The last blog up was also the last weekend of domestic action after a break to finish the World Cup 2014 qualifying the world over. Sadly for us I again posted a loss. I would say I have been slightly behind in the changing of the guard in a few countries so far and am now hoping that I have got properly on top of where I believe teams are in the grand scheme of things now. This should lead to a more profitable blog, although I will still say that nearly all my tips have been at better odds than kick off and we have seen an absurd number of goals in the last five minutes of matches costing winning bets!
Music from Ben Nichols with Toadvine, yet more alt-country!
Week 4
Cardiff City v Newcastle United - Lose 2 points.
Hull City v Aston Villa - Win 1.2 points.
Levante v Real Madrid - Win 1.8 points.
Inter Milan v Roma - Lose 2 points.
Udinese v Cagliari - Win 1.94 points.
Hannover 96 v Hertha Berlin - Lose 3 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor- Lose 2 points.
Weekly Totals - Lose 5.06 points.
Running Total - Lose 12.14 points.
Liverpool v West Brom, Saturday 1500
Lets's return to an old theme for the first up. Liverpool seemed to be set at more realistic prices at the end of last season, but it seems a decent start to this season has seen silly ones returning. I personally think Liverpool are building a decent side, albeit slowly. Their forward pairing of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge backed up by Phillipe Coutinho is very strong and their defence looks much more solid. I am not at all sold on new signing Simon Mignolet in goal as yet, nor am I particularly impressed by the midfield in the main. They are narrowly winning games at the moment, and that's no bad thing, but they don't look miles ahead of anyone to me, which is what the odds here would suggest. Pricing them up at a general 1.4 should really indicate they're going to have a pretty easy time of it against West Brom. Something to bear in mind is that Liverpool have tired in every match so far and have not 'won' a second half all season. If they can be frustrated then they can be stopped.
West Brom have again shown themselves to be a very decent Premier League side under the management of Steve Clarke. They have also made an excellent signing in Morgan Amalfitano and also brought the exciting striker Saido Berahino into the squad. Both these players have excelled in attacking positions and somewhat eased the worry about missing last seasons loan star Romelu Lukaku up front. Clarke was always an excellent number two and seemed to improve the tactical and organisational sides of clubs he worked for and seems to be carrying that on at WBA. I would actually fancy him, of most Premier League managers, to set up a side to contain Liverpool. Due to the odds being so low on Liverpool though I am going to give us a handicap to help.
Back West Brom +1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.4 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Manchester United v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
As I mentioned in my last blog, I think Manchester United are currently suffering from the same short prices Liverpool have previously. They are clearly still a good side under David Moyes, with some very talented players, but they are not as good as the odds would suggest. The main problem I see with the odds is that Moyes is an inherently cautious manager at present and this is holding the side back from pushing on to get a comfortable lead in matches. Their last match was a perfect example of this with Southampton not being killed off and snatching a late equaliser at Old Trafford. A side with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Robin Van Persie, Shinji Kagawa and also Nani, Antonio Valencia, Javier Hernandez and more should not be struggling to score goals, but they are. You can then throw in the loyalty Moyes is showing to an under-performing centre back partnership between Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic. He has re-introduced Jonny Evans recently, but I'd expect Ferdinand and Vidic to again be preferred for this match.
Stoke City started the season well and manager Mark Hughes was being lauded for the quick time he had seemingly instilled a more attractive style of play into his side. However comma since then the performances have got poorer and the team have reverted back to the comfort of a more 'industrial' style. This is to be expected after so many years playing that way, but Hughes is facing some criticism for it. The good point from the worse results of late is that due to the teams defensive schooling they are not getting beaten by much. With that in mind, and United's short price, I think there is again room to play the handicap markets here.
Lay Manchester United -1 Handicap at 2.03 on Betfair. 2 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Valladolid, Friday 2000
Rayo Vallecano are a side that make no apologies for thinking only of entertaining their fans and attempting to score more than the opposition. The problem with this is that when the forward players are not on top of their game the side can be embarrassed defensively. This was certainly the case for the earliest part of this season when they failed to get a point for six matches after starting the season with a win against newly promoted Elche. However, since then they have notched two 1-0 wins, one at home and one away, to move back up the table. This new resoluteness in defence bodes well as they are still not firing on all cylinders and makes me believe they are a side on the up at present.
Real Valladolid are one of those sides who seem to perenially be in the middle of the table. This is something they will be perfectly happy with at present with the lack of money around for all outside Barcelona, Real and Atletico Madrid in La Liga. A couple of good signings can push a side like them for Europe, although that doesn't look likely to happen this year. Valladolid have not won an away match either this season, with two draws and two losses so far. They have also only scored three and conceded seven so far in those matches and I really don't like their chances in this one.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.2 with William Hill. 2 points.
Juventus v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Juventus' manager Antonio Conte has done an exceptional job in restoring the Turin side to the top of Serie A and re-establishing them in Europe too. They have by far the best squad in Italy and can consider themselves to be one of the better sides in all of Europe. This was all certainly true last season. Conte himself warned of the third season being the most difficult of all in terms of maintaining performances and that looks to be true so far. A number of the players who have served him so well look to be getting a little complacent and Giorgio Chiellini and Ginaluigi Buffon both seem to be creaking for the first time. The signings of Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack haven't been a roaring success. Tevez has fitted in fine, but Llorente is rumoured to be finding the lifestyle switch impossible already. They do sit third in Serie A at present having won all three of their home matches with an aggregate score of nine to four, but have shown signs of weakness in most matches.
Genoa appointed Gian Piero Gasperini as manager this season and have looked a better side for it. After being given the reins at Inter Milan and then not backed to succeed his reputation was hugely damaged, but he is doing fine restoring this now. They do sit fifteenth in the table, but have tightened up considerably the last two matches to draw 1-1 with Catania away and beat Chievo 2-1 at home. I think they may well lose this one, but can't resisit again playing the handicaps on such a short priced home win.
Back Genoa +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.8 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
Now, I've been let down a couple of times more than usual in Germany so far, but I still think this will turn around and I'm making the correct calls. Hannover are a side I will always look out for as long as they keep the same direction as they are currently following. They never seem far away from the top end of the table, but fail to gain the reputation the likes of Werder Bremen or Wolfsburg have from title wins a few years gone now. They are similar to someone like West Brom under Steve Clarke I think, albeit with more about them in attack. They have so far played five home matches, winning four and drawing the other for an aggregate of eleven goals for and only four against. They're a good side worth following.
Hoffenheim blazed through the leagues in Germany to the Bundesliga followed by a blaze of publicity for doing so. Once the first half of their first season was over though, they have found it much harder going. Culminating in almost being relegated back to the Bundesliga II last season. They seem a much more settled club now under the management of Marcus Gidsol, but are not any better than mid-table for me. They have only actually won two matches from nine so far with three draws from five propping them up at home. Away from home they have won one, drawn one and lost two with ten scored and eleven conceded. They're providing entertainment, but Hannover are good enough defensively to see them off.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt, Sunday 1630
A side I am also now back keeping an eye on is Borussia Monchengladbach in Germany. Two seasons back they were very profitable for followers with Marco Reus spearheading their attack and an incredibly well-drilled defence keeping most sides at bay. When Reus moved to Borussia Dortmund last summer they went through something of a transitional period trying to figure out a new way of winning games without relying on the mercurial forward. They seem to have finally settled on a system of attacking involving more players now, but have also kept enough defensively too. This is particularly prominent in a home record of played four, won four with thirteen scored and only three conceded. They even beat a Borussia Dortmund side who look back to their very best last time but one out. They then lost to Hertha Berlin away to show that all is not quite sorted yet away from home.
Eintracht Frankfurt did exceptionally well last season following promotion to find themselves in European competition on Thursday's. Unfortunately for them they look the epitome of a side where the extra competition is too much for the squad and are struggling to balance the league form alongside Europa League matches. This week sees them playing Sunday to allow for recovery, but this doesn't seem to have gone as hoped as yet. They have been better away from home so far, but are now travelling to one of the best around for home form and will struggle I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.15 with SportingBet. 2 points.
This week, as mentioned previously, I will be changing my other league of focus. I am going to have at look at France's Ligue Un this time. Turkey has become something of a chore and whilst I may return to it in the future, I am not motivated enough to trawl for news at this time. Sometimes that break can be good to get some focus back, let's hope this is the case here!
Lorient v Sochaux, Saturday 1900
My first pick in Ligue Un is a lay. Lorient are currently third bottom of the table in France and look set to struggle for the majority of the season. This is mainly due to a truly horrendous away record of having played six and lost six, scoring three and conceding twelve. They have won two of four at home so far, but have only scored six, whilst conceding the same number. Goals are not a problem just for Lorient, it's a French thing, but they are nevertheless really struggling.
Sochaux are second bottom and have managed a draw and four losses when away from home so far this season. They have scored four and conceded thirteen in those matches, which is obviously broadly similar to Lorient's away form. They have only won one match at home, but have drawn two, whilst scoring five and conceding seven. Lorient may well be the better side so far, but not by enough for me to justify being an odds on favourite in this match when goals are at such a premium.
Lay Lorient at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Saint Etienne v Paris SG, Sunday 2000
This may seem an obvious bet to start off in France, but I think there is some value in it. Saint Etienne are a regular side in the top half of the table in France and this season so far looks like that will be the case again. They have a good home record, as seems to be the case for most Ligue Un sides, in comparison to one their travels. The problem with the odds giving them credit for that is that, in my opinion, Paris SG are miles ahead and have not been treated as such here. St Etienne go won three, drawn one and lost one at home with nine scored and seven conceded. My main worry here is the seven conceded as that is very high in a league as low scoring as Ligue Un.
That in mind Paris SG's expensive attackers look to be coming into form now. Zlatan Ibrahimovic seems to have thrived in France and revelled in his role as the key man in the side, not to mention in attack. The addition of Edinson Cavani over the summer has looked a tad unnecessary at times, but they clicked on Wednesday night when dismantling Anderlecht. Laurent Blanc isn't my idea of a top level coach, but he almost can't fail in charge domestically with the amount of fine players he has at his disposal. I'm backing them to be in a rich vein of form and for their excellent away record of won four and drawn one to be won five and drawn one come late Sunday night.
Back Paris SG at 1.8 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Thursday, 24 October 2013
Friday, 4 October 2013
Small gains...
After two weeks starting off with losses we hit the black last weekend, with Saturday a particularly good day. I've always pointed out the intention of this blog is not for people who want a 15 fold odds-on accumulator each weekend, it's for long-term gains. In my opinion, barring an enormous slice of luck, these will only come with extensive research and planning. So revel in the huge profits when they come, but remember that there could be a complete reverse another week. And that's this weeks lecture over with!
A couple of early thoughts this week are concerning Manchester United and Turkish football betting. It is beginning to be an idea in my mind that United may well start to look like Liverpool in the odds this season, or at least for a while. I think there is a decent chance that they will continue to be priced as one of the very best sides in the league, when close examination does not bear this out at all for me. I see an excellent goalkeeper, a disorganised and ageing defence, a mid-table at best midfield and a good selection of attackers being ignored or mis-used in some cases. So I will have a close eye on looking to lay them if this is borne out in the setting of the odds. My thought on Turkish football is that I may well look to move on to another league as a regular feature. I no longer spend as much time researching the Super Lig and would possibly have more chance moving on to the French Ligue Un or the Dutch Eredivisie, or even lower league English football. I'll stick with the Super Lig this week, but any feedback on that would be appreciated.
Music from the Lawrence Arms with 100 Resolutions.
Week 3
Tottenham v Chelsea - Win 1.05 points.
Hull City v West Ham - Win 1.44 points.
Osasuna v Levante - Win 1.71 points.
Cagliari v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hambury - Win 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg - Win 0.66 points.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Win 1.36 points.
Running Total - Lose 7.08 points.
Cardiff City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
There's a very decent chance I'll follow Cardiff City a bit this season as I'm impressed with them more than the odds makers by the looks of things. I have mentioned before how I believe defence very often is the area I believe the odds should move around. This is even more the case when you are looking at laying sides or playing the handicap markets as sides may well get draws or even only lose narrowly when the match odds reflect a huge advantage for the opposition. That is not the case here though. Malky Mackay's side spent the big money this summer on Steven Caulker and Gary Medel to shore up the defence and midfield and that looks very wise right now. There is not the same level of talent in the forwards, but there's enough there to try and nick goals that can win matches from the solid defensive base they have. I think this will particularly be the case in home matches like this.
Newcastle United are still being priced above their abilities all too often for me. There is definitely some good players at the club, Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye being the obvious examples, but I'm unconvinced by Alan Pardew. On top of that the club itself seems unsure of what direction it is going in from the lack of leadership from Mike Ashley and the appointment of Joe Kinnear as Director of Football. At present it looks like Yohan Cabaye will make it to the starting line-up and that changes things a bit as the side improves drastically for his presence, but not enough in my opinion. Not to justify Cardiff being so long in places.
Back Cardiff City at 2.43 with PinnacleBet. 2.5 points.
Hull City v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
This might be a theme for a few weeks yet! I actually think Hull City, similarly to Cardiff City, are being slightly underestimated by the odds setters. In this case it isn't so much for their own strengths, defence again really, but in comparison to the clubs in the bottom half of the Premier League. Whilst they have no stand out players, aside from the excellent so far Tom Huddlestone, they don't look any worse to me than someone like Norwich or Fulham or even Aston Villa. My point really is that only Crystal Palace look miles off the necessary quality and Hull could well pick up some good points, especially if they can solve their goals problem. This will possibly not be until January though as currently it's only really Danny Graham for them and he's hugely out of form.
Aston Villa are an incredibly strange side. With Christian Benteke playing they are sometimes worth considering at one of the big boys as if they can stay organised he can cause anyone problems. However comma he is currently out injured anyway. You can point out last weekends win against Manchester City in his absence, but that looks a complete aberration to me and is best ignored. I'm still unsure whether Paul Lambert is being clever with bringing in young, hungry players or whether it's a convenient excuse when results go against them. I will continue to give him the benefit of the doubt for now because of his previously impressive record in management and because it is the norm in Germany where they are currently producing some excellent sides. This week though they look a little short. I'd back Hull, but they don't have enough goal threat for me so I'll be a layer.
Lay Aston Villa at 3.2 on Betfair. 2 points.
Levante v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
I've actually made similar bets to this in the previous two seasons for the same game and been very close to getting it spot on. I've previously layed Real Madrid in the Match Odds market.
Levante have started the season decently in La Liga and got another respectable result last weekend with a 1-0 win away at Osasuna. They again look a side who will be difficult to beat and that is shown in their current record of only having lost once in seven matches this season. They have drawn all three home matches so far and have only conceded once in those matches. They seem to always punch above their perceived weight and are doing so again.
Real Madrid look very much like a side Jose Mourinho has left at present. His methods are not to be dismissed when in charge of a side as he gets great results and certainly improved Real too for the most part of his reign. But, he does seem to always leave sides looking tired and squabbling and this is no exception. The hierachy at Real have not helped by selling their main provider, Mesut Ozil, failing to sign a striker to help Karim Benzema and signing a player for a world record fee they did not require, Gareth Bale. Add this to the problems Mourinho left and Carlo Ancelotti suddenly looks like he has a huge job on his hands. They are no bad side, but the home loss to Atletico Madrid last weekend again showed their are big issues around.
Back Levante +2 Regular Handicap at 1.9 with Stan James. 2 points.
Inter Milan v Roma, Saturday 1945
The two sides that have surprised most people so far this season in Serie A are meeting at the San Siro on Saturday night. Both under new managers and they have improved immeasurably already it seems. In the case of Inter Milan it is former Napoli manager Walter Mazzari who has been given the chance to try and improve the side that has steadily declined since Jose Mourinho and the treble. There is probably not a better manager in Serie A for the job for me and he already looks to have sorted out a previously porous defence straight away. Bringing in Hugo Campagnaro was a master-stroke as the experienced defender has played under Mazzari loads and helps every other player adjust to the new methods employed. Whilst Ricky Alvarez had a poor match last weekend he has been rejuvenated as an attacker also and his replacement on Sunday, Zdravko Kuzmanovic, looks like he's coming along well again too.
Roma currently sit top of Serie A having won all six matches so far under Rudi Garcia. The man that guided Lille to Ligue Un titles and saw the development of Eden Hazard and Gervinho has seemingly unlocked the latter again. He is a believer in the high intensity pressing game favoured by the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp and it is getting results. This can clearly be seen in the fact they have often not been ahead at half time, but the way they tire the opposition out results in winning the matches anyway. The only criticism so far is that they have yet to play a 'good' side, Inter Milan provide this test. I think they may well come unstuck finally here thanks to Mazzari's great experience in Italy paying off.
Lay Roma at 3.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1400
I was a big follower of Udinese around two years ago for about six months as I thought they were being greatly under-appreciated. They were giving Juventus something to think about at the top of Serie A thanks to an excellent scouting system that kept finding new players for the first team. The likes of Alexis Sanchez (Bracelona), Gokhlan Inler (Napoli) and Cristian Zapata (AC Milan) are all examples of the players Udinese have found and sold on at huge profits. This has now seen the team reduced to upper mid-table, but they should still harbour hopes of Europa League qualification. Antonio Di Natale is probably in his last season now, but he is still capable of turning a match with a goal when fit. In this sense no European football is keeping him largely available for league matches at least. They have only lost away this season so far and have won two from three, with a draw, at home whilst scoring five and only conceding two.
Cagliari are also unbeaten at home, but have also failed to win away from home with two draws and a loss so far. They have conceded in every match so far too, which worries me slightly with my previously mentioned emphasis on defending. Cagliari, have in fact only won one match all season and I can understand the odds being as they are here. I don't think there's any huge value in this price, but I think it's still backable.
Back Udinese at 1.97 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hertha Bsc, Friday 1930
This is not to be missed in my opinion. Occasionally the foreign leagues will throw up prices that look excellent to those who follow them and this looks the case here. Hannover 96 are one of my favourite teams to side with due to their consistency and under-appreciation by bookmakers. They always finish near the top of the Bundesliga and invest very wisely to add players who fit a system that works very well for them. The lack of stars also aids them in holding on to their players with many flying under the radar or being presumed to only fit the system at Hannover. They have started the season well again, particularly at home where they have won four from four with a goals for record of ten compared to only three conceded. They have lost all three away matches to temper things a bit, but you can't ignore quality over time and that home record.
Hertha Bsc were promoted over the summer and have not looked out of place so far. In fact, they currently sit in fifth, one place behind Hannover 96. This is also on the back of an impressive home record of played four, won three and drawn one. But, they also seem to struggle away from home where they are yet to win with a record of played three, drawn two and lost one. It could also, rightly, be argues they've had a relatively easy start so far and this should be their first real test. I think they'll come up short against a side with as much experience in the top division as Hannover and one going so well so far.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 3 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
This season Borussia Monchengladbach have started very well and sit near the top of the table at this early stage. They have been excellent at home and currently have three wins from three with a whopping eleven goals scored and only two conceded. This would suggest that some of the issues they have experienced since losing Marco Reus to the visitors have been solved. At various times they have struggled to replac his constant goal threat with a more attacking approach, but this at times left them very vulnerable at the back. This was previously a strength and it looks like they may have sorted this out a bit. To temper this optimism a little bit, they have yet to win away from home. They have a record of played four, drawn one and lost three on the road with only three scored and six conceded. From what I have seen the defence isn't bad away either really, but they haven't committed enough men to attacking to cause trouble.
Borussia Dortmund have started fantastically in their attempts to get back their Bundesliga title from Bayern Munich. So far they have won six and drawn one with a league high of twenty one scored and only five conceded. They've been known the odd slip though. I still think the odds are generous to back them here
though.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.73 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
Sorry this one is so late in being given!
Karabukspor were one of the best of the rest last season in the Super Lig thanks to a counter attacking approach. This actually saw them beat Fenerbahce in Istanbul such was it's success. They did lose start striker Lamine Diarra, but have started well so far. They have a good home record of played three, won two and drawn one. This is with no goals conceded either. Their away form is far more patchy, but this is not unusual at all in the Super Lig and I think they're priced very generously for this.
Bursaspor have again started a season poorly and sit two places off the bottom at present. They actually often seem to gain points all over the place rather than the league norm of relying on home form to gain them points. This can see them in small runs of either horrendous form, or great play depending on the mood seemingly. They are present ly in a poor run and I think they are there to be opposed.
Back Karabukspor at 2.92 on Betfair. 2 points.
A couple of early thoughts this week are concerning Manchester United and Turkish football betting. It is beginning to be an idea in my mind that United may well start to look like Liverpool in the odds this season, or at least for a while. I think there is a decent chance that they will continue to be priced as one of the very best sides in the league, when close examination does not bear this out at all for me. I see an excellent goalkeeper, a disorganised and ageing defence, a mid-table at best midfield and a good selection of attackers being ignored or mis-used in some cases. So I will have a close eye on looking to lay them if this is borne out in the setting of the odds. My thought on Turkish football is that I may well look to move on to another league as a regular feature. I no longer spend as much time researching the Super Lig and would possibly have more chance moving on to the French Ligue Un or the Dutch Eredivisie, or even lower league English football. I'll stick with the Super Lig this week, but any feedback on that would be appreciated.
Music from the Lawrence Arms with 100 Resolutions.
Week 3
Tottenham v Chelsea - Win 1.05 points.
Hull City v West Ham - Win 1.44 points.
Osasuna v Levante - Win 1.71 points.
Cagliari v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hambury - Win 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg - Win 0.66 points.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Win 1.36 points.
Running Total - Lose 7.08 points.
Cardiff City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
There's a very decent chance I'll follow Cardiff City a bit this season as I'm impressed with them more than the odds makers by the looks of things. I have mentioned before how I believe defence very often is the area I believe the odds should move around. This is even more the case when you are looking at laying sides or playing the handicap markets as sides may well get draws or even only lose narrowly when the match odds reflect a huge advantage for the opposition. That is not the case here though. Malky Mackay's side spent the big money this summer on Steven Caulker and Gary Medel to shore up the defence and midfield and that looks very wise right now. There is not the same level of talent in the forwards, but there's enough there to try and nick goals that can win matches from the solid defensive base they have. I think this will particularly be the case in home matches like this.
Newcastle United are still being priced above their abilities all too often for me. There is definitely some good players at the club, Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye being the obvious examples, but I'm unconvinced by Alan Pardew. On top of that the club itself seems unsure of what direction it is going in from the lack of leadership from Mike Ashley and the appointment of Joe Kinnear as Director of Football. At present it looks like Yohan Cabaye will make it to the starting line-up and that changes things a bit as the side improves drastically for his presence, but not enough in my opinion. Not to justify Cardiff being so long in places.
Back Cardiff City at 2.43 with PinnacleBet. 2.5 points.
Hull City v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
This might be a theme for a few weeks yet! I actually think Hull City, similarly to Cardiff City, are being slightly underestimated by the odds setters. In this case it isn't so much for their own strengths, defence again really, but in comparison to the clubs in the bottom half of the Premier League. Whilst they have no stand out players, aside from the excellent so far Tom Huddlestone, they don't look any worse to me than someone like Norwich or Fulham or even Aston Villa. My point really is that only Crystal Palace look miles off the necessary quality and Hull could well pick up some good points, especially if they can solve their goals problem. This will possibly not be until January though as currently it's only really Danny Graham for them and he's hugely out of form.
Aston Villa are an incredibly strange side. With Christian Benteke playing they are sometimes worth considering at one of the big boys as if they can stay organised he can cause anyone problems. However comma he is currently out injured anyway. You can point out last weekends win against Manchester City in his absence, but that looks a complete aberration to me and is best ignored. I'm still unsure whether Paul Lambert is being clever with bringing in young, hungry players or whether it's a convenient excuse when results go against them. I will continue to give him the benefit of the doubt for now because of his previously impressive record in management and because it is the norm in Germany where they are currently producing some excellent sides. This week though they look a little short. I'd back Hull, but they don't have enough goal threat for me so I'll be a layer.
Lay Aston Villa at 3.2 on Betfair. 2 points.
Levante v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
I've actually made similar bets to this in the previous two seasons for the same game and been very close to getting it spot on. I've previously layed Real Madrid in the Match Odds market.
Levante have started the season decently in La Liga and got another respectable result last weekend with a 1-0 win away at Osasuna. They again look a side who will be difficult to beat and that is shown in their current record of only having lost once in seven matches this season. They have drawn all three home matches so far and have only conceded once in those matches. They seem to always punch above their perceived weight and are doing so again.
Real Madrid look very much like a side Jose Mourinho has left at present. His methods are not to be dismissed when in charge of a side as he gets great results and certainly improved Real too for the most part of his reign. But, he does seem to always leave sides looking tired and squabbling and this is no exception. The hierachy at Real have not helped by selling their main provider, Mesut Ozil, failing to sign a striker to help Karim Benzema and signing a player for a world record fee they did not require, Gareth Bale. Add this to the problems Mourinho left and Carlo Ancelotti suddenly looks like he has a huge job on his hands. They are no bad side, but the home loss to Atletico Madrid last weekend again showed their are big issues around.
Back Levante +2 Regular Handicap at 1.9 with Stan James. 2 points.
Inter Milan v Roma, Saturday 1945
The two sides that have surprised most people so far this season in Serie A are meeting at the San Siro on Saturday night. Both under new managers and they have improved immeasurably already it seems. In the case of Inter Milan it is former Napoli manager Walter Mazzari who has been given the chance to try and improve the side that has steadily declined since Jose Mourinho and the treble. There is probably not a better manager in Serie A for the job for me and he already looks to have sorted out a previously porous defence straight away. Bringing in Hugo Campagnaro was a master-stroke as the experienced defender has played under Mazzari loads and helps every other player adjust to the new methods employed. Whilst Ricky Alvarez had a poor match last weekend he has been rejuvenated as an attacker also and his replacement on Sunday, Zdravko Kuzmanovic, looks like he's coming along well again too.
Roma currently sit top of Serie A having won all six matches so far under Rudi Garcia. The man that guided Lille to Ligue Un titles and saw the development of Eden Hazard and Gervinho has seemingly unlocked the latter again. He is a believer in the high intensity pressing game favoured by the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp and it is getting results. This can clearly be seen in the fact they have often not been ahead at half time, but the way they tire the opposition out results in winning the matches anyway. The only criticism so far is that they have yet to play a 'good' side, Inter Milan provide this test. I think they may well come unstuck finally here thanks to Mazzari's great experience in Italy paying off.
Lay Roma at 3.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1400
I was a big follower of Udinese around two years ago for about six months as I thought they were being greatly under-appreciated. They were giving Juventus something to think about at the top of Serie A thanks to an excellent scouting system that kept finding new players for the first team. The likes of Alexis Sanchez (Bracelona), Gokhlan Inler (Napoli) and Cristian Zapata (AC Milan) are all examples of the players Udinese have found and sold on at huge profits. This has now seen the team reduced to upper mid-table, but they should still harbour hopes of Europa League qualification. Antonio Di Natale is probably in his last season now, but he is still capable of turning a match with a goal when fit. In this sense no European football is keeping him largely available for league matches at least. They have only lost away this season so far and have won two from three, with a draw, at home whilst scoring five and only conceding two.
Cagliari are also unbeaten at home, but have also failed to win away from home with two draws and a loss so far. They have conceded in every match so far too, which worries me slightly with my previously mentioned emphasis on defending. Cagliari, have in fact only won one match all season and I can understand the odds being as they are here. I don't think there's any huge value in this price, but I think it's still backable.
Back Udinese at 1.97 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hertha Bsc, Friday 1930
This is not to be missed in my opinion. Occasionally the foreign leagues will throw up prices that look excellent to those who follow them and this looks the case here. Hannover 96 are one of my favourite teams to side with due to their consistency and under-appreciation by bookmakers. They always finish near the top of the Bundesliga and invest very wisely to add players who fit a system that works very well for them. The lack of stars also aids them in holding on to their players with many flying under the radar or being presumed to only fit the system at Hannover. They have started the season well again, particularly at home where they have won four from four with a goals for record of ten compared to only three conceded. They have lost all three away matches to temper things a bit, but you can't ignore quality over time and that home record.
Hertha Bsc were promoted over the summer and have not looked out of place so far. In fact, they currently sit in fifth, one place behind Hannover 96. This is also on the back of an impressive home record of played four, won three and drawn one. But, they also seem to struggle away from home where they are yet to win with a record of played three, drawn two and lost one. It could also, rightly, be argues they've had a relatively easy start so far and this should be their first real test. I think they'll come up short against a side with as much experience in the top division as Hannover and one going so well so far.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 3 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
This season Borussia Monchengladbach have started very well and sit near the top of the table at this early stage. They have been excellent at home and currently have three wins from three with a whopping eleven goals scored and only two conceded. This would suggest that some of the issues they have experienced since losing Marco Reus to the visitors have been solved. At various times they have struggled to replac his constant goal threat with a more attacking approach, but this at times left them very vulnerable at the back. This was previously a strength and it looks like they may have sorted this out a bit. To temper this optimism a little bit, they have yet to win away from home. They have a record of played four, drawn one and lost three on the road with only three scored and six conceded. From what I have seen the defence isn't bad away either really, but they haven't committed enough men to attacking to cause trouble.
Borussia Dortmund have started fantastically in their attempts to get back their Bundesliga title from Bayern Munich. So far they have won six and drawn one with a league high of twenty one scored and only five conceded. They've been known the odd slip though. I still think the odds are generous to back them here
though.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.73 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
Sorry this one is so late in being given!
Karabukspor were one of the best of the rest last season in the Super Lig thanks to a counter attacking approach. This actually saw them beat Fenerbahce in Istanbul such was it's success. They did lose start striker Lamine Diarra, but have started well so far. They have a good home record of played three, won two and drawn one. This is with no goals conceded either. Their away form is far more patchy, but this is not unusual at all in the Super Lig and I think they're priced very generously for this.
Bursaspor have again started a season poorly and sit two places off the bottom at present. They actually often seem to gain points all over the place rather than the league norm of relying on home form to gain them points. This can see them in small runs of either horrendous form, or great play depending on the mood seemingly. They are present ly in a poor run and I think they are there to be opposed.
Back Karabukspor at 2.92 on Betfair. 2 points.
Thursday, 26 September 2013
Third times a charm...
Another loss last weekend I'm afraid, but one thing to draw from it on the positive side. Those of you that follow the blog due to the perceived 'value' betting I aim to provide will be pleased to know that every bet put up last weekend, with the exception of Liverpool, had shortened (for backing) or lengthened (for laying). This is by no means a reason to celebrate, as we lost out again, but is an indication that I think the tips are still worth following and should turn around for us all.
Music this week from Off With Their Heads with Drive.
Week 2
Liverpool v Southampton - Win 3.6 points.
Cardiff v Tottenham - Lose 2 points.
Osasuna v Elche - Lose 2 points.
Sassuolo v Inter Milan - Win 2.12 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Braunschweig - Win 0.8 points.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen - Lose 2 points.
Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi - Lose 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray - ABANDONED - Refund 2 points.
Totals - Lose 1.48 points.
Running Total - Lose 8.44 points.
Tottenham v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
The early kick-off on Saturday has a few storylines running through it. The master and the apprentice relationship between Jose Mourinho and his former assistant Andre Villas Boas being the main one. They have not exactly been the best of friends since their parting of ways and they bring two of the leagues best sides so far to this match. Tottenham have somewhat slipped under the radar for their good start, probably due to not blowing sides away as yet. I always put emphasis on sides defensive attributes now having been stung previously when preferring attacking stats. Tottenham have so far only conceded a single goal this season and have also not lost. The signings made over the summer with the Gareth Bale money, for me, make them a much stronger side and I certainly wouldn't rule out a serious push towards the peak of the table the way they're going. If they sign another reliable striker in January they would have almost a perfectly balanced squad. Villas Boas also seems to be handling the rotation of players well in these early days.
Chelsea haven't started as well under Jose Mourinho as many expected. You could even argue that Rafael Benitez had them playing better towards the end of last season. That being said, Mourinho is not doing terribly. The main gripe people have is with his, now typical, sidelining of formerly important players. The fact he has done this at seemingly every club he has managed has made his decision to keep Juan Mata and David Luiz away from the side seem a little childish to some observers. Chelsea look to me to be a typical Mourinho side currently, just without a reliable goalscorer. The decision to let Romelu Lukaku go out on loan and to be stuck with Fernando Torres and Demba Ba shows up the paucity of Chelsea's options. I think Mourinho would happily leave this match with a draw and his side look a bit short for a win to me.
Lay Chelsea at 2.88 on Betfair. 2 points.
Hull City v West Ham, Saturday 1500
I'm struggling a little bit to find anything that stands out as a bet in the Premier League at the weekend to be quite honest. It's never easy anyway, but only this and the Fulham v Cardiff match seem to represent anything like value for me. I'm going to plump for this as the payout will be bigger!
Hull have started the season better than many expected under Steve Bruce following promotion. I have mentioned before that I am not at all sold on Bruce's abilities as a manager and think he's often wasted a lot of money on not improving Birmingham and Sunderland. However comma he can certainly get a side to a position of safety in the Premier League, I just wouldn't expect any more. With Hull he looks to be going the same way. To give him some more credit I also believe the signing of Tom Huddlestone may well be one of the best bits of business this summer. Whilst he never lived up to his early billing at Tottenham he showed that even in the higher reaches of the league he can be a valuable player. His early passing and settling influence in Hull's midfield have been a huge boost to the side. Unfortunately with only Danny Graham as a striker Hull do look a little light on goals.
West Ham are still after a first away win in six months in the Premier League. This didn't harm them too much last season as they finished tenth and could be put down to a definite tactical approach by manager Sam Allardyce. Allardyce has always been a pragmatist and will know that his side aren't going to crack Europe any time soon and that mid-table is about their position. With this in mind their best chances are to avoid relegation scraps and hope for a good cup run or surge up the league. This will be done on the back of not losing many away matches and making the Boleyn Ground something of a fortress. So the set-up for away matches is damage limitation. They also lack a goalscorer, especially with Andy Carroll again suffering from an injury.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.72 with Stan James. 2 points.
Osasuna v Levante, Sunday 1100
Osasuna made hard work of winning last Friday and beating our laying of them against newly promoted Elche. I would argue that the odds were definitely a bit on the short side. They are struggling for goals themselves and have found their usually tough and resolute defence more leaky than in previous years. In fact, they have conceded in every match so far to have a record of played six and conceded twelve. I think they're worth another look at laying here against a better side at similar odds.
Levante have turned up some great profits for those that have followed the blog for a few seasons. To look at their side you wouldn't necessarily see any reason for them to get in the higher reaches of La Liga, but they seemingly always get around European football. This can be put down to great management and clever signings in my opinion. They sign players who have often previously played well, but been released for free due to injuries or a poor season, or older players deemed to be at the end of their careers. They then seem to nearly always coax out some good performances and create an all-for-one spirit. They've only lost one match this season and that was the 7-0 defeat at Barcelona on matchday one.
Lay Osasuna at 2.17 on Betfair. 2 points.
Cagliari v Inter Milan, Sunday 1400
Cagliari opened the Serie A season with a win, but have not won in the four matches since. They have, in fact, drawn their last three matches and have conceded in every match so far. They finished last season in mid-table and I think they'll probably be there or thereabouts again this season. Their problem is in the fact that they concede quite a lot of goals and they seem to have done nothing about that over the summer. To be honest this is a bet more on Inter Milan than against Cagliari though.
I have so far won on every match involving Inter Milan so far this season as they have drastically improved already under new manager Walter Mazzari. This hit it's peak in last weekends 7-0 destruction of Sassuolo in Sassuolo. It shows just how much of a difference a sensible managerial appointment can make as Mazzari has improved every club he's been with and has seemingly done it again. He has tightened up the defence whilst rejuvenating the attack and now also has Diego Milito returning from injury and already back amongst the goals. Ricky Alvarez was hailed as a coup buy when brought in, but had then looked underweight and seemed destined to leave before Mazzari came in and relieved him of defensive responsibilities to see him probably Inter's best player so far as a playmaker. They've already got an away win at Catania (always difficult) to add to the Sassuolo win and I think Mazzari's tactics are worth backing again.
Back Inter Milan at 2.11 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV, Saturday 1730
Eintracht Frankfurt had a storming return to the Bundesliga last season and managed to qualify for the Europa League. The problem for a side when this happens is that the addition of an extra competition can weigh heavy on squads. A team is very unlikely to have put together a large, balanced squad for domestic and European football and a second season drop off can occur. Frankfurt should stay well clear of any problems, but three losses from six match and two losses from two at home show that they may well face issues this season. They have actually fared better away from home so far and that comes into my thinking also.
Hamburg again look like they may be in trouble and have dispensed with manager Thorsten Fink, who had looked a little callow for the role. Looking at the talent available to him within the squad I would say that is the right decision considering the quality of his replacement. The club have just moved to bring in ex-Holland coach Bert van Marwijk, who also has previous managerial experience in the Bundesliga from his time at Borussia Dortmund. He is also something of an expert in crisis aversion having taken over Dortmund after their bankruptcy and Holland after yet another period of internal strife. He steadied Dortmund and guided Holland to a World Cup final. There should be an improvement in form under him and I think Frankfurt might see an early good result with European football again on the horizon.
Lay Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.8 on Betfair. 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg, Saturday 1430
The two big boys of the Bundesliga have flown out of the marks this season and currently Borussia Dortmund are impressing more. There was huge disappointment at the club when it was announced that Mario Gotze would be moving to Bayern Munich, but they seem to have improved the side with the money brought in. Henrik Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have slotted in seemlessly and have added more goals and pace to an already formidable attacking line. Even the decision to let Robert Lewandowski see out his contract seems to not have affected his form with him putting in no less effort for the team. And then there's Marco Reus. He's becoming more and more appreciated outside of Germany, but I consider him to be one of the finest attackers in Europe. His constant running and positive movement have fitted right in at Dortmund and he is thriving again this season. The team have scored sixteen in six already and whilst there are issues at the back, they'll be unlikely to be exploited this weekend. It's going to be a two horse race in Germany, but with two fine horses!
Freiburg were probably the surprise package of the Bundesliga last season, but were taken apart by bigger clubs over the summer. They finished fifth in the league and qualified for the Europa League and are another side ill-equipped for the extra competition. The German Dfb Pokal was also on this week and this will add another match to their diaries before the leagues form side turns up. It doesn't look good for Freiburg.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.22 with ComeOn! 3 points.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor, Sunday 1400
My Turkish tips have not come up great so far this season. Whilst I still think there's value in the draws in such a low scoring league I may move away from that particular shout as it's prone to leave you very disappointed if a late winner is scored for either side!
Elazigspor were promoted last season and did ok to finish safely in lower mid-table away from the dangers of a relegation scrap. As many sides in Turkey do they relied upon home form to drag them through and only lost four matches in their own ground all season. They drew seven too as well as winning six with a brilliant goals against record of seventeen. Their problems lay in the fact they only managed to score fourteen in those seventeen matches. That they have already scored four in two home matches, for a win and a draw, is therefore an encouraging sign of improvement for them. They are unbeaten so far and look a strong team.
Sivasspor so far have a very stereotypical record for the SuperLig with two wins and a loss at home and two defeats from two away. I've often mentioned the fact that outside of the biggest sides in the division and the odd form side win away from home. They've conceded six in those two away matches and look short odds to get anything out of this match.
Back Elazigpor at 2.58 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1700
Kasimpasa are shaping up to be the Super Lig's entertainers so far with them scoring in every game after their season opener. In their other four matches they have been involved in two matches with three goals and matches with four and five goals. What this backs up is that their defence leaves a lot to be desired, but that their attack is good and they seemingly keep plugging away, possibly without learning! The Turkish matches seem to often be priced up as though all matches are even and that means low on goals.
Eskisehirspor are often to be found nearer the top than the bottom of the table. Their away form last season was actually ok by Turkish standards with seven draws, six losses and four defeats in total. The best part was that they only conceded twenty goals in those matches, a fine record for anyone outside the Istanbul giants. They have already conceded four away from home in this seasons two matches though. They have in fact been involved in a 2-1 and a 3-2 in their last two matches showing that at present the balance between attack and defence is off.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Music this week from Off With Their Heads with Drive.
Week 2
Liverpool v Southampton - Win 3.6 points.
Cardiff v Tottenham - Lose 2 points.
Osasuna v Elche - Lose 2 points.
Sassuolo v Inter Milan - Win 2.12 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Braunschweig - Win 0.8 points.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen - Lose 2 points.
Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi - Lose 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray - ABANDONED - Refund 2 points.
Totals - Lose 1.48 points.
Running Total - Lose 8.44 points.
Tottenham v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
The early kick-off on Saturday has a few storylines running through it. The master and the apprentice relationship between Jose Mourinho and his former assistant Andre Villas Boas being the main one. They have not exactly been the best of friends since their parting of ways and they bring two of the leagues best sides so far to this match. Tottenham have somewhat slipped under the radar for their good start, probably due to not blowing sides away as yet. I always put emphasis on sides defensive attributes now having been stung previously when preferring attacking stats. Tottenham have so far only conceded a single goal this season and have also not lost. The signings made over the summer with the Gareth Bale money, for me, make them a much stronger side and I certainly wouldn't rule out a serious push towards the peak of the table the way they're going. If they sign another reliable striker in January they would have almost a perfectly balanced squad. Villas Boas also seems to be handling the rotation of players well in these early days.
Chelsea haven't started as well under Jose Mourinho as many expected. You could even argue that Rafael Benitez had them playing better towards the end of last season. That being said, Mourinho is not doing terribly. The main gripe people have is with his, now typical, sidelining of formerly important players. The fact he has done this at seemingly every club he has managed has made his decision to keep Juan Mata and David Luiz away from the side seem a little childish to some observers. Chelsea look to me to be a typical Mourinho side currently, just without a reliable goalscorer. The decision to let Romelu Lukaku go out on loan and to be stuck with Fernando Torres and Demba Ba shows up the paucity of Chelsea's options. I think Mourinho would happily leave this match with a draw and his side look a bit short for a win to me.
Lay Chelsea at 2.88 on Betfair. 2 points.
Hull City v West Ham, Saturday 1500
I'm struggling a little bit to find anything that stands out as a bet in the Premier League at the weekend to be quite honest. It's never easy anyway, but only this and the Fulham v Cardiff match seem to represent anything like value for me. I'm going to plump for this as the payout will be bigger!
Hull have started the season better than many expected under Steve Bruce following promotion. I have mentioned before that I am not at all sold on Bruce's abilities as a manager and think he's often wasted a lot of money on not improving Birmingham and Sunderland. However comma he can certainly get a side to a position of safety in the Premier League, I just wouldn't expect any more. With Hull he looks to be going the same way. To give him some more credit I also believe the signing of Tom Huddlestone may well be one of the best bits of business this summer. Whilst he never lived up to his early billing at Tottenham he showed that even in the higher reaches of the league he can be a valuable player. His early passing and settling influence in Hull's midfield have been a huge boost to the side. Unfortunately with only Danny Graham as a striker Hull do look a little light on goals.
West Ham are still after a first away win in six months in the Premier League. This didn't harm them too much last season as they finished tenth and could be put down to a definite tactical approach by manager Sam Allardyce. Allardyce has always been a pragmatist and will know that his side aren't going to crack Europe any time soon and that mid-table is about their position. With this in mind their best chances are to avoid relegation scraps and hope for a good cup run or surge up the league. This will be done on the back of not losing many away matches and making the Boleyn Ground something of a fortress. So the set-up for away matches is damage limitation. They also lack a goalscorer, especially with Andy Carroll again suffering from an injury.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.72 with Stan James. 2 points.
Osasuna v Levante, Sunday 1100
Osasuna made hard work of winning last Friday and beating our laying of them against newly promoted Elche. I would argue that the odds were definitely a bit on the short side. They are struggling for goals themselves and have found their usually tough and resolute defence more leaky than in previous years. In fact, they have conceded in every match so far to have a record of played six and conceded twelve. I think they're worth another look at laying here against a better side at similar odds.
Levante have turned up some great profits for those that have followed the blog for a few seasons. To look at their side you wouldn't necessarily see any reason for them to get in the higher reaches of La Liga, but they seemingly always get around European football. This can be put down to great management and clever signings in my opinion. They sign players who have often previously played well, but been released for free due to injuries or a poor season, or older players deemed to be at the end of their careers. They then seem to nearly always coax out some good performances and create an all-for-one spirit. They've only lost one match this season and that was the 7-0 defeat at Barcelona on matchday one.
Lay Osasuna at 2.17 on Betfair. 2 points.
Cagliari v Inter Milan, Sunday 1400
Cagliari opened the Serie A season with a win, but have not won in the four matches since. They have, in fact, drawn their last three matches and have conceded in every match so far. They finished last season in mid-table and I think they'll probably be there or thereabouts again this season. Their problem is in the fact that they concede quite a lot of goals and they seem to have done nothing about that over the summer. To be honest this is a bet more on Inter Milan than against Cagliari though.
I have so far won on every match involving Inter Milan so far this season as they have drastically improved already under new manager Walter Mazzari. This hit it's peak in last weekends 7-0 destruction of Sassuolo in Sassuolo. It shows just how much of a difference a sensible managerial appointment can make as Mazzari has improved every club he's been with and has seemingly done it again. He has tightened up the defence whilst rejuvenating the attack and now also has Diego Milito returning from injury and already back amongst the goals. Ricky Alvarez was hailed as a coup buy when brought in, but had then looked underweight and seemed destined to leave before Mazzari came in and relieved him of defensive responsibilities to see him probably Inter's best player so far as a playmaker. They've already got an away win at Catania (always difficult) to add to the Sassuolo win and I think Mazzari's tactics are worth backing again.
Back Inter Milan at 2.11 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV, Saturday 1730
Eintracht Frankfurt had a storming return to the Bundesliga last season and managed to qualify for the Europa League. The problem for a side when this happens is that the addition of an extra competition can weigh heavy on squads. A team is very unlikely to have put together a large, balanced squad for domestic and European football and a second season drop off can occur. Frankfurt should stay well clear of any problems, but three losses from six match and two losses from two at home show that they may well face issues this season. They have actually fared better away from home so far and that comes into my thinking also.
Hamburg again look like they may be in trouble and have dispensed with manager Thorsten Fink, who had looked a little callow for the role. Looking at the talent available to him within the squad I would say that is the right decision considering the quality of his replacement. The club have just moved to bring in ex-Holland coach Bert van Marwijk, who also has previous managerial experience in the Bundesliga from his time at Borussia Dortmund. He is also something of an expert in crisis aversion having taken over Dortmund after their bankruptcy and Holland after yet another period of internal strife. He steadied Dortmund and guided Holland to a World Cup final. There should be an improvement in form under him and I think Frankfurt might see an early good result with European football again on the horizon.
Lay Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.8 on Betfair. 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg, Saturday 1430
The two big boys of the Bundesliga have flown out of the marks this season and currently Borussia Dortmund are impressing more. There was huge disappointment at the club when it was announced that Mario Gotze would be moving to Bayern Munich, but they seem to have improved the side with the money brought in. Henrik Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have slotted in seemlessly and have added more goals and pace to an already formidable attacking line. Even the decision to let Robert Lewandowski see out his contract seems to not have affected his form with him putting in no less effort for the team. And then there's Marco Reus. He's becoming more and more appreciated outside of Germany, but I consider him to be one of the finest attackers in Europe. His constant running and positive movement have fitted right in at Dortmund and he is thriving again this season. The team have scored sixteen in six already and whilst there are issues at the back, they'll be unlikely to be exploited this weekend. It's going to be a two horse race in Germany, but with two fine horses!
Freiburg were probably the surprise package of the Bundesliga last season, but were taken apart by bigger clubs over the summer. They finished fifth in the league and qualified for the Europa League and are another side ill-equipped for the extra competition. The German Dfb Pokal was also on this week and this will add another match to their diaries before the leagues form side turns up. It doesn't look good for Freiburg.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.22 with ComeOn! 3 points.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor, Sunday 1400
My Turkish tips have not come up great so far this season. Whilst I still think there's value in the draws in such a low scoring league I may move away from that particular shout as it's prone to leave you very disappointed if a late winner is scored for either side!
Elazigspor were promoted last season and did ok to finish safely in lower mid-table away from the dangers of a relegation scrap. As many sides in Turkey do they relied upon home form to drag them through and only lost four matches in their own ground all season. They drew seven too as well as winning six with a brilliant goals against record of seventeen. Their problems lay in the fact they only managed to score fourteen in those seventeen matches. That they have already scored four in two home matches, for a win and a draw, is therefore an encouraging sign of improvement for them. They are unbeaten so far and look a strong team.
Sivasspor so far have a very stereotypical record for the SuperLig with two wins and a loss at home and two defeats from two away. I've often mentioned the fact that outside of the biggest sides in the division and the odd form side win away from home. They've conceded six in those two away matches and look short odds to get anything out of this match.
Back Elazigpor at 2.58 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1700
Kasimpasa are shaping up to be the Super Lig's entertainers so far with them scoring in every game after their season opener. In their other four matches they have been involved in two matches with three goals and matches with four and five goals. What this backs up is that their defence leaves a lot to be desired, but that their attack is good and they seemingly keep plugging away, possibly without learning! The Turkish matches seem to often be priced up as though all matches are even and that means low on goals.
Eskisehirspor are often to be found nearer the top than the bottom of the table. Their away form last season was actually ok by Turkish standards with seven draws, six losses and four defeats in total. The best part was that they only conceded twenty goals in those matches, a fine record for anyone outside the Istanbul giants. They have already conceded four away from home in this seasons two matches though. They have in fact been involved in a 2-1 and a 3-2 in their last two matches showing that at present the balance between attack and defence is off.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Thursday, 19 September 2013
Picking Up The Pieces...
First off, my humblest apologies for a pretty poor return to the tipping game. In my defence the start of seasons can often be tough as teams settle in and there's a lack of form to go off. Last season was something of an anomaly in the way we got flying off the marks, although I'd still hope to do better than last weekend. I've had another chance to see some UEFA club football this week so hopefully the more teams play the better the profits will be.
Musical recommendation is from The Menzingers with Richard Coury, another favourite band of mine.
Week 1 Results
Aston Villa v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.
Southampton v West Ham - Win 2.24 points.
Inter Milan v Juventus - Win 1.6 points.
Napoli v Atalanta - Win 1.2 points.
Malaga v Rayo Vallecano - Lose 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04 - Lose 2 points.
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96 - Lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 6.96 points.
Week 2
Liverpool v Southampton, Saturday 1500
It's no secret that in the past two seasons I have regularly layed Liverpool with the belief that bookmakers often price them too short. If you look back through my results, and the profit I have made from laying them, then I would certainly say my opinion is based in truth. However, I did think that they were moving back towards a fair price as Brendan Rodgers seemed to be getting a semblance of order into the side that went against their low league position. They have started this season well in terms of results, but I think this has slightly skewed the odds again as bookmakers seem keen to get them short. I would suggest they are being kept afloat by Daniel Sturridge, who is carrying an injury and needs a rest, and Philip Coutinho, who is now injured for a few weeks. They are still going to be hard to beat, but I don't have them as short as 1.44 in any universe for this.
Southampton were one of the few results to go our way last week with their draw against West Ham. In truth they made us sweat a bit as they were regularly attacking, but missed a final ball and also look a side still working each other out. Pablo Osvaldo is a very good forward, in my opinion, but they need to integrate him better. That being said they looked a solid side for the most part and actually a bit better than I gave them credit for. I still think they may be over-estimated against the poorer sides at home, but conversely I think they might be underestimated against the better sides. This is a case in point so I'm happy to take a chance on this theory.
With Liverpool too I would generally wait until a couple of hours before kick-off as they always seem to shorten up a bit to lay.
Lay Liverpool on Saturday at 1.55 on Betfair. 2 points.
Cardiff v Tottenham, Sunday 1600
Cardiff were comfortable Championship winners last season under manager Malky Mackay, who also did a great job at Watford previously. I had thought the arrival of rich, Far-Eastern owners might see him pushed aside, but they stuck with him and he repaid that faith. I think he's certainly a manager with a chance to make an impression and some of his signings have suggested a good knowledge of world football sometimes lacking in his more experienced peers. I personally think Gary Medel is a great addition. He will definitely get a few cards, but has huge experience and that bite to his game should set a good tone for the rest of the side. They have already shocked Manchester City by winning 3-2 in Wales and I think they can make it a bit of a fortress for themselves in their bid to stay up.
Tottenham have, for me, made some truly exceptional signings this summer and Andres Villas Boas has again shown himself to be a very astute manager. I'm a confirmed fan anyway, he just seems to appreciate a team and how to put one together. Cristian Eriksen looked an excellent signing already on his debut last weekend and something of a bargain in today's market too. I also think the likes of Paulinho and Etienne Capoue stand a very good chance of being successful. Villas Boas often rests players for the Europa League, and I would expect that to be the case, but some will certainly play tonight and on Sunday. This combined with the fact I think they are still getting used to each other and I don't see them justifying their short odds this weekend.
Lay Tottenham at 1.87 on Betfair. 2 points.
Osasuna v Elche, Friday 2000
Osasuna had been a good bet for us when at home to better sides in La Liga for the past two seasons, but had definitely become less so last time. This has continued into this season with them having lost all four matches so far and sitting bottom of the table. They simply look like their legendary fight has gone out of them and without that they're barely half the side in truth. Imagine Stoke without any battle and that's the current Osasuna outfit. This is a match they would expect to win if they want to have any chance of climbing the table, but there's little to justify such short odds.
Elche were one of the three promoted sides and, as is normal in La Liga, they've spent almost nothing on that side. This isn't actually necessary a huge problem in Spain as apart from Barcelona and the big two from Madrid no side spends any money. You are often relying on keeping a side together and hoping a player you take a chance on is a success or an existing player suddenly comes good. Elche have started the season with no wins, but three draws and a loss.The loss came in their opening match to a Rayo Vallecano side capable of doing that on their day and has seen creditable draws at home to Real Sociedad and Real Valladolid and away to Almeria. They seem slightly undervalued to me.
Lay Osasuna at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sassuolo v Inter Milan, Sunday 1130
Sassuolo are another promoted side in Europe, this time in Italy's Serie A. They were actually Serie B champions last season, but look the least likely to stay up of the promoted sides. They are currently bottom having lost all three matches so far. That they have also only scored one goal and conceded eight really serves to highlight how hard it is going to be for them. They might yet find their feet, but they could already be too far adrift by that point. They look a side that is heading straight back down to me.
The appointment of Walter Mazzari at Inter Milan is already looking incredibly shrewd. They got a very creditable draw with Juventus last weekend to again give us some money back. They also conceded the first goal of the season to show the immediate impact Mazzari has had upon the defence, an area of concern in recent seasons. That they purchased Hugo Campagnaro was an excellent move. He has been in Mazzari sides for over five years and should be able to help the rest of the defence adjust straight away. They have no European football to tire them out and should be fresh and ready for this. They look short odds, but it's all about the rest and lack of quality of the opposition.
Back Inter Milan at 1.87 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Braunschweig, Friday 1930
Borussia Monchengladbach were a column favourite two seasons ago when Marco Reus inspired them to climb to fourth in the table. They had an incredible home record, let in very few goals and Reus was inspirational and fully earned his big move to Borussia Dortmund. Last season saw them struggling for a new way of playing without Reus's flair and goals and they were punished for committing more players forward with some heavy defeats. By the end of the season though they seemed to have found a much better balance, particularly at home. The summer signing of Max Kruse from Freiburg was also very astute and has seen him named as the Bundesliga signing of the summer by many in the know. They have managed to score in all five matches and have won both home matches so far with an aggregate score of 7-1. Kruse and Juan Arango have both looked excellent in those wins.
Eintracht Braunschweig were promoted from the Bundesliga II and are already struggling with the increased quality. They sit bottom with one draw and four losses and two goals scored and ten conceded. The other issue is that apart from Borussia Dortmund they've not even played a good side yet. Nurnberg, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Werder Bremen aren't exactly the leading lights of the league. There's an argument Monchengladbach might not represent value, but I think they're the right price and I'm happy to back them on that basis.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 1.4 with Coral.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
Last weekend Mainz 05 let us down in narrowly being beaten at home by Schalke 04. There's no particular shame in that as Schalke certainly have a decent side, they just look unlikely to repeat their performances of the last two seasons any time soon. Mainz only lost 0-1 so they weren't exactly blown away either. They also don't have Europa League football this season to tire them out or add to the injury list and this should aid their bid to finish in a good position. That they have already had four different scorers also bodes well as they can struggle for goals at times with no 'stand-out' striker. Nicolai Muller's three goals already will see hope that he can continue in that vein and has seen him win his first international cap against Ecuador recently.
Bayer Leverkusen put in a disappointing performance against Manchester United this Tuesday in their return to the Champions League. They were soundly beaten 4-2 at Old Trafford and looked all at sea defensively at times. They will have had hopes of progressing on from last seasons third place finish as the management duo of Sacsha Lewandowski and Sami Hyypia looked like it didn't work from the outside. With Lewandowski moving aside it was hoped Hyypia could progress the side on his own. It's far too early for judgement on that, but they look very short odds on this weeks performance. I'll side against them this week and give Mainz another chance.
Lay Leverkusen at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1600
Last weekend wasn't my finest in Turkey's Super Lig with both bets lost. I must admit I am definitely playing catch up on the signings over the summer as they are not the easiest to come across when you're on the other side of the world! However, purely on current form and previous knowledge of Turkish football this looks a good bet. It is very tough to win away at a decent side in Turkey, especially for those sides outside the big three from Istanbul who don't carry any fear factor either. Konyaspor have actually returned to the Super Lig from Lig 2 over the summer via the play-offs, and look to be struggling slightly already. They have won one and lost one at home and also lost both away matches so far. They've scored four and conceded four at home too. The one win came in a comeback from 0-2 at home to Fenerbahce on the opening weekend and they've struggled to build on that with the three losses.
Genclerbirligi really pushed the big sides three seasons ago, but have struggled ever since. They have even been perilously close to relegation and seem to now be stuck as a bottom half side. They have been particularly poor away from home and have continued that theme this season in losing both away matches so far and not scoring a goal in either. They've got a win and a draw at home to show they're not a bad side, but they just can't seem to travel well. I'll again back the draw here as I did last week in a different match. Turkey seems to have more draws than most leagues owing to the low amounts of goals scored outside the Istanbul three.
Back the Draw at 3.38 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
The big match this weekend, and of the season so far, in Turkey is one of the six Istanbul derbies a season with Galatasaray crossing town to play Besiktas. Last season saw Besiktas finally abandon their policy of signing foreign players nearing the end of their careers from Spain and Portugal and hoping for a swansong on big wages. Sadly for them it nearly always ended in the players merely turning up for the pay packet and having little, or no, commitment to the cause. Last season they went with only Portugese Hugo Almeida up front and Manuel Fernandes in midfield, but both of these were not at the end of their careers and had shown that they were good players in the Super Lig. The majority of the rest of the side is drawn from Turkey and players performing at other clubs being given a shot at a bigger side. So far this season they have won all four matches and look the team to beat. They have also scored eleven and conceded four to show they certainly have the attacking potency to maintain a title challenge.
Galatasaray reached the knockout stages of the Champions League last season having steadily built a side that was by far the best in Turkey. They then went mad and added Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba to the squad on big wages and I think it has unbalanced the side. They're still one of the top sides in Turkey, but play seems to slow through Sneijder and Drogba seems to struggle for motivation at times. They will definitely battle with Besiktas for the title, but they've not hit their stride yet at all. They've only won one match and drawn three so far, the win coming at home. Four goals in four is pretty poor for them too, especially with the investment in attacking players. All this makes Gala seem very short to win to me.
Back Besiktas at 2.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Musical recommendation is from The Menzingers with Richard Coury, another favourite band of mine.
Week 1 Results
Aston Villa v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.
Southampton v West Ham - Win 2.24 points.
Inter Milan v Juventus - Win 1.6 points.
Napoli v Atalanta - Win 1.2 points.
Malaga v Rayo Vallecano - Lose 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04 - Lose 2 points.
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96 - Lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 6.96 points.
Week 2
Liverpool v Southampton, Saturday 1500
It's no secret that in the past two seasons I have regularly layed Liverpool with the belief that bookmakers often price them too short. If you look back through my results, and the profit I have made from laying them, then I would certainly say my opinion is based in truth. However, I did think that they were moving back towards a fair price as Brendan Rodgers seemed to be getting a semblance of order into the side that went against their low league position. They have started this season well in terms of results, but I think this has slightly skewed the odds again as bookmakers seem keen to get them short. I would suggest they are being kept afloat by Daniel Sturridge, who is carrying an injury and needs a rest, and Philip Coutinho, who is now injured for a few weeks. They are still going to be hard to beat, but I don't have them as short as 1.44 in any universe for this.
Southampton were one of the few results to go our way last week with their draw against West Ham. In truth they made us sweat a bit as they were regularly attacking, but missed a final ball and also look a side still working each other out. Pablo Osvaldo is a very good forward, in my opinion, but they need to integrate him better. That being said they looked a solid side for the most part and actually a bit better than I gave them credit for. I still think they may be over-estimated against the poorer sides at home, but conversely I think they might be underestimated against the better sides. This is a case in point so I'm happy to take a chance on this theory.
With Liverpool too I would generally wait until a couple of hours before kick-off as they always seem to shorten up a bit to lay.
Lay Liverpool on Saturday at 1.55 on Betfair. 2 points.
Cardiff v Tottenham, Sunday 1600
Cardiff were comfortable Championship winners last season under manager Malky Mackay, who also did a great job at Watford previously. I had thought the arrival of rich, Far-Eastern owners might see him pushed aside, but they stuck with him and he repaid that faith. I think he's certainly a manager with a chance to make an impression and some of his signings have suggested a good knowledge of world football sometimes lacking in his more experienced peers. I personally think Gary Medel is a great addition. He will definitely get a few cards, but has huge experience and that bite to his game should set a good tone for the rest of the side. They have already shocked Manchester City by winning 3-2 in Wales and I think they can make it a bit of a fortress for themselves in their bid to stay up.
Tottenham have, for me, made some truly exceptional signings this summer and Andres Villas Boas has again shown himself to be a very astute manager. I'm a confirmed fan anyway, he just seems to appreciate a team and how to put one together. Cristian Eriksen looked an excellent signing already on his debut last weekend and something of a bargain in today's market too. I also think the likes of Paulinho and Etienne Capoue stand a very good chance of being successful. Villas Boas often rests players for the Europa League, and I would expect that to be the case, but some will certainly play tonight and on Sunday. This combined with the fact I think they are still getting used to each other and I don't see them justifying their short odds this weekend.
Lay Tottenham at 1.87 on Betfair. 2 points.
Osasuna v Elche, Friday 2000
Osasuna had been a good bet for us when at home to better sides in La Liga for the past two seasons, but had definitely become less so last time. This has continued into this season with them having lost all four matches so far and sitting bottom of the table. They simply look like their legendary fight has gone out of them and without that they're barely half the side in truth. Imagine Stoke without any battle and that's the current Osasuna outfit. This is a match they would expect to win if they want to have any chance of climbing the table, but there's little to justify such short odds.
Elche were one of the three promoted sides and, as is normal in La Liga, they've spent almost nothing on that side. This isn't actually necessary a huge problem in Spain as apart from Barcelona and the big two from Madrid no side spends any money. You are often relying on keeping a side together and hoping a player you take a chance on is a success or an existing player suddenly comes good. Elche have started the season with no wins, but three draws and a loss.The loss came in their opening match to a Rayo Vallecano side capable of doing that on their day and has seen creditable draws at home to Real Sociedad and Real Valladolid and away to Almeria. They seem slightly undervalued to me.
Lay Osasuna at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sassuolo v Inter Milan, Sunday 1130
Sassuolo are another promoted side in Europe, this time in Italy's Serie A. They were actually Serie B champions last season, but look the least likely to stay up of the promoted sides. They are currently bottom having lost all three matches so far. That they have also only scored one goal and conceded eight really serves to highlight how hard it is going to be for them. They might yet find their feet, but they could already be too far adrift by that point. They look a side that is heading straight back down to me.
The appointment of Walter Mazzari at Inter Milan is already looking incredibly shrewd. They got a very creditable draw with Juventus last weekend to again give us some money back. They also conceded the first goal of the season to show the immediate impact Mazzari has had upon the defence, an area of concern in recent seasons. That they purchased Hugo Campagnaro was an excellent move. He has been in Mazzari sides for over five years and should be able to help the rest of the defence adjust straight away. They have no European football to tire them out and should be fresh and ready for this. They look short odds, but it's all about the rest and lack of quality of the opposition.
Back Inter Milan at 1.87 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Braunschweig, Friday 1930
Borussia Monchengladbach were a column favourite two seasons ago when Marco Reus inspired them to climb to fourth in the table. They had an incredible home record, let in very few goals and Reus was inspirational and fully earned his big move to Borussia Dortmund. Last season saw them struggling for a new way of playing without Reus's flair and goals and they were punished for committing more players forward with some heavy defeats. By the end of the season though they seemed to have found a much better balance, particularly at home. The summer signing of Max Kruse from Freiburg was also very astute and has seen him named as the Bundesliga signing of the summer by many in the know. They have managed to score in all five matches and have won both home matches so far with an aggregate score of 7-1. Kruse and Juan Arango have both looked excellent in those wins.
Eintracht Braunschweig were promoted from the Bundesliga II and are already struggling with the increased quality. They sit bottom with one draw and four losses and two goals scored and ten conceded. The other issue is that apart from Borussia Dortmund they've not even played a good side yet. Nurnberg, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Werder Bremen aren't exactly the leading lights of the league. There's an argument Monchengladbach might not represent value, but I think they're the right price and I'm happy to back them on that basis.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 1.4 with Coral.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
Last weekend Mainz 05 let us down in narrowly being beaten at home by Schalke 04. There's no particular shame in that as Schalke certainly have a decent side, they just look unlikely to repeat their performances of the last two seasons any time soon. Mainz only lost 0-1 so they weren't exactly blown away either. They also don't have Europa League football this season to tire them out or add to the injury list and this should aid their bid to finish in a good position. That they have already had four different scorers also bodes well as they can struggle for goals at times with no 'stand-out' striker. Nicolai Muller's three goals already will see hope that he can continue in that vein and has seen him win his first international cap against Ecuador recently.
Bayer Leverkusen put in a disappointing performance against Manchester United this Tuesday in their return to the Champions League. They were soundly beaten 4-2 at Old Trafford and looked all at sea defensively at times. They will have had hopes of progressing on from last seasons third place finish as the management duo of Sacsha Lewandowski and Sami Hyypia looked like it didn't work from the outside. With Lewandowski moving aside it was hoped Hyypia could progress the side on his own. It's far too early for judgement on that, but they look very short odds on this weeks performance. I'll side against them this week and give Mainz another chance.
Lay Leverkusen at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1600
Last weekend wasn't my finest in Turkey's Super Lig with both bets lost. I must admit I am definitely playing catch up on the signings over the summer as they are not the easiest to come across when you're on the other side of the world! However, purely on current form and previous knowledge of Turkish football this looks a good bet. It is very tough to win away at a decent side in Turkey, especially for those sides outside the big three from Istanbul who don't carry any fear factor either. Konyaspor have actually returned to the Super Lig from Lig 2 over the summer via the play-offs, and look to be struggling slightly already. They have won one and lost one at home and also lost both away matches so far. They've scored four and conceded four at home too. The one win came in a comeback from 0-2 at home to Fenerbahce on the opening weekend and they've struggled to build on that with the three losses.
Genclerbirligi really pushed the big sides three seasons ago, but have struggled ever since. They have even been perilously close to relegation and seem to now be stuck as a bottom half side. They have been particularly poor away from home and have continued that theme this season in losing both away matches so far and not scoring a goal in either. They've got a win and a draw at home to show they're not a bad side, but they just can't seem to travel well. I'll again back the draw here as I did last week in a different match. Turkey seems to have more draws than most leagues owing to the low amounts of goals scored outside the Istanbul three.
Back the Draw at 3.38 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
The big match this weekend, and of the season so far, in Turkey is one of the six Istanbul derbies a season with Galatasaray crossing town to play Besiktas. Last season saw Besiktas finally abandon their policy of signing foreign players nearing the end of their careers from Spain and Portugal and hoping for a swansong on big wages. Sadly for them it nearly always ended in the players merely turning up for the pay packet and having little, or no, commitment to the cause. Last season they went with only Portugese Hugo Almeida up front and Manuel Fernandes in midfield, but both of these were not at the end of their careers and had shown that they were good players in the Super Lig. The majority of the rest of the side is drawn from Turkey and players performing at other clubs being given a shot at a bigger side. So far this season they have won all four matches and look the team to beat. They have also scored eleven and conceded four to show they certainly have the attacking potency to maintain a title challenge.
Galatasaray reached the knockout stages of the Champions League last season having steadily built a side that was by far the best in Turkey. They then went mad and added Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba to the squad on big wages and I think it has unbalanced the side. They're still one of the top sides in Turkey, but play seems to slow through Sneijder and Drogba seems to struggle for motivation at times. They will definitely battle with Besiktas for the title, but they've not hit their stride yet at all. They've only won one match and drawn three so far, the win coming at home. Four goals in four is pretty poor for them too, especially with the investment in attacking players. All this makes Gala seem very short to win to me.
Back Besiktas at 2.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Thursday, 12 September 2013
Back in business...
Good afternoon all. After an almost six month break from the tipping I am returning to action and hoping to pick up where we left off...in profit! Those of you who also follow my TopTopTips page on Facebook will know I put up a couple of international qualifiers tips to whet the appetite. Although, sadly, they ended up slightly down. I'll endeavour to improve here with the bread and butter of league football returning. We will stick to the previous format for now, unless anyone would like to suggest improvements?
Music this week comes from Drag The River with Beautiful And Damned. Bit of a soppy one to start, but a huge personal favourite of mine.
Week 1
Aston Villa v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
Now then, Villa were very close to relegation last season and with no 'names' signed this summer the bookmakers had them down as outside bets for relegation in the odds. I personally think they have a decent shot at a top half finish if they can avoid too many injuries. I'm a big fan of their manager, Paul Lambert, and think now he has had a season to get the players used to his style of play and add a few more to the squad they should kick on. Getting rid of some players who were very unhappy and on big salaries will also lift the mood (Darren Bent, Stephen Ireland) and getting Christian Benteke to stay on for the season is huge. I have the big Belgian down as a future leading man at a Champions League club and possible star of next summer's World Cup in Brazil for Belgium now he has cemented his place as first choice striker for them too. They've had a decent start to the season and I'd expect them to be winning matches like this.
Newcastle look a side in a mess to most observers, me included. To say they over-achieved in Alan Pardew's first season in finishing fifth is a huge understatement. There's definitely some excellent players at the club, but Pardew doesn't seem to know how to utilise them at all. With intelligent footballers like Yohan Cabaye and flair like Hatem Ben Arfa they should be a threat to most sides, but Pardew has reduced them to a long ball outfit. He seems to have set them up to simply try and grind points out with Ben Arfa occasionally chucked in to mix things up with no clear instructions as to how. This might well work on rare occasions, but won't keep them out of trouble. I think they'll again get dangerously close to relegation unless something changes drastically. I don't think the odds are miles out at all, but I think there's a little bit of value left in backing Villa.
Back Aston Villa at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.
Southampton v West Ham, Sunday 1600
One side who I think are being massively over-fancied by the bookmakers currently are Southampton. The Saints have certainly made some interesting signings. The likes of Dejan Lovren and Victor Wanyama have been linked with much bigger sides and in that sense are a real coup for Southampton. However comma that doesn't necessarily mean they'll fit in or excel. The signing of Wanyama in particular seems strange, given that in Morgan Schneiderlin they already had one of the Premier Leagues best defensive midfielders of last season at the club. Considering they were a comfortably lower part of the league side last season they seem incredibly short priced to win matches at the moment. I'm still not certain that Mauricio Pochettino is going to take them anywhere fast.
West Ham are rapidly turning into exactly what everyone expects of a Sam Allardyce side. They are full of big, strong players in most positions, with the odd flair player chucked in to give them another option. This approach saw them steering well clear of relegation last season after promotion and it's easy to understand why the board are backing Allardyce. Whilst I'd be loathe to pay to watch an Allardyce side as a neutral, I'd be very happy to have him in charge of my side if I wanted some security. He'll make the team hard to beat first of all, before adding players that may well be undervalued at other clubs like Kevin Nolan or Stewart Downing. Nolan is an excellent player at chasing knock downs and second balls and has a great scoring record and Downing may never have been a £20million player for Liverpool, but could turn out to be an excellent £6million signing for West Ham. No team will get an easy match against West Ham.
Lay Southampton at 1.89 on Betfair. 2 points.
Inter Milan v Juventus, Saturday 1700
Inter Milan are very much a club in the midst of huge change at the moment. The owner, Massimo Moratti, looks likely to sell his controlling stake in the club after over two decades in charge to an Asian businessman. They also appointed ex-Napoli manager Walter Mazzari this summer after Andrea Strammacioni was relieved of his position. This could be seen as slightly unfortunate for Strammacioni after a huge injury list crippled his side at times last season, but Mazzari is a great appointment. He has improved every club he has managed and turned Napoli into serious league title contenders in three seasons. The raw materials at Inter are not bad at all and with two wins from two and no goals conceded he has hit the ground running. I think they may well represent value early on after a few seasons of underachievement. No European football should actually aid their league form too.
Juventus have emerged from their match-fixing enforced relegation to Serie B as by far the best side in Italy of the last two seasons. Whilst Antonio Conte can sometimes be a very conservative manager he can't be faulted in the amount he has improved the side. Italy was seen as on a very steep downward curve in their standing in European football before Juventus restored respect. Whilst they don't have the players to blow a good side away, no team will get past them without a hard match. They are strong throughout the side and have once again added more good players to the squad like Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack. In Paul Pogba they also probably have the best young central midfielder in world football. This being said Conte has always been happy to leave tough away matches with a draw and I think Juve are a little short to win this with that in mind.
Lay Juventus at 2.24 on Betfair. 2 points.
Napoli v Atalanta, Saturday 1945
The only side that have really challenged Juventus domination of Serie A in the last two seasons are Napoli. After a summer where Walter Mazzari was replaced by Rafa Benitez as manager and Edinson Cavani left for Paris St Germain they have started like a rocket. The money brought in by Cavani's sale was added to and Benitez has brought in Gonzalo Higuain, Jose Callejon, Pepe Reina, Raul Albiol and Dries Mertens to an already very talented squad. With two wins from two and seven goals scored, four by Marek Hamsik, they sit top of Serie A at this very early stage. Hamsik in particular looks to be benefitting from a more advanced role under Benitez and should be the key man for the side. He's always had immense talent, but finally looks like he will fulfil it. If Juventus are not focussed or firing on all cyclinders then this could well finally be Napoli's year in Serie A.
Atalanta are something of a mainstay in Serie A now. They usually have a very good home record which keeps them away from serious trouble, but nowhere near European football either. This is no bad thing for a side that spends very little money on new players at all. Last season they were beaten in eleven of nineteen matches away from home and I see little reason why this would particularly improve. They have started the season with a win at home and a loss away and will not be looking forward to this trip to a side who are currently looking very impressive.
Back Napoli at 1.4 with William Hill. 3 points.
Malaga v Rayo Vallecano, Sunday 1800
Under previous manager Manuel Pellegrini Malaga had managed to somehow perform to a level that got them to the Champions League and not look out of place when there. This was done against a backdrop of their Middle Eastern owners deciding to withdraw their short-lived monetary support of the club and high-earners having to be constantly moved on. Two players who were largely responsible for the club's performances last season have also now left, Isco and Martin Demechelis. This has robbed the side of their leader in defence and their main threat in attack. The fact Isco is already looking a great signing at Real Madrid is a reflection of the quality he has, a huge loss to Malaga. They have started the season with a draw and two losses and I think they may well struggle to pull clear of the the relegation spots all season, such is the reduction in quality in every level of the club. They are, however, still seemingly priced as European challengers currently.
Rayo Vallecano are renowned for their attacking approach and the entertainment value they provide because of this. They finished in eight in La Liga last season and have an outside chance at again pushing for European football I think. Their manager Paco Jemez has had a full season to get the side in his style and they may well even play better for that this season. They have started with a win and two losses, but one of those losses was to an Atletico Madrid side who look increasingly like a third power in Spanish football. They are no world beaters, but look an incredibly long price against a Malaga side way past their best.
Lay Malaga at 2.0 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
As those of you who regularly read the column will know, I really like betting on German football. This is probably because, even though it is certainly increasing in popularity and respect, there is still not much attention paid outside of the big names like Bayern and Dortmund. Sides like Mainz and Hannover who are regular participants in the Europa League and are more than capable of upsetting the big teams are overlooked when the odds are set. This weekend is a prime example of this, I think. Mainz have started the season well with three wins and a loss already putting them towards the top of the table. They have always had a very good home record and are currently two from two at home with five scored and two conceded. The fact they don't possess any obviously brilliant players also enables them to make the team the focus and keep hold of those players who perform so well for them. I'd expect them to again finish somewhere between fifth and eight in the Bundesliga.
Schalke have been the third side in the Bundesliga for the past two seasons largely because of the goals of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and young star Julian Draxler providing flair and assists. Huntelaar has probably now had his best years though and I can only see his powers fading, and he certainly wasn't as good last season as the season before that. Schalke got it together in the end, but they struggled at times. I don't see them particularly struggling come the end of the season, but it may be the end of the cycle for them as the thrid wheel. They've again not started the season great a win and a draw at home and two losses away so far. They've been hit for six in those two away matches and I think Mainz should be shorter in this one.
Back Mainz 05 at 2.75 with MarathonBet. 2 points.
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
I want to make clear that this is purely a value bet and those who don't judge purely on that may want to leave alone.
Bayern Munich have strangely overhauled this summer after establishing themselves as by far Europe's best side last season in completing a Bundesliga, Dfb Pokal and Champions League treble. Their manager Jupp Heynckes had already been announced as being replaced this season by Pep Guardiola in January and so left after a hugely successful season. Whilst Guardiola was the most in-demand coach in football when he announced his return to coaching, he has only known coaching at Barcelona where he understood the club from top to bottom and fitted in. He has already gone about changing the playing style at Bayern and I think it may take a while for this to fully work, if it does. Signing Thiago Alcantara shows he wants to put in his ball-playing deep midfielders from Barcelona and this could even be done at the expense of one of Bayern's best players, Bastian Schweinsteiger. Change isn't always a bad thing, but some of this seems totally unnecessary to me and I'm not sure Guardiola and Bayern will be a great fit.
Hannover are a very similar side to Mainz, in that they regularly appear amongst the European places and give most sides a tough game. They are a well run club where players are brought in to fit an existing system so that things don't need to change too much when they are already working well. They have so far won all three matches at home and lost their sole away match. I'm not sure they'll win this match at all, but Bayern seem incredibly short in a match against a very decent side.
Lay Bayern Munich at 1.14 on Betfair. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1830
Trabzonspor are one of the traditonal big sides in Turkey, along with the three Istanbul sides. However, in recent seasons they have steadily slipped back as they become a very mediocre side with no flair of goal threat. The main reason for this was that they built the side to supply striker Burak Yilmaz, and he delivered, but it left the side lost when he left for Galatasaray last summer. The previous flaws in the side in all areas were masked by his incredible goalscoring record and they now barely look a mid-table side. This summer has seen little done to improve that predicament. They have started the season with a tight home win and getting spanked for five goals in two away losses.
Karabukspor kicked on last season to emerge as challengers for European football and got some great results against the big sides. They kept the majority of the side together over the summer and have started the season very well. They are, in fact, the only side other than Besiktas who are still unbeaten. They have won both home matches and drawn their sole away match. They have a decent defence to build from and should have a good chance of repelling Trabzonspor.
Lay Trabzonspor at around 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1600
Two sides who I've made good money being involved with meet on Sunday. Sivasspor were a mess two years ago, but emerged last season as a much more reliable outfit. They may not score nearly as many, or be as entertaining, but they tightened up at the back and started grinding out results. It was their horrible away form last season that kept them in the lower part of the table, at home they went nine wins, five draws and three defeats. So far this season they have won their sole home match 2-0 and lost both away matches. Looks like they may well end up in a similar state as last year.
Eskisehirspor are a side who seem to always spend a good part of the season around European places before dropping away late on. They also rely on good home form to do this, but are much harder to beat away from home than Sivasspor. They were masters of the 1-0 win two seasons ago and look like they may well have reverted back to that after a less predictable first half of last season. They have started this season with a win, a draw and a loss with two goals scored and one conceded. There looks like there may well be some value in a draw to me.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Music this week comes from Drag The River with Beautiful And Damned. Bit of a soppy one to start, but a huge personal favourite of mine.
Week 1
Aston Villa v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
Now then, Villa were very close to relegation last season and with no 'names' signed this summer the bookmakers had them down as outside bets for relegation in the odds. I personally think they have a decent shot at a top half finish if they can avoid too many injuries. I'm a big fan of their manager, Paul Lambert, and think now he has had a season to get the players used to his style of play and add a few more to the squad they should kick on. Getting rid of some players who were very unhappy and on big salaries will also lift the mood (Darren Bent, Stephen Ireland) and getting Christian Benteke to stay on for the season is huge. I have the big Belgian down as a future leading man at a Champions League club and possible star of next summer's World Cup in Brazil for Belgium now he has cemented his place as first choice striker for them too. They've had a decent start to the season and I'd expect them to be winning matches like this.
Newcastle look a side in a mess to most observers, me included. To say they over-achieved in Alan Pardew's first season in finishing fifth is a huge understatement. There's definitely some excellent players at the club, but Pardew doesn't seem to know how to utilise them at all. With intelligent footballers like Yohan Cabaye and flair like Hatem Ben Arfa they should be a threat to most sides, but Pardew has reduced them to a long ball outfit. He seems to have set them up to simply try and grind points out with Ben Arfa occasionally chucked in to mix things up with no clear instructions as to how. This might well work on rare occasions, but won't keep them out of trouble. I think they'll again get dangerously close to relegation unless something changes drastically. I don't think the odds are miles out at all, but I think there's a little bit of value left in backing Villa.
Back Aston Villa at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.
Southampton v West Ham, Sunday 1600
One side who I think are being massively over-fancied by the bookmakers currently are Southampton. The Saints have certainly made some interesting signings. The likes of Dejan Lovren and Victor Wanyama have been linked with much bigger sides and in that sense are a real coup for Southampton. However comma that doesn't necessarily mean they'll fit in or excel. The signing of Wanyama in particular seems strange, given that in Morgan Schneiderlin they already had one of the Premier Leagues best defensive midfielders of last season at the club. Considering they were a comfortably lower part of the league side last season they seem incredibly short priced to win matches at the moment. I'm still not certain that Mauricio Pochettino is going to take them anywhere fast.
West Ham are rapidly turning into exactly what everyone expects of a Sam Allardyce side. They are full of big, strong players in most positions, with the odd flair player chucked in to give them another option. This approach saw them steering well clear of relegation last season after promotion and it's easy to understand why the board are backing Allardyce. Whilst I'd be loathe to pay to watch an Allardyce side as a neutral, I'd be very happy to have him in charge of my side if I wanted some security. He'll make the team hard to beat first of all, before adding players that may well be undervalued at other clubs like Kevin Nolan or Stewart Downing. Nolan is an excellent player at chasing knock downs and second balls and has a great scoring record and Downing may never have been a £20million player for Liverpool, but could turn out to be an excellent £6million signing for West Ham. No team will get an easy match against West Ham.
Lay Southampton at 1.89 on Betfair. 2 points.
Inter Milan v Juventus, Saturday 1700
Inter Milan are very much a club in the midst of huge change at the moment. The owner, Massimo Moratti, looks likely to sell his controlling stake in the club after over two decades in charge to an Asian businessman. They also appointed ex-Napoli manager Walter Mazzari this summer after Andrea Strammacioni was relieved of his position. This could be seen as slightly unfortunate for Strammacioni after a huge injury list crippled his side at times last season, but Mazzari is a great appointment. He has improved every club he has managed and turned Napoli into serious league title contenders in three seasons. The raw materials at Inter are not bad at all and with two wins from two and no goals conceded he has hit the ground running. I think they may well represent value early on after a few seasons of underachievement. No European football should actually aid their league form too.
Juventus have emerged from their match-fixing enforced relegation to Serie B as by far the best side in Italy of the last two seasons. Whilst Antonio Conte can sometimes be a very conservative manager he can't be faulted in the amount he has improved the side. Italy was seen as on a very steep downward curve in their standing in European football before Juventus restored respect. Whilst they don't have the players to blow a good side away, no team will get past them without a hard match. They are strong throughout the side and have once again added more good players to the squad like Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack. In Paul Pogba they also probably have the best young central midfielder in world football. This being said Conte has always been happy to leave tough away matches with a draw and I think Juve are a little short to win this with that in mind.
Lay Juventus at 2.24 on Betfair. 2 points.
Napoli v Atalanta, Saturday 1945
The only side that have really challenged Juventus domination of Serie A in the last two seasons are Napoli. After a summer where Walter Mazzari was replaced by Rafa Benitez as manager and Edinson Cavani left for Paris St Germain they have started like a rocket. The money brought in by Cavani's sale was added to and Benitez has brought in Gonzalo Higuain, Jose Callejon, Pepe Reina, Raul Albiol and Dries Mertens to an already very talented squad. With two wins from two and seven goals scored, four by Marek Hamsik, they sit top of Serie A at this very early stage. Hamsik in particular looks to be benefitting from a more advanced role under Benitez and should be the key man for the side. He's always had immense talent, but finally looks like he will fulfil it. If Juventus are not focussed or firing on all cyclinders then this could well finally be Napoli's year in Serie A.
Atalanta are something of a mainstay in Serie A now. They usually have a very good home record which keeps them away from serious trouble, but nowhere near European football either. This is no bad thing for a side that spends very little money on new players at all. Last season they were beaten in eleven of nineteen matches away from home and I see little reason why this would particularly improve. They have started the season with a win at home and a loss away and will not be looking forward to this trip to a side who are currently looking very impressive.
Back Napoli at 1.4 with William Hill. 3 points.
Malaga v Rayo Vallecano, Sunday 1800
Under previous manager Manuel Pellegrini Malaga had managed to somehow perform to a level that got them to the Champions League and not look out of place when there. This was done against a backdrop of their Middle Eastern owners deciding to withdraw their short-lived monetary support of the club and high-earners having to be constantly moved on. Two players who were largely responsible for the club's performances last season have also now left, Isco and Martin Demechelis. This has robbed the side of their leader in defence and their main threat in attack. The fact Isco is already looking a great signing at Real Madrid is a reflection of the quality he has, a huge loss to Malaga. They have started the season with a draw and two losses and I think they may well struggle to pull clear of the the relegation spots all season, such is the reduction in quality in every level of the club. They are, however, still seemingly priced as European challengers currently.
Rayo Vallecano are renowned for their attacking approach and the entertainment value they provide because of this. They finished in eight in La Liga last season and have an outside chance at again pushing for European football I think. Their manager Paco Jemez has had a full season to get the side in his style and they may well even play better for that this season. They have started with a win and two losses, but one of those losses was to an Atletico Madrid side who look increasingly like a third power in Spanish football. They are no world beaters, but look an incredibly long price against a Malaga side way past their best.
Lay Malaga at 2.0 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
As those of you who regularly read the column will know, I really like betting on German football. This is probably because, even though it is certainly increasing in popularity and respect, there is still not much attention paid outside of the big names like Bayern and Dortmund. Sides like Mainz and Hannover who are regular participants in the Europa League and are more than capable of upsetting the big teams are overlooked when the odds are set. This weekend is a prime example of this, I think. Mainz have started the season well with three wins and a loss already putting them towards the top of the table. They have always had a very good home record and are currently two from two at home with five scored and two conceded. The fact they don't possess any obviously brilliant players also enables them to make the team the focus and keep hold of those players who perform so well for them. I'd expect them to again finish somewhere between fifth and eight in the Bundesliga.
Schalke have been the third side in the Bundesliga for the past two seasons largely because of the goals of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and young star Julian Draxler providing flair and assists. Huntelaar has probably now had his best years though and I can only see his powers fading, and he certainly wasn't as good last season as the season before that. Schalke got it together in the end, but they struggled at times. I don't see them particularly struggling come the end of the season, but it may be the end of the cycle for them as the thrid wheel. They've again not started the season great a win and a draw at home and two losses away so far. They've been hit for six in those two away matches and I think Mainz should be shorter in this one.
Back Mainz 05 at 2.75 with MarathonBet. 2 points.
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
I want to make clear that this is purely a value bet and those who don't judge purely on that may want to leave alone.
Bayern Munich have strangely overhauled this summer after establishing themselves as by far Europe's best side last season in completing a Bundesliga, Dfb Pokal and Champions League treble. Their manager Jupp Heynckes had already been announced as being replaced this season by Pep Guardiola in January and so left after a hugely successful season. Whilst Guardiola was the most in-demand coach in football when he announced his return to coaching, he has only known coaching at Barcelona where he understood the club from top to bottom and fitted in. He has already gone about changing the playing style at Bayern and I think it may take a while for this to fully work, if it does. Signing Thiago Alcantara shows he wants to put in his ball-playing deep midfielders from Barcelona and this could even be done at the expense of one of Bayern's best players, Bastian Schweinsteiger. Change isn't always a bad thing, but some of this seems totally unnecessary to me and I'm not sure Guardiola and Bayern will be a great fit.
Hannover are a very similar side to Mainz, in that they regularly appear amongst the European places and give most sides a tough game. They are a well run club where players are brought in to fit an existing system so that things don't need to change too much when they are already working well. They have so far won all three matches at home and lost their sole away match. I'm not sure they'll win this match at all, but Bayern seem incredibly short in a match against a very decent side.
Lay Bayern Munich at 1.14 on Betfair. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1830
Trabzonspor are one of the traditonal big sides in Turkey, along with the three Istanbul sides. However, in recent seasons they have steadily slipped back as they become a very mediocre side with no flair of goal threat. The main reason for this was that they built the side to supply striker Burak Yilmaz, and he delivered, but it left the side lost when he left for Galatasaray last summer. The previous flaws in the side in all areas were masked by his incredible goalscoring record and they now barely look a mid-table side. This summer has seen little done to improve that predicament. They have started the season with a tight home win and getting spanked for five goals in two away losses.
Karabukspor kicked on last season to emerge as challengers for European football and got some great results against the big sides. They kept the majority of the side together over the summer and have started the season very well. They are, in fact, the only side other than Besiktas who are still unbeaten. They have won both home matches and drawn their sole away match. They have a decent defence to build from and should have a good chance of repelling Trabzonspor.
Lay Trabzonspor at around 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1600
Two sides who I've made good money being involved with meet on Sunday. Sivasspor were a mess two years ago, but emerged last season as a much more reliable outfit. They may not score nearly as many, or be as entertaining, but they tightened up at the back and started grinding out results. It was their horrible away form last season that kept them in the lower part of the table, at home they went nine wins, five draws and three defeats. So far this season they have won their sole home match 2-0 and lost both away matches. Looks like they may well end up in a similar state as last year.
Eskisehirspor are a side who seem to always spend a good part of the season around European places before dropping away late on. They also rely on good home form to do this, but are much harder to beat away from home than Sivasspor. They were masters of the 1-0 win two seasons ago and look like they may well have reverted back to that after a less predictable first half of last season. They have started this season with a win, a draw and a loss with two goals scored and one conceded. There looks like there may well be some value in a draw to me.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Thursday, 14 March 2013
Reality Bites Again...
Well, Liverpool cost us a profitable weekend and made it a slight loss again. As ever, I will be doing my utmost to get back into profitable tipping. These losses are inevitable unfortunately. If we could predict every result I wouldn't be looking for value or even working!
Week 29
Norwich v Southampton - Win 1.22 points.
Liverpool v Tottenham - Lose 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Malaga - Lose 2 points.
Udinese v Roma - Win 1.85 points.
Chievo v Napoli - Win 1.92 points.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen - Win 1.32 points.
Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen - Lose 2 points.
Istanbul BB v Kayserispor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 1.69 points.
Running Total - Up 47.21 points.
Music this week comes from Black Rebel Motorcycle Club with Ain't No Easy Way, as I'm seeing them in a couple of weeks.
Southampton v Liverpool, Saturday 1500
Southampton have been a slightly odd side to get the measure of since appointing Mauricio Pochettino as manager. They have definitely become a more tactically aware side and are playing a more modern brand of pressing football. This has led to them rarely being outclassed, but has not gained results and they are getting closer to the relegation places and in dire need of a victory or two to pull them clear and provide a confidence boost. The fact most fans did not want to see Nigel Adkins replaced as manager will surely mean a turn in atmosphere if the current drop down the table continues. However comma having said all this I do think they have a good chance in this match as Liverpool play a similar brand of football and they should be given time on the ball if they want it.
Liverpool's late comeback against Tottenham last weekend cost us a profit overall and they did look good in spells. This should be tempered with the fact that Spurs were all at sea defensively for two goals and Kyle Walker in particular had one of his worst games of the entire season at right back. With Moussa Demebele also slightly marginalised on the wing instead of in the middle of the park, Andre Villas Boas denied himself a creative outlet and let Liverpool play. This should not be the case against Saints as in Morgan Schneiderlin they have one of the most regular tacklers in the entire division as well as a ball of energy. I still think you're gambling an awful lot on Luis Suarez excelling when you bet on Liverpool and I would not have them at odds on in this.
Lay Liverpool at 1.92 on Betfair. 2 points.
Swansea v Arsenal, Saturday 1500
Swansea have already won the League Cup and therefore qualified for Europe so there will be a few people backing Arsenal as they have 'more to play for'. Whilst there will be occasions where this is a valid reason to bet, I'd not say this match fits the bill. In foreign leagues (particularly Italy) there are still 'favours' done between sides when one has nothing to play for, but it is very rarely the case in England and certainly not this long before the end of the season. Swansea have not looked like a side with their feet up to me and have had the beating of Arsenal since they got to the Premier League. In many ways they employ a broadly similar tactical approach, but are more inclined to resort to a more direct approach if necessary. They also now have Michu scoring again, which can only be a good thing for them.
Arsenal got an excellent 2-0 win away in Munich in the Champions League last night, but Bayern looked every bit a side who thought they'd qualified already and simply let Arsenal play. This almost cost them as it turned out, but it doesn't mean Arsenal were brilliant by any stretch of the imagination. Arsene Wenger rested his goalkeeper Wojiech Sczsezny as well as Lukas Podolski and Jack Wilshere is out for a few weeks. The biggest miss for them will definitely be Wilshere as there is noone else in the side capable of his industry or ability to drive the side forward. Mikel Arteta is a solid player and Santi Cazorla is capable of some stunning performances, but both have looked tired to me of late. I simply don't see Arsenal coming away from this tough trip with a win and think the odds on doing so are too short.
Lay Arsenal at 2.37 on Betfair. 2 points.
Osasuna v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 1800
A side that have featured a few times over the past twenty four months on here are Osasuna, due to their excellent home record. They started this season very slowly, but picked up just before the winter break to pull themselves clear of any lingering relegation worries. They did this by going back to the approach that has served themselves so well over they years, namely being the Stoke of Spain's La Liga. Their fans revel in the fact that they make it incredibly physical for any side visiting and the tight ground makes it a cauldron at times.
Atletico Madrid have dropped off a bit in the last month after an amazing start to the season saw them as Barcelona's only likely challenegers. They are now a point behind city rivals Real Madrid in the table and it is away from home that they are struggling to pick up points. They go won five, drawn three and lost five away from home with fourteen scored and seventeen conceded. They have also seen Falcao's amazing scoring drying up slightly and this has left them struggling to get ahead of sides. They struggle in this one.
Lay Atletico Madrid at 2.22 on Betfair. 2 points.
Torino v Lazio, Sunday 1400
Looking through the Serie A fixtures this week it was tough to pick anything out as particularly good value. The good sides out of form all have easy home matches and don't look particularly backable or layable really. The one match that looks likely to provide an upset to me is this one. Torino were promoted over the summer and have not looked out of place in the top division at all. They may well be in fifteenth position, but they are eight points clear of the relegation spots. This has been mostly because of an excellent defence ensuring they are very tough to beat. They go won five, drawn four and lost four at home and have only lost nine all season. This is not a bad record at all for a side who would be happy to simply stay up and build for the future.
Lazio looked like possibly Champions League competitors next season before the winter break, but have fallen away badly since then. They are still in sixth position, but are miles off the likes of Juventus, Napoli and AC Milan. The problem for Lazio has been goals. Whenever Miroslav Klose is fit they look a lot more likely to beat sides as he is their only reliable goal threat. They have particularly struggled away from home and have now not won since 22nd December outside Rome. With an away record of won four, drawn three and lost six with only twelve scored and twenty one conceded I think they're worth taking on.
Back Torino at 2.55 with SportingBet. 2 points.
Nurnberg v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
One of the sides in Germany's Bundesliga who seem to be perfectly stable are Nurnberg. They have finished each of the last three seasons comfortably clear of relegation, but without really troubling the European spots either. This season is no different with them currently residing in eleventh position. They have only lost two matches at home all season with four wins and six draws making up their twelve home matches so far. With a joint third best home goals conceded of thirteen so far it is their mean defence that is making it so difficult for visiting sides. They may not be a side to back to win at home too often as they have also only scored sixteen, but it's worth looking at opposing visiting sides with a record such as theirs.
Schalke went through a very rough spell between November and February and dispensed with manager Huub Stevens too. They have looked better in winning their last three league matches against Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg and Fortuna Dusseldorf, but these can be seen as wins against struggling sides and a Dortmund team with their focus on the Champions League. Also key to these wins was the return of Klaas Jan Huntelaar to the attack and he is now missing again. This led to them losing at home to a none-too-brilliant Galatasaray side to exit the Champions League in midweek. The game went to the last minute as a contest too and I would not be at all surprised to see a bit of a drop in performance in this.
Lay Schalke 04 at 2.35 on Betfair. 2 points.
Bursaspor v Trabzonspor, Friday 1800
Bursaspor have not been a side I've been particularly looking to back this season or last as they are trying to rebuild a team and have been very hit and miss. This does now seem to have changed though with a good run after returning from the winter break propelling them up to joint fourth in the table and a return to European football next season. Their home record is particularly good with six wins, five draws and just two losses with seventeen scored and only nine conceded. That goals against record is absolutely fantastic and shows how hard it is for any visiting side. They've not lost at home since November and have also only conceded two in the last five home matches.
Trabzonspor have been a very profitable side for us this season for laying. They are often priced up as a top side due to their regularity in challenging in the upper reaches of the table, but are really floundering this time. They currently sit in eleventh position and it is well deserved due to the awful football they often produce. The reason for this is as simple as the loss of star striker Burak Yilmaz to Galatasaray over the summer. They have failed to replace his goals or to adjust their tactics to get results and look completely lost to me.
Back Bursaspor at 2.25 with Bet365. 2 points.
Kayserispor v Galatasaray, Sunday 1800
Two weekends ago I went against my instincts and got slightly fortunate backing Kayserispor at odds on to beat Mersin Idman Yurdu. That they won 2-1 meant we all ended in profit, but they made hard work of it. It did still add to their hugely impressive home record though with six wins, four draws and just two losses. They have only scored fifteen in those twelve home matches, but it is the fact they have only conceded eight that interests me. It makes every visiting side worth a look at opposing.
This weeks visitors are a Galatasaray side fresh from qualifying for the Champions League quarter finals on Tuesday night. The winter signings of Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba were calculated risks to provide the side with players with experience of playing in major matches for exactly that type of game. The problem comes if they don't fancy particularly putting the effort in for Super Lig matches, and I can see this match being one to challenge them both. With an away record of won five, drawn six and lost two so far they are not anywhere near as imperious as they are in Istanbul and they will need to be on top of their game to get three points in this. They look a little short to do so to me.
Lay Galatasaray at 2.06 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Week 29
Norwich v Southampton - Win 1.22 points.
Liverpool v Tottenham - Lose 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Malaga - Lose 2 points.
Udinese v Roma - Win 1.85 points.
Chievo v Napoli - Win 1.92 points.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen - Win 1.32 points.
Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen - Lose 2 points.
Istanbul BB v Kayserispor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 1.69 points.
Running Total - Up 47.21 points.
Music this week comes from Black Rebel Motorcycle Club with Ain't No Easy Way, as I'm seeing them in a couple of weeks.
Southampton v Liverpool, Saturday 1500
Southampton have been a slightly odd side to get the measure of since appointing Mauricio Pochettino as manager. They have definitely become a more tactically aware side and are playing a more modern brand of pressing football. This has led to them rarely being outclassed, but has not gained results and they are getting closer to the relegation places and in dire need of a victory or two to pull them clear and provide a confidence boost. The fact most fans did not want to see Nigel Adkins replaced as manager will surely mean a turn in atmosphere if the current drop down the table continues. However comma having said all this I do think they have a good chance in this match as Liverpool play a similar brand of football and they should be given time on the ball if they want it.
Liverpool's late comeback against Tottenham last weekend cost us a profit overall and they did look good in spells. This should be tempered with the fact that Spurs were all at sea defensively for two goals and Kyle Walker in particular had one of his worst games of the entire season at right back. With Moussa Demebele also slightly marginalised on the wing instead of in the middle of the park, Andre Villas Boas denied himself a creative outlet and let Liverpool play. This should not be the case against Saints as in Morgan Schneiderlin they have one of the most regular tacklers in the entire division as well as a ball of energy. I still think you're gambling an awful lot on Luis Suarez excelling when you bet on Liverpool and I would not have them at odds on in this.
Lay Liverpool at 1.92 on Betfair. 2 points.
Swansea v Arsenal, Saturday 1500
Swansea have already won the League Cup and therefore qualified for Europe so there will be a few people backing Arsenal as they have 'more to play for'. Whilst there will be occasions where this is a valid reason to bet, I'd not say this match fits the bill. In foreign leagues (particularly Italy) there are still 'favours' done between sides when one has nothing to play for, but it is very rarely the case in England and certainly not this long before the end of the season. Swansea have not looked like a side with their feet up to me and have had the beating of Arsenal since they got to the Premier League. In many ways they employ a broadly similar tactical approach, but are more inclined to resort to a more direct approach if necessary. They also now have Michu scoring again, which can only be a good thing for them.
Arsenal got an excellent 2-0 win away in Munich in the Champions League last night, but Bayern looked every bit a side who thought they'd qualified already and simply let Arsenal play. This almost cost them as it turned out, but it doesn't mean Arsenal were brilliant by any stretch of the imagination. Arsene Wenger rested his goalkeeper Wojiech Sczsezny as well as Lukas Podolski and Jack Wilshere is out for a few weeks. The biggest miss for them will definitely be Wilshere as there is noone else in the side capable of his industry or ability to drive the side forward. Mikel Arteta is a solid player and Santi Cazorla is capable of some stunning performances, but both have looked tired to me of late. I simply don't see Arsenal coming away from this tough trip with a win and think the odds on doing so are too short.
Lay Arsenal at 2.37 on Betfair. 2 points.
Osasuna v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 1800
A side that have featured a few times over the past twenty four months on here are Osasuna, due to their excellent home record. They started this season very slowly, but picked up just before the winter break to pull themselves clear of any lingering relegation worries. They did this by going back to the approach that has served themselves so well over they years, namely being the Stoke of Spain's La Liga. Their fans revel in the fact that they make it incredibly physical for any side visiting and the tight ground makes it a cauldron at times.
Atletico Madrid have dropped off a bit in the last month after an amazing start to the season saw them as Barcelona's only likely challenegers. They are now a point behind city rivals Real Madrid in the table and it is away from home that they are struggling to pick up points. They go won five, drawn three and lost five away from home with fourteen scored and seventeen conceded. They have also seen Falcao's amazing scoring drying up slightly and this has left them struggling to get ahead of sides. They struggle in this one.
Lay Atletico Madrid at 2.22 on Betfair. 2 points.
Torino v Lazio, Sunday 1400
Looking through the Serie A fixtures this week it was tough to pick anything out as particularly good value. The good sides out of form all have easy home matches and don't look particularly backable or layable really. The one match that looks likely to provide an upset to me is this one. Torino were promoted over the summer and have not looked out of place in the top division at all. They may well be in fifteenth position, but they are eight points clear of the relegation spots. This has been mostly because of an excellent defence ensuring they are very tough to beat. They go won five, drawn four and lost four at home and have only lost nine all season. This is not a bad record at all for a side who would be happy to simply stay up and build for the future.
Lazio looked like possibly Champions League competitors next season before the winter break, but have fallen away badly since then. They are still in sixth position, but are miles off the likes of Juventus, Napoli and AC Milan. The problem for Lazio has been goals. Whenever Miroslav Klose is fit they look a lot more likely to beat sides as he is their only reliable goal threat. They have particularly struggled away from home and have now not won since 22nd December outside Rome. With an away record of won four, drawn three and lost six with only twelve scored and twenty one conceded I think they're worth taking on.
Back Torino at 2.55 with SportingBet. 2 points.
Nurnberg v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
One of the sides in Germany's Bundesliga who seem to be perfectly stable are Nurnberg. They have finished each of the last three seasons comfortably clear of relegation, but without really troubling the European spots either. This season is no different with them currently residing in eleventh position. They have only lost two matches at home all season with four wins and six draws making up their twelve home matches so far. With a joint third best home goals conceded of thirteen so far it is their mean defence that is making it so difficult for visiting sides. They may not be a side to back to win at home too often as they have also only scored sixteen, but it's worth looking at opposing visiting sides with a record such as theirs.
Schalke went through a very rough spell between November and February and dispensed with manager Huub Stevens too. They have looked better in winning their last three league matches against Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg and Fortuna Dusseldorf, but these can be seen as wins against struggling sides and a Dortmund team with their focus on the Champions League. Also key to these wins was the return of Klaas Jan Huntelaar to the attack and he is now missing again. This led to them losing at home to a none-too-brilliant Galatasaray side to exit the Champions League in midweek. The game went to the last minute as a contest too and I would not be at all surprised to see a bit of a drop in performance in this.
Lay Schalke 04 at 2.35 on Betfair. 2 points.
Bursaspor v Trabzonspor, Friday 1800
Bursaspor have not been a side I've been particularly looking to back this season or last as they are trying to rebuild a team and have been very hit and miss. This does now seem to have changed though with a good run after returning from the winter break propelling them up to joint fourth in the table and a return to European football next season. Their home record is particularly good with six wins, five draws and just two losses with seventeen scored and only nine conceded. That goals against record is absolutely fantastic and shows how hard it is for any visiting side. They've not lost at home since November and have also only conceded two in the last five home matches.
Trabzonspor have been a very profitable side for us this season for laying. They are often priced up as a top side due to their regularity in challenging in the upper reaches of the table, but are really floundering this time. They currently sit in eleventh position and it is well deserved due to the awful football they often produce. The reason for this is as simple as the loss of star striker Burak Yilmaz to Galatasaray over the summer. They have failed to replace his goals or to adjust their tactics to get results and look completely lost to me.
Back Bursaspor at 2.25 with Bet365. 2 points.
Kayserispor v Galatasaray, Sunday 1800
Two weekends ago I went against my instincts and got slightly fortunate backing Kayserispor at odds on to beat Mersin Idman Yurdu. That they won 2-1 meant we all ended in profit, but they made hard work of it. It did still add to their hugely impressive home record though with six wins, four draws and just two losses. They have only scored fifteen in those twelve home matches, but it is the fact they have only conceded eight that interests me. It makes every visiting side worth a look at opposing.
This weeks visitors are a Galatasaray side fresh from qualifying for the Champions League quarter finals on Tuesday night. The winter signings of Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba were calculated risks to provide the side with players with experience of playing in major matches for exactly that type of game. The problem comes if they don't fancy particularly putting the effort in for Super Lig matches, and I can see this match being one to challenge them both. With an away record of won five, drawn six and lost two so far they are not anywhere near as imperious as they are in Istanbul and they will need to be on top of their game to get three points in this. They look a little short to do so to me.
Lay Galatasaray at 2.06 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Thursday, 7 March 2013
The Streak Is Dead...
Unfortunately last weekend saw the ending of the fantastic streak we've been on. This sad occasion was always bound to come and thankfully losses were not bank busting either. Let's get back to winning ways!
Week 28
Everton v Reading - Lose 2 points.
Sunderland v Fulham - Win 1.04 points.
Tottenham v Arsenal - Win 2.8 points.
Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao - Lose 2 points.
Catania v Inter Milan - Lose 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund - Lose 1.5 points.
Eskisehirspor v Galatasaray - Win 1.82 points.
Kayserispor v Mersin Idman Yurdu - Win 1.6 points.
Totals - Lose 0.74 points.
Running Total - Up 48.9 points.
Music this week from The Menzingers with Good Things.
Norwich v Southampton, Saturday 1500
There are FA Cup Quarter Finals this weekend, but I think there's two good bets in the Premier League so I will stick with that. First up is a column favourite, Norwich, hosting a Southampton side under relatively new management. Norwich looked one of the worst sides in the division for the first few weeks of the season before turning it around to such an extent they were second to only Barcelona on an unbeaten run right up into December. The Xmas period was a struggle for them again, and I think a lot of that could be put down to fatigue. Chris Hughton has certainly enhanced his managerial credentials by turning the sides fortunes around and he has done it in the main using the same players as much as he possibly can. Outside of the major players who have the cash to build a squad this is not unusual and the thick and fast nature of matches at Xmas seemed to leave them listless. This being said they have only lost to Liverpool (their bogey side), Chelsea and Manchester City. They've struggled for goals at times, but the defence holds out well enough at home to a side who seem unsure of what they're up to at present.
Southampton shipped out manager Nigel Adkins recently to bring in Manuel Pochettino. The Argentinian had done very well at Espanyol under difficult conditions, but this season had seemed to be a year too much and he was dismissed for a poor start. He has got Southampton looking a more 'modern' side tactically, plenty of pressing high up the pitch, shorter passing etc. But, this has not reaped many wins so far for him, although it has seen lauded performances against both Manchester sides. Away from home has been a problem for them all season with a record of won two, drawn three and lost five so far. They are also still only a win above the drop zone and you'd imagine that pressure will begin to become obvious soon too, especially in a supporter base who liked the previous managerial incumbent.
Lay Southampton at 3.1 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Liverpool v Tottenham, Sunday 1600
The big match in the Premier League this weekend for the casual viewer would appear to be this one on Sunday afternoon. In reality Liverpool's season is all but over really as they would have to far exceed their seasons results so far to qualify for Europe now. They do seem to have perfected a style that beats sides, and often very comfortably, who are not as good as them, but struggle against anyone in the top seven or so. This might seem an obvious thing to say, but the likes of Sam Allardyce play a style more likely to upset the big boys without guaranteeing results against similarly placed sides. Liverpool's home record on goals scored and conceded looks excellent on paper, but the goals for column has been hugely inflated by three matches against Norwich, Fulham and a reserve Swansea side. All good wins, but not an indicator of a side whose home is a fortress. These things into account makes odds on look very skinny to me.
Tottenham are becoming one of the more reliable betting propositions in the Premier League under Andres Villas Boas. His side are very well organised and this aids them in conceding the fewest shots to the opposition in matches in the entire division. They are also currently on an unbeaten streak dating back to the 9th December against an Everton side that was flying. They have struggled more in physical match ups than against passing sides, which does not bode well for Brendan Rodgers Liverpool. They are now up to third and look nailed on to keep that position to me, even with a tough run of matches coming up. They'll still be flying from the derby win against Arsenal last Sunday and Villas Boas has shown his rotation for the Europa League has been spot on so far with Inter Milan to play tonight. There's only one bet here I think.
Lay Liverpool at 1.92 on Betfair. 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Malaga, Saturday 1700
Only one match catches my eye as usual in Spain this week. Real Valladolid have kept themselves clear of relegation worries for most of the season now and should be looking to string a few results together and make an effort at European qualification with little else to distract them. Their home record reads won five, drawn and lost four with twenty three scored and eighteen conceded so far. They conceded three each to Barcelona and Real Madrid though so remove them and it's twelve conceded in eleven, not bad at all. They've been a little rusty since the winter break, but have only lost to Atletico Madrid in the last five league matches. Those twenty three scored at home shows they're capable of getting goals.
Malaga are back in action next week in their Champions League last sixteen tie with Porto. After a narrow 1-0 loss in Portugal they will fancy their chances since they have an excellent home record this season. Fortunately for their opponents this weekend they are not blessed with the largest squad. This should see them resting numerous players, such as star man Isco, in an attempt to enhance their European chances as much as possible. They've struggled away from hoe anyway with a record of won five, drawn three and lost four with ten scored and conceded. This lack of cutting edge away, combined with Valladolid general tightness at the back, means I think they're under-priced at present.
Back Real Valladolid at 2.5 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Udinese v Roma, Saturday 1945
Looking purely at respective home and away records this would be my NAP this weekend if I went in for such things. Udinese are finally succumbing to the selling off of their best players for the past three summers and are not putting up a challenge for the Champions League spots. They sit in ninth position in the league at present, but do possess one of the better home records in Serie A. They have a record of won seven, drawn five and lost just once in Udine so far, with twenty one scored and just twelve conceded. They have only let in one goal in their last five home matches in Serie A, with matches against Napoli, Fiorentina and Inter Milan in amongst those. All of those sides possess forwards of real quality and this mean defence is a reason to be watching their results. If you want to lay sides then I like to do so when they play a side with a good defensive record as I think you're significantly reducing your risk by doing so.
Roma dispensed with manager Zdenek Zeman and his gung-ho approach and have settled down a bit since, as well as restored a happy atmosphere within the squad. For better or worse the key men are still Francesco Totti and Daniele De Rossi and with both restored to the side all is much better at the moment. They actually have the best goals scored record in the entire division both overall and away from home, but this is tempered somewhat by the second worst overall goals conceded and third worst away goals against too. The fact Udinese have kept out some very good sides this season and of late makes me confident they can frustrate a Roma side who can be terrible if things don't go their way early on. I certainly don't price this one with Roma as favourites so they're a big lay for me.
Lay Roma at 2.62 on Betfair. 3 points.
Chievo v Napoli, Sunday 1400
In a rare move I am going to put two bets up from Serie A this week as I think they're both excellent value. I do keep a close eye on goings on in Italian football, but I'm not always sure there's a huge deal of value in prices. Chievo have traditionally relied upon their form in their small home ground to keep them out of the lower reaches of the table and this has again been the case this season so far. At home they go five wins, five draws and three defeats. This is the second best record in the bottom half of the table and their goals against score of thirteen is up there with the very best in the entire division. That they've only scored fifteen would be a worry to back them for a win, but the defence again makes me look at a lay of their opponents.
This weekend the visitors are Napoli who have been steadily falling away from leaders Juventus in their title challenge. They two sides met in Naples last weekend and played out a 1-1 draw that suited the Turin side a lot more. The problem Napoli are having is that with Edison Cavani going through a dry spell in front of goal they have noone stepping in to pick up the slack. For all the industry and assists their midfield supply, it is all aimed at laying on chances for the Uruguyan striker to finish the moves off and he is not doing so. Two goals in the last eight matches has led to poor results and four consecutive draws. The team have only scored twice in those last four matches too to show the pressure is telling.
Lay Napoli at 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
Regular readers will know that Mainz 05 have been a side I have taken a keen interest in in the last two seasons in Germany. They've had fairly steady results in the main in this period and have qualified for the Europa League under promising manager Thomas Tuchel. That he is widely tipped to succeed Jurgen Klopp should he leave Dortmund should give you an idea of his abilities. His side have not been quite as successful this season, but they are again within striking distance of a Europa League spot on minimal investment. Their home form is won six, drawn three and lost three so far with seventeen scored and only twelve conceded. They have had a few draws lately, but have only lost to Bayern Munich since mid-December.
Bayer Leverkusen were in second spot in the table for a long time, but have fallen away a bit to let Dortmund back in. They don't have the largest squad in Germany by any means and this has definitely contributed to them not being as dominant in matches as they were early on in the season. They have an away record of won four, drawn four and lost four so far and have not won away since before the winter break, in fact they've drawn blanks against sides with mean defences. They don't justify being such heavy favourites for me.
Lay Bayer Leverkusen at 2.5 on Betfair. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen, Saturday 1430
First up from the Bundesliga this weekend is another column favourite in Monchengladbach hosting a struggling Werder Bremen side. Gladbach have featured a few times recently so followers will have seen my assessment of their change of approach after Marco Reus departed to Borussia Dortmund in the summer. They were heavily reliant on his class to be the difference last season and he dragged them through enough matches to make the Europa League this season. They exited that competition in the last round to Lazio in a narrow defeat and so are fully rested for this match. Their home record this season is won five, drawn four and lost only two with twenty scored and fourteen conceded. That goals against record is good for Germany and they've conceded seven of those in matches against Werder and Leverkusen. They're a good side who have the odd dreadful defensive performance, I'm hoping against a struggling side this won't be another occasion.
Werder Bremen are now in serious danger of being relegated to the Bundesliga II over the summer. That they have stuck with manager Thomas Schaaf for so many seasons is commendable, but he has done little to suggest he can change tactics from the all out attack he has used in previously successful seasons. The difference this season is that the overall quality of the side has been reduced and they are being exposed on the break every week. Their away record is won three, drawn two and lost seven so far with twenty one scored and almost a league high conceded total of twenty eight so far. They've lost three on the spin now and look a side in serious danger to me.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.4 with YouWin. 2 points.
Istanbul BB v Kayserispor, Saturday 1200
Just one from Turkey this weekend, although I tend to take a side in the Monday matches too (follow @TopTopTips on Twitter for that). Istanbul BB had an excellent season two years ago when I first started looking at the Super Lig for betting purposes. A lot of this was down to an excellent home record that almost carried them to the Europa League spots. Sadly their small squad was insufficient in the end and they fell slightly short late in the season. This term they've been in the bottom half of the table, but have shown signs of their record improving lately. At home they go won three, drawn four and lost four so far and there have been some embarrassing results such as the loss to bottom side Akhisar two weeks ago. However comma they are unbeaten in three matches now and have twice got goals in the last five minutes to draw to show they're plenty determined enough still.
Kayserispor's home record was commented on last weekend and they came up trumps for us with a 2-1 victory over the awful Mersin Idman Yurdu. I was worried about backing a mid-table Turkish side at odds on and I'm still unsure it was the right price. Fortunately we got away with it, but I'll think hard before putting one up that is similar again. Their away record is nowhere near as good anyway with them recording four wins, a draw and seven defeats so far. This is the reason they're no higher in the table and twenty five goals conceded away tells it's own story.
Back Istanbul BB at 2.6 with StanJames. 2 points.
Week 28
Everton v Reading - Lose 2 points.
Sunderland v Fulham - Win 1.04 points.
Tottenham v Arsenal - Win 2.8 points.
Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao - Lose 2 points.
Catania v Inter Milan - Lose 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund - Lose 1.5 points.
Eskisehirspor v Galatasaray - Win 1.82 points.
Kayserispor v Mersin Idman Yurdu - Win 1.6 points.
Totals - Lose 0.74 points.
Running Total - Up 48.9 points.
Music this week from The Menzingers with Good Things.
Norwich v Southampton, Saturday 1500
There are FA Cup Quarter Finals this weekend, but I think there's two good bets in the Premier League so I will stick with that. First up is a column favourite, Norwich, hosting a Southampton side under relatively new management. Norwich looked one of the worst sides in the division for the first few weeks of the season before turning it around to such an extent they were second to only Barcelona on an unbeaten run right up into December. The Xmas period was a struggle for them again, and I think a lot of that could be put down to fatigue. Chris Hughton has certainly enhanced his managerial credentials by turning the sides fortunes around and he has done it in the main using the same players as much as he possibly can. Outside of the major players who have the cash to build a squad this is not unusual and the thick and fast nature of matches at Xmas seemed to leave them listless. This being said they have only lost to Liverpool (their bogey side), Chelsea and Manchester City. They've struggled for goals at times, but the defence holds out well enough at home to a side who seem unsure of what they're up to at present.
Southampton shipped out manager Nigel Adkins recently to bring in Manuel Pochettino. The Argentinian had done very well at Espanyol under difficult conditions, but this season had seemed to be a year too much and he was dismissed for a poor start. He has got Southampton looking a more 'modern' side tactically, plenty of pressing high up the pitch, shorter passing etc. But, this has not reaped many wins so far for him, although it has seen lauded performances against both Manchester sides. Away from home has been a problem for them all season with a record of won two, drawn three and lost five so far. They are also still only a win above the drop zone and you'd imagine that pressure will begin to become obvious soon too, especially in a supporter base who liked the previous managerial incumbent.
Lay Southampton at 3.1 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Liverpool v Tottenham, Sunday 1600
The big match in the Premier League this weekend for the casual viewer would appear to be this one on Sunday afternoon. In reality Liverpool's season is all but over really as they would have to far exceed their seasons results so far to qualify for Europe now. They do seem to have perfected a style that beats sides, and often very comfortably, who are not as good as them, but struggle against anyone in the top seven or so. This might seem an obvious thing to say, but the likes of Sam Allardyce play a style more likely to upset the big boys without guaranteeing results against similarly placed sides. Liverpool's home record on goals scored and conceded looks excellent on paper, but the goals for column has been hugely inflated by three matches against Norwich, Fulham and a reserve Swansea side. All good wins, but not an indicator of a side whose home is a fortress. These things into account makes odds on look very skinny to me.
Tottenham are becoming one of the more reliable betting propositions in the Premier League under Andres Villas Boas. His side are very well organised and this aids them in conceding the fewest shots to the opposition in matches in the entire division. They are also currently on an unbeaten streak dating back to the 9th December against an Everton side that was flying. They have struggled more in physical match ups than against passing sides, which does not bode well for Brendan Rodgers Liverpool. They are now up to third and look nailed on to keep that position to me, even with a tough run of matches coming up. They'll still be flying from the derby win against Arsenal last Sunday and Villas Boas has shown his rotation for the Europa League has been spot on so far with Inter Milan to play tonight. There's only one bet here I think.
Lay Liverpool at 1.92 on Betfair. 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Malaga, Saturday 1700
Only one match catches my eye as usual in Spain this week. Real Valladolid have kept themselves clear of relegation worries for most of the season now and should be looking to string a few results together and make an effort at European qualification with little else to distract them. Their home record reads won five, drawn and lost four with twenty three scored and eighteen conceded so far. They conceded three each to Barcelona and Real Madrid though so remove them and it's twelve conceded in eleven, not bad at all. They've been a little rusty since the winter break, but have only lost to Atletico Madrid in the last five league matches. Those twenty three scored at home shows they're capable of getting goals.
Malaga are back in action next week in their Champions League last sixteen tie with Porto. After a narrow 1-0 loss in Portugal they will fancy their chances since they have an excellent home record this season. Fortunately for their opponents this weekend they are not blessed with the largest squad. This should see them resting numerous players, such as star man Isco, in an attempt to enhance their European chances as much as possible. They've struggled away from hoe anyway with a record of won five, drawn three and lost four with ten scored and conceded. This lack of cutting edge away, combined with Valladolid general tightness at the back, means I think they're under-priced at present.
Back Real Valladolid at 2.5 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Udinese v Roma, Saturday 1945
Looking purely at respective home and away records this would be my NAP this weekend if I went in for such things. Udinese are finally succumbing to the selling off of their best players for the past three summers and are not putting up a challenge for the Champions League spots. They sit in ninth position in the league at present, but do possess one of the better home records in Serie A. They have a record of won seven, drawn five and lost just once in Udine so far, with twenty one scored and just twelve conceded. They have only let in one goal in their last five home matches in Serie A, with matches against Napoli, Fiorentina and Inter Milan in amongst those. All of those sides possess forwards of real quality and this mean defence is a reason to be watching their results. If you want to lay sides then I like to do so when they play a side with a good defensive record as I think you're significantly reducing your risk by doing so.
Roma dispensed with manager Zdenek Zeman and his gung-ho approach and have settled down a bit since, as well as restored a happy atmosphere within the squad. For better or worse the key men are still Francesco Totti and Daniele De Rossi and with both restored to the side all is much better at the moment. They actually have the best goals scored record in the entire division both overall and away from home, but this is tempered somewhat by the second worst overall goals conceded and third worst away goals against too. The fact Udinese have kept out some very good sides this season and of late makes me confident they can frustrate a Roma side who can be terrible if things don't go their way early on. I certainly don't price this one with Roma as favourites so they're a big lay for me.
Lay Roma at 2.62 on Betfair. 3 points.
Chievo v Napoli, Sunday 1400
In a rare move I am going to put two bets up from Serie A this week as I think they're both excellent value. I do keep a close eye on goings on in Italian football, but I'm not always sure there's a huge deal of value in prices. Chievo have traditionally relied upon their form in their small home ground to keep them out of the lower reaches of the table and this has again been the case this season so far. At home they go five wins, five draws and three defeats. This is the second best record in the bottom half of the table and their goals against score of thirteen is up there with the very best in the entire division. That they've only scored fifteen would be a worry to back them for a win, but the defence again makes me look at a lay of their opponents.
This weekend the visitors are Napoli who have been steadily falling away from leaders Juventus in their title challenge. They two sides met in Naples last weekend and played out a 1-1 draw that suited the Turin side a lot more. The problem Napoli are having is that with Edison Cavani going through a dry spell in front of goal they have noone stepping in to pick up the slack. For all the industry and assists their midfield supply, it is all aimed at laying on chances for the Uruguyan striker to finish the moves off and he is not doing so. Two goals in the last eight matches has led to poor results and four consecutive draws. The team have only scored twice in those last four matches too to show the pressure is telling.
Lay Napoli at 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
Regular readers will know that Mainz 05 have been a side I have taken a keen interest in in the last two seasons in Germany. They've had fairly steady results in the main in this period and have qualified for the Europa League under promising manager Thomas Tuchel. That he is widely tipped to succeed Jurgen Klopp should he leave Dortmund should give you an idea of his abilities. His side have not been quite as successful this season, but they are again within striking distance of a Europa League spot on minimal investment. Their home form is won six, drawn three and lost three so far with seventeen scored and only twelve conceded. They have had a few draws lately, but have only lost to Bayern Munich since mid-December.
Bayer Leverkusen were in second spot in the table for a long time, but have fallen away a bit to let Dortmund back in. They don't have the largest squad in Germany by any means and this has definitely contributed to them not being as dominant in matches as they were early on in the season. They have an away record of won four, drawn four and lost four so far and have not won away since before the winter break, in fact they've drawn blanks against sides with mean defences. They don't justify being such heavy favourites for me.
Lay Bayer Leverkusen at 2.5 on Betfair. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen, Saturday 1430
First up from the Bundesliga this weekend is another column favourite in Monchengladbach hosting a struggling Werder Bremen side. Gladbach have featured a few times recently so followers will have seen my assessment of their change of approach after Marco Reus departed to Borussia Dortmund in the summer. They were heavily reliant on his class to be the difference last season and he dragged them through enough matches to make the Europa League this season. They exited that competition in the last round to Lazio in a narrow defeat and so are fully rested for this match. Their home record this season is won five, drawn four and lost only two with twenty scored and fourteen conceded. That goals against record is good for Germany and they've conceded seven of those in matches against Werder and Leverkusen. They're a good side who have the odd dreadful defensive performance, I'm hoping against a struggling side this won't be another occasion.
Werder Bremen are now in serious danger of being relegated to the Bundesliga II over the summer. That they have stuck with manager Thomas Schaaf for so many seasons is commendable, but he has done little to suggest he can change tactics from the all out attack he has used in previously successful seasons. The difference this season is that the overall quality of the side has been reduced and they are being exposed on the break every week. Their away record is won three, drawn two and lost seven so far with twenty one scored and almost a league high conceded total of twenty eight so far. They've lost three on the spin now and look a side in serious danger to me.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.4 with YouWin. 2 points.
Istanbul BB v Kayserispor, Saturday 1200
Just one from Turkey this weekend, although I tend to take a side in the Monday matches too (follow @TopTopTips on Twitter for that). Istanbul BB had an excellent season two years ago when I first started looking at the Super Lig for betting purposes. A lot of this was down to an excellent home record that almost carried them to the Europa League spots. Sadly their small squad was insufficient in the end and they fell slightly short late in the season. This term they've been in the bottom half of the table, but have shown signs of their record improving lately. At home they go won three, drawn four and lost four so far and there have been some embarrassing results such as the loss to bottom side Akhisar two weeks ago. However comma they are unbeaten in three matches now and have twice got goals in the last five minutes to draw to show they're plenty determined enough still.
Kayserispor's home record was commented on last weekend and they came up trumps for us with a 2-1 victory over the awful Mersin Idman Yurdu. I was worried about backing a mid-table Turkish side at odds on and I'm still unsure it was the right price. Fortunately we got away with it, but I'll think hard before putting one up that is similar again. Their away record is nowhere near as good anyway with them recording four wins, a draw and seven defeats so far. This is the reason they're no higher in the table and twenty five goals conceded away tells it's own story.
Back Istanbul BB at 2.6 with StanJames. 2 points.
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