My favourite tournament in world football is almost upon us, and I can barely wait! Whilst I've never bet fortunes on the tournament it is always a cracking watch with everyone involved keen to impress for moves or looking forward to upcoming World Cups. Add into this the fact that the Brazil Vs Argentina rivalry is nearly always played out at some point and I think we can agree we're on to something of a winner. I will use this first Copa America edition to look at what bets are avilable in the outrights/specials markets before the tournament then add matches starting tomorrow with a look at all the weekends action.
Tournament Outright
Much as I would love to tell you that Peru or Chile might spring a long odds surprise in this market, it just wont happen. We can look no further than the giants of South American football in my opinion in Argentina and Brazil. Both somewhat disappointed in the World Cup, but are now back with fresh managers and fresh approaches. Mario Menezes of Brazil has started blooding some of the Brazilian Serie A's brightest young talents like Neymar and Ganso, and has cast aside some of the more well known, but under-performing names. With Dani Alves and Marcelo of Real Madrid at full back and David Luiz and Thiago Silva at centre back they are also steadfast at the back. This is where I think they just have the edge over Argentina. Obviously the Albiceleste have the finest player in the world in their ranks in Messi, and have reinstated the under-appreciated Cambiasso to supply him, but the defence is seriously suspect. Romero the goalkeeper has solidified his position, but Sergio Batista seems to still be in some doubt over who to pick in his back four. This is mainly due to most options having obvious faults. Back Brazil at 3.25 with Boylesports and thank me in a few weeks.
Top Goalscorer
This one should be interesting. The bookies are unanimous in having Messi as a short priced fav for this, but I'm not convinced. Whilst he has looked much more likely to score since the removal of Maradona and a system not designed to make the most of the best player in the team, I still think others appeal more. With the addition of Carlos Tevez to the squad and the form of Ezequiel Lavezzi too, I think the Argentines might share the goals out a bit. What you're looking for here is either a greedy bastard or the focal point of a team that progresses a decent distance. Which leads me to 2 names, that of Neymar of Brazil and Falcao of Colombia. Neymar fits the greedy bastard tag perfectly. He is a fine player, but really believes his own hype and is not afraid to risk the wrath of team-mates when personal glory is at hand. With Brazil being my tip for the whole thing I would definitely also be looking at the Santos man, especially with a big move and $ signs in his eyes, to stake his claim. Best price is 13.0 at William Hill. The other man is current European hotshot Radamel Falcao of Porto. Another player who is likely to be on the move, and most likely to Real Madrid having joined up with Mourinho's dodgy agent Mendes. He is part of a decent Colombia side who could be the surprise package if he nets consistently. With Uruguay seemingly falling away after the World Cup and Forlan's form deserting him too, and also Paraguay seeming weaker than in previous years. It could be Colombia's turn to rise up again. In a group containing minnows Costa Rica and a poor Bolivia side he ought to get plenty of chances. I think it's worth a poke at Falcao as top scorer on the back of that possibility. Best price is 19.0 with Boylesports.
Group A Outrights
This group contains Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica and Bolivia. Great news for Colombia and Argentina, but not great news for us backers. There are still no real specials to speak of for this group and I wouldn't expect any to appear at this late stage. The only thing I would have any investment in would be for Colombia to win the group if they can sneak a draw against the hosts, but even that seems a remote possibility. If you're desperate to back something then back Colombia to win the group at 5.0 with Bwin. But, personally I'd leave alone.
Group B Outrights
A more interesting group this one. We have Brazil, Paraguay, Ecuador and Venezuela involved and 3 of these should be in with a chance of qualification. Brazil should have no problem racking up maximum points as none of these teams pose them a serious threat at all. But, the fight for second spot should be interesting between Paraguay and Ecuador. Whilst Paraguay have more pedigree and also more recognisable names it is by no means a foregone conclusion. Ecuador have been to recent World Cups and always have a good team if not outstanding individuals. With Roque Santa Cruz hopelessly out of form they will look to new Bundesliga champion Lucas Barrios of Dortmund as their talisman. If he gets going then they may well win through, but I'm happy to take a chance he doesn't. Dortmund had a smallish squad and he has played a lot of minutes, it would be no surprise if this was a tournament too far for him. I'll be taking a stab at Ecuador finishing Top 2 at a price of 2.6 with Bwin.
Group C Outrights
Another group with only 1 whipping boy. The other 3 teams look like they could all possibly qualify. The teams involved are Mexico, Chile, Uruguay and Peru. If we discount Peru, and we should that leaves us with 3 teams who, on paper at least, have very little to choose between them. Chile have become a bit tighter at the back since the removal of Marcelo Bielsa after the World Cup, but it has come at the expense of attacking intent. Uruguay have looked less impressive since their fantastic achievements at the World Cup and Diego Forlan cut a very sad figure at Atletico Madrid at times last season. Mexico have looked more impressive now they have found a free-scoring striker in Javier hernandez of Man Utd. But, they have only just finished a gruelling CONCACAF tournament in the USA last week. Whilst they should have had long enough to recover it has definitely been factored in to prices of them as third fav's for the group. Especially since Chicarito has been left out. They have named a very young and, apart from Gio Dos Santos, home-based squad in what looks like a tournament for experience and experimenting on their part. It is for this reason I would look at Chile and Uruguay to qualify, but some tight matches in doing so. Don't expect goals in this group. I'm plumping for Uruguay mostly on the back of Luis Suarez firing and Forlan maybe looking for a move. They can be backed at 2.5 with Bet365 to win the group and I'll take that.
Wednesday, 29 June 2011
Friday, 17 June 2011
That Friday feeling...
No, not the taste of lager on your lips. I'm talking about the anticipation to the weekend's football action and the chance to improve those bank balances. We have possibly the least matches to pick from as at any point this year this weekend, but with the Under 21 tournament as well as Scandinavian, Russian and South American football, there's still plenty of chances to invest. So far the England Under 21's have looked like an even poorer version of the senior side. The entire first hour against Ukraine was spent with either the centre backs panicking as someone was within 10 yards of them, and punting it at Welbeck's head. Or the midfield panicking as someone was within 25 yards of them, and punting it out of play. Hopeless wouldn't even begin to describe the shower of shit I've so far wasted almost 4 hours of my life on. Thankfully, they have been playing sides who can play and pass, and have somewhat restored my faith in football. And I'm sure all the England lads need is more PASSION anyway, isn't it? IN-GER-LAND and all that. Anyhoo, let's take a look at where I'll be punting this weekend.
Iceland U21 v Denmark U21, Saturday 1945
My first tip will come from the Under 21 tournament in Denmark with a Scandinavian derby between Iceland and the hosts. Iceland have so far lived up to their pre-tournament reputation as leaky at the back, but have also unfortunately failed to spark up front. Gyllfi Sigurdsson has so far looked the only player of any class in the side, and has frankly looked a bit miffed at his team-mates lack of ability at times. Denmark started off poorly in being beaten by Switzerland. This result should be looked at in context though. The Swiss are adept at bringing through solid youth sides and regularly make the later stages in youth tournaments. It is transferring this into the senior side where they come unstuck, and mostly due to a lack of goals. The Danes looked much better in the second match in beating a very decent Belarus side 2-1 to give themselves all to play for in this last group match. Iceland can still qualify if results go their way and they score an absolute hatful. I would fully expect them to throw the kitchen sink at the Danes as they have absolutely nothing to lose and it is their strength anyway. I would also expect the Danes to score at least one as they will also be looking for a win and Iceland will no doubt be all over the show at the back. I'll be backing Over 3.0 goals at an appealing price of 2.42 at Bet365.
England U21 v Czech Republic U21, Sunday 1945
Also from the Under 21 tournament is England's final group game, and a must win if they have hopes of qualifying for the Semi Finals. The Czech's beat the Ukraine in their opening match and were then downed by the Spanish in their second game to leave them only needing a draw in this to qualify. England have so far been let down by their absolutely hopeless central midfielders as well as Stuart Pearce's frankly shite tactical acumen. Hit and hope seems to be the order of the day. This would be fine if Andy Carroll were playing, but Pearce seems not to have noticed that instead of a pasty, booze-ridden Geordie he in fact has a skilful black lad up top in Danny Welbeck and is wasting last season's break-out performer Danny Sturridge on the wing. Whilst I'm here I would like to add that Michael Mancienne looks like the single worst passer of a football I have ever seen and the fact he is captain of this side speaks volumes about the teams abilities and also Pearce's management. England do however possess real quality in the back four. Phil Jones looks like John Terry if 'JT' knew how to play football, and Kyle Walker looks like he is already better than Glen Johnson at right back. Although anyone who knows about positioning at all would be better than Glen Johnson. Chris Smalling and Ryan Bertrand also look a couple of very able players. I think Pearce will learn his lesson and start with the in-form Scott Sinclair ahead of the woeful Danny Rose and move Sturridge in-field more. This should see England psoing a far greater threat so I'll get behind them at more realistic prices than early on of 2.1 at most firms.
Dynamo Moscow v Tom Tomsk, Saturday 1330
Heading further East to the Russian Premier League and the land of the good home record. With the country being so large and therefore travelling between matches an arduous process many teams build their seasons on home form. Last season saw Spartak Nalchik make a concerted push for most of the season on the back of a superb home record and so far Anzhi are doing the same this term. The Moscow teams have always been involved in the title picture and this season looks like it will be no different with both CSKA and Loko in the Top 4 and Spartak and Dynamo in hovering just below Europa League positions. Dynamo have gone off like a train at home having played six matches and showing a record of 3 wind, 3 draws and 10 scored and 6 conceded. It's definitely the place to watch a match if you're looking for excitement. Tom Tomsk have played six away and have won1, drawn 2 and lost 3 with 7 scored and 12 conceded. This looks like it should be an entertaining contest! Currently Ladbrokes have odds of 2.04 on Over 2.5 goals and I would expect that to be between 1.85 and 1.9 when they do some research so get on now.
Amkar Perm v Anzhi, Saturday 1330
Another lunchtime kick off on Saturday from Russia sees this seasons surprise side so far Anzhi taking on mid-table Amkar. Anzhi have climbed the table due to being hard to beat and also having also not lost a match at home whilst also only conceding 1 goal at home in six matches. However comma away from home is a different story, with a much more erratic record. They have played 7, won 2, drawn 2 and lost 3, scoring 7 goals and conceding 10 in the process. Amkar have a home record of played 7, won 3, drawn 2 and lost 2 whilst scoring and conceding 6 goals. They are both built to not concede many and to try and get a goal and hold on to it where possible. My money would be on a low scoring draw in this match. Stan James are standout at 3.2 on the draw and I'll take those odds.
Quilmes v Olimpo, Saturday 1900
To South America now, and the Argentinian Clausura tournament for this bet. Velez have once again dominated this league, and were it not for the distraction of the Copa Libertadores they would probably have wrapped it up by now. The traditional big two of Boca and River have been slightly improved this season having failed to impress in recent years as bad finances and young players leaving at ever earlier ages had taken their toll. This match pits sixth placed Olimpo and lower mid table Quilmes together. Olimpo have been better away from home this season. They have managed to draw 5 from 10 at home, whereas they have won 5 from 9 away. This stunning away form has been hugely responsible for their climb up the table and it has been built on not conceding many away. Quilmes have been relatively similar both home and away, but have not scored enough to regularly win matches. Looking at their relative form sees Quilmes unbeaten in 3 and Olimpo having failed to win in 3 so I'm going to ignore the seasons form and look more short term. Back Quilmes at a best priced 2.4 at Stan James.
Ceara v Sao Paulo, Sunday 2000
Staying in South America sees me looking towards the Brazilian Serie A for some more action. They are only four games into the league, but Sao Paulo have so far won all those four matches having scored 7 and only conceded once. They are looking phenomenal so far and Lucas looks like a fine player having scored in both the opening matches. Ceara have only won once so far, in something of an upset by beating Internacional with 10 men away from home. In their other 3 matches they have lost 2 and drawn 1 having scored 4 and conceded 9. They are clearly the team to watch if you're a neutral in Brazil, but this sort of cavalier approach will surely see them picked apart by a tight Sao Paulo side. I was going to be greedy and handicap Sao Paulo, but that would be mad when match prices are appealing enough to make a tidy sum from. Back the away side at 2.35 with William Hill.
Flamengo v Botafogo, Sunday 2000
Last tip of the weekend will again come from Brazil's top division. As mentioned we are in the very early season so far, so it hard to be as certain of a team enduring class as opposed to just short-term form. What I am basically saying is...DO NOT PUT THE MORTGAGE ON. However, there is a chance to try and find some decent value as certain sides look a much better prospect long term. Flamengo are one such side. The odds seem to have taken into account last seasons poor finish, but they were very poor away and that was what cost them. Their home form was pretty decent and Botafogo were similar. Botafogo rose as high as fourth last term on the back of only losing once all season at home, but they lost 6 and drew 7 away. This term so far has seen Flamengo opening with a 4-0 win at home over Avai before drawing 2 away and getting a creditable draw at home with Corinthians. They have also scored 9 and bagged at least one in every match so far. Botafogo have won both matches at home, but have have been beaten by Palmeiras and held to a draw by Ceara away. I would be tempted to get behind Flamengo here. Betfair are still at 2.16 and I would expect that to be more like 2.05 by match time so take it now.
Iceland U21 v Denmark U21, Saturday 1945
My first tip will come from the Under 21 tournament in Denmark with a Scandinavian derby between Iceland and the hosts. Iceland have so far lived up to their pre-tournament reputation as leaky at the back, but have also unfortunately failed to spark up front. Gyllfi Sigurdsson has so far looked the only player of any class in the side, and has frankly looked a bit miffed at his team-mates lack of ability at times. Denmark started off poorly in being beaten by Switzerland. This result should be looked at in context though. The Swiss are adept at bringing through solid youth sides and regularly make the later stages in youth tournaments. It is transferring this into the senior side where they come unstuck, and mostly due to a lack of goals. The Danes looked much better in the second match in beating a very decent Belarus side 2-1 to give themselves all to play for in this last group match. Iceland can still qualify if results go their way and they score an absolute hatful. I would fully expect them to throw the kitchen sink at the Danes as they have absolutely nothing to lose and it is their strength anyway. I would also expect the Danes to score at least one as they will also be looking for a win and Iceland will no doubt be all over the show at the back. I'll be backing Over 3.0 goals at an appealing price of 2.42 at Bet365.
England U21 v Czech Republic U21, Sunday 1945
Also from the Under 21 tournament is England's final group game, and a must win if they have hopes of qualifying for the Semi Finals. The Czech's beat the Ukraine in their opening match and were then downed by the Spanish in their second game to leave them only needing a draw in this to qualify. England have so far been let down by their absolutely hopeless central midfielders as well as Stuart Pearce's frankly shite tactical acumen. Hit and hope seems to be the order of the day. This would be fine if Andy Carroll were playing, but Pearce seems not to have noticed that instead of a pasty, booze-ridden Geordie he in fact has a skilful black lad up top in Danny Welbeck and is wasting last season's break-out performer Danny Sturridge on the wing. Whilst I'm here I would like to add that Michael Mancienne looks like the single worst passer of a football I have ever seen and the fact he is captain of this side speaks volumes about the teams abilities and also Pearce's management. England do however possess real quality in the back four. Phil Jones looks like John Terry if 'JT' knew how to play football, and Kyle Walker looks like he is already better than Glen Johnson at right back. Although anyone who knows about positioning at all would be better than Glen Johnson. Chris Smalling and Ryan Bertrand also look a couple of very able players. I think Pearce will learn his lesson and start with the in-form Scott Sinclair ahead of the woeful Danny Rose and move Sturridge in-field more. This should see England psoing a far greater threat so I'll get behind them at more realistic prices than early on of 2.1 at most firms.
Dynamo Moscow v Tom Tomsk, Saturday 1330
Heading further East to the Russian Premier League and the land of the good home record. With the country being so large and therefore travelling between matches an arduous process many teams build their seasons on home form. Last season saw Spartak Nalchik make a concerted push for most of the season on the back of a superb home record and so far Anzhi are doing the same this term. The Moscow teams have always been involved in the title picture and this season looks like it will be no different with both CSKA and Loko in the Top 4 and Spartak and Dynamo in hovering just below Europa League positions. Dynamo have gone off like a train at home having played six matches and showing a record of 3 wind, 3 draws and 10 scored and 6 conceded. It's definitely the place to watch a match if you're looking for excitement. Tom Tomsk have played six away and have won1, drawn 2 and lost 3 with 7 scored and 12 conceded. This looks like it should be an entertaining contest! Currently Ladbrokes have odds of 2.04 on Over 2.5 goals and I would expect that to be between 1.85 and 1.9 when they do some research so get on now.
Amkar Perm v Anzhi, Saturday 1330
Another lunchtime kick off on Saturday from Russia sees this seasons surprise side so far Anzhi taking on mid-table Amkar. Anzhi have climbed the table due to being hard to beat and also having also not lost a match at home whilst also only conceding 1 goal at home in six matches. However comma away from home is a different story, with a much more erratic record. They have played 7, won 2, drawn 2 and lost 3, scoring 7 goals and conceding 10 in the process. Amkar have a home record of played 7, won 3, drawn 2 and lost 2 whilst scoring and conceding 6 goals. They are both built to not concede many and to try and get a goal and hold on to it where possible. My money would be on a low scoring draw in this match. Stan James are standout at 3.2 on the draw and I'll take those odds.
Quilmes v Olimpo, Saturday 1900
To South America now, and the Argentinian Clausura tournament for this bet. Velez have once again dominated this league, and were it not for the distraction of the Copa Libertadores they would probably have wrapped it up by now. The traditional big two of Boca and River have been slightly improved this season having failed to impress in recent years as bad finances and young players leaving at ever earlier ages had taken their toll. This match pits sixth placed Olimpo and lower mid table Quilmes together. Olimpo have been better away from home this season. They have managed to draw 5 from 10 at home, whereas they have won 5 from 9 away. This stunning away form has been hugely responsible for their climb up the table and it has been built on not conceding many away. Quilmes have been relatively similar both home and away, but have not scored enough to regularly win matches. Looking at their relative form sees Quilmes unbeaten in 3 and Olimpo having failed to win in 3 so I'm going to ignore the seasons form and look more short term. Back Quilmes at a best priced 2.4 at Stan James.
Ceara v Sao Paulo, Sunday 2000
Staying in South America sees me looking towards the Brazilian Serie A for some more action. They are only four games into the league, but Sao Paulo have so far won all those four matches having scored 7 and only conceded once. They are looking phenomenal so far and Lucas looks like a fine player having scored in both the opening matches. Ceara have only won once so far, in something of an upset by beating Internacional with 10 men away from home. In their other 3 matches they have lost 2 and drawn 1 having scored 4 and conceded 9. They are clearly the team to watch if you're a neutral in Brazil, but this sort of cavalier approach will surely see them picked apart by a tight Sao Paulo side. I was going to be greedy and handicap Sao Paulo, but that would be mad when match prices are appealing enough to make a tidy sum from. Back the away side at 2.35 with William Hill.
Flamengo v Botafogo, Sunday 2000
Last tip of the weekend will again come from Brazil's top division. As mentioned we are in the very early season so far, so it hard to be as certain of a team enduring class as opposed to just short-term form. What I am basically saying is...DO NOT PUT THE MORTGAGE ON. However, there is a chance to try and find some decent value as certain sides look a much better prospect long term. Flamengo are one such side. The odds seem to have taken into account last seasons poor finish, but they were very poor away and that was what cost them. Their home form was pretty decent and Botafogo were similar. Botafogo rose as high as fourth last term on the back of only losing once all season at home, but they lost 6 and drew 7 away. This term so far has seen Flamengo opening with a 4-0 win at home over Avai before drawing 2 away and getting a creditable draw at home with Corinthians. They have also scored 9 and bagged at least one in every match so far. Botafogo have won both matches at home, but have have been beaten by Palmeiras and held to a draw by Ceara away. I would be tempted to get behind Flamengo here. Betfair are still at 2.16 and I would expect that to be more like 2.05 by match time so take it now.
Thursday, 9 June 2011
Only serious punters need apply...
This weekend sees the start of the summer and a bit of a blind alley for those of you that solely bet on the Prem or English leagues in general. However comma if you're still desperate to bet and win then I'm here to offer some tips on the football that is still continuing over these warm/cold summer nights. We have leagues such as the Russian Premier league as well as a host of South American leagues going on throughout the time we have to be without the Prem action. In international terms there is also the European Under 21 Championships kicking off on Saturday and the Copa America to begin in Argentina in a few weeks time. All of this provides ample opportunity to make some money if you're willing to do some research and see what's what in thes strange foreign lands. Music comes from the ever present Millencolin and the truly thumping Man Or Mouse.
Belarus U21 v Iceland U21, Saturday 1700
The first match of the European Under 21 tournament from Denmark sees Belarus taking on Iceland. Both sides have fared pretty well in getting to the last eight as they have. Iceland in particular are of the impression that they have unearthed a 'Golden Generation' in the current side and are hoping this tournament will herald a new era in Icelandic football. Belarus themselves have taken great heart from holding a Spain U21 side to a draw recently that contained a number of players playing regularly at Primera level in Spain. I see this being a good advert for the whole tournament. Iceland scored 33 goals in qualifying to see themselves top scorers and also conceded goals at a fairly alarming rate at the other end. Belarus have been a much more tight unit, but will be under great pressure not to lose if they go behind. I think Iceland are a decent bet for the whole tournament if they commit to simply outscoring the opposition and as such I think the 2.25 available at Coral on them beating an unremarkable Belarus side seems decent value to me.
Spain U21 v England U21, Sunday 1945
For those of us who take an interest in the next generation of the world's best players, England kick off their U21 campaign on Sunday evening. The bookmakers make Spain fav's for the whole tournament and it is easy to see why that is. They have a number of players already playing in the Primera division and doing pretty well there.they also play a similar style of football to that which has seen the senior side dominate world football for the past 3 or 4 years. Similarly to the senior side though, they struggle to turn their immense possession into goals. Whilst the senior side have the likes of Villa, Torres and Llorente to call upon, the juniors have to look to the likes of Pool reserve Dani Pacheco. England also look good at this level, but lack a natural goalscorer. The much vaunted Connor Wickham is a fine talent, but is not a poacher. Also Benik Afobe of Arsenal is a fine physical player with plenty of pace, but finishing is not his strength. Both sides will see this game as a must-not-lose and this could see a stalemate. I would back under 2.0 goals at odds of 2.5 with Bet365.
Anzhi v Spartak Nalchik, Friday 1445
The first match in this weekends Russian Premier League sees last seasons surprise package Nalchik travelling to high flying Anzhi. Whilst we are only 10 matches into the season it is often fairly easy to see patterns emerging. The distances teams often have to travel in Russia means that teams can often make unlikely pushes for prominence on a very good home record. Anzhi have so far got a record of played 5, won 3 and drawn 2 at home. Nalchik were last seasons home team and their poor away form has continued so far this term with a record of played 5 drawn 2, lost 3 and won 0. I would be very happt to take BlueSq prices of 1.8 on a home win tomorrow afternoon.
Spartak Moscow v Rubin Kazan, Friday 1800
The last game tomorrow from the Russian Prem sees Spartak hosting Kazan. Most people will now be familiar with Rubin due to their Champions League campaigns and greta results against Barcelona. They are still a formidable team, but sides such as CSKA and Zenit are now reascerting their financial muscle and heading back toward the summit of the table. Spartak are a team on the up with players like the striker Ari now scoring plenty of goals. They may not have the backing of other teams, but shrewd signings like that have made them a team to watch. At home they have only lost once in 6 matches and have only conceded 2 in doing so. Rubin's recent success has been built on being extremely hard to beat at home and that has continued this season. But, away they have found results harder ot come by with 1 win from 5 and 7 conceded. I fancy this to be a tight match, but Spartak should come out on top. Back them at 2.76 on Betfair.
Estudiantes v River Plate, Sunday 2000
The Argentinian Clausura is entering a critcal period of the season and River Plate are scrapping for the points needed to help them avoid the 3 season average relegation. Most poeple who take a passing interest in South American football will know that Boca Juniors and River Plate are traditionally Argentina's big two. The problem for River is that they have failed to make any big money from recent graduates and find themselves in deep financial trouble. Because of their money worries they have sold the rights to their players to third parties at ever younger ages and therefore have gotten far less of the transfer fees when they have moved on. Estudiantes, on the other hand, have re-emerged as a powerhouse of Argentinian football. They have been challenging, and winning, the Apertura and Clausura championships over the past few seasons and representing the country well in the Copa Libertadores. Having lost some major players though they are not the team they were. I see this being a hard fought match with few goals. Back Under 2.0 goals at 2.1 with Victor Chandler.
Belarus U21 v Iceland U21, Saturday 1700
The first match of the European Under 21 tournament from Denmark sees Belarus taking on Iceland. Both sides have fared pretty well in getting to the last eight as they have. Iceland in particular are of the impression that they have unearthed a 'Golden Generation' in the current side and are hoping this tournament will herald a new era in Icelandic football. Belarus themselves have taken great heart from holding a Spain U21 side to a draw recently that contained a number of players playing regularly at Primera level in Spain. I see this being a good advert for the whole tournament. Iceland scored 33 goals in qualifying to see themselves top scorers and also conceded goals at a fairly alarming rate at the other end. Belarus have been a much more tight unit, but will be under great pressure not to lose if they go behind. I think Iceland are a decent bet for the whole tournament if they commit to simply outscoring the opposition and as such I think the 2.25 available at Coral on them beating an unremarkable Belarus side seems decent value to me.
Spain U21 v England U21, Sunday 1945
For those of us who take an interest in the next generation of the world's best players, England kick off their U21 campaign on Sunday evening. The bookmakers make Spain fav's for the whole tournament and it is easy to see why that is. They have a number of players already playing in the Primera division and doing pretty well there.they also play a similar style of football to that which has seen the senior side dominate world football for the past 3 or 4 years. Similarly to the senior side though, they struggle to turn their immense possession into goals. Whilst the senior side have the likes of Villa, Torres and Llorente to call upon, the juniors have to look to the likes of Pool reserve Dani Pacheco. England also look good at this level, but lack a natural goalscorer. The much vaunted Connor Wickham is a fine talent, but is not a poacher. Also Benik Afobe of Arsenal is a fine physical player with plenty of pace, but finishing is not his strength. Both sides will see this game as a must-not-lose and this could see a stalemate. I would back under 2.0 goals at odds of 2.5 with Bet365.
Anzhi v Spartak Nalchik, Friday 1445
The first match in this weekends Russian Premier League sees last seasons surprise package Nalchik travelling to high flying Anzhi. Whilst we are only 10 matches into the season it is often fairly easy to see patterns emerging. The distances teams often have to travel in Russia means that teams can often make unlikely pushes for prominence on a very good home record. Anzhi have so far got a record of played 5, won 3 and drawn 2 at home. Nalchik were last seasons home team and their poor away form has continued so far this term with a record of played 5 drawn 2, lost 3 and won 0. I would be very happt to take BlueSq prices of 1.8 on a home win tomorrow afternoon.
Spartak Moscow v Rubin Kazan, Friday 1800
The last game tomorrow from the Russian Prem sees Spartak hosting Kazan. Most people will now be familiar with Rubin due to their Champions League campaigns and greta results against Barcelona. They are still a formidable team, but sides such as CSKA and Zenit are now reascerting their financial muscle and heading back toward the summit of the table. Spartak are a team on the up with players like the striker Ari now scoring plenty of goals. They may not have the backing of other teams, but shrewd signings like that have made them a team to watch. At home they have only lost once in 6 matches and have only conceded 2 in doing so. Rubin's recent success has been built on being extremely hard to beat at home and that has continued this season. But, away they have found results harder ot come by with 1 win from 5 and 7 conceded. I fancy this to be a tight match, but Spartak should come out on top. Back them at 2.76 on Betfair.
Estudiantes v River Plate, Sunday 2000
The Argentinian Clausura is entering a critcal period of the season and River Plate are scrapping for the points needed to help them avoid the 3 season average relegation. Most poeple who take a passing interest in South American football will know that Boca Juniors and River Plate are traditionally Argentina's big two. The problem for River is that they have failed to make any big money from recent graduates and find themselves in deep financial trouble. Because of their money worries they have sold the rights to their players to third parties at ever younger ages and therefore have gotten far less of the transfer fees when they have moved on. Estudiantes, on the other hand, have re-emerged as a powerhouse of Argentinian football. They have been challenging, and winning, the Apertura and Clausura championships over the past few seasons and representing the country well in the Copa Libertadores. Having lost some major players though they are not the team they were. I see this being a hard fought match with few goals. Back Under 2.0 goals at 2.1 with Victor Chandler.
Friday, 3 June 2011
One last hurrah...
The title is a reference to the fact that it is the last time most European players will be in action for the summer over the next 2 weeks. This is as it's the wonderful Euro 2012 qualifiers again. Hoo-fucking-ray! I hate international football with nothing less than a passion in the main. Most players simply look like they're going through the motions, and since I'm about as un-patriotic as a man can get, I don't care about In-Ger-Land much either. These matches seem to bring out the worst in most people's opinions on football, with the national team seemingly only capable of being utterly brilliant or worse than Scotchland. Most pundits and fans seem unwilling to view England as they really are, a mid-table team in the grand scheme of things, capable of beating those better than them occasionally. I try to avoid the newspapers for at least a week afterwards as the countries 'finest minds' once again sharpen their knives for the nasty foreigner in charge, and pine for Sloppy Chops to rescue England from their misery. I for one, can not wait to see them get their wish and to see that insipid twat get his comeuppance at the second highest level. Anyhoo, I'll see if there's some matches worth betting on from those to be played over the weekend.
Austria v Germany, Friday 3rd June 1935
First up is something of a grudge match between two countries with a chequered history! Germany invaded Austria during the war and obviously this somewhat upset the Austrian's and they would love to restrict their visitors to a draw or even sneak a win. However comma I just can't see it. Germany are not exactly a secret any more after their fantastic World Cup campaign, but they are now one of the top four teams in international football. I would rank them just behind Spain and marginally ahead of Brazil and Argentina. Similarly to the Spanish they have all been playng together for a significant amount of time due to a number of the team rising through Germany's youth teams together. They also have the best player at Real Madrid in Mesut Ozil. The little German playmaker has been outstanding in his debut season in the Primera and whilst Ronaldo (the preening, cheating one) has grabbed the goals and headlines, Ozil has conducted play. He is just as good for Germany with Jogi Low wisely letting the little maestro roam as he sees fit to cause damage to anyone, as England will attest. With Mario Gomez also in excellent form up front, the Austrians will be in for a long evening. Back Germany -1.5 Asian Hcap at 1.98 with Victor Chandler, they should easily cover it.
Belgium v Turkey, Friday 3rd June 1945
Second up would be my pick of the evening for a neutral to watch. The reverse fixture ended in a thrilling 3-2 win for Turkey having been behind twice. It was end to end stuff in the second half and with both teams scrapping for 2nd place behind ze Germans they'll both be desperate for a win to boost their chances. When you look at the Belgian team, it contains an awful lot of Europe's most highly rated and promising players. You have the likes of Jan Vertonghen and Thomas Vermaelen in defence, Van Bruyn and Hazard as well as Steven Defour in midfield and the behemoth of Roman Lukaku up top. They really should be a side to watch, if only someone can get them playing as a complete team. Apparently it's due to national differences and club side cliques, but they can't seem to make it work together on even a 90 minute scale. Makes them fun to watch though! Turkey are nowhere near the individual level, but they do all get behind each other for the national side. They're terrible at the back though, as is evident every week in the SuperLig. This should have goals again, plenty of goals! I'm going balls out on this, so to speak, get on over 3.5 goals at 3.25 with William Hill.
England v Switzerland, Saturday 4th June 1645
I'll have a look at this one, but I'll probably avoid watching as I'm sure it'll go according to the recent script. This is the sort of match England love, a team worse then them individually and hopeless in front of goal. The Swiss seem to produce very capable defenders and midfielders, but can't find a striker that would give them the edge in tight contests. I am sure they'll make England earn a win, but they should hold no fears for the home side. Darren Bent will be alone up fornt I'd imagine with Wayne Rooney suspended, with support from Ashley Young in a fairly free role. This should cause trouble for the Swiss and I would fully expect Bent to once again prove his class by finding the net as he has done regularly for years now. England's strongest position is still at the back though. Joe Hart is a great GK for me, solid and reliable and not prone to the complete confidence failures of his colleagues. Rio and JT are also perfectly capable of marshalling a side like this, although are massively prone to exposure by pace by better sides. I'll be backing England To Win To Nil at odds of 2.2 with Ladbrokes looking great value.
Montenegro v Bulgaria, Saturday 3rd June 1930
This match pits one of the newer European nations against a close neighbour and former power in Montenegro against Bulgaria. The definite high point for the Bulgarians was their run in USA 94 with the magnificently haired Letchkov scoring to beat ze Germans the absolute zenith. Since then they have been a perfectly serviceable international side, but miles away from those past glories. Their best player has been Dimi Berbatov over much of the last decade, but he has followed most of Old Trafford's players in retiring from international football at around the 30 mark. This has left them without a talisman or any real skill and flair. They currently sit above Wales in England's group without a win. Montenegro showed in their match against England that they are a team to pay attention to. They have the traditional hard Eastern European backline and enough flair in attack to trouble a lot of sides. They should beat this Bulgaria team at home and I'll be backing them to do it at an appealing 1.99 on Betfair currently.
That'll do for now. I'll try to get another blog up to include the matches midweek next week too. Happy punting!
Austria v Germany, Friday 3rd June 1935
First up is something of a grudge match between two countries with a chequered history! Germany invaded Austria during the war and obviously this somewhat upset the Austrian's and they would love to restrict their visitors to a draw or even sneak a win. However comma I just can't see it. Germany are not exactly a secret any more after their fantastic World Cup campaign, but they are now one of the top four teams in international football. I would rank them just behind Spain and marginally ahead of Brazil and Argentina. Similarly to the Spanish they have all been playng together for a significant amount of time due to a number of the team rising through Germany's youth teams together. They also have the best player at Real Madrid in Mesut Ozil. The little German playmaker has been outstanding in his debut season in the Primera and whilst Ronaldo (the preening, cheating one) has grabbed the goals and headlines, Ozil has conducted play. He is just as good for Germany with Jogi Low wisely letting the little maestro roam as he sees fit to cause damage to anyone, as England will attest. With Mario Gomez also in excellent form up front, the Austrians will be in for a long evening. Back Germany -1.5 Asian Hcap at 1.98 with Victor Chandler, they should easily cover it.
Belgium v Turkey, Friday 3rd June 1945
Second up would be my pick of the evening for a neutral to watch. The reverse fixture ended in a thrilling 3-2 win for Turkey having been behind twice. It was end to end stuff in the second half and with both teams scrapping for 2nd place behind ze Germans they'll both be desperate for a win to boost their chances. When you look at the Belgian team, it contains an awful lot of Europe's most highly rated and promising players. You have the likes of Jan Vertonghen and Thomas Vermaelen in defence, Van Bruyn and Hazard as well as Steven Defour in midfield and the behemoth of Roman Lukaku up top. They really should be a side to watch, if only someone can get them playing as a complete team. Apparently it's due to national differences and club side cliques, but they can't seem to make it work together on even a 90 minute scale. Makes them fun to watch though! Turkey are nowhere near the individual level, but they do all get behind each other for the national side. They're terrible at the back though, as is evident every week in the SuperLig. This should have goals again, plenty of goals! I'm going balls out on this, so to speak, get on over 3.5 goals at 3.25 with William Hill.
England v Switzerland, Saturday 4th June 1645
I'll have a look at this one, but I'll probably avoid watching as I'm sure it'll go according to the recent script. This is the sort of match England love, a team worse then them individually and hopeless in front of goal. The Swiss seem to produce very capable defenders and midfielders, but can't find a striker that would give them the edge in tight contests. I am sure they'll make England earn a win, but they should hold no fears for the home side. Darren Bent will be alone up fornt I'd imagine with Wayne Rooney suspended, with support from Ashley Young in a fairly free role. This should cause trouble for the Swiss and I would fully expect Bent to once again prove his class by finding the net as he has done regularly for years now. England's strongest position is still at the back though. Joe Hart is a great GK for me, solid and reliable and not prone to the complete confidence failures of his colleagues. Rio and JT are also perfectly capable of marshalling a side like this, although are massively prone to exposure by pace by better sides. I'll be backing England To Win To Nil at odds of 2.2 with Ladbrokes looking great value.
Montenegro v Bulgaria, Saturday 3rd June 1930
This match pits one of the newer European nations against a close neighbour and former power in Montenegro against Bulgaria. The definite high point for the Bulgarians was their run in USA 94 with the magnificently haired Letchkov scoring to beat ze Germans the absolute zenith. Since then they have been a perfectly serviceable international side, but miles away from those past glories. Their best player has been Dimi Berbatov over much of the last decade, but he has followed most of Old Trafford's players in retiring from international football at around the 30 mark. This has left them without a talisman or any real skill and flair. They currently sit above Wales in England's group without a win. Montenegro showed in their match against England that they are a team to pay attention to. They have the traditional hard Eastern European backline and enough flair in attack to trouble a lot of sides. They should beat this Bulgaria team at home and I'll be backing them to do it at an appealing 1.99 on Betfair currently.
That'll do for now. I'll try to get another blog up to include the matches midweek next week too. Happy punting!
Saturday, 28 May 2011
It comes to this...
Well...this weekend seems to be a weekend of finals in terms of betting with the Champions League and also the play-off finals from The Championship as well as Leagues 1 and 2 in England. France is the only league in Europe that I pay any attention too that hasn't finished yet, but it's last games form there so I'll be avoiding them as nearly every position is tied up and I don't know how seriously teams will be taking their matches. The numerous end of season matches we have could well be dull affairs as there is so much riding on them that everyone is extremely careful to avoid any slip-ups that will cost their team the match. As mentioned previously, I am happy to keep the tips coming over the summer months from the leagues and tournaments that are still going on if there is a demand for it. So please leave a comment below if you're still wanting some guidance over the warmer months. Music comes from Black Rebel Motorcycle Club and the wondrous Fault Line, a cracking tune from a cracking album.
Stevenage v Torquay, League 2 Play-off Final 2011, Saturday 1500
The first match we come to this fine weekend is the League 2 play-off final with Stevenage and Torquay meeting. Stevenage under Graham Westley have become very effective, but pretty widely hated due to their managers many eccentricities. He is something of a modern day John Beck, he is more than happy to rub teams up the worng way before the match, to water the pitch, to take breaks around half an hour in to the match. He's a very intriguing character. They are a team built from the back forward, I personally remember seeing Jon Ashton at centre half against Cambridge and being hugely impressed. He's a bleeding enormous lump of a man, and he will clear the lines at every opportunity as well as posing a threat from set-pieces. Torquay beat Cambridge in the play-offs 3 years ago now in one of the most pathetic matches you're ever likely to see. Both teams froze on the day and either really deserved to go up after that performance. Torquay have a very similar goal difference to Stevenage, but they have scored and conceded more to get there. Chris Zebroski up front is their star man and is their top scorer. I see this being a tight match, mostly due to Stevenage's inherent reserved play. I think both sides will be happy to head into the break level. I would take the Half Time Draw at 2-14 with Betfair and also possibly take Stevenage to win 1-0 for a bit of extra money, best price for that is 8.0 with Totesport.
Huddersfield v P.O.S.H, League 1 Play-off Final 2011, Sunday 1500
I can barely bring myself to talk about this absolutely repulsive town and team, but for the sake of betting I'll try. Just before I do though I would advise everyone to avoid the dank, depressing, grey dump at all costs. A more horrible town you're unlikely to find. Now, back to the match. Both sides have reputations for playing attacking football under young, forward-thinking managers. Huddersfield under Lee Clark have a solid defence allied to a young, pacey attack. They have old head Zinedine Kilbane in midfield to provide calm and guidance to an otherwise youthful forward line. Jordan Rhodes has been a revelation since Roy Keane foolishly let him leave Ipswich for peanuts last year. With the future England international Benik Afobe also up front on loan from Arsenal, they have both pace and flair in abundance and have been unplayable at times this season. If they play to the best of their ability tomorrow then Huddersfield should win this comfortably. The problem will come if they let their standards slip. P.O.S.H are also a very attacking side, and if gaps appear in the Huddersfield backline they have the players to exploit them, in particular Craig Mackail-Smith. This will be likely to be his final match for P.O.S.H as both QPR and Norwich are supposedly looking to give him a go in the Prem next season. I think this will go to form if there's an early goal and we'll see end to end attacking and plenty of goals. I fancy Mackail-Smith to sign off with a goal and you can get 2.87 anytime with Stan James. I would also probably go for the Second Half to be higest scoring at 2.1 with Coral as both teams look to win.
Reading v Swansea, Championship Play-off Final 2011, Monday 1500
Another match with two sides perfectly capable of plenty of goals if the mood takes them. Swansea have been low scorers for the past few seasons, but have come alive of late with the loan signing of Fabio Borini from Chelsea. He has already agreed a move back home to Parma on the back of his excellent performances for the Jacks and this will be his last match in England. Reading have had one of the better strikers in the whole of the Championship this season in Shane Long. He's always been on the fringes of being the main man, but has come alive this season and has caught the attention of most of the Premier League outside of the Top 6. Whether Reading get there or not I would expect to see him in the top division next season. For Swansea, Ashley Williams has been a rock at the back and has picked up numerous club awards over the past few seasons and probably deserves his chance at Premier League level. There is also the fact that Swansea manager Brendan Rodgers was in charge at The Royals before Brian McDermott took over. He had not exactly set the world alight at Reading, but will probably feel he has something to prove to his old club and will be even more desperate to win this one. The bookies all have this as a tight one, but I think it could come alive if there is a goal before the hour mark. These matches are often dependent on a goal to get them going as the teams then know they have little choice but to go for a goal themselves. I fancy a goal early on so I'm happy to take on odds of 2.25 at William Hill on Over 2.5 goals. I would also get on Shane Long to add to his reputation with a goal, odds of 3.25 at Ladbrokes for him to score anytime look superb to me.
Manchester United v Barcelona, Champions League Final 2011, Saturday 1945
Da, da da. With both sides wrapping up the leagues in their respective countries with matches to spare, they have had plenty of time to prepare for this. It's a repeat of the final from 2009 and Sir Wrigley reckons he's learnt from the mistakes he made in that final. I think the biggest mistake was thinking he had a hope in hell of matching them anywhere on the pitch. Barcelona will go down in history as the most dominant team the game has ever seen. They regularly rack up possession percentages around 75% and no team can compete with that. The only way to beat them is to defend deep, let them play in front of you and hope they are short of inspiration for a change. Then hope to nick a goal when you get one of the few chances that will befall the opposition. I have seen a lot of people getting their knickers in a bunch this week over Barcelona's supposed 'constant cheating'. Now, I'm no fan of either Dani Alves or Sergio Busquets, as they're both two of the most disgusting cheats I've ever seen. The amount of rolling round, harranguing the referee and waving of imaginary cards is abhorrent. However, we are talking about Man Utd, the team that pretty much invented surrounding the referee to gain an advantage. And the disgusting antics of Alves and Biscuits are somewhat offset by the fact you are watching three of the world's best weaving patterns in play in Messi, Xavi and Iniesta. When you compare those three to Man Utd's probable midfield of Giggs, Carrick and Fletcher/Anderson, you get some ides of how much of a task Fergie faces. Giggs has done well in his more central role, but he pales in comparison to the very best there, Carrick is just about the worst big game player you'll ever see and Fletcher has barely played whilst Anderson has just gotten very fat. I think there's only one possible outcome, one-off match or not, and that's another Barcelona trophy parade. Take them at a fantastic 2.2 with William Hill to get the job done in 90 minutes. I would also be tempted to dabble at odds of 10.0 on a repeat of the 2-0 scoreline from 2009 at William Hill too.
Stevenage v Torquay, League 2 Play-off Final 2011, Saturday 1500
The first match we come to this fine weekend is the League 2 play-off final with Stevenage and Torquay meeting. Stevenage under Graham Westley have become very effective, but pretty widely hated due to their managers many eccentricities. He is something of a modern day John Beck, he is more than happy to rub teams up the worng way before the match, to water the pitch, to take breaks around half an hour in to the match. He's a very intriguing character. They are a team built from the back forward, I personally remember seeing Jon Ashton at centre half against Cambridge and being hugely impressed. He's a bleeding enormous lump of a man, and he will clear the lines at every opportunity as well as posing a threat from set-pieces. Torquay beat Cambridge in the play-offs 3 years ago now in one of the most pathetic matches you're ever likely to see. Both teams froze on the day and either really deserved to go up after that performance. Torquay have a very similar goal difference to Stevenage, but they have scored and conceded more to get there. Chris Zebroski up front is their star man and is their top scorer. I see this being a tight match, mostly due to Stevenage's inherent reserved play. I think both sides will be happy to head into the break level. I would take the Half Time Draw at 2-14 with Betfair and also possibly take Stevenage to win 1-0 for a bit of extra money, best price for that is 8.0 with Totesport.
Huddersfield v P.O.S.H, League 1 Play-off Final 2011, Sunday 1500
I can barely bring myself to talk about this absolutely repulsive town and team, but for the sake of betting I'll try. Just before I do though I would advise everyone to avoid the dank, depressing, grey dump at all costs. A more horrible town you're unlikely to find. Now, back to the match. Both sides have reputations for playing attacking football under young, forward-thinking managers. Huddersfield under Lee Clark have a solid defence allied to a young, pacey attack. They have old head Zinedine Kilbane in midfield to provide calm and guidance to an otherwise youthful forward line. Jordan Rhodes has been a revelation since Roy Keane foolishly let him leave Ipswich for peanuts last year. With the future England international Benik Afobe also up front on loan from Arsenal, they have both pace and flair in abundance and have been unplayable at times this season. If they play to the best of their ability tomorrow then Huddersfield should win this comfortably. The problem will come if they let their standards slip. P.O.S.H are also a very attacking side, and if gaps appear in the Huddersfield backline they have the players to exploit them, in particular Craig Mackail-Smith. This will be likely to be his final match for P.O.S.H as both QPR and Norwich are supposedly looking to give him a go in the Prem next season. I think this will go to form if there's an early goal and we'll see end to end attacking and plenty of goals. I fancy Mackail-Smith to sign off with a goal and you can get 2.87 anytime with Stan James. I would also probably go for the Second Half to be higest scoring at 2.1 with Coral as both teams look to win.
Reading v Swansea, Championship Play-off Final 2011, Monday 1500
Another match with two sides perfectly capable of plenty of goals if the mood takes them. Swansea have been low scorers for the past few seasons, but have come alive of late with the loan signing of Fabio Borini from Chelsea. He has already agreed a move back home to Parma on the back of his excellent performances for the Jacks and this will be his last match in England. Reading have had one of the better strikers in the whole of the Championship this season in Shane Long. He's always been on the fringes of being the main man, but has come alive this season and has caught the attention of most of the Premier League outside of the Top 6. Whether Reading get there or not I would expect to see him in the top division next season. For Swansea, Ashley Williams has been a rock at the back and has picked up numerous club awards over the past few seasons and probably deserves his chance at Premier League level. There is also the fact that Swansea manager Brendan Rodgers was in charge at The Royals before Brian McDermott took over. He had not exactly set the world alight at Reading, but will probably feel he has something to prove to his old club and will be even more desperate to win this one. The bookies all have this as a tight one, but I think it could come alive if there is a goal before the hour mark. These matches are often dependent on a goal to get them going as the teams then know they have little choice but to go for a goal themselves. I fancy a goal early on so I'm happy to take on odds of 2.25 at William Hill on Over 2.5 goals. I would also get on Shane Long to add to his reputation with a goal, odds of 3.25 at Ladbrokes for him to score anytime look superb to me.
Manchester United v Barcelona, Champions League Final 2011, Saturday 1945
Da, da da. With both sides wrapping up the leagues in their respective countries with matches to spare, they have had plenty of time to prepare for this. It's a repeat of the final from 2009 and Sir Wrigley reckons he's learnt from the mistakes he made in that final. I think the biggest mistake was thinking he had a hope in hell of matching them anywhere on the pitch. Barcelona will go down in history as the most dominant team the game has ever seen. They regularly rack up possession percentages around 75% and no team can compete with that. The only way to beat them is to defend deep, let them play in front of you and hope they are short of inspiration for a change. Then hope to nick a goal when you get one of the few chances that will befall the opposition. I have seen a lot of people getting their knickers in a bunch this week over Barcelona's supposed 'constant cheating'. Now, I'm no fan of either Dani Alves or Sergio Busquets, as they're both two of the most disgusting cheats I've ever seen. The amount of rolling round, harranguing the referee and waving of imaginary cards is abhorrent. However, we are talking about Man Utd, the team that pretty much invented surrounding the referee to gain an advantage. And the disgusting antics of Alves and Biscuits are somewhat offset by the fact you are watching three of the world's best weaving patterns in play in Messi, Xavi and Iniesta. When you compare those three to Man Utd's probable midfield of Giggs, Carrick and Fletcher/Anderson, you get some ides of how much of a task Fergie faces. Giggs has done well in his more central role, but he pales in comparison to the very best there, Carrick is just about the worst big game player you'll ever see and Fletcher has barely played whilst Anderson has just gotten very fat. I think there's only one possible outcome, one-off match or not, and that's another Barcelona trophy parade. Take them at a fantastic 2.2 with William Hill to get the job done in 90 minutes. I would also be tempted to dabble at odds of 10.0 on a repeat of the 2-0 scoreline from 2009 at William Hill too.
Friday, 20 May 2011
Better late than never...
Whether you agree with the title or not is probably up for debate, but nevertheless I'll treat you to a blog even though I don't really have time. I'm sure I have your utmost sympathies. Anyway, we're into the last matches of the season in most leagues so it can be incredibly difficult to predict the outcome of the games without team news. I'll try and find some games with something riding on them so we all have a better chance of a final payday. Lord knows what I'll be betting on over the summer, I'll have to research the South American Leagues I think. Maybe even tennis, although I certainly wont be tipping much of that and harming my wonderful reputation! I'll start with a bit of a political twist to music this week with Anti-Flag and One Trillion Dollars.
Aston Villa v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
This match should really be a no bet as both don't really have a great deal to play for except pride. However I see it as a potential thriller, with both sides going for broke with no repercussions to speak of. Pool seem to care little for the Europa League next season, but it looks like they'll have to stomach it. Villa have looked much better in the games since safety was assured for another season and Gary Mac has probably done his chances no harm as boss if Ged Houllier fails to reappear next season. The cynical amongst us may point to players like Ashley Young playing for a big move in the summer, but whatever the reason, Villa look impressive to me. I think they should be roughly even prices with Pool so I'll be having some on them at an appealing 3.25 with Victor Chandler. As an aside, if you ever want to get against Pool then Chandlers seem to be very happy to go best price.
Fulham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Once again I'm going against my better judgement on this really and playing it even though there is relatively little to play for. Arsenal are fighting for third spot and automatic qualification for the Champions League group stages, but it's out of their hands really. And they're in fooking terrible form losing 3 of the last 4. Villa last weekend were the latest beneficiaries of their debatable defending. Gooners fans must be tearing their hair out that Pat 'Yes Boss' Rice has signed an extension to his contract. Wenger has many qualities, but I think he needs someone to challenge him on his sides horrible defending at times, and Rice does not appear to be that man. Fulham seem to have beaten their away day blues as well as well as just playing with much more freedom since their place was confirmed a few weeks ago. Players like Clint Dempsey and Brede Hangeland pose the sort of problems Arsenal hate with their power and direct running, as well as set piece threat. I think it's well worth opposing the Gooners and seeing more protests from the supporters fed up with the increasing prices and reduced spectacle on offer. They are freely available at 1.91 at Coral Double Chance with the Draw and I'll be staking that.
Man Utd v Blackpool, Sunday 1600
This match has the potential to be an absolute belter for the neutrals. For the generally 8 or 9 fingers on one hand freak shows that are Blackpools support, those extra nails will be getting well and truly bitten. They must fancy their chances with United's eyes understandably on the Champions League and Barcelona. They're going to get their arses anded to them in my opinion, but they'll be wanting the key players as fresh as possible so expect to see the likes of Obertan and Bebe making an appearance. This should hugely fire up the Seasiders. I honestly don't think the two mentioned players would make Blackpool's line-up, so they have to fancy their chances. And as we all now know, defending will not be their priority. Mainly becasue they're worse than hopeless at it. Expect goals, and plenty of them. Back Over 3.5 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Gaziantepspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1800
This one should be interesting. Besiktas have not got anything to play for and Gaziantep have the chance to sign off for the season by beating one of Turkey's big boys. Gaziantep have secured Europa League football at the expense of Besiktas and it has mostly been because of their imperious home form. They have won 10 of their 16 home matches so far, only tasting defeat twice. They have only conceded 16 in that time too. And if you've ever watched any Turkish football you'll understand that's an impressive figure in a league that makes some pub football back four's look exceptional. The bookies have been cutting Gaziantep, but I still think there's some value in getting on the boat. I'd take them on a -1.0 Asian Hcap at 2.1 with Bet365, but I'd also encourage a back at 1.8 with Corbett Sports on the outright match prices.
Karabukspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
The battle at the top of the SuperLig has reached the last weekend, but it is as good as over with Trabzonspor requiring a 9 goal swing to topple Fener from the peak of the table. This will likely be beyond them, but Karabuk have little to play for at all and I would fully expect to see Trabzon run up an impressive scoreline in vain. They are not big scorers generally, the 3-1 win last weekend was a bit of a rarity in itself, but there's nothing for them to do except throw the kitchen sink at the opposition and pray for a minor miracle. The fact Yilmaz is back for them is huge, he has scored around 70% of their goals recently, and will need to be on top form to give them any hope of a memorable last day triumph. As I say, they wont do it, but they'll go down trying! I'd even back them at -2.0 with Bet365 at an appealing 2.5 such is my confidence in them.
Sivasspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
Another interesting match up with Fener needing to do no more than win really. They'll be happy with a 1-0 win, as they must be confident that Trabzon will fail to beat Karabuk by 10 goals. Sivasspor's season finished a few weeks ago and they will be unlikely to put up too much of a fight when Fener inevitably go ahead. They'll be thinking of their summer holidays, and probably a move to a club that can pay their wages. Fener and Sivass have both been involved in some very high scoring matches this season, and the odds reflect that. However comma I can see this being one of those matches where both teams are far too happy to settle for a low scoring match with no effort or risk of injury. Get on Under 2.5 goals at 2.62 with William Hill now.
Aston Villa v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
This match should really be a no bet as both don't really have a great deal to play for except pride. However I see it as a potential thriller, with both sides going for broke with no repercussions to speak of. Pool seem to care little for the Europa League next season, but it looks like they'll have to stomach it. Villa have looked much better in the games since safety was assured for another season and Gary Mac has probably done his chances no harm as boss if Ged Houllier fails to reappear next season. The cynical amongst us may point to players like Ashley Young playing for a big move in the summer, but whatever the reason, Villa look impressive to me. I think they should be roughly even prices with Pool so I'll be having some on them at an appealing 3.25 with Victor Chandler. As an aside, if you ever want to get against Pool then Chandlers seem to be very happy to go best price.
Fulham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Once again I'm going against my better judgement on this really and playing it even though there is relatively little to play for. Arsenal are fighting for third spot and automatic qualification for the Champions League group stages, but it's out of their hands really. And they're in fooking terrible form losing 3 of the last 4. Villa last weekend were the latest beneficiaries of their debatable defending. Gooners fans must be tearing their hair out that Pat 'Yes Boss' Rice has signed an extension to his contract. Wenger has many qualities, but I think he needs someone to challenge him on his sides horrible defending at times, and Rice does not appear to be that man. Fulham seem to have beaten their away day blues as well as well as just playing with much more freedom since their place was confirmed a few weeks ago. Players like Clint Dempsey and Brede Hangeland pose the sort of problems Arsenal hate with their power and direct running, as well as set piece threat. I think it's well worth opposing the Gooners and seeing more protests from the supporters fed up with the increasing prices and reduced spectacle on offer. They are freely available at 1.91 at Coral Double Chance with the Draw and I'll be staking that.
Man Utd v Blackpool, Sunday 1600
This match has the potential to be an absolute belter for the neutrals. For the generally 8 or 9 fingers on one hand freak shows that are Blackpools support, those extra nails will be getting well and truly bitten. They must fancy their chances with United's eyes understandably on the Champions League and Barcelona. They're going to get their arses anded to them in my opinion, but they'll be wanting the key players as fresh as possible so expect to see the likes of Obertan and Bebe making an appearance. This should hugely fire up the Seasiders. I honestly don't think the two mentioned players would make Blackpool's line-up, so they have to fancy their chances. And as we all now know, defending will not be their priority. Mainly becasue they're worse than hopeless at it. Expect goals, and plenty of them. Back Over 3.5 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Gaziantepspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1800
This one should be interesting. Besiktas have not got anything to play for and Gaziantep have the chance to sign off for the season by beating one of Turkey's big boys. Gaziantep have secured Europa League football at the expense of Besiktas and it has mostly been because of their imperious home form. They have won 10 of their 16 home matches so far, only tasting defeat twice. They have only conceded 16 in that time too. And if you've ever watched any Turkish football you'll understand that's an impressive figure in a league that makes some pub football back four's look exceptional. The bookies have been cutting Gaziantep, but I still think there's some value in getting on the boat. I'd take them on a -1.0 Asian Hcap at 2.1 with Bet365, but I'd also encourage a back at 1.8 with Corbett Sports on the outright match prices.
Karabukspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
The battle at the top of the SuperLig has reached the last weekend, but it is as good as over with Trabzonspor requiring a 9 goal swing to topple Fener from the peak of the table. This will likely be beyond them, but Karabuk have little to play for at all and I would fully expect to see Trabzon run up an impressive scoreline in vain. They are not big scorers generally, the 3-1 win last weekend was a bit of a rarity in itself, but there's nothing for them to do except throw the kitchen sink at the opposition and pray for a minor miracle. The fact Yilmaz is back for them is huge, he has scored around 70% of their goals recently, and will need to be on top form to give them any hope of a memorable last day triumph. As I say, they wont do it, but they'll go down trying! I'd even back them at -2.0 with Bet365 at an appealing 2.5 such is my confidence in them.
Sivasspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
Another interesting match up with Fener needing to do no more than win really. They'll be happy with a 1-0 win, as they must be confident that Trabzon will fail to beat Karabuk by 10 goals. Sivasspor's season finished a few weeks ago and they will be unlikely to put up too much of a fight when Fener inevitably go ahead. They'll be thinking of their summer holidays, and probably a move to a club that can pay their wages. Fener and Sivass have both been involved in some very high scoring matches this season, and the odds reflect that. However comma I can see this being one of those matches where both teams are far too happy to settle for a low scoring match with no effort or risk of injury. Get on Under 2.5 goals at 2.62 with William Hill now.
Friday, 6 May 2011
A thrilling climax...
Well, here we are at seasons end in nearly all the European Leagues. It's been a thriller as ever with the top 3 looking to be Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal, wow! This is something completely new isn't it? That being said, if Citeh can hold on to 4th spot then with the backing they have and the lure of Champions League football they may well be able to push on that bit more next year and shake things up. This week also saw both Man Utd and Barcelona make it through to the Champions League final at Wembley almost at a canter. Both sides scored first to as good as put their respective ties out of doubt and went on to secure their place. There's a lot of talk around how United can possibly beat Barca, and in my opinion, they can't. Whilst they are solid in defence for the most part, and Rooney and Hernandez are looking promising as a partnership, that midfield is dogshit. Utter tripe. Barca may not thrash them, Sir Wrigley should be too astute for that, but United will not see the ball and should be easily beaten. Music this week comes with a summery vibe...Mos Def and Ms Fat Booty.
Aston Villa v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Normally I'd avoid Wigan matches, and avoid watching Villa or Wigan matches. A pair of more turgid sides there is not in the Premier League. But, this time I'm keen to be involved. Villa are priced a bit longer than usual as it's all to play for for Wigan, and I think this is a bit of an error. Villa will still want to push as high up the table as they can, the players need to prove themselves, and the club will make more money that way. Darren Bent is always good for a goal against teams of Wigan's quality, or lack thereof, and I think Villa will probably nick it. Wigan are in the position they are for a reason. And that reason is their complete lack of quality barring Rodallega and McCarthy, neither of whom are scoring enough either. Get on Villa at 1.85 with Paddy Power now.
West Ham v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
This match is the definition of a relegation 6 pointer. The Hammers have retreated back to the majority of the seasons form since February's renaissance and are looking diabolical again. Blackburn have tried to play more football since the removal of Lamb Shank lookalike Big Fat Sam, but have failed miserably. They look toothless up front since the reinstatement of Jason Roberts, funny that, and leak goals at the back at an alarming rate. They've been particularly poor away from home so far this season and the Hammers must win this one to have a hope of staying up. And, I think they'll do it! They may be out of form, but they'll know it's now or never, and their strikers will all be playing to impress other managers and stay in the league even if the club fall. I see them giving their fans some hope to cling to. They are 2.0 are most firms and I'd take that.
Man Utd v Chelsea, Sunday 1610
The Big One at the other end of the table at Old Trafford. The home of the Asian fan hosts Chavski on Sunday and Utd will presumably be confident enough with their mostly imperious home form. Chelsea have hit form just at the right time to make a late push for the title and must win this or it's really all over for them, and possibly Ancelotti. Fernando Torres finally has his first goal, but still looks like a summer spent resting would do him good, and Drogba looks back to his best when through the centre. United have all their big guns to call on after resting most against Schalke, somewhat devaluing UEFA's premier competition, and Sir Wrigley will know this will finally be the title to beat Pool's 18 title record. He will send them out fired up for this. Wayne Rooney is back, and in one of his goal gluts, and I reckon he'll get one in this. David Luiz still leaves too much space and he should exploit this. I think the 2.4 at Paddy Power on a United win is good value as is the quotes of 2.6 for Rooney anytime with the same firm.
Valencia v Real Sociedad, Saturday 1700
A top v bottom clash from La Liga on Saturday afternoon. Valencia are in good goalscoring form with 15 goals in their last 6 matches and Roberto Soldado has 7 of those. He is in the form of his life and is greatly enjoying the service of the likes of Juan Mata and Joaquin. Sociedad have climbed to mid table, but are still only 4 points clear of relegation. They beat Barcelona last week, with the Catalans clearly having both eyes on Madrid in the week. They have wrapped up the title and know they can afford to drop points and rest for the Champions League. So I wouldn't read into that result too much. A more revealing stat is that they have lost 13 of their 17 away matches, and Valencia have only lost 4 times at home. They should coast this one and I'd back Soldado to score anytime at 2.05 with Victor Chandler.
Genoa v Sampdoria, Sunday 1945
The Genoa derby is on Sunday night in Serie A and it's usually a feisty affair! The two clubs have had fairly mediocre seasons this year and local pride is about all that's left to play for now. Since selling Antonio Cassano Samp have looked goalshy and have slumped to midtable. Genoa have lacked goals all season and that has kept them well away from European football next year. Expect all those anxieties and anger to be taken out on each other in this. Especially with the crowd baying after all day to get tanked up. I would back a Red Card at 2.7 with Unibet.
Bucaspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
Three games left to play and Trabzon and Fener are still locked together at the top of the table. They have been putting everything into their games of late knowing that any slip up at this stage will probably see them out of the race for the SuperLig. Some of the other matches have proved hard to predict with teams lacking effort in some matches then coming out all guns blazing next time, but the two giants have been all out all the time. They are a very short 1.3 away from home, but rightly so in my opinion. Bucaspor are 8 points away from safety and can be relegated if they lose this, and they will. Trabzon have led at half time in their last 4 home matches and have gone on to win them all from that position. That makes quotes of 1.83 at Paddy Power on such an eventuality look very appealing to me.
Sivasspor v Ankaragucu, Sunday 1800
This one sees Sivasspor with the chance to make sure they spend another seaosn in the SuperLig. As mentioned in the above tip, Bucaspor are 8 points adrift of Sivass with three to play. They play at the same time, but I'm sure Sivass will see this as perfectly winnable and be able to make themselves safe. They have had a revival since xmas and should see an Ankara side with little to play for off. Ankara shouldn't be discounted, they're a decent enough side, but I fancy Sivass to get the points they need. Back them at 2. with most firms to do so.
Aston Villa v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Normally I'd avoid Wigan matches, and avoid watching Villa or Wigan matches. A pair of more turgid sides there is not in the Premier League. But, this time I'm keen to be involved. Villa are priced a bit longer than usual as it's all to play for for Wigan, and I think this is a bit of an error. Villa will still want to push as high up the table as they can, the players need to prove themselves, and the club will make more money that way. Darren Bent is always good for a goal against teams of Wigan's quality, or lack thereof, and I think Villa will probably nick it. Wigan are in the position they are for a reason. And that reason is their complete lack of quality barring Rodallega and McCarthy, neither of whom are scoring enough either. Get on Villa at 1.85 with Paddy Power now.
West Ham v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
This match is the definition of a relegation 6 pointer. The Hammers have retreated back to the majority of the seasons form since February's renaissance and are looking diabolical again. Blackburn have tried to play more football since the removal of Lamb Shank lookalike Big Fat Sam, but have failed miserably. They look toothless up front since the reinstatement of Jason Roberts, funny that, and leak goals at the back at an alarming rate. They've been particularly poor away from home so far this season and the Hammers must win this one to have a hope of staying up. And, I think they'll do it! They may be out of form, but they'll know it's now or never, and their strikers will all be playing to impress other managers and stay in the league even if the club fall. I see them giving their fans some hope to cling to. They are 2.0 are most firms and I'd take that.
Man Utd v Chelsea, Sunday 1610
The Big One at the other end of the table at Old Trafford. The home of the Asian fan hosts Chavski on Sunday and Utd will presumably be confident enough with their mostly imperious home form. Chelsea have hit form just at the right time to make a late push for the title and must win this or it's really all over for them, and possibly Ancelotti. Fernando Torres finally has his first goal, but still looks like a summer spent resting would do him good, and Drogba looks back to his best when through the centre. United have all their big guns to call on after resting most against Schalke, somewhat devaluing UEFA's premier competition, and Sir Wrigley will know this will finally be the title to beat Pool's 18 title record. He will send them out fired up for this. Wayne Rooney is back, and in one of his goal gluts, and I reckon he'll get one in this. David Luiz still leaves too much space and he should exploit this. I think the 2.4 at Paddy Power on a United win is good value as is the quotes of 2.6 for Rooney anytime with the same firm.
Valencia v Real Sociedad, Saturday 1700
A top v bottom clash from La Liga on Saturday afternoon. Valencia are in good goalscoring form with 15 goals in their last 6 matches and Roberto Soldado has 7 of those. He is in the form of his life and is greatly enjoying the service of the likes of Juan Mata and Joaquin. Sociedad have climbed to mid table, but are still only 4 points clear of relegation. They beat Barcelona last week, with the Catalans clearly having both eyes on Madrid in the week. They have wrapped up the title and know they can afford to drop points and rest for the Champions League. So I wouldn't read into that result too much. A more revealing stat is that they have lost 13 of their 17 away matches, and Valencia have only lost 4 times at home. They should coast this one and I'd back Soldado to score anytime at 2.05 with Victor Chandler.
Genoa v Sampdoria, Sunday 1945
The Genoa derby is on Sunday night in Serie A and it's usually a feisty affair! The two clubs have had fairly mediocre seasons this year and local pride is about all that's left to play for now. Since selling Antonio Cassano Samp have looked goalshy and have slumped to midtable. Genoa have lacked goals all season and that has kept them well away from European football next year. Expect all those anxieties and anger to be taken out on each other in this. Especially with the crowd baying after all day to get tanked up. I would back a Red Card at 2.7 with Unibet.
Bucaspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
Three games left to play and Trabzon and Fener are still locked together at the top of the table. They have been putting everything into their games of late knowing that any slip up at this stage will probably see them out of the race for the SuperLig. Some of the other matches have proved hard to predict with teams lacking effort in some matches then coming out all guns blazing next time, but the two giants have been all out all the time. They are a very short 1.3 away from home, but rightly so in my opinion. Bucaspor are 8 points away from safety and can be relegated if they lose this, and they will. Trabzon have led at half time in their last 4 home matches and have gone on to win them all from that position. That makes quotes of 1.83 at Paddy Power on such an eventuality look very appealing to me.
Sivasspor v Ankaragucu, Sunday 1800
This one sees Sivasspor with the chance to make sure they spend another seaosn in the SuperLig. As mentioned in the above tip, Bucaspor are 8 points adrift of Sivass with three to play. They play at the same time, but I'm sure Sivass will see this as perfectly winnable and be able to make themselves safe. They have had a revival since xmas and should see an Ankara side with little to play for off. Ankara shouldn't be discounted, they're a decent enough side, but I fancy Sivass to get the points they need. Back them at 2. with most firms to do so.
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