Well, all the teams have now played once in the Copa America, and it's been a fairly damp squib so far. Both Argentina and Brazil failed to win their opening matches and now will be keen to get a win to ease their passages to the knockout stages. This is particularly important to Argentina with them being the hosts and the country still in mourning at River Plate's first ever relegation. Personally I'm hoping to pick some winners this time as I'm well aware all the upsets have cost me and you dearly so far!
Argentina v Colombia, Thursday 0145
First up is again the hosts, this time taking on tipped outsiders Colombia. Both underwhelmed in their opening matches. Argentina had to come from behind to grasp a draw from minnows Bolivia and Colombia failed to add to a solitary goal in 45 minutes against a poor 10 man Costa Rica side. I have always had faith in the Argie's to improve, mostly because they have Messi, but my faith is being tested. Coach Batista supposedly tried to mimic Barcelona in the first match in an effort to bring out Messi's best form, and it failed. He had looked impressive in recent matches though so I would expect to see them revert to a formula that suits the team as a whole rather than just their best player. Colombia haven't scored more than 2 in a match in over 3 years, and I knowingly went against form in their first match. If they couldn't put more than 1 past a 10 man Costa Rica B team then I'm beginning to fear for their longevity in the tournament. I think Argentina might nick this, but I don't think they'll run away with it. I'll back under 2.5 goals at a price of 1.95 with Bet365.
Bolivia v Costa Rica, Thursday 2315
The other game in Group A is between 2 of the lesser sides in the tournament in Bolivia and Costa Rica's under 22 side. I was very impressed with the organisation Bolivia showed in holding off Argentina in the main in their first match. They might have got lucky with their goal, but they probably deserved something from the match. Costa Rica were just lucky that Colombia didn't seem overly bothered in extending their lead from 1-0, even when the Costa Ricans were reduced to 10 men before half time. I think Bolivia will view this as very winnable, and a boost to their hopes of making the knockout stages, against the odds. I think William Hill are taking a chance at 2.0 on a Bolivia win and I'll be taking those odds.
Uruguay v Chile, Friday 2315
The two favourites for Group B meet late on Friday night in a match that will probably guarantee qualification for the winner. Uruguay were heavily tipped in a lot of media outlets to challenge Brazil and Argentina, but I still think their looking out of form since their great World Cup. This was somewhat backed up in their opening match with them falling behind and ultimately drawing with Peru. Luis Suarez got their goal, and he looks in great nick. Chile took on Mexico's C team in their opening match and emerged with a 2-1 victory. Mexico had sent an Under 22 side as guests and this was further weakened when 8 of that squad were sent home for liaising with ladies of ill repute. With all the upsets going on though, their victory looks quite impressive. They will definitely find it more difficult against Uruguay's impressive defence though. I fancy another draw in this one, with both teams as keen to avoid defeat as they are to win. Back it at a best priced 3.25 with Ladbrokes.
Peru v Mexico, Saturday 0145
The second match in Group B should be fairly interesting. Whoever wins this one should have a shot at reaching the knockout stages in their last group games. A draw would be ok for Peru, but with Chile left to play I would expect them to really go for this match. Mexico really are an unknown quantity to all but keen followers of their domestic league. It is a real chance for their young players to impress both their national manager and also any scouts at the games. For this reason they should not be underestimated, but equally Peru will rightly be favs for this match up. This being said I think Sportingbet have gone way out on a limb pricing Peru at 2.5 and I'd advise taking those odds now before they go.
Brazil v Paraguay, Saturday 2000
The evening match on Saturday sees my tournament tips Brazil taking on Paraguay. Brazil stuttered in their first match, having trouble breaking down a resiliant Venezuela side and finishing up 0-0. Venezuela have recently impressed in youth tournaments and some of the more impressive juniors are now making a name for themselves in the senior side. This is making Group C look like the most interesting group as every team has a chance of qualifying. Brazil are no longer the Samba, Joga Bonita side of old. They have something of a 'broken team', with the centre backs and central midfield instructed to stay back and hold whilst the full backs and forwards push on. Neymar looked disappointing to those expecting some sort of Messi Mark II with quotes of a £40mil price tag knocking around. He is not one to battle when it's tough going. Paraguay also opened up with a 0-0 draw, this time against Ecuador. I personally view Ecuador as better than Paraguay in a team sense and can easily see them being over-run by Brazil in this. Brazil will be keen to pick up a win and a cushion in their last match against the always tricky Ecuadorians. Back them -1.0 asian with Victor Chandler at 2.18.
Venezuela v Ecuador, Saturday 2230
Final match of these second round of games has 2 under-rated sides meeting. Both Venezuela and Ecuador picked up draws in their opening matches when starting as outsiders. In the case of Venezuela, they may well be a side to watch in the coming years. As mentioned, they have done well in youth tournaments in the last decade and it looks like they're beginning to reap the rewards. With Paraguay looking tired, and Uruguay with a World Cup hangover, they may well even qualify for Brazil 2014. Ecuador have become something of a fixture at World Cup's recently. Whilst they haven't got any superstars except maybe Antonio Valencia, they are a fantastic team who punch well above their weight. Goals have always been something of a problem for them though. However commma I can see some goals in this one. I think both sides will see this as the most winnable match and throw men forward accordingly. William Hill are as long as 2.5 for over 2.5 goals and I think that should be snapped up.
Wednesday, 6 July 2011
Friday, 1 July 2011
Copa Load Of This...
Do you see what I did there? Tomorrow at 0145 GMT we finally have the kick-off in the first match of possibly the most colourful, entertaining, violent tournament in world football today, the Copa America. Argentina are hosting this feast of latin football, and I'm hopeful we'l see some cracking football, plenty of goals and hopefully some players we haven't seen a lot of yet. I would personally have my eyes open for Ganso of Brazil and Guarin of Uruguay. Both have been mentioned as fantastic players in certain publications, but have yet to capture the world's imagination and this could well be the tournament where they do that. I will look at each round of games as a group of six matches and publish every 4 or 5 days during the tournament to make sure I cover the lot.
Argentina v Bolivia, 0145 Saturday
As mentioned, the first match sees the hosts Argentina taking on perennial no-hopers Bolivia. Bolivia's most famous player is probably Marco Etcheverry, most remembered for getting sent off within minutes of his only World Cup appearance. Apart from that they have mostly been on the wrong end of some bad beatings. Argentina come into the tournament having lost a couple of recent friendlies, but not too much should be read into those. Sergio Batista has been blooding all sorts of fringe players of late to help him narrow down his squad and most, if not all, of them are unlikely to feature at all in this tournament. The Argentine public also view this as a chance to cast the country in a good light and the players will not be short of encouragement to do so. And they have the best player in football, which can't hurt can it? I would be backing a heavy win here. Even though the Albiceleste have a dodgy backline, I wouldn't expect Bolivia to score. I think the best value is on a bet of Argentina to win both halves at 1.8 with Stan James.
Colombia v Costa Rica, 1930 Saturday
Second game also comes from Group A and sees my outside tip, Colombia, taking on another whipping boy in Costa Rica. Costa Rica are probably most famous in this country for the bandy legged wonder Paolo Wanchope, a man who seemingly never knew himself what his legs were up to! These days they have no players in any big European Leagues and will probably be content to head home post tournament without suffering any embarrassments. Colombia contain Europe's most wanted striker in Radamel Falcao, a man who seemingly has it all in terms of the modern forward. He is also relatively free of ego, a rare trait in the modern footballer. I think he'll end up at Real Madrid as he has signed with Jose's dodgy agent friend Jorge Mendes, Skybet were 5.0 on that eventuality and I'd still be tempted at any price 4.0 or above. They also have his Porto teammate Freddy Guarin, who provided his supply line for most of the season. If these 2 can again link up then Colombia could go far here. I would back them -1.5 asian at 2.05 with Bet365 for this opening game.
Brazil v Venezuela, 2000 Sunday
Third game in and we see the other half of South America's big two with Brazil getting involved against another minnow in Venezuela. Venezuela have never been to the World Cup and have no pedigree in major tournaments at all. They are a small country and have never produced any players you or I would have heard of. This is absolutely no reason to right them off completely as a team, but they should provide no task for the might of Brazil. Under new coach Mario Menezes, Brazil have restructured the side. They are still tight at the back, a Dunga trait, but have blooded new, exciting players in the forward line as well as more attacking full backs. Lucas of Liverpool is also now a regular, mostly to provide extra cover when Marcelo and Dani Alves (the cheating prick of a man) go bombing on forward from full back. They usually start with Neymar, Pato and Ganso as a fluid triumvirate in the forward line now. All three are under 22 and come with the speed and audacity you might expect, also in Neymar's case some of the most pathetic diving you'll ever see. He'll seriously never make a career in England with the way he throws himself in the air now. I see this going a very similar way to Argentina's opener and will be betting the same market. I think there is some excellent value in Paddy Power quotes of 2.3 on Brazil to win both halves. Get involved with that.
Paraguay v Ecuador, 2230 Sunday
Fourth match in and we finally see a more even contest. Paraguay have been something of a force in South America for the last decade, producing players like Roque Santa Cruz and Lucas Barrios who have done well in Europe and aided them qualifying for World Cups. But, Santa Cruz looks half a man these days and his season at Blackburn where he scored a number of goals now looks like a one-off. They are simply not the team they were even a year ago. Other players like Paolo Da Silva and Cristian Riveros have ended up at European sides (Sunderland in this case) and found themselves out of the side and low on match practise and confidence. Ecuador on the other hand are always a danger. Whilst they have never really had a 'superstar' player, they are always a tight team unit and can cause most teams problems given the chance. Antonio Valencia will be their star man having returned strongly from injury for Man Utd at the end of the season. I think they are more than capable of giving Paraguay a scare, but it will probably be a low-scoring affair with both teams keen not to lose with Brazil also in Group B. Take the Draw or Ecuador in the Double Chance market at 1.9 with Skybet.
Uruguay v Peru, 2315 Monday
The final matches of this first round of games come from Group C. First up is World Cup surprise package Uruguay against Peru. Peru have probably not had much to shout about since the days of Trumpet playing Nobby Solano. They will probably be another team happy to escape the tournament having not suffered too heavy a defeat on the way. Uruguay's players have been on a high since the World Cup and in some cases have been on fire. This is particularly true of Napoli's Edison Cavani who ended the season as top scorer in Serie A and has been linked with a move away to a major team. Luis Suarez also finished the season well after transferring to Liverpool, looking like the only bit of creativity in a fairly workmanlike Pool side. Diego Forlan was the exception. After a couple of brilliant seasons at Atletico Madrid a fall out with management led to him often finding himself on the bench and angling for a move away from Spain's capital. This could well lead to some sluggish performances or a glorious swansong before one last big move. I would expect Uruguay to win this comfortably and will be backing them to win to nil at 2.0 with Ladbrokes as they have one of the best defences in South America.
Chile v Mexico, 0145 Tuesday
Last match of this tips blog comes from Group C in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Chile were a lot of people's outsiders for a decent World Cup run under Marcelo Bielsa and his somewhat different 3-3-1-3 formation. Sadly, the attacking flair that saw them looking excellent in qualifying deserted them at the tournament proper. Bielsa, having always been somewhat tricky to work with, was dispensed with after their exit. Their new coach, Claudio Borghi, has sought to make them a more difficult to beat side and they have lost some of the magic that made them a second team for many neutrals. Mexico have just come from winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup, North America's premier tournament, having spanked the USA 4-2 in the final. They have given a number of players time-off after that and head to this tournament with a team entirely made up of players from the Mexican League and Gio Dos Santos of Spurs. They may well see this as a chance to experiment and see how some fringe players cope with top level football. I certainly would not expect them to make too much of an impression. I wouldn't expect Mexico to have much to offer in attack in the absence of Man Utd's Javier Hernandez so I think Chile might well keep a clean sheet here. Ladbrokes go 2.1 on that possibility and I'll go for that in this one.
Argentina v Bolivia, 0145 Saturday
As mentioned, the first match sees the hosts Argentina taking on perennial no-hopers Bolivia. Bolivia's most famous player is probably Marco Etcheverry, most remembered for getting sent off within minutes of his only World Cup appearance. Apart from that they have mostly been on the wrong end of some bad beatings. Argentina come into the tournament having lost a couple of recent friendlies, but not too much should be read into those. Sergio Batista has been blooding all sorts of fringe players of late to help him narrow down his squad and most, if not all, of them are unlikely to feature at all in this tournament. The Argentine public also view this as a chance to cast the country in a good light and the players will not be short of encouragement to do so. And they have the best player in football, which can't hurt can it? I would be backing a heavy win here. Even though the Albiceleste have a dodgy backline, I wouldn't expect Bolivia to score. I think the best value is on a bet of Argentina to win both halves at 1.8 with Stan James.
Colombia v Costa Rica, 1930 Saturday
Second game also comes from Group A and sees my outside tip, Colombia, taking on another whipping boy in Costa Rica. Costa Rica are probably most famous in this country for the bandy legged wonder Paolo Wanchope, a man who seemingly never knew himself what his legs were up to! These days they have no players in any big European Leagues and will probably be content to head home post tournament without suffering any embarrassments. Colombia contain Europe's most wanted striker in Radamel Falcao, a man who seemingly has it all in terms of the modern forward. He is also relatively free of ego, a rare trait in the modern footballer. I think he'll end up at Real Madrid as he has signed with Jose's dodgy agent friend Jorge Mendes, Skybet were 5.0 on that eventuality and I'd still be tempted at any price 4.0 or above. They also have his Porto teammate Freddy Guarin, who provided his supply line for most of the season. If these 2 can again link up then Colombia could go far here. I would back them -1.5 asian at 2.05 with Bet365 for this opening game.
Brazil v Venezuela, 2000 Sunday
Third game in and we see the other half of South America's big two with Brazil getting involved against another minnow in Venezuela. Venezuela have never been to the World Cup and have no pedigree in major tournaments at all. They are a small country and have never produced any players you or I would have heard of. This is absolutely no reason to right them off completely as a team, but they should provide no task for the might of Brazil. Under new coach Mario Menezes, Brazil have restructured the side. They are still tight at the back, a Dunga trait, but have blooded new, exciting players in the forward line as well as more attacking full backs. Lucas of Liverpool is also now a regular, mostly to provide extra cover when Marcelo and Dani Alves (the cheating prick of a man) go bombing on forward from full back. They usually start with Neymar, Pato and Ganso as a fluid triumvirate in the forward line now. All three are under 22 and come with the speed and audacity you might expect, also in Neymar's case some of the most pathetic diving you'll ever see. He'll seriously never make a career in England with the way he throws himself in the air now. I see this going a very similar way to Argentina's opener and will be betting the same market. I think there is some excellent value in Paddy Power quotes of 2.3 on Brazil to win both halves. Get involved with that.
Paraguay v Ecuador, 2230 Sunday
Fourth match in and we finally see a more even contest. Paraguay have been something of a force in South America for the last decade, producing players like Roque Santa Cruz and Lucas Barrios who have done well in Europe and aided them qualifying for World Cups. But, Santa Cruz looks half a man these days and his season at Blackburn where he scored a number of goals now looks like a one-off. They are simply not the team they were even a year ago. Other players like Paolo Da Silva and Cristian Riveros have ended up at European sides (Sunderland in this case) and found themselves out of the side and low on match practise and confidence. Ecuador on the other hand are always a danger. Whilst they have never really had a 'superstar' player, they are always a tight team unit and can cause most teams problems given the chance. Antonio Valencia will be their star man having returned strongly from injury for Man Utd at the end of the season. I think they are more than capable of giving Paraguay a scare, but it will probably be a low-scoring affair with both teams keen not to lose with Brazil also in Group B. Take the Draw or Ecuador in the Double Chance market at 1.9 with Skybet.
Uruguay v Peru, 2315 Monday
The final matches of this first round of games come from Group C. First up is World Cup surprise package Uruguay against Peru. Peru have probably not had much to shout about since the days of Trumpet playing Nobby Solano. They will probably be another team happy to escape the tournament having not suffered too heavy a defeat on the way. Uruguay's players have been on a high since the World Cup and in some cases have been on fire. This is particularly true of Napoli's Edison Cavani who ended the season as top scorer in Serie A and has been linked with a move away to a major team. Luis Suarez also finished the season well after transferring to Liverpool, looking like the only bit of creativity in a fairly workmanlike Pool side. Diego Forlan was the exception. After a couple of brilliant seasons at Atletico Madrid a fall out with management led to him often finding himself on the bench and angling for a move away from Spain's capital. This could well lead to some sluggish performances or a glorious swansong before one last big move. I would expect Uruguay to win this comfortably and will be backing them to win to nil at 2.0 with Ladbrokes as they have one of the best defences in South America.
Chile v Mexico, 0145 Tuesday
Last match of this tips blog comes from Group C in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Chile were a lot of people's outsiders for a decent World Cup run under Marcelo Bielsa and his somewhat different 3-3-1-3 formation. Sadly, the attacking flair that saw them looking excellent in qualifying deserted them at the tournament proper. Bielsa, having always been somewhat tricky to work with, was dispensed with after their exit. Their new coach, Claudio Borghi, has sought to make them a more difficult to beat side and they have lost some of the magic that made them a second team for many neutrals. Mexico have just come from winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup, North America's premier tournament, having spanked the USA 4-2 in the final. They have given a number of players time-off after that and head to this tournament with a team entirely made up of players from the Mexican League and Gio Dos Santos of Spurs. They may well see this as a chance to experiment and see how some fringe players cope with top level football. I certainly would not expect them to make too much of an impression. I wouldn't expect Mexico to have much to offer in attack in the absence of Man Utd's Javier Hernandez so I think Chile might well keep a clean sheet here. Ladbrokes go 2.1 on that possibility and I'll go for that in this one.
Wednesday, 29 June 2011
Cope America. Fiesta time!!!
My favourite tournament in world football is almost upon us, and I can barely wait! Whilst I've never bet fortunes on the tournament it is always a cracking watch with everyone involved keen to impress for moves or looking forward to upcoming World Cups. Add into this the fact that the Brazil Vs Argentina rivalry is nearly always played out at some point and I think we can agree we're on to something of a winner. I will use this first Copa America edition to look at what bets are avilable in the outrights/specials markets before the tournament then add matches starting tomorrow with a look at all the weekends action.
Tournament Outright
Much as I would love to tell you that Peru or Chile might spring a long odds surprise in this market, it just wont happen. We can look no further than the giants of South American football in my opinion in Argentina and Brazil. Both somewhat disappointed in the World Cup, but are now back with fresh managers and fresh approaches. Mario Menezes of Brazil has started blooding some of the Brazilian Serie A's brightest young talents like Neymar and Ganso, and has cast aside some of the more well known, but under-performing names. With Dani Alves and Marcelo of Real Madrid at full back and David Luiz and Thiago Silva at centre back they are also steadfast at the back. This is where I think they just have the edge over Argentina. Obviously the Albiceleste have the finest player in the world in their ranks in Messi, and have reinstated the under-appreciated Cambiasso to supply him, but the defence is seriously suspect. Romero the goalkeeper has solidified his position, but Sergio Batista seems to still be in some doubt over who to pick in his back four. This is mainly due to most options having obvious faults. Back Brazil at 3.25 with Boylesports and thank me in a few weeks.
Top Goalscorer
This one should be interesting. The bookies are unanimous in having Messi as a short priced fav for this, but I'm not convinced. Whilst he has looked much more likely to score since the removal of Maradona and a system not designed to make the most of the best player in the team, I still think others appeal more. With the addition of Carlos Tevez to the squad and the form of Ezequiel Lavezzi too, I think the Argentines might share the goals out a bit. What you're looking for here is either a greedy bastard or the focal point of a team that progresses a decent distance. Which leads me to 2 names, that of Neymar of Brazil and Falcao of Colombia. Neymar fits the greedy bastard tag perfectly. He is a fine player, but really believes his own hype and is not afraid to risk the wrath of team-mates when personal glory is at hand. With Brazil being my tip for the whole thing I would definitely also be looking at the Santos man, especially with a big move and $ signs in his eyes, to stake his claim. Best price is 13.0 at William Hill. The other man is current European hotshot Radamel Falcao of Porto. Another player who is likely to be on the move, and most likely to Real Madrid having joined up with Mourinho's dodgy agent Mendes. He is part of a decent Colombia side who could be the surprise package if he nets consistently. With Uruguay seemingly falling away after the World Cup and Forlan's form deserting him too, and also Paraguay seeming weaker than in previous years. It could be Colombia's turn to rise up again. In a group containing minnows Costa Rica and a poor Bolivia side he ought to get plenty of chances. I think it's worth a poke at Falcao as top scorer on the back of that possibility. Best price is 19.0 with Boylesports.
Group A Outrights
This group contains Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica and Bolivia. Great news for Colombia and Argentina, but not great news for us backers. There are still no real specials to speak of for this group and I wouldn't expect any to appear at this late stage. The only thing I would have any investment in would be for Colombia to win the group if they can sneak a draw against the hosts, but even that seems a remote possibility. If you're desperate to back something then back Colombia to win the group at 5.0 with Bwin. But, personally I'd leave alone.
Group B Outrights
A more interesting group this one. We have Brazil, Paraguay, Ecuador and Venezuela involved and 3 of these should be in with a chance of qualification. Brazil should have no problem racking up maximum points as none of these teams pose them a serious threat at all. But, the fight for second spot should be interesting between Paraguay and Ecuador. Whilst Paraguay have more pedigree and also more recognisable names it is by no means a foregone conclusion. Ecuador have been to recent World Cups and always have a good team if not outstanding individuals. With Roque Santa Cruz hopelessly out of form they will look to new Bundesliga champion Lucas Barrios of Dortmund as their talisman. If he gets going then they may well win through, but I'm happy to take a chance he doesn't. Dortmund had a smallish squad and he has played a lot of minutes, it would be no surprise if this was a tournament too far for him. I'll be taking a stab at Ecuador finishing Top 2 at a price of 2.6 with Bwin.
Group C Outrights
Another group with only 1 whipping boy. The other 3 teams look like they could all possibly qualify. The teams involved are Mexico, Chile, Uruguay and Peru. If we discount Peru, and we should that leaves us with 3 teams who, on paper at least, have very little to choose between them. Chile have become a bit tighter at the back since the removal of Marcelo Bielsa after the World Cup, but it has come at the expense of attacking intent. Uruguay have looked less impressive since their fantastic achievements at the World Cup and Diego Forlan cut a very sad figure at Atletico Madrid at times last season. Mexico have looked more impressive now they have found a free-scoring striker in Javier hernandez of Man Utd. But, they have only just finished a gruelling CONCACAF tournament in the USA last week. Whilst they should have had long enough to recover it has definitely been factored in to prices of them as third fav's for the group. Especially since Chicarito has been left out. They have named a very young and, apart from Gio Dos Santos, home-based squad in what looks like a tournament for experience and experimenting on their part. It is for this reason I would look at Chile and Uruguay to qualify, but some tight matches in doing so. Don't expect goals in this group. I'm plumping for Uruguay mostly on the back of Luis Suarez firing and Forlan maybe looking for a move. They can be backed at 2.5 with Bet365 to win the group and I'll take that.
Tournament Outright
Much as I would love to tell you that Peru or Chile might spring a long odds surprise in this market, it just wont happen. We can look no further than the giants of South American football in my opinion in Argentina and Brazil. Both somewhat disappointed in the World Cup, but are now back with fresh managers and fresh approaches. Mario Menezes of Brazil has started blooding some of the Brazilian Serie A's brightest young talents like Neymar and Ganso, and has cast aside some of the more well known, but under-performing names. With Dani Alves and Marcelo of Real Madrid at full back and David Luiz and Thiago Silva at centre back they are also steadfast at the back. This is where I think they just have the edge over Argentina. Obviously the Albiceleste have the finest player in the world in their ranks in Messi, and have reinstated the under-appreciated Cambiasso to supply him, but the defence is seriously suspect. Romero the goalkeeper has solidified his position, but Sergio Batista seems to still be in some doubt over who to pick in his back four. This is mainly due to most options having obvious faults. Back Brazil at 3.25 with Boylesports and thank me in a few weeks.
Top Goalscorer
This one should be interesting. The bookies are unanimous in having Messi as a short priced fav for this, but I'm not convinced. Whilst he has looked much more likely to score since the removal of Maradona and a system not designed to make the most of the best player in the team, I still think others appeal more. With the addition of Carlos Tevez to the squad and the form of Ezequiel Lavezzi too, I think the Argentines might share the goals out a bit. What you're looking for here is either a greedy bastard or the focal point of a team that progresses a decent distance. Which leads me to 2 names, that of Neymar of Brazil and Falcao of Colombia. Neymar fits the greedy bastard tag perfectly. He is a fine player, but really believes his own hype and is not afraid to risk the wrath of team-mates when personal glory is at hand. With Brazil being my tip for the whole thing I would definitely also be looking at the Santos man, especially with a big move and $ signs in his eyes, to stake his claim. Best price is 13.0 at William Hill. The other man is current European hotshot Radamel Falcao of Porto. Another player who is likely to be on the move, and most likely to Real Madrid having joined up with Mourinho's dodgy agent Mendes. He is part of a decent Colombia side who could be the surprise package if he nets consistently. With Uruguay seemingly falling away after the World Cup and Forlan's form deserting him too, and also Paraguay seeming weaker than in previous years. It could be Colombia's turn to rise up again. In a group containing minnows Costa Rica and a poor Bolivia side he ought to get plenty of chances. I think it's worth a poke at Falcao as top scorer on the back of that possibility. Best price is 19.0 with Boylesports.
Group A Outrights
This group contains Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica and Bolivia. Great news for Colombia and Argentina, but not great news for us backers. There are still no real specials to speak of for this group and I wouldn't expect any to appear at this late stage. The only thing I would have any investment in would be for Colombia to win the group if they can sneak a draw against the hosts, but even that seems a remote possibility. If you're desperate to back something then back Colombia to win the group at 5.0 with Bwin. But, personally I'd leave alone.
Group B Outrights
A more interesting group this one. We have Brazil, Paraguay, Ecuador and Venezuela involved and 3 of these should be in with a chance of qualification. Brazil should have no problem racking up maximum points as none of these teams pose them a serious threat at all. But, the fight for second spot should be interesting between Paraguay and Ecuador. Whilst Paraguay have more pedigree and also more recognisable names it is by no means a foregone conclusion. Ecuador have been to recent World Cups and always have a good team if not outstanding individuals. With Roque Santa Cruz hopelessly out of form they will look to new Bundesliga champion Lucas Barrios of Dortmund as their talisman. If he gets going then they may well win through, but I'm happy to take a chance he doesn't. Dortmund had a smallish squad and he has played a lot of minutes, it would be no surprise if this was a tournament too far for him. I'll be taking a stab at Ecuador finishing Top 2 at a price of 2.6 with Bwin.
Group C Outrights
Another group with only 1 whipping boy. The other 3 teams look like they could all possibly qualify. The teams involved are Mexico, Chile, Uruguay and Peru. If we discount Peru, and we should that leaves us with 3 teams who, on paper at least, have very little to choose between them. Chile have become a bit tighter at the back since the removal of Marcelo Bielsa after the World Cup, but it has come at the expense of attacking intent. Uruguay have looked less impressive since their fantastic achievements at the World Cup and Diego Forlan cut a very sad figure at Atletico Madrid at times last season. Mexico have looked more impressive now they have found a free-scoring striker in Javier hernandez of Man Utd. But, they have only just finished a gruelling CONCACAF tournament in the USA last week. Whilst they should have had long enough to recover it has definitely been factored in to prices of them as third fav's for the group. Especially since Chicarito has been left out. They have named a very young and, apart from Gio Dos Santos, home-based squad in what looks like a tournament for experience and experimenting on their part. It is for this reason I would look at Chile and Uruguay to qualify, but some tight matches in doing so. Don't expect goals in this group. I'm plumping for Uruguay mostly on the back of Luis Suarez firing and Forlan maybe looking for a move. They can be backed at 2.5 with Bet365 to win the group and I'll take that.
Friday, 17 June 2011
That Friday feeling...
No, not the taste of lager on your lips. I'm talking about the anticipation to the weekend's football action and the chance to improve those bank balances. We have possibly the least matches to pick from as at any point this year this weekend, but with the Under 21 tournament as well as Scandinavian, Russian and South American football, there's still plenty of chances to invest. So far the England Under 21's have looked like an even poorer version of the senior side. The entire first hour against Ukraine was spent with either the centre backs panicking as someone was within 10 yards of them, and punting it at Welbeck's head. Or the midfield panicking as someone was within 25 yards of them, and punting it out of play. Hopeless wouldn't even begin to describe the shower of shit I've so far wasted almost 4 hours of my life on. Thankfully, they have been playing sides who can play and pass, and have somewhat restored my faith in football. And I'm sure all the England lads need is more PASSION anyway, isn't it? IN-GER-LAND and all that. Anyhoo, let's take a look at where I'll be punting this weekend.
Iceland U21 v Denmark U21, Saturday 1945
My first tip will come from the Under 21 tournament in Denmark with a Scandinavian derby between Iceland and the hosts. Iceland have so far lived up to their pre-tournament reputation as leaky at the back, but have also unfortunately failed to spark up front. Gyllfi Sigurdsson has so far looked the only player of any class in the side, and has frankly looked a bit miffed at his team-mates lack of ability at times. Denmark started off poorly in being beaten by Switzerland. This result should be looked at in context though. The Swiss are adept at bringing through solid youth sides and regularly make the later stages in youth tournaments. It is transferring this into the senior side where they come unstuck, and mostly due to a lack of goals. The Danes looked much better in the second match in beating a very decent Belarus side 2-1 to give themselves all to play for in this last group match. Iceland can still qualify if results go their way and they score an absolute hatful. I would fully expect them to throw the kitchen sink at the Danes as they have absolutely nothing to lose and it is their strength anyway. I would also expect the Danes to score at least one as they will also be looking for a win and Iceland will no doubt be all over the show at the back. I'll be backing Over 3.0 goals at an appealing price of 2.42 at Bet365.
England U21 v Czech Republic U21, Sunday 1945
Also from the Under 21 tournament is England's final group game, and a must win if they have hopes of qualifying for the Semi Finals. The Czech's beat the Ukraine in their opening match and were then downed by the Spanish in their second game to leave them only needing a draw in this to qualify. England have so far been let down by their absolutely hopeless central midfielders as well as Stuart Pearce's frankly shite tactical acumen. Hit and hope seems to be the order of the day. This would be fine if Andy Carroll were playing, but Pearce seems not to have noticed that instead of a pasty, booze-ridden Geordie he in fact has a skilful black lad up top in Danny Welbeck and is wasting last season's break-out performer Danny Sturridge on the wing. Whilst I'm here I would like to add that Michael Mancienne looks like the single worst passer of a football I have ever seen and the fact he is captain of this side speaks volumes about the teams abilities and also Pearce's management. England do however possess real quality in the back four. Phil Jones looks like John Terry if 'JT' knew how to play football, and Kyle Walker looks like he is already better than Glen Johnson at right back. Although anyone who knows about positioning at all would be better than Glen Johnson. Chris Smalling and Ryan Bertrand also look a couple of very able players. I think Pearce will learn his lesson and start with the in-form Scott Sinclair ahead of the woeful Danny Rose and move Sturridge in-field more. This should see England psoing a far greater threat so I'll get behind them at more realistic prices than early on of 2.1 at most firms.
Dynamo Moscow v Tom Tomsk, Saturday 1330
Heading further East to the Russian Premier League and the land of the good home record. With the country being so large and therefore travelling between matches an arduous process many teams build their seasons on home form. Last season saw Spartak Nalchik make a concerted push for most of the season on the back of a superb home record and so far Anzhi are doing the same this term. The Moscow teams have always been involved in the title picture and this season looks like it will be no different with both CSKA and Loko in the Top 4 and Spartak and Dynamo in hovering just below Europa League positions. Dynamo have gone off like a train at home having played six matches and showing a record of 3 wind, 3 draws and 10 scored and 6 conceded. It's definitely the place to watch a match if you're looking for excitement. Tom Tomsk have played six away and have won1, drawn 2 and lost 3 with 7 scored and 12 conceded. This looks like it should be an entertaining contest! Currently Ladbrokes have odds of 2.04 on Over 2.5 goals and I would expect that to be between 1.85 and 1.9 when they do some research so get on now.
Amkar Perm v Anzhi, Saturday 1330
Another lunchtime kick off on Saturday from Russia sees this seasons surprise side so far Anzhi taking on mid-table Amkar. Anzhi have climbed the table due to being hard to beat and also having also not lost a match at home whilst also only conceding 1 goal at home in six matches. However comma away from home is a different story, with a much more erratic record. They have played 7, won 2, drawn 2 and lost 3, scoring 7 goals and conceding 10 in the process. Amkar have a home record of played 7, won 3, drawn 2 and lost 2 whilst scoring and conceding 6 goals. They are both built to not concede many and to try and get a goal and hold on to it where possible. My money would be on a low scoring draw in this match. Stan James are standout at 3.2 on the draw and I'll take those odds.
Quilmes v Olimpo, Saturday 1900
To South America now, and the Argentinian Clausura tournament for this bet. Velez have once again dominated this league, and were it not for the distraction of the Copa Libertadores they would probably have wrapped it up by now. The traditional big two of Boca and River have been slightly improved this season having failed to impress in recent years as bad finances and young players leaving at ever earlier ages had taken their toll. This match pits sixth placed Olimpo and lower mid table Quilmes together. Olimpo have been better away from home this season. They have managed to draw 5 from 10 at home, whereas they have won 5 from 9 away. This stunning away form has been hugely responsible for their climb up the table and it has been built on not conceding many away. Quilmes have been relatively similar both home and away, but have not scored enough to regularly win matches. Looking at their relative form sees Quilmes unbeaten in 3 and Olimpo having failed to win in 3 so I'm going to ignore the seasons form and look more short term. Back Quilmes at a best priced 2.4 at Stan James.
Ceara v Sao Paulo, Sunday 2000
Staying in South America sees me looking towards the Brazilian Serie A for some more action. They are only four games into the league, but Sao Paulo have so far won all those four matches having scored 7 and only conceded once. They are looking phenomenal so far and Lucas looks like a fine player having scored in both the opening matches. Ceara have only won once so far, in something of an upset by beating Internacional with 10 men away from home. In their other 3 matches they have lost 2 and drawn 1 having scored 4 and conceded 9. They are clearly the team to watch if you're a neutral in Brazil, but this sort of cavalier approach will surely see them picked apart by a tight Sao Paulo side. I was going to be greedy and handicap Sao Paulo, but that would be mad when match prices are appealing enough to make a tidy sum from. Back the away side at 2.35 with William Hill.
Flamengo v Botafogo, Sunday 2000
Last tip of the weekend will again come from Brazil's top division. As mentioned we are in the very early season so far, so it hard to be as certain of a team enduring class as opposed to just short-term form. What I am basically saying is...DO NOT PUT THE MORTGAGE ON. However, there is a chance to try and find some decent value as certain sides look a much better prospect long term. Flamengo are one such side. The odds seem to have taken into account last seasons poor finish, but they were very poor away and that was what cost them. Their home form was pretty decent and Botafogo were similar. Botafogo rose as high as fourth last term on the back of only losing once all season at home, but they lost 6 and drew 7 away. This term so far has seen Flamengo opening with a 4-0 win at home over Avai before drawing 2 away and getting a creditable draw at home with Corinthians. They have also scored 9 and bagged at least one in every match so far. Botafogo have won both matches at home, but have have been beaten by Palmeiras and held to a draw by Ceara away. I would be tempted to get behind Flamengo here. Betfair are still at 2.16 and I would expect that to be more like 2.05 by match time so take it now.
Iceland U21 v Denmark U21, Saturday 1945
My first tip will come from the Under 21 tournament in Denmark with a Scandinavian derby between Iceland and the hosts. Iceland have so far lived up to their pre-tournament reputation as leaky at the back, but have also unfortunately failed to spark up front. Gyllfi Sigurdsson has so far looked the only player of any class in the side, and has frankly looked a bit miffed at his team-mates lack of ability at times. Denmark started off poorly in being beaten by Switzerland. This result should be looked at in context though. The Swiss are adept at bringing through solid youth sides and regularly make the later stages in youth tournaments. It is transferring this into the senior side where they come unstuck, and mostly due to a lack of goals. The Danes looked much better in the second match in beating a very decent Belarus side 2-1 to give themselves all to play for in this last group match. Iceland can still qualify if results go their way and they score an absolute hatful. I would fully expect them to throw the kitchen sink at the Danes as they have absolutely nothing to lose and it is their strength anyway. I would also expect the Danes to score at least one as they will also be looking for a win and Iceland will no doubt be all over the show at the back. I'll be backing Over 3.0 goals at an appealing price of 2.42 at Bet365.
England U21 v Czech Republic U21, Sunday 1945
Also from the Under 21 tournament is England's final group game, and a must win if they have hopes of qualifying for the Semi Finals. The Czech's beat the Ukraine in their opening match and were then downed by the Spanish in their second game to leave them only needing a draw in this to qualify. England have so far been let down by their absolutely hopeless central midfielders as well as Stuart Pearce's frankly shite tactical acumen. Hit and hope seems to be the order of the day. This would be fine if Andy Carroll were playing, but Pearce seems not to have noticed that instead of a pasty, booze-ridden Geordie he in fact has a skilful black lad up top in Danny Welbeck and is wasting last season's break-out performer Danny Sturridge on the wing. Whilst I'm here I would like to add that Michael Mancienne looks like the single worst passer of a football I have ever seen and the fact he is captain of this side speaks volumes about the teams abilities and also Pearce's management. England do however possess real quality in the back four. Phil Jones looks like John Terry if 'JT' knew how to play football, and Kyle Walker looks like he is already better than Glen Johnson at right back. Although anyone who knows about positioning at all would be better than Glen Johnson. Chris Smalling and Ryan Bertrand also look a couple of very able players. I think Pearce will learn his lesson and start with the in-form Scott Sinclair ahead of the woeful Danny Rose and move Sturridge in-field more. This should see England psoing a far greater threat so I'll get behind them at more realistic prices than early on of 2.1 at most firms.
Dynamo Moscow v Tom Tomsk, Saturday 1330
Heading further East to the Russian Premier League and the land of the good home record. With the country being so large and therefore travelling between matches an arduous process many teams build their seasons on home form. Last season saw Spartak Nalchik make a concerted push for most of the season on the back of a superb home record and so far Anzhi are doing the same this term. The Moscow teams have always been involved in the title picture and this season looks like it will be no different with both CSKA and Loko in the Top 4 and Spartak and Dynamo in hovering just below Europa League positions. Dynamo have gone off like a train at home having played six matches and showing a record of 3 wind, 3 draws and 10 scored and 6 conceded. It's definitely the place to watch a match if you're looking for excitement. Tom Tomsk have played six away and have won1, drawn 2 and lost 3 with 7 scored and 12 conceded. This looks like it should be an entertaining contest! Currently Ladbrokes have odds of 2.04 on Over 2.5 goals and I would expect that to be between 1.85 and 1.9 when they do some research so get on now.
Amkar Perm v Anzhi, Saturday 1330
Another lunchtime kick off on Saturday from Russia sees this seasons surprise side so far Anzhi taking on mid-table Amkar. Anzhi have climbed the table due to being hard to beat and also having also not lost a match at home whilst also only conceding 1 goal at home in six matches. However comma away from home is a different story, with a much more erratic record. They have played 7, won 2, drawn 2 and lost 3, scoring 7 goals and conceding 10 in the process. Amkar have a home record of played 7, won 3, drawn 2 and lost 2 whilst scoring and conceding 6 goals. They are both built to not concede many and to try and get a goal and hold on to it where possible. My money would be on a low scoring draw in this match. Stan James are standout at 3.2 on the draw and I'll take those odds.
Quilmes v Olimpo, Saturday 1900
To South America now, and the Argentinian Clausura tournament for this bet. Velez have once again dominated this league, and were it not for the distraction of the Copa Libertadores they would probably have wrapped it up by now. The traditional big two of Boca and River have been slightly improved this season having failed to impress in recent years as bad finances and young players leaving at ever earlier ages had taken their toll. This match pits sixth placed Olimpo and lower mid table Quilmes together. Olimpo have been better away from home this season. They have managed to draw 5 from 10 at home, whereas they have won 5 from 9 away. This stunning away form has been hugely responsible for their climb up the table and it has been built on not conceding many away. Quilmes have been relatively similar both home and away, but have not scored enough to regularly win matches. Looking at their relative form sees Quilmes unbeaten in 3 and Olimpo having failed to win in 3 so I'm going to ignore the seasons form and look more short term. Back Quilmes at a best priced 2.4 at Stan James.
Ceara v Sao Paulo, Sunday 2000
Staying in South America sees me looking towards the Brazilian Serie A for some more action. They are only four games into the league, but Sao Paulo have so far won all those four matches having scored 7 and only conceded once. They are looking phenomenal so far and Lucas looks like a fine player having scored in both the opening matches. Ceara have only won once so far, in something of an upset by beating Internacional with 10 men away from home. In their other 3 matches they have lost 2 and drawn 1 having scored 4 and conceded 9. They are clearly the team to watch if you're a neutral in Brazil, but this sort of cavalier approach will surely see them picked apart by a tight Sao Paulo side. I was going to be greedy and handicap Sao Paulo, but that would be mad when match prices are appealing enough to make a tidy sum from. Back the away side at 2.35 with William Hill.
Flamengo v Botafogo, Sunday 2000
Last tip of the weekend will again come from Brazil's top division. As mentioned we are in the very early season so far, so it hard to be as certain of a team enduring class as opposed to just short-term form. What I am basically saying is...DO NOT PUT THE MORTGAGE ON. However, there is a chance to try and find some decent value as certain sides look a much better prospect long term. Flamengo are one such side. The odds seem to have taken into account last seasons poor finish, but they were very poor away and that was what cost them. Their home form was pretty decent and Botafogo were similar. Botafogo rose as high as fourth last term on the back of only losing once all season at home, but they lost 6 and drew 7 away. This term so far has seen Flamengo opening with a 4-0 win at home over Avai before drawing 2 away and getting a creditable draw at home with Corinthians. They have also scored 9 and bagged at least one in every match so far. Botafogo have won both matches at home, but have have been beaten by Palmeiras and held to a draw by Ceara away. I would be tempted to get behind Flamengo here. Betfair are still at 2.16 and I would expect that to be more like 2.05 by match time so take it now.
Thursday, 9 June 2011
Only serious punters need apply...
This weekend sees the start of the summer and a bit of a blind alley for those of you that solely bet on the Prem or English leagues in general. However comma if you're still desperate to bet and win then I'm here to offer some tips on the football that is still continuing over these warm/cold summer nights. We have leagues such as the Russian Premier league as well as a host of South American leagues going on throughout the time we have to be without the Prem action. In international terms there is also the European Under 21 Championships kicking off on Saturday and the Copa America to begin in Argentina in a few weeks time. All of this provides ample opportunity to make some money if you're willing to do some research and see what's what in thes strange foreign lands. Music comes from the ever present Millencolin and the truly thumping Man Or Mouse.
Belarus U21 v Iceland U21, Saturday 1700
The first match of the European Under 21 tournament from Denmark sees Belarus taking on Iceland. Both sides have fared pretty well in getting to the last eight as they have. Iceland in particular are of the impression that they have unearthed a 'Golden Generation' in the current side and are hoping this tournament will herald a new era in Icelandic football. Belarus themselves have taken great heart from holding a Spain U21 side to a draw recently that contained a number of players playing regularly at Primera level in Spain. I see this being a good advert for the whole tournament. Iceland scored 33 goals in qualifying to see themselves top scorers and also conceded goals at a fairly alarming rate at the other end. Belarus have been a much more tight unit, but will be under great pressure not to lose if they go behind. I think Iceland are a decent bet for the whole tournament if they commit to simply outscoring the opposition and as such I think the 2.25 available at Coral on them beating an unremarkable Belarus side seems decent value to me.
Spain U21 v England U21, Sunday 1945
For those of us who take an interest in the next generation of the world's best players, England kick off their U21 campaign on Sunday evening. The bookmakers make Spain fav's for the whole tournament and it is easy to see why that is. They have a number of players already playing in the Primera division and doing pretty well there.they also play a similar style of football to that which has seen the senior side dominate world football for the past 3 or 4 years. Similarly to the senior side though, they struggle to turn their immense possession into goals. Whilst the senior side have the likes of Villa, Torres and Llorente to call upon, the juniors have to look to the likes of Pool reserve Dani Pacheco. England also look good at this level, but lack a natural goalscorer. The much vaunted Connor Wickham is a fine talent, but is not a poacher. Also Benik Afobe of Arsenal is a fine physical player with plenty of pace, but finishing is not his strength. Both sides will see this game as a must-not-lose and this could see a stalemate. I would back under 2.0 goals at odds of 2.5 with Bet365.
Anzhi v Spartak Nalchik, Friday 1445
The first match in this weekends Russian Premier League sees last seasons surprise package Nalchik travelling to high flying Anzhi. Whilst we are only 10 matches into the season it is often fairly easy to see patterns emerging. The distances teams often have to travel in Russia means that teams can often make unlikely pushes for prominence on a very good home record. Anzhi have so far got a record of played 5, won 3 and drawn 2 at home. Nalchik were last seasons home team and their poor away form has continued so far this term with a record of played 5 drawn 2, lost 3 and won 0. I would be very happt to take BlueSq prices of 1.8 on a home win tomorrow afternoon.
Spartak Moscow v Rubin Kazan, Friday 1800
The last game tomorrow from the Russian Prem sees Spartak hosting Kazan. Most people will now be familiar with Rubin due to their Champions League campaigns and greta results against Barcelona. They are still a formidable team, but sides such as CSKA and Zenit are now reascerting their financial muscle and heading back toward the summit of the table. Spartak are a team on the up with players like the striker Ari now scoring plenty of goals. They may not have the backing of other teams, but shrewd signings like that have made them a team to watch. At home they have only lost once in 6 matches and have only conceded 2 in doing so. Rubin's recent success has been built on being extremely hard to beat at home and that has continued this season. But, away they have found results harder ot come by with 1 win from 5 and 7 conceded. I fancy this to be a tight match, but Spartak should come out on top. Back them at 2.76 on Betfair.
Estudiantes v River Plate, Sunday 2000
The Argentinian Clausura is entering a critcal period of the season and River Plate are scrapping for the points needed to help them avoid the 3 season average relegation. Most poeple who take a passing interest in South American football will know that Boca Juniors and River Plate are traditionally Argentina's big two. The problem for River is that they have failed to make any big money from recent graduates and find themselves in deep financial trouble. Because of their money worries they have sold the rights to their players to third parties at ever younger ages and therefore have gotten far less of the transfer fees when they have moved on. Estudiantes, on the other hand, have re-emerged as a powerhouse of Argentinian football. They have been challenging, and winning, the Apertura and Clausura championships over the past few seasons and representing the country well in the Copa Libertadores. Having lost some major players though they are not the team they were. I see this being a hard fought match with few goals. Back Under 2.0 goals at 2.1 with Victor Chandler.
Belarus U21 v Iceland U21, Saturday 1700
The first match of the European Under 21 tournament from Denmark sees Belarus taking on Iceland. Both sides have fared pretty well in getting to the last eight as they have. Iceland in particular are of the impression that they have unearthed a 'Golden Generation' in the current side and are hoping this tournament will herald a new era in Icelandic football. Belarus themselves have taken great heart from holding a Spain U21 side to a draw recently that contained a number of players playing regularly at Primera level in Spain. I see this being a good advert for the whole tournament. Iceland scored 33 goals in qualifying to see themselves top scorers and also conceded goals at a fairly alarming rate at the other end. Belarus have been a much more tight unit, but will be under great pressure not to lose if they go behind. I think Iceland are a decent bet for the whole tournament if they commit to simply outscoring the opposition and as such I think the 2.25 available at Coral on them beating an unremarkable Belarus side seems decent value to me.
Spain U21 v England U21, Sunday 1945
For those of us who take an interest in the next generation of the world's best players, England kick off their U21 campaign on Sunday evening. The bookmakers make Spain fav's for the whole tournament and it is easy to see why that is. They have a number of players already playing in the Primera division and doing pretty well there.they also play a similar style of football to that which has seen the senior side dominate world football for the past 3 or 4 years. Similarly to the senior side though, they struggle to turn their immense possession into goals. Whilst the senior side have the likes of Villa, Torres and Llorente to call upon, the juniors have to look to the likes of Pool reserve Dani Pacheco. England also look good at this level, but lack a natural goalscorer. The much vaunted Connor Wickham is a fine talent, but is not a poacher. Also Benik Afobe of Arsenal is a fine physical player with plenty of pace, but finishing is not his strength. Both sides will see this game as a must-not-lose and this could see a stalemate. I would back under 2.0 goals at odds of 2.5 with Bet365.
Anzhi v Spartak Nalchik, Friday 1445
The first match in this weekends Russian Premier League sees last seasons surprise package Nalchik travelling to high flying Anzhi. Whilst we are only 10 matches into the season it is often fairly easy to see patterns emerging. The distances teams often have to travel in Russia means that teams can often make unlikely pushes for prominence on a very good home record. Anzhi have so far got a record of played 5, won 3 and drawn 2 at home. Nalchik were last seasons home team and their poor away form has continued so far this term with a record of played 5 drawn 2, lost 3 and won 0. I would be very happt to take BlueSq prices of 1.8 on a home win tomorrow afternoon.
Spartak Moscow v Rubin Kazan, Friday 1800
The last game tomorrow from the Russian Prem sees Spartak hosting Kazan. Most people will now be familiar with Rubin due to their Champions League campaigns and greta results against Barcelona. They are still a formidable team, but sides such as CSKA and Zenit are now reascerting their financial muscle and heading back toward the summit of the table. Spartak are a team on the up with players like the striker Ari now scoring plenty of goals. They may not have the backing of other teams, but shrewd signings like that have made them a team to watch. At home they have only lost once in 6 matches and have only conceded 2 in doing so. Rubin's recent success has been built on being extremely hard to beat at home and that has continued this season. But, away they have found results harder ot come by with 1 win from 5 and 7 conceded. I fancy this to be a tight match, but Spartak should come out on top. Back them at 2.76 on Betfair.
Estudiantes v River Plate, Sunday 2000
The Argentinian Clausura is entering a critcal period of the season and River Plate are scrapping for the points needed to help them avoid the 3 season average relegation. Most poeple who take a passing interest in South American football will know that Boca Juniors and River Plate are traditionally Argentina's big two. The problem for River is that they have failed to make any big money from recent graduates and find themselves in deep financial trouble. Because of their money worries they have sold the rights to their players to third parties at ever younger ages and therefore have gotten far less of the transfer fees when they have moved on. Estudiantes, on the other hand, have re-emerged as a powerhouse of Argentinian football. They have been challenging, and winning, the Apertura and Clausura championships over the past few seasons and representing the country well in the Copa Libertadores. Having lost some major players though they are not the team they were. I see this being a hard fought match with few goals. Back Under 2.0 goals at 2.1 with Victor Chandler.
Friday, 3 June 2011
One last hurrah...
The title is a reference to the fact that it is the last time most European players will be in action for the summer over the next 2 weeks. This is as it's the wonderful Euro 2012 qualifiers again. Hoo-fucking-ray! I hate international football with nothing less than a passion in the main. Most players simply look like they're going through the motions, and since I'm about as un-patriotic as a man can get, I don't care about In-Ger-Land much either. These matches seem to bring out the worst in most people's opinions on football, with the national team seemingly only capable of being utterly brilliant or worse than Scotchland. Most pundits and fans seem unwilling to view England as they really are, a mid-table team in the grand scheme of things, capable of beating those better than them occasionally. I try to avoid the newspapers for at least a week afterwards as the countries 'finest minds' once again sharpen their knives for the nasty foreigner in charge, and pine for Sloppy Chops to rescue England from their misery. I for one, can not wait to see them get their wish and to see that insipid twat get his comeuppance at the second highest level. Anyhoo, I'll see if there's some matches worth betting on from those to be played over the weekend.
Austria v Germany, Friday 3rd June 1935
First up is something of a grudge match between two countries with a chequered history! Germany invaded Austria during the war and obviously this somewhat upset the Austrian's and they would love to restrict their visitors to a draw or even sneak a win. However comma I just can't see it. Germany are not exactly a secret any more after their fantastic World Cup campaign, but they are now one of the top four teams in international football. I would rank them just behind Spain and marginally ahead of Brazil and Argentina. Similarly to the Spanish they have all been playng together for a significant amount of time due to a number of the team rising through Germany's youth teams together. They also have the best player at Real Madrid in Mesut Ozil. The little German playmaker has been outstanding in his debut season in the Primera and whilst Ronaldo (the preening, cheating one) has grabbed the goals and headlines, Ozil has conducted play. He is just as good for Germany with Jogi Low wisely letting the little maestro roam as he sees fit to cause damage to anyone, as England will attest. With Mario Gomez also in excellent form up front, the Austrians will be in for a long evening. Back Germany -1.5 Asian Hcap at 1.98 with Victor Chandler, they should easily cover it.
Belgium v Turkey, Friday 3rd June 1945
Second up would be my pick of the evening for a neutral to watch. The reverse fixture ended in a thrilling 3-2 win for Turkey having been behind twice. It was end to end stuff in the second half and with both teams scrapping for 2nd place behind ze Germans they'll both be desperate for a win to boost their chances. When you look at the Belgian team, it contains an awful lot of Europe's most highly rated and promising players. You have the likes of Jan Vertonghen and Thomas Vermaelen in defence, Van Bruyn and Hazard as well as Steven Defour in midfield and the behemoth of Roman Lukaku up top. They really should be a side to watch, if only someone can get them playing as a complete team. Apparently it's due to national differences and club side cliques, but they can't seem to make it work together on even a 90 minute scale. Makes them fun to watch though! Turkey are nowhere near the individual level, but they do all get behind each other for the national side. They're terrible at the back though, as is evident every week in the SuperLig. This should have goals again, plenty of goals! I'm going balls out on this, so to speak, get on over 3.5 goals at 3.25 with William Hill.
England v Switzerland, Saturday 4th June 1645
I'll have a look at this one, but I'll probably avoid watching as I'm sure it'll go according to the recent script. This is the sort of match England love, a team worse then them individually and hopeless in front of goal. The Swiss seem to produce very capable defenders and midfielders, but can't find a striker that would give them the edge in tight contests. I am sure they'll make England earn a win, but they should hold no fears for the home side. Darren Bent will be alone up fornt I'd imagine with Wayne Rooney suspended, with support from Ashley Young in a fairly free role. This should cause trouble for the Swiss and I would fully expect Bent to once again prove his class by finding the net as he has done regularly for years now. England's strongest position is still at the back though. Joe Hart is a great GK for me, solid and reliable and not prone to the complete confidence failures of his colleagues. Rio and JT are also perfectly capable of marshalling a side like this, although are massively prone to exposure by pace by better sides. I'll be backing England To Win To Nil at odds of 2.2 with Ladbrokes looking great value.
Montenegro v Bulgaria, Saturday 3rd June 1930
This match pits one of the newer European nations against a close neighbour and former power in Montenegro against Bulgaria. The definite high point for the Bulgarians was their run in USA 94 with the magnificently haired Letchkov scoring to beat ze Germans the absolute zenith. Since then they have been a perfectly serviceable international side, but miles away from those past glories. Their best player has been Dimi Berbatov over much of the last decade, but he has followed most of Old Trafford's players in retiring from international football at around the 30 mark. This has left them without a talisman or any real skill and flair. They currently sit above Wales in England's group without a win. Montenegro showed in their match against England that they are a team to pay attention to. They have the traditional hard Eastern European backline and enough flair in attack to trouble a lot of sides. They should beat this Bulgaria team at home and I'll be backing them to do it at an appealing 1.99 on Betfair currently.
That'll do for now. I'll try to get another blog up to include the matches midweek next week too. Happy punting!
Austria v Germany, Friday 3rd June 1935
First up is something of a grudge match between two countries with a chequered history! Germany invaded Austria during the war and obviously this somewhat upset the Austrian's and they would love to restrict their visitors to a draw or even sneak a win. However comma I just can't see it. Germany are not exactly a secret any more after their fantastic World Cup campaign, but they are now one of the top four teams in international football. I would rank them just behind Spain and marginally ahead of Brazil and Argentina. Similarly to the Spanish they have all been playng together for a significant amount of time due to a number of the team rising through Germany's youth teams together. They also have the best player at Real Madrid in Mesut Ozil. The little German playmaker has been outstanding in his debut season in the Primera and whilst Ronaldo (the preening, cheating one) has grabbed the goals and headlines, Ozil has conducted play. He is just as good for Germany with Jogi Low wisely letting the little maestro roam as he sees fit to cause damage to anyone, as England will attest. With Mario Gomez also in excellent form up front, the Austrians will be in for a long evening. Back Germany -1.5 Asian Hcap at 1.98 with Victor Chandler, they should easily cover it.
Belgium v Turkey, Friday 3rd June 1945
Second up would be my pick of the evening for a neutral to watch. The reverse fixture ended in a thrilling 3-2 win for Turkey having been behind twice. It was end to end stuff in the second half and with both teams scrapping for 2nd place behind ze Germans they'll both be desperate for a win to boost their chances. When you look at the Belgian team, it contains an awful lot of Europe's most highly rated and promising players. You have the likes of Jan Vertonghen and Thomas Vermaelen in defence, Van Bruyn and Hazard as well as Steven Defour in midfield and the behemoth of Roman Lukaku up top. They really should be a side to watch, if only someone can get them playing as a complete team. Apparently it's due to national differences and club side cliques, but they can't seem to make it work together on even a 90 minute scale. Makes them fun to watch though! Turkey are nowhere near the individual level, but they do all get behind each other for the national side. They're terrible at the back though, as is evident every week in the SuperLig. This should have goals again, plenty of goals! I'm going balls out on this, so to speak, get on over 3.5 goals at 3.25 with William Hill.
England v Switzerland, Saturday 4th June 1645
I'll have a look at this one, but I'll probably avoid watching as I'm sure it'll go according to the recent script. This is the sort of match England love, a team worse then them individually and hopeless in front of goal. The Swiss seem to produce very capable defenders and midfielders, but can't find a striker that would give them the edge in tight contests. I am sure they'll make England earn a win, but they should hold no fears for the home side. Darren Bent will be alone up fornt I'd imagine with Wayne Rooney suspended, with support from Ashley Young in a fairly free role. This should cause trouble for the Swiss and I would fully expect Bent to once again prove his class by finding the net as he has done regularly for years now. England's strongest position is still at the back though. Joe Hart is a great GK for me, solid and reliable and not prone to the complete confidence failures of his colleagues. Rio and JT are also perfectly capable of marshalling a side like this, although are massively prone to exposure by pace by better sides. I'll be backing England To Win To Nil at odds of 2.2 with Ladbrokes looking great value.
Montenegro v Bulgaria, Saturday 3rd June 1930
This match pits one of the newer European nations against a close neighbour and former power in Montenegro against Bulgaria. The definite high point for the Bulgarians was their run in USA 94 with the magnificently haired Letchkov scoring to beat ze Germans the absolute zenith. Since then they have been a perfectly serviceable international side, but miles away from those past glories. Their best player has been Dimi Berbatov over much of the last decade, but he has followed most of Old Trafford's players in retiring from international football at around the 30 mark. This has left them without a talisman or any real skill and flair. They currently sit above Wales in England's group without a win. Montenegro showed in their match against England that they are a team to pay attention to. They have the traditional hard Eastern European backline and enough flair in attack to trouble a lot of sides. They should beat this Bulgaria team at home and I'll be backing them to do it at an appealing 1.99 on Betfair currently.
That'll do for now. I'll try to get another blog up to include the matches midweek next week too. Happy punting!
Saturday, 28 May 2011
It comes to this...
Well...this weekend seems to be a weekend of finals in terms of betting with the Champions League and also the play-off finals from The Championship as well as Leagues 1 and 2 in England. France is the only league in Europe that I pay any attention too that hasn't finished yet, but it's last games form there so I'll be avoiding them as nearly every position is tied up and I don't know how seriously teams will be taking their matches. The numerous end of season matches we have could well be dull affairs as there is so much riding on them that everyone is extremely careful to avoid any slip-ups that will cost their team the match. As mentioned previously, I am happy to keep the tips coming over the summer months from the leagues and tournaments that are still going on if there is a demand for it. So please leave a comment below if you're still wanting some guidance over the warmer months. Music comes from Black Rebel Motorcycle Club and the wondrous Fault Line, a cracking tune from a cracking album.
Stevenage v Torquay, League 2 Play-off Final 2011, Saturday 1500
The first match we come to this fine weekend is the League 2 play-off final with Stevenage and Torquay meeting. Stevenage under Graham Westley have become very effective, but pretty widely hated due to their managers many eccentricities. He is something of a modern day John Beck, he is more than happy to rub teams up the worng way before the match, to water the pitch, to take breaks around half an hour in to the match. He's a very intriguing character. They are a team built from the back forward, I personally remember seeing Jon Ashton at centre half against Cambridge and being hugely impressed. He's a bleeding enormous lump of a man, and he will clear the lines at every opportunity as well as posing a threat from set-pieces. Torquay beat Cambridge in the play-offs 3 years ago now in one of the most pathetic matches you're ever likely to see. Both teams froze on the day and either really deserved to go up after that performance. Torquay have a very similar goal difference to Stevenage, but they have scored and conceded more to get there. Chris Zebroski up front is their star man and is their top scorer. I see this being a tight match, mostly due to Stevenage's inherent reserved play. I think both sides will be happy to head into the break level. I would take the Half Time Draw at 2-14 with Betfair and also possibly take Stevenage to win 1-0 for a bit of extra money, best price for that is 8.0 with Totesport.
Huddersfield v P.O.S.H, League 1 Play-off Final 2011, Sunday 1500
I can barely bring myself to talk about this absolutely repulsive town and team, but for the sake of betting I'll try. Just before I do though I would advise everyone to avoid the dank, depressing, grey dump at all costs. A more horrible town you're unlikely to find. Now, back to the match. Both sides have reputations for playing attacking football under young, forward-thinking managers. Huddersfield under Lee Clark have a solid defence allied to a young, pacey attack. They have old head Zinedine Kilbane in midfield to provide calm and guidance to an otherwise youthful forward line. Jordan Rhodes has been a revelation since Roy Keane foolishly let him leave Ipswich for peanuts last year. With the future England international Benik Afobe also up front on loan from Arsenal, they have both pace and flair in abundance and have been unplayable at times this season. If they play to the best of their ability tomorrow then Huddersfield should win this comfortably. The problem will come if they let their standards slip. P.O.S.H are also a very attacking side, and if gaps appear in the Huddersfield backline they have the players to exploit them, in particular Craig Mackail-Smith. This will be likely to be his final match for P.O.S.H as both QPR and Norwich are supposedly looking to give him a go in the Prem next season. I think this will go to form if there's an early goal and we'll see end to end attacking and plenty of goals. I fancy Mackail-Smith to sign off with a goal and you can get 2.87 anytime with Stan James. I would also probably go for the Second Half to be higest scoring at 2.1 with Coral as both teams look to win.
Reading v Swansea, Championship Play-off Final 2011, Monday 1500
Another match with two sides perfectly capable of plenty of goals if the mood takes them. Swansea have been low scorers for the past few seasons, but have come alive of late with the loan signing of Fabio Borini from Chelsea. He has already agreed a move back home to Parma on the back of his excellent performances for the Jacks and this will be his last match in England. Reading have had one of the better strikers in the whole of the Championship this season in Shane Long. He's always been on the fringes of being the main man, but has come alive this season and has caught the attention of most of the Premier League outside of the Top 6. Whether Reading get there or not I would expect to see him in the top division next season. For Swansea, Ashley Williams has been a rock at the back and has picked up numerous club awards over the past few seasons and probably deserves his chance at Premier League level. There is also the fact that Swansea manager Brendan Rodgers was in charge at The Royals before Brian McDermott took over. He had not exactly set the world alight at Reading, but will probably feel he has something to prove to his old club and will be even more desperate to win this one. The bookies all have this as a tight one, but I think it could come alive if there is a goal before the hour mark. These matches are often dependent on a goal to get them going as the teams then know they have little choice but to go for a goal themselves. I fancy a goal early on so I'm happy to take on odds of 2.25 at William Hill on Over 2.5 goals. I would also get on Shane Long to add to his reputation with a goal, odds of 3.25 at Ladbrokes for him to score anytime look superb to me.
Manchester United v Barcelona, Champions League Final 2011, Saturday 1945
Da, da da. With both sides wrapping up the leagues in their respective countries with matches to spare, they have had plenty of time to prepare for this. It's a repeat of the final from 2009 and Sir Wrigley reckons he's learnt from the mistakes he made in that final. I think the biggest mistake was thinking he had a hope in hell of matching them anywhere on the pitch. Barcelona will go down in history as the most dominant team the game has ever seen. They regularly rack up possession percentages around 75% and no team can compete with that. The only way to beat them is to defend deep, let them play in front of you and hope they are short of inspiration for a change. Then hope to nick a goal when you get one of the few chances that will befall the opposition. I have seen a lot of people getting their knickers in a bunch this week over Barcelona's supposed 'constant cheating'. Now, I'm no fan of either Dani Alves or Sergio Busquets, as they're both two of the most disgusting cheats I've ever seen. The amount of rolling round, harranguing the referee and waving of imaginary cards is abhorrent. However, we are talking about Man Utd, the team that pretty much invented surrounding the referee to gain an advantage. And the disgusting antics of Alves and Biscuits are somewhat offset by the fact you are watching three of the world's best weaving patterns in play in Messi, Xavi and Iniesta. When you compare those three to Man Utd's probable midfield of Giggs, Carrick and Fletcher/Anderson, you get some ides of how much of a task Fergie faces. Giggs has done well in his more central role, but he pales in comparison to the very best there, Carrick is just about the worst big game player you'll ever see and Fletcher has barely played whilst Anderson has just gotten very fat. I think there's only one possible outcome, one-off match or not, and that's another Barcelona trophy parade. Take them at a fantastic 2.2 with William Hill to get the job done in 90 minutes. I would also be tempted to dabble at odds of 10.0 on a repeat of the 2-0 scoreline from 2009 at William Hill too.
Stevenage v Torquay, League 2 Play-off Final 2011, Saturday 1500
The first match we come to this fine weekend is the League 2 play-off final with Stevenage and Torquay meeting. Stevenage under Graham Westley have become very effective, but pretty widely hated due to their managers many eccentricities. He is something of a modern day John Beck, he is more than happy to rub teams up the worng way before the match, to water the pitch, to take breaks around half an hour in to the match. He's a very intriguing character. They are a team built from the back forward, I personally remember seeing Jon Ashton at centre half against Cambridge and being hugely impressed. He's a bleeding enormous lump of a man, and he will clear the lines at every opportunity as well as posing a threat from set-pieces. Torquay beat Cambridge in the play-offs 3 years ago now in one of the most pathetic matches you're ever likely to see. Both teams froze on the day and either really deserved to go up after that performance. Torquay have a very similar goal difference to Stevenage, but they have scored and conceded more to get there. Chris Zebroski up front is their star man and is their top scorer. I see this being a tight match, mostly due to Stevenage's inherent reserved play. I think both sides will be happy to head into the break level. I would take the Half Time Draw at 2-14 with Betfair and also possibly take Stevenage to win 1-0 for a bit of extra money, best price for that is 8.0 with Totesport.
Huddersfield v P.O.S.H, League 1 Play-off Final 2011, Sunday 1500
I can barely bring myself to talk about this absolutely repulsive town and team, but for the sake of betting I'll try. Just before I do though I would advise everyone to avoid the dank, depressing, grey dump at all costs. A more horrible town you're unlikely to find. Now, back to the match. Both sides have reputations for playing attacking football under young, forward-thinking managers. Huddersfield under Lee Clark have a solid defence allied to a young, pacey attack. They have old head Zinedine Kilbane in midfield to provide calm and guidance to an otherwise youthful forward line. Jordan Rhodes has been a revelation since Roy Keane foolishly let him leave Ipswich for peanuts last year. With the future England international Benik Afobe also up front on loan from Arsenal, they have both pace and flair in abundance and have been unplayable at times this season. If they play to the best of their ability tomorrow then Huddersfield should win this comfortably. The problem will come if they let their standards slip. P.O.S.H are also a very attacking side, and if gaps appear in the Huddersfield backline they have the players to exploit them, in particular Craig Mackail-Smith. This will be likely to be his final match for P.O.S.H as both QPR and Norwich are supposedly looking to give him a go in the Prem next season. I think this will go to form if there's an early goal and we'll see end to end attacking and plenty of goals. I fancy Mackail-Smith to sign off with a goal and you can get 2.87 anytime with Stan James. I would also probably go for the Second Half to be higest scoring at 2.1 with Coral as both teams look to win.
Reading v Swansea, Championship Play-off Final 2011, Monday 1500
Another match with two sides perfectly capable of plenty of goals if the mood takes them. Swansea have been low scorers for the past few seasons, but have come alive of late with the loan signing of Fabio Borini from Chelsea. He has already agreed a move back home to Parma on the back of his excellent performances for the Jacks and this will be his last match in England. Reading have had one of the better strikers in the whole of the Championship this season in Shane Long. He's always been on the fringes of being the main man, but has come alive this season and has caught the attention of most of the Premier League outside of the Top 6. Whether Reading get there or not I would expect to see him in the top division next season. For Swansea, Ashley Williams has been a rock at the back and has picked up numerous club awards over the past few seasons and probably deserves his chance at Premier League level. There is also the fact that Swansea manager Brendan Rodgers was in charge at The Royals before Brian McDermott took over. He had not exactly set the world alight at Reading, but will probably feel he has something to prove to his old club and will be even more desperate to win this one. The bookies all have this as a tight one, but I think it could come alive if there is a goal before the hour mark. These matches are often dependent on a goal to get them going as the teams then know they have little choice but to go for a goal themselves. I fancy a goal early on so I'm happy to take on odds of 2.25 at William Hill on Over 2.5 goals. I would also get on Shane Long to add to his reputation with a goal, odds of 3.25 at Ladbrokes for him to score anytime look superb to me.
Manchester United v Barcelona, Champions League Final 2011, Saturday 1945
Da, da da. With both sides wrapping up the leagues in their respective countries with matches to spare, they have had plenty of time to prepare for this. It's a repeat of the final from 2009 and Sir Wrigley reckons he's learnt from the mistakes he made in that final. I think the biggest mistake was thinking he had a hope in hell of matching them anywhere on the pitch. Barcelona will go down in history as the most dominant team the game has ever seen. They regularly rack up possession percentages around 75% and no team can compete with that. The only way to beat them is to defend deep, let them play in front of you and hope they are short of inspiration for a change. Then hope to nick a goal when you get one of the few chances that will befall the opposition. I have seen a lot of people getting their knickers in a bunch this week over Barcelona's supposed 'constant cheating'. Now, I'm no fan of either Dani Alves or Sergio Busquets, as they're both two of the most disgusting cheats I've ever seen. The amount of rolling round, harranguing the referee and waving of imaginary cards is abhorrent. However, we are talking about Man Utd, the team that pretty much invented surrounding the referee to gain an advantage. And the disgusting antics of Alves and Biscuits are somewhat offset by the fact you are watching three of the world's best weaving patterns in play in Messi, Xavi and Iniesta. When you compare those three to Man Utd's probable midfield of Giggs, Carrick and Fletcher/Anderson, you get some ides of how much of a task Fergie faces. Giggs has done well in his more central role, but he pales in comparison to the very best there, Carrick is just about the worst big game player you'll ever see and Fletcher has barely played whilst Anderson has just gotten very fat. I think there's only one possible outcome, one-off match or not, and that's another Barcelona trophy parade. Take them at a fantastic 2.2 with William Hill to get the job done in 90 minutes. I would also be tempted to dabble at odds of 10.0 on a repeat of the 2-0 scoreline from 2009 at William Hill too.
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