After a well earned weeks holiday I am back this week to hopefully continue my stellar run of profit in the past few posts. I would have brought some tips to you from afar last week, but with the hotel looking for about £5 for an hours internet use I decided against it I'm afraid. I'm sure you coped without me though.
Last weekends football certainly made everyone who wasn't already sit up and take notice of Man City's title challenge this year. I have been saying for weeks now that Man Utd's squad has been vastly over-rated by people who should know a whole lot better and City have made it clear to all there are some glaring weaknesses. The defence first off is looking as bad as it has for a long time now. Rio looks shot to bits and with Vidic also still recovering it leaves them short at centre half and forced to play the enduringly rubbish Jonny Evans. With Pat Evra also looking a shadow of his former self at left back it does not bode well. I wont go into central midfield as that has been covered in great deal elsewhere. City have looked irresistible at times in both matches this week. David Silva is showing that Spain currently has a monopoly on diminutive playmakers and along with Sergio Aguero they are the 2 true world class players in the Premier League. Possibly joined by Rooney when he's in a golden patch.
Music comes from Tim Barry with Thing Of The Past.
Back to the tipping now. I'm already pretty confident about a couple of these!
Norwich v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
Norwich and their manager Paul Lambert will be looking to continue their climb up the table by getting a home win against a dreadful Blackburn side. The Canaries were again very impressive against Liverpool at Anfield last weekend and were unlucky to only leave with a point in the end from what I saw. Whilst many were quick to write them off due to a complete lack of experience at Premier League level they have instead thrived. Lambert was quoted as looking for players with points to prove and noone typifies that more than strikers Steve Morison and Grant Holt. Both have spent a lot of time at either League 2 or Conference level and come to the top division later in their careers. With players like Elliot Bennet and Anthony Pilkington also hungry to prove they belong they are looking a decent side. Blackburn continue to look like a team heading towards the Championship and sadly it is entirely the fault of the owners and manager. Steve Kean is not a manager, and his recent press conferences have made him also look a bit ridiculous. It is all very well defending your players, but not completely when they've been hopeless. And the owners must share the blame for both appointing him and then continuing to let him make a mess of the club. Back Norwich at 2.05 with Boylesports.
Man City v Wolves, Saturday 1500
A repeat of the midweek Carling Cup clash in this fixture, although I would expect a few different faces. Man City changed all eleven players before running out 5-2 winners in the week and I would expect at least seven or eight regulars to return to add to Mick McCarthy's misery. City were passing and moving with fantastic ease in both wins this week and I would expect them to continue those sort of performances for a little while yet. The Carlos Tevez affair seems to have made Mancini look an even better manager and the players seem to be fully behind him. The rotation that he is afforded by such an impressive squad is also keeping the players on their toes knowing that one poor performance will give someone else a chance. Wolves started the season promisingly before fading badly in the last few weeks. They did leave a lot of regulars out in midweek also, but I struggle to see any way for them to get anything other than a humping in this one. Back Man City To Win Both Halves at 2.1 with Paddy Power.
Villarreal v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 1700
This is a must bet for me this week! I've always been a big fan of the way Villarreal have played football all the way back to Manuel Pellegrini and Juan Riquelme. They imported South American players who went on to play some fantastic stuff and give the big boys in Spain a fright on more than one occasion. However comma since the appointment of Pellegrini old assistant Juan Carlos Garrido they have been steadily declining. They have lost some brilliant players like Santi Cazorla to Malaga and Nilmar to a lengthy injury. And now to add to the list Guiseppe Rossi has been ruled out for around 6 months after tearing his ACL in the week. They have no supply to the forwards and now no forwards either. Rayo are one of the most passionate sets of fans in La Liga and always take a large away following to every match. They come into this match off the back of two impressive victories away at Betis and at home to Malaga. They look to be hitting their stride after a slow start and will fancy their chances here. Back Rayo and the Draw Double Chance at a massive 1.96 at Ladbrokes.
Sporting Gijon v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 1100
The early kick off on Sunday in La Liga has two sides coming into some form meeting at Gijon. Bilbao made the bold decision over the summer to try something completely new in terms of philosophy and appointed Marcelo Bielsa as manager. They have traditionally always produced good players, but the style of football has always been hard and almost English. They relied on an impressive home record a lot and looked for European pushes every now and again. Bielsa is not a man to hump long balls at a target man all game. He has tried to get players like Munain, Gurpegui and Javi Martinez to play their way around the pitch and it is now looking much better. They had a very good win at home to Atletico Madrid last night with a 3-0 win and Fenrnando Llorente grabbing a brace. Gijon have also seemed to turn a corner after sacking boss Preciado. They backed up a win over newly promoted Granada at home last weekend with a very good away victory over Mallorca on Wednesday night. I see this as two sides looking for another win to continue their runs and I think it could be a cracking fixture. Back over 2.5 Goals at 2.1 with Stan James.
Schalke v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
First tip from the Bundesliga is from a match between high-flying Schalke and mid-table Hoffenheim. After shooting through the lower leagues and leading the Bundesliga at Christmas in their first season Hoffenheim have settled back into an upper mid-table outfit. This season goals seem to have been hard to come by for them, especially away from home. They have only scored 13 in 10 matches, which is quite low for the Bundesliga. They also have a record of won two and lost 3 away from home, with the wins coming against newly promoted Augsburg and a struggling Mainz outfit. They have been neaten in their last two away matches by both Stuttgart and Koln without scoring in the process. Schalke currently sit in third position in the table having begun fantastically before settling into more realistic form of late. They lost their last home match in a bad tempered affair to Kaiserslautern when they really should have won, but have won the other three from their last four. I would back them to get back on track here. Back Schalke at 2.0 with William Hill.
Wolfsburg v Hertha Berlin, Saturday 1430
This match sees two sides separated by a single position meeting. Both sit in mid-table, but it is their respective home and away records that make this one appeal. Wolfsburg have won three and only lost one at home this season and have won all of the last three at home too. They haven't scored many, only five, but have ground the victories out by virtue of a tight defence that has only conceded three at home all season. Hertha have played five away from Berlin and have won one, drawn two and lost two. They have done this whilst conceding ten and scoring six. They do seem to be something of a cavalier outfit and if Wolfsburg can repel them they should be able to get the goal or two to win this match. Back Wolfsburg at 2.3 with William Hill.
Ankaragucu v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1700
First Turkish tip sees a horrendous Ankara side hosting in-form Istanbul BB on Sunday afternoon. Ankara currently sit bottom of the SuperLig with one point from eight matches. They have been wretched in every single match bar the draw and fully deserve their position in the table. They were beaten 2-0 by both newly promoted Orduspor and also ten man Manisaspor this week. Istanbul BB did relatively well last season on the back of some fine home form. They currently stand unbeaten at home from four matches this season too and are riding high in third position. They may well fade away, but currently they're going well. They have not won in their last two matches, with results of a draw and a loss, but I think they can get back on track by beating a doomed Ankara side. Back Istanbul BB at 2.3 with Stan James.
Gaziantepspor v Trabzonspor, Saturday 1700
This one is a bit more of a long shot than the rest of my bets, but one I have a decent feeling about. Gaziantepspor put together a great run last season by being tough to beat at home and also made the final of the Turkish Cup because of the same reason. This season has not started as they would have hoped, but they are now unbeaten in their last four matches including a draw with Besiktas and an amazing 4-2 win against Galatasaray away during the week. Trabzonspor are unbeaten away from home so far, but have drawn three of their four away matches. They will also be likely to have a eye on the winnable match in the Champions League in the week at home to CSKA Moscow. They rely heavily on striker Yilmaz as noone else really chips in with enough goals and I would not be hugely surprised if he was keeping his powder dry for the Russians. I would back Gaziantepspor Draw No Bet at 2.1 with Paddy Power.
Friday, 28 October 2011
Friday, 14 October 2011
The weekend starts here...
Welcome back to the world of tipping after a weeks break for me. I've never been a fan of betting on international football outside of the actual major tournaments and have not done well at it to compound my misery. I have therefore imposed a ban on myself and took a weeks sabbatical to have a break from betting and recharge for this week, hopefully we'll all see the benefits!
As I keep reminding anyone that will listen, I've been in nothing less than great form of late. I've been over 20% profit for all of the last 4 weeks and this has given me some increased spends as well as as a bit of leeway from my projected target of 10% for the whole season. This is a challenging target as most bookmakers will aim for a 6-7% profit and they have teams of people to give them the best shot, but one that I think is definitely possible. The most important thing, and a solid life lesson too, is to make sure you always learn from your mistakes/losses. I backed Arsenal on the first weekend as around 2.0 away at Newcastle would have been a great price in recent years and has since been made to look an accurate reflection. Therefore, I am now a lot less likely to back the Gunners, unless the price is way off. The other lesson is to pick your bets carefully. Don't feel like you need to stick to the English leagues, they often represent the worst chances of success. If you take the time to research other European leagues in decent depth you are probably a step ahead of many bookmakers. Anyway, sermon over for now.
Music this week comes from another recent discovery, The Copyrights with Button Smasher.
Liverpool v Man Utd, Saturday 1245
Probably the biggest match of the whole weekend is also the first up in the Premier League. Man Utd travel to Anfield to try to beat Kenny Dalglish for the first time in the league in 5 attempts under his management. Obviously this stat is largely irrelevant as 4 of those were with completely different sides, but I thought I'd throw it in there. Liverpool have started the season ok, with Luis Suarez looking a class act and Charlie Adam and Stewart Downing also looking solid acquisitions. However comma Andy Carroll looks horrendously off the pace and Jordan Henderson seems to be living up to most observers suggestion that he was a £5million at best. The problem also comes in the fact Carroll scored in last weeks Merseyside derby and will therefore expect to keep his place, possibly to the detriment of successful tactics. He and Suarez have still struck up no understanding at all and the way to dominate Man Utd is still in midfield for me. They are still weak in the centre of the park and a 5 man midfield supporting Suarez would be my choice. United have looked good in attack with Nani, Young and Rooney linking superbly at times and scoring plenty of goals. As mentioned though, the midfield is still weak and the defence has looked at sixes and sevens all too often already. Liverpool's price is tightening all the time, but they still must be backed for me. Back Liverpool Draw No Bet at 2.22 on Betfair before the price goes.
Norwich v Swansea, Saturday 1500
Two of the newly promoted sides clash at Carrow Road on Saturday and both have already impressed in patches this season. Norwich have looked a physically more impressive side with the likes of Richie De Laet and the behemoth Grant Holt in the side giving them a certain presence. They also have plenty of guile from Wes Hoolahan when he gets match time to provide an extra dimension to their play. They have been in a very good run recently that was brought to an end by a not at all shameful 0-2 reverse at Old Trafford. They more than held their own for large periods though and could have scored on a couple of occasions. And that is where the problems lie for both sides. Swansea have played some lovely stuff leading to goal, but Danny Graham (similarly Grant Holt), will never be Premier League quality strikers. It is often said the higher up the leagues you go the less chances you get to score, and these boys look like the chances are no longer enough for them. All being said I would expect Norwich to get back to winning ways in front of an always passionate home crowd. Back Norwich at 2.25 with Betfred.
Getafe v Villarreal, Saturday 1700
In recent years Villarreal have risen from mediocrity to regular Champions League participants due to a healthy cash injection and good management. They have a reputation for delivering results in style and with plenty of goals to boot, with doses of South American flair thrown in. Sadly, towards the end of last season this started to look less and less likely to continue. They have not had a playmaker now since Pellegrini departed and only Nilmar has really supplied regular touches of class. His form has nosedived in the last 3 months and it has really hurt the side. Guiseppe Rossi is a poacher primarily and with no supply he is very unlikely to create an awful lot for himself. All of this has added up to a solitary win so far in La Liga and a disturbing lack of goals. Getafe have never been accused of being entertaining apart from a brief spell under Michael Laudrup. They are a team that likes to keep it tight and hope to nick the odd goal, a bit like Bolton under Allardyce years ago. They have a tiny budget and are dwarfed in the supporter stakes by the much larger Madrid sides of Real Madrid and Atletico as well as even Rayo Vallecano. The fact they continue to compete in La Liga is testament to good management. I see this one as being a cagey affair. Back Under 2 Goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen , Saturday 1430
Now to my weekly Monchengladbach bet! They have not let me down yet this season and continue to eke out 1-0 wins with some regularity. The appointment of Lucien Favre as manager has led to a much more robust side and one that is perfectly comfortable defending a lead. They currently sit third in the Bundesliga and look good to continue the run until injuries or suspensions take a toll on a relatively small squad. They did lose their last match 1-0 away at Freiburg, but are currently unbeaten at home and have only conceded 2 goals in 4 home matches. Leverkusen have been up and down so far already. They sit in mid table at this early stage and I would still expect them to push for Europe again this year. They have managed to lose 4-1 one week and win 4-1 the next and that sums up the sort of campaign they are having. They have scored goals, but also conceded and if Monchen can get ahead I would fancy them to hold on for another tight win. Back Borussia Monchengladback at 2.75 with Coral.
Cesena v Fiorentina, Sunday 1130
If you can be bothered to get up early on a Sunday then you will these days be treated to the new early kick offs Serie A introduced last season. Sadly a lot of these matches have led to dull games that have reinforced stereotypes about Serie A that have always put off the casual football watcher. It seems that the early start has an effect on the players who often take a while to get going and can lead to casual looking lay at times. Cesena currently sit joint bottom of the table with only one draw to show for their five matches. They have only scored 2 in those games as well as conceding 7. Fiorentina sit in mid table mediocrity at this early stage as they have for much of the last 2 seasons. They still have the odd good player like Jovetic, Vargas and Montolivo, but they lack players around them to elevate them to better things. They have so far played two away matches conceding 2 whilst failing to score. This match has all the makings of a horrendous watch! Back the Draw at 2.2 at William Hill.
Lazio v Roma, Sunday 1945
The Eternal City derby takes place in the prime Sunday evening slot and should be volatile as ever. It is a designated Lazio match at the Stadio Olimpico and Roma are also missing local boy and talisman Francesco Totti according to the media and the man himself. The two sides sit level on 8 points in the table at present and have both looked good and poor in equal parts. Roma have been a lot more cavalier as was expected under new manager Luis Enrique who was brought in from Barcelona in something of an experiment to see if a more Spanish approach can be successful in Italy. So far it has had mixed results. But, it is very early stages and a lot of new players were brought in who need to acclimatise and get used to each other. Lazio kept together a very solid squad from last season and added Djibril Cisse's pace as well as Miroslav Klose's know how to their options. These two have looked like adding something extra to the side and the Brazilian Hernanes has also impressed again for them in a deep lying playmaker role. He is still somehow not making the Brazil squad so should be fully rested for this match. Roma also have an appalling recent record in derby matches to add to reasons to oppose them. Back Lazio at 2.62 with Victor Chandler.
Orduspor v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1300
Newly promoted Orduspor host last season surprise package Eskisehirspor in the early match in the Super Lig this weekend. Eskisehir started the season very well with triumph over Besiktas at home in their first match followed by thrashing Sivasspor 4-0 away in their second performance. Since then though they have drawn at home with Gencerbirligi and lost to both Galatasaray and Trabzonspor. Whilst losing to Gala and Trabzon is no great surprise it is the fact they have now failed to score in three games that worries most. It was their achilles heal last season and looks to have continued to be a problem. Orduspor sit one place above them in the table having so far been undefeated in two home matches. They seem to be built as a tight, compact side who's aim is firstly not to concede and then to try and snatch a goal. They could capitalise against a thoroughly out of form Eski here. Back Orduspor at 2.4 with Stan James.
Gencerbirligi v Antalyaspor, Sunday 1300
The first Super Lig match on Sunday has another newly promoted side as hosts, this time with Gencerbirligi entertaining Antalyaspor. Neither side has stared the season particularly well and both will probably see this as a winnable match and one to push them further away from the bottom of the table. Gencer are actually unbeaten at home and have found points much harder to come by on their travels. This is a fairly common phenomenon in my experience of Turkish football, and minor leagues in general. The travelling is normally not exactly in luxury and money dictates no long stays to get used to your surroundings at all. Antalyaspor are currently higher in the table, but have played five matches including four against some of the weakest opposition in the league, in my opinion. And they haven't done that well against them either. I think their league position is something of a misnomer and would expect Gencer to give them a much better match than they have had so far except in their loss to Besiktas. Back Gencerbirligi at 2.5 with Stan James.
As I keep reminding anyone that will listen, I've been in nothing less than great form of late. I've been over 20% profit for all of the last 4 weeks and this has given me some increased spends as well as as a bit of leeway from my projected target of 10% for the whole season. This is a challenging target as most bookmakers will aim for a 6-7% profit and they have teams of people to give them the best shot, but one that I think is definitely possible. The most important thing, and a solid life lesson too, is to make sure you always learn from your mistakes/losses. I backed Arsenal on the first weekend as around 2.0 away at Newcastle would have been a great price in recent years and has since been made to look an accurate reflection. Therefore, I am now a lot less likely to back the Gunners, unless the price is way off. The other lesson is to pick your bets carefully. Don't feel like you need to stick to the English leagues, they often represent the worst chances of success. If you take the time to research other European leagues in decent depth you are probably a step ahead of many bookmakers. Anyway, sermon over for now.
Music this week comes from another recent discovery, The Copyrights with Button Smasher.
Liverpool v Man Utd, Saturday 1245
Probably the biggest match of the whole weekend is also the first up in the Premier League. Man Utd travel to Anfield to try to beat Kenny Dalglish for the first time in the league in 5 attempts under his management. Obviously this stat is largely irrelevant as 4 of those were with completely different sides, but I thought I'd throw it in there. Liverpool have started the season ok, with Luis Suarez looking a class act and Charlie Adam and Stewart Downing also looking solid acquisitions. However comma Andy Carroll looks horrendously off the pace and Jordan Henderson seems to be living up to most observers suggestion that he was a £5million at best. The problem also comes in the fact Carroll scored in last weeks Merseyside derby and will therefore expect to keep his place, possibly to the detriment of successful tactics. He and Suarez have still struck up no understanding at all and the way to dominate Man Utd is still in midfield for me. They are still weak in the centre of the park and a 5 man midfield supporting Suarez would be my choice. United have looked good in attack with Nani, Young and Rooney linking superbly at times and scoring plenty of goals. As mentioned though, the midfield is still weak and the defence has looked at sixes and sevens all too often already. Liverpool's price is tightening all the time, but they still must be backed for me. Back Liverpool Draw No Bet at 2.22 on Betfair before the price goes.
Norwich v Swansea, Saturday 1500
Two of the newly promoted sides clash at Carrow Road on Saturday and both have already impressed in patches this season. Norwich have looked a physically more impressive side with the likes of Richie De Laet and the behemoth Grant Holt in the side giving them a certain presence. They also have plenty of guile from Wes Hoolahan when he gets match time to provide an extra dimension to their play. They have been in a very good run recently that was brought to an end by a not at all shameful 0-2 reverse at Old Trafford. They more than held their own for large periods though and could have scored on a couple of occasions. And that is where the problems lie for both sides. Swansea have played some lovely stuff leading to goal, but Danny Graham (similarly Grant Holt), will never be Premier League quality strikers. It is often said the higher up the leagues you go the less chances you get to score, and these boys look like the chances are no longer enough for them. All being said I would expect Norwich to get back to winning ways in front of an always passionate home crowd. Back Norwich at 2.25 with Betfred.
Getafe v Villarreal, Saturday 1700
In recent years Villarreal have risen from mediocrity to regular Champions League participants due to a healthy cash injection and good management. They have a reputation for delivering results in style and with plenty of goals to boot, with doses of South American flair thrown in. Sadly, towards the end of last season this started to look less and less likely to continue. They have not had a playmaker now since Pellegrini departed and only Nilmar has really supplied regular touches of class. His form has nosedived in the last 3 months and it has really hurt the side. Guiseppe Rossi is a poacher primarily and with no supply he is very unlikely to create an awful lot for himself. All of this has added up to a solitary win so far in La Liga and a disturbing lack of goals. Getafe have never been accused of being entertaining apart from a brief spell under Michael Laudrup. They are a team that likes to keep it tight and hope to nick the odd goal, a bit like Bolton under Allardyce years ago. They have a tiny budget and are dwarfed in the supporter stakes by the much larger Madrid sides of Real Madrid and Atletico as well as even Rayo Vallecano. The fact they continue to compete in La Liga is testament to good management. I see this one as being a cagey affair. Back Under 2 Goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen , Saturday 1430
Now to my weekly Monchengladbach bet! They have not let me down yet this season and continue to eke out 1-0 wins with some regularity. The appointment of Lucien Favre as manager has led to a much more robust side and one that is perfectly comfortable defending a lead. They currently sit third in the Bundesliga and look good to continue the run until injuries or suspensions take a toll on a relatively small squad. They did lose their last match 1-0 away at Freiburg, but are currently unbeaten at home and have only conceded 2 goals in 4 home matches. Leverkusen have been up and down so far already. They sit in mid table at this early stage and I would still expect them to push for Europe again this year. They have managed to lose 4-1 one week and win 4-1 the next and that sums up the sort of campaign they are having. They have scored goals, but also conceded and if Monchen can get ahead I would fancy them to hold on for another tight win. Back Borussia Monchengladback at 2.75 with Coral.
Cesena v Fiorentina, Sunday 1130
If you can be bothered to get up early on a Sunday then you will these days be treated to the new early kick offs Serie A introduced last season. Sadly a lot of these matches have led to dull games that have reinforced stereotypes about Serie A that have always put off the casual football watcher. It seems that the early start has an effect on the players who often take a while to get going and can lead to casual looking lay at times. Cesena currently sit joint bottom of the table with only one draw to show for their five matches. They have only scored 2 in those games as well as conceding 7. Fiorentina sit in mid table mediocrity at this early stage as they have for much of the last 2 seasons. They still have the odd good player like Jovetic, Vargas and Montolivo, but they lack players around them to elevate them to better things. They have so far played two away matches conceding 2 whilst failing to score. This match has all the makings of a horrendous watch! Back the Draw at 2.2 at William Hill.
Lazio v Roma, Sunday 1945
The Eternal City derby takes place in the prime Sunday evening slot and should be volatile as ever. It is a designated Lazio match at the Stadio Olimpico and Roma are also missing local boy and talisman Francesco Totti according to the media and the man himself. The two sides sit level on 8 points in the table at present and have both looked good and poor in equal parts. Roma have been a lot more cavalier as was expected under new manager Luis Enrique who was brought in from Barcelona in something of an experiment to see if a more Spanish approach can be successful in Italy. So far it has had mixed results. But, it is very early stages and a lot of new players were brought in who need to acclimatise and get used to each other. Lazio kept together a very solid squad from last season and added Djibril Cisse's pace as well as Miroslav Klose's know how to their options. These two have looked like adding something extra to the side and the Brazilian Hernanes has also impressed again for them in a deep lying playmaker role. He is still somehow not making the Brazil squad so should be fully rested for this match. Roma also have an appalling recent record in derby matches to add to reasons to oppose them. Back Lazio at 2.62 with Victor Chandler.
Orduspor v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1300
Newly promoted Orduspor host last season surprise package Eskisehirspor in the early match in the Super Lig this weekend. Eskisehir started the season very well with triumph over Besiktas at home in their first match followed by thrashing Sivasspor 4-0 away in their second performance. Since then though they have drawn at home with Gencerbirligi and lost to both Galatasaray and Trabzonspor. Whilst losing to Gala and Trabzon is no great surprise it is the fact they have now failed to score in three games that worries most. It was their achilles heal last season and looks to have continued to be a problem. Orduspor sit one place above them in the table having so far been undefeated in two home matches. They seem to be built as a tight, compact side who's aim is firstly not to concede and then to try and snatch a goal. They could capitalise against a thoroughly out of form Eski here. Back Orduspor at 2.4 with Stan James.
Gencerbirligi v Antalyaspor, Sunday 1300
The first Super Lig match on Sunday has another newly promoted side as hosts, this time with Gencerbirligi entertaining Antalyaspor. Neither side has stared the season particularly well and both will probably see this as a winnable match and one to push them further away from the bottom of the table. Gencer are actually unbeaten at home and have found points much harder to come by on their travels. This is a fairly common phenomenon in my experience of Turkish football, and minor leagues in general. The travelling is normally not exactly in luxury and money dictates no long stays to get used to your surroundings at all. Antalyaspor are currently higher in the table, but have played five matches including four against some of the weakest opposition in the league, in my opinion. And they haven't done that well against them either. I think their league position is something of a misnomer and would expect Gencer to give them a much better match than they have had so far except in their loss to Besiktas. Back Gencerbirligi at 2.5 with Stan James.
Friday, 30 September 2011
Money, money, money in a tipsters world...
As you may guess from the title, last weeks tips again showed a very healthy profit leaving myself and all those who follow with a nice bit of extra spending money last month. I will endeavour to keep the current hot streak up, especially as International football is upon us again next weekend and I am not sure I'll be doing much betting on any of that after last times shocking tips!
This week has again seen 'Champions' League and Europa League action. The only club to win in the 'Champions' League was Arsenal, and yet to read post-match articles you'd think they'd been roundly thrashed. Admittedly the defence once again looked incredibly porous in the face of any sort of opposition attack. The purchase of Per Mertesacker is already looking like the naysayers who said he was too slow and cumbersome may have had a point. Man Utd somehow managed to throw away a 2-0 lead to even be behind 2-3 at one point before drawing 3-3 with a Basle side who are unlikely to be going far in the competition. Their defence also again looked dodgy, but there has been very little mention of this in the press. Chelsea also threw away a lead late on when Salomon Kalou managed to idiotically handball and give away a late penalty for Valencia to equalise.
Music this week comes from the mellow Chuck Ragan with Gerladine, enjoy!
Blackburn v Man City, Saturday 1500
The only match I didn't mention from the 'Champions' League is Man City's trip to Munich. They lost 2-0 to a Bayern side who are in imperious form of late and there is no shame in that. However comma the shame comes from the shocking refusal of Carlos Tevez to come off the bench as a substitute when Mancini asked. I have always pitied the Argentine as he's clearly a bit thick and has his agent's voice in his ear a little too much, but this is indefensible. There can be no mistake in translation, as he has claimed, when asked to come on. You either get up or stay seated and his choosing of the latter will hopefully see his days at City numbered. Blackburn once again looked a team destined for relegation in last weeks 3-1 defeat at Newcastle. The Geordie's have started well enough, but were barely made to work for an impressive victory. Steve Kean might be a decent bloke, but he is out of his depth as a Premier League manager and will surely take them down. I am expecting a riled up City side to turn up and turn over their near neighbours. Back Man City -1.0 Asian at 2.02 with Bet365.
Tottenham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Definitely the most interesting match up for me this weekend is Arsenal's trip to White Hart Lane. As mentioned already, the defence has looked shambolic for much of the season already and if a decent but limited Olympiacos side can find holes to exploit then you would expect the likes of Luka Modric and Rafa Van Der Vaart to have a field day. Emmanuel Adebayor has also been in his usual early impressive form for Spurs and will relish the opportunity to once again attempt to score against his former employers. I wouldn't put it past him either. I saw a stat this week that of all Arsenal's goals conceded on the last 4 years, a staggering 55% have come from set pieces. This is truly where Wenger's blind spot is and the lack of physical presence stands out most. I would completely expect plenty of balls into the box for Adebayor to challenge for on Sunday. I realise Arsenal rested the likes of Ramsey and Van Persie midweek, but they can only do so much if the defence is handing out gifts. Back Tottenham at 2.2 with Totesport.
Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 1100
This weeks staggeringly early match from the Primera in Spain sees a struggling Bilbao side travelling to Sociedad. Sociedad have opened the season pretty well and currently hover around the mid-table mark, a position they'll probably spend the vast majority of the season in. They have already probably achieved one of the high points of their entire season too by coming back from 2-0 down to hold the mighty Barcelona to a 2-2 draw. They have currently played two matches at home with a win and a draw to show for it in what is usually a pretty solid home ground for them. Bilbao are still trying to get to grips with Marcelo Bielsa's new tactics and way of playing. The likes of Iker Munain should eventually flourish in a system designed to rely less on the physical side of the game the men from Bilbao have become renowned for. They are still without a win a present in the Primera though and as they generally don't travel well anyway, I think they are worth opposing in this. Back Sociedad at 2.5 with Victor Chandler.
Palermo v Siena, Sunday 1400
Palermo have been quietly impressive coping with the absence of playmaker Javier Pastore after his sale to newly rich Paris St Germain during the summer. They have never been that close to the Champions League positions since their promotion a few years ago and currently sit in 6th place, somewhere they'll be more than happy with at this stage. The only element of caution before getting stuck in is that whilst they have scored seven in their two home matches, they have also conceded five in doing so. They have won both games too. Siena have found scoring goals somewhat harder so far and only have four from four matches so far, and only one in two away matches. Both away games so far have ended in draws and I think with Palermo's ability going forward they can get a win in this. Back Palermo at 2.0 with Blue Square.
Juventus v AC Milan, Sunday 1945
Without a doubt the biggest match in Italy this weekend sees AC Milan travelling to Turin to take on Juventus. Many people had tipped AC to again win Serie A this season, but unfortunately for them they have not started too well. The criticism of them being too old has again resurfaced in recent weeks with only one win to show for their four matches so far. They have been held twice and soundly beaten 3-1 by Napoli in their other games so far. Juventus under Antonio Conte have come out of the traps at a cracking pace. They sit atop the division at this early stage with two wins and two draws from four matches. Much of this has been down to the form of the rejuvenated Milos Krasic, their flying winger. In a league like Serie A where the game is often slow and teams play deep with only the strikers upfield it is great to see a player like Krasic in form. If he continues like he is now the Old Lady may well finally have an heir to the great Pavel Nedved. Back Juventus at 2.5 with William Hill.
Hannover 96 v Werder Bremen, Sunday 1430
First match on Sunday in the Bundesliga is a top of the table clash with Werder travelling to Hannover. Werder are having something of a renaissance this season and currently lie second behind the ridiculously dominant Bayern Munich. Much of this has come from a 100% record in their four home matches so far where they have already scored eleven and conceded four. Away from home though they have one win, one draw and one loss and have only scored three whilst conceding the same number. This could well be due to a long overdue rethink of their all out attack tactics of the last few seasons. Whilst they have made their matches very interesting for the neutral it has forced their own fans to watch through their fingers at times. Hannover started last season brightly before fading somewhat as the toll of a long season told on their young side. They will only improve with experience and are also currently doing well. They too are unbeaten at home with two wins and two draws. They have scored six in those games with four in reply. I think we could be in for a high scoring match as they have conceded in each of their home matches so far and Werder will surely capitalise on that. Back Over 3 Goals Asian at 2.07 with Bet365.
Karabukspor v Orduspor, Saturday 1300
First Turkish tip comes with newly promoted Orduspor playing a Karabukspor side who lost to an improving Trabzonspor side last weekend. Orduspor have been pretty good so far in their first season back in the Super Lig for a few years, but they are yet to win away. They have one draw and a loss in their to away matches. They do keep it tight though, a real rarity in Turkish football, and there has only been four goals in total in their four matches. Karabuk have one win and one draw from their two home matches so far, including a creditable 1-1 draw with Galatasaray. They also beat Sivasspor 2-1. They are prone to concede goals, but fortunately for them Orduspor do not pose much of a threat in that regard. I think Karabukspor may well sneak this one. Back Karabukspor at 2.3 with Coral.
Eskisehirspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1300
Eskisehirspor's bright start was ended last weekend a more fluid Galatasaray side in Istanbul. They had sat on top of the Super Lig going into last weekend with a 4-0 away win over Sivasspor their most impressive result. Last season they also went very well for a long time in the league before fading late on and failing in their bid for European qualification. Most of this was built on their excellent home form and ability to grind out results. This has continued this season with one win and a draw from two home games and only two scored and one conceded. Trabzon have started slowly after pushing the outside aided Fenerbahce all the way last season. They picked up a shock 1-0 win at the San Siro against Inter Milan in the Champions League, but form at home has been less spectacular. They finally got their first win last weekend with a 3-1 victory over Karabukspor at home after drawing both away matches and losing at home in their other three matches. I think Eskisehirspor can get a good victory here if performing near their best. Back Eskisehirspor Draw No Bet at 2.38 with Coral.
This week has again seen 'Champions' League and Europa League action. The only club to win in the 'Champions' League was Arsenal, and yet to read post-match articles you'd think they'd been roundly thrashed. Admittedly the defence once again looked incredibly porous in the face of any sort of opposition attack. The purchase of Per Mertesacker is already looking like the naysayers who said he was too slow and cumbersome may have had a point. Man Utd somehow managed to throw away a 2-0 lead to even be behind 2-3 at one point before drawing 3-3 with a Basle side who are unlikely to be going far in the competition. Their defence also again looked dodgy, but there has been very little mention of this in the press. Chelsea also threw away a lead late on when Salomon Kalou managed to idiotically handball and give away a late penalty for Valencia to equalise.
Music this week comes from the mellow Chuck Ragan with Gerladine, enjoy!
Blackburn v Man City, Saturday 1500
The only match I didn't mention from the 'Champions' League is Man City's trip to Munich. They lost 2-0 to a Bayern side who are in imperious form of late and there is no shame in that. However comma the shame comes from the shocking refusal of Carlos Tevez to come off the bench as a substitute when Mancini asked. I have always pitied the Argentine as he's clearly a bit thick and has his agent's voice in his ear a little too much, but this is indefensible. There can be no mistake in translation, as he has claimed, when asked to come on. You either get up or stay seated and his choosing of the latter will hopefully see his days at City numbered. Blackburn once again looked a team destined for relegation in last weeks 3-1 defeat at Newcastle. The Geordie's have started well enough, but were barely made to work for an impressive victory. Steve Kean might be a decent bloke, but he is out of his depth as a Premier League manager and will surely take them down. I am expecting a riled up City side to turn up and turn over their near neighbours. Back Man City -1.0 Asian at 2.02 with Bet365.
Tottenham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Definitely the most interesting match up for me this weekend is Arsenal's trip to White Hart Lane. As mentioned already, the defence has looked shambolic for much of the season already and if a decent but limited Olympiacos side can find holes to exploit then you would expect the likes of Luka Modric and Rafa Van Der Vaart to have a field day. Emmanuel Adebayor has also been in his usual early impressive form for Spurs and will relish the opportunity to once again attempt to score against his former employers. I wouldn't put it past him either. I saw a stat this week that of all Arsenal's goals conceded on the last 4 years, a staggering 55% have come from set pieces. This is truly where Wenger's blind spot is and the lack of physical presence stands out most. I would completely expect plenty of balls into the box for Adebayor to challenge for on Sunday. I realise Arsenal rested the likes of Ramsey and Van Persie midweek, but they can only do so much if the defence is handing out gifts. Back Tottenham at 2.2 with Totesport.
Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 1100
This weeks staggeringly early match from the Primera in Spain sees a struggling Bilbao side travelling to Sociedad. Sociedad have opened the season pretty well and currently hover around the mid-table mark, a position they'll probably spend the vast majority of the season in. They have already probably achieved one of the high points of their entire season too by coming back from 2-0 down to hold the mighty Barcelona to a 2-2 draw. They have currently played two matches at home with a win and a draw to show for it in what is usually a pretty solid home ground for them. Bilbao are still trying to get to grips with Marcelo Bielsa's new tactics and way of playing. The likes of Iker Munain should eventually flourish in a system designed to rely less on the physical side of the game the men from Bilbao have become renowned for. They are still without a win a present in the Primera though and as they generally don't travel well anyway, I think they are worth opposing in this. Back Sociedad at 2.5 with Victor Chandler.
Palermo v Siena, Sunday 1400
Palermo have been quietly impressive coping with the absence of playmaker Javier Pastore after his sale to newly rich Paris St Germain during the summer. They have never been that close to the Champions League positions since their promotion a few years ago and currently sit in 6th place, somewhere they'll be more than happy with at this stage. The only element of caution before getting stuck in is that whilst they have scored seven in their two home matches, they have also conceded five in doing so. They have won both games too. Siena have found scoring goals somewhat harder so far and only have four from four matches so far, and only one in two away matches. Both away games so far have ended in draws and I think with Palermo's ability going forward they can get a win in this. Back Palermo at 2.0 with Blue Square.
Juventus v AC Milan, Sunday 1945
Without a doubt the biggest match in Italy this weekend sees AC Milan travelling to Turin to take on Juventus. Many people had tipped AC to again win Serie A this season, but unfortunately for them they have not started too well. The criticism of them being too old has again resurfaced in recent weeks with only one win to show for their four matches so far. They have been held twice and soundly beaten 3-1 by Napoli in their other games so far. Juventus under Antonio Conte have come out of the traps at a cracking pace. They sit atop the division at this early stage with two wins and two draws from four matches. Much of this has been down to the form of the rejuvenated Milos Krasic, their flying winger. In a league like Serie A where the game is often slow and teams play deep with only the strikers upfield it is great to see a player like Krasic in form. If he continues like he is now the Old Lady may well finally have an heir to the great Pavel Nedved. Back Juventus at 2.5 with William Hill.
Hannover 96 v Werder Bremen, Sunday 1430
First match on Sunday in the Bundesliga is a top of the table clash with Werder travelling to Hannover. Werder are having something of a renaissance this season and currently lie second behind the ridiculously dominant Bayern Munich. Much of this has come from a 100% record in their four home matches so far where they have already scored eleven and conceded four. Away from home though they have one win, one draw and one loss and have only scored three whilst conceding the same number. This could well be due to a long overdue rethink of their all out attack tactics of the last few seasons. Whilst they have made their matches very interesting for the neutral it has forced their own fans to watch through their fingers at times. Hannover started last season brightly before fading somewhat as the toll of a long season told on their young side. They will only improve with experience and are also currently doing well. They too are unbeaten at home with two wins and two draws. They have scored six in those games with four in reply. I think we could be in for a high scoring match as they have conceded in each of their home matches so far and Werder will surely capitalise on that. Back Over 3 Goals Asian at 2.07 with Bet365.
Karabukspor v Orduspor, Saturday 1300
First Turkish tip comes with newly promoted Orduspor playing a Karabukspor side who lost to an improving Trabzonspor side last weekend. Orduspor have been pretty good so far in their first season back in the Super Lig for a few years, but they are yet to win away. They have one draw and a loss in their to away matches. They do keep it tight though, a real rarity in Turkish football, and there has only been four goals in total in their four matches. Karabuk have one win and one draw from their two home matches so far, including a creditable 1-1 draw with Galatasaray. They also beat Sivasspor 2-1. They are prone to concede goals, but fortunately for them Orduspor do not pose much of a threat in that regard. I think Karabukspor may well sneak this one. Back Karabukspor at 2.3 with Coral.
Eskisehirspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1300
Eskisehirspor's bright start was ended last weekend a more fluid Galatasaray side in Istanbul. They had sat on top of the Super Lig going into last weekend with a 4-0 away win over Sivasspor their most impressive result. Last season they also went very well for a long time in the league before fading late on and failing in their bid for European qualification. Most of this was built on their excellent home form and ability to grind out results. This has continued this season with one win and a draw from two home games and only two scored and one conceded. Trabzon have started slowly after pushing the outside aided Fenerbahce all the way last season. They picked up a shock 1-0 win at the San Siro against Inter Milan in the Champions League, but form at home has been less spectacular. They finally got their first win last weekend with a 3-1 victory over Karabukspor at home after drawing both away matches and losing at home in their other three matches. I think Eskisehirspor can get a good victory here if performing near their best. Back Eskisehirspor Draw No Bet at 2.38 with Coral.
Friday, 23 September 2011
Basking in my own glory...
I must admit that after last weeks blog I was very pleased with myself. Only one losing tip and one refund and all the others winners makes it 3 weekends in a row I've been in profit from domestic league fixtures. Hopefully all of you who read have been following with your hard earned?
This week saw quite a few European leagues having a full programme of fixtures. Sadly I don't have the hours in the day to compile full blogs for these sort of weeks, but if you follow me @TopTopTips on the Twitter then you'll see I also post tips during the week on there. I will try to do some Champions League and Europa League tips in blog form in future though. I usually do quite well on them so it's only fair to share.
Music this week comes from a recently discovered band, Nothington with Not Looking Down.
Stoke v Man Utd, Saturday 1730
I have already made my feelings well known on here and Twitter about how I think the English media is getting slightly too excited about United's quick start to the season. So far they have beaten an Arsenal team in absolute disarray, a Bolton side who look like relegation candidates, a Spurs side who hadn't started the season at all and then Chelsea in a match they could as easily have lost. They look dodgy at the back when really tested to me, and whilst the centre of misfield has improved it is only an upgrade from rubbish to average. The form of Nani and Rooney is disguising what is not the best side I have ever seen by a long way. Stoke have started the season looking the most likely side to spring a surprise in the leagues upper echelons. To use all the cliches, they are hard to beat, physical and never give up. Whilst I would by no means pay to watch them every week, Tony Pulis has done an excpetional job in moulding them into a more effective side every season. This, similarly to the Benfica match, is another proper test of how good this United side is. I'm happy to be against the Reds this week at current prices. Back Stoke and the Draw Double Chance at 2.5 with Paddy Power.
QPR v Aston Villa, Sunday 1600
There are 2 ways of looking at Villa's start under Alec McCleish. You can see them as unbeaten or you can see them as only having won one match against an exceptionally poor Blackburn side. I have looked at their prices most weeks and often considered them good value, only to then see them fail to win. The problem, as with most McCleish sides, seems to be the complete lack of adventure. Darren Bent will not drop into midfield or pull to the wings and create, you supply him constant chances and he puts away a good percentage. So far this season that has not happened and Villa are struggling, and some fans are already restless. QPR have moved on considerably from an opening day defeat to Bolton and appointing Tony Fernandes as owner. The late deadline signings like Joey Barton and Shawn Wright-Phillips have proved successful and results have really turned around. There is no lack of effort and also some quality in the form of the two mentioned players. Back them to continue their good run in this one. Back QPR at 2.4 with William Hill before that price goes.
Borussia Monchengladback v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
My continuing love affair with Monchengladbach was again repaid last weekend with a tight win. They are on a great early run and are putting a string of wins together. Whether this can be maintained over the course of the season is debatable, but the Bundesliga is probably the league where this is most likely so don't be surprised by a European campaign next season. They currently sit third in the table, only two points behind mighty Bayern Munich, and have only lost once and conceded a miserly three goals in six matches. Nurnberg are by no means a poor side, they are currently mid-table at this early stage and actually have a decent away record of two wins and a loss from three matches. However comma they have found goals hard to come by with only six in six matches so far. As mentioned Monchen have a very good defence and this does not bode well for a team struggling to hit the back of the net. Back Monchengladbach at 2.1 with Victor Chandler.
Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal, Saturday 1700
Athletic Bilbao are one of a small number of clubs around Europe that have appointed a new manager and are really struggling to come to terms with the new system being introduced. For a number of years a trip to Bilbao was a real task for any side in La Primera. They were a tough, physical side with a small number of more creative players making them a decent threat most seasons and also regularly appearing in the Europa League. They have decided now that they would like to push on and have appointed legendary Argentine boss Marcelo Bielsa to oversee a change in style. Unfortunately so far the players have struggled to adapt and find themselves near the foot of the table. Villarreal started with a 5-0 defeat to Barcelona and have found it a bit tough going to get back in their groove since. Recent efforts from Guiseppe Rossi and Nilmar have seen them returning to something like their best though. They are almost certain to again make European qualification, although a rejuvenated Atletico Madrid will push them for the fourth Champions League spot. Back Villarreal Draw No Bet at a huge 2.5 with William Hill.
Levante v Espanyol, Sunday 1500
A little bit of value has gone out of this bet with Levante beating Real Madrid last week and making them slightly shorter than I would like. They are one of the more amazing stories in La Primera as they haven't spent any money on anyone except Felipe Caicedo, who they immediately sold, in over two years now, but they keep on surviving. Add to this the players often going unpaid as the club is perpetually broke and it's a wonder the motivation is there. Espanyol have started brightly at home, but away has been a different story. They have won two from two in Barcelona, but have also lost two out of two away from home. It is this that makes me think Levante in their current confident run are good things. Back Levante at 2.2 with Betfred.
Mersin Idman v Gaziantepspor, Saturday 1400
Last season I was following Gaziantep for a decent period as their home form was absolutely imperious before they faded at the tail end of the season. This season however they have got off to a terrible start and still have zero points from three matches. They have lost two at home and one away whilst conceding six and only scoring two in reply. One defeat was against a significantly reduced Fenerbahce side compared to last season and the other two matches against the distinctly average Kayserispor and Antalyaspor. Mersin Idman are one of the newly promoted sides, and they have started very well with two wins from three. The note of caution here is that their solitary defeat came at home, although it was against the now always strong Bursaspor, and they did hold out for a significant part of that match. I would back them to open their Super Lig home account with three points here. Back Mersin Idman at 2.37 with Bet365.
Genclerbirligi v Ankaragucu, Sunday 1800
Final tip of the week is again from the Turkish Super Lig. It is in fact for similar reasons to the bet above. Genclerbirligi have started the season well with a win, a draw and a loss. They have notched four goals in those three matches whilst conceding the same amount. The defeat did come in their opening match, and they also mounted a spirited comeback to bring a 3-0 half time deficit back to 3-2 at the final whistle. They also managed a very good draw midweek against the leagues current form team Eskisehirspor at Eski's home ground. A few reasons to believe they are a side to watch this season. Ankaragucu have zero points so far and have also conceded a very poor seven goals in their opening three games. One match was a 3-1 away defeat to title hopefuls Besiktas, but they have also been beaten at home by newly promoted Mersin Idman as well as getting beaten at home again midweek by a relatively poor Sivasspor side. It is not looking good even at this stage for them. Back Genclerbirligi at 2.25 with Stan James, the price will not hold.
This week saw quite a few European leagues having a full programme of fixtures. Sadly I don't have the hours in the day to compile full blogs for these sort of weeks, but if you follow me @TopTopTips on the Twitter then you'll see I also post tips during the week on there. I will try to do some Champions League and Europa League tips in blog form in future though. I usually do quite well on them so it's only fair to share.
Music this week comes from a recently discovered band, Nothington with Not Looking Down.
Stoke v Man Utd, Saturday 1730
I have already made my feelings well known on here and Twitter about how I think the English media is getting slightly too excited about United's quick start to the season. So far they have beaten an Arsenal team in absolute disarray, a Bolton side who look like relegation candidates, a Spurs side who hadn't started the season at all and then Chelsea in a match they could as easily have lost. They look dodgy at the back when really tested to me, and whilst the centre of misfield has improved it is only an upgrade from rubbish to average. The form of Nani and Rooney is disguising what is not the best side I have ever seen by a long way. Stoke have started the season looking the most likely side to spring a surprise in the leagues upper echelons. To use all the cliches, they are hard to beat, physical and never give up. Whilst I would by no means pay to watch them every week, Tony Pulis has done an excpetional job in moulding them into a more effective side every season. This, similarly to the Benfica match, is another proper test of how good this United side is. I'm happy to be against the Reds this week at current prices. Back Stoke and the Draw Double Chance at 2.5 with Paddy Power.
QPR v Aston Villa, Sunday 1600
There are 2 ways of looking at Villa's start under Alec McCleish. You can see them as unbeaten or you can see them as only having won one match against an exceptionally poor Blackburn side. I have looked at their prices most weeks and often considered them good value, only to then see them fail to win. The problem, as with most McCleish sides, seems to be the complete lack of adventure. Darren Bent will not drop into midfield or pull to the wings and create, you supply him constant chances and he puts away a good percentage. So far this season that has not happened and Villa are struggling, and some fans are already restless. QPR have moved on considerably from an opening day defeat to Bolton and appointing Tony Fernandes as owner. The late deadline signings like Joey Barton and Shawn Wright-Phillips have proved successful and results have really turned around. There is no lack of effort and also some quality in the form of the two mentioned players. Back them to continue their good run in this one. Back QPR at 2.4 with William Hill before that price goes.
Borussia Monchengladback v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
My continuing love affair with Monchengladbach was again repaid last weekend with a tight win. They are on a great early run and are putting a string of wins together. Whether this can be maintained over the course of the season is debatable, but the Bundesliga is probably the league where this is most likely so don't be surprised by a European campaign next season. They currently sit third in the table, only two points behind mighty Bayern Munich, and have only lost once and conceded a miserly three goals in six matches. Nurnberg are by no means a poor side, they are currently mid-table at this early stage and actually have a decent away record of two wins and a loss from three matches. However comma they have found goals hard to come by with only six in six matches so far. As mentioned Monchen have a very good defence and this does not bode well for a team struggling to hit the back of the net. Back Monchengladbach at 2.1 with Victor Chandler.
Athletic Bilbao v Villarreal, Saturday 1700
Athletic Bilbao are one of a small number of clubs around Europe that have appointed a new manager and are really struggling to come to terms with the new system being introduced. For a number of years a trip to Bilbao was a real task for any side in La Primera. They were a tough, physical side with a small number of more creative players making them a decent threat most seasons and also regularly appearing in the Europa League. They have decided now that they would like to push on and have appointed legendary Argentine boss Marcelo Bielsa to oversee a change in style. Unfortunately so far the players have struggled to adapt and find themselves near the foot of the table. Villarreal started with a 5-0 defeat to Barcelona and have found it a bit tough going to get back in their groove since. Recent efforts from Guiseppe Rossi and Nilmar have seen them returning to something like their best though. They are almost certain to again make European qualification, although a rejuvenated Atletico Madrid will push them for the fourth Champions League spot. Back Villarreal Draw No Bet at a huge 2.5 with William Hill.
Levante v Espanyol, Sunday 1500
A little bit of value has gone out of this bet with Levante beating Real Madrid last week and making them slightly shorter than I would like. They are one of the more amazing stories in La Primera as they haven't spent any money on anyone except Felipe Caicedo, who they immediately sold, in over two years now, but they keep on surviving. Add to this the players often going unpaid as the club is perpetually broke and it's a wonder the motivation is there. Espanyol have started brightly at home, but away has been a different story. They have won two from two in Barcelona, but have also lost two out of two away from home. It is this that makes me think Levante in their current confident run are good things. Back Levante at 2.2 with Betfred.
Mersin Idman v Gaziantepspor, Saturday 1400
Last season I was following Gaziantep for a decent period as their home form was absolutely imperious before they faded at the tail end of the season. This season however they have got off to a terrible start and still have zero points from three matches. They have lost two at home and one away whilst conceding six and only scoring two in reply. One defeat was against a significantly reduced Fenerbahce side compared to last season and the other two matches against the distinctly average Kayserispor and Antalyaspor. Mersin Idman are one of the newly promoted sides, and they have started very well with two wins from three. The note of caution here is that their solitary defeat came at home, although it was against the now always strong Bursaspor, and they did hold out for a significant part of that match. I would back them to open their Super Lig home account with three points here. Back Mersin Idman at 2.37 with Bet365.
Genclerbirligi v Ankaragucu, Sunday 1800
Final tip of the week is again from the Turkish Super Lig. It is in fact for similar reasons to the bet above. Genclerbirligi have started the season well with a win, a draw and a loss. They have notched four goals in those three matches whilst conceding the same amount. The defeat did come in their opening match, and they also mounted a spirited comeback to bring a 3-0 half time deficit back to 3-2 at the final whistle. They also managed a very good draw midweek against the leagues current form team Eskisehirspor at Eski's home ground. A few reasons to believe they are a side to watch this season. Ankaragucu have zero points so far and have also conceded a very poor seven goals in their opening three games. One match was a 3-1 away defeat to title hopefuls Besiktas, but they have also been beaten at home by newly promoted Mersin Idman as well as getting beaten at home again midweek by a relatively poor Sivasspor side. It is not looking good even at this stage for them. Back Genclerbirligi at 2.25 with Stan James, the price will not hold.
Friday, 16 September 2011
Good things come in three's...
Now if we discount my rather lacklustre attempt at tipping international matches two weeks ago, and I am keen to do just that, I am two blogs in a row in profit. I will add that I would only ever present my domestic league tips as the ones to seriously invest in as I do find international football very haphazard outside of the major tournaments themselves. So I will be looking to make it three in a row this week and hopefully make us all some extra mid-month cash.
This week saw the return of the 'Champions' League and all it's wondrousness. It also should serve as a reality check to all those saying that the Manchester clubs were ready to conquer all before them seeing as they both failed to win. I take particular issue with the assertion Man Utd are some sort of super team ready to start a new era of dominance. Put simply I think they have improved their midfield from abject to above average and by using Giggs more sparingly and without Scholes the play is bound to be quicker. They are better, but they're a little way away from Barcelona still. City look less than brilliant any time Nigel De Jong is out of the side. For all their undoubted talents there is noone who can fill the massive hole he leaves in the side when not around, the same can be said for Holland incidentally. Enough of that, let's get betting...
Music this week is an old favourite and it's Lit with Miserable.
Swansea v West Brom, Saturday 1500
Swansea will take comfort from the fact they were only beaten by a single fortunate goal by Arsenal last weekend, but it should not disguise the fact they once again looked thoroughly toothless up front. I thought they stood a chance of staying up as they do play good stuff at times and have plenty of willing in midfield, but Danny Graham looks hopelessly out of his depth at the top level. If their current form continues then they are going to be all but down by christmas. West Brom managed to wrestle a win from Norwich at Carrow Road last week in all senses of the term. Rarely will you see such a display of the dark arts of defending so often in one match, shirt pulling, barging, and a smack in the mouth for James Vaughan just some of the things that went on. Roy Hodgson is not generally associated with this side of the game, but he does set his defences up well and they should be able to cope with the blunt attack Swansea offer. With Peter Odemwingie up front too, I would fancy them to nick a goal. Back West Brom at 2.87 with Stan James.
Man Utd v Chelsea, Sunday 1600
The biggest match of the weekend sees Andres Villas Boas take his Chelsea side to Old Trafford to take on the latest 'bestest team ever' that Fergie has produced. I have already made my feelings known on that point so I wont go over that again. All being said though, they are a cut above all but neighbours City in the Premier League for me. And although they were held and generally outplayed by Benfica on Tuesday night, they rested players specifically for this match. Wayne Rooney has started the season with a smile on his face generally and with Javier Hernandez also returning I think Chelsea will be worried. Chelsea's problems are well documented and have been apparent for all to see for a couple of seasons now. Namely, they are getting very old all together and the younger players are not of sufficient quality to step up. Daniel Sturridge being the exception to that statement as he really does impress me every time I see him. With Didier Drogba still injured we will likely see the forlorn figure of Fernando Torres starting the match and still looking for his second Chelsea goal as he approaches 30 matches for the blues. He looks shot to me and a man who no longer trusts his body to do what it used to, a great shame. All this is leading to me believing United are good things at a shade below evens. Back Man Utd at 1.9 on Betfair.
Real Zaragoza v Espanyol, Sunday 1500
Off to Spain now and it's Barcelona's second side travelling to Zaragoza. A lot of people, me included, predicted a season of struggle for Espanyol and I see no reason to change that opinion. They sold there best player by a long way in Pablo Osvaldo to Roma in the summer and without his goals they should really struggle to pick up points. Zaragoza have so far only managed a measly draw from their two matches, but did face Real Madrid in the opener so that can be scrubbed off really. Spain's big two again look likely to dominate proceedings and make a mockery of any attempts to portray the league as a contest. Zaragoza looked better in their second match away to newly promoted Rayo and escaped with a scoreless drawer. I think they'll follow up that positive result by beating Espanyol. Back Zaragoza at 2.25 at Stan James.
Inter Milan v Roma, Saturday 1945
The biggest match of the weekend in Italy sees the thoroughly new look Roma under new management at all levels travelling to the San Siro to take on a faltering Inter side. New managers at both clubs will both of been hoping for quick starts, but sadly neither have gotten them. Gasperini at Inter has come in with his new 3-4-3 system and tried to shoehorn players into it een though it is completely alien and fails to make the most of talents such as Diego Forlan and Wesley Sneijder. The whole team looks disjointed, confused and generally a bit poor so far. Roma would have seen a home start against Cagliari as a very winnable match and one to build confidence from. Sadly for them they got beaten 2-1. I still think they will come good in trying to play more of a Spanish style in Italy, but understandably it may take time for all the new players to gel as a team. This game could be a dull 0-0 if both sides are happy not to get beaten again, or an absolute thriller if either decides to go guns blazing. I would back Roma and the Draw in Double Chance at 2.0 with Paddy Power and hope Inter's poor start continues.
Udinese v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
Last seasons slow starting dark horses Udinese host Fiorentina in an appetising clash on Sunday afternoon. The men from Florence are now a long way from the glory days of the nineties, but are a fairly solid upper mid-table side who are tought o beat at home. Udinese have always been a club to bring cheap players in young and then ship them out for huge profits before repeating the cycle. This summer was no different with them losing Alexis Sanchez to Barcelona. This has led to them being written off as a team in transition, but that does a great disservice to their recent history. They still have the evergreen Antonio Di Natale scoring the goals and a host of promising young players from around the globe. They opened with an impressive away win at Lecce with Di Natale already opening his account for the season. I think Udinese are great value this weekend. Back them at 2.2 with William Hill before the price goes.
Hamburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Saturday 1430
Monchengladbach are my current team to follow as they have opened their season impressively in the Bundesliga and have made me a decent little profit so far. This week they take on the one team in that league I currently wouldn't touch with free money, Hamburg. Since appointing former Chelsea Sporting Director Frank Arnesen over the summer he has taken it upon himself to purchase all the utter dross from Chelsea's youth sides under him. Players like Michael Mancienne and Jeffrey Brum have no place in a top European division and it is no surprise to me to see Hamburg already struggling horribly. They lie bottom of the table with one solitary point from five matches. I don't see their form improving any time soon as they simply don't have the players to compete. I would back Monchengladbach Draw No Bet with 2.1 widely available.
Orduspor v Manisaspor, Saturday 1800
First Turkish tip this weekend is again to be looked at as the league is only one match old so it is very early to be drawing conclusions. But, after last weeks successful laying of Besiktas paying dividends, I have somewhat grown in confidence enought o include two tips from the Super Lig. First up is newly promoted Orduspor hosting Manisaspor. Orduspor managed to limit a still very decent Fenerbahce side to only a 1-0 loss on Monday night and will have taken a lot of encouragement from that result. Manisaspor opened with a home draw against an also very good Trabzonspor side who went on to beat Inter midweek in the Champions League. More than a lot of leagues, Turkey seems to be very much a home win country. Most sides away from the big 4 or 5 tend to rely on good home form to keep them safe from harm and those that go down tend to do so because their home form has not held up. For this reason I'm going to get behind the newly promoted side. Back Orduspor at 2.4 with Stan James.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1530
I think we may well see goals, goals, goals in this match. Sivasspor follow many Turkish sides in having a truly abysmal defence and let in as many as they score during the course of a season. Eskisehirspor were actually a tight side last season, winning many matches by just the odd goal, and it pushed them towards European qualification. They have tried to improve on their meagre goals for column by drafting in Kris Boyd to see if his prolific talents from anywhere with 4 yards of goal can add another element to their game. They also heavily relied on home form last season and were relatively average away. I think this new, more cavalier approach may see them leaking a few more, especially away from home. Sivasspor are the sort of team to attack at all costs so I think getting behind overs is the way forward. Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.2 with Paddy Power.
This week saw the return of the 'Champions' League and all it's wondrousness. It also should serve as a reality check to all those saying that the Manchester clubs were ready to conquer all before them seeing as they both failed to win. I take particular issue with the assertion Man Utd are some sort of super team ready to start a new era of dominance. Put simply I think they have improved their midfield from abject to above average and by using Giggs more sparingly and without Scholes the play is bound to be quicker. They are better, but they're a little way away from Barcelona still. City look less than brilliant any time Nigel De Jong is out of the side. For all their undoubted talents there is noone who can fill the massive hole he leaves in the side when not around, the same can be said for Holland incidentally. Enough of that, let's get betting...
Music this week is an old favourite and it's Lit with Miserable.
Swansea v West Brom, Saturday 1500
Swansea will take comfort from the fact they were only beaten by a single fortunate goal by Arsenal last weekend, but it should not disguise the fact they once again looked thoroughly toothless up front. I thought they stood a chance of staying up as they do play good stuff at times and have plenty of willing in midfield, but Danny Graham looks hopelessly out of his depth at the top level. If their current form continues then they are going to be all but down by christmas. West Brom managed to wrestle a win from Norwich at Carrow Road last week in all senses of the term. Rarely will you see such a display of the dark arts of defending so often in one match, shirt pulling, barging, and a smack in the mouth for James Vaughan just some of the things that went on. Roy Hodgson is not generally associated with this side of the game, but he does set his defences up well and they should be able to cope with the blunt attack Swansea offer. With Peter Odemwingie up front too, I would fancy them to nick a goal. Back West Brom at 2.87 with Stan James.
Man Utd v Chelsea, Sunday 1600
The biggest match of the weekend sees Andres Villas Boas take his Chelsea side to Old Trafford to take on the latest 'bestest team ever' that Fergie has produced. I have already made my feelings known on that point so I wont go over that again. All being said though, they are a cut above all but neighbours City in the Premier League for me. And although they were held and generally outplayed by Benfica on Tuesday night, they rested players specifically for this match. Wayne Rooney has started the season with a smile on his face generally and with Javier Hernandez also returning I think Chelsea will be worried. Chelsea's problems are well documented and have been apparent for all to see for a couple of seasons now. Namely, they are getting very old all together and the younger players are not of sufficient quality to step up. Daniel Sturridge being the exception to that statement as he really does impress me every time I see him. With Didier Drogba still injured we will likely see the forlorn figure of Fernando Torres starting the match and still looking for his second Chelsea goal as he approaches 30 matches for the blues. He looks shot to me and a man who no longer trusts his body to do what it used to, a great shame. All this is leading to me believing United are good things at a shade below evens. Back Man Utd at 1.9 on Betfair.
Real Zaragoza v Espanyol, Sunday 1500
Off to Spain now and it's Barcelona's second side travelling to Zaragoza. A lot of people, me included, predicted a season of struggle for Espanyol and I see no reason to change that opinion. They sold there best player by a long way in Pablo Osvaldo to Roma in the summer and without his goals they should really struggle to pick up points. Zaragoza have so far only managed a measly draw from their two matches, but did face Real Madrid in the opener so that can be scrubbed off really. Spain's big two again look likely to dominate proceedings and make a mockery of any attempts to portray the league as a contest. Zaragoza looked better in their second match away to newly promoted Rayo and escaped with a scoreless drawer. I think they'll follow up that positive result by beating Espanyol. Back Zaragoza at 2.25 at Stan James.
Inter Milan v Roma, Saturday 1945
The biggest match of the weekend in Italy sees the thoroughly new look Roma under new management at all levels travelling to the San Siro to take on a faltering Inter side. New managers at both clubs will both of been hoping for quick starts, but sadly neither have gotten them. Gasperini at Inter has come in with his new 3-4-3 system and tried to shoehorn players into it een though it is completely alien and fails to make the most of talents such as Diego Forlan and Wesley Sneijder. The whole team looks disjointed, confused and generally a bit poor so far. Roma would have seen a home start against Cagliari as a very winnable match and one to build confidence from. Sadly for them they got beaten 2-1. I still think they will come good in trying to play more of a Spanish style in Italy, but understandably it may take time for all the new players to gel as a team. This game could be a dull 0-0 if both sides are happy not to get beaten again, or an absolute thriller if either decides to go guns blazing. I would back Roma and the Draw in Double Chance at 2.0 with Paddy Power and hope Inter's poor start continues.
Udinese v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
Last seasons slow starting dark horses Udinese host Fiorentina in an appetising clash on Sunday afternoon. The men from Florence are now a long way from the glory days of the nineties, but are a fairly solid upper mid-table side who are tought o beat at home. Udinese have always been a club to bring cheap players in young and then ship them out for huge profits before repeating the cycle. This summer was no different with them losing Alexis Sanchez to Barcelona. This has led to them being written off as a team in transition, but that does a great disservice to their recent history. They still have the evergreen Antonio Di Natale scoring the goals and a host of promising young players from around the globe. They opened with an impressive away win at Lecce with Di Natale already opening his account for the season. I think Udinese are great value this weekend. Back them at 2.2 with William Hill before the price goes.
Hamburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Saturday 1430
Monchengladbach are my current team to follow as they have opened their season impressively in the Bundesliga and have made me a decent little profit so far. This week they take on the one team in that league I currently wouldn't touch with free money, Hamburg. Since appointing former Chelsea Sporting Director Frank Arnesen over the summer he has taken it upon himself to purchase all the utter dross from Chelsea's youth sides under him. Players like Michael Mancienne and Jeffrey Brum have no place in a top European division and it is no surprise to me to see Hamburg already struggling horribly. They lie bottom of the table with one solitary point from five matches. I don't see their form improving any time soon as they simply don't have the players to compete. I would back Monchengladbach Draw No Bet with 2.1 widely available.
Orduspor v Manisaspor, Saturday 1800
First Turkish tip this weekend is again to be looked at as the league is only one match old so it is very early to be drawing conclusions. But, after last weeks successful laying of Besiktas paying dividends, I have somewhat grown in confidence enought o include two tips from the Super Lig. First up is newly promoted Orduspor hosting Manisaspor. Orduspor managed to limit a still very decent Fenerbahce side to only a 1-0 loss on Monday night and will have taken a lot of encouragement from that result. Manisaspor opened with a home draw against an also very good Trabzonspor side who went on to beat Inter midweek in the Champions League. More than a lot of leagues, Turkey seems to be very much a home win country. Most sides away from the big 4 or 5 tend to rely on good home form to keep them safe from harm and those that go down tend to do so because their home form has not held up. For this reason I'm going to get behind the newly promoted side. Back Orduspor at 2.4 with Stan James.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1530
I think we may well see goals, goals, goals in this match. Sivasspor follow many Turkish sides in having a truly abysmal defence and let in as many as they score during the course of a season. Eskisehirspor were actually a tight side last season, winning many matches by just the odd goal, and it pushed them towards European qualification. They have tried to improve on their meagre goals for column by drafting in Kris Boyd to see if his prolific talents from anywhere with 4 yards of goal can add another element to their game. They also heavily relied on home form last season and were relatively average away. I think this new, more cavalier approach may see them leaking a few more, especially away from home. Sivasspor are the sort of team to attack at all costs so I think getting behind overs is the way forward. Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.2 with Paddy Power.
Friday, 9 September 2011
Back to more interesting matters...
Well, thank christ that's all over. I hate international football when it isn't the tournament itself. In Europe it is particularly boring where there is such a huge chasm between some teams it is literally like men against boys at times. Why San Marino, Andorra and the like are allowed anywhere near proper football at this level is beyond me. But, as I said, thankfully the leagues all around Europe are back starting today so at least that's something.
Now normally I like to think I have a bit of an edge on the Turkish football as I spend quite a lot of time researching it and I doubt very much whether most bookmakers do. However, this weekend I may put a couple of matches up, but it is the first round of matches so it will be hard to pick with much certainty for a couple of weeks yet. This season in particular should be very interesting in the Super Lig as Fenerbahce are still coming to terms with the scandal around match fixing that engulfed them over the summer. They have mostly sold players with very little being added to the squad. Galatasasray reacted to their own poor season last time by signing all manner of players and are definitely the team to watch for me.
Musical recommendation this week is Osker with Strangled. I'm not sure if many, if any, of you actually enjoy this bit of the blog, but the album Idle Will Kill that this track comes from is fantastic.
Wolves v Tottenham, Saturday 1500
First pick this week comes from a game with two teams whose starts to the season have been very contrasting. Wolves had been something of a yo-yo club before they came up in 2009 under Mick McCarthy and Mick himself had a reputation as being a good manager, but not up to top level standards. But here we are in 2011 and Wolves are still here, and they have started the season looking very good. They will probably still find a European push too much, but they have built a decent squad and should comfortably avoid a relegation fight. The signing of Roger Johnson looks a very good one. The Birmingham defence was generally pretty sound and he was recognised as the better part of it. At Spurs Redknapp's stock continues to fall as the men for White Hart Lane look further away than ever from re-entering the Champions League. Nowhere is this more profoundly seen than with Man City viewing them as so little competition as to loan them Emanuel Adebayor. I'm sure Harry would cry his little eyes out at his 'tiny' squad and few additions, but if you examine his transfers into the club far too many have already been shipped out at a loss. At this stage of the season I think you've got to take them on. Back Wolves at a huge 3.12 with Victor Chandler.
Fulham v Blackburn, Sunday 1600
The afternoon match on Sunday brings my second tip for this weekend. Blackburn are making the trip down to Craven Cottage still looking for a point. They have looked truly hopeless so far and I am looking at the 4.5 I took on them being relegated as being nailed on already. Deadline day saw them finally sign some players, but whether they will be anything like enough to stop the rot is very dubious. The standout names are Scott Dann and Yakubu. Dann was injured for a lot of last season and centre half was not really where the problems lay so whilst I think he's a good player, I don't see that saving them at all. The Yak is an interesting one, he was a cracking player whilst at Portsmouth, but has struggled with 'fitness' issues for most of his time at Everton. He still looks a very large boy and it could take some time for him to bed in, if he does at all. Fulham have only got a solitary point so far as Martin Jol tries to shape the side how he would like. They have lost both away games, but for Fulham that isn't exactly a new story. As ever their problem has layed in scoring goals, with Clint Dempsey stepping up to be the new Tim Cahill and bringing most of their threat from midfield. The addition of Bryan Ruiz from Twente should add the creativity they have badly missed in the last couple of seasons as Danny Murphy's influence wanes. Back Fulham -1.0 asian at 2.25 with Paddy Power.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Kaiserslautern, Saturday 1430
I will avoid Italy's Serie A this weekend as it is the first matches and I'm keen to see how Napoli and Roma start before indulging over there. I'd also like to give Spain a couple more matches before I give any pointers over there. It is very hard to judge someone like Villarreal when they've been turned over by Barcelona as there is only one other team in that league of their quality. Germany is a much more level playing field, and is a big reason behind the growing popularity of the Bundesliga all over Europe. There tend to be goals in most matches and huge noisy crowds. This all adds up to a brilliant product to those who actually like watching the sport itself and the rest of Europe would do well to take a leaf out of ze Germans book. Four games in and we see Monchengladbach have started well with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. They have not lost at home and have scored 5 whilst conceding only 2 at home. Kaiserslautern have started poorly, as tipped by many with a close eye on the Bundesliga, and are yet to win. Looking at this there is only one team to back here. Back Monchengladback at 1.95 with Victor Chandler.
Wolfsburg v Schalke 04, Sunday 1630
The last match of the weekend in Germany sees Felix Magath taking his new side Wolfsburg to his old side Schalke. It's hard not to criticise Magath's management of both sides when you see Schalke flourishing at this early stage and Wolfsburg plunged into despair and with players and fans very unhappy already. Magath is something of a disciplinarian and whilst he has had success in the past, it is beginning to look like his methods have ceased to be effective. Wolfsburg have opened up with 1 win and 3 losses and Magath is already under pressure, pressure he has turned onto his players and seemingly made the problem worse. Schalke have started with 3 wins and 1 loss, they have won both at home and scored 6 whilst only conceding 1 in those two matches. Klaas Jan Huntelaar is finally beginning to find the form that made him such hot property in Holland a few years back and they look set to contend for a Champions League place at the least. I think you have to back Schalke at 2.87, again with Victor Chandler.
AJ Ajaccio v Valenciennes, Saturday 1800
At this early stage of the season in the terminally dull Ligue Un both of these sides look set to struggle. Both are without a win and are looking very poor. In a league renowned for it's lack of goals for newly promoted Ajaccio to have conceded 8 already in only four matches does not bode at all well for their season. Valenciennes have only scored 2 in four matches and currently sit bottom of the table. They have been on the slide for a couple of seasons as far as I am aware and will be unlikely to turn the season around enough to not be involved in the relegation battle. Looking purely at the stats you would have to imagine Valenciennes will get a couple of opportunities judging by Ajaccio's goal difference, but goals have been hard to come by for them. I think this will probably turn out a bore draw. Back the draw at 3.0 with that price widely available.
Montpellier v Nice, Sunday 1600
After four matches in France Montpellier sit proudly atop the league with 3 wins and a loss. They have won both matches at home and were only beaten by an injury time goal in their last match to destroy their unbeaten start. They have also scored 7 goals in their 2 home matches and conceded just 1. Nice have not started quite so well. They are still yet to win and have drawn 3 from 4 and also lost 1. The side was somewhat covered by Loic Remy's goals for a couple of seasons and in his absence they look very short of quality. I would be very surprised if Montpellier continued their form all the way through the season, but right now they are very impressive and Nice will not be looking forward to this match in their current malaise. I am confident Montpellier can get a comfortable win. Back Montpellier -1.0 asian at 2.35 with Bet365.
Eskisehirspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1530
The Turkish Super Lig restarts this weekend and there are a couple of players that should be pretty familiar to some in this country over there now. Eskisehir have signed ex-Rangers goal hanger extraordinaire Kris Boyd after his complete failure to do anything of note in the Championship. He ought to enjoy it more in Turkey though as generally the defending is pretty laissez faire and he will get opportunities. As mentioned there is no form at all at present so it is a mix of last seasons form and gut instinct on these tips. Besiktas did fine last season without setting the world alight like they wanted to after fairly major investment. Eskisehir were solid at home, but lacked goals to turn games, presumably where Boyd comes in. I think at this early stage Besiktas are worth opposing. Back Eskisehirspor Draw No Bet at 2.9 with Coral.
Now normally I like to think I have a bit of an edge on the Turkish football as I spend quite a lot of time researching it and I doubt very much whether most bookmakers do. However, this weekend I may put a couple of matches up, but it is the first round of matches so it will be hard to pick with much certainty for a couple of weeks yet. This season in particular should be very interesting in the Super Lig as Fenerbahce are still coming to terms with the scandal around match fixing that engulfed them over the summer. They have mostly sold players with very little being added to the squad. Galatasasray reacted to their own poor season last time by signing all manner of players and are definitely the team to watch for me.
Musical recommendation this week is Osker with Strangled. I'm not sure if many, if any, of you actually enjoy this bit of the blog, but the album Idle Will Kill that this track comes from is fantastic.
Wolves v Tottenham, Saturday 1500
First pick this week comes from a game with two teams whose starts to the season have been very contrasting. Wolves had been something of a yo-yo club before they came up in 2009 under Mick McCarthy and Mick himself had a reputation as being a good manager, but not up to top level standards. But here we are in 2011 and Wolves are still here, and they have started the season looking very good. They will probably still find a European push too much, but they have built a decent squad and should comfortably avoid a relegation fight. The signing of Roger Johnson looks a very good one. The Birmingham defence was generally pretty sound and he was recognised as the better part of it. At Spurs Redknapp's stock continues to fall as the men for White Hart Lane look further away than ever from re-entering the Champions League. Nowhere is this more profoundly seen than with Man City viewing them as so little competition as to loan them Emanuel Adebayor. I'm sure Harry would cry his little eyes out at his 'tiny' squad and few additions, but if you examine his transfers into the club far too many have already been shipped out at a loss. At this stage of the season I think you've got to take them on. Back Wolves at a huge 3.12 with Victor Chandler.
Fulham v Blackburn, Sunday 1600
The afternoon match on Sunday brings my second tip for this weekend. Blackburn are making the trip down to Craven Cottage still looking for a point. They have looked truly hopeless so far and I am looking at the 4.5 I took on them being relegated as being nailed on already. Deadline day saw them finally sign some players, but whether they will be anything like enough to stop the rot is very dubious. The standout names are Scott Dann and Yakubu. Dann was injured for a lot of last season and centre half was not really where the problems lay so whilst I think he's a good player, I don't see that saving them at all. The Yak is an interesting one, he was a cracking player whilst at Portsmouth, but has struggled with 'fitness' issues for most of his time at Everton. He still looks a very large boy and it could take some time for him to bed in, if he does at all. Fulham have only got a solitary point so far as Martin Jol tries to shape the side how he would like. They have lost both away games, but for Fulham that isn't exactly a new story. As ever their problem has layed in scoring goals, with Clint Dempsey stepping up to be the new Tim Cahill and bringing most of their threat from midfield. The addition of Bryan Ruiz from Twente should add the creativity they have badly missed in the last couple of seasons as Danny Murphy's influence wanes. Back Fulham -1.0 asian at 2.25 with Paddy Power.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Kaiserslautern, Saturday 1430
I will avoid Italy's Serie A this weekend as it is the first matches and I'm keen to see how Napoli and Roma start before indulging over there. I'd also like to give Spain a couple more matches before I give any pointers over there. It is very hard to judge someone like Villarreal when they've been turned over by Barcelona as there is only one other team in that league of their quality. Germany is a much more level playing field, and is a big reason behind the growing popularity of the Bundesliga all over Europe. There tend to be goals in most matches and huge noisy crowds. This all adds up to a brilliant product to those who actually like watching the sport itself and the rest of Europe would do well to take a leaf out of ze Germans book. Four games in and we see Monchengladbach have started well with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. They have not lost at home and have scored 5 whilst conceding only 2 at home. Kaiserslautern have started poorly, as tipped by many with a close eye on the Bundesliga, and are yet to win. Looking at this there is only one team to back here. Back Monchengladback at 1.95 with Victor Chandler.
Wolfsburg v Schalke 04, Sunday 1630
The last match of the weekend in Germany sees Felix Magath taking his new side Wolfsburg to his old side Schalke. It's hard not to criticise Magath's management of both sides when you see Schalke flourishing at this early stage and Wolfsburg plunged into despair and with players and fans very unhappy already. Magath is something of a disciplinarian and whilst he has had success in the past, it is beginning to look like his methods have ceased to be effective. Wolfsburg have opened up with 1 win and 3 losses and Magath is already under pressure, pressure he has turned onto his players and seemingly made the problem worse. Schalke have started with 3 wins and 1 loss, they have won both at home and scored 6 whilst only conceding 1 in those two matches. Klaas Jan Huntelaar is finally beginning to find the form that made him such hot property in Holland a few years back and they look set to contend for a Champions League place at the least. I think you have to back Schalke at 2.87, again with Victor Chandler.
AJ Ajaccio v Valenciennes, Saturday 1800
At this early stage of the season in the terminally dull Ligue Un both of these sides look set to struggle. Both are without a win and are looking very poor. In a league renowned for it's lack of goals for newly promoted Ajaccio to have conceded 8 already in only four matches does not bode at all well for their season. Valenciennes have only scored 2 in four matches and currently sit bottom of the table. They have been on the slide for a couple of seasons as far as I am aware and will be unlikely to turn the season around enough to not be involved in the relegation battle. Looking purely at the stats you would have to imagine Valenciennes will get a couple of opportunities judging by Ajaccio's goal difference, but goals have been hard to come by for them. I think this will probably turn out a bore draw. Back the draw at 3.0 with that price widely available.
Montpellier v Nice, Sunday 1600
After four matches in France Montpellier sit proudly atop the league with 3 wins and a loss. They have won both matches at home and were only beaten by an injury time goal in their last match to destroy their unbeaten start. They have also scored 7 goals in their 2 home matches and conceded just 1. Nice have not started quite so well. They are still yet to win and have drawn 3 from 4 and also lost 1. The side was somewhat covered by Loic Remy's goals for a couple of seasons and in his absence they look very short of quality. I would be very surprised if Montpellier continued their form all the way through the season, but right now they are very impressive and Nice will not be looking forward to this match in their current malaise. I am confident Montpellier can get a comfortable win. Back Montpellier -1.0 asian at 2.35 with Bet365.
Eskisehirspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1530
The Turkish Super Lig restarts this weekend and there are a couple of players that should be pretty familiar to some in this country over there now. Eskisehir have signed ex-Rangers goal hanger extraordinaire Kris Boyd after his complete failure to do anything of note in the Championship. He ought to enjoy it more in Turkey though as generally the defending is pretty laissez faire and he will get opportunities. As mentioned there is no form at all at present so it is a mix of last seasons form and gut instinct on these tips. Besiktas did fine last season without setting the world alight like they wanted to after fairly major investment. Eskisehir were solid at home, but lacked goals to turn games, presumably where Boyd comes in. I think at this early stage Besiktas are worth opposing. Back Eskisehirspor Draw No Bet at 2.9 with Coral.
Thursday, 1 September 2011
Just when I was getting good at this...
Last weekends tips saw me with the best strike rate I have had in a few weeks. As I have been banging on about for a couple of weeks I would like to think it is down to being better informed on how teams are playing and so on. Saying that I honestly thought Man Utd looked a little skinny at 1.5 against Arsenal, shows even I'm not perfect I guess.
Having gotten back into something of a groove we now see international football marching over the horizon to ruin all that. I know some people who swear by international betting, mainly due to the amount of no-hopers you can get against on handicaps. I tend to try and find a bit better odds than that though and this makes it more difficult. Teams can have breaks of 2 months between games and training together and this obviously has an effect on performance that is hard to quantify when looking for bets. However comma I will endeavour to find some value out there, although there may not be as many bets as sometimes.
Israel v Greece, Friday 1405
First match of the days Euro 2012 qualifying is also something I think is well worth a punt on. Israel is always a tough place to visit, be it as an international or club side. It's a good trek out of mainland Europe and also is quite an intimidating place to be playing football. This has led to many good sides struggling to come away from the country with full points. Greece have not exactly become more expansive since their thrilling Euro's win. They are built to not concede goals firstly and to try and impose themselves physically to sneak wins. They currently sit atop their group with 14 points ahead of both Israel and Croatia on 13 points each. Israel should see this as a chance to steal a march on their rivals, and I'll be backing them to do it. Back Israel at 2.3 at William Hill before the price goes.
Belarus v Bosnia, Friday 1830
Another side with a good home record are Belarus, so good they almost beat France at home in these very qualifiers. They have a number of players in the ever-improving Russian Premier League as well as a scattering in Germany and France. And also the wondrous dribbling non scorer Alex Hleb. They are technically pretty gifted in attacking positions, but typically Eastern European in their hard as nails approach at the back. They have so far played 4 matches at home in these qualifiers and both won and drawn 2 with no losses. Bosnia are very similar in set up essentially. They too have some very good attacking players, including the reborn Edin Dzeko, and some very tough defenders. It looks a very tough game to call, so tough I think I'll be hedging my bets. Back the Draw at a standout 3.4 with Stan James.
Northern Ireland v Serbia, Friday 1945
This is not a match I would particularly recommend watching. Northern Ireland have become something of the masters of reducing a game to nothing and trying to snatch goals from set pieces. And all power to them. They're a very small country in the grand scheme of things and this approach has stopped many predicted losses that the likes of Scotland and Wales would no doubt envy. So far they are unbeaten at home and are yet to concede a goal. This alone makes the fact the bookies have Serbia as favourites looking very odd. They definitely are a very good team, but are currently sitting behind Ireland in 3rd in their group. They're yet to really show what they're made of for whatever reason. With the likes of Nemandja Vidic in the side they should always have a chance, but the stats are against them here. I'm going to give myself a little bet of a hand by giving Northern Ireland a slight handicap too. Back Northern Ireland +0.25 asian at 2.02 at Bet365.
Albania v France, Friday 2000
Last bet for tomorrow and it is something of a long shot, albeit backed by goings on so far. Albania are currently second bottom to Luxembourg in the group, but crucially are unbeaten on their own turf. They have beaten Belarus in their last match and also drawn with a very decent Bosnia side. I can't tell you much about the individual players as I really haven't a clue, but they obviously put on a good show in front of their own fans. France have recovered from their horrendous World Cup by looking like being one of the major European forces once again. Under Laurent Blanc many new faces have been given a look in and this has played a part in freshening up the squad as well as giving more energy. I think they may well win, but I don't think they'll have it all their own way, especially with the players not fully into the league seasons yet. I would back Under 2.0 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Having gotten back into something of a groove we now see international football marching over the horizon to ruin all that. I know some people who swear by international betting, mainly due to the amount of no-hopers you can get against on handicaps. I tend to try and find a bit better odds than that though and this makes it more difficult. Teams can have breaks of 2 months between games and training together and this obviously has an effect on performance that is hard to quantify when looking for bets. However comma I will endeavour to find some value out there, although there may not be as many bets as sometimes.
Israel v Greece, Friday 1405
First match of the days Euro 2012 qualifying is also something I think is well worth a punt on. Israel is always a tough place to visit, be it as an international or club side. It's a good trek out of mainland Europe and also is quite an intimidating place to be playing football. This has led to many good sides struggling to come away from the country with full points. Greece have not exactly become more expansive since their thrilling Euro's win. They are built to not concede goals firstly and to try and impose themselves physically to sneak wins. They currently sit atop their group with 14 points ahead of both Israel and Croatia on 13 points each. Israel should see this as a chance to steal a march on their rivals, and I'll be backing them to do it. Back Israel at 2.3 at William Hill before the price goes.
Belarus v Bosnia, Friday 1830
Another side with a good home record are Belarus, so good they almost beat France at home in these very qualifiers. They have a number of players in the ever-improving Russian Premier League as well as a scattering in Germany and France. And also the wondrous dribbling non scorer Alex Hleb. They are technically pretty gifted in attacking positions, but typically Eastern European in their hard as nails approach at the back. They have so far played 4 matches at home in these qualifiers and both won and drawn 2 with no losses. Bosnia are very similar in set up essentially. They too have some very good attacking players, including the reborn Edin Dzeko, and some very tough defenders. It looks a very tough game to call, so tough I think I'll be hedging my bets. Back the Draw at a standout 3.4 with Stan James.
Northern Ireland v Serbia, Friday 1945
This is not a match I would particularly recommend watching. Northern Ireland have become something of the masters of reducing a game to nothing and trying to snatch goals from set pieces. And all power to them. They're a very small country in the grand scheme of things and this approach has stopped many predicted losses that the likes of Scotland and Wales would no doubt envy. So far they are unbeaten at home and are yet to concede a goal. This alone makes the fact the bookies have Serbia as favourites looking very odd. They definitely are a very good team, but are currently sitting behind Ireland in 3rd in their group. They're yet to really show what they're made of for whatever reason. With the likes of Nemandja Vidic in the side they should always have a chance, but the stats are against them here. I'm going to give myself a little bet of a hand by giving Northern Ireland a slight handicap too. Back Northern Ireland +0.25 asian at 2.02 at Bet365.
Albania v France, Friday 2000
Last bet for tomorrow and it is something of a long shot, albeit backed by goings on so far. Albania are currently second bottom to Luxembourg in the group, but crucially are unbeaten on their own turf. They have beaten Belarus in their last match and also drawn with a very decent Bosnia side. I can't tell you much about the individual players as I really haven't a clue, but they obviously put on a good show in front of their own fans. France have recovered from their horrendous World Cup by looking like being one of the major European forces once again. Under Laurent Blanc many new faces have been given a look in and this has played a part in freshening up the squad as well as giving more energy. I think they may well win, but I don't think they'll have it all their own way, especially with the players not fully into the league seasons yet. I would back Under 2.0 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
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