My sincerest apologies for the non-appearance of my column last week, due to a computer crash it was lost at 90% completion and I did not have the time available to redo it. I did put all my tips out on Twitter for those following @TopTopTips, and it was another profitable weekend so it's well worth getting on there.
Week 22
Swansea v Stoke - Win 2.2 points.
West Ham v QPR - Win 1.92 points.
Granada v Rayo Vallecano - Lose 2 points.
Roma v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Schalke v Hannover - Lose 1.5 points.
Besiktas v Istanbul BB - Win 2.1 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor - Win 1.67 points.
Totals - Win 2.39 points.
Week 23 (Twitter only)
Reading v Sheff Utd - Win 1.4 points.
Hannover v Wolfsburg - Win 2.6 points.
Hamburg v Werder Bremen - Win 2.7 points.
Catania v Fiorentina - Win 1.6 points.
Gaziantepspor v Fenerbahce - Lose 2 points.
Galatasaray v Besiktas - Win 1.8 points.
Totals - Win 8.1 points.
Running Total - Up 38.14 points.
Music this week from Austin Lucas with Shoulders, bit of folky stuff of an afternoon!
Newcastle v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
As the transfer windows end approaches by far the busiest club have been Alan Pardew's Newcastle United. The Magpies have been poor for most of the first half of the season with various possible reasons combining to see them drop well off last seasons fifth place finish. My reading of the situation is that they managed to keep a settled first eleven playing nearly every week and managed to get every player to put in a bit more than there average efforts and credit should go to Pardew for that. However comma this time out injuries have robbed them of nigh on every player at one point or another and they have looked miles worse a team without everyone fit. The buck must stop with the manager for this really as there are enough players there to do better than they have. It looks like the board still retained faith in Pardew and his chief scout Graham Carr though, as they have once again raided France to give a crucial injection of bodies, and hopefully quality. I think they have bought exceptionally well. For around £15million all in they have got five very good players. Both Moussa Sissoko and Yoann Goufran have been linked with big money moves and have been in the national side and are still under twenty six. Sissoko in particular always looked an excellent player to me and excelled on his debut against Aston Villa. It looks to me like they have more than enough to pull well clear of the bottom.
Chelsea's season is in danger of being all over soon. They have been knocked out of the League Cup, held to a draw by Brentford in the FA Cup and also failed to beat Southampton and Reading in the Premier League lately. There now looks to be absolutely no chance of Rafa Benitez staying on as manager beyond the seasons end and rightly so. There are huge issues to solve at the club and he doesn't seem to be getting anywhere at all. That he is still persisting with Fernando Torres up front when he has Demba Ba itching to get on the pitch is baffling. The defence seems to give up at points in matches and the midfield offers them little help or protection either, a tactical slight on the usually defensive minded Benitez. With Newcastle's buoyed state I'd not fancy Chelsea here at odds on.
Lay Chelsea at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
Wigan v Southampton, Saturday 1500
Those of you who have been readers of the column for a while will know I avoid Wigan the majority of the time when betting. It doesn't matter how badly they seem to be playing, they always seem to get a result that robs me of my hard earned cash! Every so often though the odds seem so far out they have to be played. This appears to be one of those occasions. When you look at the stats it seems to show Wigan are 'playing the right way', coming out on top of possession amongst other things in most matches. But, they are near to the bottom of the table again as they just don't win matches. A huge part of this is that they don't score enough goals. They currently have twenty seven in twenty four matches, which is not many by the divisions standard. They're a poor side in my opinion and do not justify the odds this week at all.
Southampton started the season like a side that looked doomed to return to The Championship after a solitary season. They have since turned things round to the extent I don't think they'll have any trouble steering clear of trouble come seasons end. The sacking of manager Nigel Adkins seemed harsh, but for all the media coverage of his poor end to his Espanyol managerial post, he was fighting against a host of problems, not least their massive debts. In his first two games it has appeared apparent the players are happy to put in the required effort for his pressing tactics, which I read as a sign they're not too upset at his appointment at all. I think they're a good side with weaknesses in defence. Against a poor attacking side like Wigan they should cope.
Lay Wigan at 2.24 on Betfair. 2 points.
Osasuna v Celta Vigo, Saturday 1500
There does not appear to be much value in Spain this weekend sadly. This looks the best bet to me, although I'm not sure there's much in the price either. It's more a case of looking at respective form of the two sides and betting accordingly. Osasuna are a physical side who have traditionally been excellent at home. They started this season really badly, but have since improved a lot to climb off the bottom of the table since December. This good run has even included a win against Real Madrid at home. As poor as Real have been away, that's no poor effort.
Celta Vigo have the worst away points total in La Liga with just four points. They have one win and one draw along with nine defeats, a terrible record. Were this last season Osasuna would be odds on and they look like they're certainly getting back to that form at home so I want to be on their side.
Back Osasuna at 2.1 with William Hill. 2 points.
Nurnberg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430
Nurnberg are not having much of a time of it in the Bundesliga this season and sit just above the relegation places at present. In the highest scoring of the major European leagues their goals for column showing just eighteen from nineteen matches stands out as the biggest problem they are facing. They actually don't let that many in either, but this is translating into loads of draws which are not getting them enough points to pull anywhere clear of the relegation zone. At home this season their record reads won three, drawn four and lost two. They are not easy to beat, but they are not hard to contain either.
Monchengladbach were a favourite side of mine last season when their mean defence and attack (read Marco Reus mostly!) guided them into Europa League qualification. They sold Reus over the summer to Borussia Dortmund where he has shown how good he is again and they have had to adjust tactically to compensate. This has meant a move to get goals from more sources and utilise a more attacking formation. The flipside of this is that they are also more open at the back. Their away record is actually pretty good as they have not been so gung-ho and have been happy to pick up draws and search for wins at home. They go won two, drawn six and lost just two on the road so far. Points to a draw for me.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with Coral. 2 points.
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund, Sunday 1430
Second plays third in this important clash on Sunday afternoon. Leverkusen have been the side who have most benefitted from Dortmund making a real go of the Champions League this season. Since Sami Hyypia was drafted in as manager they have looked a very good side, albeit one with no massive stars or egos. Basically they're a side who play to their strengths and don't rely on any fashionable tactical tweaking. They have two excellent forwards in Stefan Kiesling and Andreas Schurrle who would fit in up front for many larger sides, such is their quality. With the also brilliant Lars Bender in front of the defence sorting things out they are well covered. They're a side built to play regularly well, a dream for punters really.
After all I have said about Leverkusen's brilliance, they can't match up to the quality of either Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund on their day. Munich have stormed away with the league's top spot with Dortmund focussing on European football more, but Dortmund tradtionally come on strong after the winter break and look likely to again this season. They opened up with a stunning 5-0 victory over Werder Bremen and followed that with an easy 3-0 win over Nurnberg last weekend. With the Champions League a little way off and everyone fit and firing currently I wouldn't want to be against them.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 2.2 with William Hill. 2 points.
Besiktas v Karabukspor, Friday 1800
In the Turkish Super Lig it looked likely that the only side with a hope of stopping the Galatasaray juggernaut was city rivals Besiktas. Last weekend the two sides met in the aftermath of Gala signing both Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba for a full on assault on the Champions League too, needing a win to apply some pressure. Sadly, even after Gala went down to ten men, Besik could not come back and lost 2-1 to leave themselves five points behind. This shouldn't be a huge problem, but there is no flakier side than Besik. They have now not won since the winter break and are all but out of the title race. Not a good place mentally for a fragile team.
Karabukspor have been the latest side in Turkey to adopt a policy of going all out for three points away from home, and it has propelled them to mid-table safety so far. Their away record of won five and lost five with no draws shows just how precarious a tactic it is for us to bet on though. They do have a league high record of nineteen goals in away matches too which they share currently with Galatasaray. I think they look a touch too long in odds with this in mind.
Lay Besiktas at 1.65 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Bursaspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
Bursaspor have spent pretty big in the past eighteen months to populate their squad with Turkish players returning from other leagues and foreigners like Scott Carson in the hope they should be of better standard than the local players. The two biggest names in this policy have probably been the aforementioned Carson and Tuncay Sanli, formerly of the Premier League. Both of these have been a let down for the weight their names carried and the no doubt huge pay packets they are on. Carson in particular has been dreadful of late and is a large part of Bursa conceding so many goals. They have been a lot better at home than away with a record of won four, drawn four and lost two. They have also only conceded eight goals in those ten matches, but were well beaten 4-1 at home by a by no means great Istanbul BB side last weekend. They are well out of form.
Galatasaray managed to extend their lead at the summit of the Super Lig last weekend by beating their nearest rivals Besiktas in the Turk Telekom stadium. This was after the euphoria of signing Wesley Sneijder and announcing that the now completed deal for Didier Drogba was in the pipeline. Whilst Sneijder has not been phenomenal since his 2010 heroics for Inter Milan and Holland, he is still far better than anyone else in the league. Similarly Drogba may now be thirty five, but he is still an excellent addition to complement the excellent Burak Yilmaz in attack. I expect Sneijder to dominate against Bursa and lead Gala's continued march to the title.
Back Galatasaray at 2.2 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Thursday, 31 January 2013
Thursday, 17 January 2013
Let The Good Times Roll...
Last weekend again saw us building up the bank for the inevitable cold snap in betting to match the weather outside. I don't mean to keep shouting the negative, but it pays to be aware that you can't win them all. If you could then we'd all have gone pro!
Week 21
Everton v Swansea - Win 3.17 points.
Norwich v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Liverpool - Win 2.7 points.
Osasuna v Real Madrid - Win 1.5 points.
Catania v Roma - Win 2.4 points.
Totals - Win 7.77 points.
Running Totals - Up 27.65 points.
Music this week from Bad Astronaut with Break Your Frame.
Swansea v Stoke, Saturday 1500
Late last night Swansea were eliminated from the FA Cup by a late Jack Wilshere winner for Arsenal. They probably won't be hugely upset though as they have a lead going into the second leg of the League Cup semi final and are riding high in the Premier League too. In my season preview I was slightly sceptical of how Michael Laudrup would cope in England as he had only previously managed in Spain of the major leagues. However comma he has been going extremely well and looks like a possible manager of the year candidate if he does win a cup. He has been well used to working within a tight budget in Spain and it is this that is perhaps serving him well, as well as his signings from La Liga. Brendan Rodgers had a very well functioning side, but it did somewhat lack in flair or a plan B. Laudrup has added some very good players to the attack from Spain such as Michu, Jonatan De Guzman and Pablo Hernandez. Whilst the latter two have not been as obviously brilliant as Michu, they contribute by showing their technical ability and tricks when required. I still think the bookies occasionally under-value the Welsh side.
Stoke started the season poorly and have still not cured their long term malaise away from the Brittania. Tony Pulis is fortunate in that the fans of the side seem perfectly content to revel in their physical approach and, to his credit, they look unlikely to go down under his stewardship. They still offer very little in terms of passing or flair and rely upon battling qualities to grind out wins. This is majorly aided when they're at home by the backing they receive and it certainly seems to make referees less inclined to dish cards out for their rough stuff. This also means that they have to tone it down somewhat away due to the higher risk of losing players to sending offs. This should give Swansea plenty of chances to overcome them.
Back Swansea at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.
West Ham v QPR, Saturday 1500
The Hammers have not been outclassed at all really upon their return to the Premier League under Sam Allardyce. I still feel there will come a time not too long in the future when the fans turn against his style of play, but they currently seem sensible enough to realise what a decent job he is doing. With this being said they are in a slightly poor run of late. This has seen them only winning one match since the 3-1 win over Chelsea that made people sit up and take notice of the season they're having. In this poor run they have also lost two of their three home matches, to Everton and Liverpool, and beaten a Norwich side who are beginning to look a little tired. The problem seems to be the forwards for me. Andy Carroll has not found his shooting boots, Carlton Cole also, and this puts real pressure on everyone else. The midfield are working their socks off and I have even seen mentions of an England call for captain Mark Noble, but this won't win them games. They look a little short for a side who are struggling for goals.
The rise of QPR under Harry Redknapp appears to be beginning. Had he been forced to simply persist with the horrendous squad he inherited from Mark Hughes they may well be doomed, but the additions he has made, or is making, look of sufficient quality to make avoiding relegation a possibility. This week has seen QPR sign Loic Remy from Marseille and the signing of Yann M'Vila from Rennes also looks likely, possibly in time for this match. Whilst both of these players have had their issues, or else their sights would be higher than QPR, there is definitely quality in them both. Both were French internationals not long ago and both also have very good physical qualities that should see them settle in quickly in England. The fact that Rangers had already begun to pick up their performances gives me enough confidence to be on their side at these odds.
Lay West Ham at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Granada v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 1500
With this one we're taking something of a punt on Rayo's hit and miss away form, but I think it's worth doing. Granada are hovering around the bottom of the table and have a truly dire home record. So far they have only won one match at their own ground with four draws and four losses too. This has in fact left the level on points with Mallorca who are the last side in the current relegation zone. Granada are another club, along with Watford, that the Italian side Udinese have invested in with a view to bringing numerous players into Europe and getting them playing time before either heading to Udine themselves or being sold on at a profit. Watford are beginning to benefit from the approach in the second tier in England, but it would appear that the top league in Spain is a bridge too far for Granada at times. Seven goals in nine home matches tells you where the problems lie.
Rayo Vallecano have kicked on again this season. They have been a side on the up and up ever since promotion to the top flight and have generally used an attacking approach to do it. This has again been true this season. They do leave themselves very open to being picked off if not everyone is on top of their games, but this risky approach has seen them up to sixth in the league so far. They have only drawn a solitary match all season and that was at home. Away from Vallecas they go won four and lost five of nine, with thirteen scored and a whopping twenty one conceded. The gamble is that with Granada offering little attacking threat Rayo will be able to outgun them.
Lay Granada at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Roma v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Last weekends laying of Roma was a good choice with the capital side again struggling away from home. The return of the previously successful manager Zdenek Zeman was meant to usher back success and with it plenty of the excitement his sides are famed for. As these things often do though, it has not gone according to plan. Zeman's magic touch appears a little outdated now with sides much less likely to give up spaces to exploit as easily and possession the name of the game. There will still be matches where it all clicks and they absolutely bombard sides until they fold, but I think he'll be lucky to last past the summer in the managerial position. He has also again exposed his prickly character in leaving Daniele De Rossi out of the side when they could really do with his application, experience and leadership. They have been far better at home with five wins, two draws and two losses, but they do run themselves close at times.
Inter Milan looked the most likely challengers to Juventus at the start of December, but some mixed results saw them drop back to fourth and possibly out of it. That Juventus have dropped points in their last two matches should give them hope that a good run of results could push them back into contention though, however unlikely. Inter are yet another side with an incredibly patchy away record. They go four wins and six losses from ten, in fact they haven't won away since early November when they broke Juventus's incredible unbeaten run. They really haven't found those heights since and it is possible the unrest surrounding the popular Wesley Sneijder has transferred to the rest of the side. Diego Milito looks less of a player in his absence and without his goals they will always struggle.
Back Roma at 2.1 with Ladbrokes. 1.5 points.
Schalke v Hannover 96, Friday 1930
This is the only match that stands out to me in the Bundesliga this weekend. It is also the first match for many sides after the winter break and I'd be keen to see a few of them in action before committing my money. That being said, Schalke earnt us plenty of money by laying them before the break and this still appears to be the case in this match. They clearly have some good players in the ranks, but it seems the fact they are in the Champions League has seen them priced very short by English bookmakers for a side that was performing so badly they sacked their manager before Xmas.
Hannover are a much more reliable side. They always put the effort in, although this season has seen them not getting the rewards away from home. This sees them well down the table from their usual position around the Europa League spots, but they should be looking to put this right. They have struggled for goals away from home so far with only thirteen scored compared to twenty in the same amount of home matches. It's a punt, but they're good enough to upset the odds I think.
Lay Schalke at 1.72 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Besiktas v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1700
Another league that returns this weekend is the Turkish Super Lig. Similarly to Germany, I'm not keen to commit loads of money to bets until I've had a week or two to see how well prepared the returning sides are. Besiktas can usually be relied upon to have plenty of goals in their matches and as ever this is the case. They have had more goals in their matches than any other side in the Super Lig so far. They also sit second in the table thanks to getting themselves together in a way that has seemed beyond them for years. The re-signing of Manuel Fernandes was a master stroke. The Portugese would fit in in any league in Europe in my opinion and is capable of running games in Turkey.
Istanbul BB had been riding high for a couple of seasons, but have fallen back this term. They were one of the first sides to attempt the attack when away approach a few are now going with and to an extent it is working. They have a record of won four and lost five with eleven scored and ten conceded. This may not be huge numbers, but in Turkey it's plenty good enough to rely on them getting a goal. I can see goals in this one, possibly plenty of them.
Back Over 3.0 Goals at 2.05 with Bet365. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Sunday 1400
I think Trabzonspor are a bit short for this match. Their home record of four wins, three draws and two losses is not bad, but only scoring nine goals in nine matches in not good enough. The sale of Burak Yilmaz robbed them of over 50% of their goals in the previous two seasons so they need to find a way of replacing those goals. It looks increasingly like only signing a new striker can get them back up the table.
Karabukspor seem to be the latest side in Turkey to take on the score more than you approach away from home. This has seen them comfortably in mid-table and only one place behind their more illustrious opponents Trabzon. They have won four and lost five of nine matches away from home, but the real shock is their goals record. They have scored an enormous sixteen and conceded nineteen in those matches. Turkey is not a high scoring country so this is unheard of. I'm backing Trabzon not having enough threat to hurt Karabuk and Karabuk to somehow capitalise.
Lay Trabzonspor at 1.9 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Week 21
Everton v Swansea - Win 3.17 points.
Norwich v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Liverpool - Win 2.7 points.
Osasuna v Real Madrid - Win 1.5 points.
Catania v Roma - Win 2.4 points.
Totals - Win 7.77 points.
Running Totals - Up 27.65 points.
Music this week from Bad Astronaut with Break Your Frame.
Swansea v Stoke, Saturday 1500
Late last night Swansea were eliminated from the FA Cup by a late Jack Wilshere winner for Arsenal. They probably won't be hugely upset though as they have a lead going into the second leg of the League Cup semi final and are riding high in the Premier League too. In my season preview I was slightly sceptical of how Michael Laudrup would cope in England as he had only previously managed in Spain of the major leagues. However comma he has been going extremely well and looks like a possible manager of the year candidate if he does win a cup. He has been well used to working within a tight budget in Spain and it is this that is perhaps serving him well, as well as his signings from La Liga. Brendan Rodgers had a very well functioning side, but it did somewhat lack in flair or a plan B. Laudrup has added some very good players to the attack from Spain such as Michu, Jonatan De Guzman and Pablo Hernandez. Whilst the latter two have not been as obviously brilliant as Michu, they contribute by showing their technical ability and tricks when required. I still think the bookies occasionally under-value the Welsh side.
Stoke started the season poorly and have still not cured their long term malaise away from the Brittania. Tony Pulis is fortunate in that the fans of the side seem perfectly content to revel in their physical approach and, to his credit, they look unlikely to go down under his stewardship. They still offer very little in terms of passing or flair and rely upon battling qualities to grind out wins. This is majorly aided when they're at home by the backing they receive and it certainly seems to make referees less inclined to dish cards out for their rough stuff. This also means that they have to tone it down somewhat away due to the higher risk of losing players to sending offs. This should give Swansea plenty of chances to overcome them.
Back Swansea at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.
West Ham v QPR, Saturday 1500
The Hammers have not been outclassed at all really upon their return to the Premier League under Sam Allardyce. I still feel there will come a time not too long in the future when the fans turn against his style of play, but they currently seem sensible enough to realise what a decent job he is doing. With this being said they are in a slightly poor run of late. This has seen them only winning one match since the 3-1 win over Chelsea that made people sit up and take notice of the season they're having. In this poor run they have also lost two of their three home matches, to Everton and Liverpool, and beaten a Norwich side who are beginning to look a little tired. The problem seems to be the forwards for me. Andy Carroll has not found his shooting boots, Carlton Cole also, and this puts real pressure on everyone else. The midfield are working their socks off and I have even seen mentions of an England call for captain Mark Noble, but this won't win them games. They look a little short for a side who are struggling for goals.
The rise of QPR under Harry Redknapp appears to be beginning. Had he been forced to simply persist with the horrendous squad he inherited from Mark Hughes they may well be doomed, but the additions he has made, or is making, look of sufficient quality to make avoiding relegation a possibility. This week has seen QPR sign Loic Remy from Marseille and the signing of Yann M'Vila from Rennes also looks likely, possibly in time for this match. Whilst both of these players have had their issues, or else their sights would be higher than QPR, there is definitely quality in them both. Both were French internationals not long ago and both also have very good physical qualities that should see them settle in quickly in England. The fact that Rangers had already begun to pick up their performances gives me enough confidence to be on their side at these odds.
Lay West Ham at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Granada v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 1500
With this one we're taking something of a punt on Rayo's hit and miss away form, but I think it's worth doing. Granada are hovering around the bottom of the table and have a truly dire home record. So far they have only won one match at their own ground with four draws and four losses too. This has in fact left the level on points with Mallorca who are the last side in the current relegation zone. Granada are another club, along with Watford, that the Italian side Udinese have invested in with a view to bringing numerous players into Europe and getting them playing time before either heading to Udine themselves or being sold on at a profit. Watford are beginning to benefit from the approach in the second tier in England, but it would appear that the top league in Spain is a bridge too far for Granada at times. Seven goals in nine home matches tells you where the problems lie.
Rayo Vallecano have kicked on again this season. They have been a side on the up and up ever since promotion to the top flight and have generally used an attacking approach to do it. This has again been true this season. They do leave themselves very open to being picked off if not everyone is on top of their games, but this risky approach has seen them up to sixth in the league so far. They have only drawn a solitary match all season and that was at home. Away from Vallecas they go won four and lost five of nine, with thirteen scored and a whopping twenty one conceded. The gamble is that with Granada offering little attacking threat Rayo will be able to outgun them.
Lay Granada at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Roma v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Last weekends laying of Roma was a good choice with the capital side again struggling away from home. The return of the previously successful manager Zdenek Zeman was meant to usher back success and with it plenty of the excitement his sides are famed for. As these things often do though, it has not gone according to plan. Zeman's magic touch appears a little outdated now with sides much less likely to give up spaces to exploit as easily and possession the name of the game. There will still be matches where it all clicks and they absolutely bombard sides until they fold, but I think he'll be lucky to last past the summer in the managerial position. He has also again exposed his prickly character in leaving Daniele De Rossi out of the side when they could really do with his application, experience and leadership. They have been far better at home with five wins, two draws and two losses, but they do run themselves close at times.
Inter Milan looked the most likely challengers to Juventus at the start of December, but some mixed results saw them drop back to fourth and possibly out of it. That Juventus have dropped points in their last two matches should give them hope that a good run of results could push them back into contention though, however unlikely. Inter are yet another side with an incredibly patchy away record. They go four wins and six losses from ten, in fact they haven't won away since early November when they broke Juventus's incredible unbeaten run. They really haven't found those heights since and it is possible the unrest surrounding the popular Wesley Sneijder has transferred to the rest of the side. Diego Milito looks less of a player in his absence and without his goals they will always struggle.
Back Roma at 2.1 with Ladbrokes. 1.5 points.
Schalke v Hannover 96, Friday 1930
This is the only match that stands out to me in the Bundesliga this weekend. It is also the first match for many sides after the winter break and I'd be keen to see a few of them in action before committing my money. That being said, Schalke earnt us plenty of money by laying them before the break and this still appears to be the case in this match. They clearly have some good players in the ranks, but it seems the fact they are in the Champions League has seen them priced very short by English bookmakers for a side that was performing so badly they sacked their manager before Xmas.
Hannover are a much more reliable side. They always put the effort in, although this season has seen them not getting the rewards away from home. This sees them well down the table from their usual position around the Europa League spots, but they should be looking to put this right. They have struggled for goals away from home so far with only thirteen scored compared to twenty in the same amount of home matches. It's a punt, but they're good enough to upset the odds I think.
Lay Schalke at 1.72 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Besiktas v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1700
Another league that returns this weekend is the Turkish Super Lig. Similarly to Germany, I'm not keen to commit loads of money to bets until I've had a week or two to see how well prepared the returning sides are. Besiktas can usually be relied upon to have plenty of goals in their matches and as ever this is the case. They have had more goals in their matches than any other side in the Super Lig so far. They also sit second in the table thanks to getting themselves together in a way that has seemed beyond them for years. The re-signing of Manuel Fernandes was a master stroke. The Portugese would fit in in any league in Europe in my opinion and is capable of running games in Turkey.
Istanbul BB had been riding high for a couple of seasons, but have fallen back this term. They were one of the first sides to attempt the attack when away approach a few are now going with and to an extent it is working. They have a record of won four and lost five with eleven scored and ten conceded. This may not be huge numbers, but in Turkey it's plenty good enough to rely on them getting a goal. I can see goals in this one, possibly plenty of them.
Back Over 3.0 Goals at 2.05 with Bet365. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Sunday 1400
I think Trabzonspor are a bit short for this match. Their home record of four wins, three draws and two losses is not bad, but only scoring nine goals in nine matches in not good enough. The sale of Burak Yilmaz robbed them of over 50% of their goals in the previous two seasons so they need to find a way of replacing those goals. It looks increasingly like only signing a new striker can get them back up the table.
Karabukspor seem to be the latest side in Turkey to take on the score more than you approach away from home. This has seen them comfortably in mid-table and only one place behind their more illustrious opponents Trabzon. They have won four and lost five of nine matches away from home, but the real shock is their goals record. They have scored an enormous sixteen and conceded nineteen in those matches. Turkey is not a high scoring country so this is unheard of. I'm backing Trabzon not having enough threat to hurt Karabuk and Karabuk to somehow capitalise.
Lay Trabzonspor at 1.9 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Thursday, 10 January 2013
Starting The Year In The Black...
The first column of the year came in over the weekend with just one bet down so I will endeavour to keep steadily churning profit. The thing to be aware of is that you would have to be incredibly disciplined/knowledgeable/lucky to win all the time and losing is inevitable. I do this column as a bit of fun for myself, although I am serious about the bets, and any money we make is simply a little extra.
Week 20
Crystal Palace v Stoke City - Lose 2 points.
West Ham v Manchester United - Win 2.8 points.
Swansea v Arsenal - Win 2.4 points.
Levante v Athletic Bilbao - Win 3.5 points.
Lazio v Cagliari - Win 1.83 points.
Totals - Win 8.53 points.
Running Total - Up 19.88 points.
Music this week from another old favourite Hot Water Music with Under Everything.
Everton v Swansea, Saturday 1500
The pick of the prices for me on Saturday is Everton looking very short against the ever impressive Swansea. Everton started off the season like a train and were scoring goals from all areas and dominating any side they played physically too. The deployment of the hulking Marouane Fellaini behind the striker was a master stroke by David Moyes. Many sides now seem to be requiring goals less and less from the notional central man in the forward line, Christian Benteke at Aston Villa is another example. Fellaini can very well get goals when given the chance, and is a huge aerial threat, but his main role is to bully defenders and create space for those around him like Nikola Jelavic and Steven Pienaar. The problem in the last month has been that Fellaini has looked tired and the goals have dried up for the rest of the side at the same time. This leaves Everton as a solid side, Moyes will always see to that, but without the threat to justify such short odds in this.
Swansea look to have really settled into the style of play Michael Laudrup wants to see now. There were bound to be issues to be solved when changing from Brendan Rodgers Barcelona-lite style of constant passing to having more threat under Laudrup. To do this he has brought in players he was familiar with from his time in Spain. The most obvious success has been the forward Michu, who is taking up numerous column inches of late as some sort of 'discovery'. The fact is that he had been a journeyman until last year when he was moved forward and contributed 15 goals to a relatively poor Rayo Vallecano side. These things were there for all to see so I don't wuite buy into him being 'unearthed' by Swansea or Laudrup. But, he is having a brilliant season. He is not the tiki taka type and his style of simply looking for a shot at all times might even suit the Premier League better than La Liga. Throw in the likes of Jonatan De Guzman on the wing and the mercurial Pablo Hernandez also on the flanks and there is a lot of quality in this side now.
Lay Everton at 1.63 on Betfair. 2 points.
Norwich City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
A side I have followed since around November has been Norwich City. After the loss of manager Paul Lambert to Aston Villa in the summer the club went and got Chris Hughton from Birmingham City. Hughton had done superbly at both Newcastle and Birmingham in the Championship with restrictions on playing staff and Norwich took a chance on him doing the same in the Premier League. This initially may have looked madness with goals being shipped all over, but once they settled into his system they went on a ten match unbeaten streak to pull them well clear of the relegation spots. They had some mixed results over Xmas, but still look a very good side to me. They carry plenty of attacking threat for a mid-table side and look solid at the back. They are edging towards being short in this, but I'll just side with them at the larger prices out there.
Newcastle United have looked dreadful for most of the season so far. Last seasons push for the Champions League now looks a long way away with the side struggling and having already lose ten matches in the league. The first choice eleven that did so well last season has been torn apart by injuries so far and they don't look the same side when one or more of them is missing. The even bigger worry now is that after selling Demba Ba they may not even replace his guaranteed goals. Papiss Cisse now has those shoes to fill and I think he is a more rounded team player, but it will be up to Alan Pardew to make sure that he works to get wins. If these don't start coming soon then it could get very close to a relegation battle. New signings, that have not arrived yet, are needed.
Back Norwich City at 2.25 with BODOG. 2 points.
Manchester United v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
I have stated many times that I think that Manchester United could be doing a lot better than they are in terms of the performances they are turning in. However comma that being said they seem to be comfortably ticking along to getting the title back from neighbours City. This has largely been down to the performances of their forward players and in particular the summer signing, Robin Van Persie. The Dutch striker may have looked expensive for a player with little sell on value, but he will be a bargain if he continues to fire United to the league title. He also seems to be bringing the best out of Wayne Rooney since his spell with Cristiano Ronaldo, which would suggest to me that he can't do it all alone despite what some journalists in this country believe. With Nemanja Vidic also playing his way back into form and fitness they look a decent price to me.
Liverpool are regular lays for me. The sheer weight of supporters money sees them always going off at odds I would suggest are not representative of their performances or league position. I am also beginning to think that their manager Brendan Rodgers got lucky that all was in place for him at Swansea and his spell at Reading may be more like the 'real' Rodgers. Liverpool seem to still rely far too heavily on Luis Suarez dragging them through matches. This is no real shock as he is miles better than any other player at the club, but I would have liked to see Rodgers do something else to help him out. Presumably the signing of Daniel Sturridge is to help with this, but I don't think this is the game they suddenly burst into a partnership. In fact, I would not be surprised if Sturridge starts on the bench with Rodgers looking to contain. They are miles behind United at the moment and I don't see them stopping United scoring.
Back Manchester United at 1.9 with William Hill. 3 points.
Osasuna v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
Osasuna were a side I followed at home last year due to the awesome record they've had there in recent years. They are possibly the side you would most recognise as playing an 'English' style of physical football, Spain's Stoke if you will. They have a compact ground too with fans who are not there to enjoy flair players, rather they want to see their side bully the opposition off the park. They started this season off very poorly and have not turned it round to the extent that they are still bottom of the table. They have never been high scorers and this has been particularly costly with their defence suddenly conceding many more than in previous seasons. This has been tightened up in the last seven matches though, and they have in fact only conceded seven in nine matches at home so far. Strangely I think they've as much chance in this as any decent side visiting.
Real Madrid have become absolutely mental lately. Jose Mourinho seems to have decided that his best course of action is to get the sack and a massive pay off and is doing his best to drag the club into disrepute. He has never tried to placate the media in either Madrid or wider Spain and is now using this as a tool to turn everyone against him. He has recently dropped Iker Casillas as goalkeeper in what looks like more politics with Casillas and Sergio Ramos widely suspected dissenters. The club have all but given up on the league title and have been pretty dreadful on their travels. They're worth opposing for smallish stakes I think in what should be a tough match.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.49 on Betfair. 1.5 point.
Catania v Roma, Sunday 1400
Catania punched well above their weight last season under the newcomer to management Vincenzo Montella. The former Roma forward has since moved on to doing very well with Fiorentina, but his former club are not doing too badly themselves. A lot of this has been down to their excellent home form. Their record reads won six, drawn two and lost two at home so far with seventeen goals scored and only nine conceded. They may even better last seasons eleventh place finish in Rolando Maran's first season in charge. They returned to action after the winter break with a 0-0 draw with Torino at home which doesn't look great on paper, but they were donw to ten men and Torino are probably better than a thirteenth position in the standings.
Roma decided to scrap the Spanish experiment after just a year in the summer and re-appointed fan favourite Zdenek Zeman as manager from promoted Pescara. In the preceding years between his last spell at the club and his return his style of play has not changed at all, he is all out attack. This can be fantastic in Italy where sides still are unsure of how to contend with such an approach when most sides play a much more measured style. It also means that when the forwards don't fire though his sides can be left very exposed. Nowhere is this more true than away. They have a record of five wins, five losses and not a single draw to back up the assertion that they are either very good or very bad. Up against a good home side they look underpriced to me.
Lay Roma at 2.24 on Betfair. 3 points.
Week 20
Crystal Palace v Stoke City - Lose 2 points.
West Ham v Manchester United - Win 2.8 points.
Swansea v Arsenal - Win 2.4 points.
Levante v Athletic Bilbao - Win 3.5 points.
Lazio v Cagliari - Win 1.83 points.
Totals - Win 8.53 points.
Running Total - Up 19.88 points.
Music this week from another old favourite Hot Water Music with Under Everything.
Everton v Swansea, Saturday 1500
The pick of the prices for me on Saturday is Everton looking very short against the ever impressive Swansea. Everton started off the season like a train and were scoring goals from all areas and dominating any side they played physically too. The deployment of the hulking Marouane Fellaini behind the striker was a master stroke by David Moyes. Many sides now seem to be requiring goals less and less from the notional central man in the forward line, Christian Benteke at Aston Villa is another example. Fellaini can very well get goals when given the chance, and is a huge aerial threat, but his main role is to bully defenders and create space for those around him like Nikola Jelavic and Steven Pienaar. The problem in the last month has been that Fellaini has looked tired and the goals have dried up for the rest of the side at the same time. This leaves Everton as a solid side, Moyes will always see to that, but without the threat to justify such short odds in this.
Swansea look to have really settled into the style of play Michael Laudrup wants to see now. There were bound to be issues to be solved when changing from Brendan Rodgers Barcelona-lite style of constant passing to having more threat under Laudrup. To do this he has brought in players he was familiar with from his time in Spain. The most obvious success has been the forward Michu, who is taking up numerous column inches of late as some sort of 'discovery'. The fact is that he had been a journeyman until last year when he was moved forward and contributed 15 goals to a relatively poor Rayo Vallecano side. These things were there for all to see so I don't wuite buy into him being 'unearthed' by Swansea or Laudrup. But, he is having a brilliant season. He is not the tiki taka type and his style of simply looking for a shot at all times might even suit the Premier League better than La Liga. Throw in the likes of Jonatan De Guzman on the wing and the mercurial Pablo Hernandez also on the flanks and there is a lot of quality in this side now.
Lay Everton at 1.63 on Betfair. 2 points.
Norwich City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
A side I have followed since around November has been Norwich City. After the loss of manager Paul Lambert to Aston Villa in the summer the club went and got Chris Hughton from Birmingham City. Hughton had done superbly at both Newcastle and Birmingham in the Championship with restrictions on playing staff and Norwich took a chance on him doing the same in the Premier League. This initially may have looked madness with goals being shipped all over, but once they settled into his system they went on a ten match unbeaten streak to pull them well clear of the relegation spots. They had some mixed results over Xmas, but still look a very good side to me. They carry plenty of attacking threat for a mid-table side and look solid at the back. They are edging towards being short in this, but I'll just side with them at the larger prices out there.
Newcastle United have looked dreadful for most of the season so far. Last seasons push for the Champions League now looks a long way away with the side struggling and having already lose ten matches in the league. The first choice eleven that did so well last season has been torn apart by injuries so far and they don't look the same side when one or more of them is missing. The even bigger worry now is that after selling Demba Ba they may not even replace his guaranteed goals. Papiss Cisse now has those shoes to fill and I think he is a more rounded team player, but it will be up to Alan Pardew to make sure that he works to get wins. If these don't start coming soon then it could get very close to a relegation battle. New signings, that have not arrived yet, are needed.
Back Norwich City at 2.25 with BODOG. 2 points.
Manchester United v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
I have stated many times that I think that Manchester United could be doing a lot better than they are in terms of the performances they are turning in. However comma that being said they seem to be comfortably ticking along to getting the title back from neighbours City. This has largely been down to the performances of their forward players and in particular the summer signing, Robin Van Persie. The Dutch striker may have looked expensive for a player with little sell on value, but he will be a bargain if he continues to fire United to the league title. He also seems to be bringing the best out of Wayne Rooney since his spell with Cristiano Ronaldo, which would suggest to me that he can't do it all alone despite what some journalists in this country believe. With Nemanja Vidic also playing his way back into form and fitness they look a decent price to me.
Liverpool are regular lays for me. The sheer weight of supporters money sees them always going off at odds I would suggest are not representative of their performances or league position. I am also beginning to think that their manager Brendan Rodgers got lucky that all was in place for him at Swansea and his spell at Reading may be more like the 'real' Rodgers. Liverpool seem to still rely far too heavily on Luis Suarez dragging them through matches. This is no real shock as he is miles better than any other player at the club, but I would have liked to see Rodgers do something else to help him out. Presumably the signing of Daniel Sturridge is to help with this, but I don't think this is the game they suddenly burst into a partnership. In fact, I would not be surprised if Sturridge starts on the bench with Rodgers looking to contain. They are miles behind United at the moment and I don't see them stopping United scoring.
Back Manchester United at 1.9 with William Hill. 3 points.
Osasuna v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
Osasuna were a side I followed at home last year due to the awesome record they've had there in recent years. They are possibly the side you would most recognise as playing an 'English' style of physical football, Spain's Stoke if you will. They have a compact ground too with fans who are not there to enjoy flair players, rather they want to see their side bully the opposition off the park. They started this season off very poorly and have not turned it round to the extent that they are still bottom of the table. They have never been high scorers and this has been particularly costly with their defence suddenly conceding many more than in previous seasons. This has been tightened up in the last seven matches though, and they have in fact only conceded seven in nine matches at home so far. Strangely I think they've as much chance in this as any decent side visiting.
Real Madrid have become absolutely mental lately. Jose Mourinho seems to have decided that his best course of action is to get the sack and a massive pay off and is doing his best to drag the club into disrepute. He has never tried to placate the media in either Madrid or wider Spain and is now using this as a tool to turn everyone against him. He has recently dropped Iker Casillas as goalkeeper in what looks like more politics with Casillas and Sergio Ramos widely suspected dissenters. The club have all but given up on the league title and have been pretty dreadful on their travels. They're worth opposing for smallish stakes I think in what should be a tough match.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.49 on Betfair. 1.5 point.
Catania v Roma, Sunday 1400
Catania punched well above their weight last season under the newcomer to management Vincenzo Montella. The former Roma forward has since moved on to doing very well with Fiorentina, but his former club are not doing too badly themselves. A lot of this has been down to their excellent home form. Their record reads won six, drawn two and lost two at home so far with seventeen goals scored and only nine conceded. They may even better last seasons eleventh place finish in Rolando Maran's first season in charge. They returned to action after the winter break with a 0-0 draw with Torino at home which doesn't look great on paper, but they were donw to ten men and Torino are probably better than a thirteenth position in the standings.
Roma decided to scrap the Spanish experiment after just a year in the summer and re-appointed fan favourite Zdenek Zeman as manager from promoted Pescara. In the preceding years between his last spell at the club and his return his style of play has not changed at all, he is all out attack. This can be fantastic in Italy where sides still are unsure of how to contend with such an approach when most sides play a much more measured style. It also means that when the forwards don't fire though his sides can be left very exposed. Nowhere is this more true than away. They have a record of five wins, five losses and not a single draw to back up the assertion that they are either very good or very bad. Up against a good home side they look underpriced to me.
Lay Roma at 2.24 on Betfair. 3 points.
Thursday, 3 January 2013
New Bets For A New Year...
Hello all, hope you had an enjoyable break? Whilst I did not have time to complete a full column, I was active on the Twitter with some, unfortunately not great, tips. However comma we are still well up for the season so far at the halfway point so let's hope this new year brings yet more profitable selections.
Week 19
West Brom v Norwich - Lose 2 points.
Southampton v Sunderland - Win 1.9 points.
Malaga v Real Madrid - Win 2.8 points.
Atalanta v Udinese - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 3.3 points.
Running Total - Up 11.35 points.
Music this week comes from Cory Branan with Survivor Blues.
This weekend sees the FA Cup returning to England and I'm no huge fan on picking these matches in advance as team line-ups are very volatile depending on how seriously the sides are taking the competition. This being said, there's no doubt some value out there so here goes...
Crystal Palace v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
West Ham United v Manchester United, Saturday 1715
I am grouping these two matches together as they are bets I fancy for roundly similar reasons. Both involve sides with other interests and sides that are safely tucked away from danger. Whilst Crystal Palace started the season like a rocket under manager Dougie Freedman they have stuttered a bit since the appointment of Ian Holloway. The 'mad' manager from Devon is something of an expert at this level and there are already signs he is turning things round again for a play-off push. This is the team with other things on their mind in this tie and I would expect Holloway to forfeit a chance at a cup run in favour of a crack at promotion so any players tired or carrying the slightest knock will be rested in all likelihood.
Stoke, on the other hand, had a poor start by their standards but have improved a lot to now occupy a mid-table berth, which is about the target for them. They have one of the best defensive records in the entire Premier League and with a cup final appearance lately I would expect them to put out a strong side and go for another crack at the FA Cup. Their defence should cope with even the strongest Palace side so I'll be with them in this.
West Ham are in a similar position to Stoke in that their target was always going to be safety and they look well on course to achieve that. Sam Allardyce has his weak spots, but if you want a manager to sort out a defence and avoid trouble then he's pretty much the best there is available to most sides. They are more than capable of beating the big sides on their day and if Man United turn up with less than a full strength side then they could be in for an early exit.
As mentioned above, anything less than a full strength United side could be punished with exiting the FA Cup. When you consider they are top in the league and still in the Champions League they have better things to worry about than a domestic cup too. I would expect to see the likes of Robin Van Persie and Nemanja Vidic rested to keep them available for matches in the two aforementioned competitions and the back-up is nowhere near their level. I'm no huge fan of Danny Welbeck and with Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes possibly also playing a key role I would think United look short in this.
Back Stoke City at 2.45 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Lay Manchester United at 1.71 on Betfair. 2 points.
Swansea v Arsenal, Sunday 1330
The low point of many Arsenal fans seasons so far was probably the loss at home to Swansea. For many it was another glaring illustration of how far behind some of Wenger's previous teams the current side are and I would agree. But, this does something of a dis-service to a Swansea side who look to have picked up where Brendan Rodgers left off and are possibly even have more dimensions to their play now under Michael Laudrup. The Dane went to Spain over the summer for transfers and has been rewarded with some fantastic attacking talent at bargain prices. None more so than Michu who is bothering much bigger names at the top of the Premier League scorers chart. I think they are always slightly undervalued at present due to the quality they possess being more likely to win out in tight matches.
Arsenal fans may even look at someone like Michu and wonder why Arsene Wenger no longer finds foreign bargains like that any more. The likes of Patrick Vieira, Marc Overmars and Robert Pires were all picked up from abroad due to an excellent scouting network and contacts in Europe, but this seems less and less the case now. As manager the buck always stops with Wenger and his tactics don't seem to have evolved at all either. If a side is naive enough to let his side play then they are likely to get turned over, but if they set up cleverly then Arsenal seem to struggle more than ever to break them down, Southampton a few days ago being a case in point. They have shown many times they are far from a brilliant side, but with organised defending in numbers they nullified Arsenal for the most part and came away with a point. With the league and Champions League more important to Wenger I would not fancy them as favourites in this.
Lay Arsenal at 2.26 on Betfair. 3 points.
Levante v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1500
Two sides I've paid a lot of attention to in the last 18 months meet in Valencia on Saturday afternoon. Levante were the shock of last season in La Liga when they pushed all the way for a Champions League spot and narrowly missed out at the finish. They did still qualify for the Europa League though and have shown what a tough side they are to beat. When you look through their squad it is not filled with young players looking for a move, rather seasoned professionals who are all pulling in the same direction and looking for one last chance to impress. They are particularly good at home as is borne out in a record of won five, drawn one and lost two so far. The two losses were also too Real Madrid and Barcelona and the draw was against Atletico Madrid, so they are only not beating the very best in the division.
Athletic Bilbao would have fallen into the best in the division bracket at this stage a year ago, but have fallen considerably since. The manager Marcelo Bielsa has a track record of short spells of excellent performances followed by quick, huge, downturns. This can probably be put down to his rather eccentric personality and the demands he puts on the players in terms of training and matches to constantly press the opposition looking for gaps to exploit. Throw in the loss of star man and captain Javi Martinez to Bayern Munich and the exile of their best forward Fernando Llorente due to contract issues and they would have struggled anyway. They still look poor to me and Levante look great odds.
Back Levante at 2.4 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Lazio v Cagliari, Saturday 1945
With a strong finish to their league campaign in 2012, Lazio finished the year in second spot going into the winter break. This break probably came at the right time for one of the smaller squads amongst the top sides in Serie A and they will hope the key players are back refreshed and raring to go. The fact they are doing so well has largely been down to the performances they have put in at home with a record of won seven, drawn one and lost one, with eighteen scored and just eight conceded. It is their away form that leaves them so far behind Juventus, but that is of little consequence here. They went into the winter break with four home wins in a row, including the Rome derby and also a 1-0 win against Inter Milan, and they look a good price in this.
Cagliari find themselves struggling once again near the foot of the table. In fact, if it wasn't for Siena's points deduction they would be in the bottom three and adrift there. They are far from a big side though and are probably only ever going to aim for safety and may well drop back into Serie B this year or in the near future. Their problems are not hard to identify, they concede too many and don't score nearly enough. With nineteen conceded away from home so far they actually have the second worst record for that in the entire division. They have also only scored eight and look very short for this match in the betting, I can only imagine Lazio's possible rustiness as a factor. I don't see this being enough to put us off though so I'll be going big on them.
Back Lazio at 1.61 with BetVictor. 3 points.
Week 19
West Brom v Norwich - Lose 2 points.
Southampton v Sunderland - Win 1.9 points.
Malaga v Real Madrid - Win 2.8 points.
Atalanta v Udinese - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 3.3 points.
Running Total - Up 11.35 points.
Music this week comes from Cory Branan with Survivor Blues.
This weekend sees the FA Cup returning to England and I'm no huge fan on picking these matches in advance as team line-ups are very volatile depending on how seriously the sides are taking the competition. This being said, there's no doubt some value out there so here goes...
Crystal Palace v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
West Ham United v Manchester United, Saturday 1715
I am grouping these two matches together as they are bets I fancy for roundly similar reasons. Both involve sides with other interests and sides that are safely tucked away from danger. Whilst Crystal Palace started the season like a rocket under manager Dougie Freedman they have stuttered a bit since the appointment of Ian Holloway. The 'mad' manager from Devon is something of an expert at this level and there are already signs he is turning things round again for a play-off push. This is the team with other things on their mind in this tie and I would expect Holloway to forfeit a chance at a cup run in favour of a crack at promotion so any players tired or carrying the slightest knock will be rested in all likelihood.
Stoke, on the other hand, had a poor start by their standards but have improved a lot to now occupy a mid-table berth, which is about the target for them. They have one of the best defensive records in the entire Premier League and with a cup final appearance lately I would expect them to put out a strong side and go for another crack at the FA Cup. Their defence should cope with even the strongest Palace side so I'll be with them in this.
West Ham are in a similar position to Stoke in that their target was always going to be safety and they look well on course to achieve that. Sam Allardyce has his weak spots, but if you want a manager to sort out a defence and avoid trouble then he's pretty much the best there is available to most sides. They are more than capable of beating the big sides on their day and if Man United turn up with less than a full strength side then they could be in for an early exit.
As mentioned above, anything less than a full strength United side could be punished with exiting the FA Cup. When you consider they are top in the league and still in the Champions League they have better things to worry about than a domestic cup too. I would expect to see the likes of Robin Van Persie and Nemanja Vidic rested to keep them available for matches in the two aforementioned competitions and the back-up is nowhere near their level. I'm no huge fan of Danny Welbeck and with Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes possibly also playing a key role I would think United look short in this.
Back Stoke City at 2.45 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Lay Manchester United at 1.71 on Betfair. 2 points.
Swansea v Arsenal, Sunday 1330
The low point of many Arsenal fans seasons so far was probably the loss at home to Swansea. For many it was another glaring illustration of how far behind some of Wenger's previous teams the current side are and I would agree. But, this does something of a dis-service to a Swansea side who look to have picked up where Brendan Rodgers left off and are possibly even have more dimensions to their play now under Michael Laudrup. The Dane went to Spain over the summer for transfers and has been rewarded with some fantastic attacking talent at bargain prices. None more so than Michu who is bothering much bigger names at the top of the Premier League scorers chart. I think they are always slightly undervalued at present due to the quality they possess being more likely to win out in tight matches.
Arsenal fans may even look at someone like Michu and wonder why Arsene Wenger no longer finds foreign bargains like that any more. The likes of Patrick Vieira, Marc Overmars and Robert Pires were all picked up from abroad due to an excellent scouting network and contacts in Europe, but this seems less and less the case now. As manager the buck always stops with Wenger and his tactics don't seem to have evolved at all either. If a side is naive enough to let his side play then they are likely to get turned over, but if they set up cleverly then Arsenal seem to struggle more than ever to break them down, Southampton a few days ago being a case in point. They have shown many times they are far from a brilliant side, but with organised defending in numbers they nullified Arsenal for the most part and came away with a point. With the league and Champions League more important to Wenger I would not fancy them as favourites in this.
Lay Arsenal at 2.26 on Betfair. 3 points.
Levante v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1500
Two sides I've paid a lot of attention to in the last 18 months meet in Valencia on Saturday afternoon. Levante were the shock of last season in La Liga when they pushed all the way for a Champions League spot and narrowly missed out at the finish. They did still qualify for the Europa League though and have shown what a tough side they are to beat. When you look through their squad it is not filled with young players looking for a move, rather seasoned professionals who are all pulling in the same direction and looking for one last chance to impress. They are particularly good at home as is borne out in a record of won five, drawn one and lost two so far. The two losses were also too Real Madrid and Barcelona and the draw was against Atletico Madrid, so they are only not beating the very best in the division.
Athletic Bilbao would have fallen into the best in the division bracket at this stage a year ago, but have fallen considerably since. The manager Marcelo Bielsa has a track record of short spells of excellent performances followed by quick, huge, downturns. This can probably be put down to his rather eccentric personality and the demands he puts on the players in terms of training and matches to constantly press the opposition looking for gaps to exploit. Throw in the loss of star man and captain Javi Martinez to Bayern Munich and the exile of their best forward Fernando Llorente due to contract issues and they would have struggled anyway. They still look poor to me and Levante look great odds.
Back Levante at 2.4 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Lazio v Cagliari, Saturday 1945
With a strong finish to their league campaign in 2012, Lazio finished the year in second spot going into the winter break. This break probably came at the right time for one of the smaller squads amongst the top sides in Serie A and they will hope the key players are back refreshed and raring to go. The fact they are doing so well has largely been down to the performances they have put in at home with a record of won seven, drawn one and lost one, with eighteen scored and just eight conceded. It is their away form that leaves them so far behind Juventus, but that is of little consequence here. They went into the winter break with four home wins in a row, including the Rome derby and also a 1-0 win against Inter Milan, and they look a good price in this.
Cagliari find themselves struggling once again near the foot of the table. In fact, if it wasn't for Siena's points deduction they would be in the bottom three and adrift there. They are far from a big side though and are probably only ever going to aim for safety and may well drop back into Serie B this year or in the near future. Their problems are not hard to identify, they concede too many and don't score nearly enough. With nineteen conceded away from home so far they actually have the second worst record for that in the entire division. They have also only scored eight and look very short for this match in the betting, I can only imagine Lazio's possible rustiness as a factor. I don't see this being enough to put us off though so I'll be going big on them.
Back Lazio at 1.61 with BetVictor. 3 points.
Thursday, 20 December 2012
Deck The Halls...
Last weekend made it four from four profitable weekends in a row now for everyone, and has hopefully left you all with a nice bit extra for the Xmas break. This is the last weekend for a while where all the leagues we cover are running as most barring England have a winter break before returning in the new year. Due to it being the festive period there will be a possibility that I do not have time to complete another full column so keep an eye on @TopTopTips on the Twitter for all your betting needs!
Week 18
Liverpool v Aston Villa - Win 2.58 points.
Norwich v Wigan - Win 2.6 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao - Lose 2 points.
Chievo v Roma - Win 1.94 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt - Win 1.98 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg - Lose 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor - Lose 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce - Win 2.1 points.
Total - Win 5.2 points.
Running Total - Up 12.65 points.
As it's the season, we'll listen to The Ramones with Merry Christmas (I don't want to fight tonight).
West Bromwich Albion v Norwich City, Saturday 1500
I was following West Brom after their brilliant start to the season and have since actually moved towards their opponents when betting. Steve Clarke has done an excellent job after taking over as manager at The Hawthorns in the summer, but of late the goals have dried up and his side are struggling a bit. They are not getting blown away by sides, Clarke's reputation as a master defensive coach will not be for nothing, but with all their strikers out of form they are not getting any results. They do have a small squad by Premier League standards and the fatigue that may set in as most of their players were regulars all of last season too could be the issue. They have only conceded six in eight home matches, but whilst they look so poor in front of goal it is hard to see their odds as representative.
Norwich had an awful start to the season, but are now on the longest unbeaten run in Europe's top divisions except for the might of Barcelona. Whereas Steve Clarke looked a shoe-in for manager of the season a month ago with West Brom hovering around the Champions League spots, Norwich would actually overtake their hosts in the table with a victory. Norwich's turnaround is not exactly rocket science, they have settled new players into the side and improved in every area. A leaky defence due to both centre halves being new has now turned into one of the most solid looking in the league. The midfield has looked solid with Alexander Tettey an added physical presence, Wes Hoolahan providing flair and incisiveness and Anthony Pilkington looking a danger every match from wide. Grant Holt also discovering his form of the past few seasons, if not as prolific, has also aided their recover no end.
Lay West Bromwich Albion at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Southampton v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
This match is not that different to the first pick for me, with one side's form receding as the others picks up. Neither of these sides has hit the heights of form that West Brom or Norwich have, but they have changed nevertheless. Southampton started the season looking every a inch a promoted side well out of their depth. The defence in particular looked absolutely dreadful and it was tough to see how they could avoid relegation. To the manager Nigel Adkins credit they have turned it round to the extent that they now have a fighting chance of escaping. With a truly horrendous away record this is almost exclusively down to a home record that has seen them win three and draw three of nine. This being said I still think that with the exception of Gaston Ramirez and possibly Adam Lallana they are still a side that belongs in the second tier and look very short for the win to me.
Sunderland are slowly picking up again after a terrible run once the initial effect of Martin O'Neill's appointment wore off last season. The Northern Irishman is known as a master motivator and it seemed that just his being around was getting hugely increased performances out of his players. Unfortunately my opinion is that he is tactically behind the times and limited as well as having a very closed minded approach to new signings. He plays a very defensive style of football which does help them become tough to beat, but at home it leaves the fans feeling short changed and this feeds into the players. The only major signing was Steven Fletcher in the summer and whilst he has impressed even when other have not, O'Neill's seeming refusal to scout further afield than Scotland leaves me with the impression he's missing out. All this being said, against a Southampton side that look a bit green O'Neill should fancy his sides chances of escaping with at least a point and I would agree.
Lay Southampton at 2.05 on Betfair. 2 points.
Malaga v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
I've not layed Real Madrid often enough this season I don't think. Regular watchers have reported a severe drop off in performance levels in the league in general and particularly away from home. Mourinho all but admitted he could not guide his side to the league title this season last weekend to much disgust in the ever important local press. I would imagine the three year curse is in again and would expect him to leave as soon as Real leave the Champions League and definitely at seasons end even if they triumph. Away from home they have a record of won four, drawn one and lost three.
Malaga have surprised many observers after selling Santi Cazorla and seeing the Dubai funds dry up by staying in the hunt for Champions League qualification again as well as qualifying top of their Champions League group ahead of AC Milan and the highly fancied Zenit St Petersburg. This is to experienced manager Manuel Pellegrini's credit as he has promoted youngster Isco to the side and has seen the talented attacking midfielder repay him with numerous match winning performances. They have a home record of won five, drawn one and lost only two. They look a shade overpriced when looking at the teams respective performances.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.62 on Betfair. 2 points.
Atalanta v Udinese, Saturday 1400
This is another pick basically due to home and away form of the sides. Atalanta have been excellent at home this year and a record of won five and lost three so far. They have only scored ten goals in those matches and conceded eleven, but if you remove the strange thrashing they took by Torino at home in a 5-1 defeat then the record looks much better. They rely upon a strong defence and midfield that works very hard to help out and then an attack which takes a good percentage of the few chances created. This might not work in many other leagues, but in the notoriously defensive Serie A it is good enough for a solid mid-table finish.
Udinese look like they may finally be suffering for selling off their best players every summer and relying on the goals of ageing hitman Antonion Di Natale. They do have a brilliant scouting network in South America and Africa which will no doubt turn out some more gems, but at present they are not as strong as they have been. They are nowhere near relegation, but the last two seasons title pushes look a long way off now. They've drawn eight matches so far this season of seventeen, with an even spread between home and away. They've only won two away however comma and have also conceded fourteen in only nine matches. I couldn't back them in this one.
Back Atalanta at 2.25 with Boylesports. 2 points.
German Bundesliga all done until January 2013.
Kasimpasa v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1300
Kasimpasa started off the season in the Super Lig brilliantly after promotion over the summer. This has now inevitably tailed off though and the more experienced sides have settled in above them. Kasimpasa went for a transfer approach which saw them buying up numerous players with top level experience in Turkey rather than trusting in the players that brought them up and you would have to say it has been a success with them comfortably in the top half of the table. Their home matches have also produced a lot of goals by the countries standards with fourteen four and ten against. They give and take on the tactics front and a record with four draws, three wins and a sole defeat doesn't quite do that justice. It just shows that their approach of scoring more than the opposition has worked, but I think they've been fortunate so far too.
Istanbul BB have upset the tactical cart in Turkey along with Mersin Idman Yurdu by having the temerity to play for wins away from home. This has only previously been the reserve of the big Istanbul clubs and has not been taken into account in some of the odds as I see it. They've not conceded as many as some away from home, but have had a tendency to let them in when sides come at them as Kasimpasa are likely too. I think they'll either be good for a goal at least themselves or have an off day and take a thrashing so I think goals is the bet here.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with William Hill. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
It's two weekends in a row now that Galatasaray have huge matches. This weekend sees them travelling to a Trabzonspor side who are having a mixed season in the absence of key man Burak Yilmaz. Yilmaz departed for Gala over the summer and with him responsible for over half of the sides goals last season they have had to change tactics considerably to replace his goals. They have scored the least goals of any side in the top half of the Super Lig table to show that they have not quite worked it out yet. They do have a decent record at home so far with four wins, two draws and two defeats, but it's not enough for them to push for a European spot. The two home matches I would class as tough they have faced so far against Eskisehirspor and Bursaspor have both seen them defeated too.
Galatasaray emerged from last weeks Istanbul derby with Fenerbahce with a 2-1 win and will go into the month long winter break at the top of the Super Lig and well on course to retain their title. They have not always fared well in the derby matches either so will take great confidence from that win and would probably not have welcomed the break with a chance to push on and pull further clear. They have an away record of won four, drawn three and only lost once. There has been the odd strange result for them so far, but these should be discarded as anomolies for me, they're by far the best side in Turkey. They have every chance of beating a Trabzon side who look poorer than at any time in a number of years.
Back Galatasaray at 2.3 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Week 18
Liverpool v Aston Villa - Win 2.58 points.
Norwich v Wigan - Win 2.6 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao - Lose 2 points.
Chievo v Roma - Win 1.94 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt - Win 1.98 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg - Lose 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor - Lose 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce - Win 2.1 points.
Total - Win 5.2 points.
Running Total - Up 12.65 points.
As it's the season, we'll listen to The Ramones with Merry Christmas (I don't want to fight tonight).
West Bromwich Albion v Norwich City, Saturday 1500
I was following West Brom after their brilliant start to the season and have since actually moved towards their opponents when betting. Steve Clarke has done an excellent job after taking over as manager at The Hawthorns in the summer, but of late the goals have dried up and his side are struggling a bit. They are not getting blown away by sides, Clarke's reputation as a master defensive coach will not be for nothing, but with all their strikers out of form they are not getting any results. They do have a small squad by Premier League standards and the fatigue that may set in as most of their players were regulars all of last season too could be the issue. They have only conceded six in eight home matches, but whilst they look so poor in front of goal it is hard to see their odds as representative.
Norwich had an awful start to the season, but are now on the longest unbeaten run in Europe's top divisions except for the might of Barcelona. Whereas Steve Clarke looked a shoe-in for manager of the season a month ago with West Brom hovering around the Champions League spots, Norwich would actually overtake their hosts in the table with a victory. Norwich's turnaround is not exactly rocket science, they have settled new players into the side and improved in every area. A leaky defence due to both centre halves being new has now turned into one of the most solid looking in the league. The midfield has looked solid with Alexander Tettey an added physical presence, Wes Hoolahan providing flair and incisiveness and Anthony Pilkington looking a danger every match from wide. Grant Holt also discovering his form of the past few seasons, if not as prolific, has also aided their recover no end.
Lay West Bromwich Albion at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Southampton v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
This match is not that different to the first pick for me, with one side's form receding as the others picks up. Neither of these sides has hit the heights of form that West Brom or Norwich have, but they have changed nevertheless. Southampton started the season looking every a inch a promoted side well out of their depth. The defence in particular looked absolutely dreadful and it was tough to see how they could avoid relegation. To the manager Nigel Adkins credit they have turned it round to the extent that they now have a fighting chance of escaping. With a truly horrendous away record this is almost exclusively down to a home record that has seen them win three and draw three of nine. This being said I still think that with the exception of Gaston Ramirez and possibly Adam Lallana they are still a side that belongs in the second tier and look very short for the win to me.
Sunderland are slowly picking up again after a terrible run once the initial effect of Martin O'Neill's appointment wore off last season. The Northern Irishman is known as a master motivator and it seemed that just his being around was getting hugely increased performances out of his players. Unfortunately my opinion is that he is tactically behind the times and limited as well as having a very closed minded approach to new signings. He plays a very defensive style of football which does help them become tough to beat, but at home it leaves the fans feeling short changed and this feeds into the players. The only major signing was Steven Fletcher in the summer and whilst he has impressed even when other have not, O'Neill's seeming refusal to scout further afield than Scotland leaves me with the impression he's missing out. All this being said, against a Southampton side that look a bit green O'Neill should fancy his sides chances of escaping with at least a point and I would agree.
Lay Southampton at 2.05 on Betfair. 2 points.
Malaga v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
I've not layed Real Madrid often enough this season I don't think. Regular watchers have reported a severe drop off in performance levels in the league in general and particularly away from home. Mourinho all but admitted he could not guide his side to the league title this season last weekend to much disgust in the ever important local press. I would imagine the three year curse is in again and would expect him to leave as soon as Real leave the Champions League and definitely at seasons end even if they triumph. Away from home they have a record of won four, drawn one and lost three.
Malaga have surprised many observers after selling Santi Cazorla and seeing the Dubai funds dry up by staying in the hunt for Champions League qualification again as well as qualifying top of their Champions League group ahead of AC Milan and the highly fancied Zenit St Petersburg. This is to experienced manager Manuel Pellegrini's credit as he has promoted youngster Isco to the side and has seen the talented attacking midfielder repay him with numerous match winning performances. They have a home record of won five, drawn one and lost only two. They look a shade overpriced when looking at the teams respective performances.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.62 on Betfair. 2 points.
Atalanta v Udinese, Saturday 1400
This is another pick basically due to home and away form of the sides. Atalanta have been excellent at home this year and a record of won five and lost three so far. They have only scored ten goals in those matches and conceded eleven, but if you remove the strange thrashing they took by Torino at home in a 5-1 defeat then the record looks much better. They rely upon a strong defence and midfield that works very hard to help out and then an attack which takes a good percentage of the few chances created. This might not work in many other leagues, but in the notoriously defensive Serie A it is good enough for a solid mid-table finish.
Udinese look like they may finally be suffering for selling off their best players every summer and relying on the goals of ageing hitman Antonion Di Natale. They do have a brilliant scouting network in South America and Africa which will no doubt turn out some more gems, but at present they are not as strong as they have been. They are nowhere near relegation, but the last two seasons title pushes look a long way off now. They've drawn eight matches so far this season of seventeen, with an even spread between home and away. They've only won two away however comma and have also conceded fourteen in only nine matches. I couldn't back them in this one.
Back Atalanta at 2.25 with Boylesports. 2 points.
German Bundesliga all done until January 2013.
Kasimpasa v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1300
Kasimpasa started off the season in the Super Lig brilliantly after promotion over the summer. This has now inevitably tailed off though and the more experienced sides have settled in above them. Kasimpasa went for a transfer approach which saw them buying up numerous players with top level experience in Turkey rather than trusting in the players that brought them up and you would have to say it has been a success with them comfortably in the top half of the table. Their home matches have also produced a lot of goals by the countries standards with fourteen four and ten against. They give and take on the tactics front and a record with four draws, three wins and a sole defeat doesn't quite do that justice. It just shows that their approach of scoring more than the opposition has worked, but I think they've been fortunate so far too.
Istanbul BB have upset the tactical cart in Turkey along with Mersin Idman Yurdu by having the temerity to play for wins away from home. This has only previously been the reserve of the big Istanbul clubs and has not been taken into account in some of the odds as I see it. They've not conceded as many as some away from home, but have had a tendency to let them in when sides come at them as Kasimpasa are likely too. I think they'll either be good for a goal at least themselves or have an off day and take a thrashing so I think goals is the bet here.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with William Hill. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
It's two weekends in a row now that Galatasaray have huge matches. This weekend sees them travelling to a Trabzonspor side who are having a mixed season in the absence of key man Burak Yilmaz. Yilmaz departed for Gala over the summer and with him responsible for over half of the sides goals last season they have had to change tactics considerably to replace his goals. They have scored the least goals of any side in the top half of the Super Lig table to show that they have not quite worked it out yet. They do have a decent record at home so far with four wins, two draws and two defeats, but it's not enough for them to push for a European spot. The two home matches I would class as tough they have faced so far against Eskisehirspor and Bursaspor have both seen them defeated too.
Galatasaray emerged from last weeks Istanbul derby with Fenerbahce with a 2-1 win and will go into the month long winter break at the top of the Super Lig and well on course to retain their title. They have not always fared well in the derby matches either so will take great confidence from that win and would probably not have welcomed the break with a chance to push on and pull further clear. They have an away record of won four, drawn three and only lost once. There has been the odd strange result for them so far, but these should be discarded as anomolies for me, they're by far the best side in Turkey. They have every chance of beating a Trabzon side who look poorer than at any time in a number of years.
Back Galatasaray at 2.3 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Friday, 14 December 2012
Making The Most Of It...
This weeks title refers to the fact that many leagues around Europe shut up shop over the Xmas period and therefore this column will shrink considerably when this happens. So we should strike while the irons still warm, as it were. It's been a decent recent run so let's hope this continues on into this festive period!
Week Seventeen
Swansea v Norwich - Win 2.36 points.
Man City v Man Utd - Lose 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca - Win 2.1 points.
Inter Milan v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04 - Win 3.8 points.
Monchengladbach v Mainz 05 - Win 1.8 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Total - Win 1.06 points.
Running Total - Up 7.45 points.
Music this week from a slightly more mainstream choice with The Gaslight Anthem and American Slang.
Liverpool v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Those of you that follow me on Twitter @TopTopTips will probably have noticed that I tend to see Liverpool as often underpriced by the bookmakers. By this I mean I often think the odds are far shorter than they should be. I think the reasons for this are two-fold. There is the history the club has which comes with the reputation that they are a big club and should be beating those who are traditionally much smaller and also as there will often be plenty of money on Liverpool from punters (particularly in matches at Anfield). These things add up to them being shorter than I would price them from a step back. If you look at results over the past two seasons in particular it is clear to see they have regressed well below the Manchester sides as well as Chelsea and probably the likes of Tottenham and Arsenal too, although it could be argued Arsenal are going away. This weekend they take on an Aston Villa side who look to me like they are beginning to find a system that Paul Lambert and the players agree on and are happy in. This has meant that Darren Bent has been relegated behind summer signing Christian Benteke as the Belgian offers far more to the overall team than the English goal-getter. Liverpool's defence has not always looked brilliant when up against a muscular forward and Benteke fits this description.
As mentioned, Villa look to me like they have finally turned a corner and look a lot harder to beat than at any point in the last eighteen months. Paul Lambert has gone back to basics in general and has picked players who have more physical attributes than technical, with the exception of Stephen Ireland, and gone for a relatively defensive approach. This was similar at Norwich where graft was in general valued over fancy trickery and was very successful as the players were possibly aware that they were being given a chance and had to work very hard to keep a place in both the team and the division. Villa are a hard working side now, epitomised by Benteke and Andreas Weimann in attack and complimented by the flair of Ireland being given a role. He is the only player in the side really aloud outside of a strict system and will hope to find gaps to exploit when given a chance.
Back Aston Villa +2 Handicap at 1.72 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Norwich City v Wigan Athletic, Saturday 1500
Another team that have turned their fortunes round this season are Paul Lambert's old side, Norwich. Under the new manager Chris Hughton they took a little while to settle in, but are now looking pretty solid for a mid-table finish again. A lot of their shaky start can probably be put down to a whole new centre of defence and also the lack of creativity in midfield. The pairing of new signings Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong at centre back looks one of the better in the whole Premier League lately and considering it was under £4million for the pair looks an absolute steal now. The improvement in midfield has coincided with Wes Hoolahan's reinstatement in the side. The little Irishman is a great player 'in the hole' and should probably have earned a crack at the top division before now. The current hot streak of form Anthony Pilkington is also in from wide has seen Grant Holt finding last seasons performance level again also and Norwich look very good to me. They've already beaten Manchester United and Arsenal!
Wigan have traditionally been a bogey side for me when betting. They're capable of performing very well when everything clicks, and this seems to happen when I'm against them, so consider yourselves forewarned. This season they have started as slowly as ever, interspersed with the odd impressive performance. I am not at all convinced that Roberto Martinez is the man for the club, his tendency to always go for passing out of trouble is not always the right choice at a club who are likely to be around the relegation spots on the whole. That's not to say he's not a good manager, just maybe not at the right club. He also seems to have a blind spot when it comes to defenders of any quality. He has gone to Spain again this summer to sign Adrian Lopez and Ivan Ramis and I'm not really convinced La Liga is the place to go for defenders, particularly to import to England. The slower pace of the game and reduced physicality means most who come over are shocked and don't fare well, and I think both of these signings fit that description.
Back Norwich City at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1700
This one is simply from looking at some basic pointers and acting accordingly. Mallorca have been a perfectly decent home side for a number of seasons now, and this has continued this time out. They have a record of played seven at home, won three, drawn one and lost three. For a side that seems to aspire to little more than surviving these days that is not bad at all. Athletic Bilbao have moved from a generally backable side last season to one that ought to be layed unless there's particular reason this time. The manager Marcelo Bielsa's methods are only considered effective for a short period when in day to day contact as players and this has been the case here. The Argentine is a notoriously demanding and eccentric coach and it seems many of the side are simply shattered and no longer responding to him.
Back Mallorca at 2.5 with BlueSq. 2 points.
Chievo v Roma, Sunday 1400
Chievo have had a very good home record to thank for them staying in Italy's top division for so long when many expected them to head back to the lower divisions a long time ago. They have not had mountains of money to spend or any huge gate receipts or sponsorship, they have simply relied upon good management, signings and tactics. Italy is obviously a slow, defence minded league and Chievo certainly fit that bill. They are well organised and have only conceded nine in eight home games, of which three were in a dreadful performance against a good Lazio side. They'll make most sides thoroughly earn a victory at their place.
Roma have been hit and miss so far this season as they are again restructuring under Zdenek Zeman's charge. He has a reputation he largely forged in a previous spell at the club for attacking football and having promoted Pescara last season from Serie B he has taken the reigns after last seasons underwhelming Spanish experiment. They currently lie in fifth spot but have conceded twenty six goals already to show they do not rely upon the backline to gain wins, it's more a case of 'we'll get one more than you'! I think they're very short at odds on here.
Lay Roma at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday 1430
First tip from the Bundesliga is this seasons surprise package Frankfurt travelling to recent champions Wolfsburg. Since that Bundesliga title Wolfsburg have been steadily slipping due to numerous player and manager changes, none of which have been at all successful. Whilst it is entirely natural that other larger clubs would pick off the best of the side that won the league, the speed with which it all fell apart has been quite something. Even Steve McClaren got a brief, awful reign in the hotseat. This season they currently find themselves in amongst the relegation players in fourteenth position, although they are some way clear of the bottom three. They also have a pretty poor home record so far of having won only one, drawn three and lost three. They are also struggling to score and conceding with alarming regularity too. They have the worst goal difference outside of the bottom three as we stand. Although they have only lost one of the last six they are still leaking goals and have played sides on days when their oppositions performances have not been great.
Eintracht Frankfurt were one of the promoted trio over the summer and look likely to head into the Xmas break in a European spot. They got off to a brilliant start and most would have expected them to already have reverted back to a more mixed set of results and fallen down the table, but this has not happened. They have had some awful performances, but generally they've not looked at all out of place in the top division. They've also beaten plenty of good sides so far and look a little under-valued by the bookmakers in this to me.
Lay Wolfsburg at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg, Sunday 1630
Two more sides having very mixed seasons are meeting on Sunday afternoon in Bremen. Werder currently sit in the bottom half of the table having not really sorted out their tactical approach. They seem to have reverted back to a more gung-ho style after last seasons unsuccessful attempt to try sorting out their eternally horrendous defence. All that seemed to do was stop them scoring and they were only conceding slightly less. All this being said, they have generally been backable at home. This season they have won four, drawn one and lost two in Bremen. Those two were to Bayern Munich and the impressive Bayer Leverkusen too, so no real disgrace in that at all. I'm taking a chance on them responding to last weeks thrashing and getting a good result.
Nurnberg sit one place below Werder in the table at present, but have not had anywhere near as many good performances as their opponents. With little money to spend and no real tradition to attract players they have tended to rely upon a defensive approach to their tactics and grinding out results. Strikers being the most valuable of assets has meant that bringing in a cutting edge has eluded them too. So far this season they have only scored sixteen in sixteen and only six in eight away from home. Away from home has been particularly poor with only two wins, one draw and five defeats and thirteen conceded in that time. Werder have a great chance to get back on track.
Back Werder Bremen at 1.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
This is going up a bit later than usual so sorry if this is too late for anyone. Eskisehirspor are a personal favourite side of mine in the Super Lig due to their tendency to stay with the big boys most of the season, yet be priced up like a mid-table side in general. With such low liquidity in the market and a lack of knowledge outside the Istanbul three this is no real surprise, but should allow us to make some extra profits when winning with them. They currently sit fourth in the table with a frankly brilliant home record so far. They have won four, drawn two and only lost one and scored seventeen goals in that time with eight conceded. In seasons past the against column may well have been much lower, but at the cost of any attacking threat. They look a much more rounded side now and a challenge for anyone in the division.
Bursaspor have failed to kick on from their Super Lig title of a few years back. They have attempted to sign older Turkish players returning from abroad and players like Scott Carson and Kenny Miller who have excelled, but fallen out of favour in their leagues. Probably not surprisingly this has not been a roaring success and they have had mixed results for the past two seasons and show no signs of that changing. They have become draw specialists away from home with a record of won two, drawn four and lost only one. Whilst that shows they are set up to be hard to beat away, Eskisehir have the ability to blow them away.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.37 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
This simply has to be included! The biggest game in the Super Lig season is always the Istanbul derby between perennial giants Gala and Fener. So far this season Gala have led from the beginning and barring a few slips after Champions League matches they have been pretty imperious. Whilst Fener have signed attackers for the last couple of seasons, Gala have had a more team led strategy of purchasing which has seen them have by far the better, more balanced side. At home so far they have only lost one match to Karabukspor in a strange match where they never got going at all. It definitely seems a rick in form so I'd probably discount it. It was the start of a poorer run where they were definitely focussing their attentions on the Champions League and now that is out of the way I would expect them to kick on again and xtend their lead on top of the table. Last weekends 3-1 away win at Sivasspor shows that might well be starting.
Fenerbahce have looked excellent at home in the Super Lig and Europa League this season, but have looked anything but when on their travels. They have only been beaten once away in the league, but have only won once and drawn five, many when they were lucky to escape to be honest. When you also bear in mind that of those seven trips only Eskisehirspor could be counted as a tough visit so it is far from a good set of results. They will definitely raise their game for this one, but I'm not sure it will be enough when looking at their previous results. They have the attacking quality, but with Burak Yilmaz finding his feet at Gala the defence should be very worried.
Back Galatasaray at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Week Seventeen
Swansea v Norwich - Win 2.36 points.
Man City v Man Utd - Lose 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca - Win 2.1 points.
Inter Milan v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04 - Win 3.8 points.
Monchengladbach v Mainz 05 - Win 1.8 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Total - Win 1.06 points.
Running Total - Up 7.45 points.
Music this week from a slightly more mainstream choice with The Gaslight Anthem and American Slang.
Liverpool v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Those of you that follow me on Twitter @TopTopTips will probably have noticed that I tend to see Liverpool as often underpriced by the bookmakers. By this I mean I often think the odds are far shorter than they should be. I think the reasons for this are two-fold. There is the history the club has which comes with the reputation that they are a big club and should be beating those who are traditionally much smaller and also as there will often be plenty of money on Liverpool from punters (particularly in matches at Anfield). These things add up to them being shorter than I would price them from a step back. If you look at results over the past two seasons in particular it is clear to see they have regressed well below the Manchester sides as well as Chelsea and probably the likes of Tottenham and Arsenal too, although it could be argued Arsenal are going away. This weekend they take on an Aston Villa side who look to me like they are beginning to find a system that Paul Lambert and the players agree on and are happy in. This has meant that Darren Bent has been relegated behind summer signing Christian Benteke as the Belgian offers far more to the overall team than the English goal-getter. Liverpool's defence has not always looked brilliant when up against a muscular forward and Benteke fits this description.
As mentioned, Villa look to me like they have finally turned a corner and look a lot harder to beat than at any point in the last eighteen months. Paul Lambert has gone back to basics in general and has picked players who have more physical attributes than technical, with the exception of Stephen Ireland, and gone for a relatively defensive approach. This was similar at Norwich where graft was in general valued over fancy trickery and was very successful as the players were possibly aware that they were being given a chance and had to work very hard to keep a place in both the team and the division. Villa are a hard working side now, epitomised by Benteke and Andreas Weimann in attack and complimented by the flair of Ireland being given a role. He is the only player in the side really aloud outside of a strict system and will hope to find gaps to exploit when given a chance.
Back Aston Villa +2 Handicap at 1.72 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Norwich City v Wigan Athletic, Saturday 1500
Another team that have turned their fortunes round this season are Paul Lambert's old side, Norwich. Under the new manager Chris Hughton they took a little while to settle in, but are now looking pretty solid for a mid-table finish again. A lot of their shaky start can probably be put down to a whole new centre of defence and also the lack of creativity in midfield. The pairing of new signings Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong at centre back looks one of the better in the whole Premier League lately and considering it was under £4million for the pair looks an absolute steal now. The improvement in midfield has coincided with Wes Hoolahan's reinstatement in the side. The little Irishman is a great player 'in the hole' and should probably have earned a crack at the top division before now. The current hot streak of form Anthony Pilkington is also in from wide has seen Grant Holt finding last seasons performance level again also and Norwich look very good to me. They've already beaten Manchester United and Arsenal!
Wigan have traditionally been a bogey side for me when betting. They're capable of performing very well when everything clicks, and this seems to happen when I'm against them, so consider yourselves forewarned. This season they have started as slowly as ever, interspersed with the odd impressive performance. I am not at all convinced that Roberto Martinez is the man for the club, his tendency to always go for passing out of trouble is not always the right choice at a club who are likely to be around the relegation spots on the whole. That's not to say he's not a good manager, just maybe not at the right club. He also seems to have a blind spot when it comes to defenders of any quality. He has gone to Spain again this summer to sign Adrian Lopez and Ivan Ramis and I'm not really convinced La Liga is the place to go for defenders, particularly to import to England. The slower pace of the game and reduced physicality means most who come over are shocked and don't fare well, and I think both of these signings fit that description.
Back Norwich City at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1700
This one is simply from looking at some basic pointers and acting accordingly. Mallorca have been a perfectly decent home side for a number of seasons now, and this has continued this time out. They have a record of played seven at home, won three, drawn one and lost three. For a side that seems to aspire to little more than surviving these days that is not bad at all. Athletic Bilbao have moved from a generally backable side last season to one that ought to be layed unless there's particular reason this time. The manager Marcelo Bielsa's methods are only considered effective for a short period when in day to day contact as players and this has been the case here. The Argentine is a notoriously demanding and eccentric coach and it seems many of the side are simply shattered and no longer responding to him.
Back Mallorca at 2.5 with BlueSq. 2 points.
Chievo v Roma, Sunday 1400
Chievo have had a very good home record to thank for them staying in Italy's top division for so long when many expected them to head back to the lower divisions a long time ago. They have not had mountains of money to spend or any huge gate receipts or sponsorship, they have simply relied upon good management, signings and tactics. Italy is obviously a slow, defence minded league and Chievo certainly fit that bill. They are well organised and have only conceded nine in eight home games, of which three were in a dreadful performance against a good Lazio side. They'll make most sides thoroughly earn a victory at their place.
Roma have been hit and miss so far this season as they are again restructuring under Zdenek Zeman's charge. He has a reputation he largely forged in a previous spell at the club for attacking football and having promoted Pescara last season from Serie B he has taken the reigns after last seasons underwhelming Spanish experiment. They currently lie in fifth spot but have conceded twenty six goals already to show they do not rely upon the backline to gain wins, it's more a case of 'we'll get one more than you'! I think they're very short at odds on here.
Lay Roma at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday 1430
First tip from the Bundesliga is this seasons surprise package Frankfurt travelling to recent champions Wolfsburg. Since that Bundesliga title Wolfsburg have been steadily slipping due to numerous player and manager changes, none of which have been at all successful. Whilst it is entirely natural that other larger clubs would pick off the best of the side that won the league, the speed with which it all fell apart has been quite something. Even Steve McClaren got a brief, awful reign in the hotseat. This season they currently find themselves in amongst the relegation players in fourteenth position, although they are some way clear of the bottom three. They also have a pretty poor home record so far of having won only one, drawn three and lost three. They are also struggling to score and conceding with alarming regularity too. They have the worst goal difference outside of the bottom three as we stand. Although they have only lost one of the last six they are still leaking goals and have played sides on days when their oppositions performances have not been great.
Eintracht Frankfurt were one of the promoted trio over the summer and look likely to head into the Xmas break in a European spot. They got off to a brilliant start and most would have expected them to already have reverted back to a more mixed set of results and fallen down the table, but this has not happened. They have had some awful performances, but generally they've not looked at all out of place in the top division. They've also beaten plenty of good sides so far and look a little under-valued by the bookmakers in this to me.
Lay Wolfsburg at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg, Sunday 1630
Two more sides having very mixed seasons are meeting on Sunday afternoon in Bremen. Werder currently sit in the bottom half of the table having not really sorted out their tactical approach. They seem to have reverted back to a more gung-ho style after last seasons unsuccessful attempt to try sorting out their eternally horrendous defence. All that seemed to do was stop them scoring and they were only conceding slightly less. All this being said, they have generally been backable at home. This season they have won four, drawn one and lost two in Bremen. Those two were to Bayern Munich and the impressive Bayer Leverkusen too, so no real disgrace in that at all. I'm taking a chance on them responding to last weeks thrashing and getting a good result.
Nurnberg sit one place below Werder in the table at present, but have not had anywhere near as many good performances as their opponents. With little money to spend and no real tradition to attract players they have tended to rely upon a defensive approach to their tactics and grinding out results. Strikers being the most valuable of assets has meant that bringing in a cutting edge has eluded them too. So far this season they have only scored sixteen in sixteen and only six in eight away from home. Away from home has been particularly poor with only two wins, one draw and five defeats and thirteen conceded in that time. Werder have a great chance to get back on track.
Back Werder Bremen at 1.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
This is going up a bit later than usual so sorry if this is too late for anyone. Eskisehirspor are a personal favourite side of mine in the Super Lig due to their tendency to stay with the big boys most of the season, yet be priced up like a mid-table side in general. With such low liquidity in the market and a lack of knowledge outside the Istanbul three this is no real surprise, but should allow us to make some extra profits when winning with them. They currently sit fourth in the table with a frankly brilliant home record so far. They have won four, drawn two and only lost one and scored seventeen goals in that time with eight conceded. In seasons past the against column may well have been much lower, but at the cost of any attacking threat. They look a much more rounded side now and a challenge for anyone in the division.
Bursaspor have failed to kick on from their Super Lig title of a few years back. They have attempted to sign older Turkish players returning from abroad and players like Scott Carson and Kenny Miller who have excelled, but fallen out of favour in their leagues. Probably not surprisingly this has not been a roaring success and they have had mixed results for the past two seasons and show no signs of that changing. They have become draw specialists away from home with a record of won two, drawn four and lost only one. Whilst that shows they are set up to be hard to beat away, Eskisehir have the ability to blow them away.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.37 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
This simply has to be included! The biggest game in the Super Lig season is always the Istanbul derby between perennial giants Gala and Fener. So far this season Gala have led from the beginning and barring a few slips after Champions League matches they have been pretty imperious. Whilst Fener have signed attackers for the last couple of seasons, Gala have had a more team led strategy of purchasing which has seen them have by far the better, more balanced side. At home so far they have only lost one match to Karabukspor in a strange match where they never got going at all. It definitely seems a rick in form so I'd probably discount it. It was the start of a poorer run where they were definitely focussing their attentions on the Champions League and now that is out of the way I would expect them to kick on again and xtend their lead on top of the table. Last weekends 3-1 away win at Sivasspor shows that might well be starting.
Fenerbahce have looked excellent at home in the Super Lig and Europa League this season, but have looked anything but when on their travels. They have only been beaten once away in the league, but have only won once and drawn five, many when they were lucky to escape to be honest. When you also bear in mind that of those seven trips only Eskisehirspor could be counted as a tough visit so it is far from a good set of results. They will definitely raise their game for this one, but I'm not sure it will be enough when looking at their previous results. They have the attacking quality, but with Burak Yilmaz finding his feet at Gala the defence should be very worried.
Back Galatasaray at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Thursday, 6 December 2012
Back And Raring To Go...
Last week I sadly got tremendously busy and was unable to write a full column, so my apologies for that. Until the momentous day I become paid for all this my real job has to take priority! Those that follow me on the Twitter using @TopTopTips will have made some money over the weekend though and also a small bit on the Champions League so far.
Week Fifteen
Total - Win 2.35 points.
Week Sixteen
Total - Win 2.3 points.
Running Total - Up 6.39 points.
Music this week from Above Them with Give It Up To Start Again, Leeds based band who are very good live.
Swansea v Norwich, Saturday 1500
Two of last season's promoted sides meet in Wales this weekend. Swansea are under new management with Michael Laudrup now the man in charge and attempting to build on the work Brendan Rodgers did in keeping them up last year. He has had a mixed start, as might be expected, due to some players leaving and him also wanting to bring in some players of his own to add a different element to the side. The most successful of these imports so far has been the Spaniard Michu. Touted as something of an unknown by a lot of the English-centric media, he was in fact last seasons top scoring midfielder in La Liga, but he was a bargain at £2million. He added to his burgeoning reputation last weekend by bagging a brace to beat Arsenal at the Emirates and push Swansea above the Gunners in the table too. Although that result was very good, they can be frustrated by a more tactically aware side than Arsenal as they do still like to play around, with Michu and fellow new boy Pablo Hernandes given licence to roam.
Norwich have looked every bit a tactically aware side in the last two months under new manager Chris Hughton. They some into this unbeaten in nine matches with a win over Manchester United a stand-out result for them. Since the centre back pairing of Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong have gotten used to each other they have looked a very assured duo and they repel most attacks. The tactical adjustment to see Wes Hoolahan behind Grant Holt and Anthony Pilkington able to cut in from wide has also seen a much swifter attack than under Paul Lambert. It has also seen the goals shared out a lot more with Hoolahan's set piece delivery also adding yet another dimension. I've been very impressed with Norwich of late and think they're being underestimated by the bookmakers at present.
Lay Swansea at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday 1330
I am in Manchester this weekend surrounded by my wonderful girlfriends family, who are all huge Man Utd fans! This being said, my Dad is a dyed in the wool Man City fan and I have always had a soft spot for the Blue side because of this. This leaves me bound to upset someone with this prediction, although I can assure you it is a purely betting led decision. For those who don't want to see me tipping against The Red Devils I would look away now...
Manchester City exited the Champions League this week with their bottoms well and truly spanked. My colleague at work is no admirer of Roberto Mancini to put it mildly, but I had previously defended him slightly because he had improved Mark Hughes team and won the league. I was aware of his previous poor record in European competition with Inter Milan though so I can no longer defend him from that. City were poor in every match they played and deserved to get nothing from their group. However comma in the Premier league they stand unbeaten and seem to be able to get something from every match. This, in my opinion, reflects the regression in quality in the English top flight in the past few seasons, but that's for another day. They are solid enough when Mancini doesn't tinker and certainly possess enough attacking threat to worry any side in England, United included.
Manchester United had already qualified from their Champions League group so took the decision to field a young and inexperienced side who lost at home to Cfr Cluj. This was largely a measure taken to rest key players for the Manchester derby and a chance to pull away from City in the title race. The problem with this is that they haven't looked tired to me particularly, just not good enough in some key areas to comfortably beat the very best. I always criticise their midfield, but for a reason. Michael Carrick has a purpose, but needs a far stronger partner than United currently possess. Antonio Valencia can be effective, but is a one trick pony. Anderson needs some serious fitness advice, although I still think he has talent. Nani appears to be on his way out. Ashley Young is not good enough for a top level side. They are being pulled through matches by Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie too often and this won't keep working. I don't see them being the side to halt City's unbeaten run, although I doubt they'll be blown away as City aren't playing the greatest stuff either of late.
Lay Manchester United at 2.95. 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca, Sunday 1100
Most of you will have noticed a pattern emerging somewhat in my Spanish tipping, namely that I have followed Levante for almost a year now! This is because although they have proven themselves in that time to be the most consistent side outside of the top three, they are still priced like everyone else in the betting. I don't think this is right and I'm ahppy to keep following them, particularly at home where they are exceptionally hard to beat.
Back Levante at 2.05 with Bet365.
Inter Milan v Napoli, Sunday 1945
Just the one from Italy's Serie A as ever this weekend. I've gone for possibly the biggest match though between the two potential challengers to reigning champions Juventus. Inter Milan had been in a great run after a slow start that had seen them rise to second in the table and ending Juventus's long unbeaten run in Turin with a well deserved victory. The young manager Andrea Stramaccioni should take an awful lot of credit for all this as he has proven himself well able to handle the ego's amongst the players and owners of the notoriously unstable club. Unfortunately it seems Inter have decided things were going too well and have chucked a Wesley Sneijder shaped spanner in the works. The Dutchmen has always been a prickly character, but an undoubted talent, and this has shown in his current contract negotiations. Inter desperately want him to take a pay cut and he, understandably, does not want to. This has led to various levels of management criticising him in public and has coincided with a noticeable drop in performances as the players seem distracted. With him also missing from the side Diego Milito's rejuvenation is put on hold with him receiving a much worse supply of balls.
Napoli seem able to get at the leaders of the table, but then falter at the critical moment. To credit the owner and manager though, they have come an awful long way in the past five years. A mixture of investment and the signings and tactics of manager Walter Mazzari have seen them move from a mid-table side to title challengers. And with their best talent often sold on for large profits this is no mean feat. They have so far resisted the temptation to sell star striker Edinson Cavani and I can see why. He is one of a dying breed of strikers who are in the mould of doing things themselves, most now seem to be 'forwards' who prefer to start away from goal and move in. Cavani provides a target and no lack of goals either. Napoli play a tighter game away from home, as can be seen in only five conceded in seven, and I think they can frustrate a failing Inter side.
Lay Inter Milan at 2.4 on Betfair. 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
Stuttgart had what has become a traditional very poor start to the Bundesliga season, but they have managed to turn their form around enough to be in upper mid-table now. They certainly have the talent with players like Vedad Ibisevic and Zdravko Kuzmanovic in the ranks to be making a challenge for European football. It is also to their credit that they stuck with coach Bruno Labbadia as there were certainly calls to remove him after three seasons of poor starts. He may well have taken them as far as he can though so I would expect the calls to mount again at some point. Anyway, they have won the last two matches and should be on something of a high, but with only three clean sheets all season they may well be worried about Schalke's forward line.
As mentioned Schalke have something of a fearsome forward line that is currently not firing on all cylinders and has led to some good profits for followers on here and twitter of late. They have not won in four matches now and there have been murmurings from the squad that they are shattered from a long season last time and now the same again here whilst battling and qualifying in the Champions League on top of the league program. The Xmas break cannot come soon enough for most of the squad. They still look deflated and I'll oppose them once again here.
Back Stuttgart at 2.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz 05, Sunday 1430
Another team I followed for a while last season and have been on lately are Monchengladbach. They have completely revamped their style of play in the absence of last seasons star man Marco Reus and it seems to be beginning to bear fruit. Reus has shown his quality at Dortmund already and Gladback relied heavily on him to sneak wins in matches where they simply defended and gave him the ball. This season has seen them go from 1-0 merchants to possibly the most entertaining side in a very entertaining league. The reason I've liked them recently is that they have tightened up a little at the back soon to add to a more rounded attack. They're unbeaten in three and against a side who don't enjoy their travels.
Mainz have also featured heavily in columns this season and last as they are a fairly reliable side and definitely so at home. They seem well set to feature around the European spots for the next few seasons as they don't rely on any one player, but rather a system of hard work and pressing. This means that as long as they replace players and bring in new bodies who buy into this work ethic they will give every other side a tough match. Unfortunately for them their away form is their achilles heel. They go won two, drawn two and lost four away from home so far and look much more shaky and unwilling to enforce their gameplan on their travels. They meet a side in good nick and will struggle here I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach Draw No Bet at 1.72 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1400
A mid table match up to start us off in this weeks Super Lig. Home form is often all important in some of the more minor leagues around and that is definitely the case for most of the Super Lig. Gaziantepspor are one of these sides who are kept out of danger by a good home record. This season has been no different, although a lot of that is because they throw it all in for three points instead of a draw. This has left them with no draws so far, but rather four wins and three defeats in front of their own fans. They have a healthy eleven goals for them in those matches, and remember it is a very tight division outside of the giants, and only eight conceded too. They're unbeaten in three and looking good at present.
Karabukspor celebrated a brilliant win at Galatasaray a couple of weeks ago, but that performance was very much a one off when looked at with the rest of their form. They have shifted a huge amount of goals away from home so far, eighteen in seven matches is appalling, and find themselves in a relegation scrap. It's a decent attack against a poor defence with home advantage playing well into it.
Back Gaziantepspor at 2.1 with StanJames. 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1700
This one is a bit of a punt so bear with me...
Fener have an excellent home record so far this season and part of this as I see it is due to teams turning up already beaten mentally. This sees them able to attack at will and score plenty of goals. But, this also naturally leaves them exposed at the back to any side that can be bothered to have a go. I see Istanbul BB as such a side. They, along with Mersin Idman, have bucked the home record trend in Turkey in the last six months by actually being better away from home. They attack sides thinking that they can disrupt them and go after a game knowing the home sides probably don't expect it and leave gaps. I'm not sure they'll get anything, but we should see plenty of goals regardless.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1 with William Hill. 2 points.
Week Fifteen
Total - Win 2.35 points.
Week Sixteen
Total - Win 2.3 points.
Running Total - Up 6.39 points.
Music this week from Above Them with Give It Up To Start Again, Leeds based band who are very good live.
Swansea v Norwich, Saturday 1500
Two of last season's promoted sides meet in Wales this weekend. Swansea are under new management with Michael Laudrup now the man in charge and attempting to build on the work Brendan Rodgers did in keeping them up last year. He has had a mixed start, as might be expected, due to some players leaving and him also wanting to bring in some players of his own to add a different element to the side. The most successful of these imports so far has been the Spaniard Michu. Touted as something of an unknown by a lot of the English-centric media, he was in fact last seasons top scoring midfielder in La Liga, but he was a bargain at £2million. He added to his burgeoning reputation last weekend by bagging a brace to beat Arsenal at the Emirates and push Swansea above the Gunners in the table too. Although that result was very good, they can be frustrated by a more tactically aware side than Arsenal as they do still like to play around, with Michu and fellow new boy Pablo Hernandes given licence to roam.
Norwich have looked every bit a tactically aware side in the last two months under new manager Chris Hughton. They some into this unbeaten in nine matches with a win over Manchester United a stand-out result for them. Since the centre back pairing of Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong have gotten used to each other they have looked a very assured duo and they repel most attacks. The tactical adjustment to see Wes Hoolahan behind Grant Holt and Anthony Pilkington able to cut in from wide has also seen a much swifter attack than under Paul Lambert. It has also seen the goals shared out a lot more with Hoolahan's set piece delivery also adding yet another dimension. I've been very impressed with Norwich of late and think they're being underestimated by the bookmakers at present.
Lay Swansea at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday 1330
I am in Manchester this weekend surrounded by my wonderful girlfriends family, who are all huge Man Utd fans! This being said, my Dad is a dyed in the wool Man City fan and I have always had a soft spot for the Blue side because of this. This leaves me bound to upset someone with this prediction, although I can assure you it is a purely betting led decision. For those who don't want to see me tipping against The Red Devils I would look away now...
Manchester City exited the Champions League this week with their bottoms well and truly spanked. My colleague at work is no admirer of Roberto Mancini to put it mildly, but I had previously defended him slightly because he had improved Mark Hughes team and won the league. I was aware of his previous poor record in European competition with Inter Milan though so I can no longer defend him from that. City were poor in every match they played and deserved to get nothing from their group. However comma in the Premier league they stand unbeaten and seem to be able to get something from every match. This, in my opinion, reflects the regression in quality in the English top flight in the past few seasons, but that's for another day. They are solid enough when Mancini doesn't tinker and certainly possess enough attacking threat to worry any side in England, United included.
Manchester United had already qualified from their Champions League group so took the decision to field a young and inexperienced side who lost at home to Cfr Cluj. This was largely a measure taken to rest key players for the Manchester derby and a chance to pull away from City in the title race. The problem with this is that they haven't looked tired to me particularly, just not good enough in some key areas to comfortably beat the very best. I always criticise their midfield, but for a reason. Michael Carrick has a purpose, but needs a far stronger partner than United currently possess. Antonio Valencia can be effective, but is a one trick pony. Anderson needs some serious fitness advice, although I still think he has talent. Nani appears to be on his way out. Ashley Young is not good enough for a top level side. They are being pulled through matches by Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie too often and this won't keep working. I don't see them being the side to halt City's unbeaten run, although I doubt they'll be blown away as City aren't playing the greatest stuff either of late.
Lay Manchester United at 2.95. 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca, Sunday 1100
Most of you will have noticed a pattern emerging somewhat in my Spanish tipping, namely that I have followed Levante for almost a year now! This is because although they have proven themselves in that time to be the most consistent side outside of the top three, they are still priced like everyone else in the betting. I don't think this is right and I'm ahppy to keep following them, particularly at home where they are exceptionally hard to beat.
Back Levante at 2.05 with Bet365.
Inter Milan v Napoli, Sunday 1945
Just the one from Italy's Serie A as ever this weekend. I've gone for possibly the biggest match though between the two potential challengers to reigning champions Juventus. Inter Milan had been in a great run after a slow start that had seen them rise to second in the table and ending Juventus's long unbeaten run in Turin with a well deserved victory. The young manager Andrea Stramaccioni should take an awful lot of credit for all this as he has proven himself well able to handle the ego's amongst the players and owners of the notoriously unstable club. Unfortunately it seems Inter have decided things were going too well and have chucked a Wesley Sneijder shaped spanner in the works. The Dutchmen has always been a prickly character, but an undoubted talent, and this has shown in his current contract negotiations. Inter desperately want him to take a pay cut and he, understandably, does not want to. This has led to various levels of management criticising him in public and has coincided with a noticeable drop in performances as the players seem distracted. With him also missing from the side Diego Milito's rejuvenation is put on hold with him receiving a much worse supply of balls.
Napoli seem able to get at the leaders of the table, but then falter at the critical moment. To credit the owner and manager though, they have come an awful long way in the past five years. A mixture of investment and the signings and tactics of manager Walter Mazzari have seen them move from a mid-table side to title challengers. And with their best talent often sold on for large profits this is no mean feat. They have so far resisted the temptation to sell star striker Edinson Cavani and I can see why. He is one of a dying breed of strikers who are in the mould of doing things themselves, most now seem to be 'forwards' who prefer to start away from goal and move in. Cavani provides a target and no lack of goals either. Napoli play a tighter game away from home, as can be seen in only five conceded in seven, and I think they can frustrate a failing Inter side.
Lay Inter Milan at 2.4 on Betfair. 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
Stuttgart had what has become a traditional very poor start to the Bundesliga season, but they have managed to turn their form around enough to be in upper mid-table now. They certainly have the talent with players like Vedad Ibisevic and Zdravko Kuzmanovic in the ranks to be making a challenge for European football. It is also to their credit that they stuck with coach Bruno Labbadia as there were certainly calls to remove him after three seasons of poor starts. He may well have taken them as far as he can though so I would expect the calls to mount again at some point. Anyway, they have won the last two matches and should be on something of a high, but with only three clean sheets all season they may well be worried about Schalke's forward line.
As mentioned Schalke have something of a fearsome forward line that is currently not firing on all cylinders and has led to some good profits for followers on here and twitter of late. They have not won in four matches now and there have been murmurings from the squad that they are shattered from a long season last time and now the same again here whilst battling and qualifying in the Champions League on top of the league program. The Xmas break cannot come soon enough for most of the squad. They still look deflated and I'll oppose them once again here.
Back Stuttgart at 2.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz 05, Sunday 1430
Another team I followed for a while last season and have been on lately are Monchengladbach. They have completely revamped their style of play in the absence of last seasons star man Marco Reus and it seems to be beginning to bear fruit. Reus has shown his quality at Dortmund already and Gladback relied heavily on him to sneak wins in matches where they simply defended and gave him the ball. This season has seen them go from 1-0 merchants to possibly the most entertaining side in a very entertaining league. The reason I've liked them recently is that they have tightened up a little at the back soon to add to a more rounded attack. They're unbeaten in three and against a side who don't enjoy their travels.
Mainz have also featured heavily in columns this season and last as they are a fairly reliable side and definitely so at home. They seem well set to feature around the European spots for the next few seasons as they don't rely on any one player, but rather a system of hard work and pressing. This means that as long as they replace players and bring in new bodies who buy into this work ethic they will give every other side a tough match. Unfortunately for them their away form is their achilles heel. They go won two, drawn two and lost four away from home so far and look much more shaky and unwilling to enforce their gameplan on their travels. They meet a side in good nick and will struggle here I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach Draw No Bet at 1.72 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1400
A mid table match up to start us off in this weeks Super Lig. Home form is often all important in some of the more minor leagues around and that is definitely the case for most of the Super Lig. Gaziantepspor are one of these sides who are kept out of danger by a good home record. This season has been no different, although a lot of that is because they throw it all in for three points instead of a draw. This has left them with no draws so far, but rather four wins and three defeats in front of their own fans. They have a healthy eleven goals for them in those matches, and remember it is a very tight division outside of the giants, and only eight conceded too. They're unbeaten in three and looking good at present.
Karabukspor celebrated a brilliant win at Galatasaray a couple of weeks ago, but that performance was very much a one off when looked at with the rest of their form. They have shifted a huge amount of goals away from home so far, eighteen in seven matches is appalling, and find themselves in a relegation scrap. It's a decent attack against a poor defence with home advantage playing well into it.
Back Gaziantepspor at 2.1 with StanJames. 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1700
This one is a bit of a punt so bear with me...
Fener have an excellent home record so far this season and part of this as I see it is due to teams turning up already beaten mentally. This sees them able to attack at will and score plenty of goals. But, this also naturally leaves them exposed at the back to any side that can be bothered to have a go. I see Istanbul BB as such a side. They, along with Mersin Idman, have bucked the home record trend in Turkey in the last six months by actually being better away from home. They attack sides thinking that they can disrupt them and go after a game knowing the home sides probably don't expect it and leave gaps. I'm not sure they'll get anything, but we should see plenty of goals regardless.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1 with William Hill. 2 points.
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