All Good Things Must End...

But, not around here just yet! We're clinging on to about as even as you can get last weekend! More than anything I hope it shows that over the past two seasons of doing this column I have learnt from my mistakes and improved my selections. I think it also shows the benefits of working on assigning points to the 'value' in each bet. My theory was always that the way to make long term profit was to look for value bets and hopefully this will be proven come the end of the season and into the future.

Week 27

Reading v Wigan - Lose 2 points.

Norwich v Everton - Win 1.8 points.

Celta Vigo v Granada - Lose 2 points.

Atalanta v Roma - Win 3.02 points.

Hannover v Hamburg - Win 3 points.

Monchengladbach v Dortmund - Lose 2 points.

Istanbul BB v Eskisehirspor - Win 1.72 points.

Sivasspor v Besiktas - Lose 2.5 points.

Totals - Up 0.04 points.

Running Total - Up 49.64 points.

My musical selection this week is from Vic Ruggiero with A Lovely Beginning.

Everton v Reading, Saturday 1500

Everton traditionally start seasons slowly and are forced to embark on a turnaround after Xmas to see them into the European spots. However comma this season they have seemingly gone the opposite direction and charged out of the blocks, only to tail off from winter onwards. This was originally put down to them missing the talismanic presence of Marouane Fellaini after he picked up a suspension during this period, but the lethargy of performances has still continued with his return to the side. A lot of the focus has been on Nikola Jelavic after his disappointing form since October, but the whole side looks stale to me. They've never been blessed with great flair so if the effort drops they're far from unbeatable. They may have picked up a 3-1 win against Oldham on Tuesday night, but they were given some scares by a side languishing in League 2 at the moment to put it in perspective. Looking back through previous results they have also only been ahead at half time in one of the last ten matches. All this in mind makes them look a very short price.

Reading looked like they might well embark on the sort of second half of the season run that they did in their last two seasons in the Championship going into the new year. They were battling back from seemingly lost games and with Adam Le Fondre coming off the bench they looked threatening. Possibly due to this knowledge of their tactics though they have been somewhat stopped in their tracks of late. They have lost their last two matches, although a physical encounter at the Britannia Stadium against Stoke was possibly the one match all season that suited them least. Last weekends 3-0 loss at home to Wigan though will need a response as they are a side they can't afford to let escape from them in the relegation battle. This match is a chance to get a morale boosting point or three.

Lay Everton at 1.43 on Betfair. 2 points.

Sunderland v Fulham, Saturday 1500

I think there's an excellent price to be had here, although I understand the reasons behind it. Sunderland have not won in four matches now after a few good results pulled them out of the real relegation scrap. But, if you look at the last four matches the Mackems have played it is not an easy run. They drew at home to an excellent Swansea side 0-0, they lost 2-1 away at Reading when they were still rolling, lost at home 0-1 to an Arsenal side on a good day and then were beaten 2-1 away at WBA last weekend. The other thing you'll notice is that even in a poor run, Sunderland have not been soundly beaten. A trademark of Martin O'Neill sides has been that they are hard to beat and this has continued in his Sunderland reign. Confidence should not have been too harshly damaged due to being close in every match as well as the fact I still retain confidence in O'Neill as a motivator.

Generally I'm no huge fan of historical data when weighing up a bet, but sometimes things are too clear to ignore. Fulham's away form comes into this category. They have now been through some perfectly capable managers and not one of them was able to turn this around. Martin Jol's name can now be added to that list it seems. They go won two, drawn five and lost six so far on their travels this season to make it only ten wins since the start of the 2009/10 season on the road. In this time they have had some excellent players, and Dimitar Berbatov amongst the best of them this season, but no matter the personnel they cannot turn this form around. Bearing this in mind and what should be a tough game they look a touch too short to me.

Lay Fulham at 3.4 on Betfair. 2.5 points.

Tottenham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600

The match with the most at stake this weekend is the North London derby. Tottenham have a four point lead over their neighbours heading into this match and will want to extend it as much as possible with the hunt for the third automatic qualifying spot for the Champions League up for grabs. After the abuse Andres Villas Boas took in much of the press at the start of the season for not being Harry Redknapp and upsetting Chelsea's delicate little lambs John Terry and Frank Lampard, it must be very satisfying. When you also take into account he has been somewhat handicapped in the transfer market by Redknapp's large contracts dished out to ageing players he has done a truly exceptional job. Then there's Gareth Bale. I'll admit that I have been arguing that he's not as good as the press would love to believe, but there's no ignoring his contributions lately. Eight goals in his last six games have gone a long way to keep Tottenham near the peak of the table when players like Emanuel Adebayor have looked disinterested. His presence alone should be giving Arsenal something to think about.

Arsenal are not having the best season of Wenger's reign, but I still have an element of sympathy for the levels of abuse he gets at times. There is clearly an agenda at Arsenal that considers making a profit as a success for the club as a whole and Wenger has bought into that for better or worse. That the club again reported a large profit just this week and are by no means out of the race for the Champions League qualifying spots means that the board will be likely to view it as an ok season all in. The problem comes with the fans having seen all conquering sides not that long ago and not coming to terms with the fact that others have caught up on scouting and have considerably more wealth. I think Wenger has numerous faults, not least a seeming refusal to adapt to a changing landscape, but who would do better is quite a question. I think the Bale factor has to tip this one well in the home sides favour so I'll have to be against the Gunners.

Back Tottenham at 2.4 with StanJames. 2 points.

Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1900

I was going to back Real Madrid earlier in the week at above 3.2, but they're in to 3.0 at the biggest now. With the La Liga title all but out of reach and an important midweek Champions League match with Manchester United on Wednesday I can't trust them to get the job done.

So I am turning to an old favourite side for this weekends Spanish selection, Osasuna. As I have mentioned before there is generally some value to be found in opposing 'name' sides in foreign leagues if there is good reason too. The weight of any money on these matches will be from casual punters in the main and they're much more likely to back a 'name' in a match, meaning the odds stay long on the underdog. Osasuna are as close to Stoke City as you will find in Spain with an emphasis on making a trip to their ground as intimidating as possible. They're a rough side who don't go in for pointless passing combinations when a good old punt will give them a chance for a scramble in the goalmouth. They started the season terribly, but are now up to mid-table on the back of returning to their home form of seasons passed. They go won five, drawn five and lost four at home and have scored twelve and only conceded eight in those matches.

Athletic Bilbao are on a monumental comedown after the achievements of last season. The side that knocked Man Utd out of the Europa League before losing the final has been a shadow following the sale of Javi Martinez to Bayern Munich and with Fernando Llorente reduced to sitting out before his summer move to Juventus. I've mentioned before the fact that Marcelo Bielsa is a tough manager to get on with for a prolonged period and this has been proven here, the strange thing is that he is even still in Bilbao. They are still not safe from relegation at all and a poor away record is a large contributor to this. They go won two, drawn three and lost seven whist scoring fourteen and conceding thirty. They'll find it tough to create chances in this one and will likely give Osasuna enough to punish them.

Back Osasuna at 2.4 with Coral. 2 points.

Catania v Inter Milan, Sunday 1400

The big match in Serie A this weekend is definitely the Napoli v Juventus match on Friday night. Whilst it is always tempting to pick a bet in the biggest matches it takes discipline to stay away if there's nothing there to grab you. Three weeks ago I would have been happy to lay Juventus as favs in this match, but Napoli are showing signs the pressure of actually being involved in a title race is getting to them with some poor results failing to take advantage of Juventus' slips. There's probably some value in the draw as neither will want to lose.

So, the match I am picking is again with my favourite Serie A side for betting this season, Catania, hosting Inter Milan. I thought that Catania's home form might well have tailed off and seen them drop to a comfortable mid-table position, but all credit to them as they seem to be going for a Europa League spot for next season. The side from Sicily were expected to struggle once manager Vincenzo Montella departed for Fiorentina, but they have actually improved and that is down to a home record the equal or better of many an established side. They go nine wins, two draws and two defeats in Sicily, scoring twenty one and only conceding ten. This goals against record is the equal second best in the table with Fiorentina, only behind the leaders Juventus.

Inter Milan have been a patchy side all season, with short bursts of amazing matches followed by a few weeks in the doldrums. This is probably to be expected in something of a transitional period for the club a couple of years after the highs of their treble win under Jose Mourinho. With many of the big names shipped out since to cut costs, and average age, there is a mixture of young players (and manager), very old heads and those that are probably done with the game. It is no wonder with all this upheaval that form has been non-existent. Their away form reads won six, drawn just one and lost six with nineteen scored and eighteen conceded. With Diego Milito now out injured again I wouldn't fancy them in a tough match like this.

Lay Inter Milan at 3.3 on Betfair. 2.5 points.

Borussia Dortmund v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430

I can't see any obvious value around in the Bundesliga this weekend so I'm going to take something of a punt on this one.

My thinking is that with a Champions League Last 16 tie in the balance at home to Shakhtar in the week, Dortmund will be saving their best players in the knowledge that the title is out of reach for them now. They have also actually been better away this season with three of their four losses coming at home so far. With key attackers like Lewandowski, Blaszcykowski and Reus all likely to play little or no part in this one they will be very likely to struggle for goals. The problem for them in the Bundesliga this season has been that they don't have back-up for the first choice players of anywhere near the same quality and they are struggling to go all out for two competitions.

Hannover are a column favourite due to the fact they rarely have an awful match and so can be bet upon with some confidence, particularly at home. Their away record so far this season is poor for a side with European aspirations with two wins, a draw and eight defeats so far. They have scored eighteen, which isn't too bad, but conceded twenty seven is those eleven matches. I said it was a long shot, but if Dortmund's best attackers are missing and with key centre back Mats Hummels also likely to be rested after an injury Hannover have a chance.

Lay Borussia Dortmund at 1.35 on Betfair. 1.5 points.

Eskisehirspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700

First up in the Super Lig this weekend is Eskisehirspor hosting leaders Galatasaray. Eskisehir have been a very strong side at home for a few seasons now and this has not changed this term either, although a poor start to the season has made the stats read slightly skewed. They go won five, drawn four and lost two at home so far and have scored twenty and conceded just thirteen. They had been struggling for goals in previous seasons so the goals for column must be particularly pleasing for them. They haven't been on top form since the winter break, but have still only been beaten once in the last six matches at present. They have also kept clean sheets in three of six to show they are still as tight at the back as ever.

I am still hugely disappointed in this Galatasaray side from their Champions League match with Schalke. The reigning Turkish champions had made a statement of intent by signing both Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba on huge contracts with the presumed intention of making a decent fist of the Champions League. What the club seemed to forget is that their defence is appalling and in far greater need of aid. If anything the signing of Sneijder in particular has unbalanced the side in the same way his presence had at Inter since Jose Mourinho's departure. He seems to think he's earned a choice of position and wants the old number ten role of simply hovering and waiting to pick passes. Sadly increased player fitness means he gets less time on the ball having been closed down, and most players are unfamiliar with a system to accommodate such a role. Drogba on the other hand looked a class above everyone else on the pitch in every match he has played. They came back from 2-0 down to win 4-2 at home to a desperately out of form Orduspor side last weekend, but I think this shows how vulnerable they are at times and this is a tough match.

Lay Galatasaray at 2.09 on Betfair. 2 points.

Kayserispor v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Sunday 1130

I will very rarely put up an odds on shot in Turkey as I don't feel any side, barring Gala at home, are to be trusted at short odds. However, I am going to break from that this week as I still think there's some value in this bet. Kayserispor currently lie comfortably mid-table and will be pleased with that. They are still only two points off the side in the Europa League qualifying spot and should still harbour hopes of a push for a European spot. Their home record is particularly excellent so far and reads won five, drawn four and lost two with thirteen scored and just seven conceded. That goals against column is absolutely amazing to me for a side who you would put as maybe the ninth or tenth best side in the division at the start of the season. They actually lost both those two matches in October too, so they're unbeaten at home four months.

Mersin Idman Yurdu were a side worth taking the occasional punt on when away from home last season as they were going for a win in every match, and got some good results in doing so. Unfortunately this season they sit bottom of the table and look doomed to spend next season in the Bank Asya Lig. Their away form is hopeless with no wins, two draws and seven losses with ten goals scored and twenty two conceded. In a low scoring league like Turkey getting ten away from home in nine matches in not bad, but it probably shows that they're still attacking when their defence isn't up to preventing the opposition taking advantage.

Back Kayserispor at 1.8 with Coral. 2 points.

Ticking Along Nicely...

Another weekend with only minimal profits, but that keeps us ticking over very nicely. Those of you that follow @TopTopTips on Twitter will also have the chance to add/lose more too. Last night's Champions League matches being the first time I've had a plain losing day in a while now. It hurt, but these things will happen, it pays to remember we are 'gambling' at the end of the day.

Week 26

Liverpool v Swansea - Lose 2 points.

Huddersfield v Wigan - Lose 2 points.

Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid - Lose 2 points.

Catania v Bologna - Win 2.1 points.

Fortuna Dusseldorf v Greuther Furth - Win 2.8 points.

Mainz 05 v Schalke 04 - Win 1.37 points.

Antalyaspor v Karabukspor - Win 2.3 points.

Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce - Win 1.39 points.

Totals - Win 3.96 points.

Running Total - Up 49.6 points.

Music this week from The Ramones with Sheena Is A Punk Rocker, a true classic!

Reading v Wigan, Saturday 1500

Wigan, I hate betting on Wigan. This one seems too good to miss though. Reading really struggled in the first half of the Premier League season and looked absolute certainties to be relegated back down to the Championship after just a season. Thanks to the takeover by a Russian millionaire they were linked with numerous big money players from that area like Andrei Arshavin in January to bolster the squad for a push up the table. However comma none of these 'big names' materialised and manager Brian McDermott invested in lower league players with a bit of fight and hunger, the right thing to do in my opinion. Results have also begun to turn around with the defence beginning to look a lot more sure-footed and the attack really threatening. The main threat in attack has without a doubt been the arrival of Adam Le Fondre in the latter stages of matches to prey on tiring opposition legs. He's no all round star, but he is a predator and is certainly grabbing some goals. The never-say-die attitude they have displayed in numerous comebacks also shows the spirit in the squad has not been dented and even if they take a while to get going they should have too much for Wigan.

Wigan again took my money last weekend by soundly beating Huddersfield away in the FA Cup. I've professed numerous times how much I dislike betting on games involving them, but I'll go back this time and if I'm undone again then they're back on the 'do not bet' list. They do have some players with excellent ability in their squad and this showed last weekend against a side towards the bottom of the division below. The likes of Jordi Gomez, James McCarthy and others certainly can pass a ball around, but they're not cut out for a relegation battle, and that's where Wigan find themselves time after time. They concede too many due to this constant lack of grit and they haven't had a regular goalscorer to give them some breathing room either, they'll be in the scrap again this season.

Back Reading at 2.7 with BetVictor. 2 points.

Norwich v Everton, Saturday 1500

Norwich have been very good to me over the past eighteen months, due in no small part to being underestimated by the bookmakers in their first season back in the Premier League. They have to rely on battling to get every point as they definitely do not have many players that you would consider 'Premier League quality', but they get on with this most weeks. Their only real cerebral player is Wesley Hoolahan, and the diminutive Irish international is the point where most attacking play goes through. The rest of the side is made up of players from the lower leagues and bargain buys from Premier League clubs like the central defensive pairing of Sebastien Bassong and Michael Turner. The basis of their tactics is that everyone has a role and they are pretty rigid about sticking to these roles, in many ways they are the anti-Wigan and the results they get seem to back this approach up. They're not in world beating form, but if they can deal with Everton's physical approach, and they should be able to match them, then they can get something from this match.

Everton are still in the hunt for the fourth Champions League spot, although they'd probably concede they'll be likely to fall short. They started the season in exceptional form and have experienced a couple of rough patches, one of which was recently. They now go for a very physical attacking approach with Nikola Jelavic out of form and the first eleven by starting with Victor Anichebe being backed up by Marouane Fellaini. These two are huge physical specimens and fully capable of bullying anyone who isn't on top of their game against them. Fortunately for Norwich they have two rather large centre backs themselves helped out by Alexander Tettey in defensive midfield to cope. Everton's problems of late have come at the back with Johnny Heitinga having been very poor. The Dutch international seems to always be a moment away from a dreadful error and they will need to be verycareful as Norwich do have a good winger in Anthony Pilkington who will expose him given the chance.

Lay Everton at 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.

Celta Vigo v Granada, Sunday 1600

This one jumped out at me immediately. You may have spotted me following Granada's recent good run so I will continue with that this weekend in La Liga. Celta Vigo didn't start the season too badly, but as time has worn on they look increasingly like a side more fitted to the Segunda division. They find themselves third bottom at the moment and struggling for any sort of result. Their home form is actually the only reason they aren't cut adrift, as they are wretched away from home, but they haven't won a home match since early January either. In fact they are now six matches without a win and have not scored more than once in any of those either. They look increasingly short of confidence and certain to be involved in the relegation scrap.

Granada weren't looking too hot themselves before the winter break, but have been excellent since the return to action in January. They are still bottom half of the La Liga table, but are a whole six points clear of the relegation spots and in good form, they will be hoping for a couple more results in this run to pull further clear. They beat Real Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna before losing from in front against Barcelona last weekend and should be full of confidence still after only being undone by Lionel Messi's continued brilliance. They go won four, drawn one and lost seven away from home, but the odds seem far too short on Celta Vigo to me.

Lay Celta Vigo at 1.9 on Betfair. 2 points.

Atalanta v Roma, Sunday 1400

Atalanta were a side I had my eye on for a while too due to an excellent home record in Serie A, but they seem to have been lacklustre of late. This has seen them drop down the table and they are now in fifteenth position of twenty sides. They should be clear of relegation worries, but they could yet get dragged in if they continue as they are. Their home form reads won five, drawn three and lost four so far with twelve scored fourteen conceded. It's easy to pick out that a lack of goals is making them susceptible to losses as they will struggle to get two if they concede even one. Their last home in was in early December and they've played five since then at home and have in fact only got one win away at the awful Palermo in their last nine matches. A side completely out of form.

Roma dispensed with manager Zdenek Zeman recently after he failed to get them back to the all out attacking, team-destroying unit they were in his first spell at the club. He had sorted out them as an attacking force, but had alienated Daniele De Rossi as well as leaving the side hopelessly exposed at the back. He's made no secret of his approach being to always try and score more than the opposition though so really the Roma hierachy shouldn't have been too surprised. Aurelio Andreazolli has been given the managers role for now after being in the back up staff for a number of years and seems to have the side ticking over nicely. There's plenty of talented players there so if he organises the defence better and reinstalls a bit of dressing room harmony they should do much better. A brilliant win against Juventus last weekend should give them a boost.

Back Roma at 2.51 at Pinnacle Sports. 2 points.

Hannover 96 v Hamburg, Saturday 1430

Hannover are one of the sides in Germany that feature most regularly in this column. They are exactly the sort of side I like to be on the side of when the odds are appealing. They're a good side, consistent and have an excellent home record. If you can spot small runs of form for sides with quality players then that can be very profitable, and I try to, but reliability is key I think to long term gains. Hannover fit the bill when they're at home as they're plenty good enough to make even the best Bundesliga sides work for any points they get when visiting. This season so far they go seven wins, two draws and two losses at home with twenty three scored and fourteen conceded. In the Bundesliga both of those are excellent records and they haven't lost at home since mid-November.

Hamburg were a lay nearly every week last season for me as they were being priced on name alone a lot of the time when their form was such that they were very nearly relegated. If you look at the side they had then it was also very apparent there was no quality there at all either. This season started off just as poorly and the board stepped in to appoint a new manager and bring back huge crowd favourite Rafael Van Der Vaart to give the whole place a boost. This seems to have worked wonders as Hamburg are now within striking distance of a Europa League spot for next season. Their away form goes won three, drawn three and lost five so far with thirteen scored and fifteen conceded. I think they're to be opposed here.

Back Hannover 96 at 2.5 with Bet365. 2 points.

Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Sunday 1430

The battle of the Borussia's! Both sides are also still involved in UEFA competitions as I right this too with Monchengladbach due to play away at Lazio this evening. Monchen have been a very hit and miss side this season after taking a much more attacking approach to matches following the sale of star man Marco Reus to Dortmund over the summer. Last season they were able to defend in numbers and count on Reus scoring the goals to win them tight matches. With him out of the team though they seem to now be going for a more all round attacking approach which has seen some great and terrible results so far. They do go five wins, three draws and just two losses at home so far with nineteen scored and thirteen conceded. This seems to suggest that the attacking is not quite as much of a thing at home where opponents are less likely to attack and leave space to exploit. They have actually won three of the last four at home with just 3-3 thriller with Leverkusen as the draw.

Borussia Dortmund's focus for this season has clearly been the Champions League, and they are well positioned to go through to the Quarter Finals after a 2-2 draw away at Shakhtar Donetsk last week. This has led to them being fifteen points behind Bayern Munich in the league though and they have particularly suffered after midweek matches. They have actually won four from five since the winter break though, with a horrible 4-1 loss at home to Hamburg the blot on their record. They've been scoring plenty and with a week off European football they may well look to get some confidence in the side with a resounding win. I think the money here has to be for goals. Dortmund have nothing to lose really and their best approach is to pour forward anyway.

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.78 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.

Istanbul BB v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1130

Firstly I would like to say how disappointed I was with Galatasaray in the Champions League this week, but those that watched it will know just how bad they were so I'll keep my opinions to myself! Suffice to say the Super Lig still has plenty of catching up to do in terms of tactics and discipline in the grander scheme of things.

On to the first match. Istanbul BB have at times looked a side with a chance of breaking into the top parts of the table and making a fist of getting into Europe. Unfortunately such is the disparity between the giants and the rest in Turkey it is likely to remain a dream without serious investment from outside. They used to have an excellent home record and they are still mostly hard to beat when on their own ground. A record of won three, drawn three and lost four may not look great on paper, but they've seldom been outclassed completely. They beat a perfectly good Bursaspor side 4-1 at home a fortnight ago to show the results they are capable of. That they followed this two losses on the spin goes to show they're not good enough for any length of time. This is purely a value bet though.

Eskisehirspor have a very good record in overall historical terms in Turkey and were a side I followed a lot when I was first looking at the Super Lig over two years ago. That season they were incredibly good at home and qualified for Europe. After a mixed start this season they really got going, but have recently fallen away again. A chronic problem of theirs had been a lack of goals, but they seem to have cleared that up now at the expense of a previously tight defence. They have only won two of the last nine and those were against sides even more out of form. I think they have to be opposed as decent favourites in this match.

Lay Eskisehirspor at 2.45 on Betfair. 2.5 points.

Sivasspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1700

Sivasspor went through some major upheaval the season before last with some strange foreign signings (including Darius Vassell!), but seemed to dispense with all that almost immediately and get back to basics. This served them well last season as they hovered around the top end of the table before settling down comfortably mid-table in the end. This season had a slow start, and the previous flow of goals stopping was a major factor, but now they seem back on track. Their home record stayed very good even with this slow start and reads won five, drawn four and lost just two with eighteen scored and thirteen conceded. They're figures of a side just below Euopean places and they're let down by a poorer away record. Since the winter break they have only won two matches, but there was an excellent 2-1 away victory at Fenerbahce which shows their quality.

There looked likely to be only one side capable of stopping Galatasaray retaining their Super Lig title before the winter break and that was Besiktas. Unfortunately since they returned the Istanbul giants have reverted to type and inconsistency seems very likely to deny them any sort of challenge. I will always be dubious of them at short prices as they are an incredibly flaky side and got my fingers burnt a couple of times in their good pre-winter run, but I stand by my assertion that over time those prices will be wrong. I've made enough money laying them to be confident of that. They're not bad away and have got a couple of wins since the break, but they've also started to show ill discipline and I don't think the price is justified in this.

Lay Besiktas at 2.35 on Betfair. 2.5 points.

Keeping Your Nose Above Water...

After the thrills of building a fantastic bank every week for the last seven, I'm afraid we'll have to console ourselves with a tiny profit this weekend! Mind you, that now means no losses for eight weeks for a free tips column. Not to get too cocky, but there's plenty of people out there who will charge a decent amount to give you tips offering little or no value at all. The way I want to do it is so that we can all have the fun of getting some bets on every week, but also to make us all some money. The only way I think that is viable is too look for an edge/value in the odds. It's all very well saying 'back Manchester United at home to QPR, they can't lose', and you'd be right most of the time. But, if the odds are way too short, you'll not have made enough money to cover the inevitable upset that WILL happen.

Week 25

Norwich v Fulham - Lose 2 points.

Sunderland v Arsenal - Lose 2 points.

Deportivo v Granada - Win 1.75 points.

Atalanta v Catania - Void

Hannover v Hoffenheim - Win 3.13 points.

Augsburg v Mainz - Win 1.39 points.

Karabukspor v Bursaspor - Lose 2 points.

Sivasspor v Trabzonspor - Win 1.37 points

Totals - Win 1.64 points.

Running Totals - Up 45.64 points.

Music this week from column favourite The Unseen with Paint It Black.

Liverpool v Swansea, Sunday 1600

Just one Premier League match this weekend with FA Cup matches on the agenda, but fortunately I think there's certainly a bet to be had. I was probably as bemused as anyone to see Brendan Rodgers describe Monday nights defeat at home to West Brom as 'the end of a terrific run'. Liverpool had won one in six before that and had been beaten by Oldham Athletic. I'll admit that at times since Daniel Sturridge's introduction they have shown signs of being a more threatening side, but they are a mid-table side now and make no mistake. The defence seems to have developed a worrying tendency to allow itself to be bullied by any sort of physical presence at all and the midfield offers very little help in that regard. Lucas Leiva's return to the side was trumpeted as a huge boost, but whilst he is undoubtably a nuisance, I don't think he adds much to this side. Steven Gerrard has again been the best performer for them, barring Luis Suarez, and that says it all after his struggles to adapt to the system early on in the season. How on earth they keep getting priced so short I don't know, but some idiots must still be backing them at the prices.

Swansea have kicked on since Brendan Rodgers moved to Anfield and Michael Laudrup came in to replace him. I've commented numerous times on who I think got the better end of that deal, and it's not the red half of Merseyside. The addition of some flair and goals to what was already a functional side at Swansea has seen them looking like an outside bet for Europe through their league position and odds on to win the League Cup and qualify that way anyway. Michu has been everyone's favourite addition to the side and ended his somewhat barren run with two goals against a woeful QPR side last weekend. They looked like they needed a confidence restoring win like that and should never be such long odds when they're a better overall side for me.

Lay Liverpool at 1.6 on Betfair. 2 points.

Huddersfield v Wigan, Sunday 1555

I've stated before I'm no lover of betting on friendlies or cup matches and that hasn't changed, although latter stages usually at least guarantee most sides are taking the cups seriously. This should be the case in the FA Cup matches this weekend, but there's an awful lot of short prices around. Probably justifiably so when you look at the draw. The only match that springs out to me is the trip Wigan have to Huddersfield. Huddersfield have appointed Mark Robins as manager this week after a season so far where they are only three points above the relegation places in the Championship. In his short managerial career so far though Robins seems to have promise. He had a good spell at Rotherham, did well at Barnsley for the most part and steadied Coventry too. I think he'll pull the Terriers to safety and a cup run continuing would really aid the spirit. There's not an awful lot of flair in the side, but against Wigan that may be a good thing.

Wigan have more important things to worry about than the FA Cup with them again in serious danger of relegation from the Premier League. They keep narrowly surviving, but with a lack of more than one truly dreadful side in the top division this year I think they'll fall. The manager Roberto Martinez gets his fair share of plaudits for trying to 'play the right way', but I would regard this as folly when it keeps putting them in danger. He might well do better with a better side, but I don't think a parting of ways would seriously harm either manager or club. I'd want a bit longer than their current odds to back them in this.

Lay Wigan at 2.12 on Betfair. 2 points.

Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 1800

The very definition of a mid-table side in La Liga this term is Valladolid. They're a solid side at home and get the odd result away to keep their heads above water. Their home form so far reads won five, drawn four and lost three. When two of those losses are to Real Madrid and Barcelona, and they gave a good account of themselves in both, you should see they're a very decent side. They've won two and drawn one at home since the winter break too to show they're still going well. Basically, they give anyone a match at their own ground.

Atletico Madrid are currently enjoying a season well ahead of city rivals Real Madrid in second position. They also seemed to have eliminated the inconsistencies that would see them look like world beaters one week and relegation candidates the next since Diego Simeone came in as manager. However comma since the end of December they're away form has unravelled a bit, leaving themselves in serious danger of being overtaken by Real. They've not won in six away from home, with four defeats in there too. Coming off a Europa League match on Thursday too I think you have to be against them in this.

Lay Atletico Madrid at 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.

Catania v Bologna, Sunday 1400

Slim pickings again in Serie A this week in terms of any sort of standout bet. Roma under new management could do better with more harmony so their match against Juventus is best left alone I think. A side I have mentioned a few times lately is Catania. For me they are the sort of side I like to keep an eye on for betting possibilities. They're no big name so in foreign leagues they can often slip under the radar of the odds compilers, or simply be left at appealing odds against the big boys as punters won't know to back them either. The reason I'm keen on them is their home form. They go eight wins, two draws and two defeats in Sicily so far, with the trip across the water not appealing to sides at all. They have also scored twenty (very good in Italy) and only conceded ten to show just how dominant they've been.

Bologna are more of a recognisable name to many outside of Italy, due to them having been in Serie A for a good proportion of the last decade or two. They look safely away from the relegation spots at present, but they seem to be more likely to drop to Serie B than to push towards Europe these days. They've ground out results at home to keep them away from the drop zone, but their away form is not good at all. They have won three and lost nine with no draws so far on the road and that's dreadful. Although one of those wins was just a fortnight ago, it was against the bottom side Pescara who look miles from a top division side.

Back Catania at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.

Fortuna Dusseldorf v Greuther Furth, Saturday 1430

This match looks the pick of the bunch in betting terms in the Bundesliga this weekend to me. Both sides were promoted over the summer and both still harbour fears of returning to the Bundesliga II at this stage of the season. But, Fortuna Dusseldorf have far more chance of staying up due to one of the better home records in the bottom half of the table. They go four wins, four draws and three defeats with seventeen both scored and conceded. They lost two of those defeats back-to-back in October for nine goals to Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg in a terrible week for them. If you remove those and put them down to one useless week though, your left with a good home record. I'm happy to do so in this one.

Greuther Furth are bottom of the table and almost certain to be relegated with a paltry twelve points so far from twenty one matches. They simply look miles out of their depth at this level and only thirteen goals scored in those matches tells its own story about where there major flaw is. They've actually got their only two wins when on their travels, but they were both against sides in the worst spells of their seasons and I think the odds on the home side are generous.

Back Fortuna Dusseldorf at 2.4 at BetVictor. 2 points.

Mainz 05 v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430

The odds on Mainz are shortening in this as I write so get on as quick as you can would be my advice! They have been involved in the European places now for a number of seasons thanks to the work of Jurgen Klopp and now Thomas Tuchel. Both of these appointments were seen as brave at the time, but the board have been proven to have an excellent eye for a coach in both instances. Klopp established the hard-working, pressing style most are now familiar with in his Borussia Dortmund side and Tuchel has carried on in this vein. They have a very good home record of won six, drawn one and lost three so far with fourteen scored and just nine conceded. They're not prone to attacking, but they score enough to get the results they need.

Schalke have been a favourite lay of mine since the start of December when I spotted them unravelling. They were last seasons surprise package for many with the goals of Klaas-Jan Huntelaar firing them to third in the table and the Champions League knockout stages too. This season they have found it much harder going with Huntelaar subdued with no Raul beside him. This led to the sacking of coach Huub Stevens before the winter break, but they don't look loads better yet to me. In their last two matches they have been beaten at home by the dreadful Greuther Furth and thrashed 4-0 by Bayern Munich.

Lay Schalke at 3.2 on Betfair. 3 points.

Antalyaspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1700

Before the winter break I was following an Antalyaspor side who looked likely to be the surprise side in the Super Lig. Since they have returned though they have not looked the same side that beat Fenerbahce 3-1 away and was so lethal on the counter attack. In Turkey this is not unusual with the Istanbul giants having much bigger squads than everyone else and this eventually telling when injuries and tiredness set in for everybody else. As it is Antalya have been very good at home still, but have lost one of their last two in their own stadium as well as the last three away. They're out of form and look likely to drop down the table.

Karabukspor have been the side I've been following since the winter break and I think they've not been spotted as a side on the up yet by the odds compilers. They've grasped the attack when away fashion now so prevalent in Turkey and it has left them with an away record of won five, drawn one and lost five. They go for it and it usually goes one way or the other. They're actually also joint away scorers with twenty one in those eleven matches. Against an out of form Antalya I think they're worth a chance.

Lay Antalyaspor at 1.87 on Betfair. 2 points.

Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1700

This one is a tough one to call as Trabzonspor are under a new coach and Fenerbahce are not good at all away from home. But, the crucial thing for me all season when being against Trabzon is the lack of goals in the side. It might seem obvious but you can't win if you don't score and that often factors in my decision of whether to lay a side. In Trabzon's case they have completely failed to adjust to life without the now Galatasaray striker Burak Yilmaz and this has left them miles off the European spots. Their home record of won five, drawn three and lost three is ok, but they've only beaten the divisions poorest sides. This is good enough to keep a side out of trouble, but no good for a team as big as Trabzonspor.

Fenerbahce have failed in their quest to take back the Super Lig title from eternal rivals Galatasaray this season. They've even fallen behind the other big side from the capital, Besiktas. They have pulled themselves to within a win of Besiktas now though and will be keen to get at least second spot and a shot at Champions League football next season. They've not won many away from home with a record of won three, drawn five and lost two, but they're not easy to beat either. With Trabzon so short of goals I couldn't back them in this one.

Lay Trabzonspor at 2.8 on Betfair. 2.5 points.

The Runneth Continueth...

We're now at 7 weeks profit on the spin and looking good. A nice cushion to take us into the tail end of the season, and I'd like to think that the bets have become better along with my eye for value. This leads on to this weeks lesson; always keep learning. In gambling, as in life, you should analyse as much as possible good and bad things and attempt to improve going forward.

Week 24

Newcastle v Chelsea - Win 2.06 points.

Wigan v Southampton - Win 1.6 points.

Osasuna v Celta Vigo - Win 2.2 points.

Nurnberg v Monchengladbach - Lose 2 points.

Bayer Leverkusen v Dortmund - Win 2.4 points.

Besiktas v Karabukspor - Win 2.3 points.

Bursaspor v Galatasaray - Lose 2.5 points.

Totals - Win 6.06 points.

Running Total - Up 44 points.

Music from Living With Lions and My Dilemma.

Norwich v Fulham, Saturday 1500

A favourite team of mine at points both this season and last has been Norwich City. After a dreadful start under Chris Hughton this season they turned things round to the extent they embarked on a ten match unbeaten spell, before again struggling. This period of poor results seemed to come around the Xmas period when those in the Premier League with smaller squads will always feel the pressure of so many matches. Add in the fact that Norwich don't truly possess players of outstanding quality and it's not easy for them to get results when efforts are lacklustre. This period looks to me like it might well be easing though with a couple of better results again of late. I say of late, I really saw a much improved side against Spurs and QPR. Spurs have been excellent all season and were held to a fortunate 1-1 draw at Carrow Road before they restricted QPR to almost no chances at Loftus Road. I think they've got enough energy to assure themselves of safety in the coming weeks.

Fulham's horrendous away form is a huge weight around their necks, and has been for the previous three managers. Mark Hughes, Roy Hodgson and Martin Jol have all tried different approaches and different sides, but the one constant has been the dreadful form they've exhibited. I believe it is something like three wins away from Craven Cottage in three seasons, and they've really struggled in recent matches anyway. The loan signings Jol has made all have good pedigree, but they are not the sorts you would look to to grind out tough wins in hard matches. I think baring in mind this away form and Norwich's pick-up the home side look good odds.

Back Norwich City at 2.3 with BoyleSports. 2 points.

Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday 1500

Martin O'Neill's last two spells as a manager have showed that whilst he may no longer be one of the best in the business, his sides are generally tough to beat. He is generally inclined to only really go for a few goals in matches at home he is confident of being the better side in and this will not be one of those. This being said, only a very foolish manager would try to go at an Arsenal side who are still adept at picking teams off given the chance. The tactical approach I have mentioned has seen his side only conceding twelve goals in twelve home matches, which is a very good record for a side in a lower mid-table position. I also like the look of his new midfield signing Alfred N'Diaye from Bursaspor. The physically imposing midfielder looks an excellent prospect and already like he has taken to the Premier League in his four outings so far.

Arsenal have seemingly gone backwards in the past couple of seasons under Arsene Wenger. I will always have brilliant memories of the side he built around Patrick Vieira and Thierry Henry, but he looks increasingly out of touch at times. His refusal to change system, or bring in true top class players, used to look like a worthwhile crusade when so many excellent players were emerging from his youth sides. But barring the excellent Jack Wilshere, there has been very little to get excited about lately. Some of his signings have come in for undue criticism in my opinion, but they are nowhere near a top level side any more and are not be relied on in a tough away match at odds on for me.

Lay Arsenal at 1.91 on Betfair. 2 points.

Deportivo v Granada, Saturday 2100

There is again very little standing out to me in La Liga this week. I looked at backing Levante as I have done numerous times, but they look like they're generally old legs are creaking so I'll leave alone and monitor this week. The worst side in La Liga have been Deportivo La Coruna and they look set for a return to the Segunda division in the summer. They do have all three of their victories at home so far, but they have only one of those this year so far and have lost their last four matches.

Granada are the other 'feeder' club for Udinese, alongside Watford in England, and have won promotion and stayed up since the arrangement was agreed. They are by no means a great side, but they are possibly a goalscorer away from really pushing on towards the upper sections of the table. They've actually won three away matches and I think they're too long in this one.

Lay Deportivo La Coruna at 2.14 on Betfair. 2 points.

Atalanta v Catania, Sunday 1400

It's a simple question of home and away records for my only Serie A tip this weekend. Atalanta have possibly exceeded many expectations in Italy in the last season and a half by making themselves pretty comfortable in the countries top division. This has been built on the back of an excellent home record and being extremely tough to beat. Any side that comes to tehir stadium and emerges with a win will be certain to have earned it. They go five wins, two draws and four losses at home. In these matches they have also only conceded twelve goals, which should probably exclude the freak 5-1 mauling they took from Torino back in November. If we lose that result they concede less than a goal a game and that's an excellent starting point for a mid-table side.

Catania have been involved a couple of times recently on here as they also have built a reputation for being a fearsome prospect at home. They have already beaten Fiorentina, Roma and Lazio at their ground to climb to seventh in the table. However comma they have been let down by a poor away record which will be likely to prevent them from pushing any higher up the table and challenging for European football. They go won two, drawn three and lost six away from Sicily. They have also conceded a whopping twenty goals in those eleven matches. Taking into account Atalanta's defence and the chances the attackers are likely to get I think you have to be against Catania here.

Back Atalanta Draw No Bet at 1.61 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.

Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430

First up from the Bundesliga is a former column favourite side. Hannover have spent the last few seasons putting together a side who are very clear in their tactics and were very reliable to beta the teams they should and make it tough for the better sides, sometimes springing a shock. Unfortunately, this season their performances have dropped off bit and they are currently languishing in mid-table obscurity in tenth position. This has mostly been down to a real dip in away results though, their home form has remained excellent. In ten home matches they go six wins, two draws and two losses so far. They have gone for a fairly attacking tactical system at home which has seen them scoring twenty two goals in those ten matches and conceding fourteen. With any attacking formation there is an element of risk that you'll be caught out at the back, but so far it seems Hannover have struck a good balance. Since the winter break they have won their solitary home match and lost both away games. They should take great heart from the performances in those two away matches though, narrowly being on the wrong side of a 5-4 result at Schalke and also being beaten by two goal in the last five minutes last weekend at Bremen.

Hoffenheim were something of a fairytale story for neutrals when they climbed Germany's league system and reached the Bundesliga. In their own country though they have been pretty unloved due to the money bieng pumped in by a sole benefactor being against the norm for football clubs. This being the case, many have enjoyed seeing them steadily dropping down the table since their initial burst in their first season in the top flight. This has now happened to such an extent they look certain to be at least involved in a promotion/relegation play-off if not outright relegated to the Bundesliga II. Their tally of sixteen points is dreadful and they have been particularly awful on their travels. Their away record reads won one, drawn one and lost seven with eleven scored and twenty one conceded. It would be fair to say they've looked slightly more organised since the winter break, but Hannover should be trusted to get the job done.

Back Hannover 96 at 2.25 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.

Augsburg v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630

Possibly the second side I've most followed in Germany in the past eighteen months in Mainz under their excellent manager Thomas Tuchel. The young German has instilled a terrific work ethic in his side which can be seen in the constant pressing and harrying they produce every match to wear sides out and then take advantage. This has seen them regularly involved in the European qualification spots and they are in fifth spot and well placed to again compete in the Europa League. They don't have an awesome away record, but they do still have one of the best goals against records away so they're not getting turned over at all. They go won three, drawn two and lost five with thirteen scored and fifteen conceded so far. It's not great, but Augsburg are thankfully worse.

As mentioned Augsburg look doomed to return to their, probably rightful, place in the Bundesliga II this summer. They did excellently to survive in the end last season for another crack at the top sides, but they look out of their depth too regularly and are second bottom with just fourteen points. They have been equally poor at home and away with mirroring records of won one, drawn four and lost five from ten matches. They've conceded fifteen in those ten at home, which isn't actually that bad in a high scoring league like the Bundesliga, but their goals for of seven is the real issue.

Lay Augsburg at 2.8 on Betfair. 2.5 points.

Karabukspor v Bursaspor, Saturday 1700

Both weekends since the winter break in Turkey I've been behind Karabukspor and they've served me well. A personal betting plan of mine is to try and spot good runs of form early from decent sides outside of the 'names' in foreign leagues. There's no weight of money at an English bookmaker in general for these sides so the odds are much more likely to be slightly out and represent a value bet if my picks are correct. And since they'll nearly always be good value, you would expect to come out on top in the long term from betting these sorts of selections anyway. Karabuk are exactly right for this as a mid-table side who don't get beaten easily at all and have the ability to give any side in Turkey a game, as evidenced by beating Galatasaray at Gala earlier in the season. They have actually picked up more points on their travels so far, but they have played eleven away compared to nine at home. IN these nine home matches they go three wins, three draws and three losses with seven scored and ten conceded. They are definitely part of the current trend to go all out away from home in Turkey and those goal figures show how tight they keep it at home in general.

Bursaspor slightly spoiled an almost perfect weekend last time out by holding Galatasaray to a draw in Bursa. They're still a decent side, but they are now way off the team they were when emerging with serious backing to win the Super Lig a few years ago. Their policy of recruiting abroad looks as flawed as the approach Besiktas had taken in the past four years and they would do well to go back to basics. They actually sit a place above Karabukspor as things stand and are something of the leagues draw specialists. They have ten draws in total from just twenty matches so far. They seem to be able to scrap to a draw, and also just as liable to let a side back in for a draw so I think there's reason to back such an eventuality again in this.

Back the Draw at 3.4 with Bet365. 2 points.

Sivasspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1130

As mentioned above, it's worth keeping an eye out for little runs of form from decent sides. This appears a case in point here for Sivasspor after an excellent away win at Fenerbahce last weekend I would expect them to kick on a little bit now. If you look at their home record so far then they've already been very good, although they were beaten 2-1 recently by a Mersin Idman Yurdu side who do seem to specialise in away upsets. Their home record is won four, drawn four and lost just twice with sixteen scored and thirteen conceded. For a mid-table side those are not bad figures at all, although the goals against shows they will give a side chances. Thankfully most teams in Turkey struggle for goals so they're not going to get punished all that often.

Trabzonspor have been a side I have been happy to oppose most weeks this season. Another thing I'll often look at is being against sides that struggle for goals if the odds are right to do so. Trabzonspor have been a fixture in the upper echelons of the Super Lig forever it seems and are certainly one of the big four names most would associate with Turkish football. This can see the odds given by English bookmakers possibly over-estimating their level, as they have done often this season. Sines selling Burak Yilmaz to Galatasaray over the summer they have failed to replace his goals at all. The side was built to supply him and it shouldn't really come as a surprise that with half the sides goals removed they've struggled to cope. They also have one of the worst away records in the top half of the table with won two, drawn three and lost four so far with eleven goals scored and conceded. I can't have them as marginal favs in this.

Lay Trabzonspor at 2.82 on Betfair. 2.5 points.

Due To Technical Issues...

My sincerest apologies for the non-appearance of my column last week, due to a computer crash it was lost at 90% completion and I did not have the time available to redo it. I did put all my tips out on Twitter for those following @TopTopTips, and it was another profitable weekend so it's well worth getting on there.

Week 22

Swansea v Stoke - Win 2.2 points.

West Ham v QPR - Win 1.92 points.

Granada v Rayo Vallecano - Lose 2 points.

Roma v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.

Schalke v Hannover - Lose 1.5 points.

Besiktas v Istanbul BB - Win 2.1 points.

Trabzonspor v Karabukspor - Win 1.67 points.

Totals - Win 2.39 points.

Week 23 (Twitter only)

Reading v Sheff Utd - Win 1.4 points.

Hannover v Wolfsburg - Win 2.6 points.

Hamburg v Werder Bremen - Win 2.7 points.

Catania v Fiorentina - Win 1.6 points.

Gaziantepspor v Fenerbahce - Lose 2 points.

Galatasaray v Besiktas - Win 1.8 points.

Totals - Win 8.1 points.

Running Total - Up 38.14 points.

Music this week from Austin Lucas with Shoulders, bit of folky stuff of an afternoon!

Newcastle v Chelsea, Saturday 1500

As the transfer windows end approaches by far the busiest club have been Alan Pardew's Newcastle United. The Magpies have been poor for most of the first half of the season with various possible reasons combining to see them drop well off last seasons fifth place finish. My reading of the situation is that they managed to keep a settled first eleven playing nearly every week and managed to get every player to put in a bit more than there average efforts and credit should go to Pardew for that. However comma this time out injuries have robbed them of nigh on every player at one point or another and they have looked miles worse a team without everyone fit. The buck must stop with the manager for this really as there are enough players there to do better than they have. It looks like the board still retained faith in Pardew and his chief scout Graham Carr though, as they have once again raided France to give a crucial injection of bodies, and hopefully quality. I think they have bought exceptionally well. For around £15million all in they have got five very good players. Both Moussa Sissoko and Yoann Goufran have been linked with big money moves and have been in the national side and are still under twenty six. Sissoko in particular always looked an excellent player to me and excelled on his debut against Aston Villa. It looks to me like they have more than enough to pull well clear of the bottom.

Chelsea's season is in danger of being all over soon. They have been knocked out of the League Cup, held to a draw by Brentford in the FA Cup and also failed to beat Southampton and Reading in the Premier League lately. There now looks to be absolutely no chance of Rafa Benitez staying on as manager beyond the seasons end and rightly so. There are huge issues to solve at the club and he doesn't seem to be getting anywhere at all. That he is still persisting with Fernando Torres up front when he has Demba Ba itching to get on the pitch is baffling. The defence seems to give up at points in matches and the midfield offers them little help or protection either, a tactical slight on the usually defensive minded Benitez. With Newcastle's buoyed state I'd not fancy Chelsea here at odds on.

Lay Chelsea at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.

Wigan v Southampton, Saturday 1500

Those of you who have been readers of the column for a while will know I avoid Wigan the majority of the time when betting. It doesn't matter how badly they seem to be playing, they always seem to get a result that robs me of my hard earned cash! Every so often though the odds seem so far out they have to be played. This appears to be one of those occasions. When you look at the stats it seems to show Wigan are 'playing the right way', coming out on top of possession amongst other things in most matches. But, they are near to the bottom of the table again as they just don't win matches. A huge part of this is that they don't score enough goals. They currently have twenty seven in twenty four matches, which is not many by the divisions standard. They're a poor side in my opinion and do not justify the odds this week at all.

Southampton started the season like a side that looked doomed to return to The Championship after a solitary season. They have since turned things round to the extent I don't think they'll have any trouble steering clear of trouble come seasons end. The sacking of manager Nigel Adkins seemed harsh, but for all the media coverage of his poor end to his Espanyol managerial post, he was fighting against a host of problems, not least their massive debts. In his first two games it has appeared apparent the players are happy to put in the required effort for his pressing tactics, which I read as a sign they're not too upset at his appointment at all. I think they're a good side with weaknesses in defence. Against a poor attacking side like Wigan they should cope.

Lay Wigan at 2.24 on Betfair. 2 points.

Osasuna v Celta Vigo, Saturday 1500

There does not appear to be much value in Spain this weekend sadly. This looks the best bet to me, although I'm not sure there's much in the price either. It's more a case of looking at respective form of the two sides and betting accordingly. Osasuna are a physical side who have traditionally been excellent at home. They started this season really badly, but have since improved a lot to climb off the bottom of the table since December. This good run has even included a win against Real Madrid at home. As poor as Real have been away, that's no poor effort.

Celta Vigo have the worst away points total in La Liga with just four points. They have one win and one draw along with nine defeats, a terrible record. Were this last season Osasuna would be odds on and they look like they're certainly getting back to that form at home so I want to be on their side.

Back Osasuna at 2.1 with William Hill. 2 points.

Nurnberg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430

Nurnberg are not having much of a time of it in the Bundesliga this season and sit just above the relegation places at present. In the highest scoring of the major European leagues their goals for column showing just eighteen from nineteen matches stands out as the biggest problem they are facing. They actually don't let that many in either, but this is translating into loads of draws which are not getting them enough points to pull anywhere clear of the relegation zone. At home this season their record reads won three, drawn four and lost two. They are not easy to beat, but they are not hard to contain either.

Monchengladbach were a favourite side of mine last season when their mean defence and attack (read Marco Reus mostly!) guided them into Europa League qualification. They sold Reus over the summer to Borussia Dortmund where he has shown how good he is again and they have had to adjust tactically to compensate. This has meant a move to get goals from more sources and utilise a more attacking formation. The flipside of this is that they are also more open at the back. Their away record is actually pretty good as they have not been so gung-ho and have been happy to pick up draws and search for wins at home. They go won two, drawn six and lost just two on the road so far. Points to a draw for me.

Back the Draw at 3.4 with Coral. 2 points.

Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund, Sunday 1430

Second plays third in this important clash on Sunday afternoon. Leverkusen have been the side who have most benefitted from Dortmund making a real go of the Champions League this season. Since Sami Hyypia was drafted in as manager they have looked a very good side, albeit one with no massive stars or egos. Basically they're a side who play to their strengths and don't rely on any fashionable tactical tweaking. They have two excellent forwards in Stefan Kiesling and Andreas Schurrle who would fit in up front for many larger sides, such is their quality. With the also brilliant Lars Bender in front of the defence sorting things out they are well covered. They're a side built to play regularly well, a dream for punters really.

After all I have said about Leverkusen's brilliance, they can't match up to the quality of either Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund on their day. Munich have stormed away with the league's top spot with Dortmund focussing on European football more, but Dortmund tradtionally come on strong after the winter break and look likely to again this season. They opened up with a stunning 5-0 victory over Werder Bremen and followed that with an easy 3-0 win over Nurnberg last weekend. With the Champions League a little way off and everyone fit and firing currently I wouldn't want to be against them.

Back Borussia Dortmund at 2.2 with William Hill. 2 points.

Besiktas v Karabukspor, Friday 1800

In the Turkish Super Lig it looked likely that the only side with a hope of stopping the Galatasaray juggernaut was city rivals Besiktas. Last weekend the two sides met in the aftermath of Gala signing both Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba for a full on assault on the Champions League too, needing a win to apply some pressure. Sadly, even after Gala went down to ten men, Besik could not come back and lost 2-1 to leave themselves five points behind. This shouldn't be a huge problem, but there is no flakier side than Besik. They have now not won since the winter break and are all but out of the title race. Not a good place mentally for a fragile team.

Karabukspor have been the latest side in Turkey to adopt a policy of going all out for three points away from home, and it has propelled them to mid-table safety so far. Their away record of won five and lost five with no draws shows just how precarious a tactic it is for us to bet on though. They do have a league high record of nineteen goals in away matches too which they share currently with Galatasaray. I think they look a touch too long in odds with this in mind.

Lay Besiktas at 1.65 on Betfair. 1.5 points.

Bursaspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700

Bursaspor have spent pretty big in the past eighteen months to populate their squad with Turkish players returning from other leagues and foreigners like Scott Carson in the hope they should be of better standard than the local players. The two biggest names in this policy have probably been the aforementioned Carson and Tuncay Sanli, formerly of the Premier League. Both of these have been a let down for the weight their names carried and the no doubt huge pay packets they are on. Carson in particular has been dreadful of late and is a large part of Bursa conceding so many goals. They have been a lot better at home than away with a record of won four, drawn four and lost two. They have also only conceded eight goals in those ten matches, but were well beaten 4-1 at home by a by no means great Istanbul BB side last weekend. They are well out of form.

Galatasaray managed to extend their lead at the summit of the Super Lig last weekend by beating their nearest rivals Besiktas in the Turk Telekom stadium. This was after the euphoria of signing Wesley Sneijder and announcing that the now completed deal for Didier Drogba was in the pipeline. Whilst Sneijder has not been phenomenal since his 2010 heroics for Inter Milan and Holland, he is still far better than anyone else in the league. Similarly Drogba may now be thirty five, but he is still an excellent addition to complement the excellent Burak Yilmaz in attack. I expect Sneijder to dominate against Bursa and lead Gala's continued march to the title.

Back Galatasaray at 2.2 on Betfair. 2.5 points.

Let The Good Times Roll...

Last weekend again saw us building up the bank for the inevitable cold snap in betting to match the weather outside. I don't mean to keep shouting the negative, but it pays to be aware that you can't win them all. If you could then we'd all have gone pro!

Week 21

Everton v Swansea - Win 3.17 points.

Norwich v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.

Manchester United v Liverpool - Win 2.7 points.

Osasuna v Real Madrid - Win 1.5 points.

Catania v Roma - Win 2.4 points.

Totals - Win 7.77 points.

Running Totals - Up 27.65 points.

Music this week from Bad Astronaut with Break Your Frame.

Swansea v Stoke, Saturday 1500

Late last night Swansea were eliminated from the FA Cup by a late Jack Wilshere winner for Arsenal. They probably won't be hugely upset though as they have a lead going into the second leg of the League Cup semi final and are riding high in the Premier League too. In my season preview I was slightly sceptical of how Michael Laudrup would cope in England as he had only previously managed in Spain of the major leagues. However comma he has been going extremely well and looks like a possible manager of the year candidate if he does win a cup. He has been well used to working within a tight budget in Spain and it is this that is perhaps serving him well, as well as his signings from La Liga. Brendan Rodgers had a very well functioning side, but it did somewhat lack in flair or a plan B. Laudrup has added some very good players to the attack from Spain such as Michu, Jonatan De Guzman and Pablo Hernandez. Whilst the latter two have not been as obviously brilliant as Michu, they contribute by showing their technical ability and tricks when required. I still think the bookies occasionally under-value the Welsh side.

Stoke started the season poorly and have still not cured their long term malaise away from the Brittania. Tony Pulis is fortunate in that the fans of the side seem perfectly content to revel in their physical approach and, to his credit, they look unlikely to go down under his stewardship. They still offer very little in terms of passing or flair and rely upon battling qualities to grind out wins. This is majorly aided when they're at home by the backing they receive and it certainly seems to make referees less inclined to dish cards out for their rough stuff. This also means that they have to tone it down somewhat away due to the higher risk of losing players to sending offs. This should give Swansea plenty of chances to overcome them.

Back Swansea at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.

West Ham v QPR, Saturday 1500

The Hammers have not been outclassed at all really upon their return to the Premier League under Sam Allardyce. I still feel there will come a time not too long in the future when the fans turn against his style of play, but they currently seem sensible enough to realise what a decent job he is doing. With this being said they are in a slightly poor run of late. This has seen them only winning one match since the 3-1 win over Chelsea that made people sit up and take notice of the season they're having. In this poor run they have also lost two of their three home matches, to Everton and Liverpool, and beaten a Norwich side who are beginning to look a little tired. The problem seems to be the forwards for me. Andy Carroll has not found his shooting boots, Carlton Cole also, and this puts real pressure on everyone else. The midfield are working their socks off and I have even seen mentions of an England call for captain Mark Noble, but this won't win them games. They look a little short for a side who are struggling for goals.

The rise of QPR under Harry Redknapp appears to be beginning. Had he been forced to simply persist with the horrendous squad he inherited from Mark Hughes they may well be doomed, but the additions he has made, or is making, look of sufficient quality to make avoiding relegation a possibility. This week has seen QPR sign Loic Remy from Marseille and the signing of Yann M'Vila from Rennes also looks likely, possibly in time for this match. Whilst both of these players have had their issues, or else their sights would be higher than QPR, there is definitely quality in them both. Both were French internationals not long ago and both also have very good physical qualities that should see them settle in quickly in England. The fact that Rangers had already begun to pick up their performances gives me enough confidence to be on their side at these odds.

Lay West Ham at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.

Granada v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 1500

With this one we're taking something of a punt on Rayo's hit and miss away form, but I think it's worth doing. Granada are hovering around the bottom of the table and have a truly dire home record. So far they have only won one match at their own ground with four draws and four losses too. This has in fact left the level on points with Mallorca who are the last side in the current relegation zone. Granada are another club, along with Watford, that the Italian side Udinese have invested in with a view to bringing numerous players into Europe and getting them playing time before either heading to Udine themselves or being sold on at a profit. Watford are beginning to benefit from the approach in the second tier in England, but it would appear that the top league in Spain is a bridge too far for Granada at times. Seven goals in nine home matches tells you where the problems lie.

Rayo Vallecano have kicked on again this season. They have been a side on the up and up ever since promotion to the top flight and have generally used an attacking approach to do it. This has again been true this season. They do leave themselves very open to being picked off if not everyone is on top of their games, but this risky approach has seen them up to sixth in the league so far. They have only drawn a solitary match all season and that was at home. Away from Vallecas they go won four and lost five of nine, with thirteen scored and a whopping twenty one conceded. The gamble is that with Granada offering little attacking threat Rayo will be able to outgun them.

Lay Granada at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.

Roma v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945

Last weekends laying of Roma was a good choice with the capital side again struggling away from home. The return of the previously successful manager Zdenek Zeman was meant to usher back success and with it plenty of the excitement his sides are famed for. As these things often do though, it has not gone according to plan. Zeman's magic touch appears a little outdated now with sides much less likely to give up spaces to exploit as easily and possession the name of the game. There will still be matches where it all clicks and they absolutely bombard sides until they fold, but I think he'll be lucky to last past the summer in the managerial position. He has also again exposed his prickly character in leaving Daniele De Rossi out of the side when they could really do with his application, experience and leadership. They have been far better at home with five wins, two draws and two losses, but they do run themselves close at times.

Inter Milan looked the most likely challengers to Juventus at the start of December, but some mixed results saw them drop back to fourth and possibly out of it. That Juventus have dropped points in their last two matches should give them hope that a good run of results could push them back into contention though, however unlikely. Inter are yet another side with an incredibly patchy away record. They go four wins and six losses from ten, in fact they haven't won away since early November when they broke Juventus's incredible unbeaten run. They really haven't found those heights since and it is possible the unrest surrounding the popular Wesley Sneijder has transferred to the rest of the side. Diego Milito looks less of a player in his absence and without his goals they will always struggle.

Back Roma at 2.1 with Ladbrokes. 1.5 points.

Schalke v Hannover 96, Friday 1930

This is the only match that stands out to me in the Bundesliga this weekend. It is also the first match for many sides after the winter break and I'd be keen to see a few of them in action before committing my money. That being said, Schalke earnt us plenty of money by laying them before the break and this still appears to be the case in this match. They clearly have some good players in the ranks, but it seems the fact they are in the Champions League has seen them priced very short by English bookmakers for a side that was performing so badly they sacked their manager before Xmas.

Hannover are a much more reliable side. They always put the effort in, although this season has seen them not getting the rewards away from home. This sees them well down the table from their usual position around the Europa League spots, but they should be looking to put this right. They have struggled for goals away from home so far with only thirteen scored compared to twenty in the same amount of home matches. It's a punt, but they're good enough to upset the odds I think.

Lay Schalke at 1.72 on Betfair. 1.5 points.

Besiktas v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1700

Another league that returns this weekend is the Turkish Super Lig. Similarly to Germany, I'm not keen to commit loads of money to bets until I've had a week or two to see how well prepared the returning sides are. Besiktas can usually be relied upon to have plenty of goals in their matches and as ever this is the case. They have had more goals in their matches than any other side in the Super Lig so far. They also sit second in the table thanks to getting themselves together in a way that has seemed beyond them for years. The re-signing of Manuel Fernandes was a master stroke. The Portugese would fit in in any league in Europe in my opinion and is capable of running games in Turkey.

Istanbul BB had been riding high for a couple of seasons, but have fallen back this term. They were one of the first sides to attempt the attack when away approach a few are now going with and to an extent it is working. They have a record of won four and lost five with eleven scored and ten conceded. This may not be huge numbers, but in Turkey it's plenty good enough to rely on them getting a goal. I can see goals in this one, possibly plenty of them.

Back Over 3.0 Goals at 2.05 with Bet365. 2 points.

Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Sunday 1400

I think Trabzonspor are a bit short for this match. Their home record of four wins, three draws and two losses is not bad, but only scoring nine goals in nine matches in not good enough. The sale of Burak Yilmaz robbed them of over 50% of their goals in the previous two seasons so they need to find a way of replacing those goals. It looks increasingly like only signing a new striker can get them back up the table.

Karabukspor seem to be the latest side in Turkey to take on the score more than you approach away from home. This has seen them comfortably in mid-table and only one place behind their more illustrious opponents Trabzon. They have won four and lost five of nine matches away from home, but the real shock is their goals record. They have scored an enormous sixteen and conceded nineteen in those matches. Turkey is not a high scoring country so this is unheard of. I'm backing Trabzon not having enough threat to hurt Karabuk and Karabuk to somehow capitalise.

Lay Trabzonspor at 1.9 on Betfair. 1.5 points.

Starting The Year In The Black...

The first column of the year came in over the weekend with just one bet down so I will endeavour to keep steadily churning profit. The thing to be aware of is that you would have to be incredibly disciplined/knowledgeable/lucky to win all the time and losing is inevitable. I do this column as a bit of fun for myself, although I am serious about the bets, and any money we make is simply a little extra.

Week 20

Crystal Palace v Stoke City - Lose 2 points.

West Ham v Manchester United - Win 2.8 points.

Swansea v Arsenal - Win 2.4 points.

Levante v Athletic Bilbao - Win 3.5 points.

Lazio v Cagliari - Win 1.83 points.

Totals - Win 8.53 points.

Running Total - Up 19.88 points.

Music this week from another old favourite Hot Water Music with Under Everything.

Everton v Swansea, Saturday 1500

The pick of the prices for me on Saturday is Everton looking very short against the ever impressive Swansea. Everton started off the season like a train and were scoring goals from all areas and dominating any side they played physically too. The deployment of the hulking Marouane Fellaini behind the striker was a master stroke by David Moyes. Many sides now seem to be requiring goals less and less from the notional central man in the forward line, Christian Benteke at Aston Villa is another example. Fellaini can very well get goals when given the chance, and is a huge aerial threat, but his main role is to bully defenders and create space for those around him like Nikola Jelavic and Steven Pienaar. The problem in the last month has been that Fellaini has looked tired and the goals have dried up for the rest of the side at the same time. This leaves Everton as a solid side, Moyes will always see to that, but without the threat to justify such short odds in this.

Swansea look to have really settled into the style of play Michael Laudrup wants to see now. There were bound to be issues to be solved when changing from Brendan Rodgers Barcelona-lite style of constant passing to having more threat under Laudrup. To do this he has brought in players he was familiar with from his time in Spain. The most obvious success has been the forward Michu, who is taking up numerous column inches of late as some sort of 'discovery'. The fact is that he had been a journeyman until last year when he was moved forward and contributed 15 goals to a relatively poor Rayo Vallecano side. These things were there for all to see so I don't wuite buy into him being 'unearthed' by Swansea or Laudrup. But, he is having a brilliant season. He is not the tiki taka type and his style of simply looking for a shot at all times might even suit the Premier League better than La Liga. Throw in the likes of Jonatan De Guzman on the wing and the mercurial Pablo Hernandez also on the flanks and there is a lot of quality in this side now.

Lay Everton at 1.63 on Betfair. 2 points.

Norwich City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500

A side I have followed since around November has been Norwich City. After the loss of manager Paul Lambert to Aston Villa in the summer the club went and got Chris Hughton from Birmingham City. Hughton had done superbly at both Newcastle and Birmingham in the Championship with restrictions on playing staff and Norwich took a chance on him doing the same in the Premier League. This initially may have looked madness with goals being shipped all over, but once they settled into his system they went on a ten match unbeaten streak to pull them well clear of the relegation spots. They had some mixed results over Xmas, but still look a very good side to me. They carry plenty of attacking threat for a mid-table side and look solid at the back. They are edging towards being short in this, but I'll just side with them at the larger prices out there.

Newcastle United have looked dreadful for most of the season so far. Last seasons push for the Champions League now looks a long way away with the side struggling and having already lose ten matches in the league. The first choice eleven that did so well last season has been torn apart by injuries so far and they don't look the same side when one or more of them is missing. The even bigger worry now is that after selling Demba Ba they may not even replace his guaranteed goals. Papiss Cisse now has those shoes to fill and I think he is a more rounded team player, but it will be up to Alan Pardew to make sure that he works to get wins. If these don't start coming soon then it could get very close to a relegation battle. New signings, that have not arrived yet, are needed.

Back Norwich City at 2.25 with BODOG. 2 points.

Manchester United v Liverpool, Sunday 1330

I have stated many times that I think that Manchester United could be doing a lot better than they are in terms of the performances they are turning in. However comma that being said they seem to be comfortably ticking along to getting the title back from neighbours City. This has largely been down to the performances of their forward players and in particular the summer signing, Robin Van Persie. The Dutch striker may have looked expensive for a player with little sell on value, but he will be a bargain if he continues to fire United to the league title. He also seems to be bringing the best out of Wayne Rooney since his spell with Cristiano Ronaldo, which would suggest to me that he can't do it all alone despite what some journalists in this country believe. With Nemanja Vidic also playing his way back into form and fitness they look a decent price to me.

Liverpool are regular lays for me. The sheer weight of supporters money sees them always going off at odds I would suggest are not representative of their performances or league position. I am also beginning to think that their manager Brendan Rodgers got lucky that all was in place for him at Swansea and his spell at Reading may be more like the 'real' Rodgers. Liverpool seem to still rely far too heavily on Luis Suarez dragging them through matches. This is no real shock as he is miles better than any other player at the club, but I would have liked to see Rodgers do something else to help him out. Presumably the signing of Daniel Sturridge is to help with this, but I don't think this is the game they suddenly burst into a partnership. In fact, I would not be surprised if Sturridge starts on the bench with Rodgers looking to contain. They are miles behind United at the moment and I don't see them stopping United scoring.

Back Manchester United at 1.9 with William Hill. 3 points.

Osasuna v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900

Osasuna were a side I followed at home last year due to the awesome record they've had there in recent years. They are possibly the side you would most recognise as playing an 'English' style of physical football, Spain's Stoke if you will. They have a compact ground too with fans who are not there to enjoy flair players, rather they want to see their side bully the opposition off the park. They started this season off very poorly and have not turned it round to the extent that they are still bottom of the table. They have never been high scorers and this has been particularly costly with their defence suddenly conceding many more than in previous seasons. This has been tightened up in the last seven matches though, and they have in fact only conceded seven in nine matches at home so far. Strangely I think they've as much chance in this as any decent side visiting.

Real Madrid have become absolutely mental lately. Jose Mourinho seems to have decided that his best course of action is to get the sack and a massive pay off and is doing his best to drag the club into disrepute. He has never tried to placate the media in either Madrid or wider Spain and is now using this as a tool to turn everyone against him. He has recently dropped Iker Casillas as goalkeeper in what looks like more politics with Casillas and Sergio Ramos widely suspected dissenters. The club have all but given up on the league title and have been pretty dreadful on their travels. They're worth opposing for smallish stakes I think in what should be a tough match.

Lay Real Madrid at 1.49 on Betfair. 1.5 point.

Catania v Roma, Sunday 1400

Catania punched well above their weight last season under the newcomer to management Vincenzo Montella. The former Roma forward has since moved on to doing very well with Fiorentina, but his former club are not doing too badly themselves. A lot of this has been down to their excellent home form. Their record reads won six, drawn two and lost two at home so far with seventeen goals scored and only nine conceded. They may even better last seasons eleventh place finish in Rolando Maran's first season in charge. They returned to action after the winter break with a 0-0 draw with Torino at home which doesn't look great on paper, but they were donw to ten men and Torino are probably better than a thirteenth position in the standings.

Roma decided to scrap the Spanish experiment after just a year in the summer and re-appointed fan favourite Zdenek Zeman as manager from promoted Pescara. In the preceding years between his last spell at the club and his return his style of play has not changed at all, he is all out attack. This can be fantastic in Italy where sides still are unsure of how to contend with such an approach when most sides play a much more measured style. It also means that when the forwards don't fire though his sides can be left very exposed. Nowhere is this more true than away. They have a record of five wins, five losses and not a single draw to back up the assertion that they are either very good or very bad. Up against a good home side they look underpriced to me.

Lay Roma at 2.24 on Betfair. 3 points.