Well...this weekend seems to be a weekend of finals in terms of betting with the Champions League and also the play-off finals from The Championship as well as Leagues 1 and 2 in England. France is the only league in Europe that I pay any attention too that hasn't finished yet, but it's last games form there so I'll be avoiding them as nearly every position is tied up and I don't know how seriously teams will be taking their matches. The numerous end of season matches we have could well be dull affairs as there is so much riding on them that everyone is extremely careful to avoid any slip-ups that will cost their team the match. As mentioned previously, I am happy to keep the tips coming over the summer months from the leagues and tournaments that are still going on if there is a demand for it. So please leave a comment below if you're still wanting some guidance over the warmer months. Music comes from Black Rebel Motorcycle Club and the wondrous Fault Line, a cracking tune from a cracking album.
Stevenage v Torquay, League 2 Play-off Final 2011, Saturday 1500
The first match we come to this fine weekend is the League 2 play-off final with Stevenage and Torquay meeting. Stevenage under Graham Westley have become very effective, but pretty widely hated due to their managers many eccentricities. He is something of a modern day John Beck, he is more than happy to rub teams up the worng way before the match, to water the pitch, to take breaks around half an hour in to the match. He's a very intriguing character. They are a team built from the back forward, I personally remember seeing Jon Ashton at centre half against Cambridge and being hugely impressed. He's a bleeding enormous lump of a man, and he will clear the lines at every opportunity as well as posing a threat from set-pieces. Torquay beat Cambridge in the play-offs 3 years ago now in one of the most pathetic matches you're ever likely to see. Both teams froze on the day and either really deserved to go up after that performance. Torquay have a very similar goal difference to Stevenage, but they have scored and conceded more to get there. Chris Zebroski up front is their star man and is their top scorer. I see this being a tight match, mostly due to Stevenage's inherent reserved play. I think both sides will be happy to head into the break level. I would take the Half Time Draw at 2-14 with Betfair and also possibly take Stevenage to win 1-0 for a bit of extra money, best price for that is 8.0 with Totesport.
Huddersfield v P.O.S.H, League 1 Play-off Final 2011, Sunday 1500
I can barely bring myself to talk about this absolutely repulsive town and team, but for the sake of betting I'll try. Just before I do though I would advise everyone to avoid the dank, depressing, grey dump at all costs. A more horrible town you're unlikely to find. Now, back to the match. Both sides have reputations for playing attacking football under young, forward-thinking managers. Huddersfield under Lee Clark have a solid defence allied to a young, pacey attack. They have old head Zinedine Kilbane in midfield to provide calm and guidance to an otherwise youthful forward line. Jordan Rhodes has been a revelation since Roy Keane foolishly let him leave Ipswich for peanuts last year. With the future England international Benik Afobe also up front on loan from Arsenal, they have both pace and flair in abundance and have been unplayable at times this season. If they play to the best of their ability tomorrow then Huddersfield should win this comfortably. The problem will come if they let their standards slip. P.O.S.H are also a very attacking side, and if gaps appear in the Huddersfield backline they have the players to exploit them, in particular Craig Mackail-Smith. This will be likely to be his final match for P.O.S.H as both QPR and Norwich are supposedly looking to give him a go in the Prem next season. I think this will go to form if there's an early goal and we'll see end to end attacking and plenty of goals. I fancy Mackail-Smith to sign off with a goal and you can get 2.87 anytime with Stan James. I would also probably go for the Second Half to be higest scoring at 2.1 with Coral as both teams look to win.
Reading v Swansea, Championship Play-off Final 2011, Monday 1500
Another match with two sides perfectly capable of plenty of goals if the mood takes them. Swansea have been low scorers for the past few seasons, but have come alive of late with the loan signing of Fabio Borini from Chelsea. He has already agreed a move back home to Parma on the back of his excellent performances for the Jacks and this will be his last match in England. Reading have had one of the better strikers in the whole of the Championship this season in Shane Long. He's always been on the fringes of being the main man, but has come alive this season and has caught the attention of most of the Premier League outside of the Top 6. Whether Reading get there or not I would expect to see him in the top division next season. For Swansea, Ashley Williams has been a rock at the back and has picked up numerous club awards over the past few seasons and probably deserves his chance at Premier League level. There is also the fact that Swansea manager Brendan Rodgers was in charge at The Royals before Brian McDermott took over. He had not exactly set the world alight at Reading, but will probably feel he has something to prove to his old club and will be even more desperate to win this one. The bookies all have this as a tight one, but I think it could come alive if there is a goal before the hour mark. These matches are often dependent on a goal to get them going as the teams then know they have little choice but to go for a goal themselves. I fancy a goal early on so I'm happy to take on odds of 2.25 at William Hill on Over 2.5 goals. I would also get on Shane Long to add to his reputation with a goal, odds of 3.25 at Ladbrokes for him to score anytime look superb to me.
Manchester United v Barcelona, Champions League Final 2011, Saturday 1945
Da, da da. With both sides wrapping up the leagues in their respective countries with matches to spare, they have had plenty of time to prepare for this. It's a repeat of the final from 2009 and Sir Wrigley reckons he's learnt from the mistakes he made in that final. I think the biggest mistake was thinking he had a hope in hell of matching them anywhere on the pitch. Barcelona will go down in history as the most dominant team the game has ever seen. They regularly rack up possession percentages around 75% and no team can compete with that. The only way to beat them is to defend deep, let them play in front of you and hope they are short of inspiration for a change. Then hope to nick a goal when you get one of the few chances that will befall the opposition. I have seen a lot of people getting their knickers in a bunch this week over Barcelona's supposed 'constant cheating'. Now, I'm no fan of either Dani Alves or Sergio Busquets, as they're both two of the most disgusting cheats I've ever seen. The amount of rolling round, harranguing the referee and waving of imaginary cards is abhorrent. However, we are talking about Man Utd, the team that pretty much invented surrounding the referee to gain an advantage. And the disgusting antics of Alves and Biscuits are somewhat offset by the fact you are watching three of the world's best weaving patterns in play in Messi, Xavi and Iniesta. When you compare those three to Man Utd's probable midfield of Giggs, Carrick and Fletcher/Anderson, you get some ides of how much of a task Fergie faces. Giggs has done well in his more central role, but he pales in comparison to the very best there, Carrick is just about the worst big game player you'll ever see and Fletcher has barely played whilst Anderson has just gotten very fat. I think there's only one possible outcome, one-off match or not, and that's another Barcelona trophy parade. Take them at a fantastic 2.2 with William Hill to get the job done in 90 minutes. I would also be tempted to dabble at odds of 10.0 on a repeat of the 2-0 scoreline from 2009 at William Hill too.
Mission Statement
We have now settled on a format to include a selection of Premier League games, some European matches and some musical recommendations. The musical recommendations are probably not the blogs best feature! If you would like me to include anything else or suggest changes then please get in touch via the Comments section.
You can also now find me published regularly at http://bornoffside.net/general-genius/tipster-column/ and follow me http://twitter.com/#!/TopTopTips
Saturday, 28 May 2011
Friday, 20 May 2011
Better late than never...
Whether you agree with the title or not is probably up for debate, but nevertheless I'll treat you to a blog even though I don't really have time. I'm sure I have your utmost sympathies. Anyway, we're into the last matches of the season in most leagues so it can be incredibly difficult to predict the outcome of the games without team news. I'll try and find some games with something riding on them so we all have a better chance of a final payday. Lord knows what I'll be betting on over the summer, I'll have to research the South American Leagues I think. Maybe even tennis, although I certainly wont be tipping much of that and harming my wonderful reputation! I'll start with a bit of a political twist to music this week with Anti-Flag and One Trillion Dollars.
Aston Villa v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
This match should really be a no bet as both don't really have a great deal to play for except pride. However I see it as a potential thriller, with both sides going for broke with no repercussions to speak of. Pool seem to care little for the Europa League next season, but it looks like they'll have to stomach it. Villa have looked much better in the games since safety was assured for another season and Gary Mac has probably done his chances no harm as boss if Ged Houllier fails to reappear next season. The cynical amongst us may point to players like Ashley Young playing for a big move in the summer, but whatever the reason, Villa look impressive to me. I think they should be roughly even prices with Pool so I'll be having some on them at an appealing 3.25 with Victor Chandler. As an aside, if you ever want to get against Pool then Chandlers seem to be very happy to go best price.
Fulham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Once again I'm going against my better judgement on this really and playing it even though there is relatively little to play for. Arsenal are fighting for third spot and automatic qualification for the Champions League group stages, but it's out of their hands really. And they're in fooking terrible form losing 3 of the last 4. Villa last weekend were the latest beneficiaries of their debatable defending. Gooners fans must be tearing their hair out that Pat 'Yes Boss' Rice has signed an extension to his contract. Wenger has many qualities, but I think he needs someone to challenge him on his sides horrible defending at times, and Rice does not appear to be that man. Fulham seem to have beaten their away day blues as well as well as just playing with much more freedom since their place was confirmed a few weeks ago. Players like Clint Dempsey and Brede Hangeland pose the sort of problems Arsenal hate with their power and direct running, as well as set piece threat. I think it's well worth opposing the Gooners and seeing more protests from the supporters fed up with the increasing prices and reduced spectacle on offer. They are freely available at 1.91 at Coral Double Chance with the Draw and I'll be staking that.
Man Utd v Blackpool, Sunday 1600
This match has the potential to be an absolute belter for the neutrals. For the generally 8 or 9 fingers on one hand freak shows that are Blackpools support, those extra nails will be getting well and truly bitten. They must fancy their chances with United's eyes understandably on the Champions League and Barcelona. They're going to get their arses anded to them in my opinion, but they'll be wanting the key players as fresh as possible so expect to see the likes of Obertan and Bebe making an appearance. This should hugely fire up the Seasiders. I honestly don't think the two mentioned players would make Blackpool's line-up, so they have to fancy their chances. And as we all now know, defending will not be their priority. Mainly becasue they're worse than hopeless at it. Expect goals, and plenty of them. Back Over 3.5 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Gaziantepspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1800
This one should be interesting. Besiktas have not got anything to play for and Gaziantep have the chance to sign off for the season by beating one of Turkey's big boys. Gaziantep have secured Europa League football at the expense of Besiktas and it has mostly been because of their imperious home form. They have won 10 of their 16 home matches so far, only tasting defeat twice. They have only conceded 16 in that time too. And if you've ever watched any Turkish football you'll understand that's an impressive figure in a league that makes some pub football back four's look exceptional. The bookies have been cutting Gaziantep, but I still think there's some value in getting on the boat. I'd take them on a -1.0 Asian Hcap at 2.1 with Bet365, but I'd also encourage a back at 1.8 with Corbett Sports on the outright match prices.
Karabukspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
The battle at the top of the SuperLig has reached the last weekend, but it is as good as over with Trabzonspor requiring a 9 goal swing to topple Fener from the peak of the table. This will likely be beyond them, but Karabuk have little to play for at all and I would fully expect to see Trabzon run up an impressive scoreline in vain. They are not big scorers generally, the 3-1 win last weekend was a bit of a rarity in itself, but there's nothing for them to do except throw the kitchen sink at the opposition and pray for a minor miracle. The fact Yilmaz is back for them is huge, he has scored around 70% of their goals recently, and will need to be on top form to give them any hope of a memorable last day triumph. As I say, they wont do it, but they'll go down trying! I'd even back them at -2.0 with Bet365 at an appealing 2.5 such is my confidence in them.
Sivasspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
Another interesting match up with Fener needing to do no more than win really. They'll be happy with a 1-0 win, as they must be confident that Trabzon will fail to beat Karabuk by 10 goals. Sivasspor's season finished a few weeks ago and they will be unlikely to put up too much of a fight when Fener inevitably go ahead. They'll be thinking of their summer holidays, and probably a move to a club that can pay their wages. Fener and Sivass have both been involved in some very high scoring matches this season, and the odds reflect that. However comma I can see this being one of those matches where both teams are far too happy to settle for a low scoring match with no effort or risk of injury. Get on Under 2.5 goals at 2.62 with William Hill now.
Aston Villa v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
This match should really be a no bet as both don't really have a great deal to play for except pride. However I see it as a potential thriller, with both sides going for broke with no repercussions to speak of. Pool seem to care little for the Europa League next season, but it looks like they'll have to stomach it. Villa have looked much better in the games since safety was assured for another season and Gary Mac has probably done his chances no harm as boss if Ged Houllier fails to reappear next season. The cynical amongst us may point to players like Ashley Young playing for a big move in the summer, but whatever the reason, Villa look impressive to me. I think they should be roughly even prices with Pool so I'll be having some on them at an appealing 3.25 with Victor Chandler. As an aside, if you ever want to get against Pool then Chandlers seem to be very happy to go best price.
Fulham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Once again I'm going against my better judgement on this really and playing it even though there is relatively little to play for. Arsenal are fighting for third spot and automatic qualification for the Champions League group stages, but it's out of their hands really. And they're in fooking terrible form losing 3 of the last 4. Villa last weekend were the latest beneficiaries of their debatable defending. Gooners fans must be tearing their hair out that Pat 'Yes Boss' Rice has signed an extension to his contract. Wenger has many qualities, but I think he needs someone to challenge him on his sides horrible defending at times, and Rice does not appear to be that man. Fulham seem to have beaten their away day blues as well as well as just playing with much more freedom since their place was confirmed a few weeks ago. Players like Clint Dempsey and Brede Hangeland pose the sort of problems Arsenal hate with their power and direct running, as well as set piece threat. I think it's well worth opposing the Gooners and seeing more protests from the supporters fed up with the increasing prices and reduced spectacle on offer. They are freely available at 1.91 at Coral Double Chance with the Draw and I'll be staking that.
Man Utd v Blackpool, Sunday 1600
This match has the potential to be an absolute belter for the neutrals. For the generally 8 or 9 fingers on one hand freak shows that are Blackpools support, those extra nails will be getting well and truly bitten. They must fancy their chances with United's eyes understandably on the Champions League and Barcelona. They're going to get their arses anded to them in my opinion, but they'll be wanting the key players as fresh as possible so expect to see the likes of Obertan and Bebe making an appearance. This should hugely fire up the Seasiders. I honestly don't think the two mentioned players would make Blackpool's line-up, so they have to fancy their chances. And as we all now know, defending will not be their priority. Mainly becasue they're worse than hopeless at it. Expect goals, and plenty of them. Back Over 3.5 goals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Gaziantepspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1800
This one should be interesting. Besiktas have not got anything to play for and Gaziantep have the chance to sign off for the season by beating one of Turkey's big boys. Gaziantep have secured Europa League football at the expense of Besiktas and it has mostly been because of their imperious home form. They have won 10 of their 16 home matches so far, only tasting defeat twice. They have only conceded 16 in that time too. And if you've ever watched any Turkish football you'll understand that's an impressive figure in a league that makes some pub football back four's look exceptional. The bookies have been cutting Gaziantep, but I still think there's some value in getting on the boat. I'd take them on a -1.0 Asian Hcap at 2.1 with Bet365, but I'd also encourage a back at 1.8 with Corbett Sports on the outright match prices.
Karabukspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
The battle at the top of the SuperLig has reached the last weekend, but it is as good as over with Trabzonspor requiring a 9 goal swing to topple Fener from the peak of the table. This will likely be beyond them, but Karabuk have little to play for at all and I would fully expect to see Trabzon run up an impressive scoreline in vain. They are not big scorers generally, the 3-1 win last weekend was a bit of a rarity in itself, but there's nothing for them to do except throw the kitchen sink at the opposition and pray for a minor miracle. The fact Yilmaz is back for them is huge, he has scored around 70% of their goals recently, and will need to be on top form to give them any hope of a memorable last day triumph. As I say, they wont do it, but they'll go down trying! I'd even back them at -2.0 with Bet365 at an appealing 2.5 such is my confidence in them.
Sivasspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
Another interesting match up with Fener needing to do no more than win really. They'll be happy with a 1-0 win, as they must be confident that Trabzon will fail to beat Karabuk by 10 goals. Sivasspor's season finished a few weeks ago and they will be unlikely to put up too much of a fight when Fener inevitably go ahead. They'll be thinking of their summer holidays, and probably a move to a club that can pay their wages. Fener and Sivass have both been involved in some very high scoring matches this season, and the odds reflect that. However comma I can see this being one of those matches where both teams are far too happy to settle for a low scoring match with no effort or risk of injury. Get on Under 2.5 goals at 2.62 with William Hill now.
Friday, 6 May 2011
A thrilling climax...
Well, here we are at seasons end in nearly all the European Leagues. It's been a thriller as ever with the top 3 looking to be Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal, wow! This is something completely new isn't it? That being said, if Citeh can hold on to 4th spot then with the backing they have and the lure of Champions League football they may well be able to push on that bit more next year and shake things up. This week also saw both Man Utd and Barcelona make it through to the Champions League final at Wembley almost at a canter. Both sides scored first to as good as put their respective ties out of doubt and went on to secure their place. There's a lot of talk around how United can possibly beat Barca, and in my opinion, they can't. Whilst they are solid in defence for the most part, and Rooney and Hernandez are looking promising as a partnership, that midfield is dogshit. Utter tripe. Barca may not thrash them, Sir Wrigley should be too astute for that, but United will not see the ball and should be easily beaten. Music this week comes with a summery vibe...Mos Def and Ms Fat Booty.
Aston Villa v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Normally I'd avoid Wigan matches, and avoid watching Villa or Wigan matches. A pair of more turgid sides there is not in the Premier League. But, this time I'm keen to be involved. Villa are priced a bit longer than usual as it's all to play for for Wigan, and I think this is a bit of an error. Villa will still want to push as high up the table as they can, the players need to prove themselves, and the club will make more money that way. Darren Bent is always good for a goal against teams of Wigan's quality, or lack thereof, and I think Villa will probably nick it. Wigan are in the position they are for a reason. And that reason is their complete lack of quality barring Rodallega and McCarthy, neither of whom are scoring enough either. Get on Villa at 1.85 with Paddy Power now.
West Ham v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
This match is the definition of a relegation 6 pointer. The Hammers have retreated back to the majority of the seasons form since February's renaissance and are looking diabolical again. Blackburn have tried to play more football since the removal of Lamb Shank lookalike Big Fat Sam, but have failed miserably. They look toothless up front since the reinstatement of Jason Roberts, funny that, and leak goals at the back at an alarming rate. They've been particularly poor away from home so far this season and the Hammers must win this one to have a hope of staying up. And, I think they'll do it! They may be out of form, but they'll know it's now or never, and their strikers will all be playing to impress other managers and stay in the league even if the club fall. I see them giving their fans some hope to cling to. They are 2.0 are most firms and I'd take that.
Man Utd v Chelsea, Sunday 1610
The Big One at the other end of the table at Old Trafford. The home of the Asian fan hosts Chavski on Sunday and Utd will presumably be confident enough with their mostly imperious home form. Chelsea have hit form just at the right time to make a late push for the title and must win this or it's really all over for them, and possibly Ancelotti. Fernando Torres finally has his first goal, but still looks like a summer spent resting would do him good, and Drogba looks back to his best when through the centre. United have all their big guns to call on after resting most against Schalke, somewhat devaluing UEFA's premier competition, and Sir Wrigley will know this will finally be the title to beat Pool's 18 title record. He will send them out fired up for this. Wayne Rooney is back, and in one of his goal gluts, and I reckon he'll get one in this. David Luiz still leaves too much space and he should exploit this. I think the 2.4 at Paddy Power on a United win is good value as is the quotes of 2.6 for Rooney anytime with the same firm.
Valencia v Real Sociedad, Saturday 1700
A top v bottom clash from La Liga on Saturday afternoon. Valencia are in good goalscoring form with 15 goals in their last 6 matches and Roberto Soldado has 7 of those. He is in the form of his life and is greatly enjoying the service of the likes of Juan Mata and Joaquin. Sociedad have climbed to mid table, but are still only 4 points clear of relegation. They beat Barcelona last week, with the Catalans clearly having both eyes on Madrid in the week. They have wrapped up the title and know they can afford to drop points and rest for the Champions League. So I wouldn't read into that result too much. A more revealing stat is that they have lost 13 of their 17 away matches, and Valencia have only lost 4 times at home. They should coast this one and I'd back Soldado to score anytime at 2.05 with Victor Chandler.
Genoa v Sampdoria, Sunday 1945
The Genoa derby is on Sunday night in Serie A and it's usually a feisty affair! The two clubs have had fairly mediocre seasons this year and local pride is about all that's left to play for now. Since selling Antonio Cassano Samp have looked goalshy and have slumped to midtable. Genoa have lacked goals all season and that has kept them well away from European football next year. Expect all those anxieties and anger to be taken out on each other in this. Especially with the crowd baying after all day to get tanked up. I would back a Red Card at 2.7 with Unibet.
Bucaspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
Three games left to play and Trabzon and Fener are still locked together at the top of the table. They have been putting everything into their games of late knowing that any slip up at this stage will probably see them out of the race for the SuperLig. Some of the other matches have proved hard to predict with teams lacking effort in some matches then coming out all guns blazing next time, but the two giants have been all out all the time. They are a very short 1.3 away from home, but rightly so in my opinion. Bucaspor are 8 points away from safety and can be relegated if they lose this, and they will. Trabzon have led at half time in their last 4 home matches and have gone on to win them all from that position. That makes quotes of 1.83 at Paddy Power on such an eventuality look very appealing to me.
Sivasspor v Ankaragucu, Sunday 1800
This one sees Sivasspor with the chance to make sure they spend another seaosn in the SuperLig. As mentioned in the above tip, Bucaspor are 8 points adrift of Sivass with three to play. They play at the same time, but I'm sure Sivass will see this as perfectly winnable and be able to make themselves safe. They have had a revival since xmas and should see an Ankara side with little to play for off. Ankara shouldn't be discounted, they're a decent enough side, but I fancy Sivass to get the points they need. Back them at 2. with most firms to do so.
Aston Villa v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Normally I'd avoid Wigan matches, and avoid watching Villa or Wigan matches. A pair of more turgid sides there is not in the Premier League. But, this time I'm keen to be involved. Villa are priced a bit longer than usual as it's all to play for for Wigan, and I think this is a bit of an error. Villa will still want to push as high up the table as they can, the players need to prove themselves, and the club will make more money that way. Darren Bent is always good for a goal against teams of Wigan's quality, or lack thereof, and I think Villa will probably nick it. Wigan are in the position they are for a reason. And that reason is their complete lack of quality barring Rodallega and McCarthy, neither of whom are scoring enough either. Get on Villa at 1.85 with Paddy Power now.
West Ham v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
This match is the definition of a relegation 6 pointer. The Hammers have retreated back to the majority of the seasons form since February's renaissance and are looking diabolical again. Blackburn have tried to play more football since the removal of Lamb Shank lookalike Big Fat Sam, but have failed miserably. They look toothless up front since the reinstatement of Jason Roberts, funny that, and leak goals at the back at an alarming rate. They've been particularly poor away from home so far this season and the Hammers must win this one to have a hope of staying up. And, I think they'll do it! They may be out of form, but they'll know it's now or never, and their strikers will all be playing to impress other managers and stay in the league even if the club fall. I see them giving their fans some hope to cling to. They are 2.0 are most firms and I'd take that.
Man Utd v Chelsea, Sunday 1610
The Big One at the other end of the table at Old Trafford. The home of the Asian fan hosts Chavski on Sunday and Utd will presumably be confident enough with their mostly imperious home form. Chelsea have hit form just at the right time to make a late push for the title and must win this or it's really all over for them, and possibly Ancelotti. Fernando Torres finally has his first goal, but still looks like a summer spent resting would do him good, and Drogba looks back to his best when through the centre. United have all their big guns to call on after resting most against Schalke, somewhat devaluing UEFA's premier competition, and Sir Wrigley will know this will finally be the title to beat Pool's 18 title record. He will send them out fired up for this. Wayne Rooney is back, and in one of his goal gluts, and I reckon he'll get one in this. David Luiz still leaves too much space and he should exploit this. I think the 2.4 at Paddy Power on a United win is good value as is the quotes of 2.6 for Rooney anytime with the same firm.
Valencia v Real Sociedad, Saturday 1700
A top v bottom clash from La Liga on Saturday afternoon. Valencia are in good goalscoring form with 15 goals in their last 6 matches and Roberto Soldado has 7 of those. He is in the form of his life and is greatly enjoying the service of the likes of Juan Mata and Joaquin. Sociedad have climbed to mid table, but are still only 4 points clear of relegation. They beat Barcelona last week, with the Catalans clearly having both eyes on Madrid in the week. They have wrapped up the title and know they can afford to drop points and rest for the Champions League. So I wouldn't read into that result too much. A more revealing stat is that they have lost 13 of their 17 away matches, and Valencia have only lost 4 times at home. They should coast this one and I'd back Soldado to score anytime at 2.05 with Victor Chandler.
Genoa v Sampdoria, Sunday 1945
The Genoa derby is on Sunday night in Serie A and it's usually a feisty affair! The two clubs have had fairly mediocre seasons this year and local pride is about all that's left to play for now. Since selling Antonio Cassano Samp have looked goalshy and have slumped to midtable. Genoa have lacked goals all season and that has kept them well away from European football next year. Expect all those anxieties and anger to be taken out on each other in this. Especially with the crowd baying after all day to get tanked up. I would back a Red Card at 2.7 with Unibet.
Bucaspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1800
Three games left to play and Trabzon and Fener are still locked together at the top of the table. They have been putting everything into their games of late knowing that any slip up at this stage will probably see them out of the race for the SuperLig. Some of the other matches have proved hard to predict with teams lacking effort in some matches then coming out all guns blazing next time, but the two giants have been all out all the time. They are a very short 1.3 away from home, but rightly so in my opinion. Bucaspor are 8 points away from safety and can be relegated if they lose this, and they will. Trabzon have led at half time in their last 4 home matches and have gone on to win them all from that position. That makes quotes of 1.83 at Paddy Power on such an eventuality look very appealing to me.
Sivasspor v Ankaragucu, Sunday 1800
This one sees Sivasspor with the chance to make sure they spend another seaosn in the SuperLig. As mentioned in the above tip, Bucaspor are 8 points adrift of Sivass with three to play. They play at the same time, but I'm sure Sivass will see this as perfectly winnable and be able to make themselves safe. They have had a revival since xmas and should see an Ankara side with little to play for off. Ankara shouldn't be discounted, they're a decent enough side, but I fancy Sivass to get the points they need. Back them at 2. with most firms to do so.
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