Another short break...

Once again I offer my apologies for the absence of a blog for a couple of weeks. I have been involved in a job hunt that has finally reaped reward and hopefully now will be able to get back to consistently completing the blog every week at least once.

I realise it has not been the start to the season on here that we wanted either. The break has also given me a bit of time to go back over the tips I have been giving out and I am still confident in the majority of them. However comma I am also free of ego enough to admit there have been a few that I would not have given if things were going better, clutching at straws a bit perhaps. From here on out I will endeavour to get back to basics.

Week 8

Stoke v Sunderland - Win 1.88 points.
Cardiff v Manchester United - Win 3 points.
AC Milan v Genoa - Win 2.35 points.
Sampdoria v Lazio - VOID.
Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach - Win 1.42 points.
Augsburg v Hoffenheim - Lose 2 points.
Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo - Win 1.52 points.
Levante v Villarreal - Lose 2 points.

Weekly Totals - Win 6.17 points.
Running Total - Lose 11.46 points.

Cardiff City v West Brom, Saturday 1500

Every season there are usually teams I follow on here due to personal opinion differing from the general consensus amongst odds compilers for the bookies. Cardiff this season seem to be one of them. I don't think they're going to be pulling up trees, but I think they are a better side than the odds suggest quite often. This match is a case in point and also benefits from the reverse being true about their opposition. I think it's actually quite an interesting dynamic in particular in WBA's case that I'll go into shortly. Cardiff are a perfectly decent side, with a pretty solid defence being helped by a strong central midfield that perhaps lacks a consistent goal threat. I think Frazier Campbell is a better player than Danny Welbeck though and a bit underrated. I would see Cardiff picking up plenty of points this season from sides around them due to being tough to beat and having a player like Gary Medel who would improve Man Utd, Liverpool and Chelsea's midfields.
On to my theory! Traditionally the odds for football, and most other sports, are derived with a decent amount of weight being given to past performance. In football this can often go back a season or two to get a broader sample size for calculations and hopefully a better average indication of performance. This will naturally be altered by the odds compilers, but they are still generally starting from the point of maths initially. The problem I see with this now is keenly indicated by WBA. Last season they were a terrific side who battled hard and then had Romelu Lukaku in particular getting them goals. They used the loan system very well to get him, but he has gone now and had a huge influence on how I would have set their odds, but the matches he was involved in have been included in the working out of the odds. This season they are not doing nearly as well, and are currently winless in five matches, and seventeen goals only is a major part of that. Where such an important player can now be moved around so easily I don't always think the loss is assessed in the setting of the odds, hence WBA are still being priced up as a side who should finish between seventh and tenth, when without a replacement goal threat they will be very unlikely to do so.

Back Cardiff City at 2.68 with PinnacleSports. 2 points.

West Ham v Sunderland, Saturday 1500

This is a match where I don't think the prices have been adjusted enough with the way the season is panning out. West Ham spent the majority of their transfer budget on Andy Carroll in the summer and he has been out injured for nearly all the season so far. This has seen them fielding either Modibo Maiga or Carlton Cole or no striker at all. The problem is exasperated by the midfield being very workmanlike, but not posing a threat on goal at all. As with most Sam Allardyce sides they are pretty resilient at the back, although this seems to be waning, but without a punch they simply won't win matches. They have now dropped to level on points with the relegation spots and I don't foresee an improvement before January when they can bring in a new striker. This ought to be a chance to get back on track, but Sunderland have at least looked like they're regularly trying.
I think Sunderland will still be very likely to be relegated to the Championship come the end of the season, let's start with that. Gus Poyet is probably a slightly better manager than Paolo Di Canio, but I don't necessarily think he has much hope of keeping the Black Cats in the Premier League. You can see there is a fight and focus that was previously lacking, but I don't think there is enough cohesiveness to the team or quality in key positions. John O'Shea and Wes Brown are seasoned professionals, but were never super fast and have slowed a lot at the back. Lee Cattermole is a constant accident in waiting in midfield and Jozy Altidore would probably be an effective player in a better side that could feed off him. That being said they are the side I'd be with at the odds this weekend.

Lay West Ham at 2.07 on Betfair. 2 points.

Lazio v Livorno, Sunday 1400

Lazio are a side surrounded by speculation of a change of coach at present. This is down to a run of six winless games, with only one win in the last nine matches. They haven't really invested in the playing staff too much for a few years now and the whole place seems a bit stagnant and under-motivated from the outside. The likes of Miroslav Klose and Hernanes are both fine players, but Klose is approaching retirement age and Hernanes looks bored most weekends. They should beat Livorno on paper, but odds of almost 1.5 in most places look far too short to my eyes.
Livorno started their season well and were hovering around the top seven after seven matches, but have since trailed off a bit. A 4-0 thrashing from a Napoli side in their best run seemed to be a blow to confidence, but they have rarely been well beaten since then. Their last four matches have seen them play Juventus, Inter Milan, Chievo away and AC Milan, not a great run for a side in Italy. They almost beat AC Milan last weekend, but a late Mario Balotelli equaliser levelled things up. On the handicaps they look appealing to me.

Back Livorno +1.0 at 2.1 with MarathonBet. 2 points.

Napoli v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945

Napoli almost did enough to qualify at Arsenal's expense in the Champions League last night by beating the Gunners 2-0 in Naples. Unfortunately for Rafa Benitez side they ran out of time to get a third goal and will drop into the Europa League. The win itself will be very welcome though after a terrible run which has had supporters questioning Benitez's methods. One win in four may not seem dreadful in Serie A, but it has coincided with Juventus going on a seven match winning streak and extending their lead over Napoli to eight points as we approach the winter break in Italy. Two of the losses were to Parma and Juventus themselves, who were down to ten men, and Napoli had looked lost in the absence of midfield maestro Marek Hamsik. I don't think their problems are over yet and they look short against a decent Inter Milan side.
A lot of credit for Napoli's rise through Italy has been rightly given to Inter Milan's new manager Walter Mazzari and he has quickly improved Inter too. They are currently failing to win enough matches to be challenging at the summit of the table, but have been beaten just once all season. They also have a league leading seven draws so far. I would actually prefer to be with them away from home as they are unbeaten so far with three wins and four losses, but it is their goals for and against that is most impressive. They have scored nineteen and conceded just six in those seven matches to show how hard a Napoli side the manager has an inside track on will find it.

Lay Napoli at 2.01 on Betfair. 2 points.

Levante v Elche, Friday 2000

This season Levante have not been as good to us as in previous seasons, but they haven't been being well beaten in the matches we have been with them. This gives me enough confidence to keep an eye on them a little longer as my reasoning for siding with them has always been how tough to beat they are more than that they will blow sides away. They come up against Elche in the Friday night match in La Liga. Levante are now below Elche in the table, and a lot of it is down to only winning one match in seven at home so far with three draws and three defeats. They have only been beaten by more than one goal in two matches this season, with one being against Barcelona away and the other against a seemingly very good Villarreal side. They look a little short to win this one though and turn the corner. I think I am in fact going to go against them!
Elche were promoted over the summer and have done fine in their first season in the Primera in a while. They sit in mid-table approaching the half way mark and also seem to have a tough to beat nature that their hosts share. Away from home they go two wins, three draws and two defeats. I personally think they are a little long in this match considering how tough they have also been to beat so I'll get against Levante for the first time in a long time.

Back Elche Draw No Bet at 2.5 with Stan James. 2 points.

Real Sociedad v Real Betis, Sunday 1600

Real Sociedad have seemingly actually decided that the Champions League is too much for them and instead concentrated on re-qualifying via the league. They didn't have an easy draw, but should have done better in a group containing an out of sorts Man Utd, Bayer Leverkusen and Shakhtar Donetsk. They seemed a bit awestruck on occasion and weren't putting in enough effort to do very well at all. But, they currently sit sixth in Spain and well positioned to have another shot at qualifying for the Champions League next season. Their home form is very strong with four wins, two draws and just one defeat, which was to Atletico Madrid. They have also scored sixteen and conceded just six in those seven matches. They have proven very capable of dispatching poorer sides with ease.
Which leads us on to a desperately poor Real Betis side. They currently sit rightly bottom of the table and were recently hammered 4-0 in their derby with Sevilla. Away from home they so far have a solitary point from their one draw with six losses also. They have scored just five in that time and conceded nineteen. The records tell a story here which looks ominous for Betis. Sociedad may look short, but I'm happy enough when you take into account the complete lack of quality or spirit at Betis.

Back Real Sociedad at 1.78 with PinnacleSports. 2 points.

Hannover 96 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430

This one has made me take notice after thinking to leave Hannover alone for a while. They seem to not be getting the results they have in previous seasons and as a result currently languish in the bottom half of the table. However, a home record of won five, drawn two and lost just once is none too shabby at all. It is away from home where the problems lie and there aren't many easier matches than this one currently. The blip for Hannover seemed to be a 4-1 reverse at home by Hoffenheim where they were also reduced to nine men. This has led to one win in five since, but they simple 2-0 home win against Frankfurt in their last home match gives me confidence.
Nurnberg are still yet to win a match as we approach the winter break. They have drawn nine matches in total with their away record being drawn five and lost three. They have only scored fourteen goals in total, nine away from home, and this is a huge problem for them in a league like the Bundesliga that is high scoring. They have been beaten by most decent sides away and I think there's a pot of value in the Hannover price still at under even money.

Back Hannover 96 at 2.0 with SportingBet. 2 points.

Wolfsburg v Stuttgart, Saturday 1700

This one looks to me like it could be a great one to watch. Wolfsburg are currently flying pretty high in the table on the back of a great home record. They have played seven, won five, drawn one and lost just once with fourteen scored and just five conceded. What interests me is that they have conceded in four of their last five matches home and away and whether this suggests their defence is not as great as at first glance. Germany is a high scoring league anyway, but Wolfsburg have generally conceded a few in previous seasons and my thought is that the early season clean sheets are the blip not the norm.
This interests me because Stuttgart seem to be involved in some very high scoring matches and also seem to have no problem in going for goals at any cost. This tactic would seem to be further backed up by an away record of having won three, drawn one and lost four with fifteen scored and eighteen conceded. That they have scored as many away as a team in fifth, Wolfsburg themselves, have at home is quite something. They seem to tighten up at home a bit and play it slightly safer, or possibly don't get given the same time and space being an away side can sometimes achieve. I think Wolfsburg look a bit short at a general 1.7.

Lay Wolfsburg -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.35 on Betfair. 2 points.

Stick with me here...

Hello again all, after a short break for the World Cup 2014 Qualifiers and numerous friendlies. I did have a flutter on the matches, but only came out marginally up and hadn't the time to do blogs I'm afraid. However, we are now back to domestic action and looking to again try and claw back some of those early losses. We have been hit by the odd freakish result, such as Espanyol losing at home to a Sevilla side fourteen months after their last away win, but these should even out over time.

Week 7

Southampton v Hull City - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Arsenal - Lose 2 points.
Atheltic Bilbao v Levante - Win 3.33 points.
Espanyol v Sevilla - Lose 2 points.
Choevo v AC Milan - Win 1.7 points.
VFL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Nurnberg - Win 1.2 points.

Weekly Total- Lose 1.77 points.
Running Total - Lose 17.63 points.

Music from Jason Isbell and The 400 Unit with Alabama Pines.

Stoke City v Sunderland, Saturday 1500

I am still not sold at all on Mark Hughes management of Stoke after some initially promising results. Credit to him for buying actual full-backs and attempting to play slightly more attacking, but he seems to have already reverted back to more Pulis-esque tactics. This is a lot to do with the fact he has not completely overhauled a squad built in Pulis image, with the likes of Jon Walters (a striker who's best attribute is his work-rate) and others where graft was more of a selling point than guile. They've only won once at home so far, with three draws and a loss, and goals are holding them back. I don't see this changing before January and new players being brought in.
Sunderland started horrendously under Paolo Di Canio's management with the initial shock well worn off as a motivational tool. I actually think he brought in some useful players in the summer, but there was so many and he tried to integrate them all at once. The likes of Emanuele Giaccherini and Jozy Altidore are international class players and shouldn't have been struggling like they were. Since the introduction of Gus Poyet as manager he seems to be putting more tactical nous into the side, and no little bite. Having Jack Colback and Lee Cattermole in midfield it's a statement he wants the side to battle. He was also adept at the nastier sides of grinding out a result when at Brighton and I'd expect the same from Sunderland. The lack of goals at Stoke and a backs to the wall approach could well see Sunderland leave with something.

Lay Stoke City at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.

Cardiff City v Manchester United, Sunday 1600

Cardiff have started the season pretty well in my opinion. They're only two points above the bottom three at present, but the table is so clogged up that a couple of good results would see them shoot up the league. I think a huge part of this was the addition of Gary Medel over the summer. He may have been expensive at £12million, but he is a class act. He provides excellent passing, huge energy and no little aggression along with the experience and leadership he has learned in his career. That Malky Mackay's job is under pressure is ludicrous to me with the side looking capable most weeks of getting a result and he seems to have invested pretty wisely. They are another side who are having problems scoring goals, with only nine in eleven so far, but I am more siding with the defence in this one.
Manchester United seem to have changed their fortunes slightly since the initial poor start under David Moyes management. Having watched a fair bit of them in action though I am still not sure they've actually improved, just got a few better results. The midfield is still an obvious area of concern, especially with Marouane Fellaini seemingly already dropped, but I would suggest the strikers are the only ones performing. I actually think Cardiff may win the midfield battle in this match and that should give them a key advantage. United's defence is unlikely to be tested too much aside from set-pieces so they are counting on the strikers firing and I think they too are under-performing. Wayne Rooney is working hard, but not scoring, and Robin Van Persie looks less interested than last season with rumours he is not happy with the new manager continuing.

Lay Manchester United at 1.67 on Betfair. 2 points.

AC Milan v Genoa, Saturday 1945

AC Milan are in trouble again, as they were early on last season. The team is still going through a change in direction towards youth and lower costs and the effect is that they are way off a title challenge at present. There are some good players in the side, such as Mario Balotelli, but they are underperforming, Balotelli again, or just plain out of form, Stephen El Shaarawy. The defence is a long standing issue that was again unsolved over the summer and manager Max Allegri is under pressure to get results. They haven't won in four matches and have also failed to score in the last two. There are problems throughout the side and I think the manager will be gone before January.
Genoa appointed Gian Gasperini as manager and he has shocked everyone with how quickly he has improved the side in his return. He has a very individual system using wing-backs and fortunately for him Genoa haven't really coped since he left for Inter Milan and are capable of slotting back into this system. They are actually above AC Milan in the table and I think the handicaps are a little too generous for me to bet on Genoa.

Lay AC Milan -1.0 Asian Handicap on Betfair at 1.85. 2 points.

Sampdoria v Lazio, Sunday 1400

This match sees a couple of sides who don't score many meeting in Genoa. Sampdoria have been struggling to get going this season and currently lie in the relegation spots, third bottom. The problem seems to lie in the complete lack of goal threat they have which has seen them only score seven in twelve matches, and four in six at home so far. They have also lost four from six at home so far, but have only been beaten by more than one goal three times so far. I don't think they're miles away from getting draws from matches, and more if they can recruit a striker.
Lazio are in eighth currently thanks to their amazing home record of winning four, drawing one and losing one so far. Away from home they have drawn three and lost three. In those six away matches they have scored six and conceded twelve so far. The conceding shouldn't be too much of a factor here with Sampdoria's dreadful goals for record, but Lazio will not be scoring loads either the way they are set up. I think Goals Under is the way to go in this one.

Back Under 2.0 Goals Asian Totals at 2.19 with 32Red. 2 points.

VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach, Friday 1930

Stuttgart seem to consistently be finishing just away from the European spots in the Bundesliga and I would have them down for the same again this season. They are a rare case of being better away from home with a home record so far of won just one, drawn three and lost one too. They aren't being beaten, but are struggling for goals compared to their away performances. They're a relatively attacking side so the balance between defence and attack doesn't seem to be right to me yet. They have only won once in the last five games and come up against a Monchengladbach side performing very well.
Borussia Monchengladbach are a side reborn this season so far, particularly at home. They have won all six at home so far with goals for twenty and only four conceded. The partnership of Max Kruse and Raffael has been brilliant so far for them. Away from home they have only won one, drawn one and lost four, but they are unbeaten in six games and two of the losses were to Bayern Munich and Leverkusen. They are in great form and look a good bet for best of the rest to me if they can avoid injuries to key personnel.

Lay VfB Stuttgart at 2.4 on Betfair. 2 points.

Augsburg v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430

Augsburg now look like a side who may stay around in the Bundesliga after intially struggling following their promotion two years ago. This has been down to a style of play that focusses on defence and puts not losing ahead of winning matches. For Germany a record of scoring thirteen in twelve isn't great, but it has given Augsburg three wins from six at home to keep them afloat. They have conceded twenty three in all their matches though to show that they can be gotten at by attacking sides. They're scoring enough to be above relegation, but are only beating the sides around them.
Hoffenheim look a bit better to me this season than they have since their initial success after promotion. They went through a lot of changes in manager and playing staff following that first season and never truly settled down. This saw them almost relegated last season and a more stable environment sought out by senior level management. Markus Gidsol was brought in as manager and they are again looking to unearth players from abroad and lower divisions. So far they have been better away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two from five with fourteen scored and twelve conceded. I think Augsburg look short against a side who have positives where the home side have negatives.

Lay Augsburg at 2.17 on Betfair. 2 points.

Real Sociedad v Celta de Vigo, Saturday 1700

Real Sociedad have at times this season looked like the extra games in the Champions League have taken a toll on a smallish squad. They currently lie in seventh position having struggled away from home with just one win on the road so far. However comma at home they go won three, drawn two and lost just once so far with twelve scored and just three conceded. They were thrashed by Real Madrid last time out, but were unbeaten in three before that with eight scored for no reply in their last two home matches. The international break should actually have seen a number of their best players getting a rest, like Antoine Griezmann (suspended from French duty) and Carlos Vela (still not back in with Mexico) so they could well fire on every cyclinder.
Celta Vigo look like they may well be in trouble this season to me. It's tight in La Liga again, but not winning at home yet makes me very worried about them. Even if they have won three away so far. They have had real trouble scoring at home and seem happier when the shackles come off away from home. They are up against a very good side in Sociedad though and the price looks fair to me.

Back Real Sociedad at 1.76 with PinnacleSports. 2 points.

Levante v Villarreal, Sunday 1100

I keep following Levante, and I will continue to do so until they prove me wrong. My assessment is they are undervalued by odds compilers, with respect to how hard they are to beat. On paper it is far from a brilliant side, but they get results through sheer effort and force of will at times. The worry here is that they have only won once from six at home with three draws and two defeats. The caveat for me is that they have only conceded five in those six matches and just need to score a few more to turn this around. It may not happen immediately, but they look long for a tough to beat side against newcomers.
Whilst Villarreal are new to La Primera this season following promotion, they have started exceptionally well. They may actually suit the top division better as they retained class in Cani and Bruno Soriano who are again showing themselves to be excellent midfielders. They sit fourth in the table with seven wins from thirteen so far, and three away from home. They are scoring far more at home than away though, with just six for them away so far, and that makes me think they may struggle to win this one.

Lay Villarreal at 2.2 on Betfair. 2 points.

The start of something?

Last weekend saw a return to profitable ways for us on the blog and left me with a better feeling about my handle on things. As mentioned last week it has been a summer of change around Europe in terms of where teams are in their own divisions. This is not uncommon, obviously, but the start of the season can sometimes be difficult to immediately spot who has changed, and most importantly for betting, how they've changed. For instance, in the Premier League I see in the top six or so that Arsenal, Liverpool and Southampton have improved, Tottenham and Chelsea have changed (in terms of defence/attack balance) and also that Manchester United have regressed. I think I am now in a position where I have better assessed the leagues I cover regularly, although I'm not completely confident on Turkey yet, and results should improve naturally with this.

Music from The Holy Mess with My Boring 90's.

Week 6

Arsenal v Liverpool - Win 2.66 points.
Everton v Tottenham - VOID
Real Betis v Levnate - Win 1.92 points.
Almeria v Real Valladolid - Lose 2 points.
AC Milan v Fiorentina - Win 1.72 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Stuttgart - Win 0.76 points.
Hertha Berlin v Schalke 04 - Lose 2 points.
OGC Nice v Bordeaux - Lose 2 points.
Bursaspor v Fenerbahce - Win 0.96 points.

Weekly Total - Win 2.02
Running Total - Lose 15.86 points.

Southampton v Hull City, Saturday 1500

Southampton are one of the sides I have had to slightly adjust my pre-season thoughts on. I had them marked as again slightly struggling, but they appear to have set themselves up as a hard-working, high pressure defensive side who will make anyone earn a goal against them. This should easily keep them out of trouble and could yet see them push for a European place for next season, or a cup win, but the attack is yet to fire. Two of their biggest signings of this season and last were Gaston Ramirez and Pablo Osvaldo, but neither is scoring. With Osvaldo in particular, they might have been warned, as he has a record of stroppy behaviour. This seems to have been the case again here as he has not linked up with the rest of the attack at all. I still think Rickie Lambert is a better bet as he works harder and possesses no little skill and threat himself.
Hull City are another side presently confounding many peoples expectations. I am absolutely no huge fan of Steve Bruce, but this is more the case if you want to see your club pushing on up the Premier League. He was fine at keeping Wigan and Sunderland afloat, but struggled to take either side on, despite being gifted an awful lot of cash to do so at Sunderland. Hull have been built similarly to Southampton with defence in mind first of all, but they have almost no goal threat in the side. Tom Huddlestone and Curtis Davies have been stand out players so far, but although Huddlestone can be creative he does not score. Bruce signed Danny Graham hoping he would repeat his success in Swansea's promotion season, but he seems stuck in a hopeless goal drought at present. They should keep Southampton fairly restricted, but I don't see them getting a goal.

Back Under 2.25 Goals at 2.3 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Manchester United v Arsenal. Sunday 1600

Both of these sides have undergone some serious changes over the summer, but for completely different reasons. Manchester United finally said goodbye to Alex Ferguson and brought in David Moyes from Everton as his replacement. I would imagine a huge part of this decision was due to the way Moyes consistently pushed Everton up the table on a very limited budget. The owners, the Glazers, must realise they have been left miles behind in terms of spending power and also must have been aware that Ferguson was getting an ungodly level of performance out of an, on paper, fading side. Unfortunately for Moyes, he was only given Marouane Fellaini as an addition to the squad. He should have added energy to a pretty listless midfield, but he has yet to find a way of doing so. The only players in the squad I see improving are David De Gea and Rafael, with the obvious class of Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney, but the rest of the squad seems ageing, unmotivated or just not good enough. They have looked better of late, but nowhere near a side who could sustain a title challenge for me.
Arsenal are now five points clear at the summit of the Premier League and people are now beginning to wonder if they can sustain this for an entire season. I personally feel that if you can get 5.0 on them winning the Premier League it's an excellent long term bet. They might not be this consistent the whole season long, but I couldn't say that of any other side either. The defence had been mentioned by me last season as being very unfairly derided, but is now getting some of the credit it deserves. Arsene Wenger seems to have settled on a back four of Bacary Sagna, Per Mertesacker, Laurent Koscielny and Kieran Gibbs who are benefitting from playing together every week. The midfield and forwards look in fantastic form, even those on the bench like Tomas Rosicky when they are brought in to the side, and are scoring plenty. They haven't lost away this season so I think their price is currently huge.

Lay Manchester United at 2.32 on Betfair. 2 points.

Athletic Bilbao v Levante, Saturday 1900

Athletic Bilbao finally completed their move to a new stadium from their wonderful old ground and have benefitted from this so far. They are so far unbeaten at home with four wins and two draws from their opening six home matches. They have scored twelve and conceded just six in those matches, but they have won just one in the last six matches and look to have tailed off from their flying start to the season. They've not struggled to score, but they have still not tightened up at the back enough for me to have any confidence in them at such short odds.
Levante are a side I have been with for the last two seasons and I am still not sure that the compilers have correctly assessed them this season either. We profited from betting against Real Betis last week when against Levante and they followed this up by narrowly being beaten in stoppage time at home to Granada. That was only the third loss of the season and the first by a side who are not Barcelona or Real Madrid. They have also only conceded five goals aside from the matches with Barcelona and Real in their other ten matches. They may not win this, but are well worth being with in some format.

Lay Athletic Bilbao at 1.6 on Betfair. 2 points.

Espanyol v Sevilla, Sunday 1100

I don't always put two bets up from La Liga, but this week I think they're both too good to miss. Espanyol look like they may be one of the sides who push for European football next season given a quarter of the season has already gone and they look a solid side. They don't score many, but they press opposition sides very hard and make getting a result from them very difficult indeed. At home they have so far won three, drawn two and lost just once. They have beaten Atletico Madrid a few weeks ago and only lost 1-0 away at city rivals Barcelona last week. They look a good chance at the odds.
Sevilla are another side in Spain, like Valencia, who are now a few years past the position their odds suggest. Sevilla were a phenomenally good side under Juande Ramos with the likes of Dani Alves and Freddie Kanoute playing for them. They were capable of beating anyone and were part of a top four with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Valencia. Sadly, this is no longer the case. They no longer possess anyone a good club would particularly covet, especially with Geoffrey Kondogbia joining Monaco over the summer, and teams fancy gaining points against them. They have not won away yet this season and I see that run continuing.

Back Espanyol at 2.42 with SBOBet. 2 points.

Chievo v AC Milan, Sunday 1400

Chievo have only won one match so far this season, but they are not being soundly beaten. In previous years they have relied upon a very good home record to keep them away from trouble and I think they could yet get better. Their problem has been scoring goals, considering how poor their results have been the fact they have conceded eighteen in eleven is not awful. They have drawn 0-0 last weekend and were only beaten 1-0 by Roma and 1-2 by Fiorentina previous to that. If they could improve upon their dreadful goals for record of just five so far then they'd have more of a chance.
AC Milan are seemingly discussing things at boardroom level as how they can improve their start to the season. This was also the case last season and they backed Max Allegri to improve the side and added Mario Balotelli who fired them up the table. Unfortunately this season the forwards, including Balotelli, haven't fired at all, with Balotelli and Stephen El Sharaawy currently out of the side. They have also conceded goals at an alarming rate and were beaten at home last weekend by Fiorentina. This is a winnable match for them, but I can't see them getting many.

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.85 with MarathonBet. 2 points.

VFL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430

Wolfsburg have started the season with a particularly good home record of having won four matches and lost just once in five. Strangely that solitary loss was to bottom side Eintracht Braunschweig in a 0-2 reverse. They have won three on the bounce since that defeat with seven scored and two conceded. My problem with this record so far is that they have not beaten a good side yet and Borussia Dortmund are currently proving to be one of Europe's best sides in every match. They have conceded ten in their away matches, where they have played far more decent sides, and this is a worry. I think they're due a big defeat and this could be the match they get it.
Borussia Dortmund lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal last night in the Champions League. They matched one of Europe's other form sides in every area though and could consider themselves unlucky to lose the match. In the Bundesliga they are almost imperious having lost just once all season. This was away at a very good Borussia Monchengladbach side where they were by far the better side throughout and simply had an off day in front of goal. They were the same odds for that match and Gladbach are a better side than Wolfsburg, that's enough for me.

Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.8 with BetVictor. 2 points.

Borussia Monchengladbach v FC Nurnberg, Saturday 1730

I avoided Borussia Monchengladbach last season whilst they adjusted to the loss of their best defender and forward to Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund respectively. Dante has gone on to establish himself as a vital part of Munich's team, as has Marco Reus at Dortmund. They were conceding too many and not scoring enough, but this season they seem to be a lot better under manager Lucien Favre. The Swiss is famed for his ability to organise a defence and with the addition of striker Max Kruse they look a lot more potent in attack. They have won all five home matches so far with seventeen scored and just three conceded so far, with Kruse scoring four and strike partner Raffael getting six. Having watched them dismantle a good Frankfurt side two weeks ago, I foresee an easy win in this one.
Nurnberg are currently struggling no end and have yet to win a match this season. They have been slightly better away from home, having drawn five and lost one in six, but they have conceded ten in those games. They have scored eight, but are coming up against a very good defence and exceptional attack who make those statistics look very ominous indeed to me. I would have Monchengladbach as a 1.5 shot so the available 1.6 is fine by me.

Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 1.6 with BetBright. 2 points.

Steady improvements...

Another weekend and sadly again no massive gains were forthcoming. I stand by the fact that Hannover 96 represented excellent value at 2.4, they kicked off at a general 2.1, but an early sending off hurt that one. As I have mentioned before, betting is not an exact science, it's gambling after all! The key is that you never bet more than you can afford to lose. It is also dictated by results. If you take a scan back over the almost 3 years of tips on my blog you will see gains have been made and I certainly still think I have an eye for a value bet. Over time these will come good. That Hannover 96 lost does not make it a bad bet.

Music from Lucero with Last Night In Town.

Week 5

Liverpool v West Brom - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Stoke City - Win 1.94 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Valladolid - Lose 2 points.
Juventus v Genoa - VOID
Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt - Win 2.3 points.
Lorient v Sochaux - Lose 2 points.
St Etienne v Paris SG - Lose 2 points.

Weekly Totals - Lose 5.74 points.
Running Total - Lose 17.88 points.

Arsenal v Liverpool, Saturday 1730

Before the season started not many people would have predicted how big this game would have been at the top of the table. However comma both sides have started the season very well and go into this match looking to prove points about how improved they are. Arsenal's very late signing of Mesut Ozil has seemingly given them a huge boost, as well as a player I consider to be one of the world's very best. The 'defensive issues' often commented on are nowhere near as bad as they've been made out, even last season Arsenal had one of the best defensive records in the Premier League. There is a lot of experience in the first choice back four of Bacary Sagna, Per Mertesacker, Laurent Koscielny and Kieran Gibbs. With Wojciech Szczesny also looking like he has added a maturity to his goalkeeping ability it's a great backbone. The midfield looks a lot stronger for the return of Mathieu Flamini too. The Frenchman isn't a Patrick Vieira type, but he is relentless and also adds a commanding voice where one has often lacked. With the calm passing and attacking link-up of Mikel Arteta and Aaron Ramsey alongside it's an excellent midfield. A frontline of Mesut Ozil, Santi Cazorla and Olivier Giroud looks perfectly rounded too.
Liverpool have come on in leaps and bounds under Brendan Rodgers, despite initial doubts about whether he had the necessary experience to cope. He has been fortunate to inherit a striker of the class of Luis Suarez, but has added to the side well, although they are far from complete to my eyes. Simon Mignolet is a decent goalkeeper, but no more for me. The back four can also look pondersome and lacks genuine pace, although Mamadou Sakho should help with that once fully settled. Rodgers hasn't really played a good side since re-integrating Suarez though and this will see the side fully tested. The current system is set-up to get the best out of Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, but gives away an awful lot of chances at the back. I think Arsenal are well placed to take advantage of those gaps.

Back Arsenal at 2.33 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Everton v Tottenham, Sunday 1330

Two sides who changed an awful lot over the summer meet at Goodison Park on Sunday. Everton moved to replace David Moyes with Roberto Martinez as manager. I was one of a few who were dubious about how well Martinez would do given that he had just taken Wigan down and had never got the defence right at all in his time there. So far he has injected a new liveliness to Everton's play that they had lacked under Moyes and is doing very well, their best start in many years. His signings of James McCarthy permanently and Gareth Barry and Romelu Lukaku on loan have been brilliant. McCarthy adds workrate and bite to midfield, Barry is a steady influence and seems to have a new lease of life and Lukaku is again making a mockery of Chelsea's continued willingness to let him out on loan. They are currently unbeaten at home with three wins and a draw. With Kevin Mirallas also looking a more regularly impressive performer Everton look one of the best sides at present. I'm not sold on Tottenham's defence and with Lukaku netting five in his last five I think Everton have a great opportunity here.
Tottenham are not quite firing on all cylinders under Andre Villas Boas yet. I think they did incredibly well to get so much money for Gareth Bale and have reinvested wisely, but the team has yet to gel. This is hardly surprising, but there are murmurs of discontent already. This atmosphere doesn't help and adds pressure to the players. I see a huge problem as the striker. Tottenham have plenty of options in midfield and behind the striker, but Roberto Soldado doesn't look the right man to be at the peak to me. He is not big enough to hold the ball up and doesn't contribute defensively, he's a poacher more than anything. There's nothing wrong with that in the right system, but I think Tottenham would be much better served by a player like Romelu Lukaku and his attributes. Tottenham's lack of goals and 120 minutes of Carling Cup action last night make Everton's price look appealing to me.

Back Everton Draw No Bet at 1.85 with MarathonBet. 2 points.

Real Betis v Levante, Thursday 2100

This one really does stand out to me at the odds. Real Betis returned to La Liga last season and ended up surviving fairly easily, almost qualifying for European football. In Spain though this can easily happen with the difference between sides other than the big three all much of a muchness. A good or bad run for five or so matches can see a side above the relegation spots suddenly look like a top seven side. This season Betis find themselves second bottom with only two wins in ten. They have both come at home, where they go won two, drawn one and lost two with six scored and five conceded. They're not winning by much and that could easily go against them.
Levante are again confounding expectations and looking towards European qualification. They are no different to a lot of sides in Spain in that they have an exceptionally limited budget, but they have a track record of good investment. It again looks like they have got a side that's tough to beat and in fact have a superior away record so far, they have actually only lost twice all season so far and that was to Real Madrid and Barcelona. Away from home they have won three, drawn one and lost one with six scored and ten conceded. Take away the opening day defeat away at Barcelona and that's three wins and a draw with six scored and just three conceded. They look a great option here.

Lay Real Betis at 2.04 on Betfair. 2 points.

Almeria v Real Valladolid, Saturday 1700

Almeria look like this seasons certainties for relegation. They've never exactly set the division alight, but have started horrendously and look well short of the quality required to get up the table.So far they have only won one match, although that was an impressive 2-1 win away at Valencia last weekend. They've actually not struggled for goals either, but are conceding at an alarming rate and have yet to keep a clean sheet. At home they have drawn two and lost three for an aggregate of minus four goals.
Real Valladolid showed up at Rayo Vallecano last Friday night and ruined our first bet of the weekend. Rayo are another side who leave gaps all other the pitch as they like to attack and Valladolid picked them off ruthlessly. Once Rayo were chasing the game they hit them for a 3-0 away win. I don't see this Almeria side as particularly different so they look a short price to me for a win.

Lay Almeria at 2.2 on Betfair. 2 points.

AC Milan v Fiorentina, Saturday 1945

AC Milan are again looking very unlikely to make any sort of title challenge under Massimo Allegri. That's not to say the Italian is doing a bad job as manager, it's just an effect of the cost cutting that has gone on in the past two seasons. It now also looks like Mario Balotelli has possibly got the hump following a sending off and early removal in quick succession and his agents comments this week talking up a January move. Whilst he's certainly a loose cannon and possibly trouble, he's the best player AC have for me. The side look much better when he plays well, particularly with Stephen El Sharaawy currently out of form and the starting eleven. This can be seen in one win in the last four matches without Balotelli playing well and I can't have them at such short odds against a good side.
Fiorentina have become a very entertaining side under the management of Vincenzo Montella. They are up to fifth at this early stage and look the best side besides Roma, Napoli and Juventus to me. They have only lost twice so far and just once away, where they currently have an enviable record of won three, drawn one and lost one. This has been achieved whilst scoring ten and conceding five to show that Montella lets his side play their football and go for goals even on the road. AC Milan are in the doldrums and I expect Fiorentina to make things very tough for them.

Lay AC Milan at 2.14 on Betfair. 2 points.

Borussia Dortmund v Stuttgart, Friday 1930

Ok, ok, it's not a particularly inventive bet to start off in Germany. However, it cannot be ignored how well both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich are currently playing. In this case it's Dortmund I am looking at. Jurgen Klopp may have lost one of Europe's hottest atatcking midfielders to Munich this summer in Mario Gotze, but to show his club's current brilliance they seem to have improved the side when reinvesting the 37 million Euro's they received. Plenty of clubs were looking at Henrikh Mkhitaryan of Shakhtar Donetsk, but Dortmund bought him in and have been rewarded with his continued goalscoring and a work-rate which fits right into the Dortmund style of play. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was a good striker for St Etienne in France, but Klopp saw potential for the lightning quick forward and he has added a great new element to the side when coming off the bench or starting when Robert Lewandowski needs a rest. They won the derby away at Schalke in fine style last weekend and look great at present.
Stuttgart have started a little better than in recent seasons and are currently in eight position in the Bundesliga, which is roughly where I would have them in the overall standings. They have been slightly better away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two so far with eleven scored and eight conceded. They so seem happier to go for a win when away, but this will play right into Dortmund's hands if they continue with that approach. I see an easy win for Dortmund so will play the handicaps.

Back Borussia Dortmund -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.38 with MarathonBet. 2 points.

Hertha Berlin v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430

Hertha Berlin returned to the Bundesliga this season and have looked like a very good side so far. Last weekend they gave Bayern Munich probably their toughest game so far when taking a 1-0 lead into half time and only narrowly losing 3-2 in the end. At home so far they have an excellent record of won four and lost just once with eleven scored and three conceded. This shows how good their defence has been and with over two goals a game scored too that's a fantastic record. The forward line of Ronny, Adrian Ramos and the two Tunisians Anis Ben-Hatira and Sami Allagui have scored fourteen between them so far to show how well they operate as a unit.
Schalke 04 have been very up and down so far and seem to be struggling to keep everyone at peak playing powers every week. Injuries have so far robbed them of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and Jefferson Farfan and the experience they also bring. In certain matches the youthful exuberance and skills of Julian Draxler or the sheer force of Kevin Prince-Boateng have pulled them through, but both of these players look tired already and in need of a proper rest. They were not good at all last weekend in the derby and have an identical record of won two, drawn one and lost two both home and away so far. I think they may well get worse before they get better and Hertha look an attractive price here.

Back Hertha Berlin at 2.5 with SpreadEX. 2 points.

OGC Nice v Bordeaux, Sunday 1300

Last weekends first look at France was not a success, but I am going to persist with it for now to see if there's much value to be had in a league not many bet on in the UK. There is a lack of goals which means that draws are at a lower price than in many countries, but equally this should lead to larger odds on either side to win. Therefore if you can find a good bet you may well be getting a slight advantage. OGC Nice have come on the last couple of seasons to be one of the better sides in Ligue Un when discounting the monied Paris SG and Monaco. Home form is particularly important to them and so far they go played five, won four and drawn one with no losses and ten scored with just three conceded. This average of two goals for them per game is the reason I am interested in the bet.
Bordeaux are a long time past their title victory under current Paris SG manager Laurent Blanc. Most of the players that excelled that season were sold on and Bordeaux have returned to being a mid-table side with a small budget. They are currently in fourteenth position in the table and have an atrocious record on their travels. They haven't won away in five matches, having drawn four and lost once. They have scored seven and conceded eight in those matches. It could be argued that they are not losing, and that is something, but I think they're tight odds when Nice have such a good home record.

Back OGC Nice at 2.55 with BetVictor. 2 points.

Bursaspor v Fenerbahce, Saturday 1700

Bursaspor have again had trouble scoring in the Super Lig so far. Turkey's league is generally a low scoring affair outside of the Istanbul three anyway, but Bursaspor stand out as particularly poor considering their resources and relatively recent title victory. In their first nine matches they have only scored eight times to show just how much they are struggling. At home they have only won once, drawing three and also losing once. Three goals in those four matches is just not good enough at all. They are not conceding many so far, but when they did meet an in-form Besiktas they conceded three goals. It should be borne in mind that they are on a three match winning streak without conceding, but these were all against far lesser opponents than Fenerbahce.
Fenerbahce look like the side to beat at this stage of the Super Lig. Besiktas started well, but have already fallen away slightly to leave Fener four points clear at the top at present. They have a well balanced side, having learnt from the past mistakes of bringing in big names and loads of attackers without any particular idea of how to fit them into a functioning team. The only match they have lost so far was on the opening day to Konyaspor away and it's also the only away match they haven't won so far. Since then they have won three away matches, scoring six and conceding three. Bursaspor should provide a stiffer challenge, but I don't see them getting a win.

Lay Bursaspor at 3.1 on Betfair. 2 points.

Onwards and upwards...

Sorry about the pause in blogs, but I have been in the midst of seeking gainful employment so have been a bit distracted. The last blog up was also the last weekend of domestic action after a break to finish the World Cup 2014 qualifying the world over. Sadly for us I again posted a loss. I would say I have been slightly behind in the changing of the guard in a few countries so far and am now hoping that I have got properly on top of where I believe teams are in the grand scheme of things now. This should lead to a more profitable blog, although I will still say that nearly all my tips have been at better odds than kick off and we have seen an absurd number of goals in the last five minutes of matches costing winning bets!

Music from Ben Nichols with Toadvine, yet more alt-country!

Week 4

Cardiff City v Newcastle United - Lose 2 points.
Hull City v Aston Villa - Win 1.2 points.
Levante v Real Madrid - Win 1.8 points.
Inter Milan v Roma - Lose 2 points.
Udinese v Cagliari - Win 1.94 points.
Hannover 96 v Hertha Berlin - Lose 3 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor- Lose 2 points.

Weekly Totals - Lose 5.06 points.
Running Total - Lose 12.14 points.

Liverpool v West Brom, Saturday 1500

Lets's return to an old theme for the first up. Liverpool seemed to be set at more realistic prices at the end of last season, but it seems a decent start to this season has seen silly ones returning. I personally think Liverpool are building a decent side, albeit slowly. Their forward pairing of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge backed up by Phillipe Coutinho is very strong and their defence looks much more solid. I am not at all sold on new signing Simon Mignolet in goal as yet, nor am I particularly impressed by the midfield in the main. They are narrowly winning games at the moment, and that's no bad thing, but they don't look miles ahead of anyone to me, which is what the odds here would suggest. Pricing them up at a general 1.4 should really indicate they're going to have a pretty easy time of it against West Brom. Something to bear in mind is that Liverpool have tired in every match so far and have not 'won' a second half all season. If they can be frustrated then they can be stopped.
West Brom have again shown themselves to be a very decent Premier League side under the management of Steve Clarke. They have also made an excellent signing in Morgan Amalfitano and also brought the exciting striker Saido Berahino into the squad. Both these players have excelled in attacking positions and somewhat eased the worry about missing last seasons loan star Romelu Lukaku up front. Clarke was always an excellent number two and seemed to improve the tactical and organisational sides of clubs he worked for and seems to be carrying that on at WBA. I would actually fancy him, of most Premier League managers, to set up a side to contain Liverpool. Due to the odds being so low on Liverpool though I am going to give us a handicap to help.

Back West Brom +1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.4 with BetInternet. 2 points.

Manchester United v Stoke City, Saturday 1500

As I mentioned in my last blog, I think Manchester United are currently suffering from the same short prices Liverpool have previously. They are clearly still a good side under David Moyes, with some very talented players, but they are not as good as the odds would suggest. The main problem I see with the odds is that Moyes is an inherently cautious manager at present and this is holding the side back from pushing on to get a comfortable lead in matches. Their last match was a perfect example of this with Southampton not being killed off and snatching a late equaliser at Old Trafford. A side with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Robin Van Persie, Shinji Kagawa and also Nani, Antonio Valencia, Javier Hernandez and more should not be struggling to score goals, but they are. You can then throw in the loyalty Moyes is showing to an under-performing centre back partnership between Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic. He has re-introduced Jonny Evans recently, but I'd expect Ferdinand and Vidic to again be preferred for this match.
Stoke City started the season well and manager Mark Hughes was being lauded for the quick time he had seemingly instilled a more attractive style of play into his side. However comma since then the performances have got poorer and the team have reverted back to the comfort of a more 'industrial' style. This is to be expected after so many years playing that way, but Hughes is facing some criticism for it. The good point from the worse results of late is that due to the teams defensive schooling they are not getting beaten by much. With that in mind, and United's short price, I think there is again room to play the handicap markets here.

Lay Manchester United -1 Handicap at 2.03 on Betfair. 2 points.

Rayo Vallecano v Real Valladolid, Friday 2000

Rayo Vallecano are a side that make no apologies for thinking only of entertaining their fans and attempting to score more than the opposition. The problem with this is that when the forward players are not on top of their game the side can be embarrassed defensively. This was certainly the case for the earliest part of this season when they failed to get a point for six matches after starting the season with a win against newly promoted Elche. However, since then they have notched two 1-0 wins, one at home and one away, to move back up the table. This new resoluteness in defence bodes well as they are still not firing on all cylinders and makes me believe they are a side on the up at present.
Real Valladolid are one of those sides who seem to perenially be in the middle of the table. This is something they will be perfectly happy with at present with the lack of money around for all outside Barcelona, Real and Atletico Madrid in La Liga. A couple of good signings can push a side like them for Europe, although that doesn't look likely to happen this year. Valladolid have not won an away match either this season, with two draws and two losses so far. They have also only scored three and conceded seven so far in those matches and I really don't like their chances in this one.

Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.2 with William Hill. 2 points.

Juventus v Genoa, Sunday 1400

Juventus' manager Antonio Conte has done an exceptional job in restoring the Turin side to the top of Serie A and re-establishing them in Europe too. They have by far the best squad in Italy and can consider themselves to be one of the better sides in all of Europe. This was all certainly true last season. Conte himself warned of the third season being the most difficult of all in terms of maintaining performances and that looks to be true so far. A number of the players who have served him so well look to be getting a little complacent and Giorgio Chiellini and Ginaluigi Buffon both seem to be creaking for the first time. The signings of Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack haven't been a roaring success. Tevez has fitted in fine, but Llorente is rumoured to be finding the lifestyle switch impossible already. They do sit third in Serie A at present having won all three of their home matches with an aggregate score of nine to four, but have shown signs of weakness in most matches.
Genoa appointed Gian Piero Gasperini as manager this season and have looked a better side for it. After being given the reins at Inter Milan and then not backed to succeed his reputation was hugely damaged, but he is doing fine restoring this now. They do sit fifteenth in the table, but have tightened up considerably the last two matches to draw 1-1 with Catania away and beat Chievo 2-1 at home. I think they may well lose this one, but can't resisit again playing the handicaps on such a short priced home win.

Back Genoa +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.8 with BetInternet. 2 points.

Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430

Now, I've been let down a couple of times more than usual in Germany so far, but I still think this will turn around and I'm making the correct calls. Hannover are a side I will always look out for as long as they keep the same direction as they are currently following. They never seem far away from the top end of the table, but fail to gain the reputation the likes of Werder Bremen or Wolfsburg have from title wins a few years gone now. They are similar to someone like West Brom under Steve Clarke I think, albeit with more about them in attack. They have so far played five home matches, winning four and drawing the other for an aggregate of eleven goals for and only four against. They're a good side worth following.
Hoffenheim blazed through the leagues in Germany to the Bundesliga followed by a blaze of publicity for doing so. Once the first half of their first season was over though, they have found it much harder going. Culminating in almost being relegated back to the Bundesliga II last season. They seem a much more settled club now under the management of Marcus Gidsol, but are not any better than mid-table for me. They have only actually won two matches from nine so far with three draws from five propping them up at home. Away from home they have won one, drawn one and lost two with ten scored and eleven conceded. They're providing entertainment, but Hannover are good enough defensively to see them off.

Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.

Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt, Sunday 1630

A side I am also now back keeping an eye on is Borussia Monchengladbach in Germany. Two seasons back they were very profitable for followers with Marco Reus spearheading their attack and an incredibly well-drilled defence keeping most sides at bay. When Reus moved to Borussia Dortmund last summer they went through something of a transitional period trying to figure out a new way of winning games without relying on the mercurial forward. They seem to have finally settled on a system of attacking involving more players now, but have also kept enough defensively too. This is particularly prominent in a home record of played four, won four with thirteen scored and only three conceded. They even beat a Borussia Dortmund side who look back to their very best last time but one out. They then lost to Hertha Berlin away to show that all is not quite sorted yet away from home.
Eintracht Frankfurt did exceptionally well last season following promotion to find themselves in European competition on Thursday's. Unfortunately for them they look the epitome of a side where the extra competition is too much for the squad and are struggling to balance the league form alongside Europa League matches. This week sees them playing Sunday to allow for recovery, but this doesn't seem to have gone as hoped as yet. They have been better away from home so far, but are now travelling to one of the best around for home form and will struggle I think.

Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.15 with SportingBet. 2 points.

This week, as mentioned previously, I will be changing my other league of focus. I am going to have at look at France's Ligue Un this time. Turkey has become something of a chore and whilst I may return to it in the future, I am not motivated enough to trawl for news at this time. Sometimes that break can be good to get some focus back, let's hope this is the case here!

Lorient v Sochaux, Saturday 1900

My first pick in Ligue Un is a lay. Lorient are currently third bottom of the table in France and look set to struggle for the majority of the season. This is mainly due to a truly horrendous away record of having played six and lost six, scoring three and conceding twelve. They have won two of four at home so far, but have only scored six, whilst conceding the same number. Goals are not a problem just for Lorient, it's a French thing, but they are nevertheless really struggling.
Sochaux are second bottom and have managed a draw and four losses when away from home so far this season. They have scored four and conceded thirteen in those matches, which is obviously broadly similar to Lorient's away form. They have only won one match at home, but have drawn two, whilst scoring five and conceding seven. Lorient may well be the better side so far, but not by enough for me to justify being an odds on favourite in this match when goals are at such a premium.

Lay Lorient at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.

Saint Etienne v Paris SG, Sunday 2000

This may seem an obvious bet to start off in France, but I think there is some value in it. Saint Etienne are a regular side in the top half of the table in France and this season so far looks like that will be the case again. They have a good home record, as seems to be the case for most Ligue Un sides, in comparison to one their travels. The problem with the odds giving them credit for that is that, in my opinion, Paris SG are miles ahead and have not been treated as such here. St Etienne go won three, drawn one and lost one at home with nine scored and seven conceded. My main worry here is the seven conceded as that is very high in a league as low scoring as Ligue Un.
That in mind Paris SG's expensive attackers look to be coming into form now. Zlatan Ibrahimovic seems to have thrived in France and revelled in his role as the key man in the side, not to mention in attack. The addition of Edinson Cavani over the summer has looked a tad unnecessary at times, but they clicked on Wednesday night when dismantling Anderlecht. Laurent Blanc isn't my idea of a top level coach, but he almost can't fail in charge domestically with the amount of fine players he has at his disposal. I'm backing them to be in a rich vein of form and for their excellent away record of won four and drawn one to be won five and drawn one come late Sunday night.

Back Paris SG at 1.8 with BetVictor. 2 points.

Small gains...

After two weeks starting off with losses we hit the black last weekend, with Saturday a particularly good day. I've always pointed out the intention of this blog is not for people who want a 15 fold odds-on accumulator each weekend, it's for long-term gains. In my opinion, barring an enormous slice of luck, these will only come with extensive research and planning. So revel in the huge profits when they come, but remember that there could be a complete reverse another week. And that's this weeks lecture over with!

A couple of early thoughts this week are concerning Manchester United and Turkish football betting. It is beginning to be an idea in my mind that United may well start to look like Liverpool in the odds this season, or at least for a while. I think there is a decent chance that they will continue to be priced as one of the very best sides in the league, when close examination does not bear this out at all for me. I see an excellent goalkeeper, a disorganised and ageing defence, a mid-table at best midfield and a good selection of attackers being ignored or mis-used in some cases. So I will have a close eye on looking to lay them if this is borne out in the setting of the odds. My thought on Turkish football is that I may well look to move on to another league as a regular feature. I no longer spend as much time researching the Super Lig and would possibly have more chance moving on to the French Ligue Un or the Dutch Eredivisie, or even lower league English football. I'll stick with the Super Lig this week, but any feedback on that would be appreciated.

Music from the Lawrence Arms with 100 Resolutions.

Week 3

Tottenham v Chelsea - Win 1.05 points.
Hull City v West Ham - Win 1.44 points.
Osasuna v Levante - Win 1.71 points.
Cagliari v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hambury - Win 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg - Win 0.66 points.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.

Totals - Win 1.36 points.


Running Total - Lose 7.08 points.

Cardiff City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500

There's a very decent chance I'll follow Cardiff City a bit this season as I'm impressed with them more than the odds makers by the looks of things. I have mentioned before how I believe defence very often is the area I believe the odds should move around. This is even more the case when you are looking at laying sides or playing the handicap markets as sides may well get draws or even only lose narrowly when the match odds reflect a huge advantage for the opposition. That is not the case here though. Malky Mackay's side spent the big money this summer on Steven Caulker and Gary Medel to shore up the defence and midfield and that looks very wise right now. There is not the same level of talent in the forwards, but there's enough there to try and nick goals that can win matches from the solid defensive base they have. I think this will particularly be the case in home matches like this.
Newcastle United are still being priced above their abilities all too often for me. There is definitely some good players at the club, Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye being the obvious examples, but I'm unconvinced by Alan Pardew. On top of that the club itself seems unsure of what direction it is going in from the lack of leadership from Mike Ashley and the appointment of Joe Kinnear as Director of Football. At present it looks like Yohan Cabaye will make it to the starting line-up and that changes things a bit as the side improves drastically for his presence, but not enough in my opinion. Not to justify Cardiff being so long in places.

Back Cardiff City at 2.43 with PinnacleBet. 2.5 points.

Hull City v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500

This might be a theme for a few weeks yet! I actually think Hull City, similarly to Cardiff City, are being slightly underestimated by the odds setters. In this case it isn't so much for their own strengths, defence again really, but in comparison to the clubs in the bottom half of the Premier League. Whilst they have no stand out players, aside from the excellent so far Tom Huddlestone, they don't look any worse to me than someone like Norwich or Fulham or even Aston Villa. My point really is that only Crystal Palace look miles off the necessary quality and Hull could well pick up some good points, especially if they can solve their goals problem. This will possibly not be until January though as currently it's only really Danny Graham for them and he's hugely out of form.
Aston Villa are an incredibly strange side. With Christian Benteke playing they are sometimes worth considering at one of the big boys as if they can stay organised he can cause anyone problems. However comma he is currently out injured anyway. You can point out last weekends win against Manchester City in his absence, but that looks a complete aberration to me and is best ignored. I'm still unsure whether Paul Lambert is being clever with bringing in young, hungry players or whether it's a convenient excuse when results go against them. I will continue to give him the benefit of the doubt for now because of his previously impressive record in management and because it is the norm in Germany where they are currently producing some excellent sides. This week though they look a little short. I'd back Hull, but they don't have enough goal threat for me so I'll be a layer.

Lay Aston Villa at 3.2 on Betfair. 2 points.

Levante v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900

I've actually made similar bets to this in the previous two seasons for the same game and been very close to getting it spot on. I've previously layed Real Madrid in the Match Odds market.
Levante have started the season decently in La Liga and got another respectable result last weekend with a 1-0 win away at Osasuna. They again look a side who will be difficult to beat and that is shown in their current record of only having lost once in seven matches this season. They have drawn all three home matches so far and have only conceded once in those matches. They seem to always punch above their perceived weight and are doing so again.
Real Madrid look very much like a side Jose Mourinho has left at present. His methods are not to be dismissed when in charge of a side as he gets great results and certainly improved Real too for the most part of his reign. But, he does seem to always leave sides looking tired and squabbling and this is no exception. The hierachy at Real have not helped by selling their main provider, Mesut Ozil, failing to sign a striker to help Karim Benzema and signing a player for a world record fee they did not require, Gareth Bale. Add this to the problems Mourinho left and Carlo Ancelotti suddenly looks like he has a huge job on his hands. They are no bad side, but the home loss to Atletico Madrid last weekend again showed their are big issues around.

Back Levante +2 Regular Handicap at 1.9 with Stan James. 2 points.

Inter Milan v Roma, Saturday 1945

The two sides that have surprised most people so far this season in Serie A are meeting at the San Siro on Saturday night. Both under new managers and they have improved immeasurably already it seems. In the case of Inter Milan it is former Napoli manager Walter Mazzari who has been given the chance to try and improve the side that has steadily declined since Jose Mourinho and the treble. There is probably not a better manager in Serie A for the job for me and he already looks to have sorted out a previously porous defence straight away. Bringing in Hugo Campagnaro was a master-stroke as the experienced defender has played under Mazzari loads and helps every other player adjust to the new methods employed. Whilst Ricky Alvarez had a poor match last weekend he has been rejuvenated as an attacker also and his replacement on Sunday, Zdravko Kuzmanovic, looks like he's coming along well again too.
Roma currently sit top of Serie A having won all six matches so far under Rudi Garcia. The man that guided Lille to Ligue Un titles and saw the development of Eden Hazard and Gervinho has seemingly unlocked the latter again. He is a believer in the high intensity pressing game favoured by the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp and it is getting results. This can clearly be seen in the fact they have often not been ahead at half time, but the way they tire the opposition out results in winning the matches anyway. The only criticism so far is that they have yet to play a 'good' side, Inter Milan provide this test. I think they may well come unstuck finally here thanks to Mazzari's great experience in Italy paying off.

Lay Roma at 3.15 on Betfair. 2 points.

Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1400

I was a big follower of Udinese around two years ago for about six months as I thought they were being greatly under-appreciated. They were giving Juventus something to think about at the top of Serie A thanks to an excellent scouting system that kept finding new players for the first team. The likes of Alexis Sanchez (Bracelona), Gokhlan Inler (Napoli) and Cristian Zapata (AC Milan) are all examples of the players Udinese have found and sold on at huge profits. This has now seen the team reduced to upper mid-table, but they should still harbour hopes of Europa League qualification. Antonio Di Natale is probably in his last season now, but he is still capable of turning a match with a goal when fit. In this sense no European football is keeping him largely available for league matches at least. They have only lost away this season so far and have won two from three, with a draw, at home whilst scoring five and only conceding two.
Cagliari are also unbeaten at home, but have also failed to win away from home with two draws and a loss so far. They have conceded in every match so far too, which worries me slightly with my previously mentioned emphasis on defending. Cagliari, have in fact only won one match all season and I can understand the odds being as they are here. I don't think there's any huge value in this price, but I think it's still backable.

Back Udinese at 1.97 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Hannover 96 v Hertha Bsc, Friday 1930

This is not to be missed in my opinion. Occasionally the foreign leagues will throw up prices that look excellent to those who follow them and this looks the case here. Hannover 96 are one of my favourite teams to side with due to their consistency and under-appreciation by bookmakers. They always finish near the top of the Bundesliga and invest very wisely to add players who fit a system that works very well for them. The lack of stars also aids them in holding on to their players with many flying under the radar or being presumed to only fit the system at Hannover. They have started the season well again, particularly at home where they have won four from four with a goals for record of ten compared to only three conceded. They have lost all three away matches to temper things a bit, but you can't ignore quality over time and that home record.
Hertha Bsc were promoted over the summer and have not looked out of place so far. In fact, they currently sit in fifth, one place behind Hannover 96. This is also on the back of an impressive home record of played four, won three and drawn one. But, they also seem to struggle away from home where they are yet to win with a record of played three, drawn two and lost one. It could also, rightly, be argues they've had a relatively easy start so far and this should be their first real test. I think they'll come up short against a side with as much experience in the top division as Hannover and one going so well so far.

Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 3 points.

Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430

This season Borussia Monchengladbach have started very well and sit near the top of the table at this early stage. They have been excellent at home and currently have three wins from three with a whopping eleven goals scored and only two conceded. This would suggest that some of the issues they have experienced since losing Marco Reus to the visitors have been solved. At various times they have struggled to replac his constant goal threat with a more attacking approach, but this at times left them very vulnerable at the back. This was previously a strength and it looks like they may have sorted this out a bit. To temper this optimism a little bit, they have yet to win away from home. They have a record of played four, drawn one and lost three on the road with only three scored and six conceded. From what I have seen the defence isn't bad away either really, but they haven't committed enough men to attacking to cause trouble.
Borussia Dortmund have started fantastically in their attempts to get back their Bundesliga title from Bayern Munich. So far they have won six and drawn one with a  league high of twenty one scored and only five conceded. They've been known the odd slip though. I still think the odds are generous to back them here
though.

Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.73 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Karabukspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800

Sorry this one is so late in being given!
Karabukspor were one of the best of the rest last season in the Super Lig thanks to a counter attacking approach. This actually saw them beat Fenerbahce in Istanbul such was it's success. They did lose start striker Lamine Diarra, but have started well so far. They have a good home record of played three, won two and drawn one. This is with no goals conceded either. Their away form is far more patchy, but this is not unusual at all in the Super Lig and I think they're priced very generously for this.
Bursaspor have again started a season poorly and sit two places off the bottom at present. They actually often seem to gain points all over the place rather than the league norm of relying on home form to gain them points. This can see them in small runs of either horrendous form, or great play depending on the mood seemingly. They are present ly in a poor run and I think they are there to be opposed.

Back Karabukspor at 2.92 on Betfair. 2 points.

Third times a charm...

Another loss last weekend I'm afraid, but one thing to draw from it on the positive side. Those of you that follow the blog due to the perceived 'value' betting I aim to provide will be pleased to know that every bet put up last weekend, with the exception of Liverpool, had shortened (for backing) or lengthened (for laying). This is by no means a reason to celebrate, as we lost out again, but is an indication that I think the tips are still worth following and should turn around for us all.

Music this week from Off With Their Heads with Drive.

Week 2

Liverpool v Southampton - Win 3.6 points.
Cardiff v Tottenham - Lose 2 points.
Osasuna v Elche - Lose 2 points.
Sassuolo v Inter Milan - Win 2.12 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Braunschweig - Win 0.8 points.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen - Lose 2 points.
Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi - Lose 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray - ABANDONED - Refund 2 points.

Totals - Lose 1.48 points.

Running Total - Lose 8.44 points.

Tottenham v Chelsea, Saturday 1245

The early kick-off on Saturday has a few storylines running through it. The master and the apprentice relationship between Jose Mourinho and his former assistant Andre Villas Boas being the main one. They have not exactly been the best of friends since their parting of ways and they bring two of the leagues best sides so far to this match. Tottenham have somewhat slipped under the radar for their good start, probably due to not blowing sides away as yet. I always put emphasis on sides defensive attributes now having been stung previously when preferring attacking stats. Tottenham have so far only conceded a single goal this season and have also not lost. The signings made over the summer with the Gareth Bale money, for me, make them a much stronger side and I certainly wouldn't rule out a serious push towards the peak of the table the way they're going. If they sign another reliable striker in January they would have almost a perfectly balanced squad. Villas Boas also seems to be handling the rotation of players well in these early days.
Chelsea haven't started as well under Jose Mourinho as many expected. You could even argue that Rafael Benitez had them playing better towards the end of last season. That being said, Mourinho is not doing terribly. The main gripe people have is with his, now typical, sidelining of formerly important players. The fact he has done this at seemingly every club he has managed has made his decision to keep Juan Mata and David Luiz away from the side seem a little childish to some observers. Chelsea look to me to be a typical Mourinho side currently, just without a reliable goalscorer. The decision to let Romelu Lukaku go out on loan and to be stuck with Fernando Torres and Demba Ba shows up the paucity of Chelsea's options. I think Mourinho would happily leave this match with a draw and his side look a bit short for a win to me.

Lay Chelsea at 2.88 on Betfair. 2 points.

Hull City v West Ham, Saturday 1500

I'm struggling a little bit to find anything that stands out as a bet in the Premier League at the weekend to be quite honest. It's never easy anyway, but only this and the Fulham v Cardiff match seem to represent anything like value for me. I'm going to plump for this as the payout will be bigger!
Hull have started the season better than many expected under Steve Bruce following promotion. I have mentioned before that I am not at all sold on Bruce's abilities as a manager and think he's often wasted a lot of money on not improving Birmingham and Sunderland. However comma he can certainly get a side to a position of safety in the Premier League, I just wouldn't expect any more. With Hull he looks to be going the same way. To give him some more credit I also believe the signing of Tom Huddlestone may well be one of the best bits of business this summer. Whilst he never lived up to his early billing at Tottenham he showed that even in the higher reaches of the league he can be a valuable player. His early passing and settling influence in Hull's midfield have been a huge boost to the side. Unfortunately with only Danny Graham as a striker Hull do look a little light on goals.
West Ham are still after a first away win in six months in the Premier League. This didn't harm them too much last season as they finished tenth and could be put down to a definite tactical approach by manager Sam Allardyce. Allardyce has always been a pragmatist and will know that his side aren't going to crack Europe any time soon and that mid-table is about their position. With this in mind their best chances are to avoid relegation scraps and hope for a good cup run or surge up the league. This will be done on the back of not losing many away matches and making the Boleyn Ground something of a fortress. So the set-up for away matches is damage limitation. They also lack a goalscorer, especially with Andy Carroll again suffering from an injury.

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.72 with Stan James. 2 points.

Osasuna v Levante, Sunday 1100

Osasuna made hard work of winning last Friday and beating our laying of them against newly promoted Elche. I would argue that the odds were definitely a bit on the short side. They are struggling for goals themselves and have found their usually tough and resolute defence more leaky than in previous years. In fact, they have conceded in every match so far to have a record of played six and conceded twelve. I think they're worth another look at laying here against a better side at similar odds.
Levante have turned up some great profits for those that have followed the blog for a few seasons. To look at their side you wouldn't necessarily see any reason for them to get in the higher reaches of La Liga, but they seemingly always get around European football. This can be put down to great management and clever signings in my opinion. They sign players who have often previously played well, but been released for free due to injuries or a poor season, or older players deemed to be at the end of their careers. They then seem to nearly always coax out some good performances and create an all-for-one spirit. They've only lost one match this season and that was the 7-0 defeat at Barcelona on matchday one.

Lay Osasuna at 2.17 on Betfair. 2 points.

Cagliari v Inter Milan, Sunday 1400

Cagliari opened the Serie A season with a win, but have not won in the four matches since. They have, in fact, drawn their last three matches and have conceded in every match so far. They finished last season in mid-table and I think they'll probably be there or thereabouts again this season. Their problem is in the fact that they concede quite a lot of goals and they seem to have done nothing about that over the summer. To be honest this is a bet more on Inter Milan than against Cagliari though.
I have so far won on every match involving Inter Milan so far this season as they have drastically improved already under new manager Walter Mazzari. This hit it's peak in last weekends 7-0 destruction of Sassuolo in Sassuolo. It shows just how much of a difference a sensible managerial appointment can make as Mazzari has improved every club he's been with and has seemingly done it again. He has tightened up the defence whilst rejuvenating the attack and now also has Diego Milito returning from injury and already back amongst the goals. Ricky Alvarez was hailed as a coup buy when brought in, but had then looked underweight and seemed destined to leave before Mazzari came in and relieved him of defensive responsibilities to see him probably Inter's best player so far as a playmaker. They've already got an away win at Catania (always difficult) to add to the Sassuolo win and I think Mazzari's tactics are worth backing again.

Back Inter Milan at 2.11 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV, Saturday 1730

Eintracht Frankfurt had a storming return to the Bundesliga last season and managed to qualify for the Europa League. The problem for a side when this happens is that the addition of an extra competition can weigh heavy on squads. A team is very unlikely to have put together a large, balanced squad for domestic and European football and a second season drop off can occur. Frankfurt should stay well clear of any problems, but three losses from six match and two losses from two at home show that they may well face issues this season. They have actually fared better away from home so far and that comes into my thinking also.
Hamburg again look like they may be in trouble and have dispensed with manager Thorsten Fink, who had looked a little callow for the role. Looking at the talent available to him within the squad I would say that is the right decision considering the quality of his replacement. The club have just moved to bring in ex-Holland coach Bert van Marwijk, who also has previous managerial experience in the Bundesliga from his time at Borussia Dortmund. He is also something of an expert in crisis aversion having taken over Dortmund after their bankruptcy and Holland after yet another period of internal strife. He steadied Dortmund and guided Holland to a World Cup final. There should be an improvement in form under him and I think Frankfurt might see an early good result with European football again on the horizon.

Lay Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.8 on Betfair. 2 points.

Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg, Saturday 1430

The two big boys of the Bundesliga have flown out of the marks this season and currently Borussia Dortmund are impressing more. There was huge disappointment at the club when it was announced that Mario Gotze would be moving to Bayern Munich, but they seem to have improved the side with the money brought in. Henrik Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have slotted in seemlessly and have added more goals and pace to an already formidable attacking line. Even the decision to let Robert Lewandowski see out his contract seems to not have affected his form with him putting in no less effort for the team. And then there's Marco Reus. He's becoming more and more appreciated outside of Germany, but I consider him to be one of the finest attackers in Europe. His constant running and positive movement have fitted right in at Dortmund and he is thriving again this season. The team have scored sixteen in six already and whilst there are issues at the back, they'll be unlikely to be exploited this weekend. It's going to be a two horse race in Germany, but with two fine horses!
Freiburg were probably the surprise package of the Bundesliga last season, but were taken apart by bigger clubs over the summer. They finished fifth in the league and qualified for the Europa League and are another side ill-equipped for the extra competition. The German Dfb Pokal was also on this week and this will add another match to their diaries before the leagues form side turns up. It doesn't look good for Freiburg.

Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.22 with ComeOn! 3 points.

Elazigspor v Sivasspor, Sunday 1400

My Turkish tips have not come up great so far this season. Whilst I still think there's value in the draws in such a low scoring league I may move away from that particular shout as it's prone to leave you very disappointed if a late winner is scored for either side!
Elazigspor were promoted last season and did ok to finish safely in lower mid-table away from the dangers of a relegation scrap. As many sides in Turkey do they relied upon home form to drag them through and only lost four matches in their own ground all season. They drew seven too as well as winning six with a brilliant goals against record of seventeen. Their problems lay in the fact they only managed to score fourteen in those seventeen matches. That they have already scored four in two home matches, for a win and a draw, is therefore an encouraging sign of improvement for them. They are unbeaten so far and look a strong team.
Sivasspor so far have a very stereotypical record for the SuperLig with two wins and a loss at home and two defeats from two away. I've often mentioned the fact that outside of the biggest sides in the division and the odd form side win away from home. They've conceded six in those two away matches and look short odds to get anything out of this match.

Back Elazigpor at 2.58 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1700

Kasimpasa are shaping up to be the Super Lig's entertainers so far with them scoring in every game after their season opener. In their other four matches they have been involved in two matches with three goals and matches with four and five goals. What this backs up is that their defence leaves a lot to be desired, but that their attack is good and they seemingly keep plugging away, possibly without learning! The Turkish matches seem to often be priced up as though all matches are even and that means low on goals.
Eskisehirspor are often to be found nearer the top than the bottom of the table. Their away form last season was actually ok by Turkish standards with seven draws, six losses and four defeats in total. The best part was that they only conceded twenty goals in those matches, a fine record for anyone outside the Istanbul giants. They have already conceded four away from home in this seasons two matches though. They have in fact been involved in a 2-1 and a 3-2 in their last two matches showing that at present the balance between attack and defence is off.

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0 with BetInternet. 2 points.