Stick with me here...

Hello again all, after a short break for the World Cup 2014 Qualifiers and numerous friendlies. I did have a flutter on the matches, but only came out marginally up and hadn't the time to do blogs I'm afraid. However, we are now back to domestic action and looking to again try and claw back some of those early losses. We have been hit by the odd freakish result, such as Espanyol losing at home to a Sevilla side fourteen months after their last away win, but these should even out over time.

Week 7

Southampton v Hull City - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Arsenal - Lose 2 points.
Atheltic Bilbao v Levante - Win 3.33 points.
Espanyol v Sevilla - Lose 2 points.
Choevo v AC Milan - Win 1.7 points.
VFL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Nurnberg - Win 1.2 points.

Weekly Total- Lose 1.77 points.
Running Total - Lose 17.63 points.

Music from Jason Isbell and The 400 Unit with Alabama Pines.

Stoke City v Sunderland, Saturday 1500

I am still not sold at all on Mark Hughes management of Stoke after some initially promising results. Credit to him for buying actual full-backs and attempting to play slightly more attacking, but he seems to have already reverted back to more Pulis-esque tactics. This is a lot to do with the fact he has not completely overhauled a squad built in Pulis image, with the likes of Jon Walters (a striker who's best attribute is his work-rate) and others where graft was more of a selling point than guile. They've only won once at home so far, with three draws and a loss, and goals are holding them back. I don't see this changing before January and new players being brought in.
Sunderland started horrendously under Paolo Di Canio's management with the initial shock well worn off as a motivational tool. I actually think he brought in some useful players in the summer, but there was so many and he tried to integrate them all at once. The likes of Emanuele Giaccherini and Jozy Altidore are international class players and shouldn't have been struggling like they were. Since the introduction of Gus Poyet as manager he seems to be putting more tactical nous into the side, and no little bite. Having Jack Colback and Lee Cattermole in midfield it's a statement he wants the side to battle. He was also adept at the nastier sides of grinding out a result when at Brighton and I'd expect the same from Sunderland. The lack of goals at Stoke and a backs to the wall approach could well see Sunderland leave with something.

Lay Stoke City at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.

Cardiff City v Manchester United, Sunday 1600

Cardiff have started the season pretty well in my opinion. They're only two points above the bottom three at present, but the table is so clogged up that a couple of good results would see them shoot up the league. I think a huge part of this was the addition of Gary Medel over the summer. He may have been expensive at £12million, but he is a class act. He provides excellent passing, huge energy and no little aggression along with the experience and leadership he has learned in his career. That Malky Mackay's job is under pressure is ludicrous to me with the side looking capable most weeks of getting a result and he seems to have invested pretty wisely. They are another side who are having problems scoring goals, with only nine in eleven so far, but I am more siding with the defence in this one.
Manchester United seem to have changed their fortunes slightly since the initial poor start under David Moyes management. Having watched a fair bit of them in action though I am still not sure they've actually improved, just got a few better results. The midfield is still an obvious area of concern, especially with Marouane Fellaini seemingly already dropped, but I would suggest the strikers are the only ones performing. I actually think Cardiff may win the midfield battle in this match and that should give them a key advantage. United's defence is unlikely to be tested too much aside from set-pieces so they are counting on the strikers firing and I think they too are under-performing. Wayne Rooney is working hard, but not scoring, and Robin Van Persie looks less interested than last season with rumours he is not happy with the new manager continuing.

Lay Manchester United at 1.67 on Betfair. 2 points.

AC Milan v Genoa, Saturday 1945

AC Milan are in trouble again, as they were early on last season. The team is still going through a change in direction towards youth and lower costs and the effect is that they are way off a title challenge at present. There are some good players in the side, such as Mario Balotelli, but they are underperforming, Balotelli again, or just plain out of form, Stephen El Shaarawy. The defence is a long standing issue that was again unsolved over the summer and manager Max Allegri is under pressure to get results. They haven't won in four matches and have also failed to score in the last two. There are problems throughout the side and I think the manager will be gone before January.
Genoa appointed Gian Gasperini as manager and he has shocked everyone with how quickly he has improved the side in his return. He has a very individual system using wing-backs and fortunately for him Genoa haven't really coped since he left for Inter Milan and are capable of slotting back into this system. They are actually above AC Milan in the table and I think the handicaps are a little too generous for me to bet on Genoa.

Lay AC Milan -1.0 Asian Handicap on Betfair at 1.85. 2 points.

Sampdoria v Lazio, Sunday 1400

This match sees a couple of sides who don't score many meeting in Genoa. Sampdoria have been struggling to get going this season and currently lie in the relegation spots, third bottom. The problem seems to lie in the complete lack of goal threat they have which has seen them only score seven in twelve matches, and four in six at home so far. They have also lost four from six at home so far, but have only been beaten by more than one goal three times so far. I don't think they're miles away from getting draws from matches, and more if they can recruit a striker.
Lazio are in eighth currently thanks to their amazing home record of winning four, drawing one and losing one so far. Away from home they have drawn three and lost three. In those six away matches they have scored six and conceded twelve so far. The conceding shouldn't be too much of a factor here with Sampdoria's dreadful goals for record, but Lazio will not be scoring loads either the way they are set up. I think Goals Under is the way to go in this one.

Back Under 2.0 Goals Asian Totals at 2.19 with 32Red. 2 points.

VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Monchengladbach, Friday 1930

Stuttgart seem to consistently be finishing just away from the European spots in the Bundesliga and I would have them down for the same again this season. They are a rare case of being better away from home with a home record so far of won just one, drawn three and lost one too. They aren't being beaten, but are struggling for goals compared to their away performances. They're a relatively attacking side so the balance between defence and attack doesn't seem to be right to me yet. They have only won once in the last five games and come up against a Monchengladbach side performing very well.
Borussia Monchengladbach are a side reborn this season so far, particularly at home. They have won all six at home so far with goals for twenty and only four conceded. The partnership of Max Kruse and Raffael has been brilliant so far for them. Away from home they have only won one, drawn one and lost four, but they are unbeaten in six games and two of the losses were to Bayern Munich and Leverkusen. They are in great form and look a good bet for best of the rest to me if they can avoid injuries to key personnel.

Lay VfB Stuttgart at 2.4 on Betfair. 2 points.

Augsburg v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430

Augsburg now look like a side who may stay around in the Bundesliga after intially struggling following their promotion two years ago. This has been down to a style of play that focusses on defence and puts not losing ahead of winning matches. For Germany a record of scoring thirteen in twelve isn't great, but it has given Augsburg three wins from six at home to keep them afloat. They have conceded twenty three in all their matches though to show that they can be gotten at by attacking sides. They're scoring enough to be above relegation, but are only beating the sides around them.
Hoffenheim look a bit better to me this season than they have since their initial success after promotion. They went through a lot of changes in manager and playing staff following that first season and never truly settled down. This saw them almost relegated last season and a more stable environment sought out by senior level management. Markus Gidsol was brought in as manager and they are again looking to unearth players from abroad and lower divisions. So far they have been better away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two from five with fourteen scored and twelve conceded. I think Augsburg look short against a side who have positives where the home side have negatives.

Lay Augsburg at 2.17 on Betfair. 2 points.

Real Sociedad v Celta de Vigo, Saturday 1700

Real Sociedad have at times this season looked like the extra games in the Champions League have taken a toll on a smallish squad. They currently lie in seventh position having struggled away from home with just one win on the road so far. However comma at home they go won three, drawn two and lost just once so far with twelve scored and just three conceded. They were thrashed by Real Madrid last time out, but were unbeaten in three before that with eight scored for no reply in their last two home matches. The international break should actually have seen a number of their best players getting a rest, like Antoine Griezmann (suspended from French duty) and Carlos Vela (still not back in with Mexico) so they could well fire on every cyclinder.
Celta Vigo look like they may well be in trouble this season to me. It's tight in La Liga again, but not winning at home yet makes me very worried about them. Even if they have won three away so far. They have had real trouble scoring at home and seem happier when the shackles come off away from home. They are up against a very good side in Sociedad though and the price looks fair to me.

Back Real Sociedad at 1.76 with PinnacleSports. 2 points.

Levante v Villarreal, Sunday 1100

I keep following Levante, and I will continue to do so until they prove me wrong. My assessment is they are undervalued by odds compilers, with respect to how hard they are to beat. On paper it is far from a brilliant side, but they get results through sheer effort and force of will at times. The worry here is that they have only won once from six at home with three draws and two defeats. The caveat for me is that they have only conceded five in those six matches and just need to score a few more to turn this around. It may not happen immediately, but they look long for a tough to beat side against newcomers.
Whilst Villarreal are new to La Primera this season following promotion, they have started exceptionally well. They may actually suit the top division better as they retained class in Cani and Bruno Soriano who are again showing themselves to be excellent midfielders. They sit fourth in the table with seven wins from thirteen so far, and three away from home. They are scoring far more at home than away though, with just six for them away so far, and that makes me think they may struggle to win this one.

Lay Villarreal at 2.2 on Betfair. 2 points.

The start of something?

Last weekend saw a return to profitable ways for us on the blog and left me with a better feeling about my handle on things. As mentioned last week it has been a summer of change around Europe in terms of where teams are in their own divisions. This is not uncommon, obviously, but the start of the season can sometimes be difficult to immediately spot who has changed, and most importantly for betting, how they've changed. For instance, in the Premier League I see in the top six or so that Arsenal, Liverpool and Southampton have improved, Tottenham and Chelsea have changed (in terms of defence/attack balance) and also that Manchester United have regressed. I think I am now in a position where I have better assessed the leagues I cover regularly, although I'm not completely confident on Turkey yet, and results should improve naturally with this.

Music from The Holy Mess with My Boring 90's.

Week 6

Arsenal v Liverpool - Win 2.66 points.
Everton v Tottenham - VOID
Real Betis v Levnate - Win 1.92 points.
Almeria v Real Valladolid - Lose 2 points.
AC Milan v Fiorentina - Win 1.72 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Stuttgart - Win 0.76 points.
Hertha Berlin v Schalke 04 - Lose 2 points.
OGC Nice v Bordeaux - Lose 2 points.
Bursaspor v Fenerbahce - Win 0.96 points.

Weekly Total - Win 2.02
Running Total - Lose 15.86 points.

Southampton v Hull City, Saturday 1500

Southampton are one of the sides I have had to slightly adjust my pre-season thoughts on. I had them marked as again slightly struggling, but they appear to have set themselves up as a hard-working, high pressure defensive side who will make anyone earn a goal against them. This should easily keep them out of trouble and could yet see them push for a European place for next season, or a cup win, but the attack is yet to fire. Two of their biggest signings of this season and last were Gaston Ramirez and Pablo Osvaldo, but neither is scoring. With Osvaldo in particular, they might have been warned, as he has a record of stroppy behaviour. This seems to have been the case again here as he has not linked up with the rest of the attack at all. I still think Rickie Lambert is a better bet as he works harder and possesses no little skill and threat himself.
Hull City are another side presently confounding many peoples expectations. I am absolutely no huge fan of Steve Bruce, but this is more the case if you want to see your club pushing on up the Premier League. He was fine at keeping Wigan and Sunderland afloat, but struggled to take either side on, despite being gifted an awful lot of cash to do so at Sunderland. Hull have been built similarly to Southampton with defence in mind first of all, but they have almost no goal threat in the side. Tom Huddlestone and Curtis Davies have been stand out players so far, but although Huddlestone can be creative he does not score. Bruce signed Danny Graham hoping he would repeat his success in Swansea's promotion season, but he seems stuck in a hopeless goal drought at present. They should keep Southampton fairly restricted, but I don't see them getting a goal.

Back Under 2.25 Goals at 2.3 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.

Manchester United v Arsenal. Sunday 1600

Both of these sides have undergone some serious changes over the summer, but for completely different reasons. Manchester United finally said goodbye to Alex Ferguson and brought in David Moyes from Everton as his replacement. I would imagine a huge part of this decision was due to the way Moyes consistently pushed Everton up the table on a very limited budget. The owners, the Glazers, must realise they have been left miles behind in terms of spending power and also must have been aware that Ferguson was getting an ungodly level of performance out of an, on paper, fading side. Unfortunately for Moyes, he was only given Marouane Fellaini as an addition to the squad. He should have added energy to a pretty listless midfield, but he has yet to find a way of doing so. The only players in the squad I see improving are David De Gea and Rafael, with the obvious class of Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney, but the rest of the squad seems ageing, unmotivated or just not good enough. They have looked better of late, but nowhere near a side who could sustain a title challenge for me.
Arsenal are now five points clear at the summit of the Premier League and people are now beginning to wonder if they can sustain this for an entire season. I personally feel that if you can get 5.0 on them winning the Premier League it's an excellent long term bet. They might not be this consistent the whole season long, but I couldn't say that of any other side either. The defence had been mentioned by me last season as being very unfairly derided, but is now getting some of the credit it deserves. Arsene Wenger seems to have settled on a back four of Bacary Sagna, Per Mertesacker, Laurent Koscielny and Kieran Gibbs who are benefitting from playing together every week. The midfield and forwards look in fantastic form, even those on the bench like Tomas Rosicky when they are brought in to the side, and are scoring plenty. They haven't lost away this season so I think their price is currently huge.

Lay Manchester United at 2.32 on Betfair. 2 points.

Athletic Bilbao v Levante, Saturday 1900

Athletic Bilbao finally completed their move to a new stadium from their wonderful old ground and have benefitted from this so far. They are so far unbeaten at home with four wins and two draws from their opening six home matches. They have scored twelve and conceded just six in those matches, but they have won just one in the last six matches and look to have tailed off from their flying start to the season. They've not struggled to score, but they have still not tightened up at the back enough for me to have any confidence in them at such short odds.
Levante are a side I have been with for the last two seasons and I am still not sure that the compilers have correctly assessed them this season either. We profited from betting against Real Betis last week when against Levante and they followed this up by narrowly being beaten in stoppage time at home to Granada. That was only the third loss of the season and the first by a side who are not Barcelona or Real Madrid. They have also only conceded five goals aside from the matches with Barcelona and Real in their other ten matches. They may not win this, but are well worth being with in some format.

Lay Athletic Bilbao at 1.6 on Betfair. 2 points.

Espanyol v Sevilla, Sunday 1100

I don't always put two bets up from La Liga, but this week I think they're both too good to miss. Espanyol look like they may be one of the sides who push for European football next season given a quarter of the season has already gone and they look a solid side. They don't score many, but they press opposition sides very hard and make getting a result from them very difficult indeed. At home they have so far won three, drawn two and lost just once. They have beaten Atletico Madrid a few weeks ago and only lost 1-0 away at city rivals Barcelona last week. They look a good chance at the odds.
Sevilla are another side in Spain, like Valencia, who are now a few years past the position their odds suggest. Sevilla were a phenomenally good side under Juande Ramos with the likes of Dani Alves and Freddie Kanoute playing for them. They were capable of beating anyone and were part of a top four with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Valencia. Sadly, this is no longer the case. They no longer possess anyone a good club would particularly covet, especially with Geoffrey Kondogbia joining Monaco over the summer, and teams fancy gaining points against them. They have not won away yet this season and I see that run continuing.

Back Espanyol at 2.42 with SBOBet. 2 points.

Chievo v AC Milan, Sunday 1400

Chievo have only won one match so far this season, but they are not being soundly beaten. In previous years they have relied upon a very good home record to keep them away from trouble and I think they could yet get better. Their problem has been scoring goals, considering how poor their results have been the fact they have conceded eighteen in eleven is not awful. They have drawn 0-0 last weekend and were only beaten 1-0 by Roma and 1-2 by Fiorentina previous to that. If they could improve upon their dreadful goals for record of just five so far then they'd have more of a chance.
AC Milan are seemingly discussing things at boardroom level as how they can improve their start to the season. This was also the case last season and they backed Max Allegri to improve the side and added Mario Balotelli who fired them up the table. Unfortunately this season the forwards, including Balotelli, haven't fired at all, with Balotelli and Stephen El Sharaawy currently out of the side. They have also conceded goals at an alarming rate and were beaten at home last weekend by Fiorentina. This is a winnable match for them, but I can't see them getting many.

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.85 with MarathonBet. 2 points.

VFL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430

Wolfsburg have started the season with a particularly good home record of having won four matches and lost just once in five. Strangely that solitary loss was to bottom side Eintracht Braunschweig in a 0-2 reverse. They have won three on the bounce since that defeat with seven scored and two conceded. My problem with this record so far is that they have not beaten a good side yet and Borussia Dortmund are currently proving to be one of Europe's best sides in every match. They have conceded ten in their away matches, where they have played far more decent sides, and this is a worry. I think they're due a big defeat and this could be the match they get it.
Borussia Dortmund lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal last night in the Champions League. They matched one of Europe's other form sides in every area though and could consider themselves unlucky to lose the match. In the Bundesliga they are almost imperious having lost just once all season. This was away at a very good Borussia Monchengladbach side where they were by far the better side throughout and simply had an off day in front of goal. They were the same odds for that match and Gladbach are a better side than Wolfsburg, that's enough for me.

Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.8 with BetVictor. 2 points.

Borussia Monchengladbach v FC Nurnberg, Saturday 1730

I avoided Borussia Monchengladbach last season whilst they adjusted to the loss of their best defender and forward to Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund respectively. Dante has gone on to establish himself as a vital part of Munich's team, as has Marco Reus at Dortmund. They were conceding too many and not scoring enough, but this season they seem to be a lot better under manager Lucien Favre. The Swiss is famed for his ability to organise a defence and with the addition of striker Max Kruse they look a lot more potent in attack. They have won all five home matches so far with seventeen scored and just three conceded so far, with Kruse scoring four and strike partner Raffael getting six. Having watched them dismantle a good Frankfurt side two weeks ago, I foresee an easy win in this one.
Nurnberg are currently struggling no end and have yet to win a match this season. They have been slightly better away from home, having drawn five and lost one in six, but they have conceded ten in those games. They have scored eight, but are coming up against a very good defence and exceptional attack who make those statistics look very ominous indeed to me. I would have Monchengladbach as a 1.5 shot so the available 1.6 is fine by me.

Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 1.6 with BetBright. 2 points.