I hope you have enjoyed the blogs I've put up so far? I think my betting tips have been pretty spot on so far so congratulations to anyone that backed them! Watching the Portugal game last night it occurred to me that I had missed out looking at some of the back-up players who could come in and so I'll try and have a look at those for the upcoming matches as well as the usual.
Holland v Brazil, Kick-Off 3pm UK Time Friday
Defence
I have already covered both of these teams in previous blogs and both defences held up pretty well in the Last 16 matches so I'll just give a brief look at them again. Brazil have probably the best centre back in the world today in Lucio and the best right-back in Maicon. However, it will have been a while since they came up against an attack like Holland's and this should prove a real test of their credentials. As I have previously mentioned I have my reservations about Brazils left-back Michel Bastos. He is not a natural defender and his positioning at times is truly horrendous. I would imagine Van Maarwijk will start Robben on the right and brief him to cut in onto Bastos' weaker right foot as often as possible to cause Brazil's defence serious problems. I would imagine Dunga knows this is a weak spot though, and I would also expect him to tell Felipe Melo and Gilberto Silva that they should always be available to help out when required. Holland's back line didn't look exactly completely comfortable against the relative minnows of Slovakia. Van Der Wiel again impressed me at right-back, but the 2 centre halves seemed to struggle at times. If Robert Vittek caused Mathijsen and Heitinga problems Luis Fabiano must be licking his chops at the prospect of facing them. Neither looked happy up against pace, and whilst O Fabuloso is no Usain Bolt he is far from slow. As impressive as Van Der Wiel has been previously too he hasn't faced anyone of the calibre of Robinho, who has been my player of the tournament so far. I would expect the full-back areas to be key in this match with both teams having flying forwards, and I think the defence that holds out best will probably come out on top.
Midfield
Both teams line up with 2 spcific defensive midfielders and both managers have been criticised at home for doing as such. Looking at their form though I would be inclined to back the managers decision over fans! Brazil line up with Gilberto Silva of Panathinaikos and Felipe Melo of Juventus. Whilst these 2 may not impress with their skill or win matches on their own their jobs should not be undervalued. They are the platform that allows their teams more celebrated attackers to do their stuff and have been quietly efficient at that job so far. Melo missed Brazil's match against Chile and although they hardly struggled I think his replacement Ramires showed that he's not quite at that level. Melo seems to have a sixth sense for reading the pass the opposition are about to play and cutting it off before it becomes dangerous. He has taken a lot of stick in Italy, but seeing him in this World Cup I would consider Dunga's decision to pick him as fully vindicated.
Holland also line up with 2 screening players, this time Mark Van Bommel of Bayern Munich and Nigel De Jong of Manchester City. Mark Van Bommel is the absolute master of 'tactical fouling' and is the player that the oft-lauded Javier Mascherano must dream of being! His re-instatement to the team under Van Maarwijk has coincided with a swift improvement in performances and results. I have previously mentioned my personal opinion of Nigel De Jong as being the perfect modern defensive midfielder. His physique, strength and discipline are a case-study in the art of dfending from midfield and should be shown to any aspiring player as a guide to how to do the job. All 4 of these players will start this match barring some major illness or injury so I wont go into their possible replacements.
Attack
This is where both teams have built their reputations as the great flair tems of world football. Both still play beautiful football at teams, but also have a tactical discipline that has seen them criticised by fans more used to seeing a gung-ho approach to the game. Saying that, both teams have a flying left-footer who cares little for defensive responsibilities, Arjen Robben for Holland and Robinho for Brazil. Anyone who watched the Champions League last year will attest to the stunning performances of Robben and will have seen him, at times single-handedly, drag Munich through some games. Robinho has been out of the European game on-loan to Santos in Brazil from Manchester City. Both are capable of being the player that decides this match and I personally think with Kaka looking generally hopelessly out-of-form Robinho has become the leader of this Brazil team. Both are more than ably assisted by some of Europes top names. For Holland we have Wesley Sneijder of Inter Milan and Robin Van Persie of Arsenal. Sneijder was probably the best player in Europe last year and pulls the strings for Holland. He supplies the bullets for Robben and Van Persie and is more than capable of unleashing freekicks and long-distance shots himself. Van Persie is an amazing player when fit! And he is at the moment so I expect him to shine. For Brazil it is normally Elano of Galatasaray and Kaka of Real Madrid. As mentioned I think Kaka has looked off-the-pace so far, but as he showed with a killer pass to set up a goal in the Chile game he still has the ability. Elano is injured so I would expect Dunga to pick either Dani Alves or Nilmar to replace him. Dani Alves is a one man right side machine who offers defensive nous whereas Nilmar offers a goalscoring threat as England will remember from the recent friendly between the teams! I would expect the conservative Dunga to pick Alves and possibly bring Nilmar from the bench if needed later on.
I think this will be where the match is decided as both teams have players capable of match-defining performances. I think Robinho will be the difference if he performs as he has been with Luis Fabiano looking in great form of late to finish moves off. Holland tend to play Dirk Kujt and whilst he's a lot of things, prolific isn't one of them!
Betting
Although I have talked about how good Holland's forwards are capable of being, however they haven't clicked yet like Brazil have. I fancy Brazil to win 1-0 or 2-0 in this at 6's for 1-0 at Boylesports and 8's for 2-0 at Skybet. I also like Fabiano to score first at a top-priced 19/4 with Victor Chandler. Brazil to keep a clean sheet at 6/4 with bet365 and Brazil to do the job in 90 minutes at 10/11 widely available.
Wednesday, 30 June 2010
Tuesday, 29 June 2010
The last of the Last 16...
And so we finally reach the last of the 2nd Round World Cup matches. And it's a match up between the home of one of my favourite beers against the home of one of my favourite cuisines (a bit of a personal insight for everyone there!). It's Portugal, Sagres Lager Beer, up against Spain, tapas (the perfect accompaniment to drinking said lager beer!). Anyway, enough of that, let's assess the 2 teams.
Spain v Portugal, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time
Defence
I will start by assessing Spain, although after their success in the Euro's 2 years ago and Barcelona's domination of Europe, I'm sure you're all well aware of who they are. At right-back we have the Real Madrid love-machine Sergio Ramos, a man who claims he plays better the more women he sleeps with! Whilst he was often criticised for his lack of defensive positioning when younger he has matured into a fine full-back who is useful in defence and attack. At left-back it's stalwart Joan Capdevilla, a steady-Eddy if ever there was one. He is like a metronome running up and down and rarely caught out of position at either end. In the centre we have the Barcelona pairing of Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol. Puyol, he of the magnificent poodle style hair, is Mr Barcelona/Catalunya. Vastly experienced at the top level and the leader of the team in a John Terry style, albeit with vastly more ability. Gerard Pique is the ball-playing part of the pair and can often be found majestically striding forward setting up attacks. In goal is Iker Casillas, although I personally think the time has come for him to be dropped. He has been dropping clanger after clanger for the past season whilst Valdes of Barcelona and Reina of Liverpool have more than earnt their chance.
For Portugal, whilst not necessarily as easily recognisable by their names, are a very good defensive unit. One that only conceded 6 goals in their last 16 games leading to the World Cup ans only 1 so far in the World Cup. Carlos Queiros clearly recognised the fact Portugal seem incapable of producing a single decent central striker and reasoned that not conceding was the best way to start with Portugal. A very good decision and one that has been backed up by results. It's Valencia's Miguel at right-back, an immensely fit full-back who is capable of popping up in attacking positions then being back to cover defensively in the blink of an eye. At left-back it's Coentrao, a player I hadn't heard much about before the tournament, but one who has impresses me so far. He has got assists as well as being a disciplined performer at the back when required. In the centre is one of the best pairings at the World Cup in my opinion with Bruno Alves partnering Chelsea's Ricky Carvalho. Alves has been emerging as one of Europe's best centre halves at Porto over the past couple of seasons and Carvalho, whilst not the force of old, is a brilliant reader of the game.
Midfield
This is where Spain are outstanding and play in the tiki-taka style so easily recognisable to anyone who has seen Barcelona play under Pep Guardiola. It's all short passes and movement into space and then pressing whenever they lose the ball, which isn't often! Sergio Busquets provides the defensive presence in the middle 3. Whilst nowhere near as technically gifted as his midfield compatriots he is a vital cog nonetheless. He is a master of 'tactical fouling' in the Mark Van Bommel mode and often breaks up the oppositions play before reaching dangerous areas. In the middle it is Xabi Alonso and Xavi Hernandez of Barcelona. Alonaso performs a deeper role taking the ball from the defence and giving it long or short as he did at Liverpool for the forwards and Xavi to weave their patterns. Xavi himself is the epitome of Barcelona's style. He is rumoured in Catalunya to have neer given the ball away and it's easy to see how such a rumour started. He treats the ball like a precious jewel and wont let the opposition anywhere near it.
Portugal are a mix of journeymen and class-acts. Pepe, the Real Madrid centre-back, plays a defensive midfield role for Portugal. As you'd imagine he rarely pops up in attack and is pretty happy to sit in front of the centre backs. Raul Meireles, the one with the tattoos, ans Tiago are the other men in a midfield 3. Both are given some licence to attack given that they know Pepe will always provide cover and both have been known to pop up with the odd goal.
I can only see Spain coming out on top in this battle. Pepe, as a converted centre back, is a fairly lumbering presence and I can see him being given the run-around by the little triangles Spain will play with their passing. Whilst Portugal haven't conceded many I think that is down to the quality of opposition and Spain will surely have chances here.
Attack
Again in attack the Spanish names will be very familiar to all. It is Iniesta of Barcelona and David Villa,who joins him there at Barcelona next season, behind Spain's own Kevin Davies, Fernando Torres! This isn't a dig at Torres, clearly he is a brilliant player, but more a recognition of the role he performs in this Spain team. Iniesta and Villa link up with Alonso and Xavi in midfield passing and moving until space opens up before trying one-two's or shooting. Torres is the outlet for a longer ball from Alonso or Pique to hold it up or lay it off. He hasn't scored in over a year internationally, but that has hardly harmed Spain, with one loss since Euro 2008. Villa, for me, is the best striker in World football for pure goalscoring ability. He can score with his head, his left, his right, from distance and tap-ins. He is, simply put, sensational (in a purely heterosexual way). Iniesta is the man Wayne Rooney described as 'he best in the world'. While I wouldn't normally trust Mr Potato Head's opinions I think he is bang on with that. He is all work-rate, unselfish and scores too. In short Spain are the world's best attacking unit!
Portugal have everyones favourite preening, sulking, diving and yet brilliant forward, Cristiano Ronaldo. He is the man Portugal look to to create chances and score goals. Personally I think he often tries to do too much and would benefit from being a bit less greedy, but he's done alright so far like that so who am I to judge? He can strike from distance and is a presence in the penalty area due to his physique. Whilst no-one rates him quite as much as he rates himself, on his day he is capable of destroying teams on his own when everything comes off (including those generally terrible freekicks of his). On the oppsite side to him is Danny of Zenit St Petersburg. Whilst not a name some people may have heard of Zenit saw fit to pay £20m for him 2 years ago and he destroyed Man Utd in the UEFA Super Cup. He hasn't really done it in the World Cup so far, but it's all in this lads locker when he's on form. Duda often makes up the front 3 and he is from the tradition of truly God-awful Portugese central forwards. He is there to give it to Ronaldo and Danny basically and performs this role adequately.
Again I see Spain winning this match up. As mentioned, Portugal's recent defensive stats are fantastic, but they haven't played a team of this power going forward in that time. Spain, and Villa in particular, should give Portugal's defence recurring nightmares with their movement. I see it being a tight game, but Spain's class shouldshine through.
Betting
As I've mentioned I can see this being a tight game and I would bet accordingly. I would look at under 2.5 goals at around 8/15 widely available. I would also look at Spain to win in extra-time or on penalties, these are available at 10's at bet365. I would also look at backing David Villa for anytime scorer as I think he's nailed on here, you can get 4's at Stan James for that.
Spain v Portugal, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time
Defence
I will start by assessing Spain, although after their success in the Euro's 2 years ago and Barcelona's domination of Europe, I'm sure you're all well aware of who they are. At right-back we have the Real Madrid love-machine Sergio Ramos, a man who claims he plays better the more women he sleeps with! Whilst he was often criticised for his lack of defensive positioning when younger he has matured into a fine full-back who is useful in defence and attack. At left-back it's stalwart Joan Capdevilla, a steady-Eddy if ever there was one. He is like a metronome running up and down and rarely caught out of position at either end. In the centre we have the Barcelona pairing of Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol. Puyol, he of the magnificent poodle style hair, is Mr Barcelona/Catalunya. Vastly experienced at the top level and the leader of the team in a John Terry style, albeit with vastly more ability. Gerard Pique is the ball-playing part of the pair and can often be found majestically striding forward setting up attacks. In goal is Iker Casillas, although I personally think the time has come for him to be dropped. He has been dropping clanger after clanger for the past season whilst Valdes of Barcelona and Reina of Liverpool have more than earnt their chance.
For Portugal, whilst not necessarily as easily recognisable by their names, are a very good defensive unit. One that only conceded 6 goals in their last 16 games leading to the World Cup ans only 1 so far in the World Cup. Carlos Queiros clearly recognised the fact Portugal seem incapable of producing a single decent central striker and reasoned that not conceding was the best way to start with Portugal. A very good decision and one that has been backed up by results. It's Valencia's Miguel at right-back, an immensely fit full-back who is capable of popping up in attacking positions then being back to cover defensively in the blink of an eye. At left-back it's Coentrao, a player I hadn't heard much about before the tournament, but one who has impresses me so far. He has got assists as well as being a disciplined performer at the back when required. In the centre is one of the best pairings at the World Cup in my opinion with Bruno Alves partnering Chelsea's Ricky Carvalho. Alves has been emerging as one of Europe's best centre halves at Porto over the past couple of seasons and Carvalho, whilst not the force of old, is a brilliant reader of the game.
Midfield
This is where Spain are outstanding and play in the tiki-taka style so easily recognisable to anyone who has seen Barcelona play under Pep Guardiola. It's all short passes and movement into space and then pressing whenever they lose the ball, which isn't often! Sergio Busquets provides the defensive presence in the middle 3. Whilst nowhere near as technically gifted as his midfield compatriots he is a vital cog nonetheless. He is a master of 'tactical fouling' in the Mark Van Bommel mode and often breaks up the oppositions play before reaching dangerous areas. In the middle it is Xabi Alonso and Xavi Hernandez of Barcelona. Alonaso performs a deeper role taking the ball from the defence and giving it long or short as he did at Liverpool for the forwards and Xavi to weave their patterns. Xavi himself is the epitome of Barcelona's style. He is rumoured in Catalunya to have neer given the ball away and it's easy to see how such a rumour started. He treats the ball like a precious jewel and wont let the opposition anywhere near it.
Portugal are a mix of journeymen and class-acts. Pepe, the Real Madrid centre-back, plays a defensive midfield role for Portugal. As you'd imagine he rarely pops up in attack and is pretty happy to sit in front of the centre backs. Raul Meireles, the one with the tattoos, ans Tiago are the other men in a midfield 3. Both are given some licence to attack given that they know Pepe will always provide cover and both have been known to pop up with the odd goal.
I can only see Spain coming out on top in this battle. Pepe, as a converted centre back, is a fairly lumbering presence and I can see him being given the run-around by the little triangles Spain will play with their passing. Whilst Portugal haven't conceded many I think that is down to the quality of opposition and Spain will surely have chances here.
Attack
Again in attack the Spanish names will be very familiar to all. It is Iniesta of Barcelona and David Villa,who joins him there at Barcelona next season, behind Spain's own Kevin Davies, Fernando Torres! This isn't a dig at Torres, clearly he is a brilliant player, but more a recognition of the role he performs in this Spain team. Iniesta and Villa link up with Alonso and Xavi in midfield passing and moving until space opens up before trying one-two's or shooting. Torres is the outlet for a longer ball from Alonso or Pique to hold it up or lay it off. He hasn't scored in over a year internationally, but that has hardly harmed Spain, with one loss since Euro 2008. Villa, for me, is the best striker in World football for pure goalscoring ability. He can score with his head, his left, his right, from distance and tap-ins. He is, simply put, sensational (in a purely heterosexual way). Iniesta is the man Wayne Rooney described as 'he best in the world'. While I wouldn't normally trust Mr Potato Head's opinions I think he is bang on with that. He is all work-rate, unselfish and scores too. In short Spain are the world's best attacking unit!
Portugal have everyones favourite preening, sulking, diving and yet brilliant forward, Cristiano Ronaldo. He is the man Portugal look to to create chances and score goals. Personally I think he often tries to do too much and would benefit from being a bit less greedy, but he's done alright so far like that so who am I to judge? He can strike from distance and is a presence in the penalty area due to his physique. Whilst no-one rates him quite as much as he rates himself, on his day he is capable of destroying teams on his own when everything comes off (including those generally terrible freekicks of his). On the oppsite side to him is Danny of Zenit St Petersburg. Whilst not a name some people may have heard of Zenit saw fit to pay £20m for him 2 years ago and he destroyed Man Utd in the UEFA Super Cup. He hasn't really done it in the World Cup so far, but it's all in this lads locker when he's on form. Duda often makes up the front 3 and he is from the tradition of truly God-awful Portugese central forwards. He is there to give it to Ronaldo and Danny basically and performs this role adequately.
Again I see Spain winning this match up. As mentioned, Portugal's recent defensive stats are fantastic, but they haven't played a team of this power going forward in that time. Spain, and Villa in particular, should give Portugal's defence recurring nightmares with their movement. I see it being a tight game, but Spain's class shouldshine through.
Betting
As I've mentioned I can see this being a tight game and I would bet accordingly. I would look at under 2.5 goals at around 8/15 widely available. I would also look at Spain to win in extra-time or on penalties, these are available at 10's at bet365. I would also look at backing David Villa for anytime scorer as I think he's nailed on here, you can get 4's at Stan James for that.
More Last 16 fun...
And so we move on to the last day of the 2nd Round matches at this World Cup. And a couple of interesting matches we have too! We have 2 of the suprise packages so far up against each other.
Paraguay v Japan, Kick-Off 3pm UK Time
Defence
Paraguay's first choice back 4 have a wealth of experience at this level and contain a couple of names that may be familiar to Premier League followers. Sunderland's Paulo Da Silva is a certain starter and Wigan's young defender Antonin Alcaraz may well appear from the bench if required. Justo Villar in goal also has 76 caps and the whole defence is very used to playing together. And as anyone that watched England's shmabolic performance at the back against Germany will surely recognise, that can be very important! They conceded 16 goals in 18 qualifying games, which was second best only to Brazil in their qualifying group. They have only conceded 1 goal in 3 group games too. Although in a group containing the lesser lights of Slovakia and New Zealand and a woefully impotent Italy that isn't saying much.
Now, lazy stereotyping would have you believe that Japan are all midgets who would be outmuscled by Graham Norton. But this simply isn't true and I have been very impressed in particular with their 2 centre backs in this World Cup. Marcos 'Tulio' Tanaka and Yuji Nakazawa have been strong in the air and have stood up to everything thrown at them. Komano and Nagamoto have both looked solid at either full-back position too. They only conceded 2 goals in 3 group games against the more fancied teams of Cameroon, Denmark and Holland and that shouldn't be under-estimated.
Midfield
In midfield Paraguay play with 3 central midfielders, so far Victor Caceres, Enrique Vera and Christian Riveros have played every match. These 3 provide a platform for Paraguay's 3 very attacking forward to stay upfield and pose problems for opposition defences. Riveros in particular has impressed me so far with his intelligent passing and it looks like Steve Bruce's South American contacts have brought him another gem to the Premier League. Enrique Vera has played in many South American leagues and is now 31 so he brings the experience to the midfield.
Japan have a couple of names in midfield that readers might recognise in Junichi Inamoto and Shunsuke Nakamura. Inamoto came over to Arsenal and never really got a game before moving to Fulham and West Brom and only fitfully impressing. Whilst he doesn't regularly start he has a lot of experience in the national team with over 80 caps however and is very used to his team-mates. Ex-Celtic dead ball specialist Shunsuke Nakamura also plays and whilst his spell for Espanyol in Spain after leaving Celtic was unsuccessful he has regained some form on-loan in the J-League. The captain Makoto Hasebe has been playing regularly in Germany for Wolfsburg and has impressed so far, being linked with movess to Italy and the Premier League. Endo and Matsui make up the numbers in midfield and whilst neither will set the world alight, they are very capable players who know the system well. The real star is Keisuke Honda, now of CSKA Moscow in Russia. He has a brilliant free-kick in his array of skills and often pops up with goals. The manager Okada has moved him further up the pitch in a more familiar role to that he plays at his club and has seen his international form really improve. I think the game will be decided in midfield and I fancy Japan to do it having hit top form in their last outing against Denmark. I think if Honda plays well he has the ability to turn this game in Japan's favour.
Attack
Paraguay can call on players from some of Europe's major leagues in their attack. Roque Santa Cruz of Man City starts in a central role with Nelson Valdez of Borussia Dortmund and often Edgar Benitez or Oscar Cardozo also on the right hand side of the 3. Personally I think Santa Cruz is a hugely over-rated player who has had 1 good season in his whole career, at Blackburn, and I would rather see Lucas Barrios of Dortmund or Cardozo of Benfica playing there. However, Santa Cruz is a mainstay of this side and a national hero so that probably weighs on the managers mind somewhat. They only scored 3 goals in the group stage and I think this relative lack of firepower may cost them today.
Japan only play with one man up front and that man has changed a lot recently! Morimoto of Catania in Italy is the young striker that future hopes hang on and he has looked very good in a struggling Catania team. I would imagine the starter will be either the experienced Okubo or the younger Okazaki. I think in a game of this magnitude the manager Okada will turn to the experienced Okubo and look to the midfield to weigh in with their fair share of shots too. Okazaki boasts 17 goals in 31 internationals though and many in Japan are calling for his inclusion. Personally I think the latter man's credentials make him a must, but with the current fashion for hard-working, but non-scoring forwards very much en vogue Okubo will probably get the nod to start.
Betting
Even though both teams have looked relatively solid at the back I fancy there to be goals in this one! I would back over 2.5 goals at a widely available 6/4. I also think their might be a sending off and that can be backed at 11/4 with Bet365. Bet365 also price up a Man Of The Match market and I would look at the favourite Keisuke Honda at 4/1 for that as I think he's the man that can decide this game with a moment of skill or a great freekick. Both teams to score holds appeal at 6/5 with Betfred for me too.
I'll be back later with my preview for the later kick-off between Spain and Portugal.
Paraguay v Japan, Kick-Off 3pm UK Time
Defence
Paraguay's first choice back 4 have a wealth of experience at this level and contain a couple of names that may be familiar to Premier League followers. Sunderland's Paulo Da Silva is a certain starter and Wigan's young defender Antonin Alcaraz may well appear from the bench if required. Justo Villar in goal also has 76 caps and the whole defence is very used to playing together. And as anyone that watched England's shmabolic performance at the back against Germany will surely recognise, that can be very important! They conceded 16 goals in 18 qualifying games, which was second best only to Brazil in their qualifying group. They have only conceded 1 goal in 3 group games too. Although in a group containing the lesser lights of Slovakia and New Zealand and a woefully impotent Italy that isn't saying much.
Now, lazy stereotyping would have you believe that Japan are all midgets who would be outmuscled by Graham Norton. But this simply isn't true and I have been very impressed in particular with their 2 centre backs in this World Cup. Marcos 'Tulio' Tanaka and Yuji Nakazawa have been strong in the air and have stood up to everything thrown at them. Komano and Nagamoto have both looked solid at either full-back position too. They only conceded 2 goals in 3 group games against the more fancied teams of Cameroon, Denmark and Holland and that shouldn't be under-estimated.
Midfield
In midfield Paraguay play with 3 central midfielders, so far Victor Caceres, Enrique Vera and Christian Riveros have played every match. These 3 provide a platform for Paraguay's 3 very attacking forward to stay upfield and pose problems for opposition defences. Riveros in particular has impressed me so far with his intelligent passing and it looks like Steve Bruce's South American contacts have brought him another gem to the Premier League. Enrique Vera has played in many South American leagues and is now 31 so he brings the experience to the midfield.
Japan have a couple of names in midfield that readers might recognise in Junichi Inamoto and Shunsuke Nakamura. Inamoto came over to Arsenal and never really got a game before moving to Fulham and West Brom and only fitfully impressing. Whilst he doesn't regularly start he has a lot of experience in the national team with over 80 caps however and is very used to his team-mates. Ex-Celtic dead ball specialist Shunsuke Nakamura also plays and whilst his spell for Espanyol in Spain after leaving Celtic was unsuccessful he has regained some form on-loan in the J-League. The captain Makoto Hasebe has been playing regularly in Germany for Wolfsburg and has impressed so far, being linked with movess to Italy and the Premier League. Endo and Matsui make up the numbers in midfield and whilst neither will set the world alight, they are very capable players who know the system well. The real star is Keisuke Honda, now of CSKA Moscow in Russia. He has a brilliant free-kick in his array of skills and often pops up with goals. The manager Okada has moved him further up the pitch in a more familiar role to that he plays at his club and has seen his international form really improve. I think the game will be decided in midfield and I fancy Japan to do it having hit top form in their last outing against Denmark. I think if Honda plays well he has the ability to turn this game in Japan's favour.
Attack
Paraguay can call on players from some of Europe's major leagues in their attack. Roque Santa Cruz of Man City starts in a central role with Nelson Valdez of Borussia Dortmund and often Edgar Benitez or Oscar Cardozo also on the right hand side of the 3. Personally I think Santa Cruz is a hugely over-rated player who has had 1 good season in his whole career, at Blackburn, and I would rather see Lucas Barrios of Dortmund or Cardozo of Benfica playing there. However, Santa Cruz is a mainstay of this side and a national hero so that probably weighs on the managers mind somewhat. They only scored 3 goals in the group stage and I think this relative lack of firepower may cost them today.
Japan only play with one man up front and that man has changed a lot recently! Morimoto of Catania in Italy is the young striker that future hopes hang on and he has looked very good in a struggling Catania team. I would imagine the starter will be either the experienced Okubo or the younger Okazaki. I think in a game of this magnitude the manager Okada will turn to the experienced Okubo and look to the midfield to weigh in with their fair share of shots too. Okazaki boasts 17 goals in 31 internationals though and many in Japan are calling for his inclusion. Personally I think the latter man's credentials make him a must, but with the current fashion for hard-working, but non-scoring forwards very much en vogue Okubo will probably get the nod to start.
Betting
Even though both teams have looked relatively solid at the back I fancy there to be goals in this one! I would back over 2.5 goals at a widely available 6/4. I also think their might be a sending off and that can be backed at 11/4 with Bet365. Bet365 also price up a Man Of The Match market and I would look at the favourite Keisuke Honda at 4/1 for that as I think he's the man that can decide this game with a moment of skill or a great freekick. Both teams to score holds appeal at 6/5 with Betfred for me too.
I'll be back later with my preview for the later kick-off between Spain and Portugal.
Monday, 28 June 2010
Marching on continued...
As promised here is another preview of a World Cup 2010 match. This time I am casting my eyes over the all South American clash between Chile and Brazil.
Brazil v Chile, Kick-Off 730pm UK time.
Defence
Quite on the contrary to the tradition of Brazil's teams of the past this Brazil team are exceptionally strong at the back. Julio Cesar of Inter Milan in goal is now viewed by many pundits as the finest Goalkeeper in the world at present and with Casillas and Buffon in seeming decline I would agree. In front of him is the centre back pairing of Lucio and Juan. Lucio was outstanding in Inter Milan's Champions League victory campaign last year, Chelsea fans will surely remember the way he completely nullified Europe's best striker Didier Drogba in their match. Juan has also been impressive when not injured at Roma and their partnership has been going for the best part of 5 or 6 years now, meaning they have a wonderful understanding of their responsibilities. At right-back Brazil have to choose between the 2 finest players in the world in that position, with Dunga preferring Maicon over Dani Alves. Maicon was a relatively slow developer in modern terms, only really emerging in the last 2 or 3 years as a fine full-back, and I personally think his extra defensive ability means that Dunga is right to give him the nod over Alves. At left-back is where I see Brazil's potential weak spot. Michel Bastos plays as a winger for Lyon in France and is very suspect defensively for me. Chile's best player Alexis Sanchez plays right-wing and I would expect that to be an area Chile look to exploit.
Marcelo Bielsa always has his teams playing in a 3-3-1-3 formation. This allows his full backs to really attack as he thinks he only needs 3 defenders to mark the oppositions attackers. He also looks to defend in the opponents half, with a lot of pressing a feature of the Chile teams play. 2 of Chile's most important defensive players are missing for this match though and this hands Brazil a huge advantage. Waldo Ponce is the man tasked with beinf aerially dominant for Chile and Gary Medel is the Javier Mascherano style shield for them. With both of these out I would expect to see Brazil run riot, as they did in 3-0 and 4-2 victories in qualifying.
Midfield
Brazil, similarly to Holland, play with 2 defensive midfielders to allow the forwards to buzz around without being side-tracked by defending! This is something the coach Dunga has been widely criticised for in Brazil, being seen to be overly negative. However, the results say that he has been justified as they are beating everyone put in front of them (with the exception of Portugal when fielding an understrength team). Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo are the 2 players given this task and are perfectly suited. Melo is the master of anticipating through-balls and sprinting to intercept them before they reach their target. Silva simply sits in front of the defence being a nuisance to the oppositions attackers! Elano is the link man for them and is a Dunga favourite. When the mood takes him he is a magnificent player and Dunga seems to get the best out of him.
Chile have 1 defensive midfielder and then 2 attacking full-backs, 2 wingers, an attacking midfielder and 2 attackers. Making for generally very exciting games played on the front foot! As already mentioned Alexis Sanchez of Udinese is the young star on the right-wing and will surely see a lot of the ball. With my concerns over Bastos defensively it will be here that I think Chile will get most joy. George Valdivia has also impressed at this tournament and will need to impress again if Chile are to stand a chance here. Carmona, Vidal and Mark Gonzalez(ex-Liverpool) make up the team here and are all in decent form.
Attack
Here is where Brzil really coma alive the way everyone expects! Luis Fabiano is the central striker with a 1 in 2 goalscoring record at this level. Robinho and Kaka are the players behind him looking to tease the defenders and create opportunities. I have been very disappointed with Kaka so far having always been a big fan. He looks unfit and slightly overweight to me. Robinho has been my star man so far. He looks dangerous everytime he is on the ball and has all the ability in the world. Like Elano Dunga seems to be able to coax something approaching his maximum from him in a way successive Man City bosses could not. If Bielsa sticks with his 3 at the back (and I expect him to) expect plenty of chances coming Fabiano's way and I can see him getting 2 at least.
Chile play with Humberto Suazo up front usually, but he came into the tourament injured and looks miles off the pace unfortunately. Orellana, Paredes and Beausejour have all played a part so far and I expect 1 of those to partner Suazo as he is still their best hope for a goal.
Betting
Brazil are around 1/2 to win it in 90 minutes and I think that's easy money. I would also back them to cover a one goal handicap at around 9/10. For a bit more value maybe a Draw/Brazil in the Half-Time/Full-Time market. You can get around 9/2 and Brazil have been taking a while to hit their stride in games of late. With both teams capable of attacking very well and Fabiano back on form I would look at over 3.5 goals too at around 11/4 widely available.
Brazil v Chile, Kick-Off 730pm UK time.
Defence
Quite on the contrary to the tradition of Brazil's teams of the past this Brazil team are exceptionally strong at the back. Julio Cesar of Inter Milan in goal is now viewed by many pundits as the finest Goalkeeper in the world at present and with Casillas and Buffon in seeming decline I would agree. In front of him is the centre back pairing of Lucio and Juan. Lucio was outstanding in Inter Milan's Champions League victory campaign last year, Chelsea fans will surely remember the way he completely nullified Europe's best striker Didier Drogba in their match. Juan has also been impressive when not injured at Roma and their partnership has been going for the best part of 5 or 6 years now, meaning they have a wonderful understanding of their responsibilities. At right-back Brazil have to choose between the 2 finest players in the world in that position, with Dunga preferring Maicon over Dani Alves. Maicon was a relatively slow developer in modern terms, only really emerging in the last 2 or 3 years as a fine full-back, and I personally think his extra defensive ability means that Dunga is right to give him the nod over Alves. At left-back is where I see Brazil's potential weak spot. Michel Bastos plays as a winger for Lyon in France and is very suspect defensively for me. Chile's best player Alexis Sanchez plays right-wing and I would expect that to be an area Chile look to exploit.
Marcelo Bielsa always has his teams playing in a 3-3-1-3 formation. This allows his full backs to really attack as he thinks he only needs 3 defenders to mark the oppositions attackers. He also looks to defend in the opponents half, with a lot of pressing a feature of the Chile teams play. 2 of Chile's most important defensive players are missing for this match though and this hands Brazil a huge advantage. Waldo Ponce is the man tasked with beinf aerially dominant for Chile and Gary Medel is the Javier Mascherano style shield for them. With both of these out I would expect to see Brazil run riot, as they did in 3-0 and 4-2 victories in qualifying.
Midfield
Brazil, similarly to Holland, play with 2 defensive midfielders to allow the forwards to buzz around without being side-tracked by defending! This is something the coach Dunga has been widely criticised for in Brazil, being seen to be overly negative. However, the results say that he has been justified as they are beating everyone put in front of them (with the exception of Portugal when fielding an understrength team). Gilberto Silva and Felipe Melo are the 2 players given this task and are perfectly suited. Melo is the master of anticipating through-balls and sprinting to intercept them before they reach their target. Silva simply sits in front of the defence being a nuisance to the oppositions attackers! Elano is the link man for them and is a Dunga favourite. When the mood takes him he is a magnificent player and Dunga seems to get the best out of him.
Chile have 1 defensive midfielder and then 2 attacking full-backs, 2 wingers, an attacking midfielder and 2 attackers. Making for generally very exciting games played on the front foot! As already mentioned Alexis Sanchez of Udinese is the young star on the right-wing and will surely see a lot of the ball. With my concerns over Bastos defensively it will be here that I think Chile will get most joy. George Valdivia has also impressed at this tournament and will need to impress again if Chile are to stand a chance here. Carmona, Vidal and Mark Gonzalez(ex-Liverpool) make up the team here and are all in decent form.
Attack
Here is where Brzil really coma alive the way everyone expects! Luis Fabiano is the central striker with a 1 in 2 goalscoring record at this level. Robinho and Kaka are the players behind him looking to tease the defenders and create opportunities. I have been very disappointed with Kaka so far having always been a big fan. He looks unfit and slightly overweight to me. Robinho has been my star man so far. He looks dangerous everytime he is on the ball and has all the ability in the world. Like Elano Dunga seems to be able to coax something approaching his maximum from him in a way successive Man City bosses could not. If Bielsa sticks with his 3 at the back (and I expect him to) expect plenty of chances coming Fabiano's way and I can see him getting 2 at least.
Chile play with Humberto Suazo up front usually, but he came into the tourament injured and looks miles off the pace unfortunately. Orellana, Paredes and Beausejour have all played a part so far and I expect 1 of those to partner Suazo as he is still their best hope for a goal.
Betting
Brazil are around 1/2 to win it in 90 minutes and I think that's easy money. I would also back them to cover a one goal handicap at around 9/10. For a bit more value maybe a Draw/Brazil in the Half-Time/Full-Time market. You can get around 9/2 and Brazil have been taking a while to hit their stride in games of late. With both teams capable of attacking very well and Fabiano back on form I would look at over 3.5 goals too at around 11/4 widely available.
Marching on in the Last 16...
So, here we are, still reeling from the lesson ze Germans taught England yesterday afternoon. As I thought England's centre backs looked very uncomfortable trying to deal with balls over the top, although even I wouldn't have predicted such a bad performance!
So, let's have a look at today's 2 matches and I am going to assess the teams in a different structure this time. I will look at the defence, then midfield, then attackers for both teams in turn. Then I will have a look at the betting at the end of each games assessment.
Holland v Slovakia, Kick-Off 3pm UK time.
Defence
Holland have so far only conceded 1 goal in 3 matches in the World Cup and only conceded 2 in the qualifying campaign. Whilst a lot of people, myself included, are not familiar with the names of some of the players in Holland's defence they are obviously a very successful unit. They know that first and foremost they are there to defend and whilst the full-backs are capable of attacking they are both disciplined. I had seen the young right-back Gregory Van Der Wiel's name mentioned with regards to a big move soon and I can understand why. He is defensively sound, very athletic and can get forward when necessary, he reminds me of Maicon of Brazil, and I can't offer higher praise than that! Van Bronckhorst at left-back has obviously been around for a while, and whilst he is definitely no spring-chicken, he has all the nous he has gained with his vast experience. Stekelenburg in goal has played a lot for Ajax in the last few years and is a steadying influence at the back too.
Now, I will have to concede that I am not massively familiar with Slovakia's team individually, although I was very impressed with the way they put out holders Italy with their 3-2 victory in the group stage. Similarly to Holland the defence have played together for a few years now giving them the familiarity that comes with that. Marek Cech of West Brom and Martin Skrtel of Liverpool are names that readers may recognise from English football. They are definitely a typical no-nonsense Eastern European team at the back, you wont see Skrtel striding out of defence to set up attacks! They conceded 10 goals in 10 games in qualifying and 4 in 3 so far at this World Cup. I would summise form this that they are fairly resolute, but definitely there for picking off as if you look at their qualifying group it was very weak. Whilst respect should be given for topping the group, they did concede to San Marino!
Midfield
After a period of exile under Marco Van Basten, Bert Van Marjiik has re-instated his son-in-law Mark Van Bommel to the centre of midfield next to Man City's destroyer Nigel De Jong. These 2 allow Holland's more creative midfielders to shine without having to worry too much about defensive responsibility. I am a huge fan of both players personally, Van Bommel's experience allows him to make 'tactical fouling' an art-form, as anyone who watched Bayern Munich's progression in Europe this year will surely identify! Nigel De Jong might not receive the plaudits that some of his more illustrious team-mates at Man City do, but in my eyes he is every bit as good as the oft-heralded Javier Mascherano if not even better due to his bigger and more athletic physique. Van Der Vaart and Sneijder are the 2 more attacking midfielders ans are the men I would expect to pull Slovakia about and run the game. If these 2 are on form then I can see Slovakia getting a sound beating here. For me, Wesley Sneijder was the most important player in Europe last year, guiding Inter Milan to a treble of Champions League, Serie A and the Copa Italia. He played in a similar position for Inter as he will for Holland pulling the strings behind the forwards and is also a dead-ball specialist to boot. Van Der Vaart was expected to be Holland's next world superstar when he came through the Ajax academy, and whilst never hitting those heights he is a fine player too in good form from the end of the season at Real Madrid.
For Slovakia there are a few players fans of European football may have heard of. Marek Hamsik of Napoli is often mentioned as being the target of many a big team and it is easy to see why. The captain of this Slovakia team is an intelligent player with a keen eye for a pass and a good shot from distance too. Slovakia will look to him to improve on his World Cup performances so far if they are to get a result today. Stanislav Sestak provides the experience in midfield. The 34 year old Bochum player may be getting on, but in a fairly young team his nous and experience is vital. They also have 2 exciting young players currently in English teams squads, Miroslav Stoch at Chelsea and Vladimir Weiss at Man City. Both of these players have impressed in smaller leagues on loan this season, Weiss at Twente in Holland and Stoch at Galatasaray in Turkey, and will hope to continue this form at the World Cup to force their way into Premier League squads or to gain a move elsewhere. I would expect Holland's players vast experience at this level and in Europe with their clubs will see them overpower Slovakia and dominate possession. Marek Hamsik will need to have the game of his life to give Slovakia a hope!
Attack
Again, in attack Holland are very strong. They have been playing with Van Persie off Kuyt with Van Der Vaart and Sneijder coming through to provide extra support. And if those 4 players don't fill you with fear then frankly you're inhuman! I have mentioned Van Der Vaart and Sneijder already so I'll move on to Kuyt and Van Persie. Dirk Kuyt is the sort of man who divides football fans opinions. To some he is the willing worker up-front that lets the more creative and skilful players do their thing. But, to me he is Holland's Emile Heskey! Although saying that he does provide more of a goal-threat and has been known to score some important goals, so maybe I'm wrong. Holland certainly haven't suffered with him in the team. Van Persie is one of those if-only tales where he seems destined not to reach his undoubted potential due to injuries. He regularly has scored for both Holland and Arsenal when fit and has looked good since returning from injury at the very end of the Premier League season. I would expect him to give Slovakia's centre backs a torrid time today and will often unleash a thunderbolt from his rocket of a left foot.
Slovakia's main man, and all time joint record goalscorer (with ex-Middlesborough 'star' Szilard Nemeth!) is Robert Vittek. He was out-scored by the more experienced Sestak, but he does the hard-running and will be expected to hold the ball up a lot to let the midfielders, especially Sestak and Hamsik bomb on. This will be especially important today to give his defence some respite with Holland's attack no doubt working the Slovak defence hard. It is a hell of a task and I think this will be too much to ask of him in this match.
Betting
As you may have gathered from my write-up I can only see one result today, and that's a victory for Holland. They were widely available to finish the match in 90 minutes at 1/2 and I would fully expect them to do that. I would also look for them to cover a one goal handicap at around 10/11 if you want a bit more value. I'd be loath to handicap them more than that as so far their attack have not quite clicked and opened the floodgates. With that in mind I would also look at backing under 2.5 goals at around the even money mark and I'd also take a look at Holland to keep a clean-sheet at around 10/11.
I will be back with my thoughts on the Brazil v Chile game later.
So, let's have a look at today's 2 matches and I am going to assess the teams in a different structure this time. I will look at the defence, then midfield, then attackers for both teams in turn. Then I will have a look at the betting at the end of each games assessment.
Holland v Slovakia, Kick-Off 3pm UK time.
Defence
Holland have so far only conceded 1 goal in 3 matches in the World Cup and only conceded 2 in the qualifying campaign. Whilst a lot of people, myself included, are not familiar with the names of some of the players in Holland's defence they are obviously a very successful unit. They know that first and foremost they are there to defend and whilst the full-backs are capable of attacking they are both disciplined. I had seen the young right-back Gregory Van Der Wiel's name mentioned with regards to a big move soon and I can understand why. He is defensively sound, very athletic and can get forward when necessary, he reminds me of Maicon of Brazil, and I can't offer higher praise than that! Van Bronckhorst at left-back has obviously been around for a while, and whilst he is definitely no spring-chicken, he has all the nous he has gained with his vast experience. Stekelenburg in goal has played a lot for Ajax in the last few years and is a steadying influence at the back too.
Now, I will have to concede that I am not massively familiar with Slovakia's team individually, although I was very impressed with the way they put out holders Italy with their 3-2 victory in the group stage. Similarly to Holland the defence have played together for a few years now giving them the familiarity that comes with that. Marek Cech of West Brom and Martin Skrtel of Liverpool are names that readers may recognise from English football. They are definitely a typical no-nonsense Eastern European team at the back, you wont see Skrtel striding out of defence to set up attacks! They conceded 10 goals in 10 games in qualifying and 4 in 3 so far at this World Cup. I would summise form this that they are fairly resolute, but definitely there for picking off as if you look at their qualifying group it was very weak. Whilst respect should be given for topping the group, they did concede to San Marino!
Midfield
After a period of exile under Marco Van Basten, Bert Van Marjiik has re-instated his son-in-law Mark Van Bommel to the centre of midfield next to Man City's destroyer Nigel De Jong. These 2 allow Holland's more creative midfielders to shine without having to worry too much about defensive responsibility. I am a huge fan of both players personally, Van Bommel's experience allows him to make 'tactical fouling' an art-form, as anyone who watched Bayern Munich's progression in Europe this year will surely identify! Nigel De Jong might not receive the plaudits that some of his more illustrious team-mates at Man City do, but in my eyes he is every bit as good as the oft-heralded Javier Mascherano if not even better due to his bigger and more athletic physique. Van Der Vaart and Sneijder are the 2 more attacking midfielders ans are the men I would expect to pull Slovakia about and run the game. If these 2 are on form then I can see Slovakia getting a sound beating here. For me, Wesley Sneijder was the most important player in Europe last year, guiding Inter Milan to a treble of Champions League, Serie A and the Copa Italia. He played in a similar position for Inter as he will for Holland pulling the strings behind the forwards and is also a dead-ball specialist to boot. Van Der Vaart was expected to be Holland's next world superstar when he came through the Ajax academy, and whilst never hitting those heights he is a fine player too in good form from the end of the season at Real Madrid.
For Slovakia there are a few players fans of European football may have heard of. Marek Hamsik of Napoli is often mentioned as being the target of many a big team and it is easy to see why. The captain of this Slovakia team is an intelligent player with a keen eye for a pass and a good shot from distance too. Slovakia will look to him to improve on his World Cup performances so far if they are to get a result today. Stanislav Sestak provides the experience in midfield. The 34 year old Bochum player may be getting on, but in a fairly young team his nous and experience is vital. They also have 2 exciting young players currently in English teams squads, Miroslav Stoch at Chelsea and Vladimir Weiss at Man City. Both of these players have impressed in smaller leagues on loan this season, Weiss at Twente in Holland and Stoch at Galatasaray in Turkey, and will hope to continue this form at the World Cup to force their way into Premier League squads or to gain a move elsewhere. I would expect Holland's players vast experience at this level and in Europe with their clubs will see them overpower Slovakia and dominate possession. Marek Hamsik will need to have the game of his life to give Slovakia a hope!
Attack
Again, in attack Holland are very strong. They have been playing with Van Persie off Kuyt with Van Der Vaart and Sneijder coming through to provide extra support. And if those 4 players don't fill you with fear then frankly you're inhuman! I have mentioned Van Der Vaart and Sneijder already so I'll move on to Kuyt and Van Persie. Dirk Kuyt is the sort of man who divides football fans opinions. To some he is the willing worker up-front that lets the more creative and skilful players do their thing. But, to me he is Holland's Emile Heskey! Although saying that he does provide more of a goal-threat and has been known to score some important goals, so maybe I'm wrong. Holland certainly haven't suffered with him in the team. Van Persie is one of those if-only tales where he seems destined not to reach his undoubted potential due to injuries. He regularly has scored for both Holland and Arsenal when fit and has looked good since returning from injury at the very end of the Premier League season. I would expect him to give Slovakia's centre backs a torrid time today and will often unleash a thunderbolt from his rocket of a left foot.
Slovakia's main man, and all time joint record goalscorer (with ex-Middlesborough 'star' Szilard Nemeth!) is Robert Vittek. He was out-scored by the more experienced Sestak, but he does the hard-running and will be expected to hold the ball up a lot to let the midfielders, especially Sestak and Hamsik bomb on. This will be especially important today to give his defence some respite with Holland's attack no doubt working the Slovak defence hard. It is a hell of a task and I think this will be too much to ask of him in this match.
Betting
As you may have gathered from my write-up I can only see one result today, and that's a victory for Holland. They were widely available to finish the match in 90 minutes at 1/2 and I would fully expect them to do that. I would also look for them to cover a one goal handicap at around 10/11 if you want a bit more value. I'd be loath to handicap them more than that as so far their attack have not quite clicked and opened the floodgates. With that in mind I would also look at backing under 2.5 goals at around the even money mark and I'd also take a look at Holland to keep a clean-sheet at around 10/11.
I will be back with my thoughts on the Brazil v Chile game later.
Thursday, 24 June 2010
And so to the Last 16...
Hello and welcome to my brand spanking new blog. I will be updating as often as possible during the World Cup from now on. And on that note here are my thoughts on the 4 games we already have decided for this weekend.
I shall start with England v Germany as surely games come no bigger than this meeting of 2 of histories better teams. I think this one has the potential to be a very interesting match-up with neither team putting out their strongest teams ever and I personally think it'll be a classic! Germany's strengths are their youthful team, pace up front and typical lack of nerves. Their weaknesses are a ponderous backline, massive reliance on Ozil to create and their relatively small size. England on the other hand are very experienced, in Rooney they have one of the world's best players when playing well and a truly exceptional manager who has seen it all, and won it all too! I think the result will hang on 2 players performances and the tactics employed by the managers. Ozil for Germany and Rooney for England are the men that the creativity and best moves will come from. Don't get me wrong, both are more than ably assisted, Rooney by Gerrard and Ozil by, one of my favourite players so far, Sami Khedira. Saying this though I think this game may be decided by a moment of artistry from one of these two. So far my money would be on Ozil to do this as he has been playing superbly in the tournament. However, he is still relatively inexperienced being only 21, and Rooney has shown he can perform on the highest stage and looked much improved against Slovenia.
I think both teams central defenders are susceptible to pace and a ball over the top. With this in mind I would expect if one of these managers to be looking to get strikers in behind the opposition and they should get chances that way. I would also expect Rooney and Ozil to be playing these balls through. The problem with this is that neither side favour playing a quick forward, both often choosing to play a player that's good in the air and can hold the ball up. Heskey will be likely to start again for England and Klose for Germany. Personally if I was either one of these managers I'd be tempted to take a chance on a smaller, quicker forward like Defoe for England or Cacau for Germany. I think this positive change could reap huge dividends for the brave manager.
From a betting perspective I would be looking at a low-scoring game with both teams being cancelled out, under 2.5 goals at a widely available 8/15. I would also fancy the full-backs to pick up bookings with quick wingers against defensively suspect full-backs. Glen Johnson and Holger Badstuber would be my tips in that market. I would also be tempted to dabble with the method of victory markets for some longer odds. Both are avilable at 9/1 to win in extra-time and 10/1 to win on penalties. Personally I would think Engalnd's experience will count the longer it goes on and would back them in either or both markets.
I will put further posts up soon about the other 3 games.
I shall start with England v Germany as surely games come no bigger than this meeting of 2 of histories better teams. I think this one has the potential to be a very interesting match-up with neither team putting out their strongest teams ever and I personally think it'll be a classic! Germany's strengths are their youthful team, pace up front and typical lack of nerves. Their weaknesses are a ponderous backline, massive reliance on Ozil to create and their relatively small size. England on the other hand are very experienced, in Rooney they have one of the world's best players when playing well and a truly exceptional manager who has seen it all, and won it all too! I think the result will hang on 2 players performances and the tactics employed by the managers. Ozil for Germany and Rooney for England are the men that the creativity and best moves will come from. Don't get me wrong, both are more than ably assisted, Rooney by Gerrard and Ozil by, one of my favourite players so far, Sami Khedira. Saying this though I think this game may be decided by a moment of artistry from one of these two. So far my money would be on Ozil to do this as he has been playing superbly in the tournament. However, he is still relatively inexperienced being only 21, and Rooney has shown he can perform on the highest stage and looked much improved against Slovenia.
I think both teams central defenders are susceptible to pace and a ball over the top. With this in mind I would expect if one of these managers to be looking to get strikers in behind the opposition and they should get chances that way. I would also expect Rooney and Ozil to be playing these balls through. The problem with this is that neither side favour playing a quick forward, both often choosing to play a player that's good in the air and can hold the ball up. Heskey will be likely to start again for England and Klose for Germany. Personally if I was either one of these managers I'd be tempted to take a chance on a smaller, quicker forward like Defoe for England or Cacau for Germany. I think this positive change could reap huge dividends for the brave manager.
From a betting perspective I would be looking at a low-scoring game with both teams being cancelled out, under 2.5 goals at a widely available 8/15. I would also fancy the full-backs to pick up bookings with quick wingers against defensively suspect full-backs. Glen Johnson and Holger Badstuber would be my tips in that market. I would also be tempted to dabble with the method of victory markets for some longer odds. Both are avilable at 9/1 to win in extra-time and 10/1 to win on penalties. Personally I would think Engalnd's experience will count the longer it goes on and would back them in either or both markets.
I will put further posts up soon about the other 3 games.
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