Hello again all. I'll be honest first of all and admit this tournament I have made some errors in my assessments of teams relative strengths and weaknesses. I was far too confident on Poland's chances, and possibly a bit too enthusiastic about France also. On the other side of the coin, I was unfairly critical of the Czech Republic and also possibly overstated Germany's brilliance somewhat. As with all facets of life, you should learn from your mistakes and I hope that I have learnt something from this tournament. Namely that defence should always be the key area in a tournament side, and sadly it let down Germany when pushed.
The Wednesday night semi final between Iberian neighbours Portugal and Spain was as tight as most thought it would be. Portugal started the match clearly with the intention to press and harry Spain from as far back as possible, and it looked like it would work for them too. Nani also started the match very well, getting on the end of raking passes from Bruno Alves in particular and then ploughing forward to worry the Spanish defence. The problem for them came in that for all their efforts, there was noone there to give them a lead and something to hold on to later on. Cristiano Ronaldo made some good runs, but he did not have the end product and was probably slightly selfish as he often can be. His performance was probably best summed up by his choice to take the last 'hero' penalty when if he is the designated taker and Captain he really should have led from the front in my opinion. Nothing was going right for him all night and his team would have been best served by him occasionally laying it on for someone else.
Spain were all at sea in the first half as Portugal's pressing really seemed to ruffle them and stop them getting into their normal rhythm. The half time break saw Portugal seemingly come back out either tired on determined to simply play for a draw and it gave Spain back the initiative. In the second half of normal time they didn't really take advantage of this, although removing the lumbering Alvaro Negredo for Cesc Fabregas certainly saw them seem much more comfortable getting back to their strikerless formation. Once Jesus Navas was also introduced to add pace and width it was the start of a period of dominance Spain carried into extra time. They could well have got a goal in extra time were it not for some brilliant defending by the Portugese back four as well as a brilliant save from goalkeeper Rui Patricio from Andres Iniesta. This saw penalties as the decider and Spain held their nerve far better to progress to yet another major final.
The second semi final last night had Germany taking on their bogey side Italy in Warsaw. Manager Joachim Low should be looking back on some of his decisions in terms of personnel and formation with embarrassment for me. What on earth the point of seeing Miroslav Klose and Marco Reus as the best players against Greece then dropping them to the bench was only he can explain. I have been critical of Mario Gomez before now and I'll repeat my criticisms again. He is a lumbering, flat-track bully in every sense of the term. In a thrashing he will get you a goal or three, but against an organised defence his complete lack of movement leaves sides as good as down to ten men. Germany were not at their best, but with him as the only man in advanced positions they were never likely to score. After finding themselves two behind at half time both Klose and Reus entered the fray, but it was too late to save the side. The choice to move Mesut Ozil from playmaker after two brilliant performances to accommodate the distinctly average Toni Kroos was also baffling and hopefully Low will be asked serious questions on his return to Germany.
Italy played the same game they did against England in effect, and once again it was enough to see off a very talented German side. The truly amazing thing for me was how presumably the German coaching staff have watched Italy and their only attack seems to be the ball from Andrea Pirlo or Ricardo Montolivo over the top to Mario Balotelli, and yet they were undone by it. The first goal from Balotelli was down to a complete mix up in the German defence allowing him to sneak in and head Italy in front, but the second was a comedy of errors. A simple over the top pass should have been intercepted by Philip Lahm, who instead seemed in about four minds as to what he would do and in the end chose to watch it over his head before forlornly chasing after the forward. The finish from Balotelli was important as he has seemed unwilling to pull the trigger all tournament and that must bode well for the final now. The second half was a masterclass in what the Italians do better than anyone else, hold onto a lead. The back four barely put a foot wrong until the late concession of a penalty by the otherwise excellent Federico Balzaretti. It was too late for Germany though and Italy progressed to meet Spain in Kiev.
Italy v Spain, Sunday 1945
So, we now reach the conclusion of the last two weeks in Kiev for the final of Euro 2012. Whilst I mentioned Italy as a dark horse I am surprised to see them make the final, but they've deserved it. You could criticise other sides for not making more of an effort to shut down Andrea Pirlo and therefore stop their most creative talent, but they haven't and Italy have taken full advantage. There is probably also something to be said for Daniele De Rossi's role as a marauding defensive midfielder, almost performing the protector role Gennaro Gattuso performed for so many years with distinction. The removal of the ineffective Thiago Motta for Ricardo Montolivo in the last two matches has also seen a better all round performance. Motta is a very effective defensive midfielder, but Cesare Prandelli's choice to almost play him as a trequartista in the group stages looked as flawed on paper as it proved on the pitch. Montonlivo plays naturally for Fiorentina in a more advanced position and has added another option for the Italian defence to play through looking for the forwards Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano. These two have formed an impressive partnership in the knockout games against England and Germany with Balotelli playing as a target man of sorts and Cassano having a free role to roam behind and pull the opposition defences around as much as he can. This was all too apparent against Germany where he opened up all manner of gaps for Baloteeli to exploit, as he did perfectly for his second goal. I have been called up on my criticism of his seeming unwillingness to pull the trigger in previous matches, but he let go against Germany and got a brace to put him in a confident mood for the final. As for the defence, it's like the old saying goes 'There are only three things in life you can count on, death, taxes and a resolute Italian back four'. Joking aside, they were immense against a Germany side whose attackers had looked so impressive in most other matches. The return of Giorgio Chiellini to the starting line-up certainly aided them, as his organisation and experience were key in keeping the German's at bay. They definitely looked a lot more stable in defence than when they gifted England a few early chances in his absence. Having Chiellini and Balotelli fit and in form cannot be overstated in it's importance for the final on Sunday.
Spain have come in for criticism in this tournament for sticking with a style of play that certainly brings results for them, but at the expense of any real entertainment for the neutral. Many have been calling for a traditional forward to start for Spain and provide more cut and thrust and it seemed Vicente Del Bosque relented to the pressure and started Sevilla's Alvaro Negredo against Portugal. Having seen him lumber around and have the ball bounce off him for the first half it was no great surprise to see Cesc Fabregas brought on at half time and Spain revert back to their nominal 4-6-0 formation for the second period. This, coupled with Portugal abandoning their high pressure tactics, saw Spain gradually get into the game and assert their usual dominance of possession. Whilst they still didn't look particularly likely to score in normal time, they controlled the game to the extent Portugal were never going to. It is this almost anaesthatising of matches that makes them liable to criticism from neutrals. I am definitely in the camp that says they would like to see them go for the goals more, but it is incredibly hard to argue with a style of play that has them on the cusp of a unique hat-trick of tournament wins in a row. It is up to the opposition to beat them in reality, and as yet noone has established a system to beat them. Their pressurising of the ball will presumably put the pressure on Pirlo that England and Germany failed to do and it will be up to De Rossi and Montolivo to provide enough support to get him the time to pick his passes. Whilst Jordi Alba and Sergio Ramos have had good tournaments in defence for Spain, although they have mostly been praised for their attacking play. Gerard Pique came into the tournament off the back of a dreadful season for Barcelona and I think he is there to be gotten at by Balotelli. I think having seen Portugal limit Spain to just a couple of chances, the organised Italian defence should be able to do the same. In the group match between the two Italy showed they could create chances and with Balotelli on the back of a man of the match performance against Germany I think Spain are there to be layed.
Lay Spain at 2.2 on Betfair.
Back Both Teams To Score at 2.3 with BetVictor.
Back Mario Balotelli To Score Anytime at 3.75 with SportingBet.
Friday, 29 June 2012
Monday, 25 June 2012
We've Got Semi's...
Lol.
Hello again one and all. After admitting my guilt in some less than brilliant tips during the Group Stages of Euro 2012 I came storming back somewhat with the Quarter Finals. I got doubles up on the Portugal v Czech Rep and on Italy v England last night with profits on both nights for the other two matches too. It should be easier to predict when you know every player and system and it seems to have proved that way!
Both the Portugal v Czech Republic and Germany v Greece ended up with only one side looking likely to win in either match, although both suffered scares of sorts. In Portugal's case Cristiano Ronaldo managed to hit the post twice before he eventually netted the winner in the last fifteen minutes. The Real Madrid man's importance really can't be overstated in a side that does not look likely to score without his aid. The midfield and defence easily coped with the minimal threat posed by the Czech's too, with once again only the wingers impressing in fits and starts. Germany made numerous attacking changes for the match against Greece and showed off the skills of relative newcomers Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus. Reus in particular was a player who I have followed this season in the Bundesliga and he lived up to his performances for Monchengladbach by looking a constant threat and scoring too. Joachim Low is now in the envious position of having to pick three forwards from six who have all done well so far. And if he does reinstate any of Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski or Thomas Muller then they will be much fresher than their Italian counterparts. It is this amazing squad depth as much as anything else that makes them such hot favourites to triumph overall.
Spain's match followed the usual template sadly for those expecting any sort of thrills and spills. Laurent Blanc presumably fancied his side to soak up the Spanish pressure and hope for a break or set piece. Sadly his choice to leave his best wide players in the tournament, Samir Nasri and Jeremy Menez, left them looking completely impotent. Spain scored early after a rare cross from the byline from Jordi Alba was converted by Xabi Alonso. They then passed France into submission before gaining an injury time penalty which Alonso again scored. Last night saw England's match with Italy and it was actually more entertaining than I had expected. This was probably as much down to both sides taking most of the first half to settle down and both sides having chances. Mario Balotelli could have had three on a better night, but he hasn't looked completely confident in front of goal the whole tournament to me. England's defence again looked good, but Wayne Rooney has not performed since returning and was again ineffective and Scott Parker looked lost again at this level with a slower tempo. The better side probably did go through on balance. The fact that Germany have had extra rest and the match went to extra time and penalties should be a cause for concern for Cesare Prandelli though you would imagine.
Portugal v Spain, Wednesday 1945
These two neighbours go head to head on Wednesday night for the right to contest the final. Portugal are not anywhere near bad enough to be labelled a one man team, but they are possibly a one man attack. Whilst support comes from Nani, and probably Hugo Almeida after Helder Postiga's injury against the Czech's, if Ronaldo is subdued then Portugal don't look likely to score. Fortunately for Paulo Bento this has not been too much of an issue with Ronaldo looking brilliant in his last two matches and happy to have the responsibility of leading the side. Whatever you think of the man he is a brilliant player and second only to Lionel Messi in the world. Having led to Real Madrid to the La Liga title this season too he will know that if Portugal win Euro 2012 he will be nailed on to also take the World Player of The Year trophy himself. With the ego we all know he has this should provide all the motivation he needs to again perform. So far the defence has been relatively untested by a bombardment. Germany failed to sparkle when beating them 1-0 and Holland and Denmark only threatened sporadically, whilst the Czech's were no threat at all. A lot of this can be put down to the midfield three I think of Raul Meireles, Joao Moutinho and Miguel Veloso and there constant work off the ball. These three have all been clearly instructed to harry and chase the opposition then to look for Ronaldo or Nani when they have the ball themselves. Moutinho was the standout of the three against the Czech's with his constant intelligent use of the ball and assist for the goal. All three will need to be on top of their games to stop the Spanish midfield creating chances and to protect their defence. The fact that, rather than France, already play this system should actually help their cause and I would expect to see Ronaldo get a few chances if the midfield is playing well.
Spain have progressed largely without trouble, but have also failed to inspire either. They seem at times to be content to simply pass the ball around in midfield with no thought to grab a goal at all. Whether this is actually the gameplan or a reaction to the fact Xavi and Andres Iniesta are missing the dynamism of David Villa and club mate Messi to pass to is another question. The duty of being the furthest forward attacker has so far fallen to both Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres at different times. I think everyone is aware of Torres struggles since joining Chelsea last January and Fabregas has looked lively, but he is not a natural finisher. This has led to calls for either Fernando Llorente or Alvaro Negredo to get some time on the pitch to stake a claim from many in Spain as even the locals get bored by the lack of cutting edge the team has. The centre of defence is also not exactly secure at present with Gerard Pique coming off the back of his worst club season to date and Sergio Ramos not really being a natural centre back any more. Croatia and Italy both had chances against the Spaniard's and if they give up too many to Ronaldo he won't miss them all. They did come from behind to draw against Italy, but against a defence as well protected as Portugal's they may find it tougher. You can almost guarantee a tight match where Spain are involved as no team sees enough of the ball to run away with a match, and even fewer have the confidence to attack from the off. I wrote Portugal off pre-tournament, but I am now going to predict an upset and I think they will again make the final like they did at home in 2004.
Back Portugal To Qualify at 3.13 with StanJames.
Back Cristiano Ronaldo To Score Anytime at 3.0 with SportingBet.
Germany v Italy, Thursday 1945
The other Semi Final again sees two of Europe's most successful teams meeting. Germany have been mine and many others tip for the entire tournament from the outset and against Greece the attack finally came to life. Whilst Thomas Muller was doing a decent job for the team and Lukas Podolski had scored in the final group match, Joachim Low decided to rotate his entire forward line. This saw the introduction of seasoned campaigner Miroslav Klose and the two exciting young talents of Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus coming in. Both Klose and Reus scored in the 4-2 win and Schurrle certainly looked more lively than Muller or Podolski had for the majority of the tournament so far. The other benefit of this was that Mario Gomez and Podolski and Muller are completely rested now if they are restored to the starting line-up and that can only be a good thing for Germany. The defence has given away chances, as can be seen in conceding two to a Greek side with no great attacking talent, but this is probably more due to all of the defenders being allowed to march forward in the knowledge they'll score more than the opposition. Mats Hummels and Philip Lahm have both been found in shooting positions at times and they may well be asked to stay back a little more against a decent Italy side. There is also the fact Bastian Schweinsteiger is again carrying a knock and isn't training very much, but he should start again, albeit with slightly reduced mobility. Fortunately for him both Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil have been playing well so he should be able to sit back and simply pick passes again. I'm certain Italy will get chances, but I'm even more certain Germany will have more and possess better finishers in great form.
Italy came through on penalties against England and will be buoyant from that. However comma this must be weighed up against the two days less rest they have and the extra half hour they played for. There were also weaknesses again on show against England that would have been exploited by a better side. The defence gave away numerous chances that England's forwards failed to capitalise on in an opening half hour where they did not settle at all. If there is a repeat of this against Germany they could easily be two behind before they know what's happened. The loss of Giorgio Chiellini to injury is a huge miss for them as he, along with the ever excellent Gianluigi Buffon, is the main organiser of the defence and by far the most experienced of Italy's defenders. Once Italy had settled it was again Andrea Pirlo who dictated the way the game went. England's players presumably had not been instructed to apply extra pressure to the Juventus man and it allowed him to wander around picking up the ball and starting attacks almost at his leisure. I would foresee Sami Khedira being detailed to keep a close eye on him at all times and with him also likely to be feeling the effects of the Quarter Final at thirty three years old, Khedira will fancy his chances of stopping him. The other slight worry is that whilst Mario Balotelli has got himself into great positions throughout the tournament, he has looked edgy and unwilling to pull the trigger. If the bulk of Italy's chances again fall to him and he is off colour then they'll have no chance. All in all I think this is a step to far for an Italy side who have done well to get this far.
Back Germany at 1.9 with Paddy Power.
Back Marco Reus (only if he is named in the starting line-up) To Score Anytime at 3.75 with SkyBet.
Back Second Half in Half With Most Goals at 2.25 with Coral.
Hello again one and all. After admitting my guilt in some less than brilliant tips during the Group Stages of Euro 2012 I came storming back somewhat with the Quarter Finals. I got doubles up on the Portugal v Czech Rep and on Italy v England last night with profits on both nights for the other two matches too. It should be easier to predict when you know every player and system and it seems to have proved that way!
Both the Portugal v Czech Republic and Germany v Greece ended up with only one side looking likely to win in either match, although both suffered scares of sorts. In Portugal's case Cristiano Ronaldo managed to hit the post twice before he eventually netted the winner in the last fifteen minutes. The Real Madrid man's importance really can't be overstated in a side that does not look likely to score without his aid. The midfield and defence easily coped with the minimal threat posed by the Czech's too, with once again only the wingers impressing in fits and starts. Germany made numerous attacking changes for the match against Greece and showed off the skills of relative newcomers Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus. Reus in particular was a player who I have followed this season in the Bundesliga and he lived up to his performances for Monchengladbach by looking a constant threat and scoring too. Joachim Low is now in the envious position of having to pick three forwards from six who have all done well so far. And if he does reinstate any of Mario Gomez, Lukas Podolski or Thomas Muller then they will be much fresher than their Italian counterparts. It is this amazing squad depth as much as anything else that makes them such hot favourites to triumph overall.
Spain's match followed the usual template sadly for those expecting any sort of thrills and spills. Laurent Blanc presumably fancied his side to soak up the Spanish pressure and hope for a break or set piece. Sadly his choice to leave his best wide players in the tournament, Samir Nasri and Jeremy Menez, left them looking completely impotent. Spain scored early after a rare cross from the byline from Jordi Alba was converted by Xabi Alonso. They then passed France into submission before gaining an injury time penalty which Alonso again scored. Last night saw England's match with Italy and it was actually more entertaining than I had expected. This was probably as much down to both sides taking most of the first half to settle down and both sides having chances. Mario Balotelli could have had three on a better night, but he hasn't looked completely confident in front of goal the whole tournament to me. England's defence again looked good, but Wayne Rooney has not performed since returning and was again ineffective and Scott Parker looked lost again at this level with a slower tempo. The better side probably did go through on balance. The fact that Germany have had extra rest and the match went to extra time and penalties should be a cause for concern for Cesare Prandelli though you would imagine.
Portugal v Spain, Wednesday 1945
These two neighbours go head to head on Wednesday night for the right to contest the final. Portugal are not anywhere near bad enough to be labelled a one man team, but they are possibly a one man attack. Whilst support comes from Nani, and probably Hugo Almeida after Helder Postiga's injury against the Czech's, if Ronaldo is subdued then Portugal don't look likely to score. Fortunately for Paulo Bento this has not been too much of an issue with Ronaldo looking brilliant in his last two matches and happy to have the responsibility of leading the side. Whatever you think of the man he is a brilliant player and second only to Lionel Messi in the world. Having led to Real Madrid to the La Liga title this season too he will know that if Portugal win Euro 2012 he will be nailed on to also take the World Player of The Year trophy himself. With the ego we all know he has this should provide all the motivation he needs to again perform. So far the defence has been relatively untested by a bombardment. Germany failed to sparkle when beating them 1-0 and Holland and Denmark only threatened sporadically, whilst the Czech's were no threat at all. A lot of this can be put down to the midfield three I think of Raul Meireles, Joao Moutinho and Miguel Veloso and there constant work off the ball. These three have all been clearly instructed to harry and chase the opposition then to look for Ronaldo or Nani when they have the ball themselves. Moutinho was the standout of the three against the Czech's with his constant intelligent use of the ball and assist for the goal. All three will need to be on top of their games to stop the Spanish midfield creating chances and to protect their defence. The fact that, rather than France, already play this system should actually help their cause and I would expect to see Ronaldo get a few chances if the midfield is playing well.
Spain have progressed largely without trouble, but have also failed to inspire either. They seem at times to be content to simply pass the ball around in midfield with no thought to grab a goal at all. Whether this is actually the gameplan or a reaction to the fact Xavi and Andres Iniesta are missing the dynamism of David Villa and club mate Messi to pass to is another question. The duty of being the furthest forward attacker has so far fallen to both Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres at different times. I think everyone is aware of Torres struggles since joining Chelsea last January and Fabregas has looked lively, but he is not a natural finisher. This has led to calls for either Fernando Llorente or Alvaro Negredo to get some time on the pitch to stake a claim from many in Spain as even the locals get bored by the lack of cutting edge the team has. The centre of defence is also not exactly secure at present with Gerard Pique coming off the back of his worst club season to date and Sergio Ramos not really being a natural centre back any more. Croatia and Italy both had chances against the Spaniard's and if they give up too many to Ronaldo he won't miss them all. They did come from behind to draw against Italy, but against a defence as well protected as Portugal's they may find it tougher. You can almost guarantee a tight match where Spain are involved as no team sees enough of the ball to run away with a match, and even fewer have the confidence to attack from the off. I wrote Portugal off pre-tournament, but I am now going to predict an upset and I think they will again make the final like they did at home in 2004.
Back Portugal To Qualify at 3.13 with StanJames.
Back Cristiano Ronaldo To Score Anytime at 3.0 with SportingBet.
Germany v Italy, Thursday 1945
The other Semi Final again sees two of Europe's most successful teams meeting. Germany have been mine and many others tip for the entire tournament from the outset and against Greece the attack finally came to life. Whilst Thomas Muller was doing a decent job for the team and Lukas Podolski had scored in the final group match, Joachim Low decided to rotate his entire forward line. This saw the introduction of seasoned campaigner Miroslav Klose and the two exciting young talents of Andres Schurrle and Marco Reus coming in. Both Klose and Reus scored in the 4-2 win and Schurrle certainly looked more lively than Muller or Podolski had for the majority of the tournament so far. The other benefit of this was that Mario Gomez and Podolski and Muller are completely rested now if they are restored to the starting line-up and that can only be a good thing for Germany. The defence has given away chances, as can be seen in conceding two to a Greek side with no great attacking talent, but this is probably more due to all of the defenders being allowed to march forward in the knowledge they'll score more than the opposition. Mats Hummels and Philip Lahm have both been found in shooting positions at times and they may well be asked to stay back a little more against a decent Italy side. There is also the fact Bastian Schweinsteiger is again carrying a knock and isn't training very much, but he should start again, albeit with slightly reduced mobility. Fortunately for him both Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil have been playing well so he should be able to sit back and simply pick passes again. I'm certain Italy will get chances, but I'm even more certain Germany will have more and possess better finishers in great form.
Italy came through on penalties against England and will be buoyant from that. However comma this must be weighed up against the two days less rest they have and the extra half hour they played for. There were also weaknesses again on show against England that would have been exploited by a better side. The defence gave away numerous chances that England's forwards failed to capitalise on in an opening half hour where they did not settle at all. If there is a repeat of this against Germany they could easily be two behind before they know what's happened. The loss of Giorgio Chiellini to injury is a huge miss for them as he, along with the ever excellent Gianluigi Buffon, is the main organiser of the defence and by far the most experienced of Italy's defenders. Once Italy had settled it was again Andrea Pirlo who dictated the way the game went. England's players presumably had not been instructed to apply extra pressure to the Juventus man and it allowed him to wander around picking up the ball and starting attacks almost at his leisure. I would foresee Sami Khedira being detailed to keep a close eye on him at all times and with him also likely to be feeling the effects of the Quarter Final at thirty three years old, Khedira will fancy his chances of stopping him. The other slight worry is that whilst Mario Balotelli has got himself into great positions throughout the tournament, he has looked edgy and unwilling to pull the trigger. If the bulk of Italy's chances again fall to him and he is off colour then they'll have no chance. All in all I think this is a step to far for an Italy side who have done well to get this far.
Back Germany at 1.9 with Paddy Power.
Back Marco Reus (only if he is named in the starting line-up) To Score Anytime at 3.75 with SkyBet.
Back Second Half in Half With Most Goals at 2.25 with Coral.
Friday, 22 June 2012
And Then There Was Eight, Part 2...
The first Quarter Final between Portugal and the Czech Republic was played last night, and it went largely as I would have expected. Portugal are not a hugely attacking side so it was always likely to be decided by a moment of brilliance from either Cristiano Ronaldo or Nani, as it happened Ronaldo had another brilliant match and got the only goal to see Portugal into the Semi Finals. We also got both tips up to almost double our money, hopefully this turn around in fortunes will last for the rest of the tournament.
A reminder that tonight is Germany v Greece and I have picked Germany -1 on the Handicap market and Mario Gomez to score. I can see this going off as either a complete attacking display from the German's, or if Greece can hold out for a while then as another efficient one or two nil win.
Spain v France, Saturday 1945
Spain are on for a historic hat-trick of tournament wins here, but as many have pointed out, they are not the team they were even two years ago anymore. They still dominate possession in every match they play with Xavi and Andres Iniesta as the fulcrum of the midfield, but they no longer possess anyone who can regularly finish these moves off. The loss to injury of David Villa early in last season has hurt them more than many were willing to give credit for. As a striker originally he always had in mind that moves should finish with a shot, which is something a lot of the rest of the side seem nervous of. The likes of David Silva, Cesc Fabregas and Iniesta have all been played along the forward line in the tournament, and Fabregas and Iniesta have looked good, but none of them have the goalscoring instincts that a striker would have. I can understand why Vicente Del Bosque has left Fernando Torres, Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo on the bench as Torres is hopelessly out of form and the other two don't naturally fit into Spain's style, but something may have to change if they are to win the whole thing. I still expect Del Bosque to start with Fabregas as his nominal striker in this match though as France can probably be nullified by packing the midfield as they too don't use a traditional striker. There has been something of a backlash in the Spanish media too over the fact Llorente and Negredo have not had a minute on the pitch between them, but they probably aren't hugely necessary to win this game.
France progressed in second in the end from Group D thanks to an insipid performance in their last match resulting in a 2-0 loss to Sweden. I had actually thought the Swede's had been very unlucky to lose their first two matches, and with Zlatan Ibrahimovic finally delivering for his country they were always dangerous. The thing that has shocked me somewhat is France's lack of cutting edge and urgency in the final third. Whilst there had been warnings that their defence could be a weakness it was largely supposed to be balanced out by their thrilling attackers. Karim Benzema in particular came into the tournament having finally come good on his huge promise at Real Madrid in the preceeding season, but he has not looked up to much to me. I have read that apparently his movement has been excellent, and maybe I've missed that, but he has rarely looked threatening. When you also have Franck Ribery and Samir Nasri hardly in sparkling form and it leaves them looking unlikely to live up to the hype as potential outsiders. This is without even mentioning the defence which was exposed in every single match and showed no signs of improvement. The suspension of hot-headed Phillipe Mexes could actually be a blessing in disguise as he has shown himself able to cope with Barcelona at Arsenal and that is still basically the Spain model. That being said I still find it hard to see France making many chances or keeping a clean sheet so I think this goes Spain's way.
Back Spain at 1.85 with BetVictor.
Back Spain 1-0 at 6.5 with Ladbrokes.
England v Italy, Sunday 1945
This is a match many expected England would not make it to after the squad was named and the warm-up friendlies played. To say some of the names in the squad were uninspiring is an understatement, and Roy Hodgson's tactic of ceding possession no matter the opposition is at times horrible to watch, but they qualified top of Group D. They have shown in every match that defence is their strongest area and for that reason it probably is no surprise to see the tactics Hodgson is employing. Joe Hart is again looking a hugely promising goalkeeper and in front of him all of the back four have had good tournaments. The full backs Glen Johnson and Ashley Cole have obviously been instructed to defend first and it has made them look very solid, which is a real bonus in the case of Johnson. John Terry and Joleon Lescott have also looked solid for the majority of the time at centre back, although Terry has again looked susceptible to pace and Italy will presumably have noticed that. I have always been a critic of Steven Gerrard for England and his tendency to not stick to a position and always try his 'Hollywood' balls, but he has been discipline personified so far and it is to his and Hodgson's immense credit. The other three midfielders have looked less impressive to me. Scott Parker looks headless at times and he is not the player some would have you believe, Ashley Young has looked good for around 20 minutes so far and James Milner is hard-working, but incredibly limited at this level. In the case of Young he is probably worth persisting with, but I'm not sure about the other two. Danny Welbeck and Wayne Rooney started the last match, and offered very little cohesion or threat for the most part. Rooney's touch again looked awful and his goal really came from a goalkeeping error and a 2 yard finish anyone could have scored. Welbeck moved around a lot without really doing anything. I would probably get Andy Carroll in for his physical threat and keep Rooney as he is more comfortable dropping deep and crossing for the big man.
Italy will line-up in a very similar fashion to England with two banks of four and probably Antonio Cassano and Antonio Di Natale up front. This could lead to a very dull match with both sides probably cancelling each other out for long spells. The biggest worry for the Italian's will be the loss of Giorgio Chiellini at centre back due to injury as he is the chief organiser and most experienced defender they have. More responsibility will now fall upon the goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon to organise the defence, which he should be able to do with his vast experience. Buffon has always been one of my favourite players due to his absolute brilliance throughout a twelve year career so far with very few spells where his performance dropped below outstanding. I would expect Leonardo Bonucci to step in to partner his club mate Andrea Barzagli so there shouldn't be too much problem there they will hope. The key player for Italy so far has been another veteran, Andrea Pirlo. His performances against Spain and in the first half against Croatia were excellent, but he was subdued thereafter. Italy will be hoping the rest he has had now will see him back to his best as he has more than enough to dictate the match with England happy to give up possession. The it will fall to Di Natale and Cassano to finish off any moves that Pirlo starts. Di Natale has had another brilliant season for Udinese, but his knees need rest and that is why he was withdrawn against Irleand presumably with this match in mind. If he and Cassano link up properly they could really cause problems for England. This one could well go to Extra Time, if not even penalties.
Back the Draw at 3.1 with Stan James.
Back Under 1.5 Goals at 2.5 with SkyBet.
A reminder that tonight is Germany v Greece and I have picked Germany -1 on the Handicap market and Mario Gomez to score. I can see this going off as either a complete attacking display from the German's, or if Greece can hold out for a while then as another efficient one or two nil win.
Spain v France, Saturday 1945
Spain are on for a historic hat-trick of tournament wins here, but as many have pointed out, they are not the team they were even two years ago anymore. They still dominate possession in every match they play with Xavi and Andres Iniesta as the fulcrum of the midfield, but they no longer possess anyone who can regularly finish these moves off. The loss to injury of David Villa early in last season has hurt them more than many were willing to give credit for. As a striker originally he always had in mind that moves should finish with a shot, which is something a lot of the rest of the side seem nervous of. The likes of David Silva, Cesc Fabregas and Iniesta have all been played along the forward line in the tournament, and Fabregas and Iniesta have looked good, but none of them have the goalscoring instincts that a striker would have. I can understand why Vicente Del Bosque has left Fernando Torres, Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo on the bench as Torres is hopelessly out of form and the other two don't naturally fit into Spain's style, but something may have to change if they are to win the whole thing. I still expect Del Bosque to start with Fabregas as his nominal striker in this match though as France can probably be nullified by packing the midfield as they too don't use a traditional striker. There has been something of a backlash in the Spanish media too over the fact Llorente and Negredo have not had a minute on the pitch between them, but they probably aren't hugely necessary to win this game.
France progressed in second in the end from Group D thanks to an insipid performance in their last match resulting in a 2-0 loss to Sweden. I had actually thought the Swede's had been very unlucky to lose their first two matches, and with Zlatan Ibrahimovic finally delivering for his country they were always dangerous. The thing that has shocked me somewhat is France's lack of cutting edge and urgency in the final third. Whilst there had been warnings that their defence could be a weakness it was largely supposed to be balanced out by their thrilling attackers. Karim Benzema in particular came into the tournament having finally come good on his huge promise at Real Madrid in the preceeding season, but he has not looked up to much to me. I have read that apparently his movement has been excellent, and maybe I've missed that, but he has rarely looked threatening. When you also have Franck Ribery and Samir Nasri hardly in sparkling form and it leaves them looking unlikely to live up to the hype as potential outsiders. This is without even mentioning the defence which was exposed in every single match and showed no signs of improvement. The suspension of hot-headed Phillipe Mexes could actually be a blessing in disguise as he has shown himself able to cope with Barcelona at Arsenal and that is still basically the Spain model. That being said I still find it hard to see France making many chances or keeping a clean sheet so I think this goes Spain's way.
Back Spain at 1.85 with BetVictor.
Back Spain 1-0 at 6.5 with Ladbrokes.
England v Italy, Sunday 1945
This is a match many expected England would not make it to after the squad was named and the warm-up friendlies played. To say some of the names in the squad were uninspiring is an understatement, and Roy Hodgson's tactic of ceding possession no matter the opposition is at times horrible to watch, but they qualified top of Group D. They have shown in every match that defence is their strongest area and for that reason it probably is no surprise to see the tactics Hodgson is employing. Joe Hart is again looking a hugely promising goalkeeper and in front of him all of the back four have had good tournaments. The full backs Glen Johnson and Ashley Cole have obviously been instructed to defend first and it has made them look very solid, which is a real bonus in the case of Johnson. John Terry and Joleon Lescott have also looked solid for the majority of the time at centre back, although Terry has again looked susceptible to pace and Italy will presumably have noticed that. I have always been a critic of Steven Gerrard for England and his tendency to not stick to a position and always try his 'Hollywood' balls, but he has been discipline personified so far and it is to his and Hodgson's immense credit. The other three midfielders have looked less impressive to me. Scott Parker looks headless at times and he is not the player some would have you believe, Ashley Young has looked good for around 20 minutes so far and James Milner is hard-working, but incredibly limited at this level. In the case of Young he is probably worth persisting with, but I'm not sure about the other two. Danny Welbeck and Wayne Rooney started the last match, and offered very little cohesion or threat for the most part. Rooney's touch again looked awful and his goal really came from a goalkeeping error and a 2 yard finish anyone could have scored. Welbeck moved around a lot without really doing anything. I would probably get Andy Carroll in for his physical threat and keep Rooney as he is more comfortable dropping deep and crossing for the big man.
Italy will line-up in a very similar fashion to England with two banks of four and probably Antonio Cassano and Antonio Di Natale up front. This could lead to a very dull match with both sides probably cancelling each other out for long spells. The biggest worry for the Italian's will be the loss of Giorgio Chiellini at centre back due to injury as he is the chief organiser and most experienced defender they have. More responsibility will now fall upon the goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon to organise the defence, which he should be able to do with his vast experience. Buffon has always been one of my favourite players due to his absolute brilliance throughout a twelve year career so far with very few spells where his performance dropped below outstanding. I would expect Leonardo Bonucci to step in to partner his club mate Andrea Barzagli so there shouldn't be too much problem there they will hope. The key player for Italy so far has been another veteran, Andrea Pirlo. His performances against Spain and in the first half against Croatia were excellent, but he was subdued thereafter. Italy will be hoping the rest he has had now will see him back to his best as he has more than enough to dictate the match with England happy to give up possession. The it will fall to Di Natale and Cassano to finish off any moves that Pirlo starts. Di Natale has had another brilliant season for Udinese, but his knees need rest and that is why he was withdrawn against Irleand presumably with this match in mind. If he and Cassano link up properly they could really cause problems for England. This one could well go to Extra Time, if not even penalties.
Back the Draw at 3.1 with Stan James.
Back Under 1.5 Goals at 2.5 with SkyBet.
Wednesday, 20 June 2012
And Then There Was Eight...
That's the groups out of the way then, and it was not my finest tipping time ever. I could make the excuse that with the amount of shocks it would be hard for anyone to have come out in huge profit, but I'm still disappointed. Hopefully there's still enough time to recoup the losses made.
Three out of the four Quarter Finals do look like they could become walkovers as the teams on paper look pretty unevenly matched up. Because of the turnaround in Group A resulting in Greece and the Czech Republic progressing you would imagine they would provide little trouble to the might of Germany and Portugal respectively. It's not that the Greek's or the Czech's are awful sides, although both have looked it at times, rather that the amount of chances they give away will surely be punished by the attackers Germany and Portugal possess. The other side of the draw has Spain taking on France and England meeting Italy. This certainly has the feel of four European powers meeting, although all four sides could be said to be playing under their capabilities so far.
I'm going to release this in two parts with slightly longer appraisals of each side than normal.
Czech Republic v Portugal, Thursday 1945
As mentioned this looks like it has every chance of being a bit of a procession in Portugal's favour tomorrow night. I certainly made a mistake in labelling the Czech's the worst team here pre-tournament, especially with Ireland being around, but I still don't think they're much of a side. They did do exceptionally well to regroup after a 4-1 thrashing in their first match against Russia, but they could be in for more of the same in this match. In every match so far they have conceded chances to the opposition and are now about to face a side possessing probably the most potent attacker at the tournament in Cristiano Ronaldo, it will take some performance by the defence to keep him at bay for ninety minutes. The other issue is that Petr Cech has looked suspect on a number of occasions already and it looks like his superb performances at the back end of the season for Chelsea were now the exception rather than the rule. He really has never been the same since his head injury against Reading a few years ago and it's a shame as he could have gone on to become one of the best around in his position. The best players for the Czech's so far have been their wingers Vaclav Pilar and Petr Jiracek. They have both been very busy and have in fact both also scored, fortunate as the main striker is still Milan Baros and he has long since stopped being a top level player. Their best chance is to attack Portugal from wide areas to utilise their best players, but I still don't hold out much hope for them.
Portugal have at times looked like Ronaldo and ten others. This is not entirely surprising when he is the best player on show here and scored sixty goals for Real Madrid last season though. With Portugal still lacking a top level centre forward they are almost forced to put both the creative and scoring burden on Ronaldo's shoulders, thankfully in the last group match he looked as though he would take this on. He was absolutely everywhere against Holland in their comeback from 1-0 down to win 2-1 and qualify for the Quarter Finals, also adding both goals to also leave him hunting the Golden Boot. Throw in the fact he could also make a very strong claim for World Player Of The Year if he leads Portugal and Real Madrid to glory this year and you have a very convincing case for him to keep this level up. The rest of the side barring Nani and probably Helder Postiga are more concentrated on defending. The midfield centre is packed with high energy players who are there to chase and harry the opposition and then loo to give the ball to Ronaldo primarily, or Nani, at the earliest opportunity. The only chance I think the Czech's have is to try and rattle Portugal's centre backs Pepe and Bruno Alves. Both are notorious hot-heads and have received numerous red cards in their careers so could possibly be prone to lapses in judgement if pushed. However comma I still think this should be a fairly easy Portugal win.
Back Portugal at 1.8 with Paddy Power.
Back Cristiano Ronaldo To Score Anytime at 2.25 with Ladbrokes.
Germany v Greece, Friday 1945
My antepost tip for the whole tournament was Germany, and I see no reason to be worried about them so far. They've not blown anyone away yet, but at no point have I been worried they would fail to win a match. It may well be a cliche, but it is nevertheless true, that they are ruthlessly efficient and a real tournament side. Manuel Neuer in goal looks to have put an up and down season at Bayern Munich behind him and is showing why he is so highly though of. The defence has looked absolutely rock solid and any worries about Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng have been proven without foundation. The ever reliable Philip Lahm and Holger Badstuber have also been very good again too. This foundation gives them a platform for the rest of the team to move forward without worrying. Bastian Schweinsteiger's conversion from a show-pony right winger to possibly the best central midfielder in the world has been nothing short of a miracle. He is the man who takes the ball from the defence and then makes the passes to start attacks. Whilst Xavi and Iniesta are rightly lauded at Barcelona I much prefer the dynamic play of Schweinsteiger to their work. The combination of him and the playmaker Mesut Ozil provides a perfect balance in midfield and gives the forwards plenty of chances to shine. So far we have seen Joachim Low's favourites Thomas Muller, Lukas Podolski and Mario Gomez starting every match, and they have all justified this at times. Muller is yet to shine, but does no end of work for the team and still provides chances for Munich team-mate Gomez to try and convert. I am still not sold on Gomez personally, but there is no arguing with his stats so far and he looks likely to score again in this.
Greece should not have qualified for the Quarter Finals, but amazingly beat Russia in their last match to go through in second at the Russians expense. They have been a solid side going all the way back to Otto Rehagel's successful side from Euro 2004. There was a recognition that they do not generally produce wonderful passers or attacking talents, so they reverted to a will not lose mentality and tried to nick goals. This has proven hugely successful for them when you look at the players they field and has led to many imitations from other lesser sides. So far here though their usually reliable defence has given away more chances than I've seen from any other side. The defence looks all at sea thanks to injuries and suspensions meaning changes had to be made, and this can't bode well for this match. The removal of the horrendous Chalkias in goal through injury is probably a blessing, but the replacement will have his work cut out with a marauding German attack. Greece have looked better when behind in their first two matches, but a repeat of their opening efforts in either game and there will be no way back for them. People will try and find reasons for the Greek's to have a chance, but I can't see any hope for them. When you have Giorgos Samaras as your main attacking threat then you won't be going too far.
Back Germany -1 at 2.0 with Coral.
Back Mario Gomez To Score Anytime at 2.0 with StanJames.
Three out of the four Quarter Finals do look like they could become walkovers as the teams on paper look pretty unevenly matched up. Because of the turnaround in Group A resulting in Greece and the Czech Republic progressing you would imagine they would provide little trouble to the might of Germany and Portugal respectively. It's not that the Greek's or the Czech's are awful sides, although both have looked it at times, rather that the amount of chances they give away will surely be punished by the attackers Germany and Portugal possess. The other side of the draw has Spain taking on France and England meeting Italy. This certainly has the feel of four European powers meeting, although all four sides could be said to be playing under their capabilities so far.
I'm going to release this in two parts with slightly longer appraisals of each side than normal.
Czech Republic v Portugal, Thursday 1945
As mentioned this looks like it has every chance of being a bit of a procession in Portugal's favour tomorrow night. I certainly made a mistake in labelling the Czech's the worst team here pre-tournament, especially with Ireland being around, but I still don't think they're much of a side. They did do exceptionally well to regroup after a 4-1 thrashing in their first match against Russia, but they could be in for more of the same in this match. In every match so far they have conceded chances to the opposition and are now about to face a side possessing probably the most potent attacker at the tournament in Cristiano Ronaldo, it will take some performance by the defence to keep him at bay for ninety minutes. The other issue is that Petr Cech has looked suspect on a number of occasions already and it looks like his superb performances at the back end of the season for Chelsea were now the exception rather than the rule. He really has never been the same since his head injury against Reading a few years ago and it's a shame as he could have gone on to become one of the best around in his position. The best players for the Czech's so far have been their wingers Vaclav Pilar and Petr Jiracek. They have both been very busy and have in fact both also scored, fortunate as the main striker is still Milan Baros and he has long since stopped being a top level player. Their best chance is to attack Portugal from wide areas to utilise their best players, but I still don't hold out much hope for them.
Portugal have at times looked like Ronaldo and ten others. This is not entirely surprising when he is the best player on show here and scored sixty goals for Real Madrid last season though. With Portugal still lacking a top level centre forward they are almost forced to put both the creative and scoring burden on Ronaldo's shoulders, thankfully in the last group match he looked as though he would take this on. He was absolutely everywhere against Holland in their comeback from 1-0 down to win 2-1 and qualify for the Quarter Finals, also adding both goals to also leave him hunting the Golden Boot. Throw in the fact he could also make a very strong claim for World Player Of The Year if he leads Portugal and Real Madrid to glory this year and you have a very convincing case for him to keep this level up. The rest of the side barring Nani and probably Helder Postiga are more concentrated on defending. The midfield centre is packed with high energy players who are there to chase and harry the opposition and then loo to give the ball to Ronaldo primarily, or Nani, at the earliest opportunity. The only chance I think the Czech's have is to try and rattle Portugal's centre backs Pepe and Bruno Alves. Both are notorious hot-heads and have received numerous red cards in their careers so could possibly be prone to lapses in judgement if pushed. However comma I still think this should be a fairly easy Portugal win.
Back Portugal at 1.8 with Paddy Power.
Back Cristiano Ronaldo To Score Anytime at 2.25 with Ladbrokes.
Germany v Greece, Friday 1945
My antepost tip for the whole tournament was Germany, and I see no reason to be worried about them so far. They've not blown anyone away yet, but at no point have I been worried they would fail to win a match. It may well be a cliche, but it is nevertheless true, that they are ruthlessly efficient and a real tournament side. Manuel Neuer in goal looks to have put an up and down season at Bayern Munich behind him and is showing why he is so highly though of. The defence has looked absolutely rock solid and any worries about Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng have been proven without foundation. The ever reliable Philip Lahm and Holger Badstuber have also been very good again too. This foundation gives them a platform for the rest of the team to move forward without worrying. Bastian Schweinsteiger's conversion from a show-pony right winger to possibly the best central midfielder in the world has been nothing short of a miracle. He is the man who takes the ball from the defence and then makes the passes to start attacks. Whilst Xavi and Iniesta are rightly lauded at Barcelona I much prefer the dynamic play of Schweinsteiger to their work. The combination of him and the playmaker Mesut Ozil provides a perfect balance in midfield and gives the forwards plenty of chances to shine. So far we have seen Joachim Low's favourites Thomas Muller, Lukas Podolski and Mario Gomez starting every match, and they have all justified this at times. Muller is yet to shine, but does no end of work for the team and still provides chances for Munich team-mate Gomez to try and convert. I am still not sold on Gomez personally, but there is no arguing with his stats so far and he looks likely to score again in this.
Greece should not have qualified for the Quarter Finals, but amazingly beat Russia in their last match to go through in second at the Russians expense. They have been a solid side going all the way back to Otto Rehagel's successful side from Euro 2004. There was a recognition that they do not generally produce wonderful passers or attacking talents, so they reverted to a will not lose mentality and tried to nick goals. This has proven hugely successful for them when you look at the players they field and has led to many imitations from other lesser sides. So far here though their usually reliable defence has given away more chances than I've seen from any other side. The defence looks all at sea thanks to injuries and suspensions meaning changes had to be made, and this can't bode well for this match. The removal of the horrendous Chalkias in goal through injury is probably a blessing, but the replacement will have his work cut out with a marauding German attack. Greece have looked better when behind in their first two matches, but a repeat of their opening efforts in either game and there will be no way back for them. People will try and find reasons for the Greek's to have a chance, but I can't see any hope for them. When you have Giorgos Samaras as your main attacking threat then you won't be going too far.
Back Germany -1 at 2.0 with Coral.
Back Mario Gomez To Score Anytime at 2.0 with StanJames.
Sunday, 17 June 2012
The Matches What Matter Part 2...
The follow up to my Group A and B deciders is now here. As I write the Group B matches are yet to be played, but I was spectacularly wrong about what would happen in the Saturday evening matches, although I don't think I am alone in that!
My pre-tournament prediction that Poland would be the outsider to watch was hugely optimistic in hindsight. I think I overestimated the Borussia Dortmund trio's influence and Robert Lewandowski in particular was not up to scratch after scoring the tournament's opening goal. He looked busy in spells and like he had something about him, but he never hit the levels he has this season in Germany. Russia were installed by many as the new outsider after opening up with a 4-1 win over the Czech Republic, but they lived up to their flaky reputation thereafter. They squandered a lead against Poland to draw 1-1 and then failed to mount a second half comeback and lost to Greece. This put the Greek's through and they were joined by the Czech's, another side I wrongly assessed. I had them as the worst side in the tournament, and I still think they're a poor team, but they made it through.
Onwards and upwards.
Croatia v Spain, Monday 1945
In Group C both these sides have impressed in thrashing the poor Republic of Ireland side in their group. However comma both struggled against Italy at times. The Croatian's greatest strength is their versatility I think. Manager Slaven Bilic is not afraid to change system at any moment if he feels it will better suit the match. They started very poorly against Italy and gave away a lot of chances before Andrea Pirlo scored with a brilliant free-kick. They then regrouped at half time and came out a different side in the second half to equalise and draw 1-1. I personally felt that Luka Modric was much improved and certainly looked a lot sharper than he has done in the rest of the tournament and towards the end of Spurs season. They will hope he stays sharp as his role of chief creator in the side is hugely important to a country that always likes to have a playmaker. The defence can look shaky and Spain will hope to expose this with their intricate passing. I would not be surprised to see Croatia line-up with wing backs for this in an attempt to flood the midfield and cut off Spain's passes early on. Croatia will be aware that Italy will beat Ireland so I envisage them trying to hold out and then going for broke late on if they need to.
Spain themselves have yet to look the all-conquering side of the last four years, but against Ireland their were signs in their 4-0 victory that they still have the ability to do it. The problem they have is that the fulcrum of the side in Xavi and Andres Iniesta have played almost solidly for the entire four years and at times unsurprisingly look shattered. Throw in the huge loss of David Villa being absent and Fernando Torres nothing like the man he was two years ago and it spells a side not in the best shape. All this being said, it is still some team and their is not another side on the planet who can play possession football like they can. This is very useful if the heat persists for the tournament as opposition sides will be haring round in the sun and Spain should be able to then capitalise on the fatigue. Spain need a win to be sure of qualification so I would expect them to look to be level at half time then possibly throw a striker on for Fabregas at half time or the hour mark to try and break through.
Take Draw at Half Time at 2.4 with Bet365.
Italy v Republic of Ireland, Monday 1945
I think at times Italy have been very impressive here, but their natural tendency to sit on a lead has meant they've let both Spain and Croatia back in for two draws so far. They will need to change that approach if they are to go a long way in the tournament I think. Whilst they do have possibly the second best defence behind Germany, it's not saying a lot when you look at some of the horrendous displays some sides have put in defensively. The veterans have also impressed me with Antonio Di Natale looking a threat in his shorter appearances and both Gianluigi Buffon and Andrea Pirlo rolling back the years and putting in some classy displays. In the first half against Croatia Pirlo put on a masterclass of the deep-lying playmaker role and capped it with a goal too. He should really dominate this match too when his competition in the centre of the park is Glenn Whelan and Keith Andrews. Italy need a win and need to score a few too so expect to see a much more attacking display for the duration in this one.
The Republic of Ireland were always unlikely to make an impression in the tournament, but many have been shocked at the inept displays they've turned in. Personally I predicted they would be horrendous and looking at the players they have it really shouldn't be too shocking to see them soundly beat in all three matches. Their spine consists of Shay Given, Richard Dunne and Robbie Keane and they've all seen far better days. They've all been decent Premier League players and in the cases of Keane and Given they've been very impressive at times, but to see these as your star players shows how much the Republic had to do. I don't see how they can make an impression on this Italy side in any area of the pitch and presumably Giovanni Trapattoni knows this too. I would expect no changes, it's not his way, and for them to again hope that a much improved defensive display an keep the Italian's out. It might work until Di Natale enters the fray, but his movement should once again make mugs of the Irish backline.
Back Antonio Di Natale To Score Anytime at 2.38 with Ladbrokes.
England v Ukraine, Tuesday 1945
This match sees the return of England's only genuine star, Wayne Rooney. The defence was the best area of the team in the first match before Theo Walcott stole the show after being introduced as a substitute in the second half against Sweden. Having gone ahead through a frankly outstanding Andy Carroll header, England had fallen 2-1 behind to an Olof Mellberg brace for Sweden. The introduction of Walcott suddenly completely changed the run of play. Every time he got the ball he was off and running at the Swedish defence, stretching the game and ending a period of complete Swedish dominance. He scored the equaliser and set up Danny Welbeck's winner and inevitably this has led to calls for him to start against the Ukraine. I would still have him on the bench myself as his pace can be a fantastic asset when he comes on, but if he starts and doesn't immediately get going he easily becomes a peripheral figure. Let Rooney and Young try to combine and then use Walcott as a game-changing option later on if needs be.
Ukraine were brilliant in turning round their match with Sweden in their opener, but weren't really in it against France in their last match. The introduction of Konoplyanka against Sweden in their 2-1 win certainly improved their performance and he started in a more attacking line-up against France. However, this led to more players in advanced positions and left gaps for France to exploit. England don't have as attack minded approach as France and instead see defence as their strength so the same approach by Ukraine might be the way they look to go again with the knowledge England have less players committed to attacking. I haven't been that impressed with Ukraine overall, Sweden showed against England how capable they are of conceding goals and the France result is probably a closer idea of how they will fare against England. As much as I think home advantage will have them fully motivated, I don't see them beating England.
Back England at 2.25 with BetVictor.
Sweden v France, Tuesday 1945
The teams matches I would imagine a neutral has most enjoyed would probably be Sweden's, and that's not something you'd have expected to say! They have been in front in both games and lost both as well as seeing eight goals scored in total in both matches. They've got Zlatan Ibrahimovic to thank for nearly every good thing they have done attacking wise as he has finally started to turn out performances for his country as he does most weeks in Serie A. He's often actually made his countries team look worse by arrogantly strutting around and not doing very much, but now he is in a withdrawn playmaker role he seems to be thriving. Sadly for him the teams defence has not been good at all and his work has been undone by conceding far too may goals. Daniel Majstorovic never looked great for Celtic against Scottish sides so it isn't a huge surprise to see him struggling against international players, but Olof Mellberg has also looked like his best days are gone and this has been a huge issue for Sweden with no real back-up trusted to come in. Expect goals at both ends again!
France were widely tipped as the tournament kick-off drew nearer by many pundits, but their poor defensive display against England reigned these views in a bit. Of the back four only Mathieu Debuchy the right back really did ok against England with Patrice Evra, Adil Rami and Philippe Mexes all being terrible. People had warned that Rami and Mexes were an accident waiting to happen and with Evra having a dreadful season in Manchester there was always a high chance they would collectively give away chances. This proved true and Evra was dropped for Gael Clichy in the second match against Ukraine. They won this match 2-0 in a rain drenched affair and you would have to expect the manager Laurent Blanc to stick to the team for their final encounter. France know all they need in this is a draw, but taking into account their defence I would probably expect them to find it difficult to simply grind one out. Sweden have nothing to lose by going for France so I would expect them to again score and then that leaves France hoping to at least equal them in goalscoring terms. This shouldn't be too much of a challenge with some of the players their squad contains and they will have to fancy their chances against a Swedish backline that let Andrei Shevchenko in twice.
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.83 with BoyleSports.
My pre-tournament prediction that Poland would be the outsider to watch was hugely optimistic in hindsight. I think I overestimated the Borussia Dortmund trio's influence and Robert Lewandowski in particular was not up to scratch after scoring the tournament's opening goal. He looked busy in spells and like he had something about him, but he never hit the levels he has this season in Germany. Russia were installed by many as the new outsider after opening up with a 4-1 win over the Czech Republic, but they lived up to their flaky reputation thereafter. They squandered a lead against Poland to draw 1-1 and then failed to mount a second half comeback and lost to Greece. This put the Greek's through and they were joined by the Czech's, another side I wrongly assessed. I had them as the worst side in the tournament, and I still think they're a poor team, but they made it through.
Onwards and upwards.
Croatia v Spain, Monday 1945
In Group C both these sides have impressed in thrashing the poor Republic of Ireland side in their group. However comma both struggled against Italy at times. The Croatian's greatest strength is their versatility I think. Manager Slaven Bilic is not afraid to change system at any moment if he feels it will better suit the match. They started very poorly against Italy and gave away a lot of chances before Andrea Pirlo scored with a brilliant free-kick. They then regrouped at half time and came out a different side in the second half to equalise and draw 1-1. I personally felt that Luka Modric was much improved and certainly looked a lot sharper than he has done in the rest of the tournament and towards the end of Spurs season. They will hope he stays sharp as his role of chief creator in the side is hugely important to a country that always likes to have a playmaker. The defence can look shaky and Spain will hope to expose this with their intricate passing. I would not be surprised to see Croatia line-up with wing backs for this in an attempt to flood the midfield and cut off Spain's passes early on. Croatia will be aware that Italy will beat Ireland so I envisage them trying to hold out and then going for broke late on if they need to.
Spain themselves have yet to look the all-conquering side of the last four years, but against Ireland their were signs in their 4-0 victory that they still have the ability to do it. The problem they have is that the fulcrum of the side in Xavi and Andres Iniesta have played almost solidly for the entire four years and at times unsurprisingly look shattered. Throw in the huge loss of David Villa being absent and Fernando Torres nothing like the man he was two years ago and it spells a side not in the best shape. All this being said, it is still some team and their is not another side on the planet who can play possession football like they can. This is very useful if the heat persists for the tournament as opposition sides will be haring round in the sun and Spain should be able to then capitalise on the fatigue. Spain need a win to be sure of qualification so I would expect them to look to be level at half time then possibly throw a striker on for Fabregas at half time or the hour mark to try and break through.
Take Draw at Half Time at 2.4 with Bet365.
Italy v Republic of Ireland, Monday 1945
I think at times Italy have been very impressive here, but their natural tendency to sit on a lead has meant they've let both Spain and Croatia back in for two draws so far. They will need to change that approach if they are to go a long way in the tournament I think. Whilst they do have possibly the second best defence behind Germany, it's not saying a lot when you look at some of the horrendous displays some sides have put in defensively. The veterans have also impressed me with Antonio Di Natale looking a threat in his shorter appearances and both Gianluigi Buffon and Andrea Pirlo rolling back the years and putting in some classy displays. In the first half against Croatia Pirlo put on a masterclass of the deep-lying playmaker role and capped it with a goal too. He should really dominate this match too when his competition in the centre of the park is Glenn Whelan and Keith Andrews. Italy need a win and need to score a few too so expect to see a much more attacking display for the duration in this one.
The Republic of Ireland were always unlikely to make an impression in the tournament, but many have been shocked at the inept displays they've turned in. Personally I predicted they would be horrendous and looking at the players they have it really shouldn't be too shocking to see them soundly beat in all three matches. Their spine consists of Shay Given, Richard Dunne and Robbie Keane and they've all seen far better days. They've all been decent Premier League players and in the cases of Keane and Given they've been very impressive at times, but to see these as your star players shows how much the Republic had to do. I don't see how they can make an impression on this Italy side in any area of the pitch and presumably Giovanni Trapattoni knows this too. I would expect no changes, it's not his way, and for them to again hope that a much improved defensive display an keep the Italian's out. It might work until Di Natale enters the fray, but his movement should once again make mugs of the Irish backline.
Back Antonio Di Natale To Score Anytime at 2.38 with Ladbrokes.
England v Ukraine, Tuesday 1945
This match sees the return of England's only genuine star, Wayne Rooney. The defence was the best area of the team in the first match before Theo Walcott stole the show after being introduced as a substitute in the second half against Sweden. Having gone ahead through a frankly outstanding Andy Carroll header, England had fallen 2-1 behind to an Olof Mellberg brace for Sweden. The introduction of Walcott suddenly completely changed the run of play. Every time he got the ball he was off and running at the Swedish defence, stretching the game and ending a period of complete Swedish dominance. He scored the equaliser and set up Danny Welbeck's winner and inevitably this has led to calls for him to start against the Ukraine. I would still have him on the bench myself as his pace can be a fantastic asset when he comes on, but if he starts and doesn't immediately get going he easily becomes a peripheral figure. Let Rooney and Young try to combine and then use Walcott as a game-changing option later on if needs be.
Ukraine were brilliant in turning round their match with Sweden in their opener, but weren't really in it against France in their last match. The introduction of Konoplyanka against Sweden in their 2-1 win certainly improved their performance and he started in a more attacking line-up against France. However, this led to more players in advanced positions and left gaps for France to exploit. England don't have as attack minded approach as France and instead see defence as their strength so the same approach by Ukraine might be the way they look to go again with the knowledge England have less players committed to attacking. I haven't been that impressed with Ukraine overall, Sweden showed against England how capable they are of conceding goals and the France result is probably a closer idea of how they will fare against England. As much as I think home advantage will have them fully motivated, I don't see them beating England.
Back England at 2.25 with BetVictor.
Sweden v France, Tuesday 1945
The teams matches I would imagine a neutral has most enjoyed would probably be Sweden's, and that's not something you'd have expected to say! They have been in front in both games and lost both as well as seeing eight goals scored in total in both matches. They've got Zlatan Ibrahimovic to thank for nearly every good thing they have done attacking wise as he has finally started to turn out performances for his country as he does most weeks in Serie A. He's often actually made his countries team look worse by arrogantly strutting around and not doing very much, but now he is in a withdrawn playmaker role he seems to be thriving. Sadly for him the teams defence has not been good at all and his work has been undone by conceding far too may goals. Daniel Majstorovic never looked great for Celtic against Scottish sides so it isn't a huge surprise to see him struggling against international players, but Olof Mellberg has also looked like his best days are gone and this has been a huge issue for Sweden with no real back-up trusted to come in. Expect goals at both ends again!
France were widely tipped as the tournament kick-off drew nearer by many pundits, but their poor defensive display against England reigned these views in a bit. Of the back four only Mathieu Debuchy the right back really did ok against England with Patrice Evra, Adil Rami and Philippe Mexes all being terrible. People had warned that Rami and Mexes were an accident waiting to happen and with Evra having a dreadful season in Manchester there was always a high chance they would collectively give away chances. This proved true and Evra was dropped for Gael Clichy in the second match against Ukraine. They won this match 2-0 in a rain drenched affair and you would have to expect the manager Laurent Blanc to stick to the team for their final encounter. France know all they need in this is a draw, but taking into account their defence I would probably expect them to find it difficult to simply grind one out. Sweden have nothing to lose by going for France so I would expect them to again score and then that leaves France hoping to at least equal them in goalscoring terms. This shouldn't be too much of a challenge with some of the players their squad contains and they will have to fancy their chances against a Swedish backline that let Andrei Shevchenko in twice.
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.83 with BoyleSports.
Friday, 15 June 2012
The Matches What Matter...
We are now coming up upon the final matches in each group where things really hot up in most cases with nearly all teams still having hopes of qualifying, however slim they may be. So far I am slightly down overall on the match tips themselves, and I am positively livid about it. I underestimated the Czech Republic and overestimated the Greek's I think as well as doing respectively similar with the Ukraine and Sweden. I never had any of these sides down as potential winners, but in head to head matches I think I was slightly too optimistic about the underdogs chances.
These last matches can be odd ones to predict so it may well be that once teams are released I may change, or add, tips via Twitter. You can follow me @TopTopTips for this purpose. This is because someone like Germany may give the back-up players a run out safe in the knowledge that they have already qualified for the knockout stages.
Poland v Czech Republic, Saturday 1945
A huge match for both sides as the winner takes all. Poland have been underwhelming in the main for those of us that expected good things from them, especially with home advantage. They came back from 1-0 down against Russia to record their second 1-1 draw and leave themselves knowing that only a victory will be good enough in this match. Robert Lewandowski was my tip for an outside bet on Top Goalscorer and he has shown patches of the form that he showed for Borussia Dortmund this season, but not for long enough. In the absence of many goal threats, or another creditable striker, Poland will be hoping he finds his shooting boots in this one. What has been noticeable to me has been how they have raised their game when they have had the loudest backing. This came at the start of the first match and after falling behind against Russia. If they can carry on playing the way they did in the second half of the Russia match then they should have enough to see off a limited Czech side, but any less and they will be out.
The Czech's followed their thrashing by Russia to record a 2-1 win over a poor Greece side. Both goals came inside the first ten minutes thanks to a horrendous start in defence by the Greek's and I would not expect this to be the same against Poland. As Milan Baros is now reaching the final throes of his top level career they are much more reliant on the wide midfielders and full backs for the energy in their play. The aptly named right back Gebre Selassie in particular looks full of running and can often be seen bombing on beyond the midfielders to support the attack. Even though they beat Greece they let them back in the match and it wouldn't have been too unfair on second half performance if Greece had snatched a point. They will need to keep up their bright start for at least an hour to repel a Poland side who will be roared on by a large home backing.
Back Poland at 2.3 on Betfair.
Russia v Greece, Saturday 1945
Russia head into this match knowing that they have qualified for the knockout stages already. This is a bit of a tough one now to predict without knowledge of the team and how they will line-up. The good thing is that we do know Russia have some good attacking players that should now get a run out and a chance to stake a claim for a place in the starting line-up later on. Dick Advocaat has started with Aleksandr Kerzakhov as his main striker in the first two matches, and the Zenit man has not been getting the rub of the green really. He is making the runs, playing people in and doing all the graft, but he is not scoring. This does leave room for either Roman Pavluychenko or Pavel Pogrebnyak to come in and show the manager they can do everything he can do, but with goals. You also have Marat Izmailov who was long tipped to become the next big thing with possibly his final chance on a grand stage ready to play in a forward role as Arshavin and Dzagoev have so far with distinction. The reserve defenders are not as good so we may well see some goals in this match.
Greece have been, with the exception of the woeful Rep. of Ireland, the worst team in the tournament. Their strength in recent years has been a rock solid backline and midfield keeping clean sheets and giving the forwards a chance to nick victories. So far here the defence has been shambolic. The goalkeeper Chalkias was every bit as rubbish as many will remember him from his short spell at Portsmouth and with injuries and suspensions robbing them of two of their first choice back four against the Czech's they were all at sea. Throw in disappointing attackers and the ageing Karagounis in his third Euro's playing like he was stuck in treacle and you have a recipe for disaster. If Russia throw their back-up defenders in then the Greek's may well get some chances to at least add to their goals for tally, but with Russia's wealth of attacking talent they will go home without a win.
Back Russia at 1.75 with Paddy Power.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0 with William Hill.
Denmark v Germany, Sunday 1945
As previously mentioned Germany have qualified top of their group provided they avoid defeat to Denmark. The Dane's on the other hand will be looking to better Portugal's result if they are to progress from the group. Thanks to a shock win over the disappointing Dutch in their opener Denmark could well be the shock side in the knockout stages if they can conjure up another performance. I had mentioned before the tournament that I did not think they were being given enough credit by the bookies and it seems I was right about that. They really should have held on for a draw against Portugal, but succumbed to a late goal by Silvestre Varela to lose 3-2 having scored twice through Nicklas Bendtner. The Arsenal man could never be accused of underselling his abilities, and for this he gets an awful lot of stick from fans and the press who label him as rubbish in reaction. The truth lies somewhere in between as he has shown here that as a focal point of a side he can perform very well and Denmark will need more goals from him as I don't see how they can keep Germany out for ninety minutes.
The Germans may well bring in some of their reserve players for this match, at least from the bench. Marco Reus has had a fantastic season at Borussia Monchengladbach rewarded with a move to champions Borussia Dortmund and is a brilliant forward who scores plenty of goals. I've come to appreciate the role Thomas Muller plays for the national side after being massively underwhelmed by him domestically this season, but I would like to see someone like Reus or Andrea Schurlle let off the leash. Similarly I would like to see Miroslav Klose allowed a chance to start a match. I am of the opinion that whilst he is certainly a good striker, Mario Gomez is slightly over-rated by those who have not seen much German football and simply look at his goal statistics. He is a great goalscorer, but offers little else to a side. This is fine for most matches, but can lead to him being a disappointment when playing against the best defences. Klose is a man for a big match and I would not be surprised to see him given a run in this to keep him warmed up just in case he is needed later in the competition.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9 with StanJames.
Portugal v Holland, Sunday 1945
Another huge match with Holland knowing they must win to stand any chance of progression. Portugal recovered from an opening game loss to Germany to win 3-2 with a late goal against Denmark last time out. Cristiano Ronaldo was again pretty wasteful in front of goal and reacted angrily to the 'Messi, Messi' chants by the Danish fans after the match. He definitely struggles to impose himself on matches for the national side as he does for Real Madrid, but this is hardly surprising given the difference in quality of his team-mates in both cases. The Portugese are basically set up to defend with eight players, and to let Ronaldo, Nani and Postiga forage for themselves up front. This is fine when Postiga is having one of his rare good days, but when he isn't the whole thing tends to get very scrappy. They need to better Denmark's result really so will have to repel a rampant Holland and try and create for themselves. I personally think they may find this very difficult.
Holland have been the biggest disappointment of the tournament so far and it is largely of their own making. They have always had defenders that were not up to the levels of their forwards, but in this tournament they are playing like strangers at times. This has forced manager Bert Van Maarwijk to start with both Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong in the centre of midfield and this in turn has led to the team almost splitting in two with six staying back and four attacking. We then get to the forwards, and only Wesley Sneijder has really shown anything like what he is capable of so far. Robin Van Persie did score eventually against Germany and Holland will be hoping this now opens the floodgates with them needing a large victory to get through. I would expect to see Van Bommel replaced by Rafael Van Der Vaart for this as happened in the Germany second half as he looks raring to go and was making things happen where Arjen Robben and Ibrahim Afellay have completely failed. Robben has been at his selfish worst so far and Afellay looks every inch a player who hasn't played in over a year with any regularity. This all being said I still think the Dutch are capable of a performance, but I think this could be end to end stuff.
Back Holland at 2.62 with ToteSport.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.2 with BoyleSports.
These last matches can be odd ones to predict so it may well be that once teams are released I may change, or add, tips via Twitter. You can follow me @TopTopTips for this purpose. This is because someone like Germany may give the back-up players a run out safe in the knowledge that they have already qualified for the knockout stages.
Poland v Czech Republic, Saturday 1945
A huge match for both sides as the winner takes all. Poland have been underwhelming in the main for those of us that expected good things from them, especially with home advantage. They came back from 1-0 down against Russia to record their second 1-1 draw and leave themselves knowing that only a victory will be good enough in this match. Robert Lewandowski was my tip for an outside bet on Top Goalscorer and he has shown patches of the form that he showed for Borussia Dortmund this season, but not for long enough. In the absence of many goal threats, or another creditable striker, Poland will be hoping he finds his shooting boots in this one. What has been noticeable to me has been how they have raised their game when they have had the loudest backing. This came at the start of the first match and after falling behind against Russia. If they can carry on playing the way they did in the second half of the Russia match then they should have enough to see off a limited Czech side, but any less and they will be out.
The Czech's followed their thrashing by Russia to record a 2-1 win over a poor Greece side. Both goals came inside the first ten minutes thanks to a horrendous start in defence by the Greek's and I would not expect this to be the same against Poland. As Milan Baros is now reaching the final throes of his top level career they are much more reliant on the wide midfielders and full backs for the energy in their play. The aptly named right back Gebre Selassie in particular looks full of running and can often be seen bombing on beyond the midfielders to support the attack. Even though they beat Greece they let them back in the match and it wouldn't have been too unfair on second half performance if Greece had snatched a point. They will need to keep up their bright start for at least an hour to repel a Poland side who will be roared on by a large home backing.
Back Poland at 2.3 on Betfair.
Russia v Greece, Saturday 1945
Russia head into this match knowing that they have qualified for the knockout stages already. This is a bit of a tough one now to predict without knowledge of the team and how they will line-up. The good thing is that we do know Russia have some good attacking players that should now get a run out and a chance to stake a claim for a place in the starting line-up later on. Dick Advocaat has started with Aleksandr Kerzakhov as his main striker in the first two matches, and the Zenit man has not been getting the rub of the green really. He is making the runs, playing people in and doing all the graft, but he is not scoring. This does leave room for either Roman Pavluychenko or Pavel Pogrebnyak to come in and show the manager they can do everything he can do, but with goals. You also have Marat Izmailov who was long tipped to become the next big thing with possibly his final chance on a grand stage ready to play in a forward role as Arshavin and Dzagoev have so far with distinction. The reserve defenders are not as good so we may well see some goals in this match.
Greece have been, with the exception of the woeful Rep. of Ireland, the worst team in the tournament. Their strength in recent years has been a rock solid backline and midfield keeping clean sheets and giving the forwards a chance to nick victories. So far here the defence has been shambolic. The goalkeeper Chalkias was every bit as rubbish as many will remember him from his short spell at Portsmouth and with injuries and suspensions robbing them of two of their first choice back four against the Czech's they were all at sea. Throw in disappointing attackers and the ageing Karagounis in his third Euro's playing like he was stuck in treacle and you have a recipe for disaster. If Russia throw their back-up defenders in then the Greek's may well get some chances to at least add to their goals for tally, but with Russia's wealth of attacking talent they will go home without a win.
Back Russia at 1.75 with Paddy Power.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0 with William Hill.
Denmark v Germany, Sunday 1945
As previously mentioned Germany have qualified top of their group provided they avoid defeat to Denmark. The Dane's on the other hand will be looking to better Portugal's result if they are to progress from the group. Thanks to a shock win over the disappointing Dutch in their opener Denmark could well be the shock side in the knockout stages if they can conjure up another performance. I had mentioned before the tournament that I did not think they were being given enough credit by the bookies and it seems I was right about that. They really should have held on for a draw against Portugal, but succumbed to a late goal by Silvestre Varela to lose 3-2 having scored twice through Nicklas Bendtner. The Arsenal man could never be accused of underselling his abilities, and for this he gets an awful lot of stick from fans and the press who label him as rubbish in reaction. The truth lies somewhere in between as he has shown here that as a focal point of a side he can perform very well and Denmark will need more goals from him as I don't see how they can keep Germany out for ninety minutes.
The Germans may well bring in some of their reserve players for this match, at least from the bench. Marco Reus has had a fantastic season at Borussia Monchengladbach rewarded with a move to champions Borussia Dortmund and is a brilliant forward who scores plenty of goals. I've come to appreciate the role Thomas Muller plays for the national side after being massively underwhelmed by him domestically this season, but I would like to see someone like Reus or Andrea Schurlle let off the leash. Similarly I would like to see Miroslav Klose allowed a chance to start a match. I am of the opinion that whilst he is certainly a good striker, Mario Gomez is slightly over-rated by those who have not seen much German football and simply look at his goal statistics. He is a great goalscorer, but offers little else to a side. This is fine for most matches, but can lead to him being a disappointment when playing against the best defences. Klose is a man for a big match and I would not be surprised to see him given a run in this to keep him warmed up just in case he is needed later in the competition.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9 with StanJames.
Portugal v Holland, Sunday 1945
Another huge match with Holland knowing they must win to stand any chance of progression. Portugal recovered from an opening game loss to Germany to win 3-2 with a late goal against Denmark last time out. Cristiano Ronaldo was again pretty wasteful in front of goal and reacted angrily to the 'Messi, Messi' chants by the Danish fans after the match. He definitely struggles to impose himself on matches for the national side as he does for Real Madrid, but this is hardly surprising given the difference in quality of his team-mates in both cases. The Portugese are basically set up to defend with eight players, and to let Ronaldo, Nani and Postiga forage for themselves up front. This is fine when Postiga is having one of his rare good days, but when he isn't the whole thing tends to get very scrappy. They need to better Denmark's result really so will have to repel a rampant Holland and try and create for themselves. I personally think they may find this very difficult.
Holland have been the biggest disappointment of the tournament so far and it is largely of their own making. They have always had defenders that were not up to the levels of their forwards, but in this tournament they are playing like strangers at times. This has forced manager Bert Van Maarwijk to start with both Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong in the centre of midfield and this in turn has led to the team almost splitting in two with six staying back and four attacking. We then get to the forwards, and only Wesley Sneijder has really shown anything like what he is capable of so far. Robin Van Persie did score eventually against Germany and Holland will be hoping this now opens the floodgates with them needing a large victory to get through. I would expect to see Van Bommel replaced by Rafael Van Der Vaart for this as happened in the Germany second half as he looks raring to go and was making things happen where Arjen Robben and Ibrahim Afellay have completely failed. Robben has been at his selfish worst so far and Afellay looks every inch a player who hasn't played in over a year with any regularity. This all being said I still think the Dutch are capable of a performance, but I think this could be end to end stuff.
Back Holland at 2.62 with ToteSport.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.2 with BoyleSports.
Wednesday, 13 June 2012
Hoping For Better...
So far thanks to a dud day on Monday we are down overall for the tournament so far. There's a few antepost bets still in play, I would say that only the Czech and Ukraine To Finish Bottom bets are dead in the water. Hopefully now everyone has played I will be able to make a better assessment of everyone's chances, although I still seemed to hugely underappreciate how poor Greece's defence was!
Italy v Croatia, Thursday 1700
This ought to be an interesting match up with both sides looking impressive in parts in their first matches. Italy went ahead and ended up drawing 1-1 with current European and World champions Spain. There had been pre-tournament fears that the new match-fixing charges being laid in Italy would affect the squad, but they seemed perfectly fine to me. Well, apart from Mario Balotelli anyway. The Man City striker certainly has ability, and his movement and hold-up play at times was exemplary, but his mental state was again called into question. He had a tantrum when a nothing incident failed to result in a penalty for him and then got booked for a late challenge before doing nothing at all with Italy's best chance before their goal. I would probably expect him to start most matches before making way for Antonio Di Natale. This would be presumably as Di Natale's finishing is a huge asset, but with his dodgy knees he is more effective as the game wears on in the heat and he can expose any defensive lapses. I actually think it's brilliant tactics if that is the thinking.
Croatia showed Ireland up by beating them 3-1 in their first encounter of the tournament. However, Ireland could consider themselves a tad unlucky as many decisions went against them, including what looked a certain penalty for Robbie Keane. Croatia's biggest positive for me is the fact manager Slaven Bilic is open to changing formation at any time, and his players all buy into this. He was expected to stick with Eduardo in attack as he has done for the past 3 years, but sprung something of a surprise by naming in-form Everton striker Nikola Jelavic against Ireland. I think this was the right decision as he offers a physical threat that Eduardo does not. In saying this was the right decision though Luka Modric looked as tired as he did at the end of the season for Spurs and might have been better had he been rested more in the build-up. He is fundamental to the way the Croats play and I don't see how he is going to regain his form without an extended rest. I think this could be a fairly stale match, but I have to fancy Italy to win.
Back Italy at 2.3 with BoyleSports.
Spain v Republic of Ireland, Thursday 1945
As mentioned both these sides probably did not get off to the starts they wanted. Spain looked like they will have problems breaking teams down as I thought they might before the tournament began. They decided to start the match without a recognised striker, Fabregas was often the most advanced player and he did net their goal. Fernando Torres was brought on and had two excellent chances which he again managed to make a mess of. His problems in front of goal have not gone away and personally I would not be bringing him on again when there are other options. All this being said they should have no problems against an Ireland side soundly beaten by Croatia. They should find gaps in a backline containing Richard Dunne and Sean St Ledger much easier than against Italy and I would expect Ireland to come away with nothing again.
As I have said I feel Ireland are going to struggle again in this match. That might sound obvious, and it probably is, but there are many saying if Ireland can refind their resoluteness from qualifying then they're not out yet. The problem is that they still have to play two better sides than they have faced, and the movement of Spain will be a nightmare for such a static side. Giovanni Trapattoni should be praised for getting his side to Euro 2012, but all the fears of how a side with Glenn Whelan and Keith Andrews in central midfield can compete look very real now. They were torn apart at times by Croatia when they started pinging it around, and Spain will surely have noticed this and will attempt the same. Ireland will probably avoid a thrashing, but I fail to see them getting anything from this.
Back Spain To Win To Nil at 1.9 with ToteSport.
Ukraine v France, Friday 1700
The joint hosts face the group favourites on Thursday having had mixed results in their first matches. France started with a 1-1 draw with England that exposed their limitations and made a mockery of predictions of them as outsiders in my opinion. I had read various articles from the French media noting that the refusal by Laurent Blanc to change from Adil Rami and Philippe Mexes in the centre would be the reason they don't win anything and I would have to go along with that. They look completely alien to each other at times, which is possibly the worst thing that can be said of a defensive partnership. Throw in Patrice Evra at left back and you have an accident constantly waiting to happen. The other worry was that Karim Benzema looked as listless as he did before Mourinho turned up at Real Madrid. To take advantage of the options they have in attack they will need a much improved performance from him if he is to be of use to his team. Laurent Blanc does have options like Hatem Ben Arfa and Olivier Giroud to bring in, and I think he may have to at some point as France did not impress me at all.
The Ukraine needed a blast from the past performance from striker Andrei Shevchenko to come back from 1-0 down to beat Sweden 2-1. They had a brilliant twenty minute spell in the second half that these goals came in where everything clicked for them. However comma the other seventy minutes showed how limited they probably are. The winger Yarmolenko looks a good prospect, and Tymoschuk is a calming influence as is Voronin, but the rest of the side look very average. Voronin and Shevchenko also looked absolutely shattered when they were removed and the whole team collapsed in their absence. Sweden were gifted numerous chances at the end and a better side would have punished Ukraine for this. They will again give away chances I would think and I can see France doing the same if Konoplyanka also starts providing pace from both wings.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.5 with William Hill.
England v Sweden, Friday 1945
This match could well be a fairly even match up with both sides playing similar systems. It looks as though Hodgson has now decided that defence first is England's best hope going forward, and I would agree to an extent. They kept a good France attack at bay for most of the first match and scored from a set-piece to earn a draw. Early on we also saw that Ashley Young was again England's most potent attacking force with his pace causing problems and setting up a chance that James Milner might have scored. The problems came after they went ahead and seemed to revert to type by inviting France on to them for the rest of the match. Young himself badly faded too and England looked hopeless with the ball and completely out of ideas in the second half. It looks to me that half the team is set up fine, the defence, but the attack is going to really struggle to break sides down, even with Wayne Rooney back as their are so few numbers in advanced positions. Relying on set-pieces and breaks may work, but it's a hell of a risky strategy.
Sweden should have beaten Ukraine in their opening match, or at the very least rescued a draw after all the chances they had late on. After the match apparently Zlatan Ibrahimovic dragged his teammates back out for a proper warm down and the manager has also labelled them 'cowards'. In previous years Ibrahimovic has been a disappointment for his country, but he was the best player on the pitch in their opener. He was holding the ball up brilliantly, directing play, laying on chances and scored the Swede's goal. Whilst they have previously looked to him and found nothing, they now seem to be completely reliant on his inspiration. The flat midfield four were nothing special, but did the job in the same way England's did. The problem Sweden may have is that if Ashley Young or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are given licence to go at Sweden's defence they might find plenty of gaps.
Back England at 2.18 on Betfair.
Also a small play on England 1-0 at 7.0 with William Hill.
Italy v Croatia, Thursday 1700
This ought to be an interesting match up with both sides looking impressive in parts in their first matches. Italy went ahead and ended up drawing 1-1 with current European and World champions Spain. There had been pre-tournament fears that the new match-fixing charges being laid in Italy would affect the squad, but they seemed perfectly fine to me. Well, apart from Mario Balotelli anyway. The Man City striker certainly has ability, and his movement and hold-up play at times was exemplary, but his mental state was again called into question. He had a tantrum when a nothing incident failed to result in a penalty for him and then got booked for a late challenge before doing nothing at all with Italy's best chance before their goal. I would probably expect him to start most matches before making way for Antonio Di Natale. This would be presumably as Di Natale's finishing is a huge asset, but with his dodgy knees he is more effective as the game wears on in the heat and he can expose any defensive lapses. I actually think it's brilliant tactics if that is the thinking.
Croatia showed Ireland up by beating them 3-1 in their first encounter of the tournament. However, Ireland could consider themselves a tad unlucky as many decisions went against them, including what looked a certain penalty for Robbie Keane. Croatia's biggest positive for me is the fact manager Slaven Bilic is open to changing formation at any time, and his players all buy into this. He was expected to stick with Eduardo in attack as he has done for the past 3 years, but sprung something of a surprise by naming in-form Everton striker Nikola Jelavic against Ireland. I think this was the right decision as he offers a physical threat that Eduardo does not. In saying this was the right decision though Luka Modric looked as tired as he did at the end of the season for Spurs and might have been better had he been rested more in the build-up. He is fundamental to the way the Croats play and I don't see how he is going to regain his form without an extended rest. I think this could be a fairly stale match, but I have to fancy Italy to win.
Back Italy at 2.3 with BoyleSports.
Spain v Republic of Ireland, Thursday 1945
As mentioned both these sides probably did not get off to the starts they wanted. Spain looked like they will have problems breaking teams down as I thought they might before the tournament began. They decided to start the match without a recognised striker, Fabregas was often the most advanced player and he did net their goal. Fernando Torres was brought on and had two excellent chances which he again managed to make a mess of. His problems in front of goal have not gone away and personally I would not be bringing him on again when there are other options. All this being said they should have no problems against an Ireland side soundly beaten by Croatia. They should find gaps in a backline containing Richard Dunne and Sean St Ledger much easier than against Italy and I would expect Ireland to come away with nothing again.
As I have said I feel Ireland are going to struggle again in this match. That might sound obvious, and it probably is, but there are many saying if Ireland can refind their resoluteness from qualifying then they're not out yet. The problem is that they still have to play two better sides than they have faced, and the movement of Spain will be a nightmare for such a static side. Giovanni Trapattoni should be praised for getting his side to Euro 2012, but all the fears of how a side with Glenn Whelan and Keith Andrews in central midfield can compete look very real now. They were torn apart at times by Croatia when they started pinging it around, and Spain will surely have noticed this and will attempt the same. Ireland will probably avoid a thrashing, but I fail to see them getting anything from this.
Back Spain To Win To Nil at 1.9 with ToteSport.
Ukraine v France, Friday 1700
The joint hosts face the group favourites on Thursday having had mixed results in their first matches. France started with a 1-1 draw with England that exposed their limitations and made a mockery of predictions of them as outsiders in my opinion. I had read various articles from the French media noting that the refusal by Laurent Blanc to change from Adil Rami and Philippe Mexes in the centre would be the reason they don't win anything and I would have to go along with that. They look completely alien to each other at times, which is possibly the worst thing that can be said of a defensive partnership. Throw in Patrice Evra at left back and you have an accident constantly waiting to happen. The other worry was that Karim Benzema looked as listless as he did before Mourinho turned up at Real Madrid. To take advantage of the options they have in attack they will need a much improved performance from him if he is to be of use to his team. Laurent Blanc does have options like Hatem Ben Arfa and Olivier Giroud to bring in, and I think he may have to at some point as France did not impress me at all.
The Ukraine needed a blast from the past performance from striker Andrei Shevchenko to come back from 1-0 down to beat Sweden 2-1. They had a brilliant twenty minute spell in the second half that these goals came in where everything clicked for them. However comma the other seventy minutes showed how limited they probably are. The winger Yarmolenko looks a good prospect, and Tymoschuk is a calming influence as is Voronin, but the rest of the side look very average. Voronin and Shevchenko also looked absolutely shattered when they were removed and the whole team collapsed in their absence. Sweden were gifted numerous chances at the end and a better side would have punished Ukraine for this. They will again give away chances I would think and I can see France doing the same if Konoplyanka also starts providing pace from both wings.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.5 with William Hill.
England v Sweden, Friday 1945
This match could well be a fairly even match up with both sides playing similar systems. It looks as though Hodgson has now decided that defence first is England's best hope going forward, and I would agree to an extent. They kept a good France attack at bay for most of the first match and scored from a set-piece to earn a draw. Early on we also saw that Ashley Young was again England's most potent attacking force with his pace causing problems and setting up a chance that James Milner might have scored. The problems came after they went ahead and seemed to revert to type by inviting France on to them for the rest of the match. Young himself badly faded too and England looked hopeless with the ball and completely out of ideas in the second half. It looks to me that half the team is set up fine, the defence, but the attack is going to really struggle to break sides down, even with Wayne Rooney back as their are so few numbers in advanced positions. Relying on set-pieces and breaks may work, but it's a hell of a risky strategy.
Sweden should have beaten Ukraine in their opening match, or at the very least rescued a draw after all the chances they had late on. After the match apparently Zlatan Ibrahimovic dragged his teammates back out for a proper warm down and the manager has also labelled them 'cowards'. In previous years Ibrahimovic has been a disappointment for his country, but he was the best player on the pitch in their opener. He was holding the ball up brilliantly, directing play, laying on chances and scored the Swede's goal. Whilst they have previously looked to him and found nothing, they now seem to be completely reliant on his inspiration. The flat midfield four were nothing special, but did the job in the same way England's did. The problem Sweden may have is that if Ashley Young or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain are given licence to go at Sweden's defence they might find plenty of gaps.
Back England at 2.18 on Betfair.
Also a small play on England 1-0 at 7.0 with William Hill.
Tuesday, 12 June 2012
On We Go...
Having gone the first three days in profit, sadly yesterday ruined all that with two losses. We have now seen every team in action and hopefully that means that prediction will get a bit easier, especially seeing as we also know that some teams will have to go for the jugular or face elimination. For what it's worth I have been most disappointed with Spain, Holland and France so far. All of them looked tired already to me, and France's defence looked in huge trouble for spells against an England side that really should not have been much of a threat. Russian and Italy looked good to me. Russia obviously played a poor Czech side, but they dismantled them once they went ahead, and Italy held out strongly against Spain and looked incredibly solid in defence.
Greece v Czech Republic, Tuesday 1700
In their first matches both these sides failed to impress me. In saying that, Greece did manage to come back with ten men from 1-0 behind to joint hosts Poland and were a missed penalty away from winning. They succeeded in dragging Poland down to their level and making it a scrappy game with few prolonged passages of play. Had Poland simply stuck to the way they were playing for the first twenty minutes they should have overran the Greeks. If you look at Greece's record for the past two years you will not see many teams winning against them, and it is because of this ability to make teams stop playing their own game that should receive a lot of the credit. The problem they have is that they lack any skilful players to take the game to the opposition, but they will fancy their chances against a poor Czech side.
The Czech's were thrashed 4-1 in their first game against Russia to somewhat back up my assertion that they could arguably be seen as the worst side here. They started off ok, but once the Russians went ahead they were absolutely overrun. If you look at the Czech team there really isn't anything there to worry the other sides in their group. Petr Cech in goal has finished the season strongly, but he's certainly not the player he was 3 years ago and is much more prone to errors of judgement. Similarly Milan Baros seems to still be the first choice striker and he is now surplus to requirements at Galatasaray having been displaced by Johan Elmander. The rest of the side is made up of players who many, including myself, will know little about as they have made little or no impression at the top level of the sport. I absolutely fail to see why Greece are rank outsiders in this.
Back Greece Draw No Bet at 2.3 with William Hill.
Poland v Russia, Tuesday 1945
Poland have another chance to live up to pre-tournament billing as a side to watch against Russia tonight. As mentioned above they started off well enough against Greece, with Robert Lewandowski in particular looking lively and putting them ahead. The Poles were attacking quickly and were getting plenty of crosses into the box towards Lewandowski, but they seemed to relax far too much once they were ahead. This let the Greeks back into the match and I would assume that the manager will not be allowing such a slacking off again in this one. The suspension of goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny may actually be a blessing in disguise for Poland too. Whilst I am a believer that confidence is one of the most important attributes for a goalkeeper to have, the Arsenal player seems too confident and his headstrong decision making cost his team a goal and a penalty in the Greece match. I think they can still get it together yet and progress from the group.
Russia are now being talked about as the outside bet for the whole tournament after recording the largest victory so far by beating the Czech's 4-1. Young playmaker Alan Dzagoev had also been mentioned as one to watch and his two goals certainly overshadowed the old master Andrei Arshavin's display. They looked every bit the team they are capable of being once they were ahead, but they do look nervous whilst on level terms and the longer that goes on the more I would have to back the opposition. They are now naturally favourites to win this match, and I think the price is actually fairly decent considering the Poland performance in the first match. They will be aware that a draw wont be the worst result in the world, as will Poland and I think we could see a low scoring match here with both sides not needing to take any huge risks.
Back Under 2.0 Goals at 2.3 with Bet365.
Denmark v Portugal, Wednesday 1700
The early kick off on Wednesday has a rematch between two members of the same Euro 2012 qualifying group. Denmark qualified top of the group and won one and drew the other against the Portugese. Denmark also currently lie joint top of this group as they managed to beat a highly fancied Holland side in the first match by a single goal to nil. They certainly rode their luck at times in the match though with Holland having twenty eight shots and somehow failing to convert a single one. That being said Denmark's goalkeeper Stephan Andersen looked very assured between the sticks and will have gained huge confidence from keeping out a side as good as Holland are for ninety minutes. The two players tipped to be their best before the tournament were Niklas Bendtner and Cristian Eriksen, but both only sporadically were involved on Saturday. I would expect them to have much more to do against a Portugal side who were very disappointing in their opener.
On to Portugal and I could not see pre-tournament why many people had them as an outside bet when there can be arguments for every side in their group being able to beat them. Against Germany they might well have held out until late on before going down 1-0, but in truth they were never in the match. It was only a poor performance from Germany's attackers that made it stay level for so long, they had all the possession and simply failed to make it count. A lot of the views I have seen saying Portugal have a chance are relying on Cristiano Ronaldo turning on his Real Madrid form into the tournament. Once again though he looked an isolated figure as the rest of the side are not anywhere near his level, and besides Nani possess no flair or goalscoring threat. This can make it easy for the opposition in a sense as if they can stop those two then it is highly unlikely Portugal will do well. Denmark managed this in both qualifying matches, so I think they have to be considered for this match.
Back Denmark and the Draw Double Chance at 1.83 with BODOG.
Holland v Germany, Wednesday 1945
The biggest match this week is probably the grudge match between Holland and Germany. Holland now have the added pressure of knowing they cannot afford to lose this match if they want to progress having lost the first match to Denmark. They wont be too worried about creating chances, but they should be worried about the conversion of those chances. The decision to start Ibrahim Afellay looked the wrong choice as he looked every inch the player that has missed most of the season through injury. Wesley Sneijder has also not been brilliant at club level, but he was the best performer in the Denmark match, laying on chance after chance for his team-mates. The defence also looked brittle at times, and that will have to be a concern, especially if Germany's attackers hit their stride. I really think it is going to be very hard for Holland to come back from this.
Germany did not really need to be at their best to beat Portugal, which was fortunate as their attackers were not firing at all. Mario Gomez in particular was very wasteful and paper talk in Germany has him dropped and Miroslav Klose being restored to the starting line-up. Personally I'm not sold on Gomez at all and I think Klose is a much better fit for the type of game Germany play. I would also like to see Thomas Muller dropped after a poor season and one from Mario Gotze or Marco Reus given a chance, but in an evenly matched game like this I think the fact Muller has played with the team more will go in his favour. I also think that whilst Germany will be keen to get a win and all but qualify for the knockout stages, they will also be aware that a draw would hardly be the end of the world. I think they'll be keeping it fairly tight and looking to possibly sneak a goal late on if Holland decide they want a win more than risking a point.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with ToteSport.
Greece v Czech Republic, Tuesday 1700
In their first matches both these sides failed to impress me. In saying that, Greece did manage to come back with ten men from 1-0 behind to joint hosts Poland and were a missed penalty away from winning. They succeeded in dragging Poland down to their level and making it a scrappy game with few prolonged passages of play. Had Poland simply stuck to the way they were playing for the first twenty minutes they should have overran the Greeks. If you look at Greece's record for the past two years you will not see many teams winning against them, and it is because of this ability to make teams stop playing their own game that should receive a lot of the credit. The problem they have is that they lack any skilful players to take the game to the opposition, but they will fancy their chances against a poor Czech side.
The Czech's were thrashed 4-1 in their first game against Russia to somewhat back up my assertion that they could arguably be seen as the worst side here. They started off ok, but once the Russians went ahead they were absolutely overrun. If you look at the Czech team there really isn't anything there to worry the other sides in their group. Petr Cech in goal has finished the season strongly, but he's certainly not the player he was 3 years ago and is much more prone to errors of judgement. Similarly Milan Baros seems to still be the first choice striker and he is now surplus to requirements at Galatasaray having been displaced by Johan Elmander. The rest of the side is made up of players who many, including myself, will know little about as they have made little or no impression at the top level of the sport. I absolutely fail to see why Greece are rank outsiders in this.
Back Greece Draw No Bet at 2.3 with William Hill.
Poland v Russia, Tuesday 1945
Poland have another chance to live up to pre-tournament billing as a side to watch against Russia tonight. As mentioned above they started off well enough against Greece, with Robert Lewandowski in particular looking lively and putting them ahead. The Poles were attacking quickly and were getting plenty of crosses into the box towards Lewandowski, but they seemed to relax far too much once they were ahead. This let the Greeks back into the match and I would assume that the manager will not be allowing such a slacking off again in this one. The suspension of goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny may actually be a blessing in disguise for Poland too. Whilst I am a believer that confidence is one of the most important attributes for a goalkeeper to have, the Arsenal player seems too confident and his headstrong decision making cost his team a goal and a penalty in the Greece match. I think they can still get it together yet and progress from the group.
Russia are now being talked about as the outside bet for the whole tournament after recording the largest victory so far by beating the Czech's 4-1. Young playmaker Alan Dzagoev had also been mentioned as one to watch and his two goals certainly overshadowed the old master Andrei Arshavin's display. They looked every bit the team they are capable of being once they were ahead, but they do look nervous whilst on level terms and the longer that goes on the more I would have to back the opposition. They are now naturally favourites to win this match, and I think the price is actually fairly decent considering the Poland performance in the first match. They will be aware that a draw wont be the worst result in the world, as will Poland and I think we could see a low scoring match here with both sides not needing to take any huge risks.
Back Under 2.0 Goals at 2.3 with Bet365.
Denmark v Portugal, Wednesday 1700
The early kick off on Wednesday has a rematch between two members of the same Euro 2012 qualifying group. Denmark qualified top of the group and won one and drew the other against the Portugese. Denmark also currently lie joint top of this group as they managed to beat a highly fancied Holland side in the first match by a single goal to nil. They certainly rode their luck at times in the match though with Holland having twenty eight shots and somehow failing to convert a single one. That being said Denmark's goalkeeper Stephan Andersen looked very assured between the sticks and will have gained huge confidence from keeping out a side as good as Holland are for ninety minutes. The two players tipped to be their best before the tournament were Niklas Bendtner and Cristian Eriksen, but both only sporadically were involved on Saturday. I would expect them to have much more to do against a Portugal side who were very disappointing in their opener.
On to Portugal and I could not see pre-tournament why many people had them as an outside bet when there can be arguments for every side in their group being able to beat them. Against Germany they might well have held out until late on before going down 1-0, but in truth they were never in the match. It was only a poor performance from Germany's attackers that made it stay level for so long, they had all the possession and simply failed to make it count. A lot of the views I have seen saying Portugal have a chance are relying on Cristiano Ronaldo turning on his Real Madrid form into the tournament. Once again though he looked an isolated figure as the rest of the side are not anywhere near his level, and besides Nani possess no flair or goalscoring threat. This can make it easy for the opposition in a sense as if they can stop those two then it is highly unlikely Portugal will do well. Denmark managed this in both qualifying matches, so I think they have to be considered for this match.
Back Denmark and the Draw Double Chance at 1.83 with BODOG.
Holland v Germany, Wednesday 1945
The biggest match this week is probably the grudge match between Holland and Germany. Holland now have the added pressure of knowing they cannot afford to lose this match if they want to progress having lost the first match to Denmark. They wont be too worried about creating chances, but they should be worried about the conversion of those chances. The decision to start Ibrahim Afellay looked the wrong choice as he looked every inch the player that has missed most of the season through injury. Wesley Sneijder has also not been brilliant at club level, but he was the best performer in the Denmark match, laying on chance after chance for his team-mates. The defence also looked brittle at times, and that will have to be a concern, especially if Germany's attackers hit their stride. I really think it is going to be very hard for Holland to come back from this.
Germany did not really need to be at their best to beat Portugal, which was fortunate as their attackers were not firing at all. Mario Gomez in particular was very wasteful and paper talk in Germany has him dropped and Miroslav Klose being restored to the starting line-up. Personally I'm not sold on Gomez at all and I think Klose is a much better fit for the type of game Germany play. I would also like to see Thomas Muller dropped after a poor season and one from Mario Gotze or Marco Reus given a chance, but in an evenly matched game like this I think the fact Muller has played with the team more will go in his favour. I also think that whilst Germany will be keen to get a win and all but qualify for the knockout stages, they will also be aware that a draw would hardly be the end of the world. I think they'll be keeping it fairly tight and looking to possibly sneak a goal late on if Holland decide they want a win more than risking a point.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with ToteSport.
Saturday, 9 June 2012
More Matches...
Onwards we go after a very entertaining first days matches between Poland and Greece and also Russia and Czech Republic. The early impressions are that the Greeks were there to be beaten, but the Poles were unable to punish them and let them back in from 1-0 and down to 10 men to back to finish 1-1. Also that the referee was hopeless and that Wojciech Szczęsny's confidence will help him long term, but right now makes him make some poor decisions at times. Russia backed up my assertion that they were more likely to hit than miss and in dishing out a 4-1 beating to the Czech's they certainly were. As impressive as they were though, the Czech's looked every bit the worst team in the tournament at times and may end up heading home without a point I think.
Spain v Italy, Sunday 1700
The holders of the Euro crown kick off with a match against another of the world's football forces, Italy, on Sunday. As I have mentioned in my previews I think Spain may well struggle to match the performances they've put in in the last two tournaments. They have two key players missing completely in Carles Puyol and David Villa. Puyol is an organiser at the back and with the likes of Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique are not the best at positioning and having Puyol around keeps them on their toes. David Villa is a huge miss in terms of team shape. Spain had settled on a system with a rotating front three at the last tournament and relied on most goals coming from Villa coming inside from wide positions. They don't have another player like this and will have to choose between Fernando Torres, Fernando Llorente and Alavaro Negredo to lead the line. Llorente would make the most sense as he has done that job for Bilbao very well the past two seasons. They aren't an attacking side and will probably be happy to settle for a draw in this match as it is the hardest match they should have in the group stage.
Italy have been rocked by pre-tournament controversy once again, and again it's match fixing. Domenico Criscito has had to be removed from the squad completely due to his alleged involvement and many others are also either loosely involved or will at the very least know those who are. This has led many to write Italy off as they clearly are not as good as many previous squads. Cesare Prandelli has picked Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano where previous managers would have left them behind as too risky. I think this is a recognition on Prandelli's part that with the options available he needs to hope that they can keep their emotions in check and provide some spark to a side that could easily be labelled pretty workmanlike. The defence should be organised and this first match will provide a test of how much they've improved since the South Africa debacle. I think they could sneak a draw if they keep their shape, but even if not I don't see a beating as Spain don't really run riot.
Back Under 2 Goals at 2.05 with Bet365.
Republic of Ireland v Croatia, Sunday 1945
This is a vital match for both of these sides as they have been paired up with heavyweights Spain and Italy in the group. The Republic have taken on a no defeat attitude since appointing Giovanni Trappatoni as manager, which has somewhat split the fans. Most seem happy that they have qualified for the Euro's with this approach, but many see the likes of Stephen Ireland and Wes Hoolahan being frozen out and crave some flair in the squad. Personally I'd have to say if I was a fan then I'd probably accept the tactics if it meant going to a major tournament, but there can be no denying they are not much to watch. They will have seven men behind the ball for large periods and even the wingers are expected to help the full backs as much as is possible. Robbie Keane will start alongside either Kevin Doyle or Shane Long as the more robust hold-up man. Keane, Duff and Dunne still being such key players should be a worry for the Irish with all looking some way past their best in the last season. I can't see them winning a match, but three draws are not beyond them in a group containing a lot of tired looking teams and star players.
Croatia are an interesting side. They don't stick to a rigid tactical approach, and are the antithesis of Ireland in that respect. Their star player is definitely Luka Modric, they rely on him to dictate play from the middle of the park in the way he did for Tottenham early on in the season. However, his being shifted out wide saw his influence wane and also he looked sluggish for Spurs in the final matches of the season. This should be a worry for the Croats, although manager Slaven Bilic has stated he is back to his best in training. The other big decision comes in attack with Eduardo and Nikola Jelavic both having good seasons. Jelavic has never been a regular starter for the national side, but ended the season so well with Everton he must surely now be under consideration especially seeing as he seemed able to do it all himself at times. Eduardo finally looked like he might have rediscovered his mojo after the horrific broken leg he suffered whilst at Arsenal. He is the normal front man, but with Bilic often tinkering I would not be surprised to see Jelavic also starting, or at least brought on if the match is a draw after an hour.
Back Croatia at 2.37 with BetVictor.
France v England, Monday 1700
We finally get to England on Monday afternoon, and they take on a much better France side than was seen at the previous two tournaments. Since appointing Laurent Blanc France have brought through another generation of players and are finally seeing the rewards of this. They may not be as good as the Thierry Henry, Zidane, Patrick Vieira vintage, but they were never likely to be. They are now unbeaten in twenty one matches and have seen many pundits tipping them as the best of the rest just before we kicked off here. I would probably agree with that assessment. The centre of defence is an issue, but the rest of the side is very good. The goalkeeper Hugo Lloris is as good as he ever was and the full backs of Mathieu Debuchy and presumably Gael Clichy have both had good seasons and should see the increasingly useless Patrice Evra sidelined. In midfield they will likely be missing their most defensive players for this first match, but will probably compensate by naming Yohan Cabaye and Blaise Mutuidi and aiming for possession. On the wings you have Franck Ribery and probably Florent Malouda after some impressive friendly performances lately. The you come to Samir Nasri behind Karim Benzema. This is definitely the tournament where Benzema should shine after a brilliant season for Real Madrid where Mourinho seems to have gotten the best out of him finally.
England have turned up with the worst squad they have taken to a tournament in my memory. Their strength should be in defence with Joe Hart a fantastic goalkeeper and then Glen Johnson, John Terry and Ashley Cole all regulars at this level. With Gary Cahill injured we should see Joleon Lescott rewarded for a brilliant domestic season with promotion to the starting eleven. In front of these we will have Scott Parker hairing around biting ankles and will need to watch he doesn't get too many bookings. I would imagine you will then see Steven Gerrard and James Milner the more central players with Gerrard in a more advanced role supporting wither Andy Carroll or Danny Welbeck. The wings will be vital as Ashley Young has shown for England he is the most likely man to make things happen with his pace and running at defenders. On the other side I would imagine it will be Stewart Downing to cross for Carroll if he starts as I expect. England will be pleased with a draw in this, but I think they'll struggle with the pace France have, especially if Ben Arfa makes an appearance from the bench or starts.
Back France at 2.56 on Betfair.
Ukraine v Sweden, Monday 1945
The second hosts start their campaign taking on Sweden on Monday. I will readily admit to knowing little about many of Ukraine's players individually outside of Anotoliy Timoschuk and Andrei Shevchenko. The knowledge I do have of them comes from seeing Shakhtar Donetsk and Dinamo Kiev in European competitions. They tend to have solid local players in defensive positions allied to South Americans in the attacking roles. This should mean the Ukranians strength will be the defence and they will rely on Shevchenko rolling back the years ably supported by wingers/forwards Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka. My research tells me this pair of twenty two year olds are pacy players who are able to cut in and score if they're playing well. It would seem if Ukraine are to get results or progress to the knockout stages they will need these two performing well. I'm keen to see them personally.
Sweden have again qualified for a major tournament, and often progress from the groups. They may not possess any stars outside of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but they can always be relied upon to perform as a team and be better then the sum of their parts. The defence still is likely to contain Majstorovic who couldn't even cut it in Scotland at Celtic, but looks a different player when with the national side. This is actually a good summing up of most of the side. Zlatan is often the opposite of this as he does not really fit into the team ethic and is unused to playing with players of this lesser standard regularly. However comma in recent matches he has been withdrawn into a playmaking role behind Johan Elmander and has seen his performances, along with the teams, improve greatly. It looks like Elmander will miss this match through injury and it is likely Ola Toivonen or Markus Rosenberg will step in, and they are not as adept at holding it up as Elmander. I think both sides would accept not losing this one as the match draws on and we may well see one of the more boring matches in the group stage.
Back the Draw at 3.25 at SkyBet.
Spain v Italy, Sunday 1700
The holders of the Euro crown kick off with a match against another of the world's football forces, Italy, on Sunday. As I have mentioned in my previews I think Spain may well struggle to match the performances they've put in in the last two tournaments. They have two key players missing completely in Carles Puyol and David Villa. Puyol is an organiser at the back and with the likes of Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique are not the best at positioning and having Puyol around keeps them on their toes. David Villa is a huge miss in terms of team shape. Spain had settled on a system with a rotating front three at the last tournament and relied on most goals coming from Villa coming inside from wide positions. They don't have another player like this and will have to choose between Fernando Torres, Fernando Llorente and Alavaro Negredo to lead the line. Llorente would make the most sense as he has done that job for Bilbao very well the past two seasons. They aren't an attacking side and will probably be happy to settle for a draw in this match as it is the hardest match they should have in the group stage.
Italy have been rocked by pre-tournament controversy once again, and again it's match fixing. Domenico Criscito has had to be removed from the squad completely due to his alleged involvement and many others are also either loosely involved or will at the very least know those who are. This has led many to write Italy off as they clearly are not as good as many previous squads. Cesare Prandelli has picked Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano where previous managers would have left them behind as too risky. I think this is a recognition on Prandelli's part that with the options available he needs to hope that they can keep their emotions in check and provide some spark to a side that could easily be labelled pretty workmanlike. The defence should be organised and this first match will provide a test of how much they've improved since the South Africa debacle. I think they could sneak a draw if they keep their shape, but even if not I don't see a beating as Spain don't really run riot.
Back Under 2 Goals at 2.05 with Bet365.
Republic of Ireland v Croatia, Sunday 1945
This is a vital match for both of these sides as they have been paired up with heavyweights Spain and Italy in the group. The Republic have taken on a no defeat attitude since appointing Giovanni Trappatoni as manager, which has somewhat split the fans. Most seem happy that they have qualified for the Euro's with this approach, but many see the likes of Stephen Ireland and Wes Hoolahan being frozen out and crave some flair in the squad. Personally I'd have to say if I was a fan then I'd probably accept the tactics if it meant going to a major tournament, but there can be no denying they are not much to watch. They will have seven men behind the ball for large periods and even the wingers are expected to help the full backs as much as is possible. Robbie Keane will start alongside either Kevin Doyle or Shane Long as the more robust hold-up man. Keane, Duff and Dunne still being such key players should be a worry for the Irish with all looking some way past their best in the last season. I can't see them winning a match, but three draws are not beyond them in a group containing a lot of tired looking teams and star players.
Croatia are an interesting side. They don't stick to a rigid tactical approach, and are the antithesis of Ireland in that respect. Their star player is definitely Luka Modric, they rely on him to dictate play from the middle of the park in the way he did for Tottenham early on in the season. However, his being shifted out wide saw his influence wane and also he looked sluggish for Spurs in the final matches of the season. This should be a worry for the Croats, although manager Slaven Bilic has stated he is back to his best in training. The other big decision comes in attack with Eduardo and Nikola Jelavic both having good seasons. Jelavic has never been a regular starter for the national side, but ended the season so well with Everton he must surely now be under consideration especially seeing as he seemed able to do it all himself at times. Eduardo finally looked like he might have rediscovered his mojo after the horrific broken leg he suffered whilst at Arsenal. He is the normal front man, but with Bilic often tinkering I would not be surprised to see Jelavic also starting, or at least brought on if the match is a draw after an hour.
Back Croatia at 2.37 with BetVictor.
France v England, Monday 1700
We finally get to England on Monday afternoon, and they take on a much better France side than was seen at the previous two tournaments. Since appointing Laurent Blanc France have brought through another generation of players and are finally seeing the rewards of this. They may not be as good as the Thierry Henry, Zidane, Patrick Vieira vintage, but they were never likely to be. They are now unbeaten in twenty one matches and have seen many pundits tipping them as the best of the rest just before we kicked off here. I would probably agree with that assessment. The centre of defence is an issue, but the rest of the side is very good. The goalkeeper Hugo Lloris is as good as he ever was and the full backs of Mathieu Debuchy and presumably Gael Clichy have both had good seasons and should see the increasingly useless Patrice Evra sidelined. In midfield they will likely be missing their most defensive players for this first match, but will probably compensate by naming Yohan Cabaye and Blaise Mutuidi and aiming for possession. On the wings you have Franck Ribery and probably Florent Malouda after some impressive friendly performances lately. The you come to Samir Nasri behind Karim Benzema. This is definitely the tournament where Benzema should shine after a brilliant season for Real Madrid where Mourinho seems to have gotten the best out of him finally.
England have turned up with the worst squad they have taken to a tournament in my memory. Their strength should be in defence with Joe Hart a fantastic goalkeeper and then Glen Johnson, John Terry and Ashley Cole all regulars at this level. With Gary Cahill injured we should see Joleon Lescott rewarded for a brilliant domestic season with promotion to the starting eleven. In front of these we will have Scott Parker hairing around biting ankles and will need to watch he doesn't get too many bookings. I would imagine you will then see Steven Gerrard and James Milner the more central players with Gerrard in a more advanced role supporting wither Andy Carroll or Danny Welbeck. The wings will be vital as Ashley Young has shown for England he is the most likely man to make things happen with his pace and running at defenders. On the other side I would imagine it will be Stewart Downing to cross for Carroll if he starts as I expect. England will be pleased with a draw in this, but I think they'll struggle with the pace France have, especially if Ben Arfa makes an appearance from the bench or starts.
Back France at 2.56 on Betfair.
Ukraine v Sweden, Monday 1945
The second hosts start their campaign taking on Sweden on Monday. I will readily admit to knowing little about many of Ukraine's players individually outside of Anotoliy Timoschuk and Andrei Shevchenko. The knowledge I do have of them comes from seeing Shakhtar Donetsk and Dinamo Kiev in European competitions. They tend to have solid local players in defensive positions allied to South Americans in the attacking roles. This should mean the Ukranians strength will be the defence and they will rely on Shevchenko rolling back the years ably supported by wingers/forwards Yarmolenko and Konoplyanka. My research tells me this pair of twenty two year olds are pacy players who are able to cut in and score if they're playing well. It would seem if Ukraine are to get results or progress to the knockout stages they will need these two performing well. I'm keen to see them personally.
Sweden have again qualified for a major tournament, and often progress from the groups. They may not possess any stars outside of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but they can always be relied upon to perform as a team and be better then the sum of their parts. The defence still is likely to contain Majstorovic who couldn't even cut it in Scotland at Celtic, but looks a different player when with the national side. This is actually a good summing up of most of the side. Zlatan is often the opposite of this as he does not really fit into the team ethic and is unused to playing with players of this lesser standard regularly. However comma in recent matches he has been withdrawn into a playmaking role behind Johan Elmander and has seen his performances, along with the teams, improve greatly. It looks like Elmander will miss this match through injury and it is likely Ola Toivonen or Markus Rosenberg will step in, and they are not as adept at holding it up as Elmander. I think both sides would accept not losing this one as the match draws on and we may well see one of the more boring matches in the group stage.
Back the Draw at 3.25 at SkyBet.
Wednesday, 6 June 2012
The First Two Days...
Well, hello all and welcome to the start of betting previews for each and every match in Euro 2012. There will inevitably be some sides I know less about so I may miss out some glaring piece of information that makes my tips a mess, if this is the case then please feel free to add that in the comments.
Poland v Greece, Friday 1700
First up is one half of the tournament hosts facing Euro 2004 champions Greece. Those of you that have read my tournament preview blogs will know that I have been tipping Poland for a while now as the potential outside shots. Unfortunately the bookies have also cottoned on to this and the prices on them have been cut accordingly, but that's not to say they still aren't backable. I'm a big believer in teams with form players in attack heading into tournaments, and also units within the team being from the same club. This familiarity makes the short time international squads are together less important, which is a huge boost to the sides lucky enough to have this. Poland possess Robert Lewandowski, Jakub Błaszczykowski and Łukasz Piszczek all from recent German double winners Dortmund. Lewandowski scored twenty league goals and will enjoy his role as a lone striker with support from Blaszcykowski as well as Obraniak of Bordeaux. Most of the squad will also be treating the competition as a shop window and benefit from some boisterous home support.
Greece were a team I considered as a real dark horse again. Having looked into the squad in more detail though and there seem to be too many players out of form and a complete lack of class. The three goalkeepers chosen have either been long term injury victims or dropped by their clubs at some point this season and have been panned by many within the Greek press. Karagounis will again play in the centre of midfield even though he has had a wretched season at club level. Then in attack they will be relying on the notoriously volatile Theo Gekas, capable of scoring a hatful or storming off in a huff at any moment. The defence will as always be their strongest area with plenty of choices of uncompromising centre halves and pacey full backs. The first choice centre backs Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Avraam Papadopoulos have been in good form this season and could well be key to any hopes Greece have. They have gone unbeaten in seventeen matches recently, so they're not going to be easy to beat, but I think they'll struggle if attacked.
Back Poland at 2.0 with SkyBet.
Russia v Czech Republic, Friday 1945
The second match on the first day sees two sides from the East meeting up. My feelings on Russia have gone the opposite way to that of Greece in recent weeks. I've always had them marked as a hit or miss side, and my early feeling was that they'd possibly completely bottle the tournament. With Andrei Arshavin central still and rotting at Arsenal until February I thought this would really hurt their chances. However comma his move to Zenit has seen him improve a lot, although still nowhere near his peak, and also seen Zenit romp to the league title. This will bode well as they provide numerous players for the national side like the striker Kerzakhov and the right wing back Zyryanov. Both are fantastic players and look set for good tournament I think. Throw in other loanees like Pavluychenko, Pogbrebnyak and Zhirkov all finding late form and I think they could surprise a few people and definitely look capable of scoring plenty.
I have the Czech Republic as potentially the worst side in the whole tournament. I can honestly not see anyone in their side who would worry anyone else in Poland/Ukraine. There are a few remnants of their great side of around a decade ago like Milan Baros still around, but he is woefully out of form and was not particularly welcome at Galatasaray last season. Tomas Necid was expected to be their next attacking hope, but he has completely failed to kick on in the last couple of years. Obviously Petr Cech was much improved in the final months of Chelsea's season, but he will have far less protection here and will need to perform miracles if the Czech's are to pick up a win.
Back Russia at 2.3 with BetVictor.
Netherlands v Denmark, Saturday 1700
First match in the 'Group of Death' has two sides famed for their attacking sides of the past meeting. The Netherlands come into the tournament off the back of an almost flawless qualifying campaign having lost their last match to Sweden when they had already qualified. Many sides would envy the array of attacking talent they possess with arguably Europe's two most in-form strikers in the squad in Robin Van Persie and Klaas Jan Huntelaar. Huntelaar finally settled at a club after leaving Holland and scored over forty goals in a great campaign at Schalke. Van Persie almost single handedly at times dragged Arsenal up to third in the Premier League and is now looking at possibly his last big pay day move. You also have the likes of Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, Rafa Van Der Vaart and Ibrahim Afellay all in support too. Manager Van Maarwijk has normally preferred Van Persie as a lone striker with Robben and Afellay on the wings and Sneijder behind, and I would imagine he'll stick with this unless a disaster occurs. Those four should be enough to strike fear into any opponents, although the lack of decent defenders is a worry and often sees Van Bommel and De Jong fielded in front almost chopping the team in two.
Denmark have been slightly underestimated by most I think. They are by no means going to turn up any trees, but I don't have them down as the whipping boys the odds would suggest. I certainly think they're a more rounded side than Portugal and wont lie down for anyone. They have one of the brightest prospects in European football in Ajax's Cristian Eriksen and I would expect him to light up matches if Denmark do well. The defence will include Daniel Agger and Simon Kjaer who have both been lauded in recent years as brilliant centre halves, although neither is necessarily a scrapper. They fit into coach Morten Olsen's idea of attacking football brilliantly though. And in attack they will field Niklas Bendtner who may well not be as good as he thinks, but is a useful player on his day nonetheless. If the Netherlands do go ahead I don't see them sitting back and hoping to hold on to a slender defeat, I'd expect them to go for broke.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with BoyleSports.
Germany v Portugal, Saturday 1945
This match will be the first chance to see if many people's, and my own, tips of Germany are as good as we think. This is by no means an easy start for them either as Portugal have a decent tournament track record. The biggest boost for Germany will be the news that Bastian Schweinsteiger has been declared fully fit. I think he is the best central midfielder in football today and will be especially important as an older head in a squad containing some young stars. The only possible weak spot I see for Germany is the centre of defence, and even that is only because of the strength they have in every other area. I would still expect them to be as organised as ever, only now they possess the threat of lethal counter-attacking play. They have Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski, Thomas Muller and Mesut Ozil as probably the starting four attackers, but then also have Mario Gomez, Marco Reus, Mario Gotze and Andreas Schurrle all coming off the back of good seasons ready to step in if needed. It really is a frightening choice in attack.
Portugal are possibly the most over-rated side here for me. Outside of Ronaldo, and he is one of the greats, they offer very little. They have also seen the calming influence and experience of Ricardo Carvalho withdraw after a disagreement with fiery coach Paulo Bento. The centre backs will be the combustible pair of Pepe and Bruno Alves, in midfield there is not a single attacking player and they still don't possess a striker worthy of the name. Ronaldo and Nani will be heavily leaned on to provide inspiration in a side where it is desperately lacking. In Ronaldo's case the goalscoring burden will also fall upon his shoulders and this has proven too much in the past. He has looked in far better shape for the national side in the last twelve months, but I still think he'll be let down by his teammates and possibly end up in his usual default mode of stroppy.
Back Germany at 2.02 on Betfair.
Poland v Greece, Friday 1700
First up is one half of the tournament hosts facing Euro 2004 champions Greece. Those of you that have read my tournament preview blogs will know that I have been tipping Poland for a while now as the potential outside shots. Unfortunately the bookies have also cottoned on to this and the prices on them have been cut accordingly, but that's not to say they still aren't backable. I'm a big believer in teams with form players in attack heading into tournaments, and also units within the team being from the same club. This familiarity makes the short time international squads are together less important, which is a huge boost to the sides lucky enough to have this. Poland possess Robert Lewandowski, Jakub Błaszczykowski and Łukasz Piszczek all from recent German double winners Dortmund. Lewandowski scored twenty league goals and will enjoy his role as a lone striker with support from Blaszcykowski as well as Obraniak of Bordeaux. Most of the squad will also be treating the competition as a shop window and benefit from some boisterous home support.
Greece were a team I considered as a real dark horse again. Having looked into the squad in more detail though and there seem to be too many players out of form and a complete lack of class. The three goalkeepers chosen have either been long term injury victims or dropped by their clubs at some point this season and have been panned by many within the Greek press. Karagounis will again play in the centre of midfield even though he has had a wretched season at club level. Then in attack they will be relying on the notoriously volatile Theo Gekas, capable of scoring a hatful or storming off in a huff at any moment. The defence will as always be their strongest area with plenty of choices of uncompromising centre halves and pacey full backs. The first choice centre backs Sokratis Papastathopoulos and Avraam Papadopoulos have been in good form this season and could well be key to any hopes Greece have. They have gone unbeaten in seventeen matches recently, so they're not going to be easy to beat, but I think they'll struggle if attacked.
Back Poland at 2.0 with SkyBet.
Russia v Czech Republic, Friday 1945
The second match on the first day sees two sides from the East meeting up. My feelings on Russia have gone the opposite way to that of Greece in recent weeks. I've always had them marked as a hit or miss side, and my early feeling was that they'd possibly completely bottle the tournament. With Andrei Arshavin central still and rotting at Arsenal until February I thought this would really hurt their chances. However comma his move to Zenit has seen him improve a lot, although still nowhere near his peak, and also seen Zenit romp to the league title. This will bode well as they provide numerous players for the national side like the striker Kerzakhov and the right wing back Zyryanov. Both are fantastic players and look set for good tournament I think. Throw in other loanees like Pavluychenko, Pogbrebnyak and Zhirkov all finding late form and I think they could surprise a few people and definitely look capable of scoring plenty.
I have the Czech Republic as potentially the worst side in the whole tournament. I can honestly not see anyone in their side who would worry anyone else in Poland/Ukraine. There are a few remnants of their great side of around a decade ago like Milan Baros still around, but he is woefully out of form and was not particularly welcome at Galatasaray last season. Tomas Necid was expected to be their next attacking hope, but he has completely failed to kick on in the last couple of years. Obviously Petr Cech was much improved in the final months of Chelsea's season, but he will have far less protection here and will need to perform miracles if the Czech's are to pick up a win.
Back Russia at 2.3 with BetVictor.
Netherlands v Denmark, Saturday 1700
First match in the 'Group of Death' has two sides famed for their attacking sides of the past meeting. The Netherlands come into the tournament off the back of an almost flawless qualifying campaign having lost their last match to Sweden when they had already qualified. Many sides would envy the array of attacking talent they possess with arguably Europe's two most in-form strikers in the squad in Robin Van Persie and Klaas Jan Huntelaar. Huntelaar finally settled at a club after leaving Holland and scored over forty goals in a great campaign at Schalke. Van Persie almost single handedly at times dragged Arsenal up to third in the Premier League and is now looking at possibly his last big pay day move. You also have the likes of Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, Rafa Van Der Vaart and Ibrahim Afellay all in support too. Manager Van Maarwijk has normally preferred Van Persie as a lone striker with Robben and Afellay on the wings and Sneijder behind, and I would imagine he'll stick with this unless a disaster occurs. Those four should be enough to strike fear into any opponents, although the lack of decent defenders is a worry and often sees Van Bommel and De Jong fielded in front almost chopping the team in two.
Denmark have been slightly underestimated by most I think. They are by no means going to turn up any trees, but I don't have them down as the whipping boys the odds would suggest. I certainly think they're a more rounded side than Portugal and wont lie down for anyone. They have one of the brightest prospects in European football in Ajax's Cristian Eriksen and I would expect him to light up matches if Denmark do well. The defence will include Daniel Agger and Simon Kjaer who have both been lauded in recent years as brilliant centre halves, although neither is necessarily a scrapper. They fit into coach Morten Olsen's idea of attacking football brilliantly though. And in attack they will field Niklas Bendtner who may well not be as good as he thinks, but is a useful player on his day nonetheless. If the Netherlands do go ahead I don't see them sitting back and hoping to hold on to a slender defeat, I'd expect them to go for broke.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with BoyleSports.
Germany v Portugal, Saturday 1945
This match will be the first chance to see if many people's, and my own, tips of Germany are as good as we think. This is by no means an easy start for them either as Portugal have a decent tournament track record. The biggest boost for Germany will be the news that Bastian Schweinsteiger has been declared fully fit. I think he is the best central midfielder in football today and will be especially important as an older head in a squad containing some young stars. The only possible weak spot I see for Germany is the centre of defence, and even that is only because of the strength they have in every other area. I would still expect them to be as organised as ever, only now they possess the threat of lethal counter-attacking play. They have Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski, Thomas Muller and Mesut Ozil as probably the starting four attackers, but then also have Mario Gomez, Marco Reus, Mario Gotze and Andreas Schurrle all coming off the back of good seasons ready to step in if needed. It really is a frightening choice in attack.
Portugal are possibly the most over-rated side here for me. Outside of Ronaldo, and he is one of the greats, they offer very little. They have also seen the calming influence and experience of Ricardo Carvalho withdraw after a disagreement with fiery coach Paulo Bento. The centre backs will be the combustible pair of Pepe and Bruno Alves, in midfield there is not a single attacking player and they still don't possess a striker worthy of the name. Ronaldo and Nani will be heavily leaned on to provide inspiration in a side where it is desperately lacking. In Ronaldo's case the goalscoring burden will also fall upon his shoulders and this has proven too much in the past. He has looked in far better shape for the national side in the last twelve months, but I still think he'll be let down by his teammates and possibly end up in his usual default mode of stroppy.
Back Germany at 2.02 on Betfair.
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