Last weekend made it four from four profitable weekends in a row now for everyone, and has hopefully left you all with a nice bit extra for the Xmas break. This is the last weekend for a while where all the leagues we cover are running as most barring England have a winter break before returning in the new year. Due to it being the festive period there will be a possibility that I do not have time to complete another full column so keep an eye on @TopTopTips on the Twitter for all your betting needs!
Week 18
Liverpool v Aston Villa - Win 2.58 points.
Norwich v Wigan - Win 2.6 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao - Lose 2 points.
Chievo v Roma - Win 1.94 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt - Win 1.98 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg - Lose 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor - Lose 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce - Win 2.1 points.
Total - Win 5.2 points.
Running Total - Up 12.65 points.
As it's the season, we'll listen to The Ramones with Merry Christmas (I don't want to fight tonight).
West Bromwich Albion v Norwich City, Saturday 1500
I was following West Brom after their brilliant start to the season and have since actually moved towards their opponents when betting. Steve Clarke has done an excellent job after taking over as manager at The Hawthorns in the summer, but of late the goals have dried up and his side are struggling a bit. They are not getting blown away by sides, Clarke's reputation as a master defensive coach will not be for nothing, but with all their strikers out of form they are not getting any results. They do have a small squad by Premier League standards and the fatigue that may set in as most of their players were regulars all of last season too could be the issue. They have only conceded six in eight home matches, but whilst they look so poor in front of goal it is hard to see their odds as representative.
Norwich had an awful start to the season, but are now on the longest unbeaten run in Europe's top divisions except for the might of Barcelona. Whereas Steve Clarke looked a shoe-in for manager of the season a month ago with West Brom hovering around the Champions League spots, Norwich would actually overtake their hosts in the table with a victory. Norwich's turnaround is not exactly rocket science, they have settled new players into the side and improved in every area. A leaky defence due to both centre halves being new has now turned into one of the most solid looking in the league. The midfield has looked solid with Alexander Tettey an added physical presence, Wes Hoolahan providing flair and incisiveness and Anthony Pilkington looking a danger every match from wide. Grant Holt also discovering his form of the past few seasons, if not as prolific, has also aided their recover no end.
Lay West Bromwich Albion at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Southampton v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
This match is not that different to the first pick for me, with one side's form receding as the others picks up. Neither of these sides has hit the heights of form that West Brom or Norwich have, but they have changed nevertheless. Southampton started the season looking every a inch a promoted side well out of their depth. The defence in particular looked absolutely dreadful and it was tough to see how they could avoid relegation. To the manager Nigel Adkins credit they have turned it round to the extent that they now have a fighting chance of escaping. With a truly horrendous away record this is almost exclusively down to a home record that has seen them win three and draw three of nine. This being said I still think that with the exception of Gaston Ramirez and possibly Adam Lallana they are still a side that belongs in the second tier and look very short for the win to me.
Sunderland are slowly picking up again after a terrible run once the initial effect of Martin O'Neill's appointment wore off last season. The Northern Irishman is known as a master motivator and it seemed that just his being around was getting hugely increased performances out of his players. Unfortunately my opinion is that he is tactically behind the times and limited as well as having a very closed minded approach to new signings. He plays a very defensive style of football which does help them become tough to beat, but at home it leaves the fans feeling short changed and this feeds into the players. The only major signing was Steven Fletcher in the summer and whilst he has impressed even when other have not, O'Neill's seeming refusal to scout further afield than Scotland leaves me with the impression he's missing out. All this being said, against a Southampton side that look a bit green O'Neill should fancy his sides chances of escaping with at least a point and I would agree.
Lay Southampton at 2.05 on Betfair. 2 points.
Malaga v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
I've not layed Real Madrid often enough this season I don't think. Regular watchers have reported a severe drop off in performance levels in the league in general and particularly away from home. Mourinho all but admitted he could not guide his side to the league title this season last weekend to much disgust in the ever important local press. I would imagine the three year curse is in again and would expect him to leave as soon as Real leave the Champions League and definitely at seasons end even if they triumph. Away from home they have a record of won four, drawn one and lost three.
Malaga have surprised many observers after selling Santi Cazorla and seeing the Dubai funds dry up by staying in the hunt for Champions League qualification again as well as qualifying top of their Champions League group ahead of AC Milan and the highly fancied Zenit St Petersburg. This is to experienced manager Manuel Pellegrini's credit as he has promoted youngster Isco to the side and has seen the talented attacking midfielder repay him with numerous match winning performances. They have a home record of won five, drawn one and lost only two. They look a shade overpriced when looking at the teams respective performances.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.62 on Betfair. 2 points.
Atalanta v Udinese, Saturday 1400
This is another pick basically due to home and away form of the sides. Atalanta have been excellent at home this year and a record of won five and lost three so far. They have only scored ten goals in those matches and conceded eleven, but if you remove the strange thrashing they took by Torino at home in a 5-1 defeat then the record looks much better. They rely upon a strong defence and midfield that works very hard to help out and then an attack which takes a good percentage of the few chances created. This might not work in many other leagues, but in the notoriously defensive Serie A it is good enough for a solid mid-table finish.
Udinese look like they may finally be suffering for selling off their best players every summer and relying on the goals of ageing hitman Antonion Di Natale. They do have a brilliant scouting network in South America and Africa which will no doubt turn out some more gems, but at present they are not as strong as they have been. They are nowhere near relegation, but the last two seasons title pushes look a long way off now. They've drawn eight matches so far this season of seventeen, with an even spread between home and away. They've only won two away however comma and have also conceded fourteen in only nine matches. I couldn't back them in this one.
Back Atalanta at 2.25 with Boylesports. 2 points.
German Bundesliga all done until January 2013.
Kasimpasa v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1300
Kasimpasa started off the season in the Super Lig brilliantly after promotion over the summer. This has now inevitably tailed off though and the more experienced sides have settled in above them. Kasimpasa went for a transfer approach which saw them buying up numerous players with top level experience in Turkey rather than trusting in the players that brought them up and you would have to say it has been a success with them comfortably in the top half of the table. Their home matches have also produced a lot of goals by the countries standards with fourteen four and ten against. They give and take on the tactics front and a record with four draws, three wins and a sole defeat doesn't quite do that justice. It just shows that their approach of scoring more than the opposition has worked, but I think they've been fortunate so far too.
Istanbul BB have upset the tactical cart in Turkey along with Mersin Idman Yurdu by having the temerity to play for wins away from home. This has only previously been the reserve of the big Istanbul clubs and has not been taken into account in some of the odds as I see it. They've not conceded as many as some away from home, but have had a tendency to let them in when sides come at them as Kasimpasa are likely too. I think they'll either be good for a goal at least themselves or have an off day and take a thrashing so I think goals is the bet here.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with William Hill. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
It's two weekends in a row now that Galatasaray have huge matches. This weekend sees them travelling to a Trabzonspor side who are having a mixed season in the absence of key man Burak Yilmaz. Yilmaz departed for Gala over the summer and with him responsible for over half of the sides goals last season they have had to change tactics considerably to replace his goals. They have scored the least goals of any side in the top half of the Super Lig table to show that they have not quite worked it out yet. They do have a decent record at home so far with four wins, two draws and two defeats, but it's not enough for them to push for a European spot. The two home matches I would class as tough they have faced so far against Eskisehirspor and Bursaspor have both seen them defeated too.
Galatasaray emerged from last weeks Istanbul derby with Fenerbahce with a 2-1 win and will go into the month long winter break at the top of the Super Lig and well on course to retain their title. They have not always fared well in the derby matches either so will take great confidence from that win and would probably not have welcomed the break with a chance to push on and pull further clear. They have an away record of won four, drawn three and only lost once. There has been the odd strange result for them so far, but these should be discarded as anomolies for me, they're by far the best side in Turkey. They have every chance of beating a Trabzon side who look poorer than at any time in a number of years.
Back Galatasaray at 2.3 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Thursday, 20 December 2012
Friday, 14 December 2012
Making The Most Of It...
This weeks title refers to the fact that many leagues around Europe shut up shop over the Xmas period and therefore this column will shrink considerably when this happens. So we should strike while the irons still warm, as it were. It's been a decent recent run so let's hope this continues on into this festive period!
Week Seventeen
Swansea v Norwich - Win 2.36 points.
Man City v Man Utd - Lose 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca - Win 2.1 points.
Inter Milan v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04 - Win 3.8 points.
Monchengladbach v Mainz 05 - Win 1.8 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Total - Win 1.06 points.
Running Total - Up 7.45 points.
Music this week from a slightly more mainstream choice with The Gaslight Anthem and American Slang.
Liverpool v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Those of you that follow me on Twitter @TopTopTips will probably have noticed that I tend to see Liverpool as often underpriced by the bookmakers. By this I mean I often think the odds are far shorter than they should be. I think the reasons for this are two-fold. There is the history the club has which comes with the reputation that they are a big club and should be beating those who are traditionally much smaller and also as there will often be plenty of money on Liverpool from punters (particularly in matches at Anfield). These things add up to them being shorter than I would price them from a step back. If you look at results over the past two seasons in particular it is clear to see they have regressed well below the Manchester sides as well as Chelsea and probably the likes of Tottenham and Arsenal too, although it could be argued Arsenal are going away. This weekend they take on an Aston Villa side who look to me like they are beginning to find a system that Paul Lambert and the players agree on and are happy in. This has meant that Darren Bent has been relegated behind summer signing Christian Benteke as the Belgian offers far more to the overall team than the English goal-getter. Liverpool's defence has not always looked brilliant when up against a muscular forward and Benteke fits this description.
As mentioned, Villa look to me like they have finally turned a corner and look a lot harder to beat than at any point in the last eighteen months. Paul Lambert has gone back to basics in general and has picked players who have more physical attributes than technical, with the exception of Stephen Ireland, and gone for a relatively defensive approach. This was similar at Norwich where graft was in general valued over fancy trickery and was very successful as the players were possibly aware that they were being given a chance and had to work very hard to keep a place in both the team and the division. Villa are a hard working side now, epitomised by Benteke and Andreas Weimann in attack and complimented by the flair of Ireland being given a role. He is the only player in the side really aloud outside of a strict system and will hope to find gaps to exploit when given a chance.
Back Aston Villa +2 Handicap at 1.72 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Norwich City v Wigan Athletic, Saturday 1500
Another team that have turned their fortunes round this season are Paul Lambert's old side, Norwich. Under the new manager Chris Hughton they took a little while to settle in, but are now looking pretty solid for a mid-table finish again. A lot of their shaky start can probably be put down to a whole new centre of defence and also the lack of creativity in midfield. The pairing of new signings Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong at centre back looks one of the better in the whole Premier League lately and considering it was under £4million for the pair looks an absolute steal now. The improvement in midfield has coincided with Wes Hoolahan's reinstatement in the side. The little Irishman is a great player 'in the hole' and should probably have earned a crack at the top division before now. The current hot streak of form Anthony Pilkington is also in from wide has seen Grant Holt finding last seasons performance level again also and Norwich look very good to me. They've already beaten Manchester United and Arsenal!
Wigan have traditionally been a bogey side for me when betting. They're capable of performing very well when everything clicks, and this seems to happen when I'm against them, so consider yourselves forewarned. This season they have started as slowly as ever, interspersed with the odd impressive performance. I am not at all convinced that Roberto Martinez is the man for the club, his tendency to always go for passing out of trouble is not always the right choice at a club who are likely to be around the relegation spots on the whole. That's not to say he's not a good manager, just maybe not at the right club. He also seems to have a blind spot when it comes to defenders of any quality. He has gone to Spain again this summer to sign Adrian Lopez and Ivan Ramis and I'm not really convinced La Liga is the place to go for defenders, particularly to import to England. The slower pace of the game and reduced physicality means most who come over are shocked and don't fare well, and I think both of these signings fit that description.
Back Norwich City at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1700
This one is simply from looking at some basic pointers and acting accordingly. Mallorca have been a perfectly decent home side for a number of seasons now, and this has continued this time out. They have a record of played seven at home, won three, drawn one and lost three. For a side that seems to aspire to little more than surviving these days that is not bad at all. Athletic Bilbao have moved from a generally backable side last season to one that ought to be layed unless there's particular reason this time. The manager Marcelo Bielsa's methods are only considered effective for a short period when in day to day contact as players and this has been the case here. The Argentine is a notoriously demanding and eccentric coach and it seems many of the side are simply shattered and no longer responding to him.
Back Mallorca at 2.5 with BlueSq. 2 points.
Chievo v Roma, Sunday 1400
Chievo have had a very good home record to thank for them staying in Italy's top division for so long when many expected them to head back to the lower divisions a long time ago. They have not had mountains of money to spend or any huge gate receipts or sponsorship, they have simply relied upon good management, signings and tactics. Italy is obviously a slow, defence minded league and Chievo certainly fit that bill. They are well organised and have only conceded nine in eight home games, of which three were in a dreadful performance against a good Lazio side. They'll make most sides thoroughly earn a victory at their place.
Roma have been hit and miss so far this season as they are again restructuring under Zdenek Zeman's charge. He has a reputation he largely forged in a previous spell at the club for attacking football and having promoted Pescara last season from Serie B he has taken the reigns after last seasons underwhelming Spanish experiment. They currently lie in fifth spot but have conceded twenty six goals already to show they do not rely upon the backline to gain wins, it's more a case of 'we'll get one more than you'! I think they're very short at odds on here.
Lay Roma at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday 1430
First tip from the Bundesliga is this seasons surprise package Frankfurt travelling to recent champions Wolfsburg. Since that Bundesliga title Wolfsburg have been steadily slipping due to numerous player and manager changes, none of which have been at all successful. Whilst it is entirely natural that other larger clubs would pick off the best of the side that won the league, the speed with which it all fell apart has been quite something. Even Steve McClaren got a brief, awful reign in the hotseat. This season they currently find themselves in amongst the relegation players in fourteenth position, although they are some way clear of the bottom three. They also have a pretty poor home record so far of having won only one, drawn three and lost three. They are also struggling to score and conceding with alarming regularity too. They have the worst goal difference outside of the bottom three as we stand. Although they have only lost one of the last six they are still leaking goals and have played sides on days when their oppositions performances have not been great.
Eintracht Frankfurt were one of the promoted trio over the summer and look likely to head into the Xmas break in a European spot. They got off to a brilliant start and most would have expected them to already have reverted back to a more mixed set of results and fallen down the table, but this has not happened. They have had some awful performances, but generally they've not looked at all out of place in the top division. They've also beaten plenty of good sides so far and look a little under-valued by the bookmakers in this to me.
Lay Wolfsburg at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg, Sunday 1630
Two more sides having very mixed seasons are meeting on Sunday afternoon in Bremen. Werder currently sit in the bottom half of the table having not really sorted out their tactical approach. They seem to have reverted back to a more gung-ho style after last seasons unsuccessful attempt to try sorting out their eternally horrendous defence. All that seemed to do was stop them scoring and they were only conceding slightly less. All this being said, they have generally been backable at home. This season they have won four, drawn one and lost two in Bremen. Those two were to Bayern Munich and the impressive Bayer Leverkusen too, so no real disgrace in that at all. I'm taking a chance on them responding to last weeks thrashing and getting a good result.
Nurnberg sit one place below Werder in the table at present, but have not had anywhere near as many good performances as their opponents. With little money to spend and no real tradition to attract players they have tended to rely upon a defensive approach to their tactics and grinding out results. Strikers being the most valuable of assets has meant that bringing in a cutting edge has eluded them too. So far this season they have only scored sixteen in sixteen and only six in eight away from home. Away from home has been particularly poor with only two wins, one draw and five defeats and thirteen conceded in that time. Werder have a great chance to get back on track.
Back Werder Bremen at 1.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
This is going up a bit later than usual so sorry if this is too late for anyone. Eskisehirspor are a personal favourite side of mine in the Super Lig due to their tendency to stay with the big boys most of the season, yet be priced up like a mid-table side in general. With such low liquidity in the market and a lack of knowledge outside the Istanbul three this is no real surprise, but should allow us to make some extra profits when winning with them. They currently sit fourth in the table with a frankly brilliant home record so far. They have won four, drawn two and only lost one and scored seventeen goals in that time with eight conceded. In seasons past the against column may well have been much lower, but at the cost of any attacking threat. They look a much more rounded side now and a challenge for anyone in the division.
Bursaspor have failed to kick on from their Super Lig title of a few years back. They have attempted to sign older Turkish players returning from abroad and players like Scott Carson and Kenny Miller who have excelled, but fallen out of favour in their leagues. Probably not surprisingly this has not been a roaring success and they have had mixed results for the past two seasons and show no signs of that changing. They have become draw specialists away from home with a record of won two, drawn four and lost only one. Whilst that shows they are set up to be hard to beat away, Eskisehir have the ability to blow them away.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.37 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
This simply has to be included! The biggest game in the Super Lig season is always the Istanbul derby between perennial giants Gala and Fener. So far this season Gala have led from the beginning and barring a few slips after Champions League matches they have been pretty imperious. Whilst Fener have signed attackers for the last couple of seasons, Gala have had a more team led strategy of purchasing which has seen them have by far the better, more balanced side. At home so far they have only lost one match to Karabukspor in a strange match where they never got going at all. It definitely seems a rick in form so I'd probably discount it. It was the start of a poorer run where they were definitely focussing their attentions on the Champions League and now that is out of the way I would expect them to kick on again and xtend their lead on top of the table. Last weekends 3-1 away win at Sivasspor shows that might well be starting.
Fenerbahce have looked excellent at home in the Super Lig and Europa League this season, but have looked anything but when on their travels. They have only been beaten once away in the league, but have only won once and drawn five, many when they were lucky to escape to be honest. When you also bear in mind that of those seven trips only Eskisehirspor could be counted as a tough visit so it is far from a good set of results. They will definitely raise their game for this one, but I'm not sure it will be enough when looking at their previous results. They have the attacking quality, but with Burak Yilmaz finding his feet at Gala the defence should be very worried.
Back Galatasaray at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Week Seventeen
Swansea v Norwich - Win 2.36 points.
Man City v Man Utd - Lose 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca - Win 2.1 points.
Inter Milan v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04 - Win 3.8 points.
Monchengladbach v Mainz 05 - Win 1.8 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Total - Win 1.06 points.
Running Total - Up 7.45 points.
Music this week from a slightly more mainstream choice with The Gaslight Anthem and American Slang.
Liverpool v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Those of you that follow me on Twitter @TopTopTips will probably have noticed that I tend to see Liverpool as often underpriced by the bookmakers. By this I mean I often think the odds are far shorter than they should be. I think the reasons for this are two-fold. There is the history the club has which comes with the reputation that they are a big club and should be beating those who are traditionally much smaller and also as there will often be plenty of money on Liverpool from punters (particularly in matches at Anfield). These things add up to them being shorter than I would price them from a step back. If you look at results over the past two seasons in particular it is clear to see they have regressed well below the Manchester sides as well as Chelsea and probably the likes of Tottenham and Arsenal too, although it could be argued Arsenal are going away. This weekend they take on an Aston Villa side who look to me like they are beginning to find a system that Paul Lambert and the players agree on and are happy in. This has meant that Darren Bent has been relegated behind summer signing Christian Benteke as the Belgian offers far more to the overall team than the English goal-getter. Liverpool's defence has not always looked brilliant when up against a muscular forward and Benteke fits this description.
As mentioned, Villa look to me like they have finally turned a corner and look a lot harder to beat than at any point in the last eighteen months. Paul Lambert has gone back to basics in general and has picked players who have more physical attributes than technical, with the exception of Stephen Ireland, and gone for a relatively defensive approach. This was similar at Norwich where graft was in general valued over fancy trickery and was very successful as the players were possibly aware that they were being given a chance and had to work very hard to keep a place in both the team and the division. Villa are a hard working side now, epitomised by Benteke and Andreas Weimann in attack and complimented by the flair of Ireland being given a role. He is the only player in the side really aloud outside of a strict system and will hope to find gaps to exploit when given a chance.
Back Aston Villa +2 Handicap at 1.72 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Norwich City v Wigan Athletic, Saturday 1500
Another team that have turned their fortunes round this season are Paul Lambert's old side, Norwich. Under the new manager Chris Hughton they took a little while to settle in, but are now looking pretty solid for a mid-table finish again. A lot of their shaky start can probably be put down to a whole new centre of defence and also the lack of creativity in midfield. The pairing of new signings Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong at centre back looks one of the better in the whole Premier League lately and considering it was under £4million for the pair looks an absolute steal now. The improvement in midfield has coincided with Wes Hoolahan's reinstatement in the side. The little Irishman is a great player 'in the hole' and should probably have earned a crack at the top division before now. The current hot streak of form Anthony Pilkington is also in from wide has seen Grant Holt finding last seasons performance level again also and Norwich look very good to me. They've already beaten Manchester United and Arsenal!
Wigan have traditionally been a bogey side for me when betting. They're capable of performing very well when everything clicks, and this seems to happen when I'm against them, so consider yourselves forewarned. This season they have started as slowly as ever, interspersed with the odd impressive performance. I am not at all convinced that Roberto Martinez is the man for the club, his tendency to always go for passing out of trouble is not always the right choice at a club who are likely to be around the relegation spots on the whole. That's not to say he's not a good manager, just maybe not at the right club. He also seems to have a blind spot when it comes to defenders of any quality. He has gone to Spain again this summer to sign Adrian Lopez and Ivan Ramis and I'm not really convinced La Liga is the place to go for defenders, particularly to import to England. The slower pace of the game and reduced physicality means most who come over are shocked and don't fare well, and I think both of these signings fit that description.
Back Norwich City at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1700
This one is simply from looking at some basic pointers and acting accordingly. Mallorca have been a perfectly decent home side for a number of seasons now, and this has continued this time out. They have a record of played seven at home, won three, drawn one and lost three. For a side that seems to aspire to little more than surviving these days that is not bad at all. Athletic Bilbao have moved from a generally backable side last season to one that ought to be layed unless there's particular reason this time. The manager Marcelo Bielsa's methods are only considered effective for a short period when in day to day contact as players and this has been the case here. The Argentine is a notoriously demanding and eccentric coach and it seems many of the side are simply shattered and no longer responding to him.
Back Mallorca at 2.5 with BlueSq. 2 points.
Chievo v Roma, Sunday 1400
Chievo have had a very good home record to thank for them staying in Italy's top division for so long when many expected them to head back to the lower divisions a long time ago. They have not had mountains of money to spend or any huge gate receipts or sponsorship, they have simply relied upon good management, signings and tactics. Italy is obviously a slow, defence minded league and Chievo certainly fit that bill. They are well organised and have only conceded nine in eight home games, of which three were in a dreadful performance against a good Lazio side. They'll make most sides thoroughly earn a victory at their place.
Roma have been hit and miss so far this season as they are again restructuring under Zdenek Zeman's charge. He has a reputation he largely forged in a previous spell at the club for attacking football and having promoted Pescara last season from Serie B he has taken the reigns after last seasons underwhelming Spanish experiment. They currently lie in fifth spot but have conceded twenty six goals already to show they do not rely upon the backline to gain wins, it's more a case of 'we'll get one more than you'! I think they're very short at odds on here.
Lay Roma at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday 1430
First tip from the Bundesliga is this seasons surprise package Frankfurt travelling to recent champions Wolfsburg. Since that Bundesliga title Wolfsburg have been steadily slipping due to numerous player and manager changes, none of which have been at all successful. Whilst it is entirely natural that other larger clubs would pick off the best of the side that won the league, the speed with which it all fell apart has been quite something. Even Steve McClaren got a brief, awful reign in the hotseat. This season they currently find themselves in amongst the relegation players in fourteenth position, although they are some way clear of the bottom three. They also have a pretty poor home record so far of having won only one, drawn three and lost three. They are also struggling to score and conceding with alarming regularity too. They have the worst goal difference outside of the bottom three as we stand. Although they have only lost one of the last six they are still leaking goals and have played sides on days when their oppositions performances have not been great.
Eintracht Frankfurt were one of the promoted trio over the summer and look likely to head into the Xmas break in a European spot. They got off to a brilliant start and most would have expected them to already have reverted back to a more mixed set of results and fallen down the table, but this has not happened. They have had some awful performances, but generally they've not looked at all out of place in the top division. They've also beaten plenty of good sides so far and look a little under-valued by the bookmakers in this to me.
Lay Wolfsburg at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg, Sunday 1630
Two more sides having very mixed seasons are meeting on Sunday afternoon in Bremen. Werder currently sit in the bottom half of the table having not really sorted out their tactical approach. They seem to have reverted back to a more gung-ho style after last seasons unsuccessful attempt to try sorting out their eternally horrendous defence. All that seemed to do was stop them scoring and they were only conceding slightly less. All this being said, they have generally been backable at home. This season they have won four, drawn one and lost two in Bremen. Those two were to Bayern Munich and the impressive Bayer Leverkusen too, so no real disgrace in that at all. I'm taking a chance on them responding to last weeks thrashing and getting a good result.
Nurnberg sit one place below Werder in the table at present, but have not had anywhere near as many good performances as their opponents. With little money to spend and no real tradition to attract players they have tended to rely upon a defensive approach to their tactics and grinding out results. Strikers being the most valuable of assets has meant that bringing in a cutting edge has eluded them too. So far this season they have only scored sixteen in sixteen and only six in eight away from home. Away from home has been particularly poor with only two wins, one draw and five defeats and thirteen conceded in that time. Werder have a great chance to get back on track.
Back Werder Bremen at 1.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
This is going up a bit later than usual so sorry if this is too late for anyone. Eskisehirspor are a personal favourite side of mine in the Super Lig due to their tendency to stay with the big boys most of the season, yet be priced up like a mid-table side in general. With such low liquidity in the market and a lack of knowledge outside the Istanbul three this is no real surprise, but should allow us to make some extra profits when winning with them. They currently sit fourth in the table with a frankly brilliant home record so far. They have won four, drawn two and only lost one and scored seventeen goals in that time with eight conceded. In seasons past the against column may well have been much lower, but at the cost of any attacking threat. They look a much more rounded side now and a challenge for anyone in the division.
Bursaspor have failed to kick on from their Super Lig title of a few years back. They have attempted to sign older Turkish players returning from abroad and players like Scott Carson and Kenny Miller who have excelled, but fallen out of favour in their leagues. Probably not surprisingly this has not been a roaring success and they have had mixed results for the past two seasons and show no signs of that changing. They have become draw specialists away from home with a record of won two, drawn four and lost only one. Whilst that shows they are set up to be hard to beat away, Eskisehir have the ability to blow them away.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.37 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
This simply has to be included! The biggest game in the Super Lig season is always the Istanbul derby between perennial giants Gala and Fener. So far this season Gala have led from the beginning and barring a few slips after Champions League matches they have been pretty imperious. Whilst Fener have signed attackers for the last couple of seasons, Gala have had a more team led strategy of purchasing which has seen them have by far the better, more balanced side. At home so far they have only lost one match to Karabukspor in a strange match where they never got going at all. It definitely seems a rick in form so I'd probably discount it. It was the start of a poorer run where they were definitely focussing their attentions on the Champions League and now that is out of the way I would expect them to kick on again and xtend their lead on top of the table. Last weekends 3-1 away win at Sivasspor shows that might well be starting.
Fenerbahce have looked excellent at home in the Super Lig and Europa League this season, but have looked anything but when on their travels. They have only been beaten once away in the league, but have only won once and drawn five, many when they were lucky to escape to be honest. When you also bear in mind that of those seven trips only Eskisehirspor could be counted as a tough visit so it is far from a good set of results. They will definitely raise their game for this one, but I'm not sure it will be enough when looking at their previous results. They have the attacking quality, but with Burak Yilmaz finding his feet at Gala the defence should be very worried.
Back Galatasaray at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Thursday, 6 December 2012
Back And Raring To Go...
Last week I sadly got tremendously busy and was unable to write a full column, so my apologies for that. Until the momentous day I become paid for all this my real job has to take priority! Those that follow me on the Twitter using @TopTopTips will have made some money over the weekend though and also a small bit on the Champions League so far.
Week Fifteen
Total - Win 2.35 points.
Week Sixteen
Total - Win 2.3 points.
Running Total - Up 6.39 points.
Music this week from Above Them with Give It Up To Start Again, Leeds based band who are very good live.
Swansea v Norwich, Saturday 1500
Two of last season's promoted sides meet in Wales this weekend. Swansea are under new management with Michael Laudrup now the man in charge and attempting to build on the work Brendan Rodgers did in keeping them up last year. He has had a mixed start, as might be expected, due to some players leaving and him also wanting to bring in some players of his own to add a different element to the side. The most successful of these imports so far has been the Spaniard Michu. Touted as something of an unknown by a lot of the English-centric media, he was in fact last seasons top scoring midfielder in La Liga, but he was a bargain at £2million. He added to his burgeoning reputation last weekend by bagging a brace to beat Arsenal at the Emirates and push Swansea above the Gunners in the table too. Although that result was very good, they can be frustrated by a more tactically aware side than Arsenal as they do still like to play around, with Michu and fellow new boy Pablo Hernandes given licence to roam.
Norwich have looked every bit a tactically aware side in the last two months under new manager Chris Hughton. They some into this unbeaten in nine matches with a win over Manchester United a stand-out result for them. Since the centre back pairing of Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong have gotten used to each other they have looked a very assured duo and they repel most attacks. The tactical adjustment to see Wes Hoolahan behind Grant Holt and Anthony Pilkington able to cut in from wide has also seen a much swifter attack than under Paul Lambert. It has also seen the goals shared out a lot more with Hoolahan's set piece delivery also adding yet another dimension. I've been very impressed with Norwich of late and think they're being underestimated by the bookmakers at present.
Lay Swansea at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday 1330
I am in Manchester this weekend surrounded by my wonderful girlfriends family, who are all huge Man Utd fans! This being said, my Dad is a dyed in the wool Man City fan and I have always had a soft spot for the Blue side because of this. This leaves me bound to upset someone with this prediction, although I can assure you it is a purely betting led decision. For those who don't want to see me tipping against The Red Devils I would look away now...
Manchester City exited the Champions League this week with their bottoms well and truly spanked. My colleague at work is no admirer of Roberto Mancini to put it mildly, but I had previously defended him slightly because he had improved Mark Hughes team and won the league. I was aware of his previous poor record in European competition with Inter Milan though so I can no longer defend him from that. City were poor in every match they played and deserved to get nothing from their group. However comma in the Premier league they stand unbeaten and seem to be able to get something from every match. This, in my opinion, reflects the regression in quality in the English top flight in the past few seasons, but that's for another day. They are solid enough when Mancini doesn't tinker and certainly possess enough attacking threat to worry any side in England, United included.
Manchester United had already qualified from their Champions League group so took the decision to field a young and inexperienced side who lost at home to Cfr Cluj. This was largely a measure taken to rest key players for the Manchester derby and a chance to pull away from City in the title race. The problem with this is that they haven't looked tired to me particularly, just not good enough in some key areas to comfortably beat the very best. I always criticise their midfield, but for a reason. Michael Carrick has a purpose, but needs a far stronger partner than United currently possess. Antonio Valencia can be effective, but is a one trick pony. Anderson needs some serious fitness advice, although I still think he has talent. Nani appears to be on his way out. Ashley Young is not good enough for a top level side. They are being pulled through matches by Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie too often and this won't keep working. I don't see them being the side to halt City's unbeaten run, although I doubt they'll be blown away as City aren't playing the greatest stuff either of late.
Lay Manchester United at 2.95. 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca, Sunday 1100
Most of you will have noticed a pattern emerging somewhat in my Spanish tipping, namely that I have followed Levante for almost a year now! This is because although they have proven themselves in that time to be the most consistent side outside of the top three, they are still priced like everyone else in the betting. I don't think this is right and I'm ahppy to keep following them, particularly at home where they are exceptionally hard to beat.
Back Levante at 2.05 with Bet365.
Inter Milan v Napoli, Sunday 1945
Just the one from Italy's Serie A as ever this weekend. I've gone for possibly the biggest match though between the two potential challengers to reigning champions Juventus. Inter Milan had been in a great run after a slow start that had seen them rise to second in the table and ending Juventus's long unbeaten run in Turin with a well deserved victory. The young manager Andrea Stramaccioni should take an awful lot of credit for all this as he has proven himself well able to handle the ego's amongst the players and owners of the notoriously unstable club. Unfortunately it seems Inter have decided things were going too well and have chucked a Wesley Sneijder shaped spanner in the works. The Dutchmen has always been a prickly character, but an undoubted talent, and this has shown in his current contract negotiations. Inter desperately want him to take a pay cut and he, understandably, does not want to. This has led to various levels of management criticising him in public and has coincided with a noticeable drop in performances as the players seem distracted. With him also missing from the side Diego Milito's rejuvenation is put on hold with him receiving a much worse supply of balls.
Napoli seem able to get at the leaders of the table, but then falter at the critical moment. To credit the owner and manager though, they have come an awful long way in the past five years. A mixture of investment and the signings and tactics of manager Walter Mazzari have seen them move from a mid-table side to title challengers. And with their best talent often sold on for large profits this is no mean feat. They have so far resisted the temptation to sell star striker Edinson Cavani and I can see why. He is one of a dying breed of strikers who are in the mould of doing things themselves, most now seem to be 'forwards' who prefer to start away from goal and move in. Cavani provides a target and no lack of goals either. Napoli play a tighter game away from home, as can be seen in only five conceded in seven, and I think they can frustrate a failing Inter side.
Lay Inter Milan at 2.4 on Betfair. 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
Stuttgart had what has become a traditional very poor start to the Bundesliga season, but they have managed to turn their form around enough to be in upper mid-table now. They certainly have the talent with players like Vedad Ibisevic and Zdravko Kuzmanovic in the ranks to be making a challenge for European football. It is also to their credit that they stuck with coach Bruno Labbadia as there were certainly calls to remove him after three seasons of poor starts. He may well have taken them as far as he can though so I would expect the calls to mount again at some point. Anyway, they have won the last two matches and should be on something of a high, but with only three clean sheets all season they may well be worried about Schalke's forward line.
As mentioned Schalke have something of a fearsome forward line that is currently not firing on all cylinders and has led to some good profits for followers on here and twitter of late. They have not won in four matches now and there have been murmurings from the squad that they are shattered from a long season last time and now the same again here whilst battling and qualifying in the Champions League on top of the league program. The Xmas break cannot come soon enough for most of the squad. They still look deflated and I'll oppose them once again here.
Back Stuttgart at 2.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz 05, Sunday 1430
Another team I followed for a while last season and have been on lately are Monchengladbach. They have completely revamped their style of play in the absence of last seasons star man Marco Reus and it seems to be beginning to bear fruit. Reus has shown his quality at Dortmund already and Gladback relied heavily on him to sneak wins in matches where they simply defended and gave him the ball. This season has seen them go from 1-0 merchants to possibly the most entertaining side in a very entertaining league. The reason I've liked them recently is that they have tightened up a little at the back soon to add to a more rounded attack. They're unbeaten in three and against a side who don't enjoy their travels.
Mainz have also featured heavily in columns this season and last as they are a fairly reliable side and definitely so at home. They seem well set to feature around the European spots for the next few seasons as they don't rely on any one player, but rather a system of hard work and pressing. This means that as long as they replace players and bring in new bodies who buy into this work ethic they will give every other side a tough match. Unfortunately for them their away form is their achilles heel. They go won two, drawn two and lost four away from home so far and look much more shaky and unwilling to enforce their gameplan on their travels. They meet a side in good nick and will struggle here I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach Draw No Bet at 1.72 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1400
A mid table match up to start us off in this weeks Super Lig. Home form is often all important in some of the more minor leagues around and that is definitely the case for most of the Super Lig. Gaziantepspor are one of these sides who are kept out of danger by a good home record. This season has been no different, although a lot of that is because they throw it all in for three points instead of a draw. This has left them with no draws so far, but rather four wins and three defeats in front of their own fans. They have a healthy eleven goals for them in those matches, and remember it is a very tight division outside of the giants, and only eight conceded too. They're unbeaten in three and looking good at present.
Karabukspor celebrated a brilliant win at Galatasaray a couple of weeks ago, but that performance was very much a one off when looked at with the rest of their form. They have shifted a huge amount of goals away from home so far, eighteen in seven matches is appalling, and find themselves in a relegation scrap. It's a decent attack against a poor defence with home advantage playing well into it.
Back Gaziantepspor at 2.1 with StanJames. 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1700
This one is a bit of a punt so bear with me...
Fener have an excellent home record so far this season and part of this as I see it is due to teams turning up already beaten mentally. This sees them able to attack at will and score plenty of goals. But, this also naturally leaves them exposed at the back to any side that can be bothered to have a go. I see Istanbul BB as such a side. They, along with Mersin Idman, have bucked the home record trend in Turkey in the last six months by actually being better away from home. They attack sides thinking that they can disrupt them and go after a game knowing the home sides probably don't expect it and leave gaps. I'm not sure they'll get anything, but we should see plenty of goals regardless.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1 with William Hill. 2 points.
Week Fifteen
Total - Win 2.35 points.
Week Sixteen
Total - Win 2.3 points.
Running Total - Up 6.39 points.
Music this week from Above Them with Give It Up To Start Again, Leeds based band who are very good live.
Swansea v Norwich, Saturday 1500
Two of last season's promoted sides meet in Wales this weekend. Swansea are under new management with Michael Laudrup now the man in charge and attempting to build on the work Brendan Rodgers did in keeping them up last year. He has had a mixed start, as might be expected, due to some players leaving and him also wanting to bring in some players of his own to add a different element to the side. The most successful of these imports so far has been the Spaniard Michu. Touted as something of an unknown by a lot of the English-centric media, he was in fact last seasons top scoring midfielder in La Liga, but he was a bargain at £2million. He added to his burgeoning reputation last weekend by bagging a brace to beat Arsenal at the Emirates and push Swansea above the Gunners in the table too. Although that result was very good, they can be frustrated by a more tactically aware side than Arsenal as they do still like to play around, with Michu and fellow new boy Pablo Hernandes given licence to roam.
Norwich have looked every bit a tactically aware side in the last two months under new manager Chris Hughton. They some into this unbeaten in nine matches with a win over Manchester United a stand-out result for them. Since the centre back pairing of Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong have gotten used to each other they have looked a very assured duo and they repel most attacks. The tactical adjustment to see Wes Hoolahan behind Grant Holt and Anthony Pilkington able to cut in from wide has also seen a much swifter attack than under Paul Lambert. It has also seen the goals shared out a lot more with Hoolahan's set piece delivery also adding yet another dimension. I've been very impressed with Norwich of late and think they're being underestimated by the bookmakers at present.
Lay Swansea at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday 1330
I am in Manchester this weekend surrounded by my wonderful girlfriends family, who are all huge Man Utd fans! This being said, my Dad is a dyed in the wool Man City fan and I have always had a soft spot for the Blue side because of this. This leaves me bound to upset someone with this prediction, although I can assure you it is a purely betting led decision. For those who don't want to see me tipping against The Red Devils I would look away now...
Manchester City exited the Champions League this week with their bottoms well and truly spanked. My colleague at work is no admirer of Roberto Mancini to put it mildly, but I had previously defended him slightly because he had improved Mark Hughes team and won the league. I was aware of his previous poor record in European competition with Inter Milan though so I can no longer defend him from that. City were poor in every match they played and deserved to get nothing from their group. However comma in the Premier league they stand unbeaten and seem to be able to get something from every match. This, in my opinion, reflects the regression in quality in the English top flight in the past few seasons, but that's for another day. They are solid enough when Mancini doesn't tinker and certainly possess enough attacking threat to worry any side in England, United included.
Manchester United had already qualified from their Champions League group so took the decision to field a young and inexperienced side who lost at home to Cfr Cluj. This was largely a measure taken to rest key players for the Manchester derby and a chance to pull away from City in the title race. The problem with this is that they haven't looked tired to me particularly, just not good enough in some key areas to comfortably beat the very best. I always criticise their midfield, but for a reason. Michael Carrick has a purpose, but needs a far stronger partner than United currently possess. Antonio Valencia can be effective, but is a one trick pony. Anderson needs some serious fitness advice, although I still think he has talent. Nani appears to be on his way out. Ashley Young is not good enough for a top level side. They are being pulled through matches by Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie too often and this won't keep working. I don't see them being the side to halt City's unbeaten run, although I doubt they'll be blown away as City aren't playing the greatest stuff either of late.
Lay Manchester United at 2.95. 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca, Sunday 1100
Most of you will have noticed a pattern emerging somewhat in my Spanish tipping, namely that I have followed Levante for almost a year now! This is because although they have proven themselves in that time to be the most consistent side outside of the top three, they are still priced like everyone else in the betting. I don't think this is right and I'm ahppy to keep following them, particularly at home where they are exceptionally hard to beat.
Back Levante at 2.05 with Bet365.
Inter Milan v Napoli, Sunday 1945
Just the one from Italy's Serie A as ever this weekend. I've gone for possibly the biggest match though between the two potential challengers to reigning champions Juventus. Inter Milan had been in a great run after a slow start that had seen them rise to second in the table and ending Juventus's long unbeaten run in Turin with a well deserved victory. The young manager Andrea Stramaccioni should take an awful lot of credit for all this as he has proven himself well able to handle the ego's amongst the players and owners of the notoriously unstable club. Unfortunately it seems Inter have decided things were going too well and have chucked a Wesley Sneijder shaped spanner in the works. The Dutchmen has always been a prickly character, but an undoubted talent, and this has shown in his current contract negotiations. Inter desperately want him to take a pay cut and he, understandably, does not want to. This has led to various levels of management criticising him in public and has coincided with a noticeable drop in performances as the players seem distracted. With him also missing from the side Diego Milito's rejuvenation is put on hold with him receiving a much worse supply of balls.
Napoli seem able to get at the leaders of the table, but then falter at the critical moment. To credit the owner and manager though, they have come an awful long way in the past five years. A mixture of investment and the signings and tactics of manager Walter Mazzari have seen them move from a mid-table side to title challengers. And with their best talent often sold on for large profits this is no mean feat. They have so far resisted the temptation to sell star striker Edinson Cavani and I can see why. He is one of a dying breed of strikers who are in the mould of doing things themselves, most now seem to be 'forwards' who prefer to start away from goal and move in. Cavani provides a target and no lack of goals either. Napoli play a tighter game away from home, as can be seen in only five conceded in seven, and I think they can frustrate a failing Inter side.
Lay Inter Milan at 2.4 on Betfair. 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
Stuttgart had what has become a traditional very poor start to the Bundesliga season, but they have managed to turn their form around enough to be in upper mid-table now. They certainly have the talent with players like Vedad Ibisevic and Zdravko Kuzmanovic in the ranks to be making a challenge for European football. It is also to their credit that they stuck with coach Bruno Labbadia as there were certainly calls to remove him after three seasons of poor starts. He may well have taken them as far as he can though so I would expect the calls to mount again at some point. Anyway, they have won the last two matches and should be on something of a high, but with only three clean sheets all season they may well be worried about Schalke's forward line.
As mentioned Schalke have something of a fearsome forward line that is currently not firing on all cylinders and has led to some good profits for followers on here and twitter of late. They have not won in four matches now and there have been murmurings from the squad that they are shattered from a long season last time and now the same again here whilst battling and qualifying in the Champions League on top of the league program. The Xmas break cannot come soon enough for most of the squad. They still look deflated and I'll oppose them once again here.
Back Stuttgart at 2.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz 05, Sunday 1430
Another team I followed for a while last season and have been on lately are Monchengladbach. They have completely revamped their style of play in the absence of last seasons star man Marco Reus and it seems to be beginning to bear fruit. Reus has shown his quality at Dortmund already and Gladback relied heavily on him to sneak wins in matches where they simply defended and gave him the ball. This season has seen them go from 1-0 merchants to possibly the most entertaining side in a very entertaining league. The reason I've liked them recently is that they have tightened up a little at the back soon to add to a more rounded attack. They're unbeaten in three and against a side who don't enjoy their travels.
Mainz have also featured heavily in columns this season and last as they are a fairly reliable side and definitely so at home. They seem well set to feature around the European spots for the next few seasons as they don't rely on any one player, but rather a system of hard work and pressing. This means that as long as they replace players and bring in new bodies who buy into this work ethic they will give every other side a tough match. Unfortunately for them their away form is their achilles heel. They go won two, drawn two and lost four away from home so far and look much more shaky and unwilling to enforce their gameplan on their travels. They meet a side in good nick and will struggle here I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach Draw No Bet at 1.72 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1400
A mid table match up to start us off in this weeks Super Lig. Home form is often all important in some of the more minor leagues around and that is definitely the case for most of the Super Lig. Gaziantepspor are one of these sides who are kept out of danger by a good home record. This season has been no different, although a lot of that is because they throw it all in for three points instead of a draw. This has left them with no draws so far, but rather four wins and three defeats in front of their own fans. They have a healthy eleven goals for them in those matches, and remember it is a very tight division outside of the giants, and only eight conceded too. They're unbeaten in three and looking good at present.
Karabukspor celebrated a brilliant win at Galatasaray a couple of weeks ago, but that performance was very much a one off when looked at with the rest of their form. They have shifted a huge amount of goals away from home so far, eighteen in seven matches is appalling, and find themselves in a relegation scrap. It's a decent attack against a poor defence with home advantage playing well into it.
Back Gaziantepspor at 2.1 with StanJames. 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1700
This one is a bit of a punt so bear with me...
Fener have an excellent home record so far this season and part of this as I see it is due to teams turning up already beaten mentally. This sees them able to attack at will and score plenty of goals. But, this also naturally leaves them exposed at the back to any side that can be bothered to have a go. I see Istanbul BB as such a side. They, along with Mersin Idman, have bucked the home record trend in Turkey in the last six months by actually being better away from home. They attack sides thinking that they can disrupt them and go after a game knowing the home sides probably don't expect it and leave gaps. I'm not sure they'll get anything, but we should see plenty of goals regardless.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1 with William Hill. 2 points.
Thursday, 22 November 2012
The Season To Be Jolly...
Last weekend saw some well needed profit which will hopefully put us back in the black before Xmas and with a few weeks to rebuild our bank. Those who follow @TopTopTips on the Twitter will also have so far made some decent extra reddies on the Champions League, which has been very profitable for us this season so far. There has also been good money made on the Europa League and I will be giving out a few more selections for that too.
Week Fourteen
QPR v Southampton - Win 2.06 points.
West Brom v Chelsea - Win 2.04 points.
Deportivo v Levante - Win 1.48 points.
Napoli v AC Milan - Lose 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Freiburg - Lose 2 points.
Monchengladbach v Stuttgart - Win 1.75 points
Eskisehirspor v Fenerbahce - Void.
Antalyaspor v Besiktas - (changed to Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 on Twitter on Saturday) Win 1.8 points.
Total - Win 5.23 points
Running Total - Up 1.74 points.
Music this week comes from Union 13 with The Game.
Aston Villa v Arsenal, Saturday 1730
Aston Villa look like they finally be turning a corner under Paul Lambert after the long, slow fall they have been in since Martin O'Neill's last days and the disastrous reign of Alex McCleish. They're not going to be pushing for European football any time soon with the players at Lambert's disposal, but they do seem to be settling into a system that is capable of giving most sides a tough time. A big part of this has coincided with the return to the side of Steven Ireland. The Irishman was touted as a huge prospect when at Manchester City but a fragile ego seemed to have left him scrabbling around for the odd substitute at both Newcastle and Villa. Lambert has taken him under his wing and restored him to the role behind the striker and he is thriving again. The striker is Belgium's Cristian Benteke and whilst he may not have Darren Bent's ability to squeeze out a goal, he offers far more to the team with his physicality and aerial ability. He currently looks a handful for any opposing side and Arsenal still have a weakness for physical approaches and in the air from set pieces so presumably Lambert will look to exploit this.
Arsenal presently seem to be in a small run themselves. This should be tempered by analysis of the matches though for me. If you watch the North London derby against Tottenham you will see that whilst Spurs had a full side out they came close to scoring three times in fifteen minutes before Emanuel Adebayor's absolutely ridiculous challenge saw him sent off. It's not too much of a stretch in my opinion to think that Spurs would have added to their tally with eleven men and gone on to win that match. Then last night against Montpellier, a side who are struggling in the generally poor Ligue Un in France, they had plenty of possession but failed to make it look threatening for the entire first half. That they eventually won 2-0 was more of a damning verdict on Montpellier than any particular achievement. The three things that have been positive in the last couple of weeks are the form of Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud alongside the return to fitness of Santi Cazorla. Walcott was a constant threat to Spurs and Giroud now has nine goals for the season after finding his feet and the team playing to his strengths. Cazorla has quickly established himself as the metronome of the side that dictates the rhythm and the side seems to only play well when the Spaniard does. If Villa can shackle Cazorla they will greatly disrupt Arsenal's play.
Lay Arsenal at 1.75 on Betfair. 2 points.
Swansea v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
It's a full schedule on Sunday with the Europa League being played midweek. Swansea have had a topsy turvy season so far, which is probably to be expected with a new manager and quite a few new additions to the side. Michael Laudrup shone at Getafe as a manager where he dragged the tiny Spanish side into European competition on a meagre budget, but he then failed miserably at Mallorca under the same restrictions. The jury is definitely still out on him and he will want to make a success of his time in Wales. His side started the season in some style with back to back wins done with no little style and plenty of goals. This could not continue forever and the Swans went through a five game spell without a win. They are not getting outclassed very often though, they are picking up plenty of draws, but they need to improve if they are to avoid getting dragged down the table. They go won two, drew three and only lost one at home so far to show that no side gets an easy game over the border. With players like Michu, Pablo Hernandez and Ki Sung-Yueng in the side that's no great surprise, it is finding a way to get the best out of them every week that will determine Laudrup's success.
Liverpool seem to have found a way of supplying Luis Suarez regularly and it has seen something of an upturn in results for the most part. With the Uruguyan far and away the best player in the current side it is Brendan Rodgers best hope of turning results around to play to his strengths and especially if he wants to hang on to his job long enough to turn things around. Suarez can appear very wasteful at times, and I have criticised him previously for this, but there is probably no player in the division that Liverpool would rather have. He may well be something of a dislikeable character, but that can also be used to motivate him and to draw those around him to the cause of rehabilitating him. For this I will give Rodgers credit. Apart from that though he has failed to convince me his time at Swansea was not a one off success after a dreadful spell at Reading previously. The jury is out and if Swansea can shackle Suarez or he has an off day then Liverpool's odds will look very short.
Back Swansea at 2.62 Draw No Bet at Coral. 2 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Mallorca, Saturday 1500
There's not many inspiring prices this weekend in Spain, and truth be told this is simply the most appealing of what's there. Rayo Vallecano have been very entertaining both this season and last with their commitment to attacking at all times providing plenty of thrills. This can on occasion lead to defeats in matches they are expected to win, but this has happened more away than at home. It also means they don't draw many matches, only one so far this season home or away. They have actually struggled for goals themselves as they lack a finisher in attack and this somewhat damages their chances, but they're up against a pretty uninspiring Mallorca side.
Mallorca currently hover just above the relegation spots and I'd not expect them to pull clear this season, they have every chance of going down too. They don't score enough goals and are absolutely dire when away from home. They have a record of played six, drawn three and lost three away with not a win to their name. They will not be looking forward to this trip at all.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.2 with BetVictor. 1.5 points.
Torino v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
Torino returned to Serie A over the summer and have been something of a mixed bag. They've not been outclassed in any match so far, and have picked up a couple of excellent wins along the way, but they draw too many matches away and don't score enough goals. They've only scored more than one in a match in two games, take these two matches away and their record is scored 5 in eleven. So whilst they obviously can turn it on, I would not be backing them to do so. They have only one win in their last seven matches played and desperately could do with a positive result before all the draws start slipping to defeats.
Fiorentina are probably the surprise package of the Serie A season so far. They appointed Vincenzo Montella over the summer as manager and he brought in no less than nine new players to revamp the side. Many would have expected a side that has been up and down recntly, with a new young manager and lots of new players to possibly struggle to string performances together, but Montella has greatly enhanced his burgeoning reputation by getting results already. They currently lie in third position in the table and look likely to be involved in Europe next year in some capacity. They have won five matches on the bounce both home and away and are the side noone wants to face at the moment with goals coming from all over the pitch. They have to be backed at these odds.
Back Fiorentina at 2.45 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
Mainz have become a semi regular feature in the column as they are a settled side who are hard to beat. This season we've had mixed results with them, but I'm going to take a chance on them again. The reasoning behind this is that they are a very organised side who press teams and look for mistakes to be exploited as they wear the opposition down. For this reason they have had some very impressive results against the best sides in recent years and look destined to feature in European competition again next season. The fact they are out of the Europa League does mean they get a rest on weeks when other sides play their European matches. They have an excellent home record so far this season of played five, won four and lost just one. In this time they've also scored eight goals and only conceded two so far to make it an intimidating place for opposition sides.
Borussia Dortmund have looked better in the Champions League this season after a fairly disappointing showing last year. This does seem to have impacted their league form though, with them often looking tired after a midweek match. This is probably no huge surprise as they rely on pressing teams for ninety minutes and they have had a very tough group to qualify from in the Champions League. They currently sit in fourth position in the Bundesliga and they may have already accepted that they will not be getting a third title in a row with Bayern Munich pulling so far ahead already. With an away record of played six, won two, drawn three and lost one this will probably be the reason they fail in that challenge if it continues. I think they have to be opposed here.
Lay Borussia Dortmund at 1.66 on Betfair. 2 points.
Augsburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Sunday 1630
Augsburg currently sit bottom of the Bundesliga with just one win all season home and away. They struggled after being promoted all of last season and narrowly escaped relegation, but it looks very likely that this year they will return to the Bundesliga II. It is not hard to locate their problems, they don't score nearly enough and concede far too many. They have played twelve matches and only scored eight goals whilst conceding twenty two so far. Their sole win came at home to Werder Bremen on one of the away sides off days that can see them looking as poor as anyone in the division. They have now been beaten by two goals in each of their last three matches too and they look ridiculously underpriced in this.
Monchengladbach have completed a full about turn to be this seasons most exciting side for the neutral with forty one goals scored in matches involving them. This change of approach in the absence of star man Marco Reus has seen mixed results and has them in mid-table currently. These mixed results are perfectly illustrated by a record of two wins, two draws and two losses in both the home and away columns to show they are capable of any result at any time. They were on a run of three unbeaten matches before succumbing 2-1 at home to Stuttgart last weekend and should still fancy their chances against the divisions most awful side.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 3.2 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Gaziantepspor v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1400
First up from the Super Lig is Istanbul BB's trip to Gaziantepspor. Gaziantep have had a few seasons where they made challenges for the European positions before falling away late on in the season. This is not unfamiliar in Turkey where the squad sizes aside from the giants are pretty small and players tire quickly. This season however comma Gaziantep have struggled to gain wins and sit just above the relegation zone desperate for points. They have a record of three wins and three losses at home so far with nine goals scored and seven conceded. This goes to show that they are still capable of beating anyone on their day, but you're gambling on them turning up.
Istanbul BB were another side that has given the big boys something to think about in recent seasons. They had a very good home record two seasons ago that dragged them through and then after Xmas last season they started looking more likely to pick up wins away from home. They currently sit one position above their opponents on Sunday and for them it is their away record that is their strong suit. They have played six, won three and lost three away and similarly to Gazinatep can not be particularly relied upon. Their has been seven goals for and six against in those matches though and I think looking at both sides mixed records and ability to score and conced it has to be a goals bet here.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with Paddy Power. 2.5 points.
Trabzonspor v Eskisehirspor, Monday 1800
Trabzonspor are another side that have featured regularly in the column this season due to the reliability of their results. They are very good at home with four wins, one draw and a solitary loss from six matches, but they still haven't found a regular way of scoring goals. They have scored just eight in those six matches and their strength can be seen in them only conceding three in the same timeframe. That they have managed to get four wins at home is something of a surprise to me as they have not looked entirely convincing to me. The only side they have scored more than one against are the two newly promoted strugglers and this will be much more of a test.
Eskisehirspor fell away horribly last season after a good start and they almost made Europe the season before that too. The issue they had for both seasons was a lack of goals forcing them to eke out numerous one nil victories, but left them susceptible to plenty of draws as they could not pull away from sides. They have actually scored plenty at home this season, but seem to set up differently away and look to shut games down and play for a tight match. This is back to the way they used to play home and away so is not too much of a stretch for the players either as they are well used to it. They only have one win away so far to go with two draws and three losses, but they have not been well beaten in any of them. They're in decent form and Trabzon look a little short to me.
Lay Trabzonspor at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Week Fourteen
QPR v Southampton - Win 2.06 points.
West Brom v Chelsea - Win 2.04 points.
Deportivo v Levante - Win 1.48 points.
Napoli v AC Milan - Lose 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Freiburg - Lose 2 points.
Monchengladbach v Stuttgart - Win 1.75 points
Eskisehirspor v Fenerbahce - Void.
Antalyaspor v Besiktas - (changed to Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 on Twitter on Saturday) Win 1.8 points.
Total - Win 5.23 points
Running Total - Up 1.74 points.
Music this week comes from Union 13 with The Game.
Aston Villa v Arsenal, Saturday 1730
Aston Villa look like they finally be turning a corner under Paul Lambert after the long, slow fall they have been in since Martin O'Neill's last days and the disastrous reign of Alex McCleish. They're not going to be pushing for European football any time soon with the players at Lambert's disposal, but they do seem to be settling into a system that is capable of giving most sides a tough time. A big part of this has coincided with the return to the side of Steven Ireland. The Irishman was touted as a huge prospect when at Manchester City but a fragile ego seemed to have left him scrabbling around for the odd substitute at both Newcastle and Villa. Lambert has taken him under his wing and restored him to the role behind the striker and he is thriving again. The striker is Belgium's Cristian Benteke and whilst he may not have Darren Bent's ability to squeeze out a goal, he offers far more to the team with his physicality and aerial ability. He currently looks a handful for any opposing side and Arsenal still have a weakness for physical approaches and in the air from set pieces so presumably Lambert will look to exploit this.
Arsenal presently seem to be in a small run themselves. This should be tempered by analysis of the matches though for me. If you watch the North London derby against Tottenham you will see that whilst Spurs had a full side out they came close to scoring three times in fifteen minutes before Emanuel Adebayor's absolutely ridiculous challenge saw him sent off. It's not too much of a stretch in my opinion to think that Spurs would have added to their tally with eleven men and gone on to win that match. Then last night against Montpellier, a side who are struggling in the generally poor Ligue Un in France, they had plenty of possession but failed to make it look threatening for the entire first half. That they eventually won 2-0 was more of a damning verdict on Montpellier than any particular achievement. The three things that have been positive in the last couple of weeks are the form of Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud alongside the return to fitness of Santi Cazorla. Walcott was a constant threat to Spurs and Giroud now has nine goals for the season after finding his feet and the team playing to his strengths. Cazorla has quickly established himself as the metronome of the side that dictates the rhythm and the side seems to only play well when the Spaniard does. If Villa can shackle Cazorla they will greatly disrupt Arsenal's play.
Lay Arsenal at 1.75 on Betfair. 2 points.
Swansea v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
It's a full schedule on Sunday with the Europa League being played midweek. Swansea have had a topsy turvy season so far, which is probably to be expected with a new manager and quite a few new additions to the side. Michael Laudrup shone at Getafe as a manager where he dragged the tiny Spanish side into European competition on a meagre budget, but he then failed miserably at Mallorca under the same restrictions. The jury is definitely still out on him and he will want to make a success of his time in Wales. His side started the season in some style with back to back wins done with no little style and plenty of goals. This could not continue forever and the Swans went through a five game spell without a win. They are not getting outclassed very often though, they are picking up plenty of draws, but they need to improve if they are to avoid getting dragged down the table. They go won two, drew three and only lost one at home so far to show that no side gets an easy game over the border. With players like Michu, Pablo Hernandez and Ki Sung-Yueng in the side that's no great surprise, it is finding a way to get the best out of them every week that will determine Laudrup's success.
Liverpool seem to have found a way of supplying Luis Suarez regularly and it has seen something of an upturn in results for the most part. With the Uruguyan far and away the best player in the current side it is Brendan Rodgers best hope of turning results around to play to his strengths and especially if he wants to hang on to his job long enough to turn things around. Suarez can appear very wasteful at times, and I have criticised him previously for this, but there is probably no player in the division that Liverpool would rather have. He may well be something of a dislikeable character, but that can also be used to motivate him and to draw those around him to the cause of rehabilitating him. For this I will give Rodgers credit. Apart from that though he has failed to convince me his time at Swansea was not a one off success after a dreadful spell at Reading previously. The jury is out and if Swansea can shackle Suarez or he has an off day then Liverpool's odds will look very short.
Back Swansea at 2.62 Draw No Bet at Coral. 2 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Mallorca, Saturday 1500
There's not many inspiring prices this weekend in Spain, and truth be told this is simply the most appealing of what's there. Rayo Vallecano have been very entertaining both this season and last with their commitment to attacking at all times providing plenty of thrills. This can on occasion lead to defeats in matches they are expected to win, but this has happened more away than at home. It also means they don't draw many matches, only one so far this season home or away. They have actually struggled for goals themselves as they lack a finisher in attack and this somewhat damages their chances, but they're up against a pretty uninspiring Mallorca side.
Mallorca currently hover just above the relegation spots and I'd not expect them to pull clear this season, they have every chance of going down too. They don't score enough goals and are absolutely dire when away from home. They have a record of played six, drawn three and lost three away with not a win to their name. They will not be looking forward to this trip at all.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.2 with BetVictor. 1.5 points.
Torino v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
Torino returned to Serie A over the summer and have been something of a mixed bag. They've not been outclassed in any match so far, and have picked up a couple of excellent wins along the way, but they draw too many matches away and don't score enough goals. They've only scored more than one in a match in two games, take these two matches away and their record is scored 5 in eleven. So whilst they obviously can turn it on, I would not be backing them to do so. They have only one win in their last seven matches played and desperately could do with a positive result before all the draws start slipping to defeats.
Fiorentina are probably the surprise package of the Serie A season so far. They appointed Vincenzo Montella over the summer as manager and he brought in no less than nine new players to revamp the side. Many would have expected a side that has been up and down recntly, with a new young manager and lots of new players to possibly struggle to string performances together, but Montella has greatly enhanced his burgeoning reputation by getting results already. They currently lie in third position in the table and look likely to be involved in Europe next year in some capacity. They have won five matches on the bounce both home and away and are the side noone wants to face at the moment with goals coming from all over the pitch. They have to be backed at these odds.
Back Fiorentina at 2.45 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
Mainz have become a semi regular feature in the column as they are a settled side who are hard to beat. This season we've had mixed results with them, but I'm going to take a chance on them again. The reasoning behind this is that they are a very organised side who press teams and look for mistakes to be exploited as they wear the opposition down. For this reason they have had some very impressive results against the best sides in recent years and look destined to feature in European competition again next season. The fact they are out of the Europa League does mean they get a rest on weeks when other sides play their European matches. They have an excellent home record so far this season of played five, won four and lost just one. In this time they've also scored eight goals and only conceded two so far to make it an intimidating place for opposition sides.
Borussia Dortmund have looked better in the Champions League this season after a fairly disappointing showing last year. This does seem to have impacted their league form though, with them often looking tired after a midweek match. This is probably no huge surprise as they rely on pressing teams for ninety minutes and they have had a very tough group to qualify from in the Champions League. They currently sit in fourth position in the Bundesliga and they may have already accepted that they will not be getting a third title in a row with Bayern Munich pulling so far ahead already. With an away record of played six, won two, drawn three and lost one this will probably be the reason they fail in that challenge if it continues. I think they have to be opposed here.
Lay Borussia Dortmund at 1.66 on Betfair. 2 points.
Augsburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Sunday 1630
Augsburg currently sit bottom of the Bundesliga with just one win all season home and away. They struggled after being promoted all of last season and narrowly escaped relegation, but it looks very likely that this year they will return to the Bundesliga II. It is not hard to locate their problems, they don't score nearly enough and concede far too many. They have played twelve matches and only scored eight goals whilst conceding twenty two so far. Their sole win came at home to Werder Bremen on one of the away sides off days that can see them looking as poor as anyone in the division. They have now been beaten by two goals in each of their last three matches too and they look ridiculously underpriced in this.
Monchengladbach have completed a full about turn to be this seasons most exciting side for the neutral with forty one goals scored in matches involving them. This change of approach in the absence of star man Marco Reus has seen mixed results and has them in mid-table currently. These mixed results are perfectly illustrated by a record of two wins, two draws and two losses in both the home and away columns to show they are capable of any result at any time. They were on a run of three unbeaten matches before succumbing 2-1 at home to Stuttgart last weekend and should still fancy their chances against the divisions most awful side.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 3.2 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Gaziantepspor v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1400
First up from the Super Lig is Istanbul BB's trip to Gaziantepspor. Gaziantep have had a few seasons where they made challenges for the European positions before falling away late on in the season. This is not unfamiliar in Turkey where the squad sizes aside from the giants are pretty small and players tire quickly. This season however comma Gaziantep have struggled to gain wins and sit just above the relegation zone desperate for points. They have a record of three wins and three losses at home so far with nine goals scored and seven conceded. This goes to show that they are still capable of beating anyone on their day, but you're gambling on them turning up.
Istanbul BB were another side that has given the big boys something to think about in recent seasons. They had a very good home record two seasons ago that dragged them through and then after Xmas last season they started looking more likely to pick up wins away from home. They currently sit one position above their opponents on Sunday and for them it is their away record that is their strong suit. They have played six, won three and lost three away and similarly to Gazinatep can not be particularly relied upon. Their has been seven goals for and six against in those matches though and I think looking at both sides mixed records and ability to score and conced it has to be a goals bet here.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with Paddy Power. 2.5 points.
Trabzonspor v Eskisehirspor, Monday 1800
Trabzonspor are another side that have featured regularly in the column this season due to the reliability of their results. They are very good at home with four wins, one draw and a solitary loss from six matches, but they still haven't found a regular way of scoring goals. They have scored just eight in those six matches and their strength can be seen in them only conceding three in the same timeframe. That they have managed to get four wins at home is something of a surprise to me as they have not looked entirely convincing to me. The only side they have scored more than one against are the two newly promoted strugglers and this will be much more of a test.
Eskisehirspor fell away horribly last season after a good start and they almost made Europe the season before that too. The issue they had for both seasons was a lack of goals forcing them to eke out numerous one nil victories, but left them susceptible to plenty of draws as they could not pull away from sides. They have actually scored plenty at home this season, but seem to set up differently away and look to shut games down and play for a tight match. This is back to the way they used to play home and away so is not too much of a stretch for the players either as they are well used to it. They only have one win away so far to go with two draws and three losses, but they have not been well beaten in any of them. They're in decent form and Trabzon look a little short to me.
Lay Trabzonspor at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Thursday, 15 November 2012
Another Dull Midweek...
International friendlies, boooorrriiinnnggg. Thank the lord for Zlatan Ibrahomovic. The giant Swede once again showed that whilst he may not be on Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo's level, he certainly inhabits the level below. Other than that there's been exceptionally little action so straight to totting up last weekend.
Week Thirteen
Everton v Sunderland - Win 1.59 points.
Chelsea v Liverpool - Lose 2.5 points.
Espanyol v Osasuna - Lose 1.5 points.
Levante v Real Madrid - Lose 1 point.
Atalanta v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg - Win 1.6 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Antalyaspor - Void.
Totals - Lose 6.8 points.
Running Total - Down 3.49 points.
Musical accompaniment this week from The Ramones with Beat On The Brat.
QPR v Southampton, Saturday 1500
It's a funny week in the Premier League for me this week as I think you could honestly make a case for all the favourites being a bit short priced. Obviously though some are more than others and this one screams out at me. I actually went to watch QPR play Reading in the League Cup when they somehow threw away a lead twice and lost 3-2 at home. They looked as dreadful that night as the write ups on their performances would have you believe. I'm no fan of Mark Hughes as a manager to begin with, he did a creditable job with Wales and Blackburn although I don't think they justify his opinion of himself. He has spent a considerable amount of money bringing some big names to Loftus Road and has yet to find a way to get a performance out of them that deserves a win. The defence is a huge issue, they look thoroughly disorganised and every side will get chances against them at some stage. Julio Cesar was brought in as a big name goalkeeper, but I think he's at least two seasons past his peak and is not giving any confidence to those in front of him. In attack Junior Hoilett and Djibril Cisse will always cause a side problems with their direct running and pace, but neither player is looking confident in front of goal so as well as shipping too many they are not scoring enough either.
Southampton have shot through the divisions under manager Nigel Adkins and have looked unsurprisingly shaky this term so far. They do look a lot more threatening in front of goal than their opponents, but possibly have the worst defence in the entire division. They have conceded twenty nine goals already in just eleven matches, nine more than their nearest challengers, and when you look at the personnel it is no real shock. Kelvin Davis is a reliable goalkeeper below the top division but has previously shown he is not up to it in the Premier League. The full backs Nathaniel Clyne and Maya Yoshida are actually good going forward, but are both poor positionally when defending and leave the team exposed. Jose Fonte and Jos Hooiveld in the centre of defence are simply not top level players. Their best chance would appear to be attacking and this is what they do. Morgan Schneiderlin, Steven Davis, Adam Lallana and Gaston Ramirez are all attack minded midfielders and they support Jay Rodriguez and Rickie Lambert who are both capable of causing problems. QPR look short priced for a side there to be attacked and having trouble scoring.
Lay QPR at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
West Brom v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
The other match that looks the standout lay to me is Chelsea away at the seasons over-achievers West Brom. Since appointing ex-coach of both Chelsea and Liverpool, Steve Clarke, as manager West Brom have performed exceptionally well. Clarke was renowned for his work with defences at both the aforementioned clubs so it is no surprise to see the Baggies are tactically set up well at the back and keep chances given at a minimum. Perhaps the surprise has been that Clarke has got the best out of forwards Shane Long and Peter Odemwingie as well as loan signing Roman Lukaku. Both Long and Lukaku use their physical presence and work rate to unsettle defences and if Lukaku plays he will surely want to show Chelsea they should have given him more of a chance. Odemwingie is a personal favourite player with an unpredictability that sees him almost unplayable when on form. The midfield is again solid with free transfer Claudio Jacob again showing that Clarke is also a keen judge of a player.
Chelsea have come off the rails slightly of late with no impressive performances in their last three matches in all competitions. Firstly they were beaten 3-2 late on in the tempestuous match against Man United, then they only beat Shakhtar Donetsk late on at home in the Champions League before drawing at home last week with a poor Liverpool side. They also managed to lose captain John Terry in the Liverpool match which will hurt them. Whilst he may have his faults as a person and a player, he is undeniably the glue that holds the side together. The rest of the centre backs like David Luiz and Gary Cahill all have their plus points, but all of them look better next to Terry with his organisational skills. The new Chelsea's strength is their three forwards Juan Mata, Oscar and Eden Hazard. When any two of these three are on form they will create chances. The other issue they have though is that Fernando Torres still does not convert enough of these and looks very unlikely to ever rediscover the player that was possibly the league's best when at Liverpool. Chelsea look short in a tough away match.
Lay Chelsea at 1.98 on Betfair. 2 points.
Deportivo v Levante, Sunday 1100
Last weekends punt was definitely laying Real Madrid away at Levante, and we almost got it up. In a match played in awful conditions Levante again made it difficult for the opposition with constant running and no little physical efforts either. The Valencian's are not pretty or tricksy by a long chalk, but they are a reliable team in a league full of inconsistency. You can almost be certain they will be tough to beat and anyone who does beat them will have earned it, as giants Real found out.
Deportivo returned to the Primera over the summer, but sadly the financial issues brought on over a decade ago still plague the club. In a division where crippling debt is the norm this is no huge disadvantage, but they have not signed well with what little they have and look likely to head back to the Segunda. They have scored plenty of goals in the odd match, but they are also very capable of shipping them too. Before last weekend the problem seemed to be that they could not motivate themselves sufficiently against the smaller sides and were not picking up points in matches they would have targeted to. This will not aid them against Levnate and I think they're way too short at almost even money.
Lay Deportivo La Coruna at 2.05 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Napoli v AC Milan, Saturday 1945
The team that benefitted most from Serie A's drop off in quality amongst the traditional giants has definitely been Napoli. The Southern side have always been one of the best supported sides in the country but have had to start from way down the pyramid after some huge financial difficulties. Now they are back in Serie A they have steadily built a side that now always looks likely to be in the Champions League positions. An awful lot of credit for this should go to manager Walter Mazzari who has a knack of picking up South American's for bargain prices and getting the best out of his squad. They currently still have Edinson Cavani as the focal point of the attack ably supported by Marik Hamsik and Goran Pandev. These three possess pace, flair, power and are all willing to work hard and make a threatening trio for any side to face. They had a small stumble in not winning in two matches, but set that right with a fantastic 4-2 away win against Genoa last weekend.
AC Milan look likely to continue their fall from grace after selling or releasing all their best players over the summer. Clearly the biggest losses to the side were the defender Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic both of whom were sold to newly rich Paris St Germain. Throw in the releases of senior players like Clarence Seedorf, Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo last season and you have a side stripped of it's spine. The likes of Kevin Prince Boateng and youngster Stephen El Sharaawy are now the men being relied upon to pull the team through and they're nowhere near the level of their predecessors. El haraawy has been the star man this season with his direct running and goals possibly the only bright spark for fans with Boateng not doing much at all. I can't see them getting anything from their long trip.
Back Napoli at 1.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Freiburg, Saturday 1430
Hannover have featured a few times in the column this season and last due to their position as a regular European team now. Whilst other sides constantly chop and change players and managers in the search for a magic formula that reaps instant success, they have stuck with largely the same names and progressed. Since the manager Mirko Slomka was appointed in late 2009 they have gradually grown into a side capable of beating anyone in the Bundesliga. They are particularly good at home with a record of won three, drawn two and only lost one at home this season so far. They have conceded more than in previous seasons, but have added an attacking threat that negates this. They are in fact the second highest scorers behind Bayern Munich. The two African forwards Didier Ya Konan and Mame Bame Diouf have both looked threatening and after a rough few matches in October they are now two wins on the bounce.
Freiburg have established themselves as a regular fixture in the top flight, but are unlikely to make a push for European qualification. First up for them is always to avoid relegation places and they currently sit in mid-table, where I would expect to see them at seasons end. Away from home they try to shut up shop and this can be seen in only conceding five goals in five away matches, but only scoring four in the same games has seen them only getting a sole win. They will be fully tested by Hannover's attack in this one and I don't expect them to repel them forever.
Back Hannover at 2.05 with Stan James.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Stuttgart, Saturday 1430
Last season I followed Monchengladbach often due to their ability to keep it tight at the back and rely upon Marco Reus to open up opposition defences. This served me well, but this season with Reus gone their tactics have had to change. Having been the 1-0 kings it is something of a shock to see them involved in matches with scorelines of 5-0, 2-4 and 3-2 already this season. It seems that they are tryign to make up for Reus's departure by involving more players in the forward positions, but naturally this leaves them with less bodies in defence. The last three matches have see two wins sandwiching a draw with Freiburg and see them possibly settling into some sort of system. That system does seem to have room for plenty of goals though.
Stuttgart got off to a terrible start to the season, but have looked better of late. They had won three out of five in an unbeaten run before losing 4-2 at home to a good Hannover side last weekend. This has seen them pulling clear of the relegation spots to a more comfortable mid-table position and I would expect them to steadily climb the table and again make a push for European football. They are playing well enough and scoring goals again so I would think this match has every chance of being a thriller.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.7 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Eskisehirspor v Fenerbahce, Saturday 1700
Another side I keenly followed last season was Eskisehispor due to their ability to defend very well and nick wins. This has been their modus operandi for the past few years with sides built from the back relying on the forwards to have enough about them to turn clean sheets into wins. This season though they have much more of a goal threat which sees them as joint highest scorers at home alongside reigning champions and league leaders Galatasaray. They have fourteen goals in five home matches which has seen them win four and lose one in that time. In fact, the only match they have lost at home was on the opening day when they were caught cold by Akhisar late on to lose 1-0. They are probably the most consistent side besides the big boys and will definitely give any side a tough match.
Fenerbahce have had a mixed start, but have seemingly finally discovered something resembling form. This has mainly been due to them overpowering the smaller sides at home though and should be taken with this in mind. Away from home they have only won one, drawn three and lost one whilst scoring only four goals and conceding five. This would appear to show they value not losing far more than winning whilst they are still trying to establish their best form. This inviting a team on who have scored so many goals at home is definitely enough for me to oppose them at the prices.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.05 Draw No Bet at StanJames. 2 points.
Antalyaspor v Besiktas, Sunday 1700
Antalyaspor are my team to follow in the Super Lig of late. I watched them overpower Fenerbahce in Istanbul three matches ago and come away deserved 3-1 winners and they are now unbeaten in six matches. This run has put them in second position in the league behind Galatasaray and they thoroughly deserve it. They are well drilled in defence and are thrilling on the counter attack with striker Lamine Diarra in the form of his life they always pose a threat. Diarra is strong enough to hold the ball up and let others join or capable of rolling his man and getting a shot off as he showed twice against Fener. Whilst they drew 1-1 last weekend they should be refreshed after the international break for this one and back to their best.
Besiktas are as inconsistent as ever, and they seem to enjoy making a fool of me when I oppose them. The midfielder Manuel Fernandes seems to be the only one of their big names that puts in consistently excellent performances with the rest picking and choosing their moments. This has seen them sitting in eight position in the table and they will need to somehow settle into a run to progress any higher up. They are unbeaten in their last four matches, but have been conceding goals whilst doing this and now come up against a side who have been on the very top of their game. Generally the physical stuff intimidates Besiktas players and Antalya will be looking to impose themselves.
Back Antalyaspor at 2.35 with SportingBet. 2 points.
Week Thirteen
Everton v Sunderland - Win 1.59 points.
Chelsea v Liverpool - Lose 2.5 points.
Espanyol v Osasuna - Lose 1.5 points.
Levante v Real Madrid - Lose 1 point.
Atalanta v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg - Win 1.6 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Antalyaspor - Void.
Totals - Lose 6.8 points.
Running Total - Down 3.49 points.
Musical accompaniment this week from The Ramones with Beat On The Brat.
QPR v Southampton, Saturday 1500
It's a funny week in the Premier League for me this week as I think you could honestly make a case for all the favourites being a bit short priced. Obviously though some are more than others and this one screams out at me. I actually went to watch QPR play Reading in the League Cup when they somehow threw away a lead twice and lost 3-2 at home. They looked as dreadful that night as the write ups on their performances would have you believe. I'm no fan of Mark Hughes as a manager to begin with, he did a creditable job with Wales and Blackburn although I don't think they justify his opinion of himself. He has spent a considerable amount of money bringing some big names to Loftus Road and has yet to find a way to get a performance out of them that deserves a win. The defence is a huge issue, they look thoroughly disorganised and every side will get chances against them at some stage. Julio Cesar was brought in as a big name goalkeeper, but I think he's at least two seasons past his peak and is not giving any confidence to those in front of him. In attack Junior Hoilett and Djibril Cisse will always cause a side problems with their direct running and pace, but neither player is looking confident in front of goal so as well as shipping too many they are not scoring enough either.
Southampton have shot through the divisions under manager Nigel Adkins and have looked unsurprisingly shaky this term so far. They do look a lot more threatening in front of goal than their opponents, but possibly have the worst defence in the entire division. They have conceded twenty nine goals already in just eleven matches, nine more than their nearest challengers, and when you look at the personnel it is no real shock. Kelvin Davis is a reliable goalkeeper below the top division but has previously shown he is not up to it in the Premier League. The full backs Nathaniel Clyne and Maya Yoshida are actually good going forward, but are both poor positionally when defending and leave the team exposed. Jose Fonte and Jos Hooiveld in the centre of defence are simply not top level players. Their best chance would appear to be attacking and this is what they do. Morgan Schneiderlin, Steven Davis, Adam Lallana and Gaston Ramirez are all attack minded midfielders and they support Jay Rodriguez and Rickie Lambert who are both capable of causing problems. QPR look short priced for a side there to be attacked and having trouble scoring.
Lay QPR at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
West Brom v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
The other match that looks the standout lay to me is Chelsea away at the seasons over-achievers West Brom. Since appointing ex-coach of both Chelsea and Liverpool, Steve Clarke, as manager West Brom have performed exceptionally well. Clarke was renowned for his work with defences at both the aforementioned clubs so it is no surprise to see the Baggies are tactically set up well at the back and keep chances given at a minimum. Perhaps the surprise has been that Clarke has got the best out of forwards Shane Long and Peter Odemwingie as well as loan signing Roman Lukaku. Both Long and Lukaku use their physical presence and work rate to unsettle defences and if Lukaku plays he will surely want to show Chelsea they should have given him more of a chance. Odemwingie is a personal favourite player with an unpredictability that sees him almost unplayable when on form. The midfield is again solid with free transfer Claudio Jacob again showing that Clarke is also a keen judge of a player.
Chelsea have come off the rails slightly of late with no impressive performances in their last three matches in all competitions. Firstly they were beaten 3-2 late on in the tempestuous match against Man United, then they only beat Shakhtar Donetsk late on at home in the Champions League before drawing at home last week with a poor Liverpool side. They also managed to lose captain John Terry in the Liverpool match which will hurt them. Whilst he may have his faults as a person and a player, he is undeniably the glue that holds the side together. The rest of the centre backs like David Luiz and Gary Cahill all have their plus points, but all of them look better next to Terry with his organisational skills. The new Chelsea's strength is their three forwards Juan Mata, Oscar and Eden Hazard. When any two of these three are on form they will create chances. The other issue they have though is that Fernando Torres still does not convert enough of these and looks very unlikely to ever rediscover the player that was possibly the league's best when at Liverpool. Chelsea look short in a tough away match.
Lay Chelsea at 1.98 on Betfair. 2 points.
Deportivo v Levante, Sunday 1100
Last weekends punt was definitely laying Real Madrid away at Levante, and we almost got it up. In a match played in awful conditions Levante again made it difficult for the opposition with constant running and no little physical efforts either. The Valencian's are not pretty or tricksy by a long chalk, but they are a reliable team in a league full of inconsistency. You can almost be certain they will be tough to beat and anyone who does beat them will have earned it, as giants Real found out.
Deportivo returned to the Primera over the summer, but sadly the financial issues brought on over a decade ago still plague the club. In a division where crippling debt is the norm this is no huge disadvantage, but they have not signed well with what little they have and look likely to head back to the Segunda. They have scored plenty of goals in the odd match, but they are also very capable of shipping them too. Before last weekend the problem seemed to be that they could not motivate themselves sufficiently against the smaller sides and were not picking up points in matches they would have targeted to. This will not aid them against Levnate and I think they're way too short at almost even money.
Lay Deportivo La Coruna at 2.05 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Napoli v AC Milan, Saturday 1945
The team that benefitted most from Serie A's drop off in quality amongst the traditional giants has definitely been Napoli. The Southern side have always been one of the best supported sides in the country but have had to start from way down the pyramid after some huge financial difficulties. Now they are back in Serie A they have steadily built a side that now always looks likely to be in the Champions League positions. An awful lot of credit for this should go to manager Walter Mazzari who has a knack of picking up South American's for bargain prices and getting the best out of his squad. They currently still have Edinson Cavani as the focal point of the attack ably supported by Marik Hamsik and Goran Pandev. These three possess pace, flair, power and are all willing to work hard and make a threatening trio for any side to face. They had a small stumble in not winning in two matches, but set that right with a fantastic 4-2 away win against Genoa last weekend.
AC Milan look likely to continue their fall from grace after selling or releasing all their best players over the summer. Clearly the biggest losses to the side were the defender Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic both of whom were sold to newly rich Paris St Germain. Throw in the releases of senior players like Clarence Seedorf, Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo last season and you have a side stripped of it's spine. The likes of Kevin Prince Boateng and youngster Stephen El Sharaawy are now the men being relied upon to pull the team through and they're nowhere near the level of their predecessors. El haraawy has been the star man this season with his direct running and goals possibly the only bright spark for fans with Boateng not doing much at all. I can't see them getting anything from their long trip.
Back Napoli at 1.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Freiburg, Saturday 1430
Hannover have featured a few times in the column this season and last due to their position as a regular European team now. Whilst other sides constantly chop and change players and managers in the search for a magic formula that reaps instant success, they have stuck with largely the same names and progressed. Since the manager Mirko Slomka was appointed in late 2009 they have gradually grown into a side capable of beating anyone in the Bundesliga. They are particularly good at home with a record of won three, drawn two and only lost one at home this season so far. They have conceded more than in previous seasons, but have added an attacking threat that negates this. They are in fact the second highest scorers behind Bayern Munich. The two African forwards Didier Ya Konan and Mame Bame Diouf have both looked threatening and after a rough few matches in October they are now two wins on the bounce.
Freiburg have established themselves as a regular fixture in the top flight, but are unlikely to make a push for European qualification. First up for them is always to avoid relegation places and they currently sit in mid-table, where I would expect to see them at seasons end. Away from home they try to shut up shop and this can be seen in only conceding five goals in five away matches, but only scoring four in the same games has seen them only getting a sole win. They will be fully tested by Hannover's attack in this one and I don't expect them to repel them forever.
Back Hannover at 2.05 with Stan James.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Stuttgart, Saturday 1430
Last season I followed Monchengladbach often due to their ability to keep it tight at the back and rely upon Marco Reus to open up opposition defences. This served me well, but this season with Reus gone their tactics have had to change. Having been the 1-0 kings it is something of a shock to see them involved in matches with scorelines of 5-0, 2-4 and 3-2 already this season. It seems that they are tryign to make up for Reus's departure by involving more players in the forward positions, but naturally this leaves them with less bodies in defence. The last three matches have see two wins sandwiching a draw with Freiburg and see them possibly settling into some sort of system. That system does seem to have room for plenty of goals though.
Stuttgart got off to a terrible start to the season, but have looked better of late. They had won three out of five in an unbeaten run before losing 4-2 at home to a good Hannover side last weekend. This has seen them pulling clear of the relegation spots to a more comfortable mid-table position and I would expect them to steadily climb the table and again make a push for European football. They are playing well enough and scoring goals again so I would think this match has every chance of being a thriller.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.7 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Eskisehirspor v Fenerbahce, Saturday 1700
Another side I keenly followed last season was Eskisehispor due to their ability to defend very well and nick wins. This has been their modus operandi for the past few years with sides built from the back relying on the forwards to have enough about them to turn clean sheets into wins. This season though they have much more of a goal threat which sees them as joint highest scorers at home alongside reigning champions and league leaders Galatasaray. They have fourteen goals in five home matches which has seen them win four and lose one in that time. In fact, the only match they have lost at home was on the opening day when they were caught cold by Akhisar late on to lose 1-0. They are probably the most consistent side besides the big boys and will definitely give any side a tough match.
Fenerbahce have had a mixed start, but have seemingly finally discovered something resembling form. This has mainly been due to them overpowering the smaller sides at home though and should be taken with this in mind. Away from home they have only won one, drawn three and lost one whilst scoring only four goals and conceding five. This would appear to show they value not losing far more than winning whilst they are still trying to establish their best form. This inviting a team on who have scored so many goals at home is definitely enough for me to oppose them at the prices.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.05 Draw No Bet at StanJames. 2 points.
Antalyaspor v Besiktas, Sunday 1700
Antalyaspor are my team to follow in the Super Lig of late. I watched them overpower Fenerbahce in Istanbul three matches ago and come away deserved 3-1 winners and they are now unbeaten in six matches. This run has put them in second position in the league behind Galatasaray and they thoroughly deserve it. They are well drilled in defence and are thrilling on the counter attack with striker Lamine Diarra in the form of his life they always pose a threat. Diarra is strong enough to hold the ball up and let others join or capable of rolling his man and getting a shot off as he showed twice against Fener. Whilst they drew 1-1 last weekend they should be refreshed after the international break for this one and back to their best.
Besiktas are as inconsistent as ever, and they seem to enjoy making a fool of me when I oppose them. The midfielder Manuel Fernandes seems to be the only one of their big names that puts in consistently excellent performances with the rest picking and choosing their moments. This has seen them sitting in eight position in the table and they will need to somehow settle into a run to progress any higher up. They are unbeaten in their last four matches, but have been conceding goals whilst doing this and now come up against a side who have been on the very top of their game. Generally the physical stuff intimidates Besiktas players and Antalya will be looking to impose themselves.
Back Antalyaspor at 2.35 with SportingBet. 2 points.
Thursday, 8 November 2012
Returning To Humanity...
After a very hard weekend in Krakow last week I am back and just about human enough to put this together. Turns out I had a pretty good return from the last round of matches and will be hoping to continue this and once again build our bank back up after the nightmare of a fortnight ago.
Week Twelve
Man Utd v Arsenal - win 2.1 points.
Sunderland v Aston Villa - win 0.95 points.
Granada v Athletic Bilbao - win 0.95 points.
Fiorentina v Cagliari - win 1.63 points.
Hamburg v Bayern Munich - lose 1 point.
Werder Bremen v Mainz 05 - lose 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Elazigspor - lose 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Trabzonspor - win 3.2 points.
Total - up 1.63 points.
Running Total - up 3.31 points.
Music this week from my current favourites Time Again with Movin' On.
Everton v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
There could be an argument to say that so far this season Everton are the most improved side in the division. Last season saw one of their famous early slumps mean that their later form could not push them to challenge for the Champions League places, but this season they went off like a rocket. Whilst they are still well short of having a squad large enough to make a realistic challenge for the title, their starting eleven is a match for anyone in the Premier League. The two players that were the catalyst last season were Nikola Jelavic and the returning Steven Pienaar. They added the creativity and the goals that changed them from functional to a very good side. They have been joined over the summer by Kevin Mirallas and with Tim Cahill leaving Marouane Fellaini has been pushed further forward to become a pivot for the rest of the side. This has made them into quite an attacking force, which allayed to their always formidable defence should see them pushing for a top four position.
Sunderland could well be the most disappointing side in the league so far. I've been saying that I think Martin O'Neill's tactics are massively outdated since his spell at Aston Villa and it looks like the same thing is happening in the north. So far this season they have only had twelve shots on target in total and only Steven Fletcher has scored for them apart from a Demba Ba own goal. The main problem I see with O'Neill's tactics are that he completely sets a side up to defend from kick off and gives his one striker one player capable of unlocking a defence to play with. When this one player is out of form then the goals dry up, as they have so far. Stephen Sessegnon was very good last season, but for whatever reason this time out he looks jaded. This has left Fletcher to create chances for himself or wait for set-plays for chances. It is to his credit he has done so well, but no other player in the current side is playing well at all.
Back Everton at 1.53 with Ladbrokes. 3 points.
Chelsea v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
Arguably the 'big' match in terms of neutral interest this weekend sees Liverpool travelling to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea fell off the top of the Premier League when losing the hotly contested match with Manchester United two weeks ago. Whilst the decisons from that match were without doubt a bit off, Chelsea probably didn't deserve to win either. Alex Ferguson set his side up to attack and therefore go after Chelsea's weakest spot and got that completely right. Fortunately for Chelsea there is no other side in the Premier League with the wealth of attacking options that United have and they should continue to push back for the title. The attacking triumvirate of Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Oscar who play behind Fernando Torres are definitely the best forwards in the division and if they had a better striker than Fernando Torres to play off they would probably blow sides away every week. Expect them to bring this player in in January or next summer.
Liverpool have had their worst start to a league season since 1903 under Brendan Rodgers. The ex-Swansea manager is being given time as it is clear that he is trying to change the style of play at Liverpool with very little investment compared to his predecessors. Unfortunately there are the beginnings of those familiar rumblings of discontent as it is also clear that the current squad is not able to get results in this style. The major issue is the forward players are just not good enough except for Luis Suarez. Suarez himself bears this opinion out most matches with his clear distrust of those around him by trying to do everything himself and shooting on sight whenever a chance presents itself. Sometimes this does come off and he looks a world beater, but all too often he could do with some help. There is a lot of hope being placed in Jonjo Shelvey and Raheem Sterling, and they do look fine prospects, but to throw them into a side fans expect to be challenging for European football is too much too soon for them.
Back Chelsea at 2.0 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Espanyol v Osasuna, Saturday 1700
I'm going to go for two from Spain's Primera Liga this weekend, although the next one up will be something of a long odds punt. This one is between two of the sides currently struggling in the league, although Espanyol seem to be turning their form around. They stand unbeaten in their last four matches and in such a tight division one more win could well see them in mid-table. This is one of the things I dislike about betting on Spanish football that because the big two squeeze so much of the money and best players away from everyone else it becomes a free for all for the rest barring one or two every season. The thing to do seems to be to follow the mini runs of form and try to take advantage.
Osasuna have been terrible so far and only have five points thanks to a win and two draw from five at home. They have relied upon this home form in previous seasons as they have a physical style and are aided by a small and raucous set of fans backing them to aid them getting results. They have lost five from five away and I see no reason this is going to improve this weekend.
Back Espanyol at 1.95 with Coral. 1.5 points.
Levante v Real Madrid, Sunday 2030
This is my aforementioned punt. Levante managed to hover around the Champions League spots all of last season and eventually ended up in the Europa League this season. This is no small achievement for a club who are permanently broke, play in a dilapidated old ground and have plenty of players the wrong side of thirty. However, they have been moulded into a formidable team who are more than capable of getting results. They have four wins and one draw with no losses at their home ground so far.
Real Madrid may not admit it, but I would see them already turning their focus away from the league title they won last year in search of the elusive Champions League trophy they are desperate to win once again. With Barcelona looking all but unbeatable in the league this should be no surprise. They have looked plenty beatable away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two so far and I think they're worth opposing.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.3 on Betfair. 1 point.
Atalanta v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Atalanta have improved considerably in the past couple of seasons and a lot of it is down to home form. This season they go three wins and two losses from five at home to actually have them above AC Milan in the table. The problem they have had that has stopped getting above mid-table has been a lack of goals. For those three wins they have only scored and five goals and have managed to concede seven at home to actually have them in negative goal difference from what is, on paper, a good record. This is because they seem to be capable of beating everyone below them, but really struggle when up against a good side. This is no bad thing for the club, but will see them not looking forward to this fixture at all.
Inter Milan initially seemed to struggle for consistency under their young manager Andrea Stramaccioni, but are now flying. They actually ended Juventus's amazing unbeaten run of league matches last weekend in Turin after going behind. The manager seems completely secure in his own ability and this leads to him making some astute substitutions and tactical changes not brought on by panic when things are not going their way. He has also seemingly managed to restore the confidence of striker Diego Milito who was previously so impressive when Inter won the treble under Jose Mourinho and does have all the necessary attributes of a top level striker. He has now got four in his last three matches. With Inter winning every away match this season I think their price is worth backing here.
Back Inter Milan at 2.25 with StanJames. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg, Friday 1930
Last weekend we were undone by a very late Werder Bremen goal giving them victory over a very good Mainz side. With this in mind I think they are still worth following as I still think they are the best of the rest in the Bundesliga. An awful lot of the credit for this should go to manager Thomas Tuchel. He has a system which has the team pressing from the front and trying to starve the opposition of the ball and force them into mistakes. This works against even the best sides due to the fitness and discipline of the players as well as having a settled team who all rely on each other working just as hard. The additon of striker Adam Szalai has added the dimension of goals too and they now look a side capable of again qualifying for Europe.
Nurnberg have shown signs of improvement lately, although that is compared to wretched early form. They got a win last week, but this was against the equally poor Wolfsburg in a 1-0 home win, it should also be taken into account that Wolfsburg have been poor away for around eighteen months. That still stands as their only win of the season and considering the opposition I would not be keen to be with them until they can put a few good performances together in a row.
Back Mainz 05 at 1.8 with Coral. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Friday 1800
Last season saw the Super Lig ending with Sivasspor looking like they could make a serious push for European football this season, but that has not come to pass. Strangely enough they seem to be struggling for goals after two years of being a seriously attacking side. This seems to have been a tactical decision to start trying to keep goals out and allay that to their previous attacking talent to make a great all round side. Sadly their forwards have been completely off colour and the definitely improved defence has led to lots of draws at home. They have an entirely symetrical home form table at the moment with one win, three draws and one loss with seven goals both for and against. Up against another side who have a tight defence this will be difficult.
As mentioned Eskisehirspor seem to have recovered their defensive solidity this season after a very poor end to last. They are traditonally one of the stronger sides outside of the Istanbul trio and currently sit in third position in the table. Whereas previously they relied upon plenty of tight victories they have been blowing sides away at home so far with fourteen goals for them at home actually being a league leading total. They go one win, two draw and two losses away though with only seven scored and eight conceded. I think this is worth split stakes.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 with William Hill. 1 point.
Kasimpasa v Antalyaspor, Saturday 1400
Both these sides would not have been expected to be doing as well as they are in the Super Lig so far. Kasimpasa were only promoted over the summer, but started off fantastically well to find themselves sitting in fifth. A lot of this is down to the signing of players with previous top division experience and some very good home form. They go three wins, one draw and one loss at home so far with ten goals for and six against. They have appeared in the last month to possibly be falling into form more befitting the squad they have though with only a solitary win in the last four matches. Although that was last week they appear to be scratching around for improvement and are up against the current best side in the league here.
Antalyaspor came up for us last weekend by beating one of the leagues big boys Trabzonspor by two goals to one. This followed the hugely impressive 3-1 away victory over giants Fenerbahce to see Antalya sitting in second position and within striking distance of Galatasaray should they slip up. This huge improvement seems to have come from a switch to a very counter attacking approach and the form of striker Lamine Diarra. The big striker has the strength to take the ball on a quick break and beat his man before getting a quick shot off, as Fener discovered twice in quick succession. They even came from behind last week against a Trabzon side who are very hard to score against to underline the confidence currently flowing through the side.
Back Antalyaspor Draw No Bet at 2.05 with William Hill. 2 points.
Week Twelve
Man Utd v Arsenal - win 2.1 points.
Sunderland v Aston Villa - win 0.95 points.
Granada v Athletic Bilbao - win 0.95 points.
Fiorentina v Cagliari - win 1.63 points.
Hamburg v Bayern Munich - lose 1 point.
Werder Bremen v Mainz 05 - lose 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Elazigspor - lose 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Trabzonspor - win 3.2 points.
Total - up 1.63 points.
Running Total - up 3.31 points.
Music this week from my current favourites Time Again with Movin' On.
Everton v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
There could be an argument to say that so far this season Everton are the most improved side in the division. Last season saw one of their famous early slumps mean that their later form could not push them to challenge for the Champions League places, but this season they went off like a rocket. Whilst they are still well short of having a squad large enough to make a realistic challenge for the title, their starting eleven is a match for anyone in the Premier League. The two players that were the catalyst last season were Nikola Jelavic and the returning Steven Pienaar. They added the creativity and the goals that changed them from functional to a very good side. They have been joined over the summer by Kevin Mirallas and with Tim Cahill leaving Marouane Fellaini has been pushed further forward to become a pivot for the rest of the side. This has made them into quite an attacking force, which allayed to their always formidable defence should see them pushing for a top four position.
Sunderland could well be the most disappointing side in the league so far. I've been saying that I think Martin O'Neill's tactics are massively outdated since his spell at Aston Villa and it looks like the same thing is happening in the north. So far this season they have only had twelve shots on target in total and only Steven Fletcher has scored for them apart from a Demba Ba own goal. The main problem I see with O'Neill's tactics are that he completely sets a side up to defend from kick off and gives his one striker one player capable of unlocking a defence to play with. When this one player is out of form then the goals dry up, as they have so far. Stephen Sessegnon was very good last season, but for whatever reason this time out he looks jaded. This has left Fletcher to create chances for himself or wait for set-plays for chances. It is to his credit he has done so well, but no other player in the current side is playing well at all.
Back Everton at 1.53 with Ladbrokes. 3 points.
Chelsea v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
Arguably the 'big' match in terms of neutral interest this weekend sees Liverpool travelling to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea fell off the top of the Premier League when losing the hotly contested match with Manchester United two weeks ago. Whilst the decisons from that match were without doubt a bit off, Chelsea probably didn't deserve to win either. Alex Ferguson set his side up to attack and therefore go after Chelsea's weakest spot and got that completely right. Fortunately for Chelsea there is no other side in the Premier League with the wealth of attacking options that United have and they should continue to push back for the title. The attacking triumvirate of Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Oscar who play behind Fernando Torres are definitely the best forwards in the division and if they had a better striker than Fernando Torres to play off they would probably blow sides away every week. Expect them to bring this player in in January or next summer.
Liverpool have had their worst start to a league season since 1903 under Brendan Rodgers. The ex-Swansea manager is being given time as it is clear that he is trying to change the style of play at Liverpool with very little investment compared to his predecessors. Unfortunately there are the beginnings of those familiar rumblings of discontent as it is also clear that the current squad is not able to get results in this style. The major issue is the forward players are just not good enough except for Luis Suarez. Suarez himself bears this opinion out most matches with his clear distrust of those around him by trying to do everything himself and shooting on sight whenever a chance presents itself. Sometimes this does come off and he looks a world beater, but all too often he could do with some help. There is a lot of hope being placed in Jonjo Shelvey and Raheem Sterling, and they do look fine prospects, but to throw them into a side fans expect to be challenging for European football is too much too soon for them.
Back Chelsea at 2.0 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Espanyol v Osasuna, Saturday 1700
I'm going to go for two from Spain's Primera Liga this weekend, although the next one up will be something of a long odds punt. This one is between two of the sides currently struggling in the league, although Espanyol seem to be turning their form around. They stand unbeaten in their last four matches and in such a tight division one more win could well see them in mid-table. This is one of the things I dislike about betting on Spanish football that because the big two squeeze so much of the money and best players away from everyone else it becomes a free for all for the rest barring one or two every season. The thing to do seems to be to follow the mini runs of form and try to take advantage.
Osasuna have been terrible so far and only have five points thanks to a win and two draw from five at home. They have relied upon this home form in previous seasons as they have a physical style and are aided by a small and raucous set of fans backing them to aid them getting results. They have lost five from five away and I see no reason this is going to improve this weekend.
Back Espanyol at 1.95 with Coral. 1.5 points.
Levante v Real Madrid, Sunday 2030
This is my aforementioned punt. Levante managed to hover around the Champions League spots all of last season and eventually ended up in the Europa League this season. This is no small achievement for a club who are permanently broke, play in a dilapidated old ground and have plenty of players the wrong side of thirty. However, they have been moulded into a formidable team who are more than capable of getting results. They have four wins and one draw with no losses at their home ground so far.
Real Madrid may not admit it, but I would see them already turning their focus away from the league title they won last year in search of the elusive Champions League trophy they are desperate to win once again. With Barcelona looking all but unbeatable in the league this should be no surprise. They have looked plenty beatable away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two so far and I think they're worth opposing.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.3 on Betfair. 1 point.
Atalanta v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Atalanta have improved considerably in the past couple of seasons and a lot of it is down to home form. This season they go three wins and two losses from five at home to actually have them above AC Milan in the table. The problem they have had that has stopped getting above mid-table has been a lack of goals. For those three wins they have only scored and five goals and have managed to concede seven at home to actually have them in negative goal difference from what is, on paper, a good record. This is because they seem to be capable of beating everyone below them, but really struggle when up against a good side. This is no bad thing for the club, but will see them not looking forward to this fixture at all.
Inter Milan initially seemed to struggle for consistency under their young manager Andrea Stramaccioni, but are now flying. They actually ended Juventus's amazing unbeaten run of league matches last weekend in Turin after going behind. The manager seems completely secure in his own ability and this leads to him making some astute substitutions and tactical changes not brought on by panic when things are not going their way. He has also seemingly managed to restore the confidence of striker Diego Milito who was previously so impressive when Inter won the treble under Jose Mourinho and does have all the necessary attributes of a top level striker. He has now got four in his last three matches. With Inter winning every away match this season I think their price is worth backing here.
Back Inter Milan at 2.25 with StanJames. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg, Friday 1930
Last weekend we were undone by a very late Werder Bremen goal giving them victory over a very good Mainz side. With this in mind I think they are still worth following as I still think they are the best of the rest in the Bundesliga. An awful lot of the credit for this should go to manager Thomas Tuchel. He has a system which has the team pressing from the front and trying to starve the opposition of the ball and force them into mistakes. This works against even the best sides due to the fitness and discipline of the players as well as having a settled team who all rely on each other working just as hard. The additon of striker Adam Szalai has added the dimension of goals too and they now look a side capable of again qualifying for Europe.
Nurnberg have shown signs of improvement lately, although that is compared to wretched early form. They got a win last week, but this was against the equally poor Wolfsburg in a 1-0 home win, it should also be taken into account that Wolfsburg have been poor away for around eighteen months. That still stands as their only win of the season and considering the opposition I would not be keen to be with them until they can put a few good performances together in a row.
Back Mainz 05 at 1.8 with Coral. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Friday 1800
Last season saw the Super Lig ending with Sivasspor looking like they could make a serious push for European football this season, but that has not come to pass. Strangely enough they seem to be struggling for goals after two years of being a seriously attacking side. This seems to have been a tactical decision to start trying to keep goals out and allay that to their previous attacking talent to make a great all round side. Sadly their forwards have been completely off colour and the definitely improved defence has led to lots of draws at home. They have an entirely symetrical home form table at the moment with one win, three draws and one loss with seven goals both for and against. Up against another side who have a tight defence this will be difficult.
As mentioned Eskisehirspor seem to have recovered their defensive solidity this season after a very poor end to last. They are traditonally one of the stronger sides outside of the Istanbul trio and currently sit in third position in the table. Whereas previously they relied upon plenty of tight victories they have been blowing sides away at home so far with fourteen goals for them at home actually being a league leading total. They go one win, two draw and two losses away though with only seven scored and eight conceded. I think this is worth split stakes.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 with William Hill. 1 point.
Kasimpasa v Antalyaspor, Saturday 1400
Both these sides would not have been expected to be doing as well as they are in the Super Lig so far. Kasimpasa were only promoted over the summer, but started off fantastically well to find themselves sitting in fifth. A lot of this is down to the signing of players with previous top division experience and some very good home form. They go three wins, one draw and one loss at home so far with ten goals for and six against. They have appeared in the last month to possibly be falling into form more befitting the squad they have though with only a solitary win in the last four matches. Although that was last week they appear to be scratching around for improvement and are up against the current best side in the league here.
Antalyaspor came up for us last weekend by beating one of the leagues big boys Trabzonspor by two goals to one. This followed the hugely impressive 3-1 away victory over giants Fenerbahce to see Antalya sitting in second position and within striking distance of Galatasaray should they slip up. This huge improvement seems to have come from a switch to a very counter attacking approach and the form of striker Lamine Diarra. The big striker has the strength to take the ball on a quick break and beat his man before getting a quick shot off, as Fener discovered twice in quick succession. They even came from behind last week against a Trabzon side who are very hard to score against to underline the confidence currently flowing through the side.
Back Antalyaspor Draw No Bet at 2.05 with William Hill. 2 points.
Wednesday, 31 October 2012
All For The Krak...
As I am off to Krakow, Poland for a stag do this weekend the column is going up one day earlier than usual. This might even provide us with some early value as you can often find it if you look hard enough where the odds have not quite settled down for the weekends yet. This follows by far the worst weekend for us in a very long time.
Week Eleven
Newcastle v West Brom - Lose 2 points.
Chelsea v Man Utd - Lose 2 points.
Levante v Granada - Win 3.3 points.
Torino v Parma - Lose 2 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Wolfsburg - Lose 2 points.
Schalke v Nurnberg - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Besiktas - Lose 3 points.
Fenerbahce v Antalyaspor - Lose 2 points.
Total - Lose 11.7 points.
Running Total - Up 1.69 points.
Music this week from Drag The River with Medicine.
Manchester United v Arsenal, Saturday 1245
As has been pointed out in many quarters lately, every major side in England has currently got some serious problems somewhere within their sides. These two are no exception. Man Utd have started the season pretty well in terms of results and having beaten Chelsea on Sunday are now installed as favourites for the title. The problem with this is that every favourite currently has to be a lay for me with the aforementioned issues they all have. United's problem is that they have an ageing defence and the centre of midfield has been weakening for years. The ravages of time have made both Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic look increasingly fragile and when both of these are missing it often leaves United so short they resort to Michael Carrick stepping in at the back. Then you have the ongoing problem of central midfield. I personally am a fan of the Carrick and Darren Fletcher combination that was available until Fletcher's medical issues. But outside of that pairing United still often field Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes at times who have both long since passed their best days. The saving grace is that with Robin Van Persie added to their attack and Javier Hernandez rediscovering his scoring touch they possess possibly the most threatening strikers in the division to outscore opponents.
Arsenal's issue is actually their attack since Van Persie joined United. Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski were brought in to replace the Dutchman, but neither has shown a prolonged period of form yet. The only real positives so far are that the defence had looked steady in most league matches and Santi Cazorla has looked every inch a man with over 50 Spanish caps. There was also the return of Jack Wilshere to midfield against QPR last week where he looked immediately at ease, but naturally he is lacking complete fitness after around eighteen months out. The Gunners have drawn blanks in four league matches already though and really need their forwards to start firing if they are to qualify for the Champions League again next season. They laboured to beat an awful QPR side last weekend after losing to Norwich the week before and also giving Reading a three goal headstart in the League Cup. I personally don't think they should have pushed United's price as far as it has been so will be betting accordingly.
Back Manchester United at 1.7 with 32Red. 3 points.
Sunderland v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
I would not recommend watching this one unless you're some sort of sadist. Sunderland are certainly what I consider a typical Martin O'Neill side now, functional and devoid of flair. It does seem that the Northern Irishman's stock has fallen somewhat since his days of being thrown around as a name for the England managers role or even as Alex Ferguson's successor at Man Utd. This is completely natural as the man has not adjusted at all to the way football has changed. He very rarely seems to look abroad for players, even though the quality of football has regressed in almost all of the British Isles national sides. This inherent distrust seems to me to be based upon wanting players he can count on to make a lot of effort rather than provide occasional inspiration. So far this term Steven Fletcher has dragged them through matches with goals, but this will only get them so far. Thankfully his old side Aston Villa are just as poor, if not worse.
Paul Lambert's decision to leave Norwich City for Aston Villa may seem like it's backfired, but it can't be denied there is more potential at the Midlands outfit. The problem is getting them out of the funk they have all been in since early on in Alex McCleish's awful reign. I watched the match against Norwich last Saturday and it is plain to see there is a lack of top quality for both sides in every area. Villa have spent too much on dross in the recent past and are now paying for that with substandard young players and signings on a budget. Then you also have those like Darren Bent who have lost their places and seem unlikely to hold their tongues when it comes to criticising the new manager. Bent may have a legitimate grievance though as a proven goalscorer being kept out for Lambert's Belgian striker Cristian Benteke who has hardly set the league alight.
Back Under 2.0 Goals at 2.3 with Bet365. 1.5 points.
Granada v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 1845
Two sides who have not started the season well meet in Granada on Sunday evening. Both currently lie just above the relegation spots with eight points each and will be keen to get something from this match. Granada are like Watford in that they are heavily backed by the same family behind Udinese in Italy. This has seen them used as a loan destination for young foreign players that Udinese would like to gain experience/passports who cannot do so at their parent club. This will sometimes see them with a player far beyond their original means, but more often that not sees them with players who don't look like they fit together well at all.
Athletic Bilbao have featured a few times already due to their truly awful form after last seasons achievements. I don't need to go into any more detail than I already have really except to re-emphasise the point that they look doomed under manager Marcelo Bielsa as the players have simply stopped responding to his management. Both sides are very capable of shipping goals so I'll be playing with that in mind.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 with William Hill.
Fiorentina v Cagliari, Sunday 1400
With Stefan Jovetic back from injury this season Fiorentina have looked a far better and more consistent side than they did last year. The Montenegrin forward is a fine player with no little flair and invention as well as a goal threat, I would certainly expect a move for him next summer if he stays fit all season. Possibly their best result so far came just last weekend when they beat Lazio 2-0 at home thanks to goals from the winger Adam Ljajic and veteran striker Luca Toni with a fine effort. They have only conceded one goal at home all season, and that was way back on the first day to leave them with four wins and a draw from five home matches.
Cagliari are sat in mid-table at present, a position they will be very happy to occupy come May too. They have a pretty tight defence and an organised midfield, but sadly this contributes to the lack of goal threat they pose. They have only conceded nine goals in nine matches, but sadly for them have also only scored six themselves. This makes them a side more than capable of frustrating sides, but who find it very difficult to get back into matches. In this Fiorentina side they will come against attackers with sufficient quality to punish them for this.
Back Fiorentina at 1.65 with William Hill. 2.5 points.
Hamburg v Bayern Munich, Saturday 1730
Traditionally two of the giants of the Bundesliga whose fortunes have greatly varied in the recent past. Bayern seem to be establishing another side who are capable of dominating at home and challenging in Europe's premier competitions. Hamburg almost dropped out of the Bundesliga last season and started poorly again before picking up recently. This has been down to the form of four players seemingly. The goalkeeper Rene Adler has excelled, Rafael Van Der Vaart's signing has given a lift to the whole club and forwards Artjoms Rudnevs and Son Heung-Min. This is definitely a punt, but I think after Bayern were beaten last weekend it's worth seeing if they have a hangover.
Lay Bayern Munich at 1.4 on Betfair. 1 point.
Werder Bremen v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
Werder Bremen have often featured in this column since inception as they are always a side capable of scoring or leaking goals and seem to go through pronounced runs of form and out of form. If you can spot these little spells it can be quite profitable to either back or lay them accordingly in the short term. At present they seem to be struggling for form with only one win in the last four matches seeing them slipping to mid-table in the Bundesliga. They did lose one of these matches to the in-form Bayern Munich, but have drawn and lost to the two worst sides in the division also in Augsburg and Greuther Furth. They seem to be struggling to get a foothold in matches and an organised Mainz side is probably not who they would choose to play.
As mentioned Mainz can always be relied upon to have a gameplan and to put in no shortage of effort to achieve a result. The coach Thomas Tuchel has been in the hotseat for a few years now and has established a style of play based on pressing with one or two players given licence to create in attack. The latest player to emerge seems to be Adam Szalai who grabbed a hat-trick against Hoffenheim last week and had looked lively in previous appearances and also grabbing numerous goals. The midfield will look to pressure the Werder side and then feed the Hungarian as quickly as possible. Mainz are also on a current unbeaten four match streak and are looking very tight at the back in general.
Lay Werder Bremen at 2.07 on Betfair. 2 points.
Genclerbirligi v Elazigspor, Sunday 1400
So far this season in the Super Lig there have been a few surprise sides at the top of the table. One of these has been Genclerbirligi who have only lost one match and currently sit in third position. They drew with Galatasaray not too long ago at home to continue a fine run which sees them with two wins and two draws at home this season. More impressive though is the fact that they have scored a whopping eleven goals in those four home matches and conceded five. They have only failed to find the net in two matches so far this season, both away, and this is due to them having numerous goal threats throughout the side. They look likely to continue in a lofty position so long as they can keep scoring goals in a normally tight league.
Elazigspor were promoted over the summer and have looked well out of their depth at the top level. They are still yet to win this season and are at serious risk of being cut adrift at the base of the league. They simply lack quality throughout the side. All you have to do is glance at their goals for and against to see this borne out, they have only scored five goals and conceded seventeen in nine matches. This spells doom for them and how Gencler are available at current prices is beyond me.
Back Genclerbirligi at 1.83 with Stan James. 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Trabzonspor, Monday 1800
Another Monday night match in Turkey to extend the weekend. Last week I thought Fenerbahce might struggle to cope with the seasons surprise package Antalyaspor, but even I didn't see them being picked off as they were. In the early stages Fener looked like they were struggling to find a killer touch, but were having most of the play. Then just before half time two lightening breaks saw Antalyaspor carrying a 2-0 lead into the second half. Their striker Lamine Diarra looked absolutely unplayable for both goals, he shrugged off defenders and finished coolly for both. They are now level on points with Galatasaray and could even go top with a win as Gala have a tough match at Istanbul BB. This should see them with no little motivation to break down stubborn Trabzonspor.
Trabzon are another side who have featured due to their search for a new way of playing after the departure of key striker Burak Yilmaz over the summer to Gala. They have been set up fantastically in defence for a few seasons now so they are still very tough to beat, but their lack of goals is causing them to draw too many matches. They have drawn four of nine matches so far and only scored five goals. Antalya look capable of soaking up pressure just fine so as long as they can get a couple of chances they should be fine here.
Back Antalyaspor at 2.6 with StanJames. 2 points.
Week Eleven
Newcastle v West Brom - Lose 2 points.
Chelsea v Man Utd - Lose 2 points.
Levante v Granada - Win 3.3 points.
Torino v Parma - Lose 2 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Wolfsburg - Lose 2 points.
Schalke v Nurnberg - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Besiktas - Lose 3 points.
Fenerbahce v Antalyaspor - Lose 2 points.
Total - Lose 11.7 points.
Running Total - Up 1.69 points.
Music this week from Drag The River with Medicine.
Manchester United v Arsenal, Saturday 1245
As has been pointed out in many quarters lately, every major side in England has currently got some serious problems somewhere within their sides. These two are no exception. Man Utd have started the season pretty well in terms of results and having beaten Chelsea on Sunday are now installed as favourites for the title. The problem with this is that every favourite currently has to be a lay for me with the aforementioned issues they all have. United's problem is that they have an ageing defence and the centre of midfield has been weakening for years. The ravages of time have made both Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic look increasingly fragile and when both of these are missing it often leaves United so short they resort to Michael Carrick stepping in at the back. Then you have the ongoing problem of central midfield. I personally am a fan of the Carrick and Darren Fletcher combination that was available until Fletcher's medical issues. But outside of that pairing United still often field Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes at times who have both long since passed their best days. The saving grace is that with Robin Van Persie added to their attack and Javier Hernandez rediscovering his scoring touch they possess possibly the most threatening strikers in the division to outscore opponents.
Arsenal's issue is actually their attack since Van Persie joined United. Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski were brought in to replace the Dutchman, but neither has shown a prolonged period of form yet. The only real positives so far are that the defence had looked steady in most league matches and Santi Cazorla has looked every inch a man with over 50 Spanish caps. There was also the return of Jack Wilshere to midfield against QPR last week where he looked immediately at ease, but naturally he is lacking complete fitness after around eighteen months out. The Gunners have drawn blanks in four league matches already though and really need their forwards to start firing if they are to qualify for the Champions League again next season. They laboured to beat an awful QPR side last weekend after losing to Norwich the week before and also giving Reading a three goal headstart in the League Cup. I personally don't think they should have pushed United's price as far as it has been so will be betting accordingly.
Back Manchester United at 1.7 with 32Red. 3 points.
Sunderland v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
I would not recommend watching this one unless you're some sort of sadist. Sunderland are certainly what I consider a typical Martin O'Neill side now, functional and devoid of flair. It does seem that the Northern Irishman's stock has fallen somewhat since his days of being thrown around as a name for the England managers role or even as Alex Ferguson's successor at Man Utd. This is completely natural as the man has not adjusted at all to the way football has changed. He very rarely seems to look abroad for players, even though the quality of football has regressed in almost all of the British Isles national sides. This inherent distrust seems to me to be based upon wanting players he can count on to make a lot of effort rather than provide occasional inspiration. So far this term Steven Fletcher has dragged them through matches with goals, but this will only get them so far. Thankfully his old side Aston Villa are just as poor, if not worse.
Paul Lambert's decision to leave Norwich City for Aston Villa may seem like it's backfired, but it can't be denied there is more potential at the Midlands outfit. The problem is getting them out of the funk they have all been in since early on in Alex McCleish's awful reign. I watched the match against Norwich last Saturday and it is plain to see there is a lack of top quality for both sides in every area. Villa have spent too much on dross in the recent past and are now paying for that with substandard young players and signings on a budget. Then you also have those like Darren Bent who have lost their places and seem unlikely to hold their tongues when it comes to criticising the new manager. Bent may have a legitimate grievance though as a proven goalscorer being kept out for Lambert's Belgian striker Cristian Benteke who has hardly set the league alight.
Back Under 2.0 Goals at 2.3 with Bet365. 1.5 points.
Granada v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 1845
Two sides who have not started the season well meet in Granada on Sunday evening. Both currently lie just above the relegation spots with eight points each and will be keen to get something from this match. Granada are like Watford in that they are heavily backed by the same family behind Udinese in Italy. This has seen them used as a loan destination for young foreign players that Udinese would like to gain experience/passports who cannot do so at their parent club. This will sometimes see them with a player far beyond their original means, but more often that not sees them with players who don't look like they fit together well at all.
Athletic Bilbao have featured a few times already due to their truly awful form after last seasons achievements. I don't need to go into any more detail than I already have really except to re-emphasise the point that they look doomed under manager Marcelo Bielsa as the players have simply stopped responding to his management. Both sides are very capable of shipping goals so I'll be playing with that in mind.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 with William Hill.
Fiorentina v Cagliari, Sunday 1400
With Stefan Jovetic back from injury this season Fiorentina have looked a far better and more consistent side than they did last year. The Montenegrin forward is a fine player with no little flair and invention as well as a goal threat, I would certainly expect a move for him next summer if he stays fit all season. Possibly their best result so far came just last weekend when they beat Lazio 2-0 at home thanks to goals from the winger Adam Ljajic and veteran striker Luca Toni with a fine effort. They have only conceded one goal at home all season, and that was way back on the first day to leave them with four wins and a draw from five home matches.
Cagliari are sat in mid-table at present, a position they will be very happy to occupy come May too. They have a pretty tight defence and an organised midfield, but sadly this contributes to the lack of goal threat they pose. They have only conceded nine goals in nine matches, but sadly for them have also only scored six themselves. This makes them a side more than capable of frustrating sides, but who find it very difficult to get back into matches. In this Fiorentina side they will come against attackers with sufficient quality to punish them for this.
Back Fiorentina at 1.65 with William Hill. 2.5 points.
Hamburg v Bayern Munich, Saturday 1730
Traditionally two of the giants of the Bundesliga whose fortunes have greatly varied in the recent past. Bayern seem to be establishing another side who are capable of dominating at home and challenging in Europe's premier competitions. Hamburg almost dropped out of the Bundesliga last season and started poorly again before picking up recently. This has been down to the form of four players seemingly. The goalkeeper Rene Adler has excelled, Rafael Van Der Vaart's signing has given a lift to the whole club and forwards Artjoms Rudnevs and Son Heung-Min. This is definitely a punt, but I think after Bayern were beaten last weekend it's worth seeing if they have a hangover.
Lay Bayern Munich at 1.4 on Betfair. 1 point.
Werder Bremen v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
Werder Bremen have often featured in this column since inception as they are always a side capable of scoring or leaking goals and seem to go through pronounced runs of form and out of form. If you can spot these little spells it can be quite profitable to either back or lay them accordingly in the short term. At present they seem to be struggling for form with only one win in the last four matches seeing them slipping to mid-table in the Bundesliga. They did lose one of these matches to the in-form Bayern Munich, but have drawn and lost to the two worst sides in the division also in Augsburg and Greuther Furth. They seem to be struggling to get a foothold in matches and an organised Mainz side is probably not who they would choose to play.
As mentioned Mainz can always be relied upon to have a gameplan and to put in no shortage of effort to achieve a result. The coach Thomas Tuchel has been in the hotseat for a few years now and has established a style of play based on pressing with one or two players given licence to create in attack. The latest player to emerge seems to be Adam Szalai who grabbed a hat-trick against Hoffenheim last week and had looked lively in previous appearances and also grabbing numerous goals. The midfield will look to pressure the Werder side and then feed the Hungarian as quickly as possible. Mainz are also on a current unbeaten four match streak and are looking very tight at the back in general.
Lay Werder Bremen at 2.07 on Betfair. 2 points.
Genclerbirligi v Elazigspor, Sunday 1400
So far this season in the Super Lig there have been a few surprise sides at the top of the table. One of these has been Genclerbirligi who have only lost one match and currently sit in third position. They drew with Galatasaray not too long ago at home to continue a fine run which sees them with two wins and two draws at home this season. More impressive though is the fact that they have scored a whopping eleven goals in those four home matches and conceded five. They have only failed to find the net in two matches so far this season, both away, and this is due to them having numerous goal threats throughout the side. They look likely to continue in a lofty position so long as they can keep scoring goals in a normally tight league.
Elazigspor were promoted over the summer and have looked well out of their depth at the top level. They are still yet to win this season and are at serious risk of being cut adrift at the base of the league. They simply lack quality throughout the side. All you have to do is glance at their goals for and against to see this borne out, they have only scored five goals and conceded seventeen in nine matches. This spells doom for them and how Gencler are available at current prices is beyond me.
Back Genclerbirligi at 1.83 with Stan James. 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Trabzonspor, Monday 1800
Another Monday night match in Turkey to extend the weekend. Last week I thought Fenerbahce might struggle to cope with the seasons surprise package Antalyaspor, but even I didn't see them being picked off as they were. In the early stages Fener looked like they were struggling to find a killer touch, but were having most of the play. Then just before half time two lightening breaks saw Antalyaspor carrying a 2-0 lead into the second half. Their striker Lamine Diarra looked absolutely unplayable for both goals, he shrugged off defenders and finished coolly for both. They are now level on points with Galatasaray and could even go top with a win as Gala have a tough match at Istanbul BB. This should see them with no little motivation to break down stubborn Trabzonspor.
Trabzon are another side who have featured due to their search for a new way of playing after the departure of key striker Burak Yilmaz over the summer to Gala. They have been set up fantastically in defence for a few seasons now so they are still very tough to beat, but their lack of goals is causing them to draw too many matches. They have drawn four of nine matches so far and only scored five goals. Antalya look capable of soaking up pressure just fine so as long as they can get a couple of chances they should be fine here.
Back Antalyaspor at 2.6 with StanJames. 2 points.
Thursday, 25 October 2012
Consistency Is Key...
It's that time of the week again and last weekend had us again back in decent profit after a couple of small losses on the bounce. My intention is obviously to provide as many winning tips as possible, but I would be very happy to continue with a profit all season as we've had some fun then and also made money whilst we're at it. Now, isn't that a feel good message?
Week Ten
Tottenham v Chelsea - Lose 2 points.
Fulham v Aston Villa - Win 2.49 points.
Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid - Win 2.4 points.
Juventus v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke - Lose 2.5 points.
Hamburg v Stuttgart - Lose 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray - Win 3 points.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor - Win 3.75 points.
Total - Win 2.14 points.
Running Total - Up 13.39 points.
Music this week from The Bouncing Souls with True Believer.
Newcastle v West Brom, Sunday 1500
Two teams who have surprised for different reasons meet at St James Park on Sunday afternoon. Newcastle almost made the Champions League last season after going against nearly everyone's predictions and keeping up their form for the entire season. The spine of the side was particularly strong from the excellent young goalkeeper Tim Krul through to the forwards Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse from January onwards. Add to this the hugely improved centre back Fabricio Collocini and central midfield pairing of Cheik Tiote and Yohan Cabaye with flourishes from Hatem Ben Arfa too and it's a very decent first eleven. Sadly for their fans there have been injuries and poor form meaning they look nothing like the side they were last year. Coloccini has been injured, Ben Arfa out of form, Tiote a loose cannon and Demba Ba still seems in a strop that Papiss Cisse is often picked as the focal point of the attack. They have goals in them still, but they seem far more liable to leak them than they were.
West Brom have started the season fantastically well and made the appointment of perennial coach Steve Clarke as manager look an inspired decision. Everywhere the Scot has been as a coach there has been a recognised improvement in the defensive side of their game and it is no surprise that West Brom look secure at the back and organised throughout the team. Where they have improved also is in attack. Peter Odemwingie was always a threat when in form and he has looked good all season so far, Shane Long flickered last term and is looking a threat whenever he plays this season and the loan signing of Roman Lukaku looks a great bit of business. Having these three threats, and all offering different attributes, bodes very well for the season as they can change tact during matches by changing the forwards. I think Newcastle are a very short price looking at how both sides have played so far this season.
Lay Newcastle at 2.0 on Betfair. 2 points.
Chelsea v Manchester United, Sunday 1600
Both sides looked poor in defence for long spells in their Champions League matches this midweek. Chelsea had what may well turn out to be their toughest match in the group stage this week when away in Shakhtar Donetsk. The Ukrainian side have long been threatening to break out and do something in the Champions League and they made a statement against Chelsea. They won 2-1 and their attackers made Chelsea's defence look very ordinary. Whilst this should be of some concern for manager Roberto Di Matteo, he can take comfort in the fact that his attack has also looked lethal this season and there are few, if any, teams in the Premier League with an attack in as good form as Shakhtar's. Last weekend against Tottenham Chelsea allowed their London rivals over twenty shots, but still scored four goals themselves to come away with a 4-2 victory. They are currently passing every test put in front of them in domestic action.
If we're talking about poor defences then Man Utd's has to be discussed. They were at home to Sporting Braga of Portugal this week and contrived to go two goals behind and make a very ordinary side look brilliant. That they came back to win 3-2 should not disguise the truly horrendous display put in by all but their attackers. Jonny Evans may have scored, but he was once again showed to be no leader at the back and will be looking forward to Rio Ferdinand returning to partner him instead of Michael Carrick. Rafael still gives away chances, although he has improved, but Alex Buttner the new signing at left back looked dreadful defensively and a long way off replacing the declining Patrice Evra. With Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie fortunately looking very good up front they will think they have a chance of scoring, but I think you have to back a Chelsea side in such good domestic form.
Back Chelsea at 2.4 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Levante v Granada, Sunday 1500
This one is mostly because Coral seem to be taking a real punt on laying Levante. The market has almost entirely moved to below even money and they are still holding their price. Levante outperformed predictions last season and qualified for the Europa League in the end. They did this on the back of a very strong team ethic and everyone at the club pulling together. They have an intimidating little ground in industrial Valencia which sees them so far with three wins and a draw at home this season. Granada are still struggling to move away from the bottom after only just surviving last season by the skin of their teeth. They have won one and lost three away from home.
Back Levante at 2.1 with Coral. 3 points.
Torino v Parma, Sunday 1400
My one pick from Italy this week has Parma travelling to Turin to play Torino. Torino were promoted from Serie B over the summer and seem to have settled back in to the top league just fine. That they have always been the biggest side outside of the huge names in Italy has helped them secure funds to improve the side and also to attract players. They have also always drawn a very passionate support which makes matches against them at home tough for visiting sides in a country where such things are not that common. This has sadly not had the desired effect so far this term with a home record of won one, drawn one and lost two. They have scored and conceded three goals though to show that they are not being outclassed. They will have a good opportunity to get another win on the board here.
Parma have long since slipped from being challengers for the title in the late 90's and early 00's. Back then they were being bankrolled by Parmalat and since they went out of business the side has had to make do with a team without stars. They are a perennial mid tabel side now who occasionally slip nearer to the relegation fight. I doubt whether they will go down any time soon though as they are very well organised and excellent at home. The problem has been away form for many seasons now, in a similar vein to Fulham in the Premier League. This season has been no different with a draw and three losses so far. With only two scored and eight conceded in those four away matches Torino's tight defence should be able to cope.
Back Torino at 2.25 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1430
First up from Germany is promoted Fortuna Dusseldorf hosting Wolfsburg. Dusseldorf have started their season pretty well on their return to the Bundesliga. They sit happily mid table and have an excellent away record so far in particular, although they are yet to win a match at home. At home they go with three draws and a loss from four matches whereas they have won two, drawn one and lost one away from home. They are also coming off the back of three very tough matches with only a draw to show from them. They lost 5-0 at home to Bayern Munich last weekend too to compound a poor period. I could make a case though that that result with have little effect as they would not have expected to get anything from the match, let alone with Bayern in such excellent form.
Wolfsburg have started the season in dreadful form. The appointment of Felix Magath last season may well have had some immediate rewards in terms of steering them clear of the relegation zone, but it is now looking a terrible choice. The German was something of a hotshot around a decade ago, but his stock has fallen a long way since then. There was a drugs scandal around him at one point and all his eccentricities have since come to the fore. He is a manager who believes in constant punishment when players are out of form to somehow get a response out of them, but this is clearly not working and most of his players now seem to be in active revolt against the manager. They sit bottom of the table and rightfully so.
Back Fortuna Dusseldorf at 2.37 with William Hill. 2 points.
Schalke 04 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
Last weekend I put a fair stake on Borussia Dortmund to beat derby rivals Schalke at home only to be let down. I may well have underestimated this Royal Blue side so far. I had their position written down as slightly false in the league table, but having seen their two performances against Dortmund and Arsenal I think they may well be ready to kick on from last season in both the league and Europe. Last season they were heavily reliant on the goals of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and he had not started this term in quite such decent form, but he is still making a telling contribution. His hold up and link play is providing those around him with opportunities to score and create and he will be a wanted man again in January. They have played four matches at home so far and won all but a 2-0 loss to the imperious Bayern Munich. Take that match out and they have played three, won three and scored nine whilst only conceding one. That is quite some record.
Nurnberg have been a mid table fixture for a couple of years now, but are struggling at the base of the Bundesliga at this stage. They have actually performed far better away from home, picking up their only two victories on the road so far. Both these wins came in the first three matches though and they had lost four on the bounce before last weekends 0-0 draw at home to equally poor Augsburg. They are a team that look bereft of confidence and completely unable to pose a threat to the oppositions goal, which can't be good coming up against such a side as Schalke.
Back Schalke/Schalke Half Time/Full Time at 1.9 with SpreadEx. 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Besiktas, Friday 1800
I had read many pre-season predictions that Kasimpasa would be a side to watch as they had come up in style and added numerous experienced Super Lig players to their ranks over the summer. This has turned out to be the case so far with them slotting into the top division seemlessly and currently sitting in fifth position, above giants Fenerbahce and Besiktas. They have some imperious home form to thank for this position with three wins and a draw from their four matches with nine goals scored and only three conceded. Away from home is a different matter altogether, but they'll be a match for anyone who visits them.
Besiktas failed to beat Trabzonspor at home last weekend to leave us with a very healthy profit from that match. The problem they always seem to have is that they can't rouse themselves to match any side willing to make it tough for them. Trabzon wont let anyone have an easy ride and they showed Besiktas how to earn a point. That result leaves Besik in twelfth position in the table with only one victory at home and one away so far. They still possess enough match winners to beat most sides, but I can't have them as favourites in this at all.
Lay Besiktas at 2.45 on Betfair. 3 points.
Fenerbahce v Antalyaspor, Monday 1800
Another side who have started the season in excellent form are Antalyaspor. They currently sit behind only Galatasaray in the table and have looked very tough to beat. If you remove a 4-0 beating from Gala when they were down to ten men then they have only conceded six goals in eight matches and have scored fourteen, eleven of which at home in four matches. This is absolutely unheard of in Turkey outside of the big boys and has to be respected. They go two wins and two losses away from home to show they are a lot more unpredictable, but the problem they have had has been scoring when away. They have only conceded four goals in four away matches, but scored three.
Fenerbahce have not started the season as well as they would have wanted to with a pronounced target of regaining the league title from Istanbul rivals Galatasaray. They currently lie in sixth position and are not exactly going great in the Europa League either. Issues with star man Alex Da Silva overshadowed a lot of the season so far. The Brazilian captain of the side was dropped after having issues with the management of the club and this upset many players as well as a large contingent of the fanbase. They do go three wins and a draw from their four home matches with eight scored and one conceded to show it is their away form that is the issue. However comma I think it's worth giving Antalya a helping hand as I don't think Fener will find this easy.
Back the Draw -1 on Handicap at 3.6 with Boylesports. 2 points.
Week Ten
Tottenham v Chelsea - Lose 2 points.
Fulham v Aston Villa - Win 2.49 points.
Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid - Win 2.4 points.
Juventus v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke - Lose 2.5 points.
Hamburg v Stuttgart - Lose 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray - Win 3 points.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor - Win 3.75 points.
Total - Win 2.14 points.
Running Total - Up 13.39 points.
Music this week from The Bouncing Souls with True Believer.
Newcastle v West Brom, Sunday 1500
Two teams who have surprised for different reasons meet at St James Park on Sunday afternoon. Newcastle almost made the Champions League last season after going against nearly everyone's predictions and keeping up their form for the entire season. The spine of the side was particularly strong from the excellent young goalkeeper Tim Krul through to the forwards Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse from January onwards. Add to this the hugely improved centre back Fabricio Collocini and central midfield pairing of Cheik Tiote and Yohan Cabaye with flourishes from Hatem Ben Arfa too and it's a very decent first eleven. Sadly for their fans there have been injuries and poor form meaning they look nothing like the side they were last year. Coloccini has been injured, Ben Arfa out of form, Tiote a loose cannon and Demba Ba still seems in a strop that Papiss Cisse is often picked as the focal point of the attack. They have goals in them still, but they seem far more liable to leak them than they were.
West Brom have started the season fantastically well and made the appointment of perennial coach Steve Clarke as manager look an inspired decision. Everywhere the Scot has been as a coach there has been a recognised improvement in the defensive side of their game and it is no surprise that West Brom look secure at the back and organised throughout the team. Where they have improved also is in attack. Peter Odemwingie was always a threat when in form and he has looked good all season so far, Shane Long flickered last term and is looking a threat whenever he plays this season and the loan signing of Roman Lukaku looks a great bit of business. Having these three threats, and all offering different attributes, bodes very well for the season as they can change tact during matches by changing the forwards. I think Newcastle are a very short price looking at how both sides have played so far this season.
Lay Newcastle at 2.0 on Betfair. 2 points.
Chelsea v Manchester United, Sunday 1600
Both sides looked poor in defence for long spells in their Champions League matches this midweek. Chelsea had what may well turn out to be their toughest match in the group stage this week when away in Shakhtar Donetsk. The Ukrainian side have long been threatening to break out and do something in the Champions League and they made a statement against Chelsea. They won 2-1 and their attackers made Chelsea's defence look very ordinary. Whilst this should be of some concern for manager Roberto Di Matteo, he can take comfort in the fact that his attack has also looked lethal this season and there are few, if any, teams in the Premier League with an attack in as good form as Shakhtar's. Last weekend against Tottenham Chelsea allowed their London rivals over twenty shots, but still scored four goals themselves to come away with a 4-2 victory. They are currently passing every test put in front of them in domestic action.
If we're talking about poor defences then Man Utd's has to be discussed. They were at home to Sporting Braga of Portugal this week and contrived to go two goals behind and make a very ordinary side look brilliant. That they came back to win 3-2 should not disguise the truly horrendous display put in by all but their attackers. Jonny Evans may have scored, but he was once again showed to be no leader at the back and will be looking forward to Rio Ferdinand returning to partner him instead of Michael Carrick. Rafael still gives away chances, although he has improved, but Alex Buttner the new signing at left back looked dreadful defensively and a long way off replacing the declining Patrice Evra. With Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie fortunately looking very good up front they will think they have a chance of scoring, but I think you have to back a Chelsea side in such good domestic form.
Back Chelsea at 2.4 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Levante v Granada, Sunday 1500
This one is mostly because Coral seem to be taking a real punt on laying Levante. The market has almost entirely moved to below even money and they are still holding their price. Levante outperformed predictions last season and qualified for the Europa League in the end. They did this on the back of a very strong team ethic and everyone at the club pulling together. They have an intimidating little ground in industrial Valencia which sees them so far with three wins and a draw at home this season. Granada are still struggling to move away from the bottom after only just surviving last season by the skin of their teeth. They have won one and lost three away from home.
Back Levante at 2.1 with Coral. 3 points.
Torino v Parma, Sunday 1400
My one pick from Italy this week has Parma travelling to Turin to play Torino. Torino were promoted from Serie B over the summer and seem to have settled back in to the top league just fine. That they have always been the biggest side outside of the huge names in Italy has helped them secure funds to improve the side and also to attract players. They have also always drawn a very passionate support which makes matches against them at home tough for visiting sides in a country where such things are not that common. This has sadly not had the desired effect so far this term with a home record of won one, drawn one and lost two. They have scored and conceded three goals though to show that they are not being outclassed. They will have a good opportunity to get another win on the board here.
Parma have long since slipped from being challengers for the title in the late 90's and early 00's. Back then they were being bankrolled by Parmalat and since they went out of business the side has had to make do with a team without stars. They are a perennial mid tabel side now who occasionally slip nearer to the relegation fight. I doubt whether they will go down any time soon though as they are very well organised and excellent at home. The problem has been away form for many seasons now, in a similar vein to Fulham in the Premier League. This season has been no different with a draw and three losses so far. With only two scored and eight conceded in those four away matches Torino's tight defence should be able to cope.
Back Torino at 2.25 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1430
First up from Germany is promoted Fortuna Dusseldorf hosting Wolfsburg. Dusseldorf have started their season pretty well on their return to the Bundesliga. They sit happily mid table and have an excellent away record so far in particular, although they are yet to win a match at home. At home they go with three draws and a loss from four matches whereas they have won two, drawn one and lost one away from home. They are also coming off the back of three very tough matches with only a draw to show from them. They lost 5-0 at home to Bayern Munich last weekend too to compound a poor period. I could make a case though that that result with have little effect as they would not have expected to get anything from the match, let alone with Bayern in such excellent form.
Wolfsburg have started the season in dreadful form. The appointment of Felix Magath last season may well have had some immediate rewards in terms of steering them clear of the relegation zone, but it is now looking a terrible choice. The German was something of a hotshot around a decade ago, but his stock has fallen a long way since then. There was a drugs scandal around him at one point and all his eccentricities have since come to the fore. He is a manager who believes in constant punishment when players are out of form to somehow get a response out of them, but this is clearly not working and most of his players now seem to be in active revolt against the manager. They sit bottom of the table and rightfully so.
Back Fortuna Dusseldorf at 2.37 with William Hill. 2 points.
Schalke 04 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
Last weekend I put a fair stake on Borussia Dortmund to beat derby rivals Schalke at home only to be let down. I may well have underestimated this Royal Blue side so far. I had their position written down as slightly false in the league table, but having seen their two performances against Dortmund and Arsenal I think they may well be ready to kick on from last season in both the league and Europe. Last season they were heavily reliant on the goals of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and he had not started this term in quite such decent form, but he is still making a telling contribution. His hold up and link play is providing those around him with opportunities to score and create and he will be a wanted man again in January. They have played four matches at home so far and won all but a 2-0 loss to the imperious Bayern Munich. Take that match out and they have played three, won three and scored nine whilst only conceding one. That is quite some record.
Nurnberg have been a mid table fixture for a couple of years now, but are struggling at the base of the Bundesliga at this stage. They have actually performed far better away from home, picking up their only two victories on the road so far. Both these wins came in the first three matches though and they had lost four on the bounce before last weekends 0-0 draw at home to equally poor Augsburg. They are a team that look bereft of confidence and completely unable to pose a threat to the oppositions goal, which can't be good coming up against such a side as Schalke.
Back Schalke/Schalke Half Time/Full Time at 1.9 with SpreadEx. 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Besiktas, Friday 1800
I had read many pre-season predictions that Kasimpasa would be a side to watch as they had come up in style and added numerous experienced Super Lig players to their ranks over the summer. This has turned out to be the case so far with them slotting into the top division seemlessly and currently sitting in fifth position, above giants Fenerbahce and Besiktas. They have some imperious home form to thank for this position with three wins and a draw from their four matches with nine goals scored and only three conceded. Away from home is a different matter altogether, but they'll be a match for anyone who visits them.
Besiktas failed to beat Trabzonspor at home last weekend to leave us with a very healthy profit from that match. The problem they always seem to have is that they can't rouse themselves to match any side willing to make it tough for them. Trabzon wont let anyone have an easy ride and they showed Besiktas how to earn a point. That result leaves Besik in twelfth position in the table with only one victory at home and one away so far. They still possess enough match winners to beat most sides, but I can't have them as favourites in this at all.
Lay Besiktas at 2.45 on Betfair. 3 points.
Fenerbahce v Antalyaspor, Monday 1800
Another side who have started the season in excellent form are Antalyaspor. They currently sit behind only Galatasaray in the table and have looked very tough to beat. If you remove a 4-0 beating from Gala when they were down to ten men then they have only conceded six goals in eight matches and have scored fourteen, eleven of which at home in four matches. This is absolutely unheard of in Turkey outside of the big boys and has to be respected. They go two wins and two losses away from home to show they are a lot more unpredictable, but the problem they have had has been scoring when away. They have only conceded four goals in four away matches, but scored three.
Fenerbahce have not started the season as well as they would have wanted to with a pronounced target of regaining the league title from Istanbul rivals Galatasaray. They currently lie in sixth position and are not exactly going great in the Europa League either. Issues with star man Alex Da Silva overshadowed a lot of the season so far. The Brazilian captain of the side was dropped after having issues with the management of the club and this upset many players as well as a large contingent of the fanbase. They do go three wins and a draw from their four home matches with eight scored and one conceded to show it is their away form that is the issue. However comma I think it's worth giving Antalya a helping hand as I don't think Fener will find this easy.
Back the Draw -1 on Handicap at 3.6 with Boylesports. 2 points.
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