As I am off to Krakow, Poland for a stag do this weekend the column is going up one day earlier than usual. This might even provide us with some early value as you can often find it if you look hard enough where the odds have not quite settled down for the weekends yet. This follows by far the worst weekend for us in a very long time.
Week Eleven
Newcastle v West Brom - Lose 2 points.
Chelsea v Man Utd - Lose 2 points.
Levante v Granada - Win 3.3 points.
Torino v Parma - Lose 2 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Wolfsburg - Lose 2 points.
Schalke v Nurnberg - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Besiktas - Lose 3 points.
Fenerbahce v Antalyaspor - Lose 2 points.
Total - Lose 11.7 points.
Running Total - Up 1.69 points.
Music this week from Drag The River with Medicine.
Manchester United v Arsenal, Saturday 1245
As has been pointed out in many quarters lately, every major side in England has currently got some serious problems somewhere within their sides. These two are no exception. Man Utd have started the season pretty well in terms of results and having beaten Chelsea on Sunday are now installed as favourites for the title. The problem with this is that every favourite currently has to be a lay for me with the aforementioned issues they all have. United's problem is that they have an ageing defence and the centre of midfield has been weakening for years. The ravages of time have made both Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic look increasingly fragile and when both of these are missing it often leaves United so short they resort to Michael Carrick stepping in at the back. Then you have the ongoing problem of central midfield. I personally am a fan of the Carrick and Darren Fletcher combination that was available until Fletcher's medical issues. But outside of that pairing United still often field Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes at times who have both long since passed their best days. The saving grace is that with Robin Van Persie added to their attack and Javier Hernandez rediscovering his scoring touch they possess possibly the most threatening strikers in the division to outscore opponents.
Arsenal's issue is actually their attack since Van Persie joined United. Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski were brought in to replace the Dutchman, but neither has shown a prolonged period of form yet. The only real positives so far are that the defence had looked steady in most league matches and Santi Cazorla has looked every inch a man with over 50 Spanish caps. There was also the return of Jack Wilshere to midfield against QPR last week where he looked immediately at ease, but naturally he is lacking complete fitness after around eighteen months out. The Gunners have drawn blanks in four league matches already though and really need their forwards to start firing if they are to qualify for the Champions League again next season. They laboured to beat an awful QPR side last weekend after losing to Norwich the week before and also giving Reading a three goal headstart in the League Cup. I personally don't think they should have pushed United's price as far as it has been so will be betting accordingly.
Back Manchester United at 1.7 with 32Red. 3 points.
Sunderland v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
I would not recommend watching this one unless you're some sort of sadist. Sunderland are certainly what I consider a typical Martin O'Neill side now, functional and devoid of flair. It does seem that the Northern Irishman's stock has fallen somewhat since his days of being thrown around as a name for the England managers role or even as Alex Ferguson's successor at Man Utd. This is completely natural as the man has not adjusted at all to the way football has changed. He very rarely seems to look abroad for players, even though the quality of football has regressed in almost all of the British Isles national sides. This inherent distrust seems to me to be based upon wanting players he can count on to make a lot of effort rather than provide occasional inspiration. So far this term Steven Fletcher has dragged them through matches with goals, but this will only get them so far. Thankfully his old side Aston Villa are just as poor, if not worse.
Paul Lambert's decision to leave Norwich City for Aston Villa may seem like it's backfired, but it can't be denied there is more potential at the Midlands outfit. The problem is getting them out of the funk they have all been in since early on in Alex McCleish's awful reign. I watched the match against Norwich last Saturday and it is plain to see there is a lack of top quality for both sides in every area. Villa have spent too much on dross in the recent past and are now paying for that with substandard young players and signings on a budget. Then you also have those like Darren Bent who have lost their places and seem unlikely to hold their tongues when it comes to criticising the new manager. Bent may have a legitimate grievance though as a proven goalscorer being kept out for Lambert's Belgian striker Cristian Benteke who has hardly set the league alight.
Back Under 2.0 Goals at 2.3 with Bet365. 1.5 points.
Granada v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 1845
Two sides who have not started the season well meet in Granada on Sunday evening. Both currently lie just above the relegation spots with eight points each and will be keen to get something from this match. Granada are like Watford in that they are heavily backed by the same family behind Udinese in Italy. This has seen them used as a loan destination for young foreign players that Udinese would like to gain experience/passports who cannot do so at their parent club. This will sometimes see them with a player far beyond their original means, but more often that not sees them with players who don't look like they fit together well at all.
Athletic Bilbao have featured a few times already due to their truly awful form after last seasons achievements. I don't need to go into any more detail than I already have really except to re-emphasise the point that they look doomed under manager Marcelo Bielsa as the players have simply stopped responding to his management. Both sides are very capable of shipping goals so I'll be playing with that in mind.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 with William Hill.
Fiorentina v Cagliari, Sunday 1400
With Stefan Jovetic back from injury this season Fiorentina have looked a far better and more consistent side than they did last year. The Montenegrin forward is a fine player with no little flair and invention as well as a goal threat, I would certainly expect a move for him next summer if he stays fit all season. Possibly their best result so far came just last weekend when they beat Lazio 2-0 at home thanks to goals from the winger Adam Ljajic and veteran striker Luca Toni with a fine effort. They have only conceded one goal at home all season, and that was way back on the first day to leave them with four wins and a draw from five home matches.
Cagliari are sat in mid-table at present, a position they will be very happy to occupy come May too. They have a pretty tight defence and an organised midfield, but sadly this contributes to the lack of goal threat they pose. They have only conceded nine goals in nine matches, but sadly for them have also only scored six themselves. This makes them a side more than capable of frustrating sides, but who find it very difficult to get back into matches. In this Fiorentina side they will come against attackers with sufficient quality to punish them for this.
Back Fiorentina at 1.65 with William Hill. 2.5 points.
Hamburg v Bayern Munich, Saturday 1730
Traditionally two of the giants of the Bundesliga whose fortunes have greatly varied in the recent past. Bayern seem to be establishing another side who are capable of dominating at home and challenging in Europe's premier competitions. Hamburg almost dropped out of the Bundesliga last season and started poorly again before picking up recently. This has been down to the form of four players seemingly. The goalkeeper Rene Adler has excelled, Rafael Van Der Vaart's signing has given a lift to the whole club and forwards Artjoms Rudnevs and Son Heung-Min. This is definitely a punt, but I think after Bayern were beaten last weekend it's worth seeing if they have a hangover.
Lay Bayern Munich at 1.4 on Betfair. 1 point.
Werder Bremen v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
Werder Bremen have often featured in this column since inception as they are always a side capable of scoring or leaking goals and seem to go through pronounced runs of form and out of form. If you can spot these little spells it can be quite profitable to either back or lay them accordingly in the short term. At present they seem to be struggling for form with only one win in the last four matches seeing them slipping to mid-table in the Bundesliga. They did lose one of these matches to the in-form Bayern Munich, but have drawn and lost to the two worst sides in the division also in Augsburg and Greuther Furth. They seem to be struggling to get a foothold in matches and an organised Mainz side is probably not who they would choose to play.
As mentioned Mainz can always be relied upon to have a gameplan and to put in no shortage of effort to achieve a result. The coach Thomas Tuchel has been in the hotseat for a few years now and has established a style of play based on pressing with one or two players given licence to create in attack. The latest player to emerge seems to be Adam Szalai who grabbed a hat-trick against Hoffenheim last week and had looked lively in previous appearances and also grabbing numerous goals. The midfield will look to pressure the Werder side and then feed the Hungarian as quickly as possible. Mainz are also on a current unbeaten four match streak and are looking very tight at the back in general.
Lay Werder Bremen at 2.07 on Betfair. 2 points.
Genclerbirligi v Elazigspor, Sunday 1400
So far this season in the Super Lig there have been a few surprise sides at the top of the table. One of these has been Genclerbirligi who have only lost one match and currently sit in third position. They drew with Galatasaray not too long ago at home to continue a fine run which sees them with two wins and two draws at home this season. More impressive though is the fact that they have scored a whopping eleven goals in those four home matches and conceded five. They have only failed to find the net in two matches so far this season, both away, and this is due to them having numerous goal threats throughout the side. They look likely to continue in a lofty position so long as they can keep scoring goals in a normally tight league.
Elazigspor were promoted over the summer and have looked well out of their depth at the top level. They are still yet to win this season and are at serious risk of being cut adrift at the base of the league. They simply lack quality throughout the side. All you have to do is glance at their goals for and against to see this borne out, they have only scored five goals and conceded seventeen in nine matches. This spells doom for them and how Gencler are available at current prices is beyond me.
Back Genclerbirligi at 1.83 with Stan James. 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Trabzonspor, Monday 1800
Another Monday night match in Turkey to extend the weekend. Last week I thought Fenerbahce might struggle to cope with the seasons surprise package Antalyaspor, but even I didn't see them being picked off as they were. In the early stages Fener looked like they were struggling to find a killer touch, but were having most of the play. Then just before half time two lightening breaks saw Antalyaspor carrying a 2-0 lead into the second half. Their striker Lamine Diarra looked absolutely unplayable for both goals, he shrugged off defenders and finished coolly for both. They are now level on points with Galatasaray and could even go top with a win as Gala have a tough match at Istanbul BB. This should see them with no little motivation to break down stubborn Trabzonspor.
Trabzon are another side who have featured due to their search for a new way of playing after the departure of key striker Burak Yilmaz over the summer to Gala. They have been set up fantastically in defence for a few seasons now so they are still very tough to beat, but their lack of goals is causing them to draw too many matches. They have drawn four of nine matches so far and only scored five goals. Antalya look capable of soaking up pressure just fine so as long as they can get a couple of chances they should be fine here.
Back Antalyaspor at 2.6 with StanJames. 2 points.
Wednesday, 31 October 2012
Thursday, 25 October 2012
Consistency Is Key...
It's that time of the week again and last weekend had us again back in decent profit after a couple of small losses on the bounce. My intention is obviously to provide as many winning tips as possible, but I would be very happy to continue with a profit all season as we've had some fun then and also made money whilst we're at it. Now, isn't that a feel good message?
Week Ten
Tottenham v Chelsea - Lose 2 points.
Fulham v Aston Villa - Win 2.49 points.
Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid - Win 2.4 points.
Juventus v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke - Lose 2.5 points.
Hamburg v Stuttgart - Lose 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray - Win 3 points.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor - Win 3.75 points.
Total - Win 2.14 points.
Running Total - Up 13.39 points.
Music this week from The Bouncing Souls with True Believer.
Newcastle v West Brom, Sunday 1500
Two teams who have surprised for different reasons meet at St James Park on Sunday afternoon. Newcastle almost made the Champions League last season after going against nearly everyone's predictions and keeping up their form for the entire season. The spine of the side was particularly strong from the excellent young goalkeeper Tim Krul through to the forwards Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse from January onwards. Add to this the hugely improved centre back Fabricio Collocini and central midfield pairing of Cheik Tiote and Yohan Cabaye with flourishes from Hatem Ben Arfa too and it's a very decent first eleven. Sadly for their fans there have been injuries and poor form meaning they look nothing like the side they were last year. Coloccini has been injured, Ben Arfa out of form, Tiote a loose cannon and Demba Ba still seems in a strop that Papiss Cisse is often picked as the focal point of the attack. They have goals in them still, but they seem far more liable to leak them than they were.
West Brom have started the season fantastically well and made the appointment of perennial coach Steve Clarke as manager look an inspired decision. Everywhere the Scot has been as a coach there has been a recognised improvement in the defensive side of their game and it is no surprise that West Brom look secure at the back and organised throughout the team. Where they have improved also is in attack. Peter Odemwingie was always a threat when in form and he has looked good all season so far, Shane Long flickered last term and is looking a threat whenever he plays this season and the loan signing of Roman Lukaku looks a great bit of business. Having these three threats, and all offering different attributes, bodes very well for the season as they can change tact during matches by changing the forwards. I think Newcastle are a very short price looking at how both sides have played so far this season.
Lay Newcastle at 2.0 on Betfair. 2 points.
Chelsea v Manchester United, Sunday 1600
Both sides looked poor in defence for long spells in their Champions League matches this midweek. Chelsea had what may well turn out to be their toughest match in the group stage this week when away in Shakhtar Donetsk. The Ukrainian side have long been threatening to break out and do something in the Champions League and they made a statement against Chelsea. They won 2-1 and their attackers made Chelsea's defence look very ordinary. Whilst this should be of some concern for manager Roberto Di Matteo, he can take comfort in the fact that his attack has also looked lethal this season and there are few, if any, teams in the Premier League with an attack in as good form as Shakhtar's. Last weekend against Tottenham Chelsea allowed their London rivals over twenty shots, but still scored four goals themselves to come away with a 4-2 victory. They are currently passing every test put in front of them in domestic action.
If we're talking about poor defences then Man Utd's has to be discussed. They were at home to Sporting Braga of Portugal this week and contrived to go two goals behind and make a very ordinary side look brilliant. That they came back to win 3-2 should not disguise the truly horrendous display put in by all but their attackers. Jonny Evans may have scored, but he was once again showed to be no leader at the back and will be looking forward to Rio Ferdinand returning to partner him instead of Michael Carrick. Rafael still gives away chances, although he has improved, but Alex Buttner the new signing at left back looked dreadful defensively and a long way off replacing the declining Patrice Evra. With Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie fortunately looking very good up front they will think they have a chance of scoring, but I think you have to back a Chelsea side in such good domestic form.
Back Chelsea at 2.4 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Levante v Granada, Sunday 1500
This one is mostly because Coral seem to be taking a real punt on laying Levante. The market has almost entirely moved to below even money and they are still holding their price. Levante outperformed predictions last season and qualified for the Europa League in the end. They did this on the back of a very strong team ethic and everyone at the club pulling together. They have an intimidating little ground in industrial Valencia which sees them so far with three wins and a draw at home this season. Granada are still struggling to move away from the bottom after only just surviving last season by the skin of their teeth. They have won one and lost three away from home.
Back Levante at 2.1 with Coral. 3 points.
Torino v Parma, Sunday 1400
My one pick from Italy this week has Parma travelling to Turin to play Torino. Torino were promoted from Serie B over the summer and seem to have settled back in to the top league just fine. That they have always been the biggest side outside of the huge names in Italy has helped them secure funds to improve the side and also to attract players. They have also always drawn a very passionate support which makes matches against them at home tough for visiting sides in a country where such things are not that common. This has sadly not had the desired effect so far this term with a home record of won one, drawn one and lost two. They have scored and conceded three goals though to show that they are not being outclassed. They will have a good opportunity to get another win on the board here.
Parma have long since slipped from being challengers for the title in the late 90's and early 00's. Back then they were being bankrolled by Parmalat and since they went out of business the side has had to make do with a team without stars. They are a perennial mid tabel side now who occasionally slip nearer to the relegation fight. I doubt whether they will go down any time soon though as they are very well organised and excellent at home. The problem has been away form for many seasons now, in a similar vein to Fulham in the Premier League. This season has been no different with a draw and three losses so far. With only two scored and eight conceded in those four away matches Torino's tight defence should be able to cope.
Back Torino at 2.25 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1430
First up from Germany is promoted Fortuna Dusseldorf hosting Wolfsburg. Dusseldorf have started their season pretty well on their return to the Bundesliga. They sit happily mid table and have an excellent away record so far in particular, although they are yet to win a match at home. At home they go with three draws and a loss from four matches whereas they have won two, drawn one and lost one away from home. They are also coming off the back of three very tough matches with only a draw to show from them. They lost 5-0 at home to Bayern Munich last weekend too to compound a poor period. I could make a case though that that result with have little effect as they would not have expected to get anything from the match, let alone with Bayern in such excellent form.
Wolfsburg have started the season in dreadful form. The appointment of Felix Magath last season may well have had some immediate rewards in terms of steering them clear of the relegation zone, but it is now looking a terrible choice. The German was something of a hotshot around a decade ago, but his stock has fallen a long way since then. There was a drugs scandal around him at one point and all his eccentricities have since come to the fore. He is a manager who believes in constant punishment when players are out of form to somehow get a response out of them, but this is clearly not working and most of his players now seem to be in active revolt against the manager. They sit bottom of the table and rightfully so.
Back Fortuna Dusseldorf at 2.37 with William Hill. 2 points.
Schalke 04 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
Last weekend I put a fair stake on Borussia Dortmund to beat derby rivals Schalke at home only to be let down. I may well have underestimated this Royal Blue side so far. I had their position written down as slightly false in the league table, but having seen their two performances against Dortmund and Arsenal I think they may well be ready to kick on from last season in both the league and Europe. Last season they were heavily reliant on the goals of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and he had not started this term in quite such decent form, but he is still making a telling contribution. His hold up and link play is providing those around him with opportunities to score and create and he will be a wanted man again in January. They have played four matches at home so far and won all but a 2-0 loss to the imperious Bayern Munich. Take that match out and they have played three, won three and scored nine whilst only conceding one. That is quite some record.
Nurnberg have been a mid table fixture for a couple of years now, but are struggling at the base of the Bundesliga at this stage. They have actually performed far better away from home, picking up their only two victories on the road so far. Both these wins came in the first three matches though and they had lost four on the bounce before last weekends 0-0 draw at home to equally poor Augsburg. They are a team that look bereft of confidence and completely unable to pose a threat to the oppositions goal, which can't be good coming up against such a side as Schalke.
Back Schalke/Schalke Half Time/Full Time at 1.9 with SpreadEx. 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Besiktas, Friday 1800
I had read many pre-season predictions that Kasimpasa would be a side to watch as they had come up in style and added numerous experienced Super Lig players to their ranks over the summer. This has turned out to be the case so far with them slotting into the top division seemlessly and currently sitting in fifth position, above giants Fenerbahce and Besiktas. They have some imperious home form to thank for this position with three wins and a draw from their four matches with nine goals scored and only three conceded. Away from home is a different matter altogether, but they'll be a match for anyone who visits them.
Besiktas failed to beat Trabzonspor at home last weekend to leave us with a very healthy profit from that match. The problem they always seem to have is that they can't rouse themselves to match any side willing to make it tough for them. Trabzon wont let anyone have an easy ride and they showed Besiktas how to earn a point. That result leaves Besik in twelfth position in the table with only one victory at home and one away so far. They still possess enough match winners to beat most sides, but I can't have them as favourites in this at all.
Lay Besiktas at 2.45 on Betfair. 3 points.
Fenerbahce v Antalyaspor, Monday 1800
Another side who have started the season in excellent form are Antalyaspor. They currently sit behind only Galatasaray in the table and have looked very tough to beat. If you remove a 4-0 beating from Gala when they were down to ten men then they have only conceded six goals in eight matches and have scored fourteen, eleven of which at home in four matches. This is absolutely unheard of in Turkey outside of the big boys and has to be respected. They go two wins and two losses away from home to show they are a lot more unpredictable, but the problem they have had has been scoring when away. They have only conceded four goals in four away matches, but scored three.
Fenerbahce have not started the season as well as they would have wanted to with a pronounced target of regaining the league title from Istanbul rivals Galatasaray. They currently lie in sixth position and are not exactly going great in the Europa League either. Issues with star man Alex Da Silva overshadowed a lot of the season so far. The Brazilian captain of the side was dropped after having issues with the management of the club and this upset many players as well as a large contingent of the fanbase. They do go three wins and a draw from their four home matches with eight scored and one conceded to show it is their away form that is the issue. However comma I think it's worth giving Antalya a helping hand as I don't think Fener will find this easy.
Back the Draw -1 on Handicap at 3.6 with Boylesports. 2 points.
Week Ten
Tottenham v Chelsea - Lose 2 points.
Fulham v Aston Villa - Win 2.49 points.
Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid - Win 2.4 points.
Juventus v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke - Lose 2.5 points.
Hamburg v Stuttgart - Lose 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray - Win 3 points.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor - Win 3.75 points.
Total - Win 2.14 points.
Running Total - Up 13.39 points.
Music this week from The Bouncing Souls with True Believer.
Newcastle v West Brom, Sunday 1500
Two teams who have surprised for different reasons meet at St James Park on Sunday afternoon. Newcastle almost made the Champions League last season after going against nearly everyone's predictions and keeping up their form for the entire season. The spine of the side was particularly strong from the excellent young goalkeeper Tim Krul through to the forwards Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse from January onwards. Add to this the hugely improved centre back Fabricio Collocini and central midfield pairing of Cheik Tiote and Yohan Cabaye with flourishes from Hatem Ben Arfa too and it's a very decent first eleven. Sadly for their fans there have been injuries and poor form meaning they look nothing like the side they were last year. Coloccini has been injured, Ben Arfa out of form, Tiote a loose cannon and Demba Ba still seems in a strop that Papiss Cisse is often picked as the focal point of the attack. They have goals in them still, but they seem far more liable to leak them than they were.
West Brom have started the season fantastically well and made the appointment of perennial coach Steve Clarke as manager look an inspired decision. Everywhere the Scot has been as a coach there has been a recognised improvement in the defensive side of their game and it is no surprise that West Brom look secure at the back and organised throughout the team. Where they have improved also is in attack. Peter Odemwingie was always a threat when in form and he has looked good all season so far, Shane Long flickered last term and is looking a threat whenever he plays this season and the loan signing of Roman Lukaku looks a great bit of business. Having these three threats, and all offering different attributes, bodes very well for the season as they can change tact during matches by changing the forwards. I think Newcastle are a very short price looking at how both sides have played so far this season.
Lay Newcastle at 2.0 on Betfair. 2 points.
Chelsea v Manchester United, Sunday 1600
Both sides looked poor in defence for long spells in their Champions League matches this midweek. Chelsea had what may well turn out to be their toughest match in the group stage this week when away in Shakhtar Donetsk. The Ukrainian side have long been threatening to break out and do something in the Champions League and they made a statement against Chelsea. They won 2-1 and their attackers made Chelsea's defence look very ordinary. Whilst this should be of some concern for manager Roberto Di Matteo, he can take comfort in the fact that his attack has also looked lethal this season and there are few, if any, teams in the Premier League with an attack in as good form as Shakhtar's. Last weekend against Tottenham Chelsea allowed their London rivals over twenty shots, but still scored four goals themselves to come away with a 4-2 victory. They are currently passing every test put in front of them in domestic action.
If we're talking about poor defences then Man Utd's has to be discussed. They were at home to Sporting Braga of Portugal this week and contrived to go two goals behind and make a very ordinary side look brilliant. That they came back to win 3-2 should not disguise the truly horrendous display put in by all but their attackers. Jonny Evans may have scored, but he was once again showed to be no leader at the back and will be looking forward to Rio Ferdinand returning to partner him instead of Michael Carrick. Rafael still gives away chances, although he has improved, but Alex Buttner the new signing at left back looked dreadful defensively and a long way off replacing the declining Patrice Evra. With Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie fortunately looking very good up front they will think they have a chance of scoring, but I think you have to back a Chelsea side in such good domestic form.
Back Chelsea at 2.4 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Levante v Granada, Sunday 1500
This one is mostly because Coral seem to be taking a real punt on laying Levante. The market has almost entirely moved to below even money and they are still holding their price. Levante outperformed predictions last season and qualified for the Europa League in the end. They did this on the back of a very strong team ethic and everyone at the club pulling together. They have an intimidating little ground in industrial Valencia which sees them so far with three wins and a draw at home this season. Granada are still struggling to move away from the bottom after only just surviving last season by the skin of their teeth. They have won one and lost three away from home.
Back Levante at 2.1 with Coral. 3 points.
Torino v Parma, Sunday 1400
My one pick from Italy this week has Parma travelling to Turin to play Torino. Torino were promoted from Serie B over the summer and seem to have settled back in to the top league just fine. That they have always been the biggest side outside of the huge names in Italy has helped them secure funds to improve the side and also to attract players. They have also always drawn a very passionate support which makes matches against them at home tough for visiting sides in a country where such things are not that common. This has sadly not had the desired effect so far this term with a home record of won one, drawn one and lost two. They have scored and conceded three goals though to show that they are not being outclassed. They will have a good opportunity to get another win on the board here.
Parma have long since slipped from being challengers for the title in the late 90's and early 00's. Back then they were being bankrolled by Parmalat and since they went out of business the side has had to make do with a team without stars. They are a perennial mid tabel side now who occasionally slip nearer to the relegation fight. I doubt whether they will go down any time soon though as they are very well organised and excellent at home. The problem has been away form for many seasons now, in a similar vein to Fulham in the Premier League. This season has been no different with a draw and three losses so far. With only two scored and eight conceded in those four away matches Torino's tight defence should be able to cope.
Back Torino at 2.25 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1430
First up from Germany is promoted Fortuna Dusseldorf hosting Wolfsburg. Dusseldorf have started their season pretty well on their return to the Bundesliga. They sit happily mid table and have an excellent away record so far in particular, although they are yet to win a match at home. At home they go with three draws and a loss from four matches whereas they have won two, drawn one and lost one away from home. They are also coming off the back of three very tough matches with only a draw to show from them. They lost 5-0 at home to Bayern Munich last weekend too to compound a poor period. I could make a case though that that result with have little effect as they would not have expected to get anything from the match, let alone with Bayern in such excellent form.
Wolfsburg have started the season in dreadful form. The appointment of Felix Magath last season may well have had some immediate rewards in terms of steering them clear of the relegation zone, but it is now looking a terrible choice. The German was something of a hotshot around a decade ago, but his stock has fallen a long way since then. There was a drugs scandal around him at one point and all his eccentricities have since come to the fore. He is a manager who believes in constant punishment when players are out of form to somehow get a response out of them, but this is clearly not working and most of his players now seem to be in active revolt against the manager. They sit bottom of the table and rightfully so.
Back Fortuna Dusseldorf at 2.37 with William Hill. 2 points.
Schalke 04 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
Last weekend I put a fair stake on Borussia Dortmund to beat derby rivals Schalke at home only to be let down. I may well have underestimated this Royal Blue side so far. I had their position written down as slightly false in the league table, but having seen their two performances against Dortmund and Arsenal I think they may well be ready to kick on from last season in both the league and Europe. Last season they were heavily reliant on the goals of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and he had not started this term in quite such decent form, but he is still making a telling contribution. His hold up and link play is providing those around him with opportunities to score and create and he will be a wanted man again in January. They have played four matches at home so far and won all but a 2-0 loss to the imperious Bayern Munich. Take that match out and they have played three, won three and scored nine whilst only conceding one. That is quite some record.
Nurnberg have been a mid table fixture for a couple of years now, but are struggling at the base of the Bundesliga at this stage. They have actually performed far better away from home, picking up their only two victories on the road so far. Both these wins came in the first three matches though and they had lost four on the bounce before last weekends 0-0 draw at home to equally poor Augsburg. They are a team that look bereft of confidence and completely unable to pose a threat to the oppositions goal, which can't be good coming up against such a side as Schalke.
Back Schalke/Schalke Half Time/Full Time at 1.9 with SpreadEx. 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Besiktas, Friday 1800
I had read many pre-season predictions that Kasimpasa would be a side to watch as they had come up in style and added numerous experienced Super Lig players to their ranks over the summer. This has turned out to be the case so far with them slotting into the top division seemlessly and currently sitting in fifth position, above giants Fenerbahce and Besiktas. They have some imperious home form to thank for this position with three wins and a draw from their four matches with nine goals scored and only three conceded. Away from home is a different matter altogether, but they'll be a match for anyone who visits them.
Besiktas failed to beat Trabzonspor at home last weekend to leave us with a very healthy profit from that match. The problem they always seem to have is that they can't rouse themselves to match any side willing to make it tough for them. Trabzon wont let anyone have an easy ride and they showed Besiktas how to earn a point. That result leaves Besik in twelfth position in the table with only one victory at home and one away so far. They still possess enough match winners to beat most sides, but I can't have them as favourites in this at all.
Lay Besiktas at 2.45 on Betfair. 3 points.
Fenerbahce v Antalyaspor, Monday 1800
Another side who have started the season in excellent form are Antalyaspor. They currently sit behind only Galatasaray in the table and have looked very tough to beat. If you remove a 4-0 beating from Gala when they were down to ten men then they have only conceded six goals in eight matches and have scored fourteen, eleven of which at home in four matches. This is absolutely unheard of in Turkey outside of the big boys and has to be respected. They go two wins and two losses away from home to show they are a lot more unpredictable, but the problem they have had has been scoring when away. They have only conceded four goals in four away matches, but scored three.
Fenerbahce have not started the season as well as they would have wanted to with a pronounced target of regaining the league title from Istanbul rivals Galatasaray. They currently lie in sixth position and are not exactly going great in the Europa League either. Issues with star man Alex Da Silva overshadowed a lot of the season so far. The Brazilian captain of the side was dropped after having issues with the management of the club and this upset many players as well as a large contingent of the fanbase. They do go three wins and a draw from their four home matches with eight scored and one conceded to show it is their away form that is the issue. However comma I think it's worth giving Antalya a helping hand as I don't think Fener will find this easy.
Back the Draw -1 on Handicap at 3.6 with Boylesports. 2 points.
Thursday, 18 October 2012
Back To The Day Jobs...
Not quite as successful a time on the internationals in this break as many of the favourites failed to beat the handicaps set for them and laboured in a lot of cases. If you were also following @TopTopTips on the Twitter you will have gained some back on this Tuesday's matches.
Week Nine
Russia v Portugal - Win 3.74 points.
Serbia v Belgium- Lose 3 points.
Switzerland v Norway - Lose 3 points.
Colombia v Paraguay - Win 1.71 points.
Ecuador v Chile - Win 1.9 points.
Treble - Lose 2 points.
Total - Lose 0.65 points.
Running Total - Win 11.25 points.
Music this week from Nekromantix with Dead Girls Don't Cry.
Tottenham v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
First up this week is the London derby between Tottenham and Chelsea in the early kick off on Saturday. Extra needle is added to an already highly fuelled match with the presence of Chelsea's former manager Andres Villas Boas in the oppositions dugout. Although in the main the media have tried to portray the Portugese as some sort of bumbling clown since he dared upset the senior Chelsea players and 'stole' their beloved Harry Redknapp's job, he has had a great start at Spurs. It may have been a bit turgid in the opening couple of matches, but since then they have really started playing and got a brilliant win at Manchester Untied to confirm this. They have now won the last four matches on the spin and should go fine for the forseeable future, injuries permitting. This is the worry for Villas Boas, he has a squad very thin in certain areas. Fortunately so far players like Jermaine Defoe are grabbing their chance to be back staring and putting the effort in to show they are worthy of a place in the side in the long term.
Chelsea have been the form team so far this season. They are seemingly back to grinding out victories when needed and with the addition of Eden Hazard and form of Juan Mata they also now possess players who can open opposition defences up. Frank Lampard has now also been assigned a less advanced role to compensate for his legs now being a lot less likely to withstand an entire match going up and down the pitch. With both he and John Obi Mikel in front of the defence it does give me a feeling they are there to be attacked. I'm yet to be convinced Mikel is anything but plain average and Lampard is not known for his defensive nous leaving John Terry and David Luiz exposed at times. A nippy forward like Defoe may well get openings with Gareth Bale laying the chances on. I think it's worth a poke at a Spurs side in very good form.
Back Tottenham at 2.68 on Betfair. 2 points.
Fulham v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Fulham look a much more attacking side under Martin Jol than they were under previous managers Roy Hodgson and Mark Hughes. He has benefitted from being able to build from a backline that has been pretty settled for two years and has the organisation that comes from experience of playing together. The loss of midfielder Moussa Dembele late in the transfer window to Tottenham was definitely a blow, but they don't seem to have been thrown too far off course because of it. This could in no small part be credited to the signing of Dimitar Berbatov. The Bulgarian has never been short of skill or technique and Jol has chosen to play him in a withdrawn linking role which seems to be having a good effect on the side. Play is all going through him and this also no doubt helps a player who likes to be in control of play and tempo. Their away form is still to be worked out, but they're very good at home.
Unfortunately for new manager Paul Lambert the problems Alex McCleish left behind him when departing have not been easy to fix. There is still a lack of effort or flair at times and Lambert really needs to eradicate this if Villa are to avoid once again getting sucked into a relegation battle. With the latest rumour emerging that Darren Bent has been very upset by his dropping for new signing Cristian Benteke in attack it seems the atmosphere is only going to be poor until January when Lambert will hope to remove some deadwood and unhappy players from his squad. Villa have only won one match this season, and none away from Villa Park, and I fail to see how they will get anything here.
Back Fulham at 1.83 at William Hill. 3 points.
Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 2030
An interesting test for an Atletico Madrid side who are still unbeaten and are joint top of La Liga with Barcelona. Real Sociedad have won three from three so far, but when you look at the sides they have been up against it makes it a little less intimidating. They have beaten an out of form Zaragoza, the currently awful Atletic Bilbao and newly promoted Celta Vigo in a narrow win. The bookmakers still seem nervous of the notoriously flaky Atletico when compiling, but I think they could well be the real deal if they can keep their star men fit. This is especially true of Colombian striker Falcao who is probably the world's most in demand pure striker presently. He will get chances against this defence and he will take them too.
Back Atletico Madrid at 2.2 with Boylesports. 2 points.
Juventus v Napoli, Saturday 1945
A top of the table clash between Juventus and Napoli on Saturday evening in Serie A. Both sides currently remain undefeated going into this match and sit joint top on nineteen points apiece. Juventus may not have manager Antonio Conte on the bench for matches at present whilst he serves a ban from before his current job, but they have nevertheless started in imperious form. They are built on a tight defence and midfield with attackers who are all capable of firing when in the side. They do not possess loads of flair though and have often relied upon Fabio Quagliarella to come on in games where they are struggling for a bit of his magic to decide matches. I think this could well be a tight match that may well end in a stalemate due to neither coach wanting to lose.
Napoli have really come on in leaps and bounds in the last three seasons since manager Walter Mazzari came on board and introduced something of a 3-5-2 system back into Serie A. He has been aided in no small part by a brilliant scouting network in South America unearthing him gems in attack like the now departed Ezequiel Lavezzi, Eduardo Vargas and the prolific striker Edinson Cavani. Cavani is only really rivalled by Falcoa in Spain for me as an out and out striker and would be a great signing for any side that could prize him away. There is also influential captain Marek Hamsik in midfield bombing up and donw and popping up with his share of goals too.Basically it is a very well rounded team that is yet to concede on the road this season and will win Serie A sooner or later if they don't sell off all their prized assets.
Lay Juventus at 1.75 on Betfair. 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
The two form sides in the second half of the Bundesliga last season play in Dortmund this Saturday afternoon. Dortmund seem to have developed a habit of having to play their way into seasons and catch up with Bayern Munich, who traditionally go off like a rocket, and this season has been no exception. They struggled to justify very short prices early on and only now are beginning to show what they are capable of. This has possibly been a lot to do with replacing Shinji Kagawa with Marco Reus in attacking midfield. The Japanese player was often heavily involved in everything at the point of attack last season and the side has finally begun to look like they now know how to utilise Reus' more direct style. I think the young German is a better player and will show that Dortmund have improved the side with his signing. The international break has seen both sides lose players, but Dortmund's have had very good games, in particular Reus, and should come back full of energy.
Schalke were tipped by many to kick on this season and join Dortmund and Bayern at the peak of the table making a real challenge. Unfortunately the form of Bayern has seen them already seven points clear of Schalke. Scalke do currently lie two points ahead of Dortmund, but I have yet to see anything to suggest they are playing well enough to maintain a challenge, they look lethargic at times. Last season they were very reliant on Klaas Jan Huntelaar's excellent form in front of goal and with him not quite getting going yet they don't look as able to kill teams off, which may well haunt them at a later date in tough matches such as this.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.7 with Blue Square. 2.5 points.
Hamburg v Stuttgart, Sunday 1630
Hamburg were finally a backable proposition for me in my last blog and they came out on top at excellent odds of around 2.7 for us. After eighteen of the worst months in their history it finally seems that they are capable of decent performances. In saying this they have been reliant upon goalkeeper Rene Adler justifying the potential he is often cited as having and keeping them in some matches. Then there is the signing of Rafael Van Der Vaart which seems to have given the whole club the lift it was designed to do. They are by no means a club about to push right on, but they're worth following for now whilst spirits and results are so good I think.
Stuttgart tend to start badly and sometimes do not get going until after xmas, this looks like it may be one of those seasons. They have only won one match so far and their goal difference reads scored seven and conceded fourteen so far. They are in trouble at the wrong end of the table and don't look likely to turn it around soon. There needs to be some sort of change at the club, be that manager or more senior, as the whole place is devoid of anything positive at present. I'm not a huge believer in betting purely on confidence, but the gulf in the atmospheres at both clubs tempts me here.
Back Hamburg with Coral at 2.3. 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray, Friday 1800
First up in the Super Lig is a very tough away game for reigning champions Galatasaray at Genclerbirligi. Gencler have had a very good home record over the past few seasons and possess enough firepower to find themselves towards the top of the table and with an outside chance of UEFA competitions most years. This season they have started very well and currently sit third in the table and actually able to leapfrog Gala with a home victory. They are unbeaten at home in three matches and have scored eight whilst only conceding two to demonstrate how well they can play. This is definitely not the match Gala would want with minimal time with their players after many were in international action on Tuesday night.
As mentioned Gala always lose numerous players to international duty and in a league where this is not the case for most clubs this can provide the lesser sides with an improved chance of victory. Gala currently sit top of the table, but signed off with a loss at Orduspor before the break and were not looking at all assured at the back all season. The loss of club captain Tomas Ujfalusi has seen the defence noticeably less organised and they are conceding far too many to justify short prices away from home like this.
Lay Galatasaray at 2.0 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
The 'other two' in Turkey's big four meet on Sunday evening in Istanbul. Besiktas for me are roughly similar to Tottenham of seasons gone in that they have the talent, but are not a team to stake your house on. They are unreliable basically. There will be weeks where they blow sides out of the water, normally when their high wage experienced foreign players can be bothered, and then they'll surrender to a poor side away the next match. In this match they should be more likely to give a good account of themselves due to the calibre of the opponents and the fact they are always a better side when at home in Istanbul. They are struggling a bit for goals though and Trabzonspor don't give many away so they may have a task on their hands.
As mentioned Trabzon have kept it very tight at the back so far this season, possibly to over compensate for the loss of the man responsible for over half their goals last season. Burak Yilmaz has left a large hole in attack for the Black Sea outfit and they are yet to find out how to replace his goals. They do sit in sixth position in the table however comma this is mainly due to three wins and a draw from four home matches. They are yet to win away from home and have two draws and a loss away so far. I'm not sure that Beisktas have the firepower to beat the leagues best defence so I'm going to split stakes on two markets for this one.
Back the Draw at 3.25 with BetFred. 1 point.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.75 with Bet365. 2 points.
Week Nine
Russia v Portugal - Win 3.74 points.
Serbia v Belgium- Lose 3 points.
Switzerland v Norway - Lose 3 points.
Colombia v Paraguay - Win 1.71 points.
Ecuador v Chile - Win 1.9 points.
Treble - Lose 2 points.
Total - Lose 0.65 points.
Running Total - Win 11.25 points.
Music this week from Nekromantix with Dead Girls Don't Cry.
Tottenham v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
First up this week is the London derby between Tottenham and Chelsea in the early kick off on Saturday. Extra needle is added to an already highly fuelled match with the presence of Chelsea's former manager Andres Villas Boas in the oppositions dugout. Although in the main the media have tried to portray the Portugese as some sort of bumbling clown since he dared upset the senior Chelsea players and 'stole' their beloved Harry Redknapp's job, he has had a great start at Spurs. It may have been a bit turgid in the opening couple of matches, but since then they have really started playing and got a brilliant win at Manchester Untied to confirm this. They have now won the last four matches on the spin and should go fine for the forseeable future, injuries permitting. This is the worry for Villas Boas, he has a squad very thin in certain areas. Fortunately so far players like Jermaine Defoe are grabbing their chance to be back staring and putting the effort in to show they are worthy of a place in the side in the long term.
Chelsea have been the form team so far this season. They are seemingly back to grinding out victories when needed and with the addition of Eden Hazard and form of Juan Mata they also now possess players who can open opposition defences up. Frank Lampard has now also been assigned a less advanced role to compensate for his legs now being a lot less likely to withstand an entire match going up and down the pitch. With both he and John Obi Mikel in front of the defence it does give me a feeling they are there to be attacked. I'm yet to be convinced Mikel is anything but plain average and Lampard is not known for his defensive nous leaving John Terry and David Luiz exposed at times. A nippy forward like Defoe may well get openings with Gareth Bale laying the chances on. I think it's worth a poke at a Spurs side in very good form.
Back Tottenham at 2.68 on Betfair. 2 points.
Fulham v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Fulham look a much more attacking side under Martin Jol than they were under previous managers Roy Hodgson and Mark Hughes. He has benefitted from being able to build from a backline that has been pretty settled for two years and has the organisation that comes from experience of playing together. The loss of midfielder Moussa Dembele late in the transfer window to Tottenham was definitely a blow, but they don't seem to have been thrown too far off course because of it. This could in no small part be credited to the signing of Dimitar Berbatov. The Bulgarian has never been short of skill or technique and Jol has chosen to play him in a withdrawn linking role which seems to be having a good effect on the side. Play is all going through him and this also no doubt helps a player who likes to be in control of play and tempo. Their away form is still to be worked out, but they're very good at home.
Unfortunately for new manager Paul Lambert the problems Alex McCleish left behind him when departing have not been easy to fix. There is still a lack of effort or flair at times and Lambert really needs to eradicate this if Villa are to avoid once again getting sucked into a relegation battle. With the latest rumour emerging that Darren Bent has been very upset by his dropping for new signing Cristian Benteke in attack it seems the atmosphere is only going to be poor until January when Lambert will hope to remove some deadwood and unhappy players from his squad. Villa have only won one match this season, and none away from Villa Park, and I fail to see how they will get anything here.
Back Fulham at 1.83 at William Hill. 3 points.
Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 2030
An interesting test for an Atletico Madrid side who are still unbeaten and are joint top of La Liga with Barcelona. Real Sociedad have won three from three so far, but when you look at the sides they have been up against it makes it a little less intimidating. They have beaten an out of form Zaragoza, the currently awful Atletic Bilbao and newly promoted Celta Vigo in a narrow win. The bookmakers still seem nervous of the notoriously flaky Atletico when compiling, but I think they could well be the real deal if they can keep their star men fit. This is especially true of Colombian striker Falcao who is probably the world's most in demand pure striker presently. He will get chances against this defence and he will take them too.
Back Atletico Madrid at 2.2 with Boylesports. 2 points.
Juventus v Napoli, Saturday 1945
A top of the table clash between Juventus and Napoli on Saturday evening in Serie A. Both sides currently remain undefeated going into this match and sit joint top on nineteen points apiece. Juventus may not have manager Antonio Conte on the bench for matches at present whilst he serves a ban from before his current job, but they have nevertheless started in imperious form. They are built on a tight defence and midfield with attackers who are all capable of firing when in the side. They do not possess loads of flair though and have often relied upon Fabio Quagliarella to come on in games where they are struggling for a bit of his magic to decide matches. I think this could well be a tight match that may well end in a stalemate due to neither coach wanting to lose.
Napoli have really come on in leaps and bounds in the last three seasons since manager Walter Mazzari came on board and introduced something of a 3-5-2 system back into Serie A. He has been aided in no small part by a brilliant scouting network in South America unearthing him gems in attack like the now departed Ezequiel Lavezzi, Eduardo Vargas and the prolific striker Edinson Cavani. Cavani is only really rivalled by Falcoa in Spain for me as an out and out striker and would be a great signing for any side that could prize him away. There is also influential captain Marek Hamsik in midfield bombing up and donw and popping up with his share of goals too.Basically it is a very well rounded team that is yet to concede on the road this season and will win Serie A sooner or later if they don't sell off all their prized assets.
Lay Juventus at 1.75 on Betfair. 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
The two form sides in the second half of the Bundesliga last season play in Dortmund this Saturday afternoon. Dortmund seem to have developed a habit of having to play their way into seasons and catch up with Bayern Munich, who traditionally go off like a rocket, and this season has been no exception. They struggled to justify very short prices early on and only now are beginning to show what they are capable of. This has possibly been a lot to do with replacing Shinji Kagawa with Marco Reus in attacking midfield. The Japanese player was often heavily involved in everything at the point of attack last season and the side has finally begun to look like they now know how to utilise Reus' more direct style. I think the young German is a better player and will show that Dortmund have improved the side with his signing. The international break has seen both sides lose players, but Dortmund's have had very good games, in particular Reus, and should come back full of energy.
Schalke were tipped by many to kick on this season and join Dortmund and Bayern at the peak of the table making a real challenge. Unfortunately the form of Bayern has seen them already seven points clear of Schalke. Scalke do currently lie two points ahead of Dortmund, but I have yet to see anything to suggest they are playing well enough to maintain a challenge, they look lethargic at times. Last season they were very reliant on Klaas Jan Huntelaar's excellent form in front of goal and with him not quite getting going yet they don't look as able to kill teams off, which may well haunt them at a later date in tough matches such as this.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.7 with Blue Square. 2.5 points.
Hamburg v Stuttgart, Sunday 1630
Hamburg were finally a backable proposition for me in my last blog and they came out on top at excellent odds of around 2.7 for us. After eighteen of the worst months in their history it finally seems that they are capable of decent performances. In saying this they have been reliant upon goalkeeper Rene Adler justifying the potential he is often cited as having and keeping them in some matches. Then there is the signing of Rafael Van Der Vaart which seems to have given the whole club the lift it was designed to do. They are by no means a club about to push right on, but they're worth following for now whilst spirits and results are so good I think.
Stuttgart tend to start badly and sometimes do not get going until after xmas, this looks like it may be one of those seasons. They have only won one match so far and their goal difference reads scored seven and conceded fourteen so far. They are in trouble at the wrong end of the table and don't look likely to turn it around soon. There needs to be some sort of change at the club, be that manager or more senior, as the whole place is devoid of anything positive at present. I'm not a huge believer in betting purely on confidence, but the gulf in the atmospheres at both clubs tempts me here.
Back Hamburg with Coral at 2.3. 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray, Friday 1800
First up in the Super Lig is a very tough away game for reigning champions Galatasaray at Genclerbirligi. Gencler have had a very good home record over the past few seasons and possess enough firepower to find themselves towards the top of the table and with an outside chance of UEFA competitions most years. This season they have started very well and currently sit third in the table and actually able to leapfrog Gala with a home victory. They are unbeaten at home in three matches and have scored eight whilst only conceding two to demonstrate how well they can play. This is definitely not the match Gala would want with minimal time with their players after many were in international action on Tuesday night.
As mentioned Gala always lose numerous players to international duty and in a league where this is not the case for most clubs this can provide the lesser sides with an improved chance of victory. Gala currently sit top of the table, but signed off with a loss at Orduspor before the break and were not looking at all assured at the back all season. The loss of club captain Tomas Ujfalusi has seen the defence noticeably less organised and they are conceding far too many to justify short prices away from home like this.
Lay Galatasaray at 2.0 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
The 'other two' in Turkey's big four meet on Sunday evening in Istanbul. Besiktas for me are roughly similar to Tottenham of seasons gone in that they have the talent, but are not a team to stake your house on. They are unreliable basically. There will be weeks where they blow sides out of the water, normally when their high wage experienced foreign players can be bothered, and then they'll surrender to a poor side away the next match. In this match they should be more likely to give a good account of themselves due to the calibre of the opponents and the fact they are always a better side when at home in Istanbul. They are struggling a bit for goals though and Trabzonspor don't give many away so they may have a task on their hands.
As mentioned Trabzon have kept it very tight at the back so far this season, possibly to over compensate for the loss of the man responsible for over half their goals last season. Burak Yilmaz has left a large hole in attack for the Black Sea outfit and they are yet to find out how to replace his goals. They do sit in sixth position in the table however comma this is mainly due to three wins and a draw from four home matches. They are yet to win away from home and have two draws and a loss away so far. I'm not sure that Beisktas have the firepower to beat the leagues best defence so I'm going to split stakes on two markets for this one.
Back the Draw at 3.25 with BetFred. 1 point.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.75 with Bet365. 2 points.
Thursday, 11 October 2012
Another International Interlude...
That time is already upon us again when international football means a dearth of action in domestic leagues. Let's hope we win some money again like last time to make up for the lack of action and last weeks negative results.
Week Eight
West Brom v QPR - Win 1.8 points.
Newcastle v Man Utd - Lose 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Espanyol - Win 1 point.
Genoa v Palermo - Lose 1 point.
Greuther Furth v Hamburg - Win 3.24 points.
Monchengladbach v Frankfurt - Lose 3 points.
Sivasspor v Bursaspor - Lose 2.5 points.
Total - Lose 1.06 points.
Running Total - Win 11.9 points.
Music this week from Lars Fredriksen and The Bastards with Skunx, proper rock 'n roll is this!
Russia v Portugal, Friday 1600
Russia is never an easy place for any side to travel too, be that in UEFA club competitions or international matches. Russia have so far won both of their qualifying matches with ease and neither have been matches that are traditionally very easy. They beat Northern Ireland 2-0 at home in their first match and could have had more if they'd been more clinical in front of goal. They were obviously expected to win this match, but Northern Ireland have proven they can put up a scrap when they want and they were rolled over. The second match was an away trip to Israel where many good sides have failed to return from with victories in recent years. The Russians won this 4-0 to show they again look a side that can make an impact globally when the mood takes them. With Anzhi now looking a much improved team under Guus Hiddink it is a good period for Russian football and I'd have them tighter prices than current quotes.
Portugal have been cut due to the declaration of Cristiano Ronaldo's fitness. Their captain and talisman is obviously hugely important to how they play as he is expected to not only lead by example, but score too. The absence of a proper goalscorer has been a feature of Portugal's side for many years now and they are often set up quite defensively with Ronaldo, Nani and Hugo Almeida expected to start in attack. The excellent Joao Moutinho is expected to be the man that switches the ball from defence to attack, but I would assume Russia will be looking to put pressure on him constantly. There's always a chance of magic from Ronaldo deciding any game, but I fail to see why the Portugese are heading towards being favourites for this one.
Back Russia at 2.87 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Serbia v Belgium, Friday 1930
Serbia finally looked like they were getting their act together in their last match by thrashing a poor Wales side 6-1 at home. They have been blooding younger players for the last couple of years in the hope that they would be more motivated than the seniors that have been around the side for a while now and will be hoping that last result is a sign that they are ready to finally kick on. The likes of Zoran Tosic and Alexsandr Kolarov are playing in major European leagues and should be showing what they're capable of for their country. As many Eastern European sides do, Serbia possess a pretty mean defence with little time for fancy play. The attackers like Tosic and Miralem Sulejmani of Ajax are technically gifted players and should cause most sides problems. Given a proven goalscorer Serbia could well start qualifying for major tournaments.
Belgium are the current 'in' side on the international scene. Most people will now be able to name you a number of Belgian national players due to there being so many now in the Premier League as well as in other major leagues around Europe. This has led to many people tipping them for a run at the World Cup in Brazil, but I would be cautious of grand predictions like that. There is a long way to go before the World Cup gets going and one thing Belgium have shown in recent years is that they are very flaky. Read up on it and you hear of the dressing room cliques that mean this is not a united side and I'm yet to be convinced. They drew their last match 1-1 at home to a Croatia side on the decline and only beat 10 man Wales 2-0 in their first match. I can't see them justifying current prices.
Lay Belgium at 2.9 on Betfair. 3 points.
Switzerland v Norway, Friday 1930
Switzerland are the side that I would personally be watching rather than Belgium. Their youth sides have now been producing results for a decade and this is beginning to show in the senior side too. They have been regular qualifiers for tournaments anyway due to a very good defensive game and having strikers in the mould of Stephane Chapuisat and Alexander Frei who could always grab the odd goal given the chances. With the emergence of Young Boys Bern in UEFA club competitions now it is also good for the national team to have more Swiss players exposed to top level football. Of course the likes of Phillipe Senderos, Johan Djourou and Gokhlan Inler have been playing at the top level in England and Italy for a number of years now. The emergence of exciting talents Xherdan Shaquiri and Granit Xhaka has seen Switzerland suddenly emerge as an attacking force too. Shaquiri in particular has been in great form for Bayern Munich this season and will be a problem for Norway's defenders. They go two wins from two matches so far and should also win this with comfort.
Norway used to always have a good chance to qualify for major tournaments due to the large amount of players they exported to leagues like the Premier League and the experience this gave them. However comma this run seems to now be at an end with less players coming through with the ability to play at the very highest level. Apart from the Fulham pair of Brede Hangeland and John Arne Riise there is noone in their current squad playing regularly in a major league. More and more players are being picked from the domestic league and the national team look set for a period in the shadows until something changes to produce more talented young players.
Back Switzerland at 1.72 with Ladbrokes. 3 points.
I think I'll also have a handicap treble for fun, it'll be at the end.
Colombia v Paraguay, Friday 2130
This has many parallels with the Switzerland match above. Colombia are a side on the up with Radamel Falcao an absolutely lethal player at the top of his game leading their line. They are incredibly fortunate to have a player who is capable of leading the line on his own and it is noticeable that they don't panic in the knowledge they can get the ball to him and he will produce. Many of their player snow play for leading Serie A clubs and this is very helpful in particular for the defenders as there is still no better place to hone your craft in my opinion. They also have the talented Jose Pekerman as manager who was cast aside by Argentina after Diego Maradona led a campaign to oust him after some poor results. He is still a respected coach though and is a coup for Colombia. The wide player James Rodriguez has also started the season in lethal form for Porto and is to be watched.
Paraguay used to be regular qualifiers for major tournaments, but this could be at an end with the current side nowhere near their old level. Where Colombia's players all play for big teams in major leagues, Paraguay's current best performer is Nelson Valdez of Valencia. Whilst Valencia are no slouches he alone stands out compared to the sides his teammates play for. Lucas Barrios has taken the money and moved to China where the standard is not good at all and the rest of the side have either seen better days or are just not that good.
Back Colombia at 1.57 with Boylesports. 3 points.
Ecuador v Chile, Friday 2200
One thing you need to take into account when considering Ecuador and it's club sides when gambling is the advantage they hold due to altitude. LDU Quito managed to win the Copa Libertadores a few years ago with a side containing names who have not set the world alight. The big factor in their win was the winning run they had in home legs in Quito. This is also where the national team play and is at 2850 metres above sea level. They have so far won four out of four so far at home in these qualifiers and have scored six without reply. They have rarely been beaten at home in their recent history and are a good bet for me.
Chile peaked when they went to the last World Cup with Marcelo Bielsa managing the side in his 3-3-1-3 formation. The Argentinian coach is an innovator and the side is still set up in roughly the same way, but is now managed by another Argentina in Claudio Borghi. They have players like Alexis Sanchez and Gary Medel playing in La Liga in Spain as well as a number in Italy's Serie A, but they are a hit and miss side. They have yet to draw a match in this qualifying period and have won four and lost three so far. They were hit for four goals by both Uruguay and Argentina in their away matches and I'm not at all confident they're the team to get anything in Quito.
Back Ecuador at 1.95 on Betfair. 2 points.
Handicap Treble
I only do this on things I would term nigh on certainties and at short odds. If you wanted to split these off as singles I would advise 4 point stakes on each. Back England -4 at 1.4, Holland -4 at 1.55 and Sweden -1 at 1.36. This gives you a Treble at 2.95.
Week Eight
West Brom v QPR - Win 1.8 points.
Newcastle v Man Utd - Lose 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Espanyol - Win 1 point.
Genoa v Palermo - Lose 1 point.
Greuther Furth v Hamburg - Win 3.24 points.
Monchengladbach v Frankfurt - Lose 3 points.
Sivasspor v Bursaspor - Lose 2.5 points.
Total - Lose 1.06 points.
Running Total - Win 11.9 points.
Music this week from Lars Fredriksen and The Bastards with Skunx, proper rock 'n roll is this!
Russia v Portugal, Friday 1600
Russia is never an easy place for any side to travel too, be that in UEFA club competitions or international matches. Russia have so far won both of their qualifying matches with ease and neither have been matches that are traditionally very easy. They beat Northern Ireland 2-0 at home in their first match and could have had more if they'd been more clinical in front of goal. They were obviously expected to win this match, but Northern Ireland have proven they can put up a scrap when they want and they were rolled over. The second match was an away trip to Israel where many good sides have failed to return from with victories in recent years. The Russians won this 4-0 to show they again look a side that can make an impact globally when the mood takes them. With Anzhi now looking a much improved team under Guus Hiddink it is a good period for Russian football and I'd have them tighter prices than current quotes.
Portugal have been cut due to the declaration of Cristiano Ronaldo's fitness. Their captain and talisman is obviously hugely important to how they play as he is expected to not only lead by example, but score too. The absence of a proper goalscorer has been a feature of Portugal's side for many years now and they are often set up quite defensively with Ronaldo, Nani and Hugo Almeida expected to start in attack. The excellent Joao Moutinho is expected to be the man that switches the ball from defence to attack, but I would assume Russia will be looking to put pressure on him constantly. There's always a chance of magic from Ronaldo deciding any game, but I fail to see why the Portugese are heading towards being favourites for this one.
Back Russia at 2.87 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Serbia v Belgium, Friday 1930
Serbia finally looked like they were getting their act together in their last match by thrashing a poor Wales side 6-1 at home. They have been blooding younger players for the last couple of years in the hope that they would be more motivated than the seniors that have been around the side for a while now and will be hoping that last result is a sign that they are ready to finally kick on. The likes of Zoran Tosic and Alexsandr Kolarov are playing in major European leagues and should be showing what they're capable of for their country. As many Eastern European sides do, Serbia possess a pretty mean defence with little time for fancy play. The attackers like Tosic and Miralem Sulejmani of Ajax are technically gifted players and should cause most sides problems. Given a proven goalscorer Serbia could well start qualifying for major tournaments.
Belgium are the current 'in' side on the international scene. Most people will now be able to name you a number of Belgian national players due to there being so many now in the Premier League as well as in other major leagues around Europe. This has led to many people tipping them for a run at the World Cup in Brazil, but I would be cautious of grand predictions like that. There is a long way to go before the World Cup gets going and one thing Belgium have shown in recent years is that they are very flaky. Read up on it and you hear of the dressing room cliques that mean this is not a united side and I'm yet to be convinced. They drew their last match 1-1 at home to a Croatia side on the decline and only beat 10 man Wales 2-0 in their first match. I can't see them justifying current prices.
Lay Belgium at 2.9 on Betfair. 3 points.
Switzerland v Norway, Friday 1930
Switzerland are the side that I would personally be watching rather than Belgium. Their youth sides have now been producing results for a decade and this is beginning to show in the senior side too. They have been regular qualifiers for tournaments anyway due to a very good defensive game and having strikers in the mould of Stephane Chapuisat and Alexander Frei who could always grab the odd goal given the chances. With the emergence of Young Boys Bern in UEFA club competitions now it is also good for the national team to have more Swiss players exposed to top level football. Of course the likes of Phillipe Senderos, Johan Djourou and Gokhlan Inler have been playing at the top level in England and Italy for a number of years now. The emergence of exciting talents Xherdan Shaquiri and Granit Xhaka has seen Switzerland suddenly emerge as an attacking force too. Shaquiri in particular has been in great form for Bayern Munich this season and will be a problem for Norway's defenders. They go two wins from two matches so far and should also win this with comfort.
Norway used to always have a good chance to qualify for major tournaments due to the large amount of players they exported to leagues like the Premier League and the experience this gave them. However comma this run seems to now be at an end with less players coming through with the ability to play at the very highest level. Apart from the Fulham pair of Brede Hangeland and John Arne Riise there is noone in their current squad playing regularly in a major league. More and more players are being picked from the domestic league and the national team look set for a period in the shadows until something changes to produce more talented young players.
Back Switzerland at 1.72 with Ladbrokes. 3 points.
I think I'll also have a handicap treble for fun, it'll be at the end.
Colombia v Paraguay, Friday 2130
This has many parallels with the Switzerland match above. Colombia are a side on the up with Radamel Falcao an absolutely lethal player at the top of his game leading their line. They are incredibly fortunate to have a player who is capable of leading the line on his own and it is noticeable that they don't panic in the knowledge they can get the ball to him and he will produce. Many of their player snow play for leading Serie A clubs and this is very helpful in particular for the defenders as there is still no better place to hone your craft in my opinion. They also have the talented Jose Pekerman as manager who was cast aside by Argentina after Diego Maradona led a campaign to oust him after some poor results. He is still a respected coach though and is a coup for Colombia. The wide player James Rodriguez has also started the season in lethal form for Porto and is to be watched.
Paraguay used to be regular qualifiers for major tournaments, but this could be at an end with the current side nowhere near their old level. Where Colombia's players all play for big teams in major leagues, Paraguay's current best performer is Nelson Valdez of Valencia. Whilst Valencia are no slouches he alone stands out compared to the sides his teammates play for. Lucas Barrios has taken the money and moved to China where the standard is not good at all and the rest of the side have either seen better days or are just not that good.
Back Colombia at 1.57 with Boylesports. 3 points.
Ecuador v Chile, Friday 2200
One thing you need to take into account when considering Ecuador and it's club sides when gambling is the advantage they hold due to altitude. LDU Quito managed to win the Copa Libertadores a few years ago with a side containing names who have not set the world alight. The big factor in their win was the winning run they had in home legs in Quito. This is also where the national team play and is at 2850 metres above sea level. They have so far won four out of four so far at home in these qualifiers and have scored six without reply. They have rarely been beaten at home in their recent history and are a good bet for me.
Chile peaked when they went to the last World Cup with Marcelo Bielsa managing the side in his 3-3-1-3 formation. The Argentinian coach is an innovator and the side is still set up in roughly the same way, but is now managed by another Argentina in Claudio Borghi. They have players like Alexis Sanchez and Gary Medel playing in La Liga in Spain as well as a number in Italy's Serie A, but they are a hit and miss side. They have yet to draw a match in this qualifying period and have won four and lost three so far. They were hit for four goals by both Uruguay and Argentina in their away matches and I'm not at all confident they're the team to get anything in Quito.
Back Ecuador at 1.95 on Betfair. 2 points.
Handicap Treble
I only do this on things I would term nigh on certainties and at short odds. If you wanted to split these off as singles I would advise 4 point stakes on each. Back England -4 at 1.4, Holland -4 at 1.55 and Sweden -1 at 1.36. This gives you a Treble at 2.95.
Thursday, 4 October 2012
On A Run...
Yet another successful weekend for followers. Let's hope it continues!
Week Seven
Arsenal v Chelsea - win 1.8 points.
Sunderland v Wigan - win 2 points.
Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao - win 1.4 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Schalke 04 - win 2.04 points.
Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich - win 1.8 points.
Inter Milan v Fiorentina - lose 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Istanbul BB - lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Mersin Idman Yurdu - scratch.
Total - win 5.04 points.
Running Total - win 12.96 points.
Music this week comes from Rancid lead singer Tim Armstrong with Hold On.
West Brom v QPR, Saturday 1500
In my season antepost betting preview I expressed my concern at West Brom's appointment of Steve Clarke as manager and thought they were worth an investment to go down. They have started off well though and look well placed to disappoint anyone who followed me in on that prediction. I am well aware of the reputation Clarke holds as a very good defensive coach and he has certainly made West Brom a very organised side in defence. This is the reason they have so far won three from three at home whilst not conceding a single goal in that period. They have also scored six goals in those three matches and they have a good set of options in attack with the hard-running and physical presence of Shane Long and then the flair and unpredictability of Peter Odemwingie too. These two are enough to provide questions for most defences on their own. They got a creditable away draw in the derby at Aston Villa last weekend and should take continued confidence from that.
QPR have looked dreadful so far. I watched them at Loftus Road against Reading in the League Cup last week where they managed to throw away the lead twice to finally succumb 3-2. There was heavy investment in both January and over the summer in the playing staff, but this has not reaped rewards at all so far. I think a lot of this blame has to be layed at the door of manager Mark Hughes. I've not been impressed with Hughes for a long time and his own high opinion of himself certainly doesn't help. He did do a good job at both Blackburn and Wales, but since then he was poor at Man City and then steadied Fulham before leaving citing his wanting a better job. He has some very good players at his disposal at QPR, but is not getting any sort of performance levels out of them. There seems to be very little tactical direction when I see them and the defence is often alarmingly poor. I don't see how they get anything out of this.
Back West Bromwich Albion at 1.9 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Newcastle v Man Utd, Sunday 1600
Newcastle have not been as impressive as last season so far this term, but they should still be confident of a top-half finish and possibly European football again. The side that so impressed last season has been kept together and that should stand them in good stead so long as a few fresh faces are brought in during the January window to freshen things up. Alan Pardew has got a settled defence which helps to keep clean sheets and in attack possesses numerous options to unleash. Demba Ba continued his excellent Premier League scoring record with both goals against Reading last weekend to salvage a draw. Even if he is unhappy to be seemingly behind Papiss Cisse in the pecking order, Pardew seems to be getting him to try and prove him wrong which is good for the team. There is also the mercurial Hatem Ben Arfa marauding from wide positions to supply the strikers and also to shoot himself, which has produced a few stunning goals. The key battle will be in the centre of midfield though, if Cheik Tiote and Yohan Cabaye can neutralise whoever Alex Ferguson picks then they have every chance of getting something.
Having lost at home to Tottenham last Saturday evening, United proceeded to fall behind to CFR Cluj in Romania on Tuesday and have to struggle back to a 2-1 win. This could be seen as a more positive result as they battled back strongly to win in the end, but it again highlights where they have issues. Patrice Evra was once again at fault for the Cluj goal with him simply letting the Romanian sides winger go by him and cross unchallenged. This is hardly the only time he has done this in the last 18 months and it is surely a matter of time before he is dropped. Then there is the continuing issues at centre back, mostly due to at least one from Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic and Jonny Evans being injured at any time. This is not aided by the lack of cover provided by the centre of midfield. Alex Ferguson has numerous options with Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs, Tom Cleverley, Anderson and Michael Carrick, as well as a returning Darren Ferguson. The problem is that apart from Fletcher none of them are defensively minded, and in the case of Scholes, Giggs and Anderson are not even able to harry back and forth for any stretch of time. This is where the battle will be won or lost again I think.
Lay Manchester United at 1.95 on Betfair. 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Espanyol, Saturday 1900
There's been improvement in La Liga tips lately and it's been by going against those teams who seem to be in dire straits. This may sound simple, but it's hard to pick who these are going to be pre-season with so many changes in personnel as well as everyone barring a select few being completely broke. It currently looks likely that Espanyol are going to struggle a lot unless something changes quickly. They look uninspired in attack and awful at the back, not a good combination at all. They are still yet to get a victory and have lost all three away matches whilst conceding six goals.
Valladolid have started pretty well and sit mid-table at this early stage. They also thrashed Rayo Vallecano 6-1 last weekend to provide them with a huge boost. The ex-Man Utd forward Manucho is really beginning to show signs of why he was signed after a strong African Cup Of Nations campaign. He is a physical presence and should relish going up against a weak Espanyol backline.
Back Real Valladolid at 2.0 with Ladbrokes. 1 point.
Genoa v Palermo, Sunday 1400
Nothing really stands out again in Italy for me this week. You could argue AC Milan are a good price off the back of beating Zenit in midweek, but I'm not keen to be betting on a derby in a shared stadium. Juventus look a bit short this week, even if it is against a fairly poor Siena side. I think the best bet is on a Genoa side that is a shadow of it's former self at home to a Palermo side in a similar situation. Genoa have not been quite as poor as I thought they might and have managed a symetrical record of won one, drawn one, lost one both at home and away. They have also scored and conceded seven so far. They are an open side, and I think that will continue in this.
Palermo started terribly and look to have improved a bit in recent weeks and finally posted a win last weekend with a 4-1 home victory against Chievo. They have lost every away match though and failed to score in that time. The victory last week may well spur them on a bit, but I'm not sure they're at all backable yet. This poor away record has been a feature for all of last season as well as this so the odds for Genoa appeal.
Back Genoa at 2.25 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Greuther Forth v Hamburg, Saturday 1430
Greuther Forth have been struggling since promotion over the summer and currently sit second bottom of the Bundesliga with only one win to their name. That win was in their second game away at a Mainz side who have also started the season very slowly. They have lost all three of their matches at home so far and have also lost three matches on the bounce to leave them looking almost devoid of any confidence in themselves. Their main problem is a lack of goals. They are yet to score at home and have only two goals in total from all six matches. In a high scoring league like the Bundesliga where you will inevitably ship a few goals it is imperative you have a few players capable of scoring and Greuther do not look able.
Hamburg have finally started to look a backable prospect after almost 18 months of me betting against team and doing very well out of it. The signing of Rafael Van Der Vaart does not solve all their problems, but it has given the fans and squad a timely boost and results have improved since he arrived. However comma the best performer so far has been their goalkeeper Rene Adler. Against any side with a decent attack Hamburg are likely to give away chances and it is only the form of their goalkeeper that has allowed them to get positive results of late. Adler was previously seen as a great prospect so this return to form is much needed. The team have scored seven goals in their last four matches and with Greuther unable to offer much threat they look backable. I can hardly believe I'm saying it!
Back Hamburg at 2.62 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt, Sunday 1430
Monchengladbach regularly featured last season due to their uncanny ability to frustrate sides and then rely on Marco Reus for goals and inspiration to win. Unfortunately the wonderful Reus has now departed for Borussia Dortmund and left Gladbach desperately short of attacking threat. This was most keenly shown last week as Reus grabbed two goals for his new side in a 5-0 win over his old one. Before then Gladbach's previously solid defence had also been shown to be leakier than anticipated with twelve goals conceded in six matches and only one clean sheet. They have only won one match so far and are now up against the leagues form side besides Bayern Munich.
Frankfurt have started off like a train and would be top, were it not for the unstoppable Bayern Munich. They have only dropped points in one match so far, in a 3-3 draw with reigning champions Borussia Dortmund where they also showed great determination to recover from 2-0 down. They have shown that they can score goals with sixteen in their six matches so far. They have conceded goals, but have actually managed to only concede one in their two away matches so far. They seem tactically aware enough to reign it in a bit away from home, but have still managed six goals for in those two matches, including a fantastic 4-0 win away at Hoffenheim. With Monchengladbach coming off the back of a Thursday night Europa League match with Fenerbahce Frankfurt must fancy their chances of continuing their run.
Lay Monchengladbach at 2.2. 3 points.
Karabukspor v Orduspor, Friday 1800
First up from the Super Lig is a Friday evening match between Karabuk and Orduspor. Both sides have started the season pretty well with Karabuk just below mid-table. They have gone won one, drawn one, lost one at home so far and this has included a creditable draw with Trabzonspor, a poor loss to Besiktas and a win against struggling ten man Antalyaspor. So whilst they have started ok, there is reason to be worried with Trabzon still adjusting to losing star man Buruk Yilmaz and Antalyaspor reduced to ten men in their only victory so far. Karabuk did pick up an away win 3-1 against promoted Akhisar last weekend, but I would predict them to have a long struggle against relegation. Basically there are holes in every result and I would expect things to turn against Karabuk soon.
Orduspor have started very well and sit in third position as the only still unbeaten side in the league. They have won all three at home and drawn all three away. This has included a fine 2-0 win at home to reigning champions Galatasaray last Friday and that should fill them with confidence going forward. They have also kept three clean sheets so far to show they are an organised side at the back. The striker Bogdan Stancu also looks in fine form so far and has scored in his last two matches and will be looking to continue that in this match. I think they're worth a punt to win this one.
Back Orduspor at 2.4 with BlueSquare. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Bursaspor, Sunday 1400
I thought Sivasspor would be one to watch this season as they have been steadily improving for the last eighteen months and they currently sit in fourth position. A lot of this improvement has been a scaling back of their very attacking approach and trying to make their home form a lot better. They are so far unbeaten at home with a win and two draws, including a good win against form side Kasimpasa. They also beat Besiktas 1-0 last weekend away in an impressive defensive showing, they have now won three matches one nil and only conceded in two games. This is hugely different to previous years where they attacked all the time with an approach of scoring one more than the opposition.
Bursaspor were also a side I was interested in watching as they seemed to be back to their previous best in their early matches, and they were scoring plenty. Unfortunately for them they have reverted back to being very inconsistent and making themselves very hard to back with any confidence. They thrashed Karabukspor 4-1 one week, but then drew with pointless Elazigspor the next weekend. They followed this disappointment with a late goal to nick a home draw with a struggling Gaziantepspor side and they look out of sorts at the moment. They wont be looking forward to what now looks a tough game for any side against Sivasspor.
Back Sivasspor at 2.5 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Week Seven
Arsenal v Chelsea - win 1.8 points.
Sunderland v Wigan - win 2 points.
Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao - win 1.4 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Schalke 04 - win 2.04 points.
Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich - win 1.8 points.
Inter Milan v Fiorentina - lose 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Istanbul BB - lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Mersin Idman Yurdu - scratch.
Total - win 5.04 points.
Running Total - win 12.96 points.
Music this week comes from Rancid lead singer Tim Armstrong with Hold On.
West Brom v QPR, Saturday 1500
In my season antepost betting preview I expressed my concern at West Brom's appointment of Steve Clarke as manager and thought they were worth an investment to go down. They have started off well though and look well placed to disappoint anyone who followed me in on that prediction. I am well aware of the reputation Clarke holds as a very good defensive coach and he has certainly made West Brom a very organised side in defence. This is the reason they have so far won three from three at home whilst not conceding a single goal in that period. They have also scored six goals in those three matches and they have a good set of options in attack with the hard-running and physical presence of Shane Long and then the flair and unpredictability of Peter Odemwingie too. These two are enough to provide questions for most defences on their own. They got a creditable away draw in the derby at Aston Villa last weekend and should take continued confidence from that.
QPR have looked dreadful so far. I watched them at Loftus Road against Reading in the League Cup last week where they managed to throw away the lead twice to finally succumb 3-2. There was heavy investment in both January and over the summer in the playing staff, but this has not reaped rewards at all so far. I think a lot of this blame has to be layed at the door of manager Mark Hughes. I've not been impressed with Hughes for a long time and his own high opinion of himself certainly doesn't help. He did do a good job at both Blackburn and Wales, but since then he was poor at Man City and then steadied Fulham before leaving citing his wanting a better job. He has some very good players at his disposal at QPR, but is not getting any sort of performance levels out of them. There seems to be very little tactical direction when I see them and the defence is often alarmingly poor. I don't see how they get anything out of this.
Back West Bromwich Albion at 1.9 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Newcastle v Man Utd, Sunday 1600
Newcastle have not been as impressive as last season so far this term, but they should still be confident of a top-half finish and possibly European football again. The side that so impressed last season has been kept together and that should stand them in good stead so long as a few fresh faces are brought in during the January window to freshen things up. Alan Pardew has got a settled defence which helps to keep clean sheets and in attack possesses numerous options to unleash. Demba Ba continued his excellent Premier League scoring record with both goals against Reading last weekend to salvage a draw. Even if he is unhappy to be seemingly behind Papiss Cisse in the pecking order, Pardew seems to be getting him to try and prove him wrong which is good for the team. There is also the mercurial Hatem Ben Arfa marauding from wide positions to supply the strikers and also to shoot himself, which has produced a few stunning goals. The key battle will be in the centre of midfield though, if Cheik Tiote and Yohan Cabaye can neutralise whoever Alex Ferguson picks then they have every chance of getting something.
Having lost at home to Tottenham last Saturday evening, United proceeded to fall behind to CFR Cluj in Romania on Tuesday and have to struggle back to a 2-1 win. This could be seen as a more positive result as they battled back strongly to win in the end, but it again highlights where they have issues. Patrice Evra was once again at fault for the Cluj goal with him simply letting the Romanian sides winger go by him and cross unchallenged. This is hardly the only time he has done this in the last 18 months and it is surely a matter of time before he is dropped. Then there is the continuing issues at centre back, mostly due to at least one from Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic and Jonny Evans being injured at any time. This is not aided by the lack of cover provided by the centre of midfield. Alex Ferguson has numerous options with Paul Scholes, Ryan Giggs, Tom Cleverley, Anderson and Michael Carrick, as well as a returning Darren Ferguson. The problem is that apart from Fletcher none of them are defensively minded, and in the case of Scholes, Giggs and Anderson are not even able to harry back and forth for any stretch of time. This is where the battle will be won or lost again I think.
Lay Manchester United at 1.95 on Betfair. 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Espanyol, Saturday 1900
There's been improvement in La Liga tips lately and it's been by going against those teams who seem to be in dire straits. This may sound simple, but it's hard to pick who these are going to be pre-season with so many changes in personnel as well as everyone barring a select few being completely broke. It currently looks likely that Espanyol are going to struggle a lot unless something changes quickly. They look uninspired in attack and awful at the back, not a good combination at all. They are still yet to get a victory and have lost all three away matches whilst conceding six goals.
Valladolid have started pretty well and sit mid-table at this early stage. They also thrashed Rayo Vallecano 6-1 last weekend to provide them with a huge boost. The ex-Man Utd forward Manucho is really beginning to show signs of why he was signed after a strong African Cup Of Nations campaign. He is a physical presence and should relish going up against a weak Espanyol backline.
Back Real Valladolid at 2.0 with Ladbrokes. 1 point.
Genoa v Palermo, Sunday 1400
Nothing really stands out again in Italy for me this week. You could argue AC Milan are a good price off the back of beating Zenit in midweek, but I'm not keen to be betting on a derby in a shared stadium. Juventus look a bit short this week, even if it is against a fairly poor Siena side. I think the best bet is on a Genoa side that is a shadow of it's former self at home to a Palermo side in a similar situation. Genoa have not been quite as poor as I thought they might and have managed a symetrical record of won one, drawn one, lost one both at home and away. They have also scored and conceded seven so far. They are an open side, and I think that will continue in this.
Palermo started terribly and look to have improved a bit in recent weeks and finally posted a win last weekend with a 4-1 home victory against Chievo. They have lost every away match though and failed to score in that time. The victory last week may well spur them on a bit, but I'm not sure they're at all backable yet. This poor away record has been a feature for all of last season as well as this so the odds for Genoa appeal.
Back Genoa at 2.25 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Greuther Forth v Hamburg, Saturday 1430
Greuther Forth have been struggling since promotion over the summer and currently sit second bottom of the Bundesliga with only one win to their name. That win was in their second game away at a Mainz side who have also started the season very slowly. They have lost all three of their matches at home so far and have also lost three matches on the bounce to leave them looking almost devoid of any confidence in themselves. Their main problem is a lack of goals. They are yet to score at home and have only two goals in total from all six matches. In a high scoring league like the Bundesliga where you will inevitably ship a few goals it is imperative you have a few players capable of scoring and Greuther do not look able.
Hamburg have finally started to look a backable prospect after almost 18 months of me betting against team and doing very well out of it. The signing of Rafael Van Der Vaart does not solve all their problems, but it has given the fans and squad a timely boost and results have improved since he arrived. However comma the best performer so far has been their goalkeeper Rene Adler. Against any side with a decent attack Hamburg are likely to give away chances and it is only the form of their goalkeeper that has allowed them to get positive results of late. Adler was previously seen as a great prospect so this return to form is much needed. The team have scored seven goals in their last four matches and with Greuther unable to offer much threat they look backable. I can hardly believe I'm saying it!
Back Hamburg at 2.62 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt, Sunday 1430
Monchengladbach regularly featured last season due to their uncanny ability to frustrate sides and then rely on Marco Reus for goals and inspiration to win. Unfortunately the wonderful Reus has now departed for Borussia Dortmund and left Gladbach desperately short of attacking threat. This was most keenly shown last week as Reus grabbed two goals for his new side in a 5-0 win over his old one. Before then Gladbach's previously solid defence had also been shown to be leakier than anticipated with twelve goals conceded in six matches and only one clean sheet. They have only won one match so far and are now up against the leagues form side besides Bayern Munich.
Frankfurt have started off like a train and would be top, were it not for the unstoppable Bayern Munich. They have only dropped points in one match so far, in a 3-3 draw with reigning champions Borussia Dortmund where they also showed great determination to recover from 2-0 down. They have shown that they can score goals with sixteen in their six matches so far. They have conceded goals, but have actually managed to only concede one in their two away matches so far. They seem tactically aware enough to reign it in a bit away from home, but have still managed six goals for in those two matches, including a fantastic 4-0 win away at Hoffenheim. With Monchengladbach coming off the back of a Thursday night Europa League match with Fenerbahce Frankfurt must fancy their chances of continuing their run.
Lay Monchengladbach at 2.2. 3 points.
Karabukspor v Orduspor, Friday 1800
First up from the Super Lig is a Friday evening match between Karabuk and Orduspor. Both sides have started the season pretty well with Karabuk just below mid-table. They have gone won one, drawn one, lost one at home so far and this has included a creditable draw with Trabzonspor, a poor loss to Besiktas and a win against struggling ten man Antalyaspor. So whilst they have started ok, there is reason to be worried with Trabzon still adjusting to losing star man Buruk Yilmaz and Antalyaspor reduced to ten men in their only victory so far. Karabuk did pick up an away win 3-1 against promoted Akhisar last weekend, but I would predict them to have a long struggle against relegation. Basically there are holes in every result and I would expect things to turn against Karabuk soon.
Orduspor have started very well and sit in third position as the only still unbeaten side in the league. They have won all three at home and drawn all three away. This has included a fine 2-0 win at home to reigning champions Galatasaray last Friday and that should fill them with confidence going forward. They have also kept three clean sheets so far to show they are an organised side at the back. The striker Bogdan Stancu also looks in fine form so far and has scored in his last two matches and will be looking to continue that in this match. I think they're worth a punt to win this one.
Back Orduspor at 2.4 with BlueSquare. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Bursaspor, Sunday 1400
I thought Sivasspor would be one to watch this season as they have been steadily improving for the last eighteen months and they currently sit in fourth position. A lot of this improvement has been a scaling back of their very attacking approach and trying to make their home form a lot better. They are so far unbeaten at home with a win and two draws, including a good win against form side Kasimpasa. They also beat Besiktas 1-0 last weekend away in an impressive defensive showing, they have now won three matches one nil and only conceded in two games. This is hugely different to previous years where they attacked all the time with an approach of scoring one more than the opposition.
Bursaspor were also a side I was interested in watching as they seemed to be back to their previous best in their early matches, and they were scoring plenty. Unfortunately for them they have reverted back to being very inconsistent and making themselves very hard to back with any confidence. They thrashed Karabukspor 4-1 one week, but then drew with pointless Elazigspor the next weekend. They followed this disappointment with a late goal to nick a home draw with a struggling Gaziantepspor side and they look out of sorts at the moment. They wont be looking forward to what now looks a tough game for any side against Sivasspor.
Back Sivasspor at 2.5 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
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