But, not around here just yet! We're clinging on to about as even as you can get last weekend! More than anything I hope it shows that over the past two seasons of doing this column I have learnt from my mistakes and improved my selections. I think it also shows the benefits of working on assigning points to the 'value' in each bet. My theory was always that the way to make long term profit was to look for value bets and hopefully this will be proven come the end of the season and into the future.
Week 27
Reading v Wigan - Lose 2 points.
Norwich v Everton - Win 1.8 points.
Celta Vigo v Granada - Lose 2 points.
Atalanta v Roma - Win 3.02 points.
Hannover v Hamburg - Win 3 points.
Monchengladbach v Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Istanbul BB v Eskisehirspor - Win 1.72 points.
Sivasspor v Besiktas - Lose 2.5 points.
Totals - Up 0.04 points.
Running Total - Up 49.64 points.
My musical selection this week is from Vic Ruggiero with A Lovely Beginning.
Everton v Reading, Saturday 1500
Everton traditionally start seasons slowly and are forced to embark on a turnaround after Xmas to see them into the European spots. However comma this season they have seemingly gone the opposite direction and charged out of the blocks, only to tail off from winter onwards. This was originally put down to them missing the talismanic presence of Marouane Fellaini after he picked up a suspension during this period, but the lethargy of performances has still continued with his return to the side. A lot of the focus has been on Nikola Jelavic after his disappointing form since October, but the whole side looks stale to me. They've never been blessed with great flair so if the effort drops they're far from unbeatable. They may have picked up a 3-1 win against Oldham on Tuesday night, but they were given some scares by a side languishing in League 2 at the moment to put it in perspective. Looking back through previous results they have also only been ahead at half time in one of the last ten matches. All this in mind makes them look a very short price.
Reading looked like they might well embark on the sort of second half of the season run that they did in their last two seasons in the Championship going into the new year. They were battling back from seemingly lost games and with Adam Le Fondre coming off the bench they looked threatening. Possibly due to this knowledge of their tactics though they have been somewhat stopped in their tracks of late. They have lost their last two matches, although a physical encounter at the Britannia Stadium against Stoke was possibly the one match all season that suited them least. Last weekends 3-0 loss at home to Wigan though will need a response as they are a side they can't afford to let escape from them in the relegation battle. This match is a chance to get a morale boosting point or three.
Lay Everton at 1.43 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sunderland v Fulham, Saturday 1500
I think there's an excellent price to be had here, although I understand the reasons behind it. Sunderland have not won in four matches now after a few good results pulled them out of the real relegation scrap. But, if you look at the last four matches the Mackems have played it is not an easy run. They drew at home to an excellent Swansea side 0-0, they lost 2-1 away at Reading when they were still rolling, lost at home 0-1 to an Arsenal side on a good day and then were beaten 2-1 away at WBA last weekend. The other thing you'll notice is that even in a poor run, Sunderland have not been soundly beaten. A trademark of Martin O'Neill sides has been that they are hard to beat and this has continued in his Sunderland reign. Confidence should not have been too harshly damaged due to being close in every match as well as the fact I still retain confidence in O'Neill as a motivator.
Generally I'm no huge fan of historical data when weighing up a bet, but sometimes things are too clear to ignore. Fulham's away form comes into this category. They have now been through some perfectly capable managers and not one of them was able to turn this around. Martin Jol's name can now be added to that list it seems. They go won two, drawn five and lost six so far on their travels this season to make it only ten wins since the start of the 2009/10 season on the road. In this time they have had some excellent players, and Dimitar Berbatov amongst the best of them this season, but no matter the personnel they cannot turn this form around. Bearing this in mind and what should be a tough game they look a touch too short to me.
Lay Fulham at 3.4 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Tottenham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
The match with the most at stake this weekend is the North London derby. Tottenham have a four point lead over their neighbours heading into this match and will want to extend it as much as possible with the hunt for the third automatic qualifying spot for the Champions League up for grabs. After the abuse Andres Villas Boas took in much of the press at the start of the season for not being Harry Redknapp and upsetting Chelsea's delicate little lambs John Terry and Frank Lampard, it must be very satisfying. When you also take into account he has been somewhat handicapped in the transfer market by Redknapp's large contracts dished out to ageing players he has done a truly exceptional job. Then there's Gareth Bale. I'll admit that I have been arguing that he's not as good as the press would love to believe, but there's no ignoring his contributions lately. Eight goals in his last six games have gone a long way to keep Tottenham near the peak of the table when players like Emanuel Adebayor have looked disinterested. His presence alone should be giving Arsenal something to think about.
Arsenal are not having the best season of Wenger's reign, but I still have an element of sympathy for the levels of abuse he gets at times. There is clearly an agenda at Arsenal that considers making a profit as a success for the club as a whole and Wenger has bought into that for better or worse. That the club again reported a large profit just this week and are by no means out of the race for the Champions League qualifying spots means that the board will be likely to view it as an ok season all in. The problem comes with the fans having seen all conquering sides not that long ago and not coming to terms with the fact that others have caught up on scouting and have considerably more wealth. I think Wenger has numerous faults, not least a seeming refusal to adapt to a changing landscape, but who would do better is quite a question. I think the Bale factor has to tip this one well in the home sides favour so I'll have to be against the Gunners.
Back Tottenham at 2.4 with StanJames. 2 points.
Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1900
I was going to back Real Madrid earlier in the week at above 3.2, but they're in to 3.0 at the biggest now. With the La Liga title all but out of reach and an important midweek Champions League match with Manchester United on Wednesday I can't trust them to get the job done.
So I am turning to an old favourite side for this weekends Spanish selection, Osasuna. As I have mentioned before there is generally some value to be found in opposing 'name' sides in foreign leagues if there is good reason too. The weight of any money on these matches will be from casual punters in the main and they're much more likely to back a 'name' in a match, meaning the odds stay long on the underdog. Osasuna are as close to Stoke City as you will find in Spain with an emphasis on making a trip to their ground as intimidating as possible. They're a rough side who don't go in for pointless passing combinations when a good old punt will give them a chance for a scramble in the goalmouth. They started the season terribly, but are now up to mid-table on the back of returning to their home form of seasons passed. They go won five, drawn five and lost four at home and have scored twelve and only conceded eight in those matches.
Athletic Bilbao are on a monumental comedown after the achievements of last season. The side that knocked Man Utd out of the Europa League before losing the final has been a shadow following the sale of Javi Martinez to Bayern Munich and with Fernando Llorente reduced to sitting out before his summer move to Juventus. I've mentioned before the fact that Marcelo Bielsa is a tough manager to get on with for a prolonged period and this has been proven here, the strange thing is that he is even still in Bilbao. They are still not safe from relegation at all and a poor away record is a large contributor to this. They go won two, drawn three and lost seven whist scoring fourteen and conceding thirty. They'll find it tough to create chances in this one and will likely give Osasuna enough to punish them.
Back Osasuna at 2.4 with Coral. 2 points.
Catania v Inter Milan, Sunday 1400
The big match in Serie A this weekend is definitely the Napoli v Juventus match on Friday night. Whilst it is always tempting to pick a bet in the biggest matches it takes discipline to stay away if there's nothing there to grab you. Three weeks ago I would have been happy to lay Juventus as favs in this match, but Napoli are showing signs the pressure of actually being involved in a title race is getting to them with some poor results failing to take advantage of Juventus' slips. There's probably some value in the draw as neither will want to lose.
So, the match I am picking is again with my favourite Serie A side for betting this season, Catania, hosting Inter Milan. I thought that Catania's home form might well have tailed off and seen them drop to a comfortable mid-table position, but all credit to them as they seem to be going for a Europa League spot for next season. The side from Sicily were expected to struggle once manager Vincenzo Montella departed for Fiorentina, but they have actually improved and that is down to a home record the equal or better of many an established side. They go nine wins, two draws and two defeats in Sicily, scoring twenty one and only conceding ten. This goals against record is the equal second best in the table with Fiorentina, only behind the leaders Juventus.
Inter Milan have been a patchy side all season, with short bursts of amazing matches followed by a few weeks in the doldrums. This is probably to be expected in something of a transitional period for the club a couple of years after the highs of their treble win under Jose Mourinho. With many of the big names shipped out since to cut costs, and average age, there is a mixture of young players (and manager), very old heads and those that are probably done with the game. It is no wonder with all this upheaval that form has been non-existent. Their away form reads won six, drawn just one and lost six with nineteen scored and eighteen conceded. With Diego Milito now out injured again I wouldn't fancy them in a tough match like this.
Lay Inter Milan at 3.3 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
I can't see any obvious value around in the Bundesliga this weekend so I'm going to take something of a punt on this one.
My thinking is that with a Champions League Last 16 tie in the balance at home to Shakhtar in the week, Dortmund will be saving their best players in the knowledge that the title is out of reach for them now. They have also actually been better away this season with three of their four losses coming at home so far. With key attackers like Lewandowski, Blaszcykowski and Reus all likely to play little or no part in this one they will be very likely to struggle for goals. The problem for them in the Bundesliga this season has been that they don't have back-up for the first choice players of anywhere near the same quality and they are struggling to go all out for two competitions.
Hannover are a column favourite due to the fact they rarely have an awful match and so can be bet upon with some confidence, particularly at home. Their away record so far this season is poor for a side with European aspirations with two wins, a draw and eight defeats so far. They have scored eighteen, which isn't too bad, but conceded twenty seven is those eleven matches. I said it was a long shot, but if Dortmund's best attackers are missing and with key centre back Mats Hummels also likely to be rested after an injury Hannover have a chance.
Lay Borussia Dortmund at 1.35 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Eskisehirspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
First up in the Super Lig this weekend is Eskisehirspor hosting leaders Galatasaray. Eskisehir have been a very strong side at home for a few seasons now and this has not changed this term either, although a poor start to the season has made the stats read slightly skewed. They go won five, drawn four and lost two at home so far and have scored twenty and conceded just thirteen. They had been struggling for goals in previous seasons so the goals for column must be particularly pleasing for them. They haven't been on top form since the winter break, but have still only been beaten once in the last six matches at present. They have also kept clean sheets in three of six to show they are still as tight at the back as ever.
I am still hugely disappointed in this Galatasaray side from their Champions League match with Schalke. The reigning Turkish champions had made a statement of intent by signing both Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba on huge contracts with the presumed intention of making a decent fist of the Champions League. What the club seemed to forget is that their defence is appalling and in far greater need of aid. If anything the signing of Sneijder in particular has unbalanced the side in the same way his presence had at Inter since Jose Mourinho's departure. He seems to think he's earned a choice of position and wants the old number ten role of simply hovering and waiting to pick passes. Sadly increased player fitness means he gets less time on the ball having been closed down, and most players are unfamiliar with a system to accommodate such a role. Drogba on the other hand looked a class above everyone else on the pitch in every match he has played. They came back from 2-0 down to win 4-2 at home to a desperately out of form Orduspor side last weekend, but I think this shows how vulnerable they are at times and this is a tough match.
Lay Galatasaray at 2.09 on Betfair. 2 points.
Kayserispor v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Sunday 1130
I will very rarely put up an odds on shot in Turkey as I don't feel any side, barring Gala at home, are to be trusted at short odds. However, I am going to break from that this week as I still think there's some value in this bet. Kayserispor currently lie comfortably mid-table and will be pleased with that. They are still only two points off the side in the Europa League qualifying spot and should still harbour hopes of a push for a European spot. Their home record is particularly excellent so far and reads won five, drawn four and lost two with thirteen scored and just seven conceded. That goals against column is absolutely amazing to me for a side who you would put as maybe the ninth or tenth best side in the division at the start of the season. They actually lost both those two matches in October too, so they're unbeaten at home four months.
Mersin Idman Yurdu were a side worth taking the occasional punt on when away from home last season as they were going for a win in every match, and got some good results in doing so. Unfortunately this season they sit bottom of the table and look doomed to spend next season in the Bank Asya Lig. Their away form is hopeless with no wins, two draws and seven losses with ten goals scored and twenty two conceded. In a low scoring league like Turkey getting ten away from home in nine matches in not bad, but it probably shows that they're still attacking when their defence isn't up to preventing the opposition taking advantage.
Back Kayserispor at 1.8 with Coral. 2 points.
Thursday, 28 February 2013
Thursday, 21 February 2013
Ticking Along Nicely...
Another weekend with only minimal profits, but that keeps us ticking over very nicely. Those of you that follow @TopTopTips on Twitter will also have the chance to add/lose more too. Last night's Champions League matches being the first time I've had a plain losing day in a while now. It hurt, but these things will happen, it pays to remember we are 'gambling' at the end of the day.
Week 26
Liverpool v Swansea - Lose 2 points.
Huddersfield v Wigan - Lose 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid - Lose 2 points.
Catania v Bologna - Win 2.1 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Greuther Furth - Win 2.8 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04 - Win 1.37 points.
Antalyaspor v Karabukspor - Win 2.3 points.
Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce - Win 1.39 points.
Totals - Win 3.96 points.
Running Total - Up 49.6 points.
Music this week from The Ramones with Sheena Is A Punk Rocker, a true classic!
Reading v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Wigan, I hate betting on Wigan. This one seems too good to miss though. Reading really struggled in the first half of the Premier League season and looked absolute certainties to be relegated back down to the Championship after just a season. Thanks to the takeover by a Russian millionaire they were linked with numerous big money players from that area like Andrei Arshavin in January to bolster the squad for a push up the table. However comma none of these 'big names' materialised and manager Brian McDermott invested in lower league players with a bit of fight and hunger, the right thing to do in my opinion. Results have also begun to turn around with the defence beginning to look a lot more sure-footed and the attack really threatening. The main threat in attack has without a doubt been the arrival of Adam Le Fondre in the latter stages of matches to prey on tiring opposition legs. He's no all round star, but he is a predator and is certainly grabbing some goals. The never-say-die attitude they have displayed in numerous comebacks also shows the spirit in the squad has not been dented and even if they take a while to get going they should have too much for Wigan.
Wigan again took my money last weekend by soundly beating Huddersfield away in the FA Cup. I've professed numerous times how much I dislike betting on games involving them, but I'll go back this time and if I'm undone again then they're back on the 'do not bet' list. They do have some players with excellent ability in their squad and this showed last weekend against a side towards the bottom of the division below. The likes of Jordi Gomez, James McCarthy and others certainly can pass a ball around, but they're not cut out for a relegation battle, and that's where Wigan find themselves time after time. They concede too many due to this constant lack of grit and they haven't had a regular goalscorer to give them some breathing room either, they'll be in the scrap again this season.
Back Reading at 2.7 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Norwich v Everton, Saturday 1500
Norwich have been very good to me over the past eighteen months, due in no small part to being underestimated by the bookmakers in their first season back in the Premier League. They have to rely on battling to get every point as they definitely do not have many players that you would consider 'Premier League quality', but they get on with this most weeks. Their only real cerebral player is Wesley Hoolahan, and the diminutive Irish international is the point where most attacking play goes through. The rest of the side is made up of players from the lower leagues and bargain buys from Premier League clubs like the central defensive pairing of Sebastien Bassong and Michael Turner. The basis of their tactics is that everyone has a role and they are pretty rigid about sticking to these roles, in many ways they are the anti-Wigan and the results they get seem to back this approach up. They're not in world beating form, but if they can deal with Everton's physical approach, and they should be able to match them, then they can get something from this match.
Everton are still in the hunt for the fourth Champions League spot, although they'd probably concede they'll be likely to fall short. They started the season in exceptional form and have experienced a couple of rough patches, one of which was recently. They now go for a very physical attacking approach with Nikola Jelavic out of form and the first eleven by starting with Victor Anichebe being backed up by Marouane Fellaini. These two are huge physical specimens and fully capable of bullying anyone who isn't on top of their game against them. Fortunately for Norwich they have two rather large centre backs themselves helped out by Alexander Tettey in defensive midfield to cope. Everton's problems of late have come at the back with Johnny Heitinga having been very poor. The Dutch international seems to always be a moment away from a dreadful error and they will need to be verycareful as Norwich do have a good winger in Anthony Pilkington who will expose him given the chance.
Lay Everton at 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Celta Vigo v Granada, Sunday 1600
This one jumped out at me immediately. You may have spotted me following Granada's recent good run so I will continue with that this weekend in La Liga. Celta Vigo didn't start the season too badly, but as time has worn on they look increasingly like a side more fitted to the Segunda division. They find themselves third bottom at the moment and struggling for any sort of result. Their home form is actually the only reason they aren't cut adrift, as they are wretched away from home, but they haven't won a home match since early January either. In fact they are now six matches without a win and have not scored more than once in any of those either. They look increasingly short of confidence and certain to be involved in the relegation scrap.
Granada weren't looking too hot themselves before the winter break, but have been excellent since the return to action in January. They are still bottom half of the La Liga table, but are a whole six points clear of the relegation spots and in good form, they will be hoping for a couple more results in this run to pull further clear. They beat Real Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna before losing from in front against Barcelona last weekend and should be full of confidence still after only being undone by Lionel Messi's continued brilliance. They go won four, drawn one and lost seven away from home, but the odds seem far too short on Celta Vigo to me.
Lay Celta Vigo at 1.9 on Betfair. 2 points.
Atalanta v Roma, Sunday 1400
Atalanta were a side I had my eye on for a while too due to an excellent home record in Serie A, but they seem to have been lacklustre of late. This has seen them drop down the table and they are now in fifteenth position of twenty sides. They should be clear of relegation worries, but they could yet get dragged in if they continue as they are. Their home form reads won five, drawn three and lost four so far with twelve scored fourteen conceded. It's easy to pick out that a lack of goals is making them susceptible to losses as they will struggle to get two if they concede even one. Their last home in was in early December and they've played five since then at home and have in fact only got one win away at the awful Palermo in their last nine matches. A side completely out of form.
Roma dispensed with manager Zdenek Zeman recently after he failed to get them back to the all out attacking, team-destroying unit they were in his first spell at the club. He had sorted out them as an attacking force, but had alienated Daniele De Rossi as well as leaving the side hopelessly exposed at the back. He's made no secret of his approach being to always try and score more than the opposition though so really the Roma hierachy shouldn't have been too surprised. Aurelio Andreazolli has been given the managers role for now after being in the back up staff for a number of years and seems to have the side ticking over nicely. There's plenty of talented players there so if he organises the defence better and reinstalls a bit of dressing room harmony they should do much better. A brilliant win against Juventus last weekend should give them a boost.
Back Roma at 2.51 at Pinnacle Sports. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hamburg, Saturday 1430
Hannover are one of the sides in Germany that feature most regularly in this column. They are exactly the sort of side I like to be on the side of when the odds are appealing. They're a good side, consistent and have an excellent home record. If you can spot small runs of form for sides with quality players then that can be very profitable, and I try to, but reliability is key I think to long term gains. Hannover fit the bill when they're at home as they're plenty good enough to make even the best Bundesliga sides work for any points they get when visiting. This season so far they go seven wins, two draws and two losses at home with twenty three scored and fourteen conceded. In the Bundesliga both of those are excellent records and they haven't lost at home since mid-November.
Hamburg were a lay nearly every week last season for me as they were being priced on name alone a lot of the time when their form was such that they were very nearly relegated. If you look at the side they had then it was also very apparent there was no quality there at all either. This season started off just as poorly and the board stepped in to appoint a new manager and bring back huge crowd favourite Rafael Van Der Vaart to give the whole place a boost. This seems to have worked wonders as Hamburg are now within striking distance of a Europa League spot for next season. Their away form goes won three, drawn three and lost five so far with thirteen scored and fifteen conceded. I think they're to be opposed here.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.5 with Bet365. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Sunday 1430
The battle of the Borussia's! Both sides are also still involved in UEFA competitions as I right this too with Monchengladbach due to play away at Lazio this evening. Monchen have been a very hit and miss side this season after taking a much more attacking approach to matches following the sale of star man Marco Reus to Dortmund over the summer. Last season they were able to defend in numbers and count on Reus scoring the goals to win them tight matches. With him out of the team though they seem to now be going for a more all round attacking approach which has seen some great and terrible results so far. They do go five wins, three draws and just two losses at home so far with nineteen scored and thirteen conceded. This seems to suggest that the attacking is not quite as much of a thing at home where opponents are less likely to attack and leave space to exploit. They have actually won three of the last four at home with just 3-3 thriller with Leverkusen as the draw.
Borussia Dortmund's focus for this season has clearly been the Champions League, and they are well positioned to go through to the Quarter Finals after a 2-2 draw away at Shakhtar Donetsk last week. This has led to them being fifteen points behind Bayern Munich in the league though and they have particularly suffered after midweek matches. They have actually won four from five since the winter break though, with a horrible 4-1 loss at home to Hamburg the blot on their record. They've been scoring plenty and with a week off European football they may well look to get some confidence in the side with a resounding win. I think the money here has to be for goals. Dortmund have nothing to lose really and their best approach is to pour forward anyway.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.78 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Istanbul BB v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1130
Firstly I would like to say how disappointed I was with Galatasaray in the Champions League this week, but those that watched it will know just how bad they were so I'll keep my opinions to myself! Suffice to say the Super Lig still has plenty of catching up to do in terms of tactics and discipline in the grander scheme of things.
On to the first match. Istanbul BB have at times looked a side with a chance of breaking into the top parts of the table and making a fist of getting into Europe. Unfortunately such is the disparity between the giants and the rest in Turkey it is likely to remain a dream without serious investment from outside. They used to have an excellent home record and they are still mostly hard to beat when on their own ground. A record of won three, drawn three and lost four may not look great on paper, but they've seldom been outclassed completely. They beat a perfectly good Bursaspor side 4-1 at home a fortnight ago to show the results they are capable of. That they followed this two losses on the spin goes to show they're not good enough for any length of time. This is purely a value bet though.
Eskisehirspor have a very good record in overall historical terms in Turkey and were a side I followed a lot when I was first looking at the Super Lig over two years ago. That season they were incredibly good at home and qualified for Europe. After a mixed start this season they really got going, but have recently fallen away again. A chronic problem of theirs had been a lack of goals, but they seem to have cleared that up now at the expense of a previously tight defence. They have only won two of the last nine and those were against sides even more out of form. I think they have to be opposed as decent favourites in this match.
Lay Eskisehirspor at 2.45 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Sivasspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1700
Sivasspor went through some major upheaval the season before last with some strange foreign signings (including Darius Vassell!), but seemed to dispense with all that almost immediately and get back to basics. This served them well last season as they hovered around the top end of the table before settling down comfortably mid-table in the end. This season had a slow start, and the previous flow of goals stopping was a major factor, but now they seem back on track. Their home record stayed very good even with this slow start and reads won five, drawn four and lost just two with eighteen scored and thirteen conceded. They're figures of a side just below Euopean places and they're let down by a poorer away record. Since the winter break they have only won two matches, but there was an excellent 2-1 away victory at Fenerbahce which shows their quality.
There looked likely to be only one side capable of stopping Galatasaray retaining their Super Lig title before the winter break and that was Besiktas. Unfortunately since they returned the Istanbul giants have reverted to type and inconsistency seems very likely to deny them any sort of challenge. I will always be dubious of them at short prices as they are an incredibly flaky side and got my fingers burnt a couple of times in their good pre-winter run, but I stand by my assertion that over time those prices will be wrong. I've made enough money laying them to be confident of that. They're not bad away and have got a couple of wins since the break, but they've also started to show ill discipline and I don't think the price is justified in this.
Lay Besiktas at 2.35 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Week 26
Liverpool v Swansea - Lose 2 points.
Huddersfield v Wigan - Lose 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid - Lose 2 points.
Catania v Bologna - Win 2.1 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Greuther Furth - Win 2.8 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04 - Win 1.37 points.
Antalyaspor v Karabukspor - Win 2.3 points.
Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce - Win 1.39 points.
Totals - Win 3.96 points.
Running Total - Up 49.6 points.
Music this week from The Ramones with Sheena Is A Punk Rocker, a true classic!
Reading v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Wigan, I hate betting on Wigan. This one seems too good to miss though. Reading really struggled in the first half of the Premier League season and looked absolute certainties to be relegated back down to the Championship after just a season. Thanks to the takeover by a Russian millionaire they were linked with numerous big money players from that area like Andrei Arshavin in January to bolster the squad for a push up the table. However comma none of these 'big names' materialised and manager Brian McDermott invested in lower league players with a bit of fight and hunger, the right thing to do in my opinion. Results have also begun to turn around with the defence beginning to look a lot more sure-footed and the attack really threatening. The main threat in attack has without a doubt been the arrival of Adam Le Fondre in the latter stages of matches to prey on tiring opposition legs. He's no all round star, but he is a predator and is certainly grabbing some goals. The never-say-die attitude they have displayed in numerous comebacks also shows the spirit in the squad has not been dented and even if they take a while to get going they should have too much for Wigan.
Wigan again took my money last weekend by soundly beating Huddersfield away in the FA Cup. I've professed numerous times how much I dislike betting on games involving them, but I'll go back this time and if I'm undone again then they're back on the 'do not bet' list. They do have some players with excellent ability in their squad and this showed last weekend against a side towards the bottom of the division below. The likes of Jordi Gomez, James McCarthy and others certainly can pass a ball around, but they're not cut out for a relegation battle, and that's where Wigan find themselves time after time. They concede too many due to this constant lack of grit and they haven't had a regular goalscorer to give them some breathing room either, they'll be in the scrap again this season.
Back Reading at 2.7 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Norwich v Everton, Saturday 1500
Norwich have been very good to me over the past eighteen months, due in no small part to being underestimated by the bookmakers in their first season back in the Premier League. They have to rely on battling to get every point as they definitely do not have many players that you would consider 'Premier League quality', but they get on with this most weeks. Their only real cerebral player is Wesley Hoolahan, and the diminutive Irish international is the point where most attacking play goes through. The rest of the side is made up of players from the lower leagues and bargain buys from Premier League clubs like the central defensive pairing of Sebastien Bassong and Michael Turner. The basis of their tactics is that everyone has a role and they are pretty rigid about sticking to these roles, in many ways they are the anti-Wigan and the results they get seem to back this approach up. They're not in world beating form, but if they can deal with Everton's physical approach, and they should be able to match them, then they can get something from this match.
Everton are still in the hunt for the fourth Champions League spot, although they'd probably concede they'll be likely to fall short. They started the season in exceptional form and have experienced a couple of rough patches, one of which was recently. They now go for a very physical attacking approach with Nikola Jelavic out of form and the first eleven by starting with Victor Anichebe being backed up by Marouane Fellaini. These two are huge physical specimens and fully capable of bullying anyone who isn't on top of their game against them. Fortunately for Norwich they have two rather large centre backs themselves helped out by Alexander Tettey in defensive midfield to cope. Everton's problems of late have come at the back with Johnny Heitinga having been very poor. The Dutch international seems to always be a moment away from a dreadful error and they will need to be verycareful as Norwich do have a good winger in Anthony Pilkington who will expose him given the chance.
Lay Everton at 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Celta Vigo v Granada, Sunday 1600
This one jumped out at me immediately. You may have spotted me following Granada's recent good run so I will continue with that this weekend in La Liga. Celta Vigo didn't start the season too badly, but as time has worn on they look increasingly like a side more fitted to the Segunda division. They find themselves third bottom at the moment and struggling for any sort of result. Their home form is actually the only reason they aren't cut adrift, as they are wretched away from home, but they haven't won a home match since early January either. In fact they are now six matches without a win and have not scored more than once in any of those either. They look increasingly short of confidence and certain to be involved in the relegation scrap.
Granada weren't looking too hot themselves before the winter break, but have been excellent since the return to action in January. They are still bottom half of the La Liga table, but are a whole six points clear of the relegation spots and in good form, they will be hoping for a couple more results in this run to pull further clear. They beat Real Madrid and Deportivo La Coruna before losing from in front against Barcelona last weekend and should be full of confidence still after only being undone by Lionel Messi's continued brilliance. They go won four, drawn one and lost seven away from home, but the odds seem far too short on Celta Vigo to me.
Lay Celta Vigo at 1.9 on Betfair. 2 points.
Atalanta v Roma, Sunday 1400
Atalanta were a side I had my eye on for a while too due to an excellent home record in Serie A, but they seem to have been lacklustre of late. This has seen them drop down the table and they are now in fifteenth position of twenty sides. They should be clear of relegation worries, but they could yet get dragged in if they continue as they are. Their home form reads won five, drawn three and lost four so far with twelve scored fourteen conceded. It's easy to pick out that a lack of goals is making them susceptible to losses as they will struggle to get two if they concede even one. Their last home in was in early December and they've played five since then at home and have in fact only got one win away at the awful Palermo in their last nine matches. A side completely out of form.
Roma dispensed with manager Zdenek Zeman recently after he failed to get them back to the all out attacking, team-destroying unit they were in his first spell at the club. He had sorted out them as an attacking force, but had alienated Daniele De Rossi as well as leaving the side hopelessly exposed at the back. He's made no secret of his approach being to always try and score more than the opposition though so really the Roma hierachy shouldn't have been too surprised. Aurelio Andreazolli has been given the managers role for now after being in the back up staff for a number of years and seems to have the side ticking over nicely. There's plenty of talented players there so if he organises the defence better and reinstalls a bit of dressing room harmony they should do much better. A brilliant win against Juventus last weekend should give them a boost.
Back Roma at 2.51 at Pinnacle Sports. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hamburg, Saturday 1430
Hannover are one of the sides in Germany that feature most regularly in this column. They are exactly the sort of side I like to be on the side of when the odds are appealing. They're a good side, consistent and have an excellent home record. If you can spot small runs of form for sides with quality players then that can be very profitable, and I try to, but reliability is key I think to long term gains. Hannover fit the bill when they're at home as they're plenty good enough to make even the best Bundesliga sides work for any points they get when visiting. This season so far they go seven wins, two draws and two losses at home with twenty three scored and fourteen conceded. In the Bundesliga both of those are excellent records and they haven't lost at home since mid-November.
Hamburg were a lay nearly every week last season for me as they were being priced on name alone a lot of the time when their form was such that they were very nearly relegated. If you look at the side they had then it was also very apparent there was no quality there at all either. This season started off just as poorly and the board stepped in to appoint a new manager and bring back huge crowd favourite Rafael Van Der Vaart to give the whole place a boost. This seems to have worked wonders as Hamburg are now within striking distance of a Europa League spot for next season. Their away form goes won three, drawn three and lost five so far with thirteen scored and fifteen conceded. I think they're to be opposed here.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.5 with Bet365. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Sunday 1430
The battle of the Borussia's! Both sides are also still involved in UEFA competitions as I right this too with Monchengladbach due to play away at Lazio this evening. Monchen have been a very hit and miss side this season after taking a much more attacking approach to matches following the sale of star man Marco Reus to Dortmund over the summer. Last season they were able to defend in numbers and count on Reus scoring the goals to win them tight matches. With him out of the team though they seem to now be going for a more all round attacking approach which has seen some great and terrible results so far. They do go five wins, three draws and just two losses at home so far with nineteen scored and thirteen conceded. This seems to suggest that the attacking is not quite as much of a thing at home where opponents are less likely to attack and leave space to exploit. They have actually won three of the last four at home with just 3-3 thriller with Leverkusen as the draw.
Borussia Dortmund's focus for this season has clearly been the Champions League, and they are well positioned to go through to the Quarter Finals after a 2-2 draw away at Shakhtar Donetsk last week. This has led to them being fifteen points behind Bayern Munich in the league though and they have particularly suffered after midweek matches. They have actually won four from five since the winter break though, with a horrible 4-1 loss at home to Hamburg the blot on their record. They've been scoring plenty and with a week off European football they may well look to get some confidence in the side with a resounding win. I think the money here has to be for goals. Dortmund have nothing to lose really and their best approach is to pour forward anyway.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.78 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Istanbul BB v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1130
Firstly I would like to say how disappointed I was with Galatasaray in the Champions League this week, but those that watched it will know just how bad they were so I'll keep my opinions to myself! Suffice to say the Super Lig still has plenty of catching up to do in terms of tactics and discipline in the grander scheme of things.
On to the first match. Istanbul BB have at times looked a side with a chance of breaking into the top parts of the table and making a fist of getting into Europe. Unfortunately such is the disparity between the giants and the rest in Turkey it is likely to remain a dream without serious investment from outside. They used to have an excellent home record and they are still mostly hard to beat when on their own ground. A record of won three, drawn three and lost four may not look great on paper, but they've seldom been outclassed completely. They beat a perfectly good Bursaspor side 4-1 at home a fortnight ago to show the results they are capable of. That they followed this two losses on the spin goes to show they're not good enough for any length of time. This is purely a value bet though.
Eskisehirspor have a very good record in overall historical terms in Turkey and were a side I followed a lot when I was first looking at the Super Lig over two years ago. That season they were incredibly good at home and qualified for Europe. After a mixed start this season they really got going, but have recently fallen away again. A chronic problem of theirs had been a lack of goals, but they seem to have cleared that up now at the expense of a previously tight defence. They have only won two of the last nine and those were against sides even more out of form. I think they have to be opposed as decent favourites in this match.
Lay Eskisehirspor at 2.45 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Sivasspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1700
Sivasspor went through some major upheaval the season before last with some strange foreign signings (including Darius Vassell!), but seemed to dispense with all that almost immediately and get back to basics. This served them well last season as they hovered around the top end of the table before settling down comfortably mid-table in the end. This season had a slow start, and the previous flow of goals stopping was a major factor, but now they seem back on track. Their home record stayed very good even with this slow start and reads won five, drawn four and lost just two with eighteen scored and thirteen conceded. They're figures of a side just below Euopean places and they're let down by a poorer away record. Since the winter break they have only won two matches, but there was an excellent 2-1 away victory at Fenerbahce which shows their quality.
There looked likely to be only one side capable of stopping Galatasaray retaining their Super Lig title before the winter break and that was Besiktas. Unfortunately since they returned the Istanbul giants have reverted to type and inconsistency seems very likely to deny them any sort of challenge. I will always be dubious of them at short prices as they are an incredibly flaky side and got my fingers burnt a couple of times in their good pre-winter run, but I stand by my assertion that over time those prices will be wrong. I've made enough money laying them to be confident of that. They're not bad away and have got a couple of wins since the break, but they've also started to show ill discipline and I don't think the price is justified in this.
Lay Besiktas at 2.35 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Thursday, 14 February 2013
Keeping Your Nose Above Water...
After the thrills of building a fantastic bank every week for the last seven, I'm afraid we'll have to console ourselves with a tiny profit this weekend! Mind you, that now means no losses for eight weeks for a free tips column. Not to get too cocky, but there's plenty of people out there who will charge a decent amount to give you tips offering little or no value at all. The way I want to do it is so that we can all have the fun of getting some bets on every week, but also to make us all some money. The only way I think that is viable is too look for an edge/value in the odds. It's all very well saying 'back Manchester United at home to QPR, they can't lose', and you'd be right most of the time. But, if the odds are way too short, you'll not have made enough money to cover the inevitable upset that WILL happen.
Week 25
Norwich v Fulham - Lose 2 points.
Sunderland v Arsenal - Lose 2 points.
Deportivo v Granada - Win 1.75 points.
Atalanta v Catania - Void
Hannover v Hoffenheim - Win 3.13 points.
Augsburg v Mainz - Win 1.39 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor - Lose 2 points.
Sivasspor v Trabzonspor - Win 1.37 points
Totals - Win 1.64 points.
Running Totals - Up 45.64 points.
Music this week from column favourite The Unseen with Paint It Black.
Liverpool v Swansea, Sunday 1600
Just one Premier League match this weekend with FA Cup matches on the agenda, but fortunately I think there's certainly a bet to be had. I was probably as bemused as anyone to see Brendan Rodgers describe Monday nights defeat at home to West Brom as 'the end of a terrific run'. Liverpool had won one in six before that and had been beaten by Oldham Athletic. I'll admit that at times since Daniel Sturridge's introduction they have shown signs of being a more threatening side, but they are a mid-table side now and make no mistake. The defence seems to have developed a worrying tendency to allow itself to be bullied by any sort of physical presence at all and the midfield offers very little help in that regard. Lucas Leiva's return to the side was trumpeted as a huge boost, but whilst he is undoubtably a nuisance, I don't think he adds much to this side. Steven Gerrard has again been the best performer for them, barring Luis Suarez, and that says it all after his struggles to adapt to the system early on in the season. How on earth they keep getting priced so short I don't know, but some idiots must still be backing them at the prices.
Swansea have kicked on since Brendan Rodgers moved to Anfield and Michael Laudrup came in to replace him. I've commented numerous times on who I think got the better end of that deal, and it's not the red half of Merseyside. The addition of some flair and goals to what was already a functional side at Swansea has seen them looking like an outside bet for Europe through their league position and odds on to win the League Cup and qualify that way anyway. Michu has been everyone's favourite addition to the side and ended his somewhat barren run with two goals against a woeful QPR side last weekend. They looked like they needed a confidence restoring win like that and should never be such long odds when they're a better overall side for me.
Lay Liverpool at 1.6 on Betfair. 2 points.
Huddersfield v Wigan, Sunday 1555
I've stated before I'm no lover of betting on friendlies or cup matches and that hasn't changed, although latter stages usually at least guarantee most sides are taking the cups seriously. This should be the case in the FA Cup matches this weekend, but there's an awful lot of short prices around. Probably justifiably so when you look at the draw. The only match that springs out to me is the trip Wigan have to Huddersfield. Huddersfield have appointed Mark Robins as manager this week after a season so far where they are only three points above the relegation places in the Championship. In his short managerial career so far though Robins seems to have promise. He had a good spell at Rotherham, did well at Barnsley for the most part and steadied Coventry too. I think he'll pull the Terriers to safety and a cup run continuing would really aid the spirit. There's not an awful lot of flair in the side, but against Wigan that may be a good thing.
Wigan have more important things to worry about than the FA Cup with them again in serious danger of relegation from the Premier League. They keep narrowly surviving, but with a lack of more than one truly dreadful side in the top division this year I think they'll fall. The manager Roberto Martinez gets his fair share of plaudits for trying to 'play the right way', but I would regard this as folly when it keeps putting them in danger. He might well do better with a better side, but I don't think a parting of ways would seriously harm either manager or club. I'd want a bit longer than their current odds to back them in this.
Lay Wigan at 2.12 on Betfair. 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 1800
The very definition of a mid-table side in La Liga this term is Valladolid. They're a solid side at home and get the odd result away to keep their heads above water. Their home form so far reads won five, drawn four and lost three. When two of those losses are to Real Madrid and Barcelona, and they gave a good account of themselves in both, you should see they're a very decent side. They've won two and drawn one at home since the winter break too to show they're still going well. Basically, they give anyone a match at their own ground.
Atletico Madrid are currently enjoying a season well ahead of city rivals Real Madrid in second position. They also seemed to have eliminated the inconsistencies that would see them look like world beaters one week and relegation candidates the next since Diego Simeone came in as manager. However comma since the end of December they're away form has unravelled a bit, leaving themselves in serious danger of being overtaken by Real. They've not won in six away from home, with four defeats in there too. Coming off a Europa League match on Thursday too I think you have to be against them in this.
Lay Atletico Madrid at 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Catania v Bologna, Sunday 1400
Slim pickings again in Serie A this week in terms of any sort of standout bet. Roma under new management could do better with more harmony so their match against Juventus is best left alone I think. A side I have mentioned a few times lately is Catania. For me they are the sort of side I like to keep an eye on for betting possibilities. They're no big name so in foreign leagues they can often slip under the radar of the odds compilers, or simply be left at appealing odds against the big boys as punters won't know to back them either. The reason I'm keen on them is their home form. They go eight wins, two draws and two defeats in Sicily so far, with the trip across the water not appealing to sides at all. They have also scored twenty (very good in Italy) and only conceded ten to show just how dominant they've been.
Bologna are more of a recognisable name to many outside of Italy, due to them having been in Serie A for a good proportion of the last decade or two. They look safely away from the relegation spots at present, but they seem to be more likely to drop to Serie B than to push towards Europe these days. They've ground out results at home to keep them away from the drop zone, but their away form is not good at all. They have won three and lost nine with no draws so far on the road and that's dreadful. Although one of those wins was just a fortnight ago, it was against the bottom side Pescara who look miles from a top division side.
Back Catania at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Greuther Furth, Saturday 1430
This match looks the pick of the bunch in betting terms in the Bundesliga this weekend to me. Both sides were promoted over the summer and both still harbour fears of returning to the Bundesliga II at this stage of the season. But, Fortuna Dusseldorf have far more chance of staying up due to one of the better home records in the bottom half of the table. They go four wins, four draws and three defeats with seventeen both scored and conceded. They lost two of those defeats back-to-back in October for nine goals to Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg in a terrible week for them. If you remove those and put them down to one useless week though, your left with a good home record. I'm happy to do so in this one.
Greuther Furth are bottom of the table and almost certain to be relegated with a paltry twelve points so far from twenty one matches. They simply look miles out of their depth at this level and only thirteen goals scored in those matches tells its own story about where there major flaw is. They've actually got their only two wins when on their travels, but they were both against sides in the worst spells of their seasons and I think the odds on the home side are generous.
Back Fortuna Dusseldorf at 2.4 at BetVictor. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
The odds on Mainz are shortening in this as I write so get on as quick as you can would be my advice! They have been involved in the European places now for a number of seasons thanks to the work of Jurgen Klopp and now Thomas Tuchel. Both of these appointments were seen as brave at the time, but the board have been proven to have an excellent eye for a coach in both instances. Klopp established the hard-working, pressing style most are now familiar with in his Borussia Dortmund side and Tuchel has carried on in this vein. They have a very good home record of won six, drawn one and lost three so far with fourteen scored and just nine conceded. They're not prone to attacking, but they score enough to get the results they need.
Schalke have been a favourite lay of mine since the start of December when I spotted them unravelling. They were last seasons surprise package for many with the goals of Klaas-Jan Huntelaar firing them to third in the table and the Champions League knockout stages too. This season they have found it much harder going with Huntelaar subdued with no Raul beside him. This led to the sacking of coach Huub Stevens before the winter break, but they don't look loads better yet to me. In their last two matches they have been beaten at home by the dreadful Greuther Furth and thrashed 4-0 by Bayern Munich.
Lay Schalke at 3.2 on Betfair. 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1700
Before the winter break I was following an Antalyaspor side who looked likely to be the surprise side in the Super Lig. Since they have returned though they have not looked the same side that beat Fenerbahce 3-1 away and was so lethal on the counter attack. In Turkey this is not unusual with the Istanbul giants having much bigger squads than everyone else and this eventually telling when injuries and tiredness set in for everybody else. As it is Antalya have been very good at home still, but have lost one of their last two in their own stadium as well as the last three away. They're out of form and look likely to drop down the table.
Karabukspor have been the side I've been following since the winter break and I think they've not been spotted as a side on the up yet by the odds compilers. They've grasped the attack when away fashion now so prevalent in Turkey and it has left them with an away record of won five, drawn one and lost five. They go for it and it usually goes one way or the other. They're actually also joint away scorers with twenty one in those eleven matches. Against an out of form Antalya I think they're worth a chance.
Lay Antalyaspor at 1.87 on Betfair. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1700
This one is a tough one to call as Trabzonspor are under a new coach and Fenerbahce are not good at all away from home. But, the crucial thing for me all season when being against Trabzon is the lack of goals in the side. It might seem obvious but you can't win if you don't score and that often factors in my decision of whether to lay a side. In Trabzon's case they have completely failed to adjust to life without the now Galatasaray striker Burak Yilmaz and this has left them miles off the European spots. Their home record of won five, drawn three and lost three is ok, but they've only beaten the divisions poorest sides. This is good enough to keep a side out of trouble, but no good for a team as big as Trabzonspor.
Fenerbahce have failed in their quest to take back the Super Lig title from eternal rivals Galatasaray this season. They've even fallen behind the other big side from the capital, Besiktas. They have pulled themselves to within a win of Besiktas now though and will be keen to get at least second spot and a shot at Champions League football next season. They've not won many away from home with a record of won three, drawn five and lost two, but they're not easy to beat either. With Trabzon so short of goals I couldn't back them in this one.
Lay Trabzonspor at 2.8 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Week 25
Norwich v Fulham - Lose 2 points.
Sunderland v Arsenal - Lose 2 points.
Deportivo v Granada - Win 1.75 points.
Atalanta v Catania - Void
Hannover v Hoffenheim - Win 3.13 points.
Augsburg v Mainz - Win 1.39 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor - Lose 2 points.
Sivasspor v Trabzonspor - Win 1.37 points
Totals - Win 1.64 points.
Running Totals - Up 45.64 points.
Music this week from column favourite The Unseen with Paint It Black.
Liverpool v Swansea, Sunday 1600
Just one Premier League match this weekend with FA Cup matches on the agenda, but fortunately I think there's certainly a bet to be had. I was probably as bemused as anyone to see Brendan Rodgers describe Monday nights defeat at home to West Brom as 'the end of a terrific run'. Liverpool had won one in six before that and had been beaten by Oldham Athletic. I'll admit that at times since Daniel Sturridge's introduction they have shown signs of being a more threatening side, but they are a mid-table side now and make no mistake. The defence seems to have developed a worrying tendency to allow itself to be bullied by any sort of physical presence at all and the midfield offers very little help in that regard. Lucas Leiva's return to the side was trumpeted as a huge boost, but whilst he is undoubtably a nuisance, I don't think he adds much to this side. Steven Gerrard has again been the best performer for them, barring Luis Suarez, and that says it all after his struggles to adapt to the system early on in the season. How on earth they keep getting priced so short I don't know, but some idiots must still be backing them at the prices.
Swansea have kicked on since Brendan Rodgers moved to Anfield and Michael Laudrup came in to replace him. I've commented numerous times on who I think got the better end of that deal, and it's not the red half of Merseyside. The addition of some flair and goals to what was already a functional side at Swansea has seen them looking like an outside bet for Europe through their league position and odds on to win the League Cup and qualify that way anyway. Michu has been everyone's favourite addition to the side and ended his somewhat barren run with two goals against a woeful QPR side last weekend. They looked like they needed a confidence restoring win like that and should never be such long odds when they're a better overall side for me.
Lay Liverpool at 1.6 on Betfair. 2 points.
Huddersfield v Wigan, Sunday 1555
I've stated before I'm no lover of betting on friendlies or cup matches and that hasn't changed, although latter stages usually at least guarantee most sides are taking the cups seriously. This should be the case in the FA Cup matches this weekend, but there's an awful lot of short prices around. Probably justifiably so when you look at the draw. The only match that springs out to me is the trip Wigan have to Huddersfield. Huddersfield have appointed Mark Robins as manager this week after a season so far where they are only three points above the relegation places in the Championship. In his short managerial career so far though Robins seems to have promise. He had a good spell at Rotherham, did well at Barnsley for the most part and steadied Coventry too. I think he'll pull the Terriers to safety and a cup run continuing would really aid the spirit. There's not an awful lot of flair in the side, but against Wigan that may be a good thing.
Wigan have more important things to worry about than the FA Cup with them again in serious danger of relegation from the Premier League. They keep narrowly surviving, but with a lack of more than one truly dreadful side in the top division this year I think they'll fall. The manager Roberto Martinez gets his fair share of plaudits for trying to 'play the right way', but I would regard this as folly when it keeps putting them in danger. He might well do better with a better side, but I don't think a parting of ways would seriously harm either manager or club. I'd want a bit longer than their current odds to back them in this.
Lay Wigan at 2.12 on Betfair. 2 points.
Real Valladolid v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 1800
The very definition of a mid-table side in La Liga this term is Valladolid. They're a solid side at home and get the odd result away to keep their heads above water. Their home form so far reads won five, drawn four and lost three. When two of those losses are to Real Madrid and Barcelona, and they gave a good account of themselves in both, you should see they're a very decent side. They've won two and drawn one at home since the winter break too to show they're still going well. Basically, they give anyone a match at their own ground.
Atletico Madrid are currently enjoying a season well ahead of city rivals Real Madrid in second position. They also seemed to have eliminated the inconsistencies that would see them look like world beaters one week and relegation candidates the next since Diego Simeone came in as manager. However comma since the end of December they're away form has unravelled a bit, leaving themselves in serious danger of being overtaken by Real. They've not won in six away from home, with four defeats in there too. Coming off a Europa League match on Thursday too I think you have to be against them in this.
Lay Atletico Madrid at 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Catania v Bologna, Sunday 1400
Slim pickings again in Serie A this week in terms of any sort of standout bet. Roma under new management could do better with more harmony so their match against Juventus is best left alone I think. A side I have mentioned a few times lately is Catania. For me they are the sort of side I like to keep an eye on for betting possibilities. They're no big name so in foreign leagues they can often slip under the radar of the odds compilers, or simply be left at appealing odds against the big boys as punters won't know to back them either. The reason I'm keen on them is their home form. They go eight wins, two draws and two defeats in Sicily so far, with the trip across the water not appealing to sides at all. They have also scored twenty (very good in Italy) and only conceded ten to show just how dominant they've been.
Bologna are more of a recognisable name to many outside of Italy, due to them having been in Serie A for a good proportion of the last decade or two. They look safely away from the relegation spots at present, but they seem to be more likely to drop to Serie B than to push towards Europe these days. They've ground out results at home to keep them away from the drop zone, but their away form is not good at all. They have won three and lost nine with no draws so far on the road and that's dreadful. Although one of those wins was just a fortnight ago, it was against the bottom side Pescara who look miles from a top division side.
Back Catania at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Greuther Furth, Saturday 1430
This match looks the pick of the bunch in betting terms in the Bundesliga this weekend to me. Both sides were promoted over the summer and both still harbour fears of returning to the Bundesliga II at this stage of the season. But, Fortuna Dusseldorf have far more chance of staying up due to one of the better home records in the bottom half of the table. They go four wins, four draws and three defeats with seventeen both scored and conceded. They lost two of those defeats back-to-back in October for nine goals to Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg in a terrible week for them. If you remove those and put them down to one useless week though, your left with a good home record. I'm happy to do so in this one.
Greuther Furth are bottom of the table and almost certain to be relegated with a paltry twelve points so far from twenty one matches. They simply look miles out of their depth at this level and only thirteen goals scored in those matches tells its own story about where there major flaw is. They've actually got their only two wins when on their travels, but they were both against sides in the worst spells of their seasons and I think the odds on the home side are generous.
Back Fortuna Dusseldorf at 2.4 at BetVictor. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
The odds on Mainz are shortening in this as I write so get on as quick as you can would be my advice! They have been involved in the European places now for a number of seasons thanks to the work of Jurgen Klopp and now Thomas Tuchel. Both of these appointments were seen as brave at the time, but the board have been proven to have an excellent eye for a coach in both instances. Klopp established the hard-working, pressing style most are now familiar with in his Borussia Dortmund side and Tuchel has carried on in this vein. They have a very good home record of won six, drawn one and lost three so far with fourteen scored and just nine conceded. They're not prone to attacking, but they score enough to get the results they need.
Schalke have been a favourite lay of mine since the start of December when I spotted them unravelling. They were last seasons surprise package for many with the goals of Klaas-Jan Huntelaar firing them to third in the table and the Champions League knockout stages too. This season they have found it much harder going with Huntelaar subdued with no Raul beside him. This led to the sacking of coach Huub Stevens before the winter break, but they don't look loads better yet to me. In their last two matches they have been beaten at home by the dreadful Greuther Furth and thrashed 4-0 by Bayern Munich.
Lay Schalke at 3.2 on Betfair. 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1700
Before the winter break I was following an Antalyaspor side who looked likely to be the surprise side in the Super Lig. Since they have returned though they have not looked the same side that beat Fenerbahce 3-1 away and was so lethal on the counter attack. In Turkey this is not unusual with the Istanbul giants having much bigger squads than everyone else and this eventually telling when injuries and tiredness set in for everybody else. As it is Antalya have been very good at home still, but have lost one of their last two in their own stadium as well as the last three away. They're out of form and look likely to drop down the table.
Karabukspor have been the side I've been following since the winter break and I think they've not been spotted as a side on the up yet by the odds compilers. They've grasped the attack when away fashion now so prevalent in Turkey and it has left them with an away record of won five, drawn one and lost five. They go for it and it usually goes one way or the other. They're actually also joint away scorers with twenty one in those eleven matches. Against an out of form Antalya I think they're worth a chance.
Lay Antalyaspor at 1.87 on Betfair. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1700
This one is a tough one to call as Trabzonspor are under a new coach and Fenerbahce are not good at all away from home. But, the crucial thing for me all season when being against Trabzon is the lack of goals in the side. It might seem obvious but you can't win if you don't score and that often factors in my decision of whether to lay a side. In Trabzon's case they have completely failed to adjust to life without the now Galatasaray striker Burak Yilmaz and this has left them miles off the European spots. Their home record of won five, drawn three and lost three is ok, but they've only beaten the divisions poorest sides. This is good enough to keep a side out of trouble, but no good for a team as big as Trabzonspor.
Fenerbahce have failed in their quest to take back the Super Lig title from eternal rivals Galatasaray this season. They've even fallen behind the other big side from the capital, Besiktas. They have pulled themselves to within a win of Besiktas now though and will be keen to get at least second spot and a shot at Champions League football next season. They've not won many away from home with a record of won three, drawn five and lost two, but they're not easy to beat either. With Trabzon so short of goals I couldn't back them in this one.
Lay Trabzonspor at 2.8 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Friday, 8 February 2013
The Runneth Continueth...
We're now at 7 weeks profit on the spin and looking good. A nice cushion to take us into the tail end of the season, and I'd like to think that the bets have become better along with my eye for value. This leads on to this weeks lesson; always keep learning. In gambling, as in life, you should analyse as much as possible good and bad things and attempt to improve going forward.
Week 24
Newcastle v Chelsea - Win 2.06 points.
Wigan v Southampton - Win 1.6 points.
Osasuna v Celta Vigo - Win 2.2 points.
Nurnberg v Monchengladbach - Lose 2 points.
Bayer Leverkusen v Dortmund - Win 2.4 points.
Besiktas v Karabukspor - Win 2.3 points.
Bursaspor v Galatasaray - Lose 2.5 points.
Totals - Win 6.06 points.
Running Total - Up 44 points.
Music from Living With Lions and My Dilemma.
Norwich v Fulham, Saturday 1500
A favourite team of mine at points both this season and last has been Norwich City. After a dreadful start under Chris Hughton this season they turned things round to the extent they embarked on a ten match unbeaten spell, before again struggling. This period of poor results seemed to come around the Xmas period when those in the Premier League with smaller squads will always feel the pressure of so many matches. Add in the fact that Norwich don't truly possess players of outstanding quality and it's not easy for them to get results when efforts are lacklustre. This period looks to me like it might well be easing though with a couple of better results again of late. I say of late, I really saw a much improved side against Spurs and QPR. Spurs have been excellent all season and were held to a fortunate 1-1 draw at Carrow Road before they restricted QPR to almost no chances at Loftus Road. I think they've got enough energy to assure themselves of safety in the coming weeks.
Fulham's horrendous away form is a huge weight around their necks, and has been for the previous three managers. Mark Hughes, Roy Hodgson and Martin Jol have all tried different approaches and different sides, but the one constant has been the dreadful form they've exhibited. I believe it is something like three wins away from Craven Cottage in three seasons, and they've really struggled in recent matches anyway. The loan signings Jol has made all have good pedigree, but they are not the sorts you would look to to grind out tough wins in hard matches. I think baring in mind this away form and Norwich's pick-up the home side look good odds.
Back Norwich City at 2.3 with BoyleSports. 2 points.
Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday 1500
Martin O'Neill's last two spells as a manager have showed that whilst he may no longer be one of the best in the business, his sides are generally tough to beat. He is generally inclined to only really go for a few goals in matches at home he is confident of being the better side in and this will not be one of those. This being said, only a very foolish manager would try to go at an Arsenal side who are still adept at picking teams off given the chance. The tactical approach I have mentioned has seen his side only conceding twelve goals in twelve home matches, which is a very good record for a side in a lower mid-table position. I also like the look of his new midfield signing Alfred N'Diaye from Bursaspor. The physically imposing midfielder looks an excellent prospect and already like he has taken to the Premier League in his four outings so far.
Arsenal have seemingly gone backwards in the past couple of seasons under Arsene Wenger. I will always have brilliant memories of the side he built around Patrick Vieira and Thierry Henry, but he looks increasingly out of touch at times. His refusal to change system, or bring in true top class players, used to look like a worthwhile crusade when so many excellent players were emerging from his youth sides. But barring the excellent Jack Wilshere, there has been very little to get excited about lately. Some of his signings have come in for undue criticism in my opinion, but they are nowhere near a top level side any more and are not be relied on in a tough away match at odds on for me.
Lay Arsenal at 1.91 on Betfair. 2 points.
Deportivo v Granada, Saturday 2100
There is again very little standing out to me in La Liga this week. I looked at backing Levante as I have done numerous times, but they look like they're generally old legs are creaking so I'll leave alone and monitor this week. The worst side in La Liga have been Deportivo La Coruna and they look set for a return to the Segunda division in the summer. They do have all three of their victories at home so far, but they have only one of those this year so far and have lost their last four matches.
Granada are the other 'feeder' club for Udinese, alongside Watford in England, and have won promotion and stayed up since the arrangement was agreed. They are by no means a great side, but they are possibly a goalscorer away from really pushing on towards the upper sections of the table. They've actually won three away matches and I think they're too long in this one.
Lay Deportivo La Coruna at 2.14 on Betfair. 2 points.
Atalanta v Catania, Sunday 1400
It's a simple question of home and away records for my only Serie A tip this weekend. Atalanta have possibly exceeded many expectations in Italy in the last season and a half by making themselves pretty comfortable in the countries top division. This has been built on the back of an excellent home record and being extremely tough to beat. Any side that comes to tehir stadium and emerges with a win will be certain to have earned it. They go five wins, two draws and four losses at home. In these matches they have also only conceded twelve goals, which should probably exclude the freak 5-1 mauling they took from Torino back in November. If we lose that result they concede less than a goal a game and that's an excellent starting point for a mid-table side.
Catania have been involved a couple of times recently on here as they also have built a reputation for being a fearsome prospect at home. They have already beaten Fiorentina, Roma and Lazio at their ground to climb to seventh in the table. However comma they have been let down by a poor away record which will be likely to prevent them from pushing any higher up the table and challenging for European football. They go won two, drawn three and lost six away from Sicily. They have also conceded a whopping twenty goals in those eleven matches. Taking into account Atalanta's defence and the chances the attackers are likely to get I think you have to be against Catania here.
Back Atalanta Draw No Bet at 1.61 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
First up from the Bundesliga is a former column favourite side. Hannover have spent the last few seasons putting together a side who are very clear in their tactics and were very reliable to beta the teams they should and make it tough for the better sides, sometimes springing a shock. Unfortunately, this season their performances have dropped off bit and they are currently languishing in mid-table obscurity in tenth position. This has mostly been down to a real dip in away results though, their home form has remained excellent. In ten home matches they go six wins, two draws and two losses so far. They have gone for a fairly attacking tactical system at home which has seen them scoring twenty two goals in those ten matches and conceding fourteen. With any attacking formation there is an element of risk that you'll be caught out at the back, but so far it seems Hannover have struck a good balance. Since the winter break they have won their solitary home match and lost both away games. They should take great heart from the performances in those two away matches though, narrowly being on the wrong side of a 5-4 result at Schalke and also being beaten by two goal in the last five minutes last weekend at Bremen.
Hoffenheim were something of a fairytale story for neutrals when they climbed Germany's league system and reached the Bundesliga. In their own country though they have been pretty unloved due to the money bieng pumped in by a sole benefactor being against the norm for football clubs. This being the case, many have enjoyed seeing them steadily dropping down the table since their initial burst in their first season in the top flight. This has now happened to such an extent they look certain to be at least involved in a promotion/relegation play-off if not outright relegated to the Bundesliga II. Their tally of sixteen points is dreadful and they have been particularly awful on their travels. Their away record reads won one, drawn one and lost seven with eleven scored and twenty one conceded. It would be fair to say they've looked slightly more organised since the winter break, but Hannover should be trusted to get the job done.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.25 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Augsburg v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
Possibly the second side I've most followed in Germany in the past eighteen months in Mainz under their excellent manager Thomas Tuchel. The young German has instilled a terrific work ethic in his side which can be seen in the constant pressing and harrying they produce every match to wear sides out and then take advantage. This has seen them regularly involved in the European qualification spots and they are in fifth spot and well placed to again compete in the Europa League. They don't have an awesome away record, but they do still have one of the best goals against records away so they're not getting turned over at all. They go won three, drawn two and lost five with thirteen scored and fifteen conceded so far. It's not great, but Augsburg are thankfully worse.
As mentioned Augsburg look doomed to return to their, probably rightful, place in the Bundesliga II this summer. They did excellently to survive in the end last season for another crack at the top sides, but they look out of their depth too regularly and are second bottom with just fourteen points. They have been equally poor at home and away with mirroring records of won one, drawn four and lost five from ten matches. They've conceded fifteen in those ten at home, which isn't actually that bad in a high scoring league like the Bundesliga, but their goals for of seven is the real issue.
Lay Augsburg at 2.8 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor, Saturday 1700
Both weekends since the winter break in Turkey I've been behind Karabukspor and they've served me well. A personal betting plan of mine is to try and spot good runs of form early from decent sides outside of the 'names' in foreign leagues. There's no weight of money at an English bookmaker in general for these sides so the odds are much more likely to be slightly out and represent a value bet if my picks are correct. And since they'll nearly always be good value, you would expect to come out on top in the long term from betting these sorts of selections anyway. Karabuk are exactly right for this as a mid-table side who don't get beaten easily at all and have the ability to give any side in Turkey a game, as evidenced by beating Galatasaray at Gala earlier in the season. They have actually picked up more points on their travels so far, but they have played eleven away compared to nine at home. IN these nine home matches they go three wins, three draws and three losses with seven scored and ten conceded. They are definitely part of the current trend to go all out away from home in Turkey and those goal figures show how tight they keep it at home in general.
Bursaspor slightly spoiled an almost perfect weekend last time out by holding Galatasaray to a draw in Bursa. They're still a decent side, but they are now way off the team they were when emerging with serious backing to win the Super Lig a few years ago. Their policy of recruiting abroad looks as flawed as the approach Besiktas had taken in the past four years and they would do well to go back to basics. They actually sit a place above Karabukspor as things stand and are something of the leagues draw specialists. They have ten draws in total from just twenty matches so far. They seem to be able to scrap to a draw, and also just as liable to let a side back in for a draw so I think there's reason to back such an eventuality again in this.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with Bet365. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1130
As mentioned above, it's worth keeping an eye out for little runs of form from decent sides. This appears a case in point here for Sivasspor after an excellent away win at Fenerbahce last weekend I would expect them to kick on a little bit now. If you look at their home record so far then they've already been very good, although they were beaten 2-1 recently by a Mersin Idman Yurdu side who do seem to specialise in away upsets. Their home record is won four, drawn four and lost just twice with sixteen scored and thirteen conceded. For a mid-table side those are not bad figures at all, although the goals against shows they will give a side chances. Thankfully most teams in Turkey struggle for goals so they're not going to get punished all that often.
Trabzonspor have been a side I have been happy to oppose most weeks this season. Another thing I'll often look at is being against sides that struggle for goals if the odds are right to do so. Trabzonspor have been a fixture in the upper echelons of the Super Lig forever it seems and are certainly one of the big four names most would associate with Turkish football. This can see the odds given by English bookmakers possibly over-estimating their level, as they have done often this season. Sines selling Burak Yilmaz to Galatasaray over the summer they have failed to replace his goals at all. The side was built to supply him and it shouldn't really come as a surprise that with half the sides goals removed they've struggled to cope. They also have one of the worst away records in the top half of the table with won two, drawn three and lost four so far with eleven goals scored and conceded. I can't have them as marginal favs in this.
Lay Trabzonspor at 2.82 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Week 24
Newcastle v Chelsea - Win 2.06 points.
Wigan v Southampton - Win 1.6 points.
Osasuna v Celta Vigo - Win 2.2 points.
Nurnberg v Monchengladbach - Lose 2 points.
Bayer Leverkusen v Dortmund - Win 2.4 points.
Besiktas v Karabukspor - Win 2.3 points.
Bursaspor v Galatasaray - Lose 2.5 points.
Totals - Win 6.06 points.
Running Total - Up 44 points.
Music from Living With Lions and My Dilemma.
Norwich v Fulham, Saturday 1500
A favourite team of mine at points both this season and last has been Norwich City. After a dreadful start under Chris Hughton this season they turned things round to the extent they embarked on a ten match unbeaten spell, before again struggling. This period of poor results seemed to come around the Xmas period when those in the Premier League with smaller squads will always feel the pressure of so many matches. Add in the fact that Norwich don't truly possess players of outstanding quality and it's not easy for them to get results when efforts are lacklustre. This period looks to me like it might well be easing though with a couple of better results again of late. I say of late, I really saw a much improved side against Spurs and QPR. Spurs have been excellent all season and were held to a fortunate 1-1 draw at Carrow Road before they restricted QPR to almost no chances at Loftus Road. I think they've got enough energy to assure themselves of safety in the coming weeks.
Fulham's horrendous away form is a huge weight around their necks, and has been for the previous three managers. Mark Hughes, Roy Hodgson and Martin Jol have all tried different approaches and different sides, but the one constant has been the dreadful form they've exhibited. I believe it is something like three wins away from Craven Cottage in three seasons, and they've really struggled in recent matches anyway. The loan signings Jol has made all have good pedigree, but they are not the sorts you would look to to grind out tough wins in hard matches. I think baring in mind this away form and Norwich's pick-up the home side look good odds.
Back Norwich City at 2.3 with BoyleSports. 2 points.
Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday 1500
Martin O'Neill's last two spells as a manager have showed that whilst he may no longer be one of the best in the business, his sides are generally tough to beat. He is generally inclined to only really go for a few goals in matches at home he is confident of being the better side in and this will not be one of those. This being said, only a very foolish manager would try to go at an Arsenal side who are still adept at picking teams off given the chance. The tactical approach I have mentioned has seen his side only conceding twelve goals in twelve home matches, which is a very good record for a side in a lower mid-table position. I also like the look of his new midfield signing Alfred N'Diaye from Bursaspor. The physically imposing midfielder looks an excellent prospect and already like he has taken to the Premier League in his four outings so far.
Arsenal have seemingly gone backwards in the past couple of seasons under Arsene Wenger. I will always have brilliant memories of the side he built around Patrick Vieira and Thierry Henry, but he looks increasingly out of touch at times. His refusal to change system, or bring in true top class players, used to look like a worthwhile crusade when so many excellent players were emerging from his youth sides. But barring the excellent Jack Wilshere, there has been very little to get excited about lately. Some of his signings have come in for undue criticism in my opinion, but they are nowhere near a top level side any more and are not be relied on in a tough away match at odds on for me.
Lay Arsenal at 1.91 on Betfair. 2 points.
Deportivo v Granada, Saturday 2100
There is again very little standing out to me in La Liga this week. I looked at backing Levante as I have done numerous times, but they look like they're generally old legs are creaking so I'll leave alone and monitor this week. The worst side in La Liga have been Deportivo La Coruna and they look set for a return to the Segunda division in the summer. They do have all three of their victories at home so far, but they have only one of those this year so far and have lost their last four matches.
Granada are the other 'feeder' club for Udinese, alongside Watford in England, and have won promotion and stayed up since the arrangement was agreed. They are by no means a great side, but they are possibly a goalscorer away from really pushing on towards the upper sections of the table. They've actually won three away matches and I think they're too long in this one.
Lay Deportivo La Coruna at 2.14 on Betfair. 2 points.
Atalanta v Catania, Sunday 1400
It's a simple question of home and away records for my only Serie A tip this weekend. Atalanta have possibly exceeded many expectations in Italy in the last season and a half by making themselves pretty comfortable in the countries top division. This has been built on the back of an excellent home record and being extremely tough to beat. Any side that comes to tehir stadium and emerges with a win will be certain to have earned it. They go five wins, two draws and four losses at home. In these matches they have also only conceded twelve goals, which should probably exclude the freak 5-1 mauling they took from Torino back in November. If we lose that result they concede less than a goal a game and that's an excellent starting point for a mid-table side.
Catania have been involved a couple of times recently on here as they also have built a reputation for being a fearsome prospect at home. They have already beaten Fiorentina, Roma and Lazio at their ground to climb to seventh in the table. However comma they have been let down by a poor away record which will be likely to prevent them from pushing any higher up the table and challenging for European football. They go won two, drawn three and lost six away from Sicily. They have also conceded a whopping twenty goals in those eleven matches. Taking into account Atalanta's defence and the chances the attackers are likely to get I think you have to be against Catania here.
Back Atalanta Draw No Bet at 1.61 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
First up from the Bundesliga is a former column favourite side. Hannover have spent the last few seasons putting together a side who are very clear in their tactics and were very reliable to beta the teams they should and make it tough for the better sides, sometimes springing a shock. Unfortunately, this season their performances have dropped off bit and they are currently languishing in mid-table obscurity in tenth position. This has mostly been down to a real dip in away results though, their home form has remained excellent. In ten home matches they go six wins, two draws and two losses so far. They have gone for a fairly attacking tactical system at home which has seen them scoring twenty two goals in those ten matches and conceding fourteen. With any attacking formation there is an element of risk that you'll be caught out at the back, but so far it seems Hannover have struck a good balance. Since the winter break they have won their solitary home match and lost both away games. They should take great heart from the performances in those two away matches though, narrowly being on the wrong side of a 5-4 result at Schalke and also being beaten by two goal in the last five minutes last weekend at Bremen.
Hoffenheim were something of a fairytale story for neutrals when they climbed Germany's league system and reached the Bundesliga. In their own country though they have been pretty unloved due to the money bieng pumped in by a sole benefactor being against the norm for football clubs. This being the case, many have enjoyed seeing them steadily dropping down the table since their initial burst in their first season in the top flight. This has now happened to such an extent they look certain to be at least involved in a promotion/relegation play-off if not outright relegated to the Bundesliga II. Their tally of sixteen points is dreadful and they have been particularly awful on their travels. Their away record reads won one, drawn one and lost seven with eleven scored and twenty one conceded. It would be fair to say they've looked slightly more organised since the winter break, but Hannover should be trusted to get the job done.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.25 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Augsburg v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
Possibly the second side I've most followed in Germany in the past eighteen months in Mainz under their excellent manager Thomas Tuchel. The young German has instilled a terrific work ethic in his side which can be seen in the constant pressing and harrying they produce every match to wear sides out and then take advantage. This has seen them regularly involved in the European qualification spots and they are in fifth spot and well placed to again compete in the Europa League. They don't have an awesome away record, but they do still have one of the best goals against records away so they're not getting turned over at all. They go won three, drawn two and lost five with thirteen scored and fifteen conceded so far. It's not great, but Augsburg are thankfully worse.
As mentioned Augsburg look doomed to return to their, probably rightful, place in the Bundesliga II this summer. They did excellently to survive in the end last season for another crack at the top sides, but they look out of their depth too regularly and are second bottom with just fourteen points. They have been equally poor at home and away with mirroring records of won one, drawn four and lost five from ten matches. They've conceded fifteen in those ten at home, which isn't actually that bad in a high scoring league like the Bundesliga, but their goals for of seven is the real issue.
Lay Augsburg at 2.8 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor, Saturday 1700
Both weekends since the winter break in Turkey I've been behind Karabukspor and they've served me well. A personal betting plan of mine is to try and spot good runs of form early from decent sides outside of the 'names' in foreign leagues. There's no weight of money at an English bookmaker in general for these sides so the odds are much more likely to be slightly out and represent a value bet if my picks are correct. And since they'll nearly always be good value, you would expect to come out on top in the long term from betting these sorts of selections anyway. Karabuk are exactly right for this as a mid-table side who don't get beaten easily at all and have the ability to give any side in Turkey a game, as evidenced by beating Galatasaray at Gala earlier in the season. They have actually picked up more points on their travels so far, but they have played eleven away compared to nine at home. IN these nine home matches they go three wins, three draws and three losses with seven scored and ten conceded. They are definitely part of the current trend to go all out away from home in Turkey and those goal figures show how tight they keep it at home in general.
Bursaspor slightly spoiled an almost perfect weekend last time out by holding Galatasaray to a draw in Bursa. They're still a decent side, but they are now way off the team they were when emerging with serious backing to win the Super Lig a few years ago. Their policy of recruiting abroad looks as flawed as the approach Besiktas had taken in the past four years and they would do well to go back to basics. They actually sit a place above Karabukspor as things stand and are something of the leagues draw specialists. They have ten draws in total from just twenty matches so far. They seem to be able to scrap to a draw, and also just as liable to let a side back in for a draw so I think there's reason to back such an eventuality again in this.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with Bet365. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1130
As mentioned above, it's worth keeping an eye out for little runs of form from decent sides. This appears a case in point here for Sivasspor after an excellent away win at Fenerbahce last weekend I would expect them to kick on a little bit now. If you look at their home record so far then they've already been very good, although they were beaten 2-1 recently by a Mersin Idman Yurdu side who do seem to specialise in away upsets. Their home record is won four, drawn four and lost just twice with sixteen scored and thirteen conceded. For a mid-table side those are not bad figures at all, although the goals against shows they will give a side chances. Thankfully most teams in Turkey struggle for goals so they're not going to get punished all that often.
Trabzonspor have been a side I have been happy to oppose most weeks this season. Another thing I'll often look at is being against sides that struggle for goals if the odds are right to do so. Trabzonspor have been a fixture in the upper echelons of the Super Lig forever it seems and are certainly one of the big four names most would associate with Turkish football. This can see the odds given by English bookmakers possibly over-estimating their level, as they have done often this season. Sines selling Burak Yilmaz to Galatasaray over the summer they have failed to replace his goals at all. The side was built to supply him and it shouldn't really come as a surprise that with half the sides goals removed they've struggled to cope. They also have one of the worst away records in the top half of the table with won two, drawn three and lost four so far with eleven goals scored and conceded. I can't have them as marginal favs in this.
Lay Trabzonspor at 2.82 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
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