Last weekend saw some well needed profit which will hopefully put us back in the black before Xmas and with a few weeks to rebuild our bank. Those who follow @TopTopTips on the Twitter will also have so far made some decent extra reddies on the Champions League, which has been very profitable for us this season so far. There has also been good money made on the Europa League and I will be giving out a few more selections for that too.
Week Fourteen
QPR v Southampton - Win 2.06 points.
West Brom v Chelsea - Win 2.04 points.
Deportivo v Levante - Win 1.48 points.
Napoli v AC Milan - Lose 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Freiburg - Lose 2 points.
Monchengladbach v Stuttgart - Win 1.75 points
Eskisehirspor v Fenerbahce - Void.
Antalyaspor v Besiktas - (changed to Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 on Twitter on Saturday) Win 1.8 points.
Total - Win 5.23 points
Running Total - Up 1.74 points.
Music this week comes from Union 13 with The Game.
Aston Villa v Arsenal, Saturday 1730
Aston Villa look like they finally be turning a corner under Paul Lambert after the long, slow fall they have been in since Martin O'Neill's last days and the disastrous reign of Alex McCleish. They're not going to be pushing for European football any time soon with the players at Lambert's disposal, but they do seem to be settling into a system that is capable of giving most sides a tough time. A big part of this has coincided with the return to the side of Steven Ireland. The Irishman was touted as a huge prospect when at Manchester City but a fragile ego seemed to have left him scrabbling around for the odd substitute at both Newcastle and Villa. Lambert has taken him under his wing and restored him to the role behind the striker and he is thriving again. The striker is Belgium's Cristian Benteke and whilst he may not have Darren Bent's ability to squeeze out a goal, he offers far more to the team with his physicality and aerial ability. He currently looks a handful for any opposing side and Arsenal still have a weakness for physical approaches and in the air from set pieces so presumably Lambert will look to exploit this.
Arsenal presently seem to be in a small run themselves. This should be tempered by analysis of the matches though for me. If you watch the North London derby against Tottenham you will see that whilst Spurs had a full side out they came close to scoring three times in fifteen minutes before Emanuel Adebayor's absolutely ridiculous challenge saw him sent off. It's not too much of a stretch in my opinion to think that Spurs would have added to their tally with eleven men and gone on to win that match. Then last night against Montpellier, a side who are struggling in the generally poor Ligue Un in France, they had plenty of possession but failed to make it look threatening for the entire first half. That they eventually won 2-0 was more of a damning verdict on Montpellier than any particular achievement. The three things that have been positive in the last couple of weeks are the form of Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud alongside the return to fitness of Santi Cazorla. Walcott was a constant threat to Spurs and Giroud now has nine goals for the season after finding his feet and the team playing to his strengths. Cazorla has quickly established himself as the metronome of the side that dictates the rhythm and the side seems to only play well when the Spaniard does. If Villa can shackle Cazorla they will greatly disrupt Arsenal's play.
Lay Arsenal at 1.75 on Betfair. 2 points.
Swansea v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
It's a full schedule on Sunday with the Europa League being played midweek. Swansea have had a topsy turvy season so far, which is probably to be expected with a new manager and quite a few new additions to the side. Michael Laudrup shone at Getafe as a manager where he dragged the tiny Spanish side into European competition on a meagre budget, but he then failed miserably at Mallorca under the same restrictions. The jury is definitely still out on him and he will want to make a success of his time in Wales. His side started the season in some style with back to back wins done with no little style and plenty of goals. This could not continue forever and the Swans went through a five game spell without a win. They are not getting outclassed very often though, they are picking up plenty of draws, but they need to improve if they are to avoid getting dragged down the table. They go won two, drew three and only lost one at home so far to show that no side gets an easy game over the border. With players like Michu, Pablo Hernandez and Ki Sung-Yueng in the side that's no great surprise, it is finding a way to get the best out of them every week that will determine Laudrup's success.
Liverpool seem to have found a way of supplying Luis Suarez regularly and it has seen something of an upturn in results for the most part. With the Uruguyan far and away the best player in the current side it is Brendan Rodgers best hope of turning results around to play to his strengths and especially if he wants to hang on to his job long enough to turn things around. Suarez can appear very wasteful at times, and I have criticised him previously for this, but there is probably no player in the division that Liverpool would rather have. He may well be something of a dislikeable character, but that can also be used to motivate him and to draw those around him to the cause of rehabilitating him. For this I will give Rodgers credit. Apart from that though he has failed to convince me his time at Swansea was not a one off success after a dreadful spell at Reading previously. The jury is out and if Swansea can shackle Suarez or he has an off day then Liverpool's odds will look very short.
Back Swansea at 2.62 Draw No Bet at Coral. 2 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Mallorca, Saturday 1500
There's not many inspiring prices this weekend in Spain, and truth be told this is simply the most appealing of what's there. Rayo Vallecano have been very entertaining both this season and last with their commitment to attacking at all times providing plenty of thrills. This can on occasion lead to defeats in matches they are expected to win, but this has happened more away than at home. It also means they don't draw many matches, only one so far this season home or away. They have actually struggled for goals themselves as they lack a finisher in attack and this somewhat damages their chances, but they're up against a pretty uninspiring Mallorca side.
Mallorca currently hover just above the relegation spots and I'd not expect them to pull clear this season, they have every chance of going down too. They don't score enough goals and are absolutely dire when away from home. They have a record of played six, drawn three and lost three away with not a win to their name. They will not be looking forward to this trip at all.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.2 with BetVictor. 1.5 points.
Torino v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
Torino returned to Serie A over the summer and have been something of a mixed bag. They've not been outclassed in any match so far, and have picked up a couple of excellent wins along the way, but they draw too many matches away and don't score enough goals. They've only scored more than one in a match in two games, take these two matches away and their record is scored 5 in eleven. So whilst they obviously can turn it on, I would not be backing them to do so. They have only one win in their last seven matches played and desperately could do with a positive result before all the draws start slipping to defeats.
Fiorentina are probably the surprise package of the Serie A season so far. They appointed Vincenzo Montella over the summer as manager and he brought in no less than nine new players to revamp the side. Many would have expected a side that has been up and down recntly, with a new young manager and lots of new players to possibly struggle to string performances together, but Montella has greatly enhanced his burgeoning reputation by getting results already. They currently lie in third position in the table and look likely to be involved in Europe next year in some capacity. They have won five matches on the bounce both home and away and are the side noone wants to face at the moment with goals coming from all over the pitch. They have to be backed at these odds.
Back Fiorentina at 2.45 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
Mainz have become a semi regular feature in the column as they are a settled side who are hard to beat. This season we've had mixed results with them, but I'm going to take a chance on them again. The reasoning behind this is that they are a very organised side who press teams and look for mistakes to be exploited as they wear the opposition down. For this reason they have had some very impressive results against the best sides in recent years and look destined to feature in European competition again next season. The fact they are out of the Europa League does mean they get a rest on weeks when other sides play their European matches. They have an excellent home record so far this season of played five, won four and lost just one. In this time they've also scored eight goals and only conceded two so far to make it an intimidating place for opposition sides.
Borussia Dortmund have looked better in the Champions League this season after a fairly disappointing showing last year. This does seem to have impacted their league form though, with them often looking tired after a midweek match. This is probably no huge surprise as they rely on pressing teams for ninety minutes and they have had a very tough group to qualify from in the Champions League. They currently sit in fourth position in the Bundesliga and they may have already accepted that they will not be getting a third title in a row with Bayern Munich pulling so far ahead already. With an away record of played six, won two, drawn three and lost one this will probably be the reason they fail in that challenge if it continues. I think they have to be opposed here.
Lay Borussia Dortmund at 1.66 on Betfair. 2 points.
Augsburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Sunday 1630
Augsburg currently sit bottom of the Bundesliga with just one win all season home and away. They struggled after being promoted all of last season and narrowly escaped relegation, but it looks very likely that this year they will return to the Bundesliga II. It is not hard to locate their problems, they don't score nearly enough and concede far too many. They have played twelve matches and only scored eight goals whilst conceding twenty two so far. Their sole win came at home to Werder Bremen on one of the away sides off days that can see them looking as poor as anyone in the division. They have now been beaten by two goals in each of their last three matches too and they look ridiculously underpriced in this.
Monchengladbach have completed a full about turn to be this seasons most exciting side for the neutral with forty one goals scored in matches involving them. This change of approach in the absence of star man Marco Reus has seen mixed results and has them in mid-table currently. These mixed results are perfectly illustrated by a record of two wins, two draws and two losses in both the home and away columns to show they are capable of any result at any time. They were on a run of three unbeaten matches before succumbing 2-1 at home to Stuttgart last weekend and should still fancy their chances against the divisions most awful side.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 3.2 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Gaziantepspor v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1400
First up from the Super Lig is Istanbul BB's trip to Gaziantepspor. Gaziantep have had a few seasons where they made challenges for the European positions before falling away late on in the season. This is not unfamiliar in Turkey where the squad sizes aside from the giants are pretty small and players tire quickly. This season however comma Gaziantep have struggled to gain wins and sit just above the relegation zone desperate for points. They have a record of three wins and three losses at home so far with nine goals scored and seven conceded. This goes to show that they are still capable of beating anyone on their day, but you're gambling on them turning up.
Istanbul BB were another side that has given the big boys something to think about in recent seasons. They had a very good home record two seasons ago that dragged them through and then after Xmas last season they started looking more likely to pick up wins away from home. They currently sit one position above their opponents on Sunday and for them it is their away record that is their strong suit. They have played six, won three and lost three away and similarly to Gazinatep can not be particularly relied upon. Their has been seven goals for and six against in those matches though and I think looking at both sides mixed records and ability to score and conced it has to be a goals bet here.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with Paddy Power. 2.5 points.
Trabzonspor v Eskisehirspor, Monday 1800
Trabzonspor are another side that have featured regularly in the column this season due to the reliability of their results. They are very good at home with four wins, one draw and a solitary loss from six matches, but they still haven't found a regular way of scoring goals. They have scored just eight in those six matches and their strength can be seen in them only conceding three in the same timeframe. That they have managed to get four wins at home is something of a surprise to me as they have not looked entirely convincing to me. The only side they have scored more than one against are the two newly promoted strugglers and this will be much more of a test.
Eskisehirspor fell away horribly last season after a good start and they almost made Europe the season before that too. The issue they had for both seasons was a lack of goals forcing them to eke out numerous one nil victories, but left them susceptible to plenty of draws as they could not pull away from sides. They have actually scored plenty at home this season, but seem to set up differently away and look to shut games down and play for a tight match. This is back to the way they used to play home and away so is not too much of a stretch for the players either as they are well used to it. They only have one win away so far to go with two draws and three losses, but they have not been well beaten in any of them. They're in decent form and Trabzon look a little short to me.
Lay Trabzonspor at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Thursday, 22 November 2012
Thursday, 15 November 2012
Another Dull Midweek...
International friendlies, boooorrriiinnnggg. Thank the lord for Zlatan Ibrahomovic. The giant Swede once again showed that whilst he may not be on Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo's level, he certainly inhabits the level below. Other than that there's been exceptionally little action so straight to totting up last weekend.
Week Thirteen
Everton v Sunderland - Win 1.59 points.
Chelsea v Liverpool - Lose 2.5 points.
Espanyol v Osasuna - Lose 1.5 points.
Levante v Real Madrid - Lose 1 point.
Atalanta v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg - Win 1.6 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Antalyaspor - Void.
Totals - Lose 6.8 points.
Running Total - Down 3.49 points.
Musical accompaniment this week from The Ramones with Beat On The Brat.
QPR v Southampton, Saturday 1500
It's a funny week in the Premier League for me this week as I think you could honestly make a case for all the favourites being a bit short priced. Obviously though some are more than others and this one screams out at me. I actually went to watch QPR play Reading in the League Cup when they somehow threw away a lead twice and lost 3-2 at home. They looked as dreadful that night as the write ups on their performances would have you believe. I'm no fan of Mark Hughes as a manager to begin with, he did a creditable job with Wales and Blackburn although I don't think they justify his opinion of himself. He has spent a considerable amount of money bringing some big names to Loftus Road and has yet to find a way to get a performance out of them that deserves a win. The defence is a huge issue, they look thoroughly disorganised and every side will get chances against them at some stage. Julio Cesar was brought in as a big name goalkeeper, but I think he's at least two seasons past his peak and is not giving any confidence to those in front of him. In attack Junior Hoilett and Djibril Cisse will always cause a side problems with their direct running and pace, but neither player is looking confident in front of goal so as well as shipping too many they are not scoring enough either.
Southampton have shot through the divisions under manager Nigel Adkins and have looked unsurprisingly shaky this term so far. They do look a lot more threatening in front of goal than their opponents, but possibly have the worst defence in the entire division. They have conceded twenty nine goals already in just eleven matches, nine more than their nearest challengers, and when you look at the personnel it is no real shock. Kelvin Davis is a reliable goalkeeper below the top division but has previously shown he is not up to it in the Premier League. The full backs Nathaniel Clyne and Maya Yoshida are actually good going forward, but are both poor positionally when defending and leave the team exposed. Jose Fonte and Jos Hooiveld in the centre of defence are simply not top level players. Their best chance would appear to be attacking and this is what they do. Morgan Schneiderlin, Steven Davis, Adam Lallana and Gaston Ramirez are all attack minded midfielders and they support Jay Rodriguez and Rickie Lambert who are both capable of causing problems. QPR look short priced for a side there to be attacked and having trouble scoring.
Lay QPR at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
West Brom v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
The other match that looks the standout lay to me is Chelsea away at the seasons over-achievers West Brom. Since appointing ex-coach of both Chelsea and Liverpool, Steve Clarke, as manager West Brom have performed exceptionally well. Clarke was renowned for his work with defences at both the aforementioned clubs so it is no surprise to see the Baggies are tactically set up well at the back and keep chances given at a minimum. Perhaps the surprise has been that Clarke has got the best out of forwards Shane Long and Peter Odemwingie as well as loan signing Roman Lukaku. Both Long and Lukaku use their physical presence and work rate to unsettle defences and if Lukaku plays he will surely want to show Chelsea they should have given him more of a chance. Odemwingie is a personal favourite player with an unpredictability that sees him almost unplayable when on form. The midfield is again solid with free transfer Claudio Jacob again showing that Clarke is also a keen judge of a player.
Chelsea have come off the rails slightly of late with no impressive performances in their last three matches in all competitions. Firstly they were beaten 3-2 late on in the tempestuous match against Man United, then they only beat Shakhtar Donetsk late on at home in the Champions League before drawing at home last week with a poor Liverpool side. They also managed to lose captain John Terry in the Liverpool match which will hurt them. Whilst he may have his faults as a person and a player, he is undeniably the glue that holds the side together. The rest of the centre backs like David Luiz and Gary Cahill all have their plus points, but all of them look better next to Terry with his organisational skills. The new Chelsea's strength is their three forwards Juan Mata, Oscar and Eden Hazard. When any two of these three are on form they will create chances. The other issue they have though is that Fernando Torres still does not convert enough of these and looks very unlikely to ever rediscover the player that was possibly the league's best when at Liverpool. Chelsea look short in a tough away match.
Lay Chelsea at 1.98 on Betfair. 2 points.
Deportivo v Levante, Sunday 1100
Last weekends punt was definitely laying Real Madrid away at Levante, and we almost got it up. In a match played in awful conditions Levante again made it difficult for the opposition with constant running and no little physical efforts either. The Valencian's are not pretty or tricksy by a long chalk, but they are a reliable team in a league full of inconsistency. You can almost be certain they will be tough to beat and anyone who does beat them will have earned it, as giants Real found out.
Deportivo returned to the Primera over the summer, but sadly the financial issues brought on over a decade ago still plague the club. In a division where crippling debt is the norm this is no huge disadvantage, but they have not signed well with what little they have and look likely to head back to the Segunda. They have scored plenty of goals in the odd match, but they are also very capable of shipping them too. Before last weekend the problem seemed to be that they could not motivate themselves sufficiently against the smaller sides and were not picking up points in matches they would have targeted to. This will not aid them against Levnate and I think they're way too short at almost even money.
Lay Deportivo La Coruna at 2.05 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Napoli v AC Milan, Saturday 1945
The team that benefitted most from Serie A's drop off in quality amongst the traditional giants has definitely been Napoli. The Southern side have always been one of the best supported sides in the country but have had to start from way down the pyramid after some huge financial difficulties. Now they are back in Serie A they have steadily built a side that now always looks likely to be in the Champions League positions. An awful lot of credit for this should go to manager Walter Mazzari who has a knack of picking up South American's for bargain prices and getting the best out of his squad. They currently still have Edinson Cavani as the focal point of the attack ably supported by Marik Hamsik and Goran Pandev. These three possess pace, flair, power and are all willing to work hard and make a threatening trio for any side to face. They had a small stumble in not winning in two matches, but set that right with a fantastic 4-2 away win against Genoa last weekend.
AC Milan look likely to continue their fall from grace after selling or releasing all their best players over the summer. Clearly the biggest losses to the side were the defender Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic both of whom were sold to newly rich Paris St Germain. Throw in the releases of senior players like Clarence Seedorf, Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo last season and you have a side stripped of it's spine. The likes of Kevin Prince Boateng and youngster Stephen El Sharaawy are now the men being relied upon to pull the team through and they're nowhere near the level of their predecessors. El haraawy has been the star man this season with his direct running and goals possibly the only bright spark for fans with Boateng not doing much at all. I can't see them getting anything from their long trip.
Back Napoli at 1.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Freiburg, Saturday 1430
Hannover have featured a few times in the column this season and last due to their position as a regular European team now. Whilst other sides constantly chop and change players and managers in the search for a magic formula that reaps instant success, they have stuck with largely the same names and progressed. Since the manager Mirko Slomka was appointed in late 2009 they have gradually grown into a side capable of beating anyone in the Bundesliga. They are particularly good at home with a record of won three, drawn two and only lost one at home this season so far. They have conceded more than in previous seasons, but have added an attacking threat that negates this. They are in fact the second highest scorers behind Bayern Munich. The two African forwards Didier Ya Konan and Mame Bame Diouf have both looked threatening and after a rough few matches in October they are now two wins on the bounce.
Freiburg have established themselves as a regular fixture in the top flight, but are unlikely to make a push for European qualification. First up for them is always to avoid relegation places and they currently sit in mid-table, where I would expect to see them at seasons end. Away from home they try to shut up shop and this can be seen in only conceding five goals in five away matches, but only scoring four in the same games has seen them only getting a sole win. They will be fully tested by Hannover's attack in this one and I don't expect them to repel them forever.
Back Hannover at 2.05 with Stan James.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Stuttgart, Saturday 1430
Last season I followed Monchengladbach often due to their ability to keep it tight at the back and rely upon Marco Reus to open up opposition defences. This served me well, but this season with Reus gone their tactics have had to change. Having been the 1-0 kings it is something of a shock to see them involved in matches with scorelines of 5-0, 2-4 and 3-2 already this season. It seems that they are tryign to make up for Reus's departure by involving more players in the forward positions, but naturally this leaves them with less bodies in defence. The last three matches have see two wins sandwiching a draw with Freiburg and see them possibly settling into some sort of system. That system does seem to have room for plenty of goals though.
Stuttgart got off to a terrible start to the season, but have looked better of late. They had won three out of five in an unbeaten run before losing 4-2 at home to a good Hannover side last weekend. This has seen them pulling clear of the relegation spots to a more comfortable mid-table position and I would expect them to steadily climb the table and again make a push for European football. They are playing well enough and scoring goals again so I would think this match has every chance of being a thriller.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.7 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Eskisehirspor v Fenerbahce, Saturday 1700
Another side I keenly followed last season was Eskisehispor due to their ability to defend very well and nick wins. This has been their modus operandi for the past few years with sides built from the back relying on the forwards to have enough about them to turn clean sheets into wins. This season though they have much more of a goal threat which sees them as joint highest scorers at home alongside reigning champions and league leaders Galatasaray. They have fourteen goals in five home matches which has seen them win four and lose one in that time. In fact, the only match they have lost at home was on the opening day when they were caught cold by Akhisar late on to lose 1-0. They are probably the most consistent side besides the big boys and will definitely give any side a tough match.
Fenerbahce have had a mixed start, but have seemingly finally discovered something resembling form. This has mainly been due to them overpowering the smaller sides at home though and should be taken with this in mind. Away from home they have only won one, drawn three and lost one whilst scoring only four goals and conceding five. This would appear to show they value not losing far more than winning whilst they are still trying to establish their best form. This inviting a team on who have scored so many goals at home is definitely enough for me to oppose them at the prices.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.05 Draw No Bet at StanJames. 2 points.
Antalyaspor v Besiktas, Sunday 1700
Antalyaspor are my team to follow in the Super Lig of late. I watched them overpower Fenerbahce in Istanbul three matches ago and come away deserved 3-1 winners and they are now unbeaten in six matches. This run has put them in second position in the league behind Galatasaray and they thoroughly deserve it. They are well drilled in defence and are thrilling on the counter attack with striker Lamine Diarra in the form of his life they always pose a threat. Diarra is strong enough to hold the ball up and let others join or capable of rolling his man and getting a shot off as he showed twice against Fener. Whilst they drew 1-1 last weekend they should be refreshed after the international break for this one and back to their best.
Besiktas are as inconsistent as ever, and they seem to enjoy making a fool of me when I oppose them. The midfielder Manuel Fernandes seems to be the only one of their big names that puts in consistently excellent performances with the rest picking and choosing their moments. This has seen them sitting in eight position in the table and they will need to somehow settle into a run to progress any higher up. They are unbeaten in their last four matches, but have been conceding goals whilst doing this and now come up against a side who have been on the very top of their game. Generally the physical stuff intimidates Besiktas players and Antalya will be looking to impose themselves.
Back Antalyaspor at 2.35 with SportingBet. 2 points.
Week Thirteen
Everton v Sunderland - Win 1.59 points.
Chelsea v Liverpool - Lose 2.5 points.
Espanyol v Osasuna - Lose 1.5 points.
Levante v Real Madrid - Lose 1 point.
Atalanta v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg - Win 1.6 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Antalyaspor - Void.
Totals - Lose 6.8 points.
Running Total - Down 3.49 points.
Musical accompaniment this week from The Ramones with Beat On The Brat.
QPR v Southampton, Saturday 1500
It's a funny week in the Premier League for me this week as I think you could honestly make a case for all the favourites being a bit short priced. Obviously though some are more than others and this one screams out at me. I actually went to watch QPR play Reading in the League Cup when they somehow threw away a lead twice and lost 3-2 at home. They looked as dreadful that night as the write ups on their performances would have you believe. I'm no fan of Mark Hughes as a manager to begin with, he did a creditable job with Wales and Blackburn although I don't think they justify his opinion of himself. He has spent a considerable amount of money bringing some big names to Loftus Road and has yet to find a way to get a performance out of them that deserves a win. The defence is a huge issue, they look thoroughly disorganised and every side will get chances against them at some stage. Julio Cesar was brought in as a big name goalkeeper, but I think he's at least two seasons past his peak and is not giving any confidence to those in front of him. In attack Junior Hoilett and Djibril Cisse will always cause a side problems with their direct running and pace, but neither player is looking confident in front of goal so as well as shipping too many they are not scoring enough either.
Southampton have shot through the divisions under manager Nigel Adkins and have looked unsurprisingly shaky this term so far. They do look a lot more threatening in front of goal than their opponents, but possibly have the worst defence in the entire division. They have conceded twenty nine goals already in just eleven matches, nine more than their nearest challengers, and when you look at the personnel it is no real shock. Kelvin Davis is a reliable goalkeeper below the top division but has previously shown he is not up to it in the Premier League. The full backs Nathaniel Clyne and Maya Yoshida are actually good going forward, but are both poor positionally when defending and leave the team exposed. Jose Fonte and Jos Hooiveld in the centre of defence are simply not top level players. Their best chance would appear to be attacking and this is what they do. Morgan Schneiderlin, Steven Davis, Adam Lallana and Gaston Ramirez are all attack minded midfielders and they support Jay Rodriguez and Rickie Lambert who are both capable of causing problems. QPR look short priced for a side there to be attacked and having trouble scoring.
Lay QPR at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
West Brom v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
The other match that looks the standout lay to me is Chelsea away at the seasons over-achievers West Brom. Since appointing ex-coach of both Chelsea and Liverpool, Steve Clarke, as manager West Brom have performed exceptionally well. Clarke was renowned for his work with defences at both the aforementioned clubs so it is no surprise to see the Baggies are tactically set up well at the back and keep chances given at a minimum. Perhaps the surprise has been that Clarke has got the best out of forwards Shane Long and Peter Odemwingie as well as loan signing Roman Lukaku. Both Long and Lukaku use their physical presence and work rate to unsettle defences and if Lukaku plays he will surely want to show Chelsea they should have given him more of a chance. Odemwingie is a personal favourite player with an unpredictability that sees him almost unplayable when on form. The midfield is again solid with free transfer Claudio Jacob again showing that Clarke is also a keen judge of a player.
Chelsea have come off the rails slightly of late with no impressive performances in their last three matches in all competitions. Firstly they were beaten 3-2 late on in the tempestuous match against Man United, then they only beat Shakhtar Donetsk late on at home in the Champions League before drawing at home last week with a poor Liverpool side. They also managed to lose captain John Terry in the Liverpool match which will hurt them. Whilst he may have his faults as a person and a player, he is undeniably the glue that holds the side together. The rest of the centre backs like David Luiz and Gary Cahill all have their plus points, but all of them look better next to Terry with his organisational skills. The new Chelsea's strength is their three forwards Juan Mata, Oscar and Eden Hazard. When any two of these three are on form they will create chances. The other issue they have though is that Fernando Torres still does not convert enough of these and looks very unlikely to ever rediscover the player that was possibly the league's best when at Liverpool. Chelsea look short in a tough away match.
Lay Chelsea at 1.98 on Betfair. 2 points.
Deportivo v Levante, Sunday 1100
Last weekends punt was definitely laying Real Madrid away at Levante, and we almost got it up. In a match played in awful conditions Levante again made it difficult for the opposition with constant running and no little physical efforts either. The Valencian's are not pretty or tricksy by a long chalk, but they are a reliable team in a league full of inconsistency. You can almost be certain they will be tough to beat and anyone who does beat them will have earned it, as giants Real found out.
Deportivo returned to the Primera over the summer, but sadly the financial issues brought on over a decade ago still plague the club. In a division where crippling debt is the norm this is no huge disadvantage, but they have not signed well with what little they have and look likely to head back to the Segunda. They have scored plenty of goals in the odd match, but they are also very capable of shipping them too. Before last weekend the problem seemed to be that they could not motivate themselves sufficiently against the smaller sides and were not picking up points in matches they would have targeted to. This will not aid them against Levnate and I think they're way too short at almost even money.
Lay Deportivo La Coruna at 2.05 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Napoli v AC Milan, Saturday 1945
The team that benefitted most from Serie A's drop off in quality amongst the traditional giants has definitely been Napoli. The Southern side have always been one of the best supported sides in the country but have had to start from way down the pyramid after some huge financial difficulties. Now they are back in Serie A they have steadily built a side that now always looks likely to be in the Champions League positions. An awful lot of credit for this should go to manager Walter Mazzari who has a knack of picking up South American's for bargain prices and getting the best out of his squad. They currently still have Edinson Cavani as the focal point of the attack ably supported by Marik Hamsik and Goran Pandev. These three possess pace, flair, power and are all willing to work hard and make a threatening trio for any side to face. They had a small stumble in not winning in two matches, but set that right with a fantastic 4-2 away win against Genoa last weekend.
AC Milan look likely to continue their fall from grace after selling or releasing all their best players over the summer. Clearly the biggest losses to the side were the defender Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic both of whom were sold to newly rich Paris St Germain. Throw in the releases of senior players like Clarence Seedorf, Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo last season and you have a side stripped of it's spine. The likes of Kevin Prince Boateng and youngster Stephen El Sharaawy are now the men being relied upon to pull the team through and they're nowhere near the level of their predecessors. El haraawy has been the star man this season with his direct running and goals possibly the only bright spark for fans with Boateng not doing much at all. I can't see them getting anything from their long trip.
Back Napoli at 1.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Freiburg, Saturday 1430
Hannover have featured a few times in the column this season and last due to their position as a regular European team now. Whilst other sides constantly chop and change players and managers in the search for a magic formula that reaps instant success, they have stuck with largely the same names and progressed. Since the manager Mirko Slomka was appointed in late 2009 they have gradually grown into a side capable of beating anyone in the Bundesliga. They are particularly good at home with a record of won three, drawn two and only lost one at home this season so far. They have conceded more than in previous seasons, but have added an attacking threat that negates this. They are in fact the second highest scorers behind Bayern Munich. The two African forwards Didier Ya Konan and Mame Bame Diouf have both looked threatening and after a rough few matches in October they are now two wins on the bounce.
Freiburg have established themselves as a regular fixture in the top flight, but are unlikely to make a push for European qualification. First up for them is always to avoid relegation places and they currently sit in mid-table, where I would expect to see them at seasons end. Away from home they try to shut up shop and this can be seen in only conceding five goals in five away matches, but only scoring four in the same games has seen them only getting a sole win. They will be fully tested by Hannover's attack in this one and I don't expect them to repel them forever.
Back Hannover at 2.05 with Stan James.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Stuttgart, Saturday 1430
Last season I followed Monchengladbach often due to their ability to keep it tight at the back and rely upon Marco Reus to open up opposition defences. This served me well, but this season with Reus gone their tactics have had to change. Having been the 1-0 kings it is something of a shock to see them involved in matches with scorelines of 5-0, 2-4 and 3-2 already this season. It seems that they are tryign to make up for Reus's departure by involving more players in the forward positions, but naturally this leaves them with less bodies in defence. The last three matches have see two wins sandwiching a draw with Freiburg and see them possibly settling into some sort of system. That system does seem to have room for plenty of goals though.
Stuttgart got off to a terrible start to the season, but have looked better of late. They had won three out of five in an unbeaten run before losing 4-2 at home to a good Hannover side last weekend. This has seen them pulling clear of the relegation spots to a more comfortable mid-table position and I would expect them to steadily climb the table and again make a push for European football. They are playing well enough and scoring goals again so I would think this match has every chance of being a thriller.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.7 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Eskisehirspor v Fenerbahce, Saturday 1700
Another side I keenly followed last season was Eskisehispor due to their ability to defend very well and nick wins. This has been their modus operandi for the past few years with sides built from the back relying on the forwards to have enough about them to turn clean sheets into wins. This season though they have much more of a goal threat which sees them as joint highest scorers at home alongside reigning champions and league leaders Galatasaray. They have fourteen goals in five home matches which has seen them win four and lose one in that time. In fact, the only match they have lost at home was on the opening day when they were caught cold by Akhisar late on to lose 1-0. They are probably the most consistent side besides the big boys and will definitely give any side a tough match.
Fenerbahce have had a mixed start, but have seemingly finally discovered something resembling form. This has mainly been due to them overpowering the smaller sides at home though and should be taken with this in mind. Away from home they have only won one, drawn three and lost one whilst scoring only four goals and conceding five. This would appear to show they value not losing far more than winning whilst they are still trying to establish their best form. This inviting a team on who have scored so many goals at home is definitely enough for me to oppose them at the prices.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.05 Draw No Bet at StanJames. 2 points.
Antalyaspor v Besiktas, Sunday 1700
Antalyaspor are my team to follow in the Super Lig of late. I watched them overpower Fenerbahce in Istanbul three matches ago and come away deserved 3-1 winners and they are now unbeaten in six matches. This run has put them in second position in the league behind Galatasaray and they thoroughly deserve it. They are well drilled in defence and are thrilling on the counter attack with striker Lamine Diarra in the form of his life they always pose a threat. Diarra is strong enough to hold the ball up and let others join or capable of rolling his man and getting a shot off as he showed twice against Fener. Whilst they drew 1-1 last weekend they should be refreshed after the international break for this one and back to their best.
Besiktas are as inconsistent as ever, and they seem to enjoy making a fool of me when I oppose them. The midfielder Manuel Fernandes seems to be the only one of their big names that puts in consistently excellent performances with the rest picking and choosing their moments. This has seen them sitting in eight position in the table and they will need to somehow settle into a run to progress any higher up. They are unbeaten in their last four matches, but have been conceding goals whilst doing this and now come up against a side who have been on the very top of their game. Generally the physical stuff intimidates Besiktas players and Antalya will be looking to impose themselves.
Back Antalyaspor at 2.35 with SportingBet. 2 points.
Thursday, 8 November 2012
Returning To Humanity...
After a very hard weekend in Krakow last week I am back and just about human enough to put this together. Turns out I had a pretty good return from the last round of matches and will be hoping to continue this and once again build our bank back up after the nightmare of a fortnight ago.
Week Twelve
Man Utd v Arsenal - win 2.1 points.
Sunderland v Aston Villa - win 0.95 points.
Granada v Athletic Bilbao - win 0.95 points.
Fiorentina v Cagliari - win 1.63 points.
Hamburg v Bayern Munich - lose 1 point.
Werder Bremen v Mainz 05 - lose 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Elazigspor - lose 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Trabzonspor - win 3.2 points.
Total - up 1.63 points.
Running Total - up 3.31 points.
Music this week from my current favourites Time Again with Movin' On.
Everton v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
There could be an argument to say that so far this season Everton are the most improved side in the division. Last season saw one of their famous early slumps mean that their later form could not push them to challenge for the Champions League places, but this season they went off like a rocket. Whilst they are still well short of having a squad large enough to make a realistic challenge for the title, their starting eleven is a match for anyone in the Premier League. The two players that were the catalyst last season were Nikola Jelavic and the returning Steven Pienaar. They added the creativity and the goals that changed them from functional to a very good side. They have been joined over the summer by Kevin Mirallas and with Tim Cahill leaving Marouane Fellaini has been pushed further forward to become a pivot for the rest of the side. This has made them into quite an attacking force, which allayed to their always formidable defence should see them pushing for a top four position.
Sunderland could well be the most disappointing side in the league so far. I've been saying that I think Martin O'Neill's tactics are massively outdated since his spell at Aston Villa and it looks like the same thing is happening in the north. So far this season they have only had twelve shots on target in total and only Steven Fletcher has scored for them apart from a Demba Ba own goal. The main problem I see with O'Neill's tactics are that he completely sets a side up to defend from kick off and gives his one striker one player capable of unlocking a defence to play with. When this one player is out of form then the goals dry up, as they have so far. Stephen Sessegnon was very good last season, but for whatever reason this time out he looks jaded. This has left Fletcher to create chances for himself or wait for set-plays for chances. It is to his credit he has done so well, but no other player in the current side is playing well at all.
Back Everton at 1.53 with Ladbrokes. 3 points.
Chelsea v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
Arguably the 'big' match in terms of neutral interest this weekend sees Liverpool travelling to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea fell off the top of the Premier League when losing the hotly contested match with Manchester United two weeks ago. Whilst the decisons from that match were without doubt a bit off, Chelsea probably didn't deserve to win either. Alex Ferguson set his side up to attack and therefore go after Chelsea's weakest spot and got that completely right. Fortunately for Chelsea there is no other side in the Premier League with the wealth of attacking options that United have and they should continue to push back for the title. The attacking triumvirate of Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Oscar who play behind Fernando Torres are definitely the best forwards in the division and if they had a better striker than Fernando Torres to play off they would probably blow sides away every week. Expect them to bring this player in in January or next summer.
Liverpool have had their worst start to a league season since 1903 under Brendan Rodgers. The ex-Swansea manager is being given time as it is clear that he is trying to change the style of play at Liverpool with very little investment compared to his predecessors. Unfortunately there are the beginnings of those familiar rumblings of discontent as it is also clear that the current squad is not able to get results in this style. The major issue is the forward players are just not good enough except for Luis Suarez. Suarez himself bears this opinion out most matches with his clear distrust of those around him by trying to do everything himself and shooting on sight whenever a chance presents itself. Sometimes this does come off and he looks a world beater, but all too often he could do with some help. There is a lot of hope being placed in Jonjo Shelvey and Raheem Sterling, and they do look fine prospects, but to throw them into a side fans expect to be challenging for European football is too much too soon for them.
Back Chelsea at 2.0 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Espanyol v Osasuna, Saturday 1700
I'm going to go for two from Spain's Primera Liga this weekend, although the next one up will be something of a long odds punt. This one is between two of the sides currently struggling in the league, although Espanyol seem to be turning their form around. They stand unbeaten in their last four matches and in such a tight division one more win could well see them in mid-table. This is one of the things I dislike about betting on Spanish football that because the big two squeeze so much of the money and best players away from everyone else it becomes a free for all for the rest barring one or two every season. The thing to do seems to be to follow the mini runs of form and try to take advantage.
Osasuna have been terrible so far and only have five points thanks to a win and two draw from five at home. They have relied upon this home form in previous seasons as they have a physical style and are aided by a small and raucous set of fans backing them to aid them getting results. They have lost five from five away and I see no reason this is going to improve this weekend.
Back Espanyol at 1.95 with Coral. 1.5 points.
Levante v Real Madrid, Sunday 2030
This is my aforementioned punt. Levante managed to hover around the Champions League spots all of last season and eventually ended up in the Europa League this season. This is no small achievement for a club who are permanently broke, play in a dilapidated old ground and have plenty of players the wrong side of thirty. However, they have been moulded into a formidable team who are more than capable of getting results. They have four wins and one draw with no losses at their home ground so far.
Real Madrid may not admit it, but I would see them already turning their focus away from the league title they won last year in search of the elusive Champions League trophy they are desperate to win once again. With Barcelona looking all but unbeatable in the league this should be no surprise. They have looked plenty beatable away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two so far and I think they're worth opposing.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.3 on Betfair. 1 point.
Atalanta v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Atalanta have improved considerably in the past couple of seasons and a lot of it is down to home form. This season they go three wins and two losses from five at home to actually have them above AC Milan in the table. The problem they have had that has stopped getting above mid-table has been a lack of goals. For those three wins they have only scored and five goals and have managed to concede seven at home to actually have them in negative goal difference from what is, on paper, a good record. This is because they seem to be capable of beating everyone below them, but really struggle when up against a good side. This is no bad thing for the club, but will see them not looking forward to this fixture at all.
Inter Milan initially seemed to struggle for consistency under their young manager Andrea Stramaccioni, but are now flying. They actually ended Juventus's amazing unbeaten run of league matches last weekend in Turin after going behind. The manager seems completely secure in his own ability and this leads to him making some astute substitutions and tactical changes not brought on by panic when things are not going their way. He has also seemingly managed to restore the confidence of striker Diego Milito who was previously so impressive when Inter won the treble under Jose Mourinho and does have all the necessary attributes of a top level striker. He has now got four in his last three matches. With Inter winning every away match this season I think their price is worth backing here.
Back Inter Milan at 2.25 with StanJames. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg, Friday 1930
Last weekend we were undone by a very late Werder Bremen goal giving them victory over a very good Mainz side. With this in mind I think they are still worth following as I still think they are the best of the rest in the Bundesliga. An awful lot of the credit for this should go to manager Thomas Tuchel. He has a system which has the team pressing from the front and trying to starve the opposition of the ball and force them into mistakes. This works against even the best sides due to the fitness and discipline of the players as well as having a settled team who all rely on each other working just as hard. The additon of striker Adam Szalai has added the dimension of goals too and they now look a side capable of again qualifying for Europe.
Nurnberg have shown signs of improvement lately, although that is compared to wretched early form. They got a win last week, but this was against the equally poor Wolfsburg in a 1-0 home win, it should also be taken into account that Wolfsburg have been poor away for around eighteen months. That still stands as their only win of the season and considering the opposition I would not be keen to be with them until they can put a few good performances together in a row.
Back Mainz 05 at 1.8 with Coral. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Friday 1800
Last season saw the Super Lig ending with Sivasspor looking like they could make a serious push for European football this season, but that has not come to pass. Strangely enough they seem to be struggling for goals after two years of being a seriously attacking side. This seems to have been a tactical decision to start trying to keep goals out and allay that to their previous attacking talent to make a great all round side. Sadly their forwards have been completely off colour and the definitely improved defence has led to lots of draws at home. They have an entirely symetrical home form table at the moment with one win, three draws and one loss with seven goals both for and against. Up against another side who have a tight defence this will be difficult.
As mentioned Eskisehirspor seem to have recovered their defensive solidity this season after a very poor end to last. They are traditonally one of the stronger sides outside of the Istanbul trio and currently sit in third position in the table. Whereas previously they relied upon plenty of tight victories they have been blowing sides away at home so far with fourteen goals for them at home actually being a league leading total. They go one win, two draw and two losses away though with only seven scored and eight conceded. I think this is worth split stakes.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 with William Hill. 1 point.
Kasimpasa v Antalyaspor, Saturday 1400
Both these sides would not have been expected to be doing as well as they are in the Super Lig so far. Kasimpasa were only promoted over the summer, but started off fantastically well to find themselves sitting in fifth. A lot of this is down to the signing of players with previous top division experience and some very good home form. They go three wins, one draw and one loss at home so far with ten goals for and six against. They have appeared in the last month to possibly be falling into form more befitting the squad they have though with only a solitary win in the last four matches. Although that was last week they appear to be scratching around for improvement and are up against the current best side in the league here.
Antalyaspor came up for us last weekend by beating one of the leagues big boys Trabzonspor by two goals to one. This followed the hugely impressive 3-1 away victory over giants Fenerbahce to see Antalya sitting in second position and within striking distance of Galatasaray should they slip up. This huge improvement seems to have come from a switch to a very counter attacking approach and the form of striker Lamine Diarra. The big striker has the strength to take the ball on a quick break and beat his man before getting a quick shot off, as Fener discovered twice in quick succession. They even came from behind last week against a Trabzon side who are very hard to score against to underline the confidence currently flowing through the side.
Back Antalyaspor Draw No Bet at 2.05 with William Hill. 2 points.
Week Twelve
Man Utd v Arsenal - win 2.1 points.
Sunderland v Aston Villa - win 0.95 points.
Granada v Athletic Bilbao - win 0.95 points.
Fiorentina v Cagliari - win 1.63 points.
Hamburg v Bayern Munich - lose 1 point.
Werder Bremen v Mainz 05 - lose 3 points.
Genclerbirligi v Elazigspor - lose 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Trabzonspor - win 3.2 points.
Total - up 1.63 points.
Running Total - up 3.31 points.
Music this week from my current favourites Time Again with Movin' On.
Everton v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
There could be an argument to say that so far this season Everton are the most improved side in the division. Last season saw one of their famous early slumps mean that their later form could not push them to challenge for the Champions League places, but this season they went off like a rocket. Whilst they are still well short of having a squad large enough to make a realistic challenge for the title, their starting eleven is a match for anyone in the Premier League. The two players that were the catalyst last season were Nikola Jelavic and the returning Steven Pienaar. They added the creativity and the goals that changed them from functional to a very good side. They have been joined over the summer by Kevin Mirallas and with Tim Cahill leaving Marouane Fellaini has been pushed further forward to become a pivot for the rest of the side. This has made them into quite an attacking force, which allayed to their always formidable defence should see them pushing for a top four position.
Sunderland could well be the most disappointing side in the league so far. I've been saying that I think Martin O'Neill's tactics are massively outdated since his spell at Aston Villa and it looks like the same thing is happening in the north. So far this season they have only had twelve shots on target in total and only Steven Fletcher has scored for them apart from a Demba Ba own goal. The main problem I see with O'Neill's tactics are that he completely sets a side up to defend from kick off and gives his one striker one player capable of unlocking a defence to play with. When this one player is out of form then the goals dry up, as they have so far. Stephen Sessegnon was very good last season, but for whatever reason this time out he looks jaded. This has left Fletcher to create chances for himself or wait for set-plays for chances. It is to his credit he has done so well, but no other player in the current side is playing well at all.
Back Everton at 1.53 with Ladbrokes. 3 points.
Chelsea v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
Arguably the 'big' match in terms of neutral interest this weekend sees Liverpool travelling to Stamford Bridge. Chelsea fell off the top of the Premier League when losing the hotly contested match with Manchester United two weeks ago. Whilst the decisons from that match were without doubt a bit off, Chelsea probably didn't deserve to win either. Alex Ferguson set his side up to attack and therefore go after Chelsea's weakest spot and got that completely right. Fortunately for Chelsea there is no other side in the Premier League with the wealth of attacking options that United have and they should continue to push back for the title. The attacking triumvirate of Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Oscar who play behind Fernando Torres are definitely the best forwards in the division and if they had a better striker than Fernando Torres to play off they would probably blow sides away every week. Expect them to bring this player in in January or next summer.
Liverpool have had their worst start to a league season since 1903 under Brendan Rodgers. The ex-Swansea manager is being given time as it is clear that he is trying to change the style of play at Liverpool with very little investment compared to his predecessors. Unfortunately there are the beginnings of those familiar rumblings of discontent as it is also clear that the current squad is not able to get results in this style. The major issue is the forward players are just not good enough except for Luis Suarez. Suarez himself bears this opinion out most matches with his clear distrust of those around him by trying to do everything himself and shooting on sight whenever a chance presents itself. Sometimes this does come off and he looks a world beater, but all too often he could do with some help. There is a lot of hope being placed in Jonjo Shelvey and Raheem Sterling, and they do look fine prospects, but to throw them into a side fans expect to be challenging for European football is too much too soon for them.
Back Chelsea at 2.0 with BetVictor. 2.5 points.
Espanyol v Osasuna, Saturday 1700
I'm going to go for two from Spain's Primera Liga this weekend, although the next one up will be something of a long odds punt. This one is between two of the sides currently struggling in the league, although Espanyol seem to be turning their form around. They stand unbeaten in their last four matches and in such a tight division one more win could well see them in mid-table. This is one of the things I dislike about betting on Spanish football that because the big two squeeze so much of the money and best players away from everyone else it becomes a free for all for the rest barring one or two every season. The thing to do seems to be to follow the mini runs of form and try to take advantage.
Osasuna have been terrible so far and only have five points thanks to a win and two draw from five at home. They have relied upon this home form in previous seasons as they have a physical style and are aided by a small and raucous set of fans backing them to aid them getting results. They have lost five from five away and I see no reason this is going to improve this weekend.
Back Espanyol at 1.95 with Coral. 1.5 points.
Levante v Real Madrid, Sunday 2030
This is my aforementioned punt. Levante managed to hover around the Champions League spots all of last season and eventually ended up in the Europa League this season. This is no small achievement for a club who are permanently broke, play in a dilapidated old ground and have plenty of players the wrong side of thirty. However, they have been moulded into a formidable team who are more than capable of getting results. They have four wins and one draw with no losses at their home ground so far.
Real Madrid may not admit it, but I would see them already turning their focus away from the league title they won last year in search of the elusive Champions League trophy they are desperate to win once again. With Barcelona looking all but unbeatable in the league this should be no surprise. They have looked plenty beatable away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two so far and I think they're worth opposing.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.3 on Betfair. 1 point.
Atalanta v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Atalanta have improved considerably in the past couple of seasons and a lot of it is down to home form. This season they go three wins and two losses from five at home to actually have them above AC Milan in the table. The problem they have had that has stopped getting above mid-table has been a lack of goals. For those three wins they have only scored and five goals and have managed to concede seven at home to actually have them in negative goal difference from what is, on paper, a good record. This is because they seem to be capable of beating everyone below them, but really struggle when up against a good side. This is no bad thing for the club, but will see them not looking forward to this fixture at all.
Inter Milan initially seemed to struggle for consistency under their young manager Andrea Stramaccioni, but are now flying. They actually ended Juventus's amazing unbeaten run of league matches last weekend in Turin after going behind. The manager seems completely secure in his own ability and this leads to him making some astute substitutions and tactical changes not brought on by panic when things are not going their way. He has also seemingly managed to restore the confidence of striker Diego Milito who was previously so impressive when Inter won the treble under Jose Mourinho and does have all the necessary attributes of a top level striker. He has now got four in his last three matches. With Inter winning every away match this season I think their price is worth backing here.
Back Inter Milan at 2.25 with StanJames. 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg, Friday 1930
Last weekend we were undone by a very late Werder Bremen goal giving them victory over a very good Mainz side. With this in mind I think they are still worth following as I still think they are the best of the rest in the Bundesliga. An awful lot of the credit for this should go to manager Thomas Tuchel. He has a system which has the team pressing from the front and trying to starve the opposition of the ball and force them into mistakes. This works against even the best sides due to the fitness and discipline of the players as well as having a settled team who all rely on each other working just as hard. The additon of striker Adam Szalai has added the dimension of goals too and they now look a side capable of again qualifying for Europe.
Nurnberg have shown signs of improvement lately, although that is compared to wretched early form. They got a win last week, but this was against the equally poor Wolfsburg in a 1-0 home win, it should also be taken into account that Wolfsburg have been poor away for around eighteen months. That still stands as their only win of the season and considering the opposition I would not be keen to be with them until they can put a few good performances together in a row.
Back Mainz 05 at 1.8 with Coral. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Friday 1800
Last season saw the Super Lig ending with Sivasspor looking like they could make a serious push for European football this season, but that has not come to pass. Strangely enough they seem to be struggling for goals after two years of being a seriously attacking side. This seems to have been a tactical decision to start trying to keep goals out and allay that to their previous attacking talent to make a great all round side. Sadly their forwards have been completely off colour and the definitely improved defence has led to lots of draws at home. They have an entirely symetrical home form table at the moment with one win, three draws and one loss with seven goals both for and against. Up against another side who have a tight defence this will be difficult.
As mentioned Eskisehirspor seem to have recovered their defensive solidity this season after a very poor end to last. They are traditonally one of the stronger sides outside of the Istanbul trio and currently sit in third position in the table. Whereas previously they relied upon plenty of tight victories they have been blowing sides away at home so far with fourteen goals for them at home actually being a league leading total. They go one win, two draw and two losses away though with only seven scored and eight conceded. I think this is worth split stakes.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 with William Hill. 1 point.
Kasimpasa v Antalyaspor, Saturday 1400
Both these sides would not have been expected to be doing as well as they are in the Super Lig so far. Kasimpasa were only promoted over the summer, but started off fantastically well to find themselves sitting in fifth. A lot of this is down to the signing of players with previous top division experience and some very good home form. They go three wins, one draw and one loss at home so far with ten goals for and six against. They have appeared in the last month to possibly be falling into form more befitting the squad they have though with only a solitary win in the last four matches. Although that was last week they appear to be scratching around for improvement and are up against the current best side in the league here.
Antalyaspor came up for us last weekend by beating one of the leagues big boys Trabzonspor by two goals to one. This followed the hugely impressive 3-1 away victory over giants Fenerbahce to see Antalya sitting in second position and within striking distance of Galatasaray should they slip up. This huge improvement seems to have come from a switch to a very counter attacking approach and the form of striker Lamine Diarra. The big striker has the strength to take the ball on a quick break and beat his man before getting a quick shot off, as Fener discovered twice in quick succession. They even came from behind last week against a Trabzon side who are very hard to score against to underline the confidence currently flowing through the side.
Back Antalyaspor Draw No Bet at 2.05 with William Hill. 2 points.
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