My sincerest apologies for the non-appearance of my column last week, due to a computer crash it was lost at 90% completion and I did not have the time available to redo it. I did put all my tips out on Twitter for those following @TopTopTips, and it was another profitable weekend so it's well worth getting on there.
Week 22
Swansea v Stoke - Win 2.2 points.
West Ham v QPR - Win 1.92 points.
Granada v Rayo Vallecano - Lose 2 points.
Roma v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Schalke v Hannover - Lose 1.5 points.
Besiktas v Istanbul BB - Win 2.1 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor - Win 1.67 points.
Totals - Win 2.39 points.
Week 23 (Twitter only)
Reading v Sheff Utd - Win 1.4 points.
Hannover v Wolfsburg - Win 2.6 points.
Hamburg v Werder Bremen - Win 2.7 points.
Catania v Fiorentina - Win 1.6 points.
Gaziantepspor v Fenerbahce - Lose 2 points.
Galatasaray v Besiktas - Win 1.8 points.
Totals - Win 8.1 points.
Running Total - Up 38.14 points.
Music this week from Austin Lucas with Shoulders, bit of folky stuff of an afternoon!
Newcastle v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
As the transfer windows end approaches by far the busiest club have been Alan Pardew's Newcastle United. The Magpies have been poor for most of the first half of the season with various possible reasons combining to see them drop well off last seasons fifth place finish. My reading of the situation is that they managed to keep a settled first eleven playing nearly every week and managed to get every player to put in a bit more than there average efforts and credit should go to Pardew for that. However comma this time out injuries have robbed them of nigh on every player at one point or another and they have looked miles worse a team without everyone fit. The buck must stop with the manager for this really as there are enough players there to do better than they have. It looks like the board still retained faith in Pardew and his chief scout Graham Carr though, as they have once again raided France to give a crucial injection of bodies, and hopefully quality. I think they have bought exceptionally well. For around £15million all in they have got five very good players. Both Moussa Sissoko and Yoann Goufran have been linked with big money moves and have been in the national side and are still under twenty six. Sissoko in particular always looked an excellent player to me and excelled on his debut against Aston Villa. It looks to me like they have more than enough to pull well clear of the bottom.
Chelsea's season is in danger of being all over soon. They have been knocked out of the League Cup, held to a draw by Brentford in the FA Cup and also failed to beat Southampton and Reading in the Premier League lately. There now looks to be absolutely no chance of Rafa Benitez staying on as manager beyond the seasons end and rightly so. There are huge issues to solve at the club and he doesn't seem to be getting anywhere at all. That he is still persisting with Fernando Torres up front when he has Demba Ba itching to get on the pitch is baffling. The defence seems to give up at points in matches and the midfield offers them little help or protection either, a tactical slight on the usually defensive minded Benitez. With Newcastle's buoyed state I'd not fancy Chelsea here at odds on.
Lay Chelsea at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
Wigan v Southampton, Saturday 1500
Those of you who have been readers of the column for a while will know I avoid Wigan the majority of the time when betting. It doesn't matter how badly they seem to be playing, they always seem to get a result that robs me of my hard earned cash! Every so often though the odds seem so far out they have to be played. This appears to be one of those occasions. When you look at the stats it seems to show Wigan are 'playing the right way', coming out on top of possession amongst other things in most matches. But, they are near to the bottom of the table again as they just don't win matches. A huge part of this is that they don't score enough goals. They currently have twenty seven in twenty four matches, which is not many by the divisions standard. They're a poor side in my opinion and do not justify the odds this week at all.
Southampton started the season like a side that looked doomed to return to The Championship after a solitary season. They have since turned things round to the extent I don't think they'll have any trouble steering clear of trouble come seasons end. The sacking of manager Nigel Adkins seemed harsh, but for all the media coverage of his poor end to his Espanyol managerial post, he was fighting against a host of problems, not least their massive debts. In his first two games it has appeared apparent the players are happy to put in the required effort for his pressing tactics, which I read as a sign they're not too upset at his appointment at all. I think they're a good side with weaknesses in defence. Against a poor attacking side like Wigan they should cope.
Lay Wigan at 2.24 on Betfair. 2 points.
Osasuna v Celta Vigo, Saturday 1500
There does not appear to be much value in Spain this weekend sadly. This looks the best bet to me, although I'm not sure there's much in the price either. It's more a case of looking at respective form of the two sides and betting accordingly. Osasuna are a physical side who have traditionally been excellent at home. They started this season really badly, but have since improved a lot to climb off the bottom of the table since December. This good run has even included a win against Real Madrid at home. As poor as Real have been away, that's no poor effort.
Celta Vigo have the worst away points total in La Liga with just four points. They have one win and one draw along with nine defeats, a terrible record. Were this last season Osasuna would be odds on and they look like they're certainly getting back to that form at home so I want to be on their side.
Back Osasuna at 2.1 with William Hill. 2 points.
Nurnberg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430
Nurnberg are not having much of a time of it in the Bundesliga this season and sit just above the relegation places at present. In the highest scoring of the major European leagues their goals for column showing just eighteen from nineteen matches stands out as the biggest problem they are facing. They actually don't let that many in either, but this is translating into loads of draws which are not getting them enough points to pull anywhere clear of the relegation zone. At home this season their record reads won three, drawn four and lost two. They are not easy to beat, but they are not hard to contain either.
Monchengladbach were a favourite side of mine last season when their mean defence and attack (read Marco Reus mostly!) guided them into Europa League qualification. They sold Reus over the summer to Borussia Dortmund where he has shown how good he is again and they have had to adjust tactically to compensate. This has meant a move to get goals from more sources and utilise a more attacking formation. The flipside of this is that they are also more open at the back. Their away record is actually pretty good as they have not been so gung-ho and have been happy to pick up draws and search for wins at home. They go won two, drawn six and lost just two on the road so far. Points to a draw for me.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with Coral. 2 points.
Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund, Sunday 1430
Second plays third in this important clash on Sunday afternoon. Leverkusen have been the side who have most benefitted from Dortmund making a real go of the Champions League this season. Since Sami Hyypia was drafted in as manager they have looked a very good side, albeit one with no massive stars or egos. Basically they're a side who play to their strengths and don't rely on any fashionable tactical tweaking. They have two excellent forwards in Stefan Kiesling and Andreas Schurrle who would fit in up front for many larger sides, such is their quality. With the also brilliant Lars Bender in front of the defence sorting things out they are well covered. They're a side built to play regularly well, a dream for punters really.
After all I have said about Leverkusen's brilliance, they can't match up to the quality of either Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund on their day. Munich have stormed away with the league's top spot with Dortmund focussing on European football more, but Dortmund tradtionally come on strong after the winter break and look likely to again this season. They opened up with a stunning 5-0 victory over Werder Bremen and followed that with an easy 3-0 win over Nurnberg last weekend. With the Champions League a little way off and everyone fit and firing currently I wouldn't want to be against them.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 2.2 with William Hill. 2 points.
Besiktas v Karabukspor, Friday 1800
In the Turkish Super Lig it looked likely that the only side with a hope of stopping the Galatasaray juggernaut was city rivals Besiktas. Last weekend the two sides met in the aftermath of Gala signing both Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba for a full on assault on the Champions League too, needing a win to apply some pressure. Sadly, even after Gala went down to ten men, Besik could not come back and lost 2-1 to leave themselves five points behind. This shouldn't be a huge problem, but there is no flakier side than Besik. They have now not won since the winter break and are all but out of the title race. Not a good place mentally for a fragile team.
Karabukspor have been the latest side in Turkey to adopt a policy of going all out for three points away from home, and it has propelled them to mid-table safety so far. Their away record of won five and lost five with no draws shows just how precarious a tactic it is for us to bet on though. They do have a league high record of nineteen goals in away matches too which they share currently with Galatasaray. I think they look a touch too long in odds with this in mind.
Lay Besiktas at 1.65 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Bursaspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
Bursaspor have spent pretty big in the past eighteen months to populate their squad with Turkish players returning from other leagues and foreigners like Scott Carson in the hope they should be of better standard than the local players. The two biggest names in this policy have probably been the aforementioned Carson and Tuncay Sanli, formerly of the Premier League. Both of these have been a let down for the weight their names carried and the no doubt huge pay packets they are on. Carson in particular has been dreadful of late and is a large part of Bursa conceding so many goals. They have been a lot better at home than away with a record of won four, drawn four and lost two. They have also only conceded eight goals in those ten matches, but were well beaten 4-1 at home by a by no means great Istanbul BB side last weekend. They are well out of form.
Galatasaray managed to extend their lead at the summit of the Super Lig last weekend by beating their nearest rivals Besiktas in the Turk Telekom stadium. This was after the euphoria of signing Wesley Sneijder and announcing that the now completed deal for Didier Drogba was in the pipeline. Whilst Sneijder has not been phenomenal since his 2010 heroics for Inter Milan and Holland, he is still far better than anyone else in the league. Similarly Drogba may now be thirty five, but he is still an excellent addition to complement the excellent Burak Yilmaz in attack. I expect Sneijder to dominate against Bursa and lead Gala's continued march to the title.
Back Galatasaray at 2.2 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Thursday, 31 January 2013
Thursday, 17 January 2013
Let The Good Times Roll...
Last weekend again saw us building up the bank for the inevitable cold snap in betting to match the weather outside. I don't mean to keep shouting the negative, but it pays to be aware that you can't win them all. If you could then we'd all have gone pro!
Week 21
Everton v Swansea - Win 3.17 points.
Norwich v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Liverpool - Win 2.7 points.
Osasuna v Real Madrid - Win 1.5 points.
Catania v Roma - Win 2.4 points.
Totals - Win 7.77 points.
Running Totals - Up 27.65 points.
Music this week from Bad Astronaut with Break Your Frame.
Swansea v Stoke, Saturday 1500
Late last night Swansea were eliminated from the FA Cup by a late Jack Wilshere winner for Arsenal. They probably won't be hugely upset though as they have a lead going into the second leg of the League Cup semi final and are riding high in the Premier League too. In my season preview I was slightly sceptical of how Michael Laudrup would cope in England as he had only previously managed in Spain of the major leagues. However comma he has been going extremely well and looks like a possible manager of the year candidate if he does win a cup. He has been well used to working within a tight budget in Spain and it is this that is perhaps serving him well, as well as his signings from La Liga. Brendan Rodgers had a very well functioning side, but it did somewhat lack in flair or a plan B. Laudrup has added some very good players to the attack from Spain such as Michu, Jonatan De Guzman and Pablo Hernandez. Whilst the latter two have not been as obviously brilliant as Michu, they contribute by showing their technical ability and tricks when required. I still think the bookies occasionally under-value the Welsh side.
Stoke started the season poorly and have still not cured their long term malaise away from the Brittania. Tony Pulis is fortunate in that the fans of the side seem perfectly content to revel in their physical approach and, to his credit, they look unlikely to go down under his stewardship. They still offer very little in terms of passing or flair and rely upon battling qualities to grind out wins. This is majorly aided when they're at home by the backing they receive and it certainly seems to make referees less inclined to dish cards out for their rough stuff. This also means that they have to tone it down somewhat away due to the higher risk of losing players to sending offs. This should give Swansea plenty of chances to overcome them.
Back Swansea at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.
West Ham v QPR, Saturday 1500
The Hammers have not been outclassed at all really upon their return to the Premier League under Sam Allardyce. I still feel there will come a time not too long in the future when the fans turn against his style of play, but they currently seem sensible enough to realise what a decent job he is doing. With this being said they are in a slightly poor run of late. This has seen them only winning one match since the 3-1 win over Chelsea that made people sit up and take notice of the season they're having. In this poor run they have also lost two of their three home matches, to Everton and Liverpool, and beaten a Norwich side who are beginning to look a little tired. The problem seems to be the forwards for me. Andy Carroll has not found his shooting boots, Carlton Cole also, and this puts real pressure on everyone else. The midfield are working their socks off and I have even seen mentions of an England call for captain Mark Noble, but this won't win them games. They look a little short for a side who are struggling for goals.
The rise of QPR under Harry Redknapp appears to be beginning. Had he been forced to simply persist with the horrendous squad he inherited from Mark Hughes they may well be doomed, but the additions he has made, or is making, look of sufficient quality to make avoiding relegation a possibility. This week has seen QPR sign Loic Remy from Marseille and the signing of Yann M'Vila from Rennes also looks likely, possibly in time for this match. Whilst both of these players have had their issues, or else their sights would be higher than QPR, there is definitely quality in them both. Both were French internationals not long ago and both also have very good physical qualities that should see them settle in quickly in England. The fact that Rangers had already begun to pick up their performances gives me enough confidence to be on their side at these odds.
Lay West Ham at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Granada v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 1500
With this one we're taking something of a punt on Rayo's hit and miss away form, but I think it's worth doing. Granada are hovering around the bottom of the table and have a truly dire home record. So far they have only won one match at their own ground with four draws and four losses too. This has in fact left the level on points with Mallorca who are the last side in the current relegation zone. Granada are another club, along with Watford, that the Italian side Udinese have invested in with a view to bringing numerous players into Europe and getting them playing time before either heading to Udine themselves or being sold on at a profit. Watford are beginning to benefit from the approach in the second tier in England, but it would appear that the top league in Spain is a bridge too far for Granada at times. Seven goals in nine home matches tells you where the problems lie.
Rayo Vallecano have kicked on again this season. They have been a side on the up and up ever since promotion to the top flight and have generally used an attacking approach to do it. This has again been true this season. They do leave themselves very open to being picked off if not everyone is on top of their games, but this risky approach has seen them up to sixth in the league so far. They have only drawn a solitary match all season and that was at home. Away from Vallecas they go won four and lost five of nine, with thirteen scored and a whopping twenty one conceded. The gamble is that with Granada offering little attacking threat Rayo will be able to outgun them.
Lay Granada at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Roma v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Last weekends laying of Roma was a good choice with the capital side again struggling away from home. The return of the previously successful manager Zdenek Zeman was meant to usher back success and with it plenty of the excitement his sides are famed for. As these things often do though, it has not gone according to plan. Zeman's magic touch appears a little outdated now with sides much less likely to give up spaces to exploit as easily and possession the name of the game. There will still be matches where it all clicks and they absolutely bombard sides until they fold, but I think he'll be lucky to last past the summer in the managerial position. He has also again exposed his prickly character in leaving Daniele De Rossi out of the side when they could really do with his application, experience and leadership. They have been far better at home with five wins, two draws and two losses, but they do run themselves close at times.
Inter Milan looked the most likely challengers to Juventus at the start of December, but some mixed results saw them drop back to fourth and possibly out of it. That Juventus have dropped points in their last two matches should give them hope that a good run of results could push them back into contention though, however unlikely. Inter are yet another side with an incredibly patchy away record. They go four wins and six losses from ten, in fact they haven't won away since early November when they broke Juventus's incredible unbeaten run. They really haven't found those heights since and it is possible the unrest surrounding the popular Wesley Sneijder has transferred to the rest of the side. Diego Milito looks less of a player in his absence and without his goals they will always struggle.
Back Roma at 2.1 with Ladbrokes. 1.5 points.
Schalke v Hannover 96, Friday 1930
This is the only match that stands out to me in the Bundesliga this weekend. It is also the first match for many sides after the winter break and I'd be keen to see a few of them in action before committing my money. That being said, Schalke earnt us plenty of money by laying them before the break and this still appears to be the case in this match. They clearly have some good players in the ranks, but it seems the fact they are in the Champions League has seen them priced very short by English bookmakers for a side that was performing so badly they sacked their manager before Xmas.
Hannover are a much more reliable side. They always put the effort in, although this season has seen them not getting the rewards away from home. This sees them well down the table from their usual position around the Europa League spots, but they should be looking to put this right. They have struggled for goals away from home so far with only thirteen scored compared to twenty in the same amount of home matches. It's a punt, but they're good enough to upset the odds I think.
Lay Schalke at 1.72 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Besiktas v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1700
Another league that returns this weekend is the Turkish Super Lig. Similarly to Germany, I'm not keen to commit loads of money to bets until I've had a week or two to see how well prepared the returning sides are. Besiktas can usually be relied upon to have plenty of goals in their matches and as ever this is the case. They have had more goals in their matches than any other side in the Super Lig so far. They also sit second in the table thanks to getting themselves together in a way that has seemed beyond them for years. The re-signing of Manuel Fernandes was a master stroke. The Portugese would fit in in any league in Europe in my opinion and is capable of running games in Turkey.
Istanbul BB had been riding high for a couple of seasons, but have fallen back this term. They were one of the first sides to attempt the attack when away approach a few are now going with and to an extent it is working. They have a record of won four and lost five with eleven scored and ten conceded. This may not be huge numbers, but in Turkey it's plenty good enough to rely on them getting a goal. I can see goals in this one, possibly plenty of them.
Back Over 3.0 Goals at 2.05 with Bet365. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Sunday 1400
I think Trabzonspor are a bit short for this match. Their home record of four wins, three draws and two losses is not bad, but only scoring nine goals in nine matches in not good enough. The sale of Burak Yilmaz robbed them of over 50% of their goals in the previous two seasons so they need to find a way of replacing those goals. It looks increasingly like only signing a new striker can get them back up the table.
Karabukspor seem to be the latest side in Turkey to take on the score more than you approach away from home. This has seen them comfortably in mid-table and only one place behind their more illustrious opponents Trabzon. They have won four and lost five of nine matches away from home, but the real shock is their goals record. They have scored an enormous sixteen and conceded nineteen in those matches. Turkey is not a high scoring country so this is unheard of. I'm backing Trabzon not having enough threat to hurt Karabuk and Karabuk to somehow capitalise.
Lay Trabzonspor at 1.9 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Week 21
Everton v Swansea - Win 3.17 points.
Norwich v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Liverpool - Win 2.7 points.
Osasuna v Real Madrid - Win 1.5 points.
Catania v Roma - Win 2.4 points.
Totals - Win 7.77 points.
Running Totals - Up 27.65 points.
Music this week from Bad Astronaut with Break Your Frame.
Swansea v Stoke, Saturday 1500
Late last night Swansea were eliminated from the FA Cup by a late Jack Wilshere winner for Arsenal. They probably won't be hugely upset though as they have a lead going into the second leg of the League Cup semi final and are riding high in the Premier League too. In my season preview I was slightly sceptical of how Michael Laudrup would cope in England as he had only previously managed in Spain of the major leagues. However comma he has been going extremely well and looks like a possible manager of the year candidate if he does win a cup. He has been well used to working within a tight budget in Spain and it is this that is perhaps serving him well, as well as his signings from La Liga. Brendan Rodgers had a very well functioning side, but it did somewhat lack in flair or a plan B. Laudrup has added some very good players to the attack from Spain such as Michu, Jonatan De Guzman and Pablo Hernandez. Whilst the latter two have not been as obviously brilliant as Michu, they contribute by showing their technical ability and tricks when required. I still think the bookies occasionally under-value the Welsh side.
Stoke started the season poorly and have still not cured their long term malaise away from the Brittania. Tony Pulis is fortunate in that the fans of the side seem perfectly content to revel in their physical approach and, to his credit, they look unlikely to go down under his stewardship. They still offer very little in terms of passing or flair and rely upon battling qualities to grind out wins. This is majorly aided when they're at home by the backing they receive and it certainly seems to make referees less inclined to dish cards out for their rough stuff. This also means that they have to tone it down somewhat away due to the higher risk of losing players to sending offs. This should give Swansea plenty of chances to overcome them.
Back Swansea at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.
West Ham v QPR, Saturday 1500
The Hammers have not been outclassed at all really upon their return to the Premier League under Sam Allardyce. I still feel there will come a time not too long in the future when the fans turn against his style of play, but they currently seem sensible enough to realise what a decent job he is doing. With this being said they are in a slightly poor run of late. This has seen them only winning one match since the 3-1 win over Chelsea that made people sit up and take notice of the season they're having. In this poor run they have also lost two of their three home matches, to Everton and Liverpool, and beaten a Norwich side who are beginning to look a little tired. The problem seems to be the forwards for me. Andy Carroll has not found his shooting boots, Carlton Cole also, and this puts real pressure on everyone else. The midfield are working their socks off and I have even seen mentions of an England call for captain Mark Noble, but this won't win them games. They look a little short for a side who are struggling for goals.
The rise of QPR under Harry Redknapp appears to be beginning. Had he been forced to simply persist with the horrendous squad he inherited from Mark Hughes they may well be doomed, but the additions he has made, or is making, look of sufficient quality to make avoiding relegation a possibility. This week has seen QPR sign Loic Remy from Marseille and the signing of Yann M'Vila from Rennes also looks likely, possibly in time for this match. Whilst both of these players have had their issues, or else their sights would be higher than QPR, there is definitely quality in them both. Both were French internationals not long ago and both also have very good physical qualities that should see them settle in quickly in England. The fact that Rangers had already begun to pick up their performances gives me enough confidence to be on their side at these odds.
Lay West Ham at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Granada v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 1500
With this one we're taking something of a punt on Rayo's hit and miss away form, but I think it's worth doing. Granada are hovering around the bottom of the table and have a truly dire home record. So far they have only won one match at their own ground with four draws and four losses too. This has in fact left the level on points with Mallorca who are the last side in the current relegation zone. Granada are another club, along with Watford, that the Italian side Udinese have invested in with a view to bringing numerous players into Europe and getting them playing time before either heading to Udine themselves or being sold on at a profit. Watford are beginning to benefit from the approach in the second tier in England, but it would appear that the top league in Spain is a bridge too far for Granada at times. Seven goals in nine home matches tells you where the problems lie.
Rayo Vallecano have kicked on again this season. They have been a side on the up and up ever since promotion to the top flight and have generally used an attacking approach to do it. This has again been true this season. They do leave themselves very open to being picked off if not everyone is on top of their games, but this risky approach has seen them up to sixth in the league so far. They have only drawn a solitary match all season and that was at home. Away from Vallecas they go won four and lost five of nine, with thirteen scored and a whopping twenty one conceded. The gamble is that with Granada offering little attacking threat Rayo will be able to outgun them.
Lay Granada at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Roma v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Last weekends laying of Roma was a good choice with the capital side again struggling away from home. The return of the previously successful manager Zdenek Zeman was meant to usher back success and with it plenty of the excitement his sides are famed for. As these things often do though, it has not gone according to plan. Zeman's magic touch appears a little outdated now with sides much less likely to give up spaces to exploit as easily and possession the name of the game. There will still be matches where it all clicks and they absolutely bombard sides until they fold, but I think he'll be lucky to last past the summer in the managerial position. He has also again exposed his prickly character in leaving Daniele De Rossi out of the side when they could really do with his application, experience and leadership. They have been far better at home with five wins, two draws and two losses, but they do run themselves close at times.
Inter Milan looked the most likely challengers to Juventus at the start of December, but some mixed results saw them drop back to fourth and possibly out of it. That Juventus have dropped points in their last two matches should give them hope that a good run of results could push them back into contention though, however unlikely. Inter are yet another side with an incredibly patchy away record. They go four wins and six losses from ten, in fact they haven't won away since early November when they broke Juventus's incredible unbeaten run. They really haven't found those heights since and it is possible the unrest surrounding the popular Wesley Sneijder has transferred to the rest of the side. Diego Milito looks less of a player in his absence and without his goals they will always struggle.
Back Roma at 2.1 with Ladbrokes. 1.5 points.
Schalke v Hannover 96, Friday 1930
This is the only match that stands out to me in the Bundesliga this weekend. It is also the first match for many sides after the winter break and I'd be keen to see a few of them in action before committing my money. That being said, Schalke earnt us plenty of money by laying them before the break and this still appears to be the case in this match. They clearly have some good players in the ranks, but it seems the fact they are in the Champions League has seen them priced very short by English bookmakers for a side that was performing so badly they sacked their manager before Xmas.
Hannover are a much more reliable side. They always put the effort in, although this season has seen them not getting the rewards away from home. This sees them well down the table from their usual position around the Europa League spots, but they should be looking to put this right. They have struggled for goals away from home so far with only thirteen scored compared to twenty in the same amount of home matches. It's a punt, but they're good enough to upset the odds I think.
Lay Schalke at 1.72 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Besiktas v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1700
Another league that returns this weekend is the Turkish Super Lig. Similarly to Germany, I'm not keen to commit loads of money to bets until I've had a week or two to see how well prepared the returning sides are. Besiktas can usually be relied upon to have plenty of goals in their matches and as ever this is the case. They have had more goals in their matches than any other side in the Super Lig so far. They also sit second in the table thanks to getting themselves together in a way that has seemed beyond them for years. The re-signing of Manuel Fernandes was a master stroke. The Portugese would fit in in any league in Europe in my opinion and is capable of running games in Turkey.
Istanbul BB had been riding high for a couple of seasons, but have fallen back this term. They were one of the first sides to attempt the attack when away approach a few are now going with and to an extent it is working. They have a record of won four and lost five with eleven scored and ten conceded. This may not be huge numbers, but in Turkey it's plenty good enough to rely on them getting a goal. I can see goals in this one, possibly plenty of them.
Back Over 3.0 Goals at 2.05 with Bet365. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Sunday 1400
I think Trabzonspor are a bit short for this match. Their home record of four wins, three draws and two losses is not bad, but only scoring nine goals in nine matches in not good enough. The sale of Burak Yilmaz robbed them of over 50% of their goals in the previous two seasons so they need to find a way of replacing those goals. It looks increasingly like only signing a new striker can get them back up the table.
Karabukspor seem to be the latest side in Turkey to take on the score more than you approach away from home. This has seen them comfortably in mid-table and only one place behind their more illustrious opponents Trabzon. They have won four and lost five of nine matches away from home, but the real shock is their goals record. They have scored an enormous sixteen and conceded nineteen in those matches. Turkey is not a high scoring country so this is unheard of. I'm backing Trabzon not having enough threat to hurt Karabuk and Karabuk to somehow capitalise.
Lay Trabzonspor at 1.9 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Thursday, 10 January 2013
Starting The Year In The Black...
The first column of the year came in over the weekend with just one bet down so I will endeavour to keep steadily churning profit. The thing to be aware of is that you would have to be incredibly disciplined/knowledgeable/lucky to win all the time and losing is inevitable. I do this column as a bit of fun for myself, although I am serious about the bets, and any money we make is simply a little extra.
Week 20
Crystal Palace v Stoke City - Lose 2 points.
West Ham v Manchester United - Win 2.8 points.
Swansea v Arsenal - Win 2.4 points.
Levante v Athletic Bilbao - Win 3.5 points.
Lazio v Cagliari - Win 1.83 points.
Totals - Win 8.53 points.
Running Total - Up 19.88 points.
Music this week from another old favourite Hot Water Music with Under Everything.
Everton v Swansea, Saturday 1500
The pick of the prices for me on Saturday is Everton looking very short against the ever impressive Swansea. Everton started off the season like a train and were scoring goals from all areas and dominating any side they played physically too. The deployment of the hulking Marouane Fellaini behind the striker was a master stroke by David Moyes. Many sides now seem to be requiring goals less and less from the notional central man in the forward line, Christian Benteke at Aston Villa is another example. Fellaini can very well get goals when given the chance, and is a huge aerial threat, but his main role is to bully defenders and create space for those around him like Nikola Jelavic and Steven Pienaar. The problem in the last month has been that Fellaini has looked tired and the goals have dried up for the rest of the side at the same time. This leaves Everton as a solid side, Moyes will always see to that, but without the threat to justify such short odds in this.
Swansea look to have really settled into the style of play Michael Laudrup wants to see now. There were bound to be issues to be solved when changing from Brendan Rodgers Barcelona-lite style of constant passing to having more threat under Laudrup. To do this he has brought in players he was familiar with from his time in Spain. The most obvious success has been the forward Michu, who is taking up numerous column inches of late as some sort of 'discovery'. The fact is that he had been a journeyman until last year when he was moved forward and contributed 15 goals to a relatively poor Rayo Vallecano side. These things were there for all to see so I don't wuite buy into him being 'unearthed' by Swansea or Laudrup. But, he is having a brilliant season. He is not the tiki taka type and his style of simply looking for a shot at all times might even suit the Premier League better than La Liga. Throw in the likes of Jonatan De Guzman on the wing and the mercurial Pablo Hernandez also on the flanks and there is a lot of quality in this side now.
Lay Everton at 1.63 on Betfair. 2 points.
Norwich City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
A side I have followed since around November has been Norwich City. After the loss of manager Paul Lambert to Aston Villa in the summer the club went and got Chris Hughton from Birmingham City. Hughton had done superbly at both Newcastle and Birmingham in the Championship with restrictions on playing staff and Norwich took a chance on him doing the same in the Premier League. This initially may have looked madness with goals being shipped all over, but once they settled into his system they went on a ten match unbeaten streak to pull them well clear of the relegation spots. They had some mixed results over Xmas, but still look a very good side to me. They carry plenty of attacking threat for a mid-table side and look solid at the back. They are edging towards being short in this, but I'll just side with them at the larger prices out there.
Newcastle United have looked dreadful for most of the season so far. Last seasons push for the Champions League now looks a long way away with the side struggling and having already lose ten matches in the league. The first choice eleven that did so well last season has been torn apart by injuries so far and they don't look the same side when one or more of them is missing. The even bigger worry now is that after selling Demba Ba they may not even replace his guaranteed goals. Papiss Cisse now has those shoes to fill and I think he is a more rounded team player, but it will be up to Alan Pardew to make sure that he works to get wins. If these don't start coming soon then it could get very close to a relegation battle. New signings, that have not arrived yet, are needed.
Back Norwich City at 2.25 with BODOG. 2 points.
Manchester United v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
I have stated many times that I think that Manchester United could be doing a lot better than they are in terms of the performances they are turning in. However comma that being said they seem to be comfortably ticking along to getting the title back from neighbours City. This has largely been down to the performances of their forward players and in particular the summer signing, Robin Van Persie. The Dutch striker may have looked expensive for a player with little sell on value, but he will be a bargain if he continues to fire United to the league title. He also seems to be bringing the best out of Wayne Rooney since his spell with Cristiano Ronaldo, which would suggest to me that he can't do it all alone despite what some journalists in this country believe. With Nemanja Vidic also playing his way back into form and fitness they look a decent price to me.
Liverpool are regular lays for me. The sheer weight of supporters money sees them always going off at odds I would suggest are not representative of their performances or league position. I am also beginning to think that their manager Brendan Rodgers got lucky that all was in place for him at Swansea and his spell at Reading may be more like the 'real' Rodgers. Liverpool seem to still rely far too heavily on Luis Suarez dragging them through matches. This is no real shock as he is miles better than any other player at the club, but I would have liked to see Rodgers do something else to help him out. Presumably the signing of Daniel Sturridge is to help with this, but I don't think this is the game they suddenly burst into a partnership. In fact, I would not be surprised if Sturridge starts on the bench with Rodgers looking to contain. They are miles behind United at the moment and I don't see them stopping United scoring.
Back Manchester United at 1.9 with William Hill. 3 points.
Osasuna v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
Osasuna were a side I followed at home last year due to the awesome record they've had there in recent years. They are possibly the side you would most recognise as playing an 'English' style of physical football, Spain's Stoke if you will. They have a compact ground too with fans who are not there to enjoy flair players, rather they want to see their side bully the opposition off the park. They started this season off very poorly and have not turned it round to the extent that they are still bottom of the table. They have never been high scorers and this has been particularly costly with their defence suddenly conceding many more than in previous seasons. This has been tightened up in the last seven matches though, and they have in fact only conceded seven in nine matches at home so far. Strangely I think they've as much chance in this as any decent side visiting.
Real Madrid have become absolutely mental lately. Jose Mourinho seems to have decided that his best course of action is to get the sack and a massive pay off and is doing his best to drag the club into disrepute. He has never tried to placate the media in either Madrid or wider Spain and is now using this as a tool to turn everyone against him. He has recently dropped Iker Casillas as goalkeeper in what looks like more politics with Casillas and Sergio Ramos widely suspected dissenters. The club have all but given up on the league title and have been pretty dreadful on their travels. They're worth opposing for smallish stakes I think in what should be a tough match.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.49 on Betfair. 1.5 point.
Catania v Roma, Sunday 1400
Catania punched well above their weight last season under the newcomer to management Vincenzo Montella. The former Roma forward has since moved on to doing very well with Fiorentina, but his former club are not doing too badly themselves. A lot of this has been down to their excellent home form. Their record reads won six, drawn two and lost two at home so far with seventeen goals scored and only nine conceded. They may even better last seasons eleventh place finish in Rolando Maran's first season in charge. They returned to action after the winter break with a 0-0 draw with Torino at home which doesn't look great on paper, but they were donw to ten men and Torino are probably better than a thirteenth position in the standings.
Roma decided to scrap the Spanish experiment after just a year in the summer and re-appointed fan favourite Zdenek Zeman as manager from promoted Pescara. In the preceding years between his last spell at the club and his return his style of play has not changed at all, he is all out attack. This can be fantastic in Italy where sides still are unsure of how to contend with such an approach when most sides play a much more measured style. It also means that when the forwards don't fire though his sides can be left very exposed. Nowhere is this more true than away. They have a record of five wins, five losses and not a single draw to back up the assertion that they are either very good or very bad. Up against a good home side they look underpriced to me.
Lay Roma at 2.24 on Betfair. 3 points.
Week 20
Crystal Palace v Stoke City - Lose 2 points.
West Ham v Manchester United - Win 2.8 points.
Swansea v Arsenal - Win 2.4 points.
Levante v Athletic Bilbao - Win 3.5 points.
Lazio v Cagliari - Win 1.83 points.
Totals - Win 8.53 points.
Running Total - Up 19.88 points.
Music this week from another old favourite Hot Water Music with Under Everything.
Everton v Swansea, Saturday 1500
The pick of the prices for me on Saturday is Everton looking very short against the ever impressive Swansea. Everton started off the season like a train and were scoring goals from all areas and dominating any side they played physically too. The deployment of the hulking Marouane Fellaini behind the striker was a master stroke by David Moyes. Many sides now seem to be requiring goals less and less from the notional central man in the forward line, Christian Benteke at Aston Villa is another example. Fellaini can very well get goals when given the chance, and is a huge aerial threat, but his main role is to bully defenders and create space for those around him like Nikola Jelavic and Steven Pienaar. The problem in the last month has been that Fellaini has looked tired and the goals have dried up for the rest of the side at the same time. This leaves Everton as a solid side, Moyes will always see to that, but without the threat to justify such short odds in this.
Swansea look to have really settled into the style of play Michael Laudrup wants to see now. There were bound to be issues to be solved when changing from Brendan Rodgers Barcelona-lite style of constant passing to having more threat under Laudrup. To do this he has brought in players he was familiar with from his time in Spain. The most obvious success has been the forward Michu, who is taking up numerous column inches of late as some sort of 'discovery'. The fact is that he had been a journeyman until last year when he was moved forward and contributed 15 goals to a relatively poor Rayo Vallecano side. These things were there for all to see so I don't wuite buy into him being 'unearthed' by Swansea or Laudrup. But, he is having a brilliant season. He is not the tiki taka type and his style of simply looking for a shot at all times might even suit the Premier League better than La Liga. Throw in the likes of Jonatan De Guzman on the wing and the mercurial Pablo Hernandez also on the flanks and there is a lot of quality in this side now.
Lay Everton at 1.63 on Betfair. 2 points.
Norwich City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
A side I have followed since around November has been Norwich City. After the loss of manager Paul Lambert to Aston Villa in the summer the club went and got Chris Hughton from Birmingham City. Hughton had done superbly at both Newcastle and Birmingham in the Championship with restrictions on playing staff and Norwich took a chance on him doing the same in the Premier League. This initially may have looked madness with goals being shipped all over, but once they settled into his system they went on a ten match unbeaten streak to pull them well clear of the relegation spots. They had some mixed results over Xmas, but still look a very good side to me. They carry plenty of attacking threat for a mid-table side and look solid at the back. They are edging towards being short in this, but I'll just side with them at the larger prices out there.
Newcastle United have looked dreadful for most of the season so far. Last seasons push for the Champions League now looks a long way away with the side struggling and having already lose ten matches in the league. The first choice eleven that did so well last season has been torn apart by injuries so far and they don't look the same side when one or more of them is missing. The even bigger worry now is that after selling Demba Ba they may not even replace his guaranteed goals. Papiss Cisse now has those shoes to fill and I think he is a more rounded team player, but it will be up to Alan Pardew to make sure that he works to get wins. If these don't start coming soon then it could get very close to a relegation battle. New signings, that have not arrived yet, are needed.
Back Norwich City at 2.25 with BODOG. 2 points.
Manchester United v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
I have stated many times that I think that Manchester United could be doing a lot better than they are in terms of the performances they are turning in. However comma that being said they seem to be comfortably ticking along to getting the title back from neighbours City. This has largely been down to the performances of their forward players and in particular the summer signing, Robin Van Persie. The Dutch striker may have looked expensive for a player with little sell on value, but he will be a bargain if he continues to fire United to the league title. He also seems to be bringing the best out of Wayne Rooney since his spell with Cristiano Ronaldo, which would suggest to me that he can't do it all alone despite what some journalists in this country believe. With Nemanja Vidic also playing his way back into form and fitness they look a decent price to me.
Liverpool are regular lays for me. The sheer weight of supporters money sees them always going off at odds I would suggest are not representative of their performances or league position. I am also beginning to think that their manager Brendan Rodgers got lucky that all was in place for him at Swansea and his spell at Reading may be more like the 'real' Rodgers. Liverpool seem to still rely far too heavily on Luis Suarez dragging them through matches. This is no real shock as he is miles better than any other player at the club, but I would have liked to see Rodgers do something else to help him out. Presumably the signing of Daniel Sturridge is to help with this, but I don't think this is the game they suddenly burst into a partnership. In fact, I would not be surprised if Sturridge starts on the bench with Rodgers looking to contain. They are miles behind United at the moment and I don't see them stopping United scoring.
Back Manchester United at 1.9 with William Hill. 3 points.
Osasuna v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
Osasuna were a side I followed at home last year due to the awesome record they've had there in recent years. They are possibly the side you would most recognise as playing an 'English' style of physical football, Spain's Stoke if you will. They have a compact ground too with fans who are not there to enjoy flair players, rather they want to see their side bully the opposition off the park. They started this season off very poorly and have not turned it round to the extent that they are still bottom of the table. They have never been high scorers and this has been particularly costly with their defence suddenly conceding many more than in previous seasons. This has been tightened up in the last seven matches though, and they have in fact only conceded seven in nine matches at home so far. Strangely I think they've as much chance in this as any decent side visiting.
Real Madrid have become absolutely mental lately. Jose Mourinho seems to have decided that his best course of action is to get the sack and a massive pay off and is doing his best to drag the club into disrepute. He has never tried to placate the media in either Madrid or wider Spain and is now using this as a tool to turn everyone against him. He has recently dropped Iker Casillas as goalkeeper in what looks like more politics with Casillas and Sergio Ramos widely suspected dissenters. The club have all but given up on the league title and have been pretty dreadful on their travels. They're worth opposing for smallish stakes I think in what should be a tough match.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.49 on Betfair. 1.5 point.
Catania v Roma, Sunday 1400
Catania punched well above their weight last season under the newcomer to management Vincenzo Montella. The former Roma forward has since moved on to doing very well with Fiorentina, but his former club are not doing too badly themselves. A lot of this has been down to their excellent home form. Their record reads won six, drawn two and lost two at home so far with seventeen goals scored and only nine conceded. They may even better last seasons eleventh place finish in Rolando Maran's first season in charge. They returned to action after the winter break with a 0-0 draw with Torino at home which doesn't look great on paper, but they were donw to ten men and Torino are probably better than a thirteenth position in the standings.
Roma decided to scrap the Spanish experiment after just a year in the summer and re-appointed fan favourite Zdenek Zeman as manager from promoted Pescara. In the preceding years between his last spell at the club and his return his style of play has not changed at all, he is all out attack. This can be fantastic in Italy where sides still are unsure of how to contend with such an approach when most sides play a much more measured style. It also means that when the forwards don't fire though his sides can be left very exposed. Nowhere is this more true than away. They have a record of five wins, five losses and not a single draw to back up the assertion that they are either very good or very bad. Up against a good home side they look underpriced to me.
Lay Roma at 2.24 on Betfair. 3 points.
Thursday, 3 January 2013
New Bets For A New Year...
Hello all, hope you had an enjoyable break? Whilst I did not have time to complete a full column, I was active on the Twitter with some, unfortunately not great, tips. However comma we are still well up for the season so far at the halfway point so let's hope this new year brings yet more profitable selections.
Week 19
West Brom v Norwich - Lose 2 points.
Southampton v Sunderland - Win 1.9 points.
Malaga v Real Madrid - Win 2.8 points.
Atalanta v Udinese - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 3.3 points.
Running Total - Up 11.35 points.
Music this week comes from Cory Branan with Survivor Blues.
This weekend sees the FA Cup returning to England and I'm no huge fan on picking these matches in advance as team line-ups are very volatile depending on how seriously the sides are taking the competition. This being said, there's no doubt some value out there so here goes...
Crystal Palace v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
West Ham United v Manchester United, Saturday 1715
I am grouping these two matches together as they are bets I fancy for roundly similar reasons. Both involve sides with other interests and sides that are safely tucked away from danger. Whilst Crystal Palace started the season like a rocket under manager Dougie Freedman they have stuttered a bit since the appointment of Ian Holloway. The 'mad' manager from Devon is something of an expert at this level and there are already signs he is turning things round again for a play-off push. This is the team with other things on their mind in this tie and I would expect Holloway to forfeit a chance at a cup run in favour of a crack at promotion so any players tired or carrying the slightest knock will be rested in all likelihood.
Stoke, on the other hand, had a poor start by their standards but have improved a lot to now occupy a mid-table berth, which is about the target for them. They have one of the best defensive records in the entire Premier League and with a cup final appearance lately I would expect them to put out a strong side and go for another crack at the FA Cup. Their defence should cope with even the strongest Palace side so I'll be with them in this.
West Ham are in a similar position to Stoke in that their target was always going to be safety and they look well on course to achieve that. Sam Allardyce has his weak spots, but if you want a manager to sort out a defence and avoid trouble then he's pretty much the best there is available to most sides. They are more than capable of beating the big sides on their day and if Man United turn up with less than a full strength side then they could be in for an early exit.
As mentioned above, anything less than a full strength United side could be punished with exiting the FA Cup. When you consider they are top in the league and still in the Champions League they have better things to worry about than a domestic cup too. I would expect to see the likes of Robin Van Persie and Nemanja Vidic rested to keep them available for matches in the two aforementioned competitions and the back-up is nowhere near their level. I'm no huge fan of Danny Welbeck and with Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes possibly also playing a key role I would think United look short in this.
Back Stoke City at 2.45 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Lay Manchester United at 1.71 on Betfair. 2 points.
Swansea v Arsenal, Sunday 1330
The low point of many Arsenal fans seasons so far was probably the loss at home to Swansea. For many it was another glaring illustration of how far behind some of Wenger's previous teams the current side are and I would agree. But, this does something of a dis-service to a Swansea side who look to have picked up where Brendan Rodgers left off and are possibly even have more dimensions to their play now under Michael Laudrup. The Dane went to Spain over the summer for transfers and has been rewarded with some fantastic attacking talent at bargain prices. None more so than Michu who is bothering much bigger names at the top of the Premier League scorers chart. I think they are always slightly undervalued at present due to the quality they possess being more likely to win out in tight matches.
Arsenal fans may even look at someone like Michu and wonder why Arsene Wenger no longer finds foreign bargains like that any more. The likes of Patrick Vieira, Marc Overmars and Robert Pires were all picked up from abroad due to an excellent scouting network and contacts in Europe, but this seems less and less the case now. As manager the buck always stops with Wenger and his tactics don't seem to have evolved at all either. If a side is naive enough to let his side play then they are likely to get turned over, but if they set up cleverly then Arsenal seem to struggle more than ever to break them down, Southampton a few days ago being a case in point. They have shown many times they are far from a brilliant side, but with organised defending in numbers they nullified Arsenal for the most part and came away with a point. With the league and Champions League more important to Wenger I would not fancy them as favourites in this.
Lay Arsenal at 2.26 on Betfair. 3 points.
Levante v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1500
Two sides I've paid a lot of attention to in the last 18 months meet in Valencia on Saturday afternoon. Levante were the shock of last season in La Liga when they pushed all the way for a Champions League spot and narrowly missed out at the finish. They did still qualify for the Europa League though and have shown what a tough side they are to beat. When you look through their squad it is not filled with young players looking for a move, rather seasoned professionals who are all pulling in the same direction and looking for one last chance to impress. They are particularly good at home as is borne out in a record of won five, drawn one and lost two so far. The two losses were also too Real Madrid and Barcelona and the draw was against Atletico Madrid, so they are only not beating the very best in the division.
Athletic Bilbao would have fallen into the best in the division bracket at this stage a year ago, but have fallen considerably since. The manager Marcelo Bielsa has a track record of short spells of excellent performances followed by quick, huge, downturns. This can probably be put down to his rather eccentric personality and the demands he puts on the players in terms of training and matches to constantly press the opposition looking for gaps to exploit. Throw in the loss of star man and captain Javi Martinez to Bayern Munich and the exile of their best forward Fernando Llorente due to contract issues and they would have struggled anyway. They still look poor to me and Levante look great odds.
Back Levante at 2.4 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Lazio v Cagliari, Saturday 1945
With a strong finish to their league campaign in 2012, Lazio finished the year in second spot going into the winter break. This break probably came at the right time for one of the smaller squads amongst the top sides in Serie A and they will hope the key players are back refreshed and raring to go. The fact they are doing so well has largely been down to the performances they have put in at home with a record of won seven, drawn one and lost one, with eighteen scored and just eight conceded. It is their away form that leaves them so far behind Juventus, but that is of little consequence here. They went into the winter break with four home wins in a row, including the Rome derby and also a 1-0 win against Inter Milan, and they look a good price in this.
Cagliari find themselves struggling once again near the foot of the table. In fact, if it wasn't for Siena's points deduction they would be in the bottom three and adrift there. They are far from a big side though and are probably only ever going to aim for safety and may well drop back into Serie B this year or in the near future. Their problems are not hard to identify, they concede too many and don't score nearly enough. With nineteen conceded away from home so far they actually have the second worst record for that in the entire division. They have also only scored eight and look very short for this match in the betting, I can only imagine Lazio's possible rustiness as a factor. I don't see this being enough to put us off though so I'll be going big on them.
Back Lazio at 1.61 with BetVictor. 3 points.
Week 19
West Brom v Norwich - Lose 2 points.
Southampton v Sunderland - Win 1.9 points.
Malaga v Real Madrid - Win 2.8 points.
Atalanta v Udinese - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 3.3 points.
Running Total - Up 11.35 points.
Music this week comes from Cory Branan with Survivor Blues.
This weekend sees the FA Cup returning to England and I'm no huge fan on picking these matches in advance as team line-ups are very volatile depending on how seriously the sides are taking the competition. This being said, there's no doubt some value out there so here goes...
Crystal Palace v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
West Ham United v Manchester United, Saturday 1715
I am grouping these two matches together as they are bets I fancy for roundly similar reasons. Both involve sides with other interests and sides that are safely tucked away from danger. Whilst Crystal Palace started the season like a rocket under manager Dougie Freedman they have stuttered a bit since the appointment of Ian Holloway. The 'mad' manager from Devon is something of an expert at this level and there are already signs he is turning things round again for a play-off push. This is the team with other things on their mind in this tie and I would expect Holloway to forfeit a chance at a cup run in favour of a crack at promotion so any players tired or carrying the slightest knock will be rested in all likelihood.
Stoke, on the other hand, had a poor start by their standards but have improved a lot to now occupy a mid-table berth, which is about the target for them. They have one of the best defensive records in the entire Premier League and with a cup final appearance lately I would expect them to put out a strong side and go for another crack at the FA Cup. Their defence should cope with even the strongest Palace side so I'll be with them in this.
West Ham are in a similar position to Stoke in that their target was always going to be safety and they look well on course to achieve that. Sam Allardyce has his weak spots, but if you want a manager to sort out a defence and avoid trouble then he's pretty much the best there is available to most sides. They are more than capable of beating the big sides on their day and if Man United turn up with less than a full strength side then they could be in for an early exit.
As mentioned above, anything less than a full strength United side could be punished with exiting the FA Cup. When you consider they are top in the league and still in the Champions League they have better things to worry about than a domestic cup too. I would expect to see the likes of Robin Van Persie and Nemanja Vidic rested to keep them available for matches in the two aforementioned competitions and the back-up is nowhere near their level. I'm no huge fan of Danny Welbeck and with Ryan Giggs and Paul Scholes possibly also playing a key role I would think United look short in this.
Back Stoke City at 2.45 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Lay Manchester United at 1.71 on Betfair. 2 points.
Swansea v Arsenal, Sunday 1330
The low point of many Arsenal fans seasons so far was probably the loss at home to Swansea. For many it was another glaring illustration of how far behind some of Wenger's previous teams the current side are and I would agree. But, this does something of a dis-service to a Swansea side who look to have picked up where Brendan Rodgers left off and are possibly even have more dimensions to their play now under Michael Laudrup. The Dane went to Spain over the summer for transfers and has been rewarded with some fantastic attacking talent at bargain prices. None more so than Michu who is bothering much bigger names at the top of the Premier League scorers chart. I think they are always slightly undervalued at present due to the quality they possess being more likely to win out in tight matches.
Arsenal fans may even look at someone like Michu and wonder why Arsene Wenger no longer finds foreign bargains like that any more. The likes of Patrick Vieira, Marc Overmars and Robert Pires were all picked up from abroad due to an excellent scouting network and contacts in Europe, but this seems less and less the case now. As manager the buck always stops with Wenger and his tactics don't seem to have evolved at all either. If a side is naive enough to let his side play then they are likely to get turned over, but if they set up cleverly then Arsenal seem to struggle more than ever to break them down, Southampton a few days ago being a case in point. They have shown many times they are far from a brilliant side, but with organised defending in numbers they nullified Arsenal for the most part and came away with a point. With the league and Champions League more important to Wenger I would not fancy them as favourites in this.
Lay Arsenal at 2.26 on Betfair. 3 points.
Levante v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1500
Two sides I've paid a lot of attention to in the last 18 months meet in Valencia on Saturday afternoon. Levante were the shock of last season in La Liga when they pushed all the way for a Champions League spot and narrowly missed out at the finish. They did still qualify for the Europa League though and have shown what a tough side they are to beat. When you look through their squad it is not filled with young players looking for a move, rather seasoned professionals who are all pulling in the same direction and looking for one last chance to impress. They are particularly good at home as is borne out in a record of won five, drawn one and lost two so far. The two losses were also too Real Madrid and Barcelona and the draw was against Atletico Madrid, so they are only not beating the very best in the division.
Athletic Bilbao would have fallen into the best in the division bracket at this stage a year ago, but have fallen considerably since. The manager Marcelo Bielsa has a track record of short spells of excellent performances followed by quick, huge, downturns. This can probably be put down to his rather eccentric personality and the demands he puts on the players in terms of training and matches to constantly press the opposition looking for gaps to exploit. Throw in the loss of star man and captain Javi Martinez to Bayern Munich and the exile of their best forward Fernando Llorente due to contract issues and they would have struggled anyway. They still look poor to me and Levante look great odds.
Back Levante at 2.4 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Lazio v Cagliari, Saturday 1945
With a strong finish to their league campaign in 2012, Lazio finished the year in second spot going into the winter break. This break probably came at the right time for one of the smaller squads amongst the top sides in Serie A and they will hope the key players are back refreshed and raring to go. The fact they are doing so well has largely been down to the performances they have put in at home with a record of won seven, drawn one and lost one, with eighteen scored and just eight conceded. It is their away form that leaves them so far behind Juventus, but that is of little consequence here. They went into the winter break with four home wins in a row, including the Rome derby and also a 1-0 win against Inter Milan, and they look a good price in this.
Cagliari find themselves struggling once again near the foot of the table. In fact, if it wasn't for Siena's points deduction they would be in the bottom three and adrift there. They are far from a big side though and are probably only ever going to aim for safety and may well drop back into Serie B this year or in the near future. Their problems are not hard to identify, they concede too many and don't score nearly enough. With nineteen conceded away from home so far they actually have the second worst record for that in the entire division. They have also only scored eight and look very short for this match in the betting, I can only imagine Lazio's possible rustiness as a factor. I don't see this being enough to put us off though so I'll be going big on them.
Back Lazio at 1.61 with BetVictor. 3 points.
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