Welcome to another weekends tipping one and all. It has been brought to my attention, mostly by the extremely good numbers, that calculations of the running total are slightly skewed! I will update it to give a true reflection this week in the running total.
Week Six
West Ham v Sunderland - win 1.56 points.
Man City v Arsenal - win 2.4 points.
Real Betis v Espanyol - win 2.2 points.
Udinese v AC Milan - win 3.8 points.
Hamburg v Borussia Dortmund - lose 3 points.
Elazigspor v Bursaspor - lose 3 points.
Sivasspor v Kasimpasa - lose 2 points.
Weekly Total - win 1.96 points.
Running Total - win 7.92 points.
Music this week is another new one to me, and it's The Riot Before with Fists Buried In Pockets.
Arsenal v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
London's most successful sides of the last decade meet at The Emirates in Saturday's early kick off. Arsenal have confounded many pre-season pundits predictions by starting the season off exceptionally well. Possibly the most impressive part of this has been the new defensive solidarity they are displaying with Steve Bould now moved to assistant manager duties. When you have two young full backs like Carl Jenkinson and Kieron Gibbs playing it is all the more impressive that they seem so organised. The signing of Per Mertesacker had also been ridiculed in many quarters, but so far he too has shown the reason why he has as many caps for the German national team as he does. Arsenal have not had an easy start either with trips to Liverpool and Manchester City already navigated with a sound win at Anfield and a draw that could well have been a win at the City of Manchester Stadium. Throw in the thrashing of Southampton and Wednesday night's annihilation of Coventry by a largely reserve side and at the moment you have to respect the Gunners. All this being said I think general quotes of 2.1 are a bit too tight for me.
Chelsea have also impressed for the most part and sit top of the table. They have had a much easier start and it has been their attack, rather than defence, that has been the most impressive part of the side for a change. Eden Hazard has looked a very good player and Oscar also impressed immensely when given a full run-out against Juventus with two goals to his name. That match showed their flaws for all to see though. The defence has got old together and is given very little protection by a central midfield pair of Frank Lampard and John Obi Mikel. Lampard is still a neat enough player in possession, but he never has been able to defennd well and Mikel has not shown anything like the ability to justify his huge fee from Manchester United many years ago. Throw in the fact that Roberto Di Matteo does not convince me at all as a top level manager and his tactics smell of telling the best players to go out there and get on with it. This lack of tactical nous will contribute to the goals conceded column being higher than usual.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9 with BoyleSports. 2 points.
Sunderland v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Sunderland have featured a fair bit in the column already this term and that's mainly due to the fact I think it's very easy to predict how a Martin O'Neill side will play. He's not a manager for unnecessary flair in his teams and will always look to avoid defeat both away and against better sides long before thinking about possibly winning. They rely a lot on a strong physical presence in attack and also a player who is comfortable with all aspects of being a forward and this is probably why they were willing to pay so much for Steven Fletcher. I will always argue he is never a £15million forward for me, but I can see he has a lot of value in this side. His record so far is exceptional and the team is set up to supply him with numerous chances which so far he is snapping up. The defence will always again be a physical lot and the full backs will not be asked to support the attack unless miles in front. This lends itself to a sound defensive record that should be the case for the whole season.
Wigan are the same as they ever were, largely unpredictable. The policy of buying other clubs rejects and technically sound foreign names has continued under Roberto Martinez. He has not been afraid to throw players into the side who may not be given a chance at other clubs and sometimes they look inspirational, but other times they look terrible. The Spanish centre half Ivan Ramis has looked a shocking player so far, but Martinez is persisting and I fail to see how he will come on with the history of Spanish defenders in English football. You also have Franco Di Santo who looked a terrible prospect at Chelsea and also for most of last season at Wigan too. However, some games recently he's looked a player and can obviously turn it on when he wants. I don't see this game being anywhere near open enough for them to get anything though.
Back Sunderland at 2.0 with Totesport. 2 points.
Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1900
Athletic Bilbao were often present in tips last season, but have looked a shadow of the side so far this time out. There is a theory that goes round that manager Marcelo Bielsa can only be effective for a season before players grow tired of his constant nagging and demanding nature. This certainly seems true with them only winning one of five so far. Real Sociedad have started the season ok, especially after last seasons travails and sit just above Bilbao in the mid-table area. They are two from two wins at home though and look very backable at prices to me.
Back Real Sociedad at 2.4 with Paddy Power. 1 point.
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Schalke, Friday 1930
Fortuna Dusseldorf are still unbeaten after five matches having been promoted from the Bundesliga II over the summer. The managers policy seems to have been to sign up every player that impressed him in their promotion season from the second division and so far it has looked inspired with no egos and huge efforts going in from every player. They have also had three very tough matches out of five, coming out of games with Borussia Monchengladbach, Freiburg and Stuttgart with a win and two draws. The most amazing statistic for me is that they are still yet to concede a goal in a league as notorious for goals as the Bundesliga. They will probably tail off to finish nearer to mid-table than the top, but I think they're worth following at the moment.
Schalke have also started well and sit one place above Dusseldorf. They were soundly beaten 2-0 by a Bayern Munich team at home last weekend, but this should be tempered by the blistering start the Munich giants have made. They have scored ten in their five matches, but also shown their weaknesses by conceding five goals in that timeframe. They are also yet to come up against a side as defence minded as Dusseldorf and could well get a shock if the promoted side can continue playing as they are.
Lay Schalke at 1.98 on Betfair. 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich, Saturday 1430
Werder Bremen have started the season displaying much the same form they have every season for as long as I've kept an eye on them. They are definitely from the Ossie Ardiles tactical school of attack first and attack second. They tried sorting the defence out briefly last season, but found it was unfixable and they just scored less and lost more so have returned to as they were. They have a symetrical record so far of won two, drawn one and lost two and have scored nine and conceded eight to back up my point about their tactical approach. They will be approaching this nervously I would imagine. No side is playing as well as Bayern Munich at present.
Munich have gone off like a train this season, much as they did this time last year. They have played five, won five, scored seventeen and conceded just two. They always had the players to go on a run like this, their attack is unrivalled in most of Europe and with the addition of Javi Martinez in defence/midfield over the summer they have improved an already excellent team. The added bonus for manager Jupp Heynckes is that the large squad he has now seem perfectly able to step into the side and fight for their places. This is particularly shown by the current form of Toni Kroos who may well have been expected to become a bit part with Martinez addition, but has stepped up to be man of the match last weekend when he had a chance. I don't see them getting beat any time soon, certainly not by a team as open as Werder Bremen.
Back Bayern Munich at 1.6 on Betfair. 3 points.
Inter Milan v Fiorentina, Sunday 1945
Another week with just one pick standing out as value to me in Italy. AC Milan finally broke the winless curse of the new Milan stadium by beating Cagliari in midweek. However, this was the first win for either Milan side since the relaying of the turf and with attendances well down with both sides a shadow of their recent selves. Inter appointed youth coach Andrea Stramaccioni last season to replace Claudio Ranieri and he has had mixed results so far. He seems unsure of what his best side is and the same can be said of formation and it shows with there being no regularity in the levels of performance at all. They won away at a poor Chievo side in midweek after losing 2-0 at home to an equally poor Siena side at the weekend to emphasise the point somewhat.
Fiorentina had decent expectations of this season with the return to fitness of star man Stefan Jovetic and then keeping hold of him over the summer transfer window. They've not been great away from home so far, but sit in mid-table so far with ideas to push on for Europe as the season progresses. I would certainly put them level on ability with Inter and AC Milan, if not perhaps better due to a much more settled defence than either Milan side. I can't back INter at home at these odds so they have to be a lay for me.
Lay Inter Milan at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Eskisehirpsor v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1400
First up in the Super Lig this week is two of the sides to establish themselves as the best of the rest in recent years. Both built this up on the back of good home records and excellent defensive records to match, but both have slid somewhat in recent times. Eskisehir have become very hit and miss in particular and have already conceded nine goals in five matches to somewhat destroy their previous form. I'm not sure whether it has been a concerted tactical change to try and score more leaving them more exposed, or simply a weakening of the side, but they are not making current odds seem justified at all.
Istanbul BB had an amazing home record for the past two seasons right up until the very end of last season when suddenly their away form picked right up. So far this season they have not won at home, but have won both away games with a five to zero deficit. Again I am a little uncertain as to how exactly this was achieved besides becoming a more attacking side away. This approach is still very rare in Turkey (to go for an away win) and it may be as simple to explain as other teams still are unsure how to deal with being on the back foot at home.
Lay Eskisehirspor at 1.98 on Betfair. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Sunday 1700
I'm going for much the same reasoning in this game. Trabzonspor are a more than decent side, but they are still struggling to replace the goals Buruk Yilmaz has provided for the last two seasons in attack. This is no small task with the Turkish striker responsible for more than half the sides goals last season. He was a greedy player so many thought Trabzon could even be improved as a team with his departure, and they still might, but at present they look a side in transition. I can't trust them at such short odds.
Mersin are possibly the only other side outside the big three that go far win away from home apart from Istanbul BB. This can provide some very interesting scorelines in a country not renowned for high scoring encounters. In two away games so far they have scored four and conceded five and with their poor home form sit second bottom. I don't think this is a true reflection of how they've been playing though and certainly don't make Trabzon 1.5 favs.
Lay Trabzonspor at 1.5 on Betfair. 1 point.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0 with Stan James. 1 point.
Thursday, 27 September 2012
Thursday, 20 September 2012
The Season Starts Here...
Obviously the season has already started, but I feel we can now start to try and make some informed assessments of how clubs may fare after seeing a few matches for most sides. Tonight sees the start of the Europa League Group Stage after the first matches of the Champions League have just finished. Those who follow me on Twitter will have noted I got every tip right for the Champions League this week, that's six out of flaming six!
Week Five
Arsenal v Southampton - win 3.8 points.
Sunderland v Liverpool - win 5.1 points.
Osasuna v Mallorca - lose 1 point.
Hannover v Werder Bremen - win 4.74 points.
Greuther Furth v Schalke - lose 2 points.
Genoa v Juventus - win 4.92 points.
Antalyaspor v Galatasaray - win 5.91 points.
Trabzonspor v Sivasspor - win 6.0 points.
Total - win 27.47 points.
Running Total - win 43.66 points.
This is obviously a fantastic start, but needless to say it would be almost impossible to keep these sorts of figures running for a whole season. It does give a great cushion to be betting from though and something to fall back upon when an inevitable bad week occurs.
Music this week from a new discovery, Left Alone with Drunk Again.
West Ham v Sunderland, Saturday 1730
The Hammers have had something of a mixed start so far, but they certainly looked at their best when the on-loan Andy Carroll was playing against Fulham. This should come as no real surprise as if ever a player fitted the Sam Allardyce blueprint it is the big Geordie. He should again be missing here, barring a miracle recovery, and that does leave them looking a lot blunter in attack for me. There's plenty of graft, as there always is in an Allardyce side, but precious little in the inventiveness stakes. The signing of Yossi Benayoun could help with this in the future, but with him coming off the bench later on recently he doesn't seem to have the required fitness to complete a full match. They have so far won both home matches, but these should be looked at more closely. The first match of the season was at home to Aston Villa who had still not got the Alex McCleish monkey off their backs and the second win was almost entirely down to the tactics employed to utilise Carroll against the never great away Fulham. This is a much tougher match on paper than both of those.
Sunderland have similarly started ok, but are yet to win. They have three draws from three matches, but these do contain encounters with a much improved Arsenal and last weeks visit of Liverpool. Whilst Liverpool are no great shakes at all these days they are still a better calibre of opponent than West Ham have faced and to get a draw will have given the Mackems some confidence that a first win won't be far away. The signing of Steven Fletcher was still more expensive than it needed to be to my mind, but you can't argue that he is effective in the Premier League. Since he has so far scored all of Sunderland's three goals too it looks a good acquisition so far for Martin O'Neill. Sunderland will always be set up in a safety first style under O'Neill, just as his recent Aston Villa sides were, but this does mean they should have no more nightmares about relegation. They will again be set up for a draw and trying to nick a goal in this and I think they're value to avoid defeat.
Lay West Ham at 2.22 on Betfair. 2 points.
Manchester City v Arsenal. Sunday 1600
I toyed with the Liverpool v Manchester United match, but since Liverpool always raise their game for that one I'm not sure about betting it other than In -Play. We'll stick to Manchester's other title hopefuls City taking on a new Arsenal side that's looked pretty good so far. It has been mentioned in numerous places already, but Roberto Mancini's tinkering constantly with his side so far seems to be leaving them all at sea at times and shipping far more goals than they were doing last season. They only lost 3-2 in the dying moments away at Real Madrid on Tuesday night, but the fact they were leading twice makes that result a lot more gutting for City fans than it might otherwise have been. The widely hailed Vincent Kompany did not look comfortable with Joleon Lescott being replaced by Matija Nastasic at centre back. The Serbian looks an improvement on Stefan Savic, but with neither player being overly physical they didn't seem able to simply get rid when necessary. This led to Kompany being at fault for two of the goals and with Lescott on the bench it does ask questions of Mancini's decision making again. He seems to be over-complicating things in my opinion and would be advised to go back to they system that won them the league.
Arsenal were also in Champions League action against Montpellier in France on Tuesday night. They went behind early after conceding a penalty, but rallied quickly to be ahead at half time and hung on for a 2-1 win. The most interesting aspect of that match and the 6-1 mauling of Southampton last weekend was Gervinho being started at the peak of the attack. The Ivory Coast international certainly always looked threatening previously, but I think very few would have seen him moving into a strikers role at any point. However comma he has now scored in both of these matches so I would expect him to continue. The major plus points to come at the start of the season for Arsenal are the ease with which Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla have settled in and the current organisation of the whole team defensively. Cazorla and Podolski are both experienced international players so you would expect them to slot in, but to do so so quickly has been a major boost and there is very quiet talk of how far this side could go. Personally I think defences win titles, be that league or cup, so if you are of the opinion Steve Bould has sorted this out then I certainly wouldn't put you off a bet to trade on outrights.
Lay Manchester City at 1.8 with Betfair. 2 points.
Real Betis v Espanyol, Saturday 1900
So far I've got every single Spanish pick wrong. I'm going to go with early season form in this one with a little bit of historical backing up. Betis sit in the top half of the table at this early stage thanks to two away wins and a narrow home loss to a Rayo side in good early form themselves. Espanyol are struggling at the foot of the table and never travel well anyway. They have one solitary point from four matches and look a side who have accepted they will struggle already.
Back Real Betis at 2.05 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Udinese v AC Milan, Sunday 1400
Both of these sides were involved in the title race at points last season and after summer sales en masse at both are not looking likely to hit those heights this term. Udinese are well used to having to sell off their prized assets every year and rely upon a scouting network that keeps unearthing gems, mostly in Eastern Europe, Africa and South America. This production line has seen them blood the likes of Kwadwo Asamoah, Alexis Sanchez and Mauricio Isla and then sell them on for large sums. The only seeming constant is the striker Antonio Di Natale who has such dodgy knees he surely can't go on much longer. Udine are without a win so far and were thrashed at home by Juventus, but encouragingly they have scored in every match to show they are not completely lifeless. They will get chances against an AC Milan side in an even worse state.
I advised laying AC Milan at home to Anderlecht on Tuesday night and I think it was my best tip for a while as very few thought it was an anyway decent shout. No side has experienced a clear out quite like AC this summer with the likes of star men Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic departing to PSG as well as veterans like Clarence Seedorf being offloaded to trim the wage bill. This leaves them woefully short of any flair or experience. When you add in the new artificial pitch and disappointing attendances it also makes home advantage almost nil when they do play there. With Silvio Berlusconi also now making noises to say investment will not be forthcoming for the forseeable future we may well have seen the last of AC as any sort of force for a long time. How they are favourites for this match in current form I'm not sure.
Back Udinese at 2.9 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Hamburg v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
Hamburg have regularly featured in this column over the last year as they are consistently woeful and therefore a team well worth opposing pretty regularly. They brought back old fan favourite Rafael Van Der Vaart from Tottenham just before the transfer window shut, but I fail to see how this signing really improves their chances of survival. I am a huge fan of Van Der Vaart as a player, but he will not be the one to dig in and battle if things get increasingly tough and he has never been involved in a relegation scrap. He does not strike me a leader either and Hamburg sorely need one of those. They are currently bottom of the Bundesliga without a point and they look doomed to finally dropping out of the top division this season. They finally scored in the last match, losing 3-2 to Frankfurt, but Frankfurt are a promoted side and at best expected to be lower mid-table.
Borussia Dortmund are looking for a hat-trick of titles this season and have started a little slowly. They dropped points in an away draw at Nurnberg two weeks ago, but Nurnberg have started very strongly so far and Dortmund have been improving with every game. This was also the case last season where Bayern went off like a rocket before Dortmund reeled them in and overtook them comfortably in the end. The loss of Shinji Kagawa was a blow, but with the signing of Marco Reus they should have an even better replacement once he starts to fit in. The return of Mario Gotze to fitness should also see their attack now begin to sparkle and they will have a brilliant chance here to really get going properly with a big win.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.74 on Betfair. 3 points.
Elazigspor v Bursaspor, Sunday 1500
Elazigspor won promotion last season from the second division in Turkey and have looked like they may well head straight back so far this season. They currently sit bottom of the Super Lig with one point from four games. That was in their opener against Fenerbahce at home and since then they have been beaten three times in a row without even scoring a goal. It does not look good at all for them and Bursaspor are a side who are more than capable of scoring a few given the opportunity. I think it's well worth watching Elazigspor and backing their opponents at present if prices are good.
Bursaspor struggled at times last season and ended up outside the title deciding play-off group. Having won the title as recently as four years ago this was not entirely expected and they have worked hard over the summer to try to put things right and have started well, scoring goals pretty freely after the first two matches where they struggled to get it together in attack. They'll relish this match up and should win fairly easily if they repeat recent performances.
Back Bursaspor at 2.0 with Stan James. 3 points.
Sivasspor v Kasimpasa, Sunday 1500
The other Sunday afternoon match in the Super Lig sees newly promoted and thriving Kasimpasa travelling to Sivasspor. Sivasspor got beaten last week in a tight encounter with Trabzonspor, but only narrowly. They have definitely tightened up their defence in away matches and slightly lessened the cavalier approach they have employed for the past two seasons. In saying that, when teams come at them they are still happy to go right back as seen in the only match like this they've had this season in a 3-3 draw with Mersin Idman Yurdu. This should be one of those matches.
Kasimpasa currently sit near the summit of the table thanks to a blistering start that has seen them only losing once, away to Galatasaray on matchday one. They have won every other match and scored in every match too. They signed numerous players over the summer with Super Lig experience and it seems to be paying off. They should not be in any danger whatsoever of going straight back down this season. I think they're worth splitting the betting on here.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9 with Ladbrokes. 1 point.
Back Kasimpasa at 3.5 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Week Five
Arsenal v Southampton - win 3.8 points.
Sunderland v Liverpool - win 5.1 points.
Osasuna v Mallorca - lose 1 point.
Hannover v Werder Bremen - win 4.74 points.
Greuther Furth v Schalke - lose 2 points.
Genoa v Juventus - win 4.92 points.
Antalyaspor v Galatasaray - win 5.91 points.
Trabzonspor v Sivasspor - win 6.0 points.
Total - win 27.47 points.
Running Total - win 43.66 points.
This is obviously a fantastic start, but needless to say it would be almost impossible to keep these sorts of figures running for a whole season. It does give a great cushion to be betting from though and something to fall back upon when an inevitable bad week occurs.
Music this week from a new discovery, Left Alone with Drunk Again.
West Ham v Sunderland, Saturday 1730
The Hammers have had something of a mixed start so far, but they certainly looked at their best when the on-loan Andy Carroll was playing against Fulham. This should come as no real surprise as if ever a player fitted the Sam Allardyce blueprint it is the big Geordie. He should again be missing here, barring a miracle recovery, and that does leave them looking a lot blunter in attack for me. There's plenty of graft, as there always is in an Allardyce side, but precious little in the inventiveness stakes. The signing of Yossi Benayoun could help with this in the future, but with him coming off the bench later on recently he doesn't seem to have the required fitness to complete a full match. They have so far won both home matches, but these should be looked at more closely. The first match of the season was at home to Aston Villa who had still not got the Alex McCleish monkey off their backs and the second win was almost entirely down to the tactics employed to utilise Carroll against the never great away Fulham. This is a much tougher match on paper than both of those.
Sunderland have similarly started ok, but are yet to win. They have three draws from three matches, but these do contain encounters with a much improved Arsenal and last weeks visit of Liverpool. Whilst Liverpool are no great shakes at all these days they are still a better calibre of opponent than West Ham have faced and to get a draw will have given the Mackems some confidence that a first win won't be far away. The signing of Steven Fletcher was still more expensive than it needed to be to my mind, but you can't argue that he is effective in the Premier League. Since he has so far scored all of Sunderland's three goals too it looks a good acquisition so far for Martin O'Neill. Sunderland will always be set up in a safety first style under O'Neill, just as his recent Aston Villa sides were, but this does mean they should have no more nightmares about relegation. They will again be set up for a draw and trying to nick a goal in this and I think they're value to avoid defeat.
Lay West Ham at 2.22 on Betfair. 2 points.
Manchester City v Arsenal. Sunday 1600
I toyed with the Liverpool v Manchester United match, but since Liverpool always raise their game for that one I'm not sure about betting it other than In -Play. We'll stick to Manchester's other title hopefuls City taking on a new Arsenal side that's looked pretty good so far. It has been mentioned in numerous places already, but Roberto Mancini's tinkering constantly with his side so far seems to be leaving them all at sea at times and shipping far more goals than they were doing last season. They only lost 3-2 in the dying moments away at Real Madrid on Tuesday night, but the fact they were leading twice makes that result a lot more gutting for City fans than it might otherwise have been. The widely hailed Vincent Kompany did not look comfortable with Joleon Lescott being replaced by Matija Nastasic at centre back. The Serbian looks an improvement on Stefan Savic, but with neither player being overly physical they didn't seem able to simply get rid when necessary. This led to Kompany being at fault for two of the goals and with Lescott on the bench it does ask questions of Mancini's decision making again. He seems to be over-complicating things in my opinion and would be advised to go back to they system that won them the league.
Arsenal were also in Champions League action against Montpellier in France on Tuesday night. They went behind early after conceding a penalty, but rallied quickly to be ahead at half time and hung on for a 2-1 win. The most interesting aspect of that match and the 6-1 mauling of Southampton last weekend was Gervinho being started at the peak of the attack. The Ivory Coast international certainly always looked threatening previously, but I think very few would have seen him moving into a strikers role at any point. However comma he has now scored in both of these matches so I would expect him to continue. The major plus points to come at the start of the season for Arsenal are the ease with which Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla have settled in and the current organisation of the whole team defensively. Cazorla and Podolski are both experienced international players so you would expect them to slot in, but to do so so quickly has been a major boost and there is very quiet talk of how far this side could go. Personally I think defences win titles, be that league or cup, so if you are of the opinion Steve Bould has sorted this out then I certainly wouldn't put you off a bet to trade on outrights.
Lay Manchester City at 1.8 with Betfair. 2 points.
Real Betis v Espanyol, Saturday 1900
So far I've got every single Spanish pick wrong. I'm going to go with early season form in this one with a little bit of historical backing up. Betis sit in the top half of the table at this early stage thanks to two away wins and a narrow home loss to a Rayo side in good early form themselves. Espanyol are struggling at the foot of the table and never travel well anyway. They have one solitary point from four matches and look a side who have accepted they will struggle already.
Back Real Betis at 2.05 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Udinese v AC Milan, Sunday 1400
Both of these sides were involved in the title race at points last season and after summer sales en masse at both are not looking likely to hit those heights this term. Udinese are well used to having to sell off their prized assets every year and rely upon a scouting network that keeps unearthing gems, mostly in Eastern Europe, Africa and South America. This production line has seen them blood the likes of Kwadwo Asamoah, Alexis Sanchez and Mauricio Isla and then sell them on for large sums. The only seeming constant is the striker Antonio Di Natale who has such dodgy knees he surely can't go on much longer. Udine are without a win so far and were thrashed at home by Juventus, but encouragingly they have scored in every match to show they are not completely lifeless. They will get chances against an AC Milan side in an even worse state.
I advised laying AC Milan at home to Anderlecht on Tuesday night and I think it was my best tip for a while as very few thought it was an anyway decent shout. No side has experienced a clear out quite like AC this summer with the likes of star men Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic departing to PSG as well as veterans like Clarence Seedorf being offloaded to trim the wage bill. This leaves them woefully short of any flair or experience. When you add in the new artificial pitch and disappointing attendances it also makes home advantage almost nil when they do play there. With Silvio Berlusconi also now making noises to say investment will not be forthcoming for the forseeable future we may well have seen the last of AC as any sort of force for a long time. How they are favourites for this match in current form I'm not sure.
Back Udinese at 2.9 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Hamburg v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
Hamburg have regularly featured in this column over the last year as they are consistently woeful and therefore a team well worth opposing pretty regularly. They brought back old fan favourite Rafael Van Der Vaart from Tottenham just before the transfer window shut, but I fail to see how this signing really improves their chances of survival. I am a huge fan of Van Der Vaart as a player, but he will not be the one to dig in and battle if things get increasingly tough and he has never been involved in a relegation scrap. He does not strike me a leader either and Hamburg sorely need one of those. They are currently bottom of the Bundesliga without a point and they look doomed to finally dropping out of the top division this season. They finally scored in the last match, losing 3-2 to Frankfurt, but Frankfurt are a promoted side and at best expected to be lower mid-table.
Borussia Dortmund are looking for a hat-trick of titles this season and have started a little slowly. They dropped points in an away draw at Nurnberg two weeks ago, but Nurnberg have started very strongly so far and Dortmund have been improving with every game. This was also the case last season where Bayern went off like a rocket before Dortmund reeled them in and overtook them comfortably in the end. The loss of Shinji Kagawa was a blow, but with the signing of Marco Reus they should have an even better replacement once he starts to fit in. The return of Mario Gotze to fitness should also see their attack now begin to sparkle and they will have a brilliant chance here to really get going properly with a big win.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.74 on Betfair. 3 points.
Elazigspor v Bursaspor, Sunday 1500
Elazigspor won promotion last season from the second division in Turkey and have looked like they may well head straight back so far this season. They currently sit bottom of the Super Lig with one point from four games. That was in their opener against Fenerbahce at home and since then they have been beaten three times in a row without even scoring a goal. It does not look good at all for them and Bursaspor are a side who are more than capable of scoring a few given the opportunity. I think it's well worth watching Elazigspor and backing their opponents at present if prices are good.
Bursaspor struggled at times last season and ended up outside the title deciding play-off group. Having won the title as recently as four years ago this was not entirely expected and they have worked hard over the summer to try to put things right and have started well, scoring goals pretty freely after the first two matches where they struggled to get it together in attack. They'll relish this match up and should win fairly easily if they repeat recent performances.
Back Bursaspor at 2.0 with Stan James. 3 points.
Sivasspor v Kasimpasa, Sunday 1500
The other Sunday afternoon match in the Super Lig sees newly promoted and thriving Kasimpasa travelling to Sivasspor. Sivasspor got beaten last week in a tight encounter with Trabzonspor, but only narrowly. They have definitely tightened up their defence in away matches and slightly lessened the cavalier approach they have employed for the past two seasons. In saying that, when teams come at them they are still happy to go right back as seen in the only match like this they've had this season in a 3-3 draw with Mersin Idman Yurdu. This should be one of those matches.
Kasimpasa currently sit near the summit of the table thanks to a blistering start that has seen them only losing once, away to Galatasaray on matchday one. They have won every other match and scored in every match too. They signed numerous players over the summer with Super Lig experience and it seems to be paying off. They should not be in any danger whatsoever of going straight back down this season. I think they're worth splitting the betting on here.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9 with Ladbrokes. 1 point.
Back Kasimpasa at 3.5 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Thursday, 13 September 2012
The Domestic Scene...
Normally I don't really enjoy betting on international matches as there are so many awful teams, particularly in the UEFA jurisdiction, that the odds are prohibitively short. However, I came out on top last Friday so I may have to change my mind!
Week 4 (Internationals)
Albania v Cyprus - lose 2 points.
Montenegro v Poland - lose 2 points.
Netherlands v Turkey - win 4.59 points.
Moldova v England - win 8.64 points.
Colombia v Uruguay - win 5 points.
Russia, England and Netherlands treble - win 5 points.
Win 19.29 points.
Music this week comes from Incubus with Nice To Know You, a bit of a blast from the past.
Arsenal v Southampton, Saturday 1500
Arsenal seem to be splitting opinions so far on whether they are primed for a good season or not. This is perfectly understandable when you take into account Arsenal's traditional strength of attacking and weakness in defence has been completely reversed at the moment. The Gunners are still yet to concede a league goal and the introduction of Steve Bould to the senior coaching set-up seems to have been an excellent decision. The problem has been in attack and the fact that Lukas Podolski and Oliver Giroud are yet to really convince as a pairing. The other major signing of Santi Cazorla already looks at home at Arsenal and is supllying the bullets for the two forwards, but Giroud in particular looks off the pace so far. He is getting in the right positions though so it could be argued that one goal will relieve the burden and see him scoring a few. With that in mind there is probably no better time to be facing a Southampton side who have looked leaky at the back. I can see Santi Cazorla running riot behind the forwards and Arsenal could get a clear victory if they put the inevitable chances away.
Southampton have actually impressed so far, albeit without securing a point. There attack looks good and has seen them scoring twice against both Manchester sides already. The problem lies in the fact their backline is nowhere near the required standard of a Premier League side. I said in my pre-season article that I thought they would struggle to keep sides out if they did not add some quality or experience to their defence and it looks as though I am being proven correct. Manager Nigel Adkins has also not made the right decisions so far and his removal of his three best performers when leading against Manchester United in their last match directly led to them ceding the initiative and ending up losing 3-2. They need to make major strides forward to stay up and I don't see that being the case just yet against an Arsenal team who have the right style to prosper.
Back Arsenal/Arsenal Half Time/Full Time at 1.9 with Paddy Power. 2 points.
Back Santi Cazorla To Score Anytime at 2.75 with Ladbrokes. 1 point.
Sunderland v Liverpool, Saturday 1730
Two sides who have not started the season in the best form meet at the Stadium Of Light on Saturday evening. To be fair to Sunderland they have played two away matches so far and have not lost so they are not exactly in the doldrums just yet. Martin O'Neill's recent spell at Aston Villa also showed he is more than happy to go for home wins and simply play to not lose away from home so these results are not unexpected either. His sides now seem to rely upon having a physical presence in attack, a solid defence and good set pieces delivery and routines to looks for goals. He was lucky in that sense to inherit Seb Larsson from Steve Bruce at Sunderland as it could be argued that his delivery is amongst the best in the division. The loss of the loan striker Nicklas Bendtner was a blow, but the late addition of Steven Fletcher has gone some way to remedying that. I still think they overpaid for him, but with a debut goal against Swansea in their last match he has again showed he can score at this level. With Liverpool's defence looking shaky and Sunderland happy to let them have benign possession they should be well set up in this one.
Liverpool are yet to spark into life under Brendan Rodgers. The ex-Swansea boss is clearly trying to instigate a whole new tactical approach to the club and naturally this is not reaping immediate rewards. The signing of Joe Allen and his subsequent displays have shown how players need to play to fit in, but some of the old guard don't look up to it. When you look back at Rodgers successful side at Swansea he also relied on quick, direct wide players and this is perhaps the main reason the system is not working. Raheem Sterling has been fast-tracked into the side as he fits those criteria, but at only 17 it is no surprise he is not going to win games on his own. Luis Suarez has also carried over his worrying habit of last season of looking great in the build up, but fluffing his lines in front of goal. It has been over a year of this now and at some point there will have to be a serious look at this for me. Throw in Fabio Borini also not settling well at all and you don't imagine opposing managers are having sleepless nights over Liverpool's attack.
Lay Liverpool at 2.3 on Betfair. 3 points.
Osasuna v Mallorca, Sunday 1700
So far our experiments in laying short priced home favourites in Spain has been a resounding failure. This week I'm going to count on Mallorca, who have started well, finding it difficult at Osasuna. Barring the best of the best noone has an easy game in Osasuna, who are very much the leagues Stoke City in terms of an in your face, physical approach to the game. I think at current prices they're worth a punt.
Back Osasuna at 2.37 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Hannover v Werder Bremen, Saturday 1430
It is still only two matches into the season in Germany and therefore a little tricky to give any strong assessments on teams chances just yet. Even Borussia Dortmund have looked uninspired so far, although they haven't lost. Bayern have stormed away, but in truth they have had a very easy start. Hannover are another side who have started pretty well, as they generally do. They are not a flash side by any means, but they are set up in a simple manner with an organised defence and midfield and physical, pacy forward players. They have opened up with a home draw with a good side Schalke side and then tharshed Wolfsburg 4-0 last time out. The encouraging thing about both of these results is the fact they have already scored six goals as they will certainly get chances against Werder and if players are in confident form then they should get a few. They have established themselves as European spot contenders in recent seasons and will not fear this fixture at all.
Werder Bremen so far have a win and a loss to their name. They beat a poor Hamburg side in their last match and narrowly lost away to Dortmund in their opener. This doesn't really give us much to go on as Hamburg are widely predicted to have a real struggle on their hands this season and Dortmund have hit nothing like their true form yet. They do look to still be continuing with their approach of attack first and defend later and that should leave good sides plenty of room to exploit. I think at these odds you have to be against Werder.
Back Hannover at 2.37 with Boylesports. 2 points.
Greuther Furth v Schalke, Saturday 1730
Greuther Furth were very impressive in beating Mainz away in their last match after losing their baptism of fire against Bayern Munich in their first match back in the top division. Last season they were promoted as champions having only lost twice at home all season and only conceding twelve goals in seventeen home matches. With the Bundesliga 2 often providing high scoring matches and not always concentrating on defending this is a very good record. To concede three goals to a rampant Bayern Munich who are desperate to regain the league title this season is no shame and to bounce back against a good Mainz side shows they have not been left too despondent and have confidence in their own abilities. This will be a tough test though.
Schalke ended last season in fine form in all competitions and a lot of that was due to Klaas-Jan Huntelaar scoring over 30 goals in the league. With Raul enjoying a fine swansong in major competition alongside the Ducthman they had an attack that most sides feared, but the Spaniard has now departed. The problem Huntelaar has encountered since he left Holland for Italy is that he is not a complete forward in the sense he can create and score all on his own, he requires players around him laying the chances on. Do this and he will get a side loads. The loss of Raul may well see the side struggling to match last seasons achievements and for Huntelaar to again cut a frustrated figure. I think they have enough quality left to push towards the higher positions, but wouldn't be entirely shocked to see a season of adjustment.
Lay Schalke at 1.95 on Betfair. 2 points.
Genoa v Juventus, Sunday 1400
The only bet that catches my eye this weekend is Juventus away at Genoa. Having layed Juventus away at Udinese in their last match at a roughly similar price and watch them demolish them this looks a good bet. Genoa enjoyed a few good seasons around five years ago, but they have sold all their good players since and have struggled to stay in Serie A. Nothing they have done over the summer or in their opening matches suggests they have enough to beat the leagues standout side.
Back Juventus at 1.66 with Paddy Power. 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1830
As expected Galatasaray are already at the top of the table after three matches and I would expect them to continue in that position for the season. However comma sitting in joint second so far are Antalyaspor. It would be fair to say that noone would expect Antalya to continue in this position for very long, but their early performances have been excellent. They lost their opener 3-1 away to Genclerbirligi, but Gencler are traditionally strong at home and are capable of picking teams off once ahead. They have won their next two matches with a dominant 3-0 win at home to Kayserispor and also an excellent 1-0 away win at Istanbul BB last time. That match showed that they have come out this year with a much improved defence and these two clean sheets in a row give them something to build on.
Gala have won both their home matches so far and drawn their solitary away match at city rivals Besiktas. Whilst I have already nailed my colours to the mast in predicting they will emerge as champions again due to their shear strength in the squad, they have started with a worrying habit of conceding goals. In three matches they have already conceded six goals and this is probably due to the injury to centre back Tomas Ujfalusi and them missing his experience and organisational skills. He is due to be out for a while so they may well have to rely on scoring more than the opposition until either he returns or the new defence gel better. I think they will be forced into attacking again so this should be another high scorer.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.97 with Bet365. 3 points.
Trabzonspor v Sivasspor, Sunday 1600
Over the summer Trabzonspor lost over half of last seasons goals in the shape of star striker Buruk Yilmaz to rivals Galatasaray. Some have predicted that this will eventually lead to them being a better side as Yilmaz was definitely a selfish player and if the rest of the side can adjust to score more they may well become a better team as a whole. They have been pretty uninspired so far though with a win and two draws and only three goals scored. The defence has continued to perform well, but they clearly have not made up for the loss of Yilmaz in attack. They drew their opener away at Karabukspor, then defeated promoted Elazigspor 2-0 before losing to ten man Gaziantepsor in their last match. They'll be around the European places without doubt, but they looks a very short price on current form.
Sivasspor have looked like they could make something of a breakthrough at various points in the last two seasons. After some dodgy investment they have regrouped as an attacking side in a defensive league and it has reaped rewards on numerous occasions. They have drawn two of three so far, including holding Fenerbahce to a 0-0 draw in their last match to show they have definitely worked on the defensive side of their game. It looks to me as though they have become more mature in their approach and will only now pour forward when given the chance, leaving them much less exposed. They drew 3-3 with Mersin Idman Yurdu, but Mersin are something of an anomaly in Turkey in that they actually attempt to win away from home, so gaps are to be expected. I think this will be a very cagey encounter.
Back Under 2.5 at 2.0 with Boylesports. 3 points.
Week 4 (Internationals)
Albania v Cyprus - lose 2 points.
Montenegro v Poland - lose 2 points.
Netherlands v Turkey - win 4.59 points.
Moldova v England - win 8.64 points.
Colombia v Uruguay - win 5 points.
Russia, England and Netherlands treble - win 5 points.
Win 19.29 points.
Music this week comes from Incubus with Nice To Know You, a bit of a blast from the past.
Arsenal v Southampton, Saturday 1500
Arsenal seem to be splitting opinions so far on whether they are primed for a good season or not. This is perfectly understandable when you take into account Arsenal's traditional strength of attacking and weakness in defence has been completely reversed at the moment. The Gunners are still yet to concede a league goal and the introduction of Steve Bould to the senior coaching set-up seems to have been an excellent decision. The problem has been in attack and the fact that Lukas Podolski and Oliver Giroud are yet to really convince as a pairing. The other major signing of Santi Cazorla already looks at home at Arsenal and is supllying the bullets for the two forwards, but Giroud in particular looks off the pace so far. He is getting in the right positions though so it could be argued that one goal will relieve the burden and see him scoring a few. With that in mind there is probably no better time to be facing a Southampton side who have looked leaky at the back. I can see Santi Cazorla running riot behind the forwards and Arsenal could get a clear victory if they put the inevitable chances away.
Southampton have actually impressed so far, albeit without securing a point. There attack looks good and has seen them scoring twice against both Manchester sides already. The problem lies in the fact their backline is nowhere near the required standard of a Premier League side. I said in my pre-season article that I thought they would struggle to keep sides out if they did not add some quality or experience to their defence and it looks as though I am being proven correct. Manager Nigel Adkins has also not made the right decisions so far and his removal of his three best performers when leading against Manchester United in their last match directly led to them ceding the initiative and ending up losing 3-2. They need to make major strides forward to stay up and I don't see that being the case just yet against an Arsenal team who have the right style to prosper.
Back Arsenal/Arsenal Half Time/Full Time at 1.9 with Paddy Power. 2 points.
Back Santi Cazorla To Score Anytime at 2.75 with Ladbrokes. 1 point.
Sunderland v Liverpool, Saturday 1730
Two sides who have not started the season in the best form meet at the Stadium Of Light on Saturday evening. To be fair to Sunderland they have played two away matches so far and have not lost so they are not exactly in the doldrums just yet. Martin O'Neill's recent spell at Aston Villa also showed he is more than happy to go for home wins and simply play to not lose away from home so these results are not unexpected either. His sides now seem to rely upon having a physical presence in attack, a solid defence and good set pieces delivery and routines to looks for goals. He was lucky in that sense to inherit Seb Larsson from Steve Bruce at Sunderland as it could be argued that his delivery is amongst the best in the division. The loss of the loan striker Nicklas Bendtner was a blow, but the late addition of Steven Fletcher has gone some way to remedying that. I still think they overpaid for him, but with a debut goal against Swansea in their last match he has again showed he can score at this level. With Liverpool's defence looking shaky and Sunderland happy to let them have benign possession they should be well set up in this one.
Liverpool are yet to spark into life under Brendan Rodgers. The ex-Swansea boss is clearly trying to instigate a whole new tactical approach to the club and naturally this is not reaping immediate rewards. The signing of Joe Allen and his subsequent displays have shown how players need to play to fit in, but some of the old guard don't look up to it. When you look back at Rodgers successful side at Swansea he also relied on quick, direct wide players and this is perhaps the main reason the system is not working. Raheem Sterling has been fast-tracked into the side as he fits those criteria, but at only 17 it is no surprise he is not going to win games on his own. Luis Suarez has also carried over his worrying habit of last season of looking great in the build up, but fluffing his lines in front of goal. It has been over a year of this now and at some point there will have to be a serious look at this for me. Throw in Fabio Borini also not settling well at all and you don't imagine opposing managers are having sleepless nights over Liverpool's attack.
Lay Liverpool at 2.3 on Betfair. 3 points.
Osasuna v Mallorca, Sunday 1700
So far our experiments in laying short priced home favourites in Spain has been a resounding failure. This week I'm going to count on Mallorca, who have started well, finding it difficult at Osasuna. Barring the best of the best noone has an easy game in Osasuna, who are very much the leagues Stoke City in terms of an in your face, physical approach to the game. I think at current prices they're worth a punt.
Back Osasuna at 2.37 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Hannover v Werder Bremen, Saturday 1430
It is still only two matches into the season in Germany and therefore a little tricky to give any strong assessments on teams chances just yet. Even Borussia Dortmund have looked uninspired so far, although they haven't lost. Bayern have stormed away, but in truth they have had a very easy start. Hannover are another side who have started pretty well, as they generally do. They are not a flash side by any means, but they are set up in a simple manner with an organised defence and midfield and physical, pacy forward players. They have opened up with a home draw with a good side Schalke side and then tharshed Wolfsburg 4-0 last time out. The encouraging thing about both of these results is the fact they have already scored six goals as they will certainly get chances against Werder and if players are in confident form then they should get a few. They have established themselves as European spot contenders in recent seasons and will not fear this fixture at all.
Werder Bremen so far have a win and a loss to their name. They beat a poor Hamburg side in their last match and narrowly lost away to Dortmund in their opener. This doesn't really give us much to go on as Hamburg are widely predicted to have a real struggle on their hands this season and Dortmund have hit nothing like their true form yet. They do look to still be continuing with their approach of attack first and defend later and that should leave good sides plenty of room to exploit. I think at these odds you have to be against Werder.
Back Hannover at 2.37 with Boylesports. 2 points.
Greuther Furth v Schalke, Saturday 1730
Greuther Furth were very impressive in beating Mainz away in their last match after losing their baptism of fire against Bayern Munich in their first match back in the top division. Last season they were promoted as champions having only lost twice at home all season and only conceding twelve goals in seventeen home matches. With the Bundesliga 2 often providing high scoring matches and not always concentrating on defending this is a very good record. To concede three goals to a rampant Bayern Munich who are desperate to regain the league title this season is no shame and to bounce back against a good Mainz side shows they have not been left too despondent and have confidence in their own abilities. This will be a tough test though.
Schalke ended last season in fine form in all competitions and a lot of that was due to Klaas-Jan Huntelaar scoring over 30 goals in the league. With Raul enjoying a fine swansong in major competition alongside the Ducthman they had an attack that most sides feared, but the Spaniard has now departed. The problem Huntelaar has encountered since he left Holland for Italy is that he is not a complete forward in the sense he can create and score all on his own, he requires players around him laying the chances on. Do this and he will get a side loads. The loss of Raul may well see the side struggling to match last seasons achievements and for Huntelaar to again cut a frustrated figure. I think they have enough quality left to push towards the higher positions, but wouldn't be entirely shocked to see a season of adjustment.
Lay Schalke at 1.95 on Betfair. 2 points.
Genoa v Juventus, Sunday 1400
The only bet that catches my eye this weekend is Juventus away at Genoa. Having layed Juventus away at Udinese in their last match at a roughly similar price and watch them demolish them this looks a good bet. Genoa enjoyed a few good seasons around five years ago, but they have sold all their good players since and have struggled to stay in Serie A. Nothing they have done over the summer or in their opening matches suggests they have enough to beat the leagues standout side.
Back Juventus at 1.66 with Paddy Power. 3 points.
Antalyaspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1830
As expected Galatasaray are already at the top of the table after three matches and I would expect them to continue in that position for the season. However comma sitting in joint second so far are Antalyaspor. It would be fair to say that noone would expect Antalya to continue in this position for very long, but their early performances have been excellent. They lost their opener 3-1 away to Genclerbirligi, but Gencler are traditionally strong at home and are capable of picking teams off once ahead. They have won their next two matches with a dominant 3-0 win at home to Kayserispor and also an excellent 1-0 away win at Istanbul BB last time. That match showed that they have come out this year with a much improved defence and these two clean sheets in a row give them something to build on.
Gala have won both their home matches so far and drawn their solitary away match at city rivals Besiktas. Whilst I have already nailed my colours to the mast in predicting they will emerge as champions again due to their shear strength in the squad, they have started with a worrying habit of conceding goals. In three matches they have already conceded six goals and this is probably due to the injury to centre back Tomas Ujfalusi and them missing his experience and organisational skills. He is due to be out for a while so they may well have to rely on scoring more than the opposition until either he returns or the new defence gel better. I think they will be forced into attacking again so this should be another high scorer.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.97 with Bet365. 3 points.
Trabzonspor v Sivasspor, Sunday 1600
Over the summer Trabzonspor lost over half of last seasons goals in the shape of star striker Buruk Yilmaz to rivals Galatasaray. Some have predicted that this will eventually lead to them being a better side as Yilmaz was definitely a selfish player and if the rest of the side can adjust to score more they may well become a better team as a whole. They have been pretty uninspired so far though with a win and two draws and only three goals scored. The defence has continued to perform well, but they clearly have not made up for the loss of Yilmaz in attack. They drew their opener away at Karabukspor, then defeated promoted Elazigspor 2-0 before losing to ten man Gaziantepsor in their last match. They'll be around the European places without doubt, but they looks a very short price on current form.
Sivasspor have looked like they could make something of a breakthrough at various points in the last two seasons. After some dodgy investment they have regrouped as an attacking side in a defensive league and it has reaped rewards on numerous occasions. They have drawn two of three so far, including holding Fenerbahce to a 0-0 draw in their last match to show they have definitely worked on the defensive side of their game. It looks to me as though they have become more mature in their approach and will only now pour forward when given the chance, leaving them much less exposed. They drew 3-3 with Mersin Idman Yurdu, but Mersin are something of an anomaly in Turkey in that they actually attempt to win away from home, so gaps are to be expected. I think this will be a very cagey encounter.
Back Under 2.5 at 2.0 with Boylesports. 3 points.
Thursday, 6 September 2012
The Road To Rio (and other Brazilian cities)...
Last weekend then, not brilliant sadly! Let's see exactly where we stand...
Week 3
Swansea v Sunderland - lose 2 points.
West Brom v Everton - lose 2 points.
Liverpool v Arsenal - win 4.1 points.
Mallorca v Real Sociedad - lose 1 point.
Udinese v Juventus - lose 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Hamburg - win 5.5 points.
Karabukspor v Besiktas - lose 1 points.
Sivasspor v Fenerbahce - lose 2 points.
An overall loss of 0.4 points this week, not actually that bad considering only two winners were had. This is the benefit to having a staking plan really. The Werder Bremen result was definitely my favourite bet, hence 3 points going on it, and has saved us from a pretty terrible weekend really.
It's international World Cup 2014 qualifiers this weekend. It's sometimes difficult to offer any great odds on these matches, particularly when sides like San Marino are included in European qualifying zones so I my throw in some multiples to liven the weekend up. Similarly if I see a price that is short, but still offers good value, in my opinion, then that will be included.
Music is a request this week from a colleague attending Bestival for his birthday. Have some Stevie Wonder with Signed, Sealed, Delivered, I'm Yours. A cracking tune that even the heinous boyband Blue couldn't ruin when they somehow roped old Stevie into letting them join him on re-release!
Albania v Cyprus, Friday 1930
The first one that grabs me odds-wise is the match between Albania and emerging Cyprus. Albania finished second bottom to Luxembourg in their qualifying group for Euro 2012 and failed to even beat Luxembourg when away. The national league is nothing to write home about at all and has not had a side make the group stages of the Europa League in a long time. There are no players of any note that I know about either who would possibly come in and be the teams focus to drag them to the odd result. They were a decent match for every side when they were at home, but their lack of goals showed when they could only beat Luxembourg 1-0. I would suggest that most sides in their group were on the decline and even their less than brilliant record isn't as good as it seems.
Cypriot football has had something of a boost in the last few years. The miracle that saw APOEL Nicosia qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League was the culmination of a steady upward curve in the club sides. The national team have not fared so well, they finished bottom of their Euro 2012 qualifying group without a win to their name, but it was a tough group. They had a good Portugal side as well as the Scandinavian sides of Denmark, Norway and Iceland to contend with. I doubt very much whether Albania would have done any better. This forms the basis of me thinking Albania at odds on seems very tight and a price I'm happy to have a go at laying.
Lay Albania at 1.9 on Betfair. 2 points.
Montenegro v Poland, Friday 1930
Those of you following my Euro 2012 disaster will have seen how much I fancied Poland to do well and then how disappointing they were in reality. Montenegro did not qualify for the tournament as they lost out in the play-offs having finished behind England in their group. They were unbeaten at home though and won two and lost two of their four home matches. They do lack a prolific goalscorer at present and this will probably see them once again struggling to qualify automatically, but they are not easy to beat. They only conceded three goals in four home matches in the qualifiers and two of those were to England. They have the usual share of gnarled defenders and skilful midfielders that always seem to come from that region and they should be able to hold off Poland.
As mentioned above, Poland were a huge let down hosting Euro 2012. In every match you could see there was some ability there, but they could not maintain a level of performance to qualify from the easiest group on paper. Robert Lewandowski possibly played his way out of a move to a bigger side than Dortmund as he looked clumsy for the most part and failed to spark, even as the focal point of his sides attack. The wide players looked excellent in spells and there was no shortage of work rate from the centre of midfield, but the defence was terrible. A Greece side that had been thrashed by Russia in their opening match were made to look much better than they are by the defending of Poland. After all this the coach Smuda paid for the disappointment with his job and I doubt whether the new man has had time to truly shape his side. They look best avoided in this.
Back Montenegro at 2.4 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Netherlands v Turkey, Friday 1930
This one is the first of two short prices that I still think represent value. The Netherlands were probably the single biggest let down of the entire Euro 2012 having failed to win a single match in their group and returning home early. With the likes of Robin Van Persie, Wesley Sneijder and Klaas Jan Huntelaar in the squad they should never have been as poor as they were. This has seen the removal of coach Bert Van Maarwijk as his tactics and decision to persist with starting a clearly off the pace Ibrahim Affelay certainly had a massive effect on the sides exit. They have brought in the extremely experienced Louis Van Gaal now and this should see them restored to the form that saw them qualify for the tournament unbeaten except in their last match, by which time they had qualified. Whether he will bring many new faces straight into the side is debatable, but he will get more out of them.
Turkey were expected to kick on after an appearance in the 2002 World Cup Semi Finals, but never have. It could probably be argued they have gone backwards and there is a large campaign gathering pace to impose penalties on them for the state of their club game. This relates to the fact Fenerbahce were proven to have fixed matches two seasons ago and then simply pardoned with a slap on the wrist. This bad press has not helped attract players to the country, apart from those coming to the end of their career looking to take advantage of large tax-free contracts on offer. This in turn does not help as local players are marginalised for players who clearly are not putting everything into their game. This all being said they do often score plenty and have two strikers at Galatasaray in great form domestically. Buruk Yilmaz was signed after scoring thirty two goals last season for Trabzonspor to almost single handedly drag them up the table. He can't even get a starting spot at the moment though as the on-loan Umur Bulut has scored more than a goal a game so far. I'd expect them to attack as their defence is terrible, but I don't give them a hope of avoiding defeat so I think the price is good.
Back Netherlands at 1.53 with Coral. 3 points.
Moldova v England, Friday 1945
After another knockout stage exit for England at a major tournament there's a new apathy around the team. They start this qualification group by travelling to minnows Moldova and will expect to qualify with ease as they usually do (I'll conveniently forget the McClaren debacle). There's no reason this shouldn't happen with the group they're in. Moldova actually won two home matches in the Euro 2012 qualifiers, although one was against the ever horrendous San Marino. The other win came against a Finland side who have been declining for years, so whilst a good result it is probably not a sign of Moldovan improvement. They actually only really took a hiding from Sweden at home, getting beaten 4-1, they even restricted Netherlands to 1-0 wins home and away. They're clearly not an awful team and are set up to defend their goal in numbers and hope for draws against sides like England. But, they don't usually get any points from this approach, even if they can take some pride in restricting goals conceded.
England now enter the Hodgson era properly and he is in a position many previous managers of the national side would envy, with expectations widely at an all time low. This being said, he will still be expected to qualify with ease for the tournament in Brazil. He is without Andy Carroll and Wayne Rooney for this match after they suffered injuries in recent matches, but other than that and long term injuries it is a full squad. The lack of strikers would be a worry against stronger opposition, but with Jermaine Defoe starting again at Tottenham and forwards like Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Theo Walcott at Arsenal they should have no problem seeing off Moldova. I don't see Moldova scoring and I fail to see how England will not.
Back England at 1.3 with Stan James. 4 points.
Back England Clean Sheet at 1.72 on Betfair. 2 points.
Colombia v Uruguay, Friday 2130
Two of the traditional best of the rest in South America meet on Friday evening in Colombia. There is a clear bias towards home teams in results in South America in both the Copa Libertadores and the Copa Sudamerica as well as in international matches. Colombia are building a team somewhat in the image of the Uruguyan side who have so impressed at the last World Cup and then in winning the Copa America last year. They have possibly the hottest proper striker in football in Radamel Falcao of Atletico Madrid who scored a hat-trick against Chelsea in the UEFA Super Cup a week ago in Monaco. He has all the attributes to lead a line and Colombia are now set up to provide him with as many chances as possible whilst restricting the other side as much as possible.
Uruguay have probably peaked in their current incarnation and are now on the decline. They will also be missing Luis Suarez for this match and regardless of his Liverpool form, he is always a standout player for the national side. They do still have the other brilliant striker in world football in Napoli's Edinson Cavani, but his service will be limited without Suarez and with Diego Forlan finally succumbing to age. The new Southampton signing from Bolgona, Gaston Ramirez, is a fine player, but he has yet to do anything of note for the national team. The defence and midfield will again be organised, but even they are either older and poorer or out of good form of late.
Back Colombia at 2.5 with BetFred. 2 points.
Multiple - Treble
I would suggest throwing Russia, England and Netherlands into a short priced treble. None of these sides should have too much trouble seeing off their opponents. You should get odds of around 2.5 for that.
Week 3
Swansea v Sunderland - lose 2 points.
West Brom v Everton - lose 2 points.
Liverpool v Arsenal - win 4.1 points.
Mallorca v Real Sociedad - lose 1 point.
Udinese v Juventus - lose 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Hamburg - win 5.5 points.
Karabukspor v Besiktas - lose 1 points.
Sivasspor v Fenerbahce - lose 2 points.
An overall loss of 0.4 points this week, not actually that bad considering only two winners were had. This is the benefit to having a staking plan really. The Werder Bremen result was definitely my favourite bet, hence 3 points going on it, and has saved us from a pretty terrible weekend really.
It's international World Cup 2014 qualifiers this weekend. It's sometimes difficult to offer any great odds on these matches, particularly when sides like San Marino are included in European qualifying zones so I my throw in some multiples to liven the weekend up. Similarly if I see a price that is short, but still offers good value, in my opinion, then that will be included.
Music is a request this week from a colleague attending Bestival for his birthday. Have some Stevie Wonder with Signed, Sealed, Delivered, I'm Yours. A cracking tune that even the heinous boyband Blue couldn't ruin when they somehow roped old Stevie into letting them join him on re-release!
Albania v Cyprus, Friday 1930
The first one that grabs me odds-wise is the match between Albania and emerging Cyprus. Albania finished second bottom to Luxembourg in their qualifying group for Euro 2012 and failed to even beat Luxembourg when away. The national league is nothing to write home about at all and has not had a side make the group stages of the Europa League in a long time. There are no players of any note that I know about either who would possibly come in and be the teams focus to drag them to the odd result. They were a decent match for every side when they were at home, but their lack of goals showed when they could only beat Luxembourg 1-0. I would suggest that most sides in their group were on the decline and even their less than brilliant record isn't as good as it seems.
Cypriot football has had something of a boost in the last few years. The miracle that saw APOEL Nicosia qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League was the culmination of a steady upward curve in the club sides. The national team have not fared so well, they finished bottom of their Euro 2012 qualifying group without a win to their name, but it was a tough group. They had a good Portugal side as well as the Scandinavian sides of Denmark, Norway and Iceland to contend with. I doubt very much whether Albania would have done any better. This forms the basis of me thinking Albania at odds on seems very tight and a price I'm happy to have a go at laying.
Lay Albania at 1.9 on Betfair. 2 points.
Montenegro v Poland, Friday 1930
Those of you following my Euro 2012 disaster will have seen how much I fancied Poland to do well and then how disappointing they were in reality. Montenegro did not qualify for the tournament as they lost out in the play-offs having finished behind England in their group. They were unbeaten at home though and won two and lost two of their four home matches. They do lack a prolific goalscorer at present and this will probably see them once again struggling to qualify automatically, but they are not easy to beat. They only conceded three goals in four home matches in the qualifiers and two of those were to England. They have the usual share of gnarled defenders and skilful midfielders that always seem to come from that region and they should be able to hold off Poland.
As mentioned above, Poland were a huge let down hosting Euro 2012. In every match you could see there was some ability there, but they could not maintain a level of performance to qualify from the easiest group on paper. Robert Lewandowski possibly played his way out of a move to a bigger side than Dortmund as he looked clumsy for the most part and failed to spark, even as the focal point of his sides attack. The wide players looked excellent in spells and there was no shortage of work rate from the centre of midfield, but the defence was terrible. A Greece side that had been thrashed by Russia in their opening match were made to look much better than they are by the defending of Poland. After all this the coach Smuda paid for the disappointment with his job and I doubt whether the new man has had time to truly shape his side. They look best avoided in this.
Back Montenegro at 2.4 with BetVictor. 1 point.
Netherlands v Turkey, Friday 1930
This one is the first of two short prices that I still think represent value. The Netherlands were probably the single biggest let down of the entire Euro 2012 having failed to win a single match in their group and returning home early. With the likes of Robin Van Persie, Wesley Sneijder and Klaas Jan Huntelaar in the squad they should never have been as poor as they were. This has seen the removal of coach Bert Van Maarwijk as his tactics and decision to persist with starting a clearly off the pace Ibrahim Affelay certainly had a massive effect on the sides exit. They have brought in the extremely experienced Louis Van Gaal now and this should see them restored to the form that saw them qualify for the tournament unbeaten except in their last match, by which time they had qualified. Whether he will bring many new faces straight into the side is debatable, but he will get more out of them.
Turkey were expected to kick on after an appearance in the 2002 World Cup Semi Finals, but never have. It could probably be argued they have gone backwards and there is a large campaign gathering pace to impose penalties on them for the state of their club game. This relates to the fact Fenerbahce were proven to have fixed matches two seasons ago and then simply pardoned with a slap on the wrist. This bad press has not helped attract players to the country, apart from those coming to the end of their career looking to take advantage of large tax-free contracts on offer. This in turn does not help as local players are marginalised for players who clearly are not putting everything into their game. This all being said they do often score plenty and have two strikers at Galatasaray in great form domestically. Buruk Yilmaz was signed after scoring thirty two goals last season for Trabzonspor to almost single handedly drag them up the table. He can't even get a starting spot at the moment though as the on-loan Umur Bulut has scored more than a goal a game so far. I'd expect them to attack as their defence is terrible, but I don't give them a hope of avoiding defeat so I think the price is good.
Back Netherlands at 1.53 with Coral. 3 points.
Moldova v England, Friday 1945
After another knockout stage exit for England at a major tournament there's a new apathy around the team. They start this qualification group by travelling to minnows Moldova and will expect to qualify with ease as they usually do (I'll conveniently forget the McClaren debacle). There's no reason this shouldn't happen with the group they're in. Moldova actually won two home matches in the Euro 2012 qualifiers, although one was against the ever horrendous San Marino. The other win came against a Finland side who have been declining for years, so whilst a good result it is probably not a sign of Moldovan improvement. They actually only really took a hiding from Sweden at home, getting beaten 4-1, they even restricted Netherlands to 1-0 wins home and away. They're clearly not an awful team and are set up to defend their goal in numbers and hope for draws against sides like England. But, they don't usually get any points from this approach, even if they can take some pride in restricting goals conceded.
England now enter the Hodgson era properly and he is in a position many previous managers of the national side would envy, with expectations widely at an all time low. This being said, he will still be expected to qualify with ease for the tournament in Brazil. He is without Andy Carroll and Wayne Rooney for this match after they suffered injuries in recent matches, but other than that and long term injuries it is a full squad. The lack of strikers would be a worry against stronger opposition, but with Jermaine Defoe starting again at Tottenham and forwards like Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Theo Walcott at Arsenal they should have no problem seeing off Moldova. I don't see Moldova scoring and I fail to see how England will not.
Back England at 1.3 with Stan James. 4 points.
Back England Clean Sheet at 1.72 on Betfair. 2 points.
Colombia v Uruguay, Friday 2130
Two of the traditional best of the rest in South America meet on Friday evening in Colombia. There is a clear bias towards home teams in results in South America in both the Copa Libertadores and the Copa Sudamerica as well as in international matches. Colombia are building a team somewhat in the image of the Uruguyan side who have so impressed at the last World Cup and then in winning the Copa America last year. They have possibly the hottest proper striker in football in Radamel Falcao of Atletico Madrid who scored a hat-trick against Chelsea in the UEFA Super Cup a week ago in Monaco. He has all the attributes to lead a line and Colombia are now set up to provide him with as many chances as possible whilst restricting the other side as much as possible.
Uruguay have probably peaked in their current incarnation and are now on the decline. They will also be missing Luis Suarez for this match and regardless of his Liverpool form, he is always a standout player for the national side. They do still have the other brilliant striker in world football in Napoli's Edinson Cavani, but his service will be limited without Suarez and with Diego Forlan finally succumbing to age. The new Southampton signing from Bolgona, Gaston Ramirez, is a fine player, but he has yet to do anything of note for the national team. The defence and midfield will again be organised, but even they are either older and poorer or out of good form of late.
Back Colombia at 2.5 with BetFred. 2 points.
Multiple - Treble
I would suggest throwing Russia, England and Netherlands into a short priced treble. None of these sides should have too much trouble seeing off their opponents. You should get odds of around 2.5 for that.
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