Another weekend and sadly again no massive gains were forthcoming. I stand by the fact that Hannover 96 represented excellent value at 2.4, they kicked off at a general 2.1, but an early sending off hurt that one. As I have mentioned before, betting is not an exact science, it's gambling after all! The key is that you never bet more than you can afford to lose. It is also dictated by results. If you take a scan back over the almost 3 years of tips on my blog you will see gains have been made and I certainly still think I have an eye for a value bet. Over time these will come good. That Hannover 96 lost does not make it a bad bet.
Music from Lucero with Last Night In Town.
Week 5
Liverpool v West Brom - Lose 2 points.
Manchester United v Stoke City - Win 1.94 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Valladolid - Lose 2 points.
Juventus v Genoa - VOID
Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim - Lose 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt - Win 2.3 points.
Lorient v Sochaux - Lose 2 points.
St Etienne v Paris SG - Lose 2 points.
Weekly Totals - Lose 5.74 points.
Running Total - Lose 17.88 points.
Arsenal v Liverpool, Saturday 1730
Before the season started not many people would have predicted how big this game would have been at the top of the table. However comma both sides have started the season very well and go into this match looking to prove points about how improved they are. Arsenal's very late signing of Mesut Ozil has seemingly given them a huge boost, as well as a player I consider to be one of the world's very best. The 'defensive issues' often commented on are nowhere near as bad as they've been made out, even last season Arsenal had one of the best defensive records in the Premier League. There is a lot of experience in the first choice back four of Bacary Sagna, Per Mertesacker, Laurent Koscielny and Kieran Gibbs. With Wojciech Szczesny also looking like he has added a maturity to his goalkeeping ability it's a great backbone. The midfield looks a lot stronger for the return of Mathieu Flamini too. The Frenchman isn't a Patrick Vieira type, but he is relentless and also adds a commanding voice where one has often lacked. With the calm passing and attacking link-up of Mikel Arteta and Aaron Ramsey alongside it's an excellent midfield. A frontline of Mesut Ozil, Santi Cazorla and Olivier Giroud looks perfectly rounded too.
Liverpool have come on in leaps and bounds under Brendan Rodgers, despite initial doubts about whether he had the necessary experience to cope. He has been fortunate to inherit a striker of the class of Luis Suarez, but has added to the side well, although they are far from complete to my eyes. Simon Mignolet is a decent goalkeeper, but no more for me. The back four can also look pondersome and lacks genuine pace, although Mamadou Sakho should help with that once fully settled. Rodgers hasn't really played a good side since re-integrating Suarez though and this will see the side fully tested. The current system is set-up to get the best out of Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, but gives away an awful lot of chances at the back. I think Arsenal are well placed to take advantage of those gaps.
Back Arsenal at 2.33 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Everton v Tottenham, Sunday 1330
Two sides who changed an awful lot over the summer meet at Goodison Park on Sunday. Everton moved to replace David Moyes with Roberto Martinez as manager. I was one of a few who were dubious about how well Martinez would do given that he had just taken Wigan down and had never got the defence right at all in his time there. So far he has injected a new liveliness to Everton's play that they had lacked under Moyes and is doing very well, their best start in many years. His signings of James McCarthy permanently and Gareth Barry and Romelu Lukaku on loan have been brilliant. McCarthy adds workrate and bite to midfield, Barry is a steady influence and seems to have a new lease of life and Lukaku is again making a mockery of Chelsea's continued willingness to let him out on loan. They are currently unbeaten at home with three wins and a draw. With Kevin Mirallas also looking a more regularly impressive performer Everton look one of the best sides at present. I'm not sold on Tottenham's defence and with Lukaku netting five in his last five I think Everton have a great opportunity here.
Tottenham are not quite firing on all cylinders under Andre Villas Boas yet. I think they did incredibly well to get so much money for Gareth Bale and have reinvested wisely, but the team has yet to gel. This is hardly surprising, but there are murmurs of discontent already. This atmosphere doesn't help and adds pressure to the players. I see a huge problem as the striker. Tottenham have plenty of options in midfield and behind the striker, but Roberto Soldado doesn't look the right man to be at the peak to me. He is not big enough to hold the ball up and doesn't contribute defensively, he's a poacher more than anything. There's nothing wrong with that in the right system, but I think Tottenham would be much better served by a player like Romelu Lukaku and his attributes. Tottenham's lack of goals and 120 minutes of Carling Cup action last night make Everton's price look appealing to me.
Back Everton Draw No Bet at 1.85 with MarathonBet. 2 points.
Real Betis v Levante, Thursday 2100
This one really does stand out to me at the odds. Real Betis returned to La Liga last season and ended up surviving fairly easily, almost qualifying for European football. In Spain though this can easily happen with the difference between sides other than the big three all much of a muchness. A good or bad run for five or so matches can see a side above the relegation spots suddenly look like a top seven side. This season Betis find themselves second bottom with only two wins in ten. They have both come at home, where they go won two, drawn one and lost two with six scored and five conceded. They're not winning by much and that could easily go against them.
Levante are again confounding expectations and looking towards European qualification. They are no different to a lot of sides in Spain in that they have an exceptionally limited budget, but they have a track record of good investment. It again looks like they have got a side that's tough to beat and in fact have a superior away record so far, they have actually only lost twice all season so far and that was to Real Madrid and Barcelona. Away from home they have won three, drawn one and lost one with six scored and ten conceded. Take away the opening day defeat away at Barcelona and that's three wins and a draw with six scored and just three conceded. They look a great option here.
Lay Real Betis at 2.04 on Betfair. 2 points.
Almeria v Real Valladolid, Saturday 1700
Almeria look like this seasons certainties for relegation. They've never exactly set the division alight, but have started horrendously and look well short of the quality required to get up the table.So far they have only won one match, although that was an impressive 2-1 win away at Valencia last weekend. They've actually not struggled for goals either, but are conceding at an alarming rate and have yet to keep a clean sheet. At home they have drawn two and lost three for an aggregate of minus four goals.
Real Valladolid showed up at Rayo Vallecano last Friday night and ruined our first bet of the weekend. Rayo are another side who leave gaps all other the pitch as they like to attack and Valladolid picked them off ruthlessly. Once Rayo were chasing the game they hit them for a 3-0 away win. I don't see this Almeria side as particularly different so they look a short price to me for a win.
Lay Almeria at 2.2 on Betfair. 2 points.
AC Milan v Fiorentina, Saturday 1945
AC Milan are again looking very unlikely to make any sort of title challenge under Massimo Allegri. That's not to say the Italian is doing a bad job as manager, it's just an effect of the cost cutting that has gone on in the past two seasons. It now also looks like Mario Balotelli has possibly got the hump following a sending off and early removal in quick succession and his agents comments this week talking up a January move. Whilst he's certainly a loose cannon and possibly trouble, he's the best player AC have for me. The side look much better when he plays well, particularly with Stephen El Sharaawy currently out of form and the starting eleven. This can be seen in one win in the last four matches without Balotelli playing well and I can't have them at such short odds against a good side.
Fiorentina have become a very entertaining side under the management of Vincenzo Montella. They are up to fifth at this early stage and look the best side besides Roma, Napoli and Juventus to me. They have only lost twice so far and just once away, where they currently have an enviable record of won three, drawn one and lost one. This has been achieved whilst scoring ten and conceding five to show that Montella lets his side play their football and go for goals even on the road. AC Milan are in the doldrums and I expect Fiorentina to make things very tough for them.
Lay AC Milan at 2.14 on Betfair. 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Stuttgart, Friday 1930
Ok, ok, it's not a particularly inventive bet to start off in Germany. However, it cannot be ignored how well both Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich are currently playing. In this case it's Dortmund I am looking at. Jurgen Klopp may have lost one of Europe's hottest atatcking midfielders to Munich this summer in Mario Gotze, but to show his club's current brilliance they seem to have improved the side when reinvesting the 37 million Euro's they received. Plenty of clubs were looking at Henrikh Mkhitaryan of Shakhtar Donetsk, but Dortmund bought him in and have been rewarded with his continued goalscoring and a work-rate which fits right into the Dortmund style of play. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang was a good striker for St Etienne in France, but Klopp saw potential for the lightning quick forward and he has added a great new element to the side when coming off the bench or starting when Robert Lewandowski needs a rest. They won the derby away at Schalke in fine style last weekend and look great at present.
Stuttgart have started a little better than in recent seasons and are currently in eight position in the Bundesliga, which is roughly where I would have them in the overall standings. They have been slightly better away from home with a record of won two, drawn one and lost two so far with eleven scored and eight conceded. They so seem happier to go for a win when away, but this will play right into Dortmund's hands if they continue with that approach. I see an easy win for Dortmund so will play the handicaps.
Back Borussia Dortmund -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.38 with MarathonBet. 2 points.
Hertha Berlin v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
Hertha Berlin returned to the Bundesliga this season and have looked like a very good side so far. Last weekend they gave Bayern Munich probably their toughest game so far when taking a 1-0 lead into half time and only narrowly losing 3-2 in the end. At home so far they have an excellent record of won four and lost just once with eleven scored and three conceded. This shows how good their defence has been and with over two goals a game scored too that's a fantastic record. The forward line of Ronny, Adrian Ramos and the two Tunisians Anis Ben-Hatira and Sami Allagui have scored fourteen between them so far to show how well they operate as a unit.
Schalke 04 have been very up and down so far and seem to be struggling to keep everyone at peak playing powers every week. Injuries have so far robbed them of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and Jefferson Farfan and the experience they also bring. In certain matches the youthful exuberance and skills of Julian Draxler or the sheer force of Kevin Prince-Boateng have pulled them through, but both of these players look tired already and in need of a proper rest. They were not good at all last weekend in the derby and have an identical record of won two, drawn one and lost two both home and away so far. I think they may well get worse before they get better and Hertha look an attractive price here.
Back Hertha Berlin at 2.5 with SpreadEX. 2 points.
OGC Nice v Bordeaux, Sunday 1300
Last weekends first look at France was not a success, but I am going to persist with it for now to see if there's much value to be had in a league not many bet on in the UK. There is a lack of goals which means that draws are at a lower price than in many countries, but equally this should lead to larger odds on either side to win. Therefore if you can find a good bet you may well be getting a slight advantage. OGC Nice have come on the last couple of seasons to be one of the better sides in Ligue Un when discounting the monied Paris SG and Monaco. Home form is particularly important to them and so far they go played five, won four and drawn one with no losses and ten scored with just three conceded. This average of two goals for them per game is the reason I am interested in the bet.
Bordeaux are a long time past their title victory under current Paris SG manager Laurent Blanc. Most of the players that excelled that season were sold on and Bordeaux have returned to being a mid-table side with a small budget. They are currently in fourteenth position in the table and have an atrocious record on their travels. They haven't won away in five matches, having drawn four and lost once. They have scored seven and conceded eight in those matches. It could be argued that they are not losing, and that is something, but I think they're tight odds when Nice have such a good home record.
Back OGC Nice at 2.55 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Bursaspor v Fenerbahce, Saturday 1700
Bursaspor have again had trouble scoring in the Super Lig so far. Turkey's league is generally a low scoring affair outside of the Istanbul three anyway, but Bursaspor stand out as particularly poor considering their resources and relatively recent title victory. In their first nine matches they have only scored eight times to show just how much they are struggling. At home they have only won once, drawing three and also losing once. Three goals in those four matches is just not good enough at all. They are not conceding many so far, but when they did meet an in-form Besiktas they conceded three goals. It should be borne in mind that they are on a three match winning streak without conceding, but these were all against far lesser opponents than Fenerbahce.
Fenerbahce look like the side to beat at this stage of the Super Lig. Besiktas started well, but have already fallen away slightly to leave Fener four points clear at the top at present. They have a well balanced side, having learnt from the past mistakes of bringing in big names and loads of attackers without any particular idea of how to fit them into a functioning team. The only match they have lost so far was on the opening day to Konyaspor away and it's also the only away match they haven't won so far. Since then they have won three away matches, scoring six and conceding three. Bursaspor should provide a stiffer challenge, but I don't see them getting a win.
Lay Bursaspor at 3.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Thursday, 31 October 2013
Thursday, 24 October 2013
Onwards and upwards...
Sorry about the pause in blogs, but I have been in the midst of seeking gainful employment so have been a bit distracted. The last blog up was also the last weekend of domestic action after a break to finish the World Cup 2014 qualifying the world over. Sadly for us I again posted a loss. I would say I have been slightly behind in the changing of the guard in a few countries so far and am now hoping that I have got properly on top of where I believe teams are in the grand scheme of things now. This should lead to a more profitable blog, although I will still say that nearly all my tips have been at better odds than kick off and we have seen an absurd number of goals in the last five minutes of matches costing winning bets!
Music from Ben Nichols with Toadvine, yet more alt-country!
Week 4
Cardiff City v Newcastle United - Lose 2 points.
Hull City v Aston Villa - Win 1.2 points.
Levante v Real Madrid - Win 1.8 points.
Inter Milan v Roma - Lose 2 points.
Udinese v Cagliari - Win 1.94 points.
Hannover 96 v Hertha Berlin - Lose 3 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor- Lose 2 points.
Weekly Totals - Lose 5.06 points.
Running Total - Lose 12.14 points.
Liverpool v West Brom, Saturday 1500
Lets's return to an old theme for the first up. Liverpool seemed to be set at more realistic prices at the end of last season, but it seems a decent start to this season has seen silly ones returning. I personally think Liverpool are building a decent side, albeit slowly. Their forward pairing of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge backed up by Phillipe Coutinho is very strong and their defence looks much more solid. I am not at all sold on new signing Simon Mignolet in goal as yet, nor am I particularly impressed by the midfield in the main. They are narrowly winning games at the moment, and that's no bad thing, but they don't look miles ahead of anyone to me, which is what the odds here would suggest. Pricing them up at a general 1.4 should really indicate they're going to have a pretty easy time of it against West Brom. Something to bear in mind is that Liverpool have tired in every match so far and have not 'won' a second half all season. If they can be frustrated then they can be stopped.
West Brom have again shown themselves to be a very decent Premier League side under the management of Steve Clarke. They have also made an excellent signing in Morgan Amalfitano and also brought the exciting striker Saido Berahino into the squad. Both these players have excelled in attacking positions and somewhat eased the worry about missing last seasons loan star Romelu Lukaku up front. Clarke was always an excellent number two and seemed to improve the tactical and organisational sides of clubs he worked for and seems to be carrying that on at WBA. I would actually fancy him, of most Premier League managers, to set up a side to contain Liverpool. Due to the odds being so low on Liverpool though I am going to give us a handicap to help.
Back West Brom +1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.4 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Manchester United v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
As I mentioned in my last blog, I think Manchester United are currently suffering from the same short prices Liverpool have previously. They are clearly still a good side under David Moyes, with some very talented players, but they are not as good as the odds would suggest. The main problem I see with the odds is that Moyes is an inherently cautious manager at present and this is holding the side back from pushing on to get a comfortable lead in matches. Their last match was a perfect example of this with Southampton not being killed off and snatching a late equaliser at Old Trafford. A side with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Robin Van Persie, Shinji Kagawa and also Nani, Antonio Valencia, Javier Hernandez and more should not be struggling to score goals, but they are. You can then throw in the loyalty Moyes is showing to an under-performing centre back partnership between Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic. He has re-introduced Jonny Evans recently, but I'd expect Ferdinand and Vidic to again be preferred for this match.
Stoke City started the season well and manager Mark Hughes was being lauded for the quick time he had seemingly instilled a more attractive style of play into his side. However comma since then the performances have got poorer and the team have reverted back to the comfort of a more 'industrial' style. This is to be expected after so many years playing that way, but Hughes is facing some criticism for it. The good point from the worse results of late is that due to the teams defensive schooling they are not getting beaten by much. With that in mind, and United's short price, I think there is again room to play the handicap markets here.
Lay Manchester United -1 Handicap at 2.03 on Betfair. 2 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Valladolid, Friday 2000
Rayo Vallecano are a side that make no apologies for thinking only of entertaining their fans and attempting to score more than the opposition. The problem with this is that when the forward players are not on top of their game the side can be embarrassed defensively. This was certainly the case for the earliest part of this season when they failed to get a point for six matches after starting the season with a win against newly promoted Elche. However, since then they have notched two 1-0 wins, one at home and one away, to move back up the table. This new resoluteness in defence bodes well as they are still not firing on all cylinders and makes me believe they are a side on the up at present.
Real Valladolid are one of those sides who seem to perenially be in the middle of the table. This is something they will be perfectly happy with at present with the lack of money around for all outside Barcelona, Real and Atletico Madrid in La Liga. A couple of good signings can push a side like them for Europe, although that doesn't look likely to happen this year. Valladolid have not won an away match either this season, with two draws and two losses so far. They have also only scored three and conceded seven so far in those matches and I really don't like their chances in this one.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.2 with William Hill. 2 points.
Juventus v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Juventus' manager Antonio Conte has done an exceptional job in restoring the Turin side to the top of Serie A and re-establishing them in Europe too. They have by far the best squad in Italy and can consider themselves to be one of the better sides in all of Europe. This was all certainly true last season. Conte himself warned of the third season being the most difficult of all in terms of maintaining performances and that looks to be true so far. A number of the players who have served him so well look to be getting a little complacent and Giorgio Chiellini and Ginaluigi Buffon both seem to be creaking for the first time. The signings of Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack haven't been a roaring success. Tevez has fitted in fine, but Llorente is rumoured to be finding the lifestyle switch impossible already. They do sit third in Serie A at present having won all three of their home matches with an aggregate score of nine to four, but have shown signs of weakness in most matches.
Genoa appointed Gian Piero Gasperini as manager this season and have looked a better side for it. After being given the reins at Inter Milan and then not backed to succeed his reputation was hugely damaged, but he is doing fine restoring this now. They do sit fifteenth in the table, but have tightened up considerably the last two matches to draw 1-1 with Catania away and beat Chievo 2-1 at home. I think they may well lose this one, but can't resisit again playing the handicaps on such a short priced home win.
Back Genoa +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.8 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
Now, I've been let down a couple of times more than usual in Germany so far, but I still think this will turn around and I'm making the correct calls. Hannover are a side I will always look out for as long as they keep the same direction as they are currently following. They never seem far away from the top end of the table, but fail to gain the reputation the likes of Werder Bremen or Wolfsburg have from title wins a few years gone now. They are similar to someone like West Brom under Steve Clarke I think, albeit with more about them in attack. They have so far played five home matches, winning four and drawing the other for an aggregate of eleven goals for and only four against. They're a good side worth following.
Hoffenheim blazed through the leagues in Germany to the Bundesliga followed by a blaze of publicity for doing so. Once the first half of their first season was over though, they have found it much harder going. Culminating in almost being relegated back to the Bundesliga II last season. They seem a much more settled club now under the management of Marcus Gidsol, but are not any better than mid-table for me. They have only actually won two matches from nine so far with three draws from five propping them up at home. Away from home they have won one, drawn one and lost two with ten scored and eleven conceded. They're providing entertainment, but Hannover are good enough defensively to see them off.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt, Sunday 1630
A side I am also now back keeping an eye on is Borussia Monchengladbach in Germany. Two seasons back they were very profitable for followers with Marco Reus spearheading their attack and an incredibly well-drilled defence keeping most sides at bay. When Reus moved to Borussia Dortmund last summer they went through something of a transitional period trying to figure out a new way of winning games without relying on the mercurial forward. They seem to have finally settled on a system of attacking involving more players now, but have also kept enough defensively too. This is particularly prominent in a home record of played four, won four with thirteen scored and only three conceded. They even beat a Borussia Dortmund side who look back to their very best last time but one out. They then lost to Hertha Berlin away to show that all is not quite sorted yet away from home.
Eintracht Frankfurt did exceptionally well last season following promotion to find themselves in European competition on Thursday's. Unfortunately for them they look the epitome of a side where the extra competition is too much for the squad and are struggling to balance the league form alongside Europa League matches. This week sees them playing Sunday to allow for recovery, but this doesn't seem to have gone as hoped as yet. They have been better away from home so far, but are now travelling to one of the best around for home form and will struggle I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.15 with SportingBet. 2 points.
This week, as mentioned previously, I will be changing my other league of focus. I am going to have at look at France's Ligue Un this time. Turkey has become something of a chore and whilst I may return to it in the future, I am not motivated enough to trawl for news at this time. Sometimes that break can be good to get some focus back, let's hope this is the case here!
Lorient v Sochaux, Saturday 1900
My first pick in Ligue Un is a lay. Lorient are currently third bottom of the table in France and look set to struggle for the majority of the season. This is mainly due to a truly horrendous away record of having played six and lost six, scoring three and conceding twelve. They have won two of four at home so far, but have only scored six, whilst conceding the same number. Goals are not a problem just for Lorient, it's a French thing, but they are nevertheless really struggling.
Sochaux are second bottom and have managed a draw and four losses when away from home so far this season. They have scored four and conceded thirteen in those matches, which is obviously broadly similar to Lorient's away form. They have only won one match at home, but have drawn two, whilst scoring five and conceding seven. Lorient may well be the better side so far, but not by enough for me to justify being an odds on favourite in this match when goals are at such a premium.
Lay Lorient at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Saint Etienne v Paris SG, Sunday 2000
This may seem an obvious bet to start off in France, but I think there is some value in it. Saint Etienne are a regular side in the top half of the table in France and this season so far looks like that will be the case again. They have a good home record, as seems to be the case for most Ligue Un sides, in comparison to one their travels. The problem with the odds giving them credit for that is that, in my opinion, Paris SG are miles ahead and have not been treated as such here. St Etienne go won three, drawn one and lost one at home with nine scored and seven conceded. My main worry here is the seven conceded as that is very high in a league as low scoring as Ligue Un.
That in mind Paris SG's expensive attackers look to be coming into form now. Zlatan Ibrahimovic seems to have thrived in France and revelled in his role as the key man in the side, not to mention in attack. The addition of Edinson Cavani over the summer has looked a tad unnecessary at times, but they clicked on Wednesday night when dismantling Anderlecht. Laurent Blanc isn't my idea of a top level coach, but he almost can't fail in charge domestically with the amount of fine players he has at his disposal. I'm backing them to be in a rich vein of form and for their excellent away record of won four and drawn one to be won five and drawn one come late Sunday night.
Back Paris SG at 1.8 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Music from Ben Nichols with Toadvine, yet more alt-country!
Week 4
Cardiff City v Newcastle United - Lose 2 points.
Hull City v Aston Villa - Win 1.2 points.
Levante v Real Madrid - Win 1.8 points.
Inter Milan v Roma - Lose 2 points.
Udinese v Cagliari - Win 1.94 points.
Hannover 96 v Hertha Berlin - Lose 3 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor- Lose 2 points.
Weekly Totals - Lose 5.06 points.
Running Total - Lose 12.14 points.
Liverpool v West Brom, Saturday 1500
Lets's return to an old theme for the first up. Liverpool seemed to be set at more realistic prices at the end of last season, but it seems a decent start to this season has seen silly ones returning. I personally think Liverpool are building a decent side, albeit slowly. Their forward pairing of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge backed up by Phillipe Coutinho is very strong and their defence looks much more solid. I am not at all sold on new signing Simon Mignolet in goal as yet, nor am I particularly impressed by the midfield in the main. They are narrowly winning games at the moment, and that's no bad thing, but they don't look miles ahead of anyone to me, which is what the odds here would suggest. Pricing them up at a general 1.4 should really indicate they're going to have a pretty easy time of it against West Brom. Something to bear in mind is that Liverpool have tired in every match so far and have not 'won' a second half all season. If they can be frustrated then they can be stopped.
West Brom have again shown themselves to be a very decent Premier League side under the management of Steve Clarke. They have also made an excellent signing in Morgan Amalfitano and also brought the exciting striker Saido Berahino into the squad. Both these players have excelled in attacking positions and somewhat eased the worry about missing last seasons loan star Romelu Lukaku up front. Clarke was always an excellent number two and seemed to improve the tactical and organisational sides of clubs he worked for and seems to be carrying that on at WBA. I would actually fancy him, of most Premier League managers, to set up a side to contain Liverpool. Due to the odds being so low on Liverpool though I am going to give us a handicap to help.
Back West Brom +1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.4 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Manchester United v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
As I mentioned in my last blog, I think Manchester United are currently suffering from the same short prices Liverpool have previously. They are clearly still a good side under David Moyes, with some very talented players, but they are not as good as the odds would suggest. The main problem I see with the odds is that Moyes is an inherently cautious manager at present and this is holding the side back from pushing on to get a comfortable lead in matches. Their last match was a perfect example of this with Southampton not being killed off and snatching a late equaliser at Old Trafford. A side with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Robin Van Persie, Shinji Kagawa and also Nani, Antonio Valencia, Javier Hernandez and more should not be struggling to score goals, but they are. You can then throw in the loyalty Moyes is showing to an under-performing centre back partnership between Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic. He has re-introduced Jonny Evans recently, but I'd expect Ferdinand and Vidic to again be preferred for this match.
Stoke City started the season well and manager Mark Hughes was being lauded for the quick time he had seemingly instilled a more attractive style of play into his side. However comma since then the performances have got poorer and the team have reverted back to the comfort of a more 'industrial' style. This is to be expected after so many years playing that way, but Hughes is facing some criticism for it. The good point from the worse results of late is that due to the teams defensive schooling they are not getting beaten by much. With that in mind, and United's short price, I think there is again room to play the handicap markets here.
Lay Manchester United -1 Handicap at 2.03 on Betfair. 2 points.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Valladolid, Friday 2000
Rayo Vallecano are a side that make no apologies for thinking only of entertaining their fans and attempting to score more than the opposition. The problem with this is that when the forward players are not on top of their game the side can be embarrassed defensively. This was certainly the case for the earliest part of this season when they failed to get a point for six matches after starting the season with a win against newly promoted Elche. However, since then they have notched two 1-0 wins, one at home and one away, to move back up the table. This new resoluteness in defence bodes well as they are still not firing on all cylinders and makes me believe they are a side on the up at present.
Real Valladolid are one of those sides who seem to perenially be in the middle of the table. This is something they will be perfectly happy with at present with the lack of money around for all outside Barcelona, Real and Atletico Madrid in La Liga. A couple of good signings can push a side like them for Europe, although that doesn't look likely to happen this year. Valladolid have not won an away match either this season, with two draws and two losses so far. They have also only scored three and conceded seven so far in those matches and I really don't like their chances in this one.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.2 with William Hill. 2 points.
Juventus v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Juventus' manager Antonio Conte has done an exceptional job in restoring the Turin side to the top of Serie A and re-establishing them in Europe too. They have by far the best squad in Italy and can consider themselves to be one of the better sides in all of Europe. This was all certainly true last season. Conte himself warned of the third season being the most difficult of all in terms of maintaining performances and that looks to be true so far. A number of the players who have served him so well look to be getting a little complacent and Giorgio Chiellini and Ginaluigi Buffon both seem to be creaking for the first time. The signings of Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack haven't been a roaring success. Tevez has fitted in fine, but Llorente is rumoured to be finding the lifestyle switch impossible already. They do sit third in Serie A at present having won all three of their home matches with an aggregate score of nine to four, but have shown signs of weakness in most matches.
Genoa appointed Gian Piero Gasperini as manager this season and have looked a better side for it. After being given the reins at Inter Milan and then not backed to succeed his reputation was hugely damaged, but he is doing fine restoring this now. They do sit fifteenth in the table, but have tightened up considerably the last two matches to draw 1-1 with Catania away and beat Chievo 2-1 at home. I think they may well lose this one, but can't resisit again playing the handicaps on such a short priced home win.
Back Genoa +2.0 Asian Handicap at 1.8 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
Now, I've been let down a couple of times more than usual in Germany so far, but I still think this will turn around and I'm making the correct calls. Hannover are a side I will always look out for as long as they keep the same direction as they are currently following. They never seem far away from the top end of the table, but fail to gain the reputation the likes of Werder Bremen or Wolfsburg have from title wins a few years gone now. They are similar to someone like West Brom under Steve Clarke I think, albeit with more about them in attack. They have so far played five home matches, winning four and drawing the other for an aggregate of eleven goals for and only four against. They're a good side worth following.
Hoffenheim blazed through the leagues in Germany to the Bundesliga followed by a blaze of publicity for doing so. Once the first half of their first season was over though, they have found it much harder going. Culminating in almost being relegated back to the Bundesliga II last season. They seem a much more settled club now under the management of Marcus Gidsol, but are not any better than mid-table for me. They have only actually won two matches from nine so far with three draws from five propping them up at home. Away from home they have won one, drawn one and lost two with ten scored and eleven conceded. They're providing entertainment, but Hannover are good enough defensively to see them off.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Frankfurt, Sunday 1630
A side I am also now back keeping an eye on is Borussia Monchengladbach in Germany. Two seasons back they were very profitable for followers with Marco Reus spearheading their attack and an incredibly well-drilled defence keeping most sides at bay. When Reus moved to Borussia Dortmund last summer they went through something of a transitional period trying to figure out a new way of winning games without relying on the mercurial forward. They seem to have finally settled on a system of attacking involving more players now, but have also kept enough defensively too. This is particularly prominent in a home record of played four, won four with thirteen scored and only three conceded. They even beat a Borussia Dortmund side who look back to their very best last time but one out. They then lost to Hertha Berlin away to show that all is not quite sorted yet away from home.
Eintracht Frankfurt did exceptionally well last season following promotion to find themselves in European competition on Thursday's. Unfortunately for them they look the epitome of a side where the extra competition is too much for the squad and are struggling to balance the league form alongside Europa League matches. This week sees them playing Sunday to allow for recovery, but this doesn't seem to have gone as hoped as yet. They have been better away from home so far, but are now travelling to one of the best around for home form and will struggle I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.15 with SportingBet. 2 points.
This week, as mentioned previously, I will be changing my other league of focus. I am going to have at look at France's Ligue Un this time. Turkey has become something of a chore and whilst I may return to it in the future, I am not motivated enough to trawl for news at this time. Sometimes that break can be good to get some focus back, let's hope this is the case here!
Lorient v Sochaux, Saturday 1900
My first pick in Ligue Un is a lay. Lorient are currently third bottom of the table in France and look set to struggle for the majority of the season. This is mainly due to a truly horrendous away record of having played six and lost six, scoring three and conceding twelve. They have won two of four at home so far, but have only scored six, whilst conceding the same number. Goals are not a problem just for Lorient, it's a French thing, but they are nevertheless really struggling.
Sochaux are second bottom and have managed a draw and four losses when away from home so far this season. They have scored four and conceded thirteen in those matches, which is obviously broadly similar to Lorient's away form. They have only won one match at home, but have drawn two, whilst scoring five and conceding seven. Lorient may well be the better side so far, but not by enough for me to justify being an odds on favourite in this match when goals are at such a premium.
Lay Lorient at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Saint Etienne v Paris SG, Sunday 2000
This may seem an obvious bet to start off in France, but I think there is some value in it. Saint Etienne are a regular side in the top half of the table in France and this season so far looks like that will be the case again. They have a good home record, as seems to be the case for most Ligue Un sides, in comparison to one their travels. The problem with the odds giving them credit for that is that, in my opinion, Paris SG are miles ahead and have not been treated as such here. St Etienne go won three, drawn one and lost one at home with nine scored and seven conceded. My main worry here is the seven conceded as that is very high in a league as low scoring as Ligue Un.
That in mind Paris SG's expensive attackers look to be coming into form now. Zlatan Ibrahimovic seems to have thrived in France and revelled in his role as the key man in the side, not to mention in attack. The addition of Edinson Cavani over the summer has looked a tad unnecessary at times, but they clicked on Wednesday night when dismantling Anderlecht. Laurent Blanc isn't my idea of a top level coach, but he almost can't fail in charge domestically with the amount of fine players he has at his disposal. I'm backing them to be in a rich vein of form and for their excellent away record of won four and drawn one to be won five and drawn one come late Sunday night.
Back Paris SG at 1.8 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Friday, 4 October 2013
Small gains...
After two weeks starting off with losses we hit the black last weekend, with Saturday a particularly good day. I've always pointed out the intention of this blog is not for people who want a 15 fold odds-on accumulator each weekend, it's for long-term gains. In my opinion, barring an enormous slice of luck, these will only come with extensive research and planning. So revel in the huge profits when they come, but remember that there could be a complete reverse another week. And that's this weeks lecture over with!
A couple of early thoughts this week are concerning Manchester United and Turkish football betting. It is beginning to be an idea in my mind that United may well start to look like Liverpool in the odds this season, or at least for a while. I think there is a decent chance that they will continue to be priced as one of the very best sides in the league, when close examination does not bear this out at all for me. I see an excellent goalkeeper, a disorganised and ageing defence, a mid-table at best midfield and a good selection of attackers being ignored or mis-used in some cases. So I will have a close eye on looking to lay them if this is borne out in the setting of the odds. My thought on Turkish football is that I may well look to move on to another league as a regular feature. I no longer spend as much time researching the Super Lig and would possibly have more chance moving on to the French Ligue Un or the Dutch Eredivisie, or even lower league English football. I'll stick with the Super Lig this week, but any feedback on that would be appreciated.
Music from the Lawrence Arms with 100 Resolutions.
Week 3
Tottenham v Chelsea - Win 1.05 points.
Hull City v West Ham - Win 1.44 points.
Osasuna v Levante - Win 1.71 points.
Cagliari v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hambury - Win 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg - Win 0.66 points.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Win 1.36 points.
Running Total - Lose 7.08 points.
Cardiff City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
There's a very decent chance I'll follow Cardiff City a bit this season as I'm impressed with them more than the odds makers by the looks of things. I have mentioned before how I believe defence very often is the area I believe the odds should move around. This is even more the case when you are looking at laying sides or playing the handicap markets as sides may well get draws or even only lose narrowly when the match odds reflect a huge advantage for the opposition. That is not the case here though. Malky Mackay's side spent the big money this summer on Steven Caulker and Gary Medel to shore up the defence and midfield and that looks very wise right now. There is not the same level of talent in the forwards, but there's enough there to try and nick goals that can win matches from the solid defensive base they have. I think this will particularly be the case in home matches like this.
Newcastle United are still being priced above their abilities all too often for me. There is definitely some good players at the club, Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye being the obvious examples, but I'm unconvinced by Alan Pardew. On top of that the club itself seems unsure of what direction it is going in from the lack of leadership from Mike Ashley and the appointment of Joe Kinnear as Director of Football. At present it looks like Yohan Cabaye will make it to the starting line-up and that changes things a bit as the side improves drastically for his presence, but not enough in my opinion. Not to justify Cardiff being so long in places.
Back Cardiff City at 2.43 with PinnacleBet. 2.5 points.
Hull City v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
This might be a theme for a few weeks yet! I actually think Hull City, similarly to Cardiff City, are being slightly underestimated by the odds setters. In this case it isn't so much for their own strengths, defence again really, but in comparison to the clubs in the bottom half of the Premier League. Whilst they have no stand out players, aside from the excellent so far Tom Huddlestone, they don't look any worse to me than someone like Norwich or Fulham or even Aston Villa. My point really is that only Crystal Palace look miles off the necessary quality and Hull could well pick up some good points, especially if they can solve their goals problem. This will possibly not be until January though as currently it's only really Danny Graham for them and he's hugely out of form.
Aston Villa are an incredibly strange side. With Christian Benteke playing they are sometimes worth considering at one of the big boys as if they can stay organised he can cause anyone problems. However comma he is currently out injured anyway. You can point out last weekends win against Manchester City in his absence, but that looks a complete aberration to me and is best ignored. I'm still unsure whether Paul Lambert is being clever with bringing in young, hungry players or whether it's a convenient excuse when results go against them. I will continue to give him the benefit of the doubt for now because of his previously impressive record in management and because it is the norm in Germany where they are currently producing some excellent sides. This week though they look a little short. I'd back Hull, but they don't have enough goal threat for me so I'll be a layer.
Lay Aston Villa at 3.2 on Betfair. 2 points.
Levante v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
I've actually made similar bets to this in the previous two seasons for the same game and been very close to getting it spot on. I've previously layed Real Madrid in the Match Odds market.
Levante have started the season decently in La Liga and got another respectable result last weekend with a 1-0 win away at Osasuna. They again look a side who will be difficult to beat and that is shown in their current record of only having lost once in seven matches this season. They have drawn all three home matches so far and have only conceded once in those matches. They seem to always punch above their perceived weight and are doing so again.
Real Madrid look very much like a side Jose Mourinho has left at present. His methods are not to be dismissed when in charge of a side as he gets great results and certainly improved Real too for the most part of his reign. But, he does seem to always leave sides looking tired and squabbling and this is no exception. The hierachy at Real have not helped by selling their main provider, Mesut Ozil, failing to sign a striker to help Karim Benzema and signing a player for a world record fee they did not require, Gareth Bale. Add this to the problems Mourinho left and Carlo Ancelotti suddenly looks like he has a huge job on his hands. They are no bad side, but the home loss to Atletico Madrid last weekend again showed their are big issues around.
Back Levante +2 Regular Handicap at 1.9 with Stan James. 2 points.
Inter Milan v Roma, Saturday 1945
The two sides that have surprised most people so far this season in Serie A are meeting at the San Siro on Saturday night. Both under new managers and they have improved immeasurably already it seems. In the case of Inter Milan it is former Napoli manager Walter Mazzari who has been given the chance to try and improve the side that has steadily declined since Jose Mourinho and the treble. There is probably not a better manager in Serie A for the job for me and he already looks to have sorted out a previously porous defence straight away. Bringing in Hugo Campagnaro was a master-stroke as the experienced defender has played under Mazzari loads and helps every other player adjust to the new methods employed. Whilst Ricky Alvarez had a poor match last weekend he has been rejuvenated as an attacker also and his replacement on Sunday, Zdravko Kuzmanovic, looks like he's coming along well again too.
Roma currently sit top of Serie A having won all six matches so far under Rudi Garcia. The man that guided Lille to Ligue Un titles and saw the development of Eden Hazard and Gervinho has seemingly unlocked the latter again. He is a believer in the high intensity pressing game favoured by the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp and it is getting results. This can clearly be seen in the fact they have often not been ahead at half time, but the way they tire the opposition out results in winning the matches anyway. The only criticism so far is that they have yet to play a 'good' side, Inter Milan provide this test. I think they may well come unstuck finally here thanks to Mazzari's great experience in Italy paying off.
Lay Roma at 3.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1400
I was a big follower of Udinese around two years ago for about six months as I thought they were being greatly under-appreciated. They were giving Juventus something to think about at the top of Serie A thanks to an excellent scouting system that kept finding new players for the first team. The likes of Alexis Sanchez (Bracelona), Gokhlan Inler (Napoli) and Cristian Zapata (AC Milan) are all examples of the players Udinese have found and sold on at huge profits. This has now seen the team reduced to upper mid-table, but they should still harbour hopes of Europa League qualification. Antonio Di Natale is probably in his last season now, but he is still capable of turning a match with a goal when fit. In this sense no European football is keeping him largely available for league matches at least. They have only lost away this season so far and have won two from three, with a draw, at home whilst scoring five and only conceding two.
Cagliari are also unbeaten at home, but have also failed to win away from home with two draws and a loss so far. They have conceded in every match so far too, which worries me slightly with my previously mentioned emphasis on defending. Cagliari, have in fact only won one match all season and I can understand the odds being as they are here. I don't think there's any huge value in this price, but I think it's still backable.
Back Udinese at 1.97 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hertha Bsc, Friday 1930
This is not to be missed in my opinion. Occasionally the foreign leagues will throw up prices that look excellent to those who follow them and this looks the case here. Hannover 96 are one of my favourite teams to side with due to their consistency and under-appreciation by bookmakers. They always finish near the top of the Bundesliga and invest very wisely to add players who fit a system that works very well for them. The lack of stars also aids them in holding on to their players with many flying under the radar or being presumed to only fit the system at Hannover. They have started the season well again, particularly at home where they have won four from four with a goals for record of ten compared to only three conceded. They have lost all three away matches to temper things a bit, but you can't ignore quality over time and that home record.
Hertha Bsc were promoted over the summer and have not looked out of place so far. In fact, they currently sit in fifth, one place behind Hannover 96. This is also on the back of an impressive home record of played four, won three and drawn one. But, they also seem to struggle away from home where they are yet to win with a record of played three, drawn two and lost one. It could also, rightly, be argues they've had a relatively easy start so far and this should be their first real test. I think they'll come up short against a side with as much experience in the top division as Hannover and one going so well so far.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 3 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
This season Borussia Monchengladbach have started very well and sit near the top of the table at this early stage. They have been excellent at home and currently have three wins from three with a whopping eleven goals scored and only two conceded. This would suggest that some of the issues they have experienced since losing Marco Reus to the visitors have been solved. At various times they have struggled to replac his constant goal threat with a more attacking approach, but this at times left them very vulnerable at the back. This was previously a strength and it looks like they may have sorted this out a bit. To temper this optimism a little bit, they have yet to win away from home. They have a record of played four, drawn one and lost three on the road with only three scored and six conceded. From what I have seen the defence isn't bad away either really, but they haven't committed enough men to attacking to cause trouble.
Borussia Dortmund have started fantastically in their attempts to get back their Bundesliga title from Bayern Munich. So far they have won six and drawn one with a league high of twenty one scored and only five conceded. They've been known the odd slip though. I still think the odds are generous to back them here
though.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.73 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
Sorry this one is so late in being given!
Karabukspor were one of the best of the rest last season in the Super Lig thanks to a counter attacking approach. This actually saw them beat Fenerbahce in Istanbul such was it's success. They did lose start striker Lamine Diarra, but have started well so far. They have a good home record of played three, won two and drawn one. This is with no goals conceded either. Their away form is far more patchy, but this is not unusual at all in the Super Lig and I think they're priced very generously for this.
Bursaspor have again started a season poorly and sit two places off the bottom at present. They actually often seem to gain points all over the place rather than the league norm of relying on home form to gain them points. This can see them in small runs of either horrendous form, or great play depending on the mood seemingly. They are present ly in a poor run and I think they are there to be opposed.
Back Karabukspor at 2.92 on Betfair. 2 points.
A couple of early thoughts this week are concerning Manchester United and Turkish football betting. It is beginning to be an idea in my mind that United may well start to look like Liverpool in the odds this season, or at least for a while. I think there is a decent chance that they will continue to be priced as one of the very best sides in the league, when close examination does not bear this out at all for me. I see an excellent goalkeeper, a disorganised and ageing defence, a mid-table at best midfield and a good selection of attackers being ignored or mis-used in some cases. So I will have a close eye on looking to lay them if this is borne out in the setting of the odds. My thought on Turkish football is that I may well look to move on to another league as a regular feature. I no longer spend as much time researching the Super Lig and would possibly have more chance moving on to the French Ligue Un or the Dutch Eredivisie, or even lower league English football. I'll stick with the Super Lig this week, but any feedback on that would be appreciated.
Music from the Lawrence Arms with 100 Resolutions.
Week 3
Tottenham v Chelsea - Win 1.05 points.
Hull City v West Ham - Win 1.44 points.
Osasuna v Levante - Win 1.71 points.
Cagliari v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hambury - Win 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg - Win 0.66 points.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor - Lose 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Win 1.36 points.
Running Total - Lose 7.08 points.
Cardiff City v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
There's a very decent chance I'll follow Cardiff City a bit this season as I'm impressed with them more than the odds makers by the looks of things. I have mentioned before how I believe defence very often is the area I believe the odds should move around. This is even more the case when you are looking at laying sides or playing the handicap markets as sides may well get draws or even only lose narrowly when the match odds reflect a huge advantage for the opposition. That is not the case here though. Malky Mackay's side spent the big money this summer on Steven Caulker and Gary Medel to shore up the defence and midfield and that looks very wise right now. There is not the same level of talent in the forwards, but there's enough there to try and nick goals that can win matches from the solid defensive base they have. I think this will particularly be the case in home matches like this.
Newcastle United are still being priced above their abilities all too often for me. There is definitely some good players at the club, Hatem Ben Arfa and Yohan Cabaye being the obvious examples, but I'm unconvinced by Alan Pardew. On top of that the club itself seems unsure of what direction it is going in from the lack of leadership from Mike Ashley and the appointment of Joe Kinnear as Director of Football. At present it looks like Yohan Cabaye will make it to the starting line-up and that changes things a bit as the side improves drastically for his presence, but not enough in my opinion. Not to justify Cardiff being so long in places.
Back Cardiff City at 2.43 with PinnacleBet. 2.5 points.
Hull City v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
This might be a theme for a few weeks yet! I actually think Hull City, similarly to Cardiff City, are being slightly underestimated by the odds setters. In this case it isn't so much for their own strengths, defence again really, but in comparison to the clubs in the bottom half of the Premier League. Whilst they have no stand out players, aside from the excellent so far Tom Huddlestone, they don't look any worse to me than someone like Norwich or Fulham or even Aston Villa. My point really is that only Crystal Palace look miles off the necessary quality and Hull could well pick up some good points, especially if they can solve their goals problem. This will possibly not be until January though as currently it's only really Danny Graham for them and he's hugely out of form.
Aston Villa are an incredibly strange side. With Christian Benteke playing they are sometimes worth considering at one of the big boys as if they can stay organised he can cause anyone problems. However comma he is currently out injured anyway. You can point out last weekends win against Manchester City in his absence, but that looks a complete aberration to me and is best ignored. I'm still unsure whether Paul Lambert is being clever with bringing in young, hungry players or whether it's a convenient excuse when results go against them. I will continue to give him the benefit of the doubt for now because of his previously impressive record in management and because it is the norm in Germany where they are currently producing some excellent sides. This week though they look a little short. I'd back Hull, but they don't have enough goal threat for me so I'll be a layer.
Lay Aston Villa at 3.2 on Betfair. 2 points.
Levante v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
I've actually made similar bets to this in the previous two seasons for the same game and been very close to getting it spot on. I've previously layed Real Madrid in the Match Odds market.
Levante have started the season decently in La Liga and got another respectable result last weekend with a 1-0 win away at Osasuna. They again look a side who will be difficult to beat and that is shown in their current record of only having lost once in seven matches this season. They have drawn all three home matches so far and have only conceded once in those matches. They seem to always punch above their perceived weight and are doing so again.
Real Madrid look very much like a side Jose Mourinho has left at present. His methods are not to be dismissed when in charge of a side as he gets great results and certainly improved Real too for the most part of his reign. But, he does seem to always leave sides looking tired and squabbling and this is no exception. The hierachy at Real have not helped by selling their main provider, Mesut Ozil, failing to sign a striker to help Karim Benzema and signing a player for a world record fee they did not require, Gareth Bale. Add this to the problems Mourinho left and Carlo Ancelotti suddenly looks like he has a huge job on his hands. They are no bad side, but the home loss to Atletico Madrid last weekend again showed their are big issues around.
Back Levante +2 Regular Handicap at 1.9 with Stan James. 2 points.
Inter Milan v Roma, Saturday 1945
The two sides that have surprised most people so far this season in Serie A are meeting at the San Siro on Saturday night. Both under new managers and they have improved immeasurably already it seems. In the case of Inter Milan it is former Napoli manager Walter Mazzari who has been given the chance to try and improve the side that has steadily declined since Jose Mourinho and the treble. There is probably not a better manager in Serie A for the job for me and he already looks to have sorted out a previously porous defence straight away. Bringing in Hugo Campagnaro was a master-stroke as the experienced defender has played under Mazzari loads and helps every other player adjust to the new methods employed. Whilst Ricky Alvarez had a poor match last weekend he has been rejuvenated as an attacker also and his replacement on Sunday, Zdravko Kuzmanovic, looks like he's coming along well again too.
Roma currently sit top of Serie A having won all six matches so far under Rudi Garcia. The man that guided Lille to Ligue Un titles and saw the development of Eden Hazard and Gervinho has seemingly unlocked the latter again. He is a believer in the high intensity pressing game favoured by the likes of Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp and it is getting results. This can clearly be seen in the fact they have often not been ahead at half time, but the way they tire the opposition out results in winning the matches anyway. The only criticism so far is that they have yet to play a 'good' side, Inter Milan provide this test. I think they may well come unstuck finally here thanks to Mazzari's great experience in Italy paying off.
Lay Roma at 3.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1400
I was a big follower of Udinese around two years ago for about six months as I thought they were being greatly under-appreciated. They were giving Juventus something to think about at the top of Serie A thanks to an excellent scouting system that kept finding new players for the first team. The likes of Alexis Sanchez (Bracelona), Gokhlan Inler (Napoli) and Cristian Zapata (AC Milan) are all examples of the players Udinese have found and sold on at huge profits. This has now seen the team reduced to upper mid-table, but they should still harbour hopes of Europa League qualification. Antonio Di Natale is probably in his last season now, but he is still capable of turning a match with a goal when fit. In this sense no European football is keeping him largely available for league matches at least. They have only lost away this season so far and have won two from three, with a draw, at home whilst scoring five and only conceding two.
Cagliari are also unbeaten at home, but have also failed to win away from home with two draws and a loss so far. They have conceded in every match so far too, which worries me slightly with my previously mentioned emphasis on defending. Cagliari, have in fact only won one match all season and I can understand the odds being as they are here. I don't think there's any huge value in this price, but I think it's still backable.
Back Udinese at 1.97 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Hannover 96 v Hertha Bsc, Friday 1930
This is not to be missed in my opinion. Occasionally the foreign leagues will throw up prices that look excellent to those who follow them and this looks the case here. Hannover 96 are one of my favourite teams to side with due to their consistency and under-appreciation by bookmakers. They always finish near the top of the Bundesliga and invest very wisely to add players who fit a system that works very well for them. The lack of stars also aids them in holding on to their players with many flying under the radar or being presumed to only fit the system at Hannover. They have started the season well again, particularly at home where they have won four from four with a goals for record of ten compared to only three conceded. They have lost all three away matches to temper things a bit, but you can't ignore quality over time and that home record.
Hertha Bsc were promoted over the summer and have not looked out of place so far. In fact, they currently sit in fifth, one place behind Hannover 96. This is also on the back of an impressive home record of played four, won three and drawn one. But, they also seem to struggle away from home where they are yet to win with a record of played three, drawn two and lost one. It could also, rightly, be argues they've had a relatively easy start so far and this should be their first real test. I think they'll come up short against a side with as much experience in the top division as Hannover and one going so well so far.
Back Hannover 96 at 2.4 with BetVictor. 3 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
This season Borussia Monchengladbach have started very well and sit near the top of the table at this early stage. They have been excellent at home and currently have three wins from three with a whopping eleven goals scored and only two conceded. This would suggest that some of the issues they have experienced since losing Marco Reus to the visitors have been solved. At various times they have struggled to replac his constant goal threat with a more attacking approach, but this at times left them very vulnerable at the back. This was previously a strength and it looks like they may have sorted this out a bit. To temper this optimism a little bit, they have yet to win away from home. They have a record of played four, drawn one and lost three on the road with only three scored and six conceded. From what I have seen the defence isn't bad away either really, but they haven't committed enough men to attacking to cause trouble.
Borussia Dortmund have started fantastically in their attempts to get back their Bundesliga title from Bayern Munich. So far they have won six and drawn one with a league high of twenty one scored and only five conceded. They've been known the odd slip though. I still think the odds are generous to back them here
though.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.73 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Karabukspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
Sorry this one is so late in being given!
Karabukspor were one of the best of the rest last season in the Super Lig thanks to a counter attacking approach. This actually saw them beat Fenerbahce in Istanbul such was it's success. They did lose start striker Lamine Diarra, but have started well so far. They have a good home record of played three, won two and drawn one. This is with no goals conceded either. Their away form is far more patchy, but this is not unusual at all in the Super Lig and I think they're priced very generously for this.
Bursaspor have again started a season poorly and sit two places off the bottom at present. They actually often seem to gain points all over the place rather than the league norm of relying on home form to gain them points. This can see them in small runs of either horrendous form, or great play depending on the mood seemingly. They are present ly in a poor run and I think they are there to be opposed.
Back Karabukspor at 2.92 on Betfair. 2 points.
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