Well, all the teams have now played once in the Copa America, and it's been a fairly damp squib so far. Both Argentina and Brazil failed to win their opening matches and now will be keen to get a win to ease their passages to the knockout stages. This is particularly important to Argentina with them being the hosts and the country still in mourning at River Plate's first ever relegation. Personally I'm hoping to pick some winners this time as I'm well aware all the upsets have cost me and you dearly so far!
Argentina v Colombia, Thursday 0145
First up is again the hosts, this time taking on tipped outsiders Colombia. Both underwhelmed in their opening matches. Argentina had to come from behind to grasp a draw from minnows Bolivia and Colombia failed to add to a solitary goal in 45 minutes against a poor 10 man Costa Rica side. I have always had faith in the Argie's to improve, mostly because they have Messi, but my faith is being tested. Coach Batista supposedly tried to mimic Barcelona in the first match in an effort to bring out Messi's best form, and it failed. He had looked impressive in recent matches though so I would expect to see them revert to a formula that suits the team as a whole rather than just their best player. Colombia haven't scored more than 2 in a match in over 3 years, and I knowingly went against form in their first match. If they couldn't put more than 1 past a 10 man Costa Rica B team then I'm beginning to fear for their longevity in the tournament. I think Argentina might nick this, but I don't think they'll run away with it. I'll back under 2.5 goals at a price of 1.95 with Bet365.
Bolivia v Costa Rica, Thursday 2315
The other game in Group A is between 2 of the lesser sides in the tournament in Bolivia and Costa Rica's under 22 side. I was very impressed with the organisation Bolivia showed in holding off Argentina in the main in their first match. They might have got lucky with their goal, but they probably deserved something from the match. Costa Rica were just lucky that Colombia didn't seem overly bothered in extending their lead from 1-0, even when the Costa Ricans were reduced to 10 men before half time. I think Bolivia will view this as very winnable, and a boost to their hopes of making the knockout stages, against the odds. I think William Hill are taking a chance at 2.0 on a Bolivia win and I'll be taking those odds.
Uruguay v Chile, Friday 2315
The two favourites for Group B meet late on Friday night in a match that will probably guarantee qualification for the winner. Uruguay were heavily tipped in a lot of media outlets to challenge Brazil and Argentina, but I still think their looking out of form since their great World Cup. This was somewhat backed up in their opening match with them falling behind and ultimately drawing with Peru. Luis Suarez got their goal, and he looks in great nick. Chile took on Mexico's C team in their opening match and emerged with a 2-1 victory. Mexico had sent an Under 22 side as guests and this was further weakened when 8 of that squad were sent home for liaising with ladies of ill repute. With all the upsets going on though, their victory looks quite impressive. They will definitely find it more difficult against Uruguay's impressive defence though. I fancy another draw in this one, with both teams as keen to avoid defeat as they are to win. Back it at a best priced 3.25 with Ladbrokes.
Peru v Mexico, Saturday 0145
The second match in Group B should be fairly interesting. Whoever wins this one should have a shot at reaching the knockout stages in their last group games. A draw would be ok for Peru, but with Chile left to play I would expect them to really go for this match. Mexico really are an unknown quantity to all but keen followers of their domestic league. It is a real chance for their young players to impress both their national manager and also any scouts at the games. For this reason they should not be underestimated, but equally Peru will rightly be favs for this match up. This being said I think Sportingbet have gone way out on a limb pricing Peru at 2.5 and I'd advise taking those odds now before they go.
Brazil v Paraguay, Saturday 2000
The evening match on Saturday sees my tournament tips Brazil taking on Paraguay. Brazil stuttered in their first match, having trouble breaking down a resiliant Venezuela side and finishing up 0-0. Venezuela have recently impressed in youth tournaments and some of the more impressive juniors are now making a name for themselves in the senior side. This is making Group C look like the most interesting group as every team has a chance of qualifying. Brazil are no longer the Samba, Joga Bonita side of old. They have something of a 'broken team', with the centre backs and central midfield instructed to stay back and hold whilst the full backs and forwards push on. Neymar looked disappointing to those expecting some sort of Messi Mark II with quotes of a £40mil price tag knocking around. He is not one to battle when it's tough going. Paraguay also opened up with a 0-0 draw, this time against Ecuador. I personally view Ecuador as better than Paraguay in a team sense and can easily see them being over-run by Brazil in this. Brazil will be keen to pick up a win and a cushion in their last match against the always tricky Ecuadorians. Back them -1.0 asian with Victor Chandler at 2.18.
Venezuela v Ecuador, Saturday 2230
Final match of these second round of games has 2 under-rated sides meeting. Both Venezuela and Ecuador picked up draws in their opening matches when starting as outsiders. In the case of Venezuela, they may well be a side to watch in the coming years. As mentioned, they have done well in youth tournaments in the last decade and it looks like they're beginning to reap the rewards. With Paraguay looking tired, and Uruguay with a World Cup hangover, they may well even qualify for Brazil 2014. Ecuador have become something of a fixture at World Cup's recently. Whilst they haven't got any superstars except maybe Antonio Valencia, they are a fantastic team who punch well above their weight. Goals have always been something of a problem for them though. However commma I can see some goals in this one. I think both sides will see this as the most winnable match and throw men forward accordingly. William Hill are as long as 2.5 for over 2.5 goals and I think that should be snapped up.
Wednesday, 6 July 2011
Friday, 1 July 2011
Copa Load Of This...
Do you see what I did there? Tomorrow at 0145 GMT we finally have the kick-off in the first match of possibly the most colourful, entertaining, violent tournament in world football today, the Copa America. Argentina are hosting this feast of latin football, and I'm hopeful we'l see some cracking football, plenty of goals and hopefully some players we haven't seen a lot of yet. I would personally have my eyes open for Ganso of Brazil and Guarin of Uruguay. Both have been mentioned as fantastic players in certain publications, but have yet to capture the world's imagination and this could well be the tournament where they do that. I will look at each round of games as a group of six matches and publish every 4 or 5 days during the tournament to make sure I cover the lot.
Argentina v Bolivia, 0145 Saturday
As mentioned, the first match sees the hosts Argentina taking on perennial no-hopers Bolivia. Bolivia's most famous player is probably Marco Etcheverry, most remembered for getting sent off within minutes of his only World Cup appearance. Apart from that they have mostly been on the wrong end of some bad beatings. Argentina come into the tournament having lost a couple of recent friendlies, but not too much should be read into those. Sergio Batista has been blooding all sorts of fringe players of late to help him narrow down his squad and most, if not all, of them are unlikely to feature at all in this tournament. The Argentine public also view this as a chance to cast the country in a good light and the players will not be short of encouragement to do so. And they have the best player in football, which can't hurt can it? I would be backing a heavy win here. Even though the Albiceleste have a dodgy backline, I wouldn't expect Bolivia to score. I think the best value is on a bet of Argentina to win both halves at 1.8 with Stan James.
Colombia v Costa Rica, 1930 Saturday
Second game also comes from Group A and sees my outside tip, Colombia, taking on another whipping boy in Costa Rica. Costa Rica are probably most famous in this country for the bandy legged wonder Paolo Wanchope, a man who seemingly never knew himself what his legs were up to! These days they have no players in any big European Leagues and will probably be content to head home post tournament without suffering any embarrassments. Colombia contain Europe's most wanted striker in Radamel Falcao, a man who seemingly has it all in terms of the modern forward. He is also relatively free of ego, a rare trait in the modern footballer. I think he'll end up at Real Madrid as he has signed with Jose's dodgy agent friend Jorge Mendes, Skybet were 5.0 on that eventuality and I'd still be tempted at any price 4.0 or above. They also have his Porto teammate Freddy Guarin, who provided his supply line for most of the season. If these 2 can again link up then Colombia could go far here. I would back them -1.5 asian at 2.05 with Bet365 for this opening game.
Brazil v Venezuela, 2000 Sunday
Third game in and we see the other half of South America's big two with Brazil getting involved against another minnow in Venezuela. Venezuela have never been to the World Cup and have no pedigree in major tournaments at all. They are a small country and have never produced any players you or I would have heard of. This is absolutely no reason to right them off completely as a team, but they should provide no task for the might of Brazil. Under new coach Mario Menezes, Brazil have restructured the side. They are still tight at the back, a Dunga trait, but have blooded new, exciting players in the forward line as well as more attacking full backs. Lucas of Liverpool is also now a regular, mostly to provide extra cover when Marcelo and Dani Alves (the cheating prick of a man) go bombing on forward from full back. They usually start with Neymar, Pato and Ganso as a fluid triumvirate in the forward line now. All three are under 22 and come with the speed and audacity you might expect, also in Neymar's case some of the most pathetic diving you'll ever see. He'll seriously never make a career in England with the way he throws himself in the air now. I see this going a very similar way to Argentina's opener and will be betting the same market. I think there is some excellent value in Paddy Power quotes of 2.3 on Brazil to win both halves. Get involved with that.
Paraguay v Ecuador, 2230 Sunday
Fourth match in and we finally see a more even contest. Paraguay have been something of a force in South America for the last decade, producing players like Roque Santa Cruz and Lucas Barrios who have done well in Europe and aided them qualifying for World Cups. But, Santa Cruz looks half a man these days and his season at Blackburn where he scored a number of goals now looks like a one-off. They are simply not the team they were even a year ago. Other players like Paolo Da Silva and Cristian Riveros have ended up at European sides (Sunderland in this case) and found themselves out of the side and low on match practise and confidence. Ecuador on the other hand are always a danger. Whilst they have never really had a 'superstar' player, they are always a tight team unit and can cause most teams problems given the chance. Antonio Valencia will be their star man having returned strongly from injury for Man Utd at the end of the season. I think they are more than capable of giving Paraguay a scare, but it will probably be a low-scoring affair with both teams keen not to lose with Brazil also in Group B. Take the Draw or Ecuador in the Double Chance market at 1.9 with Skybet.
Uruguay v Peru, 2315 Monday
The final matches of this first round of games come from Group C. First up is World Cup surprise package Uruguay against Peru. Peru have probably not had much to shout about since the days of Trumpet playing Nobby Solano. They will probably be another team happy to escape the tournament having not suffered too heavy a defeat on the way. Uruguay's players have been on a high since the World Cup and in some cases have been on fire. This is particularly true of Napoli's Edison Cavani who ended the season as top scorer in Serie A and has been linked with a move away to a major team. Luis Suarez also finished the season well after transferring to Liverpool, looking like the only bit of creativity in a fairly workmanlike Pool side. Diego Forlan was the exception. After a couple of brilliant seasons at Atletico Madrid a fall out with management led to him often finding himself on the bench and angling for a move away from Spain's capital. This could well lead to some sluggish performances or a glorious swansong before one last big move. I would expect Uruguay to win this comfortably and will be backing them to win to nil at 2.0 with Ladbrokes as they have one of the best defences in South America.
Chile v Mexico, 0145 Tuesday
Last match of this tips blog comes from Group C in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Chile were a lot of people's outsiders for a decent World Cup run under Marcelo Bielsa and his somewhat different 3-3-1-3 formation. Sadly, the attacking flair that saw them looking excellent in qualifying deserted them at the tournament proper. Bielsa, having always been somewhat tricky to work with, was dispensed with after their exit. Their new coach, Claudio Borghi, has sought to make them a more difficult to beat side and they have lost some of the magic that made them a second team for many neutrals. Mexico have just come from winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup, North America's premier tournament, having spanked the USA 4-2 in the final. They have given a number of players time-off after that and head to this tournament with a team entirely made up of players from the Mexican League and Gio Dos Santos of Spurs. They may well see this as a chance to experiment and see how some fringe players cope with top level football. I certainly would not expect them to make too much of an impression. I wouldn't expect Mexico to have much to offer in attack in the absence of Man Utd's Javier Hernandez so I think Chile might well keep a clean sheet here. Ladbrokes go 2.1 on that possibility and I'll go for that in this one.
Argentina v Bolivia, 0145 Saturday
As mentioned, the first match sees the hosts Argentina taking on perennial no-hopers Bolivia. Bolivia's most famous player is probably Marco Etcheverry, most remembered for getting sent off within minutes of his only World Cup appearance. Apart from that they have mostly been on the wrong end of some bad beatings. Argentina come into the tournament having lost a couple of recent friendlies, but not too much should be read into those. Sergio Batista has been blooding all sorts of fringe players of late to help him narrow down his squad and most, if not all, of them are unlikely to feature at all in this tournament. The Argentine public also view this as a chance to cast the country in a good light and the players will not be short of encouragement to do so. And they have the best player in football, which can't hurt can it? I would be backing a heavy win here. Even though the Albiceleste have a dodgy backline, I wouldn't expect Bolivia to score. I think the best value is on a bet of Argentina to win both halves at 1.8 with Stan James.
Colombia v Costa Rica, 1930 Saturday
Second game also comes from Group A and sees my outside tip, Colombia, taking on another whipping boy in Costa Rica. Costa Rica are probably most famous in this country for the bandy legged wonder Paolo Wanchope, a man who seemingly never knew himself what his legs were up to! These days they have no players in any big European Leagues and will probably be content to head home post tournament without suffering any embarrassments. Colombia contain Europe's most wanted striker in Radamel Falcao, a man who seemingly has it all in terms of the modern forward. He is also relatively free of ego, a rare trait in the modern footballer. I think he'll end up at Real Madrid as he has signed with Jose's dodgy agent friend Jorge Mendes, Skybet were 5.0 on that eventuality and I'd still be tempted at any price 4.0 or above. They also have his Porto teammate Freddy Guarin, who provided his supply line for most of the season. If these 2 can again link up then Colombia could go far here. I would back them -1.5 asian at 2.05 with Bet365 for this opening game.
Brazil v Venezuela, 2000 Sunday
Third game in and we see the other half of South America's big two with Brazil getting involved against another minnow in Venezuela. Venezuela have never been to the World Cup and have no pedigree in major tournaments at all. They are a small country and have never produced any players you or I would have heard of. This is absolutely no reason to right them off completely as a team, but they should provide no task for the might of Brazil. Under new coach Mario Menezes, Brazil have restructured the side. They are still tight at the back, a Dunga trait, but have blooded new, exciting players in the forward line as well as more attacking full backs. Lucas of Liverpool is also now a regular, mostly to provide extra cover when Marcelo and Dani Alves (the cheating prick of a man) go bombing on forward from full back. They usually start with Neymar, Pato and Ganso as a fluid triumvirate in the forward line now. All three are under 22 and come with the speed and audacity you might expect, also in Neymar's case some of the most pathetic diving you'll ever see. He'll seriously never make a career in England with the way he throws himself in the air now. I see this going a very similar way to Argentina's opener and will be betting the same market. I think there is some excellent value in Paddy Power quotes of 2.3 on Brazil to win both halves. Get involved with that.
Paraguay v Ecuador, 2230 Sunday
Fourth match in and we finally see a more even contest. Paraguay have been something of a force in South America for the last decade, producing players like Roque Santa Cruz and Lucas Barrios who have done well in Europe and aided them qualifying for World Cups. But, Santa Cruz looks half a man these days and his season at Blackburn where he scored a number of goals now looks like a one-off. They are simply not the team they were even a year ago. Other players like Paolo Da Silva and Cristian Riveros have ended up at European sides (Sunderland in this case) and found themselves out of the side and low on match practise and confidence. Ecuador on the other hand are always a danger. Whilst they have never really had a 'superstar' player, they are always a tight team unit and can cause most teams problems given the chance. Antonio Valencia will be their star man having returned strongly from injury for Man Utd at the end of the season. I think they are more than capable of giving Paraguay a scare, but it will probably be a low-scoring affair with both teams keen not to lose with Brazil also in Group B. Take the Draw or Ecuador in the Double Chance market at 1.9 with Skybet.
Uruguay v Peru, 2315 Monday
The final matches of this first round of games come from Group C. First up is World Cup surprise package Uruguay against Peru. Peru have probably not had much to shout about since the days of Trumpet playing Nobby Solano. They will probably be another team happy to escape the tournament having not suffered too heavy a defeat on the way. Uruguay's players have been on a high since the World Cup and in some cases have been on fire. This is particularly true of Napoli's Edison Cavani who ended the season as top scorer in Serie A and has been linked with a move away to a major team. Luis Suarez also finished the season well after transferring to Liverpool, looking like the only bit of creativity in a fairly workmanlike Pool side. Diego Forlan was the exception. After a couple of brilliant seasons at Atletico Madrid a fall out with management led to him often finding himself on the bench and angling for a move away from Spain's capital. This could well lead to some sluggish performances or a glorious swansong before one last big move. I would expect Uruguay to win this comfortably and will be backing them to win to nil at 2.0 with Ladbrokes as they have one of the best defences in South America.
Chile v Mexico, 0145 Tuesday
Last match of this tips blog comes from Group C in the early hours of Tuesday morning. Chile were a lot of people's outsiders for a decent World Cup run under Marcelo Bielsa and his somewhat different 3-3-1-3 formation. Sadly, the attacking flair that saw them looking excellent in qualifying deserted them at the tournament proper. Bielsa, having always been somewhat tricky to work with, was dispensed with after their exit. Their new coach, Claudio Borghi, has sought to make them a more difficult to beat side and they have lost some of the magic that made them a second team for many neutrals. Mexico have just come from winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup, North America's premier tournament, having spanked the USA 4-2 in the final. They have given a number of players time-off after that and head to this tournament with a team entirely made up of players from the Mexican League and Gio Dos Santos of Spurs. They may well see this as a chance to experiment and see how some fringe players cope with top level football. I certainly would not expect them to make too much of an impression. I wouldn't expect Mexico to have much to offer in attack in the absence of Man Utd's Javier Hernandez so I think Chile might well keep a clean sheet here. Ladbrokes go 2.1 on that possibility and I'll go for that in this one.
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