A special treat for you all as I wanted a break from Xmas preparations so I'm going to do a midweek set of tips. There may not be as many as a weekend, but with English, Italian and Turkish top divisions having a full programme I'm sure we'll find a few!
Those of you that do follow at weekends will have been rewarded with six out of eight tips coming in, and most at above even money. This should have left you with some extra Xmas funds to spend down the pub. Or with loved ones, your choice. There were even a few extra winners for followers on Twitter @TopTopTips. I dare say there are few tipsters dishing out winners like this of late? A quick word of warning on that front though. If you're serious about betting then you should know this sort of fantastic weekend is the exception rather than the rule. Whilst I would seriously hope to show profit overall, it will not be at those levels. The bookies are rarely wrong, and even if you're finding value, it is by no means a guarantee of a winner.
Anyhoo, on to tipping!
Wolves v Norwich, Tuesday 1945
Norwich have been very kind to us this season and again obliged by denying Everton a win at the weekend. As I have mentioned before, they actually have a much better set of forwards than you may think from the names. Grant Holt, Steve Morison and Wes Hoolahan may have spent their careers away from this level, but they work as a unit and are proving a handful for most. Holt again netted at the weekend, using his immense girth to hold off his marker before pivoting like a prima ballerina to score. Their goalkeeper John Ruddy (ex-Cambridge United I might add) again enhanced his slim hopes of an international call up with a great performance. All in all they're a good team, no flash individuals, but a great unit and immense credit should go to Paul Lambert for that.
Wolves looked poor and somewhat stale in losing at home to a reinvigorated Stoke side at the weekend. Professional Yorkshireman Mick McCarthy may be amusingly no-nonsense, but you can imagine players failing to be roused by him at times. And that is the difference between these two sides at the moment. You wouldn't say there's a lot to choose between the sides on paper, although Wolves obviously cost more and have more experience, so blame for me fancying Norwich must lie with Big Mick's management. At present they're unbackable for me.
Back Norwich Draw No Bet at 2.5 with Coral.
Aston Villa v Arsenal, Wednesday 1945
Those of you who settled in for a solid days football yesterday will have no doubt been disappointed in the Aston Villa v Liverpool match if you were anything but a Pool fan. Villa looked absolutely useless. I have also commented before on how bad they've looked at times under the unpopular Alec McLeish, but I'll make the point again. He has shown throughout his managerial career that he is more than happy to forego passing or flair in favour of grinding out wins. In most away games you can exchange wins for draws. This is all well and good at a small or broke club, but it leaves you nowhere to hide when you are not getting results, and he isn't.
Arsenal, on the other hand, were involved in a great game at Eastland's against likely champions Man City. The match quite literally could have gone either way, and Arsenal had very legitimate shouts for a penalty to look back on as a turning point. They shouldn't have their usual issues with a hangover from a loss as there really were lots of positives to take, even in defeat. They must know they are no longer serious champion material, so to hang in their and almost get something at a ground that has not seen a home defeat this calendar year should be applauded. I think they'll be relishing a trip to Villa with the way they are playing.
Back Arsenal at 1.8 with Paddy Power.
Udinese v Juventus, Wednesday 1700
A top of the table clash in Serie A as they head for a winter break. Udinese were expected to revert back to an upper mid-table side after selling star players Alexis Sanchez and Gokhlan Inler over the summer, but have instead decided to attempt a title push. A lot of this has rested upon the evergreen shoulders of striker Antonio Di Natale, who at 34 is still banging them in. He was rested in the excellent 2-2 draw at Lazio on Sunday in anticipation of this game and will be looking forward to a chance to fire them top at Xmas. They are a very solid side who have only conceded two in seven home matches whilst scoring fourteen.
Juventus have also exceeded expectations in Antonio Conte's first season in charge. They flirted with danger last season so just getting back in European contendership would have been a reasonable target. However comma Conte has got them playing well above their previous efforts and brought the best out of Milos Krasic amongst others to see them joint top. They are unbeaten in seven away matches, but have shown a tendency to leak goals and have managed to draw four away. I think their unbeaten season may well come to an end in Udine.
Back Udinese at 3.1 with Victor Chandler.
Mersin Idman Yurdu v Eskisehirspor, Wednesday 1600
One of two tips from the Super Lig is promoted Mersin hosting in-form Eskisehir. Mersin have started the season well only losing to Fenerbahce, Bursaspor and Besiktas in their matches so far at home. They haven't scored many before this weekend when they somehow conjured five to win 5-3 away at Karabukspor. It was, as you'd imagine, a bit of a poor day for defenders all round though and should probably be discounted when taking into account the season as a whole. They have played eight, won three, drawn two and lost those three at home so far. They have both scored and conceded eight in those matches too to emphasise what a tight lot they usually are.
Eskisehirspor have again climbed the table on the back of being able to grind out tight wins at home so far this season. They did so again at the weekend with a 1-0 victory over Kayserispor. They have now won five on the bounce, with the last four all being 1-0 wins. As I mentioned at the weekend they build on a sturdy defence and defence minded midfield and look to snatch a goal to win. I think with Mersin's rather miserly forwards only averaging a goal a game they should be able to hold them off.
Back Eskisehirspor Draw No Bet at 2.1 with Coral.
Galatasaray v Manisaspor, Wednesday 1830
In Turkey at the moment no team is playing as well as Gala. They are rolling teams over with ease at present with the forwards Johan Elmander and Milan Baros particularly impressing. Baros may well be one of the more selfish strikers you'll see, but pair him with a big man like Elmander and give him the chances, and you're on to a winner. He scored again in an impressive performance in beating Orduspor away. At home they have only lost once, and that was very early on, and have scored fourteen in seven whilst only conceding eight. They have only conceded two in the last eight matches and have won six of those, including the last four.
Manisaspor started out brightly and have been as high as fourth in the table. They have now moved back into a more expected eight position now though as they are without a win in four. They have struggled for goals at times as is apparent from only sixteen goals in sixteen games evenly shared between their eight home and away matches. They have only lost once away, but they have drawn five of eight and are probably due a thrashing at present. Gala will fancy their chances of providing that, and I do too.
Back Galatasaray -1.5 at 2.15 with Bet365.
Monday, 19 December 2011
Friday, 16 December 2011
The day after the night before...
Well, unfortunately Dave did not win at the NOPA's, but a great night was had meeting everyone. Hopefully the blog will continue to grow and it was great to be in the company of some major league writers/bloggers, Jonathan Wilson (swoon).
There hasn't been a great deal of football on this week really. We saw Man City probably slightly unfortunately lose their unbeaten record having been denied a penalty then losing Gael Clichy to a red card. Fair play to Chelsea though, they seem to have moved on from their early season misery. The African CON in January may again be a time to get against them though as Didier Drogba has become all-important part of the side again. Fernando Torres looks to me like he's on a permanent slide now he clearly doesn't trust his legs/hamstrings, they could struggle again yet.
This morning's Champions League draw has thrown Italian teams at the remaining English sides with Arsenal and Chelsea drawing AC Milan and Napoli respectively. Both should be interesting ties with Napoli's attacking pace against Chelsea's less than speedy backline and Arsenal and AC seem reasonably matched to me too. I will try and get midweek blogs up when it comes to the European competitions re-starting as there will no doubt be some good opportunities.
Music comes from Iron Chic with Black Friday.
Everton v Norwich City, Saturday 1500
Having gained some profit backing Norwich at home to Newcastle last weekend, I again think they represent value this week. Norwich have rarely looked overawed this season, and only Man City seem to have been able to run clean over them. The strike force of Steve Morison and Grant Holt may well look distinctly lower league on paper, but they have shown that endeavour and brute force can reap rewards whatever the stage. They gave Newcastle's makeshift backline a torrid time last week and will fancy themselves to continue in that vain again.
Everton have not quite turned round their appalling start quite yet. The problem is an age old one for them too, they have no recognised striker who can get 15-20 goals a season. This leaves them unable to get ahead of teams and into a comfortable position. The release of Yakubu is beginning to look a bit of a strange decision, especially since Moyes seems not to think much of Louis Saha and his summer signings have yet to make an impact. All in all, it's becoming a bit stale at Goodison and might be best for all involved if there is a shake-up soon.
Back Norwich and Draw Double Chance at 2.3 with William Hill.
Man City v Arsenal, Sunday 1610
The biggest match this weekend is saved until Sunday afternoon with Arsenal travelling to the fortress of Eastland's. Man City's unbeaten league run was ended on Monday night by Chelsea, but they performed well enough in places and will feel had the penalty decision gone their way the result might have been different. It will be a test of Mancini's management to respond to the defeat positively, and a win against a team of Arsenal's calibre would be a statement that the Chelsea game was a blip, not the start of a slump. They will no doubt look to David Silva as usual to be the creative fulcrum of the side, and he will probably be allowed time by Arsenal's midfield.
Arsenal have won seven of the last eight in the league, but against opponents barring Chelsea that were nowhere near the level of this City side. They have also been heavily reliant on Robin Van Persie to provide not only goals, but leadership too as he is now one of the more experienced members of the side. Fortunately he seems to be thriving upon the added responsibility and has probably been the best striker in football for around 12 months now. They are now missing all their full backs though, and you would imagine Mancini will devise some way to attack that weakness.
Back Man City at 1.75 with Victor Chandler.
Sevilla v Real Madrid, Saturday 2100
The late match in La Liga sees Jose Mourinho taking his Real Madrid side to Seville looking to get back on track after losing El Clasico. As has been pointed out by the ever excellent Tim Stannard amongst others some of Real's biggest stars seem unable to perform at their best against Barca. Cristiano Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos particularly affected. They both seem to be almost trying too hard to show they can be better than Barca's stars and their performances become erratic. The wonderful Mesut Ozil was completely overwhelmed by the midfield tiki taka of Barca and was ineffectual too. I can see the hangover still being there a little bit and have no faith in Madrid at around 1.45.
Sevilla have been near the top of La Liga regularly now for most of the last decade. They have a fantastic scouting network and youth system which has recently produced the likes of Sergio Ramos, Dani Alves and Jesus Navas. This has enabled them to play fast paced football and with an attacking style. This season though, they have been almost as reliant on an extremely tight backline. They have only conceded eleven goals in total and will hope to keep that statistic going in this home match.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.5 at Ladbrokes.
Osasuna v Villarreal, Sunday 1700
Secong tip from Spain has under-performing Villarreal travelling to Osasuna. Osasuna are a stable mid-table sort of team in Spain, similar to a Stoke in many ways. They rely heavily on a tough physical approach and excellent home form to try and push for European football on occasion. This season has been no different on that front. They sit seventh in the table and are still unbeaten at home in seven matches. They have also only conceded four goals in those games whilst scoring eleven to make them formidable at home.
Villarreal I have discussed previously. They have done exceptionally well to rise to the level they now are at, but this season looks likely to be a long struggle. They have very little creativity unlike in previous seasons having lost the likes of Riqelme and Cana. They are also missing Guiseppe Rossi all season and he was their most reliable goal threat by a long way. Nilmar has also spent a lot of the last twelve months out and with both of those two missing it is no wonder they are struggling to win games.
Back Osasuna at 2.2 with Coral.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
The last match in the Bundesliga is my only German tip this week. It's blog favourites Gladbach hosting Mainz. I am hoping that after Gladbach failed to beat bottom side Augsburg last weekend they will be keen to make a statement that their season is not already petering out. They seemed sluggish in that match so the weeks rest they have had should also aid their chances. Marco Reus's form as been key to their best showings and he should hopefully be fully fit this weekend to try and help his side go into xmas off the back of a win.
Mainz showed last season that they have some talented young players. They ended up falling away somewhat, but their youth and hard-pressing game plan have again caused teams problems this season. They beat Bayern Munich recently in a performance that owed a lot to their constant harrying and without Schweinsteiger, Bayern didn't have anyone to win in the midfield. They have been pretty tight at the back, but have drawn most of their away matches. Their record reads won one, drawn five and lost one. I would imagine they'll come for a draw and it will be up to Gladbach to break them down.
Back Monchengladbach at 1.9 with Victor Chandler.
Catania v Palermo, Sunday 1400
In Serie A we see Palermo taking their terrible away form to Catania. Catania have been very impressive under managerial newcomer Vincenzo Montella. Their style of football might not exactly be Barcelona-esque, but they are getting good results and are far from dull. Saying that though, they really could do with more goals going in. In fourteen matches they have only scored fifteen goals, and that could hurt them in terms of rising any higher than the mid-table position they currently occupy.
Palermo have been one of the strangest stories in Europa in terms of their away form. They have somehow managed to still not score at all in seven away matches whilst conceding nine goals in the same time. They have picked up two 0-0 draws, but they somehow cannot get a goal. At home they have scored sixteen in seven and won six too, so clearly their is performances in the players. You really can't look beyond getting against them away though, as the stats don't lie.
Back Catania at 2.25 with Coral.
Eskisehirspor v Kayserispor, Saturday 1400
The first tip from the Super Lig is high flying Eskisehirspor hosting Kayserispor. Eskisehirspor had excellent home form last season which saw them challenging for European qualification before they ran out of steam a bit and fell away to upper mid-table. That home form has again seen them rise to the heady heights of fourth, but once again goalscoring may well be prohibitive to a concerted push. They have won four, drawn one and lost two at home, both scoring and conceding seven in the process. They were only narrowly beaten in both the matches they lost and they were back in October.
Kayseispor have been a bit hit and miss, also very similar to last season. They sit in eight position and most of that is down to their poor away record of losing four and winning three from seven. They have only scored six in those matches and conceded eight so they are not being thrashed at all, but a team like Eskisehir should be able to deny them the opportunities whilst hopefully nicking a goal.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.1 with SportingBet.
Manisaspor v Genclerbirligi, Sunday 1100
The second tip from Turkey is another early surprise package in Manisaspor hosting Genclerbirligi. Manis have not really showed anything in previous seasons to suggest that they would surge up the table this season, but that is what they have done. They sit in fifth and it is mainly due to them being extremely tough to beat and relatively tight at the back for a Super Lig side. They have only lost three times in fifteen matches as well as only conceding fourteen. That they have also only scored sixteen is testament to how they are able to produce results in tight matches.
Genclerbirligi have been a lot more exciting team, but their away form is their undoing. They have only been beaten once at home, but have lost four from seven, with only one win, away from home. They have also conceded fourteen in those seven away games as well as only scoring six. This should give Manis enough encouragement to think they can grab a goal and keep Gencler out.
Back Manisaspor at 2.1 with BlueSquare.
There hasn't been a great deal of football on this week really. We saw Man City probably slightly unfortunately lose their unbeaten record having been denied a penalty then losing Gael Clichy to a red card. Fair play to Chelsea though, they seem to have moved on from their early season misery. The African CON in January may again be a time to get against them though as Didier Drogba has become all-important part of the side again. Fernando Torres looks to me like he's on a permanent slide now he clearly doesn't trust his legs/hamstrings, they could struggle again yet.
This morning's Champions League draw has thrown Italian teams at the remaining English sides with Arsenal and Chelsea drawing AC Milan and Napoli respectively. Both should be interesting ties with Napoli's attacking pace against Chelsea's less than speedy backline and Arsenal and AC seem reasonably matched to me too. I will try and get midweek blogs up when it comes to the European competitions re-starting as there will no doubt be some good opportunities.
Music comes from Iron Chic with Black Friday.
Everton v Norwich City, Saturday 1500
Having gained some profit backing Norwich at home to Newcastle last weekend, I again think they represent value this week. Norwich have rarely looked overawed this season, and only Man City seem to have been able to run clean over them. The strike force of Steve Morison and Grant Holt may well look distinctly lower league on paper, but they have shown that endeavour and brute force can reap rewards whatever the stage. They gave Newcastle's makeshift backline a torrid time last week and will fancy themselves to continue in that vain again.
Everton have not quite turned round their appalling start quite yet. The problem is an age old one for them too, they have no recognised striker who can get 15-20 goals a season. This leaves them unable to get ahead of teams and into a comfortable position. The release of Yakubu is beginning to look a bit of a strange decision, especially since Moyes seems not to think much of Louis Saha and his summer signings have yet to make an impact. All in all, it's becoming a bit stale at Goodison and might be best for all involved if there is a shake-up soon.
Back Norwich and Draw Double Chance at 2.3 with William Hill.
Man City v Arsenal, Sunday 1610
The biggest match this weekend is saved until Sunday afternoon with Arsenal travelling to the fortress of Eastland's. Man City's unbeaten league run was ended on Monday night by Chelsea, but they performed well enough in places and will feel had the penalty decision gone their way the result might have been different. It will be a test of Mancini's management to respond to the defeat positively, and a win against a team of Arsenal's calibre would be a statement that the Chelsea game was a blip, not the start of a slump. They will no doubt look to David Silva as usual to be the creative fulcrum of the side, and he will probably be allowed time by Arsenal's midfield.
Arsenal have won seven of the last eight in the league, but against opponents barring Chelsea that were nowhere near the level of this City side. They have also been heavily reliant on Robin Van Persie to provide not only goals, but leadership too as he is now one of the more experienced members of the side. Fortunately he seems to be thriving upon the added responsibility and has probably been the best striker in football for around 12 months now. They are now missing all their full backs though, and you would imagine Mancini will devise some way to attack that weakness.
Back Man City at 1.75 with Victor Chandler.
Sevilla v Real Madrid, Saturday 2100
The late match in La Liga sees Jose Mourinho taking his Real Madrid side to Seville looking to get back on track after losing El Clasico. As has been pointed out by the ever excellent Tim Stannard amongst others some of Real's biggest stars seem unable to perform at their best against Barca. Cristiano Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos particularly affected. They both seem to be almost trying too hard to show they can be better than Barca's stars and their performances become erratic. The wonderful Mesut Ozil was completely overwhelmed by the midfield tiki taka of Barca and was ineffectual too. I can see the hangover still being there a little bit and have no faith in Madrid at around 1.45.
Sevilla have been near the top of La Liga regularly now for most of the last decade. They have a fantastic scouting network and youth system which has recently produced the likes of Sergio Ramos, Dani Alves and Jesus Navas. This has enabled them to play fast paced football and with an attacking style. This season though, they have been almost as reliant on an extremely tight backline. They have only conceded eleven goals in total and will hope to keep that statistic going in this home match.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.5 at Ladbrokes.
Osasuna v Villarreal, Sunday 1700
Secong tip from Spain has under-performing Villarreal travelling to Osasuna. Osasuna are a stable mid-table sort of team in Spain, similar to a Stoke in many ways. They rely heavily on a tough physical approach and excellent home form to try and push for European football on occasion. This season has been no different on that front. They sit seventh in the table and are still unbeaten at home in seven matches. They have also only conceded four goals in those games whilst scoring eleven to make them formidable at home.
Villarreal I have discussed previously. They have done exceptionally well to rise to the level they now are at, but this season looks likely to be a long struggle. They have very little creativity unlike in previous seasons having lost the likes of Riqelme and Cana. They are also missing Guiseppe Rossi all season and he was their most reliable goal threat by a long way. Nilmar has also spent a lot of the last twelve months out and with both of those two missing it is no wonder they are struggling to win games.
Back Osasuna at 2.2 with Coral.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
The last match in the Bundesliga is my only German tip this week. It's blog favourites Gladbach hosting Mainz. I am hoping that after Gladbach failed to beat bottom side Augsburg last weekend they will be keen to make a statement that their season is not already petering out. They seemed sluggish in that match so the weeks rest they have had should also aid their chances. Marco Reus's form as been key to their best showings and he should hopefully be fully fit this weekend to try and help his side go into xmas off the back of a win.
Mainz showed last season that they have some talented young players. They ended up falling away somewhat, but their youth and hard-pressing game plan have again caused teams problems this season. They beat Bayern Munich recently in a performance that owed a lot to their constant harrying and without Schweinsteiger, Bayern didn't have anyone to win in the midfield. They have been pretty tight at the back, but have drawn most of their away matches. Their record reads won one, drawn five and lost one. I would imagine they'll come for a draw and it will be up to Gladbach to break them down.
Back Monchengladbach at 1.9 with Victor Chandler.
Catania v Palermo, Sunday 1400
In Serie A we see Palermo taking their terrible away form to Catania. Catania have been very impressive under managerial newcomer Vincenzo Montella. Their style of football might not exactly be Barcelona-esque, but they are getting good results and are far from dull. Saying that though, they really could do with more goals going in. In fourteen matches they have only scored fifteen goals, and that could hurt them in terms of rising any higher than the mid-table position they currently occupy.
Palermo have been one of the strangest stories in Europa in terms of their away form. They have somehow managed to still not score at all in seven away matches whilst conceding nine goals in the same time. They have picked up two 0-0 draws, but they somehow cannot get a goal. At home they have scored sixteen in seven and won six too, so clearly their is performances in the players. You really can't look beyond getting against them away though, as the stats don't lie.
Back Catania at 2.25 with Coral.
Eskisehirspor v Kayserispor, Saturday 1400
The first tip from the Super Lig is high flying Eskisehirspor hosting Kayserispor. Eskisehirspor had excellent home form last season which saw them challenging for European qualification before they ran out of steam a bit and fell away to upper mid-table. That home form has again seen them rise to the heady heights of fourth, but once again goalscoring may well be prohibitive to a concerted push. They have won four, drawn one and lost two at home, both scoring and conceding seven in the process. They were only narrowly beaten in both the matches they lost and they were back in October.
Kayseispor have been a bit hit and miss, also very similar to last season. They sit in eight position and most of that is down to their poor away record of losing four and winning three from seven. They have only scored six in those matches and conceded eight so they are not being thrashed at all, but a team like Eskisehir should be able to deny them the opportunities whilst hopefully nicking a goal.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.1 with SportingBet.
Manisaspor v Genclerbirligi, Sunday 1100
The second tip from Turkey is another early surprise package in Manisaspor hosting Genclerbirligi. Manis have not really showed anything in previous seasons to suggest that they would surge up the table this season, but that is what they have done. They sit in fifth and it is mainly due to them being extremely tough to beat and relatively tight at the back for a Super Lig side. They have only lost three times in fifteen matches as well as only conceding fourteen. That they have also only scored sixteen is testament to how they are able to produce results in tight matches.
Genclerbirligi have been a lot more exciting team, but their away form is their undoing. They have only been beaten once at home, but have lost four from seven, with only one win, away from home. They have also conceded fourteen in those seven away games as well as only scoring six. This should give Manis enough encouragement to think they can grab a goal and keep Gencler out.
Back Manisaspor at 2.1 with BlueSquare.
Thursday, 8 December 2011
Follow the Tipster...
This weeks title refers is a suggestion for those of you well versed in the social media world to follow me on the Twitter for some extra tips, particularly midweek when I sadly don't have the time to complete a full blog. You can find me by searching @TopTopTips if you are interested. This week I have posted some Champions League and Turkish Super Lig bets which have shown fantastic profit so hopefully some of you are already following.
Speaking of the Champions League, hasn't it been a funny week? Funny, haha, in Man Utd's case. Regular readers will know I have been banging on about how over-rated they have been by 'experts' and bookies alike. The complete lack of a decent midfielder and the ongoing hot and cold Wayne Rooney are just two of a myriad of reasons why they are failing to set the pitch alight. This week has seen them somehow conspire to exit the competition despite being drawn in a very weak group. And those of you who have watched the matches will know that it is generally the midfield battles that are going against them where more adept European teams are out-thinking and passing them. Man City also left the competition despite garnering a very respectable ten points and defeating Bayern Munich on Wednesday night. I would now imagine they stand a very good chance of winning the Europa League as even their reserves are now a frightening proposition compared to the sides in that cup.
Music comes from How Dare You with Week Of Heart Attacks.
Norwich v Newcastle, Saturday 1500
First tip is from Carrow Road with Norwich hosting Newcastle. Now, I tipped Newcastle as a bet last week at home to Chelsea and were Mike Riley to have correctly sent off David Luiz early on then we may well have seen a different outcome. However comma we didn't so we have to accept the loss and move on! The thing that has enabled Newcastle to enjoy their brilliant run this season has been a lack of injuries to their major players. Unfortunately last weekend we saw both centre halves depart injured and this leaves the Geordie's in dire straits. James Perch is a dreadful right back by trade and seeing him floundering at centre back in the Chelsea game may unfortunately be a site the fans get used to seeing for a while.
Norwich have been steadily picking up enough points to stear clear of the relegation places so far, but came unstuck in a massive way to Man City. There should really be no embarrassment around that humping, even Man Utd fared worse, but it does give them a kick in the pants. They have had a decent defeat coming from what I have seen and Paul Lambert should use the result as a way of getting them going again. Steve Morison may lack the touch of a Premier League player, but he is willing and will surely give the makeshift Newcastle defence a headache.
Back Norwich at 2.5 with BetFred.
Stoke v Tottenham, Sunday 1600
Another regular occurrence of late in this column has been backing Spurs. A shocking state of affairs I am sure you will agree, but I would challenge you to find a more reliable team besides Man City this term. The first eleven is as good as anyone besides the Blue Mooners and the midfield in particular is full of pace, flair and effort. Harry Redknapp could even afford to drop Rafa Van Der Vaart last time out at WBA in the knowledge Jermaine Defoe was performing well. It's a strange new world in the Prem, and nothing is stranger than Spurs being sure things.
On to Stoke, and they have been pretty abysmal of late. A win away at Everton in their last match should not disguise the fact that for a lot of the season so far they have looked slow and possibly have been figured out by many sides. They obviously rely on the physical side of the game more than any other side in the division, and when that side of the game fails they don't really have a Plan B. They will not like the pace Spurs will show them and after a weeks rest I can't see them having an enjoyable afternoon at all.
Back Tottenham at 2.1 with Victor Chandler.
Real Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 2100
The biggest match of the weekend is without doubt El Clasico in Spain with Barcelona travelling to Madrid to take on Jose Mourinho's men. Before the season started I advised backing Barcelona for the Liga title, but if they lose this they can almost kiss goodbye to that before Xmas. Jose has got Madrid winning with the sort of relentless intensity associated with his spell at Chelsea, but with added flair. The defence is as solid as you would expect from the Portugese, but with attackers like Ronaldo (the divey, prissy one), Ozil and the reborn Benzema they are racking up the goals too. I would go as far as to say they are currently ahead of Barcelona with the Catalans looking tired and in some cases desperate for form.
Barcelona have been winning with some class this season, but not as regularly as they have done in previous seasons. There are still 5-0 beatings handed out, but they are interspersed with 0-0 draws and games where they just can't kill teams off. This can probably be linked to the injuries to Iniesta and Xavi at points as well as the loss of form David Villa has been experiencing. At times it is Messi and Fabregas pulling them through games. In previous seasons the squad has tired and players have stepped in and done enough to keep the victories piling up, but this time it sometimes looks a bridge too far. They are meeting Madrid when they really could do without it and I think we may see Jose leaping around and winding people up late on Saturday night.
Back Real Madrid at 2.4 with William Hill.
Espanyol v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 2030
The late match on Sunday sees Madrid's other team travelling to Barcelona to take on Espanyol. Espanyol started the season exceptionally well to sit high up before a recent dip in form has seen them settle in around midtable. They haven't been outclassed in any of their recent matches though, just narrowly beaten. They looked good at times last week against a talented Valencia side, enough for me to think they are just a decent win away from a few good results. They have a few young players in their side who will inevitably need consoling after a defeat and one win can make all the difference in terms of the sides confidence heading into matches.
Atletico Madrid are simply being Atletico Madrid! They are an absolute mess of a club at the best of times, but this season perhaps as much as we have seen for a few years. They have played eight matches at home and won five and drawn three to remain unbeaten, however away they have yet to register anything more than a solitary draw from six outings. They can look great when Jose Reyes and Falcao are playing well, but sadly they have been more miss than hit of late. I don't see them arresting their poor away form just yet.
Back Espanyol at 3.0 on Betfair.
Augsburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Saturday 1430
First up from Germany is promoted Augsburg hosting this seasons surprise challengers Monchengladbach. Augsburg have shown plenty of willing so far, but sadly look destined for a return to the Bundesliga II as they have only two victories so far and sit bottom of the table. The problem is a leaky defence mainly that has conceded almost two goals a game on average. Sadly the majority of the players have little or no top flight knowhow and it shows at timess with some naive decisions and a gulf in class against the big boys.
Gladbach have been another favourite of mine this term having netted me a great deal of profit so far. Last weekend saw them draw with Dortmund and give us a refund on our Draw No Bet wager. They were again very impressive against a side that are looking likely to retain their title having found improved form. Gladbach started the season relying on 1-0 wins built on a solid tactical structure and the odd bit of flair from Marco Reus. Recently though, they have discovered an attacking verve that saw them blow Koln away in the derby two weeks ago. Reus has had a rest now and returns alongside the impressive Hause in midfield.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.0 with Victor Chandler.
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich, Sunday 1630
Sunday sees league leaders Munich travelling to Stuttgart for what should be a tough test. Stuttgart currently sit just behind the very top of the Bundesliga in seventh spot. They have a team built from the back and have only conceded more goals so far than the run-away top three. They have a decent home record too with four wins, two draws and two losses, both of which came early on. They are no slouches in front of goal either with fourteen in eight at home very good when combined with a measly seven conceded in the same matches.
Bayern started the season off like a train steam-rolling all in front of them with apparent ease. After the removal of Van Gaal and the appointment of Jupp Heynckes the team have again looked a lot happier and the football has followed. The transformation of Mario Gomez from something of a joke figure to one of Europe's most feared attackers has been a particular highlight so far. They have some great attackers with Gomez, Ribery and the returning Robben all playing well, but they rely heavily on Bastian Schweinsteiger holding it all together in midfield. His absence through injury has been noticed in recent games, particularly against the well drilled Mainz side that beat them recently. If Stuttgart can imitate their discipline and effort they have more than a chance of an upset.
Back Stuttgart and the Draw Double Chance at 2.5 with Coral.
Genclerbirligi v Orduspor, Sunday 1100
Sunday morning action from Turkey's Super Lig sees promoted Orduspor travelling to Gencler. I have previously mentioned that perhaps more so than in a lot of European leagues, home form seems a particular trait in Turkey. Gencler are by no means a brilliant side, and their position in twelfth highlights that, but they have only lost once at home all season. Even that was to a very good Galatasaray side who have gone top of the Super Lig by beating rivals Fenerbahce in mideek 3-1. Take that result away and they look very backable against most teams when at home.
Orduspor started the season very well and rose as high as fourth in the table. This could never be maintained though with a strikeforce that has only scored eleven goals so far, the second worst behind second bottom Samsunspor. They have not won in seven matches and look vulnerable when they can't score to being caught out by only one goal. They need some sort of boost to move back up the table, but sadly I see them descending towards a relegation scrap unless a striker is pulled out of a hat soon.
Back Genclerbirligi at 2.2 with Stan James.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
A real top of the table clash between two of Turkish football's big guns on Sunday afternoon. Trabzonspor ran Fenerbahce close last season and with match rigging allegations against Fener they have every reason to believe they were robbed of Super Lig glory. They drew with Lille this week to end their campaign in the Champions League dropping into the Europa League. They should not be ashamed though to do this as they were rank outsiders in a group containing Inter Milan, Lille and CSKA Moscow. They are a solid side who also contain players like Yilmaz capable of scoring the goals to beat most sides in Turkey.
Galatasaray went top of the table on Wednesday night after a 3-1 victory in the Istanbul derby over arch rivals Fenerbahce. They have been quietly stringing together a lengthy list of tight margin victories to put themselves in position to overtake Fener and they performed brilliantly in achieving it. This marin of victory owed a lot to the passion of the derby though. It is no normal match for either side and Fenerbahce chased victory as they may not have done in any other fixture. Let nothing take away from a very good win for Gala, they deserved it and should now push on and cement their league position.
Back Galatasaray at 3.0 with Stan James.
Speaking of the Champions League, hasn't it been a funny week? Funny, haha, in Man Utd's case. Regular readers will know I have been banging on about how over-rated they have been by 'experts' and bookies alike. The complete lack of a decent midfielder and the ongoing hot and cold Wayne Rooney are just two of a myriad of reasons why they are failing to set the pitch alight. This week has seen them somehow conspire to exit the competition despite being drawn in a very weak group. And those of you who have watched the matches will know that it is generally the midfield battles that are going against them where more adept European teams are out-thinking and passing them. Man City also left the competition despite garnering a very respectable ten points and defeating Bayern Munich on Wednesday night. I would now imagine they stand a very good chance of winning the Europa League as even their reserves are now a frightening proposition compared to the sides in that cup.
Music comes from How Dare You with Week Of Heart Attacks.
Norwich v Newcastle, Saturday 1500
First tip is from Carrow Road with Norwich hosting Newcastle. Now, I tipped Newcastle as a bet last week at home to Chelsea and were Mike Riley to have correctly sent off David Luiz early on then we may well have seen a different outcome. However comma we didn't so we have to accept the loss and move on! The thing that has enabled Newcastle to enjoy their brilliant run this season has been a lack of injuries to their major players. Unfortunately last weekend we saw both centre halves depart injured and this leaves the Geordie's in dire straits. James Perch is a dreadful right back by trade and seeing him floundering at centre back in the Chelsea game may unfortunately be a site the fans get used to seeing for a while.
Norwich have been steadily picking up enough points to stear clear of the relegation places so far, but came unstuck in a massive way to Man City. There should really be no embarrassment around that humping, even Man Utd fared worse, but it does give them a kick in the pants. They have had a decent defeat coming from what I have seen and Paul Lambert should use the result as a way of getting them going again. Steve Morison may lack the touch of a Premier League player, but he is willing and will surely give the makeshift Newcastle defence a headache.
Back Norwich at 2.5 with BetFred.
Stoke v Tottenham, Sunday 1600
Another regular occurrence of late in this column has been backing Spurs. A shocking state of affairs I am sure you will agree, but I would challenge you to find a more reliable team besides Man City this term. The first eleven is as good as anyone besides the Blue Mooners and the midfield in particular is full of pace, flair and effort. Harry Redknapp could even afford to drop Rafa Van Der Vaart last time out at WBA in the knowledge Jermaine Defoe was performing well. It's a strange new world in the Prem, and nothing is stranger than Spurs being sure things.
On to Stoke, and they have been pretty abysmal of late. A win away at Everton in their last match should not disguise the fact that for a lot of the season so far they have looked slow and possibly have been figured out by many sides. They obviously rely on the physical side of the game more than any other side in the division, and when that side of the game fails they don't really have a Plan B. They will not like the pace Spurs will show them and after a weeks rest I can't see them having an enjoyable afternoon at all.
Back Tottenham at 2.1 with Victor Chandler.
Real Madrid v Barcelona, Saturday 2100
The biggest match of the weekend is without doubt El Clasico in Spain with Barcelona travelling to Madrid to take on Jose Mourinho's men. Before the season started I advised backing Barcelona for the Liga title, but if they lose this they can almost kiss goodbye to that before Xmas. Jose has got Madrid winning with the sort of relentless intensity associated with his spell at Chelsea, but with added flair. The defence is as solid as you would expect from the Portugese, but with attackers like Ronaldo (the divey, prissy one), Ozil and the reborn Benzema they are racking up the goals too. I would go as far as to say they are currently ahead of Barcelona with the Catalans looking tired and in some cases desperate for form.
Barcelona have been winning with some class this season, but not as regularly as they have done in previous seasons. There are still 5-0 beatings handed out, but they are interspersed with 0-0 draws and games where they just can't kill teams off. This can probably be linked to the injuries to Iniesta and Xavi at points as well as the loss of form David Villa has been experiencing. At times it is Messi and Fabregas pulling them through games. In previous seasons the squad has tired and players have stepped in and done enough to keep the victories piling up, but this time it sometimes looks a bridge too far. They are meeting Madrid when they really could do without it and I think we may see Jose leaping around and winding people up late on Saturday night.
Back Real Madrid at 2.4 with William Hill.
Espanyol v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 2030
The late match on Sunday sees Madrid's other team travelling to Barcelona to take on Espanyol. Espanyol started the season exceptionally well to sit high up before a recent dip in form has seen them settle in around midtable. They haven't been outclassed in any of their recent matches though, just narrowly beaten. They looked good at times last week against a talented Valencia side, enough for me to think they are just a decent win away from a few good results. They have a few young players in their side who will inevitably need consoling after a defeat and one win can make all the difference in terms of the sides confidence heading into matches.
Atletico Madrid are simply being Atletico Madrid! They are an absolute mess of a club at the best of times, but this season perhaps as much as we have seen for a few years. They have played eight matches at home and won five and drawn three to remain unbeaten, however away they have yet to register anything more than a solitary draw from six outings. They can look great when Jose Reyes and Falcao are playing well, but sadly they have been more miss than hit of late. I don't see them arresting their poor away form just yet.
Back Espanyol at 3.0 on Betfair.
Augsburg v Borussia Monchengladbach, Saturday 1430
First up from Germany is promoted Augsburg hosting this seasons surprise challengers Monchengladbach. Augsburg have shown plenty of willing so far, but sadly look destined for a return to the Bundesliga II as they have only two victories so far and sit bottom of the table. The problem is a leaky defence mainly that has conceded almost two goals a game on average. Sadly the majority of the players have little or no top flight knowhow and it shows at timess with some naive decisions and a gulf in class against the big boys.
Gladbach have been another favourite of mine this term having netted me a great deal of profit so far. Last weekend saw them draw with Dortmund and give us a refund on our Draw No Bet wager. They were again very impressive against a side that are looking likely to retain their title having found improved form. Gladbach started the season relying on 1-0 wins built on a solid tactical structure and the odd bit of flair from Marco Reus. Recently though, they have discovered an attacking verve that saw them blow Koln away in the derby two weeks ago. Reus has had a rest now and returns alongside the impressive Hause in midfield.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.0 with Victor Chandler.
Stuttgart v Bayern Munich, Sunday 1630
Sunday sees league leaders Munich travelling to Stuttgart for what should be a tough test. Stuttgart currently sit just behind the very top of the Bundesliga in seventh spot. They have a team built from the back and have only conceded more goals so far than the run-away top three. They have a decent home record too with four wins, two draws and two losses, both of which came early on. They are no slouches in front of goal either with fourteen in eight at home very good when combined with a measly seven conceded in the same matches.
Bayern started the season off like a train steam-rolling all in front of them with apparent ease. After the removal of Van Gaal and the appointment of Jupp Heynckes the team have again looked a lot happier and the football has followed. The transformation of Mario Gomez from something of a joke figure to one of Europe's most feared attackers has been a particular highlight so far. They have some great attackers with Gomez, Ribery and the returning Robben all playing well, but they rely heavily on Bastian Schweinsteiger holding it all together in midfield. His absence through injury has been noticed in recent games, particularly against the well drilled Mainz side that beat them recently. If Stuttgart can imitate their discipline and effort they have more than a chance of an upset.
Back Stuttgart and the Draw Double Chance at 2.5 with Coral.
Genclerbirligi v Orduspor, Sunday 1100
Sunday morning action from Turkey's Super Lig sees promoted Orduspor travelling to Gencler. I have previously mentioned that perhaps more so than in a lot of European leagues, home form seems a particular trait in Turkey. Gencler are by no means a brilliant side, and their position in twelfth highlights that, but they have only lost once at home all season. Even that was to a very good Galatasaray side who have gone top of the Super Lig by beating rivals Fenerbahce in mideek 3-1. Take that result away and they look very backable against most teams when at home.
Orduspor started the season very well and rose as high as fourth in the table. This could never be maintained though with a strikeforce that has only scored eleven goals so far, the second worst behind second bottom Samsunspor. They have not won in seven matches and look vulnerable when they can't score to being caught out by only one goal. They need some sort of boost to move back up the table, but sadly I see them descending towards a relegation scrap unless a striker is pulled out of a hat soon.
Back Genclerbirligi at 2.2 with Stan James.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
A real top of the table clash between two of Turkish football's big guns on Sunday afternoon. Trabzonspor ran Fenerbahce close last season and with match rigging allegations against Fener they have every reason to believe they were robbed of Super Lig glory. They drew with Lille this week to end their campaign in the Champions League dropping into the Europa League. They should not be ashamed though to do this as they were rank outsiders in a group containing Inter Milan, Lille and CSKA Moscow. They are a solid side who also contain players like Yilmaz capable of scoring the goals to beat most sides in Turkey.
Galatasaray went top of the table on Wednesday night after a 3-1 victory in the Istanbul derby over arch rivals Fenerbahce. They have been quietly stringing together a lengthy list of tight margin victories to put themselves in position to overtake Fener and they performed brilliantly in achieving it. This marin of victory owed a lot to the passion of the derby though. It is no normal match for either side and Fenerbahce chased victory as they may not have done in any other fixture. Let nothing take away from a very good win for Gala, they deserved it and should now push on and cement their league position.
Back Galatasaray at 3.0 with Stan James.
Friday, 2 December 2011
And Behind Door Number Two...
Well, that was a tidy little weekend wasn't it? With five out of seven tips rolling in and all at over even money, we should all have been celebrating. Sadly I went back in with a little of my earnings to back Bilbao at home to Granada at what I thought was a still reasonable 1.5. The sods lost and therefore so did I. I say this as hopefully you can all learn from my error, if you've made your picks and made your money, then that should be enough. Wait for the next time you've had a proper look as I do before this column and don't start madly punting.
It has been something of a quiet midweek really. I rarely, if ever, get involved in the Europa League as it is very hard to gauge how seriously teams are taking it as well as weighing up the merits of third in Israel against second in Hungary. The interest for most should have been in the Carling Cup quarter finals. We got a couple of upsets too. Tuesday saw Arsenal's pretty young side hold their own before Sergio Aguero's class stood out to win it late for Man City. The key from this match was again seeing how the absence of Van Persie makes Arsenal a much harder team to back as his replacements are not exactly prolific. We saw Liverpool heap more misery on Villas Boas sorry Chelsea side by beating them 0-2 and also missing a penalty. Chelsea were again pretty dreadful and in particular Torres was very lacklustre. Blackburn were beaten away at Cardiff and again looked very poor. On Wednesday we saw the big upset as Crystal Palace beat Man Utd at Old Trafford. Darren Ambrose opened the scoring from around 30 yards with a rocket before Utd equalised and Palace snatched a win in extra time. Another thing to learn from this match is that United have very little coming through and the more injuries they get the more they will be likely to fall away from the top of the table.
Music this week comes from Daggermouth with Too Late, No Friends.
Newcastle v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
First match of the weekend sees a struggling Chelsea side travelling to this season's surprise package Newcastle. Newcastle's unbeaten record fell to Manchester City recently, but they should still not be underestimated. Whilst Alan Pardew was roundly mocked upon his appointment, it can not be denied that he has turned the side's fortunes round and made them much harder to beat. This is the key for me. They are set up from defence and have a solid centre of midfield before some pace on the flanks and in Demba Ba a striker in great form. When watching him I can't exactly pick what it is about him that makes him a success, but he is quick and gets in great positions. Chelsea are rocking right now and could probably do without visiting a Newcastle team who will still be full of confidence at the moment. It has been said in various places that Chelsea are getting very old in key areas now, as well as the fact certain key players seem to have far too much influence. All in all it looks to be heading to a showdown to me with Roman either backing the manager and making more investment in younger players or bringing Hiddink back to try and get a little bit more out of the older heads. Anyway I can't back them in present form. Back Newcastle Draw No Bet at 2.75 with Stan James.
Tottenham v Bolton, Saturday 1500
My current favourite Premier League team is worryingly Spurs. As I mentioned last week it has long been an unwritten rule in gambling to never trust Spurs, but I think that time is over for now. Looking at the Premier League apart from Man City the most reliable side are Spurs. With nine wins and a draw from their last ten matches they are in great form and are looking good whilst doing it. They did as good as bow out of the Europa League this week, but it should have little consequence as Redknapp has made it plain his lack of care for the competition. Plenty of the side that have been on this great run were rested and will be looking forward to playing a struggling Bolton side. On to Bolton and their manager Owen Coyle. Like many others I thought Coyle started very well at Bolton and looked a genuine prospect to get them playing good football and points. Since around three quarters of the way through last season though they have not been up to scratch. The fact that Steve Kean is around as well as Wigan's continued travails means that their poor form has mostly gone unnoticed. However comma they are a million miles away from being good enough to beat this Tottenham side for me. Back Spurs/Spurs in the HT/FT at 1.95 again at Stan James.
Valencia v Espanyol, Saturday 2100
Another team that seems to be being slightly underestimated by punters is Valencia. At present they look a much more reliable bet than Barcelona in La Liga and yet are often a lot longer odds. I'm not suggesting they're a better side, but they are doing it more consistently at present. They may have sold a lot of their better players over the last few years, but there is still some fine players left. My personal favourite is the striker Roberto Soldado. He has been the most reliable Spanish goalscorer around for almost a calendar year now, but seems to still be well down the national pecking order behind, amongst others, Villa and Torres. He seems content to carry on banging them in for the Galician's though, and all the better for backers. Espanyol were a tip by many to struggle for their La Liga status this year after a poor season last time and little investment in the playing staff over the summer. They presently sit in ninth after a good start, although they are now four matches without a win and have only scored two goals in those four matches too. All in all, it is not a good time to play a fully rested Valencia side in the intimidating Mestalla. Back Valencia -1.0 at 1.85 with Victor Chandler.
Osasuna v Betis, Sunday 1700
Second tip from La Liga is Osasuna hosting promoted Betis. One constant rule in La Liga is that it will not be an easy game for anyone travelling to Osasuna. They have always been a physical side and that has not changed this season. The effort they put in is fantastic, and they're not averse to getting a bit dirty when there is a call for it. They are so far unbeaten at home from six matches with three wins and three draws and they also notched up a first away win of the season last weekend at Espanyol to rise to seventh in the table. Their problem has always been goals, but their tightness at the back, only conceding three in six at home, allows them to get wins. Betis did well initially before embarking in a nine game winless streak that is still going. I don't watch enough of them to fully identify what the major problems are, but needless to say that's a dreadful run that will soon have them in danger if not arrested. They hadn't even scored in five matches before surrendering 2-3 in their last match. In a run like this I can only see one result. Back Osasuna at 21.5 with Victor Chandler.
Parma v Palermo, Sunday 1430
The only tip from Italy this week sees Palermo travelling to Parma. Parma have been the major success story in Serie A in the last fifteen years really. They are a small club in comparison to most, but thanks to a brilliant scouting network and youth system have included players like Crespo, Cannavaro and Buffon amongst many others. Unfortunately those golden days now seem over and they will be happy with a season avoiding a relegation scrap. Their current best player is the diminutive playmaker Sebastian Giavinco formerly of Juventus. He has drifted around many sides including the national team with coaches seemingly worried about his lack of height and strength, but he is thriving given responsibility at Parma. They have won their last two home matches and he has been key in both. Palermo are another slightly more recent success story. They were promoted not too many years ago and have thrived ever since. They also have a good scouting network in South America and Eastern Europe and have unearthed players like the recently departed Javier Pastore. They have built their success on good home form in Sicily and this season has been no different. They have six wins from six at home. Their away record is vastly different. They have drawn one and lost five from six without scoring in the whole time. Back Parma at 2.15 with Ladbrokes.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
The derby of the Borussia's! Both are sides I very much like with my tip of backing Dortmund outright again looking shrewd with them recovering their spot at the top of the Bundesliga last weekend. Gladbach have also been very good to me betting wise this season with their march up the table. Just recently Gladbach have looked phenomenal with Marco Reus looking spectacular at times and adding goals to their game. A 5-0 win against Werder Bremen followed by a 0-3 win in their derby away to Koln last week is fantastic. They are currently the form team in the Bundesliga and are well worth their second position. Dortmund, as mentioned, have recovered from a slow start to head the table thanks to a run of eight games without defeat including an important away win against Bayern Munich. They are coming into form just as Bayern are struggling in the absence of injured Bastian Shweinsteiger and will look to stretch their advantage. They would not have wanted this trip now though. They have a record of won three, drawn two and lost two away from home and Gladbach are still unbeaten at home whilst scoring sixteen and only conceding five. Back Gladbach Draw No Bet at 2.75 with Stan James.
Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray, Saturday 1400
First tip from the Super Lig sees giants Gala travelling to Gencler. Gala would have fancied their chances of making a push for the title this season after the match fixing scandal that engulfed Fenerbahce over the summer months. They currently sit second behind Fener and are three points behind. They have won four, drawn one and lost one at home as well as winning two, drawing three and only losing one away from home. They have been a bit leaky at the back though, and this has cost them points. Strangely though, they have been more solidly set up away from home, which has contributed to the three draws as they have sacrificed attacking intent for defensive solidity. Gencler have so far been unbeaten at home and will enter this match confident of taking something. They have played six at home winning four and drawing two whilst scoring a brilliant eleven and only conceding four. I would imagine this will only encourage Gala to set up defensively again, but barring Fenerbahce noone looks better placed to breach their rearguard. Back Genclerbirligi Draw No Bet at a massive 2.5 with Stan James.
Antalyaspor v Karabukspor, Sunday 1100
This is more of a gut feeling than anything on this bet so be aware! Recent Sunday morning matches seem to be throwing up some classics in the Super Lig and I'm going to take a punt on this being another. The league is not renowned for loads of goals flying in, although defences sometimes look like the definition of 'schoolboy', and the odds often reflect this. Both these sides are in the relegation fight and will probably stay there for the majority of the season so I am banking on both viewing this as winnable and going for it. Antalyaspor have played six at home and have won two, drawn three and only lost the one whilst scoring seven and conceding six. Karabukspor have played six away without winning, only drawing once and losing five. They have also scored four in that time and conceded ten. It makes the home team look like they should do it, but I think they'll concede at least one and hopefully that will encourage Karabuk. Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.75 with William Hill.
It has been something of a quiet midweek really. I rarely, if ever, get involved in the Europa League as it is very hard to gauge how seriously teams are taking it as well as weighing up the merits of third in Israel against second in Hungary. The interest for most should have been in the Carling Cup quarter finals. We got a couple of upsets too. Tuesday saw Arsenal's pretty young side hold their own before Sergio Aguero's class stood out to win it late for Man City. The key from this match was again seeing how the absence of Van Persie makes Arsenal a much harder team to back as his replacements are not exactly prolific. We saw Liverpool heap more misery on Villas Boas sorry Chelsea side by beating them 0-2 and also missing a penalty. Chelsea were again pretty dreadful and in particular Torres was very lacklustre. Blackburn were beaten away at Cardiff and again looked very poor. On Wednesday we saw the big upset as Crystal Palace beat Man Utd at Old Trafford. Darren Ambrose opened the scoring from around 30 yards with a rocket before Utd equalised and Palace snatched a win in extra time. Another thing to learn from this match is that United have very little coming through and the more injuries they get the more they will be likely to fall away from the top of the table.
Music this week comes from Daggermouth with Too Late, No Friends.
Newcastle v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
First match of the weekend sees a struggling Chelsea side travelling to this season's surprise package Newcastle. Newcastle's unbeaten record fell to Manchester City recently, but they should still not be underestimated. Whilst Alan Pardew was roundly mocked upon his appointment, it can not be denied that he has turned the side's fortunes round and made them much harder to beat. This is the key for me. They are set up from defence and have a solid centre of midfield before some pace on the flanks and in Demba Ba a striker in great form. When watching him I can't exactly pick what it is about him that makes him a success, but he is quick and gets in great positions. Chelsea are rocking right now and could probably do without visiting a Newcastle team who will still be full of confidence at the moment. It has been said in various places that Chelsea are getting very old in key areas now, as well as the fact certain key players seem to have far too much influence. All in all it looks to be heading to a showdown to me with Roman either backing the manager and making more investment in younger players or bringing Hiddink back to try and get a little bit more out of the older heads. Anyway I can't back them in present form. Back Newcastle Draw No Bet at 2.75 with Stan James.
Tottenham v Bolton, Saturday 1500
My current favourite Premier League team is worryingly Spurs. As I mentioned last week it has long been an unwritten rule in gambling to never trust Spurs, but I think that time is over for now. Looking at the Premier League apart from Man City the most reliable side are Spurs. With nine wins and a draw from their last ten matches they are in great form and are looking good whilst doing it. They did as good as bow out of the Europa League this week, but it should have little consequence as Redknapp has made it plain his lack of care for the competition. Plenty of the side that have been on this great run were rested and will be looking forward to playing a struggling Bolton side. On to Bolton and their manager Owen Coyle. Like many others I thought Coyle started very well at Bolton and looked a genuine prospect to get them playing good football and points. Since around three quarters of the way through last season though they have not been up to scratch. The fact that Steve Kean is around as well as Wigan's continued travails means that their poor form has mostly gone unnoticed. However comma they are a million miles away from being good enough to beat this Tottenham side for me. Back Spurs/Spurs in the HT/FT at 1.95 again at Stan James.
Valencia v Espanyol, Saturday 2100
Another team that seems to be being slightly underestimated by punters is Valencia. At present they look a much more reliable bet than Barcelona in La Liga and yet are often a lot longer odds. I'm not suggesting they're a better side, but they are doing it more consistently at present. They may have sold a lot of their better players over the last few years, but there is still some fine players left. My personal favourite is the striker Roberto Soldado. He has been the most reliable Spanish goalscorer around for almost a calendar year now, but seems to still be well down the national pecking order behind, amongst others, Villa and Torres. He seems content to carry on banging them in for the Galician's though, and all the better for backers. Espanyol were a tip by many to struggle for their La Liga status this year after a poor season last time and little investment in the playing staff over the summer. They presently sit in ninth after a good start, although they are now four matches without a win and have only scored two goals in those four matches too. All in all, it is not a good time to play a fully rested Valencia side in the intimidating Mestalla. Back Valencia -1.0 at 1.85 with Victor Chandler.
Osasuna v Betis, Sunday 1700
Second tip from La Liga is Osasuna hosting promoted Betis. One constant rule in La Liga is that it will not be an easy game for anyone travelling to Osasuna. They have always been a physical side and that has not changed this season. The effort they put in is fantastic, and they're not averse to getting a bit dirty when there is a call for it. They are so far unbeaten at home from six matches with three wins and three draws and they also notched up a first away win of the season last weekend at Espanyol to rise to seventh in the table. Their problem has always been goals, but their tightness at the back, only conceding three in six at home, allows them to get wins. Betis did well initially before embarking in a nine game winless streak that is still going. I don't watch enough of them to fully identify what the major problems are, but needless to say that's a dreadful run that will soon have them in danger if not arrested. They hadn't even scored in five matches before surrendering 2-3 in their last match. In a run like this I can only see one result. Back Osasuna at 21.5 with Victor Chandler.
Parma v Palermo, Sunday 1430
The only tip from Italy this week sees Palermo travelling to Parma. Parma have been the major success story in Serie A in the last fifteen years really. They are a small club in comparison to most, but thanks to a brilliant scouting network and youth system have included players like Crespo, Cannavaro and Buffon amongst many others. Unfortunately those golden days now seem over and they will be happy with a season avoiding a relegation scrap. Their current best player is the diminutive playmaker Sebastian Giavinco formerly of Juventus. He has drifted around many sides including the national team with coaches seemingly worried about his lack of height and strength, but he is thriving given responsibility at Parma. They have won their last two home matches and he has been key in both. Palermo are another slightly more recent success story. They were promoted not too many years ago and have thrived ever since. They also have a good scouting network in South America and Eastern Europe and have unearthed players like the recently departed Javier Pastore. They have built their success on good home form in Sicily and this season has been no different. They have six wins from six at home. Their away record is vastly different. They have drawn one and lost five from six without scoring in the whole time. Back Parma at 2.15 with Ladbrokes.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
The derby of the Borussia's! Both are sides I very much like with my tip of backing Dortmund outright again looking shrewd with them recovering their spot at the top of the Bundesliga last weekend. Gladbach have also been very good to me betting wise this season with their march up the table. Just recently Gladbach have looked phenomenal with Marco Reus looking spectacular at times and adding goals to their game. A 5-0 win against Werder Bremen followed by a 0-3 win in their derby away to Koln last week is fantastic. They are currently the form team in the Bundesliga and are well worth their second position. Dortmund, as mentioned, have recovered from a slow start to head the table thanks to a run of eight games without defeat including an important away win against Bayern Munich. They are coming into form just as Bayern are struggling in the absence of injured Bastian Shweinsteiger and will look to stretch their advantage. They would not have wanted this trip now though. They have a record of won three, drawn two and lost two away from home and Gladbach are still unbeaten at home whilst scoring sixteen and only conceding five. Back Gladbach Draw No Bet at 2.75 with Stan James.
Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray, Saturday 1400
First tip from the Super Lig sees giants Gala travelling to Gencler. Gala would have fancied their chances of making a push for the title this season after the match fixing scandal that engulfed Fenerbahce over the summer months. They currently sit second behind Fener and are three points behind. They have won four, drawn one and lost one at home as well as winning two, drawing three and only losing one away from home. They have been a bit leaky at the back though, and this has cost them points. Strangely though, they have been more solidly set up away from home, which has contributed to the three draws as they have sacrificed attacking intent for defensive solidity. Gencler have so far been unbeaten at home and will enter this match confident of taking something. They have played six at home winning four and drawing two whilst scoring a brilliant eleven and only conceding four. I would imagine this will only encourage Gala to set up defensively again, but barring Fenerbahce noone looks better placed to breach their rearguard. Back Genclerbirligi Draw No Bet at a massive 2.5 with Stan James.
Antalyaspor v Karabukspor, Sunday 1100
This is more of a gut feeling than anything on this bet so be aware! Recent Sunday morning matches seem to be throwing up some classics in the Super Lig and I'm going to take a punt on this being another. The league is not renowned for loads of goals flying in, although defences sometimes look like the definition of 'schoolboy', and the odds often reflect this. Both these sides are in the relegation fight and will probably stay there for the majority of the season so I am banking on both viewing this as winnable and going for it. Antalyaspor have played six at home and have won two, drawn three and only lost the one whilst scoring seven and conceding six. Karabukspor have played six away without winning, only drawing once and losing five. They have also scored four in that time and conceded ten. It makes the home team look like they should do it, but I think they'll concede at least one and hopefully that will encourage Karabuk. Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.75 with William Hill.
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