I would like to start by saying we all have bad weeks. And I had a truly horrendous one last weekend, even though I was actually very happy with all my picks. Unfortunately such is the nature of gambling, you always run the risk of losing. Fortunately we have been well up a number of weeks this season so overall we are still in healthy profit, and that's the main thing at the end of the day.
It has again been a pretty quiet midweek, with just the odd Domestic Cup match around Europe to keep us occupied. Obviously the biggest of those was the Real Madrid v Barcelona Copa Del Rey Quarter Final in Spain on Wednesday night. As seems to be the norm in these match-ups now, the game was marred by all manner of cheating, theatrics and downright idiocy. Pepe in particular again showed his slightly unhinged side in stamping on Lionel Messi's hand in some sort of attempt to curb his skills. All told it failed as a tactic as Barcelona ran out 2-1 winners and will now be heavy favourites to progress with the Second Leg at Camp Nou this week.
I would very much like to recommend Mike Hale and Wicked People this week, a chilled out slice of folk.
Stoke City v West Brom, Saturday 1500
First up this week is Tony Pulis's Stoke side hosting Woy Hodgson's WBA. Both sides have been in decent form of late, but Stoke are coming off the back of an excellent point at Anfield. It could be suggested that Liverpool were poor and have been most of the season at home, and they may ring true, but Stoke should still be given credit for making them look very ordinary. If you take away the results after their Europa League exploits this season Stoke would again be on for a challenge for an automatic place back in Europa next year. They may not quite yet have the squad to cope with campaigning on two fronts, but with European action yet to resume they should be plenty refreshed for this match.
Since joining WBA after his awful spell at Liverpool, Woy has made Stoke similar to his old Fulham side in that they are organised, tough to beat and pose a considerable threat in attack. This alone should guarantee safety in the Premier League these days with the almost certain chance that at least two sides every year will be truly hopeless, and that Wigan will nearly always be one of them. The partnership up front of Peter Odemwingie and Shane Long has looked very good at times with Long providing the hard yards and Odemwingie the pace and flair. Whether Odemwingie will enjoy the attentions of Stoke's incredibly physical backline is something I rather doubt though and I see WBA struggling this weekend.
Back Stoke City at 1.95 with BetVictor.
Manchester City v Tottenham, Sunday 1330
In the first of two huge clashes on Sunday Tottenham travel to Man City looking to creep back into title contention. The only problem is that so far City have won every single match at Eastland's this season and have not lost there in over a calendar year. For all the criticism levelled at Mancini, and I would agree he may not be the man to bring the Champions League to Eastland's eventually, he is definitely good enough to win them the league title. This match will be another stern test for him, particularly in light of his absentees. There is a spine in this City side that when fit and performing makes them miles better than the rest of the league, unfortunately for City they will be missing two vital parts of it this weekend in Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure. This will be keenest felt at centre back where Kompany's assured play and presence are a huge miss. The return of David Silva in midweek though again provides them with the flair and cutting edge they sorely missed when he was briefly injured.
Spurs had the chance last weekend to really apply some pressure to the two Manchester sides and failed to do so in what, on paper, was an easy three points. They somehow conspired to draw 1-1 at home to a poor Wolves side and I have seen the odd criticism of Redknapp's refusal to rotate being part of this. I can understand this to an extent as there are players he has brought in like Pienaar and Kranjcar who he refuses to sell, yet when he could have given them a run and expected to still beat Wolves, he did not take the opportunity. I am not suggesting they are better than the likes of Lennon and Bale, but if those two looked leggy then it may have proved more beneficial to give the reserves a run. Anyway, I would expect Spurs to get back on track soon, but not here.
Back Manchester City at 1.91 with Ladbrokes.
Arsenal v Manchester United, Sunday 1600
The second part of the Super Huge Sunday is Man Utd travelling to the Emirates hoping to keep pace with their neighbours. I think we all remember the reverse of this fixture a few months back where somewhat amazingly United ran out 8-2 winners. I certainly don't see a repeat quite at that level, but we may well see another entertaining fixture. Arsenal's myriad of flaws were again exposed last weekend in a 3-2 loss to Swansea in Wales. The most shocking aspect to may was the dominance of possession that Swansea enjoyed. However comma those that regularly watch Wenger's side surely can't have been completely taken aback. The days of tippy tappy stuff seem to be over in favour of a more industrial style at times and it looks like it has confused may of the players. There seems a complete lack of cohesion of purpose about them at times that has rarely been seen during Wenger's reign. The current lack of full-backs will surely also be targeted by Ferguson.
United enjoyed one of their traditional walkovers last week when hosting Bolton. They barely had to break sweat and should be full of beans for this clash. Whilst I have extolled many times this season on how over-rated I thought they were at the beginning of the season they have, to their credit, stayed in touch with City so far. I still think the Goalkeeper, Defence and Central Midfield all need new personnel, it says a lot about the current quality of English football that they are still comfortably second best in the Premier League. This is an ideal match to gain a win and a boost to the confidence of the likes of Nani and Rooney who have looked out of sorts of late.
Back Manchester United at 2.62 with Paddy Power.
Udinese v Catania, Sunday 1400
One of the matches I was very confident with last weekend but got stung on was Udinese throwing away an early lead away at Genoa. Whilst this was a shock of sorts, it was not completely out of the blue and certainly would not have happened had Udinese been the hosts. They still have not lost at home this season, with the only blemish on their record a 0-0 draw with Juventus before Xmas. They have scored eighteen and only conceded three in their nine home games so far and will be confident of continuing that run against Catania. Antonio Di Natale has again had a full weeks rest, very important with his knees giving him constant abuse now, and will be ready to again fire his club ahead.
Catania are currently mid-table and will be relatively pleased with that. Their main aim would have been to avoid a relegation scrap and with them sitting seven points clear of the relegation places they should comfortably achieve that. They have struggled for goals all season and also sadly conceded by the bucketload away from home costing them any hopes of moving much higher up Serie A. In nine away matches they have only won one, whilst drawing five and losing three. They have scored eleven, but sadly been undone by conceding a huge nineteen. This match only looks likely to go one way.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.2 with Bet365.
Inter Milan v Lazio, Sunday 1945
Another match from Italy as I am currently avoiding Spain. The Liga Primera has got very unpredictable since Xmas so I'll leave alone until some semblance of order returns. In terms of reliability, Inter are the team to be behind in Europe. They have made a brilliant turnaround since Ranieri stepped in as manager and brought in a system the players could fit into and understand. He could even afford to leave Wesley Sneijder on the bench in the Milan derby last weekend and gain a 1-0 win. They now only lie six points of top spot in Serie A and talk of a late title push is probably not beyond the realms of possibility. They have now won their last ten matches in the league and all bar one of those at home was won by more than one goal.
Lazio are in something of a funk at present. Pre-season there was talk of the possibility of getting around the title picture and to be fair to them they've stayed around that aim. However comma one win in the last five tells the story of a side that are struggling to kill teams off. Last weekend did see a home victory over ten man Atalanta, but they again looked a tad disjointed. Basically, I think they are meeting the divisions form team at the wrong time for them and Inter will see it as a chance to overtake another side near the peak of the table.
Back Inter -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.23 with BetVictor.
Istanbul BB v Manisaspor, Saturday 1100
Two sides that started well, but have faded somewhat meet in Istanbul on Saturday morning. Istanbul BB relied on a fantastic early home record to reach as high as fourth in the table in October before falling as far as thirteenth now mainly due to a lack of goals producing too many draws at home. Their away form has always been a problem and this does not seem to have changed this year, which makes their issues at home stand out all the more. They have only lost one match at home, but with five draws from nine matches it is easy to see that is the problem.
Manisaspor have fallen down from third to twelfth in almost the same timeframe. This has been almost entirely down to a strikeforce that has only mustered eighteen goals in twenty Super Lig matches, split evenly between home and away games. In nine away matches they have drawn five of them and this has been due to often scoring, but being unable to stop the other side also netting. I think they will again struggle for a win here.
Back the Draw at 3.25 with Coral.
Bursaspor v Sivasspor, Saturday 1400
This match sees one of the seasons surprise packages in Sivasspor away at an increasingly despondent looking Bursa side. Only three seasons ago Bursa had spent a good amount of money in trying to establish themselves as a new power in the Super Lig and back to back titles proved they had achieved that aim. However comma last season they fell short of a proper challenge with Trabzon and Fener battling it out and Fener triumphing in the end. This seems to have caused a malaise to set in with the Crocodile's and they have looked anything but champions material so far. They look short of creativity, goals and just general motivation. They sit in eleventh position and twenty two goals in twenty matches is probably the main reason for this.
Sivass have been an entertaining choice for the neutral for a couple of years now. Their money worries are still present and last season they were that bad that they often lost players midweek in dispute of payments leaving them open to the odd thrashing. Their gung-ho approach to playing also londs itself to goals in what is generally a low scoring division. They are currently on an unbeaten run that stretches back to a narrow defeat to Galatasaray in November and are full of the confidence teams often need to successfully employ such an attacking tactic.
Back Sivasspor Draw No Bet at 3.4 with Coral.
Friday, 20 January 2012
Friday, 13 January 2012
The 'Magic' of the FA Cup...
It's that time of the week again and I'm here to bring you some more selections. Last weekend was a strange one for me as those following all my tips will have come out around even, but strangely my FA Cup tips were the best performers. I say strangely as I would never advise backing large stakes in cups, especially the early rounds, due to the often unpredictable nature of such matches. This is nothing to do with the load of rubbish that is 'the magic of the cup', rather the fact that some teams will name weakened line-ups or just plain not put in the effort. Anyway, I'll chalk them up as good picks, even if I wouldn't have been in a mad rush to get the weeks wages on them myself!
It's been another relatively quiet midweek with most European countries getting on with cup football in the absence of Champions League and Europa League matches.
In the only Premier League match we saw Spurs take on Everton and White Hart Lane, and by all accounts they were again hugely impressive. Most reports I saw suggested Spurs could really have had as many as they wanted and settled for two and conservation of energy in lieu of more challenging games. One player who caught the eye with a blinding driven goal was Benoit Essou-Ekotto. The left back could now probably be argued as the best in the whole league (Enrique at Liverpool would also have more than a shout) as he is good defensively and offers a lot of use attacking too.
Music this week is from Andrew Jackson Jihad with the charmingly titled Let Us Get Murdered.
Tottenham v Wolves, Saturday 1500
The aforementioned Spurs host Wolves this weekend after Jez Moxey was again moved to give Mick McCarthy his public support because of their regular insipid performances. Spurs are currently the team in form and possibly the most 'sure thing' there is in the Premier League. This new development into a side capable of stringing together one impressive win after another has put them within touching distance of actually being top of the table. From a betting perspective they surely have to represent the best value bet for actually winning the thing. The best compliment I can pay 'Arry Redknapp is that they can generally cope when any one of their players is out. Obviously they're better when the likes of Bale, Van Der Vaart and Adebayor play, but they're deputies are all capable of stepping in and performing too. In short, I now like Spurs (but never Redknapp).
Wolves are looking increasingly likely to find themselves in a relegation scrap come May. The players in general are Championship material with the odd exception like Steven Fletcher. This is beginning to show more and more and even players like Roger Johnson who previously impressed at Brum are looking dreadful. I can imagine the players are all behind big Mick, but sadly a change may be needed to bring about a kick up the arse for more than a few of them. They certainly will not want to be meeting Spurs anyway.
Back Tottenham -1 Handicap at 1.8 with Corbett Sports.
Swansea v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Another side who have impressed many this season is Brendan Rodgers Swansea side. They pass the ball around brilliantly and in Michael Vorm possess a goalkeeper who could well be the find of the season. Unfortunately they do lack a predator in front of goal with Danny Graham showing again how hard many find the step up from Championship to Premier League. The Swans have scored only twenty in twenty so far and have relied upon a fantastic defence at home which has seen them only ship four goals in ten matches so far. They have also only lost one match at home having played the likes of Spurs and Stoke, both sides who have been mighty impressive at points.
Arsenal played Leeds on Monday night in the FA Cup and we saw the triumphant return of Thierry Henry scoring a typical winner. Whilst clearly a fantastic moment for player and fans alike, as many have pointed out in the euphoria, it was only in a largely disappointing 1-0 win over Leeds at home. What is clear though is that Henry, even at this stage of his career, is probably a better option than Chamakh or Park. The Gunners are now up to fifth in the table and lie only a point behind Chelsea and will be desperate to get back in the Champions League places as soon as possible. I would imagine we will see a fairly possession filled match with few shots. Robin Van Persie will probably again prove the difference.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.93 with Ladbrokes.
Granada v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 1700
Two of the promoted sides meet on Saturday afternoon in the Primera Liga and so far both have looked decent bets to stay up. Granada have recovered from a poor start to grab a few good results and are now three points clear of the relegation places. Their home form has a lot to do with this, as does their organised defence. In seven home matches they have only been beaten on the opening day and then by Barcelona whilst also only conceding six goals. In fact, in all their league matches they have only once conceded more than two in a game, and that was away at Real Madrid. If anything is going to keep them up it will be that defence.
Rayo have also looked very good in some matches. Their home ground is renowned for it's intimidating atmosphere and raucous supporters, which is a much more rare occurrence in Spain than England. They too sit three points above the relegation places and have also been better at home than away. Of nine away games they have lost four, drawn three and only won two, and they were both before October. They have also conceded a worrying seventeen goals in those nine matches. Granada have an excellent chance of pulling further clear in this.
Back Granada at 2.4 with Coral.
Osasuna v Racing Santander, Sunday 1500
The surprise package in the Primera Liga this year for many would definitely be Osasuna. They sit in fifth in the league and still stand unbeaten at home. Admittedly they are yet to host Real or Barca, but that is a mighty impressive record nonetheless. They are not big goalscorers, but make up for that fact by having a physical approach and not conceding many at all. In eight home games they have only conceded five goals so far whilst scoring thirteen. There is no reason to think this is some sort of blip as they have always been good at home and have merely strengthened in the past few seasons to make themselves a much more regular performing team.
Santander have struggled for a few years now and look like this season may be the one where they actually drop out into the Segunda division. This might even be good for them in many ways as they can try and regroup a bit having not really done anything positive for a few years. There main problem has been scoring goals, they haven't conceded many at all but failing to score has denied them wins. They have only scored nine in total, four away from home, and are also yet to win away. The signs only point one way here.
Back Osasuna To Win To Nil at a huge 2.7 with Paddy Power.
Genoa v Udinese, Sunday 1400
My only pick from Italy this week sees blog favourites Udinese travelling to Genoa. So far this season Genoa have been fairly underwhelming. They sit in mid-table and have their pretty good home form and tight defence to home to thank for this. They have won four, drawn two and lost two from ten at home so far, scoring ten and conceding seven in the process. They are a side built from the back and do not commit many players forward when attacking, and I would imagine this will be particularly evident against a side like Udine.
Udinese came back from the xmas break with a bang in a 4-1 win over Cesena last weekend. Whilst they did go into the break at 1-1, they were all over Cesena from the first whistle and were truly deserving of the final scoreline. Antonio Di Natale again showed his class and will have benefitted from a full weeks rest now his knees are giving him trouble. They still have a chance of winning Serie A and should see this as a very winnable match en route. I think they're worth backing to hopefully sneak a victory.
Back Udinese at 2.6 with BetVictor (new Victor Chandler name).
Mersin Idman Yurdu v Antalyaspor, Sunday 1400
First of two tips from the Super Lig in Turkey this week sees promoted Mersin taking on Antalyaspor. Mersin have picked up some good results already on their return to the top table in Turkey and sit in mid-table security for the moment with few worries of relegation, but also very unlikely to trouble the European places. They have got a fair mixture of results and this is true of at home where they are three wins, three draws and four defeats from ten matches so far. However comma three of these defeats at home were to Fenerbahce, Besiktas and Bursaspor leaving the stats looking slightly different. They are generally more than capable of beating all except the very best.
Antalyaspor have relied greatly on home form so far, mainly due to an appalling away record. Of nine away matches they have only won one, drawn two and lost six. In doing so they have only scored three goals as well as conceding ten. They are all too easy to beat when away from home and with such a pathetic goals for record that looks unlikely to change any time soon.
Back Mersin Idman Yurdu at 2.15 with William Hill.
Kayserispor v Gaziantepspor, Monday 1800
Last tip of the weekend comes in late as it's not played until Monday evening in Turkey. We see two Super Lig sides who have been around for a number of years without particularly doing anything meeting in Kayseri. This season Kayseri have made their best start for some time and that is in no small part due to the amount of goals they are scoring at home. They have fifteen in ten home matches, which in the low scoring Super Lig is no mean feat, and have conceded ten. They have only drawn one match all season and have been very entertaining in most matches. They have also won five of ten at home and lost four to emphasise the fact you either get a good result or bad with no in between here.
Gaziantepspor reached the Turkish Cup final last year and would have hoped to push on in the league this time out. This sadly has not been the case so far. Last season they were excellent at home and were pushing for Europe, but this season that home form has deserted them and they sit just above the relegation spots. They have only won one away match and the main reason behind this is the paltry six goals they have scored in nine away matches. They only have one win in the last six league matches and were also knocked out of the Cup by second division opposition in midweek which may well further dent their confidence.
Back Kayserispor at 2.1 with BlueSq.
It's been another relatively quiet midweek with most European countries getting on with cup football in the absence of Champions League and Europa League matches.
In the only Premier League match we saw Spurs take on Everton and White Hart Lane, and by all accounts they were again hugely impressive. Most reports I saw suggested Spurs could really have had as many as they wanted and settled for two and conservation of energy in lieu of more challenging games. One player who caught the eye with a blinding driven goal was Benoit Essou-Ekotto. The left back could now probably be argued as the best in the whole league (Enrique at Liverpool would also have more than a shout) as he is good defensively and offers a lot of use attacking too.
Music this week is from Andrew Jackson Jihad with the charmingly titled Let Us Get Murdered.
Tottenham v Wolves, Saturday 1500
The aforementioned Spurs host Wolves this weekend after Jez Moxey was again moved to give Mick McCarthy his public support because of their regular insipid performances. Spurs are currently the team in form and possibly the most 'sure thing' there is in the Premier League. This new development into a side capable of stringing together one impressive win after another has put them within touching distance of actually being top of the table. From a betting perspective they surely have to represent the best value bet for actually winning the thing. The best compliment I can pay 'Arry Redknapp is that they can generally cope when any one of their players is out. Obviously they're better when the likes of Bale, Van Der Vaart and Adebayor play, but they're deputies are all capable of stepping in and performing too. In short, I now like Spurs (but never Redknapp).
Wolves are looking increasingly likely to find themselves in a relegation scrap come May. The players in general are Championship material with the odd exception like Steven Fletcher. This is beginning to show more and more and even players like Roger Johnson who previously impressed at Brum are looking dreadful. I can imagine the players are all behind big Mick, but sadly a change may be needed to bring about a kick up the arse for more than a few of them. They certainly will not want to be meeting Spurs anyway.
Back Tottenham -1 Handicap at 1.8 with Corbett Sports.
Swansea v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
Another side who have impressed many this season is Brendan Rodgers Swansea side. They pass the ball around brilliantly and in Michael Vorm possess a goalkeeper who could well be the find of the season. Unfortunately they do lack a predator in front of goal with Danny Graham showing again how hard many find the step up from Championship to Premier League. The Swans have scored only twenty in twenty so far and have relied upon a fantastic defence at home which has seen them only ship four goals in ten matches so far. They have also only lost one match at home having played the likes of Spurs and Stoke, both sides who have been mighty impressive at points.
Arsenal played Leeds on Monday night in the FA Cup and we saw the triumphant return of Thierry Henry scoring a typical winner. Whilst clearly a fantastic moment for player and fans alike, as many have pointed out in the euphoria, it was only in a largely disappointing 1-0 win over Leeds at home. What is clear though is that Henry, even at this stage of his career, is probably a better option than Chamakh or Park. The Gunners are now up to fifth in the table and lie only a point behind Chelsea and will be desperate to get back in the Champions League places as soon as possible. I would imagine we will see a fairly possession filled match with few shots. Robin Van Persie will probably again prove the difference.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.93 with Ladbrokes.
Granada v Rayo Vallecano, Saturday 1700
Two of the promoted sides meet on Saturday afternoon in the Primera Liga and so far both have looked decent bets to stay up. Granada have recovered from a poor start to grab a few good results and are now three points clear of the relegation places. Their home form has a lot to do with this, as does their organised defence. In seven home matches they have only been beaten on the opening day and then by Barcelona whilst also only conceding six goals. In fact, in all their league matches they have only once conceded more than two in a game, and that was away at Real Madrid. If anything is going to keep them up it will be that defence.
Rayo have also looked very good in some matches. Their home ground is renowned for it's intimidating atmosphere and raucous supporters, which is a much more rare occurrence in Spain than England. They too sit three points above the relegation places and have also been better at home than away. Of nine away games they have lost four, drawn three and only won two, and they were both before October. They have also conceded a worrying seventeen goals in those nine matches. Granada have an excellent chance of pulling further clear in this.
Back Granada at 2.4 with Coral.
Osasuna v Racing Santander, Sunday 1500
The surprise package in the Primera Liga this year for many would definitely be Osasuna. They sit in fifth in the league and still stand unbeaten at home. Admittedly they are yet to host Real or Barca, but that is a mighty impressive record nonetheless. They are not big goalscorers, but make up for that fact by having a physical approach and not conceding many at all. In eight home games they have only conceded five goals so far whilst scoring thirteen. There is no reason to think this is some sort of blip as they have always been good at home and have merely strengthened in the past few seasons to make themselves a much more regular performing team.
Santander have struggled for a few years now and look like this season may be the one where they actually drop out into the Segunda division. This might even be good for them in many ways as they can try and regroup a bit having not really done anything positive for a few years. There main problem has been scoring goals, they haven't conceded many at all but failing to score has denied them wins. They have only scored nine in total, four away from home, and are also yet to win away. The signs only point one way here.
Back Osasuna To Win To Nil at a huge 2.7 with Paddy Power.
Genoa v Udinese, Sunday 1400
My only pick from Italy this week sees blog favourites Udinese travelling to Genoa. So far this season Genoa have been fairly underwhelming. They sit in mid-table and have their pretty good home form and tight defence to home to thank for this. They have won four, drawn two and lost two from ten at home so far, scoring ten and conceding seven in the process. They are a side built from the back and do not commit many players forward when attacking, and I would imagine this will be particularly evident against a side like Udine.
Udinese came back from the xmas break with a bang in a 4-1 win over Cesena last weekend. Whilst they did go into the break at 1-1, they were all over Cesena from the first whistle and were truly deserving of the final scoreline. Antonio Di Natale again showed his class and will have benefitted from a full weeks rest now his knees are giving him trouble. They still have a chance of winning Serie A and should see this as a very winnable match en route. I think they're worth backing to hopefully sneak a victory.
Back Udinese at 2.6 with BetVictor (new Victor Chandler name).
Mersin Idman Yurdu v Antalyaspor, Sunday 1400
First of two tips from the Super Lig in Turkey this week sees promoted Mersin taking on Antalyaspor. Mersin have picked up some good results already on their return to the top table in Turkey and sit in mid-table security for the moment with few worries of relegation, but also very unlikely to trouble the European places. They have got a fair mixture of results and this is true of at home where they are three wins, three draws and four defeats from ten matches so far. However comma three of these defeats at home were to Fenerbahce, Besiktas and Bursaspor leaving the stats looking slightly different. They are generally more than capable of beating all except the very best.
Antalyaspor have relied greatly on home form so far, mainly due to an appalling away record. Of nine away matches they have only won one, drawn two and lost six. In doing so they have only scored three goals as well as conceding ten. They are all too easy to beat when away from home and with such a pathetic goals for record that looks unlikely to change any time soon.
Back Mersin Idman Yurdu at 2.15 with William Hill.
Kayserispor v Gaziantepspor, Monday 1800
Last tip of the weekend comes in late as it's not played until Monday evening in Turkey. We see two Super Lig sides who have been around for a number of years without particularly doing anything meeting in Kayseri. This season Kayseri have made their best start for some time and that is in no small part due to the amount of goals they are scoring at home. They have fifteen in ten home matches, which in the low scoring Super Lig is no mean feat, and have conceded ten. They have only drawn one match all season and have been very entertaining in most matches. They have also won five of ten at home and lost four to emphasise the fact you either get a good result or bad with no in between here.
Gaziantepspor reached the Turkish Cup final last year and would have hoped to push on in the league this time out. This sadly has not been the case so far. Last season they were excellent at home and were pushing for Europe, but this season that home form has deserted them and they sit just above the relegation spots. They have only won one away match and the main reason behind this is the paltry six goals they have scored in nine away matches. They only have one win in the last six league matches and were also knocked out of the Cup by second division opposition in midweek which may well further dent their confidence.
Back Kayserispor at 2.1 with BlueSq.
Friday, 6 January 2012
A Glorious Return?
Good morning all and I hope you all enjoyed the Xmas/New Year break? Those of you that follow me on the Twitter @TopTopTips will know that it's not been a stellar punting period, there's been a couple of losses incurred. However, it is always a difficult period with the matches limited and the short gaps between producing more shocks in general.
The biggest of these was without a doubt title-chasing Man Utd losing at home to relegation favourites Blackburn Rovers. As I have carped on about all season I have had my doubts about the strength of this United side, and in particular the midfield. There are at least five sides with better midfield's than Utd this season and combine that with Rooney having another period where he looks like a pub player and it spells trouble. The loss to Blackburn didn't include Rooney, but Monday nights loss to Newcastle did. If anything this was even more embarrassing as it came with every fit first team player restored and Newcastle made it look easy at times. With no Vidic the defence can be added to the midfield and attack as currently massively underperforming. Similarly Chelsea have struggled, somehow contriving to lose from 1-0 up at home to a poor Villa side then having to snatch victory at Wolves. Man City looked in second gear beating Liverpool this week and will now fancy their chances of maintaining, and possibly, extending their lead at the top of the Premier League.
Music comes from In The Red with Dear Pride.
FA Cup 3rd Round.
I'm not generally a cup match backer as there is plenty of other football to bet on without having to worry about what team sides will put out in a cup match. However comma if it is your thing then I think Crawley, Barnsley, Swindon and MK Dons may well avoid defeats to higher opposition. In Crawley's case they will most likely be highly motivated to again show how far they have come in league football against a struggling Bristol City who have more pressing worries with staying in the Championship. For similar reason I would take on Swansea, QPR and Bolton away at Barnsley, Swindon and MK Dons respectively. All should really be more keen to cement Premier League places and rest players after a tiring Xmas period. My money will be invested elsewhere though this weekend.
Malaga v Atletico Madrid, Saturday 2100
Spain's sides have mostly played in the Copa Del Rey this week so they have had a bit of match action after a short Xmas break. Malaga hosted Real Madrid and managed to go into half time 2-0 ahead before succumbing to a second half onslaught and lose 3-2. As much as they might have hoped to hold on for a famous victory, there is no shame in losing to an exceptional Madrid side. I look at the first half performance as an indicator that the break has done them good and they have hit the ground running. They made some clever signings over the summer and at times have looked like they could move to the position of best of the rest given more time.
Atletico Madrid have as usual been a complete shambles most of the time, interspersed with the odd fantastic performance. The signing of Falcao from Porto initially looked like it would be a masterstroke, but his form has plummeted along with that of the rest of the side. After exiting the Copa Del Rey before Xmas the club finally parted ways with manager Manzano which they will hope will inject some fight back into what, on paper at least, looks a decent squad of players. The lack of cup football this week though means they will possibly be a bit leggier than Malaga and I would fancy them to take a few games before any improvements are obvious.
Back Malaga at 2.25 with William Hill.
Villarreal v Valencia, Sunday 1700
As I mentioned a numerous amount of times in the first half of the season, Villarreal look like their recent years of triumph and achievement are coming to an end. The scouting system that unearthed some brilliant players from South America seems to have slowed up somewhat in the last couple of years and most of the best players have either aged or left. Those like Guiseppe Rossi and Nilmar who provide much of the flair and goals have been injured for a lot of the season so far and Rossi is unlikely to appear at all. The back up is simply no better than the bottom half of the division, which is where they'll likely end up sadly.
Valencia have shown that even though they have had to sell their best players every summer due to the incredible debt they ran up earlier in the century they can still compete. Obviously compete is relative, they wont be likely to seriously challenge Real or Barca over a whole season, but they can give them a match and are far better than most of the rest of the Primera. This season Roberto Soldado has shown himself to be a possible international striker, especially with Villa and Torres both struggling with injuries and form. There can be no better incentive for him to continue scoring than the carrot of Euro 2012 this summer. Valencia managed a 1-0 win in the cup last night and with Villarreal similar to Atleti in missing that practise I would fancy them to start back with a win.
Back Valencia at 2.4 with Victor Chandler.
Udinese v Cesena, Sunday 1100
In something of a shock in Serie A Udinese had the chance to go into Xmas top of the table ahead of the likes of Juventus and AC Milan. That they didn't should take nothing away from a wonderful start to the season by them. Having lost the spine of last season's successful side many expected them to revert back to an upper mid-table side, but they have confounded expectations by at times looking even better. Much of this is down to the organisation throughout the side leading to a tight defence and then the evergreen Di Natale still scoring the goals to win them games. He can no longer be expected to play every match, but when he does they normally win. This is especially true at home where they have still not lost in eight matches, scoring fourteen and only conceding two.
Cesena have sadly looked like relegation fodder in most matches so far. With only three wins from sixteen matches and an even more damning eight goals scored they look in real trouble. They have somehow managed to conjure up two away wins, but they in a great little run where all three wins were achieved in four matches. That looks over again now and they will certainly not want to visit a rested Udinese side.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.76 with Victor Chandler.
Palermo v Napoli, Sunday 1945
What should be an entertaining match late Sunday evening comes from Palermo with them hosting Napoli. Both sides have come through in recent years and shown themselves to be capable of beating anyone on their day as well as challenging for Europa and Champions League spots. One of the oddities of the first half if the Italian season was Palermo's curious home and away form. At home they have only lost one of seven matches and won the remaining six whilst scoring sixteen and conceding seven. Away from home they still haven't won and had not even scored before the last match. Whilst they may have lost star man Pastore over the summer they have still kicked on in his absence and in Ilicic and Abel Hernandez they still possess very talented attackers.
Napoli have possibly let their league form slip at some points with their eyes more focussed on the progression they achieved in the Champions League at Man City's expense. They are a counter attacking side who happily sit back and soak up pressure before striking at pace with Lavezzi, Hamsik and Cavani able to cause any side defensive nightmares. To their already talented side they have added the incredibly gifted Chilean Eduardo Vargas. He will definitely be some player and could well already be causing problems by the time they face Chelsea in the Champions League. I see goals in this one, with Palermo a generally attacking outfit also giving up space for Napoli to counter.
Back over 2.5 Goals at 2.1 with Bet365.
Istanbul BB v Tranzonspor, Saturday 1400
Istanbul BB are another side that have come up trumps for us often this season as they have been very good at home for the most part . They were soundly beaten 4-1 by Gala on Tuesday, but they were right in it at 1-1 at half time before losing a man to a red card and eventually getting soundly beaten. This result should probably be discounted, or at least put down to their less impressive away form. At home they are still unbeaten, but have drawn five of eight. Goals have been an issue, as they often are for all except the big three from Istanbul, and they struggle to score enough to kill teams off.
Trabzon have had the Champions League as a distraction from the Super Lig and it shows in their sixth place at present. They scored a late goal at home to Manisaspor on Tuesday to snatch a 2-1 win, but again struggled for long periods. They may well need a couple of signings in January to freshen the side up if they still harbour hopes of a challenge at the peak of the table. At present though they have drawn five of eight away and similarly to Istanbul BB they have struggled for goals, relying on Yilmaz far too much.
Back the Draw at 3.2 with Coral.
Samsunspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
Again to the Super Lig and it's my pre-season tips for the title Gala travelling to struggling Samsunspor. Samsun did get a decent result in the week by drawing away at Gencler, but they really need to start winning some matche sif they hope to pull away from the relegation spots. They have only concede thirteen goals in eighteen matches so far, but there problem has been scoring with only sixteen registered and this leading to them being unable to covert draws into wins. They have won two from eight at home and drawn four. They have also been behind at half time in three of those matches.
Gala are continuing their march to the title at present. They opened the New Year with a 4-1 victory over Istanbul BB, which they may have struggled with at times but will give them renewed confidence in the final result. They have looked absolutely brilliant at times and seem to have really hit their stride lately. They have only lost two matches all season and their goal difference of +19 is miles better than anyone else. This is in part due to their excellent away form, they have only conceded three goals in nine matches so far. They have led at half time in four of those matches and in present form I fancy them to do the same here.
Back Galatasaray/Galatasaray HT/FT at 2.6 with William Hill.
The biggest of these was without a doubt title-chasing Man Utd losing at home to relegation favourites Blackburn Rovers. As I have carped on about all season I have had my doubts about the strength of this United side, and in particular the midfield. There are at least five sides with better midfield's than Utd this season and combine that with Rooney having another period where he looks like a pub player and it spells trouble. The loss to Blackburn didn't include Rooney, but Monday nights loss to Newcastle did. If anything this was even more embarrassing as it came with every fit first team player restored and Newcastle made it look easy at times. With no Vidic the defence can be added to the midfield and attack as currently massively underperforming. Similarly Chelsea have struggled, somehow contriving to lose from 1-0 up at home to a poor Villa side then having to snatch victory at Wolves. Man City looked in second gear beating Liverpool this week and will now fancy their chances of maintaining, and possibly, extending their lead at the top of the Premier League.
Music comes from In The Red with Dear Pride.
FA Cup 3rd Round.
I'm not generally a cup match backer as there is plenty of other football to bet on without having to worry about what team sides will put out in a cup match. However comma if it is your thing then I think Crawley, Barnsley, Swindon and MK Dons may well avoid defeats to higher opposition. In Crawley's case they will most likely be highly motivated to again show how far they have come in league football against a struggling Bristol City who have more pressing worries with staying in the Championship. For similar reason I would take on Swansea, QPR and Bolton away at Barnsley, Swindon and MK Dons respectively. All should really be more keen to cement Premier League places and rest players after a tiring Xmas period. My money will be invested elsewhere though this weekend.
Malaga v Atletico Madrid, Saturday 2100
Spain's sides have mostly played in the Copa Del Rey this week so they have had a bit of match action after a short Xmas break. Malaga hosted Real Madrid and managed to go into half time 2-0 ahead before succumbing to a second half onslaught and lose 3-2. As much as they might have hoped to hold on for a famous victory, there is no shame in losing to an exceptional Madrid side. I look at the first half performance as an indicator that the break has done them good and they have hit the ground running. They made some clever signings over the summer and at times have looked like they could move to the position of best of the rest given more time.
Atletico Madrid have as usual been a complete shambles most of the time, interspersed with the odd fantastic performance. The signing of Falcao from Porto initially looked like it would be a masterstroke, but his form has plummeted along with that of the rest of the side. After exiting the Copa Del Rey before Xmas the club finally parted ways with manager Manzano which they will hope will inject some fight back into what, on paper at least, looks a decent squad of players. The lack of cup football this week though means they will possibly be a bit leggier than Malaga and I would fancy them to take a few games before any improvements are obvious.
Back Malaga at 2.25 with William Hill.
Villarreal v Valencia, Sunday 1700
As I mentioned a numerous amount of times in the first half of the season, Villarreal look like their recent years of triumph and achievement are coming to an end. The scouting system that unearthed some brilliant players from South America seems to have slowed up somewhat in the last couple of years and most of the best players have either aged or left. Those like Guiseppe Rossi and Nilmar who provide much of the flair and goals have been injured for a lot of the season so far and Rossi is unlikely to appear at all. The back up is simply no better than the bottom half of the division, which is where they'll likely end up sadly.
Valencia have shown that even though they have had to sell their best players every summer due to the incredible debt they ran up earlier in the century they can still compete. Obviously compete is relative, they wont be likely to seriously challenge Real or Barca over a whole season, but they can give them a match and are far better than most of the rest of the Primera. This season Roberto Soldado has shown himself to be a possible international striker, especially with Villa and Torres both struggling with injuries and form. There can be no better incentive for him to continue scoring than the carrot of Euro 2012 this summer. Valencia managed a 1-0 win in the cup last night and with Villarreal similar to Atleti in missing that practise I would fancy them to start back with a win.
Back Valencia at 2.4 with Victor Chandler.
Udinese v Cesena, Sunday 1100
In something of a shock in Serie A Udinese had the chance to go into Xmas top of the table ahead of the likes of Juventus and AC Milan. That they didn't should take nothing away from a wonderful start to the season by them. Having lost the spine of last season's successful side many expected them to revert back to an upper mid-table side, but they have confounded expectations by at times looking even better. Much of this is down to the organisation throughout the side leading to a tight defence and then the evergreen Di Natale still scoring the goals to win them games. He can no longer be expected to play every match, but when he does they normally win. This is especially true at home where they have still not lost in eight matches, scoring fourteen and only conceding two.
Cesena have sadly looked like relegation fodder in most matches so far. With only three wins from sixteen matches and an even more damning eight goals scored they look in real trouble. They have somehow managed to conjure up two away wins, but they in a great little run where all three wins were achieved in four matches. That looks over again now and they will certainly not want to visit a rested Udinese side.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.76 with Victor Chandler.
Palermo v Napoli, Sunday 1945
What should be an entertaining match late Sunday evening comes from Palermo with them hosting Napoli. Both sides have come through in recent years and shown themselves to be capable of beating anyone on their day as well as challenging for Europa and Champions League spots. One of the oddities of the first half if the Italian season was Palermo's curious home and away form. At home they have only lost one of seven matches and won the remaining six whilst scoring sixteen and conceding seven. Away from home they still haven't won and had not even scored before the last match. Whilst they may have lost star man Pastore over the summer they have still kicked on in his absence and in Ilicic and Abel Hernandez they still possess very talented attackers.
Napoli have possibly let their league form slip at some points with their eyes more focussed on the progression they achieved in the Champions League at Man City's expense. They are a counter attacking side who happily sit back and soak up pressure before striking at pace with Lavezzi, Hamsik and Cavani able to cause any side defensive nightmares. To their already talented side they have added the incredibly gifted Chilean Eduardo Vargas. He will definitely be some player and could well already be causing problems by the time they face Chelsea in the Champions League. I see goals in this one, with Palermo a generally attacking outfit also giving up space for Napoli to counter.
Back over 2.5 Goals at 2.1 with Bet365.
Istanbul BB v Tranzonspor, Saturday 1400
Istanbul BB are another side that have come up trumps for us often this season as they have been very good at home for the most part . They were soundly beaten 4-1 by Gala on Tuesday, but they were right in it at 1-1 at half time before losing a man to a red card and eventually getting soundly beaten. This result should probably be discounted, or at least put down to their less impressive away form. At home they are still unbeaten, but have drawn five of eight. Goals have been an issue, as they often are for all except the big three from Istanbul, and they struggle to score enough to kill teams off.
Trabzon have had the Champions League as a distraction from the Super Lig and it shows in their sixth place at present. They scored a late goal at home to Manisaspor on Tuesday to snatch a 2-1 win, but again struggled for long periods. They may well need a couple of signings in January to freshen the side up if they still harbour hopes of a challenge at the peak of the table. At present though they have drawn five of eight away and similarly to Istanbul BB they have struggled for goals, relying on Yilmaz far too much.
Back the Draw at 3.2 with Coral.
Samsunspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
Again to the Super Lig and it's my pre-season tips for the title Gala travelling to struggling Samsunspor. Samsun did get a decent result in the week by drawing away at Gencler, but they really need to start winning some matche sif they hope to pull away from the relegation spots. They have only concede thirteen goals in eighteen matches so far, but there problem has been scoring with only sixteen registered and this leading to them being unable to covert draws into wins. They have won two from eight at home and drawn four. They have also been behind at half time in three of those matches.
Gala are continuing their march to the title at present. They opened the New Year with a 4-1 victory over Istanbul BB, which they may have struggled with at times but will give them renewed confidence in the final result. They have looked absolutely brilliant at times and seem to have really hit their stride lately. They have only lost two matches all season and their goal difference of +19 is miles better than anyone else. This is in part due to their excellent away form, they have only conceded three goals in nine matches so far. They have led at half time in four of those matches and in present form I fancy them to do the same here.
Back Galatasaray/Galatasaray HT/FT at 2.6 with William Hill.
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