Another loss last weekend I'm afraid, but one thing to draw from it on the positive side. Those of you that follow the blog due to the perceived 'value' betting I aim to provide will be pleased to know that every bet put up last weekend, with the exception of Liverpool, had shortened (for backing) or lengthened (for laying). This is by no means a reason to celebrate, as we lost out again, but is an indication that I think the tips are still worth following and should turn around for us all.
Music this week from Off With Their Heads with Drive.
Week 2
Liverpool v Southampton - Win 3.6 points.
Cardiff v Tottenham - Lose 2 points.
Osasuna v Elche - Lose 2 points.
Sassuolo v Inter Milan - Win 2.12 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Braunschweig - Win 0.8 points.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen - Lose 2 points.
Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi - Lose 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray - ABANDONED - Refund 2 points.
Totals - Lose 1.48 points.
Running Total - Lose 8.44 points.
Tottenham v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
The early kick-off on Saturday has a few storylines running through it. The master and the apprentice relationship between Jose Mourinho and his former assistant Andre Villas Boas being the main one. They have not exactly been the best of friends since their parting of ways and they bring two of the leagues best sides so far to this match. Tottenham have somewhat slipped under the radar for their good start, probably due to not blowing sides away as yet. I always put emphasis on sides defensive attributes now having been stung previously when preferring attacking stats. Tottenham have so far only conceded a single goal this season and have also not lost. The signings made over the summer with the Gareth Bale money, for me, make them a much stronger side and I certainly wouldn't rule out a serious push towards the peak of the table the way they're going. If they sign another reliable striker in January they would have almost a perfectly balanced squad. Villas Boas also seems to be handling the rotation of players well in these early days.
Chelsea haven't started as well under Jose Mourinho as many expected. You could even argue that Rafael Benitez had them playing better towards the end of last season. That being said, Mourinho is not doing terribly. The main gripe people have is with his, now typical, sidelining of formerly important players. The fact he has done this at seemingly every club he has managed has made his decision to keep Juan Mata and David Luiz away from the side seem a little childish to some observers. Chelsea look to me to be a typical Mourinho side currently, just without a reliable goalscorer. The decision to let Romelu Lukaku go out on loan and to be stuck with Fernando Torres and Demba Ba shows up the paucity of Chelsea's options. I think Mourinho would happily leave this match with a draw and his side look a bit short for a win to me.
Lay Chelsea at 2.88 on Betfair. 2 points.
Hull City v West Ham, Saturday 1500
I'm struggling a little bit to find anything that stands out as a bet in the Premier League at the weekend to be quite honest. It's never easy anyway, but only this and the Fulham v Cardiff match seem to represent anything like value for me. I'm going to plump for this as the payout will be bigger!
Hull have started the season better than many expected under Steve Bruce following promotion. I have mentioned before that I am not at all sold on Bruce's abilities as a manager and think he's often wasted a lot of money on not improving Birmingham and Sunderland. However comma he can certainly get a side to a position of safety in the Premier League, I just wouldn't expect any more. With Hull he looks to be going the same way. To give him some more credit I also believe the signing of Tom Huddlestone may well be one of the best bits of business this summer. Whilst he never lived up to his early billing at Tottenham he showed that even in the higher reaches of the league he can be a valuable player. His early passing and settling influence in Hull's midfield have been a huge boost to the side. Unfortunately with only Danny Graham as a striker Hull do look a little light on goals.
West Ham are still after a first away win in six months in the Premier League. This didn't harm them too much last season as they finished tenth and could be put down to a definite tactical approach by manager Sam Allardyce. Allardyce has always been a pragmatist and will know that his side aren't going to crack Europe any time soon and that mid-table is about their position. With this in mind their best chances are to avoid relegation scraps and hope for a good cup run or surge up the league. This will be done on the back of not losing many away matches and making the Boleyn Ground something of a fortress. So the set-up for away matches is damage limitation. They also lack a goalscorer, especially with Andy Carroll again suffering from an injury.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.72 with Stan James. 2 points.
Osasuna v Levante, Sunday 1100
Osasuna made hard work of winning last Friday and beating our laying of them against newly promoted Elche. I would argue that the odds were definitely a bit on the short side. They are struggling for goals themselves and have found their usually tough and resolute defence more leaky than in previous years. In fact, they have conceded in every match so far to have a record of played six and conceded twelve. I think they're worth another look at laying here against a better side at similar odds.
Levante have turned up some great profits for those that have followed the blog for a few seasons. To look at their side you wouldn't necessarily see any reason for them to get in the higher reaches of La Liga, but they seemingly always get around European football. This can be put down to great management and clever signings in my opinion. They sign players who have often previously played well, but been released for free due to injuries or a poor season, or older players deemed to be at the end of their careers. They then seem to nearly always coax out some good performances and create an all-for-one spirit. They've only lost one match this season and that was the 7-0 defeat at Barcelona on matchday one.
Lay Osasuna at 2.17 on Betfair. 2 points.
Cagliari v Inter Milan, Sunday 1400
Cagliari opened the Serie A season with a win, but have not won in the four matches since. They have, in fact, drawn their last three matches and have conceded in every match so far. They finished last season in mid-table and I think they'll probably be there or thereabouts again this season. Their problem is in the fact that they concede quite a lot of goals and they seem to have done nothing about that over the summer. To be honest this is a bet more on Inter Milan than against Cagliari though.
I have so far won on every match involving Inter Milan so far this season as they have drastically improved already under new manager Walter Mazzari. This hit it's peak in last weekends 7-0 destruction of Sassuolo in Sassuolo. It shows just how much of a difference a sensible managerial appointment can make as Mazzari has improved every club he's been with and has seemingly done it again. He has tightened up the defence whilst rejuvenating the attack and now also has Diego Milito returning from injury and already back amongst the goals. Ricky Alvarez was hailed as a coup buy when brought in, but had then looked underweight and seemed destined to leave before Mazzari came in and relieved him of defensive responsibilities to see him probably Inter's best player so far as a playmaker. They've already got an away win at Catania (always difficult) to add to the Sassuolo win and I think Mazzari's tactics are worth backing again.
Back Inter Milan at 2.11 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Hamburger SV, Saturday 1730
Eintracht Frankfurt had a storming return to the Bundesliga last season and managed to qualify for the Europa League. The problem for a side when this happens is that the addition of an extra competition can weigh heavy on squads. A team is very unlikely to have put together a large, balanced squad for domestic and European football and a second season drop off can occur. Frankfurt should stay well clear of any problems, but three losses from six match and two losses from two at home show that they may well face issues this season. They have actually fared better away from home so far and that comes into my thinking also.
Hamburg again look like they may be in trouble and have dispensed with manager Thorsten Fink, who had looked a little callow for the role. Looking at the talent available to him within the squad I would say that is the right decision considering the quality of his replacement. The club have just moved to bring in ex-Holland coach Bert van Marwijk, who also has previous managerial experience in the Bundesliga from his time at Borussia Dortmund. He is also something of an expert in crisis aversion having taken over Dortmund after their bankruptcy and Holland after yet another period of internal strife. He steadied Dortmund and guided Holland to a World Cup final. There should be an improvement in form under him and I think Frankfurt might see an early good result with European football again on the horizon.
Lay Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.8 on Betfair. 2 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Freiburg, Saturday 1430
The two big boys of the Bundesliga have flown out of the marks this season and currently Borussia Dortmund are impressing more. There was huge disappointment at the club when it was announced that Mario Gotze would be moving to Bayern Munich, but they seem to have improved the side with the money brought in. Henrik Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have slotted in seemlessly and have added more goals and pace to an already formidable attacking line. Even the decision to let Robert Lewandowski see out his contract seems to not have affected his form with him putting in no less effort for the team. And then there's Marco Reus. He's becoming more and more appreciated outside of Germany, but I consider him to be one of the finest attackers in Europe. His constant running and positive movement have fitted right in at Dortmund and he is thriving again this season. The team have scored sixteen in six already and whilst there are issues at the back, they'll be unlikely to be exploited this weekend. It's going to be a two horse race in Germany, but with two fine horses!
Freiburg were probably the surprise package of the Bundesliga last season, but were taken apart by bigger clubs over the summer. They finished fifth in the league and qualified for the Europa League and are another side ill-equipped for the extra competition. The German Dfb Pokal was also on this week and this will add another match to their diaries before the leagues form side turns up. It doesn't look good for Freiburg.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 1.22 with ComeOn! 3 points.
Elazigspor v Sivasspor, Sunday 1400
My Turkish tips have not come up great so far this season. Whilst I still think there's value in the draws in such a low scoring league I may move away from that particular shout as it's prone to leave you very disappointed if a late winner is scored for either side!
Elazigspor were promoted last season and did ok to finish safely in lower mid-table away from the dangers of a relegation scrap. As many sides in Turkey do they relied upon home form to drag them through and only lost four matches in their own ground all season. They drew seven too as well as winning six with a brilliant goals against record of seventeen. Their problems lay in the fact they only managed to score fourteen in those seventeen matches. That they have already scored four in two home matches, for a win and a draw, is therefore an encouraging sign of improvement for them. They are unbeaten so far and look a strong team.
Sivasspor so far have a very stereotypical record for the SuperLig with two wins and a loss at home and two defeats from two away. I've often mentioned the fact that outside of the biggest sides in the division and the odd form side win away from home. They've conceded six in those two away matches and look short odds to get anything out of this match.
Back Elazigpor at 2.58 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Kasimpasa v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1700
Kasimpasa are shaping up to be the Super Lig's entertainers so far with them scoring in every game after their season opener. In their other four matches they have been involved in two matches with three goals and matches with four and five goals. What this backs up is that their defence leaves a lot to be desired, but that their attack is good and they seemingly keep plugging away, possibly without learning! The Turkish matches seem to often be priced up as though all matches are even and that means low on goals.
Eskisehirspor are often to be found nearer the top than the bottom of the table. Their away form last season was actually ok by Turkish standards with seven draws, six losses and four defeats in total. The best part was that they only conceded twenty goals in those matches, a fine record for anyone outside the Istanbul giants. They have already conceded four away from home in this seasons two matches though. They have in fact been involved in a 2-1 and a 3-2 in their last two matches showing that at present the balance between attack and defence is off.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.0 with BetInternet. 2 points.
Thursday, 26 September 2013
Thursday, 19 September 2013
Picking Up The Pieces...
First off, my humblest apologies for a pretty poor return to the tipping game. In my defence the start of seasons can often be tough as teams settle in and there's a lack of form to go off. Last season was something of an anomaly in the way we got flying off the marks, although I'd still hope to do better than last weekend. I've had another chance to see some UEFA club football this week so hopefully the more teams play the better the profits will be.
Musical recommendation is from The Menzingers with Richard Coury, another favourite band of mine.
Week 1 Results
Aston Villa v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.
Southampton v West Ham - Win 2.24 points.
Inter Milan v Juventus - Win 1.6 points.
Napoli v Atalanta - Win 1.2 points.
Malaga v Rayo Vallecano - Lose 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04 - Lose 2 points.
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96 - Lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 6.96 points.
Week 2
Liverpool v Southampton, Saturday 1500
It's no secret that in the past two seasons I have regularly layed Liverpool with the belief that bookmakers often price them too short. If you look back through my results, and the profit I have made from laying them, then I would certainly say my opinion is based in truth. However, I did think that they were moving back towards a fair price as Brendan Rodgers seemed to be getting a semblance of order into the side that went against their low league position. They have started this season well in terms of results, but I think this has slightly skewed the odds again as bookmakers seem keen to get them short. I would suggest they are being kept afloat by Daniel Sturridge, who is carrying an injury and needs a rest, and Philip Coutinho, who is now injured for a few weeks. They are still going to be hard to beat, but I don't have them as short as 1.44 in any universe for this.
Southampton were one of the few results to go our way last week with their draw against West Ham. In truth they made us sweat a bit as they were regularly attacking, but missed a final ball and also look a side still working each other out. Pablo Osvaldo is a very good forward, in my opinion, but they need to integrate him better. That being said they looked a solid side for the most part and actually a bit better than I gave them credit for. I still think they may be over-estimated against the poorer sides at home, but conversely I think they might be underestimated against the better sides. This is a case in point so I'm happy to take a chance on this theory.
With Liverpool too I would generally wait until a couple of hours before kick-off as they always seem to shorten up a bit to lay.
Lay Liverpool on Saturday at 1.55 on Betfair. 2 points.
Cardiff v Tottenham, Sunday 1600
Cardiff were comfortable Championship winners last season under manager Malky Mackay, who also did a great job at Watford previously. I had thought the arrival of rich, Far-Eastern owners might see him pushed aside, but they stuck with him and he repaid that faith. I think he's certainly a manager with a chance to make an impression and some of his signings have suggested a good knowledge of world football sometimes lacking in his more experienced peers. I personally think Gary Medel is a great addition. He will definitely get a few cards, but has huge experience and that bite to his game should set a good tone for the rest of the side. They have already shocked Manchester City by winning 3-2 in Wales and I think they can make it a bit of a fortress for themselves in their bid to stay up.
Tottenham have, for me, made some truly exceptional signings this summer and Andres Villas Boas has again shown himself to be a very astute manager. I'm a confirmed fan anyway, he just seems to appreciate a team and how to put one together. Cristian Eriksen looked an excellent signing already on his debut last weekend and something of a bargain in today's market too. I also think the likes of Paulinho and Etienne Capoue stand a very good chance of being successful. Villas Boas often rests players for the Europa League, and I would expect that to be the case, but some will certainly play tonight and on Sunday. This combined with the fact I think they are still getting used to each other and I don't see them justifying their short odds this weekend.
Lay Tottenham at 1.87 on Betfair. 2 points.
Osasuna v Elche, Friday 2000
Osasuna had been a good bet for us when at home to better sides in La Liga for the past two seasons, but had definitely become less so last time. This has continued into this season with them having lost all four matches so far and sitting bottom of the table. They simply look like their legendary fight has gone out of them and without that they're barely half the side in truth. Imagine Stoke without any battle and that's the current Osasuna outfit. This is a match they would expect to win if they want to have any chance of climbing the table, but there's little to justify such short odds.
Elche were one of the three promoted sides and, as is normal in La Liga, they've spent almost nothing on that side. This isn't actually necessary a huge problem in Spain as apart from Barcelona and the big two from Madrid no side spends any money. You are often relying on keeping a side together and hoping a player you take a chance on is a success or an existing player suddenly comes good. Elche have started the season with no wins, but three draws and a loss.The loss came in their opening match to a Rayo Vallecano side capable of doing that on their day and has seen creditable draws at home to Real Sociedad and Real Valladolid and away to Almeria. They seem slightly undervalued to me.
Lay Osasuna at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sassuolo v Inter Milan, Sunday 1130
Sassuolo are another promoted side in Europe, this time in Italy's Serie A. They were actually Serie B champions last season, but look the least likely to stay up of the promoted sides. They are currently bottom having lost all three matches so far. That they have also only scored one goal and conceded eight really serves to highlight how hard it is going to be for them. They might yet find their feet, but they could already be too far adrift by that point. They look a side that is heading straight back down to me.
The appointment of Walter Mazzari at Inter Milan is already looking incredibly shrewd. They got a very creditable draw with Juventus last weekend to again give us some money back. They also conceded the first goal of the season to show the immediate impact Mazzari has had upon the defence, an area of concern in recent seasons. That they purchased Hugo Campagnaro was an excellent move. He has been in Mazzari sides for over five years and should be able to help the rest of the defence adjust straight away. They have no European football to tire them out and should be fresh and ready for this. They look short odds, but it's all about the rest and lack of quality of the opposition.
Back Inter Milan at 1.87 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Braunschweig, Friday 1930
Borussia Monchengladbach were a column favourite two seasons ago when Marco Reus inspired them to climb to fourth in the table. They had an incredible home record, let in very few goals and Reus was inspirational and fully earned his big move to Borussia Dortmund. Last season saw them struggling for a new way of playing without Reus's flair and goals and they were punished for committing more players forward with some heavy defeats. By the end of the season though they seemed to have found a much better balance, particularly at home. The summer signing of Max Kruse from Freiburg was also very astute and has seen him named as the Bundesliga signing of the summer by many in the know. They have managed to score in all five matches and have won both home matches so far with an aggregate score of 7-1. Kruse and Juan Arango have both looked excellent in those wins.
Eintracht Braunschweig were promoted from the Bundesliga II and are already struggling with the increased quality. They sit bottom with one draw and four losses and two goals scored and ten conceded. The other issue is that apart from Borussia Dortmund they've not even played a good side yet. Nurnberg, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Werder Bremen aren't exactly the leading lights of the league. There's an argument Monchengladbach might not represent value, but I think they're the right price and I'm happy to back them on that basis.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 1.4 with Coral.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
Last weekend Mainz 05 let us down in narrowly being beaten at home by Schalke 04. There's no particular shame in that as Schalke certainly have a decent side, they just look unlikely to repeat their performances of the last two seasons any time soon. Mainz only lost 0-1 so they weren't exactly blown away either. They also don't have Europa League football this season to tire them out or add to the injury list and this should aid their bid to finish in a good position. That they have already had four different scorers also bodes well as they can struggle for goals at times with no 'stand-out' striker. Nicolai Muller's three goals already will see hope that he can continue in that vein and has seen him win his first international cap against Ecuador recently.
Bayer Leverkusen put in a disappointing performance against Manchester United this Tuesday in their return to the Champions League. They were soundly beaten 4-2 at Old Trafford and looked all at sea defensively at times. They will have had hopes of progressing on from last seasons third place finish as the management duo of Sacsha Lewandowski and Sami Hyypia looked like it didn't work from the outside. With Lewandowski moving aside it was hoped Hyypia could progress the side on his own. It's far too early for judgement on that, but they look very short odds on this weeks performance. I'll side against them this week and give Mainz another chance.
Lay Leverkusen at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1600
Last weekend wasn't my finest in Turkey's Super Lig with both bets lost. I must admit I am definitely playing catch up on the signings over the summer as they are not the easiest to come across when you're on the other side of the world! However, purely on current form and previous knowledge of Turkish football this looks a good bet. It is very tough to win away at a decent side in Turkey, especially for those sides outside the big three from Istanbul who don't carry any fear factor either. Konyaspor have actually returned to the Super Lig from Lig 2 over the summer via the play-offs, and look to be struggling slightly already. They have won one and lost one at home and also lost both away matches so far. They've scored four and conceded four at home too. The one win came in a comeback from 0-2 at home to Fenerbahce on the opening weekend and they've struggled to build on that with the three losses.
Genclerbirligi really pushed the big sides three seasons ago, but have struggled ever since. They have even been perilously close to relegation and seem to now be stuck as a bottom half side. They have been particularly poor away from home and have continued that theme this season in losing both away matches so far and not scoring a goal in either. They've got a win and a draw at home to show they're not a bad side, but they just can't seem to travel well. I'll again back the draw here as I did last week in a different match. Turkey seems to have more draws than most leagues owing to the low amounts of goals scored outside the Istanbul three.
Back the Draw at 3.38 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
The big match this weekend, and of the season so far, in Turkey is one of the six Istanbul derbies a season with Galatasaray crossing town to play Besiktas. Last season saw Besiktas finally abandon their policy of signing foreign players nearing the end of their careers from Spain and Portugal and hoping for a swansong on big wages. Sadly for them it nearly always ended in the players merely turning up for the pay packet and having little, or no, commitment to the cause. Last season they went with only Portugese Hugo Almeida up front and Manuel Fernandes in midfield, but both of these were not at the end of their careers and had shown that they were good players in the Super Lig. The majority of the rest of the side is drawn from Turkey and players performing at other clubs being given a shot at a bigger side. So far this season they have won all four matches and look the team to beat. They have also scored eleven and conceded four to show they certainly have the attacking potency to maintain a title challenge.
Galatasaray reached the knockout stages of the Champions League last season having steadily built a side that was by far the best in Turkey. They then went mad and added Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba to the squad on big wages and I think it has unbalanced the side. They're still one of the top sides in Turkey, but play seems to slow through Sneijder and Drogba seems to struggle for motivation at times. They will definitely battle with Besiktas for the title, but they've not hit their stride yet at all. They've only won one match and drawn three so far, the win coming at home. Four goals in four is pretty poor for them too, especially with the investment in attacking players. All this makes Gala seem very short to win to me.
Back Besiktas at 2.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Musical recommendation is from The Menzingers with Richard Coury, another favourite band of mine.
Week 1 Results
Aston Villa v Newcastle - Lose 2 points.
Southampton v West Ham - Win 2.24 points.
Inter Milan v Juventus - Win 1.6 points.
Napoli v Atalanta - Win 1.2 points.
Malaga v Rayo Vallecano - Lose 2 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04 - Lose 2 points.
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96 - Lose 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor - Lose 2 points.
Totals - Lose 6.96 points.
Week 2
Liverpool v Southampton, Saturday 1500
It's no secret that in the past two seasons I have regularly layed Liverpool with the belief that bookmakers often price them too short. If you look back through my results, and the profit I have made from laying them, then I would certainly say my opinion is based in truth. However, I did think that they were moving back towards a fair price as Brendan Rodgers seemed to be getting a semblance of order into the side that went against their low league position. They have started this season well in terms of results, but I think this has slightly skewed the odds again as bookmakers seem keen to get them short. I would suggest they are being kept afloat by Daniel Sturridge, who is carrying an injury and needs a rest, and Philip Coutinho, who is now injured for a few weeks. They are still going to be hard to beat, but I don't have them as short as 1.44 in any universe for this.
Southampton were one of the few results to go our way last week with their draw against West Ham. In truth they made us sweat a bit as they were regularly attacking, but missed a final ball and also look a side still working each other out. Pablo Osvaldo is a very good forward, in my opinion, but they need to integrate him better. That being said they looked a solid side for the most part and actually a bit better than I gave them credit for. I still think they may be over-estimated against the poorer sides at home, but conversely I think they might be underestimated against the better sides. This is a case in point so I'm happy to take a chance on this theory.
With Liverpool too I would generally wait until a couple of hours before kick-off as they always seem to shorten up a bit to lay.
Lay Liverpool on Saturday at 1.55 on Betfair. 2 points.
Cardiff v Tottenham, Sunday 1600
Cardiff were comfortable Championship winners last season under manager Malky Mackay, who also did a great job at Watford previously. I had thought the arrival of rich, Far-Eastern owners might see him pushed aside, but they stuck with him and he repaid that faith. I think he's certainly a manager with a chance to make an impression and some of his signings have suggested a good knowledge of world football sometimes lacking in his more experienced peers. I personally think Gary Medel is a great addition. He will definitely get a few cards, but has huge experience and that bite to his game should set a good tone for the rest of the side. They have already shocked Manchester City by winning 3-2 in Wales and I think they can make it a bit of a fortress for themselves in their bid to stay up.
Tottenham have, for me, made some truly exceptional signings this summer and Andres Villas Boas has again shown himself to be a very astute manager. I'm a confirmed fan anyway, he just seems to appreciate a team and how to put one together. Cristian Eriksen looked an excellent signing already on his debut last weekend and something of a bargain in today's market too. I also think the likes of Paulinho and Etienne Capoue stand a very good chance of being successful. Villas Boas often rests players for the Europa League, and I would expect that to be the case, but some will certainly play tonight and on Sunday. This combined with the fact I think they are still getting used to each other and I don't see them justifying their short odds this weekend.
Lay Tottenham at 1.87 on Betfair. 2 points.
Osasuna v Elche, Friday 2000
Osasuna had been a good bet for us when at home to better sides in La Liga for the past two seasons, but had definitely become less so last time. This has continued into this season with them having lost all four matches so far and sitting bottom of the table. They simply look like their legendary fight has gone out of them and without that they're barely half the side in truth. Imagine Stoke without any battle and that's the current Osasuna outfit. This is a match they would expect to win if they want to have any chance of climbing the table, but there's little to justify such short odds.
Elche were one of the three promoted sides and, as is normal in La Liga, they've spent almost nothing on that side. This isn't actually necessary a huge problem in Spain as apart from Barcelona and the big two from Madrid no side spends any money. You are often relying on keeping a side together and hoping a player you take a chance on is a success or an existing player suddenly comes good. Elche have started the season with no wins, but three draws and a loss.The loss came in their opening match to a Rayo Vallecano side capable of doing that on their day and has seen creditable draws at home to Real Sociedad and Real Valladolid and away to Almeria. They seem slightly undervalued to me.
Lay Osasuna at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sassuolo v Inter Milan, Sunday 1130
Sassuolo are another promoted side in Europe, this time in Italy's Serie A. They were actually Serie B champions last season, but look the least likely to stay up of the promoted sides. They are currently bottom having lost all three matches so far. That they have also only scored one goal and conceded eight really serves to highlight how hard it is going to be for them. They might yet find their feet, but they could already be too far adrift by that point. They look a side that is heading straight back down to me.
The appointment of Walter Mazzari at Inter Milan is already looking incredibly shrewd. They got a very creditable draw with Juventus last weekend to again give us some money back. They also conceded the first goal of the season to show the immediate impact Mazzari has had upon the defence, an area of concern in recent seasons. That they purchased Hugo Campagnaro was an excellent move. He has been in Mazzari sides for over five years and should be able to help the rest of the defence adjust straight away. They have no European football to tire them out and should be fresh and ready for this. They look short odds, but it's all about the rest and lack of quality of the opposition.
Back Inter Milan at 1.87 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Eintracht Braunschweig, Friday 1930
Borussia Monchengladbach were a column favourite two seasons ago when Marco Reus inspired them to climb to fourth in the table. They had an incredible home record, let in very few goals and Reus was inspirational and fully earned his big move to Borussia Dortmund. Last season saw them struggling for a new way of playing without Reus's flair and goals and they were punished for committing more players forward with some heavy defeats. By the end of the season though they seemed to have found a much better balance, particularly at home. The summer signing of Max Kruse from Freiburg was also very astute and has seen him named as the Bundesliga signing of the summer by many in the know. They have managed to score in all five matches and have won both home matches so far with an aggregate score of 7-1. Kruse and Juan Arango have both looked excellent in those wins.
Eintracht Braunschweig were promoted from the Bundesliga II and are already struggling with the increased quality. They sit bottom with one draw and four losses and two goals scored and ten conceded. The other issue is that apart from Borussia Dortmund they've not even played a good side yet. Nurnberg, Hamburg, Frankfurt and Werder Bremen aren't exactly the leading lights of the league. There's an argument Monchengladbach might not represent value, but I think they're the right price and I'm happy to back them on that basis.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 1.4 with Coral.
Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
Last weekend Mainz 05 let us down in narrowly being beaten at home by Schalke 04. There's no particular shame in that as Schalke certainly have a decent side, they just look unlikely to repeat their performances of the last two seasons any time soon. Mainz only lost 0-1 so they weren't exactly blown away either. They also don't have Europa League football this season to tire them out or add to the injury list and this should aid their bid to finish in a good position. That they have already had four different scorers also bodes well as they can struggle for goals at times with no 'stand-out' striker. Nicolai Muller's three goals already will see hope that he can continue in that vein and has seen him win his first international cap against Ecuador recently.
Bayer Leverkusen put in a disappointing performance against Manchester United this Tuesday in their return to the Champions League. They were soundly beaten 4-2 at Old Trafford and looked all at sea defensively at times. They will have had hopes of progressing on from last seasons third place finish as the management duo of Sacsha Lewandowski and Sami Hyypia looked like it didn't work from the outside. With Lewandowski moving aside it was hoped Hyypia could progress the side on his own. It's far too early for judgement on that, but they look very short odds on this weeks performance. I'll side against them this week and give Mainz another chance.
Lay Leverkusen at 2.15 on Betfair. 2 points.
Konyaspor v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1600
Last weekend wasn't my finest in Turkey's Super Lig with both bets lost. I must admit I am definitely playing catch up on the signings over the summer as they are not the easiest to come across when you're on the other side of the world! However, purely on current form and previous knowledge of Turkish football this looks a good bet. It is very tough to win away at a decent side in Turkey, especially for those sides outside the big three from Istanbul who don't carry any fear factor either. Konyaspor have actually returned to the Super Lig from Lig 2 over the summer via the play-offs, and look to be struggling slightly already. They have won one and lost one at home and also lost both away matches so far. They've scored four and conceded four at home too. The one win came in a comeback from 0-2 at home to Fenerbahce on the opening weekend and they've struggled to build on that with the three losses.
Genclerbirligi really pushed the big sides three seasons ago, but have struggled ever since. They have even been perilously close to relegation and seem to now be stuck as a bottom half side. They have been particularly poor away from home and have continued that theme this season in losing both away matches so far and not scoring a goal in either. They've got a win and a draw at home to show they're not a bad side, but they just can't seem to travel well. I'll again back the draw here as I did last week in a different match. Turkey seems to have more draws than most leagues owing to the low amounts of goals scored outside the Istanbul three.
Back the Draw at 3.38 with PinnacleBet. 2 points.
Besiktas v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
The big match this weekend, and of the season so far, in Turkey is one of the six Istanbul derbies a season with Galatasaray crossing town to play Besiktas. Last season saw Besiktas finally abandon their policy of signing foreign players nearing the end of their careers from Spain and Portugal and hoping for a swansong on big wages. Sadly for them it nearly always ended in the players merely turning up for the pay packet and having little, or no, commitment to the cause. Last season they went with only Portugese Hugo Almeida up front and Manuel Fernandes in midfield, but both of these were not at the end of their careers and had shown that they were good players in the Super Lig. The majority of the rest of the side is drawn from Turkey and players performing at other clubs being given a shot at a bigger side. So far this season they have won all four matches and look the team to beat. They have also scored eleven and conceded four to show they certainly have the attacking potency to maintain a title challenge.
Galatasaray reached the knockout stages of the Champions League last season having steadily built a side that was by far the best in Turkey. They then went mad and added Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba to the squad on big wages and I think it has unbalanced the side. They're still one of the top sides in Turkey, but play seems to slow through Sneijder and Drogba seems to struggle for motivation at times. They will definitely battle with Besiktas for the title, but they've not hit their stride yet at all. They've only won one match and drawn three so far, the win coming at home. Four goals in four is pretty poor for them too, especially with the investment in attacking players. All this makes Gala seem very short to win to me.
Back Besiktas at 2.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Thursday, 12 September 2013
Back in business...
Good afternoon all. After an almost six month break from the tipping I am returning to action and hoping to pick up where we left off...in profit! Those of you who also follow my TopTopTips page on Facebook will know I put up a couple of international qualifiers tips to whet the appetite. Although, sadly, they ended up slightly down. I'll endeavour to improve here with the bread and butter of league football returning. We will stick to the previous format for now, unless anyone would like to suggest improvements?
Music this week comes from Drag The River with Beautiful And Damned. Bit of a soppy one to start, but a huge personal favourite of mine.
Week 1
Aston Villa v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
Now then, Villa were very close to relegation last season and with no 'names' signed this summer the bookmakers had them down as outside bets for relegation in the odds. I personally think they have a decent shot at a top half finish if they can avoid too many injuries. I'm a big fan of their manager, Paul Lambert, and think now he has had a season to get the players used to his style of play and add a few more to the squad they should kick on. Getting rid of some players who were very unhappy and on big salaries will also lift the mood (Darren Bent, Stephen Ireland) and getting Christian Benteke to stay on for the season is huge. I have the big Belgian down as a future leading man at a Champions League club and possible star of next summer's World Cup in Brazil for Belgium now he has cemented his place as first choice striker for them too. They've had a decent start to the season and I'd expect them to be winning matches like this.
Newcastle look a side in a mess to most observers, me included. To say they over-achieved in Alan Pardew's first season in finishing fifth is a huge understatement. There's definitely some excellent players at the club, but Pardew doesn't seem to know how to utilise them at all. With intelligent footballers like Yohan Cabaye and flair like Hatem Ben Arfa they should be a threat to most sides, but Pardew has reduced them to a long ball outfit. He seems to have set them up to simply try and grind points out with Ben Arfa occasionally chucked in to mix things up with no clear instructions as to how. This might well work on rare occasions, but won't keep them out of trouble. I think they'll again get dangerously close to relegation unless something changes drastically. I don't think the odds are miles out at all, but I think there's a little bit of value left in backing Villa.
Back Aston Villa at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.
Southampton v West Ham, Sunday 1600
One side who I think are being massively over-fancied by the bookmakers currently are Southampton. The Saints have certainly made some interesting signings. The likes of Dejan Lovren and Victor Wanyama have been linked with much bigger sides and in that sense are a real coup for Southampton. However comma that doesn't necessarily mean they'll fit in or excel. The signing of Wanyama in particular seems strange, given that in Morgan Schneiderlin they already had one of the Premier Leagues best defensive midfielders of last season at the club. Considering they were a comfortably lower part of the league side last season they seem incredibly short priced to win matches at the moment. I'm still not certain that Mauricio Pochettino is going to take them anywhere fast.
West Ham are rapidly turning into exactly what everyone expects of a Sam Allardyce side. They are full of big, strong players in most positions, with the odd flair player chucked in to give them another option. This approach saw them steering well clear of relegation last season after promotion and it's easy to understand why the board are backing Allardyce. Whilst I'd be loathe to pay to watch an Allardyce side as a neutral, I'd be very happy to have him in charge of my side if I wanted some security. He'll make the team hard to beat first of all, before adding players that may well be undervalued at other clubs like Kevin Nolan or Stewart Downing. Nolan is an excellent player at chasing knock downs and second balls and has a great scoring record and Downing may never have been a £20million player for Liverpool, but could turn out to be an excellent £6million signing for West Ham. No team will get an easy match against West Ham.
Lay Southampton at 1.89 on Betfair. 2 points.
Inter Milan v Juventus, Saturday 1700
Inter Milan are very much a club in the midst of huge change at the moment. The owner, Massimo Moratti, looks likely to sell his controlling stake in the club after over two decades in charge to an Asian businessman. They also appointed ex-Napoli manager Walter Mazzari this summer after Andrea Strammacioni was relieved of his position. This could be seen as slightly unfortunate for Strammacioni after a huge injury list crippled his side at times last season, but Mazzari is a great appointment. He has improved every club he has managed and turned Napoli into serious league title contenders in three seasons. The raw materials at Inter are not bad at all and with two wins from two and no goals conceded he has hit the ground running. I think they may well represent value early on after a few seasons of underachievement. No European football should actually aid their league form too.
Juventus have emerged from their match-fixing enforced relegation to Serie B as by far the best side in Italy of the last two seasons. Whilst Antonio Conte can sometimes be a very conservative manager he can't be faulted in the amount he has improved the side. Italy was seen as on a very steep downward curve in their standing in European football before Juventus restored respect. Whilst they don't have the players to blow a good side away, no team will get past them without a hard match. They are strong throughout the side and have once again added more good players to the squad like Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack. In Paul Pogba they also probably have the best young central midfielder in world football. This being said Conte has always been happy to leave tough away matches with a draw and I think Juve are a little short to win this with that in mind.
Lay Juventus at 2.24 on Betfair. 2 points.
Napoli v Atalanta, Saturday 1945
The only side that have really challenged Juventus domination of Serie A in the last two seasons are Napoli. After a summer where Walter Mazzari was replaced by Rafa Benitez as manager and Edinson Cavani left for Paris St Germain they have started like a rocket. The money brought in by Cavani's sale was added to and Benitez has brought in Gonzalo Higuain, Jose Callejon, Pepe Reina, Raul Albiol and Dries Mertens to an already very talented squad. With two wins from two and seven goals scored, four by Marek Hamsik, they sit top of Serie A at this very early stage. Hamsik in particular looks to be benefitting from a more advanced role under Benitez and should be the key man for the side. He's always had immense talent, but finally looks like he will fulfil it. If Juventus are not focussed or firing on all cyclinders then this could well finally be Napoli's year in Serie A.
Atalanta are something of a mainstay in Serie A now. They usually have a very good home record which keeps them away from serious trouble, but nowhere near European football either. This is no bad thing for a side that spends very little money on new players at all. Last season they were beaten in eleven of nineteen matches away from home and I see little reason why this would particularly improve. They have started the season with a win at home and a loss away and will not be looking forward to this trip to a side who are currently looking very impressive.
Back Napoli at 1.4 with William Hill. 3 points.
Malaga v Rayo Vallecano, Sunday 1800
Under previous manager Manuel Pellegrini Malaga had managed to somehow perform to a level that got them to the Champions League and not look out of place when there. This was done against a backdrop of their Middle Eastern owners deciding to withdraw their short-lived monetary support of the club and high-earners having to be constantly moved on. Two players who were largely responsible for the club's performances last season have also now left, Isco and Martin Demechelis. This has robbed the side of their leader in defence and their main threat in attack. The fact Isco is already looking a great signing at Real Madrid is a reflection of the quality he has, a huge loss to Malaga. They have started the season with a draw and two losses and I think they may well struggle to pull clear of the the relegation spots all season, such is the reduction in quality in every level of the club. They are, however, still seemingly priced as European challengers currently.
Rayo Vallecano are renowned for their attacking approach and the entertainment value they provide because of this. They finished in eight in La Liga last season and have an outside chance at again pushing for European football I think. Their manager Paco Jemez has had a full season to get the side in his style and they may well even play better for that this season. They have started with a win and two losses, but one of those losses was to an Atletico Madrid side who look increasingly like a third power in Spanish football. They are no world beaters, but look an incredibly long price against a Malaga side way past their best.
Lay Malaga at 2.0 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
As those of you who regularly read the column will know, I really like betting on German football. This is probably because, even though it is certainly increasing in popularity and respect, there is still not much attention paid outside of the big names like Bayern and Dortmund. Sides like Mainz and Hannover who are regular participants in the Europa League and are more than capable of upsetting the big teams are overlooked when the odds are set. This weekend is a prime example of this, I think. Mainz have started the season well with three wins and a loss already putting them towards the top of the table. They have always had a very good home record and are currently two from two at home with five scored and two conceded. The fact they don't possess any obviously brilliant players also enables them to make the team the focus and keep hold of those players who perform so well for them. I'd expect them to again finish somewhere between fifth and eight in the Bundesliga.
Schalke have been the third side in the Bundesliga for the past two seasons largely because of the goals of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and young star Julian Draxler providing flair and assists. Huntelaar has probably now had his best years though and I can only see his powers fading, and he certainly wasn't as good last season as the season before that. Schalke got it together in the end, but they struggled at times. I don't see them particularly struggling come the end of the season, but it may be the end of the cycle for them as the thrid wheel. They've again not started the season great a win and a draw at home and two losses away so far. They've been hit for six in those two away matches and I think Mainz should be shorter in this one.
Back Mainz 05 at 2.75 with MarathonBet. 2 points.
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
I want to make clear that this is purely a value bet and those who don't judge purely on that may want to leave alone.
Bayern Munich have strangely overhauled this summer after establishing themselves as by far Europe's best side last season in completing a Bundesliga, Dfb Pokal and Champions League treble. Their manager Jupp Heynckes had already been announced as being replaced this season by Pep Guardiola in January and so left after a hugely successful season. Whilst Guardiola was the most in-demand coach in football when he announced his return to coaching, he has only known coaching at Barcelona where he understood the club from top to bottom and fitted in. He has already gone about changing the playing style at Bayern and I think it may take a while for this to fully work, if it does. Signing Thiago Alcantara shows he wants to put in his ball-playing deep midfielders from Barcelona and this could even be done at the expense of one of Bayern's best players, Bastian Schweinsteiger. Change isn't always a bad thing, but some of this seems totally unnecessary to me and I'm not sure Guardiola and Bayern will be a great fit.
Hannover are a very similar side to Mainz, in that they regularly appear amongst the European places and give most sides a tough game. They are a well run club where players are brought in to fit an existing system so that things don't need to change too much when they are already working well. They have so far won all three matches at home and lost their sole away match. I'm not sure they'll win this match at all, but Bayern seem incredibly short in a match against a very decent side.
Lay Bayern Munich at 1.14 on Betfair. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1830
Trabzonspor are one of the traditonal big sides in Turkey, along with the three Istanbul sides. However, in recent seasons they have steadily slipped back as they become a very mediocre side with no flair of goal threat. The main reason for this was that they built the side to supply striker Burak Yilmaz, and he delivered, but it left the side lost when he left for Galatasaray last summer. The previous flaws in the side in all areas were masked by his incredible goalscoring record and they now barely look a mid-table side. This summer has seen little done to improve that predicament. They have started the season with a tight home win and getting spanked for five goals in two away losses.
Karabukspor kicked on last season to emerge as challengers for European football and got some great results against the big sides. They kept the majority of the side together over the summer and have started the season very well. They are, in fact, the only side other than Besiktas who are still unbeaten. They have won both home matches and drawn their sole away match. They have a decent defence to build from and should have a good chance of repelling Trabzonspor.
Lay Trabzonspor at around 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1600
Two sides who I've made good money being involved with meet on Sunday. Sivasspor were a mess two years ago, but emerged last season as a much more reliable outfit. They may not score nearly as many, or be as entertaining, but they tightened up at the back and started grinding out results. It was their horrible away form last season that kept them in the lower part of the table, at home they went nine wins, five draws and three defeats. So far this season they have won their sole home match 2-0 and lost both away matches. Looks like they may well end up in a similar state as last year.
Eskisehirspor are a side who seem to always spend a good part of the season around European places before dropping away late on. They also rely on good home form to do this, but are much harder to beat away from home than Sivasspor. They were masters of the 1-0 win two seasons ago and look like they may well have reverted back to that after a less predictable first half of last season. They have started this season with a win, a draw and a loss with two goals scored and one conceded. There looks like there may well be some value in a draw to me.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Music this week comes from Drag The River with Beautiful And Damned. Bit of a soppy one to start, but a huge personal favourite of mine.
Week 1
Aston Villa v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500
Now then, Villa were very close to relegation last season and with no 'names' signed this summer the bookmakers had them down as outside bets for relegation in the odds. I personally think they have a decent shot at a top half finish if they can avoid too many injuries. I'm a big fan of their manager, Paul Lambert, and think now he has had a season to get the players used to his style of play and add a few more to the squad they should kick on. Getting rid of some players who were very unhappy and on big salaries will also lift the mood (Darren Bent, Stephen Ireland) and getting Christian Benteke to stay on for the season is huge. I have the big Belgian down as a future leading man at a Champions League club and possible star of next summer's World Cup in Brazil for Belgium now he has cemented his place as first choice striker for them too. They've had a decent start to the season and I'd expect them to be winning matches like this.
Newcastle look a side in a mess to most observers, me included. To say they over-achieved in Alan Pardew's first season in finishing fifth is a huge understatement. There's definitely some excellent players at the club, but Pardew doesn't seem to know how to utilise them at all. With intelligent footballers like Yohan Cabaye and flair like Hatem Ben Arfa they should be a threat to most sides, but Pardew has reduced them to a long ball outfit. He seems to have set them up to simply try and grind points out with Ben Arfa occasionally chucked in to mix things up with no clear instructions as to how. This might well work on rare occasions, but won't keep them out of trouble. I think they'll again get dangerously close to relegation unless something changes drastically. I don't think the odds are miles out at all, but I think there's a little bit of value left in backing Villa.
Back Aston Villa at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.
Southampton v West Ham, Sunday 1600
One side who I think are being massively over-fancied by the bookmakers currently are Southampton. The Saints have certainly made some interesting signings. The likes of Dejan Lovren and Victor Wanyama have been linked with much bigger sides and in that sense are a real coup for Southampton. However comma that doesn't necessarily mean they'll fit in or excel. The signing of Wanyama in particular seems strange, given that in Morgan Schneiderlin they already had one of the Premier Leagues best defensive midfielders of last season at the club. Considering they were a comfortably lower part of the league side last season they seem incredibly short priced to win matches at the moment. I'm still not certain that Mauricio Pochettino is going to take them anywhere fast.
West Ham are rapidly turning into exactly what everyone expects of a Sam Allardyce side. They are full of big, strong players in most positions, with the odd flair player chucked in to give them another option. This approach saw them steering well clear of relegation last season after promotion and it's easy to understand why the board are backing Allardyce. Whilst I'd be loathe to pay to watch an Allardyce side as a neutral, I'd be very happy to have him in charge of my side if I wanted some security. He'll make the team hard to beat first of all, before adding players that may well be undervalued at other clubs like Kevin Nolan or Stewart Downing. Nolan is an excellent player at chasing knock downs and second balls and has a great scoring record and Downing may never have been a £20million player for Liverpool, but could turn out to be an excellent £6million signing for West Ham. No team will get an easy match against West Ham.
Lay Southampton at 1.89 on Betfair. 2 points.
Inter Milan v Juventus, Saturday 1700
Inter Milan are very much a club in the midst of huge change at the moment. The owner, Massimo Moratti, looks likely to sell his controlling stake in the club after over two decades in charge to an Asian businessman. They also appointed ex-Napoli manager Walter Mazzari this summer after Andrea Strammacioni was relieved of his position. This could be seen as slightly unfortunate for Strammacioni after a huge injury list crippled his side at times last season, but Mazzari is a great appointment. He has improved every club he has managed and turned Napoli into serious league title contenders in three seasons. The raw materials at Inter are not bad at all and with two wins from two and no goals conceded he has hit the ground running. I think they may well represent value early on after a few seasons of underachievement. No European football should actually aid their league form too.
Juventus have emerged from their match-fixing enforced relegation to Serie B as by far the best side in Italy of the last two seasons. Whilst Antonio Conte can sometimes be a very conservative manager he can't be faulted in the amount he has improved the side. Italy was seen as on a very steep downward curve in their standing in European football before Juventus restored respect. Whilst they don't have the players to blow a good side away, no team will get past them without a hard match. They are strong throughout the side and have once again added more good players to the squad like Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack. In Paul Pogba they also probably have the best young central midfielder in world football. This being said Conte has always been happy to leave tough away matches with a draw and I think Juve are a little short to win this with that in mind.
Lay Juventus at 2.24 on Betfair. 2 points.
Napoli v Atalanta, Saturday 1945
The only side that have really challenged Juventus domination of Serie A in the last two seasons are Napoli. After a summer where Walter Mazzari was replaced by Rafa Benitez as manager and Edinson Cavani left for Paris St Germain they have started like a rocket. The money brought in by Cavani's sale was added to and Benitez has brought in Gonzalo Higuain, Jose Callejon, Pepe Reina, Raul Albiol and Dries Mertens to an already very talented squad. With two wins from two and seven goals scored, four by Marek Hamsik, they sit top of Serie A at this very early stage. Hamsik in particular looks to be benefitting from a more advanced role under Benitez and should be the key man for the side. He's always had immense talent, but finally looks like he will fulfil it. If Juventus are not focussed or firing on all cyclinders then this could well finally be Napoli's year in Serie A.
Atalanta are something of a mainstay in Serie A now. They usually have a very good home record which keeps them away from serious trouble, but nowhere near European football either. This is no bad thing for a side that spends very little money on new players at all. Last season they were beaten in eleven of nineteen matches away from home and I see little reason why this would particularly improve. They have started the season with a win at home and a loss away and will not be looking forward to this trip to a side who are currently looking very impressive.
Back Napoli at 1.4 with William Hill. 3 points.
Malaga v Rayo Vallecano, Sunday 1800
Under previous manager Manuel Pellegrini Malaga had managed to somehow perform to a level that got them to the Champions League and not look out of place when there. This was done against a backdrop of their Middle Eastern owners deciding to withdraw their short-lived monetary support of the club and high-earners having to be constantly moved on. Two players who were largely responsible for the club's performances last season have also now left, Isco and Martin Demechelis. This has robbed the side of their leader in defence and their main threat in attack. The fact Isco is already looking a great signing at Real Madrid is a reflection of the quality he has, a huge loss to Malaga. They have started the season with a draw and two losses and I think they may well struggle to pull clear of the the relegation spots all season, such is the reduction in quality in every level of the club. They are, however, still seemingly priced as European challengers currently.
Rayo Vallecano are renowned for their attacking approach and the entertainment value they provide because of this. They finished in eight in La Liga last season and have an outside chance at again pushing for European football I think. Their manager Paco Jemez has had a full season to get the side in his style and they may well even play better for that this season. They have started with a win and two losses, but one of those losses was to an Atletico Madrid side who look increasingly like a third power in Spanish football. They are no world beaters, but look an incredibly long price against a Malaga side way past their best.
Lay Malaga at 2.0 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Mainz 05 v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
As those of you who regularly read the column will know, I really like betting on German football. This is probably because, even though it is certainly increasing in popularity and respect, there is still not much attention paid outside of the big names like Bayern and Dortmund. Sides like Mainz and Hannover who are regular participants in the Europa League and are more than capable of upsetting the big teams are overlooked when the odds are set. This weekend is a prime example of this, I think. Mainz have started the season well with three wins and a loss already putting them towards the top of the table. They have always had a very good home record and are currently two from two at home with five scored and two conceded. The fact they don't possess any obviously brilliant players also enables them to make the team the focus and keep hold of those players who perform so well for them. I'd expect them to again finish somewhere between fifth and eight in the Bundesliga.
Schalke have been the third side in the Bundesliga for the past two seasons largely because of the goals of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and young star Julian Draxler providing flair and assists. Huntelaar has probably now had his best years though and I can only see his powers fading, and he certainly wasn't as good last season as the season before that. Schalke got it together in the end, but they struggled at times. I don't see them particularly struggling come the end of the season, but it may be the end of the cycle for them as the thrid wheel. They've again not started the season great a win and a draw at home and two losses away so far. They've been hit for six in those two away matches and I think Mainz should be shorter in this one.
Back Mainz 05 at 2.75 with MarathonBet. 2 points.
Bayern Munich v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
I want to make clear that this is purely a value bet and those who don't judge purely on that may want to leave alone.
Bayern Munich have strangely overhauled this summer after establishing themselves as by far Europe's best side last season in completing a Bundesliga, Dfb Pokal and Champions League treble. Their manager Jupp Heynckes had already been announced as being replaced this season by Pep Guardiola in January and so left after a hugely successful season. Whilst Guardiola was the most in-demand coach in football when he announced his return to coaching, he has only known coaching at Barcelona where he understood the club from top to bottom and fitted in. He has already gone about changing the playing style at Bayern and I think it may take a while for this to fully work, if it does. Signing Thiago Alcantara shows he wants to put in his ball-playing deep midfielders from Barcelona and this could even be done at the expense of one of Bayern's best players, Bastian Schweinsteiger. Change isn't always a bad thing, but some of this seems totally unnecessary to me and I'm not sure Guardiola and Bayern will be a great fit.
Hannover are a very similar side to Mainz, in that they regularly appear amongst the European places and give most sides a tough game. They are a well run club where players are brought in to fit an existing system so that things don't need to change too much when they are already working well. They have so far won all three matches at home and lost their sole away match. I'm not sure they'll win this match at all, but Bayern seem incredibly short in a match against a very decent side.
Lay Bayern Munich at 1.14 on Betfair. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1830
Trabzonspor are one of the traditonal big sides in Turkey, along with the three Istanbul sides. However, in recent seasons they have steadily slipped back as they become a very mediocre side with no flair of goal threat. The main reason for this was that they built the side to supply striker Burak Yilmaz, and he delivered, but it left the side lost when he left for Galatasaray last summer. The previous flaws in the side in all areas were masked by his incredible goalscoring record and they now barely look a mid-table side. This summer has seen little done to improve that predicament. They have started the season with a tight home win and getting spanked for five goals in two away losses.
Karabukspor kicked on last season to emerge as challengers for European football and got some great results against the big sides. They kept the majority of the side together over the summer and have started the season very well. They are, in fact, the only side other than Besiktas who are still unbeaten. They have won both home matches and drawn their sole away match. They have a decent defence to build from and should have a good chance of repelling Trabzonspor.
Lay Trabzonspor at around 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1600
Two sides who I've made good money being involved with meet on Sunday. Sivasspor were a mess two years ago, but emerged last season as a much more reliable outfit. They may not score nearly as many, or be as entertaining, but they tightened up at the back and started grinding out results. It was their horrible away form last season that kept them in the lower part of the table, at home they went nine wins, five draws and three defeats. So far this season they have won their sole home match 2-0 and lost both away matches. Looks like they may well end up in a similar state as last year.
Eskisehirspor are a side who seem to always spend a good part of the season around European places before dropping away late on. They also rely on good home form to do this, but are much harder to beat away from home than Sivasspor. They were masters of the 1-0 win two seasons ago and look like they may well have reverted back to that after a less predictable first half of last season. They have started this season with a win, a draw and a loss with two goals scored and one conceded. There looks like there may well be some value in a draw to me.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.
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