As I have been given a kick up the jacksie to get some bleeding midweek tips up I thought I'd rush a quick one out for tonight's matches. Quick in the sense that I'll only do 4 or 5 tips, I'll obviously have a think about what they are. I think there is some value around tonight so here we go:
Hapoel Tel Aviv v Lyon, Tonight 1945
Anyone who followed my tip of opposing Lyon on Saturday night will have been rewarded at 11/2. If they get beat tonight they may well wave au revoir to manager Claude Puel. Since his appointment their football would best be described as absolute dogshit so it'll be no great loss to the game and the fans turned on him long ago. Israeli teams don't often score a lot, but they are generally good at home as it's a fairly long trip for the opposition and the crowds can be intimidating. All this points to Claude Puel's last rites being read tonight. You can back Hapoel at a best priced 3.4 with Victor Chandler. My personal bet would be to take them draw no bet at 2.38 with the same firm as that should provide sufficient cover at appealing odds.
Rangers v Bursaspor, Tonight 1945
After predicting a landslide victory for Man Utd in the last Champions League matches against Rangers and getting burnt I'm not going to learn! I think Rangers will see this as a winnable game against a new team to Europe's premier competition. I'm going to gamble on them taking them too lightly and this would be a huge mistake. Bursa are unbeaten in their domestic league and are very tight at the back. If Rangers try and play an open match then this team could punish them over and over again. Whilst Bursa did get a sound thrashing from Valencia in matchday 1 that shouldn't put you off too much as the Scottish League is roughly equivalent to League 1 these days and Rangers best player is a toss up between Premier League rejects Kenny Miller, David Weir (now 75 I think) and Steven Davies. Depending on how confident you are Coral are a top priced 4.0 on the Bursa win and 2.75 is widely available on the draw no bet market. I'll be going on the Bursa win personally.
Valencia v Manchester United, Tonight 1945
This has got potential to be a cracking game, but for the wrong reasons for United. There defence at the moment is absolutely shocking, particularly away from home, and Jonny Evans has been doing his best to convince Sir Wrigley he is not the answer. The rumour is that Rio might start tonight, but he has had to spend the entire flight standing up so as not to aggravate his long-standing back injury. I always thought his pace was his key attribute and have never bought into him being a 'world class ball-playing defender', he's competent, but he's no Beckenbauer. Valencia have started the Spanish league well and currently sit top. They have invested well with the money received for David's Villa and Silva and have purchased Roberto Soldado and Mehmet Topal, who have particularly impressed. Topal is the sort of disciplined defensive midfielder that Arsenal or United are missing and he should negate much of United's attacking threat. When the prices were released United were fav's, but the market has now reverted to a more sensible Valencia as fav's. The price still appeals though as they can take advantage of United's weak back up and poor defence here. Bet365 are taking a stab at 2.75 and I'd take some of that.
Tottenham v Twente, Tonight 1945
This game has goals written all over it I think! Tottenham are playing Seb Bassong and Vedran Corluka at centre back and that should encourage Twente no end. Corluka might be tall, but christ he's clumsy, and Bassong is average at best with his pace covering his very poor positional sense. Twente are a fairly attacking team and I would expect them to have a go for at least the early going. I would expect them to grab a goal and Tottenham should be good for one or two themselves so I think over 2.5 is the bet here. Bet365 are biggest price at 2.0 and I'd be tempted to do it as a double with Inter Milan v Werder Bremen in the same group at 1.73 with the same firm.
Good luck to all who follow!
Wednesday, 29 September 2010
Friday, 24 September 2010
One brings two...
As promised on the Facebook yesterday I will provide you readers with a selection of tips from leagues other than the Premier League. Whilst I thoroughly enjoy selecting tips from the self-proclaimed 'Greatest, Bestest, Most Brilliant League In The Whole Wide World Ever' I think there are often some great value bets in leagues outside of the main betting spectrum.
Lower League English
The Championship
Coventry v Preston, Saturday 1500
One level below the Premier League is the free-for-all that is the Championship and my bet of the weekend! Last season under Chris Coleman Coventry really struggled and it seems that the bookies are pricing matches up with that in mind still. Whilst their style of play is a bit more, ahem, industrial, it is certainly more effective. Preston are absolute crap at the moment to be blunt, and it looks like very little of Sir Wrigley's managerial skills have rubbed off on young Darren. He did well with pots of cash in Leagues 1 and 2, but now he has a bit of a challenge on he's drowning. Coventry are a best priced 2.1 with Hills and I'm all over that.
League One
Bournemouth v Carlisle, Saturday 1500
Bournemouth may have one of the least experienced managers in the Leagues in Eddie Howe, but he is doing a hell of a job. After guiding them up from League 2 last season he has overseen a bright start at League 1 level so far. Carlisle have also made a decent start, but this is one hell of a long journey for them down to the South Coast to Dean Court to play a team that are very good at home. I think this match is a home win all day and Hills are best priced at 2.38 which I'd say is very generous of them.
German Bundesliga
Stuttgart v Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
Stuttgart had not started their season well at all before last weeks astonishing 7-0 victory against Monchengladbach. Leverkusen had also got high hopes for this season with the signing of Michael Ballack, who has since injured himself and continued to prove he's well past his best. I'm happy to follow the form here and back the Swabians to get a home win and prolong Leverkusen's misery another week. 888sport go 2.4 on that result and I'd be happy with that.
Italian Serie A
Sampdoria v Udinese, Sunday 1400
Bologna obliged with a last minute victory for me in midweek against Udine, but Antonio Di Natale was on the scoresheet and I fancy him to carry on scoring in this. Sampdoria are one of the few Serie A teams I'd pay to watch and that's mainly to see Antonio Cassano. The man is a genius and a goal threat as well as being a generally interesting footballer. Legend has it Capello once chased him around a training session as he was so annoyed at his lack of effort. Since marrying last summer though he has knuckled down and is putting the graft in to make him a brilliant player. I think this match has got goals in it, and with the general decline of defenders in Italian football I think there's some value in the over 3.5 goals here. BWin go 3.2 on over 3.5 and I'm going to chance that.
Spanish La Liga Primera
Malaga v Villarreal, Monday 2000
Both of these teams have started the season in decent goalscoring form. Malaga have gone with a 3 pronged attack and are scoring for fun, including a good 2-0 victory at Getafe in midweek. Villarreal had faded slightly in recent years, but their strikers have found their shooting boots this season like Guiseppe Rossi. Neither team is particularly strong at the back and are both happy to go for the jugular whether in front or behind and for this reason I see goals in this game. Betfred are a best priced 2.0 on over 2.5 goals and I'd be pretty confident of that coming in.
France Ligue Un
Lyon v St Etienne, Saturday 2000
This match is a derby game and one that Lyon have had the better of in recent years. Their domination of French football seems to be coming to an end though, and manager Claude Puel has them playing a brand of football many have referred to as 'utter merde'. St Etienne are a team in the ascendency currently and are in the upper reaches of the table at this early stage. They will have the backing of a vociferous home crowd desperate to beat their local rivals, and when you add that to a Lyon team low on confidence it could be enough. Many bookies are going 5.5 on the away win and I'll have a half stakes go at those odds.
Lower League English
The Championship
Coventry v Preston, Saturday 1500
One level below the Premier League is the free-for-all that is the Championship and my bet of the weekend! Last season under Chris Coleman Coventry really struggled and it seems that the bookies are pricing matches up with that in mind still. Whilst their style of play is a bit more, ahem, industrial, it is certainly more effective. Preston are absolute crap at the moment to be blunt, and it looks like very little of Sir Wrigley's managerial skills have rubbed off on young Darren. He did well with pots of cash in Leagues 1 and 2, but now he has a bit of a challenge on he's drowning. Coventry are a best priced 2.1 with Hills and I'm all over that.
League One
Bournemouth v Carlisle, Saturday 1500
Bournemouth may have one of the least experienced managers in the Leagues in Eddie Howe, but he is doing a hell of a job. After guiding them up from League 2 last season he has overseen a bright start at League 1 level so far. Carlisle have also made a decent start, but this is one hell of a long journey for them down to the South Coast to Dean Court to play a team that are very good at home. I think this match is a home win all day and Hills are best priced at 2.38 which I'd say is very generous of them.
German Bundesliga
Stuttgart v Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
Stuttgart had not started their season well at all before last weeks astonishing 7-0 victory against Monchengladbach. Leverkusen had also got high hopes for this season with the signing of Michael Ballack, who has since injured himself and continued to prove he's well past his best. I'm happy to follow the form here and back the Swabians to get a home win and prolong Leverkusen's misery another week. 888sport go 2.4 on that result and I'd be happy with that.
Italian Serie A
Sampdoria v Udinese, Sunday 1400
Bologna obliged with a last minute victory for me in midweek against Udine, but Antonio Di Natale was on the scoresheet and I fancy him to carry on scoring in this. Sampdoria are one of the few Serie A teams I'd pay to watch and that's mainly to see Antonio Cassano. The man is a genius and a goal threat as well as being a generally interesting footballer. Legend has it Capello once chased him around a training session as he was so annoyed at his lack of effort. Since marrying last summer though he has knuckled down and is putting the graft in to make him a brilliant player. I think this match has got goals in it, and with the general decline of defenders in Italian football I think there's some value in the over 3.5 goals here. BWin go 3.2 on over 3.5 and I'm going to chance that.
Spanish La Liga Primera
Malaga v Villarreal, Monday 2000
Both of these teams have started the season in decent goalscoring form. Malaga have gone with a 3 pronged attack and are scoring for fun, including a good 2-0 victory at Getafe in midweek. Villarreal had faded slightly in recent years, but their strikers have found their shooting boots this season like Guiseppe Rossi. Neither team is particularly strong at the back and are both happy to go for the jugular whether in front or behind and for this reason I see goals in this game. Betfred are a best priced 2.0 on over 2.5 goals and I'd be pretty confident of that coming in.
France Ligue Un
Lyon v St Etienne, Saturday 2000
This match is a derby game and one that Lyon have had the better of in recent years. Their domination of French football seems to be coming to an end though, and manager Claude Puel has them playing a brand of football many have referred to as 'utter merde'. St Etienne are a team in the ascendency currently and are in the upper reaches of the table at this early stage. They will have the backing of a vociferous home crowd desperate to beat their local rivals, and when you add that to a Lyon team low on confidence it could be enough. Many bookies are going 5.5 on the away win and I'll have a half stakes go at those odds.
Thursday, 23 September 2010
Can this run possibly continue!?...
As we talk my midweek tips are 5 from 5 and I'm fairly confident the Villarreal -1.0 tonight will oblige for a full house! This should go some way to making up for last weekend being the first where I lost money. With this in mind I'll be trying to make up even more by getting some Premier League tips right this weekend. Right then, less foreplay, more action, here we go!
Manchester City v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
This is the first time we will really get to see Chelsea tested and it should give us a better idea of how good they actually are. My personal opinion is that they have the best first XI, but their backup is truly horrendous. In Ross Turnbull they have the worst goalkeeper in the Premier League on the bench every week and Ancelotti must shit his pants every time Cech dives that he'll get injured. The young lads coming through look a long way from fitting in to a top 4 team too. Having said this it will be mostly their first choice starting line-up on Saturday so I've wasted your time a bit! Man City were my pre-season tip for a title tilt and I still think they might oblige, but they need to pull their preverbial socks up and fast. Eastlands has been a fortress for them in recent seasons and I think they are capable of getting something from this game. I am going to be a bit cautious and look to the draw no bet market for this one though. Man City are 2.62 at Paddy Power and I think that's the bet for me.
Arsenal v West Brom, Saturday 1500
So far this season Arsenal have given anyone not up to their standards a good hiding at home and I see no reason why this shouldn't continue. West Brom are not built to just sit back and bully someone like Arsenal and that seems the only way to avoid defeat. Roberto Di Matteo is trying to get West Brom playing 'the right way' and whilst commendable, it is incredibly stupid not to have a Plan B for games like this. Arsenal will be without RVP and Fabregas, but they should still steamroll WBA with Jack Wilshere coming into form and Marouane Chamakh looking to cement his place as the number one forward at the club. Skybet go a standout 2.25 on Arshavin to score anytime and with the lack of value in the match odds that's where I'll be punting.
Birmingham v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Birmingham lost the first of many Midlands derbies away at West Brom last weekend at that must have hurt. I wouldn't read too much into the result as derbies can throw up results like that, especially when there's only a moderate margin of difference in the sides abilities. St Andrews has been almost impenetrable in the last 2 seasons and I struggle to see an away win here when such luminaries as Liverpool and Arsenal have failed to register victories. Wigan will still go down in my opinion due to their talented but inconsistent forwards and abysmal defence. I have a rule not to bet on Wigan matches and I fancied City to beat them last week and avoided at 1.7, that's enough reason for me to back Brum in this. They aren't massive odds, with a top priced 1.83 available, but I'd be happy with that. Hills go 2.1 on Both Teams To Score and I'd advise that if match prices don't appeal.
Blackpool v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
This is a tough one to call I think. Blackburn have gained a draw away at Man City this season, and Blackpool only have one home match under their belts ending in a 2-2 draw. I'm going to have a heart over head bet on this I think. My hatred of the man who resembles a lamb shank has intensified this week with his astonishing 'I could manage Real Madrid to European glory' diatribe. What. A. Clown. Maybe he could, I doubt it hugely, but maybe. The problem lies in the fact he's an objectionable twat who's teams play the worst football the Premier League has seen and no flair player in their right mind would play under such a tool. Ian Holloway, on the other hand, is a gentleman and a legend of the game as well as being hugely likeable. On that basis alone I'll back Blackpool to win with the knowledge I'll feel brilliant if they beat Fat Sam's motley crew and I win the bet. Victor Chandler go 3.25 on the home win and that's good enough for me.
Fulham v Everton, Saturday 1500
Another one that I see promising to be a tight game. I'm sure I am not alone in thinking surely Everton will perform sooner rather than later and I'm wary of opposing them on this basis. Mark Hughes has made a good start to his Cottagers reign although with Zamora and Dembele missing we could witness the first ever Premier League match with no strikers present! As mentioned I don't see either team running away with this and I think 1 goal from either side might nick it. For that reason I'm going to look at the match handicap and go for the draw. Totesport go 4.5 on this outcome and I'm more than happy to take those odds!
Liverpool v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
I think we may see the Liverpool fans take another kick in the nuts in this fixture. Whilst I think Roy Hodgson is suffering for Rafa Benitez poor buys quite a lot, I see no reason not to make some money out of it! Having been bombed out of the cup on penalties to a Northampton side languishing in 17th in League 2 I can't be having Pool at 1.5 in this game. Darren Bent continues to prove he is the best English goalscorer in the Premier League today for me and I see him netting at least one. Steve Bruce hasn't spent wisely in general, but in Bent it almost makes up for his general crapness in the transfer market. Liverpool still have no creativity or cutting edge and I don't see them scoring more than once in this. You can get a widely available 2.75 on Sunderland and the draw on the double chance market and I think it's the only sensible thing to do.
West Ham v Tottenham, Saturday 1500
THE Big Game for Hammers fans so far is the visit of Sloppy Chops boys to the Boleyn Ground. The boys from the East End picked up their first point away at Stoke last weekend and followed up with an away victory at Sunderland in the Carling Cup. This will have the Hammers fans blowing their bubbles and hoping they'll beat those North Londoners. As good as Spurs are now this is the sort of game Redknapp must dread. He is decent at getting plenty of players in to a club, and motivating those he likes, but his tactical acumen could be written on an Oriental man's penis (they're notoriously small!). If the Hammers come out all guns blazing and get ahead then I can see Churchill coming up short again. Because of the occasion I think the Irons have got a result in them. I would take them draw no bet to be safer and at 2.62 at Paddy Power there's still plenty of money to be made.
Bolton v Manchester United, Sunday 1200
I'd love to oppose United in this match as I'm no fan of Sir Wrigley and I think they're a team in decline too. I also think Owen Coyle is building a good, solid team at Bolton with a dash of flair. Unfortunately Dimitar Berbatov is enough to put me off. With Wayne Rooney making a complete mockery of any fool who compared him to Messi when he is in reality barely playing the same sport United needed Berba to step up. And how he has! A hat-trick against Liverpool, and a brilliantly varied one at that showcased his abilities and he'll outscore Rooney with ease this season. I still see no value in quotes of 1.5 on United when Bolton could possibly force a draw so I'll be following Berba's hot streak. You can take the Bulgarian superstar to Score 2 or More Goals with 6.0 widely available.
Wolves v Aston Villa, Sunday 1400
Antoher weekend another Midlands derby! This is the biggest one in many neutrals eyes and is quite a second match for Ged Houllier in the Villa dugout. He was never an exciting manager in France or at Liverpool and I'd advise Villa fans that O'Neills industrial approach will likely continue for a long time yet. With Mick McCarthy similarly no-nonsense I don't see this being a thriller. He has built Wolves ensibly from the back forward and they are very organised with a touch of the god stuff up front in Kevin Doyle and Steven Fletcher. I think with the home support they can definitely get a win here and I would have them at slight favourites. Everyone else seems to be of the view it's Villa though! You can get 3.0 on Betfair and I'd get on that.
Newcastle v Stoke City, Sunday 1600
With me rescinding my never back a result in a Wigan game rule, I'm now going to apply it to Newcastle for this weekend. They have beaten Villa 6-0 at home and Everton 1-0 away, but failed to beat lowly Blackpool. I'm currently unsure which is the freak result so I will not be putting money on the unassuming Chris Hughtons men for the time being. Stoke, contrary to popular belief, are better away from home of late and that's not providing any great security for me. Since I really don't want to call this I'll have a half stakes poke on big Andy Carroll to bet first. He's got unbelievably crap hair, but he's a threat! The biggest is 6.0 available at BWIN and let's end the weekend on that.
Manchester City v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
This is the first time we will really get to see Chelsea tested and it should give us a better idea of how good they actually are. My personal opinion is that they have the best first XI, but their backup is truly horrendous. In Ross Turnbull they have the worst goalkeeper in the Premier League on the bench every week and Ancelotti must shit his pants every time Cech dives that he'll get injured. The young lads coming through look a long way from fitting in to a top 4 team too. Having said this it will be mostly their first choice starting line-up on Saturday so I've wasted your time a bit! Man City were my pre-season tip for a title tilt and I still think they might oblige, but they need to pull their preverbial socks up and fast. Eastlands has been a fortress for them in recent seasons and I think they are capable of getting something from this game. I am going to be a bit cautious and look to the draw no bet market for this one though. Man City are 2.62 at Paddy Power and I think that's the bet for me.
Arsenal v West Brom, Saturday 1500
So far this season Arsenal have given anyone not up to their standards a good hiding at home and I see no reason why this shouldn't continue. West Brom are not built to just sit back and bully someone like Arsenal and that seems the only way to avoid defeat. Roberto Di Matteo is trying to get West Brom playing 'the right way' and whilst commendable, it is incredibly stupid not to have a Plan B for games like this. Arsenal will be without RVP and Fabregas, but they should still steamroll WBA with Jack Wilshere coming into form and Marouane Chamakh looking to cement his place as the number one forward at the club. Skybet go a standout 2.25 on Arshavin to score anytime and with the lack of value in the match odds that's where I'll be punting.
Birmingham v Wigan, Saturday 1500
Birmingham lost the first of many Midlands derbies away at West Brom last weekend at that must have hurt. I wouldn't read too much into the result as derbies can throw up results like that, especially when there's only a moderate margin of difference in the sides abilities. St Andrews has been almost impenetrable in the last 2 seasons and I struggle to see an away win here when such luminaries as Liverpool and Arsenal have failed to register victories. Wigan will still go down in my opinion due to their talented but inconsistent forwards and abysmal defence. I have a rule not to bet on Wigan matches and I fancied City to beat them last week and avoided at 1.7, that's enough reason for me to back Brum in this. They aren't massive odds, with a top priced 1.83 available, but I'd be happy with that. Hills go 2.1 on Both Teams To Score and I'd advise that if match prices don't appeal.
Blackpool v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
This is a tough one to call I think. Blackburn have gained a draw away at Man City this season, and Blackpool only have one home match under their belts ending in a 2-2 draw. I'm going to have a heart over head bet on this I think. My hatred of the man who resembles a lamb shank has intensified this week with his astonishing 'I could manage Real Madrid to European glory' diatribe. What. A. Clown. Maybe he could, I doubt it hugely, but maybe. The problem lies in the fact he's an objectionable twat who's teams play the worst football the Premier League has seen and no flair player in their right mind would play under such a tool. Ian Holloway, on the other hand, is a gentleman and a legend of the game as well as being hugely likeable. On that basis alone I'll back Blackpool to win with the knowledge I'll feel brilliant if they beat Fat Sam's motley crew and I win the bet. Victor Chandler go 3.25 on the home win and that's good enough for me.
Fulham v Everton, Saturday 1500
Another one that I see promising to be a tight game. I'm sure I am not alone in thinking surely Everton will perform sooner rather than later and I'm wary of opposing them on this basis. Mark Hughes has made a good start to his Cottagers reign although with Zamora and Dembele missing we could witness the first ever Premier League match with no strikers present! As mentioned I don't see either team running away with this and I think 1 goal from either side might nick it. For that reason I'm going to look at the match handicap and go for the draw. Totesport go 4.5 on this outcome and I'm more than happy to take those odds!
Liverpool v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
I think we may see the Liverpool fans take another kick in the nuts in this fixture. Whilst I think Roy Hodgson is suffering for Rafa Benitez poor buys quite a lot, I see no reason not to make some money out of it! Having been bombed out of the cup on penalties to a Northampton side languishing in 17th in League 2 I can't be having Pool at 1.5 in this game. Darren Bent continues to prove he is the best English goalscorer in the Premier League today for me and I see him netting at least one. Steve Bruce hasn't spent wisely in general, but in Bent it almost makes up for his general crapness in the transfer market. Liverpool still have no creativity or cutting edge and I don't see them scoring more than once in this. You can get a widely available 2.75 on Sunderland and the draw on the double chance market and I think it's the only sensible thing to do.
West Ham v Tottenham, Saturday 1500
THE Big Game for Hammers fans so far is the visit of Sloppy Chops boys to the Boleyn Ground. The boys from the East End picked up their first point away at Stoke last weekend and followed up with an away victory at Sunderland in the Carling Cup. This will have the Hammers fans blowing their bubbles and hoping they'll beat those North Londoners. As good as Spurs are now this is the sort of game Redknapp must dread. He is decent at getting plenty of players in to a club, and motivating those he likes, but his tactical acumen could be written on an Oriental man's penis (they're notoriously small!). If the Hammers come out all guns blazing and get ahead then I can see Churchill coming up short again. Because of the occasion I think the Irons have got a result in them. I would take them draw no bet to be safer and at 2.62 at Paddy Power there's still plenty of money to be made.
Bolton v Manchester United, Sunday 1200
I'd love to oppose United in this match as I'm no fan of Sir Wrigley and I think they're a team in decline too. I also think Owen Coyle is building a good, solid team at Bolton with a dash of flair. Unfortunately Dimitar Berbatov is enough to put me off. With Wayne Rooney making a complete mockery of any fool who compared him to Messi when he is in reality barely playing the same sport United needed Berba to step up. And how he has! A hat-trick against Liverpool, and a brilliantly varied one at that showcased his abilities and he'll outscore Rooney with ease this season. I still see no value in quotes of 1.5 on United when Bolton could possibly force a draw so I'll be following Berba's hot streak. You can take the Bulgarian superstar to Score 2 or More Goals with 6.0 widely available.
Wolves v Aston Villa, Sunday 1400
Antoher weekend another Midlands derby! This is the biggest one in many neutrals eyes and is quite a second match for Ged Houllier in the Villa dugout. He was never an exciting manager in France or at Liverpool and I'd advise Villa fans that O'Neills industrial approach will likely continue for a long time yet. With Mick McCarthy similarly no-nonsense I don't see this being a thriller. He has built Wolves ensibly from the back forward and they are very organised with a touch of the god stuff up front in Kevin Doyle and Steven Fletcher. I think with the home support they can definitely get a win here and I would have them at slight favourites. Everyone else seems to be of the view it's Villa though! You can get 3.0 on Betfair and I'd get on that.
Newcastle v Stoke City, Sunday 1600
With me rescinding my never back a result in a Wigan game rule, I'm now going to apply it to Newcastle for this weekend. They have beaten Villa 6-0 at home and Everton 1-0 away, but failed to beat lowly Blackpool. I'm currently unsure which is the freak result so I will not be putting money on the unassuming Chris Hughtons men for the time being. Stoke, contrary to popular belief, are better away from home of late and that's not providing any great security for me. Since I really don't want to call this I'll have a half stakes poke on big Andy Carroll to bet first. He's got unbelievably crap hair, but he's a threat! The biggest is 6.0 available at BWIN and let's end the weekend on that.
Tuesday, 21 September 2010
A quick glance around Europe reveals...
There is a full midweek programme of games in the German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and also in Spain's Primera Liga. If I were a gambler, and by christ I am, this would be where I would be looking to chance the rent money this week. The other option is Carling Cup action here in England and with no clue as to how teams will be taking the contest before line-ups are announced I wouldn't touch it. I'll try and pick a couple of bets from each of the 3 major European Leagues and you can follow or back those depending on the level of trust you place in me!?
German Bundesliga
Mainz v FC Koln, Tuesday 1900
Mainz have been the suprise story so far at this early stage of the season. They have beaten 3 of last seasons top 6 finishers and won 2-0 away at Werder Bremen on Saturday. I'm not going to claim to know a great deal about them, but they are scoring goals and doing it home and away at the moment. Koln are, as always, hovering around mid to lower table and will probably occupy that area for the majority of the season. They will do enough to stay up, but strike me as a Blackburn style team. These factors add up to a home win for me and my money is going with Totesport at a standout 2.0.
Hannover v Werder Bremen, Tuesday 1900
As mentioned above Bremen lost at home 0-2 on Saturday on the back of a 2-2 draw at home to Spurs in the Champions League in midweek. The games are coming thick and fast for them at the moment and the injuries are piling up. Their 2 first choice centre backs will be missing for this match and their attack isn't firing at the moment, with the exception of Mighty Marko Marin. Hannover have made a good start, although they too lost 2-0 at the weekend to Schteve McClaren's Wolfsburg. I think Werder will come strong in a few weeks when players return and others have played themselves into better form, but the price on Hannover tonight makes them worth a punt in my opinion. William Hill go 3.75 on the home win and I think it's worth the risk.
Italian Serie A
Brescia v Roma, Wednesday 1945
Having mounted a late challenge for the title last season under Claudio Ranieri Roma have started this season horrendously. They were beaten 5-1 by Cagliari and conceded 2 late goals at home to lowly Bologna on Sunday to leave them without a win from 3 games. Brescia looked a decent side to me when beating Palermo at home last weekend and West Ham cast-off Allesandro Diamanti looked impressive. He looked the only man capable of providing any flair for West Ham last season when he played and I can't believe they let him return to Italy for a £5million loss after 1 season. Just goes some way to revealing what a mess that club is in. Roma are another team who have too many good players to be involved in a relegation battle, but they look a way off hitting their stride at the moment which makes Brescia look good value at 3.5 with Totesport to me.
Bologna v Udinese, Wednesday 1945
Bologna should still be on a high from their rousing comeback against Roma on Sunday and that should see them in good stead for this match. In Marco Di Vaio they have a striker who has always got goals in Serie A and adds useful experience. Udinese have been absolutely woeful and sit bottom of the table after 3 matches played. They weren't very good last season and got by with Gokhlan Inler booting people's shins in midfield and Antonio Di Natale scoring hatfuls to help them out of trouble. Inler has left to join Rafa's attempts to undo Mourinho and Mancini's good work at Inter and Di Natale hasn't hit his stride yet, or is possibly finally feleing his age? Unless he scores around 40 goals this year I can't see any escape for Udine and I think they're heading for Serie B. All this being said makes the 2.6 at Victor Chandler look unmissable to me.
Spanish La Liga Primera
Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca, Tuesday 1900
Mallorca are a team that massively over-achieved last year in finishing in the European spots in La Liga. They are completely broke and if they were a horse they'd have been shot in the head by now. This season should seen a return to a more reasonable mid table position as they haven;t moved forward at all due to the aforementioned conditions. Bilbao are always good at home, in no small part due to one of only 3 or 4 crowds in Spain that actually get behind the team. They are a hard tackling team with real class in players like Iker Muniain, Fernando Llorente and Toquero. You could have got 2.2 on this match at the weekend, but the best available now is 2.0 with Corals. It's still worth an investment at that price.
Villarreal v Deportivo, Thursday 1900
Villarreal haven't quite lived up to the heights of their appearance against Arsenal in the Champions League Semi-Final a few years ago. This season though they have started well and in their sole home game beat a decent Espanyol team 4-0. Deportivo managed to grind out no end of 1-0 victories last year and have drawn all 3 games this season so far only scoring in 1 of those. They are a fairly obdurate outfit, but I fancy Villarreal to break through more than once on Thursday and to reward those backing them with a -1.0 asian handicap at 2.2 with Bet365.
German Bundesliga
Mainz v FC Koln, Tuesday 1900
Mainz have been the suprise story so far at this early stage of the season. They have beaten 3 of last seasons top 6 finishers and won 2-0 away at Werder Bremen on Saturday. I'm not going to claim to know a great deal about them, but they are scoring goals and doing it home and away at the moment. Koln are, as always, hovering around mid to lower table and will probably occupy that area for the majority of the season. They will do enough to stay up, but strike me as a Blackburn style team. These factors add up to a home win for me and my money is going with Totesport at a standout 2.0.
Hannover v Werder Bremen, Tuesday 1900
As mentioned above Bremen lost at home 0-2 on Saturday on the back of a 2-2 draw at home to Spurs in the Champions League in midweek. The games are coming thick and fast for them at the moment and the injuries are piling up. Their 2 first choice centre backs will be missing for this match and their attack isn't firing at the moment, with the exception of Mighty Marko Marin. Hannover have made a good start, although they too lost 2-0 at the weekend to Schteve McClaren's Wolfsburg. I think Werder will come strong in a few weeks when players return and others have played themselves into better form, but the price on Hannover tonight makes them worth a punt in my opinion. William Hill go 3.75 on the home win and I think it's worth the risk.
Italian Serie A
Brescia v Roma, Wednesday 1945
Having mounted a late challenge for the title last season under Claudio Ranieri Roma have started this season horrendously. They were beaten 5-1 by Cagliari and conceded 2 late goals at home to lowly Bologna on Sunday to leave them without a win from 3 games. Brescia looked a decent side to me when beating Palermo at home last weekend and West Ham cast-off Allesandro Diamanti looked impressive. He looked the only man capable of providing any flair for West Ham last season when he played and I can't believe they let him return to Italy for a £5million loss after 1 season. Just goes some way to revealing what a mess that club is in. Roma are another team who have too many good players to be involved in a relegation battle, but they look a way off hitting their stride at the moment which makes Brescia look good value at 3.5 with Totesport to me.
Bologna v Udinese, Wednesday 1945
Bologna should still be on a high from their rousing comeback against Roma on Sunday and that should see them in good stead for this match. In Marco Di Vaio they have a striker who has always got goals in Serie A and adds useful experience. Udinese have been absolutely woeful and sit bottom of the table after 3 matches played. They weren't very good last season and got by with Gokhlan Inler booting people's shins in midfield and Antonio Di Natale scoring hatfuls to help them out of trouble. Inler has left to join Rafa's attempts to undo Mourinho and Mancini's good work at Inter and Di Natale hasn't hit his stride yet, or is possibly finally feleing his age? Unless he scores around 40 goals this year I can't see any escape for Udine and I think they're heading for Serie B. All this being said makes the 2.6 at Victor Chandler look unmissable to me.
Spanish La Liga Primera
Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca, Tuesday 1900
Mallorca are a team that massively over-achieved last year in finishing in the European spots in La Liga. They are completely broke and if they were a horse they'd have been shot in the head by now. This season should seen a return to a more reasonable mid table position as they haven;t moved forward at all due to the aforementioned conditions. Bilbao are always good at home, in no small part due to one of only 3 or 4 crowds in Spain that actually get behind the team. They are a hard tackling team with real class in players like Iker Muniain, Fernando Llorente and Toquero. You could have got 2.2 on this match at the weekend, but the best available now is 2.0 with Corals. It's still worth an investment at that price.
Villarreal v Deportivo, Thursday 1900
Villarreal haven't quite lived up to the heights of their appearance against Arsenal in the Champions League Semi-Final a few years ago. This season though they have started well and in their sole home game beat a decent Espanyol team 4-0. Deportivo managed to grind out no end of 1-0 victories last year and have drawn all 3 games this season so far only scoring in 1 of those. They are a fairly obdurate outfit, but I fancy Villarreal to break through more than once on Thursday and to reward those backing them with a -1.0 asian handicap at 2.2 with Bet365.
Monday, 20 September 2010
A quick update...
Here is a very quick run down of how my weeks tips got on this week:
Champions League
Werder Bremen v Tottenham - Backing Werder at 2.2 - lose £10.00
Man Utd v Rangers - Backing Utd -2.0 at 2.0 - lose £10.00
Lyon v Schalke - Under 2.5 at 1.9 - £9.00 profit
Real Madrid v Ajax - Madrid win to nil at 2.4 - £14.00 profit
Total £3.00 profit
Premier League
Stoke v West Ham - Backing Stoke at 2.0 - lose £10.00
Aston Villa v Bolton - Both teams to score at 1.8 - £8.00 profit
Blackburn v Fulham - Backing Fulham at 4.3 - lose £10.00
Everton v Newcastle - Everton -1.0 at 2.22 - lose £10.00
Tottenham v Wolves - Most goals in the first half at 3.25 - lose £10.00
WBA v Birmingham - Over 2.5 at 2.15 - £11.50 profit
Sunderland v Arsenal - Backing Arsenal at 1.7 - lose £10.00
Man Utd v Liverpool - Backing Utd -1.0 asian - refund
Wigan v Man City - Jo score first - lose £5.00
Chelsea v Blackpool - Chelsea score 4+ at 2.45 - £14.50 profit
Total lose £21.00
This week lose £17.00
Overall £142.50 profit
Champions League
Werder Bremen v Tottenham - Backing Werder at 2.2 - lose £10.00
Man Utd v Rangers - Backing Utd -2.0 at 2.0 - lose £10.00
Lyon v Schalke - Under 2.5 at 1.9 - £9.00 profit
Real Madrid v Ajax - Madrid win to nil at 2.4 - £14.00 profit
Total £3.00 profit
Premier League
Stoke v West Ham - Backing Stoke at 2.0 - lose £10.00
Aston Villa v Bolton - Both teams to score at 1.8 - £8.00 profit
Blackburn v Fulham - Backing Fulham at 4.3 - lose £10.00
Everton v Newcastle - Everton -1.0 at 2.22 - lose £10.00
Tottenham v Wolves - Most goals in the first half at 3.25 - lose £10.00
WBA v Birmingham - Over 2.5 at 2.15 - £11.50 profit
Sunderland v Arsenal - Backing Arsenal at 1.7 - lose £10.00
Man Utd v Liverpool - Backing Utd -1.0 asian - refund
Wigan v Man City - Jo score first - lose £5.00
Chelsea v Blackpool - Chelsea score 4+ at 2.45 - £14.50 profit
Total lose £21.00
This week lose £17.00
Overall £142.50 profit
Friday, 17 September 2010
The weekend is here again...
First of all sorry for the lateness of my blog this week. My actual job, the one that pays, has taken precedence this week. Anyway, I know most of you are stuck in the office too and get your bets on at the weekend so hopefully this wont be too late for you? So far I've done pretty well and am showing a healthy profit, as hopefully anyone who's backed my tips is too, long may it continue. I'll try and do 2 blogs today with my Premier League and then miscellaneous tips, this might not be possible though. Here are my views on the Premier League this week:
Stoke v West Ham, Saturday 1245
Until Monday night these 2 were the only teams without a point and that would have made this a fairly tough match to call with both desperate not to lose, but lacking the confidence to push for a win. As it is though, Stoke made a thrilling late comeback and beat Villa 2-1 with a last minute snatcher. To compound the misery for the Hammers manager Avram Grant and defender Tal Ben Haim are observing a Jewish holiday and will not be present. In the case of Ben Haim this can only be a good thing as he has the turning circle of a bus and makes Rik Waller look like Usain Bolt he's so slow. Much as I'd like to see the Irons grab some points it will not be in this match. Ladbrokes have still got Stoke at 2.0 and I see that being closer to 1.9 by kick-off so take it now.
Aston Villa v Bolton, Saturday 1500
Because of some hold up in France, probably another strike, they love a good strike, Gerard Houllier will still not be in charge for this match. This might not be a bad thing as he is hardly being welcomed with open arms and Kevin McDonald hasn't disgraced himself so far. He has given plenty of young players a chance, with Marc Albrighton impressing me most. As I keep saying though I think Bolton will do well under Owen Coyle and I think they have a goal in them at least in this match with Villa's previously strong defence looking vulnerable of late. Take the 1.8 at BetFred for both teams to score in this one.
Blackburn v Fulham, Saturday 1500
Big Fat Sam has been running his Big Fat Mouth this week about Arsene Wenger using the media to influence referees. This might be a reasonable point if he hadn't gathered the press round himself to put across the opposite point! What a prat. Blackburn, and Nikola Kalinic in particular have been the recipients of some right gifts this season to give them goals and their luck will run out soon I think. Mark Hughes isn't as cuddly as Woy Hodgson, but he has quietly gone about improving an already impressive Fulham side and Moussa Dmebele in particular looks a good addition. I've got a feeling that we may see one of those rarest of football sites on Saturday, a Fulham away win! Hughes isn't afraid to get his men to kick the Lamb Shank lookalike's men back and I can see this shocking them. You can pick up 4.3 on Betfair on the away win and I think it's well worth a poke.
Everton v Newcastle, Saturday 1500
Everton mounted an almost impossible last 5 minute comeback against Man Utd last week and almost snatched a win at the death. That will have felt like a win for David Moyes and his troops and that should carry over into this home match. Newcastle have started very inconsistently, beating Villa 6-0 at home and losing 2-0 at home to Blackpool giving a good idea of their unpredictability. Whilst Everton don't have any fit strikers I think Tim Cahill causes more problems than a lot of actual strikers with his amazing leap and prowess in the air. Jonny Evans was made to look like the pathetic lightweight that he is by him last week and I'd imagine the sheer girth of Steven Taylor would limit his 'leap' to around 2cm max. I think Newcastle could be in for a hiding here, and this could be the win that kickstarts Everton's stalled season. Stan James go 2.22 with a -1.0 asian handicap and that's the bet for me.
Tottenham Hotspur v Wolves, Saturday 1500
Sloppy Chops men started their maiden Champions League campaign with a creditable away point at Werder Bremen on Tuesday evening. But, they threw away a 2 goal lead and were hanging on by the end. Whilst they can undoubtebly be exciting, Redknapps tactical nous is almost non-existent. If he gets his hands on the England job, as he seems to never tire of telling his press chums he'd love, then God help England. One of my favourite managers Mick McCarthy brings his Wolves team to White Hart Lane on a good run. He doesn't have any fancy ideas about playing expansive football as he doesn't have the players to do it. They are undoubtebly a dirty bunch, the highest foul count this season backs that up, but they get the job done. And in Kevin Doyle and Steven Fletcher they possess a very good front pairing. I think Wolves could get something and wouldn't shy away from laying Spurs on Betfair at a very short 1.48. However comma I would again back the first half to have the most goals at 3.25 at BetFred.
West Brom v Birmingham, Saturday 1500
A midlands derby in this match, and whilst not the most feisty it will certainly be hotly contested. My view is that Birmingham are heading for a European spot this year or next and West Brom are heading for another spell in the Championship. Because WBA's defence is about as useless as a chocolate teapot I think this game has goals in it. I think West Brom might have enough for a goal, but I think Birmingham will definitely grab one or more too. Get on over 2.5 at BlueSquare at 2.15.
Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday 1730
This is the sort of match where Arsenal have struggled in the past. A long away trip to the North after a Champions League match in midweek. But, because they won so convincingly and because in Marouane Chamakh they have finally got a target man, I think the away win is value here. That 6-0 thumping they handed out should see the players full of confidence and Cesc Fabregas was at his imperious best (a good bet at 8/1 for Player of the Year too!). Sunderland have yet to really impress and will again be missing the moron that is Lee Cattermole. Cattermole again got himself sent off having returned from a ban and is up there as the stupidest player currently in the division, a hotly contested award if ever there was one. He averages a sending off roughly once every 25 games and frankly needs a good kicking from his manager if he does it again. Stan James go 1.7 on the away win and I'd say that's brilliant value even if its below even money.
Manchester United v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
One of the Premier Leagues biggest rivalries is the clash of Man Utd and Liverpool. Currently tied on 18 titles each it is Alex Fergusons stated aim to make Man Utd the leaders in this field. Pool are in a truly dire state at the moment, completely broke and lacking any quality barring Torres and a fading Gerrard. Joe Cole was released by Chelsea for a good reason, that being that he is no longer the 17 year old boy wonder at West Ham, he is an average 29 year old with no fixed position. If he is Liverpool's saviour then they are fast heading for mediocrity. The price on Man Utd in this match is surely because of the amount of Liverpool fans backing their team and the 'derby factor'. I don't buy any of this and see a convincing United win. Paddy Power go 2.3 on Utd with a -1.0 asian handicap and I think that's the bet for me.
Wigan v Manchester City, Sunday 1500
I think Roberto Mancini may have inadvertently stumbled on his best line-up in the away match at Slazburg last night. Jo has been much maligned, and rightly so, but in pre-season he was City-s best man at being the focal point of the attack. David Silva is a lso an excellent player, but he needs a target man to hold the ball up sometimes so he can join play. With Adebayor injured I think Jo can make the strikers position his own and then we should see the usual toys out of the pram sulking routine from 'Ade' in January and hopefully we'll see the back of the over-rated tool. Wigan are as unpredictable as ever and their matches are always a no bet on the match for me. Skybet go 7.5 on Jo scoring first and I'm going to have a half stakes stab at that.
Chelsea v Blackpool, Sunday 1600
The second live match on Sunday sees Chelsea take on Blackpool at Stamford Bridge. Blackpool have started better than most people with under 7 fingers on each hand would have predicted, but Chelsea have been truly awesome so far. Much as I'd love to say that Ian Holloway can cause an upset here, he can't. Home, away, in the Premier League or Europe Chelsea are dispatching teams at will. The best price on a Chelsea win here is 1.1 and rightly so, it's as close to a dead cert as you'll ever see in football. If you want some value or haven't got a spare ten grand to make the match prices worthwhile then the asian handicaps are the place to look. Even then you're only going to get 1.42 on Chelsea -2.0. Take Chelsea to score 4+ at 2.45 at Skybet, they probably will!
Stoke v West Ham, Saturday 1245
Until Monday night these 2 were the only teams without a point and that would have made this a fairly tough match to call with both desperate not to lose, but lacking the confidence to push for a win. As it is though, Stoke made a thrilling late comeback and beat Villa 2-1 with a last minute snatcher. To compound the misery for the Hammers manager Avram Grant and defender Tal Ben Haim are observing a Jewish holiday and will not be present. In the case of Ben Haim this can only be a good thing as he has the turning circle of a bus and makes Rik Waller look like Usain Bolt he's so slow. Much as I'd like to see the Irons grab some points it will not be in this match. Ladbrokes have still got Stoke at 2.0 and I see that being closer to 1.9 by kick-off so take it now.
Aston Villa v Bolton, Saturday 1500
Because of some hold up in France, probably another strike, they love a good strike, Gerard Houllier will still not be in charge for this match. This might not be a bad thing as he is hardly being welcomed with open arms and Kevin McDonald hasn't disgraced himself so far. He has given plenty of young players a chance, with Marc Albrighton impressing me most. As I keep saying though I think Bolton will do well under Owen Coyle and I think they have a goal in them at least in this match with Villa's previously strong defence looking vulnerable of late. Take the 1.8 at BetFred for both teams to score in this one.
Blackburn v Fulham, Saturday 1500
Big Fat Sam has been running his Big Fat Mouth this week about Arsene Wenger using the media to influence referees. This might be a reasonable point if he hadn't gathered the press round himself to put across the opposite point! What a prat. Blackburn, and Nikola Kalinic in particular have been the recipients of some right gifts this season to give them goals and their luck will run out soon I think. Mark Hughes isn't as cuddly as Woy Hodgson, but he has quietly gone about improving an already impressive Fulham side and Moussa Dmebele in particular looks a good addition. I've got a feeling that we may see one of those rarest of football sites on Saturday, a Fulham away win! Hughes isn't afraid to get his men to kick the Lamb Shank lookalike's men back and I can see this shocking them. You can pick up 4.3 on Betfair on the away win and I think it's well worth a poke.
Everton v Newcastle, Saturday 1500
Everton mounted an almost impossible last 5 minute comeback against Man Utd last week and almost snatched a win at the death. That will have felt like a win for David Moyes and his troops and that should carry over into this home match. Newcastle have started very inconsistently, beating Villa 6-0 at home and losing 2-0 at home to Blackpool giving a good idea of their unpredictability. Whilst Everton don't have any fit strikers I think Tim Cahill causes more problems than a lot of actual strikers with his amazing leap and prowess in the air. Jonny Evans was made to look like the pathetic lightweight that he is by him last week and I'd imagine the sheer girth of Steven Taylor would limit his 'leap' to around 2cm max. I think Newcastle could be in for a hiding here, and this could be the win that kickstarts Everton's stalled season. Stan James go 2.22 with a -1.0 asian handicap and that's the bet for me.
Tottenham Hotspur v Wolves, Saturday 1500
Sloppy Chops men started their maiden Champions League campaign with a creditable away point at Werder Bremen on Tuesday evening. But, they threw away a 2 goal lead and were hanging on by the end. Whilst they can undoubtebly be exciting, Redknapps tactical nous is almost non-existent. If he gets his hands on the England job, as he seems to never tire of telling his press chums he'd love, then God help England. One of my favourite managers Mick McCarthy brings his Wolves team to White Hart Lane on a good run. He doesn't have any fancy ideas about playing expansive football as he doesn't have the players to do it. They are undoubtebly a dirty bunch, the highest foul count this season backs that up, but they get the job done. And in Kevin Doyle and Steven Fletcher they possess a very good front pairing. I think Wolves could get something and wouldn't shy away from laying Spurs on Betfair at a very short 1.48. However comma I would again back the first half to have the most goals at 3.25 at BetFred.
West Brom v Birmingham, Saturday 1500
A midlands derby in this match, and whilst not the most feisty it will certainly be hotly contested. My view is that Birmingham are heading for a European spot this year or next and West Brom are heading for another spell in the Championship. Because WBA's defence is about as useless as a chocolate teapot I think this game has goals in it. I think West Brom might have enough for a goal, but I think Birmingham will definitely grab one or more too. Get on over 2.5 at BlueSquare at 2.15.
Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday 1730
This is the sort of match where Arsenal have struggled in the past. A long away trip to the North after a Champions League match in midweek. But, because they won so convincingly and because in Marouane Chamakh they have finally got a target man, I think the away win is value here. That 6-0 thumping they handed out should see the players full of confidence and Cesc Fabregas was at his imperious best (a good bet at 8/1 for Player of the Year too!). Sunderland have yet to really impress and will again be missing the moron that is Lee Cattermole. Cattermole again got himself sent off having returned from a ban and is up there as the stupidest player currently in the division, a hotly contested award if ever there was one. He averages a sending off roughly once every 25 games and frankly needs a good kicking from his manager if he does it again. Stan James go 1.7 on the away win and I'd say that's brilliant value even if its below even money.
Manchester United v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
One of the Premier Leagues biggest rivalries is the clash of Man Utd and Liverpool. Currently tied on 18 titles each it is Alex Fergusons stated aim to make Man Utd the leaders in this field. Pool are in a truly dire state at the moment, completely broke and lacking any quality barring Torres and a fading Gerrard. Joe Cole was released by Chelsea for a good reason, that being that he is no longer the 17 year old boy wonder at West Ham, he is an average 29 year old with no fixed position. If he is Liverpool's saviour then they are fast heading for mediocrity. The price on Man Utd in this match is surely because of the amount of Liverpool fans backing their team and the 'derby factor'. I don't buy any of this and see a convincing United win. Paddy Power go 2.3 on Utd with a -1.0 asian handicap and I think that's the bet for me.
Wigan v Manchester City, Sunday 1500
I think Roberto Mancini may have inadvertently stumbled on his best line-up in the away match at Slazburg last night. Jo has been much maligned, and rightly so, but in pre-season he was City-s best man at being the focal point of the attack. David Silva is a lso an excellent player, but he needs a target man to hold the ball up sometimes so he can join play. With Adebayor injured I think Jo can make the strikers position his own and then we should see the usual toys out of the pram sulking routine from 'Ade' in January and hopefully we'll see the back of the over-rated tool. Wigan are as unpredictable as ever and their matches are always a no bet on the match for me. Skybet go 7.5 on Jo scoring first and I'm going to have a half stakes stab at that.
Chelsea v Blackpool, Sunday 1600
The second live match on Sunday sees Chelsea take on Blackpool at Stamford Bridge. Blackpool have started better than most people with under 7 fingers on each hand would have predicted, but Chelsea have been truly awesome so far. Much as I'd love to say that Ian Holloway can cause an upset here, he can't. Home, away, in the Premier League or Europe Chelsea are dispatching teams at will. The best price on a Chelsea win here is 1.1 and rightly so, it's as close to a dead cert as you'll ever see in football. If you want some value or haven't got a spare ten grand to make the match prices worthwhile then the asian handicaps are the place to look. Even then you're only going to get 1.42 on Chelsea -2.0. Take Chelsea to score 4+ at 2.45 at Skybet, they probably will!
Monday, 13 September 2010
Champions League, you're havin' a laff...
Righty then, it's UEFA's 'Champions' League this fine midweek. This is clearly some sort of error somewhere on UEFA's part as I'm pretty sure there is more than 1 team from the same country on a number of occasions and they can't all be 'Champions' can they? Bloody branding nonsense. I'm only going to put up a few tips for these games as I haven't caught much Ligue 1 let alone any Ukranian or Slovakian league football so far this season so I'm not really in a position of authority on some teams! That being said here's my picks:
Werder Bremen v Tottenham Hotspur, Tuesday 1945
This is Tottenham first foray into the big boys European tournament and wouldn't we all dearly love to see them and part-time 'Ohhh Yesss@ Churchill lookalike Harry 'the boys done triffic' Redknapp fall on their collective swords. I know the Premier League is, in many morons eyes, by far the biggest and best league in the whole wide world, but this simply doesn't hold true if you take a little look at the realities. None of the worlds best foreign stars play there and the national team is hopeless and England still supplies the most players, regardless of what the Daily Mail think. All this does have a point! And it is that Werder Bremen are a frankly massive price for this game. They held Bayern Munich to a draw at the Olympiastadion on Saturday and Tottenham have lost to Wigan at home and failed to beat West Brom in their last 2 games. Add this to the fact Harry's bare bones excuse is only a matter of days away and I really can't see any result but a home win. Because of far too many English idiots backing Spurs Werder are 2.2 in many places. Back them now.
Manchester United v Rangers, Tuesday 1945
Here we see United take on a Rangers team hailing from the weakest Scottish Prem in the last 30 years. Considering it's always been absolute toilet this is saying something. United might have been pegged back to a 3-3 draw late on at Everton on Saturday, but Rangers best striker is Kenny Miller and their best defender is a 86 year old David Weir. Needless to say, they aren't as good as Everton. I think Rangers could be in for an absolute tonking here and would not hesitate to grossly handicap United expecting them to fill their boots. bet365 will give you 2.0 with a -2 handicap and I'll be having some of that, I'd advise you to do the same.
Lyon v Schalke, Tuesday 1945
Neither of these 2 teams have started their domestic campaigns particularly well. French teams are notorious for their lack of high-scoring games and Schalke's new strikeforce of Raul and Huntelaar haven't gelled yet, this is added to the fact that Huntelaar's chance coversion makes Andy Cole look efficient! For me this all adds up to 2 teams not wanting to lose their first group game and a cagey affair. I fancy under 2.5 goals with 1.9 widely available.
Real Madrid v Ajax, Wednesday 1945
This will be my last tip for this weeks games. Jose Mourinho has taken over Los Merengues this season and has so far Played 2 Won 1 Drawn 1 Scored 1 and Conceded 0, as is his trademark. Mourinho teams also never, and I mean never, lose at home. The Dutch League isn't what it was 10 years ago and Ajax are just about the best of an unremarkable bunch. Whilst Madrid's fans have already booed their team off for a perceived lack of daring-do, the 'Special One' wont care as long as they keep grinding out wins. He will be aware that the tournament Madrid value like no other is the Champions League, and he will be looking to win it for a 3rd time with a 3rd team. This all adds up to a Madrid win to nil for me. The best price is 2.4 at Paddy Power.
Werder Bremen v Tottenham Hotspur, Tuesday 1945
This is Tottenham first foray into the big boys European tournament and wouldn't we all dearly love to see them and part-time 'Ohhh Yesss@ Churchill lookalike Harry 'the boys done triffic' Redknapp fall on their collective swords. I know the Premier League is, in many morons eyes, by far the biggest and best league in the whole wide world, but this simply doesn't hold true if you take a little look at the realities. None of the worlds best foreign stars play there and the national team is hopeless and England still supplies the most players, regardless of what the Daily Mail think. All this does have a point! And it is that Werder Bremen are a frankly massive price for this game. They held Bayern Munich to a draw at the Olympiastadion on Saturday and Tottenham have lost to Wigan at home and failed to beat West Brom in their last 2 games. Add this to the fact Harry's bare bones excuse is only a matter of days away and I really can't see any result but a home win. Because of far too many English idiots backing Spurs Werder are 2.2 in many places. Back them now.
Manchester United v Rangers, Tuesday 1945
Here we see United take on a Rangers team hailing from the weakest Scottish Prem in the last 30 years. Considering it's always been absolute toilet this is saying something. United might have been pegged back to a 3-3 draw late on at Everton on Saturday, but Rangers best striker is Kenny Miller and their best defender is a 86 year old David Weir. Needless to say, they aren't as good as Everton. I think Rangers could be in for an absolute tonking here and would not hesitate to grossly handicap United expecting them to fill their boots. bet365 will give you 2.0 with a -2 handicap and I'll be having some of that, I'd advise you to do the same.
Lyon v Schalke, Tuesday 1945
Neither of these 2 teams have started their domestic campaigns particularly well. French teams are notorious for their lack of high-scoring games and Schalke's new strikeforce of Raul and Huntelaar haven't gelled yet, this is added to the fact that Huntelaar's chance coversion makes Andy Cole look efficient! For me this all adds up to 2 teams not wanting to lose their first group game and a cagey affair. I fancy under 2.5 goals with 1.9 widely available.
Real Madrid v Ajax, Wednesday 1945
This will be my last tip for this weeks games. Jose Mourinho has taken over Los Merengues this season and has so far Played 2 Won 1 Drawn 1 Scored 1 and Conceded 0, as is his trademark. Mourinho teams also never, and I mean never, lose at home. The Dutch League isn't what it was 10 years ago and Ajax are just about the best of an unremarkable bunch. Whilst Madrid's fans have already booed their team off for a perceived lack of daring-do, the 'Special One' wont care as long as they keep grinding out wins. He will be aware that the tournament Madrid value like no other is the Champions League, and he will be looking to win it for a 3rd time with a 3rd team. This all adds up to a Madrid win to nil for me. The best price is 2.4 at Paddy Power.
Another quick round-up...
Well, here we are, back at work after the weekend. Well, most of you are anyway, I have been in the office most of it due to picking a career where sport dictates my shifts. Anyway, enough of my whining, I get paid to watch sport and offer my opinions on it, I truly am a winner! Here's a quick round-up of how my tips over the weekend faired:
Premier League Tips
Everton v Man Utd - Back Man Utd at 1.9 - lose £10.00
Arsenal v Bolton - Arsenal/Arsenal at 2.37 - £13.70 profit
Fulham v Wolves - Back Fulham at 1.85 or under 2.5 at 1.8 - lose £1.50
Man City v Blackburn - Under 2.5 at 2.25 - £12.50 profit
Newcastle v Blackpool - Newcastle -1.5 - lose £10.00
West Brom v Tottenham - Highest Scoring half = first at 3.25 - £22.50 profit
West Ham v Chelsea - Back Chelsea at 1.3 or Malouda or Lampard to score - £3.00 profit
Wigan v Sunderland - Bent first goal - lose £10.00
Birmingham v Liverpool - Brum Draw no Bet - refund
Stoke v Aston Villa - Backing Stoke at 2.6 - £16.00 profit
Other Tips
Luton v Cambridge and Histon v Crawley - Half stakes on away wins - lose £10.00
Crewe v Bury - Backing Crewe at 2.4 - £14.00 profit
Cardiff v Hull - Cardiff -1 at 2.0 - £10.00 profit
Freiburg v Stuttgart - Backing Freiburg at 3.5 - £25.00 profit
Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid - Backing Bilbao - lose £10.00
Total profit this week of £62.20
Total profit overall £159.50
I have included all bets in the Prem as I didn't put anyone off them. I also went half stakes on the Blue Square games as I said a smaller stakes punt on both.
Premier League Tips
Everton v Man Utd - Back Man Utd at 1.9 - lose £10.00
Arsenal v Bolton - Arsenal/Arsenal at 2.37 - £13.70 profit
Fulham v Wolves - Back Fulham at 1.85 or under 2.5 at 1.8 - lose £1.50
Man City v Blackburn - Under 2.5 at 2.25 - £12.50 profit
Newcastle v Blackpool - Newcastle -1.5 - lose £10.00
West Brom v Tottenham - Highest Scoring half = first at 3.25 - £22.50 profit
West Ham v Chelsea - Back Chelsea at 1.3 or Malouda or Lampard to score - £3.00 profit
Wigan v Sunderland - Bent first goal - lose £10.00
Birmingham v Liverpool - Brum Draw no Bet - refund
Stoke v Aston Villa - Backing Stoke at 2.6 - £16.00 profit
Other Tips
Luton v Cambridge and Histon v Crawley - Half stakes on away wins - lose £10.00
Crewe v Bury - Backing Crewe at 2.4 - £14.00 profit
Cardiff v Hull - Cardiff -1 at 2.0 - £10.00 profit
Freiburg v Stuttgart - Backing Freiburg at 3.5 - £25.00 profit
Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid - Backing Bilbao - lose £10.00
Total profit this week of £62.20
Total profit overall £159.50
I have included all bets in the Prem as I didn't put anyone off them. I also went half stakes on the Blue Square games as I said a smaller stakes punt on both.
Friday, 10 September 2010
Please Sir, I want some more...
As promised I shall put up a few more tips for this weekend from the lower leagues and around Europe. I'll be the first to admit that I'm not quite as well informed on the nuances of German fussball or Italian calcio as those native to the countries, but I still like a tickle on them occasionally as I'm sure the more committed/addicted gamblers reading do! Without any further ado...
Lower League English
The Championship
Cardiff v Hull, Saturday 1500
Right then let's start things off in God's own country Wales. Having added Craig Bellamy, truly the finest man playing pro football on these shores, Cardiff are, in my opinion, the only outstanding team in a pretty open division this year. Hull are toilet away from home. You can see where this is going can't you? Take -1.0 on the Asian Handicap market at 2.0 with Bet365.
League 2
Crewe v Bury, Saturday 1500
This is based on little more than a hunch and my belief that Crewe were underperforming in the opening 2 games and that their 7-0 win against Barnet was more representative of their quality. Bury have got off to a decent start, but I think in somewhat of a local derby Crewe should have the ability and motivation to win this. The price is what really drew me in and the best offering is 2.4 at Totesport.
Blue Square Premier
Histon v Crawley Town and
Luton v Cambridge both Saturday 1500
These are both long odds shouts, and I would only put small stakes on both of these if you're going to follow. Histon should be imploding at present having been in huge debt and with John Beck walking out as manager 3 weeks ago. However, they are grinding out the odd result and for some reason I think they might beat a high-flying Crawley side. Histon are basically a village team and Crawley have invested in players unused to the tiny, cramped conditions they will encounter. I'd have a little dabble at the 6.0 at bet365.
My second long odds poke is my team, the mighty Cambridge United away at pre-season fav's Luton Town. The U's have won their last 2 games by a combined 7-0 scoreline and whilst Luton are a better team I think they are in a small rut currently. This leaves Cambridge with a chance to sneak some points that they wouldn't normally expect to get. You can take this as the mad ramblings of a deluded fan, and it just might be! Or you can snap up Betfair's 5.4 on the away win and cross your fingers come 5 o'clock Saturday and hope for a late snatcher!
German Bundesliga
Freiburg v Stuttgart, Saturday 1430
This is another one that is more because I like the odds than because it's nailed on. Stuttgart are struggling already this season and have not adequately replaced midfield orchestrator Sami Khedira after his sale to Real Madrid. They are Played 2 Lost 2 Scored 1 Conceded 5, and this is because they are hopeless and are going to need a major sort out before things improve. Freiburg won their only away game 2-1 against Nurnberg and that's enough for me to be interested in Victor Chandler quoting 3.5 on Freiburg winning.
Spanish La Liga Primera
Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid, Saturday 2100
The late kick-off Saturday sees the perennially unpredictable (I know it doesn't work!) Atleti travel to the Basque country to take on the local boys of Bilbao. In one of the most impressive stats in world football Bilbao only play lads with links to the Basque region and have managed to compete, and even sometimes challenge, in 1 of Europe's 3 traditional 'big' leagues. I think Atleti are best positioned to pose the only possible challenge to Barca and Real Madrid, but they don't like it up em, and the Basque bruisers like dishing it out. I would have Bilbao as marginla fav's for this, so the 3.25 at Betfair should be snapped up.
Lower League English
The Championship
Cardiff v Hull, Saturday 1500
Right then let's start things off in God's own country Wales. Having added Craig Bellamy, truly the finest man playing pro football on these shores, Cardiff are, in my opinion, the only outstanding team in a pretty open division this year. Hull are toilet away from home. You can see where this is going can't you? Take -1.0 on the Asian Handicap market at 2.0 with Bet365.
League 2
Crewe v Bury, Saturday 1500
This is based on little more than a hunch and my belief that Crewe were underperforming in the opening 2 games and that their 7-0 win against Barnet was more representative of their quality. Bury have got off to a decent start, but I think in somewhat of a local derby Crewe should have the ability and motivation to win this. The price is what really drew me in and the best offering is 2.4 at Totesport.
Blue Square Premier
Histon v Crawley Town and
Luton v Cambridge both Saturday 1500
These are both long odds shouts, and I would only put small stakes on both of these if you're going to follow. Histon should be imploding at present having been in huge debt and with John Beck walking out as manager 3 weeks ago. However, they are grinding out the odd result and for some reason I think they might beat a high-flying Crawley side. Histon are basically a village team and Crawley have invested in players unused to the tiny, cramped conditions they will encounter. I'd have a little dabble at the 6.0 at bet365.
My second long odds poke is my team, the mighty Cambridge United away at pre-season fav's Luton Town. The U's have won their last 2 games by a combined 7-0 scoreline and whilst Luton are a better team I think they are in a small rut currently. This leaves Cambridge with a chance to sneak some points that they wouldn't normally expect to get. You can take this as the mad ramblings of a deluded fan, and it just might be! Or you can snap up Betfair's 5.4 on the away win and cross your fingers come 5 o'clock Saturday and hope for a late snatcher!
German Bundesliga
Freiburg v Stuttgart, Saturday 1430
This is another one that is more because I like the odds than because it's nailed on. Stuttgart are struggling already this season and have not adequately replaced midfield orchestrator Sami Khedira after his sale to Real Madrid. They are Played 2 Lost 2 Scored 1 Conceded 5, and this is because they are hopeless and are going to need a major sort out before things improve. Freiburg won their only away game 2-1 against Nurnberg and that's enough for me to be interested in Victor Chandler quoting 3.5 on Freiburg winning.
Spanish La Liga Primera
Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid, Saturday 2100
The late kick-off Saturday sees the perennially unpredictable (I know it doesn't work!) Atleti travel to the Basque country to take on the local boys of Bilbao. In one of the most impressive stats in world football Bilbao only play lads with links to the Basque region and have managed to compete, and even sometimes challenge, in 1 of Europe's 3 traditional 'big' leagues. I think Atleti are best positioned to pose the only possible challenge to Barca and Real Madrid, but they don't like it up em, and the Basque bruisers like dishing it out. I would have Bilbao as marginla fav's for this, so the 3.25 at Betfair should be snapped up.
Thursday, 9 September 2010
The 'real' football is back...
Well, that was an interesting week of football wasn't it? No? You're probably right. Internationals have now lost all their shine, and it is because of these pointless teams like Luxembourg, Andorra and the like that are ruining it. Just because they are a country really shouldn't mean that a rag-tag collection of butchers, bakers and used car salesmen can compete with professionals. It's all very nice and all that, but it's a waste of everyone's time, and means slim pickings in terms of gambling outside of acca's. Put them all in their own qualifying tournament and let the winner enter into a group with the pro's for a sound hiding. At least they would have some competitive games in the qualifying tournament, Andorra haven't won in years, what's the point?
Anyway...enough of that! This weekend sees the return of professional club football and the gambling that inevitably comes with it. I will put up my Premier League tips as is now de rigeur, and I will try and put out a smaller blog with 5-10 tips from lower leagues and around Europe. I am now up to a truly massive 4 followers and would greatly appreciate regular readers adding to that number.
Let's begin with those Prem games:
Everton v Manchester United, Saturday 1245
Normally I'm not an away backer, and rarely do I see Man Utd at a price that truly appeals, but this weekend is one of those times. Everton have started off the season in shocking fashion and United have been grinding out results, as is their want. Reports this morning suggest Everton will be going with a novel 4-6-0 formation as they have no fit strikers, Cahill and part-time Screech lookalike Fellaini will be asked to push on and provide the attacking threat. United will be welcoming back a Wayne Rooney who looks like a weight has been lifted thanks to the hooker revelations now being in the public domain. Although paying a reported 200sheets for 20 fags should be the more shameful act, in my opinion. William Hill are currently 1.9 and that will be more like 1.8 come kick-off so I'd get on now. It's a steal!
Arsenal v Bolton, Saturday 1500
Arsenal have struggled in the past against Bolton and are missing both Theo Walcott and RVP for around 6 weeks now. With Nicklas Bendtner also injured that leaves Marouane Chamakh to stake a claim for being the focal point of the attack in the coming weeks. Bolton are not the 'up and at em' merchants they were under Big Fat Sam and Gary 'Boring' Megson and Owen Coyle harbours ambitions of making them attractive as a team. This is laudible, and I think he's made some good signings to do this. But, and it's a James Beattie size but, this approach will be playing into Arsenal's hands. The prices of around 1.25 on a home win are a bit prohibitive for me so I'd look elsewhere for a bit more value. William Hill are again a large price on the Arsenal/Arsenal in the HT/FT market, I'd take a bit of that at 2.37 currently.
Fulham v Wolves, Saturday 1500
Now this is a difficult one to call! Although with Wolves possibly missing Steven Fletcher and Kevin Doyle I would back Fulham at 1.85 with Victor Chandler if the team news on the day confirms this. Fulham have started the Mark Hughes era with some fairly steady results and he is a manager who believes in building from the back. Mich McCarthy is a man of similar beliefs, even more so away from home. If you want to bet now then I'd get on under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with bet365. If you can bare to wait though I'd see whether Fletcher and Doyle have made it to start.
Manchester City v Blackburn Rovers. Saturday 1500
The bookies are now pricing City's home games like they are members of the Sky 4 with this match seeing them a biggest price 1.38. I like the cut of their gib, but I can't be backing them at that price. Mario Balotelli is out for around 6 weeks it has been established today, and this limits City's attacking options to the elephant washers son or possibly the most over-priced striker in history Roque Santa Cruz. The word lethargic could have been invented with this pair in mind and it's enough for me not to back City. I will be backing Blackburn at home regularly this season, but Eastlands has been good to City so I can't back them either. I have seen a stat that says City have had the least shots at goal of any Prem team this season though and I think Fergie-s chief brown noser would settle for a draw so it's got to be under 2.5 again I think. Take the 2.25 at SkyBet for this.
Newcastle v Blackpool, Saturday 1500
Newcastle have started their Premier League return fairly well so far and I think that will continue in this match. Andy carroll might have the worst hair in history and look like a father of 12 pikey, but he causes defenders problems. And with Blackpool having a defence even my Nan would worry this could spell disaster for Ian Holloway's men. This match looks a foregone conclusion to me, if Newcastle can beat a decent Villa side 6-0, then surely they can turn the Seasiders over? I think so and I'll be handicapping Newcastle as I'm so sure! Bet 365 go 2.38 on Newcastle -1.5 and I think they'll cover that.
West Brom v Tottenham, Saturday 1500
If Tottenham fans and ol Sloppy Chops fancy themselves as sticking around in the Top 4/Champions League then they need to win games like this. Jermaine Defoe wont be available though as he injured himself whilst excelling for England midweek (a never before used phrase that). It already seems to me that they are relying on one man this season, and that ape/man is Gareth Bale. He has been superb so far this season and the amount of dangerous crosses he puts into the box make it easy for Spurs forwards. Saying that though, They got made to wear a dress and cry by Wigan at home last time out though, proving that nothing is certain. Paddy Power are sticking their necks out with a 4.0 on this match. I can't back West Brom though, mostly due to them being utter tosh. I have been following Spurs results of late with interest since I saw that they always score early on and that often the 1st half is the highest scoring. It seems to ring true so I'll take BetFred's 3.25 on that.
West Ham v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
The Hammers haven't a hope here, there's more chance of 'celebrity' fan Danny of Dyer making an oscar worthy appearance on celluloid. Saying that though I can't back Chelsea at 1.33 as I don't have the funds to make it worthwhile. If you're in the reddies then I'd suggest a 33% rate of profit for a foregone conclusion is good value. I want a bit longer odds to make it worthwhile for me and I think they can be found in the anytime goalscorer market. 'Big Fat' Frankie Lampard will return and take an absolute barracking from the home fans for the crime of moving to their rivals. I think he'll respond with a goal and celebrate by pointing skywards in the the most boring celebration since Alan Shearer hung up his boots. Victor Chandler go 2.15 on this scenario (the goal, not the celebration!) and I'd take that. The only worry is that he might not play having sat out England's impressive (funny that) victories of late. Never fear though, you'll get your money back if he never graces the Boleyn Ground. If you don't want to risk it then substitute 'Lamps' for Florent Malouda in the same market, he likes to net in thrashings, and their should be one here. He is a slightly longer 2.5 with extrabet.com.
Wigan v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
I have said mant times that I will never back a Wigan result whilst Martinez remains in charge and I wont change that here. No-one would have said with any certainty that they would get dicked by Blackpool at home and beat Spurs away in a matter of weeks, but that is exactly what happened. Darren Bent finally got off the mark for Engalnd this week and has already been first scorer twice this season. He should be on a high because of breaking his duck for England and I fancy him to notch early on here. Wigan's defence are as accomodating as Rooney's latest lady of ill repute and I would take the 6.5 on offer at Victor Chandler's for Bent first goalscorer.
Birmingham v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
This si the game last season where many began to recognise that Liverpool were in decline. They really struggled to beat McCleish's men and only a David Ngog dive for a penalty rescued them from defeat. I think Big Eck is doing a commendable job at Brum and has made them into a solid outfit with dashes of flair too. Roy Hodgson's era at Liverpool hasn't started strongly and I can see Birmingham getting something here. Pool rely far too heavily on Fernando Torres and Stevie Me and it'll cost them a lot. Ladbrokes go 2.25 on Birmingham in the draw no bet market and that looks appealing to me.
Stoke City v Aston Villa, Monday 2000
With Gerard Houlliers appointment confirmed now this will be his first game in charge of the Villa. Some Villa fans who loved Martin O'Neill have had the bare faced cheek to accuse Houllier of playing a long-ball game, like this is something that has been unseen at Villa. O'Neills Plan A seemed to be hit it long with Plan B being hit it longer. He is a hugley enjoyable pundit, and clearly an articulate man, but to hail him as some sort of modern Ferguson is pathetic. He's an average manager who is a good motivator but a poor tactician. All this being said I like Stoke and with the upheaval at Villa I reckon they might come up roses in this. Victor Chandler go 2.6 on a home win and that's where my money will be going.
More tips to follow...
Anyway...enough of that! This weekend sees the return of professional club football and the gambling that inevitably comes with it. I will put up my Premier League tips as is now de rigeur, and I will try and put out a smaller blog with 5-10 tips from lower leagues and around Europe. I am now up to a truly massive 4 followers and would greatly appreciate regular readers adding to that number.
Let's begin with those Prem games:
Everton v Manchester United, Saturday 1245
Normally I'm not an away backer, and rarely do I see Man Utd at a price that truly appeals, but this weekend is one of those times. Everton have started off the season in shocking fashion and United have been grinding out results, as is their want. Reports this morning suggest Everton will be going with a novel 4-6-0 formation as they have no fit strikers, Cahill and part-time Screech lookalike Fellaini will be asked to push on and provide the attacking threat. United will be welcoming back a Wayne Rooney who looks like a weight has been lifted thanks to the hooker revelations now being in the public domain. Although paying a reported 200sheets for 20 fags should be the more shameful act, in my opinion. William Hill are currently 1.9 and that will be more like 1.8 come kick-off so I'd get on now. It's a steal!
Arsenal v Bolton, Saturday 1500
Arsenal have struggled in the past against Bolton and are missing both Theo Walcott and RVP for around 6 weeks now. With Nicklas Bendtner also injured that leaves Marouane Chamakh to stake a claim for being the focal point of the attack in the coming weeks. Bolton are not the 'up and at em' merchants they were under Big Fat Sam and Gary 'Boring' Megson and Owen Coyle harbours ambitions of making them attractive as a team. This is laudible, and I think he's made some good signings to do this. But, and it's a James Beattie size but, this approach will be playing into Arsenal's hands. The prices of around 1.25 on a home win are a bit prohibitive for me so I'd look elsewhere for a bit more value. William Hill are again a large price on the Arsenal/Arsenal in the HT/FT market, I'd take a bit of that at 2.37 currently.
Fulham v Wolves, Saturday 1500
Now this is a difficult one to call! Although with Wolves possibly missing Steven Fletcher and Kevin Doyle I would back Fulham at 1.85 with Victor Chandler if the team news on the day confirms this. Fulham have started the Mark Hughes era with some fairly steady results and he is a manager who believes in building from the back. Mich McCarthy is a man of similar beliefs, even more so away from home. If you want to bet now then I'd get on under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with bet365. If you can bare to wait though I'd see whether Fletcher and Doyle have made it to start.
Manchester City v Blackburn Rovers. Saturday 1500
The bookies are now pricing City's home games like they are members of the Sky 4 with this match seeing them a biggest price 1.38. I like the cut of their gib, but I can't be backing them at that price. Mario Balotelli is out for around 6 weeks it has been established today, and this limits City's attacking options to the elephant washers son or possibly the most over-priced striker in history Roque Santa Cruz. The word lethargic could have been invented with this pair in mind and it's enough for me not to back City. I will be backing Blackburn at home regularly this season, but Eastlands has been good to City so I can't back them either. I have seen a stat that says City have had the least shots at goal of any Prem team this season though and I think Fergie-s chief brown noser would settle for a draw so it's got to be under 2.5 again I think. Take the 2.25 at SkyBet for this.
Newcastle v Blackpool, Saturday 1500
Newcastle have started their Premier League return fairly well so far and I think that will continue in this match. Andy carroll might have the worst hair in history and look like a father of 12 pikey, but he causes defenders problems. And with Blackpool having a defence even my Nan would worry this could spell disaster for Ian Holloway's men. This match looks a foregone conclusion to me, if Newcastle can beat a decent Villa side 6-0, then surely they can turn the Seasiders over? I think so and I'll be handicapping Newcastle as I'm so sure! Bet 365 go 2.38 on Newcastle -1.5 and I think they'll cover that.
West Brom v Tottenham, Saturday 1500
If Tottenham fans and ol Sloppy Chops fancy themselves as sticking around in the Top 4/Champions League then they need to win games like this. Jermaine Defoe wont be available though as he injured himself whilst excelling for England midweek (a never before used phrase that). It already seems to me that they are relying on one man this season, and that ape/man is Gareth Bale. He has been superb so far this season and the amount of dangerous crosses he puts into the box make it easy for Spurs forwards. Saying that though, They got made to wear a dress and cry by Wigan at home last time out though, proving that nothing is certain. Paddy Power are sticking their necks out with a 4.0 on this match. I can't back West Brom though, mostly due to them being utter tosh. I have been following Spurs results of late with interest since I saw that they always score early on and that often the 1st half is the highest scoring. It seems to ring true so I'll take BetFred's 3.25 on that.
West Ham v Chelsea, Saturday 1500
The Hammers haven't a hope here, there's more chance of 'celebrity' fan Danny of Dyer making an oscar worthy appearance on celluloid. Saying that though I can't back Chelsea at 1.33 as I don't have the funds to make it worthwhile. If you're in the reddies then I'd suggest a 33% rate of profit for a foregone conclusion is good value. I want a bit longer odds to make it worthwhile for me and I think they can be found in the anytime goalscorer market. 'Big Fat' Frankie Lampard will return and take an absolute barracking from the home fans for the crime of moving to their rivals. I think he'll respond with a goal and celebrate by pointing skywards in the the most boring celebration since Alan Shearer hung up his boots. Victor Chandler go 2.15 on this scenario (the goal, not the celebration!) and I'd take that. The only worry is that he might not play having sat out England's impressive (funny that) victories of late. Never fear though, you'll get your money back if he never graces the Boleyn Ground. If you don't want to risk it then substitute 'Lamps' for Florent Malouda in the same market, he likes to net in thrashings, and their should be one here. He is a slightly longer 2.5 with extrabet.com.
Wigan v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
I have said mant times that I will never back a Wigan result whilst Martinez remains in charge and I wont change that here. No-one would have said with any certainty that they would get dicked by Blackpool at home and beat Spurs away in a matter of weeks, but that is exactly what happened. Darren Bent finally got off the mark for Engalnd this week and has already been first scorer twice this season. He should be on a high because of breaking his duck for England and I fancy him to notch early on here. Wigan's defence are as accomodating as Rooney's latest lady of ill repute and I would take the 6.5 on offer at Victor Chandler's for Bent first goalscorer.
Birmingham v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
This si the game last season where many began to recognise that Liverpool were in decline. They really struggled to beat McCleish's men and only a David Ngog dive for a penalty rescued them from defeat. I think Big Eck is doing a commendable job at Brum and has made them into a solid outfit with dashes of flair too. Roy Hodgson's era at Liverpool hasn't started strongly and I can see Birmingham getting something here. Pool rely far too heavily on Fernando Torres and Stevie Me and it'll cost them a lot. Ladbrokes go 2.25 on Birmingham in the draw no bet market and that looks appealing to me.
Stoke City v Aston Villa, Monday 2000
With Gerard Houlliers appointment confirmed now this will be his first game in charge of the Villa. Some Villa fans who loved Martin O'Neill have had the bare faced cheek to accuse Houllier of playing a long-ball game, like this is something that has been unseen at Villa. O'Neills Plan A seemed to be hit it long with Plan B being hit it longer. He is a hugley enjoyable pundit, and clearly an articulate man, but to hail him as some sort of modern Ferguson is pathetic. He's an average manager who is a good motivator but a poor tactician. All this being said I like Stoke and with the upheaval at Villa I reckon they might come up roses in this. Victor Chandler go 2.6 on a home win and that's where my money will be going.
More tips to follow...
Sunday, 5 September 2010
Something a little different...
It's been over a week since I wrote a blog so I thought I'd put up some matches I fancy in the midweek Euro 2012 qualifiers. You lot might think they're obvious or not your thing, but I writes the blog so you'll have to lump it I'm afraid! Normal service will be resumed this weekend for the Premier League and I'll try to put out some lower league tips and some foreign league tips in 2 seperate blogs if possible. Here goes with the internationals...
Switzerland v England, Tuesday 1945
Well, well, well, here we go again. It looks like Fabio has got it right again for now and has England beating the teams worse than England. Contrary to what a lot of England's media seem to think this is no bad thing, England are somewhere between 8th and 15th in the world as far as I'm concerned and should not be expected to dish out beatings to those better than them. Rant over for now! Before seeing 'England's brave Lionhearted boys TM' dispatch Bulgaria I might have layed them in this. They were fairly impressive in spells though and I would expect them to again get the job done. Saying that though I wouldn't back them at odds on away to a very obdurate Swiss side that beat Spain not long ago. I think the bet is under 2.5 goals here, take the 23/20 at bet365 for that.
Belarus v Romania, Tuesday 1830
This isn't a reaction to them beating France as Belarus have been steadily improving over the last decade and should be respected. Romania are languishing at the moment and failed to beat Albania at home on Friday. Whilst they used to have players in major leagues all over Europe like Hagi and Popescu, Christian Chivu is their most famous export now. Anywhere in Eastern Europe is a hard test for an away team and on the back of a poor performance from Romania and with Belarus on a high from beating France in France I'd back them again. They are widely available at 6/4 and I'll be taking those odds.
Norway v Portugal, Tuesday 1930
The greasy, permatanned swine from Portugal failed to beat the greasy, permatanned swine from Cyprus on Friday and Norway picked up a useful win in Iceland after falling behind. Portugal have been on the slide since Euro 2004 I think and looked bereft of invention at the World Cup with the greasiest, cheating, whining twat in football looking out of sorts (a Mr C. Ronaldo for those wondering). He isn't even playing in these matches as he is nursing an injury. Carlos Queiroz has also been suspended from management too, leaving the whole set up in a bit of a pickle to say the least. Norway have beaten France recently as well as that trip to Iceland for a Scandinavian derby and a good win. They should be ready for this one as they have had a pretty settled team for years now and any team with 'Big' John Carew is always likely to be a threat to a bunch of hissy-fitting tarts like Portugal. With odds of over 2/1 still available on Norway I'd say this is the bet of the night! Bodog are best at 11/5 and I'd advise you have a bit of that action.
Turkey v Belgium, Tuesday 1900
This one is a long odds shot, but one I would say is worth considering. Here we have 2 teams that I think are moving in opposite directions. Turkey have moved backwards since their stunning 3rd place finish at the 2002 Japorea World Cup. They have no longer got any exceptional players and their national league is struggling too, no matter how much money is being thrown at it to try and entice new players in. Belgium on the other hand are moving forwards having been in the doldrums for a long time now, since the early 90's I'd say. Players like Eden Hazard of Lille and Roman Lukaklu of Anderlecht are being monitored by the biggest clubs in Europe and Standard Liege and Anderlecht are performing admirably in UEFA competitions too. They're a team on the up. Turkey laboured to a 3-0 win against Europe's second weakest team Kazakhstan on Friday and Belgium only lost 1-0 to Germany in Germany. Belgium have a solid defence and exciting attackers and the 5/1 at William Hill looks too big to me. I'd definitely take a smaller stakes punt on it.
That's it for now, these games tend to be short priced as there really is some horrendous teams these days. I would look to include Albania, Czech Republic and Austria in any acca's if that's your bag too.
Switzerland v England, Tuesday 1945
Well, well, well, here we go again. It looks like Fabio has got it right again for now and has England beating the teams worse than England. Contrary to what a lot of England's media seem to think this is no bad thing, England are somewhere between 8th and 15th in the world as far as I'm concerned and should not be expected to dish out beatings to those better than them. Rant over for now! Before seeing 'England's brave Lionhearted boys TM' dispatch Bulgaria I might have layed them in this. They were fairly impressive in spells though and I would expect them to again get the job done. Saying that though I wouldn't back them at odds on away to a very obdurate Swiss side that beat Spain not long ago. I think the bet is under 2.5 goals here, take the 23/20 at bet365 for that.
Belarus v Romania, Tuesday 1830
This isn't a reaction to them beating France as Belarus have been steadily improving over the last decade and should be respected. Romania are languishing at the moment and failed to beat Albania at home on Friday. Whilst they used to have players in major leagues all over Europe like Hagi and Popescu, Christian Chivu is their most famous export now. Anywhere in Eastern Europe is a hard test for an away team and on the back of a poor performance from Romania and with Belarus on a high from beating France in France I'd back them again. They are widely available at 6/4 and I'll be taking those odds.
Norway v Portugal, Tuesday 1930
The greasy, permatanned swine from Portugal failed to beat the greasy, permatanned swine from Cyprus on Friday and Norway picked up a useful win in Iceland after falling behind. Portugal have been on the slide since Euro 2004 I think and looked bereft of invention at the World Cup with the greasiest, cheating, whining twat in football looking out of sorts (a Mr C. Ronaldo for those wondering). He isn't even playing in these matches as he is nursing an injury. Carlos Queiroz has also been suspended from management too, leaving the whole set up in a bit of a pickle to say the least. Norway have beaten France recently as well as that trip to Iceland for a Scandinavian derby and a good win. They should be ready for this one as they have had a pretty settled team for years now and any team with 'Big' John Carew is always likely to be a threat to a bunch of hissy-fitting tarts like Portugal. With odds of over 2/1 still available on Norway I'd say this is the bet of the night! Bodog are best at 11/5 and I'd advise you have a bit of that action.
Turkey v Belgium, Tuesday 1900
This one is a long odds shot, but one I would say is worth considering. Here we have 2 teams that I think are moving in opposite directions. Turkey have moved backwards since their stunning 3rd place finish at the 2002 Japorea World Cup. They have no longer got any exceptional players and their national league is struggling too, no matter how much money is being thrown at it to try and entice new players in. Belgium on the other hand are moving forwards having been in the doldrums for a long time now, since the early 90's I'd say. Players like Eden Hazard of Lille and Roman Lukaklu of Anderlecht are being monitored by the biggest clubs in Europe and Standard Liege and Anderlecht are performing admirably in UEFA competitions too. They're a team on the up. Turkey laboured to a 3-0 win against Europe's second weakest team Kazakhstan on Friday and Belgium only lost 1-0 to Germany in Germany. Belgium have a solid defence and exciting attackers and the 5/1 at William Hill looks too big to me. I'd definitely take a smaller stakes punt on it.
That's it for now, these games tend to be short priced as there really is some horrendous teams these days. I would look to include Albania, Czech Republic and Austria in any acca's if that's your bag too.
Wednesday, 1 September 2010
Another quick update...
Hello avid readers! Just wanted to put an update up of this weekends tips so you don't think I'm trying to avoid the fact I'm down this week. Here we go:
Blackburn v Arsenal - Backing Blackburn at 6.5 = -10.00
Blackpool v Fulham - Dembele to score at 3.25 = -10.00
Chelsea v Stoke - Malouda to score at 2.3 = +13.00
Tottenham v Wigan - Crouch to score 2+ = -10.00
Wolves v Newcastle - Both teams to score at 1.91 = +9.10
Man Utd v West Ham - Man Utd -2 at 1.72 = +7.20
Bolton v Birmingham - Backing Bolton at 2.2 = -10.00
Liverpool v West Brom - Liverpool HT/FT at 1.76 = -10.00
Sunderland v Man City - Man City at 1.9 = -10.00
Aston Villa v Everton - Backing the draw at 3.3 = -10.00
This week = -£40.70
Overall = +£97.30
Blackburn v Arsenal - Backing Blackburn at 6.5 = -10.00
Blackpool v Fulham - Dembele to score at 3.25 = -10.00
Chelsea v Stoke - Malouda to score at 2.3 = +13.00
Tottenham v Wigan - Crouch to score 2+ = -10.00
Wolves v Newcastle - Both teams to score at 1.91 = +9.10
Man Utd v West Ham - Man Utd -2 at 1.72 = +7.20
Bolton v Birmingham - Backing Bolton at 2.2 = -10.00
Liverpool v West Brom - Liverpool HT/FT at 1.76 = -10.00
Sunderland v Man City - Man City at 1.9 = -10.00
Aston Villa v Everton - Backing the draw at 3.3 = -10.00
This week = -£40.70
Overall = +£97.30
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