Last weekend made it four from four profitable weekends in a row now for everyone, and has hopefully left you all with a nice bit extra for the Xmas break. This is the last weekend for a while where all the leagues we cover are running as most barring England have a winter break before returning in the new year. Due to it being the festive period there will be a possibility that I do not have time to complete another full column so keep an eye on @TopTopTips on the Twitter for all your betting needs!
Week 18
Liverpool v Aston Villa - Win 2.58 points.
Norwich v Wigan - Win 2.6 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao - Lose 2 points.
Chievo v Roma - Win 1.94 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt - Win 1.98 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg - Lose 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor - Lose 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce - Win 2.1 points.
Total - Win 5.2 points.
Running Total - Up 12.65 points.
As it's the season, we'll listen to The Ramones with Merry Christmas (I don't want to fight tonight).
West Bromwich Albion v Norwich City, Saturday 1500
I was following West Brom after their brilliant start to the season and have since actually moved towards their opponents when betting. Steve Clarke has done an excellent job after taking over as manager at The Hawthorns in the summer, but of late the goals have dried up and his side are struggling a bit. They are not getting blown away by sides, Clarke's reputation as a master defensive coach will not be for nothing, but with all their strikers out of form they are not getting any results. They do have a small squad by Premier League standards and the fatigue that may set in as most of their players were regulars all of last season too could be the issue. They have only conceded six in eight home matches, but whilst they look so poor in front of goal it is hard to see their odds as representative.
Norwich had an awful start to the season, but are now on the longest unbeaten run in Europe's top divisions except for the might of Barcelona. Whereas Steve Clarke looked a shoe-in for manager of the season a month ago with West Brom hovering around the Champions League spots, Norwich would actually overtake their hosts in the table with a victory. Norwich's turnaround is not exactly rocket science, they have settled new players into the side and improved in every area. A leaky defence due to both centre halves being new has now turned into one of the most solid looking in the league. The midfield has looked solid with Alexander Tettey an added physical presence, Wes Hoolahan providing flair and incisiveness and Anthony Pilkington looking a danger every match from wide. Grant Holt also discovering his form of the past few seasons, if not as prolific, has also aided their recover no end.
Lay West Bromwich Albion at 2.02 on Betfair. 2 points.
Southampton v Sunderland, Saturday 1500
This match is not that different to the first pick for me, with one side's form receding as the others picks up. Neither of these sides has hit the heights of form that West Brom or Norwich have, but they have changed nevertheless. Southampton started the season looking every a inch a promoted side well out of their depth. The defence in particular looked absolutely dreadful and it was tough to see how they could avoid relegation. To the manager Nigel Adkins credit they have turned it round to the extent that they now have a fighting chance of escaping. With a truly horrendous away record this is almost exclusively down to a home record that has seen them win three and draw three of nine. This being said I still think that with the exception of Gaston Ramirez and possibly Adam Lallana they are still a side that belongs in the second tier and look very short for the win to me.
Sunderland are slowly picking up again after a terrible run once the initial effect of Martin O'Neill's appointment wore off last season. The Northern Irishman is known as a master motivator and it seemed that just his being around was getting hugely increased performances out of his players. Unfortunately my opinion is that he is tactically behind the times and limited as well as having a very closed minded approach to new signings. He plays a very defensive style of football which does help them become tough to beat, but at home it leaves the fans feeling short changed and this feeds into the players. The only major signing was Steven Fletcher in the summer and whilst he has impressed even when other have not, O'Neill's seeming refusal to scout further afield than Scotland leaves me with the impression he's missing out. All this being said, against a Southampton side that look a bit green O'Neill should fancy his sides chances of escaping with at least a point and I would agree.
Lay Southampton at 2.05 on Betfair. 2 points.
Malaga v Real Madrid, Saturday 1900
I've not layed Real Madrid often enough this season I don't think. Regular watchers have reported a severe drop off in performance levels in the league in general and particularly away from home. Mourinho all but admitted he could not guide his side to the league title this season last weekend to much disgust in the ever important local press. I would imagine the three year curse is in again and would expect him to leave as soon as Real leave the Champions League and definitely at seasons end even if they triumph. Away from home they have a record of won four, drawn one and lost three.
Malaga have surprised many observers after selling Santi Cazorla and seeing the Dubai funds dry up by staying in the hunt for Champions League qualification again as well as qualifying top of their Champions League group ahead of AC Milan and the highly fancied Zenit St Petersburg. This is to experienced manager Manuel Pellegrini's credit as he has promoted youngster Isco to the side and has seen the talented attacking midfielder repay him with numerous match winning performances. They have a home record of won five, drawn one and lost only two. They look a shade overpriced when looking at the teams respective performances.
Lay Real Madrid at 1.62 on Betfair. 2 points.
Atalanta v Udinese, Saturday 1400
This is another pick basically due to home and away form of the sides. Atalanta have been excellent at home this year and a record of won five and lost three so far. They have only scored ten goals in those matches and conceded eleven, but if you remove the strange thrashing they took by Torino at home in a 5-1 defeat then the record looks much better. They rely upon a strong defence and midfield that works very hard to help out and then an attack which takes a good percentage of the few chances created. This might not work in many other leagues, but in the notoriously defensive Serie A it is good enough for a solid mid-table finish.
Udinese look like they may finally be suffering for selling off their best players every summer and relying on the goals of ageing hitman Antonion Di Natale. They do have a brilliant scouting network in South America and Africa which will no doubt turn out some more gems, but at present they are not as strong as they have been. They are nowhere near relegation, but the last two seasons title pushes look a long way off now. They've drawn eight matches so far this season of seventeen, with an even spread between home and away. They've only won two away however comma and have also conceded fourteen in only nine matches. I couldn't back them in this one.
Back Atalanta at 2.25 with Boylesports. 2 points.
German Bundesliga all done until January 2013.
Kasimpasa v Istanbul BB, Saturday 1300
Kasimpasa started off the season in the Super Lig brilliantly after promotion over the summer. This has now inevitably tailed off though and the more experienced sides have settled in above them. Kasimpasa went for a transfer approach which saw them buying up numerous players with top level experience in Turkey rather than trusting in the players that brought them up and you would have to say it has been a success with them comfortably in the top half of the table. Their home matches have also produced a lot of goals by the countries standards with fourteen four and ten against. They give and take on the tactics front and a record with four draws, three wins and a sole defeat doesn't quite do that justice. It just shows that their approach of scoring more than the opposition has worked, but I think they've been fortunate so far too.
Istanbul BB have upset the tactical cart in Turkey along with Mersin Idman Yurdu by having the temerity to play for wins away from home. This has only previously been the reserve of the big Istanbul clubs and has not been taken into account in some of the odds as I see it. They've not conceded as many as some away from home, but have had a tendency to let them in when sides come at them as Kasimpasa are likely too. I think they'll either be good for a goal at least themselves or have an off day and take a thrashing so I think goals is the bet here.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with William Hill. 2 points.
Trabzonspor v Galatasaray, Sunday 1700
It's two weekends in a row now that Galatasaray have huge matches. This weekend sees them travelling to a Trabzonspor side who are having a mixed season in the absence of key man Burak Yilmaz. Yilmaz departed for Gala over the summer and with him responsible for over half of the sides goals last season they have had to change tactics considerably to replace his goals. They have scored the least goals of any side in the top half of the Super Lig table to show that they have not quite worked it out yet. They do have a decent record at home so far with four wins, two draws and two defeats, but it's not enough for them to push for a European spot. The two home matches I would class as tough they have faced so far against Eskisehirspor and Bursaspor have both seen them defeated too.
Galatasaray emerged from last weeks Istanbul derby with Fenerbahce with a 2-1 win and will go into the month long winter break at the top of the Super Lig and well on course to retain their title. They have not always fared well in the derby matches either so will take great confidence from that win and would probably not have welcomed the break with a chance to push on and pull further clear. They have an away record of won four, drawn three and only lost once. There has been the odd strange result for them so far, but these should be discarded as anomolies for me, they're by far the best side in Turkey. They have every chance of beating a Trabzon side who look poorer than at any time in a number of years.
Back Galatasaray at 2.3 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Thursday, 20 December 2012
Friday, 14 December 2012
Making The Most Of It...
This weeks title refers to the fact that many leagues around Europe shut up shop over the Xmas period and therefore this column will shrink considerably when this happens. So we should strike while the irons still warm, as it were. It's been a decent recent run so let's hope this continues on into this festive period!
Week Seventeen
Swansea v Norwich - Win 2.36 points.
Man City v Man Utd - Lose 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca - Win 2.1 points.
Inter Milan v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04 - Win 3.8 points.
Monchengladbach v Mainz 05 - Win 1.8 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Total - Win 1.06 points.
Running Total - Up 7.45 points.
Music this week from a slightly more mainstream choice with The Gaslight Anthem and American Slang.
Liverpool v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Those of you that follow me on Twitter @TopTopTips will probably have noticed that I tend to see Liverpool as often underpriced by the bookmakers. By this I mean I often think the odds are far shorter than they should be. I think the reasons for this are two-fold. There is the history the club has which comes with the reputation that they are a big club and should be beating those who are traditionally much smaller and also as there will often be plenty of money on Liverpool from punters (particularly in matches at Anfield). These things add up to them being shorter than I would price them from a step back. If you look at results over the past two seasons in particular it is clear to see they have regressed well below the Manchester sides as well as Chelsea and probably the likes of Tottenham and Arsenal too, although it could be argued Arsenal are going away. This weekend they take on an Aston Villa side who look to me like they are beginning to find a system that Paul Lambert and the players agree on and are happy in. This has meant that Darren Bent has been relegated behind summer signing Christian Benteke as the Belgian offers far more to the overall team than the English goal-getter. Liverpool's defence has not always looked brilliant when up against a muscular forward and Benteke fits this description.
As mentioned, Villa look to me like they have finally turned a corner and look a lot harder to beat than at any point in the last eighteen months. Paul Lambert has gone back to basics in general and has picked players who have more physical attributes than technical, with the exception of Stephen Ireland, and gone for a relatively defensive approach. This was similar at Norwich where graft was in general valued over fancy trickery and was very successful as the players were possibly aware that they were being given a chance and had to work very hard to keep a place in both the team and the division. Villa are a hard working side now, epitomised by Benteke and Andreas Weimann in attack and complimented by the flair of Ireland being given a role. He is the only player in the side really aloud outside of a strict system and will hope to find gaps to exploit when given a chance.
Back Aston Villa +2 Handicap at 1.72 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Norwich City v Wigan Athletic, Saturday 1500
Another team that have turned their fortunes round this season are Paul Lambert's old side, Norwich. Under the new manager Chris Hughton they took a little while to settle in, but are now looking pretty solid for a mid-table finish again. A lot of their shaky start can probably be put down to a whole new centre of defence and also the lack of creativity in midfield. The pairing of new signings Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong at centre back looks one of the better in the whole Premier League lately and considering it was under £4million for the pair looks an absolute steal now. The improvement in midfield has coincided with Wes Hoolahan's reinstatement in the side. The little Irishman is a great player 'in the hole' and should probably have earned a crack at the top division before now. The current hot streak of form Anthony Pilkington is also in from wide has seen Grant Holt finding last seasons performance level again also and Norwich look very good to me. They've already beaten Manchester United and Arsenal!
Wigan have traditionally been a bogey side for me when betting. They're capable of performing very well when everything clicks, and this seems to happen when I'm against them, so consider yourselves forewarned. This season they have started as slowly as ever, interspersed with the odd impressive performance. I am not at all convinced that Roberto Martinez is the man for the club, his tendency to always go for passing out of trouble is not always the right choice at a club who are likely to be around the relegation spots on the whole. That's not to say he's not a good manager, just maybe not at the right club. He also seems to have a blind spot when it comes to defenders of any quality. He has gone to Spain again this summer to sign Adrian Lopez and Ivan Ramis and I'm not really convinced La Liga is the place to go for defenders, particularly to import to England. The slower pace of the game and reduced physicality means most who come over are shocked and don't fare well, and I think both of these signings fit that description.
Back Norwich City at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1700
This one is simply from looking at some basic pointers and acting accordingly. Mallorca have been a perfectly decent home side for a number of seasons now, and this has continued this time out. They have a record of played seven at home, won three, drawn one and lost three. For a side that seems to aspire to little more than surviving these days that is not bad at all. Athletic Bilbao have moved from a generally backable side last season to one that ought to be layed unless there's particular reason this time. The manager Marcelo Bielsa's methods are only considered effective for a short period when in day to day contact as players and this has been the case here. The Argentine is a notoriously demanding and eccentric coach and it seems many of the side are simply shattered and no longer responding to him.
Back Mallorca at 2.5 with BlueSq. 2 points.
Chievo v Roma, Sunday 1400
Chievo have had a very good home record to thank for them staying in Italy's top division for so long when many expected them to head back to the lower divisions a long time ago. They have not had mountains of money to spend or any huge gate receipts or sponsorship, they have simply relied upon good management, signings and tactics. Italy is obviously a slow, defence minded league and Chievo certainly fit that bill. They are well organised and have only conceded nine in eight home games, of which three were in a dreadful performance against a good Lazio side. They'll make most sides thoroughly earn a victory at their place.
Roma have been hit and miss so far this season as they are again restructuring under Zdenek Zeman's charge. He has a reputation he largely forged in a previous spell at the club for attacking football and having promoted Pescara last season from Serie B he has taken the reigns after last seasons underwhelming Spanish experiment. They currently lie in fifth spot but have conceded twenty six goals already to show they do not rely upon the backline to gain wins, it's more a case of 'we'll get one more than you'! I think they're very short at odds on here.
Lay Roma at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday 1430
First tip from the Bundesliga is this seasons surprise package Frankfurt travelling to recent champions Wolfsburg. Since that Bundesliga title Wolfsburg have been steadily slipping due to numerous player and manager changes, none of which have been at all successful. Whilst it is entirely natural that other larger clubs would pick off the best of the side that won the league, the speed with which it all fell apart has been quite something. Even Steve McClaren got a brief, awful reign in the hotseat. This season they currently find themselves in amongst the relegation players in fourteenth position, although they are some way clear of the bottom three. They also have a pretty poor home record so far of having won only one, drawn three and lost three. They are also struggling to score and conceding with alarming regularity too. They have the worst goal difference outside of the bottom three as we stand. Although they have only lost one of the last six they are still leaking goals and have played sides on days when their oppositions performances have not been great.
Eintracht Frankfurt were one of the promoted trio over the summer and look likely to head into the Xmas break in a European spot. They got off to a brilliant start and most would have expected them to already have reverted back to a more mixed set of results and fallen down the table, but this has not happened. They have had some awful performances, but generally they've not looked at all out of place in the top division. They've also beaten plenty of good sides so far and look a little under-valued by the bookmakers in this to me.
Lay Wolfsburg at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg, Sunday 1630
Two more sides having very mixed seasons are meeting on Sunday afternoon in Bremen. Werder currently sit in the bottom half of the table having not really sorted out their tactical approach. They seem to have reverted back to a more gung-ho style after last seasons unsuccessful attempt to try sorting out their eternally horrendous defence. All that seemed to do was stop them scoring and they were only conceding slightly less. All this being said, they have generally been backable at home. This season they have won four, drawn one and lost two in Bremen. Those two were to Bayern Munich and the impressive Bayer Leverkusen too, so no real disgrace in that at all. I'm taking a chance on them responding to last weeks thrashing and getting a good result.
Nurnberg sit one place below Werder in the table at present, but have not had anywhere near as many good performances as their opponents. With little money to spend and no real tradition to attract players they have tended to rely upon a defensive approach to their tactics and grinding out results. Strikers being the most valuable of assets has meant that bringing in a cutting edge has eluded them too. So far this season they have only scored sixteen in sixteen and only six in eight away from home. Away from home has been particularly poor with only two wins, one draw and five defeats and thirteen conceded in that time. Werder have a great chance to get back on track.
Back Werder Bremen at 1.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
This is going up a bit later than usual so sorry if this is too late for anyone. Eskisehirspor are a personal favourite side of mine in the Super Lig due to their tendency to stay with the big boys most of the season, yet be priced up like a mid-table side in general. With such low liquidity in the market and a lack of knowledge outside the Istanbul three this is no real surprise, but should allow us to make some extra profits when winning with them. They currently sit fourth in the table with a frankly brilliant home record so far. They have won four, drawn two and only lost one and scored seventeen goals in that time with eight conceded. In seasons past the against column may well have been much lower, but at the cost of any attacking threat. They look a much more rounded side now and a challenge for anyone in the division.
Bursaspor have failed to kick on from their Super Lig title of a few years back. They have attempted to sign older Turkish players returning from abroad and players like Scott Carson and Kenny Miller who have excelled, but fallen out of favour in their leagues. Probably not surprisingly this has not been a roaring success and they have had mixed results for the past two seasons and show no signs of that changing. They have become draw specialists away from home with a record of won two, drawn four and lost only one. Whilst that shows they are set up to be hard to beat away, Eskisehir have the ability to blow them away.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.37 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
This simply has to be included! The biggest game in the Super Lig season is always the Istanbul derby between perennial giants Gala and Fener. So far this season Gala have led from the beginning and barring a few slips after Champions League matches they have been pretty imperious. Whilst Fener have signed attackers for the last couple of seasons, Gala have had a more team led strategy of purchasing which has seen them have by far the better, more balanced side. At home so far they have only lost one match to Karabukspor in a strange match where they never got going at all. It definitely seems a rick in form so I'd probably discount it. It was the start of a poorer run where they were definitely focussing their attentions on the Champions League and now that is out of the way I would expect them to kick on again and xtend their lead on top of the table. Last weekends 3-1 away win at Sivasspor shows that might well be starting.
Fenerbahce have looked excellent at home in the Super Lig and Europa League this season, but have looked anything but when on their travels. They have only been beaten once away in the league, but have only won once and drawn five, many when they were lucky to escape to be honest. When you also bear in mind that of those seven trips only Eskisehirspor could be counted as a tough visit so it is far from a good set of results. They will definitely raise their game for this one, but I'm not sure it will be enough when looking at their previous results. They have the attacking quality, but with Burak Yilmaz finding his feet at Gala the defence should be very worried.
Back Galatasaray at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Week Seventeen
Swansea v Norwich - Win 2.36 points.
Man City v Man Utd - Lose 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca - Win 2.1 points.
Inter Milan v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04 - Win 3.8 points.
Monchengladbach v Mainz 05 - Win 1.8 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Total - Win 1.06 points.
Running Total - Up 7.45 points.
Music this week from a slightly more mainstream choice with The Gaslight Anthem and American Slang.
Liverpool v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Those of you that follow me on Twitter @TopTopTips will probably have noticed that I tend to see Liverpool as often underpriced by the bookmakers. By this I mean I often think the odds are far shorter than they should be. I think the reasons for this are two-fold. There is the history the club has which comes with the reputation that they are a big club and should be beating those who are traditionally much smaller and also as there will often be plenty of money on Liverpool from punters (particularly in matches at Anfield). These things add up to them being shorter than I would price them from a step back. If you look at results over the past two seasons in particular it is clear to see they have regressed well below the Manchester sides as well as Chelsea and probably the likes of Tottenham and Arsenal too, although it could be argued Arsenal are going away. This weekend they take on an Aston Villa side who look to me like they are beginning to find a system that Paul Lambert and the players agree on and are happy in. This has meant that Darren Bent has been relegated behind summer signing Christian Benteke as the Belgian offers far more to the overall team than the English goal-getter. Liverpool's defence has not always looked brilliant when up against a muscular forward and Benteke fits this description.
As mentioned, Villa look to me like they have finally turned a corner and look a lot harder to beat than at any point in the last eighteen months. Paul Lambert has gone back to basics in general and has picked players who have more physical attributes than technical, with the exception of Stephen Ireland, and gone for a relatively defensive approach. This was similar at Norwich where graft was in general valued over fancy trickery and was very successful as the players were possibly aware that they were being given a chance and had to work very hard to keep a place in both the team and the division. Villa are a hard working side now, epitomised by Benteke and Andreas Weimann in attack and complimented by the flair of Ireland being given a role. He is the only player in the side really aloud outside of a strict system and will hope to find gaps to exploit when given a chance.
Back Aston Villa +2 Handicap at 1.72 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Norwich City v Wigan Athletic, Saturday 1500
Another team that have turned their fortunes round this season are Paul Lambert's old side, Norwich. Under the new manager Chris Hughton they took a little while to settle in, but are now looking pretty solid for a mid-table finish again. A lot of their shaky start can probably be put down to a whole new centre of defence and also the lack of creativity in midfield. The pairing of new signings Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong at centre back looks one of the better in the whole Premier League lately and considering it was under £4million for the pair looks an absolute steal now. The improvement in midfield has coincided with Wes Hoolahan's reinstatement in the side. The little Irishman is a great player 'in the hole' and should probably have earned a crack at the top division before now. The current hot streak of form Anthony Pilkington is also in from wide has seen Grant Holt finding last seasons performance level again also and Norwich look very good to me. They've already beaten Manchester United and Arsenal!
Wigan have traditionally been a bogey side for me when betting. They're capable of performing very well when everything clicks, and this seems to happen when I'm against them, so consider yourselves forewarned. This season they have started as slowly as ever, interspersed with the odd impressive performance. I am not at all convinced that Roberto Martinez is the man for the club, his tendency to always go for passing out of trouble is not always the right choice at a club who are likely to be around the relegation spots on the whole. That's not to say he's not a good manager, just maybe not at the right club. He also seems to have a blind spot when it comes to defenders of any quality. He has gone to Spain again this summer to sign Adrian Lopez and Ivan Ramis and I'm not really convinced La Liga is the place to go for defenders, particularly to import to England. The slower pace of the game and reduced physicality means most who come over are shocked and don't fare well, and I think both of these signings fit that description.
Back Norwich City at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1700
This one is simply from looking at some basic pointers and acting accordingly. Mallorca have been a perfectly decent home side for a number of seasons now, and this has continued this time out. They have a record of played seven at home, won three, drawn one and lost three. For a side that seems to aspire to little more than surviving these days that is not bad at all. Athletic Bilbao have moved from a generally backable side last season to one that ought to be layed unless there's particular reason this time. The manager Marcelo Bielsa's methods are only considered effective for a short period when in day to day contact as players and this has been the case here. The Argentine is a notoriously demanding and eccentric coach and it seems many of the side are simply shattered and no longer responding to him.
Back Mallorca at 2.5 with BlueSq. 2 points.
Chievo v Roma, Sunday 1400
Chievo have had a very good home record to thank for them staying in Italy's top division for so long when many expected them to head back to the lower divisions a long time ago. They have not had mountains of money to spend or any huge gate receipts or sponsorship, they have simply relied upon good management, signings and tactics. Italy is obviously a slow, defence minded league and Chievo certainly fit that bill. They are well organised and have only conceded nine in eight home games, of which three were in a dreadful performance against a good Lazio side. They'll make most sides thoroughly earn a victory at their place.
Roma have been hit and miss so far this season as they are again restructuring under Zdenek Zeman's charge. He has a reputation he largely forged in a previous spell at the club for attacking football and having promoted Pescara last season from Serie B he has taken the reigns after last seasons underwhelming Spanish experiment. They currently lie in fifth spot but have conceded twenty six goals already to show they do not rely upon the backline to gain wins, it's more a case of 'we'll get one more than you'! I think they're very short at odds on here.
Lay Roma at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday 1430
First tip from the Bundesliga is this seasons surprise package Frankfurt travelling to recent champions Wolfsburg. Since that Bundesliga title Wolfsburg have been steadily slipping due to numerous player and manager changes, none of which have been at all successful. Whilst it is entirely natural that other larger clubs would pick off the best of the side that won the league, the speed with which it all fell apart has been quite something. Even Steve McClaren got a brief, awful reign in the hotseat. This season they currently find themselves in amongst the relegation players in fourteenth position, although they are some way clear of the bottom three. They also have a pretty poor home record so far of having won only one, drawn three and lost three. They are also struggling to score and conceding with alarming regularity too. They have the worst goal difference outside of the bottom three as we stand. Although they have only lost one of the last six they are still leaking goals and have played sides on days when their oppositions performances have not been great.
Eintracht Frankfurt were one of the promoted trio over the summer and look likely to head into the Xmas break in a European spot. They got off to a brilliant start and most would have expected them to already have reverted back to a more mixed set of results and fallen down the table, but this has not happened. They have had some awful performances, but generally they've not looked at all out of place in the top division. They've also beaten plenty of good sides so far and look a little under-valued by the bookmakers in this to me.
Lay Wolfsburg at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg, Sunday 1630
Two more sides having very mixed seasons are meeting on Sunday afternoon in Bremen. Werder currently sit in the bottom half of the table having not really sorted out their tactical approach. They seem to have reverted back to a more gung-ho style after last seasons unsuccessful attempt to try sorting out their eternally horrendous defence. All that seemed to do was stop them scoring and they were only conceding slightly less. All this being said, they have generally been backable at home. This season they have won four, drawn one and lost two in Bremen. Those two were to Bayern Munich and the impressive Bayer Leverkusen too, so no real disgrace in that at all. I'm taking a chance on them responding to last weeks thrashing and getting a good result.
Nurnberg sit one place below Werder in the table at present, but have not had anywhere near as many good performances as their opponents. With little money to spend and no real tradition to attract players they have tended to rely upon a defensive approach to their tactics and grinding out results. Strikers being the most valuable of assets has meant that bringing in a cutting edge has eluded them too. So far this season they have only scored sixteen in sixteen and only six in eight away from home. Away from home has been particularly poor with only two wins, one draw and five defeats and thirteen conceded in that time. Werder have a great chance to get back on track.
Back Werder Bremen at 1.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
This is going up a bit later than usual so sorry if this is too late for anyone. Eskisehirspor are a personal favourite side of mine in the Super Lig due to their tendency to stay with the big boys most of the season, yet be priced up like a mid-table side in general. With such low liquidity in the market and a lack of knowledge outside the Istanbul three this is no real surprise, but should allow us to make some extra profits when winning with them. They currently sit fourth in the table with a frankly brilliant home record so far. They have won four, drawn two and only lost one and scored seventeen goals in that time with eight conceded. In seasons past the against column may well have been much lower, but at the cost of any attacking threat. They look a much more rounded side now and a challenge for anyone in the division.
Bursaspor have failed to kick on from their Super Lig title of a few years back. They have attempted to sign older Turkish players returning from abroad and players like Scott Carson and Kenny Miller who have excelled, but fallen out of favour in their leagues. Probably not surprisingly this has not been a roaring success and they have had mixed results for the past two seasons and show no signs of that changing. They have become draw specialists away from home with a record of won two, drawn four and lost only one. Whilst that shows they are set up to be hard to beat away, Eskisehir have the ability to blow them away.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.37 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
This simply has to be included! The biggest game in the Super Lig season is always the Istanbul derby between perennial giants Gala and Fener. So far this season Gala have led from the beginning and barring a few slips after Champions League matches they have been pretty imperious. Whilst Fener have signed attackers for the last couple of seasons, Gala have had a more team led strategy of purchasing which has seen them have by far the better, more balanced side. At home so far they have only lost one match to Karabukspor in a strange match where they never got going at all. It definitely seems a rick in form so I'd probably discount it. It was the start of a poorer run where they were definitely focussing their attentions on the Champions League and now that is out of the way I would expect them to kick on again and xtend their lead on top of the table. Last weekends 3-1 away win at Sivasspor shows that might well be starting.
Fenerbahce have looked excellent at home in the Super Lig and Europa League this season, but have looked anything but when on their travels. They have only been beaten once away in the league, but have only won once and drawn five, many when they were lucky to escape to be honest. When you also bear in mind that of those seven trips only Eskisehirspor could be counted as a tough visit so it is far from a good set of results. They will definitely raise their game for this one, but I'm not sure it will be enough when looking at their previous results. They have the attacking quality, but with Burak Yilmaz finding his feet at Gala the defence should be very worried.
Back Galatasaray at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Thursday, 6 December 2012
Back And Raring To Go...
Last week I sadly got tremendously busy and was unable to write a full column, so my apologies for that. Until the momentous day I become paid for all this my real job has to take priority! Those that follow me on the Twitter using @TopTopTips will have made some money over the weekend though and also a small bit on the Champions League so far.
Week Fifteen
Total - Win 2.35 points.
Week Sixteen
Total - Win 2.3 points.
Running Total - Up 6.39 points.
Music this week from Above Them with Give It Up To Start Again, Leeds based band who are very good live.
Swansea v Norwich, Saturday 1500
Two of last season's promoted sides meet in Wales this weekend. Swansea are under new management with Michael Laudrup now the man in charge and attempting to build on the work Brendan Rodgers did in keeping them up last year. He has had a mixed start, as might be expected, due to some players leaving and him also wanting to bring in some players of his own to add a different element to the side. The most successful of these imports so far has been the Spaniard Michu. Touted as something of an unknown by a lot of the English-centric media, he was in fact last seasons top scoring midfielder in La Liga, but he was a bargain at £2million. He added to his burgeoning reputation last weekend by bagging a brace to beat Arsenal at the Emirates and push Swansea above the Gunners in the table too. Although that result was very good, they can be frustrated by a more tactically aware side than Arsenal as they do still like to play around, with Michu and fellow new boy Pablo Hernandes given licence to roam.
Norwich have looked every bit a tactically aware side in the last two months under new manager Chris Hughton. They some into this unbeaten in nine matches with a win over Manchester United a stand-out result for them. Since the centre back pairing of Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong have gotten used to each other they have looked a very assured duo and they repel most attacks. The tactical adjustment to see Wes Hoolahan behind Grant Holt and Anthony Pilkington able to cut in from wide has also seen a much swifter attack than under Paul Lambert. It has also seen the goals shared out a lot more with Hoolahan's set piece delivery also adding yet another dimension. I've been very impressed with Norwich of late and think they're being underestimated by the bookmakers at present.
Lay Swansea at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday 1330
I am in Manchester this weekend surrounded by my wonderful girlfriends family, who are all huge Man Utd fans! This being said, my Dad is a dyed in the wool Man City fan and I have always had a soft spot for the Blue side because of this. This leaves me bound to upset someone with this prediction, although I can assure you it is a purely betting led decision. For those who don't want to see me tipping against The Red Devils I would look away now...
Manchester City exited the Champions League this week with their bottoms well and truly spanked. My colleague at work is no admirer of Roberto Mancini to put it mildly, but I had previously defended him slightly because he had improved Mark Hughes team and won the league. I was aware of his previous poor record in European competition with Inter Milan though so I can no longer defend him from that. City were poor in every match they played and deserved to get nothing from their group. However comma in the Premier league they stand unbeaten and seem to be able to get something from every match. This, in my opinion, reflects the regression in quality in the English top flight in the past few seasons, but that's for another day. They are solid enough when Mancini doesn't tinker and certainly possess enough attacking threat to worry any side in England, United included.
Manchester United had already qualified from their Champions League group so took the decision to field a young and inexperienced side who lost at home to Cfr Cluj. This was largely a measure taken to rest key players for the Manchester derby and a chance to pull away from City in the title race. The problem with this is that they haven't looked tired to me particularly, just not good enough in some key areas to comfortably beat the very best. I always criticise their midfield, but for a reason. Michael Carrick has a purpose, but needs a far stronger partner than United currently possess. Antonio Valencia can be effective, but is a one trick pony. Anderson needs some serious fitness advice, although I still think he has talent. Nani appears to be on his way out. Ashley Young is not good enough for a top level side. They are being pulled through matches by Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie too often and this won't keep working. I don't see them being the side to halt City's unbeaten run, although I doubt they'll be blown away as City aren't playing the greatest stuff either of late.
Lay Manchester United at 2.95. 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca, Sunday 1100
Most of you will have noticed a pattern emerging somewhat in my Spanish tipping, namely that I have followed Levante for almost a year now! This is because although they have proven themselves in that time to be the most consistent side outside of the top three, they are still priced like everyone else in the betting. I don't think this is right and I'm ahppy to keep following them, particularly at home where they are exceptionally hard to beat.
Back Levante at 2.05 with Bet365.
Inter Milan v Napoli, Sunday 1945
Just the one from Italy's Serie A as ever this weekend. I've gone for possibly the biggest match though between the two potential challengers to reigning champions Juventus. Inter Milan had been in a great run after a slow start that had seen them rise to second in the table and ending Juventus's long unbeaten run in Turin with a well deserved victory. The young manager Andrea Stramaccioni should take an awful lot of credit for all this as he has proven himself well able to handle the ego's amongst the players and owners of the notoriously unstable club. Unfortunately it seems Inter have decided things were going too well and have chucked a Wesley Sneijder shaped spanner in the works. The Dutchmen has always been a prickly character, but an undoubted talent, and this has shown in his current contract negotiations. Inter desperately want him to take a pay cut and he, understandably, does not want to. This has led to various levels of management criticising him in public and has coincided with a noticeable drop in performances as the players seem distracted. With him also missing from the side Diego Milito's rejuvenation is put on hold with him receiving a much worse supply of balls.
Napoli seem able to get at the leaders of the table, but then falter at the critical moment. To credit the owner and manager though, they have come an awful long way in the past five years. A mixture of investment and the signings and tactics of manager Walter Mazzari have seen them move from a mid-table side to title challengers. And with their best talent often sold on for large profits this is no mean feat. They have so far resisted the temptation to sell star striker Edinson Cavani and I can see why. He is one of a dying breed of strikers who are in the mould of doing things themselves, most now seem to be 'forwards' who prefer to start away from goal and move in. Cavani provides a target and no lack of goals either. Napoli play a tighter game away from home, as can be seen in only five conceded in seven, and I think they can frustrate a failing Inter side.
Lay Inter Milan at 2.4 on Betfair. 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
Stuttgart had what has become a traditional very poor start to the Bundesliga season, but they have managed to turn their form around enough to be in upper mid-table now. They certainly have the talent with players like Vedad Ibisevic and Zdravko Kuzmanovic in the ranks to be making a challenge for European football. It is also to their credit that they stuck with coach Bruno Labbadia as there were certainly calls to remove him after three seasons of poor starts. He may well have taken them as far as he can though so I would expect the calls to mount again at some point. Anyway, they have won the last two matches and should be on something of a high, but with only three clean sheets all season they may well be worried about Schalke's forward line.
As mentioned Schalke have something of a fearsome forward line that is currently not firing on all cylinders and has led to some good profits for followers on here and twitter of late. They have not won in four matches now and there have been murmurings from the squad that they are shattered from a long season last time and now the same again here whilst battling and qualifying in the Champions League on top of the league program. The Xmas break cannot come soon enough for most of the squad. They still look deflated and I'll oppose them once again here.
Back Stuttgart at 2.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz 05, Sunday 1430
Another team I followed for a while last season and have been on lately are Monchengladbach. They have completely revamped their style of play in the absence of last seasons star man Marco Reus and it seems to be beginning to bear fruit. Reus has shown his quality at Dortmund already and Gladback relied heavily on him to sneak wins in matches where they simply defended and gave him the ball. This season has seen them go from 1-0 merchants to possibly the most entertaining side in a very entertaining league. The reason I've liked them recently is that they have tightened up a little at the back soon to add to a more rounded attack. They're unbeaten in three and against a side who don't enjoy their travels.
Mainz have also featured heavily in columns this season and last as they are a fairly reliable side and definitely so at home. They seem well set to feature around the European spots for the next few seasons as they don't rely on any one player, but rather a system of hard work and pressing. This means that as long as they replace players and bring in new bodies who buy into this work ethic they will give every other side a tough match. Unfortunately for them their away form is their achilles heel. They go won two, drawn two and lost four away from home so far and look much more shaky and unwilling to enforce their gameplan on their travels. They meet a side in good nick and will struggle here I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach Draw No Bet at 1.72 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1400
A mid table match up to start us off in this weeks Super Lig. Home form is often all important in some of the more minor leagues around and that is definitely the case for most of the Super Lig. Gaziantepspor are one of these sides who are kept out of danger by a good home record. This season has been no different, although a lot of that is because they throw it all in for three points instead of a draw. This has left them with no draws so far, but rather four wins and three defeats in front of their own fans. They have a healthy eleven goals for them in those matches, and remember it is a very tight division outside of the giants, and only eight conceded too. They're unbeaten in three and looking good at present.
Karabukspor celebrated a brilliant win at Galatasaray a couple of weeks ago, but that performance was very much a one off when looked at with the rest of their form. They have shifted a huge amount of goals away from home so far, eighteen in seven matches is appalling, and find themselves in a relegation scrap. It's a decent attack against a poor defence with home advantage playing well into it.
Back Gaziantepspor at 2.1 with StanJames. 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1700
This one is a bit of a punt so bear with me...
Fener have an excellent home record so far this season and part of this as I see it is due to teams turning up already beaten mentally. This sees them able to attack at will and score plenty of goals. But, this also naturally leaves them exposed at the back to any side that can be bothered to have a go. I see Istanbul BB as such a side. They, along with Mersin Idman, have bucked the home record trend in Turkey in the last six months by actually being better away from home. They attack sides thinking that they can disrupt them and go after a game knowing the home sides probably don't expect it and leave gaps. I'm not sure they'll get anything, but we should see plenty of goals regardless.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1 with William Hill. 2 points.
Week Fifteen
Total - Win 2.35 points.
Week Sixteen
Total - Win 2.3 points.
Running Total - Up 6.39 points.
Music this week from Above Them with Give It Up To Start Again, Leeds based band who are very good live.
Swansea v Norwich, Saturday 1500
Two of last season's promoted sides meet in Wales this weekend. Swansea are under new management with Michael Laudrup now the man in charge and attempting to build on the work Brendan Rodgers did in keeping them up last year. He has had a mixed start, as might be expected, due to some players leaving and him also wanting to bring in some players of his own to add a different element to the side. The most successful of these imports so far has been the Spaniard Michu. Touted as something of an unknown by a lot of the English-centric media, he was in fact last seasons top scoring midfielder in La Liga, but he was a bargain at £2million. He added to his burgeoning reputation last weekend by bagging a brace to beat Arsenal at the Emirates and push Swansea above the Gunners in the table too. Although that result was very good, they can be frustrated by a more tactically aware side than Arsenal as they do still like to play around, with Michu and fellow new boy Pablo Hernandes given licence to roam.
Norwich have looked every bit a tactically aware side in the last two months under new manager Chris Hughton. They some into this unbeaten in nine matches with a win over Manchester United a stand-out result for them. Since the centre back pairing of Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong have gotten used to each other they have looked a very assured duo and they repel most attacks. The tactical adjustment to see Wes Hoolahan behind Grant Holt and Anthony Pilkington able to cut in from wide has also seen a much swifter attack than under Paul Lambert. It has also seen the goals shared out a lot more with Hoolahan's set piece delivery also adding yet another dimension. I've been very impressed with Norwich of late and think they're being underestimated by the bookmakers at present.
Lay Swansea at 1.82 on Betfair. 2 points.
Manchester City v Manchester United, Sunday 1330
I am in Manchester this weekend surrounded by my wonderful girlfriends family, who are all huge Man Utd fans! This being said, my Dad is a dyed in the wool Man City fan and I have always had a soft spot for the Blue side because of this. This leaves me bound to upset someone with this prediction, although I can assure you it is a purely betting led decision. For those who don't want to see me tipping against The Red Devils I would look away now...
Manchester City exited the Champions League this week with their bottoms well and truly spanked. My colleague at work is no admirer of Roberto Mancini to put it mildly, but I had previously defended him slightly because he had improved Mark Hughes team and won the league. I was aware of his previous poor record in European competition with Inter Milan though so I can no longer defend him from that. City were poor in every match they played and deserved to get nothing from their group. However comma in the Premier league they stand unbeaten and seem to be able to get something from every match. This, in my opinion, reflects the regression in quality in the English top flight in the past few seasons, but that's for another day. They are solid enough when Mancini doesn't tinker and certainly possess enough attacking threat to worry any side in England, United included.
Manchester United had already qualified from their Champions League group so took the decision to field a young and inexperienced side who lost at home to Cfr Cluj. This was largely a measure taken to rest key players for the Manchester derby and a chance to pull away from City in the title race. The problem with this is that they haven't looked tired to me particularly, just not good enough in some key areas to comfortably beat the very best. I always criticise their midfield, but for a reason. Michael Carrick has a purpose, but needs a far stronger partner than United currently possess. Antonio Valencia can be effective, but is a one trick pony. Anderson needs some serious fitness advice, although I still think he has talent. Nani appears to be on his way out. Ashley Young is not good enough for a top level side. They are being pulled through matches by Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie too often and this won't keep working. I don't see them being the side to halt City's unbeaten run, although I doubt they'll be blown away as City aren't playing the greatest stuff either of late.
Lay Manchester United at 2.95. 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca, Sunday 1100
Most of you will have noticed a pattern emerging somewhat in my Spanish tipping, namely that I have followed Levante for almost a year now! This is because although they have proven themselves in that time to be the most consistent side outside of the top three, they are still priced like everyone else in the betting. I don't think this is right and I'm ahppy to keep following them, particularly at home where they are exceptionally hard to beat.
Back Levante at 2.05 with Bet365.
Inter Milan v Napoli, Sunday 1945
Just the one from Italy's Serie A as ever this weekend. I've gone for possibly the biggest match though between the two potential challengers to reigning champions Juventus. Inter Milan had been in a great run after a slow start that had seen them rise to second in the table and ending Juventus's long unbeaten run in Turin with a well deserved victory. The young manager Andrea Stramaccioni should take an awful lot of credit for all this as he has proven himself well able to handle the ego's amongst the players and owners of the notoriously unstable club. Unfortunately it seems Inter have decided things were going too well and have chucked a Wesley Sneijder shaped spanner in the works. The Dutchmen has always been a prickly character, but an undoubted talent, and this has shown in his current contract negotiations. Inter desperately want him to take a pay cut and he, understandably, does not want to. This has led to various levels of management criticising him in public and has coincided with a noticeable drop in performances as the players seem distracted. With him also missing from the side Diego Milito's rejuvenation is put on hold with him receiving a much worse supply of balls.
Napoli seem able to get at the leaders of the table, but then falter at the critical moment. To credit the owner and manager though, they have come an awful long way in the past five years. A mixture of investment and the signings and tactics of manager Walter Mazzari have seen them move from a mid-table side to title challengers. And with their best talent often sold on for large profits this is no mean feat. They have so far resisted the temptation to sell star striker Edinson Cavani and I can see why. He is one of a dying breed of strikers who are in the mould of doing things themselves, most now seem to be 'forwards' who prefer to start away from goal and move in. Cavani provides a target and no lack of goals either. Napoli play a tighter game away from home, as can be seen in only five conceded in seven, and I think they can frustrate a failing Inter side.
Lay Inter Milan at 2.4 on Betfair. 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430
Stuttgart had what has become a traditional very poor start to the Bundesliga season, but they have managed to turn their form around enough to be in upper mid-table now. They certainly have the talent with players like Vedad Ibisevic and Zdravko Kuzmanovic in the ranks to be making a challenge for European football. It is also to their credit that they stuck with coach Bruno Labbadia as there were certainly calls to remove him after three seasons of poor starts. He may well have taken them as far as he can though so I would expect the calls to mount again at some point. Anyway, they have won the last two matches and should be on something of a high, but with only three clean sheets all season they may well be worried about Schalke's forward line.
As mentioned Schalke have something of a fearsome forward line that is currently not firing on all cylinders and has led to some good profits for followers on here and twitter of late. They have not won in four matches now and there have been murmurings from the squad that they are shattered from a long season last time and now the same again here whilst battling and qualifying in the Champions League on top of the league program. The Xmas break cannot come soon enough for most of the squad. They still look deflated and I'll oppose them once again here.
Back Stuttgart at 2.9 with William Hill. 2 points.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz 05, Sunday 1430
Another team I followed for a while last season and have been on lately are Monchengladbach. They have completely revamped their style of play in the absence of last seasons star man Marco Reus and it seems to be beginning to bear fruit. Reus has shown his quality at Dortmund already and Gladback relied heavily on him to sneak wins in matches where they simply defended and gave him the ball. This season has seen them go from 1-0 merchants to possibly the most entertaining side in a very entertaining league. The reason I've liked them recently is that they have tightened up a little at the back soon to add to a more rounded attack. They're unbeaten in three and against a side who don't enjoy their travels.
Mainz have also featured heavily in columns this season and last as they are a fairly reliable side and definitely so at home. They seem well set to feature around the European spots for the next few seasons as they don't rely on any one player, but rather a system of hard work and pressing. This means that as long as they replace players and bring in new bodies who buy into this work ethic they will give every other side a tough match. Unfortunately for them their away form is their achilles heel. They go won two, drawn two and lost four away from home so far and look much more shaky and unwilling to enforce their gameplan on their travels. They meet a side in good nick and will struggle here I think.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach Draw No Bet at 1.72 with StanJames. 2.5 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1400
A mid table match up to start us off in this weeks Super Lig. Home form is often all important in some of the more minor leagues around and that is definitely the case for most of the Super Lig. Gaziantepspor are one of these sides who are kept out of danger by a good home record. This season has been no different, although a lot of that is because they throw it all in for three points instead of a draw. This has left them with no draws so far, but rather four wins and three defeats in front of their own fans. They have a healthy eleven goals for them in those matches, and remember it is a very tight division outside of the giants, and only eight conceded too. They're unbeaten in three and looking good at present.
Karabukspor celebrated a brilliant win at Galatasaray a couple of weeks ago, but that performance was very much a one off when looked at with the rest of their form. They have shifted a huge amount of goals away from home so far, eighteen in seven matches is appalling, and find themselves in a relegation scrap. It's a decent attack against a poor defence with home advantage playing well into it.
Back Gaziantepspor at 2.1 with StanJames. 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1700
This one is a bit of a punt so bear with me...
Fener have an excellent home record so far this season and part of this as I see it is due to teams turning up already beaten mentally. This sees them able to attack at will and score plenty of goals. But, this also naturally leaves them exposed at the back to any side that can be bothered to have a go. I see Istanbul BB as such a side. They, along with Mersin Idman, have bucked the home record trend in Turkey in the last six months by actually being better away from home. They attack sides thinking that they can disrupt them and go after a game knowing the home sides probably don't expect it and leave gaps. I'm not sure they'll get anything, but we should see plenty of goals regardless.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1 with William Hill. 2 points.
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