Unfortunately last weekend was the worst in a while for the blog. We started well with the German match coming in, but then only saw the Italian Double and laying Atletico Madrid come good for the rest of the weekend. With a very small loss midweek from 3 Euro competitions tips, it has not been my finest period. Hopefully I can improve on these figures over the weekend.
As mentioned, midweek was mostly concerned with the Euro Cups, the 'Champions' League and the Europa League. Whilst I have mentioned before how I shy away from any meaningful bets on the Europa League for most of it's duration, I feel safer now that we have reached the Quarter Final stage. You'd hope teams would now be taking it seriously. The Champions League this week saw only one real surprise with Chelsea winning away at Benfica. Obviously it wasn't a huge shock, Chelsea re far from a poor side, but nevertheless I would have expected more from Benfica. They have been relatively impressive in topping Man Utd's group and progressing this far, only to fairly tamely surrender any home advantage they had and leave themselves staring exit in the face.
I personally find there is often some value available in the Europa League if you have a root around at teams recent form and how their domestic campaigns are going. This week I thought AZ Alkmaar were brilliant value at a shade under 3.0 at home to Valencia, and I was proven correct. The Dutch side are no mugs and have challenged for the Eredivisie title in recent seasons. Valencia are obviously a good side, but one that is hopelessly out of form at the moment. The lead that looked unassailable for third spot in La Liga now looks increasingly fragile. The fans have never took to the studious coach Unai Emery and now results have finally gone backwards the atmosphere is terrible and is contributing to the malaise displayed on the pitch.
Music is from Millencolin with Farewell My Hell.
Wigan v Stoke City, Saturday 1500
Now, you may have gathered I have been running something of a personal campaign to see Wigan removed from the Premier League due to the lack of local support and the fact they are rubbish for 80% of every season. I am tired of them surviving by the skin of their teeth every year and it looks like they may well spite me again. They have been as good as bottom for a long while until recently when they somehow managed to get two wins on the spin to give them a chance of staying up. Last weekends win away at Anfield obviously grabbed headlines as it continued Liverpool's wretched recent form, but Wigan again showed they seem to be able to raise their game when really required. There has always been some talented players there, it is a shame they seem unable to play well until the threat of the drop looms large.
Stoke looked in a spot of bother mid-season when it seemed like their Europa League run may well leave their league status in jeopardy. They have not got a large squad and fighting on all fronts was costing them dearly. The experience will be good for them though, and now they have exited that competition their league form has also stabilised and they seem comfortably mi-table once again. They are now without a win in three matches though and look like another side where Wigan can gain valuable points. They're going to stay up again aren't they?
Back Wigan at 2.7 with Boylesports.
Newcastle v Liverpool, Sunday 1330
Newcastle have recently got back to winning ways and are again not out of the race for a Champions League spot. January signing Papiss Cisse has impressed a lot with five goals in his first six appearances further outlining the depth of stupidity behind Liverpool's signing of Andy Carroll. Cisse had an excellent record of scoring in the German Bundesliga for a smaller side and yet this proven record was deemed to value him at less than a third of what Liverpool paid for Carroll, the English tax indeed. Anyway, the Magpie's have pushed up level on points with Chelsea and only five behind Spurs in fifth place. Whilst Alan Pardew may be playing down their chances of getting fourth spot, I am sure he will be telling the players to go out and enjoy themselves as underdogs. Last weekend they absolutely blew WBA away in the first 30 minutes and Hatem Ben Arfa was brilliant down the wing. The Frenchman was always seen as a talent, but only now has he really begun to show it. An out of sorts Jose Enrique will not relish facing him on his return to St James Park.
Liverpool are going from bad to plain laughable at the moment. The fact that a significant proportion of the fanbase remain behind Kenny Dalglish does nothing to dis-spell the theory that they are the strangest, most cultish group around. The man did improve performance slightly upon his original appointment, but it looks more and more like it was merely a reaction to a new broom, than any sort of ability on his part. The easiest stick to beat him with is the signings of Carroll, Henderson, Downing and Adam at well over £100million pounds for the lot. But he deserves every whack he gets for it. They are all no more than average and have added nothing much to a side that is crying out for creativity (to help Suarez) or just some sort of pace. The manager and many fans will point to the Carling Cup, and silverware is nice, but if it is at the expense of the team regressing then I doubt many will envy them.
Back Newcastle at 3.12 with BetVictor.
Sporting Gijon v Real Zaragoza, Saturday 1700
My only tip from Spain this week sees two struggling sides meet in Gijon. Both have steadily slipped backwards in the past few seasons, mostly due to money worries. Gijon have been surviving because they are tight at the back and make it very difficult for any side to play against them. They are not afraid to play a bit dirty if necessary and their home form has normally been excellent considering their expenditure. Considering they are second bottom at present their home form of won four, drawn four and lost six is not actually horrendous, but sadly losing ten from fifteen away has them in the position they currently occupy.
Zaragoza have been bottom for the vast majority of the season, but have recently shown signs of life. They have won back to back matches over giants Atletico and Valencia to pull level on points with two other sides and give them hopes of survival. They are scoring goals again and they are treating every match as if they have nothing to lose. This approach is giving me faith that two poor sides may well serve up a thriller.
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.1 with Ladbrokes.
Roma v Novara, Sunday 1130
Roma are in a bit of a transition under their American owners at present, trying to see if they can change the approach teams take to Serie A. They started this revamp by taking Luis Enrique from in charge of Barcelona's B side to take the reigns and try and replicate some of the more technical elements of Barcelona's play. The theory being presumably that Barcelona would beat all the sides in Serie A easily so why not aim to copy them? This hasn't had immediate effects, but recently there have been signs that something is coming together. The form of ex-Chelsea player Fabio Borini has been a highlight, with the youngster grabbing five goals in his last six matches. This has even led to talk of a late call-up to the Italy squad for Polkraine in the summer. He will be looking forward to facing a leaky Novara side.
Novara have probably not much enjoyed their season in the big league aside of doing the double over Inter Milan. They are not down yet, but as they are eight points from safety and only have nine matches remaining it is fairly safe to assume they'll be back in Serie B next season. They have looked a bit better lately, but against sides that have been experiencing some slumps in effort themselves after long seasons. Roma have had very little to play other than the league for a while now and I would expect them to dish out a good win here.
Back Fabio Borini To Score Anytime at 2.0 with Paddy Power.
Hertha Berlin v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1730
Hertha Berlin finally looked like they might have enough to escape in last weeks impressive away victory over Mainz. Otto Rehagel was appointed a few weeks ago in a last throw of the dice move by the club to try and escape the drop. For the first few matches it looked like a bad move, and in the thrashing by Bayern two weeks ago they looked doomed. However comma King Otto has now moved back to the tactics they employed under Markus Babbel to win promotion and they got a good result. If they can keep that fighting spirit then they definitely have every chance of sticking around in the top league as the players are more than able.
Wolfsburg have only two away wins to their name all season, one on the opening weekend and one a couple of weeks ago to down one of my tips! They are comfortbaly mid-table and probably too far off the top sides to move for European football so I would imagine effort will slow somewhat in the coming weeks. The problem they have had is a very leaky defence, they have conceded an astonishing thirty two in thirteen away matches so far this season. Hertha Berlin have another good chance to move up the table.
Back Hertha Berlin at 2.5 with BetVictor.
Hannover 96 v Borussia Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430
Two sides meet on Sunday who have built their teams around solidity and hard work. Hannover have also progressed as far as the Quarter Finals of the Europa League and with them sitting in upper mid-table, I would expect them to perhaps concentrate on that competition slightly more. They don't score that many, and with ex-Man Utd 'star' Mame Diouf up front it is perhaps no surprise, but they keep it tight and nick games by wearing teams out and punishing their tiredness. Unfortunately Gladbach should be able to match them for graft.
I can't really add much about Gladbach that I haven't already this season as they have been such a regular feature of the column. They are similar to Hannover in approach in the main, but are elevated by the presence of Marco Reus and the pace and flair he brings. They press teams high up the pitch and rely on stamina to keep this pressure up and force mistakes out of their opponents. Where Hannover rely more on power though, Gladbach have Reus to open sides up and scare defenders into mistakes. They've been off the boil of late and lost last weekend, but I think they could get a win if Hannover feel the effects of their Thursday exploits.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach Draw No Bet at 1.9 with William Hill.
Kayserispor v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1330
At present we are only a couple of matches away from the Super Lig breaking up into it's play-offs for the first time ever. Whilst the Big Four have settled into the spots for the Champions League and Title play-offs there is still plenty of sides in with a shout for the Europa League play-offs. Kayserispor are one of those sides. They are six points off with two to play so mathematically there is still a chance. With Eskisehir holding the bottom place of the play-offs currently they could get closer by beating them this week. They have a home record of won eight, drawn three and lost five, which is very good, but there is no particular give away as to which side will turn up most weeks. They are capable of a 3-3 draw with Trabzon, but lost at home to gencler the week before.
Eskisehir are the masters of shutting up shop and closing games out. They look for one nil wins where possible and reduce the risk of getting beaten by getting five or six behind the ball at all times. They are without a win in three now, but narrowly lost last weekend 1-0 and drew 1-1 the week before when away. I think they will be trying even harder not to lose in the hope of clinging on to their play-off spot and see this as possibly an awful match to watch.
Back the Draw at 3.2 with Stan James.
Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1700
Another big match this weekend sees Fener travelling to Trabzon. Both sides are assured of their spots in the play-offs for the Super Lig now, but with points still important they should both be going for victory, or at least not to lose. Trabzon's form has picked up since they left European competition and their smallish squad was more able to cope with the workload. The striker Yilmaz has again looked excellent all season long and has been banging the goals in that keep them well up the table. They are unbeaten in four and took the lead away at Gala last weekend only to be pegged back by a last minute equaliser. They should be confident of gaining a victory and catching Fener up.
Fener made some big signings in January in an attempt to claw back the lead that gala had built in the first half of the season, but this has not happened. The likes of Moussa Sow have impressed, but the team has not gelled together enough to get into a run of good form. They now trail by seven points and if they lose this they will have a real job to hold on to the league title. They haven't lost in six, but the only side in form they faced was Gala and they were lucky to hold on to a 2-2 draw by the finish. I think that Trabzon have a brilliant chance here.
Back Trabzonspor at 2.37 with Stan James.
Friday, 30 March 2012
Friday, 23 March 2012
Sun Is Shining...
Good morning followers. A good weekend last time out with a healthy profit shown, it would have been even better but for Udinese capitulating against Napoli from 2-0 up to finish 2-2. The weekend was obviously overshadowed by the awful situation concerning Fabrice Muamba. His situation seems to have gradually improved so all my best wishes to him in his future recovery.
There has been a number of matches midweek around Europe and some interesting results. Man City came from behind to beat Chelsea 2-1 at home. Truth be told it was no less than their performance deserved, they only lacked a last ball or cutting edge. Carlos Tevez came on and set up the winner, and his constant harrying of defenders and barrelling runs definitely unsettled the visitors and made a difference. It is a great shame that he has been brought into the fold in my opinion. City were one of a select few clubs that could have afforded to let him rot, and it may well have encouraged a change in player power over time. But, sadly we will probably now see him make a difference in the title race and all the rest be swept under the carpet.
We also saw Arsenal overhaul Tottenham in the race for third spot and automatic Champions League qualification. As we stand Arsenal are now the leagues form side in the last six matches and look solid, a description that is not often levelled at the Gunners. Spurs, on the other hand, are looking hopeless. I know I am often quick to criticise Redknapp, but I feel justified as most Spurs message boards seem in agreement that it can be seen as his fault. Whenever Aaron Lennon is injured he tries to shoehorn players like Van Der Vaart and Modric into unfamiliar positions and their performances have dipped considerably. Why he has done this is anyone's guess as after all the signings he has made and the acclaim he has received he should be further questioned, in my opinion of course.
Music comes from Queens Of The Stone Age with Sky Is Fallin', a good summer tune for me.
Bolton v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
As mentioned above, Bolton are still naturally shocked by the collapse and what looks like a heart attack suffered by Fabrice Muamba on Saturday in the FA Cup. Before this though they were already in terrible form and looking increasingly likely to be unable to avoid being involved in a relegation fight. This has, in truth, been the case all season as Owen Coyle has presided over the team becoming listless and devoid of flair without any criticism from either the fans or the media that I have noticed. This seems incredibly odd to me. They may not be a big club, or even have anything like a right to be in the top division, but it seems all involved at the club are happy to watch them slip further and further. I can only see the Muamba incident hurting the team so I would imagine they'll slip into the Championship.
Blackburn looked a nailed on certainty to be relegated in the opening weeks of the season. With the few reliably good players they had also being shipped out and noone of note being brought in, it looked like curtains for Rovers. However comma Steve Kean has defied popular opinion to guide them further and further away from the bottom of the table. I have already admitted my error in writing him off, but I would like to repeat it anyway. He should have a serious shout as Manager Of The Year, but he wont, after all the behind the scenes troubles he had he has done an exemplary job of letting the results speak for themselves. They are sixth in the form table over the last six games so I can only back them in this.
Back Blackburn Rovers at 3.0 at Stan James.
Swansea v Everton, Saturday 1500
Another side in great form are Swansea, and they also have a manager who will have a good chance for Manager Of The Year. Brendan Rodgers has taken the raw parts put together by Roberto Martinez and Paulo Sousa and fashioned a brilliant side, with no superstars but a perfect team. The high pressing and short passing game has been compared to Barcelona, and whilst it may be an exaggeration, there are similarities in the play. Both defend from the front and have a player to keep things ticking over in the middle, in the Swans case Leon Brittain. They thing they missed in the first half of the season was the man to provide some pizazz, and now they have him in Gylffi Sigurdsson. The Icelandic international has made a huge difference and added goals and unpredictability to the team, they'll do well to extend his stay. His presence has also seen them arrest their poor away record as they are able to turn clean sheets into wins.
Everton have turned their season round to the point where they are no longer looking over their shoulders. But in truth they have had a poor time of it and I would advocate David Moyes moving on for the good of all parties. This would benefit Moyes more as he has proven himself to be an astute manager and would no doubt succeed wherever he went, Spurs would be my guess. Everton may well find themselves harking back to the mid-table days under him if the replacement failed, but I can't see them improving under Moyes now. They have struggled for goals for a few seasons, but since Tim Cahill stopped scoring around 18 months ago they have really found it tough going. The loan signing of Landon Donavan for 2 months this season and last added some attacking impetus, but after his return to the USA they have again looked out of ideas in the final third.
Back Swansea at 2.25 with BetVictor.
Real Zaragoza v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 1100
The early Sunday kick off in La Liga sees relegation threatened Zaragoza taking on Atleti. Zaragoza had a brilliant midweek win away at Valencia. They were 1-0 down and also down to ten men, but somehow rallied to in 2-1 with Apono grabbing both goals. Zaragoza have fallen victim to the same problems as many in Spain do outside of a select few clubs, namely being broke. Real Madrid and Barcelona hog all the TV money and unfortunately that leaves very little left for everyone else. The clubs then have the decision on whether to gamble on big salaries to attract players and hope for European qualification for cash. Zara took the gamble and have paid for it for years. They are bottom of the table and only something approaching a miracle can save them, but the win against Valencia was a start.
Atleti started out brilliantly after appointing former playing favourite Diego Simeone as manager around xmas. They were barely conceding and putting together a fantastic run. This could never last though, Atleti are not made that way. They are now back to playing good teams off the park one week, and being turned over by minnows the next. They have also reverted back to struggling away from home recently. It is almost like they can only raise themselves for big matches, and find if difficult to do the same when travelling to smaller clubs. The shining light has been Falcao's continued goal getting up front and the glimpses of brilliance from Salvio after a couple of years of adjusting to leaving Argentina so young.
Back Real Zaragoza and the Draw Double Chance at 2.1 with Coral.
I can't see any outstanding value in Italy's matches this weekend so I would simply suggest backing an AC Milan and Juventus double. Both sides have looked good of late and the chase for the title should see them continue winning.
Wolfsburg v Hamburg, Friday 1930
A rare Friday tip this week from the Bundesliga's regular evening slot. Wolfsburg have fallen a long way since winning the title a few years ago. Whilst many may well laugh at how Steve McClaren's appointment coincided with this it was probably bound to happen anyway. The season they triumphed saw them take advantage of a slipping of standards around them and many of their players overperforming. They have now settled into a mid-table position, with their home form thankfully hiding a hideous away record. They go eight wins, two draws and three defeats at home and managed to even get an away win at Nurnberg last weekend which should fill them with confidence too.
Hamburg's problems have been listed here before now so I will only cover them briefly this time. Since the appointment of ex-Chelsea head of scouting Frank Arnesen as General Manager over the summer they have recruited half of the Chelsea reserves. This is understandable to a point as Arnesen was responsible for most of them being at the Blues, however since they all a long way off top level lass the side has suffered. The days of European qualification look a long time ago now and they will do well to avoid slipping in the Bundesliga II. Their home form is as bad as it has been in their history, and is only beaten by Kaiserslautern this season. They has a huge match with Freiburg last weekend that they lost and they look like a team who knows it isn't good enough and has given up.
Back Wolfsburg at 2.1 with SkyBet.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
It has been a couple of weeks since column favourites Gladbach appeared, but they're back this week. They have been a bit off colour in the last month after the goals seemed to dry up for them and they struggled to break sides down. This could be attributed to a belated realisation by other sides that they really are the real thing and they will punish you if you try to play an open match against them. They have also had injuries to contend with to key players who their small squad struggled to replace. The do look like they are back now though with an impressive away win over Leverkusen last weekend followed by holding the recently rampant Munich to a 0-0 draw in the German Cup in midweek. They should now kick on again and make the Champions League spot their own.
Hoffenheim are another side who must long for a few seasons ago when a European push was not out of the question. Since their original promotion to the top division and subsequent flurry of interest and good results they have settled a bit further down the table. They don't look in any danger of heading back down again, but they do look short of the players to take them above mid-table mediocrity. Considering they were an amateur side a decade ago this is probably no bad thing. They have struggled to pick up points away from home this season with a record of four wins, one draw and eight defeats on their travels. They also have only a solitary win since December 17th and will probably be glad to see the back of this season. They will certainly struggle to get anything in this.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach to Win To Nil at 2.7 with Paddy Power.
Eskisehirspor v Gaziantepspor, Sunday 1330
First up from the Super Lig this week is high flying Eskisehir hosting struggling Gaziantep. Eski have again showed they are one of the best of the rest this season and have been hovering around the top 4 all season, but have sadly been unable to break past the Istanbul sides and Trabzon up there. They are the masters of shutting a game down and looking to nick a goal to win a game. This is a bit of an anomaly in Turkey where there may not be many goals, but most sides do look to attack when not against the Big 4. Eskisehir have a home record of win seven, drawn four and lost four. They have only scored an average of a goal a game, but often that is enough for them. They have drawn the last two, but are unbeaten in four, and this is a chance to get a win to get back on track in the race for a Europa League spot.
Gaziantepspor were very good at home last season and that saw them to the Cup Final as well as the safety of upper mid-table in the league. This time out though they have not been quite as good. They are safe from the threat of the drop now, but their away form has been dire. They have played fifteen away winning only two, drawing six and losing seven. They have also only netted twelve times and that has been the route of their problems. Against a side as organised as Eskisehir they will really find it tough to get anything.
Back Eskisehispor at 2.1 with William Hill.
Galatasaray v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
After the excitement of last weeks huge Istanbul derby between Fener and Gala, Galatasaray have another pretty stiff test against third place Trabzon at home on Sunday. However, whilst on paper first versus third should be a tight match, Gala have been so far ahead of everyone this season they should not be too worried. After all the scandals surrounding Fener over the summer Gala used the time to add to the nucleus of a good side and have been imperious this time out. The excellent Muslera in goal with Mellberg at the heart of defence provides a platform for the midfield and attack to spring from in the knowledge they are covered. In fourteen home matches they have only conceded thirteen times and have only lost once so far.
Trabzon have proven to again be the best of the rest in the Super Lig and a lot of that is down to the goals of Yilmaz. When they are struggling towards a draw you can rely upon him to pop up with a goal and turn a draw into a victory for his side. Whilst they have also been good at home they have drawn far too many matches away. They have played fifiteen away and go five wins, seven draws and three defeats. The lack of defeats is definitely good, but the record does not bode well when you're visiting the best side in the division. I don't think Gala will run up a huge win, but they look good things to come away with another victory.
Back Galatasaray at 1.87 on Betfair.
There has been a number of matches midweek around Europe and some interesting results. Man City came from behind to beat Chelsea 2-1 at home. Truth be told it was no less than their performance deserved, they only lacked a last ball or cutting edge. Carlos Tevez came on and set up the winner, and his constant harrying of defenders and barrelling runs definitely unsettled the visitors and made a difference. It is a great shame that he has been brought into the fold in my opinion. City were one of a select few clubs that could have afforded to let him rot, and it may well have encouraged a change in player power over time. But, sadly we will probably now see him make a difference in the title race and all the rest be swept under the carpet.
We also saw Arsenal overhaul Tottenham in the race for third spot and automatic Champions League qualification. As we stand Arsenal are now the leagues form side in the last six matches and look solid, a description that is not often levelled at the Gunners. Spurs, on the other hand, are looking hopeless. I know I am often quick to criticise Redknapp, but I feel justified as most Spurs message boards seem in agreement that it can be seen as his fault. Whenever Aaron Lennon is injured he tries to shoehorn players like Van Der Vaart and Modric into unfamiliar positions and their performances have dipped considerably. Why he has done this is anyone's guess as after all the signings he has made and the acclaim he has received he should be further questioned, in my opinion of course.
Music comes from Queens Of The Stone Age with Sky Is Fallin', a good summer tune for me.
Bolton v Blackburn, Saturday 1500
As mentioned above, Bolton are still naturally shocked by the collapse and what looks like a heart attack suffered by Fabrice Muamba on Saturday in the FA Cup. Before this though they were already in terrible form and looking increasingly likely to be unable to avoid being involved in a relegation fight. This has, in truth, been the case all season as Owen Coyle has presided over the team becoming listless and devoid of flair without any criticism from either the fans or the media that I have noticed. This seems incredibly odd to me. They may not be a big club, or even have anything like a right to be in the top division, but it seems all involved at the club are happy to watch them slip further and further. I can only see the Muamba incident hurting the team so I would imagine they'll slip into the Championship.
Blackburn looked a nailed on certainty to be relegated in the opening weeks of the season. With the few reliably good players they had also being shipped out and noone of note being brought in, it looked like curtains for Rovers. However comma Steve Kean has defied popular opinion to guide them further and further away from the bottom of the table. I have already admitted my error in writing him off, but I would like to repeat it anyway. He should have a serious shout as Manager Of The Year, but he wont, after all the behind the scenes troubles he had he has done an exemplary job of letting the results speak for themselves. They are sixth in the form table over the last six games so I can only back them in this.
Back Blackburn Rovers at 3.0 at Stan James.
Swansea v Everton, Saturday 1500
Another side in great form are Swansea, and they also have a manager who will have a good chance for Manager Of The Year. Brendan Rodgers has taken the raw parts put together by Roberto Martinez and Paulo Sousa and fashioned a brilliant side, with no superstars but a perfect team. The high pressing and short passing game has been compared to Barcelona, and whilst it may be an exaggeration, there are similarities in the play. Both defend from the front and have a player to keep things ticking over in the middle, in the Swans case Leon Brittain. They thing they missed in the first half of the season was the man to provide some pizazz, and now they have him in Gylffi Sigurdsson. The Icelandic international has made a huge difference and added goals and unpredictability to the team, they'll do well to extend his stay. His presence has also seen them arrest their poor away record as they are able to turn clean sheets into wins.
Everton have turned their season round to the point where they are no longer looking over their shoulders. But in truth they have had a poor time of it and I would advocate David Moyes moving on for the good of all parties. This would benefit Moyes more as he has proven himself to be an astute manager and would no doubt succeed wherever he went, Spurs would be my guess. Everton may well find themselves harking back to the mid-table days under him if the replacement failed, but I can't see them improving under Moyes now. They have struggled for goals for a few seasons, but since Tim Cahill stopped scoring around 18 months ago they have really found it tough going. The loan signing of Landon Donavan for 2 months this season and last added some attacking impetus, but after his return to the USA they have again looked out of ideas in the final third.
Back Swansea at 2.25 with BetVictor.
Real Zaragoza v Atletico Madrid, Sunday 1100
The early Sunday kick off in La Liga sees relegation threatened Zaragoza taking on Atleti. Zaragoza had a brilliant midweek win away at Valencia. They were 1-0 down and also down to ten men, but somehow rallied to in 2-1 with Apono grabbing both goals. Zaragoza have fallen victim to the same problems as many in Spain do outside of a select few clubs, namely being broke. Real Madrid and Barcelona hog all the TV money and unfortunately that leaves very little left for everyone else. The clubs then have the decision on whether to gamble on big salaries to attract players and hope for European qualification for cash. Zara took the gamble and have paid for it for years. They are bottom of the table and only something approaching a miracle can save them, but the win against Valencia was a start.
Atleti started out brilliantly after appointing former playing favourite Diego Simeone as manager around xmas. They were barely conceding and putting together a fantastic run. This could never last though, Atleti are not made that way. They are now back to playing good teams off the park one week, and being turned over by minnows the next. They have also reverted back to struggling away from home recently. It is almost like they can only raise themselves for big matches, and find if difficult to do the same when travelling to smaller clubs. The shining light has been Falcao's continued goal getting up front and the glimpses of brilliance from Salvio after a couple of years of adjusting to leaving Argentina so young.
Back Real Zaragoza and the Draw Double Chance at 2.1 with Coral.
I can't see any outstanding value in Italy's matches this weekend so I would simply suggest backing an AC Milan and Juventus double. Both sides have looked good of late and the chase for the title should see them continue winning.
Wolfsburg v Hamburg, Friday 1930
A rare Friday tip this week from the Bundesliga's regular evening slot. Wolfsburg have fallen a long way since winning the title a few years ago. Whilst many may well laugh at how Steve McClaren's appointment coincided with this it was probably bound to happen anyway. The season they triumphed saw them take advantage of a slipping of standards around them and many of their players overperforming. They have now settled into a mid-table position, with their home form thankfully hiding a hideous away record. They go eight wins, two draws and three defeats at home and managed to even get an away win at Nurnberg last weekend which should fill them with confidence too.
Hamburg's problems have been listed here before now so I will only cover them briefly this time. Since the appointment of ex-Chelsea head of scouting Frank Arnesen as General Manager over the summer they have recruited half of the Chelsea reserves. This is understandable to a point as Arnesen was responsible for most of them being at the Blues, however since they all a long way off top level lass the side has suffered. The days of European qualification look a long time ago now and they will do well to avoid slipping in the Bundesliga II. Their home form is as bad as it has been in their history, and is only beaten by Kaiserslautern this season. They has a huge match with Freiburg last weekend that they lost and they look like a team who knows it isn't good enough and has given up.
Back Wolfsburg at 2.1 with SkyBet.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Hoffenheim, Saturday 1430
It has been a couple of weeks since column favourites Gladbach appeared, but they're back this week. They have been a bit off colour in the last month after the goals seemed to dry up for them and they struggled to break sides down. This could be attributed to a belated realisation by other sides that they really are the real thing and they will punish you if you try to play an open match against them. They have also had injuries to contend with to key players who their small squad struggled to replace. The do look like they are back now though with an impressive away win over Leverkusen last weekend followed by holding the recently rampant Munich to a 0-0 draw in the German Cup in midweek. They should now kick on again and make the Champions League spot their own.
Hoffenheim are another side who must long for a few seasons ago when a European push was not out of the question. Since their original promotion to the top division and subsequent flurry of interest and good results they have settled a bit further down the table. They don't look in any danger of heading back down again, but they do look short of the players to take them above mid-table mediocrity. Considering they were an amateur side a decade ago this is probably no bad thing. They have struggled to pick up points away from home this season with a record of four wins, one draw and eight defeats on their travels. They also have only a solitary win since December 17th and will probably be glad to see the back of this season. They will certainly struggle to get anything in this.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach to Win To Nil at 2.7 with Paddy Power.
Eskisehirspor v Gaziantepspor, Sunday 1330
First up from the Super Lig this week is high flying Eskisehir hosting struggling Gaziantep. Eski have again showed they are one of the best of the rest this season and have been hovering around the top 4 all season, but have sadly been unable to break past the Istanbul sides and Trabzon up there. They are the masters of shutting a game down and looking to nick a goal to win a game. This is a bit of an anomaly in Turkey where there may not be many goals, but most sides do look to attack when not against the Big 4. Eskisehir have a home record of win seven, drawn four and lost four. They have only scored an average of a goal a game, but often that is enough for them. They have drawn the last two, but are unbeaten in four, and this is a chance to get a win to get back on track in the race for a Europa League spot.
Gaziantepspor were very good at home last season and that saw them to the Cup Final as well as the safety of upper mid-table in the league. This time out though they have not been quite as good. They are safe from the threat of the drop now, but their away form has been dire. They have played fifteen away winning only two, drawing six and losing seven. They have also only netted twelve times and that has been the route of their problems. Against a side as organised as Eskisehir they will really find it tough to get anything.
Back Eskisehispor at 2.1 with William Hill.
Galatasaray v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
After the excitement of last weeks huge Istanbul derby between Fener and Gala, Galatasaray have another pretty stiff test against third place Trabzon at home on Sunday. However, whilst on paper first versus third should be a tight match, Gala have been so far ahead of everyone this season they should not be too worried. After all the scandals surrounding Fener over the summer Gala used the time to add to the nucleus of a good side and have been imperious this time out. The excellent Muslera in goal with Mellberg at the heart of defence provides a platform for the midfield and attack to spring from in the knowledge they are covered. In fourteen home matches they have only conceded thirteen times and have only lost once so far.
Trabzon have proven to again be the best of the rest in the Super Lig and a lot of that is down to the goals of Yilmaz. When they are struggling towards a draw you can rely upon him to pop up with a goal and turn a draw into a victory for his side. Whilst they have also been good at home they have drawn far too many matches away. They have played fifiteen away and go five wins, seven draws and three defeats. The lack of defeats is definitely good, but the record does not bode well when you're visiting the best side in the division. I don't think Gala will run up a huge win, but they look good things to come away with another victory.
Back Galatasaray at 1.87 on Betfair.
Friday, 16 March 2012
Manchester Exits Europe...
An interesting week in Europe with Chelsea now the last men standing as England's representatives in European competition. I would say I hope this puts to bed any more suggestions that the Premier League is the best in the world, but I know it will still happen.
Chelsea should be commended for doing what only four teams before them have in overturning a 2 goal deficit in the second leg of their Champions League match with Napoli. The caveat is that they will be beaten by Barcelona, Real or Bayern comfortably and I wouldn't be in a rush to back them against anyone barring APOEL over two legs. The hurry to acclaim the old guard for the result should also be tempered with the acceptance they would not have made that effort for Villas Boas. You could say he has to earn that from them and his poor management led to lethargic performances, and that may be true, but they have been disgustingly unprofessional throughout the whole saga. Sadly, it is no more than we have come to expect from them either.
The title not-so-subtly alludes to both Manchester sides bowing out of the Europa League last night too. Both exits were embarrassing. United were outplayed in both legs by the side fighting for fourth in La Primera, and City left themselves too much to do against a side miles off Porto and Benfica in their domestic league. To go back to my first point, this really does show how far the Premier League is slipping at present. Many point to the boredom of Real and Barca endlessly sharing Spanish titles, and they're right on that score, but they fail to note that they would also walk any other league in the world in a similar fashion with their current sides.
Music comes from Johnny Cash with Cry!Cry!Cry!.
I am going to break with tradition and just have a multiple punt at England this week as I fail to see any particular value in the matches.
Back Chelsea, Man Utd and Tottenham as a treble.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Betis, Saturday 2100
The late match in Spain this Saturday sees two of last seasons promoted sides meeting in Madrid. Rayo have a very good case for being the most vehemently supported side in the capital as anyone who has been to the ground or watched them on TV will attest to. This raucous element can work both ways, as a home record of five wins, one draw and seven losses shows, but they have beaten Santander and Getafe recently whilst only losing to a solitary Ronaldo goal against Real. They sit comfortably in mid-table and could still possibly push for a European place which should see them maintaining maximum effort until the end of the season.
Betis have not fared quite so well since promotion. They could still slip back into the Segunda division as they are only four points clear of the final relegation spot. They are another side who have a rowdy home support, and they are famed throughout Spain for the more crazy element of that. Their away form has been the let down for them with a record of won four, drawn none and lost nine when away from home comforts. They are also without a win in their last three matches, although one of those was against Madrid, where they put up a decent fight.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.3 with Coral.
Levante v Villarreal, Sunday 1100
The early morning on Sunday has over-achievers Levante taking on this seasons major disappointments Villarreal in Valencia. Levante started off the season brilliantly, and in the absence of any side outside of the top three putting together a run of wins, they have held on at the top of the table to fight for European football. This has been in the main down to that early run, and them being very hard to beat at home. Their home record reads won seven, drawn three and lost three, they have scored twenty three and only conceded fourteen in those matches too. In a league with Real and Barca present that lack of conceding is no mean feat.
As mentioned Villarreal have been a huge disappointment this time out. They were only ever a very small club in the grand scheme of things, propped up by a local businessman to push them ahead of the other also rans. The scouting network that they set up in South America reaped huge rewards, as did taking big club failures like Forlan and Rossi from Man Utd and giving them the confidence to play again. Since the departure of Manuel Pellegrini as manager this has all come crashing down and they are a shadow of the side they were. They have been particulalrly poor away with only one win all season, with three draws and nine losses. I can't back them here.
Back Levante at 2.5 with Stan James.
Bologna v Chievo, Sunday 1400
Italy is fast approaching end game and we have two sides here who are fairly comfortably mired in mid-table. Bologna have, however, pushed on of late as they were in danger of falling into relegation trouble. They have only lost one of the last eleven, and that was to a very good Udinese side. This run has included a draw with Juventus as well as a resounding 3-0 win away at Inter Milan. Their bad start has their home and away form looking mixed taken on a whole season basis, but they are currently one of the hardest sides to beat in Serie A. The likes of Alessandro Diamanti who looked completely out of his depth at West Ham has been reborn as a flair forward who chips in with more than a fair share of goals.
Chievo have slipped back into regular mid-table finishes after almost a decade of over-achieving. The Flying Donkeys (Best. Nickname. Ever) have proven themselves to be worthy of a place in Serie A, although they are rarely pretty in getting results. They are yet another side who rely upon their small stadium giving them an advantage when other larger sides come to town, and this season that has again been the case. However comma away from home their defence can go missing. They have played fourteen away and won three, drawn four and lost seven. All this whilst scoring only eleven and conceding twenty two.
Back Bologna at 2.3 with William Hill.
Udinese v Napoli, Sunday 1945
The two sides that have given the big boys most to fear this season meet on Sunday night in Serie A in Udine. Udinese were right up with AC Milan for the vast majority of the season, but recently they have not been on a great run and have fallen behind the unbeaten Juventus as well as Lazio and Napoli. Their amazing home form has still been good, but away they have begun to struggle for the goals that bring wins. They are also now through to the Quarter Finals of the Europa League and that may well mean they take their eye off the ball in the weeks to come. As they are still fighting for a lucrative Champions League place though we will have to see how that pans out.
Napoli were eliminated from the Champions League themselves this weak after a lacklustre display saw them losing out to Chelsea in extra time. They have generally been particularly good away from home in Europe this season as their counter attacking game is suited to it, but the absence of Maggio in particular seemed to hurt them. This could possibly be as he is more often than not the man that links the flat centre of the park to the rampaging forwards and full backs. Without this middle man, they did look slightly disjointed. He will again be missing this match so I am tempted by longish odds on the home side.
Back Udinese at 2.62 with BetVictor.
Nurnberg v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1430
Only one pick from the Bundesliga this weekend I'm afraid. I'm going to get involved in this one mostly due to Wolfsburg's horrendous away form this season. Nurnberg themselves have been a surprise to many watchers as they sit in the top half of the table after many would have expected them to struggle, if not necessarily get involved in the relegation fight. Where they have differed from many sides below them is in actually winning matches as opposed to scraping draws. Nine wins from all matches this season has left them looking down on a number of sides. At home they go five wins, three draws and four losses so far with fifteen both scored and conceded. This lack of goals is the reason they have not moved higher up the table. They often contest tight matches so the other team always has a chance to nick victory too.
Wolfsburg's away form has been terrible, as mentioned before. They have a solitary win from thirteen away and only three draws and nine defeats. They have also conceded a raft of goals to leave them with only nine in the For column and an appalling thirty one in the Against. This record has not looked like abating recently sadly for them, in their last four away matches they have only scored one and conceded ten. They did pick up a draw, but it was against a very poor Kaiserslautern side.
Back Nurnberg at 2.1 with Coral.
Fenerbahce v Galatasaray, Saturday 1800
The Big One! The Istanbul derby between the two most successful sides in the history of the Super Lig takes place this Saturday evening and it is sure to be combustible. The tow sides hate each other and they are again vying for the top spot in the table as we approach the new end of season play-offs in Turkey. Fener have fallen behind in the race recently after spending big in January to make amends for a summer mostly spent battling allegations of match fixing, with have since been found to be true. They can also point to not losing the home derby since 1999 as a reason to be excited, but Gala are as good as they've been in many a year.
As mentioned Gala have recently streaked ahead at the peak of the Super Lig to go nine points clear of Fener. They have only lost three matches all season, and only one of those away from home. The derby is a completely different matter though. There can be guaranteed to be some strange decisions, players losing their heads to impress the fans and plenty of goals if most matches between the top sides this season are anything to go by. Gala and Fener both have some awesome firepower, and you can guarantee there will be goals as the defences simply are not up to the same standard.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.5 with SportingBet.
Also back Miroslav Stoch To Score Anytime at 2.95 with SportingBet.
Chelsea should be commended for doing what only four teams before them have in overturning a 2 goal deficit in the second leg of their Champions League match with Napoli. The caveat is that they will be beaten by Barcelona, Real or Bayern comfortably and I wouldn't be in a rush to back them against anyone barring APOEL over two legs. The hurry to acclaim the old guard for the result should also be tempered with the acceptance they would not have made that effort for Villas Boas. You could say he has to earn that from them and his poor management led to lethargic performances, and that may be true, but they have been disgustingly unprofessional throughout the whole saga. Sadly, it is no more than we have come to expect from them either.
The title not-so-subtly alludes to both Manchester sides bowing out of the Europa League last night too. Both exits were embarrassing. United were outplayed in both legs by the side fighting for fourth in La Primera, and City left themselves too much to do against a side miles off Porto and Benfica in their domestic league. To go back to my first point, this really does show how far the Premier League is slipping at present. Many point to the boredom of Real and Barca endlessly sharing Spanish titles, and they're right on that score, but they fail to note that they would also walk any other league in the world in a similar fashion with their current sides.
Music comes from Johnny Cash with Cry!Cry!Cry!.
I am going to break with tradition and just have a multiple punt at England this week as I fail to see any particular value in the matches.
Back Chelsea, Man Utd and Tottenham as a treble.
Rayo Vallecano v Real Betis, Saturday 2100
The late match in Spain this Saturday sees two of last seasons promoted sides meeting in Madrid. Rayo have a very good case for being the most vehemently supported side in the capital as anyone who has been to the ground or watched them on TV will attest to. This raucous element can work both ways, as a home record of five wins, one draw and seven losses shows, but they have beaten Santander and Getafe recently whilst only losing to a solitary Ronaldo goal against Real. They sit comfortably in mid-table and could still possibly push for a European place which should see them maintaining maximum effort until the end of the season.
Betis have not fared quite so well since promotion. They could still slip back into the Segunda division as they are only four points clear of the final relegation spot. They are another side who have a rowdy home support, and they are famed throughout Spain for the more crazy element of that. Their away form has been the let down for them with a record of won four, drawn none and lost nine when away from home comforts. They are also without a win in their last three matches, although one of those was against Madrid, where they put up a decent fight.
Back Rayo Vallecano at 2.3 with Coral.
Levante v Villarreal, Sunday 1100
The early morning on Sunday has over-achievers Levante taking on this seasons major disappointments Villarreal in Valencia. Levante started off the season brilliantly, and in the absence of any side outside of the top three putting together a run of wins, they have held on at the top of the table to fight for European football. This has been in the main down to that early run, and them being very hard to beat at home. Their home record reads won seven, drawn three and lost three, they have scored twenty three and only conceded fourteen in those matches too. In a league with Real and Barca present that lack of conceding is no mean feat.
As mentioned Villarreal have been a huge disappointment this time out. They were only ever a very small club in the grand scheme of things, propped up by a local businessman to push them ahead of the other also rans. The scouting network that they set up in South America reaped huge rewards, as did taking big club failures like Forlan and Rossi from Man Utd and giving them the confidence to play again. Since the departure of Manuel Pellegrini as manager this has all come crashing down and they are a shadow of the side they were. They have been particulalrly poor away with only one win all season, with three draws and nine losses. I can't back them here.
Back Levante at 2.5 with Stan James.
Bologna v Chievo, Sunday 1400
Italy is fast approaching end game and we have two sides here who are fairly comfortably mired in mid-table. Bologna have, however, pushed on of late as they were in danger of falling into relegation trouble. They have only lost one of the last eleven, and that was to a very good Udinese side. This run has included a draw with Juventus as well as a resounding 3-0 win away at Inter Milan. Their bad start has their home and away form looking mixed taken on a whole season basis, but they are currently one of the hardest sides to beat in Serie A. The likes of Alessandro Diamanti who looked completely out of his depth at West Ham has been reborn as a flair forward who chips in with more than a fair share of goals.
Chievo have slipped back into regular mid-table finishes after almost a decade of over-achieving. The Flying Donkeys (Best. Nickname. Ever) have proven themselves to be worthy of a place in Serie A, although they are rarely pretty in getting results. They are yet another side who rely upon their small stadium giving them an advantage when other larger sides come to town, and this season that has again been the case. However comma away from home their defence can go missing. They have played fourteen away and won three, drawn four and lost seven. All this whilst scoring only eleven and conceding twenty two.
Back Bologna at 2.3 with William Hill.
Udinese v Napoli, Sunday 1945
The two sides that have given the big boys most to fear this season meet on Sunday night in Serie A in Udine. Udinese were right up with AC Milan for the vast majority of the season, but recently they have not been on a great run and have fallen behind the unbeaten Juventus as well as Lazio and Napoli. Their amazing home form has still been good, but away they have begun to struggle for the goals that bring wins. They are also now through to the Quarter Finals of the Europa League and that may well mean they take their eye off the ball in the weeks to come. As they are still fighting for a lucrative Champions League place though we will have to see how that pans out.
Napoli were eliminated from the Champions League themselves this weak after a lacklustre display saw them losing out to Chelsea in extra time. They have generally been particularly good away from home in Europe this season as their counter attacking game is suited to it, but the absence of Maggio in particular seemed to hurt them. This could possibly be as he is more often than not the man that links the flat centre of the park to the rampaging forwards and full backs. Without this middle man, they did look slightly disjointed. He will again be missing this match so I am tempted by longish odds on the home side.
Back Udinese at 2.62 with BetVictor.
Nurnberg v Wolfsburg, Saturday 1430
Only one pick from the Bundesliga this weekend I'm afraid. I'm going to get involved in this one mostly due to Wolfsburg's horrendous away form this season. Nurnberg themselves have been a surprise to many watchers as they sit in the top half of the table after many would have expected them to struggle, if not necessarily get involved in the relegation fight. Where they have differed from many sides below them is in actually winning matches as opposed to scraping draws. Nine wins from all matches this season has left them looking down on a number of sides. At home they go five wins, three draws and four losses so far with fifteen both scored and conceded. This lack of goals is the reason they have not moved higher up the table. They often contest tight matches so the other team always has a chance to nick victory too.
Wolfsburg's away form has been terrible, as mentioned before. They have a solitary win from thirteen away and only three draws and nine defeats. They have also conceded a raft of goals to leave them with only nine in the For column and an appalling thirty one in the Against. This record has not looked like abating recently sadly for them, in their last four away matches they have only scored one and conceded ten. They did pick up a draw, but it was against a very poor Kaiserslautern side.
Back Nurnberg at 2.1 with Coral.
Fenerbahce v Galatasaray, Saturday 1800
The Big One! The Istanbul derby between the two most successful sides in the history of the Super Lig takes place this Saturday evening and it is sure to be combustible. The tow sides hate each other and they are again vying for the top spot in the table as we approach the new end of season play-offs in Turkey. Fener have fallen behind in the race recently after spending big in January to make amends for a summer mostly spent battling allegations of match fixing, with have since been found to be true. They can also point to not losing the home derby since 1999 as a reason to be excited, but Gala are as good as they've been in many a year.
As mentioned Gala have recently streaked ahead at the peak of the Super Lig to go nine points clear of Fener. They have only lost three matches all season, and only one of those away from home. The derby is a completely different matter though. There can be guaranteed to be some strange decisions, players losing their heads to impress the fans and plenty of goals if most matches between the top sides this season are anything to go by. Gala and Fener both have some awesome firepower, and you can guarantee there will be goals as the defences simply are not up to the same standard.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.5 with SportingBet.
Also back Miroslav Stoch To Score Anytime at 2.95 with SportingBet.
Friday, 9 March 2012
The Weekend Starts Here...
Well, once again we find ourselves at the weekend, assessing the merits of all the matches and betting accordingly. Last weekend ended up in a small loss unfortunately, but those who follow @TopTopTips on the Twitter will have boosted the coffers with a few midweek winners.
Whilst on the subject of midweek football, we should mention Arsenal's 'brave' comeback against AC Milan. One of the words I always cringe when seeing in football parlance is 'brave'. Almost coming back from 4-0 down has absolutely nothing to do with bravery, what exactly is there to be scared of? Anyway, Arsenal managed to start like a train and were 3-0 up at half time with many fans and neutrals willing one of the most impressive turnarounds in years. However, once Alex Oxade-Chamberlain faded due to injury, sadly so did the Gunners. You could look at this as a positive in that he is already so important, or as a negative as Arsenal really shouldn't be relying on someone so young and raw to start any good play for them. The two Manchester clubs also lost in their Europa League first legs, with United by far the bigger losers. City lost to Sporting Lisbon 1-0 in Lisbon and showed enough to suggest they should breeze the second leg. United were beaten 2-3 at home by Athletic Bilbao, and they looked all at sea defensively for long periods. Once again the midfield was completely useless against a team willing to press and Fernando Llorente had a predictably easy time up against United's centre halves. It is going to be hard for United to turn this one round.
Music comes from I Am The Avalanche with I'll Be Back Around.
Bolton v QPR, Saturday 1245
It might not seem like it is that stage yet, but we are fast approaching the business end of the season all round Europe. In the Premier League most sides now have 11 matches left to play. Bolton have been abject for the majority of this season so far, and it seems strange that the fans have not been more vocal about this. It seems coming across as a nice guy, and preaching about playing 'the right way' can buy you more time in the hotseat. Owen Coyle started his life at the Trotter's well and has made some very astute loan signings to bolster his squad in the past, but this season this has not happened. The problem is obviously quality, but a look at their form table shows that they have won as many matches as Aston Villa, but have lost four more than any other side in the division. They have only two draws to their name.
QPR sacked Neil Warnock over xmas and installed Mark Hughes with the intention of arresting a worrying slide of poor results. So far this has not happened. Although Hughes was given considerably more money than most of the league's managers over January, the side has not gotten perceivably better yet. The likes of Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora have proven themselves at this level before, but for whatever reason they are not firing under Hughes yet. It is goals they are struggling for and with six of the current top seven left after this to play they could do with a win. However, I think the lack of goals may well haunt them again.
Back Bolton at 2.5 with William Hill.
Norwich City v Wigan, Sunday 1600
It is a measure of how far Norwich have come this season that they are odds on for this match against something of a Premier league stalwart in Wigan. They have featured heavily in this column throughout the season and have definitely given us all profit as the bookmakers were naturally cautious of a newly promoted side, giving punters decent returns. There is no secret to their success really, they're a well organised side who will put in the hard yards and get physical when necessary. Players like Grant Holt and Steve Morison who have risen from much lower levels have given Premier League defenders a torrid time with their approach. The likes of John Ruddy in goal have also recently received much deserved calls from some quarters for England recognition (he's a Cambridge United lad, don't you know!).
Wigan look like they will finally plunge back out of the Premier League this season, and personally I can't say I'll mourn their disappearance. Many will tell you Roberto Martinez has them playing good stuff and should be commended for sticking to his footballing principles, but I completely disagree. Playing pretty triangles occasionally and getting absolutely nowhere with it is bad management. I am not suggesting Big Sam era Bolton, but at least that got wins and kept Bolton in the league. There are some good footballers in the Wigan ranks, but they need help from some more direct players at times, particularly a striker who can actually score. I get the impression Martinez would turn his nose up at Grant Holt, and that says everything for me.
Back Norwich at 1.9 with Totesport.
Valencia v Mallorca, Sunday 1500
Valencia have once again tied up their 'best of the rest' tag in Spain, even having once again sold their best players to service their huge debt. Those who accuse Spain of being just like the SPL are somewhat missing the point I think. Whilst Barcelona and Madrid are miles better than the rest of the Primera, they would also be miles better whichever European league you dropped them in to. If you look at the European competitions this season teams like Valencia and Athletic Bilbao have shown they can compete with the best the continent has to offer, except the big two in Spain. The only problem they sometimes have can be a mid-season lull as it all becomes too easy and they realise they're stuck in third again. They will want to keep the winning habit going now though, as they are bidding for Europa League glory as well as consolidating that third spot in La Liga.
Mallorca have been struggling on limply for a couple of seasons now. They pick up just enough wins at home to scrape above the basement, but they are nowhere near climbing any higher than that. They are yet another club that has suffered from the lopsided TV money sharing in Spain that sees Barca and Real grab almost 80% I believe and therefore leaves everyone else fighting for scraps. Without a rich backer this means clubs like Mallorca almost have to get into debt to compete. They have only scored eight in twelve whilst conceding eighteen this season away from home so Valencia should do this comfortably.
Back Valencia -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Catania v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
One team who has exceeded expectations in Serie A this season is Catania. They were in the bottom half of the division last season and dispensed with their coach to appoint the untried Vincenzo Montella to manage this time out. Many will remember him from his successful playing days at Roma, and a short loan spell at Fulham in the twilight of his career. He has made them a very tidy little side though, tough to beat and with a decent forward line too. At home they have won six, drawn four and lost only two. And they have also scored a healthy eighteen whilst only conceding half that. They are also on the back of one loss in the past eight, although there has been a few draws.
Fiorentina have not kicked on as many of their fans would have hoped after their quick return to the highest level following their demotion for bankruptcy. They have qualified for Europe in the past, but have looked like even that is too much for them the past two seasons. They have certainly missed the injured Stefan Jovetic during his lengthy absences. They have been particularly poor away from home with only a solitary win from thirteen with five draws and seven losses. They have failed to win in five away matches recently.
Back Catania at 2.15 with Ladbrokes.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
A side who impressed most neutrals, but have failed to get going this year are Mainz in Germany's Bundesliga. They stalled for a long time and have recently kick started after the return of their talisman of years gone by, Mohamed Zidan. The Egyptian is a class act who has also strangely struggled whenever he has been away from Mainz. This is his third spell and naturally he is a huge fan favourite. He has scored in all five of the matches he has played in so far on this loan. They don't draw many anyway, with five wins and five losses and two draws at home so far, matches tend to be decided with a win for either side. They have also only lost once since Zidan's return, and that was to table topping Dortmund.
Nurnberg have been almost the opposite of Mainz in that they have slightly exceeded expectations to sit in the top half currently. The issue they have had has been scoring goals with any regularity, as a For column reading only twenty three in twenty four in a high scoring division like the Bundesliga will attest to. They have only drawn once away from home all season with four wins and seven losses the other results. They are on a three match winning streak, but I think Mainz have enough to end that on Saturday afternoon.
Back Mainz 05 at 2.1 with Boylesports.
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
After the Steve McClaren experiment ended last season Wolfsburg have settled back into being a mid-table side who could push for Europe given the opportunity. Obviously it was not that long ago they won the Bundesliga, but that was a bit of a freak season when players, form and others failings all combined to give them a shot, which they took. They play in the Volkswagen Arena and that has always been a bit of a fortress for them. This season has seen this continue with seven wins, two draws and only three losses at home all season. They have scored nineteen and conceded thirteen to somewhat mask their truly horrendous away record.
Leverkusen would have hoped to have given Barcelona a harder match in midweek, and would have been full of confidence after beating Bayern Munich last weekend in the league. However comma this did not happen. Lionel Messi once again showed why he probably is the best player the world has ever seen and scored five goals. For stats fans that is more in one match than Torres has in his entire Chelsea career so far. Leverkusen therefore do have only the league left to play for, but this defeat may well take a bit of getting over. They have found it harder going away and it should be a chance for Wolfsburg to capitalise.
Back Wolfsburg Draw No Bet at 2.2 with BlueSq.
Manisaspor v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Sunday 1100
No side has faded from a good start quite like Manisaspor. In the early stages they sat as high as fourth in the table after some very good home performances, they now lie second bottom only to the dreadful Ankaragucu who have already been relegated. They have not won at home since November and have also only won one match since the winter break. They are possibly the worst side in the Super Lig at present. They have managed to concede even more at home with twenty than the eighteen they've conceded away and look doomed.
Mersin did not start too well, but have found their feet enough to now be comfortably safe from the threat of relegation. What is very strange is that this is on the back of excellent away form. In the Super Lig it is nearly always home form which contributes most of a sides points, but Mersin are bucking this trend. They have won an amazing seven from fourteen away, which is comfortably more than all but table topping Galatasaray. They have to be backed for this.
Back Mersin Idman Yurdu at 3.1 with SportingBet.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Sunday 1700
Last up this week is column regulars Bursa travelling to Eskisehirspor. Eski were last seasons over-achievers due mainly to superior home form and an uncanny ability to eke out tight wins. They are incredibly well drilled and will very rarely open up to play at all. This means they can keep the scores level for long periods and wait for an opportunity to score from an opposition mistake or a set-piece. This is backed up by only conceding a very good twenty six in twenty nine matches home and away split evenly between the two. They also thrashed Ankaragucu last week on the back of a great 2-1 win against Fenerbahce the week before.
Bursa have recently improved to move steadily into the top half of the table. However, their poor first half of the season has left them with too much to do for a European qualifying spot. They have moved back up to eighth spot, but it is their away form that has been the biggest concern. They have played thirteen away and only won four, drawn four and lost five so far. They have also conceded a whopping twenty in those matches to leave themselves with far too much to do to get back on level terms when travelling.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.55 at SportingBet.
Whilst on the subject of midweek football, we should mention Arsenal's 'brave' comeback against AC Milan. One of the words I always cringe when seeing in football parlance is 'brave'. Almost coming back from 4-0 down has absolutely nothing to do with bravery, what exactly is there to be scared of? Anyway, Arsenal managed to start like a train and were 3-0 up at half time with many fans and neutrals willing one of the most impressive turnarounds in years. However, once Alex Oxade-Chamberlain faded due to injury, sadly so did the Gunners. You could look at this as a positive in that he is already so important, or as a negative as Arsenal really shouldn't be relying on someone so young and raw to start any good play for them. The two Manchester clubs also lost in their Europa League first legs, with United by far the bigger losers. City lost to Sporting Lisbon 1-0 in Lisbon and showed enough to suggest they should breeze the second leg. United were beaten 2-3 at home by Athletic Bilbao, and they looked all at sea defensively for long periods. Once again the midfield was completely useless against a team willing to press and Fernando Llorente had a predictably easy time up against United's centre halves. It is going to be hard for United to turn this one round.
Music comes from I Am The Avalanche with I'll Be Back Around.
Bolton v QPR, Saturday 1245
It might not seem like it is that stage yet, but we are fast approaching the business end of the season all round Europe. In the Premier League most sides now have 11 matches left to play. Bolton have been abject for the majority of this season so far, and it seems strange that the fans have not been more vocal about this. It seems coming across as a nice guy, and preaching about playing 'the right way' can buy you more time in the hotseat. Owen Coyle started his life at the Trotter's well and has made some very astute loan signings to bolster his squad in the past, but this season this has not happened. The problem is obviously quality, but a look at their form table shows that they have won as many matches as Aston Villa, but have lost four more than any other side in the division. They have only two draws to their name.
QPR sacked Neil Warnock over xmas and installed Mark Hughes with the intention of arresting a worrying slide of poor results. So far this has not happened. Although Hughes was given considerably more money than most of the league's managers over January, the side has not gotten perceivably better yet. The likes of Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora have proven themselves at this level before, but for whatever reason they are not firing under Hughes yet. It is goals they are struggling for and with six of the current top seven left after this to play they could do with a win. However, I think the lack of goals may well haunt them again.
Back Bolton at 2.5 with William Hill.
Norwich City v Wigan, Sunday 1600
It is a measure of how far Norwich have come this season that they are odds on for this match against something of a Premier league stalwart in Wigan. They have featured heavily in this column throughout the season and have definitely given us all profit as the bookmakers were naturally cautious of a newly promoted side, giving punters decent returns. There is no secret to their success really, they're a well organised side who will put in the hard yards and get physical when necessary. Players like Grant Holt and Steve Morison who have risen from much lower levels have given Premier League defenders a torrid time with their approach. The likes of John Ruddy in goal have also recently received much deserved calls from some quarters for England recognition (he's a Cambridge United lad, don't you know!).
Wigan look like they will finally plunge back out of the Premier League this season, and personally I can't say I'll mourn their disappearance. Many will tell you Roberto Martinez has them playing good stuff and should be commended for sticking to his footballing principles, but I completely disagree. Playing pretty triangles occasionally and getting absolutely nowhere with it is bad management. I am not suggesting Big Sam era Bolton, but at least that got wins and kept Bolton in the league. There are some good footballers in the Wigan ranks, but they need help from some more direct players at times, particularly a striker who can actually score. I get the impression Martinez would turn his nose up at Grant Holt, and that says everything for me.
Back Norwich at 1.9 with Totesport.
Valencia v Mallorca, Sunday 1500
Valencia have once again tied up their 'best of the rest' tag in Spain, even having once again sold their best players to service their huge debt. Those who accuse Spain of being just like the SPL are somewhat missing the point I think. Whilst Barcelona and Madrid are miles better than the rest of the Primera, they would also be miles better whichever European league you dropped them in to. If you look at the European competitions this season teams like Valencia and Athletic Bilbao have shown they can compete with the best the continent has to offer, except the big two in Spain. The only problem they sometimes have can be a mid-season lull as it all becomes too easy and they realise they're stuck in third again. They will want to keep the winning habit going now though, as they are bidding for Europa League glory as well as consolidating that third spot in La Liga.
Mallorca have been struggling on limply for a couple of seasons now. They pick up just enough wins at home to scrape above the basement, but they are nowhere near climbing any higher than that. They are yet another club that has suffered from the lopsided TV money sharing in Spain that sees Barca and Real grab almost 80% I believe and therefore leaves everyone else fighting for scraps. Without a rich backer this means clubs like Mallorca almost have to get into debt to compete. They have only scored eight in twelve whilst conceding eighteen this season away from home so Valencia should do this comfortably.
Back Valencia -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Catania v Fiorentina, Sunday 1400
One team who has exceeded expectations in Serie A this season is Catania. They were in the bottom half of the division last season and dispensed with their coach to appoint the untried Vincenzo Montella to manage this time out. Many will remember him from his successful playing days at Roma, and a short loan spell at Fulham in the twilight of his career. He has made them a very tidy little side though, tough to beat and with a decent forward line too. At home they have won six, drawn four and lost only two. And they have also scored a healthy eighteen whilst only conceding half that. They are also on the back of one loss in the past eight, although there has been a few draws.
Fiorentina have not kicked on as many of their fans would have hoped after their quick return to the highest level following their demotion for bankruptcy. They have qualified for Europe in the past, but have looked like even that is too much for them the past two seasons. They have certainly missed the injured Stefan Jovetic during his lengthy absences. They have been particularly poor away from home with only a solitary win from thirteen with five draws and seven losses. They have failed to win in five away matches recently.
Back Catania at 2.15 with Ladbrokes.
Mainz 05 v Nurnberg, Saturday 1430
A side who impressed most neutrals, but have failed to get going this year are Mainz in Germany's Bundesliga. They stalled for a long time and have recently kick started after the return of their talisman of years gone by, Mohamed Zidan. The Egyptian is a class act who has also strangely struggled whenever he has been away from Mainz. This is his third spell and naturally he is a huge fan favourite. He has scored in all five of the matches he has played in so far on this loan. They don't draw many anyway, with five wins and five losses and two draws at home so far, matches tend to be decided with a win for either side. They have also only lost once since Zidan's return, and that was to table topping Dortmund.
Nurnberg have been almost the opposite of Mainz in that they have slightly exceeded expectations to sit in the top half currently. The issue they have had has been scoring goals with any regularity, as a For column reading only twenty three in twenty four in a high scoring division like the Bundesliga will attest to. They have only drawn once away from home all season with four wins and seven losses the other results. They are on a three match winning streak, but I think Mainz have enough to end that on Saturday afternoon.
Back Mainz 05 at 2.1 with Boylesports.
Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen, Saturday 1430
After the Steve McClaren experiment ended last season Wolfsburg have settled back into being a mid-table side who could push for Europe given the opportunity. Obviously it was not that long ago they won the Bundesliga, but that was a bit of a freak season when players, form and others failings all combined to give them a shot, which they took. They play in the Volkswagen Arena and that has always been a bit of a fortress for them. This season has seen this continue with seven wins, two draws and only three losses at home all season. They have scored nineteen and conceded thirteen to somewhat mask their truly horrendous away record.
Leverkusen would have hoped to have given Barcelona a harder match in midweek, and would have been full of confidence after beating Bayern Munich last weekend in the league. However comma this did not happen. Lionel Messi once again showed why he probably is the best player the world has ever seen and scored five goals. For stats fans that is more in one match than Torres has in his entire Chelsea career so far. Leverkusen therefore do have only the league left to play for, but this defeat may well take a bit of getting over. They have found it harder going away and it should be a chance for Wolfsburg to capitalise.
Back Wolfsburg Draw No Bet at 2.2 with BlueSq.
Manisaspor v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Sunday 1100
No side has faded from a good start quite like Manisaspor. In the early stages they sat as high as fourth in the table after some very good home performances, they now lie second bottom only to the dreadful Ankaragucu who have already been relegated. They have not won at home since November and have also only won one match since the winter break. They are possibly the worst side in the Super Lig at present. They have managed to concede even more at home with twenty than the eighteen they've conceded away and look doomed.
Mersin did not start too well, but have found their feet enough to now be comfortably safe from the threat of relegation. What is very strange is that this is on the back of excellent away form. In the Super Lig it is nearly always home form which contributes most of a sides points, but Mersin are bucking this trend. They have won an amazing seven from fourteen away, which is comfortably more than all but table topping Galatasaray. They have to be backed for this.
Back Mersin Idman Yurdu at 3.1 with SportingBet.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Sunday 1700
Last up this week is column regulars Bursa travelling to Eskisehirspor. Eski were last seasons over-achievers due mainly to superior home form and an uncanny ability to eke out tight wins. They are incredibly well drilled and will very rarely open up to play at all. This means they can keep the scores level for long periods and wait for an opportunity to score from an opposition mistake or a set-piece. This is backed up by only conceding a very good twenty six in twenty nine matches home and away split evenly between the two. They also thrashed Ankaragucu last week on the back of a great 2-1 win against Fenerbahce the week before.
Bursa have recently improved to move steadily into the top half of the table. However, their poor first half of the season has left them with too much to do for a European qualifying spot. They have moved back up to eighth spot, but it is their away form that has been the biggest concern. They have played thirteen away and only won four, drawn four and lost five so far. They have also conceded a whopping twenty in those matches to leave themselves with far too much to do to get back on level terms when travelling.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.55 at SportingBet.
Thursday, 1 March 2012
The Early Bird Etc...
Some cracking matches last weekend for the viewer, as well as a profitable one for followers. I didn't post any midweek tips as I'm no gambler on friendlies myself. Always hard to evaluate a non-competitive match, made even harder by withdrawals from squads and pressure from clubs not to tire players out.
As far as last weekend goes the most interesting match was definitely the North London derby between Arsenal and Spurs at The Emirates. Arsenal looked like their horrendous run was going to continue when they went 2-0 down before half time, but rallied to make it 2-2 at the break before going on to win 5-2. Some may have noticed a slight softening towards Harry Redknapp of late by myself, and I do still think he may well coax slightly more out of England's players, but there is something I fell has not been widely publicised and is a major mark against him. Namely, it is the fact that in all the success Spurs have had, they have rarely won the matches against the very best sides in the league. There is nothing wrong with beating everyone you really should, but both Eriksson and Capello did that. What the media and many seem to be calling for is a manager who can beat the best sides when put up against them, and Redknapp does not seem to have that in his resume. I foresee a slightly improved spirit when he assumes the role, but I don't see any significant progress towards winning a tournament.
Music comes from Mixtapes with And If We Both Fail?
Blackburn v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Two teams who have their own fans against them at present. Venky's moved to assure Rovers fans that no more key players would be sold this week, convenient really as the transfer window is shut so they couldn't sell them anyway. I have read that there is another protest about their ownership this weekend, and they can hardly be blamed. Saying this it does seem that the players and Steve Kean are trying their very best in very difficult circumstances and are getting some good results. The win against Man Utd over xmas being the standout result. They do have good attackers, and in Yakubu they have a striker many sides would take as a first choice, but the defence often lets them down. If they are to survive the drop to the Championship then they need to win these sorts of games.
Villa fans have a well earned reputation as whingers, but surely everyone can understand their moans this season as the unwanted Alex McCleish presides over some awful football, which isn't even grinding out results. They are simply horrendous to watch and with Darren Bent now missing and Charles N'Zogbia ostracised from the first team things could get worse yet. There is no invention to their play and McCleish seems happy to play out most of the ninety minutes without conceding before looking for a late clincher. Not what the fans consider their money's worth, and the calls for his head will only increase of they continue to hover dangerously close to the relegation spots.
Back Blackburn Rovers at 2.5 on Betfair.
Wigan v Swansea, Saturday 1500
Whilst we're on the subject of sides in trouble, Wigan are currently bottom of the table and are really in danger of being cut adrift if things don't improve. The source of their problems lies in the fact that they do not have a reliable regular goalscorer. Hugo Rodallega is nominally their centre forward, but he is more of a creator than a predator and they are struggling to get ahead in games due to this lack of cutting edge. Those that support manager Roberto Martinez will point to the fact that he gets the team playing 'properly', but it will also have to be accepted that this refusal to resort to blunter tactics may well see them finally drop out of the top division.
Under Brendan Rodgers Swansea have also been playing football on the floor and have picked up many plaudits for doing so this season. They are similar to Barcelona in that they don't have defenders who you would necessarily pick out as brilliant by any means, but the rest of the side use possession to keep the threat away and then press as a team when they want the ball back. When you add this to the attacking threat of Scott Sinclair's pace, Danny Graham's goal threat and loanee Gylffi Sigurdsson's flair and it is a potent mix. Much better sides than Wigan have fallen to the Swans and I can see them getting something here.
Back Swansea Draw No Bet at 2.2 with Ladbrokes.
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad, Sunday 1500
Bilbao have appeared numerous times in this column so far this season, and I still think they can offer good value when pitted against the right sides. They have always been a tough side to beat at home and that has slightly reduced this season, and it's something Marcelo Bielsa will be keen to reinstate. They certainly have some brilliant players in the likes of Iker Muniain and this summers major European target Javi Martinez. Most of the big sides in Europe have apparently been casting their eyes over the physically impressive specimen who can play equally adeptly in central midfield or central defence and is a natural leader. He shouldn't have any trouble getting his teammates fired up for the Basque derby though.
Sociedad have seemingly hovered around mid table for all of this season and look like they will end up there too. Their home record is good, but they have been let down away from home. They have only won three times in twelve matches away from home and have lost seven whilst only scoring twelve and conceding twenty two. In their last away match they were thrashed 4-1 by promoted Granada and again had a man sent off. They have been reduced to ten men on five occasions so far, and in the heat of this bitter rivalry I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again. They will struggle against Bilbao as it is, to lose a man would really set them back.
Back Athletic BIlbao -1.0 at 2.11 at BetVictor.
Udinese v Atalanta, Sunday 1400
One of my favourite sides to back this year have been Udinese, and in particular when they are at home. They have only lost once at home all season and also only drawn twice. All this whilst scoring twenty three goals to give them an almost two a game average and only conceding seven. This has led me to handicapping them on occasion, especially against poor away sides or low scorers. The goals of Antonio Di Natale continue to flow and after the international break he will have had plenty of rest and be raring to go. After a slip up to Fiorentina compounded by defeat at home by Milan, they have turned things round with a draw and then a 3-1 away victory over the greatly improved Bologna last time out to have them once again believing in a title push.
Atalanta look to be safe from relegation this season and that is mostly down to their home form. They have only lost twice at home all season and in those thirteen matches the defence has held firm only conceding ten. However comma away from home they have been a mixed bag. They have won three, drawn five and lost for whilst conceding eighteen. It is this that will need to be improved upon if they are to push for the top half of the table. They will not relish a trip to Udinese and I think they will struggle.
Back Udinese -0.5 at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Hannover 96 v Augsburg, Saturday 1430
One of last seasons surprise sides in the Bundesliga was Hannover and they have impressed again this season, just not quite as regularly. They play a pressing game which is maintained by having lots of young, committed players who are willing to do the running necessary to make these tactics work. They have been very impressive at home so afr and stand still unbeaten after eleven home matches. In these they have scored nineteen and conceded twelve. Since the xmas break they have only been defeated once home or away and that was in a rather unlucky 3-1 loss to top of the table Dortmund. Before that they had drawn two and won three out of five, with two wins and a draw at home. They aim to keep it tight at the back in the main and look to nick the odd goal. I think they are capable of more in this though.
Augsburg came back to the Bundesliga over the summer and have looked a little out of their depth for long periods. They lie fourth from bottom and a lot of that can be put down to not scoring enough, and their dreadful away form. This away record reads won one, drawn four and lost seven whilst only scoring ten, but conceding twenty four. They did have a good win last time out, but it was against the equally poor Hertha Berlin who still haven't properly recovered from Markus Babbel's resignation.
Back Hannover 96 -1.0 at 2.3 with Bet365.
Nurnberg v Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430
Nurnberg have been mid table most of the season and look to be well clear of relegation, but too far away from the summit to have any European aspirations. They do have a fairly solid side, but they lack creativity and a goal threat and it stops them from winning as many as they'd like to. At home they have four wins, three draws and four losses and have scored fourteen whilst conceding fifteen. In fact, in twenty three matches home and away they have only scored twenty two goals, which is very poor by Bundesliga standards.
Another column favourite are Monchengladbach and they appear again here. I do still think they are being underestimated by odds compilers at present. They have proven over almost two thirds of the season that they deserve to be considered alongside Bayern and Dortmund, but are always much longer prices. They don't score loads, but they have got thirty seven in twenty three matches due to the quality of attackers like Marco Reus. It is the goals against column that reveal their biggest strength. In those twenty three matches they have only conceded fourteen. Away from home they don't do draws, only one so far with six wins and four losses. They are also still unbeaten since the xmas break and I think it is well worth backing them to triumph here.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.5 with BetVictor.
Fenerbahce v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1700
Fener splashed the cash over the winter break to attempt to claw back the lead city rivals Galatasaray had built and so far it is looking further away than ever. They now trail by nine points and again failed to win last weekend to put the pressure on. They may well have spent big, but they have bought lots of attackers when a more sensible option might have been to tighten up a very leaky defence. They have not won away since xmas and have only kept a clean sheet in two of eleven matches since the break. They also seem to have trouble starting matches properly and have been behind at half time in six of those eleven recent matches.
Genclerbirligi have managed to stay in touch with the big boys and currently lie fifth, only behind Fener, Gala, Besiktas and Trabzon. This has largely been down to their forward with only three sides having scored more goals at this stage of the Super Lig. They take the same cavalier approach that has paid dividends for Sivasspor with most sides having poor defensive players they attack relentlessly in the hope that they will score more than the opposition. In their last six matches there have been over 3.5 goals in four and I wouldn't bet against it again here.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.62 with Paddy Power.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
The big game over the weekend in the Super Lig sees giants Besiktas take on the biggest side from outside of Istanbul Trabzonspor at home. Besiktas were very unfortunate to lose an end to end encounter with Gala last Sunday that ended 3-2 to Gala after a 92nd minute winner. The black and whites raised their game and showed why Fenerbahce should be worried more about being caught by Besiktas than catching Gala. Whilst they have been fallible away from home, they have a great record in Istanbul. They have played fourteen at home winning nine, drawing three and only losing twice. They have also scored twenty four and conceded fourteen.
Trabzonspor are now out of Europe having been eliminated by PSV and have possibly left it too late to mount a proper title assault with Gala so far ahead. They have again relied heavily upon the goals of star forward Yilmaz and some good home form to keep them in fourth spot in the table. They have seemed distracted recently and have uncharacteristically shipped a lot of goals. They have only won one of the last four and have conceded nine in those matches, including a dreadful home 2-3 defeat by Mersin Idman last weekend. They would have wanted an easier fixture this weekend.
Back Besiktas at 2.3 with Stan James.
As far as last weekend goes the most interesting match was definitely the North London derby between Arsenal and Spurs at The Emirates. Arsenal looked like their horrendous run was going to continue when they went 2-0 down before half time, but rallied to make it 2-2 at the break before going on to win 5-2. Some may have noticed a slight softening towards Harry Redknapp of late by myself, and I do still think he may well coax slightly more out of England's players, but there is something I fell has not been widely publicised and is a major mark against him. Namely, it is the fact that in all the success Spurs have had, they have rarely won the matches against the very best sides in the league. There is nothing wrong with beating everyone you really should, but both Eriksson and Capello did that. What the media and many seem to be calling for is a manager who can beat the best sides when put up against them, and Redknapp does not seem to have that in his resume. I foresee a slightly improved spirit when he assumes the role, but I don't see any significant progress towards winning a tournament.
Music comes from Mixtapes with And If We Both Fail?
Blackburn v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Two teams who have their own fans against them at present. Venky's moved to assure Rovers fans that no more key players would be sold this week, convenient really as the transfer window is shut so they couldn't sell them anyway. I have read that there is another protest about their ownership this weekend, and they can hardly be blamed. Saying this it does seem that the players and Steve Kean are trying their very best in very difficult circumstances and are getting some good results. The win against Man Utd over xmas being the standout result. They do have good attackers, and in Yakubu they have a striker many sides would take as a first choice, but the defence often lets them down. If they are to survive the drop to the Championship then they need to win these sorts of games.
Villa fans have a well earned reputation as whingers, but surely everyone can understand their moans this season as the unwanted Alex McCleish presides over some awful football, which isn't even grinding out results. They are simply horrendous to watch and with Darren Bent now missing and Charles N'Zogbia ostracised from the first team things could get worse yet. There is no invention to their play and McCleish seems happy to play out most of the ninety minutes without conceding before looking for a late clincher. Not what the fans consider their money's worth, and the calls for his head will only increase of they continue to hover dangerously close to the relegation spots.
Back Blackburn Rovers at 2.5 on Betfair.
Wigan v Swansea, Saturday 1500
Whilst we're on the subject of sides in trouble, Wigan are currently bottom of the table and are really in danger of being cut adrift if things don't improve. The source of their problems lies in the fact that they do not have a reliable regular goalscorer. Hugo Rodallega is nominally their centre forward, but he is more of a creator than a predator and they are struggling to get ahead in games due to this lack of cutting edge. Those that support manager Roberto Martinez will point to the fact that he gets the team playing 'properly', but it will also have to be accepted that this refusal to resort to blunter tactics may well see them finally drop out of the top division.
Under Brendan Rodgers Swansea have also been playing football on the floor and have picked up many plaudits for doing so this season. They are similar to Barcelona in that they don't have defenders who you would necessarily pick out as brilliant by any means, but the rest of the side use possession to keep the threat away and then press as a team when they want the ball back. When you add this to the attacking threat of Scott Sinclair's pace, Danny Graham's goal threat and loanee Gylffi Sigurdsson's flair and it is a potent mix. Much better sides than Wigan have fallen to the Swans and I can see them getting something here.
Back Swansea Draw No Bet at 2.2 with Ladbrokes.
Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad, Sunday 1500
Bilbao have appeared numerous times in this column so far this season, and I still think they can offer good value when pitted against the right sides. They have always been a tough side to beat at home and that has slightly reduced this season, and it's something Marcelo Bielsa will be keen to reinstate. They certainly have some brilliant players in the likes of Iker Muniain and this summers major European target Javi Martinez. Most of the big sides in Europe have apparently been casting their eyes over the physically impressive specimen who can play equally adeptly in central midfield or central defence and is a natural leader. He shouldn't have any trouble getting his teammates fired up for the Basque derby though.
Sociedad have seemingly hovered around mid table for all of this season and look like they will end up there too. Their home record is good, but they have been let down away from home. They have only won three times in twelve matches away from home and have lost seven whilst only scoring twelve and conceding twenty two. In their last away match they were thrashed 4-1 by promoted Granada and again had a man sent off. They have been reduced to ten men on five occasions so far, and in the heat of this bitter rivalry I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen again. They will struggle against Bilbao as it is, to lose a man would really set them back.
Back Athletic BIlbao -1.0 at 2.11 at BetVictor.
Udinese v Atalanta, Sunday 1400
One of my favourite sides to back this year have been Udinese, and in particular when they are at home. They have only lost once at home all season and also only drawn twice. All this whilst scoring twenty three goals to give them an almost two a game average and only conceding seven. This has led me to handicapping them on occasion, especially against poor away sides or low scorers. The goals of Antonio Di Natale continue to flow and after the international break he will have had plenty of rest and be raring to go. After a slip up to Fiorentina compounded by defeat at home by Milan, they have turned things round with a draw and then a 3-1 away victory over the greatly improved Bologna last time out to have them once again believing in a title push.
Atalanta look to be safe from relegation this season and that is mostly down to their home form. They have only lost twice at home all season and in those thirteen matches the defence has held firm only conceding ten. However comma away from home they have been a mixed bag. They have won three, drawn five and lost for whilst conceding eighteen. It is this that will need to be improved upon if they are to push for the top half of the table. They will not relish a trip to Udinese and I think they will struggle.
Back Udinese -0.5 at 1.96 with Ladbrokes.
Hannover 96 v Augsburg, Saturday 1430
One of last seasons surprise sides in the Bundesliga was Hannover and they have impressed again this season, just not quite as regularly. They play a pressing game which is maintained by having lots of young, committed players who are willing to do the running necessary to make these tactics work. They have been very impressive at home so afr and stand still unbeaten after eleven home matches. In these they have scored nineteen and conceded twelve. Since the xmas break they have only been defeated once home or away and that was in a rather unlucky 3-1 loss to top of the table Dortmund. Before that they had drawn two and won three out of five, with two wins and a draw at home. They aim to keep it tight at the back in the main and look to nick the odd goal. I think they are capable of more in this though.
Augsburg came back to the Bundesliga over the summer and have looked a little out of their depth for long periods. They lie fourth from bottom and a lot of that can be put down to not scoring enough, and their dreadful away form. This away record reads won one, drawn four and lost seven whilst only scoring ten, but conceding twenty four. They did have a good win last time out, but it was against the equally poor Hertha Berlin who still haven't properly recovered from Markus Babbel's resignation.
Back Hannover 96 -1.0 at 2.3 with Bet365.
Nurnberg v Monchengladbach, Sunday 1430
Nurnberg have been mid table most of the season and look to be well clear of relegation, but too far away from the summit to have any European aspirations. They do have a fairly solid side, but they lack creativity and a goal threat and it stops them from winning as many as they'd like to. At home they have four wins, three draws and four losses and have scored fourteen whilst conceding fifteen. In fact, in twenty three matches home and away they have only scored twenty two goals, which is very poor by Bundesliga standards.
Another column favourite are Monchengladbach and they appear again here. I do still think they are being underestimated by odds compilers at present. They have proven over almost two thirds of the season that they deserve to be considered alongside Bayern and Dortmund, but are always much longer prices. They don't score loads, but they have got thirty seven in twenty three matches due to the quality of attackers like Marco Reus. It is the goals against column that reveal their biggest strength. In those twenty three matches they have only conceded fourteen. Away from home they don't do draws, only one so far with six wins and four losses. They are also still unbeaten since the xmas break and I think it is well worth backing them to triumph here.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.5 with BetVictor.
Fenerbahce v Genclerbirligi, Saturday 1700
Fener splashed the cash over the winter break to attempt to claw back the lead city rivals Galatasaray had built and so far it is looking further away than ever. They now trail by nine points and again failed to win last weekend to put the pressure on. They may well have spent big, but they have bought lots of attackers when a more sensible option might have been to tighten up a very leaky defence. They have not won away since xmas and have only kept a clean sheet in two of eleven matches since the break. They also seem to have trouble starting matches properly and have been behind at half time in six of those eleven recent matches.
Genclerbirligi have managed to stay in touch with the big boys and currently lie fifth, only behind Fener, Gala, Besiktas and Trabzon. This has largely been down to their forward with only three sides having scored more goals at this stage of the Super Lig. They take the same cavalier approach that has paid dividends for Sivasspor with most sides having poor defensive players they attack relentlessly in the hope that they will score more than the opposition. In their last six matches there have been over 3.5 goals in four and I wouldn't bet against it again here.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.62 with Paddy Power.
Besiktas v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1700
The big game over the weekend in the Super Lig sees giants Besiktas take on the biggest side from outside of Istanbul Trabzonspor at home. Besiktas were very unfortunate to lose an end to end encounter with Gala last Sunday that ended 3-2 to Gala after a 92nd minute winner. The black and whites raised their game and showed why Fenerbahce should be worried more about being caught by Besiktas than catching Gala. Whilst they have been fallible away from home, they have a great record in Istanbul. They have played fourteen at home winning nine, drawing three and only losing twice. They have also scored twenty four and conceded fourteen.
Trabzonspor are now out of Europe having been eliminated by PSV and have possibly left it too late to mount a proper title assault with Gala so far ahead. They have again relied heavily upon the goals of star forward Yilmaz and some good home form to keep them in fourth spot in the table. They have seemed distracted recently and have uncharacteristically shipped a lot of goals. They have only won one of the last four and have conceded nine in those matches, including a dreadful home 2-3 defeat by Mersin Idman last weekend. They would have wanted an easier fixture this weekend.
Back Besiktas at 2.3 with Stan James.
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