We move on now to the individual groups and the betting within them as well as looking at some of the teams themselves in the betting. You can now bet on loads of different things within the groups, amount of points a side will get, straight forecasts etc. These special markets are worth looking into as they are often only there as added extras, they are not where the companies offering them will be focusing their attentions.
Group A
Group A is up first and contains Russia, Poland, Greece and the Czech Republic. It could well be seen as the weakest group, but that in itself opens up betting opportunities.
Group Winner
The favourites for this are Russia with around 2.5 available across the board, however I think they could well find themselves out at this early stage. They're a very hit and miss side, and needed the play-offs to qualify for the tournament itself. I think it's well worth looking at Poland to top the group. They have a number of players in form heading into the tournament as well as home advantage. The most important thing for them will be for Robert Lewandowski to continue the form he has shown for Dortmund this season. If he is scoring then I can see them progressing a long way. I can see Greece being as hard to beat as ever, but I doubt whether they will do any more than challenge Russia for second position. They don't score nearly enough to make a flying start, and have taken three goalkeepers who are either injured or just not very good.
Back Poland at 3.75 with BetFred.
To Finish Bottom
With this group having no absolute stand out side it could well be looked at as a free for all for qualification, however I see the Czech's as very much the weak link. They were a great side around a decade ago, but have not produced any real players of note since then. There are still members of the side from Euro 2004 around like Milan Baros who's best days are a long way behind them. If Russia play to anything like their best then I fail to see the Czech's beating anyone in the group, they could even go home without a point.
Back Czech Republic at 3.4 with Stan James.
Dual Forecast
This is the market for which two sides will qualify for the next stage and I can only see two sides getting out. I was interested in Greece as they are one of the most difficult international sides to beat and therefore should have a chance at qualification. But, I have read numerous articles panning their choice of goalkeepers in particular and it has somewhat taken away any confidence I had in them. I think you have to gamble on a decent Russia side showing up. With Andrey Arshavin and Roman Pavluychenko regaining some confidence having been loaned back to Russian sides from their Premier League owners and also Andrei Kerzakhov having another great season for Zenit I think there's more chance of a good showing than a bad one.
Back Poland/Russia at 3.5 with BetFred.
Group B
Group B contains Germany, Holland, Portugal and Denmark and has been rightly dubbed the toughest group. Germany are my tip for the whole tournament and Holland can always be relied upon to make an impression.
Group Winner
There can only be one side in this for me, and that's Germany. There is no side in world football with as many in form players as them at present. Some will point to a 'weak' defence containing Per Mertesacker, but they will be as well-drilled as ever and they've done well before with worse players at the back. From midfield forward is where they show their strength. Mesut Ozil and Bastian Schweinsteiger are probably the most dynamic midfield pairing we will see at the tournament and Mario Gomez will not be short of chances to score. Holland will have a say if they can avoid defeat to Germany, but I think even in that case Germany will be more likely to lead on goal difference. Portugal and Denmark can be ruled out of this as they are not close to the level of Germany and Holland.
Back Germany at 2.1 with Paddy Power.
To Finish Bottom
This is seen by the bookmakers as a foregone conclusion, and it is hard to see past Denmark for holding the group up, but I think it's worth a punt on Portugal. They are incredibly reliant on the form of Cristiano Ronaldo and that could be their undoing if he fails to fire consistently. He has struggled before when wearing his countries colours as the rest of the side is not really up to his level. In particular they still do not have a regular scorer and so the burden to grab goals also falls upon the Real Madrid man's shoulders. Denmark have got some good young players like Christian Eriksen of Ajax and Niklas Bendtner of Arsenal in the squad. Both sides are unlikely to get much from matches with Germany and Holland so will the match between the two will probably prove the decider for this bet. I think Denmark have more of a chance than the odds suggest, so I'm going to side with them.
Back Portugal at 3.75 with Bet365.
Dual Forecast
As mentioned I really can only see Germany and Holland emerging from this group. Holland have now added a solidity in defence they have lacked before and have players in form heading into the tournament. Robin Van Persie and Klaas Jan Huntelaar have had their best seasons for goals in the seasons just finished and will head into the tournament full of confidence they can continue. Rafael Van Der Vaart and Wesley Sneijder have been rested/withdrawn at times by their clubs, but both are still more than capable of turning it on when the mood takes them. The only worry would possibly be Martin Stekelenburg's form for Roma, but he should look better again behind a familiar defence. Therefore with these things taken into account the betting seems straightforward to me.
Back Germany/Holland at 2.1 with Paddy Power.
Tuesday, 29 May 2012
Groups C and D
With A and B out of the way, we are left with the final two groups and possibly an extra look at some of the more 'interesting Specials bets around. Things like Total Tournament Goals and Red Cards are strange little markets, but there may be some value around, I'll have a check.
Group C
Many people will be looking at this group as an easy draw for Spain and Italy, and I wouldn't really disagree with that myself. Croatia are capable of an upset though, and the Republic of Ireland wont be an easy match for anyone.
Group Winner
As mentioned the odds reflect the fact that Spain are expected to win this group with ease, even with Italy around. I'm not convinced personally about the Spaniards, I think they may be reaching the end of a cycle with the players that won them the last Euro's and the World Cup. They definitely have some good players coming through again though, so they wont be worrying too much. I think the problem will be goals for them. With Xavi and Iniesta around they will no doubt dominate possession in every match they play, but they lack a cutting edge. The likes of Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo have had good seasons, but do not necessarily fit in to Spain's national style. With David Villa fit and firing he has been Spain's main man, but has missed almost the entire season for Barcelona and looks very unlikely to play. His cutting in and interplay were very much part of the Barcelona/Spain axis that served them so well, he's a huge miss. I would imagine they'll find a way to beat Ireland and Craotia though, so they're finishing top.
Back Spain at 1.62 with Boylesports.
To Finish Bottom
This market will probably be decided by whoever wins the match between Ireland and Croatia in the first round of fixtures. I think this gives Ireland a bit more of a chance, but only because I expect Croatia to start the tournament with Eduardo up front, before making way for the in-form Nikola Jelavic. That being said though, Ireland will not be set up to score, and don't really possess much attacking threat anyway. They still heavily rely on Robbie Keane and Damien Duff, and both of their best days were around 5 years ago now. I would foresee a dire match, but I fancy Croatia to possibly snatch it, or at least get something from Italy, which I don't see Ireland doing.
Back Ireland at 1.8 with BWin.
Straight Forecast
I think there's room for a straight prediction of 1st/2nd in this group with the teams involved. Italy have been moved out in the odds thanks to an undeniable drop in standards, culminating in their awful showing in the last World Cup. However comma since then they have improved. Mario Balotelli is more than capable of being a star of the entire tournament if his head is right, and in the returning Antonio Cassano they have the invention that is often missing from Italian sides. You also have the oft-hyped Sebastian Giovinco finally delivering on his promise. The defence will be as solid as ever, and Gianluigi Buffon has also had his best campaign in years in the season just gone. All this makes it look to me like Croatia and Ireland are in for a very tough time.
Back Spain 1st/Italy 2nd at 2.8 with Paddy Power.
Group D
This is the one you've all been waiting for no doubt, England's group! It's similar in in terms of no standout sides to Group A I think, with Sweden, France and joint hosts Ukraine also in the pot.
Group Winner
As I've said I think this could well be a tight group. I would imagine England, Sweden and Ukraine will all pack their midfields and hope to profit from odd chances created by a small group of forwards. I really wanted Roy Hodgson to finally cast off the last of the Golden Generation, but sadly he has not. I think England's best chance would come with an admittance they can't compete technically with an awful lot of sides and reverting to an in-your-face style with players willing to put their ego's aside and play for the team as a whole. With the likes of Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard and John Terry still around though I fail to see this happening. I think they'll struggle, let alone win the group. The choice for me is a France side who are rebuilding after a terrible recent spell internationally. They are certainly not the Thierry Henry vintage, but they possess players in-form and confident. Yohann Cabaye and Hatem Ben Arfa have had superd seasons for Newcastle and will be keen to show off to a wider audience. Oliver Giroud gives them a striker on top of his game and playing for a big move, and the defence is solid, if not brilliant.
Back France at 2.8 with Boylesports.
To Finish Bottom
This is actually tougher than you'd think. Ukraine on paper should struggle to get a point, but hosts always seem to do better than expected in these things. Saying that though South Africa struggled in the World Cup, as did Austria in the last Euro's. I would imagine Ukraine will as ever be set up very defensively so as to avoid embarrassment, but they'll need to have something attacking wise if they're to gain more than a couple of draws. Their hope lies in the other sides all taking points off each other, not unlikely, and them sneaking a win, much more unlikely. The bookies actually have Sweden as favs for this market, and that can only be due to Ukraine's home advantage. Sweden will always be well-drilled and tough to beat, and in Ibrahimovic they possess a match winning striker. I said it was a tough one, it would appear I lied!
Back Ukraine at 3.2 with Stan James.
Dual Forecast
I'm going to take a long shot for this one. I will add the caveat that I'm doing it only because I think England are under-priced as ever so this is a value bet for me. I think France are standouts in the group so their involvement in my selection is the easy choice. As mentioned I think Ukraine are dire so they're out. This leaves England and Sweden, and I would expect the match between them to decide it. England, in my opinion, are actually unfortunate that they have their easiest match last. Wayne Rooney is the one arguably world class forward they possess who is in any sort of form and he will not be available to them for the match against Sweden. I can see Sweden frustrating England in the match, and I'd fancy Ibrahimovic against John Terry/Gary Cahill to get a goal.
Back France/Sweden at 8.0 with BODOG.
Group C
Many people will be looking at this group as an easy draw for Spain and Italy, and I wouldn't really disagree with that myself. Croatia are capable of an upset though, and the Republic of Ireland wont be an easy match for anyone.
Group Winner
As mentioned the odds reflect the fact that Spain are expected to win this group with ease, even with Italy around. I'm not convinced personally about the Spaniards, I think they may be reaching the end of a cycle with the players that won them the last Euro's and the World Cup. They definitely have some good players coming through again though, so they wont be worrying too much. I think the problem will be goals for them. With Xavi and Iniesta around they will no doubt dominate possession in every match they play, but they lack a cutting edge. The likes of Fernando Llorente and Alvaro Negredo have had good seasons, but do not necessarily fit in to Spain's national style. With David Villa fit and firing he has been Spain's main man, but has missed almost the entire season for Barcelona and looks very unlikely to play. His cutting in and interplay were very much part of the Barcelona/Spain axis that served them so well, he's a huge miss. I would imagine they'll find a way to beat Ireland and Craotia though, so they're finishing top.
Back Spain at 1.62 with Boylesports.
To Finish Bottom
This market will probably be decided by whoever wins the match between Ireland and Croatia in the first round of fixtures. I think this gives Ireland a bit more of a chance, but only because I expect Croatia to start the tournament with Eduardo up front, before making way for the in-form Nikola Jelavic. That being said though, Ireland will not be set up to score, and don't really possess much attacking threat anyway. They still heavily rely on Robbie Keane and Damien Duff, and both of their best days were around 5 years ago now. I would foresee a dire match, but I fancy Croatia to possibly snatch it, or at least get something from Italy, which I don't see Ireland doing.
Back Ireland at 1.8 with BWin.
Straight Forecast
I think there's room for a straight prediction of 1st/2nd in this group with the teams involved. Italy have been moved out in the odds thanks to an undeniable drop in standards, culminating in their awful showing in the last World Cup. However comma since then they have improved. Mario Balotelli is more than capable of being a star of the entire tournament if his head is right, and in the returning Antonio Cassano they have the invention that is often missing from Italian sides. You also have the oft-hyped Sebastian Giovinco finally delivering on his promise. The defence will be as solid as ever, and Gianluigi Buffon has also had his best campaign in years in the season just gone. All this makes it look to me like Croatia and Ireland are in for a very tough time.
Back Spain 1st/Italy 2nd at 2.8 with Paddy Power.
Group D
This is the one you've all been waiting for no doubt, England's group! It's similar in in terms of no standout sides to Group A I think, with Sweden, France and joint hosts Ukraine also in the pot.
Group Winner
As I've said I think this could well be a tight group. I would imagine England, Sweden and Ukraine will all pack their midfields and hope to profit from odd chances created by a small group of forwards. I really wanted Roy Hodgson to finally cast off the last of the Golden Generation, but sadly he has not. I think England's best chance would come with an admittance they can't compete technically with an awful lot of sides and reverting to an in-your-face style with players willing to put their ego's aside and play for the team as a whole. With the likes of Frank Lampard, Steven Gerrard and John Terry still around though I fail to see this happening. I think they'll struggle, let alone win the group. The choice for me is a France side who are rebuilding after a terrible recent spell internationally. They are certainly not the Thierry Henry vintage, but they possess players in-form and confident. Yohann Cabaye and Hatem Ben Arfa have had superd seasons for Newcastle and will be keen to show off to a wider audience. Oliver Giroud gives them a striker on top of his game and playing for a big move, and the defence is solid, if not brilliant.
Back France at 2.8 with Boylesports.
To Finish Bottom
This is actually tougher than you'd think. Ukraine on paper should struggle to get a point, but hosts always seem to do better than expected in these things. Saying that though South Africa struggled in the World Cup, as did Austria in the last Euro's. I would imagine Ukraine will as ever be set up very defensively so as to avoid embarrassment, but they'll need to have something attacking wise if they're to gain more than a couple of draws. Their hope lies in the other sides all taking points off each other, not unlikely, and them sneaking a win, much more unlikely. The bookies actually have Sweden as favs for this market, and that can only be due to Ukraine's home advantage. Sweden will always be well-drilled and tough to beat, and in Ibrahimovic they possess a match winning striker. I said it was a tough one, it would appear I lied!
Back Ukraine at 3.2 with Stan James.
Dual Forecast
I'm going to take a long shot for this one. I will add the caveat that I'm doing it only because I think England are under-priced as ever so this is a value bet for me. I think France are standouts in the group so their involvement in my selection is the easy choice. As mentioned I think Ukraine are dire so they're out. This leaves England and Sweden, and I would expect the match between them to decide it. England, in my opinion, are actually unfortunate that they have their easiest match last. Wayne Rooney is the one arguably world class forward they possess who is in any sort of form and he will not be available to them for the match against Sweden. I can see Sweden frustrating England in the match, and I'd fancy Ibrahimovic against John Terry/Gary Cahill to get a goal.
Back France/Sweden at 8.0 with BODOG.
Euro 2012 Major Outrights
As the major European leagues have now come to an end, it is time for us to look ahead to the summer’s action from Poland and Ukraine. Personally, I am a huge fan of tournament football and somehow find even the most horrendous football on show forgiveable as we get to see upwards of two matches every single day. I also generally have an eye for an outsider and always seem to come away from the tournaments in profit, albeit not huge profit every time.
This will be the first of a series of blogs looking at the antepost markets before the tournament gets started in June. As we get very near to the first matches I will be attempting to have a look at every match here, probably on a two days matches at a time basis. For these preliminary blogs this will be the first and will concentrate on the major markets before I delve into each group to search out some of the more interesting options available to punters.
Winner
The most obvious market is the Winner market for the entire tournament so we’ll start here. No bookmaker has anyone but Spain as favourites, although some have made Germany joint favourites. To be quite honest I can’t see any other country having as strong a case as these two. It’s the sheer strength in depth that makes them stand out. Both will leave out players that would walk into most other teams playing here. Both sides have the largest collection of exciting young players in the world at present due to long term planning and investment in youth facilities.
My worry as far as Spain are concerned is that the mainstays of their first choice first XI have looked tired lately. The Barcelona members have had around four years of non-stop football now, and they do not rotate much at the club. The likes of Xavi, Fabregas and Pique have all played around 50 matches and looked leggy recently against Chelsea whilst dropping out of the Champions League. The loss of Carlos Puyol to injury will also rob the squad of the most obvious leader in the dressing room. With David Villa missing all season to injury and Fernando Torres being Fernando Torres over the past two seasons they also lack goalscoring, mobile forwards, who are integral to their system. The likes of Fernando Llorente, Alvaro Negredo and Roberto Soldado have all scored plenty of goals, but none of them fit the system that has been so successful for Spain recently.
This makes Germany my choice for the whole tournament. Football seems to be increasingly won in central midfield now, and this is Germany’s major strength. For my money there is no better defensive midfielder than a fully fit Bastian Schweinsteiger, and he is coming back into Bayern Munich’s team now refreshed after a long spell out with injury. You then have Mesut Ozil as your flair in the middle, constantly probing opposition defences as well as an almost endless choice of small, quick forwards to choose from. There is also Real Madrid’s Sami Khedira as another more calming influence in the middle if that is needed, and his experience of winning the La Liga title, along with Ozil, will have them on a high coming in. You then have Mario Gomez likely to start with two from Marco Reus, Toni Kroos and Mario Goetze buzzing around him. Those three are amongst the most in-form players in Europe last season. Basically it has all come together at the right time for Germany to win, in my opinion.
Back Germany at 4.3 with Paddy Power.
To Reach The Semi Finals
An interesting market for those who like to back an outsider, but are not in it to trade if they progress. If you are a trader then I would still suggest backing the sides recommended here, but in the Winner market and then laying them on Betfair when you feel most comfortable getting your money in order.
With the Euros only being a 16 team tournament, there is more chance for an outsider to come through and do well due to the lower amount of matches. Nowhere can this be seen more clearly than Greece’s amazing triumph in the competition in 2004. In my eyes that was the start of a change in tournament football as other countries saw what can be achieved with a highly organised team. This combined with the better sides playing a higher possession based game has seen the number of goals scored in tournaments on the decrease. This increases the likelihood that a lesser team can scrape through to the Semi Finals, making this possibly an excellent market to be involved in.
My choice is Poland. Poland as joint hosts will benefit from great support in all their matches and they have been put in the easiest group of the lot in Group A. They will not find it easy to beat Greece(no one does)but Russia and the Czech Republic are both shadows of the sides they used to be. Poland also benefit from players coming into the tournament having had very good seasons for their club sides. Robert Lewandowski has scored twenty goals in the Bundesliga for Dortmund and is now being linked with a big move this summer. Szczesny of Arsenal in goal will be as confident as ever and that should spread through the side. You also have the likes of Blaszczykowski and Obraniak who have had fantastic seasons on the wings for Dortmund and Bordeaux respectively. I think they’re a great bet.
Back Poland at 6.5 with BetVictor.
Top Goalscorer
Another popular market is always Top Goalscorer. For the reasons outlined above though, I think it is becoming harder to pick one of the favourites at such short prices. There are very few matches where anyone is likely to rack up huge victories, and there could well be a tie for the winner. I usually look for a longer odds each way shot in this market, and I’ll be doing that again.
My method is usually to look for strikers who play as a lone striker, and who have been in good form in the past season. I think you can rule out Spain’s strikers, as they tend to share the goals around and I don’t think they’ll score many anyway. Lots of people are tipping Nikica Jelavic to shine for Croatia after a great season with both Rangers and Everton. Unfortunately they are in a group where goals will be at a premium and he is not a certain starter, so I’ll not be having him.
In Germany’s case, Mario Gomez will be likely to start on his own up front, but with goalscoring forwards around him I don’t think there’s any value in quotes of around 9.0 for him. I personally think a much better bet in the German squad is Marco Reus. The forward had a brilliant season with Monchengladbach and scored plenty of goals coming in from wide positions, as he will be expected to do for the national team. With my belief that Poland will go far and have a group where they could score goals, I would also pick out Robert Lewandowski as a good bet. He was one of the best strikers in Germany last season and Poland’s attack is basically built to supply him with chances.
Back Robert Lewandowski Each Way at 41.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Marco Reus Each Way at 51.0 with Ladbrokes.
I would say those are the main ones for now, I’ll be looking at the groups and will have my analysis for them online next week. Please feel free to use the comments section to ask about any markets you may have an eye on.
This will be the first of a series of blogs looking at the antepost markets before the tournament gets started in June. As we get very near to the first matches I will be attempting to have a look at every match here, probably on a two days matches at a time basis. For these preliminary blogs this will be the first and will concentrate on the major markets before I delve into each group to search out some of the more interesting options available to punters.
Winner
The most obvious market is the Winner market for the entire tournament so we’ll start here. No bookmaker has anyone but Spain as favourites, although some have made Germany joint favourites. To be quite honest I can’t see any other country having as strong a case as these two. It’s the sheer strength in depth that makes them stand out. Both will leave out players that would walk into most other teams playing here. Both sides have the largest collection of exciting young players in the world at present due to long term planning and investment in youth facilities.
My worry as far as Spain are concerned is that the mainstays of their first choice first XI have looked tired lately. The Barcelona members have had around four years of non-stop football now, and they do not rotate much at the club. The likes of Xavi, Fabregas and Pique have all played around 50 matches and looked leggy recently against Chelsea whilst dropping out of the Champions League. The loss of Carlos Puyol to injury will also rob the squad of the most obvious leader in the dressing room. With David Villa missing all season to injury and Fernando Torres being Fernando Torres over the past two seasons they also lack goalscoring, mobile forwards, who are integral to their system. The likes of Fernando Llorente, Alvaro Negredo and Roberto Soldado have all scored plenty of goals, but none of them fit the system that has been so successful for Spain recently.
This makes Germany my choice for the whole tournament. Football seems to be increasingly won in central midfield now, and this is Germany’s major strength. For my money there is no better defensive midfielder than a fully fit Bastian Schweinsteiger, and he is coming back into Bayern Munich’s team now refreshed after a long spell out with injury. You then have Mesut Ozil as your flair in the middle, constantly probing opposition defences as well as an almost endless choice of small, quick forwards to choose from. There is also Real Madrid’s Sami Khedira as another more calming influence in the middle if that is needed, and his experience of winning the La Liga title, along with Ozil, will have them on a high coming in. You then have Mario Gomez likely to start with two from Marco Reus, Toni Kroos and Mario Goetze buzzing around him. Those three are amongst the most in-form players in Europe last season. Basically it has all come together at the right time for Germany to win, in my opinion.
Back Germany at 4.3 with Paddy Power.
To Reach The Semi Finals
An interesting market for those who like to back an outsider, but are not in it to trade if they progress. If you are a trader then I would still suggest backing the sides recommended here, but in the Winner market and then laying them on Betfair when you feel most comfortable getting your money in order.
With the Euros only being a 16 team tournament, there is more chance for an outsider to come through and do well due to the lower amount of matches. Nowhere can this be seen more clearly than Greece’s amazing triumph in the competition in 2004. In my eyes that was the start of a change in tournament football as other countries saw what can be achieved with a highly organised team. This combined with the better sides playing a higher possession based game has seen the number of goals scored in tournaments on the decrease. This increases the likelihood that a lesser team can scrape through to the Semi Finals, making this possibly an excellent market to be involved in.
My choice is Poland. Poland as joint hosts will benefit from great support in all their matches and they have been put in the easiest group of the lot in Group A. They will not find it easy to beat Greece(no one does)but Russia and the Czech Republic are both shadows of the sides they used to be. Poland also benefit from players coming into the tournament having had very good seasons for their club sides. Robert Lewandowski has scored twenty goals in the Bundesliga for Dortmund and is now being linked with a big move this summer. Szczesny of Arsenal in goal will be as confident as ever and that should spread through the side. You also have the likes of Blaszczykowski and Obraniak who have had fantastic seasons on the wings for Dortmund and Bordeaux respectively. I think they’re a great bet.
Back Poland at 6.5 with BetVictor.
Top Goalscorer
Another popular market is always Top Goalscorer. For the reasons outlined above though, I think it is becoming harder to pick one of the favourites at such short prices. There are very few matches where anyone is likely to rack up huge victories, and there could well be a tie for the winner. I usually look for a longer odds each way shot in this market, and I’ll be doing that again.
My method is usually to look for strikers who play as a lone striker, and who have been in good form in the past season. I think you can rule out Spain’s strikers, as they tend to share the goals around and I don’t think they’ll score many anyway. Lots of people are tipping Nikica Jelavic to shine for Croatia after a great season with both Rangers and Everton. Unfortunately they are in a group where goals will be at a premium and he is not a certain starter, so I’ll not be having him.
In Germany’s case, Mario Gomez will be likely to start on his own up front, but with goalscoring forwards around him I don’t think there’s any value in quotes of around 9.0 for him. I personally think a much better bet in the German squad is Marco Reus. The forward had a brilliant season with Monchengladbach and scored plenty of goals coming in from wide positions, as he will be expected to do for the national team. With my belief that Poland will go far and have a group where they could score goals, I would also pick out Robert Lewandowski as a good bet. He was one of the best strikers in Germany last season and Poland’s attack is basically built to supply him with chances.
Back Robert Lewandowski Each Way at 41.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Marco Reus Each Way at 51.0 with Ladbrokes.
I would say those are the main ones for now, I’ll be looking at the groups and will have my analysis for them online next week. Please feel free to use the comments section to ask about any markets you may have an eye on.
Thursday, 17 May 2012
All Still To Play For...
This weekend sees numerous play-offs in England as well as the Champions League final from Munich featuring Chelsea, plenty for English football watchers to get excited about. Play-off matches seem to either be thrillers or edgy, tactical matches, and this can be put down to the huge stakes riding on one match. If there is an early goal, you often see many more as the team behind has no real option but to go for it in the knowledge that there is everything to gain for such an approach. On the other hand, matches can become very stale if both sides refuse to take risks knowing that a slip up could cost them a whole seasons work. Personally, I find either sort of match fascinating so I'm thoroughly looking forward to all the games in store.
This week has seen two major stories concerning English football, the naming of a provisional squad for Euro 2012 and Kenny Dalglish's sacking from Liverpool. The only real talking point in the England squad is John Terry's inclusion, presumably at the expense of Rio Ferdinand. They clearly could not be taken together with the legal situation surrounding Terry's alleged racial abuse of Rio's brother Anton, so one man had to be left out. I think Roy Hodgson has got this call wrong, but at the end of the day the squad shows how far away England really are from being a force, with or without Rio. The likes of Lampard, Gerrard and Terry were not good enough at their peaks, surrounded by better players, to do anything of note with the national side, so they won't now either. To include Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is exciting, but to persist with the awful Glen Johnson and Stewart Downing should reign in any optimism left.
Dalglish flew out to Boston to meet Liverpool's owners on Wednesday, and paid the price for a horrendous league campaign with his job. With almost the entire back office team also having left, it seems clear that the owners want to start again, and probably distance themselves from the terrible PR that emanated from the club this season. The early news is Roberto Martinez is being interviewed to a mixed response from Pool fans. My opinion is that they wont do much better than him and they'd be well served getting behind him more than they did for Hodgson as it serves no purpose at all to behave like that. He may not win them the league any time soon, but the reality of the situation is that they are miles off and some good football would be a start for any revival they may make in future, Martinez should bring that at least.
Music comes from Roger Miret and The Disasters with Radio, Radio.
Champions League Final 2012
Bayern Munich v Chelsea, Saturday 1945
Europe's premier cup competition sees Bayern playing a 'home' match against Chelsea in the Allianz Arena. Bayern were mercilessly beaten last weekend in the German Cup final, and this has seen some suggesting that Chelsea could well have a chance. The fact that Bayern will have had one eye on this match and Dortmund are a brilliant side seems to have escaped these people. Bayern's strength is in midfield with Bastian Schweinsteiger dictating things and Robben and Ribery operating out wide. Shweinsteiger had been injured for much of the season, but has been back long enough now to be both fresh and match fit, seriously bad news for Chelsea. He is everything that England do not have in a central midfielder. He can pass, is mobile, quick and can be very disciplined if he is asked to play a more defensive role for the good of the side. Everyone knows about Robben and Ribery, they are two of the last true wingers left in football and a major reason why Mario Gomez scores so many. He is not the best football player you will ever see, but he is big and strong and has a knack of getting in the right positions to score. Defence is probably Bayern's weakness, but I would expect Chelsea to again rely very much upon Didier Drogba doing most of the attacking on his won with only Juan Mata offering support. If Schweinsteiger helps out, Bayern should cope.
Chelsea once again have a chance to win the trophy Roman Abramovich most craves. However comma they will have to do it the hard way with numerous injuries and suspensions, as well as playing in Munich. They currently have no fit or available centre halves, with Gary Cahill and David Luiz hoping to be passed fit on Saturday afternoon. John Terry managed to act like a complete idiot (huge surprise) and get himself needlessly sent off for booting Alexis Sanchez of Barcelona in the semi final. They will also be without probably their best player this season in Ramires. The Brazilian took a while to find his role in the team, but with most around him ageing rapidly and no longer able to get up and down, he is responsible for most of the energy in Chelsea's midfield. He has added an attacking threat to his game, which noone else in the Chelsea squad can replace. It seems likely Florent Malouda and/or Saloman Kalou will start, and neither will particularly worry Bayern. Their defence is going to be incredibly busy with Robben, Ribery and Gomez and I fail to see how they will stop them for 90 minutes. They offer a much more direct threat than Barcelona did, and this is enough for me to be behind the Germans.
Back Bayern Munich at 1.83 with SkyBet.
Championship Play-Off Final
West Ham v Blackpool, Saturday 1500
The game many now proclaim the 'richest in football' sees West Ham taking on Blackpool at Wembley on Saturday. The Hammers have had their poor spells this season, but they seem to be in a good run of form at just the right time for this match. They beat Cardiff 5-0 on aggregate in the semi finals and looked very much at a different level to their opponents the entire time. They will also benefit more than Blackpool playing at Wembley as their players have played more matches in big venues and they have often looked better away from Upton Park this season. The fans their are very passionate, but they are quick to criticise and with Sam Allardyce's less than appealing style of football they have voiced their displeasure when results have not gone their way. A team containing Rob Green, Mark Noble, Carlton Cole and Ricardo Vaz Te is a match for anyone below the Premier League and all have been in good form as the season ended. They should not be phased by the occasion and I can see them comfortably winning if they get an early goal.
Blackpool have a chance for an immediate return to the Premier League too after beating Birmingham in the semi finals. Ian Holloway has done an excellent job again at this level to get Blackpool back after losing important players like Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell leaving over the summer. Bringing in Tom Ince from Liverpool has provided flair and youthful exuberance on the wings when he is selected, and the bringing in of Kevin Phillips has yielded seventeen goals and brought experience to the squad. They have always been an attack minded side, and this was to their benefit against Birmingham as they managed to get valuable goals at St Andrews to progress. Birmingham do not possess the same calibre of attackers West Ham do though, and any spaces will be far more likely to be exploited if they show up on Saturday. I just think the large pitch, experience and class of West Ham is likely to show on Saturday and they will again be lining up in the Premier League next season.
Back West Ham at 2.0 with Stan James.
Blue Square League Play-Off Final
Luton Town v York City, Sunday 1500
The match to decide the team to join Fleetwood in league football has two of the perennial challengers in the Conference meeting at Wembley on Sunday. Luton are nearly always many peoples pick for promotion and have been favourites with the bookies in the last two seasons antepost market. I have mentioned both years that they should not be nearly as short priced as they are, but they will always be involved in the shake up. They have a large ground for the level, and can count on a good number of noisy fans backing them every week at home. This also gives them an advantage when attracting players as they have more money and can offer a club that is all set up to return to the league. They finished in the final play-off position with a run of six unbeaten matches, including five wins. They have a defence that only conceded two goals in the last seven matches, and they were when a very decent Wrexham side went after them in the semi final second leg. They are more than capable of keeping a side quiet and looking for a goal or two when the chance arises.
York are another side who seem to always be involved in the play-offs, but can't quiet get it done to gain promotion. They finished the regular season above Luton before drawing 1-1 and 0-0 in the semi finals against Mansfield to progress with an extra time goal to Wembley. They scored more than Luton, but also conceded more to leave them with an identical positive goal difference of +36. They were also unbeaten in their last six matches, eight including the play-offs, and only conceded the one goal in their last match with Mansfield. With neither side used to the big pitch, and relying on defences not conceding, this could be a very dull match for the neutral. Unfortunately neither side have a free scoring striker this season so it could well be won by a set piece or even go through to extra time.
Back Under 2 Goals Asian Totals at 2.37 with Bet365.
This week has seen two major stories concerning English football, the naming of a provisional squad for Euro 2012 and Kenny Dalglish's sacking from Liverpool. The only real talking point in the England squad is John Terry's inclusion, presumably at the expense of Rio Ferdinand. They clearly could not be taken together with the legal situation surrounding Terry's alleged racial abuse of Rio's brother Anton, so one man had to be left out. I think Roy Hodgson has got this call wrong, but at the end of the day the squad shows how far away England really are from being a force, with or without Rio. The likes of Lampard, Gerrard and Terry were not good enough at their peaks, surrounded by better players, to do anything of note with the national side, so they won't now either. To include Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is exciting, but to persist with the awful Glen Johnson and Stewart Downing should reign in any optimism left.
Dalglish flew out to Boston to meet Liverpool's owners on Wednesday, and paid the price for a horrendous league campaign with his job. With almost the entire back office team also having left, it seems clear that the owners want to start again, and probably distance themselves from the terrible PR that emanated from the club this season. The early news is Roberto Martinez is being interviewed to a mixed response from Pool fans. My opinion is that they wont do much better than him and they'd be well served getting behind him more than they did for Hodgson as it serves no purpose at all to behave like that. He may not win them the league any time soon, but the reality of the situation is that they are miles off and some good football would be a start for any revival they may make in future, Martinez should bring that at least.
Music comes from Roger Miret and The Disasters with Radio, Radio.
Champions League Final 2012
Bayern Munich v Chelsea, Saturday 1945
Europe's premier cup competition sees Bayern playing a 'home' match against Chelsea in the Allianz Arena. Bayern were mercilessly beaten last weekend in the German Cup final, and this has seen some suggesting that Chelsea could well have a chance. The fact that Bayern will have had one eye on this match and Dortmund are a brilliant side seems to have escaped these people. Bayern's strength is in midfield with Bastian Schweinsteiger dictating things and Robben and Ribery operating out wide. Shweinsteiger had been injured for much of the season, but has been back long enough now to be both fresh and match fit, seriously bad news for Chelsea. He is everything that England do not have in a central midfielder. He can pass, is mobile, quick and can be very disciplined if he is asked to play a more defensive role for the good of the side. Everyone knows about Robben and Ribery, they are two of the last true wingers left in football and a major reason why Mario Gomez scores so many. He is not the best football player you will ever see, but he is big and strong and has a knack of getting in the right positions to score. Defence is probably Bayern's weakness, but I would expect Chelsea to again rely very much upon Didier Drogba doing most of the attacking on his won with only Juan Mata offering support. If Schweinsteiger helps out, Bayern should cope.
Chelsea once again have a chance to win the trophy Roman Abramovich most craves. However comma they will have to do it the hard way with numerous injuries and suspensions, as well as playing in Munich. They currently have no fit or available centre halves, with Gary Cahill and David Luiz hoping to be passed fit on Saturday afternoon. John Terry managed to act like a complete idiot (huge surprise) and get himself needlessly sent off for booting Alexis Sanchez of Barcelona in the semi final. They will also be without probably their best player this season in Ramires. The Brazilian took a while to find his role in the team, but with most around him ageing rapidly and no longer able to get up and down, he is responsible for most of the energy in Chelsea's midfield. He has added an attacking threat to his game, which noone else in the Chelsea squad can replace. It seems likely Florent Malouda and/or Saloman Kalou will start, and neither will particularly worry Bayern. Their defence is going to be incredibly busy with Robben, Ribery and Gomez and I fail to see how they will stop them for 90 minutes. They offer a much more direct threat than Barcelona did, and this is enough for me to be behind the Germans.
Back Bayern Munich at 1.83 with SkyBet.
Championship Play-Off Final
West Ham v Blackpool, Saturday 1500
The game many now proclaim the 'richest in football' sees West Ham taking on Blackpool at Wembley on Saturday. The Hammers have had their poor spells this season, but they seem to be in a good run of form at just the right time for this match. They beat Cardiff 5-0 on aggregate in the semi finals and looked very much at a different level to their opponents the entire time. They will also benefit more than Blackpool playing at Wembley as their players have played more matches in big venues and they have often looked better away from Upton Park this season. The fans their are very passionate, but they are quick to criticise and with Sam Allardyce's less than appealing style of football they have voiced their displeasure when results have not gone their way. A team containing Rob Green, Mark Noble, Carlton Cole and Ricardo Vaz Te is a match for anyone below the Premier League and all have been in good form as the season ended. They should not be phased by the occasion and I can see them comfortably winning if they get an early goal.
Blackpool have a chance for an immediate return to the Premier League too after beating Birmingham in the semi finals. Ian Holloway has done an excellent job again at this level to get Blackpool back after losing important players like Charlie Adam and DJ Campbell leaving over the summer. Bringing in Tom Ince from Liverpool has provided flair and youthful exuberance on the wings when he is selected, and the bringing in of Kevin Phillips has yielded seventeen goals and brought experience to the squad. They have always been an attack minded side, and this was to their benefit against Birmingham as they managed to get valuable goals at St Andrews to progress. Birmingham do not possess the same calibre of attackers West Ham do though, and any spaces will be far more likely to be exploited if they show up on Saturday. I just think the large pitch, experience and class of West Ham is likely to show on Saturday and they will again be lining up in the Premier League next season.
Back West Ham at 2.0 with Stan James.
Blue Square League Play-Off Final
Luton Town v York City, Sunday 1500
The match to decide the team to join Fleetwood in league football has two of the perennial challengers in the Conference meeting at Wembley on Sunday. Luton are nearly always many peoples pick for promotion and have been favourites with the bookies in the last two seasons antepost market. I have mentioned both years that they should not be nearly as short priced as they are, but they will always be involved in the shake up. They have a large ground for the level, and can count on a good number of noisy fans backing them every week at home. This also gives them an advantage when attracting players as they have more money and can offer a club that is all set up to return to the league. They finished in the final play-off position with a run of six unbeaten matches, including five wins. They have a defence that only conceded two goals in the last seven matches, and they were when a very decent Wrexham side went after them in the semi final second leg. They are more than capable of keeping a side quiet and looking for a goal or two when the chance arises.
York are another side who seem to always be involved in the play-offs, but can't quiet get it done to gain promotion. They finished the regular season above Luton before drawing 1-1 and 0-0 in the semi finals against Mansfield to progress with an extra time goal to Wembley. They scored more than Luton, but also conceded more to leave them with an identical positive goal difference of +36. They were also unbeaten in their last six matches, eight including the play-offs, and only conceded the one goal in their last match with Mansfield. With neither side used to the big pitch, and relying on defences not conceding, this could be a very dull match for the neutral. Unfortunately neither side have a free scoring striker this season so it could well be won by a set piece or even go through to extra time.
Back Under 2 Goals Asian Totals at 2.37 with Bet365.
Friday, 11 May 2012
Last Chance Saloon...
This weekend sees most major European leagues wrapping things up for this season. Some things are already decided, Spain has crowned Real Madrid, Italy has Juventus and Germany Dortmund. There are also numerous teams relegated already, but there are still things to be decided. This is helpful for us as it is very difficult to have any certainty about matches where they are all but important to those playing in them.
Midweek has been very slow. We have seen Liverpool gain some sort of revenge on Chelsea for the FA Cup final by beating them 4-1 on Tuesday night. Chelsea naturally rested a number of players with the Champions League final in mind, and those that did play looked like they wanted to be anywhere else. John Terry in particular had an appalling match and has now been made as short as 1.25 to be left out of England's Euro 2012 squad. This is not entirely down to his fading powers, but is also with the consideration that with a charge of racial abuse still hanging over him as well as his generally odious personality it might not be brilliant for squad harmony if he went. Personally I would see it as no loss.
The other match of importance was the Europa League final in Bucharest on Wednesday night. I personally thought it would be an entertaining match, and for the most part it was. I also thought Bilbao were slightly over-priced, but unfortunately they lost to a Falcao inspired Atletico Madrid side. The Colombian has had another brilliant season both domestically and in Europe, probably pushing him high up the list for the likes of Man City and Chelsea this summer. Personally I think either Falcao or Cavani of Napoli would make City almost the complete side in England and would not be surprised at all to see one of them replace Edin Dzeko. Atleti won the match 3-0 and unfortunately for Bilbao nothing went right for them in attacking positions. After completely re-inventing themselves under Marcelo Bielsa and thrilling all of us this season it was a sad end to their campaign. Hopefully the side wont be completely broken up over the summer as another season should probably see them really gelling into an even better team.
Music comes from Social Distortion with their cover of Ring Of Fire.
Norwich v Aston Villa, Sunday 1500
Norwich end their impressive season with a home send off against Villa. They have been one of the more profitable sides to follow this season as the bookmakers seemed to consistently feel that they were soon to be found out of their depth. This, it turns out, was simply not the case. They have more than belonged in the countries top league this season, and the fact very few of their players had any experience at that level has been a good thing. Players like Grant Holt and Steve Morison have had to scrap their way up from many levels below and have relished the opportunity to perform against the best the country has to offer. They again upset the odds to draw 3-3 at Arsenal last Saturday and Holt again showed what a threat he can be. Premier League defenders do not generally like dealing with such a physical presence and willing runner. Villa will not be looking forward to this.
Villa extended their run of zero wins to thirteen matches by drawing 1-1 at home to Spurs last weekend. I have lamented Alex McCleish's tactics here before, but it is worth repeating. He sets his sides up almost as if a draw is a win to him, there is almost no intent to attack at all. They have no less than 7 men behind the ball at all times starving the opposition of space and chances and simply try to occasionally lump a ball at their forwards or try for a set-piece. This approach will see them relegated next season, I have no doubt about that. The players are even speaking out now and if they stop putting in the effort they'll be doomed. They have stayed up now and I would expect them to slack of now they are assured of another season, Norwich should capitalise on this.
Back Norwich at 2.25 with BoyleSports.
Manchester City v QPR, Sunday 1500
This Sunday sees the Manchester clubs kicking off knowing a City win will all but assure them of their first title in 44 years. I must admit that I would prefer to see them win it to United. This is as I would hate to see United rest on their laurels with the current squad, I'd like to see some new faces brought in. I would also like to see who City could attract if they had the fact they are champions to use as a selling point. Not supporting a Premier League side these are both selfish points from the view of a neutral onlooker! City have been in awesome form of late and that seems to largely be down to Yaya Toure dominating games for them. It seems Mancini has recognised there are very few midfields that can cope with him when he marauds through towards goal. This faith has been rewarded with three goals in his last two matches, and decisive goals at that.
QPR will be portrayed as trying to gain some form of 'revenge' for Mark Hughes sacking from City two years ago. The fact the media still seem upset baffles me personally, Mancini has improved City immeasurably and therefore improved the league too. QPR have been absolutely dire away from Loftus Road this season, even after their January spending spree. They have managed to get right down to the wire in terms of fighting to stay up, but even this turnaround has not covered away matches. They might have it all to play for, but they will lose this and be looking out for other results whilst City celebrate the title.
Back Yaya Toure to score anytime at 2.87 with Stan James.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich, Saturday 1900
Dortmund wrapped up the Bundesliga title a couple of weeks ago now and have the chance to compound Bayern's misery by doing the double by beating them. They have been on a frankly sensational record-breaking run unbeaten in the league that now stretches back to before the winter break. Whilst they can sometimes look like scoring is a challenge when the players are tired, they do look unbeatable at the moment. This should not be a problem anyway with them having had a full week to rest after last weekends final league match. Factor in the likes of Shinji Kagawa and Robert Lewandowski possibly playing in their last match, and they should not lack any motivation to win the cup.
Bayern have not looked anything like the side that has made the Champions League final for spells this season. They can beat a side by six one week, but then struggle for goals the next. The trick to bettering them seems to be in holding out for as long as possible and watching them grow frustrated. The longer it takes for the first goal, it seems a lot less likely it will ever come. Mario Gomez might have scored a bucketful this season, but he is the definition of a flat-track-bully. He has no outstanding qualities I can see and will not be the man to win you a game on his own. They also have the vastly more important matter of the Champions League final against Chelsea the following weekend so I would not be surprised if they do not treat this as the be all and end all it might otherwise have become.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 2.9 with BetVictor.
Fenerbahce v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
It has all come down to the last match of the season in the Super Lig. And what a match for the decider to be! It will be Gala's title if they avoid defeat, but Fener know winning will have them come from a long way back to snatch it on the last day. Fener have been resurgent lately, and they have had to do it without their two best players in Alex Da Souza and Moussa Sow. Alex is club captain and will go down as a legend at the club having stayed and provided flair and goals from midfield for a number of years now. Moussa Sow has again shown that a class act will find goals easy to come by in what can be a very defensively naive league at times. There is a small chance Alex will return for this match, but Sow will most likely be missing, robbing them of their biggest goal threat by far.
Gala really only have themselves to blame for the title going this far. They have managed to let Fener back in with back to back terrible results. None more so than last week when they were 2-0 up and coasting against Besiktas, only to let them back in the match for a 2-2 draw. This has been blamed on the absence of their hugely influential manager Fatih Terim being absent from the dugout due to suspension and he will return for this match after serving his ban. They have the best team in the league by a large margin and if they settle early should be able to get the draw they need. They also proved that they can react to adversity when they came back from 2-0 at Fener earlier in the season to snatch a 2-2 draw.
Back the Draw at 3.5 with Bet365.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1400
Istanbul BB v Bursaspor, Saturday 1400
In the Europa League play-off it is still all to play for heading into the last matches. So far all bar one home match have been won by the home teams in this mini league, and I see no reason for that not to again be the case. Eskisehir will definitely make it tough for Sivass, but their relentless attacking should breach Eskisehir's mean defence at some point with them desperate for a win.
Back Sivasspor at 3.0 with BetVictor.
Back Istanbul BB at 2.1 with Coral.
Sorry it is so short this week. Time constraints and a lack of team news means I'm not desperate to stick my neck on the line for any other matches at present. Be sure to follow @TopTopTips on the Twitter though as more tips may be posted as the weekend progresses.
Midweek has been very slow. We have seen Liverpool gain some sort of revenge on Chelsea for the FA Cup final by beating them 4-1 on Tuesday night. Chelsea naturally rested a number of players with the Champions League final in mind, and those that did play looked like they wanted to be anywhere else. John Terry in particular had an appalling match and has now been made as short as 1.25 to be left out of England's Euro 2012 squad. This is not entirely down to his fading powers, but is also with the consideration that with a charge of racial abuse still hanging over him as well as his generally odious personality it might not be brilliant for squad harmony if he went. Personally I would see it as no loss.
The other match of importance was the Europa League final in Bucharest on Wednesday night. I personally thought it would be an entertaining match, and for the most part it was. I also thought Bilbao were slightly over-priced, but unfortunately they lost to a Falcao inspired Atletico Madrid side. The Colombian has had another brilliant season both domestically and in Europe, probably pushing him high up the list for the likes of Man City and Chelsea this summer. Personally I think either Falcao or Cavani of Napoli would make City almost the complete side in England and would not be surprised at all to see one of them replace Edin Dzeko. Atleti won the match 3-0 and unfortunately for Bilbao nothing went right for them in attacking positions. After completely re-inventing themselves under Marcelo Bielsa and thrilling all of us this season it was a sad end to their campaign. Hopefully the side wont be completely broken up over the summer as another season should probably see them really gelling into an even better team.
Music comes from Social Distortion with their cover of Ring Of Fire.
Norwich v Aston Villa, Sunday 1500
Norwich end their impressive season with a home send off against Villa. They have been one of the more profitable sides to follow this season as the bookmakers seemed to consistently feel that they were soon to be found out of their depth. This, it turns out, was simply not the case. They have more than belonged in the countries top league this season, and the fact very few of their players had any experience at that level has been a good thing. Players like Grant Holt and Steve Morison have had to scrap their way up from many levels below and have relished the opportunity to perform against the best the country has to offer. They again upset the odds to draw 3-3 at Arsenal last Saturday and Holt again showed what a threat he can be. Premier League defenders do not generally like dealing with such a physical presence and willing runner. Villa will not be looking forward to this.
Villa extended their run of zero wins to thirteen matches by drawing 1-1 at home to Spurs last weekend. I have lamented Alex McCleish's tactics here before, but it is worth repeating. He sets his sides up almost as if a draw is a win to him, there is almost no intent to attack at all. They have no less than 7 men behind the ball at all times starving the opposition of space and chances and simply try to occasionally lump a ball at their forwards or try for a set-piece. This approach will see them relegated next season, I have no doubt about that. The players are even speaking out now and if they stop putting in the effort they'll be doomed. They have stayed up now and I would expect them to slack of now they are assured of another season, Norwich should capitalise on this.
Back Norwich at 2.25 with BoyleSports.
Manchester City v QPR, Sunday 1500
This Sunday sees the Manchester clubs kicking off knowing a City win will all but assure them of their first title in 44 years. I must admit that I would prefer to see them win it to United. This is as I would hate to see United rest on their laurels with the current squad, I'd like to see some new faces brought in. I would also like to see who City could attract if they had the fact they are champions to use as a selling point. Not supporting a Premier League side these are both selfish points from the view of a neutral onlooker! City have been in awesome form of late and that seems to largely be down to Yaya Toure dominating games for them. It seems Mancini has recognised there are very few midfields that can cope with him when he marauds through towards goal. This faith has been rewarded with three goals in his last two matches, and decisive goals at that.
QPR will be portrayed as trying to gain some form of 'revenge' for Mark Hughes sacking from City two years ago. The fact the media still seem upset baffles me personally, Mancini has improved City immeasurably and therefore improved the league too. QPR have been absolutely dire away from Loftus Road this season, even after their January spending spree. They have managed to get right down to the wire in terms of fighting to stay up, but even this turnaround has not covered away matches. They might have it all to play for, but they will lose this and be looking out for other results whilst City celebrate the title.
Back Yaya Toure to score anytime at 2.87 with Stan James.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich, Saturday 1900
Dortmund wrapped up the Bundesliga title a couple of weeks ago now and have the chance to compound Bayern's misery by doing the double by beating them. They have been on a frankly sensational record-breaking run unbeaten in the league that now stretches back to before the winter break. Whilst they can sometimes look like scoring is a challenge when the players are tired, they do look unbeatable at the moment. This should not be a problem anyway with them having had a full week to rest after last weekends final league match. Factor in the likes of Shinji Kagawa and Robert Lewandowski possibly playing in their last match, and they should not lack any motivation to win the cup.
Bayern have not looked anything like the side that has made the Champions League final for spells this season. They can beat a side by six one week, but then struggle for goals the next. The trick to bettering them seems to be in holding out for as long as possible and watching them grow frustrated. The longer it takes for the first goal, it seems a lot less likely it will ever come. Mario Gomez might have scored a bucketful this season, but he is the definition of a flat-track-bully. He has no outstanding qualities I can see and will not be the man to win you a game on his own. They also have the vastly more important matter of the Champions League final against Chelsea the following weekend so I would not be surprised if they do not treat this as the be all and end all it might otherwise have become.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 2.9 with BetVictor.
Fenerbahce v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
It has all come down to the last match of the season in the Super Lig. And what a match for the decider to be! It will be Gala's title if they avoid defeat, but Fener know winning will have them come from a long way back to snatch it on the last day. Fener have been resurgent lately, and they have had to do it without their two best players in Alex Da Souza and Moussa Sow. Alex is club captain and will go down as a legend at the club having stayed and provided flair and goals from midfield for a number of years now. Moussa Sow has again shown that a class act will find goals easy to come by in what can be a very defensively naive league at times. There is a small chance Alex will return for this match, but Sow will most likely be missing, robbing them of their biggest goal threat by far.
Gala really only have themselves to blame for the title going this far. They have managed to let Fener back in with back to back terrible results. None more so than last week when they were 2-0 up and coasting against Besiktas, only to let them back in the match for a 2-2 draw. This has been blamed on the absence of their hugely influential manager Fatih Terim being absent from the dugout due to suspension and he will return for this match after serving his ban. They have the best team in the league by a large margin and if they settle early should be able to get the draw they need. They also proved that they can react to adversity when they came back from 2-0 at Fener earlier in the season to snatch a 2-2 draw.
Back the Draw at 3.5 with Bet365.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1400
Istanbul BB v Bursaspor, Saturday 1400
In the Europa League play-off it is still all to play for heading into the last matches. So far all bar one home match have been won by the home teams in this mini league, and I see no reason for that not to again be the case. Eskisehir will definitely make it tough for Sivass, but their relentless attacking should breach Eskisehir's mean defence at some point with them desperate for a win.
Back Sivasspor at 3.0 with BetVictor.
Back Istanbul BB at 2.1 with Coral.
Sorry it is so short this week. Time constraints and a lack of team news means I'm not desperate to stick my neck on the line for any other matches at present. Be sure to follow @TopTopTips on the Twitter though as more tips may be posted as the weekend progresses.
Friday, 4 May 2012
Let The Good Times Roll...
A more profitable weekend for followers last time out than we have had for a while now. With Manchester City also coming in on Monday as tipped on Twitter it made it a successful few days. For those that do now follow @TopTopTips on Twitter, you will have also made some money from laying Chelsea midweek at a frankly ludicrous 1.5 at home to Newcastle. Whilst Newcastle had been well beaten by Wigan last weekend, they are still the fourth best side in the country this season and should have been far shorter in odds.
The Manchester derby was an obvious bet as soon as the teamsheets were made available to us. Sir Alex Ferguson had clearly sent a team out in the desperate hope he could pack the midfield and play out a bore draw. This had the desired effect in that it made the match no fun for anyone hoping for a goalfest, but sadly left United unable to mount any sort of comeback once they fell behind. A midfield of Park, Scholes, Giggs, Carrick and Nani was outplayed by City for the most part, and none of them could compete with Yaya Toure's athleticism. The league will now come down to whether City can hold their nerve and win both their remaining fixtures to take the title.
Music comes from The Cribs with Hey Scenesters!
FA Cup Final 2012
Chelsea v Liverpool, Saturday 1715
Two teams who have disappointed for long spells this season meet in the FA Cup final looking to end the season on a high. Chelsea looked awful under Andre Villas Boas and have been much improved since Di Matteo took charge. I still think this is due to the senior players taking it upon themselves to oust the man who was looking to the future of the club without them in it. The marked improvement of messrs Lampard and Drogba in particular of late would seem to back this conspiracy theory. But, for us betting the reason isn't hugely important as they are now raising their game for the big matches and this is certainly one of those. The Champions League Semi Final against Barcelona should be a turning point in their season after the amazing performance over two legs in holding them off for the most part. Losing to Newcastle midweek was a setback, but Newcastle have proven what a good side they are and it took two brilliant goals to beat a stubborn Chelsea side.
Liverpool have appeared in the column numerous times due to their wretched season in the league. They have already won the Carling Cup and are now looking to also take the FA Cup and cling to the belief that this means they're a decent side. Anyone who has watched them as a neutral should be able to see where their problems lie. They lack a competent, clinical finisher, they have no pace an little width and they have overspent so much that there probably is not a lot of hope of another big spending summer to rectify the mistakes. Whilst Andy Carroll has not been brilliant, the worst signings have to be Stewart Downing and Charlie Adam. Brought in for a combined thirty odd million, they have added nothing at all to Liverpool so far and look unlikely to any time soon. It goes without saying that Liverpool have managed to eke out performances in one off cup matches this season, but if Chelsea play anything like to their potential, they win this easily.
Back Chelsea at 2.5 with BlueSq.
Aston Villa v Tottenham, Sunday 1400
Villa have been absolutely horrendous this season and unfortunately it now looks likely that they will survive and give everyone another dose of their hopelessness under McCleish next season. His tactics of playing with one forward and every other man behind the ball is a waste of many talented players in their squad as well as dreadful for those unfortunate enough to support the club. The news this morning is that about five Villa players have been fined for an incident in a nightclub and that will surely demoralise an already lacking squad. I would imagine now they're safe they will probably just be giving up and trying to forget this season ever happened.
Spurs have been portrayed as now being back in form as the England managers job has been given to Roy Hodgson and they beat Bolton away on Wednesday. Truth is that they were again far from their early season form, and they were playing a Bolton side who may still yet go down this season. I keep repeating that Tottenham's tail-off is for two main reasons, both of which are mainly down to Harry Redknapp. First is the ridiculous lack of rotation of players, leaving key men like Luka Modric absolutely knackered and unable to dictate games. The second is his lack of tactical instruction. This is often said to be a positive when things are going well, but should also be used as a criticism when they aren't. Gareth Bale seems to now think he is allowed a free role, when his attributes really only suit him to being on the wing, and Redknapp should have instructed him to stay wide or left him out. He keeps popping up in central areas and getting in everyone's way. I think they will still have far too much for a Villa side playing as they are.
Back Tottenham at 1.9 with BetFred.
Atletico Madrid v Malaga, Saturday 2000
Atleti have had their usual ups and downs this season, but they can still win the Europa League and qualify for Europe once again via the league. Early on after appointing Diego Simeone as manager midway through the season they began to keep clean sheets and look a lot more organised. This has now slightly altered with them reverting to type, especially away from home. At home they go ten wins, five draws and three losses with thirty four scored and only sixteen conceded. This really is some record and is a huge part of why they sit in sixth despite some very disappointing reslts away from home. With the likes of Falcao in the side they always pose a goal threat, and most of the players should be playing with a Europa League final starting XI place in mind. This should motivate them enough to get another win in their last home match of the season.
Malaga are the leagues richest team outside of the big two. They were bought out with oil money two years ago and have so far been fairly sensible in investing in the side with no ridiculous signings so far. Manuel Pellegrini has again showed what a good manager he is in taking all the new players and moulding them into a good side, but sadly they are still inconsistent. They are clinging on to the last Champions League spot in Spain at present, but looked dreadful against Barcelona in midweek. Whilst Barca are obviously a brilliant side, Malaga made things far too easy for them with terrible defending at times. Away from home they go four wins, four draws and ten losses. This is the main reason they have been unable to solidify their fourth spot and are still worried about clinging on two matches from the end of the season. I think they may well struggle again in this one.
Back Atletico Madrid at 2.05 with BetVictor.
Atalanta v Lazio, Sunday 1400
Atalanta are comfortable in midtable this season and will be very happy with that. They are a very well drilled side who base their game upon a tight defence and trying to nick a goal to win matches. They have been particularly good at home where that approach has seen them ship only thirteen goals in eighteen matches. Their home record in full is won nine, drawn six and only lost three. Whilst they were beaten by AC Milan in midweek, they held them to a single goal at the San Siro until very late on when they added a second. In the two matches before that though they had beaten both Chievo and Fiorentina to nil at home to again back up how good they are at home.
Lazio's season has seen them challenging for a Champions League spot, but they now look like injuries will see them fall short. The main problem has been that they concede far too many away from Rome. In their eighteen away matches they have only drawn two, whilst winning seven and losing nine. They have scored twenty six, but conceded a whopping thirty one. This has made them very unpredictable most weekends. However comma with Henrique and Klose missing at present it is far more likely they'll struggle to score. They are without a win in seven and worth taking on here.
Back Atalanta at 2.6 with Ladbrokes.
Udinese v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Udinese have not featured so much in my tips in the second half of the season. This has been due to them struggling with a long season and a small squad taking effect. They look a far more threatening side when Antonio Di Natale is playing, but due to his age and bad knees he is having to pick and choose his matches now. They currently sit in fourth, level on points with Napoli, but needing to score a lot to give themselves the best chance of qualifying for the Champions League in third spot. In eighteen home matches they have won twelve, drawn six and only lost two whilst scoring thirty one and only conceding thirteen. They should beat a struggling Genoa side with ease.
Genoa have managed to slip a long way this season. Their chairman's policy of selling off every half decent player they have had in the last five years has unsurprisingly left them lacking in quality. Their ultras halted a match last weekend to have it out with the players about their poor performances. They still lost that match 4-1 and have then lost the nest two matches before finally getting a win in midweek at home to Cagliari. They have been very poor away from home with a record of won only two, drawn three and lost thirteen. They have scored twenty one, but have conceded a huge forty three to leave them staring at relegation still.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.13 with BetVictor.
Eskisehirspor v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1300
In the Europa League play-offs in Turkey it is still all to play for with two matches remaining. Eskisehirspor sit in third in the four team mini table, but can go ahead of Istanbul BB if they beat them in this. They have shown in the last two seasons that their home form is great and that they are adept at shutting teams down and not conceding. In their four play-off matches so far they have conceded the least of all their fellow competitors with just five, and only one of those at home. They drew the same match in Istabul in their first play-off match and they should fancy their chances of going one better as they have also scored in every match.
Istanbul BB currently sit top of the mini league, but there is only three points between top and bottom. They have conceded in every match so far though and must be worried about that statistic. They got a great win at Sivasspor in midweek with a ninetieth minute goal from Pierre Webo deciding it. They were again exposed numerous times though and against a team who can keep them quiet as well as Eskisehir can they may well struggle. They also keep picking up bookings and that lack of discipline will not help if Eskisehir can frustrate them.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.1 with SportingBet.
Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1700
The title deciding mini league looked like it had hotted up after Galatasaray failed to beat Trabzonspor at home on Wednesday evening. However comma Fener failed to capitalise and lost to Besiktas on Thursday to leave them again three points of Gala on top with two matches to play. First up is Trabzon. The match fixing scandal that was exposed after Fener beat Trabzon to the Super Lig last season has understandably given extra needle to matches between the two sides now. Trabzon will know that a loss in this match for Fener will almost certainly hand the title to Gala and should be extra motivated to do that. With Buruk Yilmaz also likely to return to the line up they have every chance.
As mentioned Fener will be extremely disappointed to have lost to Besiktas in midweek. They have missed key man Alex Da Silva the last couple of matches and are now also waiting on the fitness of star striker Moussa Sow. They really do not have anyone who can step into the side with the class and quality of either of those and if they are missing they will really struggle again. Even with both of them playing though they will find it very hard to beat a Trabzon side who have been very good at home all season. Trabzon have only lost at home once since xmas and the tow sides drew 1-1 a few weeks ago in the regular season. A repeat of that is not unlikely.
Back Trabzonspor Draw No Bet at 2.1 with SportingBet.
The Manchester derby was an obvious bet as soon as the teamsheets were made available to us. Sir Alex Ferguson had clearly sent a team out in the desperate hope he could pack the midfield and play out a bore draw. This had the desired effect in that it made the match no fun for anyone hoping for a goalfest, but sadly left United unable to mount any sort of comeback once they fell behind. A midfield of Park, Scholes, Giggs, Carrick and Nani was outplayed by City for the most part, and none of them could compete with Yaya Toure's athleticism. The league will now come down to whether City can hold their nerve and win both their remaining fixtures to take the title.
Music comes from The Cribs with Hey Scenesters!
FA Cup Final 2012
Chelsea v Liverpool, Saturday 1715
Two teams who have disappointed for long spells this season meet in the FA Cup final looking to end the season on a high. Chelsea looked awful under Andre Villas Boas and have been much improved since Di Matteo took charge. I still think this is due to the senior players taking it upon themselves to oust the man who was looking to the future of the club without them in it. The marked improvement of messrs Lampard and Drogba in particular of late would seem to back this conspiracy theory. But, for us betting the reason isn't hugely important as they are now raising their game for the big matches and this is certainly one of those. The Champions League Semi Final against Barcelona should be a turning point in their season after the amazing performance over two legs in holding them off for the most part. Losing to Newcastle midweek was a setback, but Newcastle have proven what a good side they are and it took two brilliant goals to beat a stubborn Chelsea side.
Liverpool have appeared in the column numerous times due to their wretched season in the league. They have already won the Carling Cup and are now looking to also take the FA Cup and cling to the belief that this means they're a decent side. Anyone who has watched them as a neutral should be able to see where their problems lie. They lack a competent, clinical finisher, they have no pace an little width and they have overspent so much that there probably is not a lot of hope of another big spending summer to rectify the mistakes. Whilst Andy Carroll has not been brilliant, the worst signings have to be Stewart Downing and Charlie Adam. Brought in for a combined thirty odd million, they have added nothing at all to Liverpool so far and look unlikely to any time soon. It goes without saying that Liverpool have managed to eke out performances in one off cup matches this season, but if Chelsea play anything like to their potential, they win this easily.
Back Chelsea at 2.5 with BlueSq.
Aston Villa v Tottenham, Sunday 1400
Villa have been absolutely horrendous this season and unfortunately it now looks likely that they will survive and give everyone another dose of their hopelessness under McCleish next season. His tactics of playing with one forward and every other man behind the ball is a waste of many talented players in their squad as well as dreadful for those unfortunate enough to support the club. The news this morning is that about five Villa players have been fined for an incident in a nightclub and that will surely demoralise an already lacking squad. I would imagine now they're safe they will probably just be giving up and trying to forget this season ever happened.
Spurs have been portrayed as now being back in form as the England managers job has been given to Roy Hodgson and they beat Bolton away on Wednesday. Truth is that they were again far from their early season form, and they were playing a Bolton side who may still yet go down this season. I keep repeating that Tottenham's tail-off is for two main reasons, both of which are mainly down to Harry Redknapp. First is the ridiculous lack of rotation of players, leaving key men like Luka Modric absolutely knackered and unable to dictate games. The second is his lack of tactical instruction. This is often said to be a positive when things are going well, but should also be used as a criticism when they aren't. Gareth Bale seems to now think he is allowed a free role, when his attributes really only suit him to being on the wing, and Redknapp should have instructed him to stay wide or left him out. He keeps popping up in central areas and getting in everyone's way. I think they will still have far too much for a Villa side playing as they are.
Back Tottenham at 1.9 with BetFred.
Atletico Madrid v Malaga, Saturday 2000
Atleti have had their usual ups and downs this season, but they can still win the Europa League and qualify for Europe once again via the league. Early on after appointing Diego Simeone as manager midway through the season they began to keep clean sheets and look a lot more organised. This has now slightly altered with them reverting to type, especially away from home. At home they go ten wins, five draws and three losses with thirty four scored and only sixteen conceded. This really is some record and is a huge part of why they sit in sixth despite some very disappointing reslts away from home. With the likes of Falcao in the side they always pose a goal threat, and most of the players should be playing with a Europa League final starting XI place in mind. This should motivate them enough to get another win in their last home match of the season.
Malaga are the leagues richest team outside of the big two. They were bought out with oil money two years ago and have so far been fairly sensible in investing in the side with no ridiculous signings so far. Manuel Pellegrini has again showed what a good manager he is in taking all the new players and moulding them into a good side, but sadly they are still inconsistent. They are clinging on to the last Champions League spot in Spain at present, but looked dreadful against Barcelona in midweek. Whilst Barca are obviously a brilliant side, Malaga made things far too easy for them with terrible defending at times. Away from home they go four wins, four draws and ten losses. This is the main reason they have been unable to solidify their fourth spot and are still worried about clinging on two matches from the end of the season. I think they may well struggle again in this one.
Back Atletico Madrid at 2.05 with BetVictor.
Atalanta v Lazio, Sunday 1400
Atalanta are comfortable in midtable this season and will be very happy with that. They are a very well drilled side who base their game upon a tight defence and trying to nick a goal to win matches. They have been particularly good at home where that approach has seen them ship only thirteen goals in eighteen matches. Their home record in full is won nine, drawn six and only lost three. Whilst they were beaten by AC Milan in midweek, they held them to a single goal at the San Siro until very late on when they added a second. In the two matches before that though they had beaten both Chievo and Fiorentina to nil at home to again back up how good they are at home.
Lazio's season has seen them challenging for a Champions League spot, but they now look like injuries will see them fall short. The main problem has been that they concede far too many away from Rome. In their eighteen away matches they have only drawn two, whilst winning seven and losing nine. They have scored twenty six, but conceded a whopping thirty one. This has made them very unpredictable most weekends. However comma with Henrique and Klose missing at present it is far more likely they'll struggle to score. They are without a win in seven and worth taking on here.
Back Atalanta at 2.6 with Ladbrokes.
Udinese v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Udinese have not featured so much in my tips in the second half of the season. This has been due to them struggling with a long season and a small squad taking effect. They look a far more threatening side when Antonio Di Natale is playing, but due to his age and bad knees he is having to pick and choose his matches now. They currently sit in fourth, level on points with Napoli, but needing to score a lot to give themselves the best chance of qualifying for the Champions League in third spot. In eighteen home matches they have won twelve, drawn six and only lost two whilst scoring thirty one and only conceding thirteen. They should beat a struggling Genoa side with ease.
Genoa have managed to slip a long way this season. Their chairman's policy of selling off every half decent player they have had in the last five years has unsurprisingly left them lacking in quality. Their ultras halted a match last weekend to have it out with the players about their poor performances. They still lost that match 4-1 and have then lost the nest two matches before finally getting a win in midweek at home to Cagliari. They have been very poor away from home with a record of won only two, drawn three and lost thirteen. They have scored twenty one, but have conceded a huge forty three to leave them staring at relegation still.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.13 with BetVictor.
Eskisehirspor v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1300
In the Europa League play-offs in Turkey it is still all to play for with two matches remaining. Eskisehirspor sit in third in the four team mini table, but can go ahead of Istanbul BB if they beat them in this. They have shown in the last two seasons that their home form is great and that they are adept at shutting teams down and not conceding. In their four play-off matches so far they have conceded the least of all their fellow competitors with just five, and only one of those at home. They drew the same match in Istabul in their first play-off match and they should fancy their chances of going one better as they have also scored in every match.
Istanbul BB currently sit top of the mini league, but there is only three points between top and bottom. They have conceded in every match so far though and must be worried about that statistic. They got a great win at Sivasspor in midweek with a ninetieth minute goal from Pierre Webo deciding it. They were again exposed numerous times though and against a team who can keep them quiet as well as Eskisehir can they may well struggle. They also keep picking up bookings and that lack of discipline will not help if Eskisehir can frustrate them.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.1 with SportingBet.
Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1700
The title deciding mini league looked like it had hotted up after Galatasaray failed to beat Trabzonspor at home on Wednesday evening. However comma Fener failed to capitalise and lost to Besiktas on Thursday to leave them again three points of Gala on top with two matches to play. First up is Trabzon. The match fixing scandal that was exposed after Fener beat Trabzon to the Super Lig last season has understandably given extra needle to matches between the two sides now. Trabzon will know that a loss in this match for Fener will almost certainly hand the title to Gala and should be extra motivated to do that. With Buruk Yilmaz also likely to return to the line up they have every chance.
As mentioned Fener will be extremely disappointed to have lost to Besiktas in midweek. They have missed key man Alex Da Silva the last couple of matches and are now also waiting on the fitness of star striker Moussa Sow. They really do not have anyone who can step into the side with the class and quality of either of those and if they are missing they will really struggle again. Even with both of them playing though they will find it very hard to beat a Trabzon side who have been very good at home all season. Trabzon have only lost at home once since xmas and the tow sides drew 1-1 a few weeks ago in the regular season. A repeat of that is not unlikely.
Back Trabzonspor Draw No Bet at 2.1 with SportingBet.
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