Last weekend saw a very decent profit after a few weeks of either small losses or small wins keeping us ticking over. Those of you that also follow me on the Twitter, @TopTopTips, will also have seen me post three out of three winners in the midweek Champions League matches. These were advising backing Napoli, backing Marseille and laying Bayern Munich.
Talking of opposing Chelsea, they were very poor again for long spells of their match. The away goal keeps them in the tie, but with Napoli at their best on the counter attack it will take a lot to stop them scoring again at Stamford Bridge. After an early goal from one of their few players to shine this season in Juan Mata, Chelsea again failed to deal with an attack that was not short of movement or pace. In truth, the lack of John Terry would probably have meant very little against an attack such as Napoli's. He would have possibly added slightly more organisation, but his lack of pace would have left them exposed anyway. I will not be calling for Villas Boas head, as it's easy money laying them at the moment, but also because he is trying to correct the error of not looking to lower the age of the side for a number of years. He is also seemingly fighting against the old core of Lampard and Terry not being at all pleased with the fact they are becoming increasingly dispensable to the new manager.
Music comes from Junior Battles with Nostalgic at 23.
Newcastle v Wolves, Saturday 1500
Newcastle host Wolves this Saturday still without a manager. It is becoming very embarrassing for the side from Molineux with a host of managers turning them down and now having to appoint Big Mick's assistant on a full time basis for the remainder of the season. Newcastle, on the other hand, have recovered from a small blip before xmas to again make a surge for European football next season. They may not have a large squad, but the addition of Papiss Cisse gives them cover for their most important player, Demba Ba. The two can also play together, forming a strike partnership that is equal to many a 'bigger' club. You only have to look at Arsenal to see that. The midfield pairing of Yohann Cabaye and Cheik Tiote could also be argued to be the best outside of Man City's first choice pairing. The doubts surrounding Alan Pardew, and to some extent Mike Ashley, have subsided slightly for the Geordie Nation.
As mentioned, Wolves are in a right state. They have now appointed a man with no previous experience to try and guide currently the worse side in the division to safety. The goals have dried up and the defence has looked like they've never met before at times, poor Wayne Hennessey looks lost behind them. I fail to see how they can turn it around, particularly on the back of the 5-1 thrashing handed out by neighbours WBA last weekend in the Black Country Derby. They look headed for another spell in the Championship, and on the back of their performances, it's where they belong.
Back Newcastle United -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.1 with Paddy Power.
Man City v Blackburn, Saturday 1730
A comfortable victory over Porto in the Europa League sees Man City progress with little needless energy expended. We could also yet see the return of Carlos Tevez to the side if he regains match fitness after he finally apologised for his appallong behaviour against Bayern Munich earlier in the season. City again look to me like they are going to storm off with the Premier League. The return of Vincent Kompany steadies the defence, Yaya Toure returning from the AFCON sees the midfield given extra energy and purpose and Sergio Aguero looks like he's in a good place again. Even Edin Dzeko is notching the odd goal! They have been known to take a while to get going this season and have often added numerous late goals as against Porto in midweek.
Blackburn are not quite as bad as I have occasionally made out. The calls for the head of manager Steve Kean have become less in recent weeks as regardless of anything else, it is clear the players are playing for him. The blame for the catastrophic signings and poor PR is rightly being pushed towards the owners, Venky's, and this leaves a better atmosphere at Ewood Park. The rather big-boned Yakubu has seemingly also rediscovered his scoring touch this season and provides the goal threat many clubs strugging seem to miss. I still think they'll end up in trouble, but they might yet have enough to survive.
Back Second Half Most Goals at 2.1 with Stan James.
Real Betis v Getafe, Saturday 1700
From Spain this weekend we see Getafe travelling to one of the madder clubs in La Liga. Betis have always revelled in their image of being slightly eccentric and the fans take this to extremes in most matches. This does provide a good atmosphere for the home side too. Having re-ascended to the Primera this season Betis have been a bit up and down, which is the same of nearly every other club. At present they are in an 'up' phase with wins in their last two matches. The away win in Bilbao will particularly have given them a boost as it is a very hard place to get a positive result. The striker Castro also looks full of confidence and will fancy himself against Getafe's brittle defence.
Getafe have also had a topsy turvy season with home form being as good as it usually is, but away form letting them down a lot. In twelve away matches they have lost seven and conceded twenty two goals. Their home stadium is a compact bowl and often devoid of noise, it's eerie, and teams don't like the trip there. The chronic lack of investment and cost cutting sees them with a paper thin squad of players, and without that advantage they have at home, they can all too easily be taken apart away. They have also not win in three matches now.
Back Real Betis at 2.1 with Blue Square.
AC Milan v Juventus, Saturday 1945
A huge match in Serie A this weekend sees first place AC hosting second in the table Juve. We all saw what AC are capable of in the hiding they dished out to Arsenal last week in the Champions League. When players like Ibrahimovic and Robinho are fit and in the mood they are quite some prospect. Throw in the likes of the reborn Kevin Prince-Boateng and commanding Thiago Silva at central midfield and centre back respectively and you have a very good side. They have spent the majority of the season at the top of Serie A, and it is their strikeforce that has been the difference. They have scored forty eight goals in twenty four matches, which is very good in the ever stingy Italian leagues. They have only lost one of eleven at home and have also conceded a miserly five in that time.
Juventus were not expected to mount a title challenge this season, but Antonio Conte has fashioned them into a solid side capable of hanging in their in every match. They are still unbeaten in twenty three matches home and away and for them it is their defence that is key to that record. They have only conceded an amazing fourteen in that time, and only six of those away. This probably gives you an idea of Conte's tactics. It's safety first stuff, with the likes of Milos Krasic deemed surplus to requirements due to his lack of defensive nous. They will take a draw in this, and I think they may well get it.
Back the Draw at 3.25 with BetFred.
Napoli v Inter Milan, Sunday 1945
Another big match sees Inter travelling to the South to Naples. Napoli have again showed in Europe that their forward line should be feared by all, as Chelsea discovered this time. The front four of Cavani, Hamsik, Lavezzi and Gargano are amongst the best in world football now, possibly the best beyond Barca and Real in Spain. Their league form has tailed off a bit to leave them to far behind for a proper title push, but they will want to go for Champions League qualification again. Cavani has now scored in each of the last three matches after a short dry spell and will be looking forward to facing an Inter side who are struggling.
Early on after the appointment of Claudio Ranieri it looked like Inter had steadied the ship and could even have pushed for Champions League football again after a disastrous start to their season. However comma that hope has now dissipated completely. They have fallen to seventh after failing to win in five league matches, as well as losing in the Copa Italia and also midweek in the Champions League. Ranieri must be feeling the pressure, and it looks like the problems can be traced to Sneijder's return to the side. The Dutchman is some player, but the thing Inter had found was a work ethic and lack of stars initially under Ranieri, and his reinstatement to the side has disrupted that. I fail to see how to solve this without a huge fall-out.
Back Napoli at 1.9 with Wiliam Hill.
Samsunspor v Bursaspor, Saturday 1400
First up in the Turkish Super Lig is struggling Samsunspor hosting Bursaspor. Samsun started the season horribly and are still suffering for it being perched above only the truly appalling Anakragucu. But, recently there have been signs they may well get on a run and pull clear of danger. This is mainly due to the inspired signing of striker Theofanis Gekas over the winter break. He may well resemble a homeless man, but he has scored goals wherever his career has taken him, and that has continued so far in Turkey. Since his arrival seven matches ago, Samsun have only lost twice. This run has also included the stunning 3-1 win over Fenerbahce and a confidence boosting 3-0 win over Ankara last weekend.
Bursaspor have featured numerous times this season as their fall from the top of the table has played out. They spent a lot of money to reach the summit, and now the investing has slowed they are reverting back to mid-table where they were before. They have now won the last two matches to regain some form, but they do not score enough to ever make me confident of backing them at regularly tight prices. I think their good recent form comes to an end here.
Back Samsunspor at 2.65 with SportingBet.
Galatasaray v Besiktas, Sunday 1700
One of the biggest matches in the calendar takes place this weekend with Istanbul powerhouses Gala and Besiktas clashing. Gala have led the table for the majority of the season and are now looking to hold off a Fenerbahce side who strengthened considerably over winter. Gala themselves have a number of players that were already very good, and this is why they probably were more concerned with holding on to players than bringing anyone in. The goalkeeper Muslera is being watched by numerous sides in more prominent leagues and the likes of Olof Mellberg, Milan Baros and Johan Elmander are all excellent players by Super Lig standards. Personally, I think they will be able to hold off their city rivals and win back the Super Lig crown.
Besiktas have fallen way behind both their city neighbours in recent seasons. This can mainly be put down to a terrible recruitment process that has seen them bringing in players like Guti who have looked more motivated by the attractive pay packets than showcasing their talents. This has only really been bucked by Ricardo Quaresma who seems to have found his level after a few years struggling in Europe's more major leagues. Simao can also still be very good on his day, but those days are becoming ever more infrequent.
Back Galatasaray at 1.95 with SportingBet.
Friday, 24 February 2012
Friday, 17 February 2012
A Minutes Silence For...
The death of Arsenal as we have come to know them. This week's main talking point with regards to English football was the thrashing AC Milan dealt out to a sorry Arsenal side in Italy. As a fan of a non-league side I had always had a soft spot for Arsenal as my 'big team'. The football they played at the start of Wenger's reign was a real pleasure to watch, both because it was exciting and so far removed from anything I'd seen before. Unfortunately the side has been on the slide for a few years now. They have come to rely on less and less world class players and are now down to just Robin Van Persie, and that was ruthlessly exposed by an AC Milan side who really are not brilliant. The defence is a shambles, the midfield is one-paced and all too easily out-fought, and the attack is now just Van Persie. I can only see this being remedied by a huge overhaul in the summer, and if Wenger is unwilling then it may be best for all concerned if he moves aside.
The FA Cup in England this weekend means there is less matches for me to pick from as I'm still not a Cup punter unless something looks outstanding value.
Music comes from The Roots with Stomp.
Norwich v Leicester, Saturday 1500
Norwich have featured a number of times in this column, and they have been a very profitable side for us this year. The Premier League is definitely weaker than at any time I can remember, barring Man City and Spurs I would argue every one of the 'major' clubs is regressing, but Norwich have performed brilliantly. They now look extremely comfortable in mid-table and could even push for Europe if they continue to play as well as they are. This comfort in the league means they should take the FA Cup very seriously. With Man City and Man Utd eliminated the competition is wide open for any side giving it a go. They also have a nice draw at home to a Championship side who have failed to live up to their pre-season billing as joint favourites for promotion.
Leicester spent big in the summer with the intention of automatic promotion being assured, this has not happened at all. Some poor results saw Sven Goran-Eriksson sacked a while ago, and things have not improved greatly since. The problem with signing a whole new team of players, regardless of how good they are, is that it is very hard to hit the ground running with everybody still getting to know each other and the system. They may well find that next season they kick on with a few tweaks, but I think they'll miss out this time.
Back Norwich at 1.95 with William Hill.
Athletic Bilbao v Malaga, Sunday 1500
Another side who have popped up here on occasion is Bilbao. I have mentioned previously how Marcelo Bielsa was brought in to change the approach of a side renowned for their physical prowess. He has definitely done this and at times the side play some fantastic stuff. The likes of Iker Muniain in particular have flourished in a system that lets them express their skills. The change of system has still found room for the more physical stylings of Fernando Llorente, the Spain forward is still the focal point of the side and is benefitting from the increased creativity behind him. At present it could be argued he should be first choice for the national side. With the final Champions League position still very much up for grabs Bilbao will be looking to turn their home ground back into the fortress it has always been.
Malaga were the first side in Spain to be the beneficiaries of oil money. At the end of last season it was announced they had been bought by another Arab investor and would be looking to push the club forward to eventually challenge at the top of the table. They have not quite spent as freely as some predicted and they have been very hit and miss. The likes of Santi Cazorla have shown their skills regularly, but some others have struggled to get going. This has been particularly true away from home with only two wins and seven losses from eleven matches away from home. They will not be relishing this trip at all.
Back Athletic Bilbao at 1.95 with Stan James.
Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1945
Over to Serie A and another column favourite with Udinese hosting Cagliari. Udinese have been hanging around the top of the table all season, but were dealt a blow last weekend when losing at home to AC Milan. That was, however, their first home defeat of the season, and they have only drawn one more from twelve home matches. They have been tight at the back, only conceding seven goals in those twelve games, and have also scored twenty three to average almost two goals a game. The defeat last week may well have dealt their title hopes a blow, but could well now free them up from that pressure and see them continue to hand out defeats to all visitors.
Cagliari have hovered around mid-table for much of the season and will probably be happy with that for now. Avoiding getting dragged into a relegation scrap should have been the aim, and they have achieved that on the back of their very good home form. They have been hard to beat, but goals have been a problem, with only twenty two scored in their twenty three matches so far. Whilst Italy is rarely free-scoring, that sort of record will stop a team making any sort of push up the table, and if the defence falters, matches will quickly be lost.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.75 with Bet365.
Kaiserslautern v Borussia Monchengladbach, Saturday 1430
Kaiserslautern have really struggled this season in the Bundesliga and will not be relishing the visit of title challengers Gladbach on Saturday. They currently sit in the relegation play-off position of third bottom and the stats reveal just why they have found it such hard work. They have not conceded nearly as many as some of the sides around them, but have scored a measly fifteen goals in twenty one matches. This has seen them drawing far too many matches as they struggle for the goals that could turn them into wins. They have only won three matches all season and it is this more than anything else which could well see them drop out of the top division.
As mentioned Gladbach are still fighting for a chance at the Bundesliga title. They sit three points off top club Dortmund and will still consider themselves as realistic challengers, especially with Marco Reus back and playing well. The forward is the key to Gladbach's turning good performances into fantastic wins. Since xmas they have played four a won three, drawing the other. This has included humping Bayern Munich 3-1 and also an accomplished performance in beating a very good Schalke side 3-0 last time out. They are in great form and it doesn't look likely to desert them anytime soon.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.37 with Coral.
Fenerbahce v Sivasspor, Saturday 1700
Some major investment over the winter break for Fenerbahce will have them confident of kicking on and overhauling Galatasaray in the Super Lig. They currently sit in second position and are six points off perennial rivals Gala, and their home form is the main reason they are still in touch. They have played twelve and have won ten of those and drawn two more, leaving them unbeaten at home so far. They have also only conceded seven goals in those twelve matches whilst scoring twenty four. The new signing of Moussa Sow from Lille in France has added an extra option to their attack, which has at times been all too reliant upon Miroslav Stoch.
Sivasspor have proven that sometimes attacking without a thought for defence can reap rewards. They have also relied on their home form to carry them through to a position of sixth in the table, with only one defeat at their own place so far. Their have been eighty two goals in their twenty three matches so far, and away from home they have been extra leaky at the back. As mentioned this is down to the fact they seem to have embraced an attack is the best policy system this term. In a league where goals are a rarity this often sees good prices available on Over Goals in their matches.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.0 with William Hill.
Kayserispor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1400
Another side who have at times performed much better than many expected have been Kayserispor. They have been as high in the table as fourth, but have slipped back to eleventh at present. With the league being as tight as it is outside of the top two they are still in a position to string some wins together and move back up the table. They have been far better at home with thirteen played, six wins, two draws and five defeats. They have also scored nineteen goals in those matches and only conceded fourteen. In Turkey this is not a bad record at all.
Trabzon are still enjoying European participation in the Europa league having dropped out of the Champions League at the group stage. This may well impact upon their league form though as the matches are on Thursday and as we have seen in the Premier League, a lot of sides struggle at the weekend immediately after their games. Trabzon have actually scored more than any other Super Lig side at home to see them in fourth in the table, but have only won four from thirteen away matches. They have also drawn five and have only scored just over half their home total in their away matches. They may well struggle for a win here.
Back Kayserispor Draw No Bet at 2.5 with Stan James.
The FA Cup in England this weekend means there is less matches for me to pick from as I'm still not a Cup punter unless something looks outstanding value.
Music comes from The Roots with Stomp.
Norwich v Leicester, Saturday 1500
Norwich have featured a number of times in this column, and they have been a very profitable side for us this year. The Premier League is definitely weaker than at any time I can remember, barring Man City and Spurs I would argue every one of the 'major' clubs is regressing, but Norwich have performed brilliantly. They now look extremely comfortable in mid-table and could even push for Europe if they continue to play as well as they are. This comfort in the league means they should take the FA Cup very seriously. With Man City and Man Utd eliminated the competition is wide open for any side giving it a go. They also have a nice draw at home to a Championship side who have failed to live up to their pre-season billing as joint favourites for promotion.
Leicester spent big in the summer with the intention of automatic promotion being assured, this has not happened at all. Some poor results saw Sven Goran-Eriksson sacked a while ago, and things have not improved greatly since. The problem with signing a whole new team of players, regardless of how good they are, is that it is very hard to hit the ground running with everybody still getting to know each other and the system. They may well find that next season they kick on with a few tweaks, but I think they'll miss out this time.
Back Norwich at 1.95 with William Hill.
Athletic Bilbao v Malaga, Sunday 1500
Another side who have popped up here on occasion is Bilbao. I have mentioned previously how Marcelo Bielsa was brought in to change the approach of a side renowned for their physical prowess. He has definitely done this and at times the side play some fantastic stuff. The likes of Iker Muniain in particular have flourished in a system that lets them express their skills. The change of system has still found room for the more physical stylings of Fernando Llorente, the Spain forward is still the focal point of the side and is benefitting from the increased creativity behind him. At present it could be argued he should be first choice for the national side. With the final Champions League position still very much up for grabs Bilbao will be looking to turn their home ground back into the fortress it has always been.
Malaga were the first side in Spain to be the beneficiaries of oil money. At the end of last season it was announced they had been bought by another Arab investor and would be looking to push the club forward to eventually challenge at the top of the table. They have not quite spent as freely as some predicted and they have been very hit and miss. The likes of Santi Cazorla have shown their skills regularly, but some others have struggled to get going. This has been particularly true away from home with only two wins and seven losses from eleven matches away from home. They will not be relishing this trip at all.
Back Athletic Bilbao at 1.95 with Stan James.
Udinese v Cagliari, Sunday 1945
Over to Serie A and another column favourite with Udinese hosting Cagliari. Udinese have been hanging around the top of the table all season, but were dealt a blow last weekend when losing at home to AC Milan. That was, however, their first home defeat of the season, and they have only drawn one more from twelve home matches. They have been tight at the back, only conceding seven goals in those twelve games, and have also scored twenty three to average almost two goals a game. The defeat last week may well have dealt their title hopes a blow, but could well now free them up from that pressure and see them continue to hand out defeats to all visitors.
Cagliari have hovered around mid-table for much of the season and will probably be happy with that for now. Avoiding getting dragged into a relegation scrap should have been the aim, and they have achieved that on the back of their very good home form. They have been hard to beat, but goals have been a problem, with only twenty two scored in their twenty three matches so far. Whilst Italy is rarely free-scoring, that sort of record will stop a team making any sort of push up the table, and if the defence falters, matches will quickly be lost.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.75 with Bet365.
Kaiserslautern v Borussia Monchengladbach, Saturday 1430
Kaiserslautern have really struggled this season in the Bundesliga and will not be relishing the visit of title challengers Gladbach on Saturday. They currently sit in the relegation play-off position of third bottom and the stats reveal just why they have found it such hard work. They have not conceded nearly as many as some of the sides around them, but have scored a measly fifteen goals in twenty one matches. This has seen them drawing far too many matches as they struggle for the goals that could turn them into wins. They have only won three matches all season and it is this more than anything else which could well see them drop out of the top division.
As mentioned Gladbach are still fighting for a chance at the Bundesliga title. They sit three points off top club Dortmund and will still consider themselves as realistic challengers, especially with Marco Reus back and playing well. The forward is the key to Gladbach's turning good performances into fantastic wins. Since xmas they have played four a won three, drawing the other. This has included humping Bayern Munich 3-1 and also an accomplished performance in beating a very good Schalke side 3-0 last time out. They are in great form and it doesn't look likely to desert them anytime soon.
Back Borussia Monchengladbach at 2.37 with Coral.
Fenerbahce v Sivasspor, Saturday 1700
Some major investment over the winter break for Fenerbahce will have them confident of kicking on and overhauling Galatasaray in the Super Lig. They currently sit in second position and are six points off perennial rivals Gala, and their home form is the main reason they are still in touch. They have played twelve and have won ten of those and drawn two more, leaving them unbeaten at home so far. They have also only conceded seven goals in those twelve matches whilst scoring twenty four. The new signing of Moussa Sow from Lille in France has added an extra option to their attack, which has at times been all too reliant upon Miroslav Stoch.
Sivasspor have proven that sometimes attacking without a thought for defence can reap rewards. They have also relied on their home form to carry them through to a position of sixth in the table, with only one defeat at their own place so far. Their have been eighty two goals in their twenty three matches so far, and away from home they have been extra leaky at the back. As mentioned this is down to the fact they seem to have embraced an attack is the best policy system this term. In a league where goals are a rarity this often sees good prices available on Over Goals in their matches.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.0 with William Hill.
Kayserispor v Trabzonspor, Sunday 1400
Another side who have at times performed much better than many expected have been Kayserispor. They have been as high in the table as fourth, but have slipped back to eleventh at present. With the league being as tight as it is outside of the top two they are still in a position to string some wins together and move back up the table. They have been far better at home with thirteen played, six wins, two draws and five defeats. They have also scored nineteen goals in those matches and only conceded fourteen. In Turkey this is not a bad record at all.
Trabzon are still enjoying European participation in the Europa league having dropped out of the Champions League at the group stage. This may well impact upon their league form though as the matches are on Thursday and as we have seen in the Premier League, a lot of sides struggle at the weekend immediately after their games. Trabzon have actually scored more than any other Super Lig side at home to see them in fourth in the table, but have only won four from thirteen away matches. They have also drawn five and have only scored just over half their home total in their away matches. They may well struggle for a win here.
Back Kayserispor Draw No Bet at 2.5 with Stan James.
Friday, 10 February 2012
Bring out the orange ball...
It's that time of the year again, coloured balls and postponements are the order of the day. All over Europe for the past few weekends fixtures have fallen foul of the sub-zero temperatures and snowfall. This weekend certainly looks like the same may well happen.
Midweek saw little action anywhere at all. We had the Monday night borefest that was Liverpool v Spurs, and both sides looked pretty happy to leave without losing. Unfortunately for watchers this meant a terrible 0-0 scoreline, with a cat on the pitch about the most excitement produced.
Away from the pitch though saw huge changes for England's national team. I shan't go into huge detail, as you'd have had to of been in a cave not to know what I'm referring to. All I'll say is it is nothing short of a disgrace the way this nation's media has hounded out the most successful (in games won terms) manager because he was foreign and unwilling to play ball with the prats over interviews and the like. It looks like they'll get their man in Harry Redknapp, and I don't possibly see how he'll turn players that are Quarter Finalists at best into anything more.
Music from magnificently named Sister Kisser with Soul Glow.
Man Utd v Liverpool, Saturday 1245
The BIG one this weekend is also the first match of the weekend in the Premier League. Man Utd host Liverpool loking like they are again getting really going post xmas. Last weekend saw them mount an amazing comeback to draw with Chelsea having trailed 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. As I have stated many times before, I think it will be a damning indictment on the league if they do win it this year with surely one of the weakest squads for many a year at Old Trafford. But, if they do then credit to Fergie for getting them to that position I suppose. He certainly wont win the Champions League again without significant improvement though.
Liverpool will have Luis Suarez in the ranks and he will surely come in for some well-justified abuse for his racial taunting of Evra earlier in the season. Kenny Dalglish has also been giving a lesson in how not to do PR this year with his constant whingeing and refusal to admit guilt at all over the affair. He has also presided over a hell of a lot of money being chucked at some particularly average English players, and lo and behold, they have not performed well. Carroll and Downing stand out as wastes of money even when Fernando Torres went for more. Downing has done the square root of buggery on the wing, and Carroll has just looked hapless far to often.
Back United at 1.9 with William Hill.
Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday 1500
Oh Arsenal, the kings of inconsistency. Having had a terrible January they managed to beat Blackburn 7-1 last weekend, and could have had more. Once again Van Persie was fantastic, but Oxlade-Chamberlain and Theo impressed too, particularly shocking in Walcott's case. As much as it was a good result though, it must be stressed it was against a side fully capable of being awful at any point. That they are also missing their best player due to a stand off with the manager should also not be brushed aside. This sort of result means nothing in the grand scheme for me. Arsenal are fully capable of punishing a side like that given the chance, it's when the going gets tough they are found wanting and why they will not finish in the Top 4 this time out.
Sunderland could make a case that they would have pushed for the Champions League had they only dispensed with serially rubbish manager Steve Bruce earlier in the season. The appointment of Martin O'Neill has seen them as the form team in the entire league since that day. The likes of James McLean have been given a chance, and have grasped it with both hands to really impress. Lee Cattermole again looks an arguable alternative to Scott Parker for England rather than a sending off waiting to happen. I thought O'Neill's tenure at Villa showed he may well be out of touch with the modern game, but he is proving me very wrong at the moment and I would not touch Arsenal here.
Back Sunderland Draw No Bet at 2.62 with Bet365.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Schalke, Saturday 1730
The big televised match in Germany on Saturday evening sees a top of the table clash between Monchengladbach and Schalke. Both sides were probably not expected to do quite as well as they have this term, but are still currently in with a shout of a league title. Monchengladbach are probably the more shocking of the pair as they have not really been heard from in many years. The form of Marco Reus has been key to most of their better performances as the forward has plenty of pace, tricks and also chips in with his fair share of goals. Unfortunately for their fans he has been sold to Dortmund for this summer, but has vowed to show his best form before then.
Schalke have been there or thereabouts for much of the recent past without ever truly worrying the likes of Bayern. Last season they struggled under Felix Magath's autocratic management and with his never ending signings leaving them with no team cohesiveness at all. This season they have performed much better. The likes of Klaas Huntelaar are finally showing the form that brought him to Europe's attention at Ajax and Raul is still chipping in when selected. I can't see them holding on for a true title tilt, but they'll definitely be in the shake up.
Back Monchengladbach at 2.5 on Betfair.
FC Koln v Hamburg, Sunday 1630
Sunday sees perennially entertaining Koln (Cologne) hosting Hamburg. Having held on to star man Lukas Podolski in January the Koln fans will surely hope for a climb up the table into some sort of mid-table obscurity before dreaming again of a push for Europe next season. The problem seems to be that they always have to 'enjoy' some sort of crisis or they can't function properly. This season saw them start horrendously before finally settling into something resembling form and slowly climbing away from the relegation places. They currently sit 10th in the table having won four, drawn two and lost four at home. There away form has always been the issue, and with twenty six conceded in ten away games it is clear the problem still exists. However comma at home this has been less of a problem and they'll fancy something here.
Hamburg have been quiet dreadful for the most part all season. Having appointed former Chelsea Youth Director Frank Arnesen in some sort of all encompassing directorial role he proceeded to buy up a lot of the dross he'd accumulated at Chelsea and throw it out in Hamburg's first team. This has shown the players up as sub-standard in the main and leaves a club that was regularly in Europe not so long ago looking nervously over their shoulders at the base of the table. They picked up a draw at home to Munich last time out, but whilst they have indeed looked better since xmas, that is better than terrible and Koln have every chance at very appealing odds.
Back Koln at 3.2 with Boylesports.
Udinese v AC Milan, Saturday 1700
Another big match at the peak of the table in Europe. This time it's Serie A with upstarts Udinese hosting always challenging AC Milan. Udinese have again shown that a brilliant scouting network and hard-working players can reap huge rewards and challenge the established order given time. Every season they lose a couple of their best players, and every season they come back looking like it's not completely destabilised them. They have also again been able to rely upon the goalscoring prowess of Di Natale, who even at his age is scoring regularly and making his younger contemporaries look less than glittering.
AC have again shown their strength by pushing for the title without really considerably strengthening their side. Obviously when you have the experience of winning titles that players like Seedorf and Ibrahimovic have then that is invaluable. However, they have struggled without the mercurial Swede's goals when he has been suspended or injured and he is currently missing. This has seen them lose away at Lazio, draw at home to Napoli and get beaten at home by Juventus in the cup in midweek in their last three outings. They would not have wanted this trip now.
Back Udinese at 2.68 on Betfair.
Catania v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Next up is Catania hosting the suddenly exciting Genoa. Both sides are hovering around mid-table currently and relying on home form to keep them there. Catania have played ten at home so far, winning four, drawing four and only losing twice. This success can mostly be put down to a miserly defence which has only been breached eight times in those ten matches whilst the forwards have contributed thirteen to see a healthy return at home. Since xmas they have drawn two and lost two and there has been at least two goals in every match. They have conceded a goal apiece in both their home matches too.
Genoa have come back after the winter break a different side entirely. They have been going goal crazy, particularly in a league like Serie A where goals are always hard to come by. There have been a phenomenal twenty six goals in five matches since the break with the last two matches ending in 3-2 thrillers and a 5-3 before that. They seem to have changed approach to a gung-ho style of 'however many you score, we'll go for more' and it has had mixed results. But, it has made them great to watch for the neutrals. I see no reason for this madness to stop and will be betting accordingly.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.5 with SkyBet.
Genclerbirligi v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Saturday 1400
Two sides in opposite runs of form meet at Gencler on Saturday afternoon. Outside of the big two in Turkey of Fenerbahce and Galatasaray there is always room for other sides to mount a challenge and for the last couple of months it has been Gencler's turn to make a push. They are now up to fourth in the table and have an intimidating home record of played thirteen, won eight, drawn four and only lost once whilst scoring twenty four and only conceding ten. As this record would suggest, they are solid at the back and in striker Tum possess a man who will always score given a chance. They have won four and drawn two of the last six and are a formidable outfit.
Mersin won promotion and didn't start off too badly this season. However, this early form is now the only reason they are not firmly entrenched in the relegation mire. They have only won one match in the last nine and have succumbed to defeat in five of those, including a 5-1 home defeat by Sivasspor last time out. They are in dire straits and falling fast. I think the odds on Gencler are very generous this weekend.
Back Genclerbirligi at 1.9 with SportingBet.
Samsunspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1400
Another side in trouble this season is Samsunspor. They currently sit second bottom to the wretched Ankaragucu and since they are incredibly poor it says a lot. The problem is simple really for them, they don't score many and concede lots. They have only scored twenty four in twenty five matches and conceded a whopping thirty nine in that time to leave collecting wins difficult. They have been better at home with twelve played and an even share of four wins, four draws and four defeats, but their inconsistency is the issue. They have been beaten 4-2 by Istanbul BB at home and then beaten Fenerbahce 3-1 at home the following weekend.
Eskisehir were very close to European qualification last season and have again showed themselves to be no pushovers this time out. They are very hard to beat and collect a lot of 1-0 wins, becoming masters of snatching single goals and defending in numbers. It isn't fun to watch, but it certainly keeps them in the right half of the table. They have a very mixed record away form home however and anything could well happen here. Both sides will see this as winnable and that could produce a classic match.
Back Over 2.5 at 2.1 with William Hill.
Midweek saw little action anywhere at all. We had the Monday night borefest that was Liverpool v Spurs, and both sides looked pretty happy to leave without losing. Unfortunately for watchers this meant a terrible 0-0 scoreline, with a cat on the pitch about the most excitement produced.
Away from the pitch though saw huge changes for England's national team. I shan't go into huge detail, as you'd have had to of been in a cave not to know what I'm referring to. All I'll say is it is nothing short of a disgrace the way this nation's media has hounded out the most successful (in games won terms) manager because he was foreign and unwilling to play ball with the prats over interviews and the like. It looks like they'll get their man in Harry Redknapp, and I don't possibly see how he'll turn players that are Quarter Finalists at best into anything more.
Music from magnificently named Sister Kisser with Soul Glow.
Man Utd v Liverpool, Saturday 1245
The BIG one this weekend is also the first match of the weekend in the Premier League. Man Utd host Liverpool loking like they are again getting really going post xmas. Last weekend saw them mount an amazing comeback to draw with Chelsea having trailed 3-0 at Stamford Bridge. As I have stated many times before, I think it will be a damning indictment on the league if they do win it this year with surely one of the weakest squads for many a year at Old Trafford. But, if they do then credit to Fergie for getting them to that position I suppose. He certainly wont win the Champions League again without significant improvement though.
Liverpool will have Luis Suarez in the ranks and he will surely come in for some well-justified abuse for his racial taunting of Evra earlier in the season. Kenny Dalglish has also been giving a lesson in how not to do PR this year with his constant whingeing and refusal to admit guilt at all over the affair. He has also presided over a hell of a lot of money being chucked at some particularly average English players, and lo and behold, they have not performed well. Carroll and Downing stand out as wastes of money even when Fernando Torres went for more. Downing has done the square root of buggery on the wing, and Carroll has just looked hapless far to often.
Back United at 1.9 with William Hill.
Sunderland v Arsenal, Saturday 1500
Oh Arsenal, the kings of inconsistency. Having had a terrible January they managed to beat Blackburn 7-1 last weekend, and could have had more. Once again Van Persie was fantastic, but Oxlade-Chamberlain and Theo impressed too, particularly shocking in Walcott's case. As much as it was a good result though, it must be stressed it was against a side fully capable of being awful at any point. That they are also missing their best player due to a stand off with the manager should also not be brushed aside. This sort of result means nothing in the grand scheme for me. Arsenal are fully capable of punishing a side like that given the chance, it's when the going gets tough they are found wanting and why they will not finish in the Top 4 this time out.
Sunderland could make a case that they would have pushed for the Champions League had they only dispensed with serially rubbish manager Steve Bruce earlier in the season. The appointment of Martin O'Neill has seen them as the form team in the entire league since that day. The likes of James McLean have been given a chance, and have grasped it with both hands to really impress. Lee Cattermole again looks an arguable alternative to Scott Parker for England rather than a sending off waiting to happen. I thought O'Neill's tenure at Villa showed he may well be out of touch with the modern game, but he is proving me very wrong at the moment and I would not touch Arsenal here.
Back Sunderland Draw No Bet at 2.62 with Bet365.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Schalke, Saturday 1730
The big televised match in Germany on Saturday evening sees a top of the table clash between Monchengladbach and Schalke. Both sides were probably not expected to do quite as well as they have this term, but are still currently in with a shout of a league title. Monchengladbach are probably the more shocking of the pair as they have not really been heard from in many years. The form of Marco Reus has been key to most of their better performances as the forward has plenty of pace, tricks and also chips in with his fair share of goals. Unfortunately for their fans he has been sold to Dortmund for this summer, but has vowed to show his best form before then.
Schalke have been there or thereabouts for much of the recent past without ever truly worrying the likes of Bayern. Last season they struggled under Felix Magath's autocratic management and with his never ending signings leaving them with no team cohesiveness at all. This season they have performed much better. The likes of Klaas Huntelaar are finally showing the form that brought him to Europe's attention at Ajax and Raul is still chipping in when selected. I can't see them holding on for a true title tilt, but they'll definitely be in the shake up.
Back Monchengladbach at 2.5 on Betfair.
FC Koln v Hamburg, Sunday 1630
Sunday sees perennially entertaining Koln (Cologne) hosting Hamburg. Having held on to star man Lukas Podolski in January the Koln fans will surely hope for a climb up the table into some sort of mid-table obscurity before dreaming again of a push for Europe next season. The problem seems to be that they always have to 'enjoy' some sort of crisis or they can't function properly. This season saw them start horrendously before finally settling into something resembling form and slowly climbing away from the relegation places. They currently sit 10th in the table having won four, drawn two and lost four at home. There away form has always been the issue, and with twenty six conceded in ten away games it is clear the problem still exists. However comma at home this has been less of a problem and they'll fancy something here.
Hamburg have been quiet dreadful for the most part all season. Having appointed former Chelsea Youth Director Frank Arnesen in some sort of all encompassing directorial role he proceeded to buy up a lot of the dross he'd accumulated at Chelsea and throw it out in Hamburg's first team. This has shown the players up as sub-standard in the main and leaves a club that was regularly in Europe not so long ago looking nervously over their shoulders at the base of the table. They picked up a draw at home to Munich last time out, but whilst they have indeed looked better since xmas, that is better than terrible and Koln have every chance at very appealing odds.
Back Koln at 3.2 with Boylesports.
Udinese v AC Milan, Saturday 1700
Another big match at the peak of the table in Europe. This time it's Serie A with upstarts Udinese hosting always challenging AC Milan. Udinese have again shown that a brilliant scouting network and hard-working players can reap huge rewards and challenge the established order given time. Every season they lose a couple of their best players, and every season they come back looking like it's not completely destabilised them. They have also again been able to rely upon the goalscoring prowess of Di Natale, who even at his age is scoring regularly and making his younger contemporaries look less than glittering.
AC have again shown their strength by pushing for the title without really considerably strengthening their side. Obviously when you have the experience of winning titles that players like Seedorf and Ibrahimovic have then that is invaluable. However, they have struggled without the mercurial Swede's goals when he has been suspended or injured and he is currently missing. This has seen them lose away at Lazio, draw at home to Napoli and get beaten at home by Juventus in the cup in midweek in their last three outings. They would not have wanted this trip now.
Back Udinese at 2.68 on Betfair.
Catania v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Next up is Catania hosting the suddenly exciting Genoa. Both sides are hovering around mid-table currently and relying on home form to keep them there. Catania have played ten at home so far, winning four, drawing four and only losing twice. This success can mostly be put down to a miserly defence which has only been breached eight times in those ten matches whilst the forwards have contributed thirteen to see a healthy return at home. Since xmas they have drawn two and lost two and there has been at least two goals in every match. They have conceded a goal apiece in both their home matches too.
Genoa have come back after the winter break a different side entirely. They have been going goal crazy, particularly in a league like Serie A where goals are always hard to come by. There have been a phenomenal twenty six goals in five matches since the break with the last two matches ending in 3-2 thrillers and a 5-3 before that. They seem to have changed approach to a gung-ho style of 'however many you score, we'll go for more' and it has had mixed results. But, it has made them great to watch for the neutrals. I see no reason for this madness to stop and will be betting accordingly.
Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.5 with SkyBet.
Genclerbirligi v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Saturday 1400
Two sides in opposite runs of form meet at Gencler on Saturday afternoon. Outside of the big two in Turkey of Fenerbahce and Galatasaray there is always room for other sides to mount a challenge and for the last couple of months it has been Gencler's turn to make a push. They are now up to fourth in the table and have an intimidating home record of played thirteen, won eight, drawn four and only lost once whilst scoring twenty four and only conceding ten. As this record would suggest, they are solid at the back and in striker Tum possess a man who will always score given a chance. They have won four and drawn two of the last six and are a formidable outfit.
Mersin won promotion and didn't start off too badly this season. However, this early form is now the only reason they are not firmly entrenched in the relegation mire. They have only won one match in the last nine and have succumbed to defeat in five of those, including a 5-1 home defeat by Sivasspor last time out. They are in dire straits and falling fast. I think the odds on Gencler are very generous this weekend.
Back Genclerbirligi at 1.9 with SportingBet.
Samsunspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1400
Another side in trouble this season is Samsunspor. They currently sit second bottom to the wretched Ankaragucu and since they are incredibly poor it says a lot. The problem is simple really for them, they don't score many and concede lots. They have only scored twenty four in twenty five matches and conceded a whopping thirty nine in that time to leave collecting wins difficult. They have been better at home with twelve played and an even share of four wins, four draws and four defeats, but their inconsistency is the issue. They have been beaten 4-2 by Istanbul BB at home and then beaten Fenerbahce 3-1 at home the following weekend.
Eskisehir were very close to European qualification last season and have again showed themselves to be no pushovers this time out. They are very hard to beat and collect a lot of 1-0 wins, becoming masters of snatching single goals and defending in numbers. It isn't fun to watch, but it certainly keeps them in the right half of the table. They have a very mixed record away form home however and anything could well happen here. Both sides will see this as winnable and that could produce a classic match.
Back Over 2.5 at 2.1 with William Hill.
Friday, 3 February 2012
Postcards from Siberia...
First of all I would like to offer my apologies for the lack of blog last weekend. I was taken away to Lithuania by my lovely girlfriend for my birthday so was not able to research the betting action properly. Those who follow me @TopTopTips on the Twitter will have seen two out of three land midweek for healthy profits.
There has been plenty of action in my absence from here so a brief summary is probably required:
1. Sunderland are the team in form, in fact they're in the best form in the whole of the Premier League since O'Neill's appointment.
2. Everton and QPR look to have made the biggest improvements to their squads and are worth watching.
3. Arsenal are dire, Man City need a comfortable win for confidence.
4. Fener and Gala in Turkey are out of form, Orduspor are doing great after Hector Cuper took over the managerial reigns.
5. Dortmund have come back looking back to their very best, title should be their's to lose.
6. Barca are vulnerable away from Camp Nou this year, Madrid like to give the opposition a headstart before beating them anyway.
Music this week comes from Sundowner with The War Is Noise.
QPR v Wolves, Saturday 1500
First up is the previously mentioned QPR now managed by Mark Hughes. Whilst I am distinctly of the opinion he is greatly over-rated as a manager he does get teams playing to their abilities, if not exceeding them. The signings QPR made before the transfer window closed have them looking a far better outfit than previously and they really ought to comfortably survive. The likes of Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora may not see them pushing on to Europe, but they're a lot more than the likes of Wolves or Blackburn have to offer. They raced into a 2-0 lead against Villa before surrendering it, but I would not expect them to do the same to a dreadful Wolves side.
Wolves are possibly the worst team currently playing in the Premier League and they didn't do anything in January to make me think they'll turn it round. Mick McCarthy has done well, in my opinion, to keep them around for more than one season with a side generally made up of Championship standard players. However comma these things can't continue when the players are not good enough and no major investment is forthcoming. I think this comes down to Big Mick not knowing much outside of the Championship as well as a lack of major investment behind the scenes. Regardless, I wouldn't back Wolves at present and will be against them away for the forseeable future.
Back QPR at 1.95 with William Hill.
Chelsea v Man Utd, Sunday 1600
The big one this weekend has Man Utd travelling to London to take on Chelsea. I wasn't involved in their midweek match away at Swansea, but with respective home and away records I certainly wouldn't have touched Chelsea at under even money. This was borne out in them falling behind and only snatching a fortunate late equaliser through Jose Bosingwa. As a lot of people mentioned last season and this, the squad is getting old together and a major overhaul is needed. I would be in no hurry to give Villas Boas the chop as he is signing some interesting young players, but there can be no doubt it could be a painful season this year, and possibly even next. They certainly will not relish the visit of United this weekend.
On to United, and as much as I have given them stick for having their worst team in years, they sit level top with neighbours City as I write this. I struggle to commend anyone for this, it is more a damning indictment of the rest of the league at the moment. Ferguson may well have motivated his side well, but the glaring deficiencies are not being addressed so I'll hold off from compliments until they are sorted. As mentioned though they are definitely grinding out results and will not fear the trip to Stamford Bridge.
Back Man Utd Draw No Bet at 2.05 with William Hill.
Hertha Berlin v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
Back to the Bundesliga on the blog! I can only see one standout bet this weekend and that's this one. Hertha Berlin are enjoying a return to the top league in Germany, but they are in danger of only making it a one season stay. They started off bad, improved a little, and are back to being horrendous again. They don't score many and have now not won in 9 matches. In the German Bundesliga where most teams are fairly open and goals fly in more than any other major European league having a lack of firepower can be enough to condemn a side, and Hertha look like that may be their fate.
Hannover were one of last season's success stories, promoting some young players and also changing to a hard pressing game that reaped rewards. They didn't start at all well this time out, but have turned it round to now sit just outside the title picture. They have struggled away from home with only one win and a paltry 6 goals to their name in nine matches and this is probably the source of their issues. I think both sides would take a draw in this.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with Ladbrokes.
Chievo v Parma, Sunday 1400
Here is a classic match up of good home form takes on rubbish away. Chievo were the shock success of the noughties in Serie A in as much as they have hung around when many other big sides have come and gone and come and gone again. They haven't thrown money around and have relied upon getting in the odd good foreign player and having plenty of battlers in their side. They have also made any side visiting their small stadium in Verona earn any points they get and that has continued this season. They have only lost two of nine at home this season with five wins and three draws, during this they may have only scored nine, but by only conceding seven they have earnt their points.
Parma have also survived when perhaps many expected them to fall after their benefactors Parmalat went bust in the late nineties. The days of signing the likes of Hidetoshi Nakata and Juan Veron are well past and every season is a struggle for points, but they're sticking around. They too rely upon a good home record and have struggled on the road. They have only won one of ten and lost six whilst scoring six and conceding a whopping twenty one. They are unbackable at the prices being offered for this.
Back Chievo at 2.37 at Coral.
Palermo v Atalanta, Sunday 1400
Now once again with a new manager Palermo are starting to show signs of improvement. They managed a very creditable 4-4 draw away at Inter midweek, and after their horrendous away form before Xmas that should definitely be seen as a positive. The one thing they have always had is good home form and are eight wins and two losses from their ten home matches. They have also started banging in the goals after settling into their slightly tinkered formation with eleven in the last three. They look like a push for Europe is definitely on the cards to me.
Atalanta have been hit and miss all season. They are not really any better home or away and can be quite unpredictable. They have however only won two of the last ten in Serie A and look out of luck for the most part. They have only scored one in the last four matches, albeit in a tough run, and are probably not looking forward to a trip to the south to take on home bankers Palermo.
Back Palermo at 1.83 at Stan James.
Gaziantepspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
Last season one of my favourite teams to back was Gaziantepspor as they had an awesome home record, but this season they've struggled considerably away and sit dangerously near the bottom of the Super Lig. They have won five of eleven at home and only lost three with a positive goal difference, but away they've only a solitary win from eleven and six losses. They are unbeaten in the last four at home and have won three of those.
Gala are still top of the league, but only really due to Fenerbahce also being very poor of late. Gala have only won one in four since the Xmas break and have not impressed at all in any match really. They beat Ankaragucu 4-0 at home, but for Ankara this season think Wigan, but times at least five. Every decent side in the Super Lig should be putting at least three past them and Gala merely went through the motions in beating them. Milan Baros will also be suspended for this one and with him goes a significant goal threat.
Back Gaziantepspor Draw No Bet at 2.62 with Stan James.
Bursaspor v Orduspor, Sunday 1400
The form side in the Super Lig of late is undoubtably Orduspor and they travel to this season's disappointment Bursaspor. Regular followers will know I've been against Bursa on a number of occasions this season and they've been good to us in terms of profit. After their two titles in a row and a decent push last season, they've fallen away drastically this time out. They currently sit in twelfth and have been ok at home, away has let them down. But, they are not scoring enough to see games out comfortably. This would be a concern for me and why I would still be loathe to be behind them at regularly short prices.
Orduspor were looking certain to be involved in the relegation scrap until appointing veteran manager Hector Cuper before Xmas. Since then they have been the form team in the Super Lig. They have not been beaten in seven and have won the last five. In that run they have also only conceded in two matches and look overpriced here to me. I would definitely want to be against the home side.
Back the Draw and Orduspor Double Chance at 2.0 with Boylesports.
There has been plenty of action in my absence from here so a brief summary is probably required:
1. Sunderland are the team in form, in fact they're in the best form in the whole of the Premier League since O'Neill's appointment.
2. Everton and QPR look to have made the biggest improvements to their squads and are worth watching.
3. Arsenal are dire, Man City need a comfortable win for confidence.
4. Fener and Gala in Turkey are out of form, Orduspor are doing great after Hector Cuper took over the managerial reigns.
5. Dortmund have come back looking back to their very best, title should be their's to lose.
6. Barca are vulnerable away from Camp Nou this year, Madrid like to give the opposition a headstart before beating them anyway.
Music this week comes from Sundowner with The War Is Noise.
QPR v Wolves, Saturday 1500
First up is the previously mentioned QPR now managed by Mark Hughes. Whilst I am distinctly of the opinion he is greatly over-rated as a manager he does get teams playing to their abilities, if not exceeding them. The signings QPR made before the transfer window closed have them looking a far better outfit than previously and they really ought to comfortably survive. The likes of Djibril Cisse and Bobby Zamora may not see them pushing on to Europe, but they're a lot more than the likes of Wolves or Blackburn have to offer. They raced into a 2-0 lead against Villa before surrendering it, but I would not expect them to do the same to a dreadful Wolves side.
Wolves are possibly the worst team currently playing in the Premier League and they didn't do anything in January to make me think they'll turn it round. Mick McCarthy has done well, in my opinion, to keep them around for more than one season with a side generally made up of Championship standard players. However comma these things can't continue when the players are not good enough and no major investment is forthcoming. I think this comes down to Big Mick not knowing much outside of the Championship as well as a lack of major investment behind the scenes. Regardless, I wouldn't back Wolves at present and will be against them away for the forseeable future.
Back QPR at 1.95 with William Hill.
Chelsea v Man Utd, Sunday 1600
The big one this weekend has Man Utd travelling to London to take on Chelsea. I wasn't involved in their midweek match away at Swansea, but with respective home and away records I certainly wouldn't have touched Chelsea at under even money. This was borne out in them falling behind and only snatching a fortunate late equaliser through Jose Bosingwa. As a lot of people mentioned last season and this, the squad is getting old together and a major overhaul is needed. I would be in no hurry to give Villas Boas the chop as he is signing some interesting young players, but there can be no doubt it could be a painful season this year, and possibly even next. They certainly will not relish the visit of United this weekend.
On to United, and as much as I have given them stick for having their worst team in years, they sit level top with neighbours City as I write this. I struggle to commend anyone for this, it is more a damning indictment of the rest of the league at the moment. Ferguson may well have motivated his side well, but the glaring deficiencies are not being addressed so I'll hold off from compliments until they are sorted. As mentioned though they are definitely grinding out results and will not fear the trip to Stamford Bridge.
Back Man Utd Draw No Bet at 2.05 with William Hill.
Hertha Berlin v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
Back to the Bundesliga on the blog! I can only see one standout bet this weekend and that's this one. Hertha Berlin are enjoying a return to the top league in Germany, but they are in danger of only making it a one season stay. They started off bad, improved a little, and are back to being horrendous again. They don't score many and have now not won in 9 matches. In the German Bundesliga where most teams are fairly open and goals fly in more than any other major European league having a lack of firepower can be enough to condemn a side, and Hertha look like that may be their fate.
Hannover were one of last season's success stories, promoting some young players and also changing to a hard pressing game that reaped rewards. They didn't start at all well this time out, but have turned it round to now sit just outside the title picture. They have struggled away from home with only one win and a paltry 6 goals to their name in nine matches and this is probably the source of their issues. I think both sides would take a draw in this.
Back the Draw at 3.4 with Ladbrokes.
Chievo v Parma, Sunday 1400
Here is a classic match up of good home form takes on rubbish away. Chievo were the shock success of the noughties in Serie A in as much as they have hung around when many other big sides have come and gone and come and gone again. They haven't thrown money around and have relied upon getting in the odd good foreign player and having plenty of battlers in their side. They have also made any side visiting their small stadium in Verona earn any points they get and that has continued this season. They have only lost two of nine at home this season with five wins and three draws, during this they may have only scored nine, but by only conceding seven they have earnt their points.
Parma have also survived when perhaps many expected them to fall after their benefactors Parmalat went bust in the late nineties. The days of signing the likes of Hidetoshi Nakata and Juan Veron are well past and every season is a struggle for points, but they're sticking around. They too rely upon a good home record and have struggled on the road. They have only won one of ten and lost six whilst scoring six and conceding a whopping twenty one. They are unbackable at the prices being offered for this.
Back Chievo at 2.37 at Coral.
Palermo v Atalanta, Sunday 1400
Now once again with a new manager Palermo are starting to show signs of improvement. They managed a very creditable 4-4 draw away at Inter midweek, and after their horrendous away form before Xmas that should definitely be seen as a positive. The one thing they have always had is good home form and are eight wins and two losses from their ten home matches. They have also started banging in the goals after settling into their slightly tinkered formation with eleven in the last three. They look like a push for Europe is definitely on the cards to me.
Atalanta have been hit and miss all season. They are not really any better home or away and can be quite unpredictable. They have however only won two of the last ten in Serie A and look out of luck for the most part. They have only scored one in the last four matches, albeit in a tough run, and are probably not looking forward to a trip to the south to take on home bankers Palermo.
Back Palermo at 1.83 at Stan James.
Gaziantepspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
Last season one of my favourite teams to back was Gaziantepspor as they had an awesome home record, but this season they've struggled considerably away and sit dangerously near the bottom of the Super Lig. They have won five of eleven at home and only lost three with a positive goal difference, but away they've only a solitary win from eleven and six losses. They are unbeaten in the last four at home and have won three of those.
Gala are still top of the league, but only really due to Fenerbahce also being very poor of late. Gala have only won one in four since the Xmas break and have not impressed at all in any match really. They beat Ankaragucu 4-0 at home, but for Ankara this season think Wigan, but times at least five. Every decent side in the Super Lig should be putting at least three past them and Gala merely went through the motions in beating them. Milan Baros will also be suspended for this one and with him goes a significant goal threat.
Back Gaziantepspor Draw No Bet at 2.62 with Stan James.
Bursaspor v Orduspor, Sunday 1400
The form side in the Super Lig of late is undoubtably Orduspor and they travel to this season's disappointment Bursaspor. Regular followers will know I've been against Bursa on a number of occasions this season and they've been good to us in terms of profit. After their two titles in a row and a decent push last season, they've fallen away drastically this time out. They currently sit in twelfth and have been ok at home, away has let them down. But, they are not scoring enough to see games out comfortably. This would be a concern for me and why I would still be loathe to be behind them at regularly short prices.
Orduspor were looking certain to be involved in the relegation scrap until appointing veteran manager Hector Cuper before Xmas. Since then they have been the form team in the Super Lig. They have not been beaten in seven and have won the last five. In that run they have also only conceded in two matches and look overpriced here to me. I would definitely want to be against the home side.
Back the Draw and Orduspor Double Chance at 2.0 with Boylesports.
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