My favourite tournament in world football is almost upon us, and I can barely wait! Whilst I've never bet fortunes on the tournament it is always a cracking watch with everyone involved keen to impress for moves or looking forward to upcoming World Cups. Add into this the fact that the Brazil Vs Argentina rivalry is nearly always played out at some point and I think we can agree we're on to something of a winner. I will use this first Copa America edition to look at what bets are avilable in the outrights/specials markets before the tournament then add matches starting tomorrow with a look at all the weekends action.
Tournament Outright
Much as I would love to tell you that Peru or Chile might spring a long odds surprise in this market, it just wont happen. We can look no further than the giants of South American football in my opinion in Argentina and Brazil. Both somewhat disappointed in the World Cup, but are now back with fresh managers and fresh approaches. Mario Menezes of Brazil has started blooding some of the Brazilian Serie A's brightest young talents like Neymar and Ganso, and has cast aside some of the more well known, but under-performing names. With Dani Alves and Marcelo of Real Madrid at full back and David Luiz and Thiago Silva at centre back they are also steadfast at the back. This is where I think they just have the edge over Argentina. Obviously the Albiceleste have the finest player in the world in their ranks in Messi, and have reinstated the under-appreciated Cambiasso to supply him, but the defence is seriously suspect. Romero the goalkeeper has solidified his position, but Sergio Batista seems to still be in some doubt over who to pick in his back four. This is mainly due to most options having obvious faults. Back Brazil at 3.25 with Boylesports and thank me in a few weeks.
Top Goalscorer
This one should be interesting. The bookies are unanimous in having Messi as a short priced fav for this, but I'm not convinced. Whilst he has looked much more likely to score since the removal of Maradona and a system not designed to make the most of the best player in the team, I still think others appeal more. With the addition of Carlos Tevez to the squad and the form of Ezequiel Lavezzi too, I think the Argentines might share the goals out a bit. What you're looking for here is either a greedy bastard or the focal point of a team that progresses a decent distance. Which leads me to 2 names, that of Neymar of Brazil and Falcao of Colombia. Neymar fits the greedy bastard tag perfectly. He is a fine player, but really believes his own hype and is not afraid to risk the wrath of team-mates when personal glory is at hand. With Brazil being my tip for the whole thing I would definitely also be looking at the Santos man, especially with a big move and $ signs in his eyes, to stake his claim. Best price is 13.0 at William Hill. The other man is current European hotshot Radamel Falcao of Porto. Another player who is likely to be on the move, and most likely to Real Madrid having joined up with Mourinho's dodgy agent Mendes. He is part of a decent Colombia side who could be the surprise package if he nets consistently. With Uruguay seemingly falling away after the World Cup and Forlan's form deserting him too, and also Paraguay seeming weaker than in previous years. It could be Colombia's turn to rise up again. In a group containing minnows Costa Rica and a poor Bolivia side he ought to get plenty of chances. I think it's worth a poke at Falcao as top scorer on the back of that possibility. Best price is 19.0 with Boylesports.
Group A Outrights
This group contains Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica and Bolivia. Great news for Colombia and Argentina, but not great news for us backers. There are still no real specials to speak of for this group and I wouldn't expect any to appear at this late stage. The only thing I would have any investment in would be for Colombia to win the group if they can sneak a draw against the hosts, but even that seems a remote possibility. If you're desperate to back something then back Colombia to win the group at 5.0 with Bwin. But, personally I'd leave alone.
Group B Outrights
A more interesting group this one. We have Brazil, Paraguay, Ecuador and Venezuela involved and 3 of these should be in with a chance of qualification. Brazil should have no problem racking up maximum points as none of these teams pose them a serious threat at all. But, the fight for second spot should be interesting between Paraguay and Ecuador. Whilst Paraguay have more pedigree and also more recognisable names it is by no means a foregone conclusion. Ecuador have been to recent World Cups and always have a good team if not outstanding individuals. With Roque Santa Cruz hopelessly out of form they will look to new Bundesliga champion Lucas Barrios of Dortmund as their talisman. If he gets going then they may well win through, but I'm happy to take a chance he doesn't. Dortmund had a smallish squad and he has played a lot of minutes, it would be no surprise if this was a tournament too far for him. I'll be taking a stab at Ecuador finishing Top 2 at a price of 2.6 with Bwin.
Group C Outrights
Another group with only 1 whipping boy. The other 3 teams look like they could all possibly qualify. The teams involved are Mexico, Chile, Uruguay and Peru. If we discount Peru, and we should that leaves us with 3 teams who, on paper at least, have very little to choose between them. Chile have become a bit tighter at the back since the removal of Marcelo Bielsa after the World Cup, but it has come at the expense of attacking intent. Uruguay have looked less impressive since their fantastic achievements at the World Cup and Diego Forlan cut a very sad figure at Atletico Madrid at times last season. Mexico have looked more impressive now they have found a free-scoring striker in Javier hernandez of Man Utd. But, they have only just finished a gruelling CONCACAF tournament in the USA last week. Whilst they should have had long enough to recover it has definitely been factored in to prices of them as third fav's for the group. Especially since Chicarito has been left out. They have named a very young and, apart from Gio Dos Santos, home-based squad in what looks like a tournament for experience and experimenting on their part. It is for this reason I would look at Chile and Uruguay to qualify, but some tight matches in doing so. Don't expect goals in this group. I'm plumping for Uruguay mostly on the back of Luis Suarez firing and Forlan maybe looking for a move. They can be backed at 2.5 with Bet365 to win the group and I'll take that.
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