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Wednesday, 6 July 2011

The Copa's Half Full...

Well, all the teams have now played once in the Copa America, and it's been a fairly damp squib so far. Both Argentina and Brazil failed to win their opening matches and now will be keen to get a win to ease their passages to the knockout stages. This is particularly important to Argentina with them being the hosts and the country still in mourning at River Plate's first ever relegation. Personally I'm hoping to pick some winners this time as I'm well aware all the upsets have cost me and you dearly so far!

Argentina v Colombia, Thursday 0145
First up is again the hosts, this time taking on tipped outsiders Colombia. Both underwhelmed in their opening matches. Argentina had to come from behind to grasp a draw from minnows Bolivia and Colombia failed to add to a solitary goal in 45 minutes against a poor 10 man Costa Rica side. I have always had faith in the Argie's to improve, mostly because they have Messi, but my faith is being tested. Coach Batista supposedly tried to mimic Barcelona in the first match in an effort to bring out Messi's best form, and it failed. He had looked impressive in recent matches though so I would expect to see them revert to a formula that suits the team as a whole rather than just their best player. Colombia haven't scored more than 2 in a match in over 3 years, and I knowingly went against form in their first match. If they couldn't put more than 1 past a 10 man Costa Rica B team then I'm beginning to fear for their longevity in the tournament. I think Argentina might nick this, but I don't think they'll run away with it. I'll back under 2.5 goals at a price of 1.95 with Bet365.

Bolivia v Costa Rica, Thursday 2315
The other game in Group A is between 2 of the lesser sides in the tournament in Bolivia and Costa Rica's under 22 side. I was very impressed with the organisation Bolivia showed in holding off Argentina in the main in their first match. They might have got lucky with their goal, but they probably deserved something from the match. Costa Rica were just lucky that Colombia didn't seem overly bothered in extending their lead from 1-0, even when the Costa Ricans were reduced to 10 men before half time. I think Bolivia will view this as very winnable, and a boost to their hopes of making the knockout stages, against the odds. I think William Hill are taking a chance at 2.0 on a Bolivia win and I'll be taking those odds.

Uruguay v Chile, Friday 2315
The two favourites for Group B meet late on Friday night in a match that will probably guarantee qualification for the winner. Uruguay were heavily tipped in a lot of media outlets to challenge Brazil and Argentina, but I still think their looking out of form since their great World Cup. This was somewhat backed up in their opening match with them falling behind and ultimately drawing with Peru. Luis Suarez got their goal, and he looks in great nick. Chile took on Mexico's C team in their opening match and emerged with a 2-1 victory. Mexico had sent an Under 22 side as guests and this was further weakened when 8 of that squad were sent home for liaising with ladies of ill repute. With all the upsets going on though, their victory looks quite impressive. They will definitely find it more difficult against Uruguay's impressive defence though. I fancy another draw in this one, with both teams as keen to avoid defeat as they are to win. Back it at a best priced 3.25 with Ladbrokes.

Peru v Mexico, Saturday 0145
The second match in Group B should be fairly interesting. Whoever wins this one should have a shot at reaching the knockout stages in their last group games. A draw would be ok for Peru, but with Chile left to play I would expect them to really go for this match. Mexico really are an unknown quantity to all but keen followers of their domestic league. It is a real chance for their young players to impress both their national manager and also any scouts at the games. For this reason they should not be underestimated, but equally Peru will rightly be favs for this match up. This being said I think Sportingbet have gone way out on a limb pricing Peru at 2.5 and I'd advise taking those odds now before they go.

Brazil v Paraguay, Saturday 2000
The evening match on Saturday sees my tournament tips Brazil taking on Paraguay. Brazil stuttered in their first match, having trouble breaking down a resiliant Venezuela side and finishing up 0-0. Venezuela have recently impressed in youth tournaments and some of the more impressive juniors are now making a name for themselves in the senior side. This is making Group C look like the most interesting group as every team has a chance of qualifying. Brazil are no longer the Samba, Joga Bonita side of old. They have something of a 'broken team', with the centre backs and central midfield instructed to stay back and hold whilst the full backs and forwards push on. Neymar looked disappointing to those expecting some sort of Messi Mark II with quotes of a £40mil price tag knocking around. He is not one to battle when it's tough going. Paraguay also opened up with a 0-0 draw, this time against Ecuador. I personally view Ecuador as better than Paraguay in a team sense and can easily see them being over-run by Brazil in this. Brazil will be keen to pick up a win and a cushion in their last match against the always tricky Ecuadorians. Back them -1.0 asian with Victor Chandler at 2.18.

Venezuela v Ecuador, Saturday 2230
Final match of these second round of games has 2 under-rated sides meeting. Both Venezuela and Ecuador picked up draws in their opening matches when starting as outsiders. In the case of Venezuela, they may well be a side to watch in the coming years. As mentioned, they have done well in youth tournaments in the last decade and it looks like they're beginning to reap the rewards. With Paraguay looking tired, and Uruguay with a World Cup hangover, they may well even qualify for Brazil 2014. Ecuador have become something of a fixture at World Cup's recently. Whilst they haven't got any superstars except maybe Antonio Valencia, they are a fantastic team who punch well above their weight. Goals have always been something of a problem for them though. However commma I can see some goals in this one. I think both sides will see this as the most winnable match and throw men forward accordingly. William Hill are as long as 2.5 for over 2.5 goals and I think that should be snapped up.

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