This weeks title refers to the fact that many leagues around Europe shut up shop over the Xmas period and therefore this column will shrink considerably when this happens. So we should strike while the irons still warm, as it were. It's been a decent recent run so let's hope this continues on into this festive period!
Week Seventeen
Swansea v Norwich - Win 2.36 points.
Man City v Man Utd - Lose 3 points.
Levante v Mallorca - Win 2.1 points.
Inter Milan v Napoli - Lose 2 points.
Stuttgart v Schalke 04 - Win 3.8 points.
Monchengladbach v Mainz 05 - Win 1.8 points.
Gaziantepspor v Karabukspor - Lose 2 points.
Fenerbahce v Istanbul BB - Lose 2 points.
Total - Win 1.06 points.
Running Total - Up 7.45 points.
Music this week from a slightly more mainstream choice with The Gaslight Anthem and American Slang.
Liverpool v Aston Villa, Saturday 1500
Those of you that follow me on Twitter @TopTopTips will probably have noticed that I tend to see Liverpool as often underpriced by the bookmakers. By this I mean I often think the odds are far shorter than they should be. I think the reasons for this are two-fold. There is the history the club has which comes with the reputation that they are a big club and should be beating those who are traditionally much smaller and also as there will often be plenty of money on Liverpool from punters (particularly in matches at Anfield). These things add up to them being shorter than I would price them from a step back. If you look at results over the past two seasons in particular it is clear to see they have regressed well below the Manchester sides as well as Chelsea and probably the likes of Tottenham and Arsenal too, although it could be argued Arsenal are going away. This weekend they take on an Aston Villa side who look to me like they are beginning to find a system that Paul Lambert and the players agree on and are happy in. This has meant that Darren Bent has been relegated behind summer signing Christian Benteke as the Belgian offers far more to the overall team than the English goal-getter. Liverpool's defence has not always looked brilliant when up against a muscular forward and Benteke fits this description.
As mentioned, Villa look to me like they have finally turned a corner and look a lot harder to beat than at any point in the last eighteen months. Paul Lambert has gone back to basics in general and has picked players who have more physical attributes than technical, with the exception of Stephen Ireland, and gone for a relatively defensive approach. This was similar at Norwich where graft was in general valued over fancy trickery and was very successful as the players were possibly aware that they were being given a chance and had to work very hard to keep a place in both the team and the division. Villa are a hard working side now, epitomised by Benteke and Andreas Weimann in attack and complimented by the flair of Ireland being given a role. He is the only player in the side really aloud outside of a strict system and will hope to find gaps to exploit when given a chance.
Back Aston Villa +2 Handicap at 1.72 with Bet365. 2.5 points.
Norwich City v Wigan Athletic, Saturday 1500
Another team that have turned their fortunes round this season are Paul Lambert's old side, Norwich. Under the new manager Chris Hughton they took a little while to settle in, but are now looking pretty solid for a mid-table finish again. A lot of their shaky start can probably be put down to a whole new centre of defence and also the lack of creativity in midfield. The pairing of new signings Michael Turner and Sebastian Bassong at centre back looks one of the better in the whole Premier League lately and considering it was under £4million for the pair looks an absolute steal now. The improvement in midfield has coincided with Wes Hoolahan's reinstatement in the side. The little Irishman is a great player 'in the hole' and should probably have earned a crack at the top division before now. The current hot streak of form Anthony Pilkington is also in from wide has seen Grant Holt finding last seasons performance level again also and Norwich look very good to me. They've already beaten Manchester United and Arsenal!
Wigan have traditionally been a bogey side for me when betting. They're capable of performing very well when everything clicks, and this seems to happen when I'm against them, so consider yourselves forewarned. This season they have started as slowly as ever, interspersed with the odd impressive performance. I am not at all convinced that Roberto Martinez is the man for the club, his tendency to always go for passing out of trouble is not always the right choice at a club who are likely to be around the relegation spots on the whole. That's not to say he's not a good manager, just maybe not at the right club. He also seems to have a blind spot when it comes to defenders of any quality. He has gone to Spain again this summer to sign Adrian Lopez and Ivan Ramis and I'm not really convinced La Liga is the place to go for defenders, particularly to import to England. The slower pace of the game and reduced physicality means most who come over are shocked and don't fare well, and I think both of these signings fit that description.
Back Norwich City at 2.3 on Betfair. 2 points.
Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1700
This one is simply from looking at some basic pointers and acting accordingly. Mallorca have been a perfectly decent home side for a number of seasons now, and this has continued this time out. They have a record of played seven at home, won three, drawn one and lost three. For a side that seems to aspire to little more than surviving these days that is not bad at all. Athletic Bilbao have moved from a generally backable side last season to one that ought to be layed unless there's particular reason this time. The manager Marcelo Bielsa's methods are only considered effective for a short period when in day to day contact as players and this has been the case here. The Argentine is a notoriously demanding and eccentric coach and it seems many of the side are simply shattered and no longer responding to him.
Back Mallorca at 2.5 with BlueSq. 2 points.
Chievo v Roma, Sunday 1400
Chievo have had a very good home record to thank for them staying in Italy's top division for so long when many expected them to head back to the lower divisions a long time ago. They have not had mountains of money to spend or any huge gate receipts or sponsorship, they have simply relied upon good management, signings and tactics. Italy is obviously a slow, defence minded league and Chievo certainly fit that bill. They are well organised and have only conceded nine in eight home games, of which three were in a dreadful performance against a good Lazio side. They'll make most sides thoroughly earn a victory at their place.
Roma have been hit and miss so far this season as they are again restructuring under Zdenek Zeman's charge. He has a reputation he largely forged in a previous spell at the club for attacking football and having promoted Pescara last season from Serie B he has taken the reigns after last seasons underwhelming Spanish experiment. They currently lie in fifth spot but have conceded twenty six goals already to show they do not rely upon the backline to gain wins, it's more a case of 'we'll get one more than you'! I think they're very short at odds on here.
Lay Roma at 1.97 on Betfair. 2 points.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt, Saturday 1430
First tip from the Bundesliga is this seasons surprise package Frankfurt travelling to recent champions Wolfsburg. Since that Bundesliga title Wolfsburg have been steadily slipping due to numerous player and manager changes, none of which have been at all successful. Whilst it is entirely natural that other larger clubs would pick off the best of the side that won the league, the speed with which it all fell apart has been quite something. Even Steve McClaren got a brief, awful reign in the hotseat. This season they currently find themselves in amongst the relegation players in fourteenth position, although they are some way clear of the bottom three. They also have a pretty poor home record so far of having won only one, drawn three and lost three. They are also struggling to score and conceding with alarming regularity too. They have the worst goal difference outside of the bottom three as we stand. Although they have only lost one of the last six they are still leaking goals and have played sides on days when their oppositions performances have not been great.
Eintracht Frankfurt were one of the promoted trio over the summer and look likely to head into the Xmas break in a European spot. They got off to a brilliant start and most would have expected them to already have reverted back to a more mixed set of results and fallen down the table, but this has not happened. They have had some awful performances, but generally they've not looked at all out of place in the top division. They've also beaten plenty of good sides so far and look a little under-valued by the bookmakers in this to me.
Lay Wolfsburg at 2.06 on Betfair. 2 points.
Werder Bremen v Nurnberg, Sunday 1630
Two more sides having very mixed seasons are meeting on Sunday afternoon in Bremen. Werder currently sit in the bottom half of the table having not really sorted out their tactical approach. They seem to have reverted back to a more gung-ho style after last seasons unsuccessful attempt to try sorting out their eternally horrendous defence. All that seemed to do was stop them scoring and they were only conceding slightly less. All this being said, they have generally been backable at home. This season they have won four, drawn one and lost two in Bremen. Those two were to Bayern Munich and the impressive Bayer Leverkusen too, so no real disgrace in that at all. I'm taking a chance on them responding to last weeks thrashing and getting a good result.
Nurnberg sit one place below Werder in the table at present, but have not had anywhere near as many good performances as their opponents. With little money to spend and no real tradition to attract players they have tended to rely upon a defensive approach to their tactics and grinding out results. Strikers being the most valuable of assets has meant that bringing in a cutting edge has eluded them too. So far this season they have only scored sixteen in sixteen and only six in eight away from home. Away from home has been particularly poor with only two wins, one draw and five defeats and thirteen conceded in that time. Werder have a great chance to get back on track.
Back Werder Bremen at 1.9 with Coral. 2 points.
Eskisehirspor v Bursaspor, Friday 1800
This is going up a bit later than usual so sorry if this is too late for anyone. Eskisehirspor are a personal favourite side of mine in the Super Lig due to their tendency to stay with the big boys most of the season, yet be priced up like a mid-table side in general. With such low liquidity in the market and a lack of knowledge outside the Istanbul three this is no real surprise, but should allow us to make some extra profits when winning with them. They currently sit fourth in the table with a frankly brilliant home record so far. They have won four, drawn two and only lost one and scored seventeen goals in that time with eight conceded. In seasons past the against column may well have been much lower, but at the cost of any attacking threat. They look a much more rounded side now and a challenge for anyone in the division.
Bursaspor have failed to kick on from their Super Lig title of a few years back. They have attempted to sign older Turkish players returning from abroad and players like Scott Carson and Kenny Miller who have excelled, but fallen out of favour in their leagues. Probably not surprisingly this has not been a roaring success and they have had mixed results for the past two seasons and show no signs of that changing. They have become draw specialists away from home with a record of won two, drawn four and lost only one. Whilst that shows they are set up to be hard to beat away, Eskisehir have the ability to blow them away.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.37 with BetVictor. 2 points.
Galatasaray v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1800
This simply has to be included! The biggest game in the Super Lig season is always the Istanbul derby between perennial giants Gala and Fener. So far this season Gala have led from the beginning and barring a few slips after Champions League matches they have been pretty imperious. Whilst Fener have signed attackers for the last couple of seasons, Gala have had a more team led strategy of purchasing which has seen them have by far the better, more balanced side. At home so far they have only lost one match to Karabukspor in a strange match where they never got going at all. It definitely seems a rick in form so I'd probably discount it. It was the start of a poorer run where they were definitely focussing their attentions on the Champions League and now that is out of the way I would expect them to kick on again and xtend their lead on top of the table. Last weekends 3-1 away win at Sivasspor shows that might well be starting.
Fenerbahce have looked excellent at home in the Super Lig and Europa League this season, but have looked anything but when on their travels. They have only been beaten once away in the league, but have only won once and drawn five, many when they were lucky to escape to be honest. When you also bear in mind that of those seven trips only Eskisehirspor could be counted as a tough visit so it is far from a good set of results. They will definitely raise their game for this one, but I'm not sure it will be enough when looking at their previous results. They have the attacking quality, but with Burak Yilmaz finding his feet at Gala the defence should be very worried.
Back Galatasaray at 2.05 with BetVictor. 2 points.
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