Last weekend saw us make a small profit overall, which was added to again slightly midweek for followers on Twitter. You can find me @TopTopTips if you're interested in a few more non-blog tips. It does tend to be the only place where I publish midweek as I haven't the time to do a full article midweek.
There has been an awful lot of football between the weekends this time. Most major European leagues have had a full programme of fixtures in the absence of the UEFA competitions. In England we saw Man City gain slightly on city neighbours United after thrashing WBA 4-0 and seeing United surprisingly lose 1-0 to a resurgent Wigan side. With United being five points clear still they really should hang on, but they haven't impresses in ages and had better hope this was a small stumble and not the wheels coming off.
In Germany there was a top of the table clash between giants Dortmund and Bayern Munich in Dortmund. BvB had let their lead slip to just two points heading into the match and had looked a shadow of themselves at times recently. Bayern have been blowing sides out of the water over the last month and would look for a win to get ahead and steam to the Bundesliga title. Fortunately for those that followed my advice and backed Dortmund for the title at 6.5 pre-season and backed Dortmund to win this match were happy as Dortmund managed a 1-0 win. They really should now have enough to get over the finishing line in first place.
Music comes from In The Red with To Shake To Tremble.
Liverpool v Everton, 1230 Saturday
First up is the FA CUP Semi Final between the two Merseyside clubs. Liverpool's league form has been the worst in the whole division except for Wolves for the past ten matches. This has seen them slip from having a slim chance of a Champions League spot, to having more chance of finishing in the bottom half of the table. This has been attributed by those that still think Kenny Dalglish has the faintest idea what he's doing, to the side concentrating on the cup competitions. This would be understandable as the match got very close, but to slack off for over a month is no preparation for any match at all. The club sacked Damian Comolli this week, the head of player recruitment, in a move which presumably places blame at his feet. I would agree he should take a share of the blame, but to continue with Dalglish would still see them in dire straits, in my opinion. This is no bad thing for us though, as laying Liverpool should continue to make us money.
Everton started the season terribly, before having their usual revival, and are now looking likely to finish ahead of Liverpool. The January signings of Landon Donavan and Steven Pienaar on loan and Nikola Jelavic from Rangers have both been successful. Donovan added a spark to their play and made those around him improve their efforts before returning to LA Galaxy. Pienaar has returned and again showed the form he was never afforded the opportunity to show at Spurs and Jelavic has been a revelation. The Croatian has shown lots of nice touches, some powerful play and has added goals to a side that constantly struggles in front of goal. Everton come into this match off the back of thrashing Sunderland 4-0 midweek and full of confidence. They will see this match as a chance to add some silverware to have something tangible to show for Moyes brilliant reign.
Back Everton at 3.25 on Betfair.
Tottenham v Chelsea, 1800 Sunday
The other FA Cup Semi Final sees Chelsea lining up against Spurs. Spurs league form has completely petered out of late in much the same way as Liverpool's has. They look devoid of motivation at times, and the players that have served them so well for a lot of the season seem to be failing to find their form at this crucial point in the season. Aaron Lennon's injury combined with Luka Modric and Scott Parker's combined loss of form and Gareth Bale refusing to stick to his best position are all contributing. Some of this can sadly be laid at Redknapp's door. Bale should be pulled aside and told in no uncertain terms that he serves the team far better on the wing than in the centre. Modric and Parker have played nearly every minute of every match and are now shattered. And with all his signings there really should be a replacement for Aaron Lennon. They still should really be concentrating on Champions League qualification, but will want to reach the final of this too. It may well be another match too far sadly.
Chelsea have looked more resilient under Di Matteo's management than they did under Villas Boas earlier in the season. This has stabilised their performances somewhat, but has done nothing to address the major issues of the sides rapidly increasing age and deteriorating abilities. Di Matteo has restored the likes of Lampard and Drogba to the starting line up, and it is still just about getting results, but they are not the force they once were. Lampard in particular has had his role restricted to playing in front of the defence lately as another man in their own half to aid the defence. Personally I think they have better players in the squad for that role, but if it keeps morale up then I can see the argument for it. Chelsea have been hit and miss, but seem to be raising themselves for the big games.
Back Chelsea at 2.9 with BetVictor.
Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca, 1700 Sunday
A team that has featured often this season in the column are Athletic Bilbao. I thought it would be interesting to see how Marcelo Bielsa got on once appointed, and it certainly has been that! He has transformed a side renowned for getting by on a physical approach to one that is now still keeping a physical edge, but also playing some fantastic stuff. They have progressed to the Europa League Semi Finals and will be very keen to win a first competition in a few years. They are also in the Copa Del Rey final in Spain, but face Barcelona so have a much smaller chance in that. These cup exploits have effected their league form. They have been as high as fifth, but have slipped out of Champions League contention of late. They have also not been as dominant at home as they usually are. They have only won seven of sixteen at home and can definitely be beaten there.
Mallorca have again struggled to keep their heads above water for large chunks of the season. They are another side that is permanently without cash in La Liga and are without any unpolished diamonds of late. They have had the likes of Samuel Eto'o in the not so distant past to give them that extra bit of class and then an extra cash influx when it comes to selling these stars on. This season they have been a comfortable mid-table side, they've won enough to keep well clear of the dross at the bottom of the table. This midweek they had an excellent result too, presumably as the pressure is off and they can now play for fun. They won away at Santander 3-0 and looked excellent from the off. With Bilbao's eyes elsewhere, they could take advantage again.
Back Mallorca and the Draw Double Chance at 2.25 with Coral.
Udinese v Inter Milan, 1945 Saturday
A clash of two sides whose fortunes have vastly differed this season. Udinese have fallen off the chase for the Serie A title in the last month, but there should be no shame in that for a side who sold their best three players last summer. They were unbeaten at home until well into the new year and have not been soundly beaten all season. They're a very organised side with the goals of the evergreen Antonio Di Natale and some South American flair chucked in for good measure. Di Natale again scored in the 3-1 win against Parma last weekend. They were then beaten 3-1 by Roma in midweek. But, Di Natale never plays two matches in a row in any sort of fitness now and Roma are very good when the mood takes them. Udinese still go eleven wins, four draws and a solitary loss at home, and have scored twenty eight whilst only conceding ten. They should have enough to see an Inter side in permanent transition.
As mentioned Inter are again in transition. The second new manager of the season was appointed just over a week ago with youth team boss Stramaccioni stepping up. Claudio Ranieri initially holted an alarming start to the season, but recently results had again gone south. This did seem to coincide with the return to the side of Wesley Sneijder. The Dutchman is some player when on top of his game, but that has not been the case since the World Cup Final for me. That season ended with Inter winning the treble of Serie A, Copa Italia and the Champions League and Holland reached the World Cup Final with Sneijder integral to both sides. He has always had issues with his attitude, and he seems to believe his career has peaked I think and eased right off. He strolls around quite often now seemingly believing he should always have the ball, but then does little with it.
Back Udinese at 2.5 with William Hill.
Hamburg v Hannover 96, 1430 Saturday
First up from Germany is the clash between strugglers Hamburg and upwardly mobile Hannover. Hamburg's issues have been listed here before, but basically can all be levelled at the feet of Sporting Director Frank Arnesen. His policy of buying half of the Chelsea youth team he put together has not worked, mostly because they are nearly to a man, dreadful. The likes of Jeffrey Bruma and Michael Mancienne may have been well spoken of three years ago, but now people have seen how they have developed it is now wonder Chelsea were willing to give them away. They have slipped perilously close to a first ever relegation being now two points above the last relegation spot taken up by Hertha. They still desperately need points, but are not looking likely to get many.
Hannover have again exceeded expectations this season. As it's now two seasons in a row of achieving above predicted wisdom, those predictions may well be revised next term. They are a well drilled unit of a team who rely upon a tremendous work ethic and no stars to mention. They have had Mame Diouf, formerly of Man Utd, scoring a lot since signing in January, but he is hardly a star. He fits well into their system as he is a physical player who can thrive without a lot of support. This is ideal for a side who don't commit many forward. They do have a pretty poor away record, and for that reason I'll be backing a draw.
Back the Draw at 3.1 with Boylesports.
Besiktas v Galatasaray, 1700 Saturday
The Super Lig enters it's first year of end of season play-offs this weekend. Thanks to the corruption charges against Fener last season the powers that be decided this would be the best way to ensure fairness. Gala have dominated proceedings so far and will be slightly disappointed to have their lea halved, but confident of holding on for the title. They have by far the best team in the division, with strength in every position. Muslera in goal is likely to get a huge move I would imagine on the back of a very impressive seasons performances. Then you have Mellberg at centre half and the power of Felipe Melo in midfield. Up front you also have the guaranteed goals of Milan Baros, and also Johan Elmander fining the divisions defences easy pickings most weekends.
Besiktas picked up enough after xmas to push through to a spot in the top four and a chance to battle for the title/Champions League spot. They've been hit and miss for a while now, and have gone down the route of overspending on 'names' from abroad like Quaresma and Guti in recent years. Whilst they do occasionally shine, they look much closer to being there just for the money nine times out of ten. They have been decent at home, but for a top side four defeats is actually a few over the season. I would expect Gala's team to triumph in this one.
Back Galatasaray at 2.37 with BlueSq.
Fenerbahce v Trabzonspor, 1700 Sunday
The other two sides involved in the play-offs are the remaining giants of Turkish football in Fener and Trabzon. Both have had spells where they've flatered, but come through strongly. Fener have the individual players to do brilliantly, they're possibly better than Gala on paper, but often it all doesn't quite fit. The signing of Moussa Sow in January showed intent on their part, and he does look very good, but it isn't enough to make them complete. The defence can be very brittle and can be gotten at. They will likely fall short over the course of the play-offs as Gala are a far better away side.
Trabzon had problems keeping up with domestic football whilst they were left in European competitions, but have since picked up since their exit. The goals of Yilmaz have again made draws into wins for them. There is no more reliable scorer in Turkey than Yilmaz, he scores all sorts too, including freekicks. He has been in good form of late, and that bodes well for Trabzon's Super Lig challenge as he makes them look a much more threatening outfit. They've drawn their last four too, including the same match two matches ago. It was 1-1 in that one, and I'm tempted to have a half stakes punt at the same occurring again.
Back 1-1 Correct Score for half stakes at 6.5 with Ladbrokes.
For a little extra treat I've cast my eyes over the Grand National. I would back Black Apalachi EW and also Seabass and Giles Cross on the nose. I wouldn't be putting the rent on them though!
No comments:
Post a Comment