But, not around here just yet! We're clinging on to about as even as you can get last weekend! More than anything I hope it shows that over the past two seasons of doing this column I have learnt from my mistakes and improved my selections. I think it also shows the benefits of working on assigning points to the 'value' in each bet. My theory was always that the way to make long term profit was to look for value bets and hopefully this will be proven come the end of the season and into the future.
Week 27
Reading v Wigan - Lose 2 points.
Norwich v Everton - Win 1.8 points.
Celta Vigo v Granada - Lose 2 points.
Atalanta v Roma - Win 3.02 points.
Hannover v Hamburg - Win 3 points.
Monchengladbach v Dortmund - Lose 2 points.
Istanbul BB v Eskisehirspor - Win 1.72 points.
Sivasspor v Besiktas - Lose 2.5 points.
Totals - Up 0.04 points.
Running Total - Up 49.64 points.
My musical selection this week is from Vic Ruggiero with A Lovely Beginning.
Everton v Reading, Saturday 1500
Everton traditionally start seasons slowly and are forced to embark on a turnaround after Xmas to see them into the European spots. However comma this season they have seemingly gone the opposite direction and charged out of the blocks, only to tail off from winter onwards. This was originally put down to them missing the talismanic presence of Marouane Fellaini after he picked up a suspension during this period, but the lethargy of performances has still continued with his return to the side. A lot of the focus has been on Nikola Jelavic after his disappointing form since October, but the whole side looks stale to me. They've never been blessed with great flair so if the effort drops they're far from unbeatable. They may have picked up a 3-1 win against Oldham on Tuesday night, but they were given some scares by a side languishing in League 2 at the moment to put it in perspective. Looking back through previous results they have also only been ahead at half time in one of the last ten matches. All this in mind makes them look a very short price.
Reading looked like they might well embark on the sort of second half of the season run that they did in their last two seasons in the Championship going into the new year. They were battling back from seemingly lost games and with Adam Le Fondre coming off the bench they looked threatening. Possibly due to this knowledge of their tactics though they have been somewhat stopped in their tracks of late. They have lost their last two matches, although a physical encounter at the Britannia Stadium against Stoke was possibly the one match all season that suited them least. Last weekends 3-0 loss at home to Wigan though will need a response as they are a side they can't afford to let escape from them in the relegation battle. This match is a chance to get a morale boosting point or three.
Lay Everton at 1.43 on Betfair. 2 points.
Sunderland v Fulham, Saturday 1500
I think there's an excellent price to be had here, although I understand the reasons behind it. Sunderland have not won in four matches now after a few good results pulled them out of the real relegation scrap. But, if you look at the last four matches the Mackems have played it is not an easy run. They drew at home to an excellent Swansea side 0-0, they lost 2-1 away at Reading when they were still rolling, lost at home 0-1 to an Arsenal side on a good day and then were beaten 2-1 away at WBA last weekend. The other thing you'll notice is that even in a poor run, Sunderland have not been soundly beaten. A trademark of Martin O'Neill sides has been that they are hard to beat and this has continued in his Sunderland reign. Confidence should not have been too harshly damaged due to being close in every match as well as the fact I still retain confidence in O'Neill as a motivator.
Generally I'm no huge fan of historical data when weighing up a bet, but sometimes things are too clear to ignore. Fulham's away form comes into this category. They have now been through some perfectly capable managers and not one of them was able to turn this around. Martin Jol's name can now be added to that list it seems. They go won two, drawn five and lost six so far on their travels this season to make it only ten wins since the start of the 2009/10 season on the road. In this time they have had some excellent players, and Dimitar Berbatov amongst the best of them this season, but no matter the personnel they cannot turn this form around. Bearing this in mind and what should be a tough game they look a touch too short to me.
Lay Fulham at 3.4 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Tottenham v Arsenal, Sunday 1600
The match with the most at stake this weekend is the North London derby. Tottenham have a four point lead over their neighbours heading into this match and will want to extend it as much as possible with the hunt for the third automatic qualifying spot for the Champions League up for grabs. After the abuse Andres Villas Boas took in much of the press at the start of the season for not being Harry Redknapp and upsetting Chelsea's delicate little lambs John Terry and Frank Lampard, it must be very satisfying. When you also take into account he has been somewhat handicapped in the transfer market by Redknapp's large contracts dished out to ageing players he has done a truly exceptional job. Then there's Gareth Bale. I'll admit that I have been arguing that he's not as good as the press would love to believe, but there's no ignoring his contributions lately. Eight goals in his last six games have gone a long way to keep Tottenham near the peak of the table when players like Emanuel Adebayor have looked disinterested. His presence alone should be giving Arsenal something to think about.
Arsenal are not having the best season of Wenger's reign, but I still have an element of sympathy for the levels of abuse he gets at times. There is clearly an agenda at Arsenal that considers making a profit as a success for the club as a whole and Wenger has bought into that for better or worse. That the club again reported a large profit just this week and are by no means out of the race for the Champions League qualifying spots means that the board will be likely to view it as an ok season all in. The problem comes with the fans having seen all conquering sides not that long ago and not coming to terms with the fact that others have caught up on scouting and have considerably more wealth. I think Wenger has numerous faults, not least a seeming refusal to adapt to a changing landscape, but who would do better is quite a question. I think the Bale factor has to tip this one well in the home sides favour so I'll have to be against the Gunners.
Back Tottenham at 2.4 with StanJames. 2 points.
Osasuna v Athletic Bilbao, Saturday 1900
I was going to back Real Madrid earlier in the week at above 3.2, but they're in to 3.0 at the biggest now. With the La Liga title all but out of reach and an important midweek Champions League match with Manchester United on Wednesday I can't trust them to get the job done.
So I am turning to an old favourite side for this weekends Spanish selection, Osasuna. As I have mentioned before there is generally some value to be found in opposing 'name' sides in foreign leagues if there is good reason too. The weight of any money on these matches will be from casual punters in the main and they're much more likely to back a 'name' in a match, meaning the odds stay long on the underdog. Osasuna are as close to Stoke City as you will find in Spain with an emphasis on making a trip to their ground as intimidating as possible. They're a rough side who don't go in for pointless passing combinations when a good old punt will give them a chance for a scramble in the goalmouth. They started the season terribly, but are now up to mid-table on the back of returning to their home form of seasons passed. They go won five, drawn five and lost four at home and have scored twelve and only conceded eight in those matches.
Athletic Bilbao are on a monumental comedown after the achievements of last season. The side that knocked Man Utd out of the Europa League before losing the final has been a shadow following the sale of Javi Martinez to Bayern Munich and with Fernando Llorente reduced to sitting out before his summer move to Juventus. I've mentioned before the fact that Marcelo Bielsa is a tough manager to get on with for a prolonged period and this has been proven here, the strange thing is that he is even still in Bilbao. They are still not safe from relegation at all and a poor away record is a large contributor to this. They go won two, drawn three and lost seven whist scoring fourteen and conceding thirty. They'll find it tough to create chances in this one and will likely give Osasuna enough to punish them.
Back Osasuna at 2.4 with Coral. 2 points.
Catania v Inter Milan, Sunday 1400
The big match in Serie A this weekend is definitely the Napoli v Juventus match on Friday night. Whilst it is always tempting to pick a bet in the biggest matches it takes discipline to stay away if there's nothing there to grab you. Three weeks ago I would have been happy to lay Juventus as favs in this match, but Napoli are showing signs the pressure of actually being involved in a title race is getting to them with some poor results failing to take advantage of Juventus' slips. There's probably some value in the draw as neither will want to lose.
So, the match I am picking is again with my favourite Serie A side for betting this season, Catania, hosting Inter Milan. I thought that Catania's home form might well have tailed off and seen them drop to a comfortable mid-table position, but all credit to them as they seem to be going for a Europa League spot for next season. The side from Sicily were expected to struggle once manager Vincenzo Montella departed for Fiorentina, but they have actually improved and that is down to a home record the equal or better of many an established side. They go nine wins, two draws and two defeats in Sicily, scoring twenty one and only conceding ten. This goals against record is the equal second best in the table with Fiorentina, only behind the leaders Juventus.
Inter Milan have been a patchy side all season, with short bursts of amazing matches followed by a few weeks in the doldrums. This is probably to be expected in something of a transitional period for the club a couple of years after the highs of their treble win under Jose Mourinho. With many of the big names shipped out since to cut costs, and average age, there is a mixture of young players (and manager), very old heads and those that are probably done with the game. It is no wonder with all this upheaval that form has been non-existent. Their away form reads won six, drawn just one and lost six with nineteen scored and eighteen conceded. With Diego Milito now out injured again I wouldn't fancy them in a tough match like this.
Lay Inter Milan at 3.3 on Betfair. 2.5 points.
Borussia Dortmund v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430
I can't see any obvious value around in the Bundesliga this weekend so I'm going to take something of a punt on this one.
My thinking is that with a Champions League Last 16 tie in the balance at home to Shakhtar in the week, Dortmund will be saving their best players in the knowledge that the title is out of reach for them now. They have also actually been better away this season with three of their four losses coming at home so far. With key attackers like Lewandowski, Blaszcykowski and Reus all likely to play little or no part in this one they will be very likely to struggle for goals. The problem for them in the Bundesliga this season has been that they don't have back-up for the first choice players of anywhere near the same quality and they are struggling to go all out for two competitions.
Hannover are a column favourite due to the fact they rarely have an awful match and so can be bet upon with some confidence, particularly at home. Their away record so far this season is poor for a side with European aspirations with two wins, a draw and eight defeats so far. They have scored eighteen, which isn't too bad, but conceded twenty seven is those eleven matches. I said it was a long shot, but if Dortmund's best attackers are missing and with key centre back Mats Hummels also likely to be rested after an injury Hannover have a chance.
Lay Borussia Dortmund at 1.35 on Betfair. 1.5 points.
Eskisehirspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
First up in the Super Lig this weekend is Eskisehirspor hosting leaders Galatasaray. Eskisehir have been a very strong side at home for a few seasons now and this has not changed this term either, although a poor start to the season has made the stats read slightly skewed. They go won five, drawn four and lost two at home so far and have scored twenty and conceded just thirteen. They had been struggling for goals in previous seasons so the goals for column must be particularly pleasing for them. They haven't been on top form since the winter break, but have still only been beaten once in the last six matches at present. They have also kept clean sheets in three of six to show they are still as tight at the back as ever.
I am still hugely disappointed in this Galatasaray side from their Champions League match with Schalke. The reigning Turkish champions had made a statement of intent by signing both Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba on huge contracts with the presumed intention of making a decent fist of the Champions League. What the club seemed to forget is that their defence is appalling and in far greater need of aid. If anything the signing of Sneijder in particular has unbalanced the side in the same way his presence had at Inter since Jose Mourinho's departure. He seems to think he's earned a choice of position and wants the old number ten role of simply hovering and waiting to pick passes. Sadly increased player fitness means he gets less time on the ball having been closed down, and most players are unfamiliar with a system to accommodate such a role. Drogba on the other hand looked a class above everyone else on the pitch in every match he has played. They came back from 2-0 down to win 4-2 at home to a desperately out of form Orduspor side last weekend, but I think this shows how vulnerable they are at times and this is a tough match.
Lay Galatasaray at 2.09 on Betfair. 2 points.
Kayserispor v Mersin Idman Yurdu, Sunday 1130
I will very rarely put up an odds on shot in Turkey as I don't feel any side, barring Gala at home, are to be trusted at short odds. However, I am going to break from that this week as I still think there's some value in this bet. Kayserispor currently lie comfortably mid-table and will be pleased with that. They are still only two points off the side in the Europa League qualifying spot and should still harbour hopes of a push for a European spot. Their home record is particularly excellent so far and reads won five, drawn four and lost two with thirteen scored and just seven conceded. That goals against column is absolutely amazing to me for a side who you would put as maybe the ninth or tenth best side in the division at the start of the season. They actually lost both those two matches in October too, so they're unbeaten at home four months.
Mersin Idman Yurdu were a side worth taking the occasional punt on when away from home last season as they were going for a win in every match, and got some good results in doing so. Unfortunately this season they sit bottom of the table and look doomed to spend next season in the Bank Asya Lig. Their away form is hopeless with no wins, two draws and seven losses with ten goals scored and twenty two conceded. In a low scoring league like Turkey getting ten away from home in nine matches in not bad, but it probably shows that they're still attacking when their defence isn't up to preventing the opposition taking advantage.
Back Kayserispor at 1.8 with Coral. 2 points.
No comments:
Post a Comment