And on to the second of my World Cup Semi-Final previews and it's a repeat of the Euro 2008 final in this one. Germany have been the more impressive team so far and will be looking to gain revenge tomorrow night. So, without any further ado, here is my preview...
Germany v Spain, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Wednesday 7th July
Defence
We should see both teams lining up pretty similarly to their Quarter-Finals for this one. Sapin have had a settled back 4 now for around 2 years and barring injury it shouldn't change for this game. At left-back will be everyone's favourite injury-feigning, rolling around, card-waving, utter s**t, Joan Capdevilla! I always thought of him as a steady defender who provided useful attacking support. I suppose that still applies, but he has tarnished his reputation with his antics in the Portugal game for me. At centre back it will again be the Barcelona pair of Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol. These 2 have not looked that solid to me so far, Paraguay went at them for the first 20 minutes in the Quarter-Final and worried them. Germany are capable, as we've seen, of maintaining those levels for 90 minutes and I think this could prove crucial. At right-back it's Sergio Ramos. Along with David Villa I think he's the only Spanish player to emerge with his reputation enhanced. He has been up and down like a yo-yo every game and has rarely been caught out of position as well as teeing up scoring opportunities for the strikers. Personally I would be tempted to bring in Carlos Marchena for Pique at centre back to provide a more experienced head, but at this late stage it would be a major shock if that happened.
For Germany it will likely be the same back 4 as in their hugely successful performance against Argentina. This will have Philip Lahm at right-back. Along with Ramos I think this guy is the best in the world at right-back. He has a seemingly endless supply of energy and pops up in defence and attack and is rarely out of position. A brilliant player and one that would improve any team in the world. At centre back it will likely be Jerome Boateng and Per Mertesacker. Boateng has just signed for Man City and looked very good in his favoured position against the Argie's. He was part of the effort in silencing Argentina's attackers, including Messi, and was very impressive whilst doing it. Very quick and physical and should have no problems adapting to the Premier League. Mertesacker is more like the brains of the operation. He isn't anywhere near as quick, but is good positionally and helps the less experienced Boateng out in that respect. At left-back it will be probably be Arne Friedrich, who even popped up to score in the last match! An experienced pro, he will be steady at the back and look to support in attack when the opportunity arises.
This match will probably rest on the midfield performances, but the defences will play a part. David Villa has looked devastating so far and the German's will look to shackle him as they did Messi. If they do that they will cut off the only real goal threat Spain have had so far. The Spanish will have to improve markedly to cope with Germany's constant, relentless attacking. If they don't then the Germans will overrun them.
Midfield
This is where I think the match will be won or lost. For Spain there will be the triumvate of Xavi, Busquets and Alonso. I have already given my thoughts on Busquets, but I will repeat them. He is the weak link in this Spanish team, his lack of ability is so clear compared to everyone else on the team it's startling. His job is to win the ball and lay it off to Xavi or Alonso to do the damage. Too often though he tries to play the balls himself and gifts the opposition possession back. Xavi is the master of passing, he rarely gives the ball away and is always available to the other players. He keeps this Spanish team ticking. Alonso is also a master passer, but is more likely than Xavi to play a long aerial pass when he thinks it's required.
For Germany it is again a middle 3. Man of the match from the Argentina game Bastian Schweinsteiger is ostensibly the holding player. Due to his career initially beginning as a winger though he is more than capable of bringing the ball forward and helping out in attack. Argentina couldn't cope with this and the goal he layed on for Arne Friedrich is a perfect example of his game. Alongside him will be Sami Khedira. He is more a Xavi style player who keeps the ball moving and keeps possession for this German team. He is excellent at this and some of the morning's papers have linked him with Chelsea, I think he and Essien would make a brilliant partnership in midfield. Making up the 3 is the link man between defence and attack, Mesut Ozil. Whilst he is unlikely to be back helping out in defence too much he does come back to receive the ball from Khedira and Schweinsteiger to set attacks rolling. He was a bit quiet against Argentina as Schweinsteiger took centre stage, but demolished England and Australia to show the effect he can have.
Whilst many would imagine Spain will dominate midfield, and midfield possession, I think Germany can change this. Busquets is not, in my opinion, good enough to be in this team and Germany should walk all over him. I would bring in Bilbao's Javi Martinez, but this wont happen. Unless Busquets has the game of his life I think Spain are in for a rude awakening!
Attack
For Spain their attack so far has been all about one man, David Villa. He has almost single-handedly dragged Spain through and has backed up my assertion that he is the best striker in the world right now. Torres has looked little short of hopeless so far. I would personally put Fernando Llorente in from the start, but Torres is a popular member of the squad and a Del Bosque favourite so he will start. The trio is made up by Andres Iniesta. A brilliant player, though he has been a bit subdued so far here for some reason. They will all need to be firing on all cylinders as Germany have been the most impressive team on show at this World Cup so far barring the Serbia game. On the bench will be Mata, Navas and Llorente all hoping to make an impact if brought on. I have always been impressed with Navas when watching him in La Liga. However, when he has played in this tournament he has looked like Aaron Lennon, without the Blazin Squad haircut. All pace and no end product. Mata is more likely to come inside and shoot, but has not impressed me at all when he's featured. As I've mentioned I think Llorente should start, but expect to see him introduced from the bench if Spain are struggling.
Germany also have a front 3. Thomas Muller is suspended for this match though, and that will be a loss. Whilst he only has 1 season of club football under his belt he has been very good so far. He will be likely to be replaced by either Toni Kroos or Marko Marin, both impressive young players themselves. Kroos is a more direct replacement as more of a central player, Marin is a small, nippy right-winger. Germany will not be as potent whoever plays, but both are capable of coming in and impressing. Whoever is picked will line-up with Lukas Podolski and Miroslav Klose, the 2 Poles! Seriously though, both are proven players at this level and have seemingly put disappointing domestic seasons behind them to impress so far. Klose is closing in on the real Ronaldo's World Cup scoring record, and will be looking to add to his total against a so far unimpressive Spanish rearguard. Podolski always seems greedy to me, but he scores and Germany win so he can't be that bad!
I think Germany's form in attack against Spain's form in defence could spell disaster for Spain. Unless Spain up their game Germany could destroy them I think. Germany will be looking to contain David Villa, and if they do that I can't see how Spain will score.
Betting
Because of Spain's incredible record of the past 4 years and being reigning Euro champions I think there is some cracking prices around. I would be tempted to back Germany with a -1 handicap at 11/2 with Sportingbet, if Germany get ahead I can see them running riot as they have previously. I would take Germany to do it in 90 minutes at a widely available 7/4 too. Spain have some hot-heads in their squad in Puyol, Pique and Busquets so if, like me, you fancy a Germany win then 1 of them to get sent off might hold appeal at 3/1 with Paddypower on any sending off in the match.
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