And so here we are. We've narrowed down the original 32 entrants to just 4, with Germany, Holland, Uruguay and Spain the last teams standing. I will have a look at the teams again, same format as before, and attempt to analyse where the game may well be won or lost. First up it's:
Holland v Uruguay, Kick-Off 730pm UK Time, Tuesday 6th July
Defence
Holland, whilst not necessarily containing any names you might recognise, are extremely strong in defence. This is borne out in the stat that they have only conceded 3 goals in their 5 games so far. This is a great credit to Bert Van Marwiijk, their coach, as he has been picking the same defence when fit almost since taking over and they are now a compact, well-drilled unit. However, the right-back Gregory Van Wiel, one of the young players who has most impressed, is suspended for this match. He is likely to be replaced by John Heitinga shuffling across from centre back I would have thought. Heitinga played most of his time for Atletico Madrid in Spain at right-back and was known to struggle when up against dynamic wingers. At centre back I would have thought that we would see Andre Ooijer and the return of Joris Mathijsen. Mathijsen played the majority of the qualifying vampaign and there should be no problems in him slotting in next to experienced campaigner Ooijer. At left-back will again be the captain Gio Van Bronckhorst. This back 4 is very experienced, but without the dynamism of Van Wiel they are lacking in pace and attacking intent.
For Uruguay it should be the same back 4 we saw line-up against Ghana in the Quarter-Final. We should see the hugely impressive Jorge Fucile at left-back, and he should again provide sound defensive cover along with attacking support. At right-back should be Maxi Pereira, who has been a reliable defender so far, and will need to be up against Arjen Robben. At centre back we should again see the pairing of the 2 Diego's, Lugano and Godin. These 2 are both used to playing with each other and make a solid and reliable starting point. Holland have 3 attackers who are capable of winning a game on their own and the Uruguyan defence will need to be alert at all times to deal with the threat they pose.
I can see Van Bommel beiong given a detail to follow Diego Forlan and cut off the supply to Uruguay's forwards. The suspension of Luis Suarez also robs Uruguay of their most potent goal threat so far. I see this as hugely weighting the battle in Holland's defences favour. Uruguay's defence could well be in for a torrid time. Robben has looked better and better every game, Sneijder is orchestrating play, and Van Persie has looked threatening too. They will need to have the game of their lives to cope and I think the dream might end here.
Midfield
Holland have the 2 defensive midfield pivot that many teams favour now. They have Mark Van Bommel and Nigel De Jong normally, but De Jong is suspended here. This could be a big miss as he has been a huge presence for them defensively so far. Demy De Zeuww of Ajax will probably fill in. He is 27 now and has been aound the Dutch League before getting his big move and fitting straight in. He wont be as dominating as De Jong, but with Suarez out he might not need to be. Sneijder again will be the link man, and he has carried this season'e exceptional form into the tournament so far. With Van Persie not quite firing on all cylinders, Sneijder is THE MAN in this team. If he plays well then I think it's bye, bye Uruguay!
For Uruguay it will be the 2 man pivot too. They play Eguren and Rios and they are both very disciplined. I would have thought they will be told that they are to stay back at all times to help out the defence with the threat Holland pose. Alvaro Pereira or Diego Perez will occupy the link man role and will probably be told to think of defence before bombing on and supporting the strikers. They could even bring in Nicolas Lodeiro's creativity in a flat 4 man midfield as Luis Suarez is suspended and it would provide more defensive support.
Again I see Holland dominating this match up. Sneijder has his eye on the player of the tournament gong and I would expect him to run this game and enhance his credentials even more.
Attack
Holland play Dirk Kuyt furthest up as a target man with Van Persie and Robben playing off him. This system works well as Dirk Kuyt is nothing if not hard-working. I personally think he-s dreadful at Liverpool, but a lot of that can be put down to his being played on the wing when he is patently not a winger in any shape or form! Robben was carrying an injury coming into the tournament. Van Maarwijk can again take great credit as his gamble on the glass man's recovery has paid off spectacularly so far. His insistence on throwing himself at the floor and rolling around certainly grates with me, but he is some player when in full-flight and puts defenders on the backfoot immediately. Van Persie hasn't been great so far, but he is still performing OK and is capable of unleashing rockets from his left-boot when the mood takes him.
Uruguay are usually heavily reliant on Diego Forlan and this is even more true as Luis Suarez is suspended for his heinous crime in the last match. I have seen people calling for huge bans and rule changes because of his handball, but I think he was adequately punished. The attacking team get a free shot from 12 yards, which any striker should score, and Uruguay lose a man too. I think anyone would have to agree they would do the same, so to brand him some sort of devil-man is a bit rich I think. As a wise friend of mine pointed out he will probably now be a national hero if they go on to triumph and will be able to ask any man for a lend of his wife for the night with no fear of repercussions! All the joking aside, he has been Uruguay's main goal threat and they will miss him sorely. The responsibility will fall on Forlan to somehow create and score and I think this will see them lose in this game.
In conclusion, I would say the loss of Suarez for Uruguay and Holland's stellar attack add up to misery for South America's last representatives. I can't see them scoring more than once and I think Holland will get 2 at least with the attacking force they have.
Betting
I would be inclined to back Holland for a clean sheet at 10/11 with Skybet. The 4/6 on offer for Holland to do it in 90 minutes looks massive to me with Skybet again. Holland beat Brazil and Uruguay edged past Ghana, how they can go with that price is beyond me and it should be snapped up! For a bit more value Betfred go 13/8 on the -1 handicap on Holland and I can see them covering that.
No comments:
Post a Comment