The title is a brief acknowledgement of England's acceptance of their place in football and admirably disciplined performance to beat Spain. It should be said that Spain have hardly been stellar in recent friendlies and also drew 2-2 with Costa Rica days later, but England still won in the absence of regular starters. I bring this up mostly to tip Germany for the Euro 2012 tournament in Polkraine over the summer. Odds of 4.0 are still out there and look good to me. Spain don't score enough for me to be comfortable backing them, and Holland look slightly behind Germany in terms of exuberance and flair.
Back to the domestic action again this weekend after the break for internationals and there's some interesting match ups. Both Norwich and Swansea host Arsenal and Man Utd respectively in what should be testing matches that they may well fancy getting something from. As I keep banging on about you can also follow me on the Twitter by looking for @TopTopTips, I can be found adding my thoughts on sport and extra tips that I don't have time to publish fully.
Music comes from Division Of Laura Lee with Endless Factories.
Norwich v Arsenal, Saturday 1245
First match of the Premier League weekend is the aforementioned clash between newly promoted Norwich and back in some sort of form Arsenal. Norwich have been a surprise to many this season by moving steadily up the table and not having been truly outclassed yet despite trips to both Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge. The choice to sign young, hungry players and those a bit older with something to prove is currently looking a masterstroke by Paul Lambert. Arsenal have been in much improved form of late, having started the season looking in dire straits. Much of this has coincided with Robin Van Persie returning to the side and also Arron Ramsey showing glimpses of his undoubted promise. My opinion of Arsenal and the way to beat them is to be organised. If you try and play around them, they'll probably enjoy picking you off. If you have a plan and stick to it, and if that plan also employs some physical stuff then all the better. Norwich seem to be very organised under Lambert with a system they stick to that works. They also have lower league forwards Grant Holt and Steve Morison who will not shy away from the rough stuff. I think Arsenal might well struggle to get to grips with that pair in particular. Back Norwich and the Draw Double Chance at 2.2 with William Hill.
Chelsea v Liverpool, Sunday 1600
The only match on Sunday is the Super Mega Match between Chelsea and Liverpool. During the days of Rafa Benitez and Jose Mourinho this fixture had added edge due to the managers being less than friendly and the sheer amount of meetings between the two sides in all competitions. However, this has worn off slightly in the intervening years and has become more of a meeting of two larger sides. Both have had somewhat mixed fortunes already this term. Under new manager Andre Villas Boas Chelsea have tried to shuffle the side and reinvigorate an ageing team, but there have been teething problems. The higher line in defence has been the most obvious as it seems ill suited to slower players like John Terry in particular. The form of both Ramires and Daniel Sturridge have been encouraging though. Liverpool are again seemingly lurching towards a re-assessment. 'King' Kenny Dalglish's crown seems to have slipped slightly already with the large sum spent over the summer not really reaping any sort of return. Both Andy Carroll and Jordan Henderson seem a long way from Top 4 players and Stewart Downing has also not lived up to his price tag. The only bright light has been Luis Suarez and he is now mired in racism allegations. This all leads to me thinking it has to be Chelsea. Back Chelsea t 1.83 with Totesport.
Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao, Sunday 1700
A team I have had my eye on of late are Bilbao under Marcelo Bielsa. The Argentinian boss is attempting to change more than a decade or two of 'English' style football as they refer to it in Bilbao. His ideas took a while to bed in as is expected, but recently they seem to be getting some reward. The move to a shorted passing, quicker moving game and the players are beginning to look like they're enjoying it. Truth be told with players like Javi Martinez, Iker Muniain and Fernando Llorente already at the club they had no shortage of talent. Llorente in particular should probably be in the Spain side now as both Torres and Villa are hopelessly out of form. The 2-2 draw against Barcelona where they almost won was probably the time when people begun to take notice of the change in fortunes. Sevilla have also been quietly impressive, but have been off colour the last couple of matches. This could probably be traced to the loss of form of Alvaro Negredo, their main striking threat and another man with ambitions of starting for Spain. He had had a truly amazing goals to game ratio at the end of last season and the start of this, but that seems to be at an end now. I would back a Bilbao team moving slightly more than Sevilla at 3.0 Draw No Bet with Stan James.
Catania v Chievo, Sunday 1400
This match in Serie A sees two sides meeting who would probably be happy to finish the season in mid-table mediocrity. Catania have only recently returned to the top level in Italy and are looking to establish themselves as a regular in Serie A under manager Vincenzo Montella. The ex Roma and Italy striker has made a promising start to his managerial career at the Sicilian club and has already been talked about as a future manager of one of the big boys or the national team. So far the trips to the south for the opposition haven't been successful with Catania unbeaten at home with 3 wins and 2 draws from 5 matches. Chievo have been a modern success story in Italian football. They are a very small club in the grand scheme of things and have hung around Serie A for a number of years now, often off the back of home form. This season though they are struggling as they did last season. They have yet to pick up a win on their travels and I don't see them getting anythign from this one either. Back Catania at 1.97 with Betfair.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen, Saturday 1430
As regular readers will know, Gladbach have been something of a favourite of mine so far this season. The good thing about the Bundesliga is that whilst you know Bayern Munich will be involved in the title picture, nearly everything else is up for grabs. Any team can move from predicted strugglers to European qualifiers with a few well placed tactics/players. This seasons success story seems to be likely to be Gladbach. They don't have the flair of last seasons shock sides Dortmund or even Mainz, but they are well organised and possess a truly fantastic prospect in Marco Reus. The diminutive forward looks another off the production line in Germany and just in time for Euro 2012. Werder have also been rejuvenated this season after a disappointing term last season. After years of relentless attacking they tried a more structured approach, but it failed to yield the desired results and they have returned to attacking. With others like Dortmund slow starting they have risen to joint 2nd with both Dortmund and Gladbach. The fact Gladbach have been unbeaten at home sees me leaning their way. Back Gladbach at 2.5 with a number of firms.
Kayserispor v Orduspor, Saturday 1400
First tip from the Super Lig this week has the seasons surprise story Orduspor travelling to Kayserispor. In a league where terrible defending is all over, Orduspor have stood out with their organised approach. This could well be to compensate for their rather less than brilliant forwards, but it is working. They sit in sixth position unbeaten at home and with only one defeat so far. They have also only conceded six, but also only scored ten in ten games. Kayserispor are struggling a bit so far with only three wins from ten matches and only one of those at home. They have conceded fifteen in ten leaving their problems at the back. I think Orduspor's lack of goals is going to mean they draw an awful lot of matches and I think especially away from home. Back the Draw at 3.45 on Betfair.
Sivasspor v Genclerbirligi, Sunday 1100
One of the more entertaining sides in the Super Lig is Sivasspor. They are a often a complete mess off the field and quite often the same can be said of them on it. Saying that, they do seem to be cutting out the completely ridiculous defeats and settling on a more regular line up, which is no doubt contributing. They have conceded twelve in ten, but that does include a one off 4-0 home defeat very early on. If anything they've been quite tight other than that, and in particular at home. They have won three from five at home with one draw and one defeat, they have scored six and conceded four in those encounters to back up their improved organisation. Genclerbirligi have returned to the top level this season and have settled in mid table at present with their home form accounting for most of their points. They have failed to win on their travels having only drawn one and lost four whilst conceding twelve and only scoring three. If there is a match where Sivasspor's new approach should work it is against this side. Back Sivasspor at 2.2 with Unibet.
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