Well, all good things must come to an end. And, after a run of 5 weeks and considerable profit from each of them, I ended up down last weekend. This is absolutely inevitable, as it's important to emphasise that only over time will you accrue a large amount of money from gambling. Saying that, those of you that also follow me on Twitter @TopTopTips will have gained back some of those losses from my midweek selections.
Those midweek tips were mostly on the Champions League, with Tuesday proving less successful than Wednesday. But, as ever, we should learn something from the losing bets hopefully. I have learnt it is not necessarily a wise idea to back Arsenal in the absence of Van Persie! Having seen new signing Park come in for the Marseille match it is clear to see he is willing, but miles away from a top class forward. As a few have pointed out this week, it will surely soon be time to give Theo Walcott a run up front and see how he performs. At the moment it is even less of a risk in the absence of any quality behind RVP.
Music this week comes from the laid back Ben Nichols with The Last Pale Light in the West.
Newcastle v Everton, Saturday 1245
The first match of the weekend sees the still unbeaten Newcastle hosting slow starting Everton. The bookies still seem to be of the general opinion that Newcastle are performing well above their abilities. I would agree that looking at the squad as a whole then they are probably correct, but the key at the moment is the first choice eleven. These players are probably the equal of any team outside of the Big 4 or 5 and whilst they stay fit I don't see them getting soundly beaten at all. The spine of the team with Krul, Coloccini, Cabaye and the in-form Ba is very good and they should all be fit to start this match. As mentioned Everton have not started well, as usual. They have lacked a goalscorer for years now and it looks like that will haunt them this season again. Some of the players are also looking a bit like they need a change of something and are all too comfortable. Back Newcastle at 2.37 with William Hill.
Wolves v Wigan, Sunday 1330
A huge match at the foot of the table already in this game. Wolves started the season very impressively and have fallen a huge amount since then and are desperate for a win. Mick McCarthy has relied on bringing in players who have excelled in the divisions below and foreign players from some of Europe's more minor leagues. This is largely to do with his budget, but will not lead to many success stories and has contributed to their league position. Wigan have flirted with relegation for years now, and are thankfully looking like they'll drop this season. Roberto Martinez seems a nice bloke, and definitely has his sides trying to pass the ball around, but it isn't working. The side has no spark with the absence of Charles N'Zogbia and not enough goals from their forwards this season. I wont mourn their departure and I think Wolves must win this to turn a faltering campaign around. Back Wolves to Win To Nil at 3.3 with Paddy Power.
Real Mallorca v Sevilla, Saturday 1700
The first match from La Liga this week sees Mallorca hosting Sevilla. Spain is a league with a lot of clubs who have enormous debts due to a complete lack of punishment from the FA for accruing them. One of these clubs is Mallorca. They have spent almost nothing every summer for a few seasons now and been forced to sell off whatever talent they had from the previous season to balance the books. With this in mind it is a minor miracle they keep staying up. This season is beginning to look like it may be a step to far with so many good players having left. They are struggling and with no in-form forwards they are unlikely to get results any time soon. Sevilla have been up and down so far this season. They performed magnificently in drawing with Barcelona at Camp Nou two weeks ago, and then failed to kill off newly promoted Granada on Monday and succumbed to a late 2-1 loss. I think they may well see that result as a push to do better rather than dwell on it. Back Sevilla Draw No Bet at 1.8 on Betfair.
Novara v Roma, Saturday 1945
The Saturday night kick off in Serie A sees Roma travelling to Novara. Roma undertook a huge shift in footballing philosophy in the Summer when appointing Luis Garcia as manager. He had previously been in charge of Barcelona's B team and it would be fair to assume the owners thought some of Pep's magic had rubbed off. He has brought in a number of good players to try and change the style of play and so far it has been a bit of a bedding in period. There have been signs it is working, but also some losses whilst the players adjust to the system and each other. Novara have found themselves near the foot of the table for most of the season after promotion. They had a memorable victory over Inter, but apart from that have found victories hard to come by. They have been entertaining though with 29 goals in their 9 matches so far. With Roma also employing a broadly attacking formation and presumably viewing this as winnable it should be an entertaining match up. Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 with William Hill.
Genoa v Inter, Sunday 1130
The early kick off on Sunday has Inter travelling to Genoa and looking for points under new manager Claudio Ranieri. After a disastrous start under Gianpero Gasperini, Inter took drastic measures and sacked their new manager after merely 5 league matches. Admittedly, he was somehow failing to even get his better players to perform and was trying to shoehorn them into a system that did not suit them. Since Ranieri's appointment they have looked more solid, mainly down to restoring a system that has the players in positions familiar to them. They have got decent results in the Champions League in particular, but are still dangerously near the foot of the table. Genoa are having a good start to the season and are sitting in a comfortable mid-table position. They have played four home matches and so far are unbeaten with two wins and two draws. I feel Ranieri will set his side up to try and not lose, and that should give Genoa a fair chance of a good result. Back Genoa Draw No Bet at 1.96 on Betfair.
Orduspor v Gaziantepspor, Saturday 1100
The early start in Turkey this week sees newly promoted Orduspor hosting Gaziantepspor. Even though they have only just joined the Super Lig , they are doing very well. They currently sit in 6th in the table behind all the Big 4 and Istanbul BB, who are also having a great start to the season. They are also currently unbeaten at home with four matches played and two wins and two draws. Goals have been hard to come by with only four in four at home, but it is getting the job done. Gaziantepspor were very strong at home last season and I earned a fair bit of money backing them accordingly. However comma they have not started well at all so far this season. They have one win at home and one away so far from nine matches. It looks like there is only one bet here and at very good prices considering the teams respective form so far. Back Orduspor at 2.3 with Blue Square.
Istanbul BB v Bursaspor, Sunday 1100
The early kick off on Sunday is also another appealing match betting wise. As mentioned above, Istanbul BB have started the season in great form and have risen to 3rd in the Super Lig at this stage. Their home form has been key to this so far two wins and two draws leaving them unbeaten so far. They have also scored eight goals in the process and only conceded three. Bursaspor have become known outside of Turkey in the past couple of years due to major investment and then a Super Lig win and the Champions League football that accompanies it. They ended up in third last season having fallen a fair way behind Fenerbahce and Trabzonspor in the final matches. This season they have also not started out too brilliantly and lag behind the early pace-setters. They sit in 9th in the table and their away form has so far been an issue. They have played four and only won one whilst drawing one and losing two. The respective forms of the teams may not last the entire season, but right now Istanbul are the much better side. Back Istanbul at 2.5 with Bet365.
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