Well, unfortunately Dave did not win at the NOPA's, but a great night was had meeting everyone. Hopefully the blog will continue to grow and it was great to be in the company of some major league writers/bloggers, Jonathan Wilson (swoon).
There hasn't been a great deal of football on this week really. We saw Man City probably slightly unfortunately lose their unbeaten record having been denied a penalty then losing Gael Clichy to a red card. Fair play to Chelsea though, they seem to have moved on from their early season misery. The African CON in January may again be a time to get against them though as Didier Drogba has become all-important part of the side again. Fernando Torres looks to me like he's on a permanent slide now he clearly doesn't trust his legs/hamstrings, they could struggle again yet.
This morning's Champions League draw has thrown Italian teams at the remaining English sides with Arsenal and Chelsea drawing AC Milan and Napoli respectively. Both should be interesting ties with Napoli's attacking pace against Chelsea's less than speedy backline and Arsenal and AC seem reasonably matched to me too. I will try and get midweek blogs up when it comes to the European competitions re-starting as there will no doubt be some good opportunities.
Music comes from Iron Chic with Black Friday.
Everton v Norwich City, Saturday 1500
Having gained some profit backing Norwich at home to Newcastle last weekend, I again think they represent value this week. Norwich have rarely looked overawed this season, and only Man City seem to have been able to run clean over them. The strike force of Steve Morison and Grant Holt may well look distinctly lower league on paper, but they have shown that endeavour and brute force can reap rewards whatever the stage. They gave Newcastle's makeshift backline a torrid time last week and will fancy themselves to continue in that vain again.
Everton have not quite turned round their appalling start quite yet. The problem is an age old one for them too, they have no recognised striker who can get 15-20 goals a season. This leaves them unable to get ahead of teams and into a comfortable position. The release of Yakubu is beginning to look a bit of a strange decision, especially since Moyes seems not to think much of Louis Saha and his summer signings have yet to make an impact. All in all, it's becoming a bit stale at Goodison and might be best for all involved if there is a shake-up soon.
Back Norwich and Draw Double Chance at 2.3 with William Hill.
Man City v Arsenal, Sunday 1610
The biggest match this weekend is saved until Sunday afternoon with Arsenal travelling to the fortress of Eastland's. Man City's unbeaten league run was ended on Monday night by Chelsea, but they performed well enough in places and will feel had the penalty decision gone their way the result might have been different. It will be a test of Mancini's management to respond to the defeat positively, and a win against a team of Arsenal's calibre would be a statement that the Chelsea game was a blip, not the start of a slump. They will no doubt look to David Silva as usual to be the creative fulcrum of the side, and he will probably be allowed time by Arsenal's midfield.
Arsenal have won seven of the last eight in the league, but against opponents barring Chelsea that were nowhere near the level of this City side. They have also been heavily reliant on Robin Van Persie to provide not only goals, but leadership too as he is now one of the more experienced members of the side. Fortunately he seems to be thriving upon the added responsibility and has probably been the best striker in football for around 12 months now. They are now missing all their full backs though, and you would imagine Mancini will devise some way to attack that weakness.
Back Man City at 1.75 with Victor Chandler.
Sevilla v Real Madrid, Saturday 2100
The late match in La Liga sees Jose Mourinho taking his Real Madrid side to Seville looking to get back on track after losing El Clasico. As has been pointed out by the ever excellent Tim Stannard amongst others some of Real's biggest stars seem unable to perform at their best against Barca. Cristiano Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos particularly affected. They both seem to be almost trying too hard to show they can be better than Barca's stars and their performances become erratic. The wonderful Mesut Ozil was completely overwhelmed by the midfield tiki taka of Barca and was ineffectual too. I can see the hangover still being there a little bit and have no faith in Madrid at around 1.45.
Sevilla have been near the top of La Liga regularly now for most of the last decade. They have a fantastic scouting network and youth system which has recently produced the likes of Sergio Ramos, Dani Alves and Jesus Navas. This has enabled them to play fast paced football and with an attacking style. This season though, they have been almost as reliant on an extremely tight backline. They have only conceded eleven goals in total and will hope to keep that statistic going in this home match.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.5 at Ladbrokes.
Osasuna v Villarreal, Sunday 1700
Secong tip from Spain has under-performing Villarreal travelling to Osasuna. Osasuna are a stable mid-table sort of team in Spain, similar to a Stoke in many ways. They rely heavily on a tough physical approach and excellent home form to try and push for European football on occasion. This season has been no different on that front. They sit seventh in the table and are still unbeaten at home in seven matches. They have also only conceded four goals in those games whilst scoring eleven to make them formidable at home.
Villarreal I have discussed previously. They have done exceptionally well to rise to the level they now are at, but this season looks likely to be a long struggle. They have very little creativity unlike in previous seasons having lost the likes of Riqelme and Cana. They are also missing Guiseppe Rossi all season and he was their most reliable goal threat by a long way. Nilmar has also spent a lot of the last twelve months out and with both of those two missing it is no wonder they are struggling to win games.
Back Osasuna at 2.2 with Coral.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Mainz 05, Sunday 1630
The last match in the Bundesliga is my only German tip this week. It's blog favourites Gladbach hosting Mainz. I am hoping that after Gladbach failed to beat bottom side Augsburg last weekend they will be keen to make a statement that their season is not already petering out. They seemed sluggish in that match so the weeks rest they have had should also aid their chances. Marco Reus's form as been key to their best showings and he should hopefully be fully fit this weekend to try and help his side go into xmas off the back of a win.
Mainz showed last season that they have some talented young players. They ended up falling away somewhat, but their youth and hard-pressing game plan have again caused teams problems this season. They beat Bayern Munich recently in a performance that owed a lot to their constant harrying and without Schweinsteiger, Bayern didn't have anyone to win in the midfield. They have been pretty tight at the back, but have drawn most of their away matches. Their record reads won one, drawn five and lost one. I would imagine they'll come for a draw and it will be up to Gladbach to break them down.
Back Monchengladbach at 1.9 with Victor Chandler.
Catania v Palermo, Sunday 1400
In Serie A we see Palermo taking their terrible away form to Catania. Catania have been very impressive under managerial newcomer Vincenzo Montella. Their style of football might not exactly be Barcelona-esque, but they are getting good results and are far from dull. Saying that though, they really could do with more goals going in. In fourteen matches they have only scored fifteen goals, and that could hurt them in terms of rising any higher than the mid-table position they currently occupy.
Palermo have been one of the strangest stories in Europa in terms of their away form. They have somehow managed to still not score at all in seven away matches whilst conceding nine goals in the same time. They have picked up two 0-0 draws, but they somehow cannot get a goal. At home they have scored sixteen in seven and won six too, so clearly their is performances in the players. You really can't look beyond getting against them away though, as the stats don't lie.
Back Catania at 2.25 with Coral.
Eskisehirspor v Kayserispor, Saturday 1400
The first tip from the Super Lig is high flying Eskisehirspor hosting Kayserispor. Eskisehirspor had excellent home form last season which saw them challenging for European qualification before they ran out of steam a bit and fell away to upper mid-table. That home form has again seen them rise to the heady heights of fourth, but once again goalscoring may well be prohibitive to a concerted push. They have won four, drawn one and lost two at home, both scoring and conceding seven in the process. They were only narrowly beaten in both the matches they lost and they were back in October.
Kayseispor have been a bit hit and miss, also very similar to last season. They sit in eight position and most of that is down to their poor away record of losing four and winning three from seven. They have only scored six in those matches and conceded eight so they are not being thrashed at all, but a team like Eskisehir should be able to deny them the opportunities whilst hopefully nicking a goal.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.1 with SportingBet.
Manisaspor v Genclerbirligi, Sunday 1100
The second tip from Turkey is another early surprise package in Manisaspor hosting Genclerbirligi. Manis have not really showed anything in previous seasons to suggest that they would surge up the table this season, but that is what they have done. They sit in fifth and it is mainly due to them being extremely tough to beat and relatively tight at the back for a Super Lig side. They have only lost three times in fifteen matches as well as only conceding fourteen. That they have also only scored sixteen is testament to how they are able to produce results in tight matches.
Genclerbirligi have been a lot more exciting team, but their away form is their undoing. They have only been beaten once at home, but have lost four from seven, with only one win, away from home. They have also conceded fourteen in those seven away games as well as only scoring six. This should give Manis enough encouragement to think they can grab a goal and keep Gencler out.
Back Manisaspor at 2.1 with BlueSquare.
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