Well, that was a tidy little weekend wasn't it? With five out of seven tips rolling in and all at over even money, we should all have been celebrating. Sadly I went back in with a little of my earnings to back Bilbao at home to Granada at what I thought was a still reasonable 1.5. The sods lost and therefore so did I. I say this as hopefully you can all learn from my error, if you've made your picks and made your money, then that should be enough. Wait for the next time you've had a proper look as I do before this column and don't start madly punting.
It has been something of a quiet midweek really. I rarely, if ever, get involved in the Europa League as it is very hard to gauge how seriously teams are taking it as well as weighing up the merits of third in Israel against second in Hungary. The interest for most should have been in the Carling Cup quarter finals. We got a couple of upsets too. Tuesday saw Arsenal's pretty young side hold their own before Sergio Aguero's class stood out to win it late for Man City. The key from this match was again seeing how the absence of Van Persie makes Arsenal a much harder team to back as his replacements are not exactly prolific. We saw Liverpool heap more misery on Villas Boas sorry Chelsea side by beating them 0-2 and also missing a penalty. Chelsea were again pretty dreadful and in particular Torres was very lacklustre. Blackburn were beaten away at Cardiff and again looked very poor. On Wednesday we saw the big upset as Crystal Palace beat Man Utd at Old Trafford. Darren Ambrose opened the scoring from around 30 yards with a rocket before Utd equalised and Palace snatched a win in extra time. Another thing to learn from this match is that United have very little coming through and the more injuries they get the more they will be likely to fall away from the top of the table.
Music this week comes from Daggermouth with Too Late, No Friends.
Newcastle v Chelsea, Saturday 1245
First match of the weekend sees a struggling Chelsea side travelling to this season's surprise package Newcastle. Newcastle's unbeaten record fell to Manchester City recently, but they should still not be underestimated. Whilst Alan Pardew was roundly mocked upon his appointment, it can not be denied that he has turned the side's fortunes round and made them much harder to beat. This is the key for me. They are set up from defence and have a solid centre of midfield before some pace on the flanks and in Demba Ba a striker in great form. When watching him I can't exactly pick what it is about him that makes him a success, but he is quick and gets in great positions. Chelsea are rocking right now and could probably do without visiting a Newcastle team who will still be full of confidence at the moment. It has been said in various places that Chelsea are getting very old in key areas now, as well as the fact certain key players seem to have far too much influence. All in all it looks to be heading to a showdown to me with Roman either backing the manager and making more investment in younger players or bringing Hiddink back to try and get a little bit more out of the older heads. Anyway I can't back them in present form. Back Newcastle Draw No Bet at 2.75 with Stan James.
Tottenham v Bolton, Saturday 1500
My current favourite Premier League team is worryingly Spurs. As I mentioned last week it has long been an unwritten rule in gambling to never trust Spurs, but I think that time is over for now. Looking at the Premier League apart from Man City the most reliable side are Spurs. With nine wins and a draw from their last ten matches they are in great form and are looking good whilst doing it. They did as good as bow out of the Europa League this week, but it should have little consequence as Redknapp has made it plain his lack of care for the competition. Plenty of the side that have been on this great run were rested and will be looking forward to playing a struggling Bolton side. On to Bolton and their manager Owen Coyle. Like many others I thought Coyle started very well at Bolton and looked a genuine prospect to get them playing good football and points. Since around three quarters of the way through last season though they have not been up to scratch. The fact that Steve Kean is around as well as Wigan's continued travails means that their poor form has mostly gone unnoticed. However comma they are a million miles away from being good enough to beat this Tottenham side for me. Back Spurs/Spurs in the HT/FT at 1.95 again at Stan James.
Valencia v Espanyol, Saturday 2100
Another team that seems to be being slightly underestimated by punters is Valencia. At present they look a much more reliable bet than Barcelona in La Liga and yet are often a lot longer odds. I'm not suggesting they're a better side, but they are doing it more consistently at present. They may have sold a lot of their better players over the last few years, but there is still some fine players left. My personal favourite is the striker Roberto Soldado. He has been the most reliable Spanish goalscorer around for almost a calendar year now, but seems to still be well down the national pecking order behind, amongst others, Villa and Torres. He seems content to carry on banging them in for the Galician's though, and all the better for backers. Espanyol were a tip by many to struggle for their La Liga status this year after a poor season last time and little investment in the playing staff over the summer. They presently sit in ninth after a good start, although they are now four matches without a win and have only scored two goals in those four matches too. All in all, it is not a good time to play a fully rested Valencia side in the intimidating Mestalla. Back Valencia -1.0 at 1.85 with Victor Chandler.
Osasuna v Betis, Sunday 1700
Second tip from La Liga is Osasuna hosting promoted Betis. One constant rule in La Liga is that it will not be an easy game for anyone travelling to Osasuna. They have always been a physical side and that has not changed this season. The effort they put in is fantastic, and they're not averse to getting a bit dirty when there is a call for it. They are so far unbeaten at home from six matches with three wins and three draws and they also notched up a first away win of the season last weekend at Espanyol to rise to seventh in the table. Their problem has always been goals, but their tightness at the back, only conceding three in six at home, allows them to get wins. Betis did well initially before embarking in a nine game winless streak that is still going. I don't watch enough of them to fully identify what the major problems are, but needless to say that's a dreadful run that will soon have them in danger if not arrested. They hadn't even scored in five matches before surrendering 2-3 in their last match. In a run like this I can only see one result. Back Osasuna at 21.5 with Victor Chandler.
Parma v Palermo, Sunday 1430
The only tip from Italy this week sees Palermo travelling to Parma. Parma have been the major success story in Serie A in the last fifteen years really. They are a small club in comparison to most, but thanks to a brilliant scouting network and youth system have included players like Crespo, Cannavaro and Buffon amongst many others. Unfortunately those golden days now seem over and they will be happy with a season avoiding a relegation scrap. Their current best player is the diminutive playmaker Sebastian Giavinco formerly of Juventus. He has drifted around many sides including the national team with coaches seemingly worried about his lack of height and strength, but he is thriving given responsibility at Parma. They have won their last two home matches and he has been key in both. Palermo are another slightly more recent success story. They were promoted not too many years ago and have thrived ever since. They also have a good scouting network in South America and Eastern Europe and have unearthed players like the recently departed Javier Pastore. They have built their success on good home form in Sicily and this season has been no different. They have six wins from six at home. Their away record is vastly different. They have drawn one and lost five from six without scoring in the whole time. Back Parma at 2.15 with Ladbrokes.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund, Saturday 1430
The derby of the Borussia's! Both are sides I very much like with my tip of backing Dortmund outright again looking shrewd with them recovering their spot at the top of the Bundesliga last weekend. Gladbach have also been very good to me betting wise this season with their march up the table. Just recently Gladbach have looked phenomenal with Marco Reus looking spectacular at times and adding goals to their game. A 5-0 win against Werder Bremen followed by a 0-3 win in their derby away to Koln last week is fantastic. They are currently the form team in the Bundesliga and are well worth their second position. Dortmund, as mentioned, have recovered from a slow start to head the table thanks to a run of eight games without defeat including an important away win against Bayern Munich. They are coming into form just as Bayern are struggling in the absence of injured Bastian Shweinsteiger and will look to stretch their advantage. They would not have wanted this trip now though. They have a record of won three, drawn two and lost two away from home and Gladbach are still unbeaten at home whilst scoring sixteen and only conceding five. Back Gladbach Draw No Bet at 2.75 with Stan James.
Genclerbirligi v Galatasaray, Saturday 1400
First tip from the Super Lig sees giants Gala travelling to Gencler. Gala would have fancied their chances of making a push for the title this season after the match fixing scandal that engulfed Fenerbahce over the summer months. They currently sit second behind Fener and are three points behind. They have won four, drawn one and lost one at home as well as winning two, drawing three and only losing one away from home. They have been a bit leaky at the back though, and this has cost them points. Strangely though, they have been more solidly set up away from home, which has contributed to the three draws as they have sacrificed attacking intent for defensive solidity. Gencler have so far been unbeaten at home and will enter this match confident of taking something. They have played six at home winning four and drawing two whilst scoring a brilliant eleven and only conceding four. I would imagine this will only encourage Gala to set up defensively again, but barring Fenerbahce noone looks better placed to breach their rearguard. Back Genclerbirligi Draw No Bet at a massive 2.5 with Stan James.
Antalyaspor v Karabukspor, Sunday 1100
This is more of a gut feeling than anything on this bet so be aware! Recent Sunday morning matches seem to be throwing up some classics in the Super Lig and I'm going to take a punt on this being another. The league is not renowned for loads of goals flying in, although defences sometimes look like the definition of 'schoolboy', and the odds often reflect this. Both these sides are in the relegation fight and will probably stay there for the majority of the season so I am banking on both viewing this as winnable and going for it. Antalyaspor have played six at home and have won two, drawn three and only lost the one whilst scoring seven and conceding six. Karabukspor have played six away without winning, only drawing once and losing five. They have also scored four in that time and conceded ten. It makes the home team look like they should do it, but I think they'll concede at least one and hopefully that will encourage Karabuk. Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.75 with William Hill.
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