I would like to start by saying we all have bad weeks. And I had a truly horrendous one last weekend, even though I was actually very happy with all my picks. Unfortunately such is the nature of gambling, you always run the risk of losing. Fortunately we have been well up a number of weeks this season so overall we are still in healthy profit, and that's the main thing at the end of the day.
It has again been a pretty quiet midweek, with just the odd Domestic Cup match around Europe to keep us occupied. Obviously the biggest of those was the Real Madrid v Barcelona Copa Del Rey Quarter Final in Spain on Wednesday night. As seems to be the norm in these match-ups now, the game was marred by all manner of cheating, theatrics and downright idiocy. Pepe in particular again showed his slightly unhinged side in stamping on Lionel Messi's hand in some sort of attempt to curb his skills. All told it failed as a tactic as Barcelona ran out 2-1 winners and will now be heavy favourites to progress with the Second Leg at Camp Nou this week.
I would very much like to recommend Mike Hale and Wicked People this week, a chilled out slice of folk.
Stoke City v West Brom, Saturday 1500
First up this week is Tony Pulis's Stoke side hosting Woy Hodgson's WBA. Both sides have been in decent form of late, but Stoke are coming off the back of an excellent point at Anfield. It could be suggested that Liverpool were poor and have been most of the season at home, and they may ring true, but Stoke should still be given credit for making them look very ordinary. If you take away the results after their Europa League exploits this season Stoke would again be on for a challenge for an automatic place back in Europa next year. They may not quite yet have the squad to cope with campaigning on two fronts, but with European action yet to resume they should be plenty refreshed for this match.
Since joining WBA after his awful spell at Liverpool, Woy has made Stoke similar to his old Fulham side in that they are organised, tough to beat and pose a considerable threat in attack. This alone should guarantee safety in the Premier League these days with the almost certain chance that at least two sides every year will be truly hopeless, and that Wigan will nearly always be one of them. The partnership up front of Peter Odemwingie and Shane Long has looked very good at times with Long providing the hard yards and Odemwingie the pace and flair. Whether Odemwingie will enjoy the attentions of Stoke's incredibly physical backline is something I rather doubt though and I see WBA struggling this weekend.
Back Stoke City at 1.95 with BetVictor.
Manchester City v Tottenham, Sunday 1330
In the first of two huge clashes on Sunday Tottenham travel to Man City looking to creep back into title contention. The only problem is that so far City have won every single match at Eastland's this season and have not lost there in over a calendar year. For all the criticism levelled at Mancini, and I would agree he may not be the man to bring the Champions League to Eastland's eventually, he is definitely good enough to win them the league title. This match will be another stern test for him, particularly in light of his absentees. There is a spine in this City side that when fit and performing makes them miles better than the rest of the league, unfortunately for City they will be missing two vital parts of it this weekend in Vincent Kompany and Yaya Toure. This will be keenest felt at centre back where Kompany's assured play and presence are a huge miss. The return of David Silva in midweek though again provides them with the flair and cutting edge they sorely missed when he was briefly injured.
Spurs had the chance last weekend to really apply some pressure to the two Manchester sides and failed to do so in what, on paper, was an easy three points. They somehow conspired to draw 1-1 at home to a poor Wolves side and I have seen the odd criticism of Redknapp's refusal to rotate being part of this. I can understand this to an extent as there are players he has brought in like Pienaar and Kranjcar who he refuses to sell, yet when he could have given them a run and expected to still beat Wolves, he did not take the opportunity. I am not suggesting they are better than the likes of Lennon and Bale, but if those two looked leggy then it may have proved more beneficial to give the reserves a run. Anyway, I would expect Spurs to get back on track soon, but not here.
Back Manchester City at 1.91 with Ladbrokes.
Arsenal v Manchester United, Sunday 1600
The second part of the Super Huge Sunday is Man Utd travelling to the Emirates hoping to keep pace with their neighbours. I think we all remember the reverse of this fixture a few months back where somewhat amazingly United ran out 8-2 winners. I certainly don't see a repeat quite at that level, but we may well see another entertaining fixture. Arsenal's myriad of flaws were again exposed last weekend in a 3-2 loss to Swansea in Wales. The most shocking aspect to may was the dominance of possession that Swansea enjoyed. However comma those that regularly watch Wenger's side surely can't have been completely taken aback. The days of tippy tappy stuff seem to be over in favour of a more industrial style at times and it looks like it has confused may of the players. There seems a complete lack of cohesion of purpose about them at times that has rarely been seen during Wenger's reign. The current lack of full-backs will surely also be targeted by Ferguson.
United enjoyed one of their traditional walkovers last week when hosting Bolton. They barely had to break sweat and should be full of beans for this clash. Whilst I have extolled many times this season on how over-rated I thought they were at the beginning of the season they have, to their credit, stayed in touch with City so far. I still think the Goalkeeper, Defence and Central Midfield all need new personnel, it says a lot about the current quality of English football that they are still comfortably second best in the Premier League. This is an ideal match to gain a win and a boost to the confidence of the likes of Nani and Rooney who have looked out of sorts of late.
Back Manchester United at 2.62 with Paddy Power.
Udinese v Catania, Sunday 1400
One of the matches I was very confident with last weekend but got stung on was Udinese throwing away an early lead away at Genoa. Whilst this was a shock of sorts, it was not completely out of the blue and certainly would not have happened had Udinese been the hosts. They still have not lost at home this season, with the only blemish on their record a 0-0 draw with Juventus before Xmas. They have scored eighteen and only conceded three in their nine home games so far and will be confident of continuing that run against Catania. Antonio Di Natale has again had a full weeks rest, very important with his knees giving him constant abuse now, and will be ready to again fire his club ahead.
Catania are currently mid-table and will be relatively pleased with that. Their main aim would have been to avoid a relegation scrap and with them sitting seven points clear of the relegation places they should comfortably achieve that. They have struggled for goals all season and also sadly conceded by the bucketload away from home costing them any hopes of moving much higher up Serie A. In nine away matches they have only won one, whilst drawing five and losing three. They have scored eleven, but sadly been undone by conceding a huge nineteen. This match only looks likely to go one way.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.2 with Bet365.
Inter Milan v Lazio, Sunday 1945
Another match from Italy as I am currently avoiding Spain. The Liga Primera has got very unpredictable since Xmas so I'll leave alone until some semblance of order returns. In terms of reliability, Inter are the team to be behind in Europe. They have made a brilliant turnaround since Ranieri stepped in as manager and brought in a system the players could fit into and understand. He could even afford to leave Wesley Sneijder on the bench in the Milan derby last weekend and gain a 1-0 win. They now only lie six points of top spot in Serie A and talk of a late title push is probably not beyond the realms of possibility. They have now won their last ten matches in the league and all bar one of those at home was won by more than one goal.
Lazio are in something of a funk at present. Pre-season there was talk of the possibility of getting around the title picture and to be fair to them they've stayed around that aim. However comma one win in the last five tells the story of a side that are struggling to kill teams off. Last weekend did see a home victory over ten man Atalanta, but they again looked a tad disjointed. Basically, I think they are meeting the divisions form team at the wrong time for them and Inter will see it as a chance to overtake another side near the peak of the table.
Back Inter -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.23 with BetVictor.
Istanbul BB v Manisaspor, Saturday 1100
Two sides that started well, but have faded somewhat meet in Istanbul on Saturday morning. Istanbul BB relied on a fantastic early home record to reach as high as fourth in the table in October before falling as far as thirteenth now mainly due to a lack of goals producing too many draws at home. Their away form has always been a problem and this does not seem to have changed this year, which makes their issues at home stand out all the more. They have only lost one match at home, but with five draws from nine matches it is easy to see that is the problem.
Manisaspor have fallen down from third to twelfth in almost the same timeframe. This has been almost entirely down to a strikeforce that has only mustered eighteen goals in twenty Super Lig matches, split evenly between home and away games. In nine away matches they have drawn five of them and this has been due to often scoring, but being unable to stop the other side also netting. I think they will again struggle for a win here.
Back the Draw at 3.25 with Coral.
Bursaspor v Sivasspor, Saturday 1400
This match sees one of the seasons surprise packages in Sivasspor away at an increasingly despondent looking Bursa side. Only three seasons ago Bursa had spent a good amount of money in trying to establish themselves as a new power in the Super Lig and back to back titles proved they had achieved that aim. However comma last season they fell short of a proper challenge with Trabzon and Fener battling it out and Fener triumphing in the end. This seems to have caused a malaise to set in with the Crocodile's and they have looked anything but champions material so far. They look short of creativity, goals and just general motivation. They sit in eleventh position and twenty two goals in twenty matches is probably the main reason for this.
Sivass have been an entertaining choice for the neutral for a couple of years now. Their money worries are still present and last season they were that bad that they often lost players midweek in dispute of payments leaving them open to the odd thrashing. Their gung-ho approach to playing also londs itself to goals in what is generally a low scoring division. They are currently on an unbeaten run that stretches back to a narrow defeat to Galatasaray in November and are full of the confidence teams often need to successfully employ such an attacking tactic.
Back Sivasspor Draw No Bet at 3.4 with Coral.
No comments:
Post a Comment