Good morning all and I hope you all enjoyed the Xmas/New Year break? Those of you that follow me on the Twitter @TopTopTips will know that it's not been a stellar punting period, there's been a couple of losses incurred. However, it is always a difficult period with the matches limited and the short gaps between producing more shocks in general.
The biggest of these was without a doubt title-chasing Man Utd losing at home to relegation favourites Blackburn Rovers. As I have carped on about all season I have had my doubts about the strength of this United side, and in particular the midfield. There are at least five sides with better midfield's than Utd this season and combine that with Rooney having another period where he looks like a pub player and it spells trouble. The loss to Blackburn didn't include Rooney, but Monday nights loss to Newcastle did. If anything this was even more embarrassing as it came with every fit first team player restored and Newcastle made it look easy at times. With no Vidic the defence can be added to the midfield and attack as currently massively underperforming. Similarly Chelsea have struggled, somehow contriving to lose from 1-0 up at home to a poor Villa side then having to snatch victory at Wolves. Man City looked in second gear beating Liverpool this week and will now fancy their chances of maintaining, and possibly, extending their lead at the top of the Premier League.
Music comes from In The Red with Dear Pride.
FA Cup 3rd Round.
I'm not generally a cup match backer as there is plenty of other football to bet on without having to worry about what team sides will put out in a cup match. However comma if it is your thing then I think Crawley, Barnsley, Swindon and MK Dons may well avoid defeats to higher opposition. In Crawley's case they will most likely be highly motivated to again show how far they have come in league football against a struggling Bristol City who have more pressing worries with staying in the Championship. For similar reason I would take on Swansea, QPR and Bolton away at Barnsley, Swindon and MK Dons respectively. All should really be more keen to cement Premier League places and rest players after a tiring Xmas period. My money will be invested elsewhere though this weekend.
Malaga v Atletico Madrid, Saturday 2100
Spain's sides have mostly played in the Copa Del Rey this week so they have had a bit of match action after a short Xmas break. Malaga hosted Real Madrid and managed to go into half time 2-0 ahead before succumbing to a second half onslaught and lose 3-2. As much as they might have hoped to hold on for a famous victory, there is no shame in losing to an exceptional Madrid side. I look at the first half performance as an indicator that the break has done them good and they have hit the ground running. They made some clever signings over the summer and at times have looked like they could move to the position of best of the rest given more time.
Atletico Madrid have as usual been a complete shambles most of the time, interspersed with the odd fantastic performance. The signing of Falcao from Porto initially looked like it would be a masterstroke, but his form has plummeted along with that of the rest of the side. After exiting the Copa Del Rey before Xmas the club finally parted ways with manager Manzano which they will hope will inject some fight back into what, on paper at least, looks a decent squad of players. The lack of cup football this week though means they will possibly be a bit leggier than Malaga and I would fancy them to take a few games before any improvements are obvious.
Back Malaga at 2.25 with William Hill.
Villarreal v Valencia, Sunday 1700
As I mentioned a numerous amount of times in the first half of the season, Villarreal look like their recent years of triumph and achievement are coming to an end. The scouting system that unearthed some brilliant players from South America seems to have slowed up somewhat in the last couple of years and most of the best players have either aged or left. Those like Guiseppe Rossi and Nilmar who provide much of the flair and goals have been injured for a lot of the season so far and Rossi is unlikely to appear at all. The back up is simply no better than the bottom half of the division, which is where they'll likely end up sadly.
Valencia have shown that even though they have had to sell their best players every summer due to the incredible debt they ran up earlier in the century they can still compete. Obviously compete is relative, they wont be likely to seriously challenge Real or Barca over a whole season, but they can give them a match and are far better than most of the rest of the Primera. This season Roberto Soldado has shown himself to be a possible international striker, especially with Villa and Torres both struggling with injuries and form. There can be no better incentive for him to continue scoring than the carrot of Euro 2012 this summer. Valencia managed a 1-0 win in the cup last night and with Villarreal similar to Atleti in missing that practise I would fancy them to start back with a win.
Back Valencia at 2.4 with Victor Chandler.
Udinese v Cesena, Sunday 1100
In something of a shock in Serie A Udinese had the chance to go into Xmas top of the table ahead of the likes of Juventus and AC Milan. That they didn't should take nothing away from a wonderful start to the season by them. Having lost the spine of last season's successful side many expected them to revert back to an upper mid-table side, but they have confounded expectations by at times looking even better. Much of this is down to the organisation throughout the side leading to a tight defence and then the evergreen Di Natale still scoring the goals to win them games. He can no longer be expected to play every match, but when he does they normally win. This is especially true at home where they have still not lost in eight matches, scoring fourteen and only conceding two.
Cesena have sadly looked like relegation fodder in most matches so far. With only three wins from sixteen matches and an even more damning eight goals scored they look in real trouble. They have somehow managed to conjure up two away wins, but they in a great little run where all three wins were achieved in four matches. That looks over again now and they will certainly not want to visit a rested Udinese side.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.76 with Victor Chandler.
Palermo v Napoli, Sunday 1945
What should be an entertaining match late Sunday evening comes from Palermo with them hosting Napoli. Both sides have come through in recent years and shown themselves to be capable of beating anyone on their day as well as challenging for Europa and Champions League spots. One of the oddities of the first half if the Italian season was Palermo's curious home and away form. At home they have only lost one of seven matches and won the remaining six whilst scoring sixteen and conceding seven. Away from home they still haven't won and had not even scored before the last match. Whilst they may have lost star man Pastore over the summer they have still kicked on in his absence and in Ilicic and Abel Hernandez they still possess very talented attackers.
Napoli have possibly let their league form slip at some points with their eyes more focussed on the progression they achieved in the Champions League at Man City's expense. They are a counter attacking side who happily sit back and soak up pressure before striking at pace with Lavezzi, Hamsik and Cavani able to cause any side defensive nightmares. To their already talented side they have added the incredibly gifted Chilean Eduardo Vargas. He will definitely be some player and could well already be causing problems by the time they face Chelsea in the Champions League. I see goals in this one, with Palermo a generally attacking outfit also giving up space for Napoli to counter.
Back over 2.5 Goals at 2.1 with Bet365.
Istanbul BB v Tranzonspor, Saturday 1400
Istanbul BB are another side that have come up trumps for us often this season as they have been very good at home for the most part . They were soundly beaten 4-1 by Gala on Tuesday, but they were right in it at 1-1 at half time before losing a man to a red card and eventually getting soundly beaten. This result should probably be discounted, or at least put down to their less impressive away form. At home they are still unbeaten, but have drawn five of eight. Goals have been an issue, as they often are for all except the big three from Istanbul, and they struggle to score enough to kill teams off.
Trabzon have had the Champions League as a distraction from the Super Lig and it shows in their sixth place at present. They scored a late goal at home to Manisaspor on Tuesday to snatch a 2-1 win, but again struggled for long periods. They may well need a couple of signings in January to freshen the side up if they still harbour hopes of a challenge at the peak of the table. At present though they have drawn five of eight away and similarly to Istanbul BB they have struggled for goals, relying on Yilmaz far too much.
Back the Draw at 3.2 with Coral.
Samsunspor v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
Again to the Super Lig and it's my pre-season tips for the title Gala travelling to struggling Samsunspor. Samsun did get a decent result in the week by drawing away at Gencler, but they really need to start winning some matche sif they hope to pull away from the relegation spots. They have only concede thirteen goals in eighteen matches so far, but there problem has been scoring with only sixteen registered and this leading to them being unable to covert draws into wins. They have won two from eight at home and drawn four. They have also been behind at half time in three of those matches.
Gala are continuing their march to the title at present. They opened the New Year with a 4-1 victory over Istanbul BB, which they may have struggled with at times but will give them renewed confidence in the final result. They have looked absolutely brilliant at times and seem to have really hit their stride lately. They have only lost two matches all season and their goal difference of +19 is miles better than anyone else. This is in part due to their excellent away form, they have only conceded three goals in nine matches so far. They have led at half time in four of those matches and in present form I fancy them to do the same here.
Back Galatasaray/Galatasaray HT/FT at 2.6 with William Hill.
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