A more profitable weekend for followers last time out than we have had for a while now. With Manchester City also coming in on Monday as tipped on Twitter it made it a successful few days. For those that do now follow @TopTopTips on Twitter, you will have also made some money from laying Chelsea midweek at a frankly ludicrous 1.5 at home to Newcastle. Whilst Newcastle had been well beaten by Wigan last weekend, they are still the fourth best side in the country this season and should have been far shorter in odds.
The Manchester derby was an obvious bet as soon as the teamsheets were made available to us. Sir Alex Ferguson had clearly sent a team out in the desperate hope he could pack the midfield and play out a bore draw. This had the desired effect in that it made the match no fun for anyone hoping for a goalfest, but sadly left United unable to mount any sort of comeback once they fell behind. A midfield of Park, Scholes, Giggs, Carrick and Nani was outplayed by City for the most part, and none of them could compete with Yaya Toure's athleticism. The league will now come down to whether City can hold their nerve and win both their remaining fixtures to take the title.
Music comes from The Cribs with Hey Scenesters!
FA Cup Final 2012
Chelsea v Liverpool, Saturday 1715
Two teams who have disappointed for long spells this season meet in the FA Cup final looking to end the season on a high. Chelsea looked awful under Andre Villas Boas and have been much improved since Di Matteo took charge. I still think this is due to the senior players taking it upon themselves to oust the man who was looking to the future of the club without them in it. The marked improvement of messrs Lampard and Drogba in particular of late would seem to back this conspiracy theory. But, for us betting the reason isn't hugely important as they are now raising their game for the big matches and this is certainly one of those. The Champions League Semi Final against Barcelona should be a turning point in their season after the amazing performance over two legs in holding them off for the most part. Losing to Newcastle midweek was a setback, but Newcastle have proven what a good side they are and it took two brilliant goals to beat a stubborn Chelsea side.
Liverpool have appeared in the column numerous times due to their wretched season in the league. They have already won the Carling Cup and are now looking to also take the FA Cup and cling to the belief that this means they're a decent side. Anyone who has watched them as a neutral should be able to see where their problems lie. They lack a competent, clinical finisher, they have no pace an little width and they have overspent so much that there probably is not a lot of hope of another big spending summer to rectify the mistakes. Whilst Andy Carroll has not been brilliant, the worst signings have to be Stewart Downing and Charlie Adam. Brought in for a combined thirty odd million, they have added nothing at all to Liverpool so far and look unlikely to any time soon. It goes without saying that Liverpool have managed to eke out performances in one off cup matches this season, but if Chelsea play anything like to their potential, they win this easily.
Back Chelsea at 2.5 with BlueSq.
Aston Villa v Tottenham, Sunday 1400
Villa have been absolutely horrendous this season and unfortunately it now looks likely that they will survive and give everyone another dose of their hopelessness under McCleish next season. His tactics of playing with one forward and every other man behind the ball is a waste of many talented players in their squad as well as dreadful for those unfortunate enough to support the club. The news this morning is that about five Villa players have been fined for an incident in a nightclub and that will surely demoralise an already lacking squad. I would imagine now they're safe they will probably just be giving up and trying to forget this season ever happened.
Spurs have been portrayed as now being back in form as the England managers job has been given to Roy Hodgson and they beat Bolton away on Wednesday. Truth is that they were again far from their early season form, and they were playing a Bolton side who may still yet go down this season. I keep repeating that Tottenham's tail-off is for two main reasons, both of which are mainly down to Harry Redknapp. First is the ridiculous lack of rotation of players, leaving key men like Luka Modric absolutely knackered and unable to dictate games. The second is his lack of tactical instruction. This is often said to be a positive when things are going well, but should also be used as a criticism when they aren't. Gareth Bale seems to now think he is allowed a free role, when his attributes really only suit him to being on the wing, and Redknapp should have instructed him to stay wide or left him out. He keeps popping up in central areas and getting in everyone's way. I think they will still have far too much for a Villa side playing as they are.
Back Tottenham at 1.9 with BetFred.
Atletico Madrid v Malaga, Saturday 2000
Atleti have had their usual ups and downs this season, but they can still win the Europa League and qualify for Europe once again via the league. Early on after appointing Diego Simeone as manager midway through the season they began to keep clean sheets and look a lot more organised. This has now slightly altered with them reverting to type, especially away from home. At home they go ten wins, five draws and three losses with thirty four scored and only sixteen conceded. This really is some record and is a huge part of why they sit in sixth despite some very disappointing reslts away from home. With the likes of Falcao in the side they always pose a goal threat, and most of the players should be playing with a Europa League final starting XI place in mind. This should motivate them enough to get another win in their last home match of the season.
Malaga are the leagues richest team outside of the big two. They were bought out with oil money two years ago and have so far been fairly sensible in investing in the side with no ridiculous signings so far. Manuel Pellegrini has again showed what a good manager he is in taking all the new players and moulding them into a good side, but sadly they are still inconsistent. They are clinging on to the last Champions League spot in Spain at present, but looked dreadful against Barcelona in midweek. Whilst Barca are obviously a brilliant side, Malaga made things far too easy for them with terrible defending at times. Away from home they go four wins, four draws and ten losses. This is the main reason they have been unable to solidify their fourth spot and are still worried about clinging on two matches from the end of the season. I think they may well struggle again in this one.
Back Atletico Madrid at 2.05 with BetVictor.
Atalanta v Lazio, Sunday 1400
Atalanta are comfortable in midtable this season and will be very happy with that. They are a very well drilled side who base their game upon a tight defence and trying to nick a goal to win matches. They have been particularly good at home where that approach has seen them ship only thirteen goals in eighteen matches. Their home record in full is won nine, drawn six and only lost three. Whilst they were beaten by AC Milan in midweek, they held them to a single goal at the San Siro until very late on when they added a second. In the two matches before that though they had beaten both Chievo and Fiorentina to nil at home to again back up how good they are at home.
Lazio's season has seen them challenging for a Champions League spot, but they now look like injuries will see them fall short. The main problem has been that they concede far too many away from Rome. In their eighteen away matches they have only drawn two, whilst winning seven and losing nine. They have scored twenty six, but conceded a whopping thirty one. This has made them very unpredictable most weekends. However comma with Henrique and Klose missing at present it is far more likely they'll struggle to score. They are without a win in seven and worth taking on here.
Back Atalanta at 2.6 with Ladbrokes.
Udinese v Genoa, Sunday 1400
Udinese have not featured so much in my tips in the second half of the season. This has been due to them struggling with a long season and a small squad taking effect. They look a far more threatening side when Antonio Di Natale is playing, but due to his age and bad knees he is having to pick and choose his matches now. They currently sit in fourth, level on points with Napoli, but needing to score a lot to give themselves the best chance of qualifying for the Champions League in third spot. In eighteen home matches they have won twelve, drawn six and only lost two whilst scoring thirty one and only conceding thirteen. They should beat a struggling Genoa side with ease.
Genoa have managed to slip a long way this season. Their chairman's policy of selling off every half decent player they have had in the last five years has unsurprisingly left them lacking in quality. Their ultras halted a match last weekend to have it out with the players about their poor performances. They still lost that match 4-1 and have then lost the nest two matches before finally getting a win in midweek at home to Cagliari. They have been very poor away from home with a record of won only two, drawn three and lost thirteen. They have scored twenty one, but have conceded a huge forty three to leave them staring at relegation still.
Back Udinese -1.0 Asian Handicap at 2.13 with BetVictor.
Eskisehirspor v Istanbul BB, Sunday 1300
In the Europa League play-offs in Turkey it is still all to play for with two matches remaining. Eskisehirspor sit in third in the four team mini table, but can go ahead of Istanbul BB if they beat them in this. They have shown in the last two seasons that their home form is great and that they are adept at shutting teams down and not conceding. In their four play-off matches so far they have conceded the least of all their fellow competitors with just five, and only one of those at home. They drew the same match in Istabul in their first play-off match and they should fancy their chances of going one better as they have also scored in every match.
Istanbul BB currently sit top of the mini league, but there is only three points between top and bottom. They have conceded in every match so far though and must be worried about that statistic. They got a great win at Sivasspor in midweek with a ninetieth minute goal from Pierre Webo deciding it. They were again exposed numerous times though and against a team who can keep them quiet as well as Eskisehir can they may well struggle. They also keep picking up bookings and that lack of discipline will not help if Eskisehir can frustrate them.
Back Eskisehirspor at 2.1 with SportingBet.
Trabzonspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1700
The title deciding mini league looked like it had hotted up after Galatasaray failed to beat Trabzonspor at home on Wednesday evening. However comma Fener failed to capitalise and lost to Besiktas on Thursday to leave them again three points of Gala on top with two matches to play. First up is Trabzon. The match fixing scandal that was exposed after Fener beat Trabzon to the Super Lig last season has understandably given extra needle to matches between the two sides now. Trabzon will know that a loss in this match for Fener will almost certainly hand the title to Gala and should be extra motivated to do that. With Buruk Yilmaz also likely to return to the line up they have every chance.
As mentioned Fener will be extremely disappointed to have lost to Besiktas in midweek. They have missed key man Alex Da Silva the last couple of matches and are now also waiting on the fitness of star striker Moussa Sow. They really do not have anyone who can step into the side with the class and quality of either of those and if they are missing they will really struggle again. Even with both of them playing though they will find it very hard to beat a Trabzon side who have been very good at home all season. Trabzon have only lost at home once since xmas and the tow sides drew 1-1 a few weeks ago in the regular season. A repeat of that is not unlikely.
Back Trabzonspor Draw No Bet at 2.1 with SportingBet.
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