This weekend sees most major European leagues wrapping things up for this season. Some things are already decided, Spain has crowned Real Madrid, Italy has Juventus and Germany Dortmund. There are also numerous teams relegated already, but there are still things to be decided. This is helpful for us as it is very difficult to have any certainty about matches where they are all but important to those playing in them.
Midweek has been very slow. We have seen Liverpool gain some sort of revenge on Chelsea for the FA Cup final by beating them 4-1 on Tuesday night. Chelsea naturally rested a number of players with the Champions League final in mind, and those that did play looked like they wanted to be anywhere else. John Terry in particular had an appalling match and has now been made as short as 1.25 to be left out of England's Euro 2012 squad. This is not entirely down to his fading powers, but is also with the consideration that with a charge of racial abuse still hanging over him as well as his generally odious personality it might not be brilliant for squad harmony if he went. Personally I would see it as no loss.
The other match of importance was the Europa League final in Bucharest on Wednesday night. I personally thought it would be an entertaining match, and for the most part it was. I also thought Bilbao were slightly over-priced, but unfortunately they lost to a Falcao inspired Atletico Madrid side. The Colombian has had another brilliant season both domestically and in Europe, probably pushing him high up the list for the likes of Man City and Chelsea this summer. Personally I think either Falcao or Cavani of Napoli would make City almost the complete side in England and would not be surprised at all to see one of them replace Edin Dzeko. Atleti won the match 3-0 and unfortunately for Bilbao nothing went right for them in attacking positions. After completely re-inventing themselves under Marcelo Bielsa and thrilling all of us this season it was a sad end to their campaign. Hopefully the side wont be completely broken up over the summer as another season should probably see them really gelling into an even better team.
Music comes from Social Distortion with their cover of Ring Of Fire.
Norwich v Aston Villa, Sunday 1500
Norwich end their impressive season with a home send off against Villa. They have been one of the more profitable sides to follow this season as the bookmakers seemed to consistently feel that they were soon to be found out of their depth. This, it turns out, was simply not the case. They have more than belonged in the countries top league this season, and the fact very few of their players had any experience at that level has been a good thing. Players like Grant Holt and Steve Morison have had to scrap their way up from many levels below and have relished the opportunity to perform against the best the country has to offer. They again upset the odds to draw 3-3 at Arsenal last Saturday and Holt again showed what a threat he can be. Premier League defenders do not generally like dealing with such a physical presence and willing runner. Villa will not be looking forward to this.
Villa extended their run of zero wins to thirteen matches by drawing 1-1 at home to Spurs last weekend. I have lamented Alex McCleish's tactics here before, but it is worth repeating. He sets his sides up almost as if a draw is a win to him, there is almost no intent to attack at all. They have no less than 7 men behind the ball at all times starving the opposition of space and chances and simply try to occasionally lump a ball at their forwards or try for a set-piece. This approach will see them relegated next season, I have no doubt about that. The players are even speaking out now and if they stop putting in the effort they'll be doomed. They have stayed up now and I would expect them to slack of now they are assured of another season, Norwich should capitalise on this.
Back Norwich at 2.25 with BoyleSports.
Manchester City v QPR, Sunday 1500
This Sunday sees the Manchester clubs kicking off knowing a City win will all but assure them of their first title in 44 years. I must admit that I would prefer to see them win it to United. This is as I would hate to see United rest on their laurels with the current squad, I'd like to see some new faces brought in. I would also like to see who City could attract if they had the fact they are champions to use as a selling point. Not supporting a Premier League side these are both selfish points from the view of a neutral onlooker! City have been in awesome form of late and that seems to largely be down to Yaya Toure dominating games for them. It seems Mancini has recognised there are very few midfields that can cope with him when he marauds through towards goal. This faith has been rewarded with three goals in his last two matches, and decisive goals at that.
QPR will be portrayed as trying to gain some form of 'revenge' for Mark Hughes sacking from City two years ago. The fact the media still seem upset baffles me personally, Mancini has improved City immeasurably and therefore improved the league too. QPR have been absolutely dire away from Loftus Road this season, even after their January spending spree. They have managed to get right down to the wire in terms of fighting to stay up, but even this turnaround has not covered away matches. They might have it all to play for, but they will lose this and be looking out for other results whilst City celebrate the title.
Back Yaya Toure to score anytime at 2.87 with Stan James.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich, Saturday 1900
Dortmund wrapped up the Bundesliga title a couple of weeks ago now and have the chance to compound Bayern's misery by doing the double by beating them. They have been on a frankly sensational record-breaking run unbeaten in the league that now stretches back to before the winter break. Whilst they can sometimes look like scoring is a challenge when the players are tired, they do look unbeatable at the moment. This should not be a problem anyway with them having had a full week to rest after last weekends final league match. Factor in the likes of Shinji Kagawa and Robert Lewandowski possibly playing in their last match, and they should not lack any motivation to win the cup.
Bayern have not looked anything like the side that has made the Champions League final for spells this season. They can beat a side by six one week, but then struggle for goals the next. The trick to bettering them seems to be in holding out for as long as possible and watching them grow frustrated. The longer it takes for the first goal, it seems a lot less likely it will ever come. Mario Gomez might have scored a bucketful this season, but he is the definition of a flat-track-bully. He has no outstanding qualities I can see and will not be the man to win you a game on his own. They also have the vastly more important matter of the Champions League final against Chelsea the following weekend so I would not be surprised if they do not treat this as the be all and end all it might otherwise have become.
Back Borussia Dortmund at 2.9 with BetVictor.
Fenerbahce v Galatasaray, Saturday 1700
It has all come down to the last match of the season in the Super Lig. And what a match for the decider to be! It will be Gala's title if they avoid defeat, but Fener know winning will have them come from a long way back to snatch it on the last day. Fener have been resurgent lately, and they have had to do it without their two best players in Alex Da Souza and Moussa Sow. Alex is club captain and will go down as a legend at the club having stayed and provided flair and goals from midfield for a number of years now. Moussa Sow has again shown that a class act will find goals easy to come by in what can be a very defensively naive league at times. There is a small chance Alex will return for this match, but Sow will most likely be missing, robbing them of their biggest goal threat by far.
Gala really only have themselves to blame for the title going this far. They have managed to let Fener back in with back to back terrible results. None more so than last week when they were 2-0 up and coasting against Besiktas, only to let them back in the match for a 2-2 draw. This has been blamed on the absence of their hugely influential manager Fatih Terim being absent from the dugout due to suspension and he will return for this match after serving his ban. They have the best team in the league by a large margin and if they settle early should be able to get the draw they need. They also proved that they can react to adversity when they came back from 2-0 at Fener earlier in the season to snatch a 2-2 draw.
Back the Draw at 3.5 with Bet365.
Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Saturday 1400
Istanbul BB v Bursaspor, Saturday 1400
In the Europa League play-off it is still all to play for heading into the last matches. So far all bar one home match have been won by the home teams in this mini league, and I see no reason for that not to again be the case. Eskisehir will definitely make it tough for Sivass, but their relentless attacking should breach Eskisehir's mean defence at some point with them desperate for a win.
Back Sivasspor at 3.0 with BetVictor.
Back Istanbul BB at 2.1 with Coral.
Sorry it is so short this week. Time constraints and a lack of team news means I'm not desperate to stick my neck on the line for any other matches at present. Be sure to follow @TopTopTips on the Twitter though as more tips may be posted as the weekend progresses.
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