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We have now settled on a format to include a selection of Premier League games, some European matches and some musical recommendations. The musical recommendations are probably not the blogs best feature! If you would like me to include anything else or suggest changes then please get in touch via the Comments section.
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Thursday, 30 August 2012

Come On Now...

Last weekend got off to a great start on Saturday, before Sunday's selections completely spoilt things for us. As long as Roberto Mancini insists on playing three at the back when he clearly doesn't have the personnel Manchester City will be vulnerable and Liverpool were unlucky not to beat them. Our Spanish experiment also did not reap rewards, although personally I layed the bet for a smaller win when Sociedad went behind. This is something I would encourage everyone to do now that Betfair is available to lay selections. If your bet gets ahead and the price shrinks drastically I would advise pulling out at least your stake unless you are extremely confident.

Week 2:

Swansea v West Ham - Up 6.45 points.

Southampton v Wigan - Lose 2 points.

Liverpool v Man City - Lose 2 points.

Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo - Lose 1 point.

Pescara v Inter Milan - Lose 2 points.

Stuttgart v Wolfsburg - Lose 2 points.

Orduspor v Eskisehirspor - Up 5.2 points.

Besiktas v Galatasaray - Lose 2 points.

Leaving us marginally up with a positive of 0.65 points to the good! It is still hard to pick being the early season so hopefully we'll see this creeping up as we learn more about this seasons sides.

Music from Dave Hause with Come On Kid.

Swansea v Sunderland, Saturday 1500


Swansea made West Ham look every inch a recently promoted side last Saturday with another impressive victory, this time 3-0 at home. As I mentioned the first weekend, they are very much a side that could go either way this season and fortunately for them it looks like Michu has settled right in and they have added the impressive Ki Sueng Hueng from Celtic and probably Pablo Hernandez from Valencia to add to the La Liga group of players now forming. I think Laudrup's admission he has simply carried on with the approach Swansea had and merely adding players he feels are an upgrade to it is a wise idea. Managers often come in to a decent side and attempt too much too soon to the detriment of the team as a whole. Where Gyllfi Sigurdsson left a whole after his loan last year, Michu steps in, Joe Allen is replaced by Hueng and it looks like Scott Sinclair is now being replaced by Hernandez. All those leaving are good players, but their replacements have every chance of being at least as good. I think Swansea could see a repeat of Laudrup's Getafe success rather than his spell at Mallorca.

Sunderland have also made a few forays into the transfer market under Martin O'Neill. My personal opinion of O'Neill is that he's a great man manager hampered by a lack of guile in the transfer market. He often sticks to players from within the British Isles and will pay over the top fees for this experience presumably he thinks they bring. This window has seen Steven Fletcher, a perfectly good striker, somehow bought for an astonishing £13million! I realise you know he has got goals in the Premier League, but when you also factor in some high wages it's hard to see it being value for money unless he far exceeds previous endeavours. As with all O'Neill sides they are built on solid foundations and will not be found committing many players forward apart from set pieces. This will see Seb Larsson have a key role with his great deliveries and they will no doubt become much more solid than under previous manager Steve Bruce. I think they'll be found wanting against a side willing to go at them with pace though and Swansea fit that description from what I've seen so far.

Back Swansea at 2.25 with BODOG. 2 points.

West Brom v Everton, Saturday 1500


Two other sides starting well this season are West Brom and Everton. West Brom appointed former assistant manager Steve Clarke as manager over the summer and I must admit I am still not sold on that move. I don't think there's an awful lot of form for long time assistants like Clarke moving up into the big role and think there may yet be trouble ahead. Having said that, they were excellent in beating Liverpool on the opening weekend and took a well deserved draw at Tottenham last weekend after falling behind. Keeping hold of players like Yusuf Mulumbu and Peter Odemwingie has been a huge boost and the addition of Romelu Lukaku on loan from Chelsea looks shrewd as he has come on and bullied the opposition in both matches so far. He looks every inch the 'little Drogba' he was billed as when in Belgium. There's definitely goals in the side, although with a not exactly quick back line they could be exposed at times against good teams.

Everton have probably been the most impressive side so far this season, especially taking into account their traditional slow starts. An awful lot of this can probably be put down to an attacking trident of Marouane Fellaini, Steven Pienaar and Nikola Jelavic all firing from the off. They also signed forward Kevin Mirallas from Greece and he picked up two goals and two assists on his debut against Leyton Oreint in the cup. If you add him into the side and he continues in that vein it is easy to fancy Everton for a possible Champions League push, even if their small squad will make it unlikely to stay the course. David Moyes must have wondered whether he was in the right job at times with the monetary restrictions he works under and at times the squad seemingly becoming tired, but this should give him a real boost to have a special season. I'm not sure they win this, but I think there will definitely be goals. Everton have attacked in both matches so far and I don't see why that would stop against West Brom.

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.1 with Ladbrokes. 2 points.

Liverpool v Arsenal, Sunday 1330


Two sides who have not had the best of starts meet at Anfield on Sunday. Liverpool were hopeless against West Brom in their first Premier League match before being unlucky to lose to champions Man City last weekend. It seems like it will take time to move to the passing game Brendan Rodgers wants to use and it also looks like he'd rather use younger, easier to influence players to implement it. Both Raheem Sterling and Jonjo Shelvey looked good against Man City and they are probably better options for the passing and pressing than Charlie Adam and Stewart Downing. The benching of Adam, Downing and Andy Carroll is an indication that names and price tags mean little if your performances are not up to scratch. Joe Allen looked good in both matches with his energy and not giving the ball away and he could well become their key man starting all their moves. Steven Gerrard was allowed the option to ping balls into corners by Man City's strange three at the back and I don't see him having that luxury against Arsenal's more traditional back four. This could lead to something of a stalemate.

Arsenal have strangely looked brilliant in defence, but not offered anything in attack so far. They have played out two 0-0 draws so far with Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud failing to sparkle for them yet. Santi Cazorla has looked a good signing and if Podolski and Giroud do click then there could be goals to come. The move to promote Steve Bould to assistant with a particular role in shaping the defence seems to be working so far though. Stoke's physical approach and aerial bombardment did not seem to worry Arsenal last weekend as they have in previous seasons and they should be able to cope with a Liverpool attack that has not really been firing either so far. Laurent Kocielny looks a great player up against skilful forwards so he will presumably be assigned to Luis Suarez and that battle should play a large part in the overall outcome.

Lay Liverpool at 2.05 on Betfair. 2 points.

Mallorca v Real Sociedad, Saturday 2100


This weekends pick for our La Liga experiment again involves Real Sociedad. This weekend they travel to a Mallorca side again put together on a shoestring and expecting a battle to stay afloat. Sociedad were thumped by Barcelona on week one, but rallied to get a 2-1 victory at home to Celta last weekend. They also secured the extending of star man Griezmann's contract this week and should get a boost from that. I again feel Mallorca are too short so let's lay them for a point.

Lay Mallorca at 2.1 with Betfair. 1 point.

Udinese v Juventus, Sunday 1700


The big match in Serie A this weekend is probably Juventus at an Udinese side that pushed them for the title for the majority of last season. Udinese again lost key players over the summer, Kwadwo Asamoah and Mauricio Isla even moved to Juventus, but have started off well as they seemingly are always able to. It is something of a marvel that they can keep losing one seasons star men and simply promote the next lot off the production line like nothing has changed. They opened their season with a 2-1 loss to a much improved Fiorentina side who will benefit hugely from the return of Stefan Jovetic who scored their injury time winner. They have looked good against Braga however despite eventually being knocked out of the Champions League at the qualifying stages. They are certainly not the long shots they are priced at this week despite the definite strength of Juventus.

Juventus added numerous players over the summer to build a squad that is the envy of the rest of the league. With AC Milan letting most of their big names leave and Inter again in upheaval, it could only really be argued Napoli have improved significantly to provide them with a challenge for the title. The biggest obstacle will probably be the ten month touchline ban manager Antonio Conte has for not reporting match fixing from a few years ago. Juventus did end last season unbeaten, but the fact they didn't romp the league was because they refused to commit to winning away matches and settled for draws as much as possible. Until I know any different I don't fancy them at these sort of prices against decent opponents.

Lay Juventus at 1.8 on Betfair. 2 points.

Werder Bremen v Hamburg, Saturday 1430


Werder opened up last weekend by narrowly losing away to joint title favourites Borussia Dortmund 2-1 on Friday night. It took new signing Marco Reus to get Dortmund the win and Werder were more than a match for them most of the ninety minutes. Werder have always been something of a gung-ho side in a gung-ho league. The mantra seems to have definitely been to simply score more than the opposition with much less attention paid to improving their defence. It's hardly been ineffective as the have always made a run at European placings, but they attempted to remedy the problem last season before going back to their attacking style after an initial trial period of the new tactics was not successful for them. They were also far better at home last season than away and will fancy their chances in this match.

Hamburg were hoping to show signs of improvement on their fiftieth season in the Bundesliga, but last weeks performance made that look unlikely. Since Martin Jol and Rafa Van Der Vaart left a few years ago they were hardly world beaters, but there never seemed a threat of relegation. Last summers appointment of ex-Chelsea man Frank Arnesen in a senior role, with a huge say in transfer policy, has been a huge mistake they really need to remedy. Bringing in copious ex-Chelsea reserves has panned out as I predicted last season in that they are nowhere near the required level of a top league. It is going to be a very long, disappointing season for Hamburg fans in my opinion.

Back Werder Bremen at 1.83 with Stan James. 3 points.

Karabukspor v Besiktas, Saturday 1830


Karabukspor were good for us on the opening weekend by avoiding defeat at home to a Trabzonspor side who have looked perfectly good other than that result. They narrowly lost 2-1 late on away at promoted Kasimpasa last weekend, but this should be read with the caveat that Kasimpasa have invested very wisely over the summer and are expected to have no trouble whatsoever in staying in the Super Lig. Karabuk are a hard side to beat at the best of times and like many in Turkey they simply lack a proven goalscorer to move them from mid-table to a European push. That doesn't look to be there this season, but they'll give much better sides a very good game at home.

Besiktas managed a thrilling 3-3 draw last weekend at home to title favourites Galatasaray to cost us our investment on that match, but they showed all their familiar failings in doing so. They're the most hit and miss of the big sides in Turkey and their big name, high wage players can often be found wanting away at sides willing to give them a battle. There's plenty of flair in the team, but very little grit and this is what is really holding them back, certainly not a lack of investment. This will either be a goalfest or Karabuk will frustrate the life out of Besiktas and I'll take a chance on that scenario.

Back the Draw at 3.25 with SportingBet. 1 point.

Sivasspor v Fenerbahce, Sunday 1600


Another match up with the away team installed as favourites is Sivasspor hosting Fenerbahce. Sivass opened with a very good away win at Gaziantepspor, taking it 1-0. Gaziantep are always hard to beat at home and Sivass are somewhat notorious for their flaky away form and lack of defensive strategy so this was a very encouraging start to the season. They then went on to draw 3-3 at home with Mersin Idman Yurdu last weekend to show that they are still capable of anything! Mersin were the best side away from home in the Super Lig last season aside from the big four and this should somewhat temper the despondency. Sivass have also seemingly been very able to raise their game when the big sides visit and I'd expect a very tough match for Fener here.

Fenerbahce have not started their season at all well. They exited the Champions League qualifiers to Spartak Moscow despite a very creditable 2-1 defeat away from home in the first leg. That Spartak were also missing star man Welliton in the second leg does not reflect well on the Istanbul side at all. They have been held to a draw by promoted Elazigspor on the opening weekend before running out 3-0 winners at home to a Gaziantepspor side who are always much better at home, as mentioned above. This exit of the Champions League may well benefit them in their search to regain the Super Lig title, but it could also provider something of a hangover. I'm not sure Fener can't win, they certainly have the players, but I'd expect Sivass to make it difficult and certainly to score. I fancy a few goals in this one with both sides best sections certainly their attacks.

Back Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1 with William Hill. 2 points.

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