Well, hello again one and all. I've had a little break from going into any in-depth analysis and stuck to trying to get an edge on Olympic sports the bookies don't usually price up. I mention this to remind everyone that the best way to make a profit in the long term from gambling is to try and find a niche and stick to it. With sports like weightlifting a bookmaker is never going to have in it's staff a proper trader and will simply ask someone to take a look at it and have a stab at pricing the markets. This can lead to huge oversights as well as sometimes markets being left open and un-monitored when there are withdrawals having huge effects on the market. Similarly if you do your betting on the Bolivian Premier League in football and do plenty of research, you'll be a step ahead of the bookies. Just something to keep in mind if you're a serious punter.
As we are only a week away from the big kick-off in a number of European leagues now seems a good time to see what is about to bet on in the antepost markets. There can sometimes be some great prices about if you don't mind tying your money up for the best part of nine months. But, you also have to factor in that over the course of nine months many factors can come into play that could derail a bet. I would either look to bet large and look to trade your bet when the odds shorten and get out, or too just play for fun with Lucky 15's or multiples bets on each league.
We shall start with the league with the most markets, the English Premier League and will follow up with a look through the English lower divisions, then a look around Europe.
English Premier League
Outright
The bookies have this priced as a cakewalk for the two Manchester sides this season and I see little wrong in that assessment. Both Arsenal and Chelsea have made some interesting, possibly excellent, signings, but it is very hard to be confident of them being strong with such changes too early on.
Chelsea in particular have added some very promising attacking talent in what looks like a move away from the 4-3-3 that they have employed since the days of Jose Mourinho. This is not hard to understand as with Didier Drogba moved on to China and Frank Lampard being employed further back they no longer have the most potent threats that system relied upon. They may well stick to a 4-3-3, but I would expect it to be much more fluid and pacey with Eden Hazard, Oscar and Juan Mata all behind Fernando Torres at points. I also have the feeling that Roberto Di Matteo is merely a stop-gap appointment and how he will cope with this array of attacking talent is anyone's guess. We could well see them flounder, play like Ossie Ardiles era Tottenham or blow most teams away. If you think it will all go together then I would recommend taking their price as it is pretty good if that happens, personally I think I'll avoid them for now.
Arsenal and Arsene Wenger seem set on re-writing their long heralded aim of bringing through the next generation of Invincibles from within the club. With every summer seemingly seeing the previous seasons stand out player leaving it's probably understandable Wenger is turning to players at their peak already. It looks increasingly like Robin Van Persie will leave so I'm going with the assumption he does. Arsenal have always shopped in the second tier of players, even the likes of Patrick Vieira and Thierry Henry had question marks over them when joining the club. This summer has been no different with Lukas Podolski failing to sparkle outside of Cologne previously, Olivier Giroud being a late bloomer and only scoring in Ligue Un and also Santi Cazorla having never been on a 'big' clubs shopping list. I would mark them up as the same as Chelsea personally in the maybe's column, although slightly further out in the betting. Question marks will always remain over the cover the midfield provide for the defence and if they sell Alex Song and bring in Nuri Sahin then I'd be more confident with him and Mikel Arteta in the middle sitting deeper. They are probably best avoided to begin with.
Manchester United are recently very tempting to write off with obvious areas of weakness in both full back positions and still in the centre of midfield. With Alex Ferguson again complaining about a lack of value in the transfer market it is hard not to get the impression his hands are tied when it comes to a big buy. The addition of Shinji Kagawa is an excellent one in my opinion and should provide the technique and flair that Wayne Rooney shows in flashes much more regularly. I would not be shocked to see Rooney again asked to play constantly at the peak of the attack and Kagawa, Nani, Valencia and Young doing the running and crossing. Rooney can flourish in this if he is disciplined enough to stick to the task and I'd not be surprised to see him run up a large goal tally. At present there is still a gaping hole in the centre of midfield that is currently filled by a rotating cast next to Michael Carrick. The ageing legs of Ryan Giggs and the eternally disappointing Anderson are not the answer and many United fans would still like to see a destroyer in there to leave Carrick to do what he can do very well in simply recycling the ball. Having Nemanja Vidic back at centre half should not be underestimated as he is by far their best defender and missed a large part of last season when they performed pretty well anyway. I would expect to see more of Phil Jones and Chris Smalling in defence at points, with Smalling possibly replacing Rafael if he does not improve on the defensive side of his game. Left back I would still expect to see someone brought in to challenge if not replace Patrice Evra who has been poor now for eighteen months. You can't rule them out with Ferguson in charge, but I'd expect to see an improvement from City so on to them.
Manchester City have not been very active at all in the transfer market this summer with only really being linked with Robin Van Persie, who they don't really need, and Daniel Agger, who they probably do. In saying that about Agger it does seem they are being held to ransom somewhat and I'd not be surprised to see them looking elsewhere for a cheaper option as a fully fit Joleon Lescott and Vincent Kompany will still be first choice and rightly so. Defence really was City's strongest point when those two were fit, but they looked a lot less confident when Stefan Savic had to be brought in and he looked overwhelmed too. It would probably be best for all if an older international player was brought in as cover. Centre of midfield was also excellent with Gareth Barry having an excellent season and keeping Nigel De Jong out of the side with his simple passing game complimenting City's copious forwards well. Yaya Toure looked an absolute beast at points brushing players aside and marauding towards goal dangerously and I don't see why that would not continue this term. Then you have the abundance of riches in attack that City possess. You have Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli, David Silva, Edin Dzeko, Adam Johnson, Carlos Tevez and currently still Emanuel Adebayor on the books. Tevez seems a lot happier now with Aguero around and those two with Silva and Balotelli could be a brilliant forward line if they get regular time together. They can all interchange and cause havoc. The most important aspect though will be that having won the Premier League they should no longer fear it and could get even better, a frightening prospect. Roberto Mancini will be expected to do better in the Champions League this season though.
Back Manchester City at 2.37 with William Hill.
Relegation
The opposite end of the table has become something of a lottery in recent years, although usually with one stand out candidate like Portsmouth or Blackburn. This season there isn't really the luxury of that with no teams in dire straits or looking hopelessly out of their depth.
The promoted sides lead the betting as ever with Reading favourites and Southampton following them. Personally I think the Royals will be fine. The squad that won the Championship is intact and additions like Adrian Mariappa as well as the big signing of Roman Pavluychenko make them look to me a lot better than a few other sides. Southampton I worry about though. They concede goals with their attacking style and they will be further punished for that in the Premier League. They could 'do a Blackpool', but I think they'll return to the second tier. West Ham are expected to stay up by the bookies and with some decent buys and Sam Allardyce in charge I'd agree with that. They may be involved in the scrap at points, but I can't see them dropping.
You then have the likes of Norwich and Swansea who could succumb to second season syndrome under new management. Norwich have presumably appointed Chris Hughton as a steady hand and I think that's a good idea, they have also added a couple more good Championship performers such as Leeds captain Robert Snodgrass and I think this policy will see them good. Swansea have taken more of a punt on Michael Laudrup who has made some interesting signings from La Liga where he has previously worked. Michu had a fantastic season at Rayo last year and looks a potential bargain at only £2million, but they still face losing key men Joe Allen and Scott Sinclair to Liverpool and ex-manager Brendan Rodgers which would disrupt tactics a lot. They could well fall if Laudrup fails to get them going early on.
You also have the likes of Stoke and West Brom who could well be involved for opposite reasons. Stoke have become something of a mainstay in the Premier League under Tony Pulis, but murmurings are growing louder at the Britannia that their often turgid style could do with evolving. I get the impression Pulis has signed flair players like Tuncay to appease the fans, but has not trusted them thereafter to actually put in the starting line-up. If the fans turn then t could be a long season and difficult for them. West Brom have appointed eternal assistant Steve Clarke to the managers position following the departure of Roy Hodgson. I'm no fan of long time number two's being pushed into managerial positions because of the suspicion of why they have always been behind the scenes. I think this could well backfire on WBA, as good a defensive coach as Clarke is I don't see him galvanising a side.
Back Southampton at 2.37 with BetVictor.
Back Swansea at 3.25 with Boylesports.
Back West Bromwich Albion at 5.5 with BetInternet.
Top Goalscorer
The other main market for betting is always Top Goalscorer. The two men that head the market are Sergio Aguero and Wayne Rooney and again I think that's correct from the bookies. What Fernando Torres is doing so near them in price though I'm not sure. He could rediscover his touch, but I would suggest after a dire eighteen months he should be further out in the betting.
With my opinion that the two Manchester clubs are set to dominate you have to look at their main men as the only realistic bets to win outright. Sergio Aguero is in my opinion the best player in the entire division and settled straight in last season and scored plenty of goals. The main issue would be rotation with City having so many forwards and multiple priorities. Roberto Mancini must be aware he needs to get to at least the knockout stages of the Champions League this season and will surely rest Aguero where necessary to keep him ready for these matches. I still think he's a good bet, but with him the same price as Rooney I think the United man is the bet of the two. It is well documented that Rooney dislikes rotation and will play in every match that he is picked for, giving Alex Ferguson a great bonus. If, as I think, he is also simply asked to play at the peak of the attack then he should be fresher more than Aguero who will no doubt be given a much looser role at City.
After these two you have to look for an Each Way bet I think and there's a few options. I would imagine goals will be shared at Chelsea so I can't back any of them. Arsenal will presumably be looking to supply Olivier Giroud with as many chances as possible as he is much more of a target man than they have had in the past. With forwards like Lukas Podolski and Santi Cazorla added this looks the case. I certainly don't think he's a bad bet, but it might be worth watching the Gunners first couple of games to see how they line-up before diving in. I would rule out Newcastle's African pair of Papiss Cisse and Demba Ba with the African Nations on the horizon. I do like the look of the two strikers on either side of the Mersey though. Nikola Jelavic looked fantastic at the tail end of last season after moving from Rangers and I would expect him to pick up where he left off with Steven Pienaar and Steven Naismith added to supply him the ball. Fabio Borini could thrive if left alone up front for Liverpool with the likes of Luis Suarez, Stewart Downing and presumably Joe Allen asked to look for him in the box at all opportunities. The diminutive striker is, to coin a phrase, a 'fox in the box' and as that often entails will require the supply to be a success. I'd gamble on Brendan Rodgers getting him that supply.
If you want a real long odds play then I'd look at Reading's Pavel Pogbrebnyak and QPR's Djibril Cisse. I'm a believer that in this market you should look for players who are the focal points of their teams attacks and both of these fit the bill. You would imagine both will play whenever they are fit and both crucially have experience of regularly scoring in the Premier League last season.
To Win
Back Wayne Rooney at 10.0 with BetVictor.
Each Way
Back Nikola Jelavic at 31.0 with Paddy Power.
Back Fabio Borini at 41.0 with BetVictor.
Back Pavel Pogbrebnyak at 101.0 at BetVictor.
Back Djibril Cisse at 81.0 with BetFred.
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