Back in business...

Good afternoon all. After an almost six month break from the tipping I am returning to action and hoping to pick up where we left off...in profit! Those of you who also follow my TopTopTips page on Facebook will know I put up a couple of international qualifiers tips to whet the appetite. Although, sadly, they ended up slightly down. I'll endeavour to improve here with the bread and butter of league football returning. We will stick to the previous format for now, unless anyone would like to suggest improvements?

Music this week comes from Drag The River with Beautiful And Damned. Bit of a soppy one to start, but a huge personal favourite of mine.

Week 1

Aston Villa v Newcastle United, Saturday 1500

Now then, Villa were very close to relegation last season and with no 'names' signed this summer the bookmakers had them down as outside bets for relegation in the odds. I personally think they have a decent shot at a top half finish if they can avoid too many injuries. I'm a big fan of their manager, Paul Lambert, and think now he has had a season to get the players used to his style of play and add a few more to the squad they should kick on. Getting rid of some players who were very unhappy and on big salaries will also lift the mood (Darren Bent, Stephen Ireland) and getting Christian Benteke to stay on for the season is huge. I have the big Belgian down as a future leading man at a Champions League club and possible star of next summer's World Cup in Brazil for Belgium now he has cemented his place as first choice striker for them too. They've had a decent start to the season and I'd expect them to be winning matches like this.
Newcastle look a side in a mess to most observers, me included. To say they over-achieved in Alan Pardew's first season in finishing fifth is a huge understatement. There's definitely some excellent players at the club, but Pardew doesn't seem to know how to utilise them at all. With intelligent footballers like Yohan Cabaye and flair like Hatem Ben Arfa they should be a threat to most sides, but Pardew has reduced them to a long ball outfit. He seems to have set them up to simply try and grind points out with Ben Arfa occasionally chucked in to mix things up with no clear instructions as to how. This might well work on rare occasions, but won't keep them out of trouble. I think they'll again get dangerously close to relegation unless something changes drastically. I don't think the odds are miles out at all, but I think there's a little bit of value left in backing Villa.

Back Aston Villa at 2.2 with Coral. 2 points.

Southampton v West Ham, Sunday 1600

One side who I think are being massively over-fancied by the bookmakers currently are Southampton. The Saints have certainly made some interesting signings. The likes of Dejan Lovren and Victor Wanyama have been linked with much bigger sides and in that sense are a real coup for Southampton. However comma that doesn't necessarily mean they'll fit in or excel. The signing of Wanyama in particular seems strange, given that in Morgan Schneiderlin they already had one of the Premier Leagues best defensive midfielders of last season at the club. Considering they were a comfortably lower part of the league side last season they seem incredibly short priced to win matches at the moment. I'm still not certain that Mauricio Pochettino is going to take them anywhere fast.
West Ham are rapidly turning into exactly what everyone expects of a Sam Allardyce side. They are full of big, strong players in most positions, with the odd flair player chucked in to give them another option. This approach saw them steering well clear of relegation last season after promotion and it's easy to understand why the board are backing Allardyce. Whilst I'd be loathe to pay to watch an Allardyce side as a neutral, I'd be very happy to have him in charge of my side if I wanted some security. He'll make the team hard to beat first of all, before adding players that may well be undervalued at other clubs like Kevin Nolan or Stewart Downing. Nolan is an excellent player at chasing knock downs and second balls and has a great scoring record and Downing may never have been a £20million player for Liverpool, but could turn out to be an excellent £6million signing for West Ham. No team will get an easy match against West Ham.

Lay Southampton at 1.89 on Betfair. 2 points.

Inter Milan v Juventus, Saturday 1700

Inter Milan are very much a club in the midst of huge change at the moment. The owner, Massimo Moratti, looks likely to sell his controlling stake in the club after over two decades in charge to an Asian businessman. They also appointed ex-Napoli manager Walter Mazzari this summer after Andrea Strammacioni was relieved of his position. This could be seen as slightly unfortunate for Strammacioni after a huge injury list crippled his side at times last season, but Mazzari is a great appointment. He has improved every club he has managed and turned Napoli into serious league title contenders in three seasons. The raw materials at Inter are not bad at all and with two wins from two and no goals conceded he has hit the ground running. I think they may well represent value early on after a few seasons of underachievement. No European football should actually aid their league form too.
Juventus have emerged from their match-fixing enforced relegation to Serie B as by far the best side in Italy of the last two seasons. Whilst Antonio Conte can sometimes be a very conservative manager he can't be faulted in the amount he has improved the side. Italy was seen as on a very steep downward curve in their standing in European football before Juventus restored respect. Whilst they don't have the players to blow a good side away, no team will get past them without a hard match. They are strong throughout the side and have once again added more good players to the squad like Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente in attack. In Paul Pogba they also probably have the best young central midfielder in world football. This being said Conte has always been happy to leave tough away matches with a draw and I think Juve are a little short to win this with that in mind.

Lay Juventus at 2.24 on Betfair. 2 points.

Napoli v Atalanta, Saturday 1945

The only side that have really challenged Juventus domination of Serie A in the last two seasons are Napoli. After a summer where Walter Mazzari was replaced by Rafa Benitez as manager and Edinson Cavani left for Paris St Germain they have started like a rocket. The money brought in by Cavani's sale was added to and Benitez has brought in Gonzalo Higuain, Jose Callejon, Pepe Reina, Raul Albiol and Dries Mertens to an already very talented squad. With two wins from two and seven goals scored, four by Marek Hamsik, they sit top of Serie A at this very early stage. Hamsik in particular looks to be benefitting from a more advanced role under Benitez and should be the key man for the side. He's always had immense talent, but finally looks like he will fulfil it. If Juventus are not focussed or firing on all cyclinders then this could well finally be Napoli's year in Serie A.
Atalanta are something of a mainstay in Serie A now. They usually have a very good home record which keeps them away from serious trouble, but nowhere near European football either. This is no bad thing for a side that spends very little money on new players at all. Last season they were beaten in eleven of nineteen matches away from home and I see little reason why this would particularly improve. They have started the season with a win at home and a loss away and will not be looking forward to this trip to a side who are currently looking very impressive.

Back Napoli at 1.4 with William Hill. 3 points.

Malaga v Rayo Vallecano, Sunday 1800

Under previous manager Manuel Pellegrini Malaga had managed to somehow perform to a level that got them to the Champions League and not look out of place when there. This was done against a backdrop of their Middle Eastern owners deciding to withdraw their short-lived monetary support of the club and high-earners having to be constantly moved on. Two players who were largely responsible for the club's performances last season have also now left, Isco and Martin Demechelis. This has robbed the side of their leader in defence and their main threat in attack. The fact Isco is already looking a great signing at Real Madrid is a reflection of the quality he has, a huge loss to Malaga. They have started the season with a draw and two losses and I think they may well struggle to pull clear of the the relegation spots all season, such is the reduction in quality in every level of the club. They are, however, still seemingly priced as European challengers currently.
Rayo Vallecano are renowned for their attacking approach and the entertainment value they provide because of this. They finished in eight in La Liga last season and have an outside chance at again pushing for European football I think. Their manager Paco Jemez has had a full season to get the side in his style and they may well even play better for that this season. They have started with a win and two losses, but one of those losses was to an Atletico Madrid side who look increasingly like a third power in Spanish football. They are no world beaters, but look an incredibly long price against a Malaga side way past their best.

Lay Malaga at 2.0 on Betfair. 2.5 points.

Mainz 05 v Schalke 04, Saturday 1430

As those of you who regularly read the column will know, I really like betting on German football. This is probably because, even though it is certainly increasing in popularity and respect, there is still not much attention paid outside of the big names like Bayern and Dortmund. Sides like Mainz and Hannover who are regular participants in the Europa League and are more than capable of upsetting the big teams are overlooked when the odds are set. This weekend is a prime example of this, I think. Mainz have started the season well with three wins and a loss already putting them towards the top of the table. They have always had a very good home record and are currently two from two at home with five scored and two conceded. The fact they don't possess any obviously brilliant players also enables them to make the team the focus and keep hold of those players who perform so well for them. I'd expect them to again finish somewhere between fifth and eight in the Bundesliga.
Schalke have been the third side in the Bundesliga for the past two seasons largely because of the goals of Klaas Jan Huntelaar and young star Julian Draxler providing flair and assists. Huntelaar has probably now had his best years though and I can only see his powers fading, and he certainly wasn't as good last season as the season before that. Schalke got it together in the end, but they struggled at times. I don't see them particularly struggling come the end of the season, but it may be the end of the cycle for them as the thrid wheel. They've again not started the season great a win and a draw at home and two losses away so far. They've been hit for six in those two away matches and I think Mainz should be shorter in this one.

Back Mainz 05 at 2.75 with MarathonBet. 2 points.

Bayern Munich v Hannover 96, Saturday 1430

I want to make clear that this is purely a value bet and those who don't judge purely on that may want to leave alone.
Bayern Munich have strangely overhauled this summer after establishing themselves as by far Europe's best side last season in completing a Bundesliga, Dfb Pokal and Champions League treble. Their manager Jupp Heynckes had already been announced as being replaced this season by Pep Guardiola in January and so left after a hugely successful season. Whilst Guardiola was the most in-demand coach in football when he announced his return to coaching, he has only known coaching at Barcelona where he understood the club from top to bottom and fitted in. He has already gone about changing the playing style at Bayern and I think it may take a while for this to fully work, if it does. Signing Thiago Alcantara shows he wants to put in his ball-playing deep midfielders from Barcelona and this could even be done at the expense of one of Bayern's best players, Bastian Schweinsteiger. Change isn't always a bad thing, but some of this seems totally unnecessary to me and I'm not sure Guardiola and Bayern will be a great fit.
Hannover are a very similar side to Mainz, in that they regularly appear amongst the European places and give most sides a tough game. They are a well run club where players are brought in to fit an existing system so that things don't need to change too much when they are already working well. They have so far won all three matches at home and lost their sole away match. I'm not sure they'll win this match at all, but Bayern seem incredibly short in a match against a very decent side.

Lay Bayern Munich at 1.14 on Betfair. 2 points.

Trabzonspor v Karabukspor, Saturday 1830

Trabzonspor are one of the traditonal big sides in Turkey, along with the three Istanbul sides. However, in recent seasons they have steadily slipped back as they become a very mediocre side with no flair of goal threat. The main reason for this was that they built the side to supply striker Burak Yilmaz, and he delivered, but it left the side lost when he left for Galatasaray last summer. The previous flaws in the side in all areas were masked by his incredible goalscoring record and they now barely look a mid-table side. This summer has seen little done to improve that predicament. They have started the season with a tight home win and getting spanked for five goals in two away losses.
Karabukspor kicked on last season to emerge as challengers for European football and got some great results against the big sides. They kept the majority of the side together over the summer and have started the season very well. They are, in fact, the only side other than Besiktas who are still unbeaten. They have won both home matches and drawn their sole away match. They have a decent defence to build from and should have a good chance of repelling Trabzonspor.

Lay Trabzonspor at around 2.1 on Betfair. 2 points.

Sivasspor v Eskisehirspor, Sunday 1600

Two sides who I've made good money being involved with meet on Sunday. Sivasspor were a mess two years ago, but emerged last season as a much more reliable outfit. They may not score nearly as many, or be as entertaining, but they tightened up at the back and started grinding out results. It was their horrible away form last season that kept them in the lower part of the table, at home they went nine wins, five draws and three defeats. So far this season they have won their sole home match 2-0 and lost both away matches. Looks like they may well end up in a similar state as last year.
Eskisehirspor are a side who seem to always spend a good part of the season around European places before dropping away late on. They also rely on good home form to do this, but are much harder to beat away from home than Sivasspor. They were masters of the 1-0 win two seasons ago and look like they may well have reverted back to that after a less predictable first half of last season. They have started this season with a win, a draw and a loss with two goals scored and one conceded. There looks like there may well be some value in a draw to me.

Back the Draw at 3.4 with BetVictor. 2 points.